If Vegas Is Right: What’s The Pressure On Big Ten Teams To Meet Expectations In 2026?

Summary

Cover 3 College Football: "If Vegas Is Right: What’s The Pressure On Big Ten Teams To Meet Expectations In 2026?"

Date: March 18, 2026
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott (absent for this episode)

Episode Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 Podcast dives deep into the over/under win totals posted for Big Ten football programs as projected by Vegas for the 2026 season. The hosts analyze what these numbers say about preseason expectations, which teams are facing the most pressure, and which coaches are sitting on the proverbial hot seat. There’s a heavy focus on new head coaches, evolving conference powers, and programs struggling to hit their historical marks. Throughout, the tone is candid, insightful, and true to the lively banter Cover 3 listeners expect.

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Main Themes

• Assessing Vegas win totals as a proxy for program expectations and pressure
• The shifting power balance in the Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State
• Impact of coaching changes at Penn State, Michigan, UCLA, Michigan State
• Coaches on the hot seat: Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, Maryland’s Mike Locksley
• “Elevator” teams: Programs that could over- or underachieve their projections

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Ten Title Contenders: Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State

[07:03–13:43]

Notable Vegas Win Totals:

• Indiana: 10.5
• Oregon: 10.5
• Ohio State: 9.5 (lower than usual for the Buckeyes)

Key Talking Points

• Indiana's New Normal: Indiana is finally being recognized as a powerhouse with a double-digit win total. ("Finally, we're getting the new normal, which is Indiana's a powerhouse. Like, we're actually all accepting that..." – Danny, 07:54)
• Ohio State’s “Low” Total: Buckeyes at 9.5 is a shift from historic expectations, largely due to a tough schedule (notably at Texas) and Michigan’s rise under Kyle Whittingham. ("It's Ohio State having fewer wins than two other programs in the league, and one of them's Indiana and one of them wasn't even in the league a few years ago. That is weird..." – Tom, 09:25)
• Oregon's Expectations and Challenges: Oregon is expected to reload, not rebuild, even after significant turnover. Dante Moore’s return at QB is a big factor, but both coordinators need replacing, and the schedule isn’t forgiving ("If you're Oregon...even if you're 11–1 or 10–2, does that make a difference to the fan base right now? It's the postseason where Oregon really needs to break through." – Tom, 12:26)

Memorable Moments

• Scenario Building: Tom paints a picture of a “9–3” Ohio State with marquee wins and three high-profile road losses, bringing up potential playoff controversy. ("You've got a 9 and 3 Ohio State with a road loss to Texas, a road loss to Indiana and a road loss to USC. But that means they've beaten Illinois, they've beaten Oregon and they've beaten Michigan." – Tom, 11:07)
• Retention as a Metric: Oregon’s Dan Lanning claims minimal starter transfers, suggesting strong program stability. ("We haven't had a starter leave to go be a starter somewhere when we wanted him to stay." – Chip, 15:01)

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2. First-Year Head Coaches: Vegas Expectations

[16:10–37:52]

Headliners:

• Penn State (Matt Campbell, 1st Year): 9.5 win total
• Michigan (Kyle Whittingham, 1st Year): 8.5 win total
• UCLA (Bob Chesney, 1st Year): 5.5 win total
• Michigan State (Pat Fitzgerald, 1st Year): 3.5 win total

Key Talking Points

• Penn State’s Surprising Total: Nine and a half seems high given turnover (new coach, roster largely imported from Iowa State, only 4 returning starters). Both Tom and Chip argue it’s based more on brand than substance. ("If I'm looking for a team right now...where I'm like the market is off or the market's kind of guessing, it's Penn State." – Tom, 22:10)
• Michigan Reset: Despite Whittingham being a “coaching upgrade” and Bryce Underwood at QB, questions remain about defensive attrition and how the new staff gels. ("If there is no real kind of bumps in the road from a new coaching staff...this is a team that I feel like should be going 9 and 3..." – Tom, 28:47)
• UCLA Vibes vs. Vegas: Bob Chesney gets “vibes” hype, but the consensus is that five or six wins would actually be a solid first year, given the talent on hand. ("Vibes can't take you all the way to where you need to be against this schedule." – Chip, 33:33)
• Michigan State Low-Expectations Bet: The “over/under” of 3.5 for Pat Fitzgerald is hotly debated. Tom calls it “disrespectful” low (39:10), pointing out there are several potential wins on the schedule.

Notable Quotes

• “Penn State, I don't think you can live with 9 and 3 if you get totally outclassed in your best games. I think that's a frustrating path...” – Chip, 25:23
• “If we don't get to a ball game, I'm probably fine...just give me some fun wins. Maybe beat USC to end the year to make me feel good going into the offseason.” – Tom, 36:35
• “Three and a half is strikingly low. I'll take the other side...telling me you can't find four wins on this schedule?” – Tom, 39:10

Memorable Moments

• Neighborhood Flag Watch: Chip and Tom joke about "Tom’s Neighborhood Flag Watch" as a barometer for Penn State and Indiana fan sentiment. (26:16)
• Rich Eisen 40-Yard Dash Bet: The winner of a Michigan State season bet will avoid having to run the infamous Rich Eisen 40. (38:35)

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3. Coaches on the Hot Seat

[45:57–56:23]

Main Focus:

• Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell: Win total of 7/7.5; 7–5 might “calm the seat,” but real program progress is debatable.
• Maryland’s Mike Locksley: Win total at 4.5; two-straight poor years would almost certainly mean a coaching change.

Key Talking Points

• Razor-Thin Margin for Error: At Wisconsin, aesthetics and winning rivalry games matter as much as overall record. ("Seven and five with a good win that fans feel good about...but you're not truly emboldened with that schedule unless it's eight and four." – Chip, 50:30)
• Maryland at a Crossroads: Locksley’s “2 and 16 in the Big Ten the last two seasons” is cited as damning, and five wins won’t save his job. ("I think the only reason he's back this year was financial reasons and they didn't want to lose players." – Tom, 53:58)

Notable Quotes

• “2 and 16 in the Big Ten the last two seasons, and you have never had a winning record in the Big Ten since you took the job. Five and seven ain't gonna get you another year.” – Tom on Locksley, 54:59
• “If you're going to be at 7 and 5, you better be winning the games that mean something to Wisconsin fans if you want to have any impact on the conversation elsewhere.” – Chip, 52:19

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4. Elevator Teams: High-Variance Programs

[57:30–63:13]

Teams Discussed

• USC (8.5 win total): Hosts see upside (“elevator up”) with Jaden Maiva at QB and Gary Patterson hired as DC.
• Illinois (7 win total): Too much lost from both lines; QB change is a concern. Seven wins looks right, but floor could be lower.
• Iowa (7.5 win total): Perennially outperforming projections under Kirk Ferentz, but this year’s roster turnover makes both 9–3 and 6–6 plausible.
• Washington (8.5 win total): Given returning offensive talent and a manageable schedule, hosts lean slightly “up,” though coach Jedd Fisch’s off-field drama is something to watch.

