← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
Expectations For Big 12 Teams in 2026: New Coaches, Teams To Challenge Texas Tech & MORE
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- [00:00]
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- [02:23]
Chip Patterson
welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
- [02:46]
Tom Fornelli
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Canel. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere. We get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID 3 tailgate where Lane's got thoughts on the Clemson spring game where we've got college football tradition talking about a little Texas Tech and yes, Ryan, we our good friend Ryan correctly says the Big 12 the over under six and a half win conference. But was also this nice question from actually we'll get this to that in a second big 12 if Vegas is right after we get through a little bit of spring game takeaways from the weekend, we will be going through the win totals as we have in the Big ten in the sec, taking a look and saying what does that say about the season ahead? But Fernando, right as we were getting started. No, kind of, kind of one of the the topics du jour here on Monday, March 30, Fernando says good morning gentlemen. One question before your breakdown in the Big 12 is John Shire going through a Ryan Day phase parentheses pre national title, having immense talent but unable to win the big one. Love the podcast crisis.
- [04:08]
Danny Cannell
Should is he on the hot seat? Should we put him on the hot seat?
- [04:12]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, he should be pretty much. I mean how many, how many times are they going to do this? Yeah, like how did they lose to Houston last year? What were they up 10 with like two minutes left?
- [04:22]
Tom Fornelli
Well, the rules of this NCAA tournament is if you blow a 19 point lead, you get fired. Yeah, that's what we've seen in in all the 19 point leads that were blown in the 2026 NCAA tournament.
- [04:32]
Bud Elliott
That is how I think it's that North Carolina Duke rivalry runs. It's like Duke sees North Carolina blow a 19 point lead and says we
- [04:38]
Chip Patterson
got
- [04:40]
Danny Cannell
Now I will say if North Carolina was winning national championships while John Shire is blowing these leads, it might put some more pressure on him like it was for Ryan Day. But I think much like the conversation we had with Ryan Day, it was like, ah, it's just a matter of time. Like he's going to get there. You know, you're knocking on the door. It's really nice problems to have when you're back to back seasons 35 and three and you're blowing, you know, elite eight games to potentially get to a Final Four. I think Char will be fine. There's only one national champion. You were really close. It stings. I get it. It sucks. But I think that is part of the guy. It's just his next step. He just finished his fourth year. He'll be fine.
- [05:23]
Chip Patterson
Like, how many guys couldn't win the big one until they won the big one, right?
- [05:29]
Tom Fornelli
It. Almost every hall of Fame coach from the last 30 years has carried with them at some point. The can he even get it done? Can he win the big one? Questions. Some win early.
- [05:42]
Bud Elliott
Danny Hurley won it pretty quick and he's the one who just beat him.
- [05:46]
Chip Patterson
So he did he.
- [05:49]
Tom Fornelli
It took 15 years for Bill Self,
- [05:52]
Danny Cannell
16 for Coach K, 17 for War Williams, 16 for John Wooden, 22 for Jay Wright, 20 for John Calipari.
- [06:01]
Tom Fornelli
Do you remember when Roy Williams brought an actual stuffed monkey to a press conference and put it on his back and he was trying to say, I'm trying to get the monkey off my back, but he fumbled the words and he's like, I'm trying to like, jerk this monkey off my back. What?
- [06:18]
Chip Patterson
Wait, did he say like, I'm trying to jerk off this monkey on my back?
- [06:23]
Tom Fornelli
Put it just like that. He was. He was trying to say like. Like he was and he acted it out. Right? You know, it's like, hey, I've got this monkey. I'm just trying to like jerk it off my back.
- [06:31]
Bud Elliott
Everyone's like, well, here, here's something to consider. Like those coaches you mentioned that took 15, 16, 17 years to win their first national title, how many did it at the school they started coaching at? Maybe Josh Hire needs to go somewhere else to break through
- [06:48]
Tom Fornelli
Dean. I think Dean didn't win till 1982 and he got the job in 1961.
- [06:55]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, that little different era, obviously.
- [06:58]
Tom Fornelli
100% very, very different era along the way. But yeah, it's the Ryan Day John Shire connection. A lot of that we've talked about. Also while we're sitting here for in a quick basketball minute before we dive in, Tom, congratulations. I've said it to you privately. You've gotten a chance to celebrate on the Ion college basketball podcast as well. I'm glad that you called out Matt Norlander for his cowardice of running away to San Jose, not wanting to watch real basketball in person. I was a privilege for me to be able to to watch your fighting a line. I cut down nets in Houston. How are we feeling here A couple days later.
- [07:32]
Bud Elliott
Good celebrations over. Time to final four. Time to get ready for the next one.
- [07:36]
Tom Fornelli
Let's go.
- [07:37]
Bud Elliott
Act like you've been there before. Well, before we move on though, there is one thing from this weekend's games that I want to bring up and I'm happy now that Bud is here because I know but love the hell out of it. Just it was one thing completely. Everybody kind of glanced over. Nobody cared about but me. During the Purdue Arizona game, Crevasse on Arizona and Oscar Clough were battling for a rebound. They got their feet tangled. They fell to the court. Krivos banged the hell out of his head onto the hardwood court. They stopped the game. He was holding his head. He was in pain. After a quick 30 second timeout, the game resumed. And guess who was still in the game. Crevasse. We're thinking if this had happened in a with a player wearing a helmet, that player would have had to go to the sideline. He would have had to get tested. They would have had to clear him to come back in the game. But why don't they have to do that in basketball? But why is there. Why is nobody worried about concussions in basketball? It's like there's some sort of ulterior motive to why they do it in football.
- [08:39]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, it's almost like there's not enough money in concussion claims in basketball.
- [08:43]
Tom Fornelli
I was gonna say we don't. Should we start the concussion lawsuits?
- [08:49]
Chip Patterson
I'm just saying, I mean, and there was nobody basketball concussions to get a good class action out of this thing.
- [08:55]
Bud Elliott
And like, you know, I'm following, I've got my Twitter open and I'm thinking of like in a football game, if this happened, there's like a thousand tweets. I'm like, oh my God, how are they going to let him play? He could have a concussion. Not a single peep of anybody in the college football or basketball media about it. And a lot of them cross over. It was just a very fascinating and interesting little insight for me into the difference between the sports.
- [09:14]
Chip Patterson
We should get off this conversation because I do think we run the risk of all of a sudden basketball players having to wear those like, little like soft caps out there. And that would just look ridiculous.
- [09:24]
Tom Fornelli
Thank you. See, Bud does have the greater good of basketball.
- [09:28]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [09:29]
Chip Patterson
I mean, we're Starting to see him at like quarterback camps now. I'm like, guys, this is not contact. We did not need to wear this, right?
- [09:36]
Tom Fornelli
Like, what are we doing a great pivot here. College football tradition points out all four Final Four teams went 9 and 4 in football this year. Oh yeah, how about that for a nice little connection. And speaking of non contact, we did have some power conference spring games from over the weekend. A couple thoughts, couple notes taken away from both Nebraska and Clemson. Quick shout out to to Cody Nagle over@cbssports.com very much enjoyed watching him, you know, continue to build your read Cody. How about the hashtag read Cody? Cody's done a great job. He had a good write up for the Nebraska spring game, something that he was able to do to distract himself from the fact Nebraska lost in the sweet 16. That's neither here nor there.
- [10:19]
Bud Elliott
I was going to say Cody suddenly had a lot more free time this weekend.
