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Cover 3 College Football
Mailbag! Big Ten Scheduling, Notre Dame’s Win Total & MORE! | College Football
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A
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Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
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C
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where we do have questions that we are going to get to because it is an interactive Thursday. We've got questions from the tailgate, we've got questions from Twitter, we've got questions from the big old bag of mail where if you've gone and left us a five star review and you put in a question, we will tackle it in a future mailbag episode. At the moment, Tom is. Tom is trying to paint me as something I am not. I am just not going to be here for it.
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B
Diva.
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C
There is nothing sparkling or bubbly. I mean you can see right through that. That is no effervescence. We are drinking Hto the old fashioned way, baby.
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B
Danny's playing sawgrass. Bud is plotting to take over the world through AI. Chip needs his sparkling water. Me, the only real person here sitting and waiting to start the show. But we gotta wait for Chip. Oh, sorry, I have to go get my water.
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C
Listen, when it's only the two of us, it's gonna be a lot of heavy lifting. Dry parts, throat won't be able to get it done. Here we gotta be ready to go. So very fired up to do that. The first thing that I wanted to jump into was what we did promise at the end of this, if Vegas is right series. Because we went through the SEC, we went through the Big Ten, we went through the Big 12, we went through the ACC, but the tailgate all throughout the series has been asking, what about our Notre Dame Fighting Irish? So it is only fair that we do give Notre Dame some shine. Where the win total is set at what, what, 11 and a half. Now the over is plus 160. The under is minus 200. We've got the very bananas reality that is a Notre Dame team that is projected to go 11 and 1, you know, and has the possibility of going 12 0. And if you think that you're going to be the wise guy and be like, oh, I'm going to jump on the other side of the hype, it'll cost you a pretty penny. So we always have said, if Vegas is right. What does it tell you about the expectations for the season? The expectations for the season is that Notre Dame is going to should win every damn game.
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B
Yeah. I mean, it's funny because like, we've approached it so far, like, what does this win total mean for this team, for this coach, if they exceed it, if they go past it? Like, this is a crazy number, especially in the modern era. But like, when you look at the schedule, it's not impossible to think Notre Dame goes 12 0. I mean, they, they don't have an easy schedule, but comparatively.
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C
But it's like the Wisconsin game doesn't look like a Wisconsin might look. And when it was scheduled, for example.
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B
Yeah. And Michigan State doesn't look like you would think Michigan State would at North Carolina. Doesn't really look that difficult at byu. Okay. Miami at home. Okay. Smu. Okay. But like there's not. Oh, they can't. They have no shot in hell of winning that game. But I think honestly, more than the win total, like Notre Dame's entire season will be judged by. And this is going to be the case every year until the sport changes. Are they in the playoff or not? That's really the only.
- [04:48]
C
I think this team is also. Do you win a playoff game? I don't think one and done would cut it for this team.
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B
Like if they go 11 and 1, great. But if they don't win a playoff game while they're there, they're not going to be happy with the season if they go 12 and oh, and they don't want to playoff game. They won't be happy with the season season. So they could go 10 and 2 and finish below this total a game and a half and as long as they're in the College Football Playoff, it's fine. So I, I think that is the expectation and really what matters more than the record, it's do they get in and how far do they go in when they're there? Because this is a team that should be competing like, like this is a. I don't know if we want to start talking about teams this way, but this is like a team with Final four potential. I mean.
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C
Well, I think it's fair to say, I think it is fair to say that this is that one of the seasons, the first season maybe in a while that you're going in very clear eyed saying Notre Dame's a top three team. Is that fair?
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B
Yeah, I mean they're going to be top three, I assume in the preseason polls.
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C
Yeah, I, I think so. Defensively, they're going to have one of the best defensive backfields in the country. Like just hands down. They've got a lot of pieces to replace up in the front seven, but they've been recruiting at a pretty good level there. C.J. carr, based on what he showed as a red shirt freshman, gives us a lot of reason to be excited and the while the wide receiver room has been something we've always pointed to and always kind of picked apart. Feel like they're getting enough right now out of that group to be able to think that that's not out of place. Now you are losing an absolutely bananas outstanding running back. But you're Darian Price has been pretty good too running at that second spot and I know that there's some depth in that running back room.
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B
Price is gone too.
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C
Oh, Price is gone too.
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B
Yeah.
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C
Who's our running back?
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B
It's probably going to be Aeneas Williams. They got Kedron Young. There's a freshman coming in whose name escapes me that I know they're high on, but I don't know how much of a role he'll see right away.
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C
Did was Aeneas. I know Price did some special teams. Did Aeneas ever do special teams? Like any return work?
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B
Couldn't tell you off the top of my head. But I mean it was mostly Price from what I can remember. Let's see, kick returns. Yeah, Anias, he returned two kicks and he returned zero punts. So yeah, he has some specialty.
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C
Yeah. Yeah. But it was Price. It was Price. Probably what I was thinking of in my Head. The. There are all of the pieces to be there, and I don't. I cannot think off the top of my head. The last time that we've gone in, Notre Dame has occupied a space where. Under Marcus Freeman, and really, even in the late College Football Playoff era, when you think back to, you know, making the College football playoff in 2018, making the College Football Playoff in 2020 under Brian Kelly, Marcus Freeman, being able to string together some successful seasons back to back, I think that for the Fighting Irish, this is the one year where I'm jumping them out of. Yeah, they're somewhere 8 to 11. Like, you would never get to 12 or 15 in your ranking of teams going into a year. This is the first year where I'm like, no, Notre Dame has to be up inside the top five. That's the one. Remember, we had a friend who did, like, a top 30 last off season. Didn't include Notre Dame.