Notable Quotes

• “They’re Iowa, they could be nine and three. They’re Iowa, they could be six and six.” – Tom, 59:58
• “I would say more likely to go elevator up. A 9–3 season would not stun me.” – Chip on Washington, 62:47

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Selected Timestamps for Important Segments

| Topic | Start | |-----------------------------------------|------------| | Main theme intro, win totals context | 01:25 | | Big Ten title contenders | 07:03 | | Ohio State’s unusual position | 09:25 | | Oregon’s roster and postseason hurdles | 12:26 | | First-year head coaches segment | 16:10 | | Penn State (new coach, odd expectations)| 20:49 | | UCLA and Michigan State expectations | 33:10 | | Michigan State “show bet” (Fitzgerald) | 38:35 | | Coaches on the hot seat | 45:57 | | Wisconsin, Luke Fickell scrutiny | 47:49 | | Maryland, Mike Locksley job security | 53:34 | | Elevator teams (predicted risers/fallers)|57:30 | | USC, Illinois, Iowa, Washington analysis| 57:30–62:47| | Final thoughts, outro | 63:13 |

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On shifting Big Ten power:
  “It’s Ohio State having fewer wins than two other programs in the league, and one of them’s Indiana… that is weird to see…” – Tom, 09:25

• On Penn State’s roster turnover:
  “…what’s the power rating for Iowa State playing a Big Ten schedule? I’m not trying to…here, but that’s what I’m looking at.” – Chip, 21:48

• On high expectations with doubt:
  “Nine and a half might be too much. It might be a little too vibesy.” – Chip on UCLA, 36:43

• On program patience:
  “I don’t think you can live with 9 and 3 if you get totally outclassed in your best games. That’s a frustrating path into the offseason…” – Chip, 25:23

• On coaching hot seats:
  “I think the only reason [Locksley is] back this year was financial…if he has them for two years in a row and they don’t get to a bowl… they’re going to move on.” – Tom, 53:58

• On program variance:
  “They’re Iowa, they could be nine and three. They’re Iowa, they could be six and six.” – Tom, 59:58

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Tone & Style

The conversation is animated, irreverent, and sometimes tongue-in-cheek, with hosts bouncing seamlessly between hard numbers, program history, and personal anecdotes. There’s a healthy skepticism about “vibes” versus actual on-field substance, especially regarding new coaches and programs with significant transitions.

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Summary for New Listeners

This episode of Cover 3 offers a detailed but highly accessible overview of the 2026 Big Ten football landscape, using Vegas win totals as a jumping-off point for questions about pressure, expectations, and program health. Whether you’re a die-hard fan tracking every development or a casual observer seeking a primer on which teams are rising, falling, or facing existential questions, this episode delivers expert analysis laced with plenty of good-natured jabs and podcast in-jokes.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[C]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Canel. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. Aka the COVID 3 tailgate. But they are fired up for if Vegas is right. That's right. Win totals are starting to get out there and that means our annual spring discussion taking a look not just at the win totals, but what they say. If Vegas is right and if we are talking about a season that is somewhat close to what the wind total that's been posted. Well, how did we get there? What does that mean? And so much more. Today we are going to be starting with our look at the Big Ten. Looks like we've already got some commentary about Michigan State, about usc. Don't worry, all of that is on the agenda here today. Unless. Unless there's any business. I mean, we can just dive right in. Unless. Oh, Danny, do you. Would you like to know who won our national championship for our college football style March Madness?

[D]

So I had to do a bracket for Ruben, our social media guy. So I'm curious to know if we had the same national champion. Who'd you guys come up with?

[C]

Do you remember, Tom?

[E]

Ohio State, right? Yeah.

[D]

So I had Miami vs. Ohio State in The national championship game. And my philosophy was we just saw this game unfold.

[C]

You picked Miami.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

No, you did that for Reuben.

[E]

Yeah. I was going to say Reuben was recording this.

[C]

Yeah.

[E]

Ruben standing there with his phone in one hand and a gun in the other like, Danny. Who do you think is going to win a football style bracket?

[D]

Well, that's why I told him. I did text him. I show you the thread. After I went through the bracket, I texted him a picture. I said, now I know why you wanted us to do this exercise.

[C]

You know, he knew in advance this

[D]

was going to have a really good chance With Indiana not being in the field, like it was a pretty good chance they were going to make a deep run. I had him as national champs, which I had plenty of time to fill out my bracket during some travel delays, which turns I almost fired up because I got to the airport in Minneapolis on we were supposed to fly out Sunday night, got delayed, flight was canceled, big blizzard. And then my flight was at like 8:55 so I had to run to the airport, get there. Everything looks like it's on time. We're in the Sky Club, go in and I use the restroom. My daughter was using my phone. I come out, she's like, I have bad news.

[C]

I was like, what, like bleeped while you were.

[D]

Yes. She's like, our flight's delayed two hours. And then she literally, as soon as she said, oh no, I just got another one. It's four hours. So I was sitting in the Minneapolis airport all day. I could have done the show from the Sky Club, but you know, they're a little bit cool, quiet in there and I'm a little bit loud when we get on the show.

[E]

I don't know, I've never been in the sky.

[D]

So then we boarded the plane for our four hour delay, got on, everybody's sitting down, we're getting ready to get the announcements. Pilot comes on, he goes, I have bad news. I was like, oh no. Oh man. He goes, our flight crew is timed out. They've been here since 4am and due to laws and regulations, we've got to get a new crew. So we've got a D plane and find a new crew. So we had to unpack, everybody out of the bags, go off. Another two hour delay. Basically sat in the airport from basically 9am to 4pm Just we watched three movies, we visited three different sky clubs because we had nothing else to do. We walked around. But eventually we got home safe, which is more than I could say for some of Our teammates are traveling today.

[C]

Oh, from the weekend?

[D]

Yeah. And it's spring break. It was rough enough to do one day of spring break in Minnesota in a blizzard, but at least we got out of there Monday.

[C]

Okay, so that was a Great City.

[E]

From May 15 to September 30.

[D]

I'm sure anything outside those dates, you're risking it. You know, if anybody needs any reviews on the Mall of America, we went there three days in a row because there was not much else to do. We got to see every bit of that thing. We got to do the rides we got, the restaurants. The food court's phenomenal because it's not just like your typical Sbarros and Auntie Anne's. They have every restaurant chain you could imagine in that thing. And we tested them all out. We tested all of them.

[C]

Did you. So the delays were all weather related. Did y' all get hit with any, like, TSA security backups or anything like that?

[D]

No, my wife was asking me that, and it wasn't bad at all. Like, we fly out of Palm beach, which is a pretty small airport in Minneapolis, a big airport, but it wasn't. There was a little line, but not three hours. Like Fort Lauderdale, where I live here, my wife's. So that was the best part of this. My wife felt bad for me. It was going to be my seventh weekend in a row, and she said, do you want me to go to Indianapolis? And before she could even finish asking, I let her know that I already booked the flights for her. So, yeah, you're good, honey, this weekend. So I got out of that one. So that was good.

[C]

Good work. Good work. Well, we miss you. Glad you're home safe. Glad you're rip roaring ready to go. All right, let's. Let's go ahead.

[E]

It's like the New York slice.

[C]

Minneapolis is a nice airport.

[D]

Yeah, it is. Yeah. A lot of shopping. More shopping if you were going to

[C]

be stuck in an airport. Yeah, it'd make my list for one of the better situations to be in. But again, we're glad you're back. All right, so if Vegas is right, a couple different categories we're going to dive into here to take a look at it, but we're going to start up at the title contenders. So Indiana win total at FanDuel Sportsback Sportsbook of 10 and a half. Oregon at 10 and a half. Ohio State at nine and a half. Danny, one thing Tom and I discussed just sort of in a real brief overall. Hey, what jumped out at you? You know, nine and a half For Ohio State, we're not used to seeing that. That's certainly something that's going to get your attention. Danny, you and I have talked about how we, you know, we wonder if any of these Big Ten title contenders are going to be able to get out. When you saw that sort of top tier, those, those three teams at the top who all want to be competing for national titles, they all want to be competing for Big Ten titles. What stood out among those three in terms of the way that these lines are set right now?

