If Vegas Is Right: What Win Totals Say About Expectations For These SEC Teams in 2026

Summary

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Cover 3 College Football Podcast: "If Vegas Is Right: What Win Totals Say About Expectations For These SEC Teams in 2026"

Episode Date: March 25, 2026 | Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Episode Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 Podcast continues the “If Vegas Is Right” offseason series, focusing on SEC teams’ 2026 win totals as set by sportsbooks and what these numbers reveal about fan expectations, coaching pressures, and the evolving landscape of the SEC. Rather than making picks, the crew analyzes how these win totals illuminate the stakes for programs across the conference, with particular attention to Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Arkansas. The show is driven by candid discussion, a bit of SEC gallows humor, and sharp insights into coaching hot seats and playoff hopes in an expanded, tougher conference.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Coaches Under Pressure: The Vegas View

• Alabama (Win Total: 8.5)

  • The panel highlights that 8.5 is striking for Alabama, reflecting both a tougher SEC (with Texas and Oklahoma added) and a new phase post-Saban.
  • Tom Fornelli (05:16): “It’s not Nick Saban’s Alabama anymore in the eyes of the sportsbooks… They aren’t just going to dominate everybody.”
  • Debates how 8–4 would be viewed as unacceptable for new coach Kalen DeBoer, with fan patience at an all-time low.
  • Bud Elliott (06:46): “If you’re 8–4, like that schedule’s not that hard.”

• South Carolina (Win Total: 6.5)

  • The coaching seat for Shane Beamer is “very much” hot, with a bowl bid possibly insufficient to save his job.
  • Tom Fornelli (18:54): “You look at the schedule and you think, alright, they should get to a bowl maybe. But I don’t know if South Carolina getting to a bowl will be enough for Shane Beamer at this point… unless they take another big step forward again, I don’t know what they can really do to save it.”
  • Offensive line woes and injuries to key defensive players further muddy the outlook.

• Mississippi State (Win Total: 4.5)

  • Panel suggests first-year head coach Jeff Lebby should have a long leash, but warns the fanbase will expect at least modest SEC competitiveness.
  • Danny Kanell (25:20): “I don't know that Lebby specifically should get a ton of leeway, but I think at a job like Mississippi State you probably should.”
  • Progress measured less in wins, more in showing life within conference play.

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2. Program Snapshots Through Vegas’ Lens

Alabama’s “Reset Year” Concerns

• SEC strength, nonconference challenge (Florida State), and program transition mean a reset in what’s considered “acceptable."
• Slipping playoff chances if resumes lack ranked wins.
• The panel underscores the impossibility of “silver bullet” wins to mollify fans.
• Chip Patterson (07:33): “A silver bullet win does not exist… cannot take embarrassing losses and needs to split its toughest – like its four toughest games, probably need to go two and two.”

South Carolina’s Uncertain Ceiling

• Transitioning after a peak season, disappointment looms, especially after investment in coach and facilities.
• Injuries to high-profile players set ominous tone.

Mississippi State’s “Moneyball” Gamble

• High variance expected; excitement around QB Kamari O'Taylor in a fast-tempo Jeff Lebby system.
• Progress defined by competitive SEC play rather than just raw win totals.

First-Year Coaches: High Hopes and Tall Orders

• LSU (Lane Kiffin, Win Total: 8.5)

  • Danny Kanell (36:03): “Lane Kiffin better go over this win total. Maybe significantly over it because if they're 8–4 there, that honeymoon is over in a hurry.”
  • Huge investment and expectations to match; playoff is the mandate, not just posting a winning record.

• Ole Miss (Pete Golding, Win Total: 7.5)

  • A much tougher SEC slate and the loss of favorable 8-game schedule dampen expectations.
  • Panel expects regression but notes some stability in certain units and the “high floor” of the returning talent.

• Florida (John Summerall, Win Total: 7.5)

  • Favorable schedule puts pressure on Summerall to exceed the win total immediately.
  • Tom Fornelli (46:16): “This number is so bad that the sports gambling industry in America might be dead come December because they will be broke from the billions of dollars we've all made betting the over on the Florida Gators…”
  • Quarterback play is the X-factor; fans’ patience is thin after Napier.

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3. Win Totals as Program Barometers

• Win totals don’t just number expectations – they serve as a barometer of job security, recruiting momentum, and program reputation in the new SEC.
• Chip Patterson (39:15): “I don't know if there's enough available in the pie to assume they're going to be able to get 10 wins and I think the expectation is 10 wins. I think eight and a half is closer to the reality of the situation.”

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4. Heavyweight Outlook: SEC Title Race and the New Power Structure

• Timestamps: 61:56–68:23

• Top Tier: Texas & Georgia

  • Texas and Georgia at 9.5 wins apiece and top SEC title odds.
  • The group expresses surprise at how tight the odds are vs. LSU and A&M.
  • Danny Kanell (62:50): “I’m a little surprised that the split between two and three is not larger. I kind of think Texas and Georgia are a little bit bigger gap.”
  • Betting market “compression” noted, with odds reflecting coaching changes, QB experience, and schedules.

• LSU and Texas A&M as the Next Tier

  • Both respected due to coaching, talent base, and transfer portal hauls.
  • The expectation bar is high – playoff is viewed as a minimum bar for success.

• Dark Horse Watch: Florida

  • Panel acknowledges the scheduling break for Florida – if they’re as improved as some believe, they’ll have plenty of “head-to-head” opportunities to disrupt the power order.
  • But the 20:1 odds were dismissed as “very nerfed.”

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5. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Tom Fornelli (05:16): “It’s not Nick Saban’s Alabama anymore in the eyes of the sportsbooks… They aren’t just going to dominate everybody.”
• Bud Elliott (06:46): “If you’re 8–4, like that schedule’s not that hard.”
• Tom Fornelli (18:54): “You look at the schedule and you think, alright, they should get to a bowl maybe. But I don’t know if South Carolina getting to a bowl will be enough for Shane Beamer at this point…”
• Danny Kanell (36:03): “Lane Kiffin better go over this win total. Yeah, maybe significantly over it because if they’re 8 and 4 there, that honeymoon is over in a hurry.”
• Tom Fornelli (46:16): “This number is so bad that the sports gambling industry in America might be dead come December because they will be broke from the billions of dollars we've all made betting the over on the Florida Gators here.”
• Danny Kanell (53:41): “Unlike Florida where I think seven wins is a little bit of ‘Oh no.’ I don’t even think six and six (for Auburn) is panic button.”
• Chip Patterson (68:23): “[For Georgia], things are shaping up nicely from the schedule perspective… even with questions about the offense, I’m just not going to downgrade the whole roster talent, man. Kirby continues to talk that talk… this is a group that is playing in Atlanta, that is playing in the College Football Playoff.”

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Major Alabama Discussion: (04:37–17:47)
• South Carolina, Beamer’s Hot Seat: (18:25–24:47)
• Mississippi State, Jeff Lebby Leanway: (24:51–29:46)
• First-Year Hires: LSU, Ole Miss, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas: (33:43–60:24)
• SEC Title Odds & Power Structure: (61:56–68:23)

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Notable Analysis by Team

Alabama (8.5 Win Total)

• Under immense pressure to outperform the modest win total.
• Fanbase has little tolerance for growing pains.
• Consensus: 8–4 means the coach is on the clock; 9–3 might not even be enough for security.

South Carolina (6.5 Win Total)

• Even marginal improvement may not be enough for Shane Beamer.
• O-line injuries exacerbate a brittle outlook.
• Win over Clemson or an SEC heavyweight is the ticket to upward mobility.

Mississippi State (4.5 Win Total)

• High variance due to new coach and up-tempo offense.
• Progress = playing closer games and improvement in conference, regardless of record.

LSU (8.5 Win Total, Lane Kiffin)

• Enormous expectations after splashy hire and $50 million investment.
• Making the playoff is seen as the bar.

Ole Miss (7.5 Win Total, Pete Golding)

• Regression expected due to schedule and change in coaching staff.
• Still enough talent for a bowl – floor remains solid.

Florida (7.5 Win Total, John Summerall)

• Generous schedule and high talent base set high expectations for Summerall’s Year 1.
• Quarterback battle and embracing the “new” Gators energy.

