← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
Turnaround Teams: Who Will Bounce Back With A Better Season In 2026? | Cover 3 College Football
01:05:32
Loading summary
Transcript369 lines
- [00:04]
Chip Patterson
Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli,
- [00:09]
Bud Elliott
Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college
- [00:14]
Chip Patterson
football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
- [00:25]
Tom Fornelli
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Canel, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and every. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the COVID 3 tailgate where they have got us locked and loaded with some good questions, comments and observations about yes, the headlines here. We've got the turnaround teams. We will be getting to a little bit. We see that whether it is Brad, whether it is Brian, whether it is BL 1632. Now you guys have some great contributions to the conversation as well. So fired up to get into that in just a little bit. One of our annual discussions here in the off season, we'll be looking at teams that were not bowling, that could be bowling, teams that were bowling that could be leveling up. And everybody, we're gonna throw a prediction down who will have the biggest single season win improvement. Yeah. Yeah, Bud. Last year. Hey, here we go, right off the top. Who knows who it was last year? Virginia, all of fbs. That's a clue.
- [01:38]
Chip Patterson
Oh, trying to think who played in these games.
- [01:43]
Tom Fornelli
Hootie Hoo. The Kennesaw State Owls, 10 to 10 and four and eight win improvement was the largest in the FBS. Host of teams got a six win improvement. Houston, North Texas, San Diego State, Southern Miss and Utah among those. We will do our prediction before we get out of here of the team that will have the single season win improvement that tops anybody else. But before we get to the on the field, look ahead to 2026. What about the continually shifting nature of, of the off field conversation? Because after the many dignitaries, college sports leaders, politicians and more have gathered for the White House roundtable. We have a pledge of a second executive order from the president. We have discussion about trying to reverse all of the legal action that got us here. I got what, what what neck, Danny, what next? What next? You know, like was it, was this an event, a discussion and then everyone goes back to, you know, their own corners and we realize the, the hard work it takes to be able to get these things through. Do you think that we get a direction coming out of this? What Next.
- [03:08]
Danny Cannell
Oh, more talks, more roundtables, more discussion. I will say the one news that I saw that came out after was the pooling of media rights was discussed in a little bit of greater detail. And it does seem like there's more of an agreement on that. That seems like something that could actually get accomplished. But as far as everybody getting up on their soapbox and kind of saying, we've got to fix this, we're, we're out of control eligibility, it's the same thing that everyone's been crying about for the past year and a half, two years. Do I expect anything to come of it that actually matters? No, not really.
- [03:51]
Chip Patterson
Same anybody else?
- [03:52]
Tom Fornelli
Okay, we'll see. So I've got like three levels to this, right? I mean, I've got just like outright jokes, you know, like, hey, you know, in Model un wouldn't it have been fun if we, like, let the politicians take over the conferences and let the conferences take over the government? What would happen then? Isn't that a fun thought experiment to go through, you know, like, sort of detailing those sorts of things? I think that there's also an observation on the lack of knowledge of what exactly is happening in college sports. I think there's a lot of assumptions about where we are, how we got here, who's to blame, who's to credit, and there seems to even be, you know, here at this roundtable a lot of confusion about where we're at.
- [04:34]
Chip Patterson
Like, confusion as to has this been
- [04:36]
Tom Fornelli
appealed or tested at the Supreme Court?
- [04:40]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, like, it got appealed all the way to the Supreme Court and lost nine. Nothing.
- [04:44]
Tom Fornelli
Nine to nothing. Yeah. Yeah.
- [04:46]
Chip Patterson
And like, are they going to appeal the settlement? No, they entered into a settlement that will not, that's not going to be appealed to by any party withstanding who matters. So, yeah, the pooling of media rights is interesting, but even if you could get the folks in the Senate, who you need to get on board for this, which I doubt, and if you look at any, like the prediction markets right now, it looks like Congress is going to flip pretty hard. Unless something weird happens. Like there's, there's gonna be a pretty, pretty big switch over here come the midterms. Not to talk politics, just, you know what people are betting right now. Why your window to get this done is.
- [05:28]
Tom Fornelli
I don't know. I'm not, I'm not checking out the prediction markets right now. My, my head's down in the chip olytics. But I'm sorry, like, I'm sitting here, I'm trying to, you know, make sure I've got my juice ratings right for the NCAA tournament. So I, I haven't seen the prediction markets, but that's an interesting. Like, it jumps. Do you think the election has a role in college sports pooling rights?
- [05:50]
Chip Patterson
Potentially, but I. So even just argue endo, they get like the Democrats and Republicans to agree that we can pass a very limited scope bill here on pooling rights. You know who you also have to get to agree? The Big Ten in the sec.
- [06:07]
Tom Fornelli
That's kind of where I'm at here. Yeah.
- [06:09]
Chip Patterson
Which really means you need to get Disney and Fox because, like, Fox owns the Big Ten, essentially, and Disney owns all of the sec. So I don't really think, you know, that that's going to happen. It felt like a really nice distraction from the other, like, larger issues that are going on, you know, domestically and globally right now.
- [06:36]
Tom Fornelli
Tom.
- [06:38]
Bud Elliott
I mean, first of all, I was devastated. I thought we would be saved on Friday and just, you know, they stayed longer than the hour. They were only supposed to be there for an hour. They stayed long. So we can't accuse anybody in that room of calling it quits early. They were in there trying their hardest, damn it, to get this done. They just couldn't get. Get there. I honestly, the funniest part of it to me was the president starting off by talking about how he doesn't want. Nobody wants to go back to not paying the players. Then within 20 seconds, he's like, but, you know, maybe we just shouldn't pay the players. Like, and then by the end of the meeting, it's like, I'm going to write an executive order that says we're no longer going to pay the players.
- [07:11]
Tom Fornelli
I liked your theater. I liked your observation that Tony Petiti was defending decondolisa Rice. Why take Stanford in conference realignment? I mean, there's a lot of, like, you know, individuals sitting next to each other, you know, some theater to it.
- [07:25]
Chip Patterson
I liked when he didn't know that one of the. One of the speaker sons played college baseball.
- [07:28]
Tom Fornelli
Oh, yes.
- [07:29]
Bud Elliott
Did you see that?
- [07:30]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, the guy, like, tossed him a softball. He's like, well, you know, my son plays D1. He's like, who's this? How would I know that?
- [07:36]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, Mr. President, I told you last
- [07:41]
Chip Patterson
week, it was a very serious meeting.
- [07:43]
Tom Fornelli
Mike Johnson's son, the speaker of the House.
- [07:46]
Chip Patterson
No, no. Some radio host.
- [07:47]
Tom Fornelli
Okay, all right.
- [07:48]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [07:49]
Danny Cannell
It was the whole toothpaste back in the tube thing just feels so out of touch, you know, like, it just feels like, where are we going? Back to you know, it just felt very out of touch when you heard those type of comments. And I just, it's not gonna happen. It's not a reality. There's also, you know, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer out there saying, you know, players are making too much money, we need to cap salaries. Urban Meyer saying, get rid of collectives. And you know, Nick Saban's talking about students and how the students have to be a priority. And then people are pointing out how much money, obscene amounts of money both those two have made, which I think deep down I think they care about the student athletes to some extent. But obviously winning was the priority at both of those schools where they've been. It's just a bad look to have them up there who are making 10 million bucks a year saying we need to cap. What the players can make just doesn't. It's a weird dynamic.
- [08:47]
Bud Elliott
I'd also say too, like, obviously there was the whole thing about no players, are there no current players, no agents, none of that stuff.
- [08:54]
Tom Fornelli
Fair criticism.
- [08:55]
Bud Elliott
The two coaches that you have are a one coach who did not coach in this era and now he's still connected to the sport. He does television, he still talks. So it's like he has somewhat of an understanding of how this is working, but he hasn't done it. So of course he's only going to speak from the spot where he used to be. And then the other coach is the guy who left once that this started happening because he was just like, I'm not enjoying this anymore. So it's like you're getting a very one sided view of what's going on. I'm sure there are plenty of coaches, like actually paying the players isn't terrible at all. We just need to figure out how to do it.
