Upon Further Review: AP poll Reactions, CFP projections, Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios, More!

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Upon Further Review — AP Poll Reactions, CFP Projections, Conference Tiebreakers & More

Date: November 17, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Episode Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 Podcast dives into the latest chaos and drama swirling through college football as the regular season heads into its final stretch. The hosts break down reactions to the new AP Poll, debate the validity of team resumes, project the College Football Playoff (CFP) field, puzzle over intricate conference tiebreaker scenarios, analyze Heisman race front-runners, and discuss shifting coaching dynamics. The banter is fast, detailed, and includes plenty of insider insights, witty asides, and heated opinions.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. AP Top 25 Poll Reactions (04:23-15:45)

• Alabama and Texas Slide, Oklahoma Rises:
  Alabama drops from #4 to #10 after a key loss, causing movement among Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Oklahoma in the Top 10. Texas falls hard after losing to Florida and Georgia, now at #17.
• Debate: Is Texas Playoff-Dead?
  • "Can we just put to bed Texas getting to the playoffs as a three-loss team?" (Danny, 06:38)
  • Discussion about whether Texas could climb back into the CFP with a win over undefeated A&M and Oklahoma. Consensus: almost no chance, but weird chaos scenarios can't be entirely ruled out.
• Resume Blind Test Exercise:
  Tom presents a blind comparison of five 7-3 teams' resumes, pointing out voter bias for pre-season ranked teams (Missouri, Tennessee) over similarly deserving teams like Nebraska and Arizona State.
  • "If the best thing about you is that you can't beat ranked teams, that kind of suggests maybe you don't deserve to be ranked." (Tom, 13:00)
• Crowded Bottom of the Poll:
  Chaos reigns at the bottom; more teams receiving votes than usual, with little consensus.
• BYU's Resume and Metrics:
  Danny flags BYU’s FPI-favored strength of schedule, raising questions about why Georgia Tech isn't closer despite similar strengths.

2. College Football Playoff Projections (18:49-29:39)

• Bud Bot Simulation Controversy:
  • The model triggers online wrath by showing Alabama jumping Georgia if Bama wins the SEC; hosts agree the SEC champ will never be ranked fifth.
  • "Would you really put the SEC champion third among SEC teams?" (Bud, 19:40)
• Potential CFP Field:
  • North Texas, Tulane, and JMU are G5 contenders but unlikely to get in over American teams.
  • Oklahoma's playoff chances are discussed—models don't favor them due to offensive struggles, even after big wins.
  • “In the models, Oklahoma’s power rating dropped after that game because the offense looked like complete garbage again.” (Bud, 22:32)
• Debate Over CFP Bubble Teams:
  • The group debates how high Texas Tech could rise and whether Georgia fans might welcome a #5 seed rather than a bye, to avoid injuries.

3. Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios (31:11-55:04)

• SEC Tiebreakers Explained (31:11-34:57):
  • Bud unpacks who needs what:
    • A&M is in if they beat Texas.
    • Ole Miss needs an Egg Bowl win, Texas beating A&M, Auburn beating Alabama.
    • Georgia needs Kentucky to beat Vandy and three other results; gets complicated in three-way ties.
    • "Georgia needs Kentucky over Vandy plus three of those other four I just mentioned." (Bud, 33:22)
• Big Ten Scenarios (35:03-42:04):
  • Mostly rides on Ohio State-Indiana. Michigan could be in complicated tie-breaks with USC if various upsets occur.
  • "I really don't think there's any possible combination of games that allows Michigan to make up .13 in the win percentage column over the final two weeks." (Bud, 41:39)
• ACC & Big 12 Title Races (42:04-55:04):
  • ACC: Georgia Tech controls destiny; Virginia, Pitt, SMU, Miami still mathematically alive but need help.
  • Big 12:
    • Texas Tech and BYU control their destiny; Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, Utah need help.
    • "If all the favorites win and Cincy beats BYU, then it would be Texas Tech, Arizona State." (Bud, 53:57)
  • Tiebreakers are so convoluted even the hosts openly struggle: "It’s really freaking complicated...this is a mess." (Bud, 52:02)

4. Notable Segment: Brilliantly Boring Wins of the Week (55:37-57:33)

• Highlights Washington’s dominant, mistake-free drubbing of Purdue as this week’s “brilliantly boring” win:
  • “They just took care of business right from the jump. It was over very quickly.” (Tom, 56:59)

