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Turnaround Teams: These Teams Are Poised For A Bounce Back Season in 2025 | Cover 3 Podcast
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- [00:00]
Chip Patterson
This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about in depth analysis on college football are boring Sometimes, sure. But doing the research and understanding every game gives you the knowledge that you need to make small talk with any sports fan anywhere. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is it's what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life. PNC Bank Brilliantly boring since 1865 Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank National Association Member FDIC I'm.
- [00:43]
Danny Cannell
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- [00:50]
Tom Fernelli
That's why I reached out to co.
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Danny Cannell
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- [01:14]
Tom Fernelli
Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli.
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Danny Cannell
Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott.
- [01:22]
Tom Fernelli
It's your call for the best coverage.
- [01:25]
Danny Cannell
From national signing day to the national.
- [01:28]
Tom Fernelli
Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
- [01:36]
Chip Patterson
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Cannell, I'm Chip Patterson coming to you as Cover three and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe Smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where cricket talk is popping.
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Tom Fernelli
What?
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Chip Patterson
Oh yeah, let me, let me get you here. So it started with a conversation about, you know, where we are in crickets and whether the cricket bat is like the torpedo bat. Then our man, Emperor Fabulous said, I got introduced to cricket six years ago and fell in love with it. It's a lot of the things I loved about baseball and a lot of the things I didn't like about baseball. And then we just keep rolling and you wonder how deep it gotten. We're describing it. Then we've got to the positions that each Cover 3 host would play if they were on a cricket squad. I'd make DK the bowler parentheses pitcher even though it is an odd throwing action. Can't bend the elbow. Give Tom the gloves. Only the wicket keeper catcher has gloves. Put Bud in the slip cordon next to the keeper to catch balls that get Edged chip, chip, chip. We can put under the lid. Parentheses helmet at silly mid off, about six to eight feet in front of the batsman at a 45 degree angle.
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Tom Fernelli
Yes, I understood all of that.
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Danny Cannell
I thought it was not suitable for work for a minute.
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Chip Patterson
Edging. What is this?
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Danny Cannell
Have you guys ever seen either outside of Chicago or in North Carolina, have you ever seen like pickup cricket?
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Chip Patterson
No.
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Tom Fernelli
No.
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Danny Cannell
So it's pretty popular here in South Florida. Obviously there's two. There's one like huge stadium they built. I think it's in plantation, like a cricket stadium and they host pretty big events. Then I was at a volleyball tournament in FIU's campus. Like right adjacent to their campus, there's a massive field and they like pick up cricket. And it's like three years running. They're out there all the time. On the weekends they're. I really wanted to go over and ask him, like, explain some of those terms because I do think it's got to be fun, right? Like, otherwise it wouldn't be, you know, so, you know, popular in other countries. And it looked fun. Like it does have some of those concepts. I think I would like it, but I would have no clue where to hit the ball, where it's going. Like, can you hit it backwards? Is it 45 degree angle? Is that what he sounds like? So you have to keep it 45. Like. And who judges that?
- [04:15]
Chip Patterson
All right, so the energy is electric. Okay. Like when watching a cricket match, you can tell that there is always something going on. The fans are dialed into it. I. I've got a. I've got a friend over on the sports line side of things, Danny Brasco, who has gotten into live betting cricket. We call him Danny. We call him Danny Wickett's now. And he's just, he's got a good feel for it. He can jump in, he can see which way the vibes are tilting and be able to have himself in a winner. Check him out on. On the early edge, 10am can't hit it backwards.
- [04:48]
Danny Cannell
You can like deflect it backwards. But the other thing, I don't, I don't know if I've ever seen like the defenders, the guys catching, do they. Do they have to run and get the ball or they just kind of always hitting and pitching? Because I never really feel like I see somebody like make a diving catch in cricket.
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Tom Fernelli
I've never seen anybody do anything in cricket. So I don't know.
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Danny Cannell
I know the pitcher and I know the hitter.
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Chip Patterson
What. Listen, once. Once we get through getting Danny into soccer, okay? After that, our next. Our next challenge will be cover three tackles. Cricket. That'll be. That'll be our next challenge.
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Tom Fernelli
I do feel like Danny would probably take to cricket more than soccer just because it's baseballish.
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Danny Cannell
Yeah. Yeah.
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Tom Fernelli
Do people fall down and pretend that they're hurting cricket?
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Chip Patterson
No, I don't think. I think they're putting their bodies on the line in cricket.
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Tom Fernelli
Okay.
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Chip Patterson
Okay.
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Danny Cannell
Aren't there games. We got to move on. I was gonna say, aren't there games like marathons? Like, don't they go for like.
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Tom Fernelli
I have heard that. Yes. There's been like really long game. Oh.
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Chip Patterson
Like you have to like pause it and then come back to it.
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Danny Cannell
Yeah.
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Tom Fernelli
With cricket, you get a sticky wicket. So.
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Chip Patterson
All right, that's it. No, no, sir. I don't think so. All right. It is April. Happy, happy April to everybody. But it also kind of has some, some coaches starting to get little pins and needles. Why it's coming up here in just a couple of weeks, we are going to get the spring portal window. So let's jump into the portal.
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Tom Fernelli
Foreign.
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Chip Patterson
Two weeks from today, April 16, we've got the spring transfer portal window opening. It closes on April 25th. It will be fast, it will be furious. And we've already got some. We've already got a little bit of activity, the first of which wasn't necessarily portal related when it comes to the portal window because as we know, if there's a coaching change, the portal opens up for everybody on that team. And that has meant that Stanford has lost one of its most talented players. David Bailey has entered the transfer portal. He has already started to prepare his visits. He was a four star prospect as an edge rusher. He is a four star transfer portal prospect as well. Now coming out of high school, they projected him to be the second third round pick player comp of Anthony Barr. I know Texas Tech was on the list of potential visits for him. I know that Texas is in the mix as well. This of course not a. Not a huge surprise when you think about who are the big players for anybody of that caliber. Do you, do you think that this will be the end of Stanford play? Like, what's, what is this? How do you read this? With Bailey jumping in the portal and sort of what it means for Stanford as we had Frank Reich, Andrew Luck press conference yesterday as well.
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Tom Fernelli
I think it means somebody's like, oh, we have an opportunity and we could throw money at this guy, see if he wants to come. And I think that's exactly what's happened. And I'm just, I mean, I get it. He's a good player. And I also understand on his side of it, with everything that's going on in that program, like you, you have a limited amount of time at the NFL level or at the college level before you have to move on, or at least you used to, like, maybe he feels like he needs. This isn't a very good situation for him to improve his stock and his NFL future and he feels like he needs to go somewhere where he'll be able to do so because it's like we talked about it last week or Monday, Frank Wright coming in. It's as good as you can get right now. But it's like written in the thing. This is only a temporary solution. He's not going to be there long term. And as I said on the show, how many of the guys in that locker room are going to really feel bought in when they know that the guy telling them what to do is not going to be there long term? So I, I'm not shocked by this. I'm not shocked that he's going to be getting attention. The only shock I can imagine is going from Stanford, Texas Tech. That is a culture shock, I believe, for David Bailey if he ends up.
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Danny Cannell
Doing that shows the desire Texas Tech has to, to get the top players and they've got the deep pockets to do so. I do think it's a unique player that decides to go to Stanford, especially when you already know some players are getting a lot more. There's freedom of movement at other places. It's just, it's a unique experience. I think the changeover at head coach, probably back to back three win seasons, that takes its toll and it gets pretty enticing to be a part of a winner, you know, and as much as you want to sell him on, hey, Frank Reich's going to help us get this thing turned around. The reality is the Stanford team we don't think is going to be very good. So whether it's money or whether it's. He wants to be a winner and play somewhere we can actually play for a chance at the play playoff or a conference championship or both, which are probably all of that makes a lot of places attractive, which is why when we talked about the Stanford job, I think it's one of the harder jobs in all of college football with some of the restrictions. I mean, game day atmosphere is awful. It is dead. Like, it's just, it's a really, really tough place to win and I'm not surprised at all. If you have the opportunity and you kind of get a head start on everybody else that's about to come in, you become very attractive.
