← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
GROUP OF SIX WIN TOTALS | Latest Recruiting News | Future Of College Football 🏈
01:03:12
Loading summary
Transcript260 lines
- [00:00]
Bud Elliott
As a man, finding a great pair of pants feels harder than it should. Some look sharp but feel stiff. Others are comfortable but wrinkle, stain or lose their shape by noon. And if you're working, traveling, or constantly on the move, most pants just cannot keep up. That's where Jack Archer comes in.
- [00:16]
Chip Patterson
JackArcher.com delivers one pair of pants designed for real life. Whether it's golf with the guys or date night with someone special, these pants will keep you comfortable and and looking polished wherever the day takes you.
- [00:29]
Bud Elliott
That's right, Mark. The Jack Archer Jetsetter tech pant is wrinkle free, stain resistant and built to hold its shape all day. With customizable fit options and multiple colors, these are the one pair of pants you'll want to wear every day.
- [00:41]
Chip Patterson
Jack Archer Ready when you are. For a limited time, get 15% off your first order with code getjack@jackarcher.com Again, that's promo code getjackarcher.com for 15% off. You can your first order.
- [00:58]
Tom Fernelli
Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli,
- [01:03]
Bud Elliott
Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott.
- [01:06]
Tom Fernelli
It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between.
- [01:15]
Bud Elliott
CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
- [01:19]
Chip Patterson
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com 3and everywhere. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where Adam and Chris and Michael are all jumping in. We've got some commentary about those group of six win totals and just some, some nastiness. Come on, Michael. It's a Monday. Shame FSU got eliminated in their own regional. So Danny can't complain about the Women's College World series in OkC. I was not dialed into the the softball this week, were you was no cast on it?
- [02:05]
Tom Fernelli
No, I, we. I was watching the PGA on cbs.
- [02:08]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, same naturally. Great work, everybody.
- [02:12]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I actually thought that was really good on Sunday.
- [02:13]
Chip Patterson
It's tough. Lot of different golfers could have won that thing.
- [02:18]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [02:19]
Chip Patterson
You know, it's just, it was out there. Right. But credit to Aaron Rye. I mean he, he stepped up and hit some stone shots to be able
- [02:26]
Tom Fernelli
to win that thing, that putt was insane. Like whoever is producing that now did a much better job. I think of like I felt like they were showing me the guys who had a real chance to win it and like kind of curating that super compressed thing. And they would still show like when Xander makes the bomb on 16 or 17, although he's kind of out. Like there's still, that's a cool shot to see. But like it was, we weren't lingering on guys too long who didn't have enough holes to really make up the difference. And I thought it was cool.
- [02:53]
Bud Elliott
And you know, the producers woke up in a cold sweat on Sunday morning trying to figure out how the hell they're going to balance, like 30 guys being in contention for five hours.
- [03:01]
Chip Patterson
I mean, Justin Thomas was in a cold sweat whether or not it was time to crack that, that beer open, you know, did y' all catch that one? Him telling the story about being in Hartford with the clubhouse lead, thinking no one was gonna, someone was gonna pass him. Had a nice little lunch, couple beers. Then all of a sudden, oh no, you might be in a playoff. JT sat on that 65 for what, two and a half hours almost. Yeah. But yeah, great job everybody. Congrats to first time major winner Aaron Rye. Major championship season moves on with Shinnecock at the US Open and the PGA Tour season moves on with TPC Craig Wright. We're at Craig Ranch next.
- [03:40]
Tom Fernelli
Yep.
- [03:41]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, America's major, let's go.
- [03:44]
Chip Patterson
But that's not what we're here to talk about today. Check out Scorecard of course with Joe Musso, Shane Bacon for all the latest on the PGA Championship. We will, as the headline suggests, be doing our same if Vegas is right analysis with our early look at group of six win totals. Because if you have been paying attention, some of the larger shops and the ones that we are going to be grabbing Here are from DraftKings. DraftKings did post in the last week, 10 days or so the win total bet options for the Group of six, some conference title odds for the Group of six. So this will be a great opportunity for us to expand from beyond the power conferences. So before we get into some if Vegas is right with an eye on the PAC 12, the American, the Mountain West, Sunbelt, Mac and so much more. Now just some quick news items from around college football. Now the first one is regrettably part of the larger conversation that has no answers. So let's buckle up and get excited for that one. But Brandon Marcelo reporting last week and we appreciate this. He continues to advance. He gave us the White House talking points and now we know that there is an expectation that we will have a new bipartisan bill that is Expected to supplant the SCORE act in Congress. Committee hearings to follow. We don't know the official language yet, but the reason why there is some urgency two, two fold here. Number one, the SCORE act is set to be on the House floor this week. Now, legal experts believe they don't have enough votes for the Senate. So it ain't going to become a law. You know, what a shock. I'm just a bill on Capitol Hill. We're not going to take you through the whole lesson on how a bill becomes a law, but if it ain't going to get through the Senate, it ain't going to pass. So we've got this other White House supported, Democrat supported, Republican supported bill. We don't know exactly what's in it, but I think based on some of the talking points, we can understand what they are looking to address. They are looking to address boosters being able to go around a salary cap. They are looking to provide the antitrust exemptions that allow the NCAA to, to create a new structure for the future of college sports without being sued to oblivion. Happy? We got billable hour here, billable hours here, bud. Haven't, haven't had to like insert a coin and press D3 in a while. So let me head to the legal vending machine. Do. What do you think are the moving pieces on the board that can get us to some sort of congressional action, if there is any that you could see happening?
- [06:27]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I, I don't know. I mean, we, obviously we're being asked to speculate here, so you would have to kind of work backwards. Like what in the SCORE act is not going to get through the Senate, Right. My guess here is some of the employment, like, antitrust protection stuff. And yet Marcelo's article, which I thought he did a great job on, I mean, like, he's, he's writing off a memo without specifics. So like that, like a great job on getting the memo. Second, like Marcelo's, he's not going to just guess in an article, right? I guess we'll, we'll guess a little bit about Marcelo's article and what might be coming here from Cantwell and Cruz. They've been working on this for a while, allegedly. So it says antitrust protection. I'd be like, interested to see like the, the scope of that. Maybe it's a lot more limited. You know, can you really. Are you going to tell these private businesses they can't invest money in these athletes? I guess you in theory could. Would that survive a legal challenge? I have My doubts. Right. Are we going to have employment protections? Are we going to have collective bargaining? Like the way to truly enforce a salary cap is to have it be collectively bargained. I don't know if that's going to happen. So again, if that's not going to happen, I don't know if a salary cap is truly going to happen. Some people in the comments here think this is all performative. Maybe it is. My, my biggest thing though is if they really think they've got something, they'll pass both. It's probably more limited than what the SCORE act was.
- [07:54]
Chip Patterson
Right. And this. So the SCORE act, the, the bits of pushback. I mean, because it is going to be debated this week and on the house floor like athletes.org I mean I'm not, I am not in for athletes.org it was literally an email that. Just like a PR email that just had my in inbox. But among the pieces of criticism that they are offering is stripping athletes of their ability to collectively bargain and represent themselves that what is said to be promoting. Right. Again, I'm just offering the voice of the criticism there to back up what you're saying. It does seem as though keeping yourself free from legal challenges probably means you cannot totally shackle athletes and their rights and what they can do.