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B
Nope.
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C
And then it was like, oh, okay. And even he came back and said, you know, that that was a mistake. On. On.
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B
My bad.
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C
Yeah, my bad. My bad. But this is the one year where I think Notre Dame outside of the top 10 is going to get a big WTF kind of response from the college football community.
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B
Yeah. They started last year at 6 in the preseason AP poll. So I. I do like. Like I said it, I think the top three are going to be Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame. Like, maybe Georgia gets that third spot over the Irish. But it would be close. Like, whatever the final points are, I'm guessing there's going to be two or three points separating.
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C
Yeah, it'll be. That'll be sort of the top tier. As we're. As we're breaking it down and as we're looking at that one, some questions from the tailgate that are tied to that. Raymond says if Notre Dame goes 10, 2 with this top three roster and misses the playoff, it's on. Marcus Freeman.
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B
Oh, I thought MF stood for something else when I first read that. Like, I thought, like. Like this was gonna be, like, a revolution. He was getting his gun. If they leave us out again, it's on.
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C
They will storm. They will storm Notre Dame Stadium.
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B
It was a peaceful protest.
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C
Do you agree? How about this one? Do you agree with this? Do you think 10 and 2 is Notre Dame out of the playoff?
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B
It depends on the 2 and the 10. I mean, like, we just saw 10 and 2.
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C
Notre Dame missed the playoff last season.
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B
If. If they lose to Miami and they lose to byu and those are the only two, like, kind of playoff contendery teams that they face. Or maybe smu. I mean I think BYU on the road is more likely than smu. You at home. But I digress. And like your best win is then either BYU or SMU and like Wisconsin maybe is still like a 6 and 6 team. Michigan State maybe isn't that 6 and 6 range? North Carolina. But we talked their win total yesterday was what, six and a half so. Or four and a half. It was six and a half. So it's like it could be a very similar situation to last year where they're up against other teams for at larges that maybe they have a head to head loss to in Miami if Miami somehow fails to win the ACC or BYU if they don't win the Big 12, so. Or SMU, you know, so it's going to depend on who it is. Like if they go 11 and 1, they're in for sure. If they go 10 and 2, I mean that's part of the down like they get the automatic where they're in the what top 10 now they're in top 12, they're automatically in. Yeah, but that's a bonus. But one of the downsides is if you are not in a conference and you don't have a automatic berth as far as the conference championship, if you go 10 and 2, you kind of leave things up for debate because the committee can always just leave you outside the top 12 if they don't think you're good enough to be in.
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C
Great point there to remind everyone about some of the changes in the overall selection process. Conference champions from the Power 4 automatic bids. That means that Duke would have been in this past season after winning the ACC. Notre Dame, if you're inside the top 12, you would be in which they would have been this past season ranking just in that spot instead of getting bounced out. The other wrinkle that we're going to continue to remind you about throughout this process is the fact that the Group of Six representative, the designated survivor for the College Football Playoff does not have to be a conference champion. It is simply the highest ranked team from outside the power conferences. So lots, lots to be able to kind of, you know, wrap your mind around. I would say if you are from the Group of six and you want to make the College Football Playoff, it would behoove you to win on championship Saturday as the whole committee is all gathered around together against a team who very likely is the second best team in your conference. However, it is a change to the language that that could end up becoming Significant when we get down to the end of the season. More from the tailgate regarding Notre Dame. This one was an interesting question. Has there been any lasting impact between Notre Dame and the conferences from the playoff fallout last year? There were so many stories between Notre Dame's reserve spot and scheduling frustration. All's quiet now.
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B
The other conference is new.
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C
They signed up for it.
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B
Yeah, it was everybody else. You didn't know or at least didn't realize it. I mean, like the Big Ten. Yes, they all knew. They all agreed to it. Like they're in charge. They're the ones who put this thing together. So, no, there's no fallout now scheduling wise between schools. Like I brought it up at the time. If you are a school who fancies yourself a playoff contender and you view Notre Dame as a threat to one of your at large spots, then yeah, you could have motivation not to schedule them because you're helping them out. They might. You, you might be handing them your playoff spot. So we'll see how some teams handle that going forward. But as far as right now, I mean, there's been the usc, Notre Dame stuff where, you know, USC has been kind of backing out of that for all we know. Again, the conferences have known about this top 12 thing for a while. USC might be doing that already. That might be one of the motivating factors by them not wanting to continue the series.
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C
I will be curious when we get to hear from Notre Dame again because Notre Dame really went after the acc, you know, with some, some sternly worded comments, released reporters to be able to seemingly drive some issues with their relationship with the Atlantic Coast Conference. It's kind of up to Notre Dame how big a deal they want to make this. You know, like you said, everybody signed up for it. We'll see if they end up, you know, if it continues to be a narrative moving forward. I will say all is quiet now because it's done. You know, everybody's moved on now. What about the playoff fallout from deciding that you're not going to do the postseason whatsoever? I would argue that we'll see.
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B
You know, that's more reputational. I don't know if the playoff really cares that much.
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C
No, I. No, no. I was gonna draw much to the chagrin of our heavy Notre Dame delegation in the tailgate. I was going to do something that was going to make them upset.
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B
Do it.
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C
We have a university that we, we have visited recently that decided they were going to take their ball and go home and it cursed their program forever.