[D]

Finally we're getting the new normal, which is Indiana's a powerhouse. Like, we're actually all accepting that because after they made the playoffs last year, their win total was eight and a half last year. So this year it looks like they're finally getting the respect they deserve. So Kirk Signetti can't be all pissed off at Big Ten media days this year and act like, oh, they keep trying to screw us. They can't claim that. And then the other thing was Ohio State, like, the fact that they're not like Oregon. I feel like this is an annual tradition. They're just sitting at ten and a half. But for Ohio State, you know, they still have a lot of players back. I know they're losing some. Does this because the Texas game is on the road and they're chalking that one up as an L. The schedule's brutal. Michigan's going to be better, you would think, with Kyle Whittingham at the helm. So I think, you know, it is a very interesting win total that Ohio State is not at the top of the class. And I'm sure it's something that Ohio State fans will take note of and let us know about.

[C]

I mean, we are. So for this purpose, we're just going to be talking about like the totals when we do our win totals, picks. I'm sure prices will be a lot more of the discussion over for the Buckeyes. For those curious is minus one sixty. So we are juice. You are. If you're like nine and a half disrespectful, throw me down. You're going to pay for it. You know, this is not going to be something that's going to be split a little bit evenly. Tom, I know we talked about the Buckeyes a little bit, but especially as we see this group of contenders compared next to each other, what stands out to you?

[E]

That, I mean, it's. As Danny mentioned, it's Ohio State having fewer wins than two other programs in the league, and one of them's Indiana and one of them wasn't even in the league a few years ago. That is weird to see if you, if you've ever kind of followed expectations for Big Ten teams. But they're all, I mean I think they're right. Like I understand whether Ohio State is at nine and a half. As Danny mentioned, they've got a non conference road game against Texas and that's one of going to be one of the tougher non conference games in the slate. Their Big Ten slate is not overly easy. You know, it's, this is an interesting situation because you're looking at an Ohio State where maybe, maybe the tables will turn this year. Ohio State's going to be nine and three with like a, with like a road loss to Texas and going to be screaming about strength of schedule over some 10 and two team from like the SEC that's going to get in over them. Maybe, maybe we see the tables turn.

[C]

I am not ready for that.

[E]

You got, you got Tony Petitti on Fine Bomb screaming about strength to schedule and how games have to matter.

[C]

I mean they, I, I watched all four quarters of those whompings that they put on their non conference late the last two years. You know, I'm okay with that. I don't know if I'm ready.

[E]

Last year.

[C]

Yeah, we watched Texas.

[E]

Huh.

[C]

Texas last year. Yeah. Yeah. But we've, there have been a lot of Ohio's non competitive Ohio State, non conference games over the last three seasons.

[E]

Been a lot of non competitive Ohio State conference games over the last three.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Also incredibly fair. Yeah. The idea of a 9 and 3 Ohio State is something I'm, I'm not quite ready to wrap my head around.

[E]

Here we go. I'll give you like the scenario right here. You've got a 9 and 3 Ohio State with a road loss to Texas, a road loss to Indiana and a road lost to usc. But that means they've beaten Illinois, they've beaten Oregon and they've beaten Michigan.

[C]

So what do you do with that?

[E]

There's your debate at the end of the year.

[C]

Clip it. You know when, when it's Ohio State fans turning the tables on the sec, screaming about strength of schedule.

[D]

Why don't we even play? It's doing the exact same thing that Sark did last year. Like I'm gonna, We're never playing this game again. Never doing it.

[E]

Need to go back to eight conference games. This is. If they're only going to look at win loss records, what does it matter?

[C]

What about on the Oregon side of things, Tom I know Danny's already got the, the Ducks penciled in for Vegas in the national title game. Clearly you would need to be winning 10 games that, you know, you go under this and still be able to make the playoff and go and make a run to fulfill that prophecy. So what's it say to you about the, what we're looking at for the Ducks as, as Dante Moore makes his return. But man, not, not to step on your toes here, but there's a lot that has gone off of the team that last year made it to the semifinals.

[E]

Yeah, I do wonder, like you mentioned it, what is Oregon's win total if Dante Moore doesn't return? And like they're relying on a Dylan Rayola or something next year. Like are they still at ten and a half or do they move down to nine and a half? Because you look at the schedule like on the surface, Boise State and Portland State at home won't be problems. And you would think in a road game against Oklahoma State shouldn't be a problem, especially considering what they did to Oklahoma State last year. But it's a very different Oklahoma State this year. At least we expect it to be. They're on the road at usc. They're on the road at Ohio State. They get Michigan the week after that. They've also got a road trip to Illinois. I mean it's, it's not the easiest of schedules. So you do wonder. You mentioned they don't have a. They've got 14 starters returning, only six on offense. The defense returns most of it. But it's I, I think if you're Oregon, like we're talking about what this win total says for expectations and going into the season. Like Even if you're 11 and 1 or you're 10 and 2, does that make a difference to the fan base right now? Because it's like you're kind of used to Oregon winning 10 or 11 or 12 games during the regular season. It's the postseason where Oregon really to start figuring out a way, way, way to break through. So I think as long as they are near that 10 win total, it's not going to make any kind of difference to how anyone views them. It's going to be what they do in the postseason.

[D]

I think it's the consistency with which Dan Lanning has won. Their portal class isn't great 25th, but I think they've recruited phenomenally well and they're able to keep their players. They're good players because they can spend with anybody. You're not going to Outbid Oregon. And I do think it has a lot to do with Dante Moore coming back, you know. And I think he's gonna have to play, play, play better. He'd probably have to take a bigger role and another step forward. But I think we all think he should be able to do that. So I think it's a combo of all those. And somebody did point out in the chat I see this about Boise State has always been an issue as MERS for the chat. But remember two years ago, Ashton Genti, that was the big storyline and that game was close. They were losing one by three, you know, so that's a good one. Can't just chalk up some of these wins. I mean I think they should be fine. But it is. It is a tremendous amount of respect I think for Oregon. Home field is huge, tough place to play. And they've traveled well too.

[E]

4 they have to replace both coordinators.

[D]

Yeah. That's the thing that I'm surprised is getting more, you know, concern or why

[C]

that would be down 48 wins in four years. As the head coach of the Ducks, Dan Lanning is to back up that consistency you talk of six and three over the last two seasons with including a 171 record in regular season games against Big Ten competition. Yeah, it's. It is that level of an Ohio State, you know, where it's just okay, well let's see what happens when you get up on the big stage and you sort of sit back and get ready to go. Also on the retention piece of this, I. I'll need to get CP stats and info to double check it, but Dan Lanning claimed during the playoff run at a press conference that there are not a lot if any players who left that wasn't for better opportunities. I think he said we haven't had a starter leave to go be a starter somewhere when we wanted him to stay. That other. We have had players leave but it's for more playing time or a starting job or better opportunity. And so they. That is. That's a modern mindset, you know, like we are. We understand. Okay, you need to go. Go on.

[D]

That's fine.

[E]

If. If you look at their returning starters, there are 14 of them only that's tied for second with a whole bunch of other teams. The only team with more returning starters next year in the country is usc.