- [10:22]
Tom Fornelli
It was incredible. And apparently based on the attendance, the way it looked on the Big Ten network, it looked like there was still some, some travel, maybe they were still waiting in tsa getting back to be able to make it to the game. But one of the large takeaways is that it does not seem like there is a quarterback competition in Lincoln. It seems like Anthony Calandria not only is going to be the player as he was playing with the first team, as he was playing with the starters, he looked better than T.J. lateef, he was more productive than T.J. lateef. Two touchdowns, one interception. But most importantly, you're starting to see the, the Holgo influence because while Dylan Raiola sometimes held on to the ball too long and sometimes the offense wasn't always moving. This offense is a little bit more athletic on the offensive line, maybe not as much of mashers. They're going to play with tempo, they're going to play a little bit faster. And, and the Whoopsie Daisy King looked like he was in total control. So we talked about this as a quarterback battle. Tom, first word on the Whoopsie Daisy King. We, we're encouraged by what we have heard and seen so far from the Cornhousers.
- [11:29]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, it's, it's a spring game. But like the one thing I had been saying about the move from Raiola to Calandria is I think Calandria is a better fit for what Dana Holgerson offenses typically did than Dylan Raiola was doing. And you saw like not just the mobility, but they were like, they weren't going full speed, full speed because again Spring game, they were running at a more like a higher tempo in this game than they had been under Raola. And I think your quarterback plays a role in how quickly you want to go. Like so I do think that this is a more natural scheme fit. It doesn't mean they're going to be better. It doesn't mean that he's going to have a better season than Raiola, but it just feels like I think Nebraska is going to be doing more of what it wants to do than what it kind of had to do.
- [12:13]
Tom Fornelli
Do we like that?
- [12:15]
Chip Patterson
I, yeah, I, I think so. Overall, if you can get a bounce back from the defense this year too, like I do think Nebraska can be better. You know, I don't know if they're going to be like top half of the Big Ten, but I, I think they could kind of threaten to be top half of that middle tier.
- [12:37]
Danny Cannell
I think Calandria, his legs are going to be a big part of this and that's what I think will be a happy change with an offensive line that who knows if it's going to be much better but if it doesn't take some stress off of those. I mean if you're not an elite passing quarterback, it's a requirement to be able to run the football today, you know. And like I don't think Calander is an elite passer, but I think he's a pretty good runner that can extend plays and it just puts more bind on the secondary to cover that much longer. You don't know where he's sitting in the pocket. Totally makes sense why he would do this.
- [13:09]
Tom Fornelli
I, I mentioned the, the offensive line piece of this because that's one thing that I know that we had touched on and a takeaway listening to Dana Holgerson talk about this offense, things that he does not know even at the conclusion of spring, whether the running backs are going to really be able to develop and be able to make game breaking plays, whether the wide receivers, whether they've got enough there to be able to get the kind of separation. But he said, you know, we were a little bit bigger and a little bit more of, you know, kind of like a mashing unit along the offensive line which still not necessarily good enough to overwhelm Big Ten defensive lines. But the combination of Calandria's mobility and an offensive line that by Dana's own analysis is a little bit, a little bit more, you know, athletic and can move faster. I just, I, I'm envisioning an offense that will stress some defenses in A very, very big way, but is going to have a real tough time unless they can get some skill, position upgrades in terms of the way they're able to do it. You know, when you're a little bit lighter and when you're running around, it can work. It can be a real difference maker against defenses that aren't the very best defenses in the Big Ten. But maybe that's the kind of season that Nebraska wants to have to be able to be dynamic in that way. I'm. I think that a lot of the pieces seem to be fitting together in the right way.
- [14:31]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I think that makes sense.
- [14:33]
Tom Fornelli
Donovan. Not Donovan, Rayola. Dylan Raola seemingly was even on campus that weekend. Showed up at a softball game.
- [14:43]
Chip Patterson
I mean, look, I guarantee you he still has friends on the team, right? Like, I'm sure there are some that don't love that he transferred out, but, you know, there's some that are probably fine with it.
- [14:57]
Tom Fornelli
Last connection to basketball for Nebraska here. Did y' all notice that after they showed Matt Rule on television, Iowa went on a 16 to 5 run to close the game?
- [15:10]
Bud Elliott
But.
- [15:11]
Tom Fornelli
But Iowa did not have a lead in the game until there was a minute and 13 seconds left. Nebraska led basically the whole way. Then they showed Matt Rule on television. Matt Rule, who's 2 and 25 against top 25 teams. And then all of a sudden, I would just snatch the game away.
- [15:26]
Bud Elliott
You have to throw their record. Yeah, it.
- [15:31]
Chip Patterson
Man. I. I really enjoyed watching the college basketball this weekend, though. I also laugh really hard at, like, the studio crew and the announcers are like, oh, like, hey, man, you know, Tennessee's got a really good shot to get back in this. And then against Arizona, it was. Who was Arizona beaten pretty good in the first. Was it pretty.
- [15:49]
Tom Fornelli
The. Tennessee was Michigan and It was a 210 run, right?
- [15:52]
Chip Patterson
Tennessee. Michigan. There was Arizona. I think it might have been Thursday.
- [15:59]
Bud Elliott
Playing the Sweet sixteen.
- [16:02]
Chip Patterson
But they're like, oh, like, hey, they just need to do this, this, this, this. And this article comes out, like, immediate 8, 0 run to start the second half for zone. I was like, okay, we're gonna go to bed.
- [16:10]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, that would. That would be. That would be Arkansas.
- [16:13]
Chip Patterson
Yes. Arkansas.
- [16:15]
Tom Fornelli
A R, K A N, S A S. Yeah, there's no D. Not a single name D in Arkansas.
- [16:22]
Chip Patterson
It was also clear, like, they did a lot of work on the NBA prospect from Arkansas whose name I can't remember. And I was like, man, there's a lot of focus on this kid as they're losing by 25.
- [16:35]
Tom Fornelli
He was electric. He's a great player elsewhere. So we did not have the Clemson spring game on television as we told you on Thursday. However, Clemson 247 doing a great job there. Some, some quick thoughts that, that I took away. Number one, we talked about the quarterback. Chris Vezina does appear to still be the QB one, but the takeaway that was notable to me is that freshman quarterback Tate Reynolds is QB, seems to be QB2 and like maybe a little bit closer to Vezina than a lot of people would have expected. He was described as looking very raw, but, you know, a lot of potential there. Now a classic case of the guy who's been there and maybe doesn't have as high a ceiling, the inexperienced freshman who maybe has a higher ceiling. And all of this is going to come down to Chad Morris, a new offensive coordinator and what he wants to do. Also, good spring game observations that Gideon Davidson, the talented running back, had a good day and some young receivers, including Naim Burrows and Gordon Sellers also had good performances. But any of those names or any of those thoughts that surprise you or, or pique your interest one way or
- [17:47]
Chip Patterson
the other, I mean, Davidson doesn't. That's a guy we like a lot coming out of high school, so.
- [17:53]
Tom Fornelli
Right.
- [17:53]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, he, he's. They need him. So Wesco and Moore didn't play. Correct. So I think you have to take that within context for. I mean, Vezina's numbers were. I mean, 10 of 18 for 95 is God awful. But again, without your, like, what's the best part about this team? It's probably Wesco and more. So if you don't have those guys, I wouldn't expect your numbers to be great. I mean, Reynolds was marginally better, I guess, you know, seven for 10 for, for 70 something. Yeah, I, I don't know that I love this team. Our friend Parker Stats War had a nice, nice graphic over the weekend using our friend Bill Connolly's SP+ projections that came out. And I was like, man, it's very reasonable to be like, yeah, this team could finish anywhere between like third and 14th in the ACC. Like Cal was like 14th. And I was like, yeah, you know what, if it breaks right, they could finish third.
- [18:52]
Tom Fornelli
That was your takeaway on that? Yeah, I was like, yeah, Clemson. I thought that it was, I thought Clemson was interested. You know, maybe it was a generous rating, obviously, and some of that's going to be program history and recruiting and things like that. But it was also that Clemson could be the third best team in the SEs in the ACC and it will not mean anything in terms of the national conversation. Like you could, you could. Clemson could enter November saying that they've got a chance to get to Charlotte. And we would look at it from the national perspective and say, and I don't know if that's gonna at all gonna be like moving the needle in terms of where this program was a decade ago.