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B
True.
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C
That's when it comes to fallout, that's the only thing I'm worried about is have you torpedoed your culture?
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B
I said I don't, I don't. You can't talk about your culture and then have everybody sitting around celebrating the fact that you don't want to play football.
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C
Right.
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B
That's part of your culture now. And then you release a video about it. That's part of your culture. Everybody in that locker room knows, hey, us choosing not to play. Coach is good with it. School's good with it. Social media accounts are good with it. That's who we are.
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C
I, I'm, I kid. I kid. Raymond. Raymond says don't be surprised if Notre Dame comes out in the next couple years. They announced they will not renew the ACC agreement. Buddy, that agreement renews in 2036. We'll be. Artemis is in the air. We'll be playing football on the moon. Are you kidding? You think, you think I'm concerned about what the note, what's going to happen with meteorites deals renewal in 2036? Buddy, we're just trying to figure this out.
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B
I'm just gonna go on the record and say I don't think we get to the end of that deal before things have changed.
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C
Before the world. Yeah. Before all of college football ends up changing. It is. How about this one? It's probably more likely that they, they figure out that. Yeah. That they are in the super League and that deal has been reworked in some way, shape or form. They've bought their way out, you know. Yeah. ACC could end before 2036, so. And maybe Notre Dame would have a big part of it. Who knows? Another one on Notre Dame before we hit a break. And then go to more of your questions. If Notre dame goes over 11 and a half and is undefeated 12 and oh, is car a lock for Heisman finalist or Hannah writes, is he going to sit for fourth quarter most games and not have the numbers?
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B
Here's the thing. If you built up a big enough lead in the first three quarters, you're blowing teams out. You're going to have the numbers. So if it goes 12. No, I think it's very, very likely that Carr is a Heisman finalist. At minimum. He's probably the favorite.
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C
I mentioned some of the successful teams of 2018 and 2020. And we remember, you know, that, that great run all the way to being the national runner up. They, they didn't have, they didn't, they, they didn't have a prospect at quarterback quite like C.J. carr. You know, twist My arm to tell me that Notre Dame's got a future NFL quarterback who's playing well and he won't be a Heisman. Like, we talk about the Heisman electorate, like the Heisman electorate will gladly get behind a Notre Dame quarterback with an NFL future. So. So, yes, Hannah, if. If I think that. And. And, you know, Heisman finalist is not really something that you predict because it's so loose. But I. To answer your question, yeah, I. C.J. carr, as a Heisman finalist, if Notre Dame goes 12. 0. Those things absolutely feel like they are in lockstep right now. All right, and then one more on the Notre Dame side of this, and
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B
this is actually these guys.
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C
You'll be happy. It's Notre Dame adjacent. Why can't Yukon get the same playoff rule that Notre Dame gets? If the Huskies are in the top 12, let them in. And you know what? I. I can't push back on that one.
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B
I am not in a position this week to push back on UConn. I have to be very respectful of UConn and their athletic department. They're very nice people. Their coaches are all normal, insane. They are not out of their minds in any sort of way. Wonderful, wonderful people. And I agree. Uconn should get the same treatment. Fact. Uconn should get preferential treatment. Compared to Notre Dame, uconn is a fine institution.
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C
If UConn is in the top 12, let him in. Except the College Football Playoff is an invitational and entertainment product, and I don't know if we're moving the needle like that.
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B
I mean, like, if you put UConn in the playoff, Jason Candle is the coach there now. They're going to win it. They're going to be underdogs in every
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C
game because they won't be a favorite.
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B
Yeah. They will not be favored against anybody in the field like you. Oh, man. Don't. Don't let UConn get in the playoff. Don't let them in. Jason Candle is going to rip you a new one.
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C
Jason Candle as a dog to a bunch of power conference teams.
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B
Whoo.
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C
Don't let Yukon in. Yeah. So we appreciate that it is. The people will be clamoring should UConn end up 9 0, you know, get deep into the season. Now we're gonna start asking questions. Why can't they have the same rules as Notre Dame? Unfortunately, they did not get the same win total treatment. Their win total is not available. So we do not have an if Vegas is right that we can. That we can add right here. All right, Coming up on the other side, we take a look at your questions. Plus, speaking of the College Football Playoff, we've got some new additions and some competition for the Mount Rushmore of College Football Playoff selection committees and more.
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B
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C
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C
back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Great point. Mendoza sat a lot of fourth quarters. Didn't hurt his Heisman Trophy chances.
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B
But nobody realized because the backup was Nate Mendoza too.
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C
No, they just swapped him out and everything was all fine. Let's start with the tailgate. This one is a little bit, a little bit more of on the light hearted. Can we get an oral history recap on the Arkansas attendance verse hunting season situation?
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B
It was a mailbag, right? Wasn't it somebody who left like a, I thought it was like a five star review.
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C
Oh, it was from a big old bag of mail that was concerned about the home atmosphere because of the hunting calendar.
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B
Correct. I believe that was, that was probably like what, four years ago?
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C
Yeah, I was definitely at my old house. I, yeah, I remember sitting in my mind being blown by the realities of it. So I guess like to the quick answer is that it started organically from the tailgate, that we have the absolute best listeners, viewers, friends, fans. Like the tailgate is awesome and they bring these things to us. And just like a lot of things in college football, we celebrate them. We celebrate the fact that there is someone who has to make a very tough decision between opening day of a new hunting season and going to that noon game against Mississippi State.