- [10:14]
Chip Patterson
That's what I was thinking is that David Bailey is being very savvy here, that he is going to make all the stops at all the places. You know, he did end up choosing Stanford over other power conference schools with better football programs when he was coming out of modern day a couple years ago. But you know, he's, he is, to Tom's point, probably all eyes on what's going to be the best season for him for before, hoping to get to the NFL and capitalize on those projections of being a, you know, second, third round pick as an edge rusher. So David Bailey, the, the, the bell of the ball as we sit here, maybe not the same, at least in terms of demand and the quality there as we get with through Pine. My, oh my, the things that he has seen, the places that he has been. Drew Pine gonna land somewhere.
- [11:12]
Tom Fernelli
A desk job. I would, I don't know, man. Like this is. He's been there. I did the tweet. I mean like Carson, he came, he's from the 2020 recruiting class. And it's crazy to me still that we have those kids playing like Carson Beck is one of them. So it's not like, you know, he's the only one left. But you look at some of the other names that were in that class, like C.J. stroud, you know, Brian Brzee. There are other guys who are like closing in on their second NFL contract are, you know, going. And he was in the same recruitment. I don't know. I think wherever he ends up, unless he goes down to like a G5 kind of level, he's probably just going to be an experienced backup. And you know, maybe there's a decent check in being an experienced backup at some of these P4 schools that he's just trying to take advantage of because like he knows his future is probably not playing quarterback in the NFL.
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Danny Cannell
This is, I mean, I don't think he's going to go anywhere and be. Make an impact. I think it's a name because he was a high recruit. He's played at some high profile profile programs a long time. Like when we started this pay for play and portal movement, I thought that we would kind of organically develop sort of a minor league type of feel where you have players that are sent up, that are sent down, they're kind of bouncing around. And this to me is like a minor league baseball player that is Bouncing around from program to program, and he's trying to find out his way, and you're just not good enough for the big leagues. And the good thing is the minor leagues, you don't get to choose. A lot of times you get cut, you get sent away. Like, at least he's getting to choose where he can go. He's getting opportunities. But the thing that kind of bums me out, and I don't know how you guys feel about it. Everybody's entitled their own way of doing things. But this is completely different than the college experience that any one of us experience. And I'm just talking about the college experience, which is supposed to be for the best years of your life, right? You go in, you join a fraternity, you play on a sports team. I don't know, a club, whatever's your thing. Maybe it's where you live, you meet people and you kind of grow together, and you're there for four years, you make friendships for life. You know, guys that are in your wedding and guys that you keep in touch with, and you go back to class reunions. That is not the existence of a lot of these players. Now you can say, well, financially, they're set up and they are. So from that perspective, it is. It is different. But I got buddies of mine that signed coming out of high school to play baseball, didn't make it. And they're always like, man, I wish I had gone to college and experienced college. All these guys are missing out, and again, it's their right to do it. You don't want to legislate whether they can or can't do that, but it's just different. And I think we're starting to see. We've seen journeyman quarterbacks already. I think this is like a journeyman quarterback minor leaguer.
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Chip Patterson
I. I think quarterback's one of the only positions where this could happen, though, right? Where there's at least enough demand to be able to. This will be Drew Pine's fourth school. This will. Like, he has been already at, what, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Missouri, and now he will land somewhere else. And to your point, you're not. You're not forming those same social relationships, those same personal relationships along the way. Maybe that's all happening early on with quarterbacks, where quarterbacks, just because they're kind of loners and going through all the. The private coaching, it's just not. It's not exactly the same as even the AAU style that comes with other sports. But, man, I. I hear you on the. On the. On the personal side of that, I can't speak to it as a former quarterback, you know, from those glory days.
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Danny Cannell
But even from a college experience, yeah, some people transfer out and some people leave or they go home and they go to juke. Whatever it is. Not everyone has the exact same life experience, but I just. I know what I got to experience playing four years in one place, and it was pretty special. And I don't know if these. Maybe you get. Develop more relationships and you get. Maybe all your groomsmen are one from each school. I don't know how it works, but it's just different.
- [15:07]
Tom Fernelli
Maybe he's on, like, a nationwide frat party tour. Maybe he's doing all these things and that's all he's doing. He's just going from frat to frat at different schools. He's like, all right, I want to see what else is out there. I've been to Missouri. I've been to Arizona State. I've been to Notre Dame, the frat house king of the country.
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Chip Patterson
That smells like a narc. I don't know if we can let him into the house. It sounds like somebody who's just collecting. He's just collecting dirt on people. He's got to keep it moving.
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Danny Cannell
And you said, I don't. I don't. Because we talk about quarterbacks so much. We could have to research, but I would say two schools, a lot of guys are at two, right?
- [15:42]
Chip Patterson
Three.
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Danny Cannell
There's a few, but not as many as quarterbacks. But I bet there's some position players that are out there that are going to. I know in basketball there's a ton of movement, right? Basketball, there's good players that are around, you know, played three, four, three schools now, so we'll have to see.
- [15:56]
Chip Patterson
I was thinking offensive line, defensive line, secondary, I guess. It's really tough to be able to land as a new face a couple years into your college career at one of these programs and be able to be like, oh, yeah, and now I'm at the top of the depth chart. Now I'm jumping in, and I'm going to be totally comfortable and 100% understand what my coaches are telling me when they're trying to describe what I need to go do out there. It's just. It's. It seems a lot. You. I think you still have continuity for the most part at some of those other position groups on the field. All right, coming up on the other side, an annual tradition here on the COVID 3 podcast, we go to look at some teams that fell short of expectations last year, and we see it's a Turnaround ahead in 2025. Turnaround teams and more Labor Day Savings.
- [16:55]
Danny Cannell
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- [17:12]
Chip Patterson
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Chip Patterson
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Tom Fernelli
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- [17:56]
Chip Patterson
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast and then and Patrick jumps in. And then there's basketball players who transfer four times, but only between two school schools. What's our Michi Johnson, right?
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Tom Fernelli
Yeah, yeah.
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Danny Cannell
Going back. South Carolina, is it?
- [18:10]
Chip Patterson
South Carolina, Ohio State, Ohio State, South Carolina. The old boomerang transfer.
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Tom Fernelli
I know one player who will be at his fourth school in four years next year.
- [18:20]
Chip Patterson
Who? Johnson?
- [18:21]
Tom Fernelli
No, Trey White. Illinois. He started at usc, was there for a year, transferred to Louisville, played there for a year, transferred to Illinois, played there for a year. Now he's back in the portal. And what's funny is he started at all three schools and he's still transferring after every season.
- [18:36]
Chip Patterson
Wow. Wow, wow, wow, wow. All right, turnaround teams. An annual topic for us to look at squads that might have fallen short of expectations. We'll take this conference by conference. We had a couple nominations as we prepared for the show. Obviously the tailgate. Always free to weigh in as well. I wanted to begin in the Big Ten with a question about Jonathan Smith and the Michigan State Spartans. Now, they did not make the postseason last year. 5 and 7 overall, 3 and 6 in conference play. They had a couple cracks at some of the best teams in the country. We were not able to log a win. They were not able to get it done on the road. Do we see a bounce back for Michigan State in 2025?