- [19:34]
Bud Elliott
I mean, I've already pronounced him dead. But to pile on more, just throw more dirt on that grave. Like we talk about Dabo's way with the transfer portal. What we don't talk about as much in this NIL era is how their recruiting has fallen off a cliff too, because they're not really playing the game anymore that you have to to get the top recruits. We're talking about a Clemson team that used to regularly be in the top 10 in recruiting classes. Then they kind of slipped to the 15 range in the first few years of the NIL. Now the last two years they've been 26th and 28th in recruiting rankings as far as their overall class. And now we're in the spring game. And I'm not trying to knock this kid, but we're getting excited about the three star, fresh true freshman quarterback. He's looking really good and he's closing in on the guy that's been there for a few years. These aren't red flags to people.
- [20:24]
Chip Patterson
I mean we've been saying it. I feel like. Like it's.
- [20:31]
Tom Fornelli
Well, it's. What's your. What are your expectations? Do you want to go to the Pinstripe Bowl? Do you want to win eight games or do you want to compete for national championships? And I just think that the goalposts have undeniably moved.
- [20:41]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, exactly.
- [20:44]
Tom Fornelli
Danny, any buzz or any. Any takeaways from. From the Clemson side of things that stood out to you?
- [20:50]
Danny Cannell
There's going to be a large spotlight on Chad Morris already. Like some people were a little restless about the offense not looking great. That's kind of typical though in the spring game. You know, offense, new offense getting back. You know, it's a new old offense but typically the defense dominates there. So I'm sure there's. But he's going to have. I don't think the fan base love the higher as it was. He better hopes that. He better hope they get off to a strong start.
- [21:13]
Tom Fornelli
Yep. All right.
- [21:15]
Danny Cannell
Whatever happened to Chandler Morris's case? Was that denied or is it still ongoing?
- [21:20]
Bud Elliott
Still going?
- [21:21]
Chip Patterson
I've not seen that.
- [21:22]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah. The.
- [21:22]
Chip Patterson
The.
- [21:23]
Tom Fornelli
We got the. The. Another Trinidad Chambliss court update. But it, I think it was just. I can't remember who was appealed. Denied. Thumb. I. It was a thumbs up. He's still all good.
- [21:34]
Bud Elliott
Trinidad's playing.
- [21:35]
Tom Fornelli
Trinidad is playing? Yeah. I do not know whether we are. Which step we are in the appeal process. I don't know, but it does. What that mean? Oh, he's good. All right, cool.
- [21:46]
Bud Elliott
I mean, if Chandler Morris gets another year of eligibility, I just worry about the mental health of the kid who doesn't get a scholarship because of it.
- [21:53]
Chip Patterson
That's right.
- [21:54]
Tom Fornelli
Got it. Gotta always be concerned about that.
- [21:56]
Danny Cannell
All right.
- [21:57]
Tom Fornelli
Coming up on the other side are if Vegas is right, series takes a look at the Big 12 where Texas Tech is truly standing by itself. But we've got a couple other contenders. We've got, we've got a handful, almost four new coaches. And as always with this series, what do the win totals mean for some coaches under pressure? All that and more. You know, mental health can feel like this huge, complicated thing because if you hurt your arm, you see a doctor, no problem. But finding the right therapist, suddenly it's confusing, expensive, and takes forever. That's why Rula is so great. They make therapy simple, fast and affordable. They accept most major insurance plans and the average session copay is just $15. $15. That's basically lunch money. But instead of a sandwich, you're investing in your mental well being. And here's the best part. Rula isn't just about matching you with someone. Every therapist is licensed, vetted and picked for their expertise. They actually follow up to make sure you're making progress. You answer a few questions about what matters to you. Pick a time and you could be talking to a therapist as soon as the next day. No waiting, no guessing, no stress. Thousands of guys have already used Rula to finally get the care they needed. Don't keep putting it off. Go to rula.comcover and get started today. That's R U L A dot com cover. Take the first step, get connected and take control of your mental health. Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes so you don't have to. Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is with thumbtack. You don't have to be a home pro. You just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app. Download today.
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- [25:14]
Tom Fornelli
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Let's see. Q. CU Tiger alum 1 mentioned he wishes Dabo would do one on ones. Yes. In terms of the scoring, they do an orange and white with the split squad which is, I mean also I'm not criticizing it. He wants to see competition. He doesn't care about the final score. But it means your offensive line is not everybody that you practiced with. Right?
- [25:35]
Danny Cannell
Right.
- [25:36]
Tom Fornelli
There's a lot of the this might be a little bit clunky, but that's not our big topic today. It is if Vegas is right. Taking a look at the Big 12 and I, I think even in the tailgate right when we got going. Oh, we missed it. Yeah. What do you do with an 11 and a half? 11 and a half wins for Texas Tech. Now if you are feeling bold about the Red Raiders, the over will give you a nice little payout. If you are thinking ain't no way that's a bad bet. 12 0. That's crazy. Well yeah, the under is heavily juiced as well. Plus 152 to the over. Minus 188 at one spot where I looked at heading into this show. But we can spend as much or as little time as you guys want on this. But a, a a team being so far ahead of the rest of the conference in the win total in the conference title odds all across the board, eleven and a half. I mean is it the right number? I want to hear somebody like, you know, it's a pretty good number.
- [26:37]
Chip Patterson
I, I mean I, I think the problem is if you make it 11 you have a really high probability as an odds maker that you're gonna have to just pay this Back because of a push. Right. I mean 10 and two regular season given their non conference schedule or are you losing two conference games? Like in what game are they not double digits?
- [27:02]
Tom Fornelli
Because even like not only is it.
- [27:03]
Danny Cannell
And they don't play Utah and byu.
- [27:05]
Chip Patterson
Well, that's my point. Like, like they have a, a cakewalk non conference and they also get, I think a pretty favorable draw in the Big 12.
- [27:14]
Tom Fornelli
Yes.
- [27:15]
Bud Elliott
If they don't get BYU or Utah.
- [27:18]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [27:18]
Bud Elliott
Which I mean shout out to the schedule makers because they are, they're like, we're gonna get it. We gotta get Texas Tech a top four seed here. We gotta get him.
- [27:29]
Chip Patterson
Also we hear about the travel problems in, in the Big 12. Which of these games are travel problems?
- [27:38]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, right.
- [27:39]
Chip Patterson
Like so you're on the road only four times, not five, which you know, it flip flops every year in, in the, the nine game schedule. I mean at Cincinnati is your longest conference road trip. It's not nothing but it, it's. I mean just looking at this like at Oklahoma State, at Baylor, that's, I mean Oklahoma State is not in state, but it might as well be. You know, Baylor's pretty close at Colorado.
- [28:07]
Bud Elliott
I'm looking at the SP plus rankings right now. Okay. And, and the top four teams according to Bill's rankings are Texas Tech, byu, Utah and Kansas State. What do those byu, Utah and Kansas State all have in common? You don't see them on the screen right now where we're showing the Texas Tech schedule. The highest ranked team that they play according to Bill is Arizona at 30th, which using just his rankings, and it's at home, they will be about a 16 point favorite in that game according to Bill's metrics.
- [28:41]
Danny Cannell
If they're not around this win total, is it safe to. Well, they do have a backup, but I was, well, I was gonna say if they're not close, like let's say they're nine and three, that Brendan Sorsby was a major disappointment or he was
- [28:52]
Tom Fornelli
hurt and Joey McGuire has questions. All of it.
- [28:55]
Danny Cannell
Oh, big time. And I think if they're at 11, 1 or 12, 0, we'll go into the playoffs saying I think they're good. Like we won't really know because they won't be. Like I don't. There aren't many tests on here. Like there's a game, they come out flat and they get caught. But other than that, this is an absolute cakewalk.