- [08:40]
Tom Fernelli
Right. Nor coaches by the way, don't think we're going to get a coaching compensation cap here.
- [08:45]
Chip Patterson
I don't think that's part of this congressional action.
- [08:48]
Tom Fernelli
I would agree. The other thing that I would look at is not that prediction markets are like the absolute source of truth, but the odds that of the House as far as Democrats taking House have been going down a little bit based on recent things in recent weeks. It's not a politics podcast, but you do need to follow this if you want to kind of guess at where the sport is going. So how do both sides see what might happen with the midterms in terms of what they're willing to say yes to right now versus forecasting, you know, what the makeup of those chambers is going to be, you know, a year from now and maybe tackle it then?
- [09:26]
Chip Patterson
I don't know.
- [09:27]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, it's so hard to really comment on any of it when we don't know what's in any of it. Like they hadn't even released it yet. Like the memo that Brandon wrote about or was it Friday?
- [09:37]
Chip Patterson
Yep.
- [09:38]
Bud Elliott
It's just like, yeah, they, they plan to release it sometime early next week. So we don't even know that they are going to release it early this week. This Might just be, you know, something that they float out there and then never comes.
- [09:50]
Chip Patterson
What do you, Tom, do you believe deep down that Congressional action is going to be an end result? Because if you want to put some dates on this, like Congress is going to recess in early August. There is a window for them to be able to go. I mean, it is hot and swampy up there right now. Boy, you want to talk about drain the swamp? It's as swampy as D.C. gets right now. They're going to be in there, they're gritting and grinding. They're sweating it out. You think they can actually get something done that will impact college sports?
- [10:26]
Bud Elliott
I don't know. I. I think that it's hard to imagine Congress, as it's currently constructed, ever being able to work together on anything, because they typically don't. But I also feel like uniquely like, and I don't say this complimentary in a uniquely American way, the one thing that we could get them to all start working on is, well, we got to fix football. Because, like, that's. That's the one thing that, like, you could look at this country right now, that's the one thing that'll actually get people's attention, it seems like. So maybe, you know, this is a great way for everybody that's there to cater to their. Their voter base to say, look what we did for football paid. Don't pay any attention to anything else. So maybe, yeah, they could get that. I mean, there is bipartisan support behind whatever the hell this thing that is supposedly going to be released today. I mean, it's Cantwell on the Democrat side, it's Cruz on the Republican side. DeSantis is running the whole thing. So I don't know, like, I. I don't know if they'll get it done. I definitely think they want you to think they're working toward getting it done, though.
- [11:26]
Chip Patterson
I've got one thing that stands out to me as potentially significant or important that I can put my hands around. All of this congressional support would be a lifeline for the NCAA as an organization for existence.
- [11:42]
Bud Elliott
Yes.
- [11:43]
Chip Patterson
One of the ways that we've been talking about the future of college football, in kind of our brainstorming, no bad ideas mindset, is like, oh, and then the NCAA will just die, or the NCAA will just exist, or we'll create a new entity that will replace the ncaa, whether it's the SCORE act, whether it is, you know, a new bipartisan bill, it to me, what I have picked up and what I feel confident in and like you mentioned, Tom, when we're talking about reports of memos, there's very little that we can actually feel confident in in terms of the nuts and bolts of this thing. All congressional action points to the NCAA not going away. If no congressional action happens now, we start talking about a future of like maybe a more privatized and maybe something that's a little bit more self enclosed, something that's a little bit more probably exclusive when we're talking about, you know, the highest levels of college sports. So if you, I don't know if the COVID 3 tailgate is a champion of the NCAA or a supporter of the ncaa. I know that they recognize and support and honor, you know, the Mount Rushmore of college football playoff selection committees and the way that we respect the committee members process and understand what Wesley Walls meant to the tough decisions that had to be made in the 2025 season inside that committee room. But the NCAA, I don't know if they're huge supporters of the NCAA. So this, that is the one thing of all these different reports and everything that I've dug into is that all congressional action keeps the NCAA alive. And if you think that's good for the betterment of college athletics, then yeah, go ahead. If you would like to see the NCAA go away, you want this to be gridlocked because the only other way to push this thing forward is for the most powerful, the most resourced schools say, all right, well fine, we're going to go make our own thing. I don't know if that's a good thing, but it's just the way that I see it is that am I, am I off to your eye?
- [13:51]
Tom Fernelli
I thought what Bubba said was, was probably still what's going to happen, right?
- [13:55]
Chip Patterson
Bifurcation.
- [13:57]
Tom Fernelli
You're going to have pay for play and you're gonna have pay to play, I think in some sense. And then the schools are going to have the freedom to decide which sports they still want to support. And the schools being like university dollars and donor dollars as well, like while tennis or rowing or whatever might lose you money on the field and in the concession stand and in the gate and whatnot, there might be like actual institutional value to having those programs, to offering scholarships for those programs or maybe some additional dollars for those programs, or maybe they're not right. Maybe, hey, we'll still have these if you pay to play them, much like you're going to pay to play travel ball in youth sports.
- [14:38]
Chip Patterson
Right?
- [14:39]
Tom Fernelli
And I think that's, that's probably how it should be. You know, there's very clearly, like, college football and men's college basketball make money. Right. There's probably a small handful of women's college basketball programs who you could. You could argue actually make money. And then there's a, you know, a decent chunk of baseball programs, mostly in the Southeast, that probably actually make some money. Everything else is kind of subsidized club at the collegiate level. From an actual dollars and cents like, you know, balance sheet standpoint in college, I think that's probably where this goes long term.
- [15:16]
Bud Elliott
More European model.
- [15:18]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, sure
- [15:20]
Chip Patterson
does. Is it the Ivy League that doesn't do scholarships?
- [15:25]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, I think there might be another league, but Ivy League definitely does not do athletic scholarships.
- [15:29]
Chip Patterson
Athletic scholarships. So, I mean, in a sense, you are paying.
- [15:33]
Bud Elliott
They do academic and rich daddy scholarships, but not athletic.
- [15:37]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Chances are you could do it. Yeah,
- [15:44]
Tom Fernelli
sorry. Right. Look, people are pointing out like kind of very edge cases here. Nebraska, volleyball, you know, maybe Penn State wrestling. Sir. And you know, be the best position, like, to decide if this makes money, if this makes sense. The schools, on an individual basis. Yeah. They'd also save a lot of money, like not traveling all over Hell's half Acre for programs that don't make money.
- [16:06]
Chip Patterson
I think that that is also that. That does seem to be the common. It is not item 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.
- [16:12]
Tom Fernelli
Right.
- [16:12]
Chip Patterson
But it does seem that in the restructuring of college sports, I don't care whether you're Democrat, Republican, Green Party agnostic, everyone seems to agree that sending all of these Olympic teams all over the country, it's a bad use of resources.
- [16:27]
Tom Fernelli
So we'd like, from a federal standpoint, if you're really worried about the Olympic teams falling apart, A, I think that's overblown because we also train a lot of the other, like a lot of the world's Olympic players in our collegiate system. Right. And B, there's a lot of money in the federal system. If they wanted to pump a little bit extra and to make sure the Olympic teams do pretty well, I bet you they could get some bipartisan support for that.