- [22:47]
B
I mean, I had, I had a fantasy draft last Wednesday. All right, for my baseball league. Okay. But it was also the first day of the year where my, my club was open and allowing Walkers. I had to auto draft my fantasy baseball team. These are just the decisions you have to make when something comes along. You have, you lived your life and you have to make hard, difficult choices. And because of that, I got to golf last Wednesday. But I also had Shane Smith in my starting lineup this week as a pitcher, and he gave up like 55 runs in six total innings and completely tanked my team for the week. But that's just the kind of sacrifice I'm willing to make. So, yeah, it's, we can all relate to it.
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C
Yeah, there's, there's different firearms that have their seasons open during college football season. I think we've got a bow crossover as well. You know this. It is something that is super significant. And yet to, to your point, I think it was about four years ago, about 20, 22, when, when we started being tuned into it. And since then, as I'm sure the questioner understands, I mean, I basically, I might as well have it printed on my wall, the Arkansas hunting calendar. You know, just to make sure that I'm ready, ready, locked, loaded, ready to go. Just like those hunters in Arkansas.
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B
You have to adjust the home field advantage. They're going to get those games. A lot of empty seats.
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C
A lot of empty seats. Especially when you've got that opportunity. So, yes, we appreciate that. There is, there is a lot to get into there. All right, we. You asked. We asked, you answered. Let's head on down to the mailroom. All right, this one comes from the big old bag of mail where Apple username crying Riley10 says, Do you think, do you think we are on a clear path to, to a Big Ten team getting punished for playing only nine power four games this season? With other conferences requiring not only the nine conference games but an extra 10th game against a power conference team, it seems bound to bite the Big Ten in the butt. Looking at you, Indiana, Penn State, Washington or usc, it's an interesting thought that I hadn't considered until I read is,
- [25:22]
B
and I think there's reason to wonder about it compared to other schools playing 10. But like, the difference is if you look at their schedules, okay, Indiana is only playing nine Power Four teams, right? They're also playing Ohio State, Michigan, USC. You know, like they're, there's. If they're 11 and 1, 12 and oh, 10 and 2, their SOS is still going to be pretty damn good. You look at usc, they don't have Notre Dame on the schedule anymore, but they do have Oregon. They have Penn State, they have Ohio State, they have Indiana. That 10th Power 4 game won't make much of a difference to their SOS because again, it's probably going to be against, I don't know, Wake Forest, you know what I'm saying? Like most of these schools, they're not really scheduling up for these games. Penn State's playing usc, Michigan, that could hurt them because I mean they've got Washington and they've got others, but there's no real outside of the Michigan game in usc maybe there's no real needle mover. So maybe I think it could affect Penn State this year. Washington, they've got Oregon, they've got Penn State, they've got usc. So I don't think it would affect those three. Penn State, of the four that he listed is the one that I think think could be left in the cold because of it, because of a similar situation when they're comparing resumes. But I just don't know if it's going to have a huge impact. Like I do think with the SEC and other leagues adding those games, it's not about strength of schedule. It's not about getting into the playoff and hoping they're at large case, which is maybe how they, they pitch it. But the fact of the matter is the reason Greg sankey wanted a 9th SEC game was for money for the television networks because ESPN wanted them. Like that's what it is. The networks want these games because they'll do better ratings than playing it, you know, G5 or G6. So I mean, yeah, I don't think SOS is really going to change because of these teams adding like SEC schools already had the most, the highest ranked SOS on an annual basis. Adding a 9th or 10th P4 game doesn't change anything for them.
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C
You, I think that you are so if you're Josh Whitman, then obviously you're in incredible shape. You know, you're running like six miles a day. You know, you're just, just looking outstanding. Would you be trying to shore up your own future schedules to have that power conference non con Because I think, I think what this gets to if and again to our earlier segment, who knows what college football looks like in the future. So that's always hanging over everything. But you are in a massive 18 team Big Ten almost rolling the dice on what your conference draw is going to be because there are going to be conference draws that get you the kinds of wins, kinds of games that can help you with that college football playoff argument. Because like you have said before, the Reality of a strength of schedule rating like the silly little number is very small between all these different numbers. But the conversation, the debate. As long as the selection committee is deciding the College Football Playoff, you could have a Penn State situation where on one hand the fans like hell yeah, we got a bunch of wins for year one of Matt Campbell. But on the other hand the Big Ten has not given you a lot of opportunities to to build up an at large case. If you were an athletic director, do you try to make sure that one of your three games is against a power conference team so you at least have that should you get a easier draw that doesn't have any quality as many quality games from the league office?
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B
I don't know. I mean unless there's a rule requiring it until the playoff shows that they're not until they start leaving you out because of it, I don't see why you have to.
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C
Could you argue that Notre Dame got left out because of it?
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B
No, Notre Dame got left out because they lost to the team they were being compared to. True. But it they Notre Dame played 10 Power 4 opponents last year. It's just the two that they lost to were Texas A and M and
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C
they were both in there. You can't jump ahead.
- [29:43]
B
Had they beaten them and then maybe lost to somebody they shouldn't have, they'd have been in over them because like you can say, well then they would have lost to a bad team. Who did Miami lose to wasn't a good team. So I think so much gets made about strength of schedule during the season because we've got to watch that stupid show on Tuesday and we act like again you already strength to schedule. The difference between these teams, like the difference between the 10th strength of schedule and the 30th is nothing, right? It's nothing. It's like a half a win maybe. Whereas maybe when you once you get to the top five, okay then there's some separation. But for the most part they're all the same. Everybody's playing the same schedule for the most part. So I think we spend way too much time simply because all we see is where it's ranked. We don't see the number. And I think if people, if they actually released the metric that showed you the strength of schedule, people would quickly realize, oh, there's absolutely nothing to this.