Auburn (6.5 Win Total, Alex Golesh)

• Seven wins considered progress and “ahead of schedule.”
• Loss of skill players resets fanbase expectations.

Kentucky & Arkansas (Both 4.5 Win Total)

• Gritty rebuilds expected with low stakes for 2026.
• Reality checks in play after offseason optimism around new hires.

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Takeaways for Listeners

• Early Vegas win totals are a true “expectation barometer,” not just a yardstick for betting, but for judging coaching outlook and program direction in the rugged, restructured SEC.
• Many traditional powerhouses face existential questions about success and what mediocrity means in an expanded playoff and tougher conference.
• First-year head coaches inherit programs at dramatically different stages – and their win totals reflect both hope and skepticism.
• The SEC title race is expected to be more top-heavy, but schedule quirks and quarterback variables could shake up the elite tiers.
• 2026 will test not just teams and coaches, but the patience of some of college football’s most passionate fanbases.

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To experience the full flavor and banter, check out the episode for more on the detailed schedules and rankings debates – especially if your team was on the hot seat.

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Transcript

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[Chip Patterson]

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[Danny Cannell]

welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast

[Chip Patterson]

and welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson. Come to you [e-mail] cover3 and everybody get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe Smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the COVID 3 tailgate, where the Renaissance gamer got in before the show started. And he seems to understand the assignment. Because yes, if you clicked on this episode, either on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast, you see that we are continuing our series. If Vegas is right, renaissance gamer on YouTube says those 8 1/2 teams when teams with win totals of 8 and a half, LSU, TX a and M and Alabama are going to be pissed if those come to pass. Yeah. We've got a fascinating show ahead as we take a look. Really not for our picks for these win totals as much as understanding what they say about the teams, what the expectation is for the season ahead. And yes, like, like our, our astute viewer notes what fans are going to say if those expectations are right. So if Vegas is right getting us rocking and rolling here. How's, how's everybody doing today? I don't have a lot of. I'm not overflowing with news. Did I miss anything? I'm not trying to be funny about

[Danny Cannell]

that but T ball win last night so that was quality. Okay, how do you got a hit?

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go.

[Danny Cannell]

Liam has recognized you can go into the Game Changer app and that he is the number one hitter in the league and Hudson is literally dead last. And so he has been reminding his little brother of this Delta and he actually got a hit off a pitched ball and hit it like all the way to third base and then tried to run to third base, made it to first and then had a. I, I kid you not. I turned around and still coach third base. He's crying in the dugout. We're changing Enix. I'm like what happen? He goes somebody pulled my hair. And I was like, I had seen him try to like fight against him. Like was, was the hair pull around when you, when you were taking your helmet off?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, helmet.

[Danny Cannell]

So he pulled his own. Yeah, he, we have so we had a two heading injury.

[Chip Patterson]

Listen, it's like that sometimes you got to learn your lessons along the way one way or another. Well if, if, if y' all are cool with it, I think, I think we just go ahead and dive right in. Does that sound good? First category that I want to get to coaches under pressure. Okay. These are from the idea now in the the comment as we came into the show. Lsu we'll talk about them with some of our first year hires. Texas A and M is an interesting one. I don't think Mike Elko's under pressure though, right?

[Bud Elliott]

No.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. That's I, that was one that was a little bit of a limbo and you know, obviously we can get into that when we talk about SEC championship odds coming up a little bit later. But let's begin with the Alabama Crimson Tide. A popular topic here on the COVID 3 podcast this week we talked about their high profile quarterback battle. But I also seem to sense that all four of us feel like this is one of the better situations among the quarterback battles. What about this number? What does this tell you about this team? Tom, as you're starting to look at Alabama head in 2026, it tells me two things.

[Tom Fornelli]

One, the SEC is more difficult than it has been because there are, you know, more teams in it. You've added Texas and Oklahoma and just the way things are working now with scheduling agreements where they have to play the non conference game, you know, you've got another P. Non conference, which is Florida State again, this time at home, that it's harder to win a lot of games like you would you be used to. But it also tells me as far as Alabama is concerned, that it's not Nick Saban's Alabama anymore in the eyes of the sports books or just in reality in that they aren't just going to dominate everybody. And you look at their schedule and you can see why eight and a half is a realistic kind of win total for them. Now you've got them in the coaches under pressure category. If they go under and they finish eight and four, I do feel like that is a lot of pressure on Kaylin DeBoer. Now. It might matter who they lose to, but I don't feel like you could find many Alabama fans who are like, would be okay with losing to Georgia, LSU, A&M, Auburn, whoever it is that you end up losing to. So yeah, it's, it's an interesting situation. You're going to have a new quarterback. You are in the third year since replacing Saban. You got to the playoff last year. You won a game and you got killed in the other. You haven't won the league. You've been kind of embarrassed by Georgia in the SEC championship. You were embarrassed by Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Like I, I feel like I want to win a lot of games this year if I'm Kalyn DeBoer because they might not give me year four.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, I don't think you can find four acceptable losses.

[Bud Elliott]

That's what I was gonna say. If you're 8 and 4 like that schedule's not that hard.

[Danny Cannell]

And your, your dogs, what, twice, right, Hosting Georgia and at lsu?

[Tom Fornelli]

You might be dogs at Tennessee. You don't know. Possibly.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, I think it's, it's possible,

[Chip Patterson]

you

[Danny Cannell]

know, and if A M somehow levels up like crazy or something, but like it's very difficult to see them being dogs like at Kentucky hosting fsu, hosting South Carolina at Mississippi State at Vandy without Pavia Chattanooga or hosting Auburn. So yeah, I think if you go 8 and 4, it's uncomfortable because you have made probably in the mind of Bama fans like two pretty unforgivable slip ups.

[Chip Patterson]

I think that we saw that a silver bullet win does not exist because Kaylin DeBoer seemingly had it against Georgia and it did not at all change the conversation. You know, like they collapsed down the stretch, they had the loss against Oklahoma, they fell short of the College Football Playoff, they come back the next year, they lose in Florida State to the opener. And my, oh my, how whatever happiness there was from beating Georgia almost a little bit less than a year prior wasn't worth anything. That lady was sitting outside that gas station talking about winning the lottery to be able to buy out the athletic director and the head coach. So I, I kind of think that to your point, for acceptable losses and also because with some teams we do think about, you know, but what are the wins? Do they jump up and grab somebody and it's just such an impressive or important win that it can offset maybe an embarrassing loss. This is an Alabama team that as I see it in the eyes of the fans, cannot take embarrassing losses and needs to split its toughest. Like it's four toughest games, probably need to go two and two.

[Danny Cannell]

Right?

[Chip Patterson]

So.

[Danny Cannell]

So if your goal is to avoid the slip ups, do you think that puts a greater chance that Mac is the quarterback because he's a little bit more of a known commodity?

[Chip Patterson]

Do you think Kalin thinks like that? And I'm not trying to like, criticize,

[Danny Cannell]

I don't because I, I think Caitlin's a really good head coach. And if for some reason Bama was to fire him, I think he'd get picked up like that because I think all the other administrators out there with some sense about him would be like, all right, Bama's edge is gone, right? Because they're not some like tremendous innovator in the nil space they were behind, which is probably why Nick left. You know, like they, they still have a talent edge over most teams, but, but not such an egregious one, to Tom's point about like the, you know, kind of the tightening of the league. And like, I don't think people fear Alabama anymore. That's not, in my opinion really Kalin's fault. I don't think that Nick Saban would have done a better job in the last two years than Kaylin DeBoer would have done personally, given the resources and whatnot. And like the fact that he had a lot of good people fleeing his staff. And I think those staffs at the end of the saving era were not great. So I don't think he thinks like that. He probably thinks, hey, I'm trying to win Game 12 and Game 13,

[Bud Elliott]

which still could be Mack.

[Danny Cannell]

Sure, sure. Right.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, we don't. We don't. I mean, the other thing that's interesting, too. I mean, 8 and 4. I do agree with Bud, but, I mean, we almost saw him run out of town last year, and it was even, you know, this Michigan job opens. Is he like that whole conversation, Penn State, his name comes up. I do think he'd be a hot commodity on the open market. And at 8 and 4, Bama probably would be willing to broker a deal and buy out and say, all right, yeah, take him. So do you think.