- [16:50]
Bud Elliott
When you see Lithuania standing up there getting their bronze medal in basketball, you could thank Brad Underwood in the University of Illinois, Ladies and gentlemen, when. When Vic Hot.
- [17:01]
Chip Patterson
When Vic Hovland was still had his game together, was wearing all that Oklahoma State gear. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. Oh, good. Joey hasn't let go of the wig party yet. Stay strong, Joey.
- [17:17]
Tom Fernelli
How do you get around Title nine with this? I think you get around it by Title 7 if you get to employment like Title 7 governs employment, not educational opportunities. Right?
- [17:26]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [17:26]
Tom Fernelli
So, like, what about Title 9? I'm like, play it under Title 7
- [17:29]
Bud Elliott
if you can, you know. Do you know why title seven beats title nine?
- [17:34]
Tom Fernelli
Because 789.
- [17:35]
Bud Elliott
Exactly. Yes.
- [17:39]
Tom Fernelli
It's a Monday.
- [17:42]
Chip Patterson
Coming up on the other side. Coming up on the other side. Hey. Hey. Doing something about performative. A performative I. A commitment on the recruiting trail that does have some very significant impact for some of the biggest programs in the country. And our first look at the group of six win totals and more nukes. Ready to soundtrack your summer with Red Bull Summer All Day Play? You choose a playlist that fits your summer vibe the best. Are you a festival fanatic, a deep bend dj, a road dog, or a trail mixer? Just add a song to your chosen playlist and put your summer on track. Red Bull Summer All Day Play. Red Bull gives you wings. Visit red bull.com brightsummarahead to learn more. See you this summer. Make every get together chill this Memorial Day. Get up to an extra thousand dollars off select top brand appliances like LG. Plus, get free delivery at the Home Depot Tackle pool towels and camp laundry with a large capacity in style with the fridge serving craft ice, mini craft ice, cubed ice and crushed ice. Shop appliance Savings now through June 3rd at the Home Depot. Offer valid May 14th through June 3rd, US only. Free delivery on appliance purchases of $998 or more. See store online for details. This summer, serve up the cookout classics, Heinz ketchup and Kraft singles. Every good burger needs a layer of preference. Perfectly melty cheese and thick, rich ketchup. We all know it's not a cookout without Heinz and Kraft. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. A big recruiting news from over the weekend. We were excited to be able to offer it over at CBS Sports HQ. It's the number three overall player in the class of 2027. Let's watch Mark Matthews do his commitment. Okay. Oh, he's throwing a Texas A and M hat. Is he throwing. Is he. Is that a Miami hat? No, he's throwing that. Oh, gosh. Oh, gosh. Now we're. Now we got a cowboy hat and a Texas A and M and we're standing up, we're flexing. Oh, man. Okay, so let's go. That is your number one offensive tackle. Number one offensive lineman according to 24. 7 sports rankings. And after throwing a Texas A and M hat and after throwing a Miami hat, we've revealed the Texas A and M jersey. Quite performative. There St. Thomas Aquinas, no stranger to putting out five star prospects, some of the best players in the country, but have you gotten your eyes on Matthews or what is. Yeah, okay. All right, so let's fill us in on the, the player we're talking about here because, man, he's, he's got, he's got a lot, a lot of energy coming from that commitment ceremony.
- [20:35]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, look, Matthew's a stud, man. I mean, he's a guy who I would expect to come in and start day one at Texas A M and I, I'd expect to get, they get at least like two, you know, first or second team all SEC seasons out of him. I, I suspect that's what, that's what they paid for and what the expectation is, and I think he's got the ability to go in there and do that. You know, when we talk about, you know, paying seven figures immediately to a high school offensive lineman, that's kind of the expectation. And I think, you know, if you can figure out who has the ability to do that, he fits that bill. Right? Like, that's a guy that you're just not going to be able to get in the transfer portal for, for multiple years, most likely because he's going to be scooped up by another school if you don't get him out of high school and they're going to re up him early if he hits. And he's just never really likely going to be on the market. He's been like a very well known commodity now for not three years, but like at least two, you know, as always, like flash, like high level ability for his size, like a really good athlete, like, not, like no bad weight, not sloppy. I think he's actually got room to get bigger and stronger. And I mean like, very, very competitive guy. And we were down at future 52 years ago and he, I thought he had a really good day and then he lost like, I think two or three reps in a row. His feet kind of got kind of got crossed and, and he got, he got put on his butt and he was like, really upset about it. And I was like, dude, come here for a second. And so I had the video on my phone of Will Campbell getting his butt whipped, right, like six years ago or whatever when he was a sophomore, future 50. I was like, this guy just went number three in the draft, right? This is a padless pass pro setting, you know, like it's gonna happen. He went third in the draft, like just kind of.
- [22:21]
Chip Patterson
Okay.
- [22:21]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. I was like, it's a Lot of reps to go today, man. Like, keep having fun, you know, and like, it's cool to see him go, you know, go to a. M. I know he was high on them and. Yeah, man, like that. Good kid to talk to and really high level ability.
- [22:35]
Bud Elliott
He went to St. Thomas Aquinas. Thomas Aquinas, Barry, you know, if you don't know who he is. Philosopher. He's a saint now, but he was, he was a big proponent of that, like, truth is to be accepted, you know, no matter where it's found. So I'm going to speak some truth here. Don't like that video. Don't like it. He's an offensive lineman. He's a little too. A little too. Look at me. To play on my offensive line. If you're playing offensive line for me, I don't want anyone to notice you. I want you to be invisible. I don't want the refs to see you. I don't want none of that crap. The only time I want to see you is in the film room when you're pancaking somebody two days after the game. All right? That's all I want to see from you. It's a little too show me. Going to have to. We're going to have to conform a little bit. You're acting like a defensive lineman out there. Come on now, get it together. Hat doesn't even fit.
- [23:18]
Tom Fernelli
Have you seen, like the social media reel where it's like. Like they show the offensive tackle getting drafted and, and it's like, all right, congrats, guys. It's the only footage you'll ever see of him without a helmet on. He's going to go, you know, retreat to his ice fishing. Ice fishing lodge, have nine kids and play in the Pro bowl for 10 years and disappear. And then the witness traction broke. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [23:39]
Bud Elliott
That's what I want.
- [23:41]
Chip Patterson
Okay, well, if I'm going to. If I'm gonna be a little reckless here and, you know, extend some things. We have seen five stars from the state of Florida make commitments. They do not always hold through signing day. That is a competitive recruiting environment. You think, you think the Aggies are able to hold on to Matthews all the way to pen to paper?
- [24:04]
Tom Fernelli
I, I think their checks cash and they've done a pretty good job putting guys in the league. So I. I'm going to lean to.
- [24:10]
Bud Elliott
Yes.
- [24:10]
Tom Fernelli
Maybe there's twists and turns. The season's got to play out, but I would think so.
- [24:16]
Chip Patterson
You mentioned that you knew that he had been high on Texas A and M. You know, so it's obviously. Look, Texas A and M has always had the infrastructure, but I do think that Mike Elko and this staff, have. They. They seem to. I don't know. Can. Can you tell? Do they. They seem to have a fire under their ass. They're doing a lot of work and they're getting a lot of work done. They hold on to everybody. This is going to be a real, real good class. Is it going to be number one forever like it is now?