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C
Stay on that same Note, Jeffrey Shaw, 9:38am Eastern Time Got in the tailgate. We appreciate you, Jeffrey. When will we get the first sound bite of Signetti telling us Indiana's non conference schedule Is actually hard. And all of us questioning it are idiots. I'm saying over under May 1st.
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B
Hey, listen, how many games did North Texas win last year?
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C
Oh, great.
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B
Call that team. That team went 12 and 2, folks. You want to say that's an easy game. Yeah, come on. Come on.
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C
That's an 11 win team. I know they don't have their coach anymore, but they're still got a lot of, a lot of history of being really successful.
- [31:25]
B
He wouldn't bring up the fact that they don't have a coach anymore. He would just say, yeah, he would
- [31:29]
C
just mention, he's like, this is a team that was competing for championships.
- [31:33]
B
They were in the playoff race last year. What are you talking about?
- [31:37]
C
I, I will go over Jeffrey. I, I think that he's got enough on his plate right now discussing defending Josh Hoover's honor and cooking Nick Marsh for gold cleats, you know, and also sending, I guess, strays at Jonathan Smith. Did we talk about that here?
- [31:54]
B
Yeah.
- [31:54]
C
Okay, good. Just making sure.
- [31:57]
B
Yeah, I would say getting his ass chewed out.
- [32:00]
C
Not, not used to getting his ass chewed out. Speaking of the College Football Playoff, we got news this week that College Football Playoff selection committee has a couple new members. So Chris Alt is cycling out, Jeff Long is cycling out, and David Saylor. Their terms have expired. So welcome to the College Football playoff selection committee. Dr. Brian Maggard, the AD at Louisiana, and Gus Malzahn and Jeff Tedford. So we are g, we are losing one coach, we are gaining two more. So I think our ball knower index is increasing with the overall committee. We're trading out a Jeff Long for a doctor. You know, I haven't researched yet what, what Brian Maggard's doctorate is in, but sports management. I, I, I think this is going to be an interesting wrinkle in the 2026 selection committee's pursuit of trying to top what was one of the, one of the best jobs. Excuse me, not best, one of the most incredible jobs. Like truly beyond belief. The definition of incredible. Like could not, could not be credible. You know, did not believe it. So do you. What do you think is the overall change over here from, from one to the other?
- [33:25]
B
Well, first of all, having a doctor in there, that means injuries will have a bigger impact on where they rank teams. So like, you better if your quarterback breaks his leg, you better not say a damn word about it until after the rankings come out. But that doctor, he might be able to diagnose it while watching in the committee room in Grapevine from the hotel conference room. I Mean, listen, Mount Rushmore committee last year, Chip, one of the greatest of all time. Those are some mighty big shoes that those three men have to fill. Are they capable? Do they have the gravitas, the integrity, the joie de vivre to step in there and do what has to be done? Can they make the decision to rank Notre Dame ahead of Miami all season long only to pull the whoopsie do Dunkaroo at the very last minute and swap them around? Do they have the balls, the chutzpah? I don't know. You never know until they're in there, Chip. We'll find out. I can't wait. Every Tuesday night, we'll talk about it.
- [34:27]
C
Floored. Floored. Oh, great, great call. Gus Malzahn is going to leave his visor at the door. You know, that's, you know, as everybody's got to leave their hat at the door. Fascinated to see where Dr. Brian Maggard ends up having to recuse himself. He is one of us. Not one of us like the Iron College basketball podcast, but he's one of us, Tom. He got his bachelor's degree in journalism from Kansas State University, so there's one God that could be ruled out. But then he got a PhD in educational and counseling psychology from the University of Missouri, so there's another one. And of course, now representing the University of Louisiana position that he has held since 2017. Certainly, certainly our friend Emory Hunt can let us in with, with more information here. But you know, this is, this is, this is going to be an interesting one to have a journalist and a PhD added to the selection committee. In addition, of course, to two coaches with, with quite a history in, in Jeff Tedford and Gus Malzan.
- [35:34]
B
So he's a big J journalist, but he's also a doctor. So is he the new Dr. J. Whoa.
- [35:44]
C
Your words. Your words, not mine. I'm excited to see, excited to see what ends up happening here with this new College Football Playoff selection committee. I did. All right, so we did his April 2nd. Why not? We did hear borderline conspiracy theory that I would believe that the coaches held a heavy voice in that room last year. Yeah, okay, I believe that.
- [36:15]
B
I believe it, too.
- [36:16]
C
Okay, that'll. It'll be very interesting to see then. Congratulations, college football. Like, if you, if you're sitting there and you're number seven in the country, you're in the hands of Gus Malzahn. Now get ready to ride the roller coaster, baby.
- [36:32]
B
You better be running like. Do you see that putt, putt offense they run? That's the most difficult offense in the world to stop. We gotta put them in.
- [36:40]
C
What would Kyle points out he's a Big J, but he didn't go to Missouri for journalism. Got the journalism from Kansas state. That's why Ph.D. from Missouri.
- [36:54]
B
That's why he gets the Big J because he didn't go to Missou to get that degree.
