Cover 3 College Football Podcast — Mailbag! Best Players NOT Going to the Draft & Unrealistic Fan Bases

Date: February 5, 2026
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Overview

In this lively Mailbag episode, the Cover 3 crew tackles several listener questions, focusing on the best college players who didn’t declare for the NFL Draft and could have, alongside a robust discussion about which fan bases have unrealistic expectations heading into the 2026 season. There’s plenty of analysis about roster construction, NIL/portal impact, and how teams and fan bases handle changing fortunes. The crew brings sharp insight, playful banter, and data-backed opinions, making this a must-listen for any college football fan.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Recruiting, The Transfer Portal, and Star Power (03:51—09:15)

• Listener Question: Has high school recruiting changed due to the transfer portal?
  • Arch Manning Example: The group agrees that a big-name QB like Arch Manning would always command attention, portal or not.
  • Lesser-Hyped Recruits: Players not at major programs or with less high-profile recruitment—like Keyshawn Henderson—get less attention.
  • Impact of the Transfer Portal:
    • Top 20 QBs out of high school have a "30% chance of never being a P5 starter" (05:05, Tom).
    • Many end up as G5 backups; busts are rarely physical, more often mental or off-field issues.

Notable Quote:

“If you are a top-20 rated quarterback, you got about a 30% chance of never actually being a P5 starter. You also got like a 15% or 18% chance of making $15 million plus in your career.” — Tom Fornelli (05:05)

2. Best Players Who Did NOT Declare for the NFL Draft ("Run It Back All-Stars") (10:05—22:41)

Roster Construction Trends

• Early NFL entry numbers have dropped, thanks to NIL and the portal. Bud says, “...what we have now is almost cut in half [from] what we had five, six, seven years ago, and how good that is for college football” (09:15, Chip).

Bud's "Run It Back All-Stars":

• Offense:

  • QBs: Arch Manning, Dante Moore
  • RBs: Justice Haynes, Mark Fletcher
  • WRs: Deuce Robinson, Trey Richardson, Eric Singleton
  • OL: Carter Smith, Trevor Goosby, Kaden Green, Bruce Mitchell, Austin Siereveld, PJ Williams
  • TE: Jamari Johnson

• Defense:

  • Edge: Damon Wilson, Mateo Uiagalelei
  • DT: Amarian Washington, Bear Alexander, AJ Holmes, Ahmad Moten
  • LB: Rasheen Biles, Kip Lewis
  • DBs: JVON Cole, Jamari Sharp, Kelly Jones, Bray Hubbard, Brendan Jordan

Discussion Highlights:

• NIL allows stars to stay in CFB, possibly improving their long-term prospects.
• Tom (13:30): “I think this offense is $25 million alone.”
• The SEC has only a few on this “All-Star” list; panel notes it’s likely coincidence.

Quote:

“This is like the national championship team favored by a ton…no college team would be competitive with this team.” — Bud Elliott (10:41)

Defense is Deep but Thinner at LB & DB:

• Bud: “With that defensive line, who the hell cares?” (18:12)
• Lack of Georgia players on the list hints at their youth and that many just weren’t eligible.

3. Impact of NIL and Transfer Portal on CFB Quality (22:05—22:41)

• The consensus: Top-end college football talent is sticking around longer.
• Chip: “College football just continues to see the high end talent improve… the sport as a whole just continues to be able to be a lot better at the top…” (22:05)

4. Fan Bases with Unrealistic Expectations (25:32—46:15)

Ole Miss Example:

• Henry (listener) worries the “new standard” at Ole Miss sets up disappointment.
• Hard Schedule Alert: “At Vandy, Missouri, at Texas, host Auburn, host Georgia, at Oklahoma with no byes is a pretty hard six game stretch.” — Tom Fornelli (27:39)
• If they go 7–5, it could feel disastrous despite the context.

How 1-score games distort perceptions:

• Bud: “They went 6–2 in one-score games… only won them by 2.8 points per game.” (27:50)
• Compare with Auburn, Arkansas, Penn State, FSU—all sunk by close losses.