[C]

We will talk about in just a little bit. But first, coming up on the other side we got some first year head coaches. This is really what if Vegas is right was built on what does it say about Year one at Penn State, Michigan, UCLA and Michigan State. If Vegas is right, we'll get into all that and more next. You know, mental health can feel like this huge, complicated thing because if you hurt your arm, you see a doctor, no problem. But finding the right therapist, suddenly, it's confusing, expensive, and takes forever. That's why Rula is so great. They make therapy simple, fast and affordable. They accept most major insurance plans and the average session copay is just $15. 15 bucks. That's basically lunch money. But instead of a sandwich, you're investing in your mental well being. And here's the best part. Rula isn't just about matching you with someone. Every therapist is licensed, vetted, and picked for their expertise. They actually follow up to make sure you're making progress. You answer a few questions about what matters to you. Pick a time and you could be talking to a therapist as soon as the next day. No waiting, no guessing, no stress. Thousands of guys have already used Rula to finally get the care they needed. Don't keep putting it off. Go to rula.comcover and get started today. That's r u l a.com cover. Take the first step. Get connected and take control of your mental health. So good, so good, so good.

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[C]

I love you, Ruben. I do. Ruben's here in the tailgate. He says, let me be clear. Do we think it's just a coincidence that Danny was the face of justice for Miami and win the national championship and just picked them in his college football bracket. A closet cane.

[D]

He's in my ear all the time about the Hurricanes definitely might have influenced some of the picks last year in a good way.

[C]

Hey, I can be bought. I have never said otherwise. All right, if Vegas, if Vegas is right, continues with a look at the first year because every opening press conference comes out with being aggressive and multiple and competitive and and all of the things that are going to make a fan think what year one is going to be like under a new regime. But then you get sometimes cold sobering information from an objective outlet like the odds makers that paint a different picture. Now the first one, we're going to start at the top and work our way down. The first one is a larger number in my opinion, than the vibes slash positivity level because FanDuel sportsbook where you can play your game nine and a half is the win total for the Penn State Nittany Lions. We know a lot of Penn State alums, a lot of Penn State fans and I would think that if you had the same win total as Ohio State that if you had your only one win total off from Indiana and Oregon, fourth highest win total in the entire Big Ten. Be a little bit more buzz about year one with Matt Campbell.

[D]

Danny why, why is it only nine and a half?

[C]

Or, or why does nine and a half not line up with the way that people are talking, thinking and like looking at Penn State right now, I'm

[D]

actually surprised it's at nine and a half. I was going to ask you guys if it was James Franklin had stayed. I like they've been a pretty consistent 10 and 2 team until last season. The schedule is an absolute cakewalk. I know you've got to replace Drew Aller, but you've got Rocco Beckt coming in and if he doesn't win the job, I'd be surprised. But he's won a lot of games. He started a boatload of games like they do retain some talent and I'm surprised it's only nine and a half. I'm assuming this is juice. Pretty heavy to the over, aren't you?

[C]

I can pull this up right now,

[E]

but used to the under really? Yeah, I, I, they have four returning starters from last year and yeah they've they brought in Rocco Becket, but they've pretty much brought in the entire Iowa State roster.

[C]

That's where I'm at. And what's the power rating for Iowa State playing a Big Ten schedule? I'm not trying to like here, but that's, that's what I'm looking at and

[D]

that's what games are they. They're going to be favored and all but two, maybe three.

[C]

I mean, you made the Florida Gators favorites in 15 games on a 12 game schedule last week.

[E]

I mean, that's the thing. I, if I'm looking for a team right now on March 18, where I'm like the market is off or the market's kind of guessing just based on, well, it's Penn State, you know what I mean? And looking at the schedule like Penn Station, I think that this is that team because you don't really know. It's an entirely brand new roster, but it is a roster that has played together plenty of times. It's just they've played together in a different league, which is not as tough at the top as the Big Ten is and they haven't been that overly successful while playing in that league. So I look at Iowa State pretty much coming to the Big Ten and you've got to play usc. You're on the road for Michigan, you're on the road for Washington. Like, yeah, that's what I'm saying. You look at the schedule just on the surface and you're like, oh my God, Penn State should run through that. But it's not the Penn State you're thinking of. It's a very different Penn State. So personally, I know we're not doing our win totals now, but I'm very much a strong lean towards the under right now. And I think that by the time October rolls around and like the Big Ten schedule really gets going, might have a pretty different view of what Penn State is.

[C]

There are some crazy trips for the Big 12 in terms of you got a, I don't have Iowa State schedule put up, but you got to go to Provo Morgantown. Like there's, there's lots of different. But buddy, that trip to Seattle and then coming back and being able to get everything back on the same page, the, the week to week challenge. I mean, here I go on my SEC kick the meat grinder that is the Big Ten. I mean even some of these teams that are in the middle I think are better. I would rate them as better teams than the middle pack of the Big 12. So we'll see for.

[E]

I just looked it up like, just for the sake of whatever, like Penn State last year, very disappointing team. And in my personal power ratings at the end of the year, despite all the disappointment and crap, just based on like their numbers and their talent, I had Penn State is 20th best team in the country as far as power ratings are concerned.

[C]

Concerned.

[E]

Iowa state, I had 37th. So you take that 37th best team in the country and import it into the Big Ten where that would have ranked, let's see, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. That would have ranked 10th in the Big Ten last year. And they're at nine and a half wins. I don't know, man. Not saying it can't happen because, I mean, I. I campaigned for Matt Campbell to get the job for a reason. I think he's a very good coach and I think he's going to be here in the long term. I just don't know if 20, 26 is going to be like, all right, we're back.

[D]

So they will have fired James Franklin to go nine and three potentially, which is beating all the teams they're supposed to and not doing very well against the top 25 teams. Correct.

[C]

It was an emotional decision. No one said it was like a logical one.

[D]

You know what, what will be a. Will that be a disappointment? I mean, first year you're going to get a pass.

[C]

Yes.

[D]

What is a disappointment? 8 and 4, like 9 and 3 I think you could live with, but

[C]

Penn State, I don't think you can live with 9 and 3 if you get totally outclassed in your best games. I think that's a frustrating. That's a frustrating path into the off season and one that leads to a lot of year pressure in a year. Two for Matt Campbell.

[E]

Tough ask of any fan base, especially one coming off of, like, what Penn State is coming off of in their previous like, of what they expect to be. Personally, if I'm a Penn State fan, I don't really have any expectations for next year. I'm not looking for anything that's, like, going to be definitive as long. I mean, if we go three and nine, I might be like, oh, crap, we're in a whole hell of a lot of trouble. But nine and three, I'd be thrilled with eight and four, I'd be happy with seven and five. Like, okay, fine, whatever. We got to go next year. We got to let everything play out. 10 and 2, 11 and 1, 12 and. Oh, holy crap.

[C]

And this, I mean, no shock here that Tom, you might be a little bit closer to the pulse of Penn State on this one. But that might be.

[E]

Not as many flags around last year as in previous.

[C]

Tom's Neighborhood Flag Watch is the way that we understand the vibes. Indiana flags come out everywhere.

[E]

Everywhere.

[C]

They shout out It's Lake county, right?

[E]

Yeah, yeah.

[C]

Shout out to Lake County. I. You might be answering my initial question about the disconnect between this number and the buzz because truthfully, at their heart, Penn State fans might not have any expectations. I mean, you saw what expectations did to you last year. You know what? Actually good for you Penn State fans.

[E]

Self defense.

[C]

Yeah, this is very healthy for you. Self defense care year for Penn State fans.

[E]

A lot of self care Saturdays.

