Cover 3 College Football Podcast — National Championship LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for Indiana vs. Miami
Date: January 15, 2026
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
Main Theme
This episode of the Cover 3 College Football Podcast centers on in-depth analysis, predictions, and "locks" (best bets) for the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship featuring the Indiana Hoosiers and the Miami Hurricanes. The conversation also explores the return of key players, implications for upcoming seasons, the quarterback landscape, recent College Football Hall of Fame inductees, and a detailed breakdown of the ever-shifting playoff formats under discussion by the sport's power brokers.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Dante Moore’s Return to Oregon and Quarterback Landscape (02:24–14:59)
- Dante Moore Returns: Oregon QB Dante Moore’s decision to stay in college instead of entering the NFL Draft is major news, boosting Oregon's championship prospects next season.
- Danny Kanell (04:13): “Yeah, just book them [Oregon fans]. Vegas. Now, you can avoid all the bidding wars... I am believer in these ones.”
- There is broad excitement about the talent Oregon retains, and hosts note Moore’s maturity, patience, and focus on long-term development.
- Quarterback Crop for 2026: The hosts rattle off an impressive list of returning quarterbacks, foreseeing a strong, fun season, though they caution against assuming greatness.
- Tom Fornelli (07:17): "There’s so many, I feel like somewhere between really competent to extremely high level quarterbacks coming back for 26. This is going to be a fun year."
- Chip Patterson (10:14): “I’m going to be bearish on the idea that Dante Moore and the quarterback class is awesome… just because I’m old enough to remember what Drew Aller, Cade Klubnik, Arch Manning... all were supposed to be.”
- NIL money is discussed as a new factor encouraging top players to stay in school.
- Oregon’s Coaching Transitions: The internal promotion of Drew Mehringer as OC is seen as a vote of confidence, with Dante Moore’s decision signaling trust in the offensive direction.
2. Potential Miami Quarterback Moves and Transfer Portal Dynamics (12:46–16:30)
- With Miami’s quarterback situation unresolved, there’s speculation around Dylan Raiola (Oregon) possibly being poached.
- Danny Kanell (12:50): "What if his plan was to sit and Miami’s not tampering? They would never do that. No one tampers."
- The remaining QB options in the transfer portal are described as limited and underwhelming.
- Bud Elliott (15:31): "Not great."
- The next 72 hours are forecasted to be eventful with potential surprise portal entries.
3. College Football Hall of Fame Class Discussion (16:30–19:07)
- Reaction to Hall of Fame inductees including Mark Ingram, Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald, Chris Peterson, Gary Patterson, Peter Warrick, and Jordan Lynch.
- Tom Fornelli (17:07): "Glad to see Peter Warrick finally getting in there. I mean, that guy was, he was so good, man."
- Questions about new eligibility rules and why Mike Leach was not included.
- Chip Patterson (18:46): "If we’re gonna make a big deal about changing the rules for Mike Leach... would have been excited to see his name on this one."
4. National Championship Game: Best Bets and Handicapping Indiana vs. Miami (20:27–44:55)
A. Spread and Side Analysis (22:34–28:49)
- Main Lines:
- Indiana favored at –8.5, up from opening of –6.5.
- Bud Elliott (22:34): LOCK: Indiana -8.5
- “How much more do they need to show you?... I think Indiana is the best team in the country all year... I think they can win by 10.”
- Tom Fornelli & Danny Kanell Counter with Miami +8.5
- Tom Fornelli (23:54): "If Mendoza plays as well as he has... Miami is cooked, but if not, this number is inflated.”
- Danny Kanell (26:32): “I love Miami getting eight and a half points.”
- Concern over Indiana being overvalued due to previous opponents' injuries and turnovers.
- Miami’s physical defense, especially up front, is cited as a reason to keep it close.
B. Over/Under and Total Points (29:53–32:45)
- Consensus builds around the UNDER (47.5 or 48.5).
- Tom Fornelli (30:03): “I like under 48.5, and I think if you like Miami, you need under 48.”
- Danny Kanell (30:11): “Lock it up. Give me under 47.5.”
- Miami’s ball-control and Indiana’s red-zone defense support expectations of a lower scoring first half.