5. Upon Further Review: Second Thoughts & Listener Feedback (59:16-74:28)

• Texas Fans in Denial:
  • Tom hears complaints that Texas wasn’t really “blown out” by Georgia. He doubles down and provides a drive-by-drive rundown of how Georgia put the game away.
    • “They keep bringing up that it was 14:10 at the end of the third quarter. What they don’t mention is that it was still 14 to 10...because after they got the touchdown...Georgia had the ball and ran out the final minutes...” (Tom, 59:54)
• Kirby Smart Trolling Texas:
  • Bud explains Kirby’s pointed comments after beating Texas as related to losing five-star DL Justice Terry in recruitment: “That was 100% related to that.” (Bud, 62:19)
• Heisman Race Talk:
  • Strong takes on Mendoza’s odds, Ty Simpson’s longshot, and how the Big Ten title game winner will likely claim the trophy.
  • “Every QB in the Heisman conversation has at least one great receiver...” (Tom, 71:13)
  • “Aiden Hutchinson was a finalist...None of those really sniffed winning the award, but all, all finalists.” (Chip, 68:08)
• Unique Personalities – Fernando Mendoza:
  • Chip, Tom, and Danny marvel at the Indiana QB's charisma and looming national attention.

6. Coaching Carousel and Lane Kiffin Speculation (74:56-83:20)

• Sentiment Shift at Ole Miss:
  • Danny notices growing restlessness among Rebel fans and admins as Lane Kiffin holds off on contract extension.
  • “It's either it's time to poop or get off the pot...I think we're approaching that with Ole Miss.” (Danny, 75:46)
• Coaching Rumors, Jimmy Sexton & Potential Openings:
  • The group debates whether Lane will leave, if Sexton’s agent games are behind the curtain, and theorizes about domino effects for Alabama, Texas, and more if certain jobs open.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On College Football’s Chaotic Drama:
  • “We are not building gated communities tomorrow, okay? We are not trying to keep people out of college football enjoyment.”
    – Chip (44:52)
• On Poll Voter Bias:
  • “Not because they're in the SEC, but because they started the season ranked and voters are lazy.”
    – Tom (13:00)
• Tiebreaker Madness:
  • “So you literally need Cal…Like, you can't just be Louisville beating SMU.”
    – Bud (46:53)
  • “I could have done this wrong. All right? But I think they need to win out…” (Bud, 47:29)
• Heisman Voting Realism:
  • “If you really think a linebacker is going to win the Heisman Trophy, I've got a bridge in New York to sell you.”
    – Tom (68:08)
• On the Lane Kiffin Soap Opera:
  • “I think we're approaching that with Ole Miss, where their administration is getting a little bit irritated as well…”
    – Danny (75:46)
  • “Lane also loves the spotlight.”
    – Bud (81:43)
• On the Boredom of the Coaching Carousel:
  • “I think that this carousel is going to be boring as hell for the most part.”
    – Tom (79:29)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• AP Top 25 Reactions: 04:23–15:45
• Resume Blind Test & Poll Analysis: 11:32–15:45
• CFP Projections (Bud Bot): 18:49–29:39
• Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios: 31:11–55:04
• Brilliantly Boring Wins: 55:37–57:33
• Upon Further Review (Fan Feedback, Second Thoughts): 59:16–74:28
• Heisman Race/Player Personality Talk: 64:34–74:28
• Lane Kiffin & Coaching Carousel: 74:56–83:20

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a prime showcase of the Cover 3 team’s signature wit, data-driven analysis, and willingness to call out sacred cows in both polling and playoff processes. The hosts’ transparency about the complexities (and occasional frustrations) of tiebreaker math, their clever blind resume stunt, and their no-nonsense takes on the Heisman and coaching carousel make this an essential listen for any college football fan trying to keep up with the wild ride that is November in the sport.

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For full coverage, follow the hosts:
@Chip_Patterson | @TomFornelli | @DannyKanell | @BudElliott3

Watch & subscribe: YouTube.com/Cover3
Listen: wherever you get your podcasts

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Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about in depth analysis on college football are boring sometimes, sure. But doing the research and understanding every game gives you the knowledge that you need to make small talk with any sports fan anywhere. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is. It's what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life. PNC bank, Brilliantly boring since 1865 Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank National association member FDIC.

[Tom Fornelli]

Welcome.

[Bud Elliott]

Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny.

[Tom Fornelli]

Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.