[Danny Cannell]

I wonder if a little bit of that was orchestrated to send a message to Alabama, like, hey, you don't like me. These teams that spend more than you do on players, they like me a whole lot. Right. And yet I'm choosing to stay here because I believe in what we're trying to build together.

[Bud Elliott]

Mm.

[Chip Patterson]

I. I cannot speak for Penn State's leadership. I do remember Penn State fans putting on Auburn gear for that Iron Bowl.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

You know, I don't. I don't know how much Penn State was truly in the hunt and ready to. To back it up. Tom, do you. Can you speak to that one?

[Tom Fornelli]

This. There were plenty of people who were in power at Penn State who were very much in line with going after Kaylin DeBoer.

[Chip Patterson]

How.

[Tom Fornelli]

How mutual the interest ever was. Couldn't tell you.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Or how much of that was orchestrated, as Bud mentioned, to be able to, you know, sort of stir the pot a little bit. Okay, outside of the quarterback, as we look at this team, what are some areas that you are interested in? They can be individual players, they could be a position group, or they could be a little bit general. What are going to be some spots to be able to help Alabama get on the other side of this? Because this is a very, very interesting read that we're like, oh, my gosh, if it's 8 and 4 disaster town, you know, what's the need to happen? Offensive line, run game.

[Bud Elliott]

But yeah, I think that goes together. But a lot of people were looking at the running backs. I do think the offensive line was just as big as a problem. So I think that's going to be key. You know, that's been a big conversation around Ty Simpson and his, you know, draft conversation is, oh, well, he didn't have a great offensive line, didn't have a, a great run game with a first year starting quarterback. And I know Ty Simpson was too, but you're going to want to take some of that pressure off his shoulders.

[Tom Fornelli]

What, what I love about that conversation, by the way, Dan, is that people will talk about how Ty Simpson didn't have a great offensive line and those same people will be mocking his left tackle in the same first round that they're picking him to get drafted in.

[Danny Cannell]

Right. It was a weird like season. I mean, he was terrible against fsu. Like he was playing in cement. And then for much of the rest of the year he had like pretty good performances. I don't know what was up in that game.

[Bud Elliott]

But it's his first start, wasn't it?

[Danny Cannell]

No, no, he started the year before.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah,

[Bud Elliott]

yeah, the USF game.

[Danny Cannell]

Because he's an early entry. Right. So like he. Yeah, he's a two year starter.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Because the whole Iowa thing was what, after his freshman year.

[Bud Elliott]

I was talking about Simpson.

[Chip Patterson]

See, there we go. All right, we're on. We're sharp here. Okay.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Too far down the line. We're talking about two different players here. One is Kaden Proctor. Feed in cement, early entry starter. From the moment he showed up at Tuscaloosa. It was for Ty Simpson. His like the beginning of the Ty Simpson era.

[Bud Elliott]

Yes.

[Chip Patterson]

Did he start the South Florida game? Was it him?

[Bud Elliott]

I think so. And then he got bench. Yes.

[Danny Cannell]

Because that was the whole like. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Jalen Melrose sit on the side and you learn something in the rain, boy. Nick Saban walking like wet as a dog through that tunnel.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh,

[Danny Cannell]

for who?

[Chip Patterson]

For what? This game is miserable. Yeah. You're talking about Kaden Proctor feeding cement. Right.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

And I thought that Ty Simpson, I think we, if I remember we correctly went back and upon review, we're like, they weren't bad decisions, they were just off. Am I correct?

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, it was like, it was like a, like a little late.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. The, the Ty Simpson NFL Buckner started the USF game.

[Danny Cannell]

The, the chat is correcting us. It was. It was. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

But they all three played though, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. And it was awful.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Or it was just Simpson that played. It was just those two. Jaylen Milro did not play.

[Chip Patterson]

But the individuals on Alabama's offensive line, on paper, just even beyond Kaden Proctor, you would think would have led to more production.

[Commercial Announcer]

Yes.

[Danny Cannell]

They also got a new offensive line. Coach. So we'll see how that works.

[Chip Patterson]

We feel good about tied defense.

[Danny Cannell]

I do, Yeah. I, I think they'll be pretty solid there, to be honest.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Talented. I don't, It'll feel like monsters, but it doesn't feel like it's a weakness.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, but who, who has monsters up and down the D line anymore?

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know if they do.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean. No, but like, who, who else? We almost have to. Much to Tom's point. But we have to judge in this new reality. You know, I, I think like specifically there.

[Chip Patterson]

Oklahoma.

[Danny Cannell]

Oklahoma's got some dudes.

[Chip Patterson]

Oregon. Oregon. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Not the, you can't accumulate them though, right? Like, can't have two or three massive D tackles anymore.

[Danny Cannell]

Like 22, 21. Georgia stuff is dead that, that's not coming back. You just can't afford to have, you know, a, a D line room that's making 14 million.

[Chip Patterson]

That's true. Yep. Okay. Any, anything else on Alabama before we keep this moving? Nothing.

[Danny Cannell]

Does 9 and 3 get them in to the playoff? I don't think so.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know with that schedule.

[Danny Cannell]

Right.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, I don't, I don't think the schedule's that. I think the Florida State weakness hurts them.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

It's not a great win, potentially. We'll see.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, it's a win Total of 4 and a half for the Knolls. Right.

[Bud Elliott]

So, I mean, if you beat a 4 and 8 or a 5 and 7 Florida State team, that's not boosting your strength of schedule.

[Danny Cannell]

Like if you're 9 and 3, you either lost to the three best teams you played.

[Bud Elliott]

Right.

[Danny Cannell]

Probably a good argument that you're not playoff caliber or I think alternatively, hey, we had a slip up. Now we're playing much better. We lost two playoff caliber teams, probably in close games. Who are your resume builders on this necessarily? Like, who have a shot to be ranked?

[Chip Patterson]

I think lsu, Tennessee, Texas A M and Georgia. And Georgia. That middle stretch is where you have to get your quality wins.

[Danny Cannell]

Right. Like, I, I don't think Vanderbilt has a great shot to be ranked. Is that what's South Carolina's total? I need to actually look at this,

[Chip Patterson]

but it's actually coming up next. Six and a half.

[Danny Cannell]

Look at that. Right. Okay.

[Chip Patterson]

So because that's a coach under pressure,

[Danny Cannell]

if I've ever seen one with probably pretty limited upward mobility. Same thing for Mississippi State. Like I, I, I would, I would lay a pretty big price that like Mississippi State and South Carolina are not ranked teams at the end of the year.

[Chip Patterson]

Correct.

[Danny Cannell]

And probably the same can be said for Auburn. So you may lack, like Bama might run into the scenario in which they lack that win in that like kind of 18 to other receiving votes range.

[Chip Patterson]

You know, as always, the thing about a 12 team playoff is you got to find 12 teams to put it in it. We don't know what the bubble is going to look like, you know, does 9 and 3 get him in? I think 9 and 3 as Alabama likely has them in the conversation. So it. I would make the playoff certainly if I was Kaylin Debor more than anything, I would make sure that I don't go 8 and 4.

[Danny Cannell]

We also don't know like, does the SEC lose the benefit of the doubt now?

[Bud Elliott]

Right.

[Danny Cannell]

You know, three Big Ten champions in a row, SEC in the playoff has not been anything special. I don't know.

[Chip Patterson]

I. I know, I know. I just, you know, it's harder to

[Danny Cannell]

argue strength of schedule with the playoff results though.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know.

[Tom Fornelli]

But it's the grind, bud. I mean.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, no, like, I still think that they probably up and down on average have the most challenging schedule.

[Tom Fornelli]

Agree.

[Danny Cannell]

But I think in that room, I'm curious, like, how much narrative carries. We know the voice some of these coaches carry.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

That's for sure.

[Tom Fornelli]

Well, we will.

[Chip Patterson]

We'll judge the selection committee when it's time to judge the selection committee. The standard has been set high by one of the Mount Rushmore of selection committees. The group in 2025, South Carolina. We just mentioned it over, under win total of six and a half. I'm not. Correct me if I'm wrong. That's a coach under pressure, correct?

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Very much so.

[Chip Patterson]

So what does this say? Dylan Stewart, by the way, has been a little banged up. That ain't great.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, they've already lost one tackle.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. We're losing tackles left.