[C]

Yeah, a lot of self care Saturdays. You went into last year with sky high expectations and the roller coaster was so dizzying. You need to take a minute off the expectations roller coaster. Okay. And that's all right. I've been there, take some Dramamine, set this one out. And this is just going to be a year to hit the reset button. Maybe that is why we're not hearing as much from Penn State fans. Even though the win total is saying 9 and 3, 10 and 2. Maybe there's like, we'll see. We just want to have a good competitive football team this year. Matt Campbell opening win total set at nine and a half is a bigger win total than what Kyle Whittingham has at Michigan. Actually got to hear from from Kyle Whittingham this week as sprint as Michigan is opening up its first spring practice of the post Sharon Moore era. And really it's like the post Harbaugh Moore era. Like I mean we just, we're kind of, we're moving on. We're packing up, we're moving on now. Bryce Underwood is still there. Kyle Waitingham with a few words about that. Tom, what's your, what's your thought about what 8 1/2 says about the Wolverines here in 2026?

[E]

I, I think it's a reasonable expectation. I think that an eight and four year would probably be pretty disappointing for a Michigan fan. Like obviously everything that happened with Sherwan Moore, you move into Kyle Whittingham. Maybe realistically you should temper your expectations a little bit. But you have Bryce Underwood back. You have arguably and I don't even know if it's arguable as much as it's consensus wise upgraded at head coach. You have a very talented team. You also have a very friendly schedule. Do you know how many road games Michigan is playing before Halloween?

[C]

1.

[E]

And it's Minnesota on my birthday. But then they're at Rutgers, at Oregon and at Ohio State. Those are their only four road games. Like they have Oklahoma in the non con but they have to come to Ann Arbor. You're getting Iowa at Home, you're getting Penn State at home, you get Indiana at home, Michigan State, ucla. So those are pretty damn winnable games for the most part. Like, so if Bryce Underwood takes that step forward, if there is, you know, no real kind of bumps in the road from a new coaching staff coming in, but it's a coaching staff that's very familiar with each other. They're just not as familiar with the players. Like, this is a team that I feel like I should be going 9 and 3 if things are heading in the right direction. If you don't go nine and three, does Bryce Underwood stick around for the third year, or is it because Bryce Underwood just hasn't lived up to expectations? So it's like, it's one of those things. It's like, there's a lot of things that need to be answered here. It's a very interesting team to follow in 2026, and hopefully all the questions about this team will be about the actual football team and nothing going on on the sidelines or in the administration's buildings.

[C]

It's.

[D]

See, do you trust Michigan more than Penn State or do you feel same like, I do?

[E]

I do trust them. I love the coaching staff, and I do think that Bryce Underwood is a very talented player who, if he takes a step forward as a sophomore, is bound to look pretty damn good.

[D]

He's talented, but I do think that would be what would hold him back, you know, like, if he doesn't take that step forward. That's where I think you could see eight and four come into play. I do think this is a significant coaching upgrade with Kyle Whittingham and the staff that he's bringing kind of similarly, if they're 8 and 4, I think they're kind of irritated. I think they're a little bit like, all right, when are we getting back to the champion? Like, what. What's wrong with Michigan if they don't go better? If they're 9 and 3, I think you can swallow it. You're like, all right, you'll be in that conversation. You'll be right on the cusp of the playoffs, potentially. But 8 and 4, you're out of it. That's where I think you're starting to wonder. And then if they go 8 and 4, I think you're starting to look at how long does Kyle Whittingham stay around, you know, because I think their success kind of hinges on somebody who was ready to step away from the game, and I think this was the only opportunity he takes because it's Too good to be true. But if you start losing, taking some heat from the fans, gets a little restless. I think you're talking about the next year could be Kyle Whittingham's last.

[E]

And the other question mark about this team is defense because they've lost a lot from that defense over the last years. I think they've only got three returning starters in that side of the ball offense. They've got pretty much everybody back except for the running back position, but they've got, I think four of their five returning starters are on the offensive line. You got your quarterback. So this might be a team that looks a little different in that they're trying to outscore teams more than we're typically used to seeing Michigan do.

[C]

Yeah, Kyle Whittingham has indicated as much. It. It makes me think if this team does go eight and four, I don't have a good Michigan booster voice, so I'm not even going to try. But it's like Michigan boosters are sitting around saying, like, okay, so we called him a bridge. Coach, how long is this bridge? What, you know, what exactly is the game plan here? What's the two year? What's the three year? You go eight and four. Now people start to already start thinking about what the next coaching search is going to look like based on Whittingham's age and based on not meeting expectations with a super, super talented quarterback right off the bat. Fun, fun situation for us to go from, wow, what a coaching upgrade. We all think Kyle Whittingham is great. He's never had an opportunity at a program like this to now all of a sudden be facing the. Okay, now it's expectations. Everyone's always wondered what it would look like to have a coach with that kind of track record and reputation be able to take over a program like this. Now we're going to be able to see it. I tell you what, Tom, in the tailgate, while we were discussing just sort of an initial reads on the whole set of power conference win totals, I mean, they must have all come on board during Bud's safety issue safety vest season. So I've never seen so many people championing the UCLA Bruins of Bob Chesney. I mean, this guy just gets it, you know? I mean, this is, this is just. Have you, have you seen this guy talk to his team? He just gets it.

[D]

Have you seen how he treats the janitor? I have. And I like, he's awesome. He's been great. But is the roster awesome?

[C]

Because this is five and a half and on. You want to talk about disconnect of vibes and numbers. This is one where everyone's been drinking the Bob Chesney Kool Aid and they see five and a half and they're like, hammer it, Danny. I don't know if. I don't know if vibes can take you all the way to where you need to be against this schedule.

[D]

That's what I thought. The schedule and the expectations don't seem to match here. Also, I don't know where's their portal class. I'm trying to see where it was ranked because that was a. That thing that goes all the way back to Chip Kelly. Why he left was because he just didn't have the resources. And I think that's why they hired just Sean Foster. Like they didn't have the resources to go get one of the top coaches. Now they go get a really good coach. I think it's going to take a while for them to get up to speed with the type of money they're going to have to commit to the football program. To be in the same conversation as some of these others. Five and a half feels really low. But I think if you're, if you're five and seven, it wouldn't be surprising if you're six and six. I think it's. I think it's a great season for your year. 1.

[E]

I. Yeah, like, I don't think there's. I think some of the, like, there are probably some UCLA fans who think, hey, we hired the James Madison coach. We're going to, we're going 10, two, we're going to the playoff. That's just how it works when you hire from James Madison. But like Nico is. Are we putting more faith in Nico again? Like, am I going to fall into this trap once again and think that Nico is going to take a step forward and get better. They don't have really a whole lot of guys coming back, which is not overly.

[C]

I fell into this trap last year, Tom. I was UCLA win total over and saying if we're talking about coin flip games and you've got Nico, well, then that should be the like little win at the margin that be able to get you to the other side. That did not, did not come through.

[E]

They have 41 players in their transfer class and a lot of those are guys coming with Bob from jmu. And a lot of the others are also guys who were backups at P4 programs who didn't really have a path to playing time. So like you see a lot of Guys who were in the three deep at Ohio State and those kind of schools who've made the way to ucla, maybe they're returning closer to home. But you never really know how those guys are going to pan out. You know, sometimes they hit, sometimes they don't. So clearly UCLA is going for like a strength in numbers approach. In the trans report, we're going to get as many bodies as we can, see how many of them hit. But then you look at the schedule like they're opening with Cal on the road. Cal might be, you know, they got that. They could win that game pretty easily. They've got San Diego State, a good team from the Mountain west last year. They. That's not going to be a gimme for them. You have to play Maryland on the road, which is we have seen for west coast teams going all the way to the east coast, not great, more difficult. And also it's before October so Maryland will still be good. So like that game becomes more difficult. You've got Oregon on the road. Minnesota, you're on the road for a road trip. Then you're back on the road again for Michigan. Then you've got still got to play usc. Like I just bowl game. If, if I get to a bowl game in Chesney's year one buddy, we are on the way. That was fantastic. I am feeling great. If we don't get to a ball game, I'm probably fine with that too. Just give me some fun wins. Maybe beat USC to be end the year to make me feel good going into the off season.