[Bud Elliott]

Football cover signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe Smash, smash that like, and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID 3 tailgate, where Ryan has said, end the Marcel Reed Heisman talk. Hey, listen, for one half he looked like a Heisman trophy, you know, and then for the other half it was okay. But look, we, we've got some Heisman Trophy discussion coming up because that is one of our items that we want to hit in upon further review because that's what we got going on here Monday. It will include rolling through some conference tiebreaker scenarios. Thank goodness Bud is here because math is involved and I would have been really, really lost that he'll hold our hands, he'll guide us through the chaos that could be coming. That we will also play a little game of bowl or no bowl. But. Oh, and the College Football Playoff projection. Joey for hats. How often does that happen?

[Tom Fornelli]

I think this is a first.

[Chip Patterson]

Really?

[Tom Fornelli]

When was the last time you wore a hat?

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, that's what I was saying too. I, I thought. I didn't recognize who the host was.

[Chip Patterson]

That. Is that better?

[Tom Fornelli]

No, I was fine with the head.

[Bud Elliott]

I was normal. At least when he pulls this off, we know it's not a wig. Right.

[Danny Cannell]

Like the Trump move, though.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. So we've got, we got a lot to be able to get into. Let's. Let's get the Monday business started.

[Bud Elliott]

Tom does look good I mean, we should point this camera out. This is looking good.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's the same camera I've always had.

[Bud Elliott]

Like, the zoom broke on my or. New ring light.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I've got a new light.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Look great. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. Thank you, Tom.

[Danny Cannell]

Looks like a model.

[Tom Fornelli]

This is.

[Danny Cannell]

I'm still paying for a late night Saturday. I'm getting too old for those hanging with the young kids.

[Bud Elliott]

I threw the eye patches on.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I, I did appreciate you. You gamed it well. Just Danny and then the whole crew pops in. It was almost like one of those old like viral sensations, you know, with like the smash cut. And then everybody's out there partying. How was Saturday night?

[Danny Cannell]

We had a blast, man. We had a ton of fun. The game was pretty. Mackenzie was super fired up about that. Damien seemed to have recovered from the Alabama loss and we did. We were playing some late night golf with the glow in the bar, dark golf balls. And I assumed somebody had picked them all up from the green, but I assumed incorrectly and they were all gone. Some Sunday morning, they were all gone. I don't know. I haven't gotten a note yet from the club, but there's a chance probably I'll get some kind of. Hey, you know you're not allowed to.

[Bud Elliott]

Do that, but like, like from, from the pool deck onto the course or did you guys.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, yeah, from the pool deck onto the course. There's a little green behind the house, so we were little closest to the pin action. Had some LED lights out there, you know, it was cool. We had a good time.

[Chip Patterson]

What, what hole is that?

[Danny Cannell]

It is the fourth.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, this is incriminating.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Thank you, attorney.

[Tom Fornelli]

Thank you.

[Chip Patterson]

In the name of the country club. No, I'm just kidding. All right, let's get into our Monday business. Let's begin with our quick look at the AP Top 25 changes. It is poll assassin. All right, as we look at the new AP Top 25 poll released on Sunday, of course you've got to step back for the Alabama Crimson Tide. They fall from number four down to number 10. That is down six spots, allowing for a slight bump up for your Georgia, your Ole Miss, your Oregon. Not much changing right there. Texas Tech makes a jump. We got a tie for six. Hello. Oklahoma does move up inside the top ten. They check in at number eight. Further down in the rankings, the Texas Longhorns. They, they fall further than I projected. This one. Is it either Chips wrong or the AP voters, you know, actually, actually had some stones with them. They did drop them all the way down closer to where you find the next three loss team. Tennessee. I was projecting a, an a Vanderbilt win would help Texas but they do fall down seven spots to number 17. Plenty of shake up near the edge of the poll. We do lose Louisville, Cincinnati, Pitt and South Florida. That opens up things for North Texas, Mizzou, Tulane and Houston. What do we see from the new AP? Top 25 as we, as we look at this and then look ahead, I see Matt Zenitz.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's what I see. When we look at the top 25. Do you guys have thoughts? Because I, I, I took a little bit of a different approach this week so I was going to let you guys go first.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I, I think it's good they dropped Texas because Texas, you know like they, they lost to a 3 and 7 Florida team. Right, right. You know they got drubbed by Georgia. They have really close wins over a bad Kentucky team and a pretty horrible Mississippi State team. Like the resume is thin. I think playing Ohio State close does and should count for something. But like if you're going to have all these squeaky wins over bad teams and then you know you get drubbed by, by Texas, I think they probably should fall or sorry, dropped by Georgia.