- [29:14]
Bud Elliott
I could see going to Oklahoma State late in the year being a tricky spot. Like if that Oklahoma State Team does improve like we all expect it to, and it's a better football team. That's always a tough place to win when that team is good. So you're coming off of that. All those games, you haven't really been tested. You go on the road late in the year, maybe you get caught.
- [29:33]
Danny Cannell
What if DJ Lagway finally meets expectations?
- [29:36]
Bud Elliott
True. What if it happens? We can't rule it out.
- [29:38]
Chip Patterson
That's right. But we're finding a lot of ifs for one loss. This is why it's 11 and a half. I mean just eyeballing this, looking at SP, they, they might be two touchdowns in every game before you count for home field. So they're double digits preseason in every game.
- [30:00]
Tom Fornelli
I like the Oklahoma State call, Tom. Not only because still water can get a little bit dicey. It'd be late in the year. But also your clothes Classic first year coach has a team that might get better as the season goes on. You know, that'd be, that'd be potentially tricky. But we are really, really reaching. As you mentioned other like Houston, Arizona, tcu. Even if you think Arizona State, which we might get to later, has a six and a half win total, like all of those teams, all home games in Lubbock and the Arizona game. Are you kidding me? Halloween in Lubbock, Texas. Arizona's not winning that game.
- [30:38]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [30:39]
Tom Fornelli
It's.
- [30:40]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [30:41]
Chip Patterson
We're also having this discussion all year. I think it, it's like, all right, are they prepared for the playoffs with. With this schedule? Right, right. You know we saw them run through everybody. Then Oregon made them look pretty pedestrian.
- [30:56]
Bud Elliott
I'm looking at conference title features right now online. Do you know what Texas Tech is at?
- [31:01]
Chip Patterson
They got to be minus.
- [31:02]
Bud Elliott
They're minus 120.
- [31:03]
Danny Cannell
Yeah. Wow.
- [31:04]
Bud Elliott
Second place is Utah. It's seven to one. Like and I'm looking. You go to the ACC, it's a very similar situation. Miami's minus 135. SMU is seven to one.
- [31:14]
Chip Patterson
So this was an interesting conversation on, on Twitter over the weekend. Like are you more confident in Miami against their cakewalk schedule or Tech against theirs? And I said I think it's tech because assuming Hammond comes back from the injury. Okay, that's a backup that like hey, if source he went down, I, I do trust Hammond.
- [31:33]
Tom Fornelli
If men goes down, we got problems.
- [31:35]
Chip Patterson
Not at all. Yeah, right.
- [31:37]
Tom Fornelli
Great point.
- [31:38]
Danny Cannell
Kirk Signati put a pretty good point. Kind of want to sprinkle source B Heisman now.
- [31:42]
Tom Fornelli
Oh, just like not a bad thought.
- [31:44]
Danny Cannell
You're undefeated. You're Going to be a top four three team in the country, you know, and you. The Heisman is before the playoffs start.
- [31:54]
Bud Elliott
So 20 to 1.
- [31:56]
Danny Cannell
It's not, it's not a bad thought.
- [31:59]
Tom Fornelli
You're getting a lot of those.
- [32:01]
Danny Cannell
Those you want to sit now. Do you have signature moments? You might. I mean you might not get those because like again.
- [32:08]
Tom Fornelli
But how did Fernando win? Because all the names at the top of the board like just had tough
- [32:12]
Danny Cannell
games and they lost them.
- [32:13]
Tom Fornelli
That huge expectation. Obviously Fernando did have huge games against other playoff team, playoff caliber teams and went into Austin like he built his own thing. I mean, Kurt Znati is going to get furious. We're using his argument. But I'm not trying to pick apart Fernando. But right now, in terms of the math of it all, Arch Manning's eating up a lot of the pie. Dante Moore is eating up a lot of the pie. 21 might be one of the best numbers you're going to get on Sourceby here. So I don't, I don't hate that from, from that idea.
- [32:44]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I don't hate it. I think part of it's just are they going to throw enough and then dog walk everybody so much that he's not playing enough volume. Right.
- [32:56]
Tom Fornelli
Like if you spent. If he's been. He's been on the bench for the final offensive possession of 10 of 12 4th quarters.
- [33:05]
Chip Patterson
Right? Exactly.
- [33:06]
Tom Fornelli
Something like that could get. That was it Florida State 2014. That was 13 0. But got the three seed.
- [33:12]
Chip Patterson
Yes. Yeah.
- [33:14]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah.
- [33:15]
Danny Cannell
I mean different out to the Rose bowl to play Oregon.
- [33:18]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah. Different reasons why they were there. But I could still see one of those teams with losses could end up with a better seed than Texas Tech after that schedule. That again, nets 11 and a half. All right, let's look at those next teams. We talked about the toughest challengers on the board. Let's start with the. The Utah Utes. This will also give us a chance to take a look at what year one might look like under Morgan Scott Alley. Now, eight and a half is the win total here. We do have Devin Dampier coming back. We still have a roster that I think is really talented. No Kyle Whittingham and some. Some other coaching staff changes along the way. Bud, what does this eight and a half tell you about. About expectations for the Utes?
- [34:01]
Chip Patterson
I mean it's still put aside Texas Tech for a second because they're kind of in a different league relative to this league, but like eight and a half in. In this new revenue sharing era of college Football is going to denote like a pretty high expectation team. Like there really aren't that many teams out there that, that have eight and a half as, as their number. I still expect the defense to be like pretty good. I, I mean if you're going with a continuity higher, I, I think you're trying to keep a lot of the good things about the guy you pushed out in, in Kyle Whittingham. As far as like the physicality. You know, they do have some like nice young pieces here. I, I just. Can they get it done if Dan Pierre doesn't somehow improve as a thrower a lot? Right. I also worry about the loss of Beck. I do think he's like a real value add, especially with a guy like Dan Pier. So I'd be curious as to how they look this year. We'll find out. You know, some more on that coming up on summer school. But man, I'm eight and a half's like still pretty impressive. They're probably the, the class of the non Texas Tech, you know, Big 12. I think like I, I like them slightly over BYU because I'm not really a believer in the BYU quarterback as far as like him being special. I think he's, you know, good for a young player. But I still like this team.
- [35:22]
Bud Elliott
It's, it's way too hard to say like this is a team that could go nine and three. This is a team I feel like could struggle to get to a bowl game. I mean there's so many changes. It's like obviously Kyle Whittingham is gone. Morgan Scally said this is the first time since 2004 that Kyle Whittingham wasn't the coach of Utah going into the season. But then like they lose their two tackles on their offensive line, they've lost a couple of their better defender defensive players. So they're, they're replacing a whole hell of a lot. And you think of what is when Utah's been particularly good, they've been strong along the lines of scrimmage. We don't know what they're going to look like. I just looked at their depth chart, you know, for their projected depth chart, they've got a true freshman projected to start at tackle right now. I don't know if that's going to be the case once the season begins, but like I, I know you're in the Big 12, so maybe that's not as big of a deal as it would be if you were in the Big ten or the sec, but it's still a pretty Damn big deal if you're starting a true freshman at tackle after you got like a likely first round pick there for the last three years. So yeah, like they could hit. They could win a lot of games in the Big 12. They could take advantage of that soft middle of the conference. But the soft middle can take advantage of them too. Like I'm leaning more under here than I am over
- [36:33]
Tom Fornelli
would do you think a 7 and 5 season and this would be like obviously fallen way, way under the eight and a half. Does that, does that mean that you start to have buyer? Danny, would that be buyers remorse on the Morgan Scally?
- [36:47]
Danny Cannell
I think so.
- [36:48]
Sling Sports Advertiser
Not.