- [36:59]
C
There you go. So yeah, College Football Playoff news coming down the line. Since we since we have been more than any other podcast trying to bring you the deepest and most thoughtful analysis on the selection process, we figured we'd bring that news to your attention as well. Coming up on the other side, what kind of odds would you give each conference and in the national title race? That was a question that came in for the mailbag. We'll answer it and more next. So good, so good, so good.
- [37:31]
D
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B
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D
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- [38:31]
C
back here on the COVID 3 podcast, we always tell you there are lots of ways to be able to to jump in on a mailbag question. This one came from Twitter from John. My buddies and I were talking what would the odds be if you could get on a conference winning the national championship? My predictions are SEC +150, Big 10 +175 ACC +950, Big 12 +1250.
- [39:06]
B
Big 12 +1250.
- [39:09]
C
That would. Those were his predictions. How would you slot that up?
- [39:15]
B
I mean, let me, let me ask you this question, Chip. Since the College Football Playoff was created and we went from more than two teams in the BCS, how many titles is a Big 12 team won?
- [39:28]
C
0, 1250.
- [39:31]
B
Those are generous odds. I mean, I would say. I'm not. Yeah, I would say close to like 110 to 150 plus side for both the Big Ten and the SEC. Then whatever Miami's title odds are for the ACC.
- [39:50]
C
Basically that.
- [39:51]
B
And that's it. If we're being like, if we're offering odds, sure, I will offer you Big 12 at whatever number you want to take, but as far as, like, the reality of the situation, I. Do you think a Big 12 team can win the national title this year?
- [40:05]
C
No, not this year. In this format. I mean, it's. It'd be Texas Tech sides.
- [40:13]
B
Yeah. And this is gonna.
- [40:15]
C
I mean, this is Texas Tech sides to win are 16 to 1.
- [40:19]
B
Yeah.
- [40:19]
C
Plus 1600.
- [40:21]
B
So what's that one divided by 17? Like, that's
- [40:26]
C
Miami's odds to win the national 5.9 chance. Miami's odds to win the national championship are plus 130013 to 1. So, yeah, so maybe you make those a little bit shorter on the off chance that you get a frisky SMU or something.
- [40:42]
B
Maybe. But maybe again, there are a lot of teams I could see making the playoff. There are always only going to be a few I could see winning it, and I just don't think Texas Tech is at that point yet. Yeah, that's especially considering what they lost. They lose a couple big. Like, their entire defensive line is mostly gone. Their star middle linebacker is gone.
- [41:04]
C
Yeah.
- [41:05]
B
The defense is what made that team last year.
- [41:08]
C
David Bailey, Lee Hunter, Jacob Rodriguez. Yeah, I. I'm a little bit scarred by the last time I saw Texas Tech play football, and it was just they went against a really, really good team. But the thing about the College Football Playoff and winning the national championship in this format that enough people don't talk about is you're gonna have to win multiple games against really, really good teams. So.
- [41:39]
B
And we talked about it at the time, like, last year was a fantastic year for Texas Tech. Nothing to be. You should be optimistic about the future. But that playoff game also showed you the gap between where you are and where you need to be. Because what happened to that Oregon team the week after they absolutely demolished Texas Tech? They got smacked themselves. Like, it's a. It is hard to get to that point. And Indiana is going to fool a lot of people into thinking they can do it real quick.
- [42:05]
C
Yep. Of course, you know, Notre Dame would occupy its own space in this probability pie, if you will. Their national title odds are at seven to one. So you would. They would be in there at. Well, with Yukon, obviously, but, like, they would be in there as sort of like an island unto themselves where you'd be running what, like plus 1 30, plus 160, plus 700. Then you jump into the Miami slash ACC world around 13 to 1, something like that.
- [42:34]
B
Yeah. I would go 40% Big 10, 40% SEC, 20%, the entire rest of the country. That might be maybe 42 and a half percent SEC and Big Ten, and then 15. Everybody else.
- [42:48]
C
Yeah. Well, that was. Hey, thank you, Tom. I'm so glad that we had somebody on the show today who could help with math, because when that question came in, I thought it was a great question and also one that I was academically unprepared to answer. This one came from the tailgate and is on a similar note. Love, when the puzzle comes together. If I told you the Big Ten gets a fourth straight different team to win the national title this year, is it basically Oregon or bust?
- [43:15]
B
Let's go back 365 days, Chip. If I told you the Big Ten gets a third straight different team to win the title this year, is it basically Penn State or bust?
- [43:23]
C
Wow. I would have told you Oregon was in the mix.
- [43:28]
B
Yeah, but remember where everybody was feeling about Penn State at this time a year ago? I know, say Oregon is the most likely, but who knows? It could be usc.
- [43:41]
C
I. So that was the first one that came to mind for me. If you're gonna reach for a second banana, I'll take Jaden Maeva and, you know, USC putting it all together, but USC's another team. How about this? Just so I can stay consistent. USC makes the playoff. It's a great freaking season.
- [44:01]
B
Yeah.
- [44:01]
C
Look at what Lincoln Riley has done. I don't trust USC to win the national championship in the College Football Playoff, but they.
- [44:08]
B
They could change our mind as the season goes. Like, if my Abbott turns into, like, a Heisman guy and that defense takes a step forward, again, my mind can be changed about them. But right now, I agree with you.