- [09:25]
Tom Fornelli
Give me the, give me a head coach who's in it right now, who has adjusted, who is embracing the modern era and saying, yes, we have to work a little bit harder with our decision making process when it comes to roster building. That having resources and being at a blue blood school is not enough. You got, you know, yeah, you got to put in a little bit of extra work. You got to deal with, with some of these decisions in terms of how much you're willing to meet and when you're willing to just let a guy walk. Like that's to me, that's what Nick Saban when, when Nick Saban is saying that, because you're right, Urban didn't have to deal with it like Saban did, wasn't it? Players walking in before the College Football Playoff asking for raises like, deep down that's got to be. The one thing that I think must have pushed him over the edge was just that whole experience of like, guys, we're trying to go make a run at a national championship and you're coming in here talking to me about, about next year, which is. I think some coaches are used to that and like found ways to be able to adapt. I feel like Saban, that was when I hear his continued conversations on the matter. It feels like that moment, those weeks of preparation for the College Football Playoff when your guys on your roster not thinking about the playoff, but they're thinking about how much you're going to pay me next year, that that kind of pushed him over the edge, I would think.
- [10:42]
Chip Patterson
I'm sure that did annoy him a lot. But, but, but not enough of, of an annoyance for Nick Saban to prevent him from advising Lane Kiffin to leave his playoff national title contending team to go to lsu.
- [10:52]
Tom Fornelli
Yes. Welcome back, Bud. Great call.
- [10:54]
Chip Patterson
Look, Nick Saban failed the NFL where the players are paid, right? He was smart enough to get out because he realized that Bama was a little bit behind. It was probably the one issue with nil and player comp that he was not ahead of the game of in his, what, almost two decades there at Alabama. I mean, like, they were so on the cutting edge of everything. Like how you play cover three and how you teach it to college kids. Like all the pattern match stuff, the strength, conditioning, roster building, stashing guy just, you know, over signing, like every little like edge he could find and just grind it and maximize efficiency. And I think he realized like, oh, shoot, we have not been ahead of this. I misread this situation. I failed the last time I dealt with players who got paid like, you know, big time money. I'm out
- [11:44]
Tom Fornelli
toothpaste in the tube. By the way, brought up another. I need to build a chapter here. Do you all remember when there was the meeting of conference commissioners, I believe, at the Biltmore in Asheville, North Carolina, and there was a long wait and Ross Dellinger wrote an amazing recap of the event which provided no news when he said, standing between the two blue capped mountains, one is the sec, the other is the big Ten and like wrote his ass off. It was a very, very well written piece that showed me how much time he spent there sitting, sitting, waiting for anything to happen. Here's. Here's the lead. You can find it. I'll you find it over at Yahoo. Here's what Ross cooked up. Oh, baby. He was in the kitchen lead of this event. Have you ever attempted to put toothpaste back into its tube? There's a way to do it, actually. You can find videos online of some folks accomplishing this feat. The videos show a person using scissors to cut the wide bottom end of the tube's plastic casing. From there, it's quite easy. You just swipe that pesky paste back into the tube, close the end with staples or glue, and voila, you've got toothpaste back into its tube. Of course, that tube is now maimed and probably not functionally useful, but, hey, you did it. Which, hell, yeah, Ross. That's exactly what trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube on nil is and would do. Get him, boy. You know what that shows me that he was in the White House media room, you know, for a long time trying to. Trying to. Trying to wait for all the proceedings to finish.
- [13:40]
Bud Elliott
There was once a time where Americans would have figured out a way to put toothpaste back in the tube. We would have invented a device that allows you to do it, but we just don't build things here anymore.
- [13:50]
Tom Fornelli
Okay, thanks, Tom. Oh, man. But, yeah, it was. I don't know. I don't know. Is a second executive order even coming?
- [14:02]
Danny Cannell
I don't know.
- [14:03]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, it's coming next week or this week now.
- [14:06]
Tom Fornelli
Okay.
- [14:06]
Bud Elliott
He said so. He's never lied to me before.
- [14:09]
Tom Fornelli
I don't know. We'll see. We'll see. Again, I think that as I. As we are pushing forward, it was a. It was a big event. It was a lot of dignitaries, a lot of discussion. I. I still think that you've got to remember that whether it's pooling media rights or any of this shifting world, the powers with the Big Ten in the sec, you know, and while they may not agree on the future of the College Football Playoff, they hurried together to distribute that white sheet. Right. The notes of reasons why we shouldn't be pooling media rights and the reasons why all these studies are a little bit off. So Big Ten in the sec still controlling the future of the sport, though certainly going to be under increased pressure as more and more members of the government try to get involved. Coming up on the other side, let's turn our attention to the field Turnaround teams for 2026. Who's going to have a better 2026 than they did in 2025. We'll get into all that and more nukes. When it comes to money, it helps to look for tools that help you learn, stay organized, and actually see progress without making things complicated. And that's where Telus comes in. Telus began as a property management app, helping owners and managers collect rent, communicate with tenants and stay organized. But Telus now goes further, helping everyone grow their money. Telus is reimagining how everyday people can grow by offering a high yield savings wallet powered by Real Estate. Inside the app is a digital wallet designed to help your money go to work for you in a way that feels approachable and clear. You can move funds in and out easily, track your daily growth, and access your money whenever you need it. There are no processing fees, no locked up funds, and no fees to open or use Telus. Plus, you can earn better rates by engaging in positive financial behaviors like like learning through Telus daily trivia or setting goals for yourself. Learn more@telusapp.com or search TELUS T E L L U S in the Apple Store or Android Store. Telus earn more daily. Telus is not a bank. Telus is not FDIC insured. You know, mental health can feel like this huge complicated thing because if you hurt your arm, you see a doctor, no problem. But finding the right therapist and suddenly it's confusing, expensive and takes forever. That's why Rula is so great. They make therapy simple, fast and affordable. They accept most major insurance plans and the average session copay is just $15. 15 bucks. That's basically lunch money. But instead of a sandwich, you're investing in your mental well being. And here's the best part. Rula isn't just about matching you with someone. Every therapist is licensed, vetted and picked for their expertise. They actually follow up to make sure you're making progress. You answer a few questions about what matters to you. Pick a time and you could be talking to a therapist as soon as the next day. No waiting, no guessing, no stress. Thousands of guys have already used Rula to finally get the care they needed. Don't keep putting it off. Go to rula.comcover and get started today. That's r u l a.com cover. Take the first step, get connected and take control of your mental health.
- [17:56]
Chip Patterson
Monster Energy Everybody knows White Monster Zero Ultra.
- [18:00]
Tom Fornelli
That's the og.
- [18:01]
Chip Patterson
It kicked off this whole zero sugar energy drink thing.
- [18:04]
Bud Elliott
But Ultra is a whole lineup now.
- [18:06]
Danny Cannell
You've got Strawberry Dreams, Blue Hawaiian Sunrise and Vice Guava.
- [18:11]
Bud Elliott
And they all bring the Monster Energy punch. So if you've been living in the white can branch out.
- [18:17]
Chip Patterson
Ultra's got a flavor for every vibe and every single one is zero.
- [18:21]
Bud Elliott
Sugar Tap the banner to learn more
- [18:27]
Tom Fornelli
back here on the COVID 3 podcast every single time about this year's we're getting ready to prepare for for going into spring practice, some position battles and then eventually once we get in out of spring practice on into summer school and more for our preparation for the 2026 season. Like to have a conversation about turnaround teams because if there is one fan, one type of fan base that is yearning for the upcoming season, it is going to be one that is looking for a better year on the field. We've split this up into a couple of conversations. Teams that did not make a bowl game last season but have the same coach. Teams that did not make a bowl game last season and have a new coach. Teams that did make a bowl game but might be poised for a jump up in a tier and then as I mentioned at the beginning of the show, our prediction for the biggest win total improvement. Tom, I'm gonna let you turn the spotlight where you would like to go first. You did write a feature on a topic similar to this over on cbsports.com I believe two weeks ago as you were going through your process. Which of these teams again teams that did not make a bowl game last season but have the same coach, which one stood out to you as ones that you were legitimately encouraged by?