[C]

At the, at the risk of putting on the black hat, five and a half might be too much. It might be a little too vibesy, you know, judging by the market. But it'll be interesting to see. I, I just thought that after he went to dinner with Bill Simmons it was all going to be fixed. You know, Bob Chesney goes to. Goes to dinner with Bill Simmons and many other LA dignitaries. I just thought, I thought that's all you needed to do to be able to change your financial future.

[E]

Bob. Bob goes to dinner with Bill Simmons and Bill just talks about the 85 Celtics the entire damn time.

[C]

I just, I did. We've got other more important topics to get through. But when I saw that photo, my mind did run through the like, what if Bill Simmons got too involved with UCLA football? I would be a fan of that narrative and storyline.

[E]

We've seen super boosters before.

[C]

I don't. I think the level for super booster at ucla. I think you could quickly Jump up to super booster more than you could. So at some of these other programs.

[E]

So UCLA jumps to number one in the Spotify top 25.

[C]

One more here. Tom's already called his shot and the tailgate took notice. At 8:47am Eastern Time. Jeffrey jumped into the tailgate and said, morning tailgate. And Jeffrey, we love that you get here early. Some of this conversation that you start is it's just very fun for us and always happy to highlight it on the show. Morning tailgate. In the spirit of if Vegas is right, I need a Bud versus Tom show. Bet on Sparty over under three and a half says Vegas. They think Fitz is completely washed. Loser runs the rich Eisen 40 yard dash. Tom, what say you?

[E]

Down.

[C]

Because though he is not here right now, Bud has been very out on the hire of Pat Fitzgerald. On the outlook for Pat Fitzgerald as a head coach in 2026. He has eliminated any success from the 2020 season to identify what he believes is a coach that has well past his prime. Three and a half is strikingly low.

[D]

I'll take the other side.

[C]

They're both on under.

[D]

I'll go over.

[C]

No, no, no, no, no.

[E]

Over.

[C]

That's why it's a show bet. Yeah, this is. Tom came right out the gate. He was like three and a half disrespectful.

[D]

I agree with Tom. I'll go on Tom's side. Yeah, I think this is disrespectful.

[E]

I mean, just Toledo they open with, that's going to be. I mean, Toledo doesn't have Jason Candle anymore, so there's no way they're pulling off an upset. They'll be, they'll be, you know, they'll be underdogs.

[C]

We take all of our Jason candle principles to UConn now, Eastern Michigan at

[E]

home, Nebraska at home. Like, they could beat Nebraska, Illinois, Northwest, Northwestern.

[D]

I mean, school.

[E]

Yeah. Then you're finishing the year with Rutgers. Like, you telling me you can't find four wins on this schedule? Do I. I don't think they're going to go on the road and beat Michigan. They might go on the road and beat Wisconsin. They definitely won't beat Notre Dame. But like, I, I think we downgrade Pat Fitzgerald. Like, I, I know Bud does not like the analytics of Pat Fitzgerald's teams and the kind of things that they did. But, like, think of the talent he had available to him at Northwestern and think of how many games he was able to win. And I know it was bad towards the end and it'd been bad really? Since COVID and the transfer portal became a real thing, he's no longer hindered by those restrictions. Think what you want. He's a good football coach. This is going to be a better team in 2026.

[D]

Gosh. We all thought Jonathan Smith was really good football coach too though. It's like maybe it's just a really tough place to win right now, but

[E]

I've been too married to Aiden.

[C]

Oh, speaking of Millie Jovovich. Hold on.

[E]

Alessio. Milo. Milo Jovovich.

[C]

Millie Jovovich.

[E]

Yeah.

[C]

Okay, Millie. Bobby Brown.

[E]

Millie, but like some weird Italian Serbian. He's like the Adriatic Sea with that whole name there.

[C]

The Adriatic arm.

[E]

There we go. Adriatic Alessio.

[C]

Adriatic Alessio. Yeah, I gotta work on. I've got. I've got obviously a little while to be able to pin that down, but that was one where. Because that was. The other thing that I think Bud is critical of is some of the staff hires. I think he's seeing some familiar names from, you know, times where he's been very out on the Pat Fitzgerald experience. And I. Do you remember Alessio as a, like as a prospect or sort of coming up. But there seems to be. Just from reading reports and tea leaves that's just kind of. He's. He's running like that's the projected QB one. Unless there's injury or something crazy happens. What's the. What's the book on him?

[E]

I mean he played a bit for him last year. It wasn't outstanding, but he was, you know, he was promising for a young kid, but he was. He's. He's from Illinois. From. Not too, not too close, but big kid, good arm, athletic. We'll see. You know who he reminds me of?

[D]

Chip? Who?

[E]

You ready for this?

[D]

I'm excited you say Ace and Caliac Manus. I'm gonna be like, no, no, no,

[E]

no, no, no, no, no, no.

[C]

They all look alike. They all look alike.

[E]

Anybody from that entire peninsula. The Madonian reminds me of a guy who was a king of the one yard sneak at the goal line. Little Mr. Barton Simmons protege, Clayton Thorson to see who Alessio reminds me of.

[C]

There we go. Now we're connecting some dots. Barton Simmons believed in Clayton Thorson. Long believe Clayton Thorson believed in Clayton Thorson. That's true vision right there. Vision and leadership at three and a half. You just mentioned a couple of those right there. A couple non conference opportunities. Some. Some games against the. I don't have it. The schedule pulled up. There also are some games where they're going to be 18 point underdogs, right?

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Okay.

[E]

You know, I just looked up the numbers from last year. Aiden obviously started more games, but both Aiden and Alessio played in nine games. Alessio had 30 fewer pass attempts, but they both finished with 10 touchdowns and only three interceptions. But Alessio had a higher completion rate. He had more yards per attempt, also fewer sacks taken and fumbles.

[D]

Surprisingly better quarterback play than I would have thought without seeing that before or a team that was that bad for

[C]

the because the team was so bad right now.

[E]

He also had. He also had Nick Marsh, who helps make quarterbacks look a little bit better than they are because he was awesome and he won't have him this year. So you do have to answer those questions. But I just think they'll be better along the lines of scrimmage this year than they were the last couple years and I think that will help.

[C]

Yep.

[D]

All right.

[C]

Coming up on the other side, from the new hires to the coaches that might be out of a job, we'll take a look at the hot seat situations in the Big Ten. And then before we get out of here, a section of the the Big Ten in the win total board where I'm going to call the elevator. These teams elevator up or elevator down. We'll get into all that and more

[E]

Next

[G]

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[B]

This Friday, the time traveling comedy movie of the year arrives. Mike and Nick and Nick and Alice only on Hulu. The film stars Vince Vaughn, James Marsden and Asa Gonzalez in a wild action comedy about one disastrous night that spirals out of control. And here's the twist. There are two Vince Vaughns. Don't miss Mike and Nick and Nick and Alice. Written and directed by Ben David Grabinski. Streaming this Friday only on Hulu. Rated R.

