← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
National Championship LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for Indiana vs. Miami
01:04:32
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- [00:00]
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- [02:05]
Podcast Intro Announcer
Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing Day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the the COVID 3.
- [02:25]
Chip Patterson
Podcast and welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Canel. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe Smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID 3 tailgate, where they're already starting to drop their best bets. That's right. One last time for the COVID 3 tailgate. One last time for us to unroll our best bets for the college football season. Because we've got Miami, we've got Indiana. It is the College Football Playoff national championship. This is a Thursday, so coming up in just a little bit, we will be giving you our locks, our best bets for the College Football Playoff national championship. Before we get into the locks, a headline that broke shortly after we were done yesterday. That certainly changes the outlook of next year's national championship. Yes, Dante Moore announced that he will be returning to Oregon for the 2026 season. We had discussed Dante Moore's opportunity to be the number two quarterback and maybe the number two overall pick and the NFL draft. That certainly would come with a great financial bonus, though, because we are talking about Oregon. I'm assuming he's not coming back to play for free. Dante Moore, I think, is going to give Oregon's offense a very high ceiling in terms of expectations. Dk, you've already, you've already doubled down on an old day trading Danny segment. You put it out there on Twitter. Tommy Tran shouted it out on HQ Spotlight. I mean, is this. Can we go ahead and buy our tickets for Vegas?
- [04:14]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, just book them. Vegas. Now, you can avoid all the bidding wars that take place because you know Vegas is going to be a hot ticket, whoever makes it there. But if you're Texas and Oregon, I mean, Oregon fans had trouble traveling to the Orange bowl this past year. Vegas is right down the road. I mean, it's just an easy flight. So just get your tickets now. Don't even worry about it. And you remember the day trading Danny. I said, as long as Dante Moore and Arch Manning come back to school, that was like the contingent. So I am believer in these ones. Although I did predict Kate Clubnik Drew Aller in the championship game last year did not work out so well. But I feel way better about these quarterbacks than I do those. So I was at the office yesterday and I was in my, you know, I was at the studio, I was in my office and all of a sudden I heard like a cheer and I was like, oh, geez, there must be a soccer game. Like, that's the only thing I know that's being played at 2 o' clock in the afternoon.
- [05:03]
Chip Patterson
We love soccer.
- [05:05]
Danny Cannell
Love soccer. Yes, we love soccer. But occasionally you'll hear some noise and I heard, like, some cheering, and I'm like, what? What just happened? You know? And they're like, he's coming back. And I'm like, who? And they're like, dante Moore just said he's coming back. I mean, there was a pretty loud reaction. And then of course, they're scrambling to get the breaking news. I do think this is huge. I think this is great news for Oregon. I think it's great news for college football. I think it's great news for Dante Moore because I think he needs another year of development as a quarterback that gets through his progressions, that needs to take the next step against the better teams that he's going to face. So I think there is some risk in it because there's no guarantee you're going to be the number two quarterback next year. But I would expect him to come back and play at a really high level and have some good talent around him. And for Oregon, once again to be in the title conversation, the bold prediction of the national championship game, I think is bold for a reason. But I would expect them to once again contend for a Big Ten championship.
- [06:03]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, on the Oregon piece. Yeah, like, having the guy who was very much odds on to be the number two quarterback taking in the draft come back to school is incredible for you.
- [06:13]
Chip Patterson
Oh, yeah, There's a big. Hell yeah.
- [06:15]
Tom Fernelli
He's so young.
- [06:18]
Chip Patterson
This is awesome. Nothing but positive. On the Duck side, there's a real.
- [06:21]
Tom Fernelli
Chance that he, like, levels up more, you know, and is able to really do something there. I. I wanted to take us back a little bit to the start of this year where we had so much uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position because we had so many of these Covid guys finally leaving the sport. Right. Like, we didn't know who was going to be good at quarterback this year. Think about all the quarterbacks we have coming back. Like, this is really going to be, I think, potentially a fantastic quarterback here. I mean, you already mentioned Arch Dante, like Rocco Beck's back. I'm just running down this list here. Avery Johnson's back. Lenora Sellers is back. You know, some guys who had up and down years still have a lot of potential. Like, you know, Cal kept Jaron Kiev. Psychopotelle. Right. I'm just going. Soursby's still here. Grunkmeyer is still here. Not that he's in that cl like necessarily that class. Marcel Reed is still here.
- [07:14]
Danny Cannell
Did you say Mensah?
- [07:16]
Bud Elliott
Jake Garcia is still here.
- [07:18]
Tom Fernelli
Darian Dari Mensa, CJ Bailey is still back. I mean Haynes King's gone, but like Josh Hoover is back, Kevin Jennings is back, Gunner Stockton's back, Demond Williams, we already mentioned Dante, C.J. carr is back, Julian Saint, like there's so many, I feel like somewhere between really competent to extremely high level quarterbacks coming back for 26. This is going to be a fun year.
- [07:44]
Danny Cannell
Where, don't you think the difference, although there's still, there's still a risk like last year. And I was never a believer that Cade Klubnick was a first round draft pick, but he was in every early mock draft. And then what? We also had DJ Lagway. He was, he wasn't eligible, but it was Lenore Sellers. You know, there was a lot of guys that had played a little bit. I think there are some similarities where it seems like every year we're like, wait, do you see next year's quarterback class? Wait till you see next year's is going to be incredible. And there's always the risk that you don't play as well. And maybe it's Dante Moore, like maybe he's the guy. I don't, I think I feel pretty good about him. But it's just, it's. There's no certainty with who's going to be great, you know?
- [08:26]
Tom Fernelli
Agreed. I think it's just volume, shooting. Like I'm certain that we're gonna have a lot of greatness. I don't know from whom that greatness is actually going to come.
- [08:33]
Danny Cannell
Right.
- [08:33]
Tom Fernelli
But when you have this many names who have already flashed like at least competency, I think the odds are great that a couple of these guys are really going to level up.
- [08:43]
Bud Elliott
I, I was very surprised by the decision. Typically don't see guys projected to go that high come back to school, but nil changes that equation a bit because even if you risk losing out on maybe a few million from your signing bonus, you're still going to get a few million just to come back to play. So it's not like he's going to be broke at the end of the year. But I also think it's, you know, for a 20 year old kid, it's a sign of maturity in that he realizes there are parts of his game that he feel like he wants to work on before he goes and plays in the NFL. And this is the same kid who went to Oregon knowing full well that he would be sitting a year before he got the starting job. And we see a lot of these kids who are just moving because they want to play right away. Dante Moore seems to be a kid who is focused on the long term projection for Dante Moore more than he is on the instant gratification of playing right now. So I think that's interesting. I think it's very good for Oregon. I also think the interesting part of the situation is Dylan Raiola who is maybe taking a very similar approach that Dante Moore did. Now, who knows, you know, Miami still doesn't have a quarterback. We'll see what happens. But like you look at Raiola, he accepted the Oregon spot saying at the time, either to play next year, to sit behind Dante Moore if he comes back. Well, now we know Dante Moore is coming back. So maybe Dylan is approaching this as suffered a pretty serious leg injury. I don't know how healthy I will be at the start of next season. Maybe I take a year off. Maybe I learned because I mean Dylan Rayola has a lot of talent, but he's also got a lot to learn. So maybe that's a good sign for him going forward too because Oregon's been pretty damn good at getting these guys ready for the NFL.