- [19:43]
Bud Elliott
Well, encouraged is a strong word, but I mean one that I wrote that was not surprising or not expecting honestly to be a team that I felt kind of optimistic about heading into. And we talked about it on the show earlier. West Virginia, like this is a team that last season did not have the greatest year. They went 4 and 8. They have their same coach. But if you look at their schedule this year, like a lot of things go in their way. They get Coastal Tennessee, Martin and then a home game against Virginia in non con which you know that that could be coin flippy you know, but still it's in Morgantown. But once they get into Big 12 play and we've talked about it a million times like clearly Texas Tech has pulled away from the pack and BYU seems to be kind of doing that itself. But the rest of that league a lot of similarity. Well, Texas Tech is on the schedule, they're on the road. You're going to lose that one. But you don't have to play byu. Utah's on there, but Utah, we don't know they've lost Kyle Whittingham. Who knows what that team's going to really look like. It's just Schedule wise, there's a lot of room to maneuver and get wins here. And I think that. I don't think West Virginia is going to jump up. Like, we're going to talk about teams that, you know, like Kennesaw State that went from two to 10 wins, that's not going to be West Virginia. But I do think that you're looking at a situation where you can go from 4 and 8 to 7 and 5 and maybe even 8 and 4 if things break your way.
- [20:59]
Tom Fornelli
I like that. Do you all share that optimism?
- [21:01]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I think second year of the system under Rich Rod will help quite a bit, actually.
- [21:07]
Danny Cannell
They got Michael Hawkins, right?
- [21:10]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [21:10]
Danny Cannell
Who I think could be a really good fit in his system, what he wants to do.
- [21:14]
Chip Patterson
And remember Chuck, who is the GM of West Virginia, I believe, was at Oklahoma with Brent. So he would have seen him and been fairly familiar with him, like in practice and at least been around the kid. I generally like when a team goes and gets some quarterback they have a connection to, you know, because otherwise you wouldn't like. If you knew. If you knew about him and you didn't like him, clearly, like, you wouldn't go get him. There's some selection bias issue there, but ultimately I think that's usually a positive sign.
- [21:46]
Tom Fornelli
Our adjustments in terms of the potential of Oklahoma offense with John Matier, Joe Oklahoma offense with Michael Hawkins might lead some to believe that we are overly negative on Michael Hawkins as a player. I would say that we were overly negative on that situation for that player. Given that opponent, that if you put him with Rich Rodriguez with a some time to prepare and you're playing against that schedule that Tom just detailed, I think there's a very different ceiling. I mean, look what. Shoot. That's what. Speaking of Hawkins, I mean, UNLV is not going to be mentioned here, but Jackson Arnold, that's another player who all of a sudden you drop Jackson Arnold in the Mountain west, we might be seeing a little bit of a different Jackson Arnold. Great opportunity for Michael Hawkins, I think, in the Big 12 with West Virginia.
- [22:34]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, agreed.
- [22:36]
Tom Fornelli
Bud, where do you want to go?
- [22:37]
Chip Patterson
I. I think there's a lot of good candidates here. I think Wisconsin, honestly, like if. If you got quarterback. Right. They have probably the most drastic change in schedule difficulty as far as in their favor in all the P5 or P4. I don't think Fickle is a bad coach. Right. I. I think some of his success there at Cincinnati was probably the fact that he had like an all star staff that is now spread around college football and done extremely well. And it's. It's hard to kind of get that cast of characters all back together and build the same level of staff there at Wisconsin. Not that like it's easier to do with Cincinnati but just like I think he had lightning in a bottle but I still think he's a good football coach. And if you don't have to play an absolute murderous row schedule and you get some roster improvement I think you could see a real jump for them
- [23:27]
Danny Cannell
this year I had them on my list. They being there for the Ohio's day came it was about as bad a environment as you could be in like just people wanted Luke Fickle gone. They're chanting fire him and then that's when he obviously the athletic director stepped up. So we're going to keep him finished the season two and two. Two of those wins against top 25 opponents in Washington, Illinois. They have some young talent on the defensive side of the ball. They really started to play pretty hard for him. I think his players like playing for him and I do think the schedule, I mean the last two seasons they've had top five toughest schedule in the country. That's going to change significantly. They do have Notre Dame early which is going to be brutal. And then you mentioned the quarterback like they have had not only have they struck out on quarterback but they've also had major quarterback injuries. So if they can get the most out of this Colton Joseph from Mult Dominion and you know kind of get somebody some stability at the very least at quarterback. I think they that they were my top candidate for turnaround program.
- [24:32]
Bud Elliott
I talked about it a bit with you last week Chip. I. I definitely think that this team will go bowling this year and I think the schedule like Bud mentioned that carries a lot of weight because you're not playing Ohio State, you're not playing Michigan or Oregon although you get Penn State, you get USC and then you also have Notre Dame in your non con to start the season. So it's not like they're gonna. I am not sure if it's what I would qualify as a quote turnaround team because I'm not overly sold on the roster overhaul that they've had there this offseason. I get the upside of Colton Joseph, but he had a lot of turnover problems while playing in a lesser league. I don't know that that's just suddenly going to go away now that he's playing in the Big Ten. I know that they brought in a lot of transfers. I don't know if the roster is going to have a significant increase talent wise compared to where it was last year. So I think they're going to go bowling. I don't know if they're going to quote turn things around.
- [25:27]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, like you don't know that you're going to buy them for 27 based on record improvement which you think is mostly schedule based.
- [25:36]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, like I said going seven and five and I don't know if we would constitute that as. Wow, Luke Fickles really turned things around in Madden.
- [25:42]
Tom Fornelli
Well, I think for the purpose, I mean it's March 9th. I think for the purposes of a discussion then it's like we're looking at Wisconsin as an obvious candidate because at this point I'm entertaining a ceiling where Colton Joseph is awesome.
- [25:54]
Bud Elliott
You know that ceiling is there. Yeah.
- [25:56]
Tom Fornelli
And so like that's if these things click because I've also got some, some teams on here where I'm not predicting their turnaround team but I, I was instead just curious to ask the question can they be like how about this? If I give you Wisconsin, Rutgers, Maryland, you're going to take Wisconsin as your top pick from that group, right? Wisconsin, Rutgers, Maryland.
- [26:18]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, yeah.
- [26:21]
Tom Fornelli
Big ten teams that were not bowling that we expect to be bowling and could be having a good bounce back or what about, what about Rutgers, Maryland?
- [26:33]
Chip Patterson
I think Maryland because they have, I just think they have more upside with those players.
- [26:37]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, same.
- [26:41]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, I mean I, I think Rutgers is probably going to take a small step backwards. I, I, I don't like unless you paid super close attention to them and believe me, I understand why you didn't like I, I, Ethan Kelly Manus was huge for them and he was a very good player for that. But I think replacing him could be a problem.
- [26:59]
Tom Fornelli
I think and this is unfortunately the you know locks poisoned brain that I have inside my skull but they kind of lost their identity, you know like they weren't a good defensive team.
- [27:12]
Bud Elliott
No.
- [27:13]
Tom Fornelli
And so you had to let Ethan Cali Manis go out there and cook a little bit so you lose him. What are you resettling on? You know, like are they going to
- [27:23]
Bud Elliott
be able to receiver's name too?
- [27:26]
Tom Fornelli
Are you going to be able to resettle on a, a group that's gonna play teams close and give yourself a chance to win late because defensively they were not at all what you would come to expect from, from Rutgers given that.
- [27:38]
Bud Elliott
And then yeah, Ian Strong transferred to Cal. That's a big.
- [27:40]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, they lost the receivers because Wisconsin also lost a lot of players. That's where you're going to be looking at the. Do the ends match the outs in terms of the overall talent? Overall talent. Overall talent in, overall talent out. Man, I'm. I'm sorry to be a little Debbie Downer here, but we'll. We'll at least be able to do a palate cleanser. Put them in the. I mean, we put him in the thumbnail. I mean, by. Mike Norvell's bowling, right? He's either bowling or he's. Or he's always fixing the bowls around the holiday table, you know, like, where are they better? Bud, this is. This is your world, man. It's a great question to ask.