- [24:43]
Bud Elliott
No.
- [24:43]
Chip Patterson
I mean, who knows what will happen in terms of some of the usual suspects making their predictable charges a lot of which is going to happen. What, Bud? In the next eight weeks.
- [24:53]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. Quite a few official visit season coming up.
- [24:56]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. So I do is. This is. How would you grade Mike Elko and his staff in terms of their recruiting operation? As it's sort of like functioning even under the hood, if that makes sense.
- [25:07]
Tom Fernelli
I would say like an A. Right. They're crushing it. They're currently number one. You. You saw Matthews in the press conference there, say he's going to go out and target Kaden Henderson, who's a, you know, stud linebacker out of the Tampa area and see if they can get him to come over to Texas A and M as well. I think he's doing a great job. And, you know, they're. They're seeming to try to focus on the positions in the portal that, you're right, are in high school that are difficult to get in the portal. You know, like, I think they're building this thing, the quote unquote, right way, if there's such a thing. And there's clearly pressured, like, not get outstaged by Texas. Right. You've lost a Texas last two times you played them probably last three. Right. Because I remember there was the whole thing of like. Like the last time they played A and M loss and like before the big break where they didn't play for a while.
- [25:54]
Chip Patterson
Oh, so you're stretching back to 11.
- [25:56]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [25:57]
Chip Patterson
Okay.
- [25:57]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. So I don't think they're going anywhere. They're not willing to see the state of Texas.
- [26:04]
Bud Elliott
Texas has 13 straight, correct? Yeah.
- [26:09]
Chip Patterson
So good news for Texas A and M. You saw Oklahoma up there on the team rankings, Notre Dame up there on the team rankings. Is there from generally in the. On the recruiting trail. Are there any other teams that you're kind of keeping an eye on now as we're about to get into June here after Memorial Day and into really the meat of official visit season?
- [26:30]
Tom Fernelli
You want to see how much UCLA can hold on to. They're currently, you know, top five in recruiting rankings. You know, obviously, depending on where you look, we have them top five right now at 24, seven. You know, Kentucky will be one that I expect to fall, you know, pretty hard. They're largely up there on volume with 15 commits, but, you know, 13 of those are, are three stars. And you go down the list a little bit, there's some teams that have not really made their moves yet, you know, and, or Texas Tech's at 9. I imagine Texas Tech will be making some noise. You know, ole Ms. Has nine. They're not, they're not a lot of schools right now that only have like 4 or 5. So, you know, kind of that 8, 9 range is sort of the, the low bar right now. Georgia's out there with seven. I, I don't think Georgia is going to finish outside of the top. Where we at? I'll make a friendly wage with the guys. I don't think George is going to finish 30th in the high school recruit rankings this year. Just, just a hunch, buddy.
- [27:23]
Chip Patterson
You could have said third and we could have talked like decent odds on that bet. I mean, I just until, I mean, what did they. What is the ceiling for a Georgia recruiting class? Seventh.
- [27:34]
Bud Elliott
I mean, floor.
- [27:35]
Chip Patterson
Oh, yeah. Floor. Excuse me. Ceilings. One, obviously. Thank you, Tom.
- [27:42]
Tom Fernelli
I would say like in this new era, top 10.
- [27:45]
Bud Elliott
Right.
- [27:45]
Tom Fernelli
Just because like you, you got to factor in. Are they going to have to hit the portal next year hard or not? Which of the guys are going to be making the, you know, GoPro early decisions? Do they have to, like, what are their in house options? They like, like, we know they paid a lot to keep guys around on this current 2026 roster. How many of those guys are still there next year? How many go to the draft either because they're aging out or because they are not aging out, but eligibility out or because they decide to go pro early. That's probably going to make some of these decisions. They were a little bit higher. They lost a big time DB to Miami recently. Miami flipped him. It's, it's fun to follow. It's harder to follow now than it used to be because there are more teams who are actually like in the game.
- [28:25]
Chip Patterson
Like you're saying it was easier to follow the biggest recruiting battles because it was the same teams fighting for the same players.
- [28:31]
Tom Fernelli
Yes. Yeah. The certain teams who had the NFL development and were willing to play the game once they offered. It's okay. That's kind of an if not Win or a win, not if situation here and now. Like there's a lot more teams that are competing.
- [28:45]
Chip Patterson
Yep, very interesting. Of course. Head over to 247 Sports for all the latest from the recruiting trail. Coming up on the other side, we've got group of six win totals out in the marketplace. What does it say about some of these teams as we look ahead to the 2026 season and more?
- [29:07]
Bud Elliott
Next.
- [29:11]
Tom Fernelli
You don't wash your jersey during a win streak. You don't switch seats when your team's up big, and you definitely don't shave during the playoffs. When things are working, you don't change them. That's why when you drink Jagermeister, you drink it ice cold.
- [29:24]
Chip Patterson
Anything else, well, that'd just be bad luck.
- [29:27]
Tom Fernelli
Drink it cold or don't drink it at all. Jagermeister.
- [29:30]
Bud Elliott
Damn, that's cold.
- [29:32]
Tom Fernelli
Drink responsibly. Jagermeister liquor 35% alcohol by volume. Imported by Matt Jagermeister, US White Plains, NY.
- [29:42]
Chip Patterson
This episode is brought to you by State Farm. You know those friends who support your preference for podcasts over music on road trips? That's the energy State Farm brings to insurance. With over 19,000 local agents, they help you find the coverage that fits your needs so you can spend less time worrying about insurance and more time enjoying the ride. Download the State Farm app or go online@state farm.com like a good neighbor, State Farm is there back here on the COVID 3 podcast. And as the win totals began to trickle out, we already got a little bit of if Vegas is Right. Of course, our win totals predictions and our further analysis will be coming a little bit later on in the off season as we really ramp up and get you set for the beginning of the 2026 season. If Vegas is right is a way for us to survey sort of a large collection of win totals and sort of see what they what these numbers might say about the teams, their strengths, the schedules that they're playing, and so much more. I've got a couple teams that I wanted to draw our attention to and begin the conversation. If there is anybody who jumps out to you, Tom Bud, please feel free to grab the wheel and take us there. But the first one really got me I it. I was a fan of the Flex 12th game until now. I'm out. I'm totally out. Pac 12. You remember Flex Week? We talked about it.
- [31:11]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, yeah.
- [31:12]
Chip Patterson
We only got 11 games on the win total. It's an incomplete win total. Boise State at DraftKings has a win total of 7 1/2 with a big old asterisk noting that that is a win total of 7 1/2 on an 11 game schedule. Because we do not know who the 12th game will be. We do know that they've got Maddox Madsen back. We know they've got a reworked receiver room. It's a big year for that offense. We know that. As you see here on the screen@YouTube.com cover3, San Diego State, who you would maybe argue is the next best team in the Pac12, possibly in terms of overall strength, that game is going to be on the Smurf turf. That game is going to be at Albertson Stadium in Boise on November 21st. They do have to go to Fresno, which I guess you could say, and maybe that's a spot where they trip up. But, but I see Boise State as probably the best team in the conference by a touchdown or on a neutral, which I mean is seven and a half. Again, it was jarring. I had to remember that it was 11. I had to remember they play Oregon and Memphis in the non con. What does this tell you about Boise State? Are our brains trying to fast forward Boise State to a conference championship faster than what the actual data would suggest?