- [10:15]
Chip Patterson
I am going to be bearish on the idea that Dante Moore and the quarterback class is awesome just because I'm old enough to remember what Drew Allercade, Klubnick, Arch Manning, I mean, just it going into this year. I even wrote a story for CBSSports.com the SEC would return to greatness because of how great the quarterback play is going to be in the sec. And the SEC ain't playing for the national championship. And the SEC was not exactly overwhelming with its greatness at the quarterback position. And Garrett Nussmeier was supposed to be another piece of that. And so I'm just, I'm going to be a little bit cautious in going all in on Dante Moore as sort of like waving the flag for quarterbacks in general across college football. I am not going to be sheepish about Dante Moore's return, meaning a massive upgrade in what I think Oregon can do. Because where I set the ceiling for Oregon with Dylan Raiola and where I set the ceiling for Oregon with Dante Moore is dramatically different. And the other piece of this for Oregon, so Drew Meringer. What college football fan knows Drew Meringer's name, right? That's the new offensive coordinator at Oregon. Internal promotion after Will Stein left for Kentucky. If, if Dante Moore thought that that was a bad move, he would not be back in Eugene. So if I'm an Oregon fan and I'm thinking about what is this going to look like we lost Kenny Dillingham. Then they went and got Will Stein. Will Stein came in and he was an outside hire, had a good track record. If I'm just a run of the mill, you know, fan, I might get a little nervous that we're just getting much like the faults of other head coaches. If you just keep doing internal promotion. Internal promotion. Are you bringing any new ideas to the table? If Dante Moore didn't have confidence that Drew Meringer wasn't going to help him be able to develop and help the offense continue to be successful, he would not be coming back to Oregon. So I think on two levels, Number one, I think Dante is a big upgrade over Dylan. And then number two, I think it's a good sign for at least the belief inside that locker room and who they've got calling place next year because Will Stein's a stud. I mean, that's, that's how you end up getting the Kentucky job. And so I'm not going to expect much drop off. And like you said, bud, there's a chance he even levels up. But we'll see. Even this level, what he did in 2025 should have Oregon again competing for the Big Ten title, competing for the national championship. So fired up for the Ducks side of this for sure. Very curious. What happens? Do you all think Dylan is going to sit just State, Eugene and City Year?
- [12:46]
Tom Fernelli
I kind of think he might.
- [12:48]
Chip Patterson
I think he might.
- [12:51]
Danny Cannell
What if, I mean, Miami sitting there kind of getting desperate for a quarterback. What if his plan was to sit and Miami's not tampering? They would never do that. No one tampers no one.
- [13:04]
Bud Elliott
They would also never go after a player who signed to stay somewhere.
- [13:08]
Danny Cannell
Right. Which does look like they're going to have to do. But what if they call his people and they're like, hey, we've got a starting job with an incredible team coming off a national championship run, whether it's win it all or not. Wouldn't you love to come down here? We can make it work. I mean, I think that could be intriguing. Like, I know your mindset might have been, let me go sit and wait. And maybe that, and maybe he was. But that's got to be intriguing to at least listen to that. And I don't even know the contractual details, like if he's allowed or if Miami can pay a buyout. I don't, I don't know how any of that works, but I would think that Miami would kick the tires on it for sure.
- [13:43]
Chip Patterson
Take me back here. Grabbing this off the Top of my head was Dallas Wilson committed to Oregon before Florida flipped him?
- [13:52]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [13:53]
Chip Patterson
Had he signed paperwork?
- [13:55]
Danny Cannell
See, that's the thing. We don't know either is. Is Don or is Dylan Raiola committed or is he signed?
- [14:00]
Chip Patterson
You know, hey, 12 minutes is too early to get reckless here. But my thought is Oregon is a little bit more of the type and again, broad strokes here. A little bit more of the type to be like, okay, good luck and not the we're going to come sue your ass. You know, like we're going to come collect. I, I just think that also if they.
- [14:20]
Danny Cannell
Sorry to interrupt.
- [14:21]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, go ahead.
- [14:21]
Danny Cannell
I hate interrupt. My bad. If Oregon truly didn't know if Dante Moore was coming back, they might, they had to do something. So they. To your point, Chip, they might be like, hey, this might be best for you. Like, go ahead.
- [14:36]
Bud Elliott
We'll.
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Danny Cannell
We'll save that 3 million form whatever money it is. We'll go get a backup and good luck to you.
- [14:43]
Chip Patterson
Here at the University of Oregon, we're all about opportunities. And if anybody's gonna have opportunities, we're gonna let them go, you know.
- [14:51]
Bud Elliott
But that's. Miami's the wild card in all this. It's not just Raiola, it's. Until Miami has its cornerback, we don't really know what Miami's going to do.
- [15:00]
Chip Patterson
After Shout out to Cody Nagel, he dropped this one in the. In the college football work room, the four highest rated transfer quarterbacks left uncommitted are. And start the Chicago Bulls music. Ding, ding, ding, ding. Bryson Beaver, E.J. colson, Jaden Davis and Austin Novasad. That's it.
- [15:32]
Tom Fernelli
Not great.
- [15:33]
Bud Elliott
I don't think Miami's going after somebody currently in the portal. How many days you got left to join that one?
- [15:39]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, well, you have one more day to get one more day to file your paperwork and they have two business days to process it. So technically we sh. With the exception of guys playing in the national championship, they actually get like a tolling of the deadline. But like if you file Friday, like at 5:00', clock, you may. We may not know until like into business Tuesday.
- [16:05]
Bud Elliott
So the next 72 hours could be pretty interesting. He might just show up in there.
- [16:10]
Danny Cannell
I would be nervous too if I had a starting quarterback in college football that was pretty good that maybe was staying around. But Alberto, maybe I'm hoping he's about. I told you that a while ago.
- [16:22]
Bud Elliott
What if Malachi Tony's their quarterback next year? Maybe they've been getting them reps. Just that's why they're Working them in games.
- [16:29]
Danny Cannell
Let's run the Malley cat.
- [16:30]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, absolutely. One before we. One last note before we jump in to the locks. It would be. You might have noticed the College Football hall of Fame class has been announced. They'll be inducted later this year. It includes Mark Ingram, Damakong Sue Aaron Donald, Chris Peterson and Gary Patterson. Peter Warwick, Jordan Lynch.
- [16:54]
Tom Fernelli
There we go.
- [16:55]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Any, any. Any of these names stand out? Because I also have one question because I'm. I feel like I'm not educated enough, but anything about that class or that crew stand out in terms of something that gets you excited?
- [17:07]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, glad to see Peter work. Finally getting in there.
- [17:10]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [17:11]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, that guy was. He was so good, man. Like, before the knee injury, it was wild.
- [17:18]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. The. The 1999 Florida state title team was kind of berserk. I've been going back. One of my assignments for this week is to rank the Miami national championship teams. So I've been just basically pouring through a lot of ratings, results and data from, you know, the late 80s all the way through the early 2000s. And the 99 Florida State team was that like the offense and defense were both the best in the country. You know, Peter Work obviously being a huge part of that as well.