- Chip Patterson (31:25): LOCK: First Half Under 23.5
- “Miami wants a 12 play, 8 minute drive... And the problem is that Indiana does an amazing job of bowing up...”
C. Team Totals & Prop Bets (32:49–43:42)
- Indiana First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (Bud Elliott, 32:49): “Miami’s defense is banged up... could be down three corners... Indiana has showed it can start fast.”
- Indiana Team Total Under 28.5 (Tom Fornelli, 33:57) — implied with Miami +8.5 and the Under.
- Miami Team Total Under 20.5 (Tom Fornelli, 34:19)
- Discussion: If Indiana hits their team total over, their win probability is almost guaranteed.
- Fourth Quarter Principle: Chip Patterson (39:51): Indiana 4Q -1.5 (“smoke it through the filter”) — “...the last four times that I’ve taken Indiana in the fourth quarter, it has been win, win, win and win.”
Notable Player Props:
- Mark Fletcher (Miami RB) Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (Danny Kanell, 35:33): “I do think if I do like Miami, I do think they will be able to run the football...”
- Mark Fletcher Longest Run Over 15.5 Yards (Bud Elliott, 36:31): "He's got 16 runs of 16 yards or more this season..."
- Carson Beck (Miami QB) Under 0.5 Rushing Yards (Bud Elliott, 40:25): bet based on sack yardage and play style.
- Charlie Becker Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (Danny Kanell, 42:26): “He’s emerged as one of Fernando's favorite targets.”
- Aidan Nowakowski (Indiana TE) Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (Tom Fornelli, 42:49).
- C.J. Daniels (Indiana WR) Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (Bud Elliott, 43:03).
Best Bets Recap (44:45)
- Indiana: -8.5 (Bud), 1H team total over 13.5 (Bud), 4Q -1.5 (Chip), Mark Fletcher longest run over 15.5 (Bud).
- Miami: +8.5 (Tom, Danny), Team total under 20.5 (Tom), under 48.5 (Tom, Danny), 1H under 23.5 (Chip), Mark Fletcher over 69.5 rush (Danny), Becker over 45.5 receiving (Danny), Nowakowski over 20.5 (Tom), C.J. Daniels longest catch (Bud), Carson Beck under 0.5 rushing (Bud).
5. College Football Playoff Format Debates & Impending Decisions (45:53–63:33)
- Sunday’s Playoff Meeting: Upcoming decision about future CFP format is critical, with a deadline looming (Jan 23).
- Chip Patterson (45:53): “...trying to come up with an answer to what the College Football Playoff will look like for the 2026 season and beyond.”
- Current Proposals:
- Big Ten favors a 24-team playoff proposal with a stopgap 16-team alternative if all commit to eventual 24.
- SEC, ACC, Big 12 want a 16-team playoff with 5 auto-bids for conference champions, 11 at-larges.
- All plans require SEC and Big Ten cooperation.
- Key Quote: “The cold war between the Big Ten and the SEC is heading to sunny South Florida.”
- Hosts' Views:
- Danny Kanell (48:40): “I have very little faith [that a deal will be struck soon]... I think we’re gaining momentum towards staying at 12 for one more year.”
- Tom Fornelli (50:05): “I hope they stand pat at 12 and let this thing work a little while. It’s an imperfect system, but it’s not a bad one.”
- Bud Elliott (52:45): “The 24-team is coming... The fact that the Big Ten has backed off of auto qualifiers—if you’re the SEC, why the hell wouldn’t you want that? You’re going to get seven, twelve teams in.”
- Tom Fornelli (54:19): “23 out of 68 is 34%, meaningfully less than other pro leagues... If you have more playoff games, more networks get involved, more money."
- Concerns About Regular Season Diminishment:
- Bud Elliott (56:11): “If you look at every pro sport, the regular season has been diminished... all for more playoff games and TV money.”
- Logistics:
- Playoff expansion may eliminate conference title games; more on-campus playoff games are widely viewed as positive.
- First and second rounds of a potential 24-team playoff would likely be campus-based, then progress to bowl sites.
- The hosts discuss the possible sporting parallels to Champions League/Europa League in soccer, or even an NIT style “second tournament” for non-CFP-qualifying bowl teams.