- [32:34]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, I think there are some potential trouble spots here, right? Like maybe Fresno is decent. San Diego State I think should have their best team so far under Sean Lewis, but they have to play Texas State. Texas State, to me that's a step up in talent like week to week compared to what you see in the Sun Belt. Depending on your, on your draw, travel is going to be a little bit weird for them. But Texas State also, like that's a lot of travel out east now they're doing more of the travel, you know, out west. I, I don't think Boise is mispriced here. You get Madsen back, you get a bunch of offensive linemen back. They did a pretty good job this year with, with retention. I mean they're one of your playoff favorites for a reason. Even if you get stomped like at Oregon, you have a nice kind of feather in your cap. You're able to win the game against Memphis, Memphis obviously one of the favorites there in the American. I, I think they should be, you know, I, I think it's appropriately priced.
- [33:31]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, like when, when you look at the G6 leagues these days, there's a whole lot of volatility kind of built in because you don't know like with, with all the way that the rosters get rated. Some teams are always going to surprise you and some might, you know, fall back a little bit. And that's even. It's just magnified now that even though, you know, a lot of these schools were in the same league together, now that they're basically in a new conference, it's hard to know for sure how things are going to play out. But I do look at the Pac12 in 2026, and I think Boise and SDSU are probably your two best teams. Then after that, I don't have a great feel, so I would say just seven and a half. So we're looking at eight and three, nine and two or ten and one or better. You know, I would lean over. Like, I feel like if they don't go over this number, it's been a pretty, like, surprisingly disappointing year for Boise State to that point, because, like Bud mentioned, they are a favorite for the G6 spot for the playoff right now, and I don't think they're getting it with that if they're 7 and 4 after 11 games. So, yeah, I think you have to go over this number or else you're. You're having a bad season.
- [34:37]
Chip Patterson
I thought Maddox Madsen, when he was in the offensive backfield two years ago with Ashton Genty, not a lot was asked of him. I think that last season you were maybe looking for a little bit more than he was able to give you, but he got hurt in the middle of that year, and when he went out of the lineup, boy, that offense tanked. And so it took a little while for him to get right circle back. We'll see with a full, full season of health what that would do for that Boise State offense. Again, the. The numbers that are out are telling you kind of what y' all are saying. Boise State's gonna start the year as the team to beat in that conference. Feels like it's. Feels like it's appropriate. But seven and a half. Again, I think it's because of the 11 games. Right. You know, if you. If there was a 12th game on there and that 12th game was, see, who would it be?
- [35:32]
Bud Elliott
San Diego State again, no, like, if
- [35:37]
Chip Patterson
the 12th game was not another one of those, you know, flex matchups, but a game where they were. A conference game where they were a favorite, we'd be looking at eight and a half as the win total, right?
- [35:46]
Bud Elliott
Yes. Yeah.
- [35:48]
Chip Patterson
Eight and a half. When you have to play Oregon and Memphis, feels like a more appropriate win total for a group of six conference champion. So, again, just remember, keep that one in mind. A little bit of a PSA for the Pac 12 out there. That's the Pac 12 refund forms any. Can we just keep rocking and rolling? How do you all want to tackle this? Okay. I think is Navy our favorite in the American.
- [36:15]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [36:19]
Chip Patterson
How good are you feeling about that?
- [36:23]
Tom Fernelli
Not like I. I think there's probably. All right. Navy could win it.
- [36:31]
Chip Patterson
Correct.
- [36:31]
Tom Fernelli
Memphis could win it. I think Tulane could win it.
- [36:36]
Chip Patterson
Wow.
- [36:36]
Tom Fernelli
Memphis could win it. Army could win it. I think USF could win it. They got a lot of good players back despite the fact they lost them to Auburn. And then I think East Carolina could win it.
- [36:48]
Chip Patterson
So you're out on utsa.
- [36:50]
Tom Fernelli
No, UTSA went right. Okay. So that's where everybody can win. Did I just name nine?
- [36:57]
Chip Patterson
Here's. Here's where I'm at.
- [36:59]
Tom Fernelli
Rice, Tulsa, Charlotte. Who else here should not like is almost certainly not going to win. I don't think FAU is going to win it. I'd be shocked if North Texas want to get given what they lost. I'm probably missing a team here.
- [37:11]
Chip Patterson
I see. I'm throwing. I'm throwing North Tex. Apologies to the mean green, but, like, you just had the sun run. Historic year. Right. I mean, when. When you are at that place and you have a historical average of where you are, and then you have your spike and you lose your coach and your quarterback and what running back to. Right. A lot of other players. If we're talking about winning the conference. Top tier of the conference. I'm sorry, but I'm. I'm gonna put North Texas. No, I'm not going to put them at. Even at a crowded table. I'm not ready to put them there.
- [37:46]
Tom Fernelli
Oh, Temple's the other one that I don't. Oh, we got. We have it on screen now. Okay, cool. Temple's the other one I do not
- [37:51]
Bud Elliott
think will win, but anybody else. You can't just replace Evan Simon. Shout out Sharon.
- [37:59]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, shout out to Sharon. Let's go. Cherry and white.
- [38:02]
Tom Fernelli
It's pretty wide open.
- [38:06]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. This is. I mean, I will. This will sound disrespectful as hell, but it's just the obvious truth. I feel like if you go into the season and Navy is the favorite to win your league, that's not a great sign for your league.
- [38:19]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Because you've got new. I think the coaching turnover really creates a hiccup where if you are Navy, you're excited. Oh, now's our chance. Because if you. Tulane and Memphis, are those the most recent, like, traditionally. I know traditionally is always a weird word to say with the conference that has undergone as much change as the American has. But aren't Memphis. Yes. Tulane also probably. Those are like some of the most resourced, advantaged.
- [38:55]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [38:55]
Chip Patterson
Programs in the conference.
- [38:57]
Tom Fernelli
And I, I think Memphis spends more than two.
- [38:59]
Bud Elliott
Lane, put those odds back up.
- [39:02]
Chip Patterson
Hey, be nice to striker.
- [39:03]
Bud Elliott
Striker.
- [39:04]
Tom Fernelli
Do it.
- [39:04]
Bud Elliott
Put them up.
- [39:05]
Tom Fernelli
All right.
- [39:06]
Bud Elliott
Thank you. Oh, it's Memphis. It's six to one. This is not the topic of today, but can we not argue that Memphis made a coaching upgrade going from Ryan Silverfield to Charles Huff, given what Huff was able to do at Southern Miss in his first year there. And I see them sitting there at 6 to 1. I'm not saying it's like a no doubt duh, this team should be the favorite, but just as a value standpoint in a league like this, with their resources, with, with the new coaching staff, I kind of look at that Memphis and say, I also like UTSA sitting there at +425. I don't know.
- [39:41]
Tom Fernelli
I would push back a little bit. Like, I think you. I think it's possible that they made a coaching upgrade. I'm not convinced that they did. Like, wasn't Huff almost going to get fired at Marshall?
- [39:51]
Chip Patterson
No. He won the conference on the way out. He was. He was in trouble, but he won the conference at Marshall, took the team Marshall to Southern Miss. And then after like being okay. I would say that it wasn't the most emphatic finish.