- [17:49]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, that was a run it back team. I do think if they have Chris Winkie, a quarterback, if he had not, you know, had the broken neck thing against Wake Forest, they're probably back to back.
- [18:03]
Chip Patterson
Instead of losing in 2000 to Oklahoma.
- [18:07]
Tom Fernelli
Well, no, I think they beat Tennessee the year prior.
- [18:09]
Chip Patterson
Oh, in 98. Yeah. Good call. In late May, we. The. The rules for the hall of Fame were adjusted. Right. Basically to open the door for Mike Leach to be included. Why Mike Leach in this class do we have to wait a year? Does anybody. Again, I'm admitting I don't. National Football Foundation. I know that you as an organization and every one of your members are huge fans of the COVID 3 podcast. Please feel free to reach out. Does. Does this mean that he. They changed the rule and he didn't get in? Do we have to wait a year? Does anyone understand how that works?
- [18:47]
Bud Elliott
I do not know.
- [18:48]
Chip Patterson
Okay.
- [18:49]
Tom Fernelli
I'm not sure.
- [18:50]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, because that's what I was looking for. I'm sorry.
- [18:53]
Tom Fernelli
It was uva. Broke his neck scans. Not. Not Wake Forest. I don't know why I said wake.
- [18:57]
Chip Patterson
If we're gonna make a big deal about changing the rules for Mike Leach and others. I was, you know, would have been. Would have been excited to see his name on this one.
- [19:07]
Bud Elliott
Maybe some of the voters are real sticklers for the old rules.
- [19:10]
Danny Cannell
That's true.
- [19:11]
Chip Patterson
That's true. All right, coming up on the other side, our very best bets for College Football Playoff, National Championship and more nukes.
- [19:24]
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- [19:55]
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- [20:28]
Chip Patterson
One game left in the 20252026 college football season. One last time for me to ask. Gentlemen, you all ready to lock it up?
- [20:37]
Bud Elliott
Yup. Let's do it. Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 49 and 1.
- [20:47]
Danny Cannell
Give me an over on this one as well. A little two for one Special.
- [20:52]
Tom Fernelli
I was a sicko last week. Y' all were watching good games. I was live betting the hell out of UL in Kentucky. My Blue Plate Special five star locks are coming.
- [21:01]
Chip Patterson
Five star Master lock. Lock it. I'm living and dying.
- [21:07]
Tom Fernelli
Every point, every couple.
- [21:10]
Chip Patterson
From the locking chair to your eyes and ears. A reminder that locks are sponsored all season long by Cash App. Making money moves should be easy. And that's why there's Cash App. It's fast, safe and honestly, way more personalized than other apps and out there. So since it's just one game, I think we're going to attack this. First discussing the spread, then discussing the total and then maybe any of the other different ways that we can attack this player. Prop market will be more populated by Monday. So among the other things that we'll be doing on Monday's 11am show, we'll be getting you set with any last minute props. I see Ryan in the tailgate has mentioned Mark Fletcher Rushing props. You know, over there at Sportsline, early edge, we talked about Mark Fletcher, longest run. Just kind of one of those fun. Because he's going to keep hitting that hole, right? All you need is for one of them to pop and you're going to likely end up getting that 15 and a half, 16 and a half, whatever it is at. Let's talk leans too. If it is a lock, then be sure to let the people know by indicating it. So let's start with the spread. Eight and a half. This thing opened six and a half, if I remember right, when the matchup was set, quickly jumped out to seven and a half, where it sat for about half a week or more. Up to eight and a half as we get into this week. Tom, how do you. Do you have a lock on these? Spread. Just a straight up game spread. And even if not, how. How are you looking at this from the wagering angle?
- [22:35]
Bud Elliott
You know what, Chip? I do have a lock on the spread. All right, Indiana minus eight and a half. How much more do they need to show you? They beat Alabama by 35. They would have beat Oregon by 40 if Oregon didn't score a touchdown with 20 seconds left in the game. Like they have showed up to this thing and they have beaten the hell out of everybody that they've played. And this is a season in which we talked about how there weren't any teams that were super separated from the rest of the pack. It certainly seems like Indiana is separated from the rest of the pack. I mean, I think Miami's been a tremendous story. I think it's been a tremendous run beating Texas A and M, Ohio State and then Ole Miss to get here. But I don't think they're as good as Indiana. I just think Indiana is the best team in the country. Indiana has probably been the best team in the country all year, whether we realized it or not. And I think that it's going to come to an end on Monday night where Indiana is the best team in the country and they win pretty comfortably. I don't think they're going to win by 40. I don't think they're going to win by 30. I do think they can win by 10.
- [23:40]
Chip Patterson
Anybody else locking up Hoosier spread or fighting it with a little Miami?
- [23:45]
Tom Fernelli
I. I think I'm going to fight it. Yeah.
- [23:47]
Chip Patterson
All right, let's do it. Hold on. Let's play.
- [23:49]
Bud Elliott
Fight. Fight. Fight. Fight. Fight.
- [23:54]
Tom Fernelli
I. I don't love it necessarily. I don't think it's something I would pile in a bunch of money on. I think it is a little bit inflated relative to where I have it. Right. Like I. I think there should be a solid seven here. So eight and a half. Obviously we got slim pickings. There's one game to pick.
- [24:13]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, the margins are very fine at this.
- [24:15]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I look. So if Mendoza plays as well as he has played the last two games, Miami is completely cooked because he's really playing like. Like a true. If you plucked a good NFL quarterback off an NFL roster and just. I mean he's made like what, one bad pass I think in like in the last two games, maybe two. And he has more touchdowns than incompletions in this tournament. Like it's insane. The ball placement, the anticipation, the identification of where to go where. Where to go with it. He doesn't really play favorites and they have three good receivers now as well. If he keeps playing this well then I'm going to lose this bet for sure. But I do think we also have to consider like the whole sample set of the season and he's been very good. He has not been like computer on, you know, God mode good throughout the entire year. There have been some defenses that at times have given him a little bit of problems and he's not been perfect in every game. I'm also interested to see if Miami can run the ball on them a little bit more to maybe not even beat them but to have some possessions that really drain the clock and keep this thing a little bit closer. Some of the Miami defensive injuries certainly do concern me. As we talked about in big game breakdown, we don't know the status of those guys as of yet. Right. Like when the injury reports do outwind.
- [25:41]
Bud Elliott
Saturday, three days or Saturday. Yeah.
- [25:44]
Danny Cannell
Okay.
- [25:44]
Tom Fernelli
So I mean obviously we're shooting this on a Thursday. I also think like the way that Oregon game played out with some of the unforced turnovers and some were certainly forced. Right. Like, like that was great scouting and anticipation by any AS defense to get that pick on the opening play. But like some of the way that thing snowballed I thought was.
- [26:08]
Chip Patterson
May have.
- [26:08]
Tom Fernelli
Contributed to this spread being inflated a little bit. So I'll go ahead and take the eight and a half again. I don't think you're stealing on the number. I think seven is, is pretty fair. And again if Mendoza keeps playing like this, it's a terrible bet.