- [44:19]
C
Yeah. Yeah. Again, I just. I don't. I don't want to come off just as a, you know, the. The Big 12 hater corner, but USC is the same as Texas Tech. Well, Texas Tech's ahead of usc, obviously, because they've proven it. They've gotten to the College Football Playoff. But it is that same hook for me when we're talking about winning the national championship. I. I still think there's another step.
- [44:41]
B
You know, if you put USC in the Big 12 right now, who would be your favorite to win the league?
- [44:48]
C
I can actually tell you this. Wait. Based on, like, their sky. Oh, hold on.
- [44:53]
B
We don't know what their schedule would be. I'm just saying. Based on, like, your power ratings, who would be your favorite?
- [44:57]
C
I'm gonna tell you. Do it. I am. I. So I've got Texas Tech and then usc. Yeah, that'd be Texas Tech. Yeah. Got usc. No, not by a lot. I've got USC in more of a lighter shade of green than Texas Tech at this moment, but not too far off. I would still favor Texas Tech.
- [45:22]
B
Looking at. Never mind what I went to go look at the SP plus rankings, but they still have. When you click on the link on that website, it still goes to the 2025 rankings instead of the 2026 ones, which we all know are out. Bill released them. Update your links. Come on, Bill. Smack somebody upside the head.
- [45:42]
C
You've got to scroll a little bit further down. They had them on the home page, and it keeps getting pushed down. Apparently there's like, an NFL draft coming up that is getting a lot of traction.
- [45:53]
B
I don't know why.
- [45:55]
C
Oh, look at this one. You know, Incubus. Certain shade of green. There's a little shout out.
- [46:01]
B
We're gonna stand around till 2012 A.D. yeah, let's go.
- [46:05]
C
All right. Let's keep it in the big old bag of mail.
- [46:08]
B
That song's very deep. It's about being stuck behind somebody at a green light who doesn't go when the light changes color. It's a very deep song.
- [46:16]
C
And then I was talking about all these things, and then I went, is that the one that kind of, like, has that sort of speech pattern to it?
- [46:22]
B
Yeah.
- [46:22]
C
Okay. This. This one's a little. This one is great, actually, because it also ties into a mailbag question from me. The first part of it. This one is not for me. Alex K. Was reacting to another one of our questions. He said, love the pod, guys. Thanks for all you do. Wanted to touch on your Arvel versus Sunny topic from today's Mailbag. I think y' all are off base a little bit. Think you'd ask any Ohio State fan and nine out of ten would tell you that Sonny Stiles was, one, the better player and two, by far the better linebacker. Always respect your opinions. Just interesting that I think Bud was the first person I've heard to suggest Arvel was the better player. Many on the Ohio State beat feel like. Feel confident that Sonny Styles is a future hall of Famer. Can't say I disagree with that either. Arvel's feels like a bigger gamble, in my opinion. Cheers, guys.
- [47:19]
B
So some many on the Ohio State beat believe Sunny Styles will be a Hall of Fame NFL player Many funny thing about the Ohio State beach.
- [47:29]
C
No, no, no, don't make this about the Ohio State beat. Let's keep.
- [47:32]
B
I'm just saying a funny thing about the Ohio State beat is not all that different from the Ohio State fans. Listen, you, you could say that Sonny Styles had a better season than Arvel Reese did as far as being for Ohio State last year. And I won't push back on it. Sonny Styles had a great season. As far as an NFL prospect goes, Arvel Reese is a better NFL prospect than Sonny Styles. He plays or has the potential to play a much more valuable position than Sonny Styles does.
- [48:06]
C
Which leads me to my next question. You've recently Posted Mock Draft 4.0 we got 21 days, 3 weeks until the NFL draft. What are the, what are the move. What are the changes? Like what are some of the movements and guys you are going through your process? What are the things that you're paying attention to right now?
- [48:31]
B
I mean there's really nothing going on. Like that's like this draft class. We all know who the first pick is going to be. You know, my mock draft came out yesterday and this was written earlier this week and it was published yesterday morning. And in it I had the Rams taking Jordan Tyson out of Arizona State. And one of the things I wrote in the blurb was, and with all the stuff you're hearing about Puka Nakua off the field these days, they should probably, they're probably going to want to add depth to that room. And then four hours later they released that statement that Puk is going to rehab. So I want to be clear, I didn't know about that ahead of time. I was just reading the tea leaves of what that man was doing this off season off the field where, you know, I felt like maybe he was going to end up flipping a car at some point on an island in Florida. But like just overall it's, it's an odd draft because I don't know how many teams who are picking early in the first round even want to be there. Like, I think the jets are going to stick at number two because it's the second year their coach they want, they want to, you know, they're kind of getting sick of waiting around and they've got two first round picks. They feel like they have a chance to maybe turn things around there quickly. But The Cardinals at 3, I don't think they want to be there at all. I think they would love if somebody decided they wanted to trade up so that way the Cardinals could get an extra pick in next year's draft. And if they don't end up getting the first pick in the draft, they could pull those picks together and maybe make the move up to number one. And I think that's what a lot of teams ideally would like to do. I just don't know how many teams are interested in trading up because Mendoza is going to go first. Then I still think no matter what, Arvell Reese will go second to the jets. And then it's really what your personal preference is as far as the prospects because I don't think this is a great draft class overall for like no doubt guys. I think there could be guys who end up very good who will develop and be great players, but I don't think there's anybody that we know will be a great player and that tends to lead teams to be a little bit more. We'd rather stockpile picks and take seven swings instead of five and hopefully one of them hits. So I don't know, there's not really a whole lot of juice about this draft and I think that's one of the reasons we saw last week again calling out our, our dear friends and listeners. But like Dan Orlovsky going on with the Ty Simpson stuff. I don't think Dan's making up that he thinks Ty Simpson is better than Mendoza at all. I think he genuinely believes it. But the way it's being treated in the echo chamber at ESPN I think is a very direct response to the fact there's nothing to talk about with this draft. So we'll see.