[Tom Fornelli]

They've lost two. One. They're hoping they'll get back. Like, but there's one that they've already said is gone for the year and that was one of their big transfer gets. The offensive line was not great last year. The north sellers spend so much time running for his life, which, I mean, that's kind of his strength at this point defensively. You just mentioned Stewart's banged up. I don't know, man. Like, this is. You look at the schedule and you think, all right, they should get to a bowl maybe. But I, I don't know if South Carolina getting to a bowl will be enough for Shane Beamer at this point because I felt like, you know, they were very close to the playoff two years ago. Last year they took a tremendous step backward and you could kind of feel like there's a reason he's on the hot seat. You felt like there were people that were ready to move on last year. So unless they take another kind of big step forward again, I don't know what they can really do to save it. And I don't know that it's fair. I, I do think that sometimes, you know, that that 9 and 3 season where they were on the precipice of an at large could kind of, you know, lead to unrealistic expectations or.

[Chip Patterson]

That was the one.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, that might have been the year

[Chip Patterson]

that was supposed to be your peak season. And you were like one win away from being able to cash it in. Which to me fair. Not for South Carolina is a playoff appearance in this modern era.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, this is 15 months ago. Another one of these unnecessary extension raise. Let's raise the buyout pie. Your buyout's sitting at what, 29 after this year.

[Chip Patterson]

You say 29?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, it's.

[Danny Cannell]

Sorry, no. 27.9.

[Chip Patterson]

Excuse me, that's not.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, that wasn't a huge.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, that's a one.

[Danny Cannell]

You.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, look at the, look at these rich guys. 1.1 million is nothing to Chip and Danny.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, but I. So I've been sitting here, no reason, but like Nate Oates buyout drops from 18 to 10 million dollars on April 1st. And you're telling me Shane Beamer is almost DX the NATO buyout.

[Bud Elliott]

That is the difference.

[Tom Fornelli]

I do notice that North Carolina fires Hubert and suddenly chips back to wearing North Carolina gear.

[Chip Patterson]

No, this is standing a in solidarity. It's a tough day for the Carolina family. There's nothing, there's nothing joyous about. I think of. Of Hubert Davis.

[Bud Elliott]

I think the win total for South Carolina tells you we finally got some realistic expectations. Like last year they were. I mean, Lenora Sellers was going to be a top 10 pick. It was like, like, oh, the future is there.

[Danny Cannell]

I.

[Bud Elliott]

They still did. They had Texas A and M beat collapse there. That doesn't help, especially when Shane Beamer's mocking the fans. He's going in the tunnel. Then you blow the lead. They played Alabama tough for a couple years in a row. Like I think they might. I think they could over exceed, but I think that's probably where they should be perceived. You know, seven wins is solid. I think it's depends on who you beat. Can they get one of those signature wins? Can they Beat one of the teams that are eight or nine wins above them. That's probably the question is, is can you get one of those big dogs that you know or you can be. Can you beat Clemson at the end of the year?

[Tom Fornelli]

You know, look at that schedule.

[Bud Elliott]

And it's like, Clemson, you're probably safe,

[Tom Fornelli]

but like they have a very manageable home slate, all things considered. Like, they should win. If you're anything like you think you're trying to be, you have to win those first five home games. And then once you get to A M in Georgia, you see what you can do.

[Danny Cannell]

Well, we'll know if he's fired before Halloween. That probably yes, because like, to me it comes down to Mississippi State, Kentucky, you know, like you need to win those two home games and what does

[Bud Elliott]

it look like versus Bama and Georgia, you know, if they're close, you know. Yeah, but it helps, you know, I

[Danny Cannell]

mean, if you're the AD at South Carol, it's South Carolina. And I know the brand stuff matters less than ever. We know that in Tallahassee all too well. But it's not like you're spending like, like those big boys either. So like if you lose by a hundred to Bama in Georgia, cool. You know what? I'll spend a hundred. Like that, that same track record for 100 years. Like, to me, that should not factor in your decision. It's like, are you in year what 5 of Beamer? Are you ahead of these upstarts that just had to fire their coach and make a change? You know, either immediately or recently, they

[Tom Fornelli]

did just fire their baseball coach. Maybe the AD is just in a groove right now. Maybe he's like in a trigger pulling kind of guy.

[Chip Patterson]

Maybe he's safe because they're going to have to worry about pumping money into the baseball program. Also possible we do have some like Arkansas protocols over there in Columbia. You know, we got, we gotta, we gotta make sure diamond eats too. So

[Danny Cannell]

there also is a pretty good bit of uncertainty for some of the programs they play on the back half of this schedule that have win totals higher than the Gamecocks. But like, it's not crazy to think that, you know, one of those teams could even miss a bowl. Right. Like a couple things go wrong. Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, A and M. It's not that hard to spiral and be a lot worse than we think.

[Chip Patterson]

That's to get down to fall down to where I'm imagining this. All right, last piece here on the Gamecocks. What are the expectations for Lenora Sellers, Kendall Browse offense.

[Danny Cannell]

They got what's his name in there running the offensive line now, who's a longtime browse guy. It's a pretty quick and easy offense to learn. We've seen that multiple times. Like it's not something that takes two years to master. It can mask some offensive line problems. Yeah, I think he'll probably put up pretty good numbers in it.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's. It's going to be runner shots.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

And I think that kind of plays to his strengths, honestly. Shots down the field or take off running.

[Danny Cannell]

Totally. Actually

[Chip Patterson]

last one here for coach under pressure and I again, this is another one where I'd like to just sort of test it with the group. Jeff Levy at Mississippi State. Our win totals four and a half. That seems fair, but is it fair to Jeff Lebby? What's a. If you were advising Mississippi State's athletic department, what needs to happen is hot. Is that a fair hot seat analysis?

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, I don't know that Levy specifically should get a ton of leeway, but I think at a job like Mississippi State you probably should just if you've done some things like let's make an outside the box higher, let's run a system that not everybody else runs. Let's try to do things a little bit differently, kind of moneyball it. That kind of thing could take some time. Not like the implementation of the offensive system. But he's also a first time head coach. Maybe the guy's learning on the job. So I, man, I don't know. Like if they go 4 and 8, I'm sure they're not real happy but like I don't know that a lot of people are like jumping to take that job who you'd actually want to get.

[Chip Patterson]

Am I the only one who's excited about Kamari O'Taylor?

[Danny Cannell]

No, very excited.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Danny Cannell]

Is he still limited for spring?

[Chip Patterson]

I haven't checked up on that but my expectation is that he's going to be good for the fall. I don't have any reason to be. Have a health concern, but keep that. Don't, don't delete that off your spreadsheet. You know, we'll continue to check up on that. But the skill there and the potential in an up tempo offense to be a real game breaker and a playmaker like that to me, when I start to think about. All right, so what's the positive? What are you selling me on for Mississippi State? What are you selling me on for Jeff Lebbies that Jeff Lebby found a player who he might be able to develop into a really, really fun and electric quarterback. Now, how many wins does that translate to? It's a bigger question, but specifically, I'm excited about Camario Taylor in the Mississippi State offense.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know if the win total matters as much as much as it's like they improved from 2 and 10 to 5 and 8 last year or 5 and 7, whatever their final record was. So they improved by three wins. But the bigger problem was they went from.08 in the SEC to 1 and 7. You only won one conference game in your first two years and you lost by an average of 2012 points per game. So you weren't really all that competitive in conference. Like if they finish 4 and 8 under, but they pick up a couple of wins in the SEC or they're just more competitive in SEC games, I think Jeff Levy is fine now. If they're going 08 in conference again and getting blown out every week, then you might see a change.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, else game as big as that week two at Minnesota, you know, like that's, that's one that could sort of set the tone for the season. And if you won that game and you stole South Carolina, then you're playing with house money and you're thinking it's gonna be a great year. And it still could be at five or six wins. Could be a great year.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Mississippi State, South Carolina. Week three is a sneaky hot seat game.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, big time. I do think Beamer's under more pressure than Levy though, because he's only in year three.

[Tom Fornelli]

Going back to last year though, let's not forget Mississippi State in Week 2 beat Arizona State, who was like a top 15 team at the time.

[Bud Elliott]

Good point.

[Tom Fornelli]

The wheels completely fell off once they got the conference play. So I don't even know if beating Minnesota on the road is going to do that much for you. If you go into SEC playing, get your skull cap.