- [26:23]
Chip Patterson
Chip, I'm not going to lock up spread but what's your lean on it.
- [26:30]
Danny Cannell
Bud? Let's take Tom out back.
- [26:32]
Chip Patterson
Go.
- [26:33]
Danny Cannell
Come on.
- [26:34]
Bud Elliott
The first time I whooped Your ass.
- [26:39]
Danny Cannell
The amount of adoration. And I get why for Indiana and what they've done has been off the charts. But historically speaking, when we start talking about teams as potentially the best in the College Football Playoff era before they actually win the game, it doesn't always bode well if they win it. They're absolutely in that conversation. But. And I get why they've blown out a couple opponents. They blew out one of the most overrated Alabama teams that shouldn't have even been in the College Football Playoff. Like, are we really going to look at that and say, oh, that makes them unbeatable? They beat an Oregon team that was decimated with injuries at running back, which is what they wanted to do. They did not have Noah Whittington in that game. For one or two plays. They're bringing over defenders to play running back. Like, it's how bad it was at that position. They gifted them 14 points, seven on the first play of the game. And then when the quarterback hits a freshman running back who's in there because he doesn't know the mesh points and how to stay away from the quarterback. I think this Miami team is as close on the defensive side of the ball to what they saw against Ohio State, and I think they're probably even a little bit nastier and they play with more violence. Fernando Mendoza is awesome. And if he has all day to throw, he will tear you apart. If even he gets hit some, he can still tear you apart. My biggest concern is probably the first half without Xavier Lucas. Until we get a feel for where these DBs are, they have to get pressure early. But I think Miami is built for this. I love Miami getting eight and a half points.
- [28:24]
Bud Elliott
You mentioned the injuries and it's fair points. But that's part of how this works now. When you play this many games, you have. It's a. It's a battle of attrition. Indiana's winning the battle of attrition. They're far healthier than the teams that they're playing. Miami is banged up going into this one. Miami's been banged up. We saw what they did to banged up teams in the first two games. Yep. Now they're playing another one fair.
- [28:49]
Danny Cannell
And I also think, like, if we're wrong, Bud and I are wrong. I almost feel like alt line Indiana is the way to go. Like, there's an aspect to me that says Miami either wins the game or they get run. Because Indiana does have the ability to take your will. They do not get conservative. They stay aggressive. And I think they did that to Alabama and they did that to Oregon, like, once. And I think Oregon was starting to feel sorry for themselves and like, oh, man, we've lost all these players. And if you get that from Miami, it could get ugly. But I do think Miami will have more success early. I think what I'm hoping for is similar to what you saw in the super bowl when Tom Brady played Patrick Mahomes. The Bucks were playing at home in Tampa. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were this dynasty that was a favorite in the game. But what did Patrick Mahomes look like in that game? He still almost made some throws, but he was running for his life the entire game. That's kind of what I'm expecting to happen if Miami's defensive front does what I think they can do.
- [29:53]
Chip Patterson
What about on the total? About 47 and a half is what we're looking at. Is anybody. Anybody going to make a play on that?
- [30:03]
Tom Fernelli
I like under 48 and a half, and I think if you like Miami, you need like under 48 under.
- [30:12]
Danny Cannell
I'll take the under. Lock it up. Give me under 47 and a half. Bud's trying to use some discipline. Discipline went out the window since I've been in last place here.
- [30:20]
Bud Elliott
48. Is there 48 and a half left?
- [30:22]
Tom Fernelli
I don't think one of the places that's not our sponsors, but is one of the three majors. Yes.
- [30:27]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, perfect. I love that for the exact reasons why I like Miami so much. I think their. Their philosophy, their mentality, their identity, again, I thought was totally wrong on this. I thought Oregon versus Indiana would be more like the Big Ten championship game. I really do think this one could be more like that game, more of a defensive struggle.
- [30:51]
Chip Patterson
Tom, do you have any play on the total?
- [30:53]
Bud Elliott
Not on the full game total, no.
- [30:55]
Chip Patterson
I've got to play on the first half total. Do you have a play on the first half total?
- [30:58]
Bud Elliott
No, I do not. I have a team total.
- [31:01]
Tom Fernelli
They're. They're close. In Indiana's close games, by the way, have all been like sub 51 points. Right. Iowa was. Was low scoring. Even the first game in Oregon had a defensive score and they just got to 50. Penn State was what, 51? Obviously. Ohio State 23 was the total. Alabama was 38. 3.
- [31:26]
Chip Patterson
And do you know what. Do you know what the halftime score was in that game? 17. Nothing. 17. That's six less than 26 and a half. Less than 23 and a half. We'll be going first half under 23 and a half on this one. I mean it. Do you know what do you know.
- [31:40]
Tom Fernelli
Plays well Chip with what? Yeah, you're about to say it.
- [31:43]
Bud Elliott
I'm sorry.
- [31:44]
Chip Patterson
Miami wants a 12 play 8 minute drive, but what they want is a touchdown. And the problem is that Indiana does a amazing job of bowing up and forcing field goal opportunities, of which I do think Miami early in the game will still be perfectly fine to settle for. So I think that we've got, we've got the potential of Miami's game plan along with Indiana's defensive red zone strength to sort of play up into before the game gets unscripted one way or the other. Right. I think at a neutral game state this is going to be a little bit lower score.
- [32:23]
Tom Fernelli
If I'm Indiana, I would tempo them.
- [32:26]
Chip Patterson
You would tempo Miami?
- [32:27]
Tom Fernelli
Yes, I would try to tempo pretty hard, especially in the first half just.
- [32:31]
Chip Patterson
To go ahead and get them tired early.
- [32:33]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, make those also like make the backup DBs communicate, you know, get. Get Bain's legs with a lot of reps on them. Yeah, I would tempo them.
- [32:46]
Chip Patterson
Any other. Oh you do you want to go out and do team totals now? Sure.
- [32:50]
Bud Elliott
Give me Indiana first half team total over 13 and a half. Oh.
- [32:56]
Chip Patterson
Nice. What a very simple. And I don't mean simple as in like not impressive but like what a very simple rooting interest. My two touchdowns.
- [33:07]
Bud Elliott
My thought process is Miami's defense is banged up and we know they won't have Xavier Lucas in the first half. So they could be down three corners going up against Indiana who we've seen now offensively when they have all three of their receivers, which they haven't had a whole lot of this year, pretty damn good. So it could be a situation and that's plays into why I don't. I took Indiana -8 and a half because if the Hoosiers do get off to a quick start in the first half and build a lead and get Miami out of where it wants to be, where it's handing it off and trying to control clock because they have to score and Carson Beck has to drop back to throw and he also has to start pushing the ball vertically down the field. I feel like that's when the Avalanche would be.
- [33:51]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Anybody else tackling a team total?
- [33:57]
Tom Fernelli
I mean I, I already already talked like, you know, Miami and under. So implicit in that is basically Indiana team total under under 28 and a half.
- [34:06]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [34:07]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [34:08]
Chip Patterson
Miami as I'm seeing it right now currently sitting at 18 and a half kind of dead number there.
