Cover 3 College Football Podcast — April 2, 2025 Episode: Turnaround Teams: These Teams Are Poised For A Bounce Back Season in 2025

Overview

In this episode, hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, and Danny Kanell take a deep dive into college football’s potential “turnaround teams” for the upcoming 2025 season. They analyze which programs that struggled or fell short of expectations last year are most likely to bounce back. The crew goes conference-by-conference, debates quarterback transfers, coaching changes, returning production, and the evolving landscape shaped by the transfer portal and NIL. Along the way, the group offers candid (and often humorous) takes, memorable quotes, and listener questions from the Cover 3 “tailgate.”

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Spring Transfer Portal Window (Beginning at [06:41])

• Spring portal opens April 16 and closes April 25.
• Early portal action: Stanford’s standout edge rusher David Bailey enters the portal after the coaching change; Texas Tech and Texas are possible landing spots.
  • Tom Fornelli [08:00]: “How many of the guys in that locker room are going to really feel bought in when they know that the guy telling them what to do is not going to be there long term? So I, I'm not shocked by this.”
  • Danny Kanell [09:01]: “It gets pretty enticing to be a part of a winner... as much as you want to sell him on ‘Frank Reich's going to help us get this thing turned around,’ the reality is the Stanford team we don't think is going to be very good.”
• Discussion about the rise of journeyman quarterbacks, specifically Drew Pyne (potentially landing at his fourth school):
  • Danny Kanell [12:01]: “This is like a minor league baseball player bouncing around from program to program, and he's just not good enough for the big leagues... It's not the same college experience any of us had.”
  • Tom Fornelli [15:07]: “Maybe he's on a nationwide frat party tour.”

Big Ten Turnaround Candidates ([18:36])

Michigan State Spartans

• 2024 Record: 5-7 (3-6 B1G)
• New coach: Jonathan Smith, now in Year 2.
• Quarterback Aidan Childs identified as a potential breakout if he develops, but turnovers must be reduced.
  • Tom Fornelli [19:18]: “Can this team get back to a bowl? Yeah... I do think that they have the possibility simply because of the talent of the quarterback.”
  • Danny Kanell [20:14]: “Year two of the head coach — that's always when you hope that you get that step forward.”

Wisconsin Badgers

• 2024 Record: 5-7 (3-6 B1G), finished on a 5-game losing streak.
• New Offensive Coordinator Jeff Grimes aims to improve alignment with HC Luke Fickell. QB Billy Edwards comes in from Maryland and is seen as an upgrade, but schedule is brutal (road trips to Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, and rivalry with Minnesota; home against Ohio State, Iowa, Washington).
  • Tom Fornelli [24:12]: “I think Wisconsin could be a better football team in 2025 and it won’t make a damn bit of difference in their record...”
  • Danny Kanell [25:49]: “They've got the 13th best transfer portal class... but they’re gonna be shorthanded against the likes of Bama, Michigan, Ohio State.”

Maryland Terrapins

• 2024 Record: 4-8 (1-8 B1G), five-game losing streak to end the year.
• Key departures: QB Billy Edwards, RB Roman Hemby. UCLA transfer Justin Martin expected to compete for starting QB role.
  • Tom Fornelli [27:42]: “A lot of their productive guys are gone... But there is a chance this team can get to a bowl, which, looking at last year, would be a turnaround.”
  • Chip Patterson [29:51]: “They are excited about UCLA transfer Justin Martin... Maryland's success, a lot of it's going to hinge on him.”

Honorable Mentions

• Northwestern: Could improve with transfer QB Preston Stone.
• Purdue: Too many unknown factors for a real turnaround prediction.

Southeastern Conference (SEC) Bounce-Back Hopefuls ([34:34])

Auburn Tigers

• 2024 Record: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)
• New QB Jackson Arnold and one of the top-rated transfer classes in the league, according to Hugh Freeze. But schedule is challenging (at Baylor, at Oklahoma, at Texas A&M, home for Georgia and Alabama).
  • Tom Fornelli [36:25]: “I am firmly in the camp that Jackson Arnold is an improvement... but six and six is possible and I would not call that a turnaround.”
  • Danny Kanell [38:06]: “I think this is the year that Hugh Freeze is well aware of—‘I gotta get eight wins or I might be shown the door.’... I kind of like it as a potential turnaround team. Eight wins is about as much as I'm going.”

Kentucky Wildcats

• 2024 Record: 4-8 (1-7 SEC)
• New QB Zach Calzada, but concern about the loss of momentum and no more divisions.
  • Danny Kanell [45:56]: “Turnaround is getting to a bowl, right? That's how we define it. I wonder if he's lost some equity... has that undermined some of the goodwill he built up?”
  • Chip Patterson [46:42]: “The Texas A&M midnight flirtation, ‘Oh no, I'm actually back,’—I think that had an impact.”