[C]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast continuing our if Vegas Is Right series. If you got any questions about Big Ten or you know, just anything from the the win totals conversations, come and join us live, 11:00am Eastern Time. Getting interactive on a Thursday tomorrow as. As we get you set with another edition of the mailbag. That is questions from the tailgate live. That is big old bag of mail questions and so much more. Counting you down. Or maybe, Danny, we could just. You want to just rip through the bracket tomorrow? Yeah, just like we'll just sit here and just do. Do a whole NCAA tournament preview with DK and Chip.

[D]

We could always do that, Justin.

[C]

Well, you. Hey, listen, it's up to the listeners and the viewers. You get in the tailgate, you start hitting us with basketball questions. We can be locked and loaded for that as well.

[E]

But it just dawned on me.

[C]

Yes, this.

[E]

This might be my last time on the show because I'm not here tomorrow.

[C]

Right.

[E]

And by the time we come back on Monday, Illinois might have beaten North Carolina so badly, that fires me.

[D]

If North Carolina gets through the first round.

[C]

Yeah, I was going to say if North Carolina beats Illinois, quote, so badly against all that size, against all that athleticism without an obvious perimeter defender. And something may potentially tragic has happened in the world. But yes, Tom. Tom will. Will be out tomorrow. You'll be riding with DK and Chip and we'll. Hey, listen, are we talking football or basketball at 8am tomorrow on the radio show?

[D]

Oh, basketball.

[C]

Okay, cool.

[D]

Whether we like it or not, we will be.

[C]

Well, I've got you. Hey, don't worry. I've got you. I've got you covered on that one. All right, back to the conversation at hand. Big Ten season upcoming, two coaches that I would say certainly carry the hot seat designation. Let's start out in Madison with Luke Fickle. You know, he. He got the vote of confidence. He got the endorsement, the public statement before the end of the last regular season. So Badgers fans knew that they were going signing up for at least another year of the experience. Well, Vegas says that the experience is likely to yield somewhere between a 7 and 5 or a 6 and 6 season. Danny, do you think that's a. Before we get into the. What it says about the team and the schedule. Is that good enough.

[D]

If they go 7 and 5? I do think it's good enough. 6 and 6 I think probably should be, but I think 7 and 5 is good enough. I'm a little more bullish on this team, maybe a little bit more blind faith and just believe in Luke. Fickle's a good coach. And they're finally schedules easing up a little bit. But they did finish the season strong, like as toxic as it was. And it was as bad a situation as is out there when you saw after they lost Ohio State, and it's like everybody's. He's done. He's done finish the season two and two with a couple good wins. You know, like, I. I think there's some young talent on that team now. They just got to get healthier at quarterback and better quarterback play. If they can get that just marginally better, I think they could be a team that could go to that upside. So I'm more of a believer and I do think 7 and 5 would kind of calm the. The seat a little bit.

[E]

No, I think if you go 7 and 5, I don't know if that's like celebrating. I think it's more relief. I don't know if it's saves him. I think, honestly, I think what would happen of it. It's. What might matter more in that situation is like, what's going on with other possible candidates like Jason X or any name that might emerge over the next year as the hot next, you know, new coaching commodity. Because, like, Wisconsin has put a lot of money into Luke Fickle, and they haven't really gotten the results. And then this year, now they made the whole big deal. Like, you know, we're gonna. We're gonna. Instead of paying the buyout, we're gonna put all that money into rebuilding the roster and putting together a football team that we believe is worthy of wearing the Wisconsin uniform. But like, I've mentioned it on the show, like, to me, their transfer portal class is more about quantity than quality. Like, they've got a lot of bodies in it. I don't know that I look at that class and see a ton of guys who are clear and obvious upgrades to me over what was on that roster last year. And I know there's a lot of, like, Colton Joseph was a good player for Old Dominion, but again, I've mentioned it many times. Also turned the ball over a lot while playing at Old Dominion in Conference usa. Now he's coming to a much tougher league. So you look at that schedule, I mean, let's say they do go seven and five. One of those losses will be Notre Dame. One of those losses is usc. They lose on the road to Iowa. That, and then they lose on the road to Penn State. That means they're losing either Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Michigan State, ucla, Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota. Again, like, you feel great about with that 7 and 5, like, what's win at that point? So I don't know. Like, I. I feel like the win Total is correct. But if I'm not feeling great about Luke Fickle and where things are going, if I'm a Wisconsin fan, if we

[C]

win fewer than eight games, I think six and six. No, sir, seven and five comes down to aesthetics, because I would take a seven and five, Tom, if you traded me one of those obvious losses for a rise up and get a good win or a win that means a lot. Like the Iowa game. You just gave them Iowa as a loss. They beat Iowa, but then maybe slip up in another one of the coin flips on the other side of it. Or if you maybe get an even more impressive win, maybe you take down, maybe you go beat Penn State and Happy Valley. You know, like, just to go get yourself something that you can hang your hat on. It's got to be 7 and 5 with a good win that fans feel good about, but that you're not truly emboldened with that schedule. Unless it's 8 and 4.

[E]

I don't think I would also say too, like, Dan, you mentioned that they finished strong and they beat Illinois, they beat Washington, and there was, like, good buzz building into the off season, but they threw that all away by losing to Minnesota 17, seven. It's like, that's. You can't be losing that game that they've lost it with, like, two or three years in a row now, and just with how kind of sad they looked in that game, too. It was just. It was like. So I don't. I don't know. It's. It's an odd situation.

[D]

Also, the oddness of the contract at the end of the season, when Luke Fickle says, I don't want the extension, like, I didn't earn it. Like you do. Wonder what that hinges. Like, Luke Fickle might realize, hey, this is about as good as it's going to get unless you guys give me more money, to. Which they've supposedly given to him. So that could play into part in the conversation as well.

[C]

Off the top of your head, Because I'm doing this right now. Who in college football is the face of getting out of town ahead of the firing squad?

[D]

You talk about a few years ago? Satterfield.

[C]

Oh, Satterfield's one, Holgerson's another.

[E]

Yeah.

[C]

Who's the face of, like, who's a good example of someone who we've thought of? Yeah, I mean, he. He's get out ahead of the recruit saying, I commit. You know, walking out at dinner. Because that. I mean, I hadn't thought about that. You know, maybe he's Looking around, this is not what I thought it was going to be. This is not a good fit. I'm going to, you know, I'm going to go take an opportunity elsewhere. Might happen. We'll see. I think that Iowa, Minnesota, if you're going to be at 7 and 5, you better be winning the games that mean something to Wisconsin fans if you want to be able to have any impact on the conversation elsewhere. Mike Loxley, rebooting the staff once again. We do have Malik Washington back. You're able to hold on to him. That's very, very important. I think that not being able to retain Washington might have been a reason for Maryland to try to pursue another head coach. Four and a half, though bleak. Is this job open in the. Okay.

[E]

Unless they have like a 7 and 5, 8 and 4 kind of year, he's gone. I. There's no. Just based. Like, do you really think five and seven Locks is getting another year? I mean, I think the only reason he's back this year was financial reasons and they didn't want to lose players. But if they have. Is he. If he has them for two years in a row and they don't get to a bowl game either year, they're going to move on.

[D]

Trying to look for the wins.

[E]

I know they're not easy to find.

[D]

Right. So that's why I think Locks might be. Might be done.

[E]

I mean, start two and oh. But Virginia Tech is much tougher now. And it's just. Yeah, it's.

[C]

He two years ago at Big Ten media days, he showed up confident, coming off a couple of bowl seasons in a row saying, you know what? I think we really have, like, found our footing. We've established the standard and. And now we need to. You know, he was talking about sort of pushing it forward. Like that was. That was a good foundation in a floor. Then the. That year, which of course would have been the 2024 season, went. Did not go well. So he shows up the next year and he's saying, I lost the locker room. I'll never do that again. And then last year didn't go well. And so, yeah, we're. We're far from the picture that he painted two seasons ago of the current state of Maryland football.