[Bud Elliott]

They were up 24 against Texas too, though. That's where I think they were. Just a much better team last year. But does that trend, does that translate to wins this year? Remains to be seen.

[Danny Cannell]

And you know, one thing, we've not met or. Sorry, Chip, go ahead.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, I was. If you on Mississippi State. Zach Garnett's return. Is that what you're about to mention?

[Danny Cannell]

No, I was going to mention that we should have prefaced more, I think to start the show. The first year of the nine game schedule.

[Chip Patterson]

Ooh. I'm just so used to everybody else playing the big boy schedule and you know, actually coming out here but that would hint to why all of the win totals are a little bit lower.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, and not every SEC team would schedule four automatic wins. But, but some of them would, you know, pretty often. And if you're one of those teams that did and now you got to go do this, this is more challenging. You have to play a real team in the non conference. You also have to play an additional SEC game.

[Chip Patterson]

I will say off the top of my head, you mentioned the Arizona State game. Mississippi State seems to get a good, decent power conference, home and home on the schedule most years. Yeah, they not always, you know, they're not trying to go knock on the door of, you know, trying to think about what they're not knocking on the door of Ohio State and being like, hey guys. But they, it's almost, they do a good job of sort of scanning a somewhat similar opponent in another conference. Mississippi State normally given us one of those early in the year. What do you make of Zach Arnett's return?

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, I like the, the combination. If you're going to play that up tempo on offense, play a style that either gets your defense off the field because he has a turnover or negative play and forces a punt fast or a style that, you know, hey, like maybe we're going to set the tone early and know we're going to need a whole lot of points today.

[Chip Patterson]

For those who don't remember, he was the defensive coordinator under Mike Leach. When Mike Leach passed, he was promoted to head coach. Did not go well. So he was, he was fired. He's been an analyst for a couple of years. He did not even get one fight full season as Mississippi State's head coach back in 2023. So he makes his return. There was a reason, you know, why they wanted to trust him with the program. We'll see if he'll be able to help them out along the way. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the first year head coaches, the win totals and what it means for lsu, Ole Miss, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas and more next. You know, mental health can feel like this huge complicated thing because if you hurt your arm, you see a doctor, no problem. But finding the right therapist, suddenly it's confusing, expensive and takes forever. That's why Rula is so great. They make therapy simple, fast and affordable. They accept most major insurance plans and the average session copay is just $15, 15 bucks. That's basically lunch money. But instead of a sandwich, you're investing in your mental well being. And here's the best Part Rula isn't just about matching you with someone. Every therapist is licensed, vetted and picked for their expertise. They actually follow up to make sure you're making progress. You answer a few questions about what matters to you. Pick a time and you could be talking to a therapist as soon as the next day. No waiting, no guessing, no stress. Thousands of guys have already used Rula to finally get the care they needed. Don't keep putting it off. Go to rula.comcover and get started today. That's R U L A dot com cover. Take the first step, get connected and take control of your mental health.

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[Chip Patterson]

Joey in the tailgate called it out as we are back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Yes, Tom, I am wearing this in solidarity for the Carolina family. But, but, but also because it's, it's a sweet new home field hoodie and we're excited about, you know, starting to, starting to have some conversations. Starting to get things going with, with home field apparel. They make great stuff and, and we'll be sure to have a lot more information for you coming up in the weeks ahead. All right, let's keep it going with the first year hires. We'll start at the Top with lsu, Lane Kiffin takes over in Baton Rouge and he's got an eight and a half as the win total. The expectations, I think that as soon as we he was hired are understood. This is LSU and you are Lane Kiffin. You make this higher for a reason. 7 and 5 ain't acceptable in any single season. You go and you spend all this money. Hey, Danny, how much money did Brian Kelly say it was?

[Bud Elliott]

Close to 50 million.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. And that was on your show, right? Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

So I'll let you take first word here.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, I mean, I mean, and it was a similar. Because we've had the conversation about how do you feel if you're Mack Brown and you get shown the door and you were asking for money, but all of a sudden they come in and give it to the next coach? Like, you're like, why I could have done that? You know, I think that's what Brian Kelly was kind of alluding to. He's like, man, I could have done a lot better with that roster as well. Even though he's given pretty good resources. But, man, Lane Kiffin better go over this win total. Yeah, maybe significantly over it because if they're eight and four there, that honeymoon is over in a hurry. And if they're nine and three, the honeymoon might be over in a hurry. Depends on who those losses are to. But the expectations are sky high, as we've discussed with that roster. And oh, boy, you better win at Ole Miss because my goodness, what that would look like. Oh, my goodness. Would be an absolute disaster. But you know, Lane's. His social media presence is always fun when you're winning, man. I could imagine his comments if he starts, you know, if it starts off 8, 4. My goodness, that gets uncomfortable in a hurry.

[Danny Cannell]

They do play a lot of teams on this schedule that I would project to be worse than they were in 25, man. I think Clemson, worse. Ole Miss, I don't know. They're way worse, but I don't think they're going to be like, better than they were last year. Just what with what they lost. I think A and M is worse. Kentucky is probably not, but I'm not really sure it matters. Mississippi, State, again, I think it's the same level team. They just added an SEC game and a real non conference game. So, you know, Auburn is probably somewhat better, but I don't know how much better. Bama, like, are they better? They just kind of. Maybe they're better, but I don't think they're like world's better. Maybe they are. Texas is better. Tennessee. Tennessee's a lot better this year than were last year. No, I guess it's theoretically possible, but, like, it's not clear to me, like, here on March 25th, that they are. And Arkansas, probably a similar level of team. I would think so. Like, that. I mean, they're in favor in a lot of games. A lot of this comes down to, like, the young guys on defense. Do they step up and really make a difference? And we talked about Richard Anderson coming off the Under Armour game, how, like, for a guy that size and clearly he has some bad weight to lose, but his ability to play like, that many snaps with that kind of effort and not all of a sudden stand up and get washed because. Because your. Your legs are dead. Like, I think Richard Anderson is going to play like, 30 snaps a game in SC from day one. And then do the offensive line transfers hit? Oh, also, it like, is Levitt healthy and can he stay healthy? That's another kind of big question mark there.

[Chip Patterson]

What do y' all think?

[Tom Fornelli]

It's. We've kind of touched on it. 9 and 3 will be good. 9 and 3 might get you in the playoff. I don't think 9 and 3 is what they're paying for. I. I think that getting to the playoff is really more important than the win total. Like, I. I think that is. That's why you make that move. That's why you spend all that money. That's why you get Brian Kelly out. You go after Lane Kiffin, you cause all that drama, you want to be in the College Football Playoff. Lane was in the College Football Playoff, and he left for LSU because he feels that you have a better shot to win national titles at LSU than you do at Ole Miss. So you better get into the damn field, because LSU hasn't been in too long for LSU fans. So I don't think, like, it's a situation where if he's not there in year one, oh, hot seat. But I suggest getting there in year one.

[Chip Patterson]

Is there a wins per million that we can get going? You know, like, I just, like, I need to be able to judge this out, you know? Okay, so this many million dollars and this many wins, can you hit this ratio? Then we can consider it a successful season. Brian Kelly, for the record, did have a number one transfer portal class last season. He also said, we don't buy players a couple years ago, which, you know, it didn't always go over great because clearly the appetite in Baton Rouge is we don't care what it costs we don't care what you got to do to do it. You field a national champion, you know.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

The children's hospital is like, you don't. We do.

[Chip Patterson]

80 of the lake says hello. I, I don't, I don't know if there's enough available in the pie to assume they're going to be able to get 10 wins and I think the expectation is 10 wins. I think eight and a half is closer to the reality of the situation. And because there's been so much talk and buzz about it, there's just going to be like an impulse. Yeah, of course they're going to go over eight and a half. You mentioned about those teams not being better. A lot of those teams, I'm not positive they're worse.

[Bud Elliott]

Right.

[Danny Cannell]

Fair. I, I mean if you could know one stat right now about LSU to predict their season, I think it would be the number of games Sam Levitt starts. Like, if you tell me he starts 12 games, I, I think LSU is going nine, three or better.

[Chip Patterson]

You don't think Longstreet would be able to step in and have some of the same success that Chambless did? Obviously, wildly different experiences.