- [51:13]
C
I feel like the content, the content market really needs the jets to trade up to draft Ty Simpson way too high, make a smart pick at 2 and then trade back up and make a maybe reckless pick somewhere. And I don't know what the position would be if you've looked at any mock trades or what that could look like.
- [51:35]
B
They are setting and I wrote this in my mock draft too. They're setting Ty up to be the shador this year.
- [51:40]
C
Golly. So then he's not going to get drafted and then we're going to freak out about the Ty Simpson slide. Yeah.
- [51:46]
B
And I wrote, I said in my, I think I said, listen, Ty, if you get that green room invite, turn it down because they're not inviting you there for you. They're inviting you there for them. They want that way every time you aren't picked, they can just show you sitting there and be like, oh well, shouldn't he have gone by now? And it's still that way they can argue. Because I think that. And some people will tell you every NFL draft is boring. And I would certainly understand the reasons behind thinking that. But I feel like this is going to be a very boring draft.
- [52:14]
C
But there are so many general managers who would probably love a boring draft where they just get to pick whoever's on their board when it comes, when they're, when it's their turn to phone in the call the pick, you know.
- [52:26]
B
And it also will not surprise me if the actual first round, as far as the players that are chosen, looks nothing like the mocks that you're saying, because I don't. Again, I think that it's kind of like strength of schedule. I think all these players are going to be depending on how teams have graded them. There's going to be some guys that you haven't seen in a first round mock the entire offseason who end up going in the first round. And then the reaction will be like, what are these idiots thinking? But the reality will be, yeah, okay, that makes sense.
- [52:53]
C
I Or when we're gathering together here on the COVID 3 podcast on the Friday after the first round to recap what we just saw, it does maybe end up being a. Yeah, they're good. You know, it. Just because there's so much, there's so much consistency in the mock draft community, I think that when we start to see those, those players who might not necessarily have their names listed, I could imagine college football fans are not going to be freaking out with as much of a who is that guy?
- [53:26]
B
Type situation I'm looking at right now. Like, if UCF's Malachi Lawrence Edge rusher, like, if he goes in the first round and gets chosen ahead of Akeem Mezador, somebody's going to be like, what the hell are they thinking? But the reality is, oh, okay.
- [53:44]
C
Oh, it's just like my read versus your read.
- [53:46]
B
My scout on this one, like, maybe because he's not 25, they'd rather go after. Somebody was like, I think Akeem Mezendor is going to be a good player in the NFL, but I think he already is who he is. And you'll see some teams who want to who are more like, if you're in a rebuilding spot, you're probably going to prefer somebody who's not tapped out. You're going to prefer somebody with a high ceiling because you're looking for a lottery ticket. So it's, it'll be a strange draft, I think.
- [54:10]
C
Two surgeries for Macedor, I believe. So it was one shoulder. Don't. I mean, I'm, I'm guessing here. I know there was one. I think it was shoulder and I can't remember if there was another one too because there's some, some medical allowed him to be able to push that thing deep into, deep into his college career or another.
- [54:31]
B
I had him in my mock our Mason Thomas, very clearly a pass rusher, not a guy you want as a run defender. Didn't really show much of an ability to do it at Oklahoma. He's not, he's not huge as far as what you're looking for size wise, but he has an ability to get after the quarterback. You could see him go a lot earlier than expected.
- [54:50]
C
We will, as the April starts to get closer to the draft, we will bring you more sort of our the way we see the draft, the way we're reacting to it. We will be giving you some, some previews going in. But then as I just mentioned, the Friday after the first round, we'll just do a little bit we did last year. I mean, not a, not a huge rundown very much just a reaction to what we just saw. We invite you to come and hang out. It's almost like a live NFL draft mailbag as we look ahead to rounds two and three on Friday night. React to that. That'll be coming up a little bit later in the month. Programming note while we're talking about it Monday, Happy Easter Monday to all who celebrate. The COVID 3 podcast will will be taking some time as well. We will be back with you on Wednesday to be able to get you locked and loaded for some of the spring football that's coming up. Tommy yes.
- [55:45]
B
So what you're saying is we're off on Easter Monday, but we'll rise again a few days later.
- [55:49]
C
There you go. How about them, Tom? Any. Any list is any final words for your your beloved Illini? Any final thoughts you want to throw? On the record, you were nice to UConn. Let the record show you sent good vibes their way in advance of what should be a colossal clash at 6:09 Eastern Time in Indianapolis on Saturday night.
- [56:11]
B
I just, I think that Danny Hurley is a very calm, cool, collected, well adjusted human being.
- [56:19]
C
I saw him working on the bird feeder. Okay. I saw him, you know, doing house chores this week.
- [56:25]
B
He's an excellent basketball coach. He's got everything in order. He's got great life balance and I think that will help him after his team gets beat by a billion freaking points on Saturday in Indianapolis. I hope you enjoyed that 300 run because we're going to double it.
- [56:40]
C
Oh. Let's go. All right. We will be back on Wednesday, so come and hang out YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at. Tom Fradel. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Tom, thank you very much.
- [56:57]
B
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