- [34:13]
Tom Fernelli
I don't.
- [34:14]
Bud Elliott
And what because you're not locking that up, bud. Right.
- [34:19]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. I'll like up under 20 and a half. That's fine.
- [34:21]
Bud Elliott
All right, cool.
- [34:22]
Tom Fernelli
Look, I would say, let me ask you guys this because it's. We need a little length of the show. What odds would you give Indiana of winning the game if they go over on their team total?
- [34:36]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [34:36]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, I don't know if it's 100, but it's. I mean, yeah, 130. I think it's like an extreme likelihood. Yeah.
- [34:43]
Danny Cannell
Yes.
- [34:44]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [34:45]
Chip Patterson
No, if the, the, the Miami win to me is like 27, 24.
- [34:52]
Tom Fernelli
Or like 21, 17.
- [34:55]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, yeah, sure.
- [34:55]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [34:56]
Tom Fernelli
Right.
- [34:56]
Chip Patterson
But even 17 for Indiana feels really low considering the quarterback in the offense that we're talking about and just the clip that they've been performing at. I know that Iowa obviously held them down into the teens in that game, but just the, the, the rhythm that the Indiana offense is in, I think it's tough to imagine them being held under 20, but I could definitely see Miami win the game. It would just be a game that's decided in the twenties, in my opinion. Unless it's overtime.
- [35:25]
Tom Fernelli
I agree.
- [35:28]
Chip Patterson
Danny, do you have any other. I've got.
- [35:30]
Danny Cannell
I have some props. Are we allowed to take them?
- [35:32]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. 100. All right.
- [35:33]
Danny Cannell
I am going to take mark Fletcher over 69 and a half rushing yards. That's what I see. FanDuel.
- [35:39]
Bud Elliott
Oh.
- [35:41]
Chip Patterson
I mean, what? 133 last time out.
- [35:46]
Danny Cannell
I mean, it almost feels too good to be true, which is never the case. But I do think if I do like Miami, I do think they will be able to run the football I like in anything.
- [35:58]
Chip Patterson
Mark Fletcher is just. And like you could even throw them in and hit the sliders just to be able to get a little scratch offs, you know, a little, little lottery ticket out there.
- [36:07]
Danny Cannell
Yeah. Mark Fletcher's mom's miles driven to the game.
- [36:11]
Tom Fernelli
Over.
- [36:12]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [36:13]
Danny Cannell
Taking that from the area. I know, I know. But I'm gonna take the over. Good luck. She might just drive around the state.
- [36:22]
Bud Elliott
She might, she might drive to Maine and back. Just.
- [36:24]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [36:26]
Danny Cannell
Of driving out to the Cotton bowl and back.
- [36:29]
Bud Elliott
I have a Fletcher prop as well.
- [36:31]
Chip Patterson
All right.
- [36:32]
Bud Elliott
Chip kind of touched on it earlier. Give me the over 15 and a half for his longest run. I looked it up. He's got 16 rushes of 16 yards or more this season. Eight of them come in the three playoff games.
- [36:44]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [36:44]
Bud Elliott
So give me that.
- [36:47]
Tom Fernelli
Do we, do we have a longest rush for Shemar Brown?
- [36:51]
Bud Elliott
I did not find one.
- [36:52]
Chip Patterson
Whoa. No, I, I can't imagine that they're doing backup running back, longest rush yet.
- [36:59]
Tom Fernelli
I, I just go back to something the broadcast said and, and I think a lot of times like once the game goes live, these guys are, they're pretty open with what they think maybe the staffs shared with them. Right. And they said that Oregon really thought they could get the edge, like get, get to the edge on Indiana's defense with the run game. Now they kind of got game scripted out of that pretty fast. But you did see some of that stuff work and to me that profiles more as the Brown player than Fletcher.
- [37:34]
Chip Patterson
This is going to surprise you. This is, this is really going to stun you. And in fact we had a question in the tailgate about this at, at 9:39am Eastern Time, John pulled up into the tailgate, backed up his spot, cracked open a cold one, or maybe it was coffee. He says, hey John. Hey Chip. What's your record on smoke them through the filter lock this season? I'm glad you asked John, because it was tested right out of the gate. You know, I come out here week one all hearty, har har. I'm gonna bring back all my old jokes and I'm just gonna play the hits for everybody because it's week one. You'll remember in the record. I got absolutely bodied in week one. Way off the mark. Lot of lessons to take away as we prepare for 2026. And among my many losses in that week one was Indiana not covering the fourth quarter against Old Dominion. Devastating back to the drawing board. I mean we got to investigate the smoking habits of the entire state of Indiana. However, before we started locking it up again, CP stats and info started giving me some, some notes across the desk and CP stats and info said, hey, we, we kind of think we're back in smoking through the filter again. It just, we needed, we needed a game. We needed a game for Fernando to get settled. We like what we are seeing. They continue to be relentless. And so John, the record in locks of Indiana fourth quarter this season is 4 and 1. Because after losing in week one, the last four times that I've taken Indiana in the fourth quarter, it has been win, win, win and win. And even when they are absolutely snatching ducks out of the sky, filleting them and putting them together for a nice little poutine, this Indiana team is still blitzing the defensive play calls as they are up by a billion. Just show the relentlessness that is at the core of the Indiana fourth quarter principle. So yes, in the national championship game one last time, we Will be taking Indiana in the fourth quarter. Gotta lay a point and a half in this one. We're smoking it through the filter.
- [40:05]
Tom Fernelli
So your unfiltered record is.
- [40:10]
Bud Elliott
Oh like remove those 86 and 78. So fourth quarter filters. What's given Chip the lead here?
- [40:20]
Chip Patterson
All right, so what about anything else props or exotics wise you would want to hit?
- [40:25]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, give me Carson back under one and a half rushing yards.
- [40:30]
Danny Cannell
That's a sucker bet. That's easy. Yeah, I like that.
- [40:34]
Tom Fernelli
Wait, what time on that mean median deviation right there? I see that.
- [40:38]
Bud Elliott
Wait, hold on.
- [40:40]
Danny Cannell
I think it looks, I think the average person. Wait, can you get that? Isn't it like minus 130?
- [40:46]
Bud Elliott
I just looked at it. It is currently my. Oh yeah, it's minus 140.
- [40:50]
Chip Patterson
That's all right. I will go.
- [40:51]
Bud Elliott
Can I go to half? I just won't bet it at all.
- [40:56]
Chip Patterson
It's, it's title game. There's no rules at this point.
- [40:58]
Danny Cannell
I think some people come in here like he's gotta have one rush at least that. I think they forget about the sack yards like to the casual.
- [41:04]
Chip Patterson
So that's what I was gonna ask. How many times do you think longest.
- [41:08]
Danny Cannell
Run does he have? That probably doesn't.
- [41:12]
Bud Elliott
So if I could find it.
- [41:14]
Tom Fernelli
Beck went under one and a half rushing yards.
- [41:19]
Bud Elliott
Eight times in 15 games.
- [41:21]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I got 10, Tom. For as long as I, I, I counted the one which he had no attempts. Excuse me.
- [41:30]
Bud Elliott
Which would still count his rushing long this year is 11 yards.