[Danny Cannell]

Not, not, not to that same level. I mean, I guess it's possible, but I don't think so.

[Chip Patterson]

I'm just thinking about like Lane pulling his back up off the bench, throwing him in there and then being able to take off and hit the ground running.

[Danny Cannell]

That's fair. It's a, it's a pretty QB friendly system, obviously.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. What about. What, what. I like that question. What stat would you want to know if you could predict right now?

[Tom Fornelli]

How many points are they scoring?

[Chip Patterson]

Because, because video game. I mean, what, what if they're out there scoring 38, 39 points per game?

[Tom Fornelli]

Then they'll be nine and three at least.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Wow. Yeah. That will be. What do you. And last question here. We will do this a lot deeper when we do the win total picks later in, in, in the summer. Do you like that? Off week before Ole Miss?

[Tom Fornelli]

There's no off week before Ole Miss. There isn't playing Louisiana Tech.

[Chip Patterson]

Ah, okay. There we. There we go. We were, we were missing one on the graphic. I was like, wait a second. So hey, don't.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's. Yeah. If, if, if you use a certain website, they only have 11 games on their schedule for some reason. But if you go to fbs schedules.com, they have all 12.

[Danny Cannell]

Gotcha.

[Chip Patterson]

Good to note. All right, let's keep it going. Looking at our first year coaches, we will go next in order and hello, it's the, the Ole Miss Rebels. Pete Golding has a couple of wins as a head coach thanks to the Rebels playoff run. But now he's going to be the first year as the full time head coach. Loses a couple of assistance to that LSU team we just discussed. Gains a couple of assistance from that LSU program we just discussed. Trinidad Chambliss gets the favorable ruling from the courts. Bud, what's, what's going to be the, what does seven and a half tell you about this Ole Miss team?

[Danny Cannell]

Well, it tells me they had to add a real non conference game. Right.

[Chip Patterson]

You know, and that the schedule rotate. This is a great nine games and the schedule rotated because for two years they played an eight game schedule that in my opinion was a favorable SEC draw. So now you're adding an extra game and rotate rotating on opponents that you have straight up missed for the last two seasons.

[Danny Cannell]

Oh, I mean look, Ole Miss was, was, was pretty blatantly naked about it, right? They were trying to schedule to go 40 in the non conference every year. Like they were not trying to challenge themselves. Kiffin treated some of those games as a joke. Right now they have to play Louisville and to your point, they, they got the harder draw. I mean you get Georgia at Oklahoma, at Texas, LSU at the Swamp, I mean at Vandy. Okay, like that's probably not as tough this year as it was with Pavia. You get Mississippi State at home, that should be a win. You get Auburn at home, again, that should be a win. There's a decent floor but man, there's not a lot of like road games here where, how many of these games that they play away from home. So Louisville, which is neutral, at Florida, at Vandy, at Texas, at Oklahoma, do you feel good about?

[Bud Elliott]

Not many.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, like even Louisville's not a lock, right?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, there's only four road games or true road games on there and you don't feel great about any of them.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean Vandy's the most winnable of the five that are away from home, I guess.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I, I mean they had a great year last year considering you know, how far they got. Everything that went on off the field too, just overcoming those distractions. Chambers was one of the best stories of the season. Even before the Lane Kiffin playoff stuff. I just, I, I have a hard time regardless of what the schedule is, it's not seeing that team regress back to the mean quite a bit because they, they played well, but they also had a lot of things go their way. So I Mean, you look at the schedule, it's more difficult, I. I expect. What's the win totals at? What, eight and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

For what? Ole Miss?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. Or seven and a half.

[Danny Cannell]

Is seven okay?

[Tom Fornelli]

I think eight, eight and four is very much possible. I, I would probably. Right now I'd lean more towards 7 and 5 as the most likely.

[Danny Cannell]

I think just because like they brought back a lot in the offensive line, I think there's a chance the defense doesn't drop off. Chambers is a really good college quarterback.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I think I'm special.

[Danny Cannell]

I think I lean over, but mainly because I feel pretty good about the home games, you know, Like, I don't think Missouri is taking a step forward,

[Chip Patterson]

but Vanderbilt, Missouri in the middle of lsu, Florida and Texas on the other side of. That's tough. I mean, I don't know if you've heard SEC is a meat grinder, man. You know, it's tough. Nine and three in that conference is like 11:1 anywhere else. I mean the win exchange is crazy.

[Tom Fornelli]

Nine and three in the SEC is like 17:0 in the NFL.

[Chip Patterson]

You think this defense will be solid?

[Danny Cannell]

They got some really nice pieces. I mean it. Eccles is really good shoot. The, the kid who's kind of like a hybrid edge rusher they have is, is really quick. I don't think the secondary is going to be worse and it was an issue at times last year. I think it probably improves. So I, yeah, I, I think they're, they're a dangerous team.

[Chip Patterson]

Florida or. Go ahead, Tom. Anything else on Ole Miss?

[Bud Elliott]

Nope.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. Florida Gators John Summerall era begins with a win total of seven and a half. The Gators are potentially favored in 10 games. You know, that's as. As first heard and first reported here on the COVID 3 podcast. A huge part of this you've got to think is going to be as we mentioned during the quarterback battles. Aaron Philo, Buster Faulkner, them hitting the ground running. Tom, you said that you're. You can already feel here in March that you're going to be way over your skis on the Gators. How, how far. Where do we push this win total on the. In the, in the Tom numbers?

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean this number is so bad that we might. The sports gambling industry in America might be dead come December because they will be broke from the billions of dollars we've all made betting the over on the Florida Gators here. You know, this is, I mean like that schedule, all things considered. Okay, give me like if I'm an SEC team, that's the schedule I'M asking for most seasons, like I'm getting Auburn, Ole Miss. Okay, but I just talked. I think they're coming down. Missouri is never like they're going to be a 7 and 5ish kind of team. They're not at. You got them at home. You've got South Carolina at home. Yeah, you get Georgia and Jacksonville, but you get Oklahoma at home. You get Vandy at home. Your road slate is Auburn, Texas and Kentucky. Like Texas going to be very, very tough. You don't feel like going on the road and beating Auburn and Kentucky is awful. You feel like you could beat Florida State. Considering Florida State seems to be punting on 2026 to begin with, who knows what condition. That's probably going to be an interim coach. Let's be honest, by the time 117 comes around, like, I feel great about this team. I think that if you don't go over, it's a serious disappointment. And you know, John Cumral is not on the hot seat. But you're like, oh, we might have messed up again.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, yeah. They go 7 and 5. With this schedule and that much raw talent, I, I think, I think Florida fans have real reason to be pissed

[Tom Fornelli]

parties in Atlanta this year.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, it's at the bends.

[Chip Patterson]

They're renovating.

[Bud Elliott]

The next year it's Tampa, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. I think they're renovating the Everbank Stadium. Right?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, so it's a pseudo road game. It's not a true road game, but it's going to be pretty close to it.

[Tom Fornelli]

I feel like we have enough games in Atlanta. Let's not make that.

[Chip Patterson]

What did Danny, I hear you getting a lot of Wolf. Oh, I just. And I'm.

[Bud Elliott]

I just seen this story before though. We get all hyped up about the Florida Gators and the. And how great they're going to be this year and I am buying into it too. But my goodness, you better beat Auburn first. Like before we start chalking those up for W's. It's going to be a game that Florida Gator fans think they should win easily and that is not going to be easy. Maybe it is, but I just think you've got. The start to the season is so critical because I could see this team getting hot and becoming trendy and everybody falls in love with them and maybe they keep that ball rolling and they're sort of one of the stories of the college football season. But what if they, what if they drop 2 and 2 and they're going into Missouri with a must win game? You know, that Fifth game of the season. Like, I could see either one unfolding. I lean towards the bullish side, but I've just seen them not handle the expectations that well before. But I think Summerall is different. I think he'll have them geared up. I think we'll have them ready.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, you, you could start three and three and. And still I think have a great chance to go over.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, three and three.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. Because the finish the final three games,

[Danny Cannell]

Oklahoma in the swamp. I think Florida's favored at Kentucky, vandy and at FSU.

[Bud Elliott]

Although if they're 3 and 3, I don't know if they're definitely favored against Oklahoma. That's fair, you know. Yeah, but it's still a winnable game.