- [28:24]
Chip Patterson
I think they're better at linebacker.
- [28:27]
Tom Fornelli
You could tell me they are better at wide receiver because they kept their best wide receivers and you assume a year of development or improvement.
- [28:35]
Chip Patterson
If Danzy turns into a, like, legitimate. More legitimate route runner, then I would definitely buy receiver because he's probably the fastest guy in college football, you know, and they're. They're banking on him to be there, too. Loy McCoy is a loss, though.
- [28:53]
Bud Elliott
He.
- [28:54]
Chip Patterson
He was coming on down the stretch. He got paid big time. So other teams saw that as well. I guess you could say better at running back. Like, to me, knowing what they're paying Chroma, if he's not a stud for you, I think you're screwed. Right? Like, the fact you had to go pay Wisner is. Is pretty damning. You had so many more, more needs on that team. There are spots where they could be better in theory, but I don't think there are many spots where you're like, yeah, they're definitely better. Like, Ashley Daniels is not a clear improvement to me over Castellanos. He could be better, but he also could easily be worse.
- [29:29]
Bud Elliott
The problem I have with declaring FSU a turnaround team, like, and this is. I'm not saying these are the only games they're going to win. I'm saying when you look at the schedule, like, you look at the games and you're like, all right, that's a win. Like Gimme, New Mexico State, Central Arkansas and at bc, Those feel like the only three real gimmes on the schedule.
- [29:47]
Tom Fornelli
For it to feel like a turnaround season, I would need to see eight or nine wins.
- [29:52]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. And they've got Alabama on the road, Louisville on the road, Miami on the road. They got Clemson in Florida, and it's pits on the road. Virginia. I don't know what Virginia is going to be next year, but they were a decent team last it's like smu. You've got like.
- [30:05]
Chip Patterson
Are they favorable? Tallahassee?
- [30:08]
Danny Cannell
No. Are they, are they favored over SMU in Tallahassee?
- [30:12]
Chip Patterson
Well, I think SMU is a good bit better than Clemson.
- [30:14]
Tom Fornelli
I agree.
- [30:14]
Chip Patterson
Okay. I think, I think Clemson, both of
- [30:16]
Danny Cannell
those teams might be favored, though their
- [30:18]
Chip Patterson
lack of portal success with their major drop off in recruiting is not a parlay I want to bet on.
- [30:24]
Tom Fornelli
We will know the, the read on Clemson, for better or worse, will be set by the LSU game.
- [30:33]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, like, I would not lump Florida and Alabama or SMU or Louisville in Clemson. I don't think Clemson has that caliber players in their team,
- [30:42]
Bud Elliott
but they're dead.
- [30:44]
Tom Fornelli
D, E, A D. Yeah, you know, it's like C, L, E, M. Yeah, Tom's got a bit. D, E, A D. You know, it's, it's, it's a corner. You know, it's a. Tom's on it. It's gonna, it's gonna be a great test of. Never wrong, just early.
- [31:00]
Chip Patterson
Also, like, I think BC's a win, but when's the last time you won a road game under Mike Norvell in his conference
- [31:10]
Danny Cannell
on the road? Stanford.
- [31:11]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. If you can lose that Stanford team, like, you don't think those guys can tune out this dude's message.
- [31:18]
Bud Elliott
It is later in the year too, isn't it? Like, yeah, it's November 7th.
- [31:22]
Chip Patterson
What if it's red bandana? College guys get like, like +20 and all their attributes. Right.
- [31:28]
Tom Fornelli
But you know damn well that there is just as much of a question about whether the coach is being tuned out in Chestnut Hill. That game on November 7th could be coachless. That game on November 7th could be very much just like a pickup game. Call your own fouls. Yeah, it'll be, it'll be a call your own fouls kind of game. When Florida State plays Boston College up in Chestnut Hill.
- [31:53]
Bud Elliott
Let's. Let's start working on like a live show in Chestnut Hill.
- [31:56]
Tom Fornelli
Oh, geez.
- [32:00]
Chip Patterson
Gonna be in the playoffs.
- [32:03]
Tom Fornelli
Are the Tar Heels a bowl?
- [32:07]
Danny Cannell
I don't know how you can say that. With confidence. No, I did not have them on my list. I wanted schedule a little tougher.
- [32:13]
Tom Fornelli
Schedule is a little tougher. Yes.
- [32:18]
Bud Elliott
I, I think it's like just getting to a bowl. I think it's going flippy.
- [32:24]
Tom Fornelli
It is not a turnaround team. It is a team that did not make a bowl game that could make a bowl game. But, buddy, there's a, there is just still such a gap between where you would say turnaround. You know, like this team Is has made up distance elevated to a tier. They could again 100 be in Charlotte or Annapolis or you know, let's see where did they probably won't get shipped off to Detroit, but you know, where
- [32:54]
Danny Cannell
are the adult cheerleading championships? That's also where they could be.
- [32:59]
Bud Elliott
Schedule is not kind either.
- [33:00]
Chip Patterson
No, right. That they could be a materially better team and have the same record.
- [33:08]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, that's 100. In the conversation they did say it
- [33:13]
Bud Elliott
was a 33 year. Oh no, wait, they said 33rd team. My bad.
- [33:16]
Tom Fornelli
Not a 33 year build.
- [33:21]
Danny Cannell
I so I looked at year two, kind of a jump year ucf. I thought they played a little bit better than expected. You know, I think Scott Frost, Lonza Barnett coming in to man the helm, he was pretty good for James Madison. So I think he's. That's a program I looked at and said they could take a jump forward, you know, and the Big 12, it does feel like there's more parity in that league. So if you get a little bit more stability at QB and you know, the team kind of buying into what Scott Frost. Scott Frost is selling, I think they could be one.
- [33:49]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. They avoid Texas Tech and Utah. They have to play BYU, but at least it's in Orlando. So BYU's got to travel down there and then their road slate in conference Houston, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Colorado, like that feels kind of manageable.
- [34:05]
Tom Fornelli
Also, you know, looking at the Michael Hawkins going down to the Big 12, UCF's got a quarterback coming up to the Big 12. They've got former James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett, who put together some wild games in Sunbelt play. How much of that is going to be able to be replicated at the next level? That's that. That is kind of the question here. Can Scott Frost take a player who is a incredibly gifted playmaker and be able to make sure that you don't get, you know, any kind of degradation taking him up a tier.
- [34:40]
Bud Elliott
He survived playing Oregon.
- [34:42]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I'm confident in Barnett because I don't think he's being asked to win games 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Right. Like I think he can execute the system to get UCF to a bowl game.
- [34:55]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I mean, I'm excited. I think he's a fun player to watch. Yeah, I think about Scott Frost and we discussed how that UCF offense this year maybe didn't match the what your brain thought UCF could be just the whole putting Scott Frost back in Orlando with this program, like it was just going to light it up, light up the world Once again with their offense, Barnett's not individually going to do that, but man, he, if they start playing fast and Barnett's in rhythm and playing well, he can really make life difficult for some opposing defenses. All right, I've got one other one that I knew I wanted to hit here. Baylor.
- [35:34]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I had him on there too.
- [35:37]
Tom Fornelli
They ill big Year.
- [35:39]
Danny Cannell
I did not. I got to see it from DJ Lagway before. I like, I just, I think he could be one of those guys that has the five star tag and so he gets opportunity after opportunity. I got to see much improved play from him before. I believe it. You know, I'm not just buying on the hope of the physical gifts that he's got.
- [35:58]
Tom Fornelli
I, I'm willing to. I mean, and this is the fun thing about Baylor, especially for the discussion. It's just such a gotta have it year for Dave Aranda that if it doesn't work, I mean, that's the thing, is that teams that didn't make a bowl game that have the same coach could very much be copied and pasted into a hot seat list. I mean, we're talking about Wisconsin, we're talking about Baylor, you know, we're talking about Florida State, we're talking about these coaches that kind of have to do it. Whether that urgency is going to inspire wildly different results. I did not think Baylor was uncompetitive this past season.