- [41:36]
Danny Cannell
I think any back rush thing you would go under.
- [41:39]
Chip Patterson
How many times do you think Indiana sacks him?
- [41:42]
Bud Elliott
Four? No, they get the ball out too quick. I would say two or three.
- [41:47]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, I think two or three. So then because they'll confuse him. They'll, they'll, they'll confuse him. I think that's the one thing that they do really well is they'll confuse him and I. He's been pretty good about not making that mistake. Knock on wood if you're taking Miami plus eight and a half. Yeah, I mean that is very worried about the pick six though because we've seen it. I am really hoping they dial up a double move off that deep out cut on d' Angelo Ponds. But then it's like you hope Darson Beck can get it out there.
- [42:14]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. And hit it.
- [42:15]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [42:17]
Chip Patterson
Yep. Any, any other way that that y' all want to attack this one to, to go ahead and get best bets on record.
- [42:25]
Danny Cannell
I had one more.
- [42:25]
Bud Elliott
All right.
- [42:26]
Danny Cannell
Charlie Becker Over 45 and a half receiving yards. I think he's emerged as one of Carson or, excuse me, one of Fernando's favorite targets. We've talked about him emerging as one of the guys and there's concerns at the secondary. You know, I would imagine they probably give Surat and Cooper a little better matchups. That's gonna provide some opportunity for Becker.
- [42:49]
Tom Fernelli
I was actually going Nowakowski over 20 and a half. The tight end for Indiana.
- [42:59]
Bud Elliott
Locking that.
- [43:00]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [43:02]
Chip Patterson
Sweet.
- [43:04]
Bud Elliott
I got one more. Hold on. I will take longest reception. C.J. daniels over 17 and a half.
- [43:16]
Tom Fernelli
Oh, I can see that, Becker.
- [43:22]
Chip Patterson
Okay, so C.J. daniels, longest reception. That ain't gonna be a catch and run. That's gonna be a dial it up down the sideline type play, right?
- [43:34]
Bud Elliott
We'll see, we'll see, we'll see. I think there's, I think there's an opportunity for some run after the catch too.
- [43:43]
Chip Patterson
Of course. We will be live on Monday night to be able to recap how all of this went. And those were the locks Sponsored by Cash App. As you heard me say at the top of the show, new cash app users can use our code and get free money. Use our code, cover three, send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 right in your account. Thank you to Cash App. And coming up on the other side. Oh, let's take a, let's take a look at what we've got here, bud. Throwing Miami plus eight and a half along with Indiana team total under 28 and a half and Noah Kowski over 20 and a half. Chip's got Miami, Indiana first half under 23 and a half. Indiana fourth quarter minus one and a half. Danny has Miami plus eight and a half. Miami, Indiana under 48 and a half. Mark Fletcher over 69 and a half rushing yards and Charlie Becker over 45 and a half receiving yards and Tom Scott. Indiana minus eight and a half. Indiana first half team total over 13 and a half. Mark Fletcher over 15 and a half. Longest rush. Carson Beck under a half a yard. Rushing yard. Wait.
- [44:55]
Bud Elliott
Over a half under, under half a yards rushing.
- [44:59]
Tom Fernelli
Ah.
- [45:00]
Chip Patterson
C.J. daniels over 17 and a half. Longest reception. And coming up on the other side, we've got a pretty important meeting on Sunday. We'll get you primed for what's going to be discussed there, our expectations and more.
- [45:17]
Bud Elliott
Next.
- [45:21]
NFL Today Announcer
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- [45:54]
Chip Patterson
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Yes, this is something that happens every single year. It's in fact part of the the rhythm of the National Championship media scrum for those who are on site on location because on the Sunday before the Monday, all of the conference commissioners, the College Football Playoff Executive Director, the staff and more get together for an annual College Football Playoff meeting. Now this one has a little bit more importance than some of the others that we've had throughout the history of the College Football Playoff as they are trying to come up with an answer to meet a January 23rd deadline to decide what the College Football Playoff will look like for the 2026 season and then possibly beyond as well. Now if they cannot come to any agreement, then we will just have the same format that we had this year again in 2026 and spend a whole nother year talking about qualifiers and calendars and all schedules. There are some ideas as you can imagine. Our own Brandon Marcelo has a well reported and very interesting piece on CBSSports.com right now that lays out some of the different pieces that will be discussed. It includes the Big Ten which has been floating a 24 team playoff model, also adding in there a stopgap 16 team field that the Big Ten is prepared to agree to as long as the rest of the sport commits to expanding to 24 within three years. Now that is particularly notable because the ACC and the Big 12 and the SEC all back a 16 team model with five spots for conference champions and then 1111 at large bids into the 16 team bracket. But the ACC, the Big 12 and the SEC. Those though, those are three of the four power conferences. That is not enough to get it done because all College Football Playoff decisions require the SEC and the Big Ten to get on the same page. In the in the fine words of Brandon at the very beginning of his piece, the cold war between the Big Ten and the SEC is heading to sunny South Florida. So Danny, as you're you've talked to, you've talked to some of the power brokers of the sport in your travels over the last couple weeks or so. Do you do you think that they are close to something that college football fans can be excited about?
- [48:38]
Danny Cannell
I have very little faith.
- [48:40]
Chip Patterson
Do you think they're close and then are they close to something that fans can be excited about?
- [48:44]
Danny Cannell
I think fans would be excited about the two options that are on the table. It feels like it. I Think there's probably. It feels like we're gaining momentum towards staying at 12 for one more year. And I think college football fans would probably be okay with that. From the reaction that I've seen to a lot of people, and I can see Tom and his smirk on his face over there saying, they do not want 16. I think, like, if they went to 16, I think there'd be some people saying, are we sure we want this many? You know, I don't think the 24 team is starting to grow on me.
- [49:15]
Chip Patterson
Oh, no.
- [49:16]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [49:17]
Chip Patterson
But which 20? So the 24 team. There is a 24 team proposal that is just one automatic qualifier reserved for the group of six.
- [49:28]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, I don't love that one.
- [49:29]
Chip Patterson
And 23 at larges seated by a selection committee, which I hate. We're just Gonna put the AP top 25 into a bracket.
- [49:39]
Danny Cannell
I hate that one. I want whatever gets rid of the committee. But I do think the 12 team, one year, one more year probably makes the most sense. Like, I get it. Notre Dame got screwed. You know, Texas looked really good at the end of the season, but I'm kind of okay. Like, it still values the regular season if you keep it there. Yeah, I think we're going to get them standing Pat at 12. That'd be my guess.