[Chip Patterson]

You would think if, if they don't they. No, no, no, no, no, no. They need to be 4 and 2 after six games and 5 and 1 is legitimately in the cards. 3 and 3 might still be able to get you going over, but there's no way that you write three and three without at least one really, really disappointing home loss. And this is like coming from the. The same fans that were screaming at Billy Napier with like, vile booze all throughout the last season and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

So I would think I'll say, and we saw this last year across the SEC is we were really banking on two quarterbacks. Whoever wins the battle, whether it's Philo or Tramell Jones who haven't played much. Like, I know Fowl has played a little bit, Tramell's played a little bit, but they're still like a great unknown of how these quarterbacks are going to play. That could be something where they underwhelm. If neither of those quarterbacks are good, then it's, oh, like we're back. Square one for Florida.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know, I mean, I'm trying, like, this is a great day. I mean, my baseball team's playing tonight in a game that counts. I'm going golfing as soon as we're done with this show for the first time all year.

[Danny Cannell]

Let's go.

[Tom Fornelli]

Here comes my good friend letting me down. What happened to Gator? Danny, where do you go?

[Danny Cannell]

You might be back. I mean, might be back.

[Bud Elliott]

If they start off 4050- I'm back.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'm trying to bond with the bros over our Gator love. And here comes Danny pouring cold water on my head, trying to make me feel bad. The one guy I thought I could rely on.

[Chip Patterson]

So we talked about that Auburn game. That Auburn game is going to be on the plains in Jordan Hare Stadium Byron Brown, Alex Goelish. Vegas win total has the Auburn Tigers at six, six and a half. That feels fair.

[Danny Cannell]

Agreed? Yeah, very much.

[Chip Patterson]

I think Auburn fans would say that feels fair. Have you gotten a sense otherwise?

[Bud Elliott]

No, I think they're, I think if they go 7 and 5, I think they're ahead of step in the right direction. You know, we're, we're laying a foundation because I think their expectations are reasonable. Which.

[Tom Fornelli]

When was the last time we were ever able to say that about Auburn.

[Bud Elliott]

They've been beaten down pretty good here recently.

[Tom Fornelli]

But there is, you do get like a sense from that fan base where they're just kind of like, no, no, we know where we are right now.

[Danny Cannell]

You lose Singleton and Coleman, you're gonna have some read like readjusting of, of expectations.

[Chip Patterson]

You got dumped.

[Bud Elliott]

Did you guys see the. I hate when this happens. Did you see the video of Byron Brown throwing a ball in practice? And everybody's like, oh, it was like sidearm. He kind of flipped it out there. It wasn't. I'm like, what'd you think he was going to come in and be like, I don't know what like the expectation was. You just think you're seeing Mahomes rubber arm cannon down the field. Like that's not exactly who he is.

[Tom Fornelli]

No large man who runs.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, right.

[Bud Elliott]

Like, and he can believe that he

[Danny Cannell]

is an upgrade over Jackson Arnold without believing that he is a top 2/3 sec quarterback.

[Tom Fornelli]

Mm.

[Chip Patterson]

Overreacting to the first 15 minute viewing period. Video is right.

[Bud Elliott]

It's all time college football.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Let's go. Including. What was it? Was it the hype video with DJU that you called out Danny, that you're like, they should not have put that on the Internet.

[Danny Cannell]

Correct.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I, I think six and a half feels really right. Obviously. I think that's good for Alex Golish, you know, who's going to be able to walk in and try to lay a foundation. He's got a quarterback he can trust. They've got, they can kind of start piecing the other pieces, piecing the other parts together at least in terms of building a successful team. Schedule's got some big time challenges, as it always does for Auburn. But even under, I don't think is panic button. How about this? Unlike Florida where I think seven wins is a little bit of. Oh no. I don't even think six and six is panic. I think you should get to a bowl game. But I think that even 6 and 6 is not a smash the panic button lawnmower. Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Lawnmower.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, that's a blower.

[Chip Patterson]

The Kentucky Wildcats get Will Stein in as their next head coach. Over under a win total of four and a half. That is not in line with Kentucky is going to be the next Indiana. What?

[Danny Cannell]

Sorry, I had to unmute during the blower, but.

[Chip Patterson]

What.

[Bud Elliott]

Remember that?

[Chip Patterson]

It was like Will Stein, he got a couple. Couple transfers and then all of a sudden you're like, I tell you what, Will Stein, you know, if you're looking.

[Danny Cannell]

I do not recall this.

[Chip Patterson]

Indiana. Yeah, this. This might be.

[Bud Elliott]

Am I on this show?

[Chip Patterson]

No, no, no, no. I would just say that the conversation was a lot of juice. There's a lot of juice behind the. The Will Stein outlook. Am I wrong?

[Tom Fornelli]

School suddenly becomes football powerhouse.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. That's like they were going to be able to.

[Bud Elliott]

Almost felt bad for him. Like, it was getting too. Too much made up. It's like, like, let's tone things down a little bit or else the poor Guy's gonna go 6 and 6 or 5 and 7 and everybody's gonna be like, what happened to the eight or nine wins?

[Tom Fornelli]

There's also like, again, the comparison is stupid, but, like, the other thing that just kind of drives it home is like, Kurt Signetti came to Indiana with, like, decades worth of head or a decade worth of head coaching experience. Well, Stein hasn't been a head coach yet, so.

[Bud Elliott]

And like a half a roster of players, difficult schedule.

[Danny Cannell]

If ever there is an argument to bring back the significance of the February signing day. It's articles and arguments like that. Like, we. We got to feed the content machine, y'. All.

[Bud Elliott]

This is.

[Danny Cannell]

We reap what we sow. We got rid of signing day, moved it up, and now we replace it with Kentucky's the next Indiana.

[Chip Patterson]

Kentucky can be the next Indiana. I will give. I will give them some credit there. It's like, Kentucky can be the next Indiana. Was the discussion. I. Again, I'm gonna go back to the pie if you're going to get a bigger piece. Who are you taking it from? And in the SEC right now, for a lot of these teams that are looking for a step forward, I don't know who you're taking it from. So I'm not. I don't have Kentucky up to the par of, like, Kentucky's gonna have to play lsu, they're gonna have to play Alabama, they're gonna have to play Texas A M, and that's in the first half of the season. Okay. So let's see if it lightens up a little bit. Well, you've Got to play Oklahoma, you got to play Tennessee, you've got to play Florida. I mean, what are we talking about for coin flip games? A Clark Lee Vanderbilt program that's ahead of you, maybe with a better quarterback. You're talking about Missouri, which is clearly ahead of you in the development process. I mean, I can think, I can think Will Stein is a good hire, but I am not about to think we're going to have a one year turnaround here in 2026.

[Danny Cannell]

Okay, so some positives here. They did go out and spend real money on guys who have like actually played high level college football on the offensive line. So I, I think there's a pretty decent hit rate on that type of player. They went and got, you know, we know there were other programs, you know, who, who wanted some of the quarterbacks who went out and got like Kenny Manchi. So like they did spend some money. Is that enough when you're facing all these other teams that already spend money and have already been spending money? Probably not. But there's some positives here. And, and like, just because Stein's a first year coach doesn't mean he's going to suck. It probably just means the variance is incredible.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, one last one for first year hires, then we'll hit a break. Arkansas, Ryan Silverfield. Four and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Sweet 16, baby. Two years in a row.

[Danny Cannell]

Baseball's still really good. Right?

[Chip Patterson]

Baseball's still really good. Got a little K.J. jackson, got a little A.J.

[Bud Elliott]

realistic expectations.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean we have not seen, not sarcasm here. We've not seen Silverfield coach in the underdog role.

[Tom Fornelli]

Correct.

[Danny Cannell]

Right. So maybe he's better at that. Some people are.

[Chip Patterson]

That's true. Offensive line coach under Norvell. Right. And offensive coordinator.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah. At Memphis.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Do you have any?

[Danny Cannell]

I don't, I'm, I, I don't love your, your, your first FBS game being at Utah and then you come home to play Georgia. Yeah. And then you get a nice week off against Tulsa, but Tulsa's doing some stuff like I don't think Tulsa's going to go in, in Arkansas and win, but that's a hell of a sandwich spot.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean they really ruined Oklahoma State last year.