- [19:19]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I just did. Our Big Ten win total posts for the website last week and I think theirs is at five and a half and I had them coming in at 5 and 7. But I, I do think there's wiggle room depending on Aiden Giles. I, I think if Aiden Giles takes a step forward in his development, this is a team that you look at that schedule, there are winnable games. It's just a lot of their more coin flippy games as you could see are on the road like Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa. You would much rather have those games at home and get Penn State and Michigan on the road because you're probably losing those two anyway. So I think it depends how you want to define turnaround. Like can this team get back to a bowl? Yeah. Do I think they're going to be competing at the top of the league for like a playoff berth or a major bowl game? Probably not. But I, I do think that they have the possibility to do so simply because of the talent of the quarterback who hasn't quite developed into it yet.
- [20:15]
Danny Cannell
I think the one reason this jumps out to me as a possible candidate is year two of the head coach. Like that's always when you kind of first year is a little bit of a whirlwind. You got to weed out some of the guys that aren't really buying into what you're selling so they'll transfer out. You got to get your recruits in there and that kind of takes some time. So now you can kind of assess your roster. Your, your roster from last year, your needs, you can dress those specifically now that you have a better feel for what's going on. So that was one reason for me is that I do think in that second year you really hope that you get that step forward. Now what does the step forward look like versus realistic goals? And I think this is where this is kind of different than the. When we do coaches on the hot seat or and we'll. Some of these coaches we already did for coaches on the hot seat or one year away. Clearly Jonathan Smith isn't there. But I think that's the hope is that you see some progress where you do go above your expectations and that you do get some of these coin flippy games again because you're more familiar. And when you said Aiden Child's development, it's pretty simple. Just stop throwing it to the other team. I mean he was a little bit of a turnover machine last year, just way too loose with the football, which sometimes happens being on a bad team or you start pressing. But there were some games that were winnable for them that he cost them some games. So if he can just stop trying to do too much, I think they could take that big step forward and like agreed with Tom not huge step isn't 10 wins. Big step is seven wins. You know, that's a really step in the right direction.
- [21:40]
Tom Fernelli
Another area for optimism is like if you look at Bill Connolly's returning production rankings, Michigan State is 30th overall but they're 17th on offense. So when you align that with what you were just saying, Danny of Jonathan Smith, who is an offensive minded head coach coming in for his second year and he's got most of his offense returning, it is reasonable to think that this offense could improve and maybe help overcome some of its problems on defense.
- [22:05]
Chip Patterson
And last year your defense loses its two best defensive linemen to the portal after the coaching change. A few other key players as well. Roster was decimated and you know, year two Jonathan Smith, year two Joe Rossi, right When Joe Rossi was at Minnesota, we looked at him as a plus value defensive coordinator. Obviously the talent of that group took a huge hit. But can we see that group improve there as well? All right, well let's turn our attention to Luke Fickle and the Wisconsin Badgers. We talked about coaches under pressure. The Badgers very clearly falling short of expectations in a major way last year. This is a program that got used to competing for division and conference titles. Went 3 and 6 in conference play, 5 and 7 overall. And not just that they finished the season on a five game losing streak. Bottom fell out now in that if you want to talk about like quality of play on the chart, they gave Oregon about all the Ducks could handle there on a night game in November. But they come up just short in that one, failing to make the postseason and then not being able to land the plane after that. Where's, where's the hope for Wisconsin turning things around in 25?
- [23:24]
Danny Cannell
See this one I feel, and this is again kind of what we addressed and when we're talking about coaches, you better hope it's a turnaround season. And what does that turnaround look like? I think the signs for optimism back to back years, they've either missed on quarterbacks or had injured quarterbacks in both. In a lot of circumstances the fit with the offensive coordinator didn't seem to fit. So you go get Jeff Grimes. Hopefully there's more continuity between what Grimes wants to do and what Fickle wants to accomplish. So I think you're, you've seen some necessary changes that had to be made. But Billy Edwards has to be better. And I think this team is close, but the schedule is brutal. This is one where, you know how many wins forward is a huge turnaround. It may not look that bad, but the team might be a lot better and I think will be better.
- [24:13]
Tom Fernelli
Look at that schedule. Here's your road slate. All right, for those of you who are listening on audio only, Wisconsin will be on the road to play Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Indiana, who probably won't be as good as last year, but I don't think is going to stink all of a sudden. Then you get your rivalry game against Minnesota on the road. Then you get home games against Ohio State, Illinois, who won 10 games last year, Iowa, Washington. Like, I think Wisconsin could be a better football team in 2025 and I don't make a damn bit of difference in their record because I, I look at it, I, I think Billy Edwards, he, he was good at Maryland. Like, I'm not going to call him great, but he was Jag Plussy. And I think that that is an upgrade over what after you lost Tyler Van Dyke last year. I think that off the field there's probably going to be more alignment. I think that's a nice way to put it because, you know, you've changed offensive coordinators and I think that, that you know, people will be pull, pulling in the same direction and I think that will help because I do think that played a large role in the way that season finished last year. Like there was just people going different ways and it all showed up in the results on the field. So I think the situation will be better. I think the schedule will make it meaningless anyway. Like this is a 5 and 7 team. If you look at that schedule, it's hard to find six wins there. They've got again, Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon are all on the schedule, but hey, at least you don't have to play Penn State.
- [25:36]
Chip Patterson
Billy Edwards revenge game gotta be a win and you gotta beat Iowa. You gotta enter that second half of the schedule with four banked and then hope you can go two and four in the back half.
- [25:50]
Danny Cannell
Quietly too. They've got the 13th best transfer portal class, you know, led by Billy Edwards. But they have seven four stars, 11 three stars. I think that's really solid for Wisconsin. So maybe there's a little bit of a talent upgrade, but you're going to be shorthanded against the likes of Bama, Michigan, Ohio State, or like those, your four stars and your few three stars gonna have to play their tails off.
- [26:12]
Tom Fernelli
Sorry to the folks at 247 sports. But the giant flaw of the Transporter rankings is they only rank who you brought in. Look at how many players Wisconsin lost. Like, yeah, they've brought in a ton of players, but they also lost a ton of players. Like, it is a complete roster overhaul for a lot of positions. So it might be for the better. But we've seen like, when you live in the portal like that, it's very volatile what kind of results you can get. Like, unless you hit on everything, things could go really poorly.
- [26:40]
Danny Cannell
Luke's just trying to hype up Kurt Neal going to Illinois from Wisconsin.
- [26:44]
Tom Fernelli
Illinois pretty much got their entire defensive line from last year.
- [26:48]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [26:48]
Chip Patterson
Oh, got all of Wisconsin's defensive line from last year.
- [26:51]
Tom Fernelli
I think they got like two starters from their defensive line. But I just, I'm saying it's not that. It's just they lost a ton and they replaced a ton.
- [26:59]
Chip Patterson
The Luke Fickle was among the best coaches in another system. This is going to be a big test of evaluation. You know, being able to. If you lost these players, are you going to be able to go and find replacements? Are you going to be able to get the right fit? The big test of Luke Fickle and that coaching staff. All right, they got at least one more. How about the Maryland Terrapins? And we talked about this a little bit with the Mike Loxley situation. Maryland going 1 in 8 in conference play a year ago, 4 and 8 overall. Like Wisconsin, they finished the season on a five game losing streak. Do we see a step forward for the Terps?