[Danny Cannell]

I do think just a point to remind the people this is only the AP so it'll be curious to see if the committee does the same, takes the same action. But I know Tom has said this a long time. I've kind of felt this way. Can we just put to bed Texas getting to the playoffs as a three loss team? Like because I, I'm with but like I think. No, I think you can, I mean but you got. So you have two bad losses. Like I know like the Florida loss is a loss and I'm celebrating those losses. But, but also the final score of the game that you did lose to Georgia was not close. Like to me I think they're done. I think we're fooling ourselves if we're trying to wedge Texas in the conversation as a three loss team.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean look it, I think you can put into bed, say the prayer, read the book. Right. Like lights are off. But is there a guarantee they don't come back out the room asking for some water or something? Like I think there's still some chance.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh they will.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

If they beat A M they're gonna have a win over an undefeated A M. So yeah, that'll can't and that'll for the committee that'll cancel a lot.

[Chip Patterson]

And a win against Oklahoma and a.

[Bud Elliott]

Three score win against Oklahoma, right. Yeah, it look they just need a whole lot of help.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Like a ton of help.

[Danny Cannell]

You need like we feel better about Miami than them. What if both Miami and Texas went out?

[Bud Elliott]

Then it's going to be Miami I think.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I'd agree with that.

[Bud Elliott]

So Miami would have a win over a team that beat or that lost to Notre Dame. Sorry, Miami beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame lost A M. Texas would have beaten A. I, I think Miami's losses are more but they, they're going to hold up better than Texas losses and I don't think Texas has like the depth of resume to overcome Miami.

[Tom Fornelli]

Right.

[Chip Patterson]

Also Texas would have to beat Texas A M. Also Miami, you know like.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean and Miami is the head to head over Florida. Right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

And. And what won't come up in the conversation in this hypothetical is that people just forget the Kentucky and the Mississippi.

[Chip Patterson]

State wins the overtime wins against teams from the bottom of the SEC standings.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Game control.

[Bud Elliott]

That would. Would it? Let's say Oklahoma loses one of their next two games. Right. Which is possible but probably not probable. Well, I guess it's pretty probably lose one but it's not probably lose both. Is Texas getting in over Oklahoma since they have the head to head they both would have free losses.

[Danny Cannell]

See that's why I think you go look at Oak at. I think it depends maybe on how Michigan does. Like if Michigan beat Ohio State that Michigan because they both played Big ten teams but Oklahoma beat theirs Ohio State. I think they need Michigan then to.

[Chip Patterson]

Tennessee to beat Vandy because if you can see Alabama 10 if, if they can say Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan, those are three good cards to put on the table.

[Bud Elliott]

So I mean Vanny didn't play Ole Miss. Vanny didn't play Oklahoma. Right. Vanny didn't play Texas or they did play Texas, they lost. Right. Texas have the head to head over Vandy. I, I think nine and three Texas with a win over A M is going to be a conversation against 10 and 2. Vandy of Vandy beats Tennessee.

[Chip Patterson]

Right. I was talking about Oklahoma and Oklahoma wants Tennessee to beat Vandy badly. Yes. Yeah. To be able to strengthen their position.

[Bud Elliott]

Right.

[Chip Patterson]

What do we make of some of those changes near the bottom of the rankings? I think I mentioned this on Saturday night.

[Bud Elliott]

What you nailed it on Saturday night. Like, like you, you. No, no, it's just perfectly done.

[Tom Fornelli]

Well he was wrong about Texas. He misled us. He had Texas.

[Bud Elliott]

Well, I mean of the bottom of the bottom five he's like all right, Missouri probably gets back in and they'll just fill it up with. With. With G5 teams.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, right.

[Bud Elliott]

And totally just.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, that's it. There's just not. There's not a lot of. As I mentioned, there's just not a lot of great options. What you do see is more teams getting votes, and again, just not a consensus. We've had some weeks where the whole 65, 66 voters are basically dialed in on 28 teams. That is not the case as we've got, you know, Illinois, smu, Arizona State, Louisville, Iowa, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, all double digits receiving votes. You know, unlv, Arizona, Washington knocking on that door as well. So this week does have a larger collection of teams that voters are putting in spots. Number 22, 23, 24, 25. But the consensus did just spit out. You're North Texas. You're too Lane. Missouri and Houston getting in just ahead of Navy. I think that was the one that I was off on. Just 40 voting points separated those. All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

I got. I got one thing.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, yeah, that's right. You said you've got a different man.

[Tom Fornelli]

This guy. Look at him. He's just.

[Chip Patterson]

Wow, we got a lot to get to. We've got math. We do.