- [40:08]
Bud Elliott
No, he was out the door.
- [40:09]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [40:10]
Bud Elliott
He was getting ready to leave.
- [40:11]
Chip Patterson
I think he saw opportunities were a. Buzzing just, just the way that I saw it. But I do think that you could say Huff in the last two seasons has done enough to give Tom a little bit of thought that there could be an upgrade from where they were and that. Or how about this? That Charles Huff with Memphis support could be a problem in the American. Whether it's ready. Yeah. Whether it's ready to click right away. I. I'm curious about that as well.
- [40:46]
Tom Fernelli
The.
- [40:46]
Chip Patterson
Go ahead.
- [40:47]
Tom Fernelli
The American is the most wide open league, by the way. If you look at the odds.
- [40:52]
Chip Patterson
Can you give me the only longer odds? And there's more teams with longer odds. Like the pie is split up like that.
- [40:57]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. Like the second most wide open is the Mac with western Michigan at +320. The most wide open power conference is who?
- [41:10]
Chip Patterson
Well, it's not the ACC and it is not the Big 12.
- [41:13]
Tom Fernelli
It's the SEC.
- [41:14]
Chip Patterson
SEC? Yeah.
- [41:15]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [41:16]
Tom Fernelli
Georgia's plus 260.
- [41:19]
Bud Elliott
So the SEC is the American of the power four.
- [41:23]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. Like if you did the same exercise not to make this show about, about before. But I mean there's what, there's nine teams I think you could see like if they had an absolute dream season, stayed fully healthy, could win the sec.
- [41:36]
Bud Elliott
No, I mean they, they imported all those AAC coaches and now they got AACC disease.
- [41:44]
Tom Fernelli
Got.
- [41:44]
Chip Patterson
It's like when you invite the Q
- [41:45]
Bud Elliott
Center, they just, they just let the hantavirus dock right there and bring everybody back on land.
- [41:51]
Tom Fernelli
I mean like I could make you an SC championship case for Tennessee. I don't think it's going to happen, but I, I can't make you one for Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Kentucky. If one of those two Tennessee five star freshmen end up playing like an absolute NFL guy from day one in that offense and the defense has improved a lot, like it's unlikely. But I, I mean, you know, it's 20 to 1 for a reason, not 200 to 1.
- [42:17]
Chip Patterson
And that's awesome. I love that, I love that optimism because we know sure it's going to be Georgia, Texas or Alabama at the end of this. Sure they'll be on a great 9 and 3 season if the freshman wide receivers hit and if, you know, the defense is better under Jim Knowles. Yeah, absolutely. But I don't know how we're going to get there, but it's going to be Georgia, Texas or Alabama sitting there playing in Atlanta. We'll see. For the UTSA side of this, I like the UTSA shout. The UTSA win total is at seven and a half at DraftKings right now. Over minus 125, under minus 105. Within the context of how are you going to win the coin flips. You've got a quarterback in Owen McCown who threw 55 touchdowns over the last two seasons when he is in rhythm and I mean we're not talking about somebody who's dicing you up with insane NFL throws outside the numbers. But Owen McCown in rhythm with the underneath game, operating the offense like that, that can be something that's a difference maker. The experience is something that's a difference maker. Now you may say the same Owen McCown who's led a 76 football team for the last two years, what the heck happened with those six losses? Fair. Totally hear you. But in a wide open conference, when you've got a quarterback with his third year in the system and strengths and weaknesses that seem to be fully identified, UTSA has found itself on the outside looking in in this conference. And I think that at least in terms of the team there, you've got A chance for them to be able to have a pretty successful season.
- [43:59]
Bud Elliott
You know, in a league with a lot of turnover this year, there is like consistency in that program and that your coaching staff is still there. You've got your quarterback back, you've got most, your offensive line, you've got some receivers back. I think they lose pretty much their entire defense, but I don't know if UTSA is ever going out here winning games with defense anyway. They're trying to outscore you so I do feel like they're something of a quote, not really a dog but you know, a live dog. If Navy's the first favorite and I think what's their win total at seven and a half. I mean I, I'm feeling kind of disappointed if I'm 7 and 5 and on the Roadrunners at the end of the year, aren't you?
- [44:34]
Chip Patterson
Yes. I mean first of all there's a, there's a lot of seven and a halfs and eight and a halfs out there which is definitely indicating a lot of unknown and uncertainty in the marketplace, at least on these first odds releases. I'm curious to see what, what ends up dancing around though. As I just mentioned, currently at DraftKings with a price of minus 125 to the over, minus 105 to the under, this is about as middle of the road as you're going to get when you play Texas in the non con. They have a road game at Texas State as well which talk about a game with no defense. Boy, utsa, Texas State I think. Oh, that thing could get a little bit exciting. The conference draw is difficult. If you believe Brian Hartline is going to be able to take some of the returning talent and create the Bulls into a contender. If you believe Will hall is going to be able to take the infrastructure that was left by by John Sumrall and be able to get out and run. There's going to be some, some tough ones there but as I just see them stacked up against and Navy obviously. But as I see them stacked up against the rest of the teams in terms of the roster I, I like this as an opportunity season for utsa.
- [45:45]
Tom Fernelli
This would be interesting to bet or Sorry Tom, Go ahead.
- [45:47]
Bud Elliott
Let's say they also get USF and Navy at home but they get USF coming off of a short week on the road against Rice, whereas USF I don't think has that same like I think USF gets a full week of rest going into that one, if not
- [46:05]
Chip Patterson
more so that five day turnarounds One of the thing AFCA tried to sneak into their proposal where they said they don't want any more five day turnarounds.
- [46:13]
Tom Fernelli
You do get, you get nine days before you play Navy.
- [46:18]
Chip Patterson
Oh, with the. You would. Would you rather have the extra prep for the triple?
- [46:22]
Tom Fernelli
Yes.
- [46:22]
Bud Elliott
Oh, yeah, for sure, for sure.
- [46:25]
Tom Fernelli
You can also, like, you can also do a little bit of Navy prep for Rice week because. Right. Rice runs that really funky offense now. Like it's not the same. But you can, you can heavily work option principles, I think in that linebackers
- [46:39]
Chip Patterson
with your keys and getting our little eye discipline practice.
- [46:43]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, if you look at this, they're playing what, the 14th, 12th, 11th. Yeah. 14th, 12th, 11TH, 10th, 9th, 7th for the conference odds.
- [47:03]
Chip Patterson
Oh, you're saying good favorable conference, an
- [47:06]
Tom Fernelli
excellent chance to go to the conference championship game here. That's probably why they're priced at 475. Like, I, I don't think they're the second best team in this league, but they could be. But the road is very favorable here. You, you could drop two out of three to Navy, usf, Tulane and be totally fine.
- [47:28]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [47:29]
Chip Patterson
UTSA avoids ECU in Memphis. Great call, Kenneth. In the tailgate. That's going to be a big part of helping your strength of schedule also.
- [47:36]
Tom Fernelli
And avoid army.
- [47:38]
Chip Patterson
And they avoid Army. Dag on.
- [47:40]
Bud Elliott
We gotta stop, like, we gotta stop talking about this before we move the line.