- [36:48]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, I mean it would be like, oh, this is the first year. But I think it kind of puts a lot of pressure on going to year two.
- [36:54]
Tom Fornelli
Right.
- [36:54]
Danny Cannell
You know, so. Yeah, absolutely. And I mean some of this determines on what happened to Michigan. Like if Kyle Winningham gets nine or 10 wins at Michigan in year one, that puts a lot of pressure on Morgan Scally in itself.
- [37:07]
Tom Fornelli
The numbers again, obviously nine, eight and a half is the win total. We mentioned our friend Bill Conley. Those SP numbers are out. I mean Utah is going to be a favorite in a lot of games on its schedule.
- [37:19]
Bud Elliott
Right.
- [37:19]
Tom Fornelli
You'll win every game that you're a favorite and you're not going to be a huge favorite in all of them.
- [37:24]
Bud Elliott
But let me, let me ask you guys this. Like they open the season with Idaho, then they get Arkansas coming to Salt Lake City in week two. How shocked would you guys be if they lose to Arkansas like right now? Just on a scale of 1 to 10, how shocking would that be?
- [37:36]
Tom Fornelli
8.
- [37:39]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Pretty surprised that that's a, that's a tough place to go play. I don't have real, I hopes for that Arkansas team in year one.
- [37:51]
Tom Fornelli
I, I am, I am. Rice Eccles Stadium for an SEC team. I think they'll be up. I think that's a, I think that is a statement game early in September for Utah.
- [38:06]
Bud Elliott
You know, one of those Silverfield is a dog. We don't know.
- [38:10]
Tom Fornelli
Never seen it. Big 12 Burning Questions by Tom Frenelli or SEC Burning Questions. Yeah, any. Anything else on Utah? What we'll see.
- [38:27]
Danny Cannell
I think the Big 12 is the same as it is kind of every year like now without with Texas Tech being kind of as an old category. You look around, you're like, you can make a case either way. Like there's just a lot of teams that look very similar, you know. And one, if you over perform, you could be playing the Big 12 title. And if you underperform, you could be four wins.
- [38:46]
Tom Fornelli
That's fair. What about the BYU Cougars? They are also in that next tier up outside of Texas Tech. You get Bachmire back at quarterback, but you lose your very, very gifted defensive coordinator. My words. Feel free to push back on that if you want, but now we're going in and we're doing a lot of copying and pasting in terms of, you know, what we think BYU is going to be. Is that fair? Are there, are there curveballs coming? Because we're sitting here and I think, I think BYU should be right in the mix once again to be competing for a spot to maybe go toe to toe with Texas Tech in that Big 12 title race. But questions to be answered for sure. And just margins seem very slim in, in a lot of these games.
- [39:37]
Chip Patterson
I, I worry about receiver here a lot. Like, do they have enough weapons? There's. Look, there is some chance that Bachmier takes like a real step forward as a player. He had some nice moments last year. I also think, you know, he got exposed sometimes. The receivers got exposed too against Texas Tech. Like those guys were not getting open. And, you know, I don't think he's like a special player. You know, I think there's some like, you know, people just kept wanting Rocco back to get like massively better. And I'm like, guys, like, he was just nice early and continues to be nice, but he's not special. Right. Like, he can probably get better with more maturity, more experience, but like he kind of is what he is physically. You know what I mean?
- [40:22]
Tom Fornelli
Anthony's face.
- [40:24]
Chip Patterson
Sure. I mean, like, the guy's still in college, didn't go pro. Right. In a pretty crappy quarterback draft. So, you know, like, kind of is what it is.
- [40:35]
Bud Elliott
I think one, I mean, I do expect they'll be one of the better teams in the league again. I don't know if they'll, to use your words, Jeff, they'll be going toe to toe with Texas Tech in the conference race. I, I think there's going to be a gap between Texas Tech and the second best team as far as the record is concerned. Concern not just in like power ratings, because I do think that their schedule is a bit more difficult this year. Like, I mean, obviously there's the non con against Notre Dame that doesn't really impact conference play. But I think having to go on the road to TCU getting Arizona that early in the year, UCF at home is tougher. We've got on the graphic that Arizona State games at home. That's not on the road. But then you've got to go on the road for Utah. So I just think that it'll still be one of the better teams in the league. I just don't think it's gonna have as it's going to look as dominant, I guess is a good way to put compared to the rest of the Big 12 as it did last year. But yeah, Bear Bachmeyer I do think is a guy is a guy who could take a step forward. I just don't know if that step forward is going to be to the point that it makes them have a passing attack, that you truly have to fear it as much as it's just a change of pace.
- [41:37]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [41:38]
Tom Fornelli
Is there enough of a consideration about a defensive step back because of the loss of Jay Hill or are the A lot. A lot of the bodies are still there. You know, it's not like it's not like there was a flood exodus of players to go with him.
- [41:56]
Bud Elliott
Love having a great defensive coordinator. Love having talented defenders more.
- [42:01]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [42:02]
Bud Elliott
So I mean I do think that there is a chance that, yeah, you could see some slippage, but there's also a chance that maybe it'll be business as usual on that side because I do feel like there's kind of just a culture and identity to the way that that team plays that I think is going to stick there no matter what.
- [42:16]
Chip Patterson
I just think when I look at all these, it's more okay, how the how the hell does Texas Tech come back to the pack? I don't really see a team right now that can close the gap with Texas Tech more than half the way. Right. Like you kind of need a Tech collapse from what we think they are and what they certainly were last year.
- [42:34]
Tom Fornelli
Fair, I guess. Toe to toe just in my man, meant they were playing on the first Saturday in December, like literally going toe to toe just being able to just be in there. And Utah and BYU in that conversation to be able to be one of the top two teams in the standings at the end of the year. As always, the Holy War rivalry will likely play a big role in that. Coming up on the other side, well, we already talked about Utah, but Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Iowa State all have new head coaches as well. And what does the pressure look like for Sonny Dykes, Dave Aranda, Lance Leipold and Scott Satterfield and Deion Sanders? All that and more.
- [43:14]
Bud Elliott
Oops.
- [43:18]
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- [44:19]
Tom Fornelli
back here on the COVID three podcast. To those in the tailgate watching along YouTube.com cover three yeah, I've got BYU around eight and a half, too, you know. Eight and a half. I know. We just showed it on the screen. Seven and a half. There's, there's, you know, these things are going to bounce back and forth depending on where you're shopping and what you're looking at. All right, Colin Klein, it's gonna, it's gonna make the, the Danny Canal had to step away. So we got Bud Elliott, Tom Fornelli, myself. It's gonna make the three. I say that because we are all of about the similar generation and head coach Colin Klein is gonna, it's gonna age us a little. Yeah, I'm gonna feel pretty old. Like, yeah, we weren't even new in the college football blogging world. You know, when Colin Klein is out here getting Kansas State to the top of the BCS rankings, but he was also more recently a very good offensive coordinator for his alma mater. And now he gets a chance to come back and be the head coach. The annual Avery Johnson. How much of a dark horse you want to make him? Let's, let's go. Let's fire up that machine once again. Seven and a half is the win total. Bud, where, where does your mind drift when you think about year one of the Colin Klein era?
- [45:34]
Chip Patterson
I mean, look, I, I, if there's a guy who can unlock Avery Johnson, I, I think it's Colin Klein and that that team is, is going to be driven probably by what do they get out of Avery?
- [45:44]
Bud Elliott
Right.