- [27:43]
Tom Fernelli
Well, the good news is, according to Kevin Willard, they are putting the resources into the football. I. I'm not overly confident about the Terps this year because we just mentioned Billy Edwards went to Wisconsin and I thought Billy Edwards was one of the few positives about that Maryland team that was at least poised to return. Like Felton left, he's off to the NFL. A lot of their key guys have moved on. Roman Hemby, I believe, transferred. I can't remember off the top of my head, but I believe that's the case. So a lot of their productive guys are gone as far as returning production. They are ranked 85th in Connolly's rankings. We don't know who their starting quarterback is yet. And if you look at their schedule, it's not terrible. So, like, there is reason to think that if things click, they can get it going. They're not playing Ohio State, they're not playing Penn State, they're not playing Oregon. They do get Michigan, but they get Michigan at home at least. So like, there's a chance this team can get to a bowl, which I think coming off of a 4 and 8 record last year and 1 and 8 in conference, I think that would be qualifying as a turnaround. It would be getting you back to your baseline of where you had been under Mike Loxley. So. Yes, it's just I wouldn't expect. If I'm 6 and 6 and I'm a Terps fan, I'm.
- [28:55]
Chip Patterson
Turnaround.
- [28:56]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. I'm thrilled with that season. Based on what I saw last year and what I'm expecting this year.
- [29:02]
Danny Cannell
I'm a little worried about the Terps, so I don't have as much hope for the turnaround. You got to start off 3, 0, which I think they should, like you said. And then kind of both these teams, like, that could be a critical matchup for both of them for Maryland or Wisconsin, like one of those kind of sets the stone of the rest of the season. Like your first Big Ten matchup. That'll be. That'll be huge. Kind of. And then you got to catch some magic, catch momentum and, you know, try to knock off a couple of those home games. Notre Dame schedule's manageable, though.
- [29:35]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. I was gonna say Notre Dame says, oh, no. When they see NIU Northern Illinois in week two, watch out. Thomas Hammock is a week two killer.
- [29:45]
Tom Fernelli
That's the Mountain west of Northern Illinois Huskies. Are they in the Mac for one more year? Is that right away? I can't remember.
- [29:51]
Chip Patterson
I think it's at least one more year. I'm pretty sure we've got them in because the Mountain west doesn't do its full realignment for this. Yeah. Until after this season. So I've found myself unnecessarily invested in this Maryland football season. We just, We've. We've stumbled into talking about Maryland a few times here in the last month, month and a half. I was looking for quarterback battles to write about in spring practice and. And Maryland was one that came up replacing Billy Edwards. They had the whole Kevin Willard, Mike Loxley back and forth. Don't air the dirty laundry. Football gets all the love. Nobody pays for my hotel room in New York City. They are excited about UCLA transfer Justin Martin and the. The battle. As I saw it, I was like, justin Martin is what you know, and you've got a really promising prospect in, you know, sort of nearby recruit Malik Washington. And I was trying to take the temperature of who it would end up being. Justin Martin made available in all the Sprint pre spring availabilities as one of the few players who is speaking for the program. When you are transferring into the program and when you are sent to be the mouthpiece of the program, they are, they are not only excited about that, but they are expecting that the 6 foot 4, 220 pound redshirt sophomore is going to be able to step in and be ready to rock. So I think Maryland's success, a lot of it's going to hinge on, you know, him being able to carry forward what we saw with Talia, what we saw Billy Edwards. We're just being able to be successful within the structure of that offense which now includes Pep Hamilton as part of the brain trust. So I'm. Because I'm unnecessarily invested and we all have our biases. Spent too much damn time looking at stuff about this team for them not to be good. Come on, Terps, let's go. A big old turtle. All right, coming up on the other side, we continue. Oh, any other Big Ten teams that we should keep an eye on?
- [31:43]
Tom Fernelli
I mean I, Northwestern maybe like Purdue, maybe. It's just there's so many factors that we don't know. Like Purdue, I think in Barry Autumn's first year you're just trying to set a foundation. Northwestern, they did get Preston Stone out of the transfer portal at quarterback, which I think gives them a level of competence at that position that they just did not have last year. So that could lead to some better things. But still, I don't, I don't expect him to be quite what we consider turnaround.
- [32:12]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I, I, I think it's not just had a bad record last year. Are they a turnaround team? I think it needs to be fell short of expectations and also there is a path or there is reason to believe that you might be able to be coming back. All right. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the southeastern Conference, the ACC, the Big 12 and the Group 5 and more next.
- [32:39]
Tom Fernelli
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Danny Cannell
Popsicles, sprinklers, a cool breeze. Talk about refreshing.
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You know what else is refreshing this summer?
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A brand new phone with Verizon. Yep.
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- [33:39]
Chip Patterson
What?
- [33:40]
Tom Fernelli
I had my heart broken this weekend. That song, Lynn hates it. Why?
- [33:47]
Chip Patterson
I don't know.
- [33:48]
Tom Fernelli
She says whenever.
- [33:49]
Danny Cannell
Literally was typing something in the chat about how much I love that song because I'm a Paramount guy and I love it, but I literally was typing something in our private chat.
- [33:59]
Tom Fernelli
She was. She was saying that she can't wait until the Masters is over so she doesn't have to hear that damn song anymore.
- [34:08]
Danny Cannell
It's the first year they've used it, right? Yes. I'm cool with the little like piano and a little Jim Nant saying, like just giving a little preview. That's cool with me. You know.
- [34:21]
Chip Patterson
I. Have you seen all the re. Have you seen all of the RE edits?
- [34:24]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, yeah. Well, that one's for Georgia, right? Georgia. That one. Yeah. Yeah. And then they put the original, right?
- [34:32]
Chip Patterson
They put. They put absurd stuff behind it. I mean, in anything from the ludicrous discography, you know, set it to the background. It's. We can go a lot of different ways with that one. Grant in. Or Garrett. Excuse me, Garrett in the tailgate says Indiana is going to turn around, just not in the right direction. I will say April 2 is not when I'm calling my shot of which team is gonna have the bottom fallout. Just not my disposition. Well, talk to me and win total season when we need to make some hard stances. But on April 2, I'm not ready to be like, oh, yeah, I hope you had fun last year because this year's gonna suck. All right, we turn our attention to the sec where you want to talk about pressure packed expectations. We keep saying 2025 is the season. 2025 is the season. Don't worry about those results because we're loading up. We're going into the portal. This is when we're going to have everything click and hit at the right time. Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze is out here at press availability. He's. He's doing the. I'm not saying. But I'm saying our wide receiver room might be as good as those ones with DK Metcalf as those ones. We were loaded up with multiple NFL players And look, I agree with you Hugh. There's a lot of talent in that Auburn room. But will it be enough to improve on what was a 2 and 6 conference showing 5 and 7 overall? You got a handful of cracks at some of the best teams in the country and more often than not you are coming up short, sometimes just short, but still not being able to push it over to the winning side to even make a bowl game, much less flirt with the winning record in conference play. We buying into Jackson Arnold. We buy it into Auburn, turn around, return to form season in 2025.
- [36:26]
Tom Fernelli
I am still a Jackson Arnold believer. Okay. I am firmly in the camp that Jackson Arnold is an improvement over what they had at quarterback the last couple of years. And I believe Hugh Freeze has shown in his career he can get a lot out of some pretty average talented guys at that position. And I think Jackson Arnold is better than average talent at that position. But Auburn starts the year at Baylor. I think Baylor is going to be pretty good this year. I'm higher on their quarterback. They have to go on the road for Oklahoma. Then they're on the road for Texas A and M. Then they get Georgia at home and that's a three game stretch. That's not during the season. That's three games stretch. You get you know, Vandy and Mizzou, Arkansas on the road. Those are nice but you still get Alabama. You've got Missouri at home. I, I think they get more than two wins in the conference play this year. If I had to pick them out I'd say they get Arkansas and Kentucky and maybe Mizzou Vandy like that's but that's where we are. Like yeah, it's not exactly super confident. So they would have to sweep non con which again they're starting at Baylor which is not going to be a fun game. I don't know if they're going to win that. So I'm not going to call Auburn right now a turnaround team. Maybe after the spring Portal if things shake loose and they go on a spending spree and really upgrade at some spots I'll start listening. But right now I think you're hoping.