[Tom Fornelli]

I have. I wanted to. I. I got a little blind resume test for you boys. Mikey, if you could throw that graphic up that we made. These are five different seven, Illinois. These are five different seven and three teams. All right, I've got their record versus the current AP top 25, their average margin of defeat and their three losses, the number of power four wins that they have, and the combined conference record of the power four teams that they have beaten. Which teams there do you. Or let's start. Which one do you think deserves to be ranked the most based on that information?

[Danny Cannell]

Team.

[Bud Elliott]

Team B or C? Yeah, probably B.

[Tom Fornelli]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Now, what we don't have is what is the record of the teams they lost to.

[Tom Fornelli]

Correct. We don't. Because. We'll see in a minute. But just so you look at those resumes, because this is mostly just. This is the bottom of the top 25. I'm not going to lose sleep over any of these teams being ranked and any of them not being ranked. It's just a. Trying to make a point about what the. The body of voters do. So if, Mikey, if you want to reveal who the teams are.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, let's go.

[Tom Fornelli]

A and E. The two teams are ranked, Missouri and Tennessee, neither of whom have a win over a ranked team. Their average margin of defeat is comparable or worse than the other teams they have fewer Power 4 wins than Arizona State and Nebraska and the combined record of the teams that they have beaten from the power four is dog. But they remain ranked because. Not because they're in the sec, but because they started the season ranked and voters are lazy. So when they see a team lose if they had them ranked, they just move them down. They don't take the time to reconsider whether that team actually deserves to be ranked. They just keep them in and move them down. Meanwhile, teams like Louisville, Arizona State, Nebraska who didn't start ranked have to constantly prove themselves in any loss that they suffer shows that they never deserved to be there to begin with. And I would just argue, bud, because we were talking about we didn't show the record of the teams they've lost to because Missouri's is incredible. Like they've lost three ranked teams. Tennessee's. All their losses have come to ranked teams. But if the best thing about you is that you can't beat ranked teams, that kind of suggests maybe you don't deserve to be ranked.

[Chip Patterson]

First of all, let me echo Joey in the tailgate. Excellent exercise, Tom. I like, I like the way you love it. I like the way that you dug that together. I, I truthfully thought that Illinois was.

[Tom Fornelli]

Going to be team C. Definitely part of the plan. Yes, you left Illinois off.

[Chip Patterson]

You really baited me into that one. I didn't know their margin of defeat margin of victory stats, but I know that they've got the win over USC to their name. But to see this now, I will give for the Louisville side, it has been stinky. You have lost two games in a row and the team just doesn't look good. So if you just want to vibes wise, kick them to the curb. Even if the resume is still worthy of being ranked, I would understand that portion of the. Of the decision making.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I understand it. I'm just pointing out how alike all of these teams are. But the ones who were in the rankings are always going to get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to doing your rankings the next week.

[Bud Elliott]

Why am I blanking on Missouri's third loss? Bama A and M. A and M and vandy bandy. That's right.

[Chip Patterson]

17 to 10.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Danny, you had something.

[Danny Cannell]

Not on this because I love this. This is great exercise and just bias and preseason perception versus reality of what happens during the season.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. For those on the audio side, we always appreciate you this one. I. I'm not. You just need to go go check it out. YouTube.com cover3 Great work, Tom. Great work, Mikey. Putting that blind resume test.

[Tom Fornelli]

Shout out to Mikey.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, Nice. Nice.

[Tom Fornelli]

I just sent him a spreadsheet. He came back with that. Let's go.

[Chip Patterson]

Big, big day for production.

[Bud Elliott]

Mikey's probably like really today's day. Everybody wants graphics.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh yeah, for sure.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Sorry. Dk, do you have something else? Rankings wise, I was gonna play, I.

[Danny Cannell]

Was gonna say, I just had a question on BYU in general, where they are and the perception of them as far as the strength of schedule metric. Now I was somebody who backed BYU because they were beating everybody on their schedule and then they lost and it's kind of of soured somewhat. But the, the ESPN's FPI, which is a, you know, metric analytic that they use, they love BYU strength of schedule. And I was curious to know how much of a difference thing is between Georgia Tech's and BYU strength of schedule because I don't think they're that much different and yet they're pretty far apart and they've never been close here recently. Is it because just in general, I mean, I know their loss is worse. The new NC State team is not a good loss on, on the road, but if you just looked at their schedules, aren't they pretty similar?

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't think so.

[Bud Elliott]

I know, I, I know I, I think the bottom of the ACC is really, really horrid and Tech has, has got to play almost all those teams. Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, and then their non con was Colorado, Gardner, Web and Temple.