- [45:44]
Chip Patterson
Like I know they've had some real struggles and also, I mean they've had some good moments, right. But they just like it hasn't been all put together there recently, you know. But I do think if Colin can get the max out of Avery Johnson like that, that's where you really see this team become, become dangerous. Because I do think he has that upside. You know, like the non con is Doncon is pretty friendly, right. You get Washington State, you get Tulane and you get oh Nichols. Right. So it should be a pretty soft start. You go to Cincinnati, obviously Cincinnati lost source they did lose some other key pieces. I don't think Cincinnati is going to suck, but I'm not sure that they're better this year than they were last year. I like to get Houston and Kansas at home. There's some tricky road spots though. Like you know, at Arizona State is, is certainly not easy at Colorado probably is at tuc. You know, TCU is not at Iowa State. I mean it kind of depends on what you think about Iowa State. But it like they don't play what byu, they don't play Texas Tech. But having to play like right, they don't play Utah. This is really the Big 12 did something weird here this year where it's like the top teams, a lot of top teams don't play the other top teams, which means a lot of the bottom teams do. So this, this is not going to be quite as wide open, you know, as we thought it was.
- [47:09]
Bud Elliott
This is the year Avery Johnson has improved so much under this new offense. He's focused, he's having fun. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a dark horse for the Heisman. Just that's a callback. He's the new Bonix. Yeah, I mean there's. This is a team that I think could take a pretty. I mean they finished what, 6 and 6 last year pretty disappointing by Kansas State standards, what they've been accustomed to there. I do think that the way that this schedule sets up, I think that with Colin Klein coming in, maybe just a, just a little jolt of energy that had been missing the last couple of seasons. This is, this is the kind of season where you can see them bouncing back up not to like, you know, win the league but get back into that nine win range like somebody in this league is going to finish nine and three that you weren't really predicting to finish twin nine and three because that's kind of the nature of the beast. That wouldn't be that far from their win total. I think that they could, I mean they could end up in the Big 12 championship because again like they don't play Utah, they don't play byu, they don't play Texas Tech and then they could get to the Big 12 championship and maybe they lose to Texas Tech by 25, but they get there.
- [48:15]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [48:16]
Tom Fornelli
This is screaming five way tie with a 7. 2 conference record.
- [48:21]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [48:22]
Tom Fornelli
To be able to get second place. And that's decided by either Sports source Analytics of the College Football Playoff selection committee. And also, I mean you think can we go tinfoil hat? It's March 30th. Why not? Do you think the led court innovation also turned in a report that says if your good teams don't play each other, you have more ranked games late in the season because that's all you need is ranked on ranked games in November to be able to have true playoff implications right deep into your year. I don't know. I think it's a great. If I was to script and if that would only be if I was a conference with an affiliation with wwe, if I was a conference with an affiliation with WWE and writing a script to be able to promote big time matches, I mean games late in the season, having all of my best teams not play each other until the very end. Yeah, that checks out. It'd be a good decision. To your point about jolt of Energy, Chris Kleiman was so worn down, that man saw it was on his face. What was the quote? What do you want me to do? Like, I mean he was so frustrated obviously, you know, trying to figure out where he was in terms of his own career, whether it was going to be retirement, whether he was going to just try to like step away and try something else. This is a, in my best guess and I have not been to the Little Apple to see it myself, but this is a, a clear focus coach who understands the university, the area, what it takes to win at a very high level intimately. I think that the jolt of energy is a great way to put it and it's not just because of the age difference, different time in your career, whole thing.
- [50:17]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, it's, it's not a criticism, but there are some coaches who I just don't think enjoy coaching in this current atmosphere. And they just feel like all the new stuff that they've had to do just takes away from what they enjoy doing, which is being a football coach.
- [50:32]
Chip Patterson
I would agree with that.
- [50:33]
Tom Fornelli
When you're the offensive coordinator Texas A and M, you can't tell me that you haven't been playing the game.
- [50:38]
Bud Elliott
No.
- [50:40]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [50:40]
Tom Fornelli
You're familiar. You're familiar. Yeah. Maybe operating with a different budget and you know, different pool, but you are absolutely been playing the game. Okay. Oklahoma State, year one under Eric Morris, we've discussed. He shows up with Drew Mestemaker. Win total pulled it last night around five and a half. Which for all the conversation around the hire and around the outlook, maybe a little sobering,
- [51:11]
Chip Patterson
but I mean they were so far away from being a decent team last year. I think part of that was probably effort, you know, like it felt like a team that was quitting on, on the coach because like the whole, the whole culture was, was falling apart. To me you have to figure out like, okay, like what was their true talent, like win expectancy last year? Like, okay, they had actually played hard and played together, they would not have lost to Tulsa. Right. Like, like, do they. Are they still bad? Yeah, but they're probably not like one of the worst Power 5 teams of the last decade.
- [51:46]
Tom Fornelli
Bad.
- [51:47]
Chip Patterson
I would, I would think like Oklahoma State's not broke. I'm not saying they're spending like crazy, but they're, they're not somebody that's spending like 7 million on their football roster. So I like, you bring in the quarterback, you bring in the coach. We've seen this before. I do think there's a lot of like upward mobility into that, like kind of what, 5 through 12 range in the big 12, like somebody can rise up. It's not crazy to think that like Oklahoma State could be that team. You know, live discrimination would be a bit of a concern. Obviously, like you saw North Texas get exposed a little bit last year when they played the better teams in that league. It really was not very competitive. But man, like I think they're, I think they're in pretty good hands and I do think they have a chance to like. Would it shock you if they went 8 and 4?
- [52:38]
Tom Fornelli
Yes.
- [52:39]
Bud Elliott
No.
- [52:40]
Chip Patterson
Which to me I'm an answer no to like almost all these teams that are in this like 5, 6 range. It's only like 2ish wins over expectation. You know, if you're flipping coins eight times, you're going to go 6 and 2 sometimes.
- [52:55]
Bud Elliott
Very, very useful resource this time of year is the. Our lads depth charts. I'm just. Mikey, if you could put it up. I want you guys to take a look at what Oklahoma State's depth chart is on our let's right now.
- [53:05]
Tom Fornelli
That sounds, it looks like a lot of opportunity to me.
- [53:08]
Bud Elliott
There is for Those who are listening, there are like no names on the depth chart because we don't know what the hell this roster is going to look like. And there were 53 transfers coming into Oklahoma State this year. So, like, you ask if I'd be shocked if they went 8 and 4. No, I wouldn't be shocked. I wouldn't be shocked if they went 4 and 8. I think anybody who pretends they have an actual idea of what this Oklahoma State team is going to look like is just telling themselves what they want to. They're not really basing it in any reality because we don't know. Like, okay, so we've seen teams with new coaches and transfers play well. We've also seen new coaches take over, bring a lot of players with them, and that team not play well. So we can't know anything for sure. And it's the same thing. I, I, to be consistent, when I talk about Penn State, I say, are we sure that Iowa State's going to be better in the Big Ten than they were in the Big 12? Are we sure North Texas is going to be better in the Big 12 than it was in the American? Like, it's a step up for a lot of these players. So this is a very, very wide range of outcomes for Oklahoma State. So even if you look at the schedule, you look at anything, it's hard to know with certainty what's going to happen. And you look at that schedule, they've got Oregon and Noncon again. They probably won't lose by 60 again, so that's a good thing. But they're probably not going to win that game. You're more winnable games in conference like a West Virginia now you're on the road. You're on the road for Houston, you're on the road for Iowa State, you're on the road for Kansas State. Like, you do have to play Texas Tech, you do at least avoid byu. But like, I don't know, this team could be just as good as or bad as last year. It could be much better. We'll find out.
- [54:44]
Tom Fornelli
See, this is, that's why I said it would be a shock because Oklahoma State is one of those teams that does have to play Texas Tech and they draw Oregon. Those are two sharpie losses for me. So you're telling. So it's like with the other, with with the Houston team and Kansas State team, you know, with if you think Arizona State, it still is going to be able to pull something together. You're playing that it's just 8 and 4 would shock me. 8 and 4 is Big 12 coach of the year type stuff, in my opinion.
- [55:13]
Chip Patterson
The finish is brutal, though.