- [38:00]
Chip Patterson
For six and six and I would not call out. I would not call that a turnaround.
- [38:06]
Tom Fernelli
No, no.
- [38:07]
Danny Cannell
Yeah they so you said go spend some money. I mean didn't they do that this year going out and getting Eric Singleton? They've got a top 10 transfer portal class. I think this is the year that Hugh Freeze is well aware of. I got to get eight wins or I Might be, you know, shown the door. That Baylor game that you mentioned there I 1 1/2 point favorite. So that is a. You're squeezing them pretty tight in that game. That is a must win. But I also think like you said two wins. I think the Oklahoma game is gettable. Not saying they're gonna win that game, they'll be underdogs in that one. But we have no idea what the Mater and I like it. I love Mater and the combination of his offensive coordinator going to Oklahoma but that's another school that's in a, you know, precarious position this season. Texas A and M like we think they're going to be better this year. We think they're going to be good but there's a lot of toss up games in here. Here's where I think you have the best chance for it and you kind of alluded to it. Hugh Freeze offensive minded a guy, he's got a quarterback he thinks he can work with who is pretty mobile. We saw what he was able to do against Alabama when he's running around. I think they'll utilize his athleticism and you do have some weapons to work with. So I think Auburn could be that team that kind of is sparked by the offense and if their defense can get some, you know, solid play at least I think they could get to that eight so I kind of like it as a potential turnaround team. Eight wins about as much as I'm going.
- [39:32]
Tom Fernelli
I think we're going to find this off season because you mentioned it again, I will very, very loudly be in the. I do not care about where your transfer class ranks. I again, I think those rankings are meaningless for the most part.
- [39:46]
Danny Cannell
Well, but don't you think both quarterback and receiver are huge upgrades?
- [39:50]
Tom Fernelli
Yes, I think quarterback's an upgrade. Yeah, for sure. But I mean they had what's his name who's. Oh God, the kid whose name is completely escaped the wide receiver.
- [39:59]
Chip Patterson
No, Cam Coleman's still there.
- [40:00]
Tom Fernelli
That's what I'm saying. They already had Cam Coleman so I don't know if it's a huge upgrade. Like he's probably still gonna be your best receiver but.
- [40:06]
Danny Cannell
But now it might be one of the better receiving classes in the country.
- [40:09]
Chip Patterson
Right. That's. That's what Freeze is arguing is that we've added Singleton to an already talented class and that what we can do now is overwhelm opponents with our wide receivers in a way that changes the entire offense. That is. That is the argument that or that is what our Auburn friends are Telling themselves when they imagine eight, nine wins, maybe more.
- [40:27]
Tom Fernelli
But you're still playing in the sec. And you can argue that their schedule comparatively to some SEC teams really isn't that difficult. Like, you catch some breaks compared to a lot of teams, even though you're always going to have Georgia and Alabama. But remember, it's the same schedule they played last year. They just flip home and away and they still only won two games against it. So have they made enough improvements on this roster for you to believe that they're going to make a giant leap forward? I don't think they have fourth in.
- [40:55]
Danny Cannell
The SEC and returning production. So they do have some guys coming back. They're going to win the SEC from.
- [41:03]
Tom Fernelli
A 2 and 6 team in the SEC. They've got some guys coming back. Yes.
- [41:07]
Chip Patterson
All right. So one other layer to this on the transfer portal rankings is that is all relative to what was available in the transfer portal. And that's where I think that Hugh Freeze might have. I want to be careful about this, but like maybe Auburn, I don't want to put this all on Hugh because there's a lot of factors here. I think Auburn might have. Might have misplayed its hand if it thought the 2025 portal cycle was going to be a chance to dramatically upgrade the roster. That if Auburn was looking at or saving resources for the 25 portal cycle only to find that the level of talent at the very highest levels of the portal in this cycle have not been what it was in 24 and have not been what it was in 23. That that might have been a like, oh, no, we've got all this money to spend, but the quality of player is not there. That having the top transfer portal class this year might not be the same as what it was two years ago based on how many players are in there and why has that happened? We've detailed it a lot here. It's because schools are doing a better job of retaining talent. Schools. Schools have learned the best thing that we can do with our money is to be able to keep good players on the roster as opposed to trying to reboot this thing in shop. So it is possible that the whole, you know, we're ready to load up and go for it in the 25 cycle work. Now to Danny's point, when the portal opens in two weeks, if all of a sudden they start shaking the trees all across the southeast, these players start falling down and they all start landing at Auburn, well then, hey, you know, you've. You've got a. You've got a chance to change this narrative a little bit.
- [42:47]
Tom Fernelli
But then let's remember who most of the players who will be in the spring portal are. Guys who couldn't win their jobs at.
- [42:54]
Chip Patterson
Their current schools or aren't happy with money. Their money, their situation.
- [43:02]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, yeah, some. But most of the guys who become available in the spring will just be guys who couldn't win jobs.
- [43:09]
Chip Patterson
All right.
- [43:10]
Tom Fernelli
I don't suggest building your team through the spring portal. I'll just leave it at that.
- [43:14]
Chip Patterson
I, I would agree with that. There is there the idea that you are going to be able to bring in a player who will change your win total in the spring portal does not seem likely. All right. What about the Kentucky Wildcats, Tom's favorite coach, Mark Stoops? Nobody was mad when Mark stoops was making $10 million.
- [43:35]
Tom Fernelli
He was mad.
- [43:36]
Chip Patterson
Nobody was mad. One in seven in conference play. People might have been mad. I think some people were mad. One in seven in conference play. Four and eight overall. The schedule wasn't like it wasn't the toughest schedule in the sec. And yet still you're drawing just one win against conference competition. Do we, do we? See, this is one where I struggle like I threw it on there because the Kentucky program expectation is not is to be a bowl team. That is what Mark Stoops has established. I what's the path forward for Kentucky to be able to, to get back in there?
- [44:23]
Tom Fernelli
I mean your quarterback is Zach Calzada, who I don't think is going to excite any of us personally, but I think we can also argue is an upgrade over what they had at quarterback last year. And this is also a team who historically it's not really been quarterback dependent. They are, you know, the Iowa Hawkeyes of the sec, right.
- [44:43]
Chip Patterson
Run the ball, play good defense and.
- [44:46]
Tom Fernelli
That'S worked for them a lot. But I don't know if it'll work for them this year because we're staring at the schedule on the screen and you got, you know, you got Toledo in week one. That's not an easy Mac team to face. We've seen Toledo give teams problem before. You get Ole Miss in your second week of the season and then you're on the road back beat him last.
- [45:06]
Danny Cannell
Year on the road.
- [45:07]
Tom Fernelli
Touche. Good point. But then you get back to back road games with no buy in between against South Carolina and Georgia, two pretty decent teams. Then you get the buy and you come home where you're going to face Tennessee and Texas in consecutive weeks. Then you're on the road for Auburn, then you're Florida and you finish with road games at Vandy and Louisville. Like Kentucky has shocked and surprised me before but have they done enough this off season to make you think that they are going to be able to overcome a lot of those games? Like Chip, you say it's not that tough. I don't think that's very easy.
- [45:40]
Chip Patterson
I said last year it was not among the toughest. And last year we were talking about a different Florida, we were talking about a different Auburn. We were talking, you know I, I, I was, I was mostly going off last year's schedule strength, not necessarily playing it forward.