- [47:48]
Chip Patterson
Hey, at the, at the end of the day, I'd rather, I'd rather have this be something. The tailgate. This could be something we discover together. You know, as long as we move in unison on this one. No one, no one, no one freak out on the prediction markets until we at least get to close the show.
- [48:03]
Tom Fernelli
Also, I do think if you are doing graphics at a G6 program, putting the name of the team would be helpful. Like we know it because we work in college football. I'm not sure how much of our audience knows all of those logos.
- [48:15]
Chip Patterson
Hey, those fair. Hey, so that's a, that's a great, great suggestion there. What?
- [48:23]
Tom Fernelli
Although if you're listening to G6 win totals on a Monday, Venn diagram is probably heavily overlapping there.
- [48:30]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I think, you know, I think you actually play the game of naming logos for fun.
- [48:35]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [48:36]
Chip Patterson
The same way where when I can't sleep at night, I just start running back national champions as far back as I can go. Like, I just start running in like backwards order.
- [48:45]
Tom Fernelli
How far can you get?
- [48:46]
Chip Patterson
Normally I get to BYU at 84.
- [48:48]
Tom Fernelli
Okay.
- [48:48]
Chip Patterson
And then after BYU at 80, sleepy time. Yeah. Somewhere around there, I fall. I just start, like, my mind's drifting. I'm like, 80.
- [48:55]
Tom Fernelli
Because 83 is Oklahoma or Miami or Bama. Penn State, I think, or Penn State. Okay.
- [49:01]
Bud Elliott
And it was Penn State 82, I
- [49:03]
Chip Patterson
think Penn State's 82. I think Miami's 83 because Miami's 83 and 87. 83 is the Schnellenberger one. Normally. Normally around this period is when I'm like. And sleepy time. Okay, so the one last piece. I'll shout it out because it made me chuckle just a second ago. I'm not gonna let Ryan be the author of the book of COVID three bits, but he does a great job of keeping track of them. He succinctly points out that if every game was played in the Alamo Dome, UTSA would be a winner. They do well not explain why they are so good in that big cavernous building.
- [49:45]
Tom Fernelli
It's unexplainable.
- [49:46]
Chip Patterson
Unexplainable. Billy Napier is. Was in Gainesville fighting an uphill battle, playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. Competitive roster now, I guess he's just an overwhelming favorite to win a conference title. He takes over a James Madison program that has a win total of eight and a half. Over slightly juiced at minus 130. Under at plus 100. You know, we saw Kurt Signetti leave. Bob Chesney comes in. Bob Chesney gets him to the College Football Playoff. Do we just assume that the institutional investment and also sort of the speed, the speed limit of the Sun Belt, or at least you know how fast most of those programs are driving, that another coaching. Another coaching change will keep the Dukes running as the class of that conference?
- [50:45]
Bud Elliott
I don't assume it, but, yeah, you hope so. Like, I do. Like, just kind of like side storyline here. You mentioned it like, you're walking into a job where two coaches ago left one turned Indiana into a national title contender. He was replaced by a guy who kept things humming, got him to the playoff himself, and then he takes the UCLA job. Napier was a big name that ended up getting the Florida job. Clearly didn't go as planned. They're like, there's. There's pressure on Napier here. Like, if he comes to James Madison and he's the coach who, like, ends the line, he might not get another head coaching gig. So, yeah, I. I expect that with what they have, the investment, the talent, that they will still be one of the better teams in the Sunbelt. But it'll be interesting to see if they're still the cream of the crop, or if they're the team that you're looking at all year, is one of the favorites to get to the conference title game. Now, their win totals are what, eight and a half? Yep. Yeah, man. Eight and four. I feel like that's not what we're shooting for.
- [51:44]
Chip Patterson
Eight and four can get you to the conference title game. Eight and four could still get you a conference championship, but I, I, that
- [51:52]
Bud Elliott
includes, like, what, losses to Liberty, UConn, and then one con. Like San Diego State.
- [51:56]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [51:57]
Bud Elliott
A conference loss.
- [51:58]
Chip Patterson
I think, I think, I think two conference losses could still get you to the conference title game.
- [52:03]
Tom Fernelli
So, I mean, I'm not saying that the Sun Belt rigged this in James Madison's favor, however.
- [52:09]
Chip Patterson
Say it.
- [52:10]
Bud Elliott
Say it.
- [52:10]
Tom Fernelli
If you wanted to look at the teams that are basically 20 to 1 or worse, JMU plays all six.
- [52:16]
Bud Elliott
Hell, yeah.
- [52:19]
Tom Fernelli
So if they win against Old Dom to start the year, you can pretty much pencil them into the conference championship game because.
- [52:30]
Chip Patterson
Troy, Louisiana. Louisiana, Right. Remember Louisiana, Texan, Sunbelt? Now, they replaced Texas State, which is off to the Pac 12. But Louisiana State Tech comes in as a West team.
- [52:41]
Tom Fernelli
They play Ulm as well. Right. I want to make sure I'm correct on this. No, excuse me. I misspoke. They do not get Monroe. So they play five of the bottom six. That's still a pretty nice edge there.
- [52:58]
Bud Elliott
And they get Coastal at home, they get Troy at home, they get Martin.
- [53:02]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [53:03]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [53:04]
Chip Patterson
Do you like that we still have divisions in the Sunbelt
- [53:09]
Bud Elliott
on the road?
- [53:10]
Tom Fernelli
Yes, I do, because I think it's better for the fans to be able to travel, to, like, have some rivalry between people who are close to you. Yeah. As it spreads out more like, that's, that's hard to travel that much.
- [53:25]
Bud Elliott
There are a lot of people in their feelings about college football and things that are changing and how. Blah, blah, blah. It's ruining everything. The Sun Belt ratings should be skyrocketing because the Sun Belt is everything that everybody says that they want back in college football. Regional rivalries, weeknight games. I want to see Sunbelt ratings soar this year, or else somebody might say that you're all full of crap.
- [53:58]
Chip Patterson
Should be. Should be very, very interesting. Lots to replace there. It has been asked frequently, what are the expectations for North Dakota State after they are making that rapid ascent into FBS play? Dagum it. The biggest win total that we've been talking about so far. North Dakota State over at DraftKings Sportsbook has a win total of 9 1/2 over at 105 under at 135. For those who might not remember the multiple time national champion at the FCS level, the dynasty that is the North Dakota State Bison, they got so bored with winning, they said, give me harder battles. And the NCAA has allowed them to go. Quick transition, we'll see about postseason play. I think the odds might not have North Dakota State listed as that still has to be a waiver process to be fulfilled for them to be conference champions. Could they go 11 and one against this schedule?
- [55:07]
Bud Elliott
It is not the most imposing schedule.
- [55:11]
Tom Fernelli
All right, so they, they do play the bottom five teams in the odds here, like everybody who's 18 to 1 or more, they play.
- [55:18]
Chip Patterson
But they also play like UNLV, New Mexico at Hawaii. Those are like the, I mean, it's the Mountain West. Mountain West.
- [55:25]
Tom Fernelli
You're gonna play pretty much everybody. Yeah. It's just you don't miss any of the ones that are like the real, real long shots to win the league.
- [55:31]
Chip Patterson
Correct.