- [55:15]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Like, it's just, it's a lot to ask. I think. If you want to say, I think Oklahoma State's a bold team. That is not a bold prediction. That is a good, like a vote of confidence. But it gets. Starts to get really harder when you're looking at avoiding losses. Number loss, number five to get to eight and four.
- [55:35]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Like, also some of these road trips, I, I think I would swap if I could. Like, I think I'd rather be like at UCF and at Colorado than like at the Mountaineers and at Houston and at Iowa State. You know, it's a tough schedule for year one for sure, relative to their talent level. Yep.
- [55:54]
Tom Fornelli
Especially with all that. All that empty on the depth chart right there. Hey, listen. What, what does every coach say? Every job is open. Welcome to spring practice. Literally every single job does appear to be open. Okay. Also, we just mentioned Iowa State first year coach Jimmy Rogers coming in. This one is also a huge. This one might be one of my biggest. I don't knows of the whole. Yeah, okay, but if Bud's saying that too, then I am. I feel a lot less unprepared.
- [56:28]
Chip Patterson
We're not, we're not recording their summer school this week, but like the, like the deep dive on them just so I can ask good questions is going to take like an hour.
- [56:37]
Tom Fornelli
Isaac's in the tailgate. What a great time for Isaac to be here.
- [56:39]
Chip Patterson
Isaac.
- [56:40]
Tom Fornelli
Yes, please. Like, what's, what's the expectation here? Tom, do you have anything.
- [56:46]
Chip Patterson
Isaac is clueless. Look, I, I don't know what we're going to be like this year.
- [56:50]
Bud Elliott
I. I don't. I didn't. I wasn't able to send in the screenshot to Mikey in time to put it up on the screen, but I'm looking at the Arlets for Iowa State and every single name is gold or orange. And that's the color that they use for transfers. Like their entire starting offense is in orange. Nine of their starting defense is in orange. Like, similar situation. It's. It's a brand new roster. It's a brand new coaching staff. No idea.
- [57:16]
Chip Patterson
It was also one that was, was kind of produced late.
- [57:20]
Bud Elliott
Look, you know Mikey.
- [57:22]
Chip Patterson
There we go. That's a lot of orange.
- [57:29]
Tom Fornelli
Shout out to our lads. We showed them on screen. Tip of the hat for the, the hard work that involves trying to slot all of those transfers into what it
- [57:39]
Chip Patterson
Might look like maybe Isaac has a read on this. Is it Zane Flores or Jalen Rayner QB and these guys this year?
- [57:51]
Tom Fornelli
I. What would you do?
- [57:52]
Bud Elliott
I would lean Rayner.
- [57:53]
Tom Fornelli
I would lean Rayner.
- [57:56]
Chip Patterson
Raider played them though. And like, I mean the Sunbelt is still a huge gap from the Big 12 and like against Big 12 athletes like on Iowa State's team that was a struggle. Like we liked Rayner quite a bit when he was playing those lower level sun bit. I did. I liked Rainer a lot.
- [58:15]
Tom Fornelli
I'm saying he's just fun. Like there's a difference between like I like him, I want to trust him. Versus I enjoyed watching him when Arkansas State's offense would have those games because they would. There'd be boom and bust games with Jaylen Rayner. Undoubted.
- [58:28]
Bud Elliott
Yes.
- [58:29]
Chip Patterson
If, if you guys are longtime audience members. Remember we. When we went through the UMass depth chart in 2024, like just how messed up it was. Rainer's the kid who killed them. I believe if I recall in the game up. Was it up there or was it. Was it in Arkansas State?
- [58:45]
Bud Elliott
He was in Arkansas State.
- [58:46]
Chip Patterson
Arkansas State. And then I think the next week they got Troy and it was a little bit different story because Troy wasn't playing a bunch of like UMass walk ons in the secondary. So I, yeah, I don't know if I love Rayner in the Big 12.
- [59:06]
Bud Elliott
We'll, we'll also seen Zane Flores in the Big 12, but I don't really love Zane Flores in the Big 12 either. Although he did play okay towards the end of the year. Like early in the year he was just a complete mess. I mean we'll see.
- [59:20]
Chip Patterson
This is a team that I think could, they could be the worst team in the Big 12, but I don't think they will. But I think like now we're starting to get to the part of the range where like if things go wrong
- [59:34]
Tom Fornelli
it could be bad.
- [59:35]
Chip Patterson
They could be the work. Now they won't be because the, I mean the non con is what? Iowa, which is not easy. Bowling Green. Who's their third non con game?
- [59:47]
Bud Elliott
Southeast Missouri.
- [59:48]
Chip Patterson
Oh, Southeast Missouri. Excuse me.
- [59:50]
Bud Elliott
Rivalry game.
- [59:51]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, they play Utah. They play byu. They play. Man, they don't play what Texas Tech. And they don't play Kansas State?
- [60:01]
Bud Elliott
No, they play Kansas State to finish the year. So they're missing. Excuse me.
- [60:04]
Chip Patterson
Okay.
- [60:05]
Bud Elliott
Tech, Armageddon, Colorado and some other teams.
- [60:10]
Tom Fornelli
So at Washington State the quarterback run game was not like dominant but it was still a part of it. Eight rushing touchdowns from their Starting quarterback, couple hundred, you know, rushing yards. But There was also 15 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
- [60:26]
Bud Elliott
I mean, sounds like Jalen Rayner to me.
- [60:30]
Tom Fornelli
Jalen Rayner might be the style fit so that this one, again, we're not gonna. Now is not the time for us to make our picks. That will come much later, probably around July. But this is one where as. As we're looking for the pie and you're trying to figure out how to div up the finite amount of wins and losses that there are here. It's. It's tough. It's tough to be able to jump behind the Cyclones because I. I don't know. Five and a half. We'll see. Okay, now let's pivot before we get out of here. Coaches under pressure, but I'll let you get. You can take this wherever you want. Sunny Dykes, Dave Aranda, Lance Leipold, Scott Satterfield, Deion Sanders. The win totals as I've got them written down right now. TCU six and a half. Baylor six and a half. Kansas at five and a half. Cincinnati at five and a half, Colorado at four and a half. Which one of those indicates to you a coach that is going to be under real pressure to be able to meet or exceed expectations?
- [61:32]
Chip Patterson
I mean, I think after Sonny Dyke's comments that he made over the weekend, it's. It's got to be Sonny Dykes at dcu, right? Like, you. You say that stuff all of a sudden, you're probably gonna have to back that up a little bit. And for those who. Who didn't. Who didn't see it.
- [61:48]
Tom Fornelli
Hold on. It was a commentary on Josh. If you want to get the quote, that'd be awesome. But he was making a commentary on Josh Hoover. Oh, Tom, you wrote about it on this weekend. Go ahead.
- [62:00]
Bud Elliott
He basically just said that, you know, they're trying to.
- [62:02]
Chip Patterson
They're there.
- [62:03]
Bud Elliott
It was kind of out of context, what he said, but he was saying that their focus is with their offensive coordinator change. They want to not turn the ball over as much. And what he said was, I mean, I think, you know, that, look, numbers are numbers and stats are stats. And I think, you know, look, for us, I think Josh started 31 games here as a quarterback, and we turned the ball over 40. He turned the ball over 42 times in those 31 starts.
- [62:25]
Tom Fornelli
He's not wrong.
- [62:26]
Bud Elliott
He's not. And actually, as I wrote about, he was actually kind of underselling it because that didn't include all the fumbles Hoover had that were recovered by tcu.
- [62:37]
Tom Fornelli
It is one of the big questions about Indiana. I mean you mentioned it in the, the Big Ten episode of. Oh a lot of excitement about Josh Hoover and Nick Marsh and you know that that Indiana offense continuing to build but can't turn the ball over like that.
- [62:53]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. If you just do overall fumbles, not fumbles lost, but fumbles and interceptions. He had 51 in 31 starts.