- [45:56]
Danny Cannell
You know what you would base and by the way turnaround I think is getting to the bowl, right? Like that's how we find a turnaround. Because the buy in or the reason that you would give is that Mark Stoops has turned this into a team that is perennially in bowl contention. Right. Something that you didn't say a lot. It's been a minute but I think you just have to put a faith in him and that coaching staff. I do wonder if he's lost some equity both. I know he probably has from boosters and fans but when he was getting ready to get on the plane to go to A M last year has that lost some of the all in buy in from the players and the staff and everybody the support system where that's undermined some of the goodwill that he built up over a long time of building up a program that never had as much success as he's brought.
- [46:43]
Chip Patterson
It there would be. It has got fan bases sometimes. Have a thanks for all you've done stage, you know, love you mean it stage. And I think that the Texas A M midnight flirtation. Oh no, I'm actually back. I think, I think that had an impact but we'll, we'll see. I don't, I don't see it. I think, I think Kentucky, I think when you are going through, I didn't have to do the SEC win totals. I think when you're going through and you're trying to come up with some of those spots for a team like Florida, for a team like Auburn, when you're going through and you're trying to figure out where the spots where they get wins, unfortunately I probably end up handing those games to them and not to Kentucky.
- [47:33]
Tom Fernelli
You guys are. Mark Stoops is fine, sweet 16 Mark Pope. The program is back to where we want it to be. Kentucky is back to just hey let's win a couple games until this till Midnight Madness. And then we'll forget all about you and go watch basketball.
- [47:51]
Chip Patterson
But here's the problem, Mikey. Can we get that Kentucky schedule up there again? All right, let's. Let's figure out where Midnight Madness is. Yeah, I don't know, man.
- [47:59]
Tom Fernelli
It's in October, ain't it?
- [48:01]
Danny Cannell
Well, yeah, usually October 31st isn't around.
- [48:03]
Chip Patterson
That's what I'm saying. So your home games, you could start. Oh, and three in home conference games before Midnight Madness hits.
- [48:11]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. So just as soon as they're ready to check out, like, all right, we're gonna go watch basketball now and then. Basketball team's good. And you're no longer mad about the football team. Like, by the time the end of the season comes around in end of November, we're getting ready for SEC play. Chip, come on. We just finished our Maui Invitational. Probably. I don't know where Kentucky's going to be playing their Thanksgiving this year, but things will be on their mind that aren't the football team.
- [48:34]
Chip Patterson
Okay.
- [48:35]
Danny Cannell
So you know what hurts them, too?
- [48:37]
Chip Patterson
What?
- [48:38]
Danny Cannell
And I don't want to diminish what Mark Stoops has done, but no more divisions.
- [48:43]
Chip Patterson
I know.
- [48:44]
Danny Cannell
Like, the east was down for a long time when he was, you know, I mean, he was owning Florida for a while. You know, a few years in a row was beating them while they're figuring things out. Tennessee was figuring now that Tennessee's better. Florida's on the up, Georgia's dominant. Like, it's just a lot harder.
- [49:00]
Tom Fernelli
Although, if. If Tulane wins a lot of games again, maybe. Maybe Mark will be in some hot water. Yeah.
- [49:09]
Danny Cannell
In that buyout we've always talked about, the buyout is, like, just prohibitive. Like, it's just cost prohibitive. You can't make money.
- [49:15]
Tom Fernelli
Money's not real. Yeah.
- [49:17]
Chip Patterson
It's more about desire than dollars.
- [49:20]
Tom Fernelli
I know.
- [49:21]
Chip Patterson
I did not include Mississippi State as a turnaround team.
- [49:27]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I wouldn't either.
- [49:28]
Chip Patterson
Okay.
- [49:29]
Tom Fernelli
Using Van Buren kind of.
- [49:31]
Chip Patterson
And then Oklahoma was a bowl team last year. But to turn around would indicate I'm seeing a big jump. And I, I don't. I don't see a huge jump. I think they can have another, you know, seven, eight win season, but I don't. I don't see Oklahoma this year jumping up into that 10ish win territory.
- [49:57]
Tom Fernelli
They have to get off to a very hot start. Like, they have to beat Michigan because the back half of their schedule. Like, they start with Illinois State, Michigan, Temple, Auburn, Kent State. I would hope that you're five and. Oh. Because then you get Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Mizzou, lsu. So it could be one of those things where they actually improve. But the back half of the year is so rough that the fans won't care because all they're going to remember is getting our heads caved in by these teams.
- [50:28]
Danny Cannell
Did we not. We didn't really discuss. Do we think this is a turnaround year for the sec?
- [50:34]
Chip Patterson
Bud does.
- [50:36]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah. Bud's.
- [50:36]
Danny Cannell
Because the quarterbacks returning. Quarterback play was so bad last year.
- [50:39]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [50:40]
Danny Cannell
Upgrades a lot of the schools we've talked about. Yeah.
- [50:42]
Tom Fernelli
But Bud's always been a huge SEC homer, so.
- [50:45]
Chip Patterson
No. Yes. They. I, I generally I unders that. That makes sense. That is a sensible prediction, so I can roll with it. We still got to get out there and see it, though. I've. I've seen the way that conference crumbles under pressure before, so, you know, got it. Gotta. Gotta actually see it with my eyes. I'll be late to the party on that one. Thank you very much.
- [51:08]
Tom Fernelli
They'll probably get like 14 teams in the playoff, but only two will reach the Final Four.
- [51:12]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. I mean, come on. All right. Speaking of Bud being a huge SEC homer, his least favorite team, Florida State, never wanted to talk about him last year. Never wanted to talk about him. Went 2 and 10. Danny. I think that a. I think steps forward are undeniable. So what is the turnaround? What. What do you think this ultimately ends up looking like for the Seminoles?
- [51:40]
Danny Cannell
So I think the changes that were made on the staff, both sides were necessary. I do the, the Gus Malzon thing. It's going to be. How is he paired with a quarterback that appears to be a perfect fits for. For his system And Thomas Castellanos, like, he can run, he can throw better than a lot of guys that Gus won with. How does that work? But I've also seen a lot of quarterbacks that were supposed to be great with Gus not go great, you know, like, so we've seen that. So that one. That to me has to be the pairing. I think also Florida State has to return to physicality, like running the football, which is one of the reasons I think Gus is a good fit. Because everywhere he's been, he's had a top 10 brushing offense. And I think that's a welcome trend for Mike Norvell and this offensive staff to get there. I just. What I wonder is where this roster is that used to be able to just show up in the ACC and push around opponents. Defensively, they gave up way too many big plays. Last year, I do think the quit factor was real. So I think they, you know, strong start is relative. I think if they play Bama close, that is a good win for them mentally and then they can kind of get back on track, hopefully. And then you get Miami where it becomes, all right, got to play that game tough or win that one at home. And if you can get through that first five weeks, you know, three and two with close games or four and one with a great win and one of those, then I think you're well on your way to building up some confidence. But if you're, you know, three and two and it's not great, then I get kind of worried about the back end of the schedule.
- [53:22]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I, I think that the offense will be fine for the most part. I'm with you, Dan. I think the defensive side of the ball is really what's going to prove to be the difference for Florida State between last year and this year. And you mentioned it, like at the end of last season they did quit. And I think that's part of the concerns when you build through the portal because, like, go back thousands of years when, you know, like mercenaries, like armies that were hired by, you know, whatever, to fight battles. When the battle was going poorly, they ran because, hell, your job is literally to fight wars. If you're dead, you can't get paid anymore. So you see the same thing when you put together a team of mercenaries. When things aren't going well, they're not going to give you their best effort. They're just going to be like, all right, I've got nothing. I'm not invested here. This means nothing to me. So I, I, I would hope that just in that locker room with the new coaching staff in place that you can get those guys rallied on that side of the ball. Because I think defense, like, obviously talent is huge for defense. And I think like Bud's talked about it, there's a big correlation between five star, four star ratings and how good a defense is. But also just mentally, like being bought in and having the confidence is so big on that side of the ball, thinking you can get those stops. And I just don't think Florida State, like, after the first couple games, you know, you lose that game to Georgia Tech, then you come back and you lose to B.C. and I think that they were just like, holy crap, we've already failed. And it just completely pervaded through that locker room for the rest of the year. And I think that, like you said, it's important, like they, they can't get their skulls caved in by Alabama. Even if you lose that game, I think it's important that you're competitive in that game. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see a game plan that's like we're going to give the ball to Casianos 25 times and try to shorten the overall possessions here just to keep it close at a minimum. But I also think they could win that game if things go the right way. So I think there's a turnaround. I. The question is, how big of a turnaround? Like, are we looking at this team as suddenly one we think will be competing for an ACC title again, or are we just trying to get back to 7, 8 wins?