- General Sentiment: Preference for 12 teams, but expectation that expansion—driven by TV money and power conference interests—is inevitable.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Indiana’s Dominance:
Bud Elliott (22:34): “They’ve beaten the hell out of everybody that they’ve played... I think Indiana is the best team in the country all year, whether we realized it or not.” -
On Miami as a Live Underdog:
Danny Kanell (26:32): “Are we really going to look at that and say, oh, that makes them unbeatable? They beat an Oregon team that was decimated with injuries... I love Miami getting eight and a half points.” -
On NIL’s Impact:
Bud Elliott (08:42): “Typically don’t see guys projected to go that high come back to school, but NIL changes that equation a bit... It’s a sign of maturity…” -
On Overhyping QB Classes:
Chip Patterson (10:14): “I’m old enough to remember what Drew Aller, Cade Klubnik, Arch Manning... were supposed to be.” -
On Future Playoff Expansion:
Bud Elliott (52:45): “The 24-team is coming... now you’ve got 23 playoff games... Fox gets a piece, CBS gets a piece, NBC gets a piece, ESPN gets a piece. Everybody’s getting a piece of the pie. It’s going to be 24.” -
On Regular Season Value:
Bud Elliott (56:11): "If you look at every professional sport, the regular season has been diminished... because they expand the playoffs every single year." -
On Hall of Fame Rules:
Chip Patterson (18:46): “If we're gonna make a big deal about changing the rules for Mike Leach... would have been excited to see his name on this one.”
Timestamps for Important Segments
- 02:24 Dante Moore returns to Oregon / Oregon's future
- 04:13 Danny Kanell on Oregon’s title prospects
- 06:02 Tom Fornelli on the QB landscape for 2026
- 07:43 Discussion: risk of hyping QB classes
- 08:42 Bud Elliott on NIL’s effect on player returns
- 10:14 Chip Patterson skeptical on QB class hype
- 12:46 Dylan Raiola/Miami QB situation speculation
- 16:30 College Football Hall of Fame reactions
- 20:27 Locks and best bets for Indiana vs. Miami — main betting analysis begins
- 22:34 Main spread/side debate
- 29:53 Over/Under, total points analysis
- 32:49 Team totals and prop bet betting discussion
- 39:51 Indiana 4th Quarter ‘filter’ principle explained
- 45:53 Discussion on CFB Playoff meeting and future formats
- 52:45 Deep dive: Why a 24-team playoff seems inevitable
- 56:11 The impact of playoff expansion on the regular season
- 59:09 Playoff expansion logistics and cutlines
- 61:33 Parallels to Champions League/Europa League and closing playoff format thoughts
Summary Table: Best Bets
| Host | Best Bets & Locks | |--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Bud | Indiana -8.5; Indiana 1H team total over 13.5; Mark Fletcher long run >15.5; Carson Beck under 0.5 rushing yds; C.J. Daniels longest rec. >17.5 | | Tom | Miami +8.5; Under 48.5; Indiana team total under 28.5; Miami team total under 20.5; Nowakowski over 20.5 rec. yards | | Danny | Miami +8.5; Under 48.5; Mark Fletcher over 69.5 rush yds; Charlie Becker over 45.5 rec. yds | | Chip | Miami lean; 1H under 23.5; Indiana 4Q -1.5 (“smoke it through the filter”)|
Tone & Language
The conversation is spirited, informed, and peppered with humor and friendly jabs. The hosts avoid jargon, making their analysis accessible, and they maintain authentic, passionate college football fan energy throughout.
For Listeners Who Missed The Episode
This episode offers a comprehensive, entertaining breakdown of the national championship matchup (both sides and totals), as well as sharp insight on college football’s hottest topics: QB transfers, NIL, and the evolution of the sport’s postseason. Their candor about playoff expansion, its implications for the regular season and TV revenue, and memories of recent CFB history provide valuable perspective for any college football enthusiast.
Quotable Moment to Remember:
“The 24-team [playoff] is coming... Now you’ve got 23 playoff games. Fox gets a piece, CBS gets a piece, NBC gets a piece, ESPN gets a piece... Everybody’s getting a piece of the pie.”
— Bud Elliott (52:45)
Don’t miss the Monday recap shows and keep an ear out for crucial College Football Playoff format news in the coming weeks!