- [36:35]
Bud Elliott
You lose Sawyer Robertson, you've got a tough schedule. Like you're opening the season with Auburn again. And I think we all expect we'll get to that when we talk to the new coaches. But I wouldn't be surprised if we think Auburn's going to be better. Then you get into conference play. Like four of your last six games are on the road. It's Kansas, ucf and then you're on the road for byu, you're on the road for Houston. And the two home games interspersed in there are Iowa State and Texas Tech. Like I, I don't. Nothing I saw from Baylor the last year makes me think that they're going to have a massive turnaround. Playing that schedule, losing your quarterback on
- [37:06]
Chip Patterson
top of it, that they were in my list just because I think they might have the potential if they get them right. But obviously there's no guarantee there. Did you guys have Colorado?
- [37:18]
Tom Fornelli
No, no.
- [37:21]
Chip Patterson
I know people think I'm like the anti Colorado guy, but. But 3 and 9 is pretty floorsy. You know, it's hard to be worse than that. So I, I think. And in the Big 12, like the bottom half of the Big 12 is just so gettable. You know, the schedule's like, I looked at this earlier, let me pull it back up the schedule.
- [37:39]
Danny Cannell
But it was to get to a bowl. Right. So they got to go three to six.
- [37:42]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [37:43]
Tom Fornelli
So you get.
- [37:43]
Chip Patterson
You get Northwestern. Right now you're at Georgia Tech. I think they lose that, but I mean, there's no guarantee on that. Right. You host Texas Tech, you host Utah. So those are difficult games. I would say back to back.
- [38:00]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [38:01]
Chip Patterson
Like Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona State, Houston, Cincy, UCF. If you can go 30 in the non con, which I don't think is insane because I think. I think Georgia Tech drops off, can you go three and six in big 12 playing get to a bowl?
- [38:18]
Bud Elliott
So I don't think you're going 3, 0 and non con though, Right?
- [38:22]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [38:22]
Chip Patterson
But I think you're better than Northwestern.
- [38:24]
Bud Elliott
You're on. You're on the road against Northwestern, and I'm not sure you're better than they are.
- [38:29]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [38:29]
Bud Elliott
And that's my. My concern too, is like, this is a team of transfers and there's the Dion health situation. It's like you look at the start of that schedule, they're at Georgia Tech to start. They get Weber State. They're at Northwestern, at Baylor, Texas Tech, Utah. If they're one in five or two and four after those first six games.
- [38:48]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [38:49]
Bud Elliott
Bother showing up the rest of the way.
- [38:51]
Tom Fornelli
I'm not. Well, I'm not ready to. I'm not putting them on quit watch.
- [38:55]
Bud Elliott
I am. Colorado is on quit watch. Yeah.
- [38:58]
Chip Patterson
They're one in five. I think that's a total dumpster.
- [39:01]
Tom Fornelli
Let's make sure that for the record, Tom Fornelli is declaring Clemson dead and putting Colorado on quit watch by mid March.
- [39:07]
Bud Elliott
I don't like the effort I'm seeing from those boys this spring.
- [39:11]
Danny Cannell
Fighting. That's good. They're fighting.
- [39:12]
Bud Elliott
It's a good thing.
- [39:15]
Tom Fornelli
So JuJu Marion's offense could be fun. Yeah. If. If Juju Lewis clicks in Brennan. In Brennan Marion's offense, you could sell me on Colorado having a wildly entertaining team that, yes, could win. Like you can win coin flips and just flip 3 and 9 to 6 and 6. So just sell me on the other side of the ball. I think is where I'm at on that one.
- [39:44]
Chip Patterson
That's totally fair.
- [39:45]
Tom Fornelli
Sell. Sell me on the other side of the ball. What was it like? Colorado could be 10th in total offense yards per game nationally and 7 and 5.
- [40:00]
Chip Patterson
Has Danny gotten the text yet? About two out of the Falcons and will he need to talk about this on HQ?
- [40:08]
Danny Cannell
I have not. I'm working tomorrow on HQ.
- [40:11]
Bud Elliott
Just today. The start is today the start of NFL free agency? Danny.
- [40:15]
Danny Cannell
Yeah. Nine a.m. what? But this is the tampering window. Doesn't officially start Wednesday.
- [40:20]
Bud Elliott
Well, because I'm. I'm supposed to be doing like an hour long mock draft on HQ again and I'm just waiting to get the text that they're going to cancel it because of NFL.
- [40:27]
Tom Fornelli
Because of two. Well, anything Dolphins, you know. Yeah, high priority. Yeah, I saw that JJ was on earlier so they've at least got him close to the hip, so. Okay, sure he can handle the the breaking news. He was on this morning talking all things to a Coming up on the other side we're talking all things new coaches. Who among the new hires are ready to lead some teams that were not bowling into the bowl season. That's right. A close look at what's ahead for the likes of a John Sumrall, for the likes of an Alex Golish, for the likes of a James Franklin and so much more.
- [41:04]
Bud Elliott
Next
- [41:06]
Tom Fornelli
shot clocks league shots, upsets, aces TGL playoffs are here. First Atlanta Drive starts their repeat run against Los Angeles Golf Club. Then Rory's Boston Common Golf and Tigers Jupiter Lynx face off in their playoff debuts. Who will advance? Keep up its playoffs tune in Tuesday, March 17th at 6:30pm and 9:00pm only on ESPN and the ESPN app. Your little one grew three inches overnight.
- [41:29]
Chip Patterson
Adorable.
- [41:30]
Tom Fornelli
Also expensive. Sell their pint sized pieces on Depop and list them in minutes with no selling fees because somewhere a dad refuses to pay full price for the clothes his kids will outgrow tomorrow and he's ready to buy your son's entire wardrobe right now. Consider your future growth. Bird budget secured. Start selling on Depop where taste recognizes taste. Payment processing fees and boosting fees still apply. See website for details. I think a lot of these hires are great as we are back here on the COVID 3 podcast now looking at teams that did not make a bowl and may and hired a new coach. I like a lot of the coaches but kind of setting the ceiling, judging our enthusiasm, that's going to be a little bit of a deeper conversation. Danny, which, which schools or what school would you like to start with for teams that did not make a bowl game last year? Hired a new coach and you could see a big turnaround for those fan bases.
- [42:28]
Danny Cannell
Oh, I think there's one that's probably the most obvious out there. Oklahoma State.
- [42:35]
Tom Fornelli
I mean that's, that's a candidate for the biggest. Right.
- [42:38]
Danny Cannell
And that was. That's why I had him number one. You know, bring in new coach Eric Morris, bringing his quarterback, bringing his running back. I do think it was probably about as bad culture environment at the end of Mike Gundy's tenure there. So you get buy in similar to what we were talking about. Just West Virginia and UCF making a jump, Big 12 feels get a blankets kind of open. So I would say they're. They're the candidate for biggest improvement for the new coach.
- [43:09]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I. It's probably them or the field.
- [43:13]
Danny Cannell
Oh yeah, I think so too. I had them easy.
- [43:18]
Chip Patterson
I mean they won one game, right?
- [43:23]
Bud Elliott
The win was like an FCS win, right? It was, yeah. UT Martin 277 to start the season. Cowboy fans were all hyped up and ready. They thought this was the beginning of something special.
- [43:34]
Chip Patterson
Would you take the field, Chip? And if so, who's the field?
- [43:41]
Tom Fornelli
If after a bowl game James Franklin has 10 wins in Blacksburg year one, I wouldn't be surprised.
- [43:50]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, they're. They're second on my list for sure.