[Bud Elliott]

Now if you look at it, if you were to slide over on the FPI strength of schedule. If you look at remaining strength of schedule, Tech is actually the 17th toughest remaining schedule. So FBI strength of schedule is only looking at who you've played so far. Right. Like that that gap is going to narrow quite a bit. Like right now, BYU has played the 27th, the remaining is 28th. Tech has played the 88th and the remaining is 17th. Like that. That's going to close some.

[Danny Cannell]

But it's almost feel like it's too late for the gap that's between them for them to close it. I think Georgia Tech just has to win out or win the acc.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Which is probably the same for byu. Right.

[Chip Patterson]

Win out to at least.

[Danny Cannell]

I don't know if they lose the Texas.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean they, they smoke tcu. I, I am starting to consider like if, if we get some chaos, there's a chance BYU gets in as an 11 and 2. If they lost.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, well, I don't know. You think losing to the same. I. We've never seen that. Losing to the same team twice and getting in.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we did. Texas Longhorns did it last year.

[Tom Fornelli]

Even got to keep the five seed.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, they even got to have the highest, highest available at large bid. Granite, Texas and BYU playing different, different conversations typically. But yeah, I think that it is the chaos. Okay, before we get to the chaos and the tiebreakers, let's do jump into the College Football Playoff projection. Bud, why don't you walk us through the latest from the Bud bot. There you at.

[Bud Elliott]

Let's go. This version of the simulation has people mad. Okay, so standard disclaimers. I do not consider rematches in this. I just throw it out, right? Obviously. Like I don't think they would rematch Texas Tech and BYU for a third time. I think they'd find some kind of way to rig that. North Texas comes out on top of this. I think it's pretty much North Texas, Tulane or jmu. Again, I agree with Tom. I think it's very unlikely that they're going to put the Sun Belt team in just because like how many of those people in that committee room can name a team that JMU has beaten, right? Like probably not many. Okay. The Sunbelt does not have any real non conference wins so to speak of this year compared to what the American had. And I do think coaches in that room will value, you know, hey, USF beat a real team. Like some of these teams have actually stepped up and you know, in their mind like beat a team with, with playoff caliber athletes. The Florida winds doing quite a bit of work for that conference right now in some ways, like obviously you're beating Florida, you're beating Arkansas to you know, pretty bad SC teams but at least those teams, you know, they're spending some real money on the roster. Like the caliber of athlete is recognizable. I don't really think the Sun Belt has that. Okay, so in this case actually had Ohio State beating Indiana, Indiana keeping the two seed because I had Bama winning the sec. So Bama at three, that ruffled a lot of feathers and we probably need to discuss that because I might be very wrong on this. Right? But if Bama has the head to head win over Georgia, they've played I think the toughest SEC schedule among all the contenders and they would also have beaten an undefeated A M. Do we not think that Bama would get a buy and they would jump Georgia? Would you really put the SEC champion third among SC teams? Because A and M is going to keep a buy at 12 and one in this case, like I Had a lot of Georgia fans but no non Georgia fans. So I'm thinking this is Georgia bias. But again, I could be wrong on this. Right? You're trying to guess what a committee will do. Like if Bama wins the sec, are they not going to jump Georgia and get a buy? I, because you guys are not Georgia fans. You guys are unbiased against, you know, four against Georgia. This technically Georgia podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

Thank you for, thank you for remind. That was, that was important that you kept that top of mind.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I tend to think they would jump back up. Right. You get the road win at Auburn. Auburn is what a bowl team possibly in the sec. They'll probably get some credit for that. It's the Iron bowl, you know, all that kind of stuff. Then you're, you're the team that beats a 12, 0 Texas A&M team. I, I, I have yet to have any feedback from non Georgia fans that this is wrong. But I got a lot of feedback from Georgia fans that this is wrong.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, no, I think Alabama would jump on both.

[Chip Patterson]

I just think what you said about, I just don't see the SEC champion Getting the 5 seed correct. I think that's, I think that's a real easy. The data point. This quality win that Alabama gets a boost from that from this, the scenario that you just laid out. Texas A and M is in Atlanta with the 120 record. The Crimson Tide win the tiebreakers, go in there and beat them, then. Yeah, that's that, that to me is easy. Alabama ends up being the highest ranked SEC team in the eyes of the committee.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I think so as well. Let me see. Georgia Tech winning the SEC or the ACC and getting the 10 seed. Obviously this, this implies that Georgia beats them, which I do think will happen given Georgia Tech's defense. This time Oklahoma or this time Oregon beat usc. So USC did not make it. That's a change from last week. Had Ole Miss hosting Notre Dame this week. So kind of a little flip flop there. Pitt didn't look very good. I think Pitt catches another loss or two. If Oregon beats usc, that hurts Notre Dame's resume just a little bit. So again, Notre dame is the 8 or the 9 and Ole Miss as the 8, which sends Notre Dame on the road. That got a little bit of feedback. Also the thing that got the most feedback.