- [55:22]
Chip Patterson
So my friend Joe Gilio tried to make the argument for me that Florida State Plus 1700 was a flyer for the ACC championship.
- [55:34]
Danny Cannell
I like, I like your guy.
- [55:35]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, I don't know. I don't know.
- [55:38]
Chip Patterson
2 and 10 to 10 and 2. I don't know if we went 12.
- [55:41]
Tom Fernelli
And oh to 2 and 10. Odds on that were just as high, probably higher.
- [55:51]
Danny Cannell
You're probably better off taking a Thomas Castellano's Heisman ticket. What is that? Probably 30 to 1.
- [55:56]
Chip Patterson
Well, the acc, my, my response was that the ACC championship ticket, if you actually talk me into it, means that we ignore Alabama and Florida, means all they got to do is take care of business against conference competition to at least get to the ACC championship game. But are they going to be able to do that when they're going to be, you know, underdogs in a couple conference games? Which, to your point, Danny, it's not something that Florida State is used to at all. All right, Danny, you mentioned the North Carolina Tar heels. Tar Heels, six and seven last year. Mr. Six Rings showing up. You got you. You see the path for a, see a path for a big improvement. You think, I mean, turn around to like, winning as much as $10 million coaches win? What's, what's, what does this look like?
- [56:43]
Danny Cannell
We do have one of the best coaches of all time that is roaming the sidelines there in Chapel Hill. I know he's never been there. That's the buy in that. He's brought a staff in there. He's kept some continuity on the offense. He's bringing in guys, you know, from that he has relationships with. And I think the difference in college and pros are the guys that are there want to play for Bill Belichick. I don't think that's always the case in the NFL. Guys don't love the Patriot way. I do think those players that showed up that either, you know, took their name out of the portal or that are signing up to play with Belichick, like I think he'll maximize what he's got out there and I do think his mind will put some offensive coordinators in a blender and more importantly some. Some opposing quarterbacks in a blender. So I think it's a buy in into Belichick. Now the roster I don't like. Where are the stars going to come from? It's hard to see who is playing quarterback. Still uncertain. But this is me more of a play on Bill Belichick that he is going to work.
- [57:44]
Tom Fernelli
I think that you mentioned it with the coaching. Like when you're competing at the top of the sport for national titles, coaching matters. But talent trumps all.
- [57:53]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [57:53]
Tom Fernelli
Once you get past that tier, and I think North Carolina is firmly in that tier, coaching can make a huge difference for a team that has just average talent. And like you said, Danny, I think they've got a pretty good football coach. So when you look at this team, I think that alone gives you reason to be optimistic that they will be competitive in winning some of these games that maybe they didn't win last year or they struggled to finish off. They'll probably be more competent football team. But this is a team that went six and seven last year. So for me to consider them a turnaround, like are they going to get back to eight or nine wins? Are they going to be kind of in the ACC race? Even if we're looking at them and never saying, well, they're actually a real threat to win the league. I don't know if I would go that far. I think that first game against tcu, which will have a lot of eyeballs on it for obvious reasons, I think that'll give us a good hint to what this team has the possibility to be. But I think this is like an 8, 7 win team. So does that count as a turnaround? Do you not?
- [58:53]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, it's not a turnaround, but I think it's. What's their win total? Seven and a half.
- [58:57]
Chip Patterson
Seven and a half. I've got them eight and four. Like when I had to, when I had to put my, my pen to paper and just give everything as a win or a loss. I've got TCU as a loss. I think that that team is ahead of North Carolina right now. Ucf, I've actually got that as a win. I think Scott Frost has taken over A roster that's gutted. I think UCF is going to be kind of one of those bottom three, bottom four teams in the Big 12, though, you know, who knows what that means? Favorable conference draw. Obviously you're going to end up losing to Clemson, losing a couple of coin flips along the way, but that there is not a game in the second half of that schedule where North Carolina is going to be overwhelmed by the talent of the opposition. So as long as they play Miami.
- [59:36]
Danny Cannell
Don'T play Florida State, don't, you know, don't play.
- [59:39]
Chip Patterson
Don't play smu, don't play Louisville.
- [59:42]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [59:43]
Chip Patterson
So there, there is everything there to be able to have a, a wind total that suggests that you are at least meeting expectations. But I, I don't see a huge jump forward until the roster gets at least another cycle of recruiting along the way. I know in the tailgate y' all were asking for a little bit of G5 love. We'll, we'll maybe throw that in as part of Thursday's mailbag episode. I'll consider it a mailbag question. But before we get out of here, let's make sure we turn our attention to the conference where everything is a turnaround or a fall down or a collapse or a bounce back. That's right, it is the Big 12, where Colorado was 4 and 8 one year, then they go nine wins. The very next year where Utah was at the top of the league, then they fall to the bottom of the league. Oklahoma State plays for the conference title, falls to the bottom. Bottom of the league. What's top? It's bottom. What's left is right. Let's begin with Utah. We see a bounce back for, for the Utes this year.
- [60:45]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I, I trust in that coaching staff and I think that having some certainty at the quarterback spot, bringing in Devin Dampier, bringing in the new offensive coordinator back, I, I expect that Utah, just based on their track record and now having a quarterback who I like a lot in an offense that I thought was really fun and interesting last year, New Mexico coming with him, I, I would expect Utah gets back into that Big 12 title race. Yes.
- [61:12]
Danny Cannell
I, I don't want to be. I think we even said this last year, it felt like they were almost hijacked by Cam Rising the last couple of years, his status, injuries, whether he was going to play or not. And then when he is, you know, out there, it just, it was a kind of a distraction for him. Now that that's gone, I think they will get stability and he's a great player. I just think that stability will, will help them a tremendous amount. And I. This is again, kind of like the Mark Stoops. Kyle Whittingham is one of the better coaches in this conference, if not the country. You just kind of trust his process that'll be able to get it done.
- [61:44]
Tom Fernelli
The concern though, like, you look at that schedule, like a lot of the teams that were the better teams in the league last year are on the schedule, like Arizona State, byu, Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State. Kansas played really well. At the end of the year, you've got them on the road. You're getting Texas Tech, who a lot of people have high hopes for going in this year because of their transfer class. Like the schedule will not be easy. You start with UCLA on the road, but I just, I have faith in this program to think that they will be a nine kind of win team.
- [62:11]
Chip Patterson
Man, nine win would be a. Nine wins against that schedule would be a very, very strong season for Kyle Whittingham along the way. What about Oklahoma State? 09 in conference play. 3, 9 overall.
- [62:30]
Tom Fernelli
I think we are closer to the end of Mike Gundy than we are the top, the peak. I don't expect Oklahoma State to have much of a bounce back. I don't know if it'll be as bad as it was last year, but I don't think it's going to be great.
- [62:45]
Chip Patterson
Rebooting the staff.
- [62:49]
Tom Fernelli
We'll see.