[Tom Fornelli]

Right. Just.

[Danny Cannell]

And then you go to Texas AM and host Tennessee.

[Tom Fornelli]

I hope Saturday, September 5th is a beautiful, stunning, 73 degree, 73 degree day in Fayetteville so Arkansas fans could come out, watch their team beat north Alabama by 100 and just have something for this football season. Because after that. Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Back half of the schedule. If I can make the argument is friendly right at Vandy is going to be one of your easier road games in the S. You can draw in the SEC that you're still an underdog there. But like it's not like you're going to play at Georgia. You host Missouri, you're at Auburn, which is a high variance team lined at six and a half. You host South Carolina, which you know could be on total quit watch by then. Then you're at Texas and you host lsu. And again, I don't think that they're favored in either those games clearly. But like given the expectations on both those teams, if one of those teams goes south, it's not crazy to think that like maybe they mail it in.

[Chip Patterson]

Sure.

[Danny Cannell]

Like you could finish three and three in your final six.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean the, the problem is I Tom's wishing for this beautiful 70 degree day. I just think that's a night high of 93 against North Alabama. I think, I think you're roasting out there.

[Danny Cannell]

I know.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's why I'm praying for a 75 degree sunny day for them.

[Chip Patterson]

I know, I know. I appreciate that means a lot. Yeah. Look, we're not trying to laugh at Arkansas. Four and a half might even be an ambitious number. You know, the, the amount of time it will take for Ryan Silverfield to put in place, what it takes for Arkansas to take real steps forward will be more than just this season. So we'll, we'll see. It's a tough road to hoe, but we appreciate the positivity, bud, in terms of potentially getting us a strong finish. Coming up on the other side, let's take a look at the teams at the very top and even more specifically, the championship odds for the Southeastern Conference. All that and more.

[Tom Fornelli]

Next,

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[Chip Patterson]

I need to do some research on North Alabama, but North Alabama Moneyline might be a good week one sprinkle O

[Danny Cannell]

this is called Chip takes the rest of the year off for this segment and like recaptures. What is that, like eight minutes a segment, you know, 10 weeks remaining, like over an hour of reclaimed value. Smart.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, let's take a look at the SEC title odds. For those wondering. Texas is at the top of the SEC win total board at nine and a half. Georgia is at the top at nine and a half as well. And when you look at the SEC conference championship odds, they are right there. Plus 300 for Texas plus 39 to 390 at Georgia. Then we take a step to our next tier. The LSU team we just discussed Texas A and M sitting there at 8 to 1 plus 800 right behind LSU and then Alabama. Then we take another jump down into Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee and Missouri. Bud, when you're looking at these, you can pick a team or go big picture on this one. What's what stands out about the way the team's at the top? The teams that are going to be contending for both a spot in Atlanta but also an SEC championship. What do these odds tell you about that race?

[Danny Cannell]

So I, I'm a little surprised that, that the, the split between two and three is not larger. I, I, I kind of think Texas and Georgia are a little bit bigger gap. But again, like we just talked about it, if Levitt is healthy, then he could be the best quarterback in the league. I don't know that he is, but he could be. I think it's within his range of possible outcomes. A m, I guess you really can't have them lower given the schedule and you know, given that they did do a nice job in the portal. Like there feels like a lot of compression in these odds. I'd man they're, they're gonna do good business on these high margin for the books on some of these. To to be kind here to the sponsor. Texas and Georgia have to play Florida. So if you really believe in that team, you might have the head to head.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, you talking about like Florida as a dark horse play at 20 to 1.

[Danny Cannell]

Although I would not bet 20 to 1. That feels very nerfed.

[Chip Patterson]

Are you, are you suggesting that maybe these implied probabilities are not adding up correctly?

[Danny Cannell]

Possibly.

[Tom Fornelli]

It has happened before.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey, listen, it's a business. You know.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

It is a business. Tom, what do you see when you're looking at this board? Obviously, Texas, this is the year, right? You're going all in. You're making your coaching changes. Arch is back. Huge portal class this is. We are going to right all the wrongs. Arch himself said, I ain't playing in the cheat. I don't want to be playing in the Cheese bowl again. So,

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, I don't. I don't love any of these, but this isn't to say these are the teams I think are most capable. I just feel like based on what I'm looking at, the two that I would most want is Texas and lsu.

[Chip Patterson]

So Texas at the very top and then maybe lsu is it. What is the Georgia hesitation from just.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't think the odds are. I just don't think they're the right number. It's not really hesitation, but there are just. I have more question marks about Georgia's offense than I do. Texas pretty much is what it comes down to.

[Chip Patterson]

That's very.

[Tom Fornelli]

And I also have. I feel like I.

[Bud Elliott]

It.

[Tom Fornelli]

I feel kind of safer about LSU's offense than I do Georgia's

[Chip Patterson]

DK. What about Georgia at nine and a half?

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, it's the top. I mean, it's. They can't go ten and a half. You know, I mean, their schedule still is pretty tough, but I think they're. I. I agree with Bud that Texas and Georgia are sort of separated from the field you feel most confident about. Both have returning quarterbacks, both played really good, both have coaches, defenses you can trust. Like, I think those two are the cream of the crop for the sec.

[Chip Patterson]

Bud, where are you at with the Dogs?

[Danny Cannell]

So I, I think the quarterback gives them a high floor. Right. Because he's consistent and, you know, all the platitudes. A winner. He is a veteran. Like. Like, he's. I don't think he's all of a sudden going to collapse. I don't know that there's much more he can do physically, but I think he's somebody that a lot of. A lot of teams would like to have schedules. Friendly, man.

[Chip Patterson]

11 and 1.

[Bud Elliott]

Very friendly.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Like calling now 11. One favored in. In 11 or 12. Right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. I mean, could lose at Alabama, could lose to Florida, Oklahoma at home. I don't know. Maybe. But gosh, I think I'm gonna give the Dogs all the rest of them.

[Danny Cannell]

That's betting a lot on Matier's thumb being the. The only hold back in his game. I think if you think oh, you's going in there when in that just

[Chip Patterson]

terms of opponent quality, you know, those, those are the first ones that sort of rattle off. So I'm that it is juiced at nine and a half when we pulled it. So you are going to have to pay a price to be able to get that. But I, I, this, this one might be. Find different ways to. To attack it. I think that for the, I think for Georgia this is a. Things are shaping up nicely from the schedule perspective and I just am not even with questions about the offense. I'm just not going to downgrade the whole roster talent, man. Kirby continues to talk that talk, you know, about culture and we believe we like our guys and you know, he, he either becomes the foil for Lane Kiffin, right. And just sort of a lot of the more trans transient and transactional programs or he's wrong. And the transient transactional programs are the ones getting all the win wins. And, and Georgia's player development doesn't show up on Saturdays like a lot of us think that it will. We'll see. That to me is kind of the operative question about Georgia. It's easy for me to be excited about this idea that Kirby Smart's doing it in almost an old school way. But if they lose, Georgia's not going to want them to do it an old school way anymore. They're going to say, go do what Lane did. You know, let's. Let's put together our own $50 million roster. But I like the team. I like the schedule. I do think this is a group that is playing in Atlanta, that is playing in the College Football Playoff. And if I was to take a stab at an all, I think it's a team that can go 11 and 1.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, they're clearly on the short list for the national title. I think if you look at some of their inactivity in the portal, I don't, I don't really think that was a lack of funds. I think that, I think that was, hey, we, we like a lot of what's on our roster. We're going to work ahead to, you know, to extend those guys and retain them. Yep. All right.

[Chip Patterson]

Anything else on the Dogs or the Longhorns? No, Tom's. Tom, Tom's itching. You see this, this, this moment right here? Tom. Tom's about to jump through stream yard and like I'm, I'm gonna hit in stream soon. Chip, you don't wrap this up, okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

Literally right over my shoulder.

[Danny Cannell]

We're ready to go over here.

[Chip Patterson]

We will be back Thursday, 11am Eastern Time. Getting interactive. That means we are taking your listener questions. That means we are diving into the big old bag of mail. Some YouTube comments as well. Looking forward to it. Come and join [e-mail] cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fenelli. You can follow him@bud elliot3. You can follow him at Danny Canal. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Thank you.

[Danny Cannell]

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[Tom Fornelli]

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