[Chip Patterson]

Oklahoma.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Was Oklahoma not being in like look in the models, guys. I'm just telling you this. You can look at pretty much any of the publicly available ones. Oklahoma's power rating dropped after that game because the offense Looked like complete garbage again. And they were out gained 2 to 1. And I know that they played defense in a way that could lead to slightly increased chance of turnovers. And Venables is a wizard at that. But also 212 to 406 yardage edge like this has Oklahoma losing again.

[Tom Fornelli]

Do you see the, the Connolly sp plus win expectancy for Oklahoma in that game?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, 4% makes a lot of sense, right? Like, like, yeah, it, if you think forcing turnovers has some kind of non random element, and I do. And we all have to agree.

[Chip Patterson]

Brent took some time to tell you that he believes that they were forced by his defense. And sure, the defense deserves credit for it.

[Bud Elliott]

Touchdown returns like that is completely random. Trust me. Like that's not like having better athletes can help. But within a given game. No. So yes. And of course pick six is they do lead to less offensive yards because it steals a drive from you. Let's go ahead and add 20 yards to Oklahoma's total because they were averaging about 22 yards per drive in that game. All right. So yeah, this has Oklahoma losing another game. They have to play Missouri and they have to play lsu. Still, if Oklahoma wins out, they're in.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I, I do not. I will make a prediction that Oklahoma wins out and ends up getting in there. And also. But as somebody who has besmirched the great name of Rich Clark and many committee members here on this podcast, you know, for the allegations that you throw out, that they're just trying to make a TV show, bud. Not taking one of the biggest winners of the weekend and throwing them out of your projected CFP model. That is a way to really drive up the interest in the intrigue. Like, let's find the. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

When I ran it, I was like, oh, this is going to do numbers. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

It's like what's the one team whose fans are the most happy? Yeah. Because I would argue that Oklahoma fans after that even more so than Georgia fans, you know, even more so than whoever else the biggest winners of the weekend were. Yeah. Even being behind a second Big 12 team. That would be, that would be insult to injury for a Sooner squad that is riding high here on November 17th.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

It's gonna be interesting to see like how far they would drop if they lost Missouri or Ortel issue.

[Danny Cannell]

They're what, a 10.9 and a half point favorite this weekend against.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. And I think part of that is the idea that Bopa Rula might play. He did warm up in shorts over the weekend. I know Zenith's Tweeted that there's some chance he's back again. If you play offense the way Oklahoma does and you play defense the way they play, almost any game is winnable. But also the potential to lose some games is really there because you just can't move the football.

[Chip Patterson]

Ain't losing.

[Danny Cannell]

I don't think they're losing either now.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't think they're losing. We'll see.

[Tom Fornelli]

They could lose.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, I, I, I bet him against Tennessee. I, I didn't bet Bama. Like, I, I'm not down on this Oklahoma squad. I just, like the offense just continues to not to not be even decent.

[Danny Cannell]

Listen, I think, I think they've kind of coached up material now, thankfully, to just not make the big mistake. And he did a pretty good job of that. But he was in some, you could tell he wanted to make some plays and he said, nope, let me just get down, you know, get back to the line of scrimmage and just get another down.

[Bud Elliott]

One thing you also really can't account for in this, and I would agree with you that the odds that they go undefeated are probably slightly higher than the odds that the pure numbers would say is that we don't really know, like, Oklahoma is going to come with an absolute home run effort for that final game if they've beaten Missouri. Right.

[Chip Patterson]

And what is LSU bringing to the table in the battle?

[Bud Elliott]

Like, can I actually bake in, you know, that idea? And look, I, material getting healthier. To me, he, he wasn't playing the position well when he was healthy. He was still missing a ton of reads. I, I don't buy that. Like, it's just coming off the injury. Like, like the brain's not, not getting healthier. Like totally the same stuff at Washington.

[Danny Cannell]

State and before he got hurt this year.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, right.

[Danny Cannell]

Exactly.

[Bud Elliott]

Like he.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

Listen, just. All right, so there's still so many.

[Chip Patterson]

Teams himself in Iowa, in Norman, Oklahoma, you know.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Every. Everything's crimson and cream. Iowa. Everything's Iowa. Welcome to College football in 2025. Iowa's 1.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't think that Texas Tech can jump Georgia now, given how badly Georgia thumped Texas.