Other Teams Discussed:

• Indiana: After last year's surprise title, is aiming for Big Ten title contention actually delusional? The consensus: NO, the expectations are realistic given the roster and coaching.
• Kentucky: New coach Will Stein has a tough task—making a bowl is realistic, despite media hype after a stellar portal class (32:09–34:49).
• Texas A&M: Lost key staff and players, tough road schedule, but maybe expectations are too lofty (35:04–36:14).
• Clemson: Only ranked in two of 11 way-too-early Top 25s; should not be in any, says Chip (36:49, 37:07).
• Louisville: Could be favored in all 12 games, but still vulnerable (“0–2 vs. Cal last two seasons” — Chip, 39:47).
• LSU: Should make the playoff with their roster, any less is a disappointment.
• Michigan: Fanbase might expect 10-2+, but hosts point out schedule is tough and 9-3 is more realistic.

Notable Quotes:

“Every year [for Ole Miss] they went 6–2 in one-score games…But they only won them by an average of 2.8 points per game.” — Bud Elliott (27:50)
“If LSU does not make the playoff…as far as like amount of talent wasted?...No, no.” — Tom Fornelli (45:10)

5. Mr. Beast & the Billionaire NIL Donor Fantasy (48:36—56:43)

• Mr. Beast (YouTuber, Greenville NC resident) teases spending $100M on ECU football to chase a natty.
  • Panel riffs: This would become the story of the year/decade/era (48:59).
  • $100M at an American Conference school would utterly distort the playing field.
  • Tom: “If you had $100 million in the American, I am confident...literally anybody could head coach that team...to the American championship.” (53:14)
  • Speculates about funny consequences: Would coaches have to dress like pirates for YouTube?

Quote:

“Nothing would distill how insane things have gotten...if Mr. Beast went out and got 75 practice squatters and replaced ECU’s full football team to go win the national championship…” — Chip Patterson (50:01)

6. Quick Fire: Super Bowl, Sam Darnold’s Legacy, and USC Quarterbacks (57:08—62:00)

• Picks for the NFL’s Big Game: Seattle favored, but uncertainty over QB play.
• Fun facts about Sam Darnold and his “all-time” status at USC (and his grandfather Dick Hammer, a true Renaissance man).

Notable Quotes

• On NIL success:

  “This is the national championship team favored by a ton.” — Bud Elliott (10:41)

• On one-score games:

  “They won the overwhelming majority of them...but they only won by an average of 2.8 points per game.” — Bud Elliott (27:50)

• On Michigan expectations:

  “I think the fans are probably thinking 10–2 or better. And I’m leaning 9–3 or lower.” — Danny Kanell (41:02)

• On ECU’s billionaire fantasy:

  “If you had a hundred million dollars in the American, I am confident...anybody...could head coach that team.” — Tom Fornelli (53:14)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 03:51 | Listener mailbag: How transfer portal changed recruiting, focusing on QBs | | 10:05 | Run It Back All-Stars! Best players who didn’t declare for NFL Draft | | 13:30 | NIL “salary cap” talk — how much would this All-Star offense cost? | | 16:19 | Defense “Run It Back” All-Star selections and discussion | | 25:32 | Unrealistic CFB fan expectation mailbag (Ole Miss, Indiana, Kentucky, etc.) | | 35:04 | Texas A&M: Losses, staff turnover, schedule risk | | 36:45 | Clemson: Top 25 rankings and realistic season outlook | | 39:07 | Louisville’s schedule and playoff odds | | 41:00 | Michigan’s fanbase and expectation debate | | 48:36 | Mr. Beast, ECU football, the wild billionaire scenario | | 57:08 | NFL talk & Sam Darnold’s legacy and fun facts |

Tone and Language

The conversation is lively, playful, and informed by deep data and inside knowledge. Quotes and discussion combine thoughtful analysis with classic Cover 3 fun and banter.

For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode covers the biggest open questions and storylines heading into 2026: player retention thanks to NIL, roster-building trends, programs trying to navigate rapid change, and how hope (or delusion) lives on in every fanbase. The “Run It Back All-Stars” provide a star-studded snapshot of CFB talent, and the Mr. Beast bit is a hilarious-yet-possible look at the future of NIL chaos. Panelists end with some sports nostalgia and NFL predictions, rounding out another essential week in college football podcasting.