Notable Quotes

• Tom Fornelli [40:54]: “I do not care about where your transfer class ranks... those rankings are meaningless for the most part.”
• Danny Kanell [43:09]: “When the portal opens... if all these players start landing at Auburn, well then, hey, you've got a chance to change this narrative.”

Other SEC Teams

• Mississippi State: Not considered a turnaround candidate yet.
• Oklahoma: Needs a hot start but grueling back half of schedule.
• Overall league bounce-back: Bud Elliott is high on improved SEC quarterback play. Tom and Danny are skeptical, wanting to "see it with their eyes."

ACC & Other Notable Teams ([51:12])

Florida State (FSU)

• 2024 Record: 2-10
• Major staff changes, Gus Malzahn as OC, and UCF transfer Thomas Castellanos at QB are seen as a possible spark offensively, but major concerns about defense and culture after last year’s collapse.
  • Danny Kanell [51:40]: “Florida State has to return to physicality, like running the football... That’s a welcome trend for Mike Norvell and his offensive staff.”
  • Tom Fornelli [53:21]: “When you put together a team of mercenaries... when things aren’t going well, they’re not going to give you their best effort. They’re just going to check out.”

North Carolina Tar Heels

• 2024 Record: 6-7
• New coach Bill Belichick brings optimism but unclear where the “stars” are on the roster; QB unsettled.
  • Danny Kanell [56:43]: “This is me more a play on Bill Belichick—that he's going to work.”
  • Tom Fornelli [57:43]: “Coaching can make a huge difference for a team that has just average talent... but are they going to get back to eight or nine wins?”

Big 12 & Group of Five: The Wild, Wild West ([59:42])

Utah Utes

• Return QB certainty and new OC; trust in staff (Kyle Whittingham). Very tough schedule, though.
  • Tom Fornelli [60:44]: “I expect Utah gets back into that Big 12 title race. Yes.”
  • Danny Kanell [61:12]: “They were almost hijacked by Cam Rising the last couple of years... Now they’ll get stability.”

Oklahoma State

• 2024 Record: 3-9 (0-9 Big 12)
• Hosts agree the program appears to be fading rather than positioned for a quick rebound.

Houston Cougars

• Encouraging signs under Willie Fritz, especially with transfer QB Connor Wegman.
  • Tom Fornelli [63:11]: “I just think Willie Fritz is a good enough coach... I think Houston could legit be a dark horse in the conference.”

UCF Knights

• New coach Scott Frost faces huge roster turnover; tough schedule. Hosts doubt a true turnaround is realistic in Year 1.

Arizona Wildcats & West Virginia

• Arizona: Loss of star WR Teteroa McMillan and low vibes after coaching change.
• West Virginia: Might go from bowl team to conference contender under Rich Rod, but it's more about continuity than true turnaround.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Danny Kanell on the changing transfer landscape [12:01]: “This is like a minor league baseball player bouncing around from program to program, and he's just not good enough for the big leagues... All these guys are missing out [on the college experience].”
• Tom Fornelli on transfer class ratings [40:54]: “I do not care about where your transfer class ranks... those rankings are meaningless for the most part.”
• Chip Patterson on Auburn’s transfer portal strategy [41:07]: “I think Auburn might have misplayed its hand if it thought the 2025 portal cycle was going to be a chance to dramatically upgrade the roster.”
• Danny Kanell on North Carolina’s new regime [56:43]: “He’s kept some continuity on the offense. He’s bringing in guys... I do think his mind will put some offensive coordinators in a blender.”
• Tom Fornelli on the unpredictable Big 12 [59:42]: “In the Big 12, everything is a turnaround or a fall down or a collapse or a bounce back... What's top? It's bottom. What's left is right.”

Key Timestamps

• Spring transfer portal discussion: [06:41] – [16:54]
• Big Ten turnaround candidates: [18:36] – [32:12]
• SEC bounce-back debate: [34:34] – [49:21]
• ACC teams (FSU, UNC): [51:08] – [59:42]
• Big 12 analysis: [59:42] – [69:30]

Listener/Tailgate Engagement

• Banter about cricket and spring sports
• Questions and comments from live chat (the “tailgate”)
• Notable mention of basketball’s high transfer rates as a comparison ([18:08])
• G5 team discussion teased for the next mailbag episode

Tone & Style

As always, the Cover 3 Podcast maintains its lively, irreverent, and deeply knowledgeable discussion style. Hosts mix data-driven analysis with personal anecdotes, poke fun at each other, and aren't afraid to voice skepticism about trends such as transfer portal hype. They're candid, playful, and always passionate about college football.

Summary:
This episode delivers a comprehensive look at college football’s most intriguing turnaround candidates for 2025, with nuanced assessments of how coaching changes, quarterback play, transfer portal activity, and schedule strength could drive improvement (or continued struggle). The hosts combine serious program analysis with clever banter and listener engagement, anchored by sharp quotes and revealing insights throughout.