- [55:34]
Bud Elliott
It is wild to me that north or Northern Illinois is on this schedule against Northwest Conference game. Like, I, I keep, like, I, I don't know if it's just like trauma, but I keep forgetting that Northern Illinois is now in the Mountain West. I mean, it's as far as North Dakota State, like, we know that they're very good. We anticipate they're still going to be pretty good. But it, I do wonder, like, you know, we've seen it, but coming from the FCS to the FBS level, where you're facing it, it's, it's not like you're playing in the sec, but you are facing a different body type on a weekly basis than you probably see in the FCS every single week. So you do wonder how the grind of the 12 games will go. But I still, I think that's, that's probably not that big of a deal. I still think they're going to win a whole hell of a lot of football games.
- [56:23]
Tom Fernelli
The trade off here for having the bottom five, they play the top three league favorites all on the road.
- [56:29]
Chip Patterson
Right. And in a five game run. And we talk about the body types, we talk about sort of like, you know, what the transition is going to be if North Dakota State does not win the conference championship. I predict it'll just happen in that run in the middle of the season where, guess what? I understand you've been crushing every. They were Big sky, right? Yeah. So you've been crushing everybody in the Big Sky. Well, like now have everybody stay locked in as we're going to Honolulu. Oh, and playing a team with Micah Allah that is kind of on the, on the rise right now and going to be looking at this as a huge opportunity for Hawaii to try and compete for a conference championship. After you've already done going up against Dan Mullen in Vegas after you've had to go play Jason Ek. I mean those, those are some challenging, challenging road trips for the Bison here in year one.
- [57:27]
Tom Fernelli
Very much so.
- [57:28]
Chip Patterson
Would you. Sorry, but I didn't mean to cut you off.
- [57:31]
Tom Fernelli
Not only is it the top three that they also play at Air Force, so like they play the top four league favorites all on the road.
- [57:39]
Bud Elliott
Further my point earlier, they're playing Northern Illinois in a Mountain West Conference game. They're playing Sacramento State in a non conference game against a Mac team. Sunbelt ratings better be through the roof.
- [57:53]
Chip Patterson
The, the tailgate is clamoring for UNLV as the Mountain west favorite. Do you see it that way? The, the odds makers actually have the Rebels with a win total of seven and a half over minus 130 under plus 100. Dan Mullen loses the Whoopsie Daisy King but gains a Jackson Arnold. Now, as we have discussed, the most idealistic version of Jackson Arnold as a game breaker does seem to fit with the Dan Mullen quarterback. Can Dan Mullen get the most out of Jackson Arnold and have UNLV competing for a conference title?
- [58:38]
Tom Fernelli
I think if you look at Calandria's comments recently, if he backs those up, that's probably a huge loss for unlv.
- [58:45]
Chip Patterson
If you. Okay, hold on.
- [58:47]
Tom Fernelli
I know Big Ten West. Tom has been all over this Calandria talking big. He's like, I didn't come here, he said something like I didn't come here to win seven or eight games. I, I came here to win a national title. I'm like, bro, if you go 8 and 4, Nebraska should cut you like a million dollar bonus check on top. Like that. That saves their jobs. Like, like that. That's.
- [59:08]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Nebraska might be, Nebraska might be the 10th best team in the Big Ten.
- [59:13]
Bud Elliott
Anthony Calandria did not become the Whoopsie Daisy King by being low on confidence.
- [59:18]
Tom Fernelli
All right?
- [59:18]
Bud Elliott
There is not a throw that young man doesn't believe he can make. So I, I hope he keeps talking like that.
- [59:25]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, unlv looking at the 2025 Nebraska schedule, not the 2026. Yeah, I agree. Like those are reasonable expectations given what they had last year.
- [59:35]
Bud Elliott
I, I mean as for you, but lv, like I, I, I look at them and yeah, I could Say, I could see why you think they're definitely should be the favorite but unless that defense improves like I, I, are we really that sold that like I give Dan credit for what he does with quarterbacks but are we sitting there thinking Jackson Arnold's going to come in and just now that he's at his level he's going to maybe live up to the expectation or do we think that Jackson Arnold is very limited?
- [60:00]
Tom Fernelli
I have pretty good confidence in Mullen with quarterbacks, especially when you're not facing, you know, much if any, like future pro level skill. I, I, I think Dan Mullen can scheme it open pretty well. Do I think like Clanderia was good for them last year? So I don't know if he'll play that well but I, I'd be surprised if he totally sucks again. I know that's crazy because he's not been good so far.
- [60:27]
Chip Patterson
Jackson Arnold, what was it?
- [60:29]
Bud Elliott
It was the favorite.
- [60:30]
Chip Patterson
Was it the Baylor game? 137 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
- [60:35]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah,
- [60:38]
Chip Patterson
I'd be, I'd be cutting up that. Not, not that, I mean is, is Baylor's defense better than what they're going to face on average in the Mountain West?
- [60:49]
Tom Fernelli
Yes, by far.
- [60:51]
Chip Patterson
Was the way Baylor's defense was being called in that game or the game planning for that game because if I remember correctly, they were just leaving wide swaths of the field open. Probably concerned about the wide receiver power obviously.
- [61:08]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. There's no Cam Coleman to distract the defense.
- [61:12]
Chip Patterson
I did, I do love seeing New Mexico and Jason Eck up here in that top tier after what we saw was a very fun, if imperfect New Mexico season last year.
- [61:24]
Bud Elliott
You know, pain in the ass team.
- [61:27]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [61:29]
Tom Fernelli
This is a super fun league as far as like diversity of offense.
- [61:33]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [61:34]
Tom Fernelli
Like San Jose is super fun to watch, obviously like Wyoming, you know, more, much more traditional. Air Force is running their version of the triple. You know, Hawaii is doing the whole like, you know, fun and gun thing. You get Den Mullen with unlv, you get New Mexico.
- [61:48]
Bud Elliott
That's, that's an interesting, that's a great point. I feel like if there's a defensive coordinator doing well in this league. Yes, higher. Because that is, yeah, that's somebody like maybe to consider hiring because that's a difficult prep every single week. Like you're playing a new offense every week. Yeah.
- [62:04]
Tom Fernelli
This league has to me some like remember when Mac games used to be like 40 to 50? I don't think with the clock rules we're going to have 40 to 50, but I bet you we're going to have some points of games here. These will be legitimately fun to watch. Maybe not always great football, but entertaining football.
- [62:20]
Chip Patterson
Oh, but I see some like 34, 32 with failed two point tries. Yeah, you know, that's just a lot of craziness going on. All right, we will keep the conversation going. The group of six win totals, lots to be learned. Maybe you want to get in a mailbag question for Thursday's episode about one of these teams or about some of the information we're seeing over at DraftKings. You can do that. Reach out to us individually or come and hang out Thursday, 11am Eastern Time. Summer school keep you rocking and rolling through the rest of the week. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Frail. You can follow him at blood3. You can follow me at Chip Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Thank you.
- [63:05]
Bud Elliott
You can't reason with the sun. Trust us. We've tried. This summer, it's time to put that angry ball of fire on mute. Columbia's Omnishade technology is engineered to protect you from the sun's harsh rays that can burn and damage your skin. The sun is relentless, but so is our gear. Level up your summer@columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion. You're welcome, Columbia. Engineered for whatever.