- [43:52]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I mean that's. I just. Things. Things got so bad and you're bringing in a lot. I mean you're talking about coaches bringing in someone they know. You're getting drew mess to maker, but man, you're getting even more than quarterback in Blacksburg. You know, you've just got a lot of familiarity, called a lot of coaches, a lot of support staff and a lot of getting the band back together. And the. The level of competition is not what you were facing in the. In the Big Ten East. So I am. I am very. I am not ready to put Virginia Tech in year one of James Franklin in a position to unseat Miami. I am not ready to dive down into the beefy middle of the ACC without listing Virginia Tech. You know, like if. Let's think about the teams that have been really good in the ACC recently. SMU played for the ACC title and was 13 points or something away from being back in the ACC championship game last year. I think you got to put SMU in that conversation. Louisville very disappointed with their ACC season last year, but over the course of the Jeff Brom era, they've been one of the winningest programs. You got to put them up there. But man, do not get to the Florida States and Clemsons of the world without putting Virginia Tech on your list of the power rankings based on the trajectory, momentum and what's been infused there in terms of talent on the field and coaching on the sideline.
- [45:23]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, they were the clear number two on my list.
- [45:27]
Bud Elliott
I, I think Virginia Tech will be better than Oklahoma State. I'm pretty confident saying that. Like, I mean, win loss wise. Oh, I, I, we're doing the thing like Oklahoma State.
- [45:39]
Chip Patterson
Will the improvement be larger?
- [45:41]
Tom Fornelli
Right?
- [45:42]
Bud Elliott
No, because I mean, they can go seven and six.
- [45:44]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, well, it's one versus three.
- [45:46]
Bud Elliott
That's what I'm saying. So like from wins wise, I think Virginia Tech's going to win more games. But like, I do think that there is a lot of like next year's Indiana kind of hype going into what Oklahoma State's going to be. And I get it. Morris taking over, bringing a lot of players, including his quarterback and mess maker from the, you know, the G5. And we've seen that have success. So I do think they will be better. It's just, I also know that the two best teams North Texas played last year were the two last games that played Tulane and San Diego State. And Drew Messemaker had five touchdowns and five interceptions in those two games.
- [46:18]
Chip Patterson
That's fair.
- [46:21]
Danny Cannell
I went more from the 1 to 7, 1 to 6 to 3 to 8, as feels realistic. But I wouldn't be shocked at Virginia Tech. They're, they're going to be a trendy pick to win, you know, or to compete for the acc, you know, behind Miami.
- [46:34]
Tom Fornelli
Right.
- [46:35]
Danny Cannell
They're gonna, they're gonna catch just as much of that trendy momentum this offseason. And I get it. And I, I would buy into it too. I just thought you'd see the more significant jump from Oklahoma State.
- [46:45]
Tom Fornelli
Is, is it as easy for Oklahoma State as just sprinkling in the magic fairy dust and, and turning over the regime,
- [46:56]
Chip Patterson
I think, to get to seven wins. Yeah.
- [47:00]
Tom Fornelli
Okay. Because there's a, there is admitted, admittedly a little bit of a blind spot when you have these massive portal classes where, I mean, bud, Danny, Tom, I don't know if y' all came, but I can't always visualize the depth chart with these first year head coaches and 60 plus portal classes. You know, like I'm, I could think about the way that I might stack it up, but, but until we get spring practice, it is really difficult for me to wrap my arms around exactly what it's going to look like when you've got that much turnover across the board. Like what, who is Oklahoma State going to be? Have any glaring weaknesses? Right. Are there spots on the depth chart? Are there spots where we are concerned about their ability to compete? Those are the things that I look forward to Having answered honestly as we start to get a little bit closer to get more information from Oklahoma State still water and around those parts but it's. I, I am not ready to say that. It's just Eric Morris and mess to maker Magic dust is gonna make everything great again.
- [48:06]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I don't think it makes him a Big 12 contender but I, I do think it gets him back to a bowl.
- [48:14]
Bud Elliott
Not super easy though.
- [48:15]
Chip Patterson
No, no it's not.
- [48:16]
Bud Elliott
They are one of the like the Big 12. You know you got the split where some teams play five home games, some teams play five on the road. Oklahoma State's got five on the road, they've got Oregon and non con. Could get hairy.
- [48:27]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, agreed.
- [48:27]
Tom Fornelli
Could Florida win 10 games?
- [48:29]
Bud Elliott
Hell yeah.
- [48:30]
Tom Fornelli
Because six win improvement is traditionally going to be one of the biggest year over year improvements that you're going to see. John Summerall, SEC Coach of the year,
- [48:42]
Bud Elliott
same play if that happens.
- [48:43]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, yeah.
- [48:45]
Danny Cannell
That was like zero hesitation. You guys all jumped on that like. Oh yeah, yeah.
- [48:50]
Chip Patterson
Look, I think Napier is great at building a program. I think he's great at recruiting. I think he's a really subpar game day coach. I know other guys in the Sun Belt when they faced him thought the exact same thing. So I think Summerall is a much better coaching coach and he inherits a roster that's loaded up.
- [49:04]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, like they're playing a very, they're playing an SEC schedule. You know, they've got Georgia, they've got Texas, they've got Oklahoma, they have Florida State at the end. But it's just like so there's that is involved. It's just this is a very talented team and I think it's had a massive upgrade on the sidelines. So I, I could see like if this team hits its ceiling, it's going to be competing for a playoff spot and possibly a berth in Atlanta. If it doesn't, I still think it's probably going to get to a bowl game.
- [49:31]
Chip Patterson
And I would take the roster and their coach over Obama's roster and coach.
- [49:37]
Bud Elliott
I can't believe Danny is the one who's like the doubting Thomas over here all of a sudden.
- [49:42]
Danny Cannell
I love some raw. I think he's awesome. I just, we haven't really. I mean and I know we like the qb but we haven't seen him play very much. You know, if you like Florida, you're
- [49:52]
Chip Patterson
betting heavily on the. Hey, like their OC coached this guy in practice every day and they had real money to spend and they still chose to go with the Guy who
- [50:01]
Tom Fornelli
hadn't had been a starter and retained some good. Like, retained some good players off of last year's team. Yeah. Yes. That was key for me in my, My sort of prediction here. Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas. To me, Florida has the highest ceiling.
- [50:17]
Danny Cannell
What was those?
- [50:18]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas. Did I miss? That's all. Oh, and sorry, LSU is in our next conversation, but all of those four missed a bowl game, made a new hire. If it's a conversation of. Of that group who has the chance to get to 10 wins, my answer is yes. And it is a. Buster Faulkner, Aaron Philo. Like, they don't even need to have a top 10, 10 offense in the country. You know, like, they've got enough good pieces around that team that I think that they can be effective, you know, top 25 offense, top 25 defense. That should be able to get you to, you know, 8 and 4, 9 and 3 going into a bowl game. Chance to win 10 games, like, of
- [51:01]
Chip Patterson
the teams on their schedule. So let's just. Let's skip FAU and Campbell. How many of these teams are definitely better than they were last year? Auburn, I think, probably. Ole Miss, I don't think so. I think Missouri probably takes a step back from what they were when they were healthy, obviously when they had to go to the freshman quarterback. I think you could argue they're better than how they played there. South Carolina, I'm not a believer. Texas, I think is probably better. Georgia, I think is probably better. I don't know if Oklahoma takes a step forward. You know, Kentucky's probably better.
- [51:35]
Bud Elliott
I would think Andy won't be.
- [51:37]
Chip Patterson
Vanity's probably worse. Florida State, we are. We already talked about that.
- [51:42]
Tom Fornelli
I'll. I'll hit pause real quick to say that. Ole Miss and Missouri, while I generally agree with your assessment, there's a limit on how much I think they're going to downgrade. I don't think they're. I don't think they're falling off a cliff.
- [51:54]
Chip Patterson
Agreed. Yeah, I, I think. I think Vandy and Missouri are not falling off a cliff.
- [51:59]
Tom Fornelli
Oh, I said Ole Miss in Missouri.
- [52:01]
Chip Patterson
Oh, sorry.
- [52:02]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, Vandy too.
- [52:04]
Bud Elliott
So you think Vandy's falling off?
- [52:05]
Tom Fornelli
No, no, no.
- [52:08]
Bud Elliott
His first.