[E]

You are 2 and 16 in the Big Ten the last two seasons, and you have never had a winning record in the Big Ten since you took the job. Five and seven ain't gonna get you another year.

[C]

No, that's. Yeah, that is Maryland a good job.

[D]

Somebody gotta get the checks. What's Bud State.

[C]

Take the checks, take the losses.

[D]

Yeah.

[E]

Yeah. I don't. I don't think that athletic department's in a great spot right now as far as competing with the kind of money you need in this league. They're in the league for a reason. The reason they left the ACC money. Mm.

[C]

This cable boxes money. It's. It's tough. See a Buzz Williams, no tournament. Mike Locksley, no bowls.

[E]

I mean, I know the relationship. I don't know what the situation would have been because I'm pretty sure most of the people at the time are gone. But if I'm Maryland, I would have gone all in and trying to convince James Franklin to come back when he was available that last year, but now he's at Virginia Tech, so it's going to be even more difficult for you.

[C]

Oh, yeah.

[D]

Well, because Virginia Tech put that whole package together for him. Maryland would have done that.

[E]

I know. That's what I think they have to do. I just don't think they can.

[C]

Tough. If I really feel for anyone that we know who might be University of Maryland grad and might listen to this podcast or be our boss or anything. All right.

[E]

You mean, few people know Scott Van Pelt's our boss.

[C]

All right, let's. Let's. Let's wrap this up with. We can go a little rapid fire, but, you know, I'm. I'm shaking out the whole board. I'm grouping things together, you know, looking for story lines and ways these things connect. And I found four teams that I would say are all good teams, just definitively good teams. They have win totals either at 7 and a half or 8 and a half. So the question is, what is more likely that this team not only goes over, but maybe over by a game and a half? So for the eight and a half, it means you can flirt with 10 wins, or is it more likely that you go lower? Which would mean that if you're at seven and a half, you just skate into the postseason at six and six. So usc, eight and a half wins. What's more likely, taking the elevator up or the elevator down?

[E]

Up.

[C]

Agree. Is that all Jaden Maiva, Like Lincoln Riley.

[E]

Yeah. You have one of the better quarterbacks in the. In the conference. This is what, his fifth year there now? Fifth or sixth. Like, this is.

[D]

Who's taking over the defense?

[C]

Gary Patterson.

[E]

Gary Patterson, like, did you know that answer?

[C]

Was that for performative reasons or a little bit?

[D]

I mean, I kind. I. You remember?

[C]

Yes, yes. What about the. What about Danny? What about the Illinois Fighting A linei elevator. Elevator down seven.

[D]

And now one of the big reasons I'm up on, on these teams, you get Maiva back. I think we were Luke Altmire podcast because he's been so solid. I kind of need to see what they're going to do there before I buy in.

[E]

Yeah, a lot of questions about Illinois next year. Like, Altmire's gone. You've lost your entire offensive line, you've lost your entire defensive line. You don't have many returning starters, you have a new defensive coordinator, you have a new defense. Like they're implementing a new system. I think Katen Houser is a good quarterback. He's going to keep the floor high. It's just you look at the question marks on the roster, you look at the schedule, which is not overly punishing but not exactly easy. Like, this is a team that could very much be in like a 7 and 5 kind of range, which would kind of stink based on previous momentum. But long term thinking wouldn't be the worst thing.

[C]

You don't, you just don't want to see this hit a 4 and 8,

[E]

you know, you don't want to see him crater.

[C]

Right, right, right. All right. What about the Iowa Hawkeyes? Seven and a half. What's more likely, jumping up to nine or falling down to six?

[D]

I just can't quit. Kirk Ference, he always over delivers, you know, I mean, just always over delivers. The expectations are always blah.

[C]

They're always here. 7 and 5 or 8 and 4.

[D]

Yeah.

[E]

You lose a lot on your offensive line. Your, your entire defensive line is gone. We have no idea. Like the quarterback situation. They didn't go to the portal and land anybody that they're bringing in an in house option, which to me is terrifying. It's just based on what I was typically done over the years. That's never good. You have to play Michigan, Ohio State, you got Illinois on the road. You're at Washington, you're at Minnesota. Like, I don't know, man. Like, they're Iowa, they could be nine and three. They're Iowa, they could be six and six.

[C]

And then finally the Washington Huskies. As we're repairing the relationship, we're staying together for the kids and to avoid litigation. Or is, is this, is this gonna be a heartwarming tale of forgiveness in a 9 and 3 season? Or do we see some of the scarring of, of the last couple months come through and they just kind of, just kind of ho hum their way to a perfectly fine bowl season?

[E]

I think it could be a good year for Washington. I think that as long as you know, the locker room is accepting and moves on and forgives their quarterback. This is an offense that has a lot like they lose Denzel Boston, but they've got a lot coming back. They pretty much got their entire offensive line back. They have a very manageable schedule, particularly at home where they've got Wazoo, Utah State, Eastern Washington, Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State and Indiana, which, I mean obviously Indiana, but overall very manageable. And that's a tough place to go in and win your road slate. You've got to play USC and Oregon on the road, which are going to be tough. And then obviously road trips for all west coast teams are difficult. But Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, not overly punitive. Like I, I think this is a Washington team that could have a pretty damn good year. They could be one of the, like they could be that surprise fourth place team come the end of the season.

[D]

You know what also is kind of flun flown under the radar because of the drama that took place with the quarterback. So all those jobs were open. I mean Judd Fish. I mean there was a lot of conversation about Jed Fish. Like I don't know. I, I think he's a good coach. I think he's over. I think he's done a really good job. But I just wonder about culturally. You know, there's a lot to overcome. Like I mean his wife wasn't happy. He wanted the UCLA job, he's wanted Florida job. Just wonder how that's received now granted players are able to compartmentalize and he's done a good job pulling it all together. Just worries me a little bit. But I'd probably lean over because of returning quarterback play.

[C]

I get the sense that Fish might be okay at be where your feet are. You know, just he, he loves. Yeah.

[D]

Call it maximize right here.

[C]

He loves like thinking about an offense and trying to go out and win games. So I'll, I'm. I'll. I'll stay in, I'll stay in the jet Fish camp on, on that side. But even some of the ways he talked about whether how committed he was, like will you say that you. You know when reporters are trying to pressure him and ask him about other jobs. Even some of the comments were a little bit of like tip your antenna a little. Say what? Say that again. But I, it's. It's tough for me to imagine the Huskies just falling off the map by any means. I would say more likely to go elevator up a 9 and 3 season would not stun me.

[E]

Yeah. Brian mentions in the chat, like the losses he thinks of Denel, Boston and Jonah Coleman are undersold. I get that. But I would say like in their recruiting class, they got that Christian Moss kid from Kennesaw State who I thought was pretty good. I had to watch a lot of Kennesaw State last year. I thought they were decent. And then the running back that they got from Troy, Trey Cooley, I think is a good player. So I, I think that, you know, they're going to be pretty okay at those spots.

[D]

Yep.

[C]

Will be interesting to follow again if you want to come jump in, talk more about the Big Ten win totals. We will continue the if Vegas Is Right series over the next couple of weeks. Come join us getting interactive on a Thursday for a mailbag episode 11am YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fidelity. You can follow him at Danny Canal. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[E]

Thank you.

[D]

See ya.

[B]

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