- [62:50]
Danny Cannell
I, I get a lot of these. You just have to sell. It's the Big 12, you know, like, hey, anything could happen. But I am, I'm thinking the exact same thoughts that Tom is about what this means for Mike Gundy. Last year he's asked about retirement. I know he doesn't want to, but I just think it could get uncomfortable.
- [63:09]
Chip Patterson
Okay. What about Houston?
- [63:11]
Tom Fernelli
Houston? I'm exceptionally high on blind.
- [63:14]
Chip Patterson
Blindly. Not blindly. I mean, you know, you, you, you are upgrading at the quarterback position.
- [63:21]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, I don't know if it's a huge upgrade, but it is an upgrade, I think in some areas. But you've got a lot of players coming back. And more than anything, I'm just a Willie Fritz believer. And we have seen like typically his teams kind of like make a leap. Not always in the second year, but he came in, it was a tough situation. They go 4 and 8, 3 and 6 in the league. I just think Willie Fritz is a good enough coach to where I'm expecting there to be improvement in year two, regardless of everything else, regardless of schedule, regardless of roster. I think you give that guy going into a second season, you're going to see a better football team. Team and I think we're going to see a better football team. I think Houston could be one of those like everybody's a dark horse in the Big 12, but I think Houston could legitimately be a dark horse in this conference to be there in the Big 12 championship at the end.
- [64:08]
Danny Cannell
Same thing we talked about. Jonathan Smith, year two, Willie Fritz. I'm a big believer in what he does, what the culture that he creates that he establishes. Same exact thing. I'm a little bit. And I was all I've ever heard about Connor Wegman was what a, what a great quarterback he is, you know, and how incredible of an athlete he is at times. He's shown it. Maybe, you know, playing at a different conference will be exactly what he needs. Yeah, I think saw that with Bo Nix.
- [64:36]
Chip Patterson
I think a big, I think Big 12 defenses, it's, it's going to allow Connor Wegman to be able to be there and for Houston like much love to Z on Chris, but he was a Louisiana quarterback and they kind of had to run a Sunbelt offense to be able to get everything together. So if I think Connor Wegman's going to raise our ceiling right there. And so with that I am expecting a little bit of a bounce back. All right, Tom. Ucf.
- [65:06]
Tom Fernelli
You kind of touched on it earlier. I think if we look at the situation, obviously Gus stepping down, Scott Frost the prodigal son returning. But like there's a lot of turnover on that roster. I think that schematically while there are similarities between what Scott Frost's offense has done and Gus Melzahn's offenses, do I think that there's going to be some changes? I don't know if they're going to get everybody they need in in one off season to do it, but I like they were 2 and 7 in conference play last year and you watched them and it didn't feel like they were a bad football team. It's just it felt like they were losing football games and I think some of that was the quarterback position that did not pan out. And I think it was also like an avalanche to where once things started going poorly it just kept going. But like you look, they got blown out by Colorado. They lost to Florida by 11, but it was a one score loss to Cincinnati, a three point loss to Iowa State, a four point loss to Arizona State and then at the end of the year when things were checked out, they had a couple two score losses to West Virginia and Utah. But while there's always room to turn around in this league, I just don't know if UCF is the team I'm looking at is one that's going to be capable of doing it because there are just so many variables. And also you look at the schedule, getting North Carolina out of conference, that's tough. Like I'd rather have three really easy games out of conference to get some three wins in conference player on the road for Kansas State, Cincinnati, Baylor Tech and byu. You get Houston, who I've just espoused how much I like at home. Oklahoma State, West Virginia under Rich Rod, a Kansas team that was much better than its record suggested last season. I just. This is going to be a tough time for them to get to a bowl game, I think. Very tough.
- [66:48]
Chip Patterson
They looked good in warmups, they did not look good in performance.
- [66:52]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, yeah.
- [66:53]
Chip Patterson
You see UCF had a lot of dudes and yet when it came time to getting it done, we can fault coaching, we can fault performance, preparation, whatever. They would wow you and then you would kind of be ultimately be disappointed. And that's where I think we see a lot of the close losses come from.
- [67:12]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah, they needed about eight more RJ Harveys.
- [67:15]
Chip Patterson
Right? Right. Yeah. If you could only have eight RJ Harvey's, you'd be fine.
- [67:18]
Tom Fernelli
Yeah.
- [67:19]
Chip Patterson
Geez.
- [67:20]
Tom Fernelli
Like maybe they weren't the biggest guy on the field, but damn it, they were playing hard.
- [67:25]
Chip Patterson
Arizona.
- [67:28]
Tom Fernelli
I don't like the vibes coming out of there.
- [67:31]
Chip Patterson
No, I don't see it.
- [67:33]
Tom Fernelli
I mean, you lose Teteroa McMillan. That's like your easy button when things are going poorly. Just hit the Tetaro button and maybe he can get us out of trouble here. You don't have that. I don't know. As high as I was on Arizona a few years ago during Jet Fish's first season, I'm kind of on the opposite side of that spectrum right now.
- [67:53]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, the. When you look at the exits after Jed Fish leaves for Washington to the portal, which there were many, you got some very good players to stick around. Tedro McMillan among them. But now those players are off to the NFL defensive side of the ball as well. I mean, I just.
- [68:13]
Tom Fernelli
Where are they at production? They're pretty low. Correct. I can't find them. Maybe they're higher than I thought. Actually. Yeah, they're pretty high. They're 16th. Wow.
- [68:30]
Chip Patterson
More on offense or defense?
- [68:31]
Tom Fernelli
More on offense than defense. But they're both high on both. But I'm guessing a lot of that production is along the lines of scrimmage on the offensive line, which is not a bad thing at all. It's just offensively, I I don't know where the skill points are coming from.
- [68:49]
Chip Patterson
You think Rich Rod turns West Virginia West Virginia was 6 and 7 last year. I did not include them. The tailgate's mentioning them right now. I didn't think that. I think that Go being a bowl team is within the range of expectations for the West Virginia football program.
- [69:06]
Tom Fernelli
I I'm very excited to watch Rich Rod at West Virginia just for nostalgia purposes somewhat, but also because I think it'll be fun in genuine, in like general. But I don't think that's a turnaround team. I think that was a good team last year who's just hoping to maybe compete for the conference this year. Can can Rich get them there? I doubt it, but maybe that would be a turnaround. If they go from 6 and 7 to 10 and 2, I will say.
- [69:30]
Chip Patterson
They were a turnaround team 100%. All right, we will continue our turnaround teams discussion. You've got nominations for turnaround teams? Come bring them to the COVID 3 tailgate, where we will be live at 11am Eastern Time. Hit subscribe, turn on your notifications. You'll see when the L goes live because we love those early bird questions on a Thursday. As always, you can reach out to us individually. You can go and leave us a five star review and in that review put a question for the big old bag of mail. Thursday mailbag coming your way, 11:00am Eastern Time. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fenell. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Tom, thank you very much. Fancy a bit of cricket?
- [70:12]
Danny Cannell
Is this a hit it situation?
- [70:14]
Chip Patterson
It's whatever kind of adventure we want it to be.
- [70:17]
Tom Fernelli
No streaming on Paramount. Plus it's an all new season of adventures. We have to stop this invasion, get into this shit. This crew is a team. We are going to find our way.
- [70:26]
Chip Patterson
Out of this together.
- [70:28]
Tom Fernelli
Hang on.
- [70:30]
Danny Cannell
It's one in a thousand.
- [70:31]
Chip Patterson
We get it done right or don't blow ourselves up along the way.
- [70:34]
Danny Cannell
I like those odds. We'll just turn it off before we blow up.
- [70:37]
Tom Fernelli
Star Trek Strange new worlds. New season now streaming on Paramount plus.