- [52:08]
Tom Fornelli
Too early. And I just. I like, off the top of my head, I was like, wait a second. I agree that they're not better because you said how many of these teams are better? I'm not gonna say that they're better, but I'm. I'm not ready to put them in a different tier. I mean, that's the thing that made this so tough in the SEC is I said, well, who's. I. I know in terms of overall record, it's not a zero sum game, but for conference record, it's a zero sum game. If you're going to think all these new hires are going to win a bunch more games, you got to put some losses on somebody else's schedule.
- [52:35]
Chip Patterson
Is Florida favored nine times or 10 times or eight times?
- [52:42]
Bud Elliott
One, two, three.
- [52:44]
Tom Fornelli
Hold on.
- [52:45]
Chip Patterson
They're going to be favored in somewhere between eight and 10 games. I'm just trying to figure out what you guys think.
- [52:49]
Bud Elliott
I'm gonna say definitely eight, maybe nine.
- [52:55]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I think so.
- [52:56]
Bud Elliott
Things break.
- [52:57]
Tom Fornelli
Wow.
- [52:58]
Danny Cannell
So you're saying wow.
- [53:00]
Bud Elliott
I mean, I think the only games I feel confident saying they will definitely not be favored are at Texas, Georgia at the Neutral and then maybe at Auburn because it's early in the season. But I was gonna ask Auburn in that game too. I don't know.
- [53:18]
Tom Fornelli
So then. All right, so what was that win total? 7 and a half over?
- [53:23]
Chip Patterson
No, it's. I think it's probably eight. Eight and a half.
- [53:25]
Tom Fornelli
So now we're expecting this. So I started this conversation by being like, yeah, like Florida, this could be a really good turnaround season. Now we're just going to wind up with the expectation that they're going to win nine or ten games.
- [53:36]
Chip Patterson
Eight and a half will get too much under money. So I think it's probably eight. Or if it's one of those books that has to go hook because they don't want to just give you a refund at the end of the year for a push. It's probably 7 and a half juice over like 180 something.
- [53:51]
Bud Elliott
It's 7 and a half minus 180. I could still put it on the win lock spot.
- [53:59]
Tom Fornelli
Okay, what about real quickly so that we can hit some the, like your, your LSU's, you know, things of that nature. Teams that might jump up in competition. Auburn, Kentucky, we just mentioned those. What's the thought on what the ceiling is going to be for the kind of improvement that could be coming?
- [54:19]
Danny Cannell
I like Alex Golish, I like Byron Brown. I'm a little bit worried about the roster that he's inheriting. I also think the culture he's inheriting was pretty bad. Here's some stuff coming out at the end of the Hugh Freeze tenure. I think he'll get buy in from the team. I mean, I, I get biased when I start talking to these guys and I like them so much.
- [54:37]
Tom Fornelli
Absolutely.
- [54:38]
Danny Cannell
But Their schedule's not easy, but I could, I wouldn't be shocked if they got to eight wins.
- [54:45]
Tom Fornelli
That would be. Let's see, eight wins would be a three win improvement. Pretty solid.
- [54:49]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [54:51]
Tom Fornelli
What about the Kentucky dream?
- [54:54]
Danny Cannell
I'm not. Not sold yet.
- [54:57]
Bud Elliott
I mean, they can get to a
- [54:59]
Tom Fornelli
bowl five and seven last year. That's right.
- [55:03]
Chip Patterson
They spent.
- [55:05]
Bud Elliott
Are they jumping to like nine or ten wins? Probably not.
- [55:10]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, agreed.
- [55:12]
Tom Fornelli
I'm. I'm just not going to be on the. I will not be early on the Kentucky and that's. That to me is less about Kentucky and more about the neighborhood. Like I said earlier, zero sum game for SEC wins and losses. If you're going to throw a bunch on Kentucky's plate, who are you taking them off? And there's a, there's a really, really strong tier, many of them there on Kentucky schedule. All right, last group here. Bold teams poised to jump up a tier mean LSU has to be on it, right?
- [55:42]
Bud Elliott
The poster child of this question.
- [55:43]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [55:44]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [55:46]
Tom Fornelli
And it wasn't. I mean, let's see. Last season was 7 and 6, 6 win improvement, 13 wins.
- [55:55]
Bud Elliott
Let's do it.
- [55:57]
Tom Fornelli
Deep playoff run.
- [56:01]
Bud Elliott
I mean, frankly, if they lose, they made the wrong decision. If they lose a single game, then Lane Kiffin has failed.
- [56:07]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [56:08]
Tom Fornelli
I don't say yes.
- [56:10]
Bud Elliott
No.
- [56:10]
Chip Patterson
But if they don't go 10 and 2 or better, I. I think folks in Baton Rouge are pretty pissed.
- [56:15]
Tom Fornelli
I agree. Thank you. Thank you for following that up because the. The AI generated transcript when you just said yes there with no follow was gonna be fantastic. They lose a single game. They made the wrong decision. But Elliott colon.
- [56:26]
Bud Elliott
Yes.
- [56:30]
Tom Fornelli
What is. What is it, Danny? What is the ceiling for ls? I mean, just.
- [56:34]
Danny Cannell
Maddie.
- [56:35]
Tom Fornelli
Daddy.
- [56:36]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [56:38]
Bud Elliott
Is it title or bust in Baton Rouge?
- [56:41]
Tom Fornelli
Yes.
- [56:42]
Chip Patterson
Yes.
- [56:44]
Bud Elliott
Year one. Gotta have it.
- [56:47]
Chip Patterson
It's probably Final Four bust, right?
- [56:50]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [56:50]
Chip Patterson
With that amount of hype and spending.
- [56:52]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [56:52]
Danny Cannell
If you don't win the national championship, but to get to the Final Four, they feel like it was money well spent and we're close and we're gonn
- [56:59]
Chip Patterson
never made a playoff.
- [57:00]
Tom Fornelli
Correct.
- [57:01]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [57:02]
Tom Fornelli
I like. We don't need to repeat this every single time. But for those who might not remember, but I think I'll credit you with this one. We started talking about making the semifinals, making the Final Four because it means one of two things. You either played well enough to earn a buy a top four seed and won a game, or you made the playoff and then won two games. So it's like a great indicator of postseason success in the 12 team format. If you've made it to the semifinals, then you are good enough to compete for a national championship. So I like that as a. A good measuring stick. LSU probably needs to get there.
- [57:40]
Bud Elliott
Hypothetical situation for you. That could never happen. LSU's off to a great start. Okay, they're like eight. No, at a very minimum. Seven and one. They're like in the top five minimum in the rankings. Alabama's had a rough year. They finally did it. Pulled the trigger. Kalin's out. There's an opening. LSU is on its way to the playoff, but Alabama's open. Oh, what happens?
- [58:04]
Tom Fornelli
Well, if lsu, smart, they send Lane to Alabama, then LSU goes on a sun run through the playoff. Because the real secret playoff success is to sell your coach off to a conference rival, and then all of a sudden, you're going to take off. So in the scenario that you have painted where Kaylin DeBoer has been fired and Lane Kiffin has been hired from LSU to Alabama, obviously we would have to think with the recommendation of Nick Saban, right, to be the one to
- [58:29]
Bud Elliott
tell him, pounding the table on game day, you got to leave LSU for Alabama. Trust me, I did it.
- [58:35]
Tom Fornelli
It worked great in that scenario. Then Sam Levitt just becomes an absolute stud in the college Football playoff, lights it up, and they. They go on a deep run. That's what I would do. What about Kansas State? Play bowl team. Last year, Colin Klein comes in to take over as head coach. Does the Colin Klein, Avery Johnson marriage pay off after all of this? Time of Avery Johnson, player to watch. Avery Johnson, dark horse.
- [59:08]
Bud Elliott
Can't quit him.
- [59:10]
Tom Fornelli
You can't quit him. I can't quit him either. I'm in.
- [59:13]
Bud Elliott
I was ready to quit him, and then they hired Colin Klein. I know.
- [59:17]
Chip Patterson
Now I'm back.
- [59:19]
Danny Cannell
I believe.
- [59:20]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I. I think that's possible.
- [59:24]
Tom Fornelli
Again, these are teams that were bowling last year, so it's not as though things are going, you know, horribly, but if you want to talk about leveling up, they. They can jump it. They can be a top challenger to Texas Tech in the Big 12.