- [50:06]
Tom Fernelli
I hope they stand pat at 12 and just kind of like, let this thing work for a little while. It's an imperfect system, but it's not a bad one. You know, I think there are a lot of good come from it. I think some of the changes we already talked about potentially, you know, finding a way to have the ACC fix their tiebreaker would be a good start. That also probably takes care of your two, you know, G5 problem that, like, we can debate if we think it's a problem, but like the networks, I guarantee you think that's a problem, which they're running this thing for the most part, since they kind of own the leagues. If you think about it like the NFL, 43, 44 of the teams make the playoff. Right. NBA, 40, once you get past the play in tournament, MLB, 40, NHL, like 50% make the playoffs. So there's what, 68 P4 teams? If you include Notre Dame, like, what would 40 of that look like? Like, you know, 24 doesn't even really totally approach that yet. So I do think they will continue to expand it. To me, it's not as bad if the sport continues to flatten out and the talent keeps, you know, spreading around more. I don't hate really 16 because I can certainly see a play. I mean, granted, like, if one of those is the G5, they're not winning it, but like 15 out of your 68, I think we could definitely get to a spot in the sport where, you know, there are 15 teams that are actually capable of winning the title, like, if it continues to flatten out talent wise. But I still would prefer to stay at 12. I think 12 is a really good number. I don't think it's diminished the regular season very much, like at all.
- [51:40]
Danny Cannell
And it's enhanced it.
- [51:42]
Tom Fernelli
I, I kind of think so too. But I probably wouldn't throw a fit over 16 if there's no buys, because there would not.
- [51:51]
Chip Patterson
It would be. It would be a clean. The 24 team does have buys. And the other piece that the 2014 proposal is really pushing is the idea that we create more on campus games. Because then with the 24 team, you have two rounds of on campus and one set of buys. So essentially your eight for your eight first round games would then play into the eight second round games where home games have been awarded here and then home games have been awarded here.
- [52:19]
Danny Cannell
And getting rid of the conference championship games in that model, which I love.
- [52:23]
Tom Fernelli
Get rid of conference championship in 24, I. I think in 16, the conference championships are somewhat saved because the opportunity to play a Tulane is a major prize to play for when you're not playing for a buy. Right? Yep. Or like who's the. Who would be the 15th team in this year, like Utah or.
- [52:45]
Bud Elliott
Did you say, Tom, the 24 is common. Yeah, that's my primary takeaway. Yeah. I don't know when it's going to be here, but it's coming. The fact that the Big Ten is backed off of the auto qualifiers.
- [52:56]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [52:56]
Bud Elliott
It's now saying it will be 23 at large, which if you're the SEC, why the hell wouldn't you want that?
- [53:01]
Danny Cannell
Right.
- [53:01]
Bud Elliott
You're going to get 712 teams in. It's just going to be the top 25 every single season. So SEC has always got plenty of teams ranked. The Big Ten always has plenty of teams ranked. So they mentioned in the format the first two rounds will be on campus. Everybody's going to love that because. Because even teams that get a buy will now be able to host at least one home game. You still keep all the Bulls because they will just like they are in the current system. They will host the quarters and the semis. So your big six bowls are all still involved. You still sell the championship game as a rotating thing. From, you know, neutral site to neutral site, you're still making money. More importantly, now you've got 23 playoff games. ESPN is overpaid for the 11 that they have. So much so that they've had to sub license a few of them out to tnt. Guess what? The best way to get all the networks involved in the College Football Playoff is more playoff games. So now you've got 23 games. Fox gets a piece, CBS gets a piece. NBC gets a piece, ESPN gets a piece. Everybody's getting a piece of the pie. It's going to be 24 games. Whether we get there in the next few years, I don't know. But they have said. What I read from Marcelo is the Big Ten is willing to compromise and go to 16 right away in the 11 and 5. As long as they get the agreement that in three years we will bump it up to 24, because that gives everybody the time to get ready for that, which includes getting rid of your conference championship games and figuring out how you're going to do things as far as setting it up for the playoffs. So 24 is coming. It.
- [54:20]
Tom Fernelli
So 23 out of 68 is 34%, which is still, like, meaning meaningfully less than what the other, like, pro leagues have as far as representation in the playoff. Like, obviously you get your 1G5 to avoid antitrust lawsuits, but I. Man, how do you not go two rounds of home playoff games in a 16, right? Like, I know they have like, like contracts with the Bulls and whatnot for now, but like, long term, I can't see these big schools saying, yeah, we need to. We need to go play like, more neutral site games.
- [54:56]
Chip Patterson
Oh, yes, I. Listen, there is. Do you know your. Listen, I want to put you in a tough spot, but your boys down there would love if all of a sudden Orlando got lifted up and now for sure we've got a playoff game. No, like, yeah, Mayo bowl would love to get lifted up. Now, all of a sudden that's a playoff game. Like, there's. That's another moving piece of. This is not actually more on campus, but like, there's a potential that there's more bowl games get drafted into the ecosystem of the college football playoffs.
- [55:26]
Bud Elliott
I don't think they would, though. I think you can still stick with the six.
- [55:29]
Chip Patterson
No, you can. But I'm just. I was just saying, I know that that is another piece of this that the Bulls would like to be if. If there's going to be more college football playoff games created than there are now. Which expansion would naturally do that. That the Bulls are interested in getting an opportunity to, to join the picture.
- [55:49]
Tom Fernelli
I, I just think if. I have some concerns about the regular season. If you go to 24 and I'm. Since Tom thinks we're going to 24 and I don't disagree. What is the way we maximize the important, the importance of the regular season? Right. It's buys and also getting the opportunity to play more home games like that, that's a real advantage for you?
- [56:11]
Bud Elliott
Well, the, it's what's happened in pro sports. And this is my. I mean this gets to the very foundation of why I was always against expanding this thing to begin with. If you look at every professional sport, the regular season has been diminished in all of them because they expand the playoffs every single year. Every single sport has added more and more teams to the playoffs at the expense of their regular season. You look at the NBA's television deal, they're getting billions of dollars. Most of that is for the playoffs, which. The damn playoffs last nearly as long as the regular season at this point because each conference has eight teams getting in. The NHL is the same. Baseball keeps adding more. The NFL keeps adding more. The majority of television dollars come for the ratings of the playoff games. Now if you're baseball, you're getting the money for the content and the time that you fill with your regular season because you play so many games and college football doesn't have that. So it's like the NFL. There is still going to be value as far as the television aspect because people will still be watching. But to really increase the amount of money coming in, you need more playoff games. And to really do that and then really take it to the next level, you need to have more than one network bidding on those games. You need to be splitting that pie. That is what MLB has done. That is what NFL has done. That's where the money comes. And that's why there will be a 2014, because then you've got 23 games to split among all those different networks.
- [57:26]
Tom Fernelli
So depending on what, what number you want to use for home field advantage, playing two home playoff games as opposed to two road playoff games, your win probability of winning both Those is like 34 compared to 17.
- [57:39]
Chip Patterson
But you wouldn't almost dump. I don't. You would not get two home games. I was just, I was saying I.
- [57:45]
Tom Fernelli
Want to increase the number of home games to make like, like to give like more important. Yeah, right. Like, hey guys, do you really want to go play back to back road playoff games? No, we need to we need to like pedal.
- [57:57]
Bud Elliott
They don't care about that. Like if like the one thing that also expanding to 24 will do for them. And again I making it clear, I'm not arguing for it, I'm just telling you what's going to happen.
- [58:08]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [58:08]
Bud Elliott
The reason that they want to do this is you saw the ratings for Ole Miss in Miami, in Indiana and Oregon. They were down compared to those same games last year. So if you expand to 24, you get more big brands in and if the home field advantages in as much of an advantage, maybe that just means more big brands get to the quarters in the semis, which is where the real ratings start going up. I mean it's. They're not really caring about the best teams winning. They want the higher ratings.