- [63:00]
Tom Fornelli
Wow, great call from Chuck in the tailgate. If you want to talk about coach under pressure, he called this one a double whammy. What if Hoover is good at Indiana and Kendall Briles has success at South Carolina, your old TCU offensive coordinator. Then it's all on Sunny who of course you know, offensive guy will be left left holding the bill for trying to make sure the Horn Frogs are having a successful season.
- [63:30]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, that. I mean I don't know how much success Kendall Browse is going to have but it's, it's not zero.
- [63:37]
Tom Fornelli
Well, I mean that's, I think that's the, the sort of. What is the worst possible case for Sonny Dykes? Your offense is not good. Your former quarterback and your former offensive coordinator are both having success. That's how you really ramp up the pressure and really start to. I mean I don't know what that we will do hot seat. True hot seat stuff later. But he got a new deal after making the national championship game. I've got to think that the numbers have started to tilt a little bit more to where if TCU does not have a good season those conversations become very real great. What about Dave Aranda when vote of confidence last year, right.
- [64:20]
Bud Elliott
I mean their, their win totals, what
- [64:22]
Tom Fornelli
like six and a half?
- [64:23]
Bud Elliott
Six and a half. So get to a bowl game. But I'm not Even sure honestly 6 and 6 really saves a rand. It probably depend on what the hot commodity is coming up. If there's anybody that seems like an obvious replacement. But I mean I, I look at these coaches that we're including here. I, I don't think Leipold gets fired If Kansas goes 5 and 7.
- [64:41]
Tom Fornelli
I don't think so either. That's truly like when we say coaches under pressure that's just like there's going to be people around your office, you know, like there's going to be interest from the athletic department, people standing in the back of press conferences kind of like this, you know, taking very note, making sure that they've got clear eyed view. You, you never really want that to be your working experience but especially after spending all that money on the Football Stadium renovations 5 and 7 results are not going to be. Not going to be meeting expectations.
- [65:15]
Bud Elliott
What I would wonder on these coaches is If Colorado goes 4 and 8, forget being fired, do we think Dion even comes back?
- [65:26]
Tom Fornelli
I'm not close enough to. I know this is a huge surprise, but I'm not close enough.
- [65:29]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. I don't know.
- [65:30]
Tom Fornelli
I mean, the health. That's like such another.
- [65:33]
Bud Elliott
Like what I'm saying. It's like, I. I just don't know if, like two years without his. Without Shador on his team, and he goes like, what, 7 and 17, like, are we gonna see a. A.
- [65:50]
Chip Patterson
I kind of doubt it, man. But I don't. I don't know all the factors driving that decision. I. I thought he would have been
- [65:58]
Tom Fornelli
out already after last season.
- [66:01]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, yeah. Or after Shador was gone.
- [66:05]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, right, exactly.
- [66:07]
Tom Fornelli
Remember Rick George, the athletic director who hired Deion Sanders and championed, you know, sort of like that. That effort and that success and, you know, being able to get to a place where you were finishing tied for first place in the Big 12 standings in the year that Travis Hunter won the Heisman Trophy and Shadors last year with the Buffs. He will be taking on an advisory role. So he's still around, but if any decisions need to be made or if there's going to be a move in another direction, he's. He's no longer going to be the one who is totally leading the charge on that one. I. I think that from the mechanic. I don't know the mechanics of the Colorado athletic department, but usually that's an indication that you could be preparing potentially to move in another direction. Undeniable success, though, to be able to get where you were from being one of the worst, worst in all of power conference. All right. Any other Big 12 win total takeaways,
- [67:14]
Bud Elliott
I mean, is. Is just kind of like what Ryan touched on at the start of the show. Pretty much everybody's between five and a half and eight and a half coin flip conference.
- [67:23]
Tom Fornelli
I say that lovingly. Arizona state at 6 and a half felt really low for.
- [67:30]
Bud Elliott
It does. But then the more you think about it, you're like, oh, no, that makes sense. Plenty of sense.
- [67:34]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah.
- [67:34]
Bud Elliott
I mean, Levitt's gone.
- [67:36]
Tom Fornelli
Jordan, Tyson, wide receivers. Yeah.
- [67:39]
Bud Elliott
Like, I. Who the hell did they get in. In the portal for? Like, I can't even remember at the top of my head. Hold on, let me look it up. So you've got Cameron Dyer as your projected starting quarterback. Question marks. I don't know. What are we gonna. You got. You got Any Cameron Dyer takes right now? Patterson?
- [67:54]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I do. Okay. It was a time where we did not think that Sam Levitt was a super like game breaking quarterback when Sam Levitt showed up and I thought Kenny Dillingham did a great job and Sam Levitt was now one of the biggest portal gets. He's the presumed starter for Lane Kiffin at lsu.
- [68:13]
Bud Elliott
I think I cut her goalie. Sorry. He's not on the our led step chart yet.
- [68:17]
Tom Fornelli
I think that that is what you have. I think that's what you in terms of the quarterback position what you have to be banking on if you are looking for Arizona State to exceed these expectations of six and a half wins. On the Vegas win total you are saying Kenny Dillingham did a great job of helping Sam Levitt take the next steps and develop into being one of the most sought after quarterbacks this off season. And that as Cutter Bowley shows and look Cutter showed us some things at Kentucky, you know like there were. You saw little flashes. You're like okay, this is, this is somebody who can get out there and sling it and be able to run the offense. You are really counting on those offensive development. The coaching chops of Dillingham is my, my thought on that one.
- [69:03]
Bud Elliott
Rd in the chat points out they had a pretty decent transfer class. He says he's taking them over. I would just point to Artie that you could take their over but you should be aware that they have road games against Texas A M, Texas Tech, BYU and then also UCF and it's not an easy place to go on the road. They've got to play Arizona where I over game at the end of the year in Tucson just there's a reason it's at six and a half.
- [69:27]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, for the, for the former Big 12 champions to be at six and a half stood out to me. But like you said Tom, a little bit of sort of unpacking it you just realized that the, the names, the faces, the players who were a big part of that success, they're either in the NFL, about to be drafted or playing elsewhere. Like yeah, playing for Lane Kiffin. So that's one that I've got my eye on because in the conference of five and a half to eight and a half Arizona State was the one where I just. I can't quit it. I can't help myself. I wonder if that's a, that's a potential where we get to see in the same way that he took that team from was in it three wins the year before they won it.
- [70:13]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, they came out of nowhere from
- [70:15]
Tom Fornelli
three wins to Big 12 champion. I'm just gonna, I'm gonna think that it's possible that we could see that again. So I like, I think not. I like, but Arizona State's an interesting one where I'm looking like we might have some upward mobility. Well, we're going to keep the conversation going on Wednesday where, if Vegas is right, takes a look at the Atlantic Coast Conference. Much like the Big 12, we've got a Miami division and then an everybody else division. But what about some of the new hires that we have throughout the conference? What about the expectations for coaches under pressure? We'll be breaking all that down Wednesday. Come join us 11am Eastern Time. YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fenelli. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Tom, thank you very much.
- [71:06]
Bud Elliott
Ill the comedy movie event of the year. Mike and Nick and Nick and Alice. Now streaming only on Hulu and Disney. Time to party.
- [71:14]
Tom Fornelli
That's a great attitude.
- [71:16]
Bud Elliott
It's a time traveling ass kicking movie event. You sound insane. Starring Vince Vaughn, James Marsden and Asa Gonzalez.
- [71:25]
Chip Patterson
I thought you were a clone.
- [71:26]
Bud Elliott
Well, clones aren't real, dummy.
- [71:27]
Chip Patterson
And time machines are super grounded in reality.
- [71:30]
Bud Elliott
Mike and Nick and Nick and Alice. Rated R. Written and directed by Ben David Grabinski. Only on Hulu and Hulu on Disney. For bundle subscribers.