- [59:36]
Bud Elliott
They don't have Texas Tech on the schedule. They don't have byu and they don't have Utah. They're not playing any of them.
- [59:43]
Chip Patterson
Okay, three more because I know we're a little short on time. I want to see if you guys have these on your list. Michigan, yes. Usc, yes. South Carolina, no. I just go back to thinking, like, what have we said about Sellers? Like, can't read the middle of the field. There's not a lot of that in Kendall Brown's offense. He is a freak running around. I mean, could you see something special there with him?
- [60:15]
Bud Elliott
Your tackles have died. They've lost one for the season already. One's not going to be out. One they're hoping is ready for the start of the regular season. And like he was their big transfer.
- [60:22]
Tom Fornelli
Get just.
- [60:23]
Bud Elliott
It's like, I don't know, man. It feels like really bad vibes around the game. Cox. And it's only.
- [60:27]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I would take Arizona as a Big 12 title contender more than I would take a big turnaround season for South Carolina.
- [60:35]
Bud Elliott
What about Penn State?
- [60:38]
Tom Fornelli
That's a level up team. Great call. New coach.
- [60:40]
Bud Elliott
Like they were 7 and 6 last year. New coach pretty much brought his entire damn team with him. Why can't Penn State be the next Indiana?
- [60:52]
Tom Fornelli
It's not, not a horrible call. Cal.
- [60:57]
Danny Cannell
I had Cal on the list.
- [61:01]
Chip Patterson
I did not. Because their schedule gets a lot tougher. But I think, I think they will be a better football team.
- [61:07]
Tom Fornelli
But the chaos of this team, I mean you are right that the schedule has gotten tougher. But they also beat SMU at home and Louisville on the road last year and lost like mind blowing games too. Like blowing a 21 point lead to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. You know, like that's, it's just. We were just an EKG meter in terms of performance for the Bears. If they level that thing off under Lupoi then, you know, things, things could get, things could get interesting.
- [61:41]
Chip Patterson
Do we think Lupo is an upgrade over Wilcox?
- [61:44]
Bud Elliott
I have no idea. Justin Wilcox was a good coach.
- [61:48]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [61:49]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. On game day. Not convinced. Recruiting certainly better.
- [61:58]
Tom Fornelli
That's, I mean it's why they come here. They come here for opportunities. Doesn't matter if it's a player, if it's a coach. We always want to be sure to encourage them to follow that opportunity.
- [62:07]
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
- [62:08]
Tom Fornelli
So they got new opportunities. North Carolina State level up. Positives. CJ Bailey obviously tip it.
- [62:26]
Bud Elliott
You lose Smothers.
- [62:27]
Tom Fornelli
Negatives. You lose Anderson at wide receiver. You lose Smothers, you lose. Yeah, it's.
- [62:35]
Bud Elliott
I don't know, man. I just, I feel like that is a situation where, you know, maybe this is when they, they rise up and they defy expectations. But I just feel like that's a situation that might be right. Running its course.
- [62:45]
Tom Fornelli
Northwestern, we mentioned them earlier.
- [62:51]
Bud Elliott
I mean it depends when they can get that stadium open. They keep pushing back the start time.
- [62:56]
Chip Patterson
What did their schedule do? Like do they fall into one of these crazy like, like Rutgers 2 years ago type schedules?
- [63:02]
Bud Elliott
Well, here's the like, they start with South Dakota State, which is one of those first weekend FCS upsets. That is very easily possible. They get Colorado at home, then they're at Indiana versus Penn State. They're at Oregon in October and then in November, after starting the month at home with Iowa, they finished with three straight road games. Ohio State, Minnesota, Illinois. Not optimistic about the Wildcats in 2026.
- [63:25]
Tom Fornelli
Okay. Are you more optimistic in Michigan State?
- [63:29]
Bud Elliott
Yes.
- [63:30]
Chip Patterson
No.
- [63:32]
Tom Fornelli
That's an Aiden Childs. No, not in Angels. Angels at Northwestern.
- [63:36]
Bud Elliott
Correct.
- [63:37]
Tom Fornelli
Right. Why are you at. Why are you more optimistic in Michigan State?
- [63:43]
Bud Elliott
Better situation, better schedule.
- [63:49]
Chip Patterson
That would be improve.
- [63:51]
Tom Fornelli
Yep, I could see that. All right, our final. Any, any others you want to throw in here or you want to do your official prediction? Everyone throw. Throw one official prediction on biggest year over year improvement.
- [64:02]
Chip Patterson
So it's number of wins improvement, number of wins improvement.
- [64:05]
Tom Fornelli
We are counting the postseason.
- [64:08]
Chip Patterson
Is anybody not taking Oklahoma State?
- [64:10]
Tom Fornelli
Me.
- [64:11]
Chip Patterson
Oh, I'll take Oklahoma State.
- [64:12]
Tom Fornelli
Virginia Tech. You can double up on Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech.
- [64:18]
Danny Cannell
I'm going Oklahoma State. Yeah, that was my number one.
- [64:20]
Bud Elliott
Okay. I'm going a team that's going to improve by seven games. Illinois is going from nine and four to 16. Zero.
- [64:28]
Chip Patterson
Let's go.
- [64:30]
Bud Elliott
And if it's not them, Virginia Tech
- [64:32]
Chip Patterson
and women's track championship this weekend.
- [64:35]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, I mean, I'm dialed. Dialed in.
- [64:38]
Tom Fornelli
How'd you know that, bud?
- [64:39]
Bud Elliott
Track school.
- [64:40]
Chip Patterson
The chat.
- [64:42]
Tom Fornelli
Thank you, Tailgate. We always appreciate.
- [64:44]
Chip Patterson
I'm not watching college track, bro.
- [64:47]
Bud Elliott
Hey, I don't know.
- [64:49]
Chip Patterson
You know, I'll watch if they hit the for you page. But yeah,
- [64:55]
Tom Fornelli
I mean, you know, once, you know, this time of year can be a real potpourri of college sports on the timeline. So always interesting to be able to check it out. Button. DK going to Oklahoma State. Chip going with Virginia Tech. Tom going with Illinois 16 and oh, by a billion parentheses, Virginia Tech, not Illinois.
- [65:16]
Bud Elliott
Virginia Tech second place. But Illinois would be number one.
- [65:19]
Tom Fornelli
But Illinois 16 and oh, by a billion. All right, be sure to continue your conversations here. Here's what we'll do. We got some good suggestions in the tailgate. We'll continue to you drop them in the big old bag of mail. Why don't we circle back to this conversation for Thursday's Mailbag, really led by some of your suggestions, but also, of course, some of those questions from the big old bag of mail that have been stewing around, including some big picture Mississippi State talk, whether the NFL draft could do a futures draft the way that NHL does. Some good propositions in terms of Heisman trophies, national championships, the fan experience and more. So so if you want to add your turnaround team suggestions or questions, make sure that you do that in the big old bag of mail that will be coming up on Thursday. We will be back, though on Wednesday at 11:00am Eastern Time. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fernell. You can follow him@bud elliot3. You can follow him at Danny Cannell. Follow me at Chip Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.
- [66:17]
Bud Elliott
Thank you.
- [66:18]
Chip Patterson
See y'.
- [66:18]
Bud Elliott
All.
- [66:18]
Danny Cannell
See ya.
- [66:19]
Bud Elliott
This Women's History Month, Paramount plus celebrates
- [66:22]
Tom Fornelli
with the women who Move Mountains collection.
- [66:24]
Chip Patterson
Let it ride.
- [66:25]
Tom Fornelli
For the women who take control and promote push boundaries in Landman. Underestimating me is how I buy you out.
- [66:30]
Chip Patterson
Who forge their own paths and stay true to themselves in the Madisons.
- [66:34]
Tom Fornelli
This is the most love I have ever shown you. And who act as guides and explorers in Star Trek Starfleet Academy globally. Go where no one has gone before. Explore the Women who Move Mountains Collection
- [66:47]
Bud Elliott
on Paramount Stream now.