- [58:35]
Tom Fernelli
I think it's also a travel intendence issue. Right. Like you didn't have a lot of Oregon fans in Atlanta.
- [58:44]
Danny Cannell
I.
- [58:45]
Chip Patterson
All right, so if, if we spin this forward, Tom Forelli, 24 is coming. Quote it, stamp it. He is, he has declared it. Then the way that we would talk about it in November. 1 through 8 get home games in the second round. 9 through 16 get home games in the first round. 17 through 24 are on the road in the first round. Is that I just back, back of the napkin.
- [59:10]
Tom Fernelli
Eight teams get buys.
- [59:12]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. So eight first round games and then the winners move on to the eight teams.
- [59:16]
Chip Patterson
The next ones. Yeah. So you still would have buys in the 2014 model and those teams would be guaranteed home games instead of their first game having to be at a neutral site bowl. And then those winners would then play into the quarterfinals set up as we know them now with some combination of the six CFP BCS games. You know, those being the four quarterfinals and the two semifinals and title game bid out.
- [59:41]
Bud Elliott
So this is start on the weekend of when conference championship games are.
- [59:44]
Chip Patterson
Right. And they would move Army Navy up to when conference championship game would be.
- [59:52]
Tom Fernelli
I, man, I, I would almost rather see some like play in stuff and have less buys. I want to see more games from those top teams. And I, I don't think that's a great product.
- [60:04]
Chip Patterson
The buy the play in game. The idea like the conference jamboree according to Marcelo's piece is kind of not got a lot of legs right now.
- [60:12]
Bud Elliott
And also that's what the first round will be.
- [60:14]
Chip Patterson
Yep.
- [60:15]
Bud Elliott
It's going to be all those same teams are going to be in that first round.
- [60:18]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, they're gonna be playing games, which.
- [60:20]
Bud Elliott
I think is what they should have called it all along. That Might have sold it better, Chip, if they'd just been calling it the conference jamboree. Maybe they get that through.
- [60:27]
Tom Fernelli
You could run it with four or six and still have that work. If you have like the very bottom seeds play each other, you could run what, you could run a 2014 playoff with four buys or six buys. I, I don't love the idea of eight.
- [60:44]
Chip Patterson
I, my, my understanding of it is that that's what, you know, you're talking about what will make the sport better or worse. That means we spend all of November talking about 8 as a cut line. Means we talk, we spend all of November talking about 16 as a cut line and that like those games end up getting huge amount of importance and you know what's going to happen. There's going to be some team that's just stuck there at 13 and we're going to be like, all right, don't, don't lose the pit. I guess. I mean you'll be hosting round one, you'll be on the road in round two. Like that can't do anything. But there will be some teams, especially on that 8, 9 cut line and again on that 16, 17 cut line where things will get really, really interesting. You know, Tom, let's, let's call it out a lot like are you going to Champions League or Europa or not at all? Like that's, that's kind of the way.
- [61:34]
Bud Elliott
That the, the wouldn't. Wouldn't shock me if, wouldn't shock me if eventually we get to a Europa League kind of tournament.
- [61:40]
Tom Fernelli
But Europa is the, Europa's like the junior Champions League.
- [61:44]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, yeah.
- [61:45]
Bud Elliott
It's like the second. Yeah. So like it wouldn't shock me. Yeah, yeah.
- [61:50]
Danny Cannell
Top.
- [61:50]
Bud Elliott
It won't shock me if the remaining bowl games become like an NIT kind of tournament.
- [61:57]
Chip Patterson
Like when you're looking at soccer standings, bud, it shows you that the top x amount, usually 4 or 5 are going to get to Champions League and then the next one or two are going to go to Europa. So you're fighting for the different spots there and in these rankings that's where we would be going. I, I do also want it read into the record. I say let's stay at 12.
- [62:16]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [62:17]
Chip Patterson
My biggest complaints are the calendar and they are selfish. I do, I think that extending to January 19, January 20, like all this is, it feels and doesn't mean that it's. This is a feeling does not mean it's scientific, but it feels, feels like even our most die hard fans are just showing up out of rhythm, you know, they're, they're kind of running out of gas and we're excited about these games to talk about them, but man, it does, it ain't, it ain't hitting when it feels like a lot of the rest of the sports world has kind of moved on with, with other.
- [62:50]
Bud Elliott
Events I would like to re. Enter into the record. Let's go back to two.
- [62:55]
Tom Fernelli
Sure.
- [62:56]
Chip Patterson
Hey, I plus one. I'm still. Plus one was dandy.
- [63:01]
Tom Fernelli
They. This almost necessitates you change the calendar some though, right? Like you're starting the first round during conference championship week.
- [63:09]
Chip Patterson
Yes.
- [63:10]
Tom Fernelli
What do you do with Army Navy?
- [63:11]
Chip Patterson
Move it to conference championship week.
- [63:14]
Tom Fernelli
So they're playing Army Navy the same weekend as playoff start? Yep.
- [63:18]
Chip Patterson
I mean, they had bowl games this year the same weekend as Army Navy.
- [63:22]
Tom Fernelli
Do they get like a protected window?
- [63:24]
Danny Cannell
Maybe.
- [63:25]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [63:25]
Bud Elliott
All right.
- [63:26]
Tom Fernelli
Okay. Yeah. I've long argued for the protected window, not the protected day for Army Navy. Yeah.
- [63:33]
Chip Patterson
They had a protected window this year and the bowl season had Boise State and Washington play after the conclusion of Army Navy. So we've already, like, we've all, we've already broken that one down. Overton window has been moved. So now we'll just see if, we'll see if they end up following through with it.
- [63:53]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [63:54]
Bud Elliott
All right.
- [63:54]
Chip Patterson
I mean, we'll, we'll see, we'll talk about it. Whatever. Whatever it is. Hey. Hey, Rich Clark, I know he's a huge fan of the COVID 3 podcast. Rich, why don't you just like, just, just tell us when you got it settled and then we'll, we'll adjust our expectations appropriately. We'll still be talking about the teams, we'll still be talking about the games. You tell us where they're going to be and what the stakes are, we'll be excited to break them down here on the COVID 3 podcast. We will be back on Monday. Two shows on Monday, first 11am Eastern time, little last minute vibe check. Heading into the College Football Playoff national championship. And then Monday night, as soon as the game goes final, we'll be live@YouTube.com cover3. So come and hang out and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fordell. You can follow him at Buddha3. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.
- [64:46]
Bud Elliott
Let's go to 64, 128.
- [64:50]
NFL Today Announcer
Saturday, the AFC Divisional Playoff kicks off on CBS. After a dramatic win last weekend, Josh Allen's Bills face the toughest test of their postseason journey when they charge into Denver to take on Bo Nix in the top seated Broncos.
- [65:06]
Chip Patterson
He's got him. Touchdown.
- [65:08]
NFL Today Announcer
It all begins at 3:38 Eastern with the NFL Today, the NFL postseason is on CBS and streaming on Paramount. Plus.