[Tom Fornelli]

I agree. Especially because their next biggest win would be a team they've already beaten.

[Bud Elliott]

Correct.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

And we'll have, we'll have the, the in a little bit. We'll have the, the conference tiebreaker scenarios. But we've already heard plenty of Georgia fans already discussing how they'd be more than happy to get that five seed.

[Bud Elliott]

Absolutely. The only, the only real counter to this is yeah, like you have to play an extra game. Either be the SC championship game or this one, which would be North Texas. Your likelihood of injury to starter is greater in the SC championship game because you're going to have to play your starters for longer.

[Chip Patterson]

Correct.

[Bud Elliott]

But you do get the extra two weeks to heal up or three weeks to heal up. Right. If you got somebody dinged, you're not.

[Chip Patterson]

Coming right out of Georgia Tech into SEC championship. Instead you're going back and getting healthy for the 12 seed.

[Bud Elliott]

No, I was saying if you play the SC championship game and somebody gets dinged, you do have a couple more weeks to get to get healed up before the playoff as opposed to if you did get somebody dinged up against North Texas. You don't get, you don't get extra time to rest up before the next week's games.

[Chip Patterson]

I guess to your point, that is 12 days, December 20th to January 1st or December 31st.

[Bud Elliott]

Right. As opposed to December 5th to what? December.

[Chip Patterson]

Wait. If you play in the SEC Championship game, you get a long time.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

It's almost, isn't it?

[Bud Elliott]

Assuming you would still get a buy is 11 and 2. We haven't thought about this. If Georgia were to lose in the SC championship game, do they still get the buy?

[Tom Fornelli]

Depends how badly they lose and who they lose to.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, there's a couple. Most likely it would be Alabama.

[Tom Fornelli]

It also depends on where your race happens everywhere else.

[Danny Cannell]

What if you were in the top four like and they said they would not penalize and that was last year's committee, but they said they wouldn't penalize, you know, teams that made the conference championship game. If you were in the top four and you lost that game, why would you get penalized if you lost it?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, if Georgia were to go this title game and lose, I think there is some chance that Tech gets the four seed.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, there's a chance. I still think Georgia would end up getting it though.

[Chip Patterson]

I hear that.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Coming up on the other side, we've got to get into those conference tiebreaker scenarios. It is upon further review with that Heisman and more nukes.

[Tom Fornelli]

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[Bud Elliott]

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[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

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[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID three podcast, we do enjoy spending some time every single Monday going under the hood, we call it. Upon further review, there were terrible calls.

[Tom Fornelli]

Do we want to go ahead and.

[Chip Patterson]

Jump in after further review. After further review Further review. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. And yes, it is time for upon further review we're going to get started market with some conference title scenarios. Bud, you have done some hard work. You have put some math together. We've got graphics because yes, as we discussed in the College Football Playoff projection segment, things could get a little bit messy inside of the sec. So we've got some motivating factors, what teams are rooting for, and so much more. But when you were looking at the SEC conference title tiebreaker scenarios, what was starting to jump out of some of the big storylines? Teams to watch and more. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

So Mikey, hold on the graphic for a second. Let's run through the simple stuff. Okay, if A and M beats Texas, they're in. A and M is also in, obviously, if both Bama and Ole Miss lose their rivalry game. So if Auburn beats Bama and Mississippi State beats Ole Miss, that's pretty unlikely to get both though it's not impossible. Okay, Ole Miss is in if they win the Egg Bowl, Texas beats A and M and Auburn beats Alabama.

[Tom Fornelli]

Right.

[Bud Elliott]

In that case, Ole Miss would play Georgia. All right, so Georgia's in if Bama loses to Auburn or if A and M beats Texas. So those are like somewhat.

[Chip Patterson]

That's a poor scenario. Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Or if, you know, Ole Miss beats Mississippi State. Right. And Georgia would then have to win a three way tie with Alabama and Ole Miss based on the opponent winning percentage. This is where I think it gets interesting because I haven't seen anybody break this down yet. Apologies if somebody has, but I took the time to do it this morning. So Mikey, let's roll the graphic. All right, so currently Bama has a pretty decent lead on common opponent or sorry, on conference opponent winning percentage. Right. So that is the tiebreaker in the case in which we get A&MN and the three teams there at 7 and 1 in the league. Right. Which would be Bama, Georgia and Ole Miss Ole Miss schedule. No shot to get in in in this scenario. So it really comes down to Georgia Bama, and in this case Georgia needs. There are five or many games that will actually impact this, that involve opponents that they like. Both didn't play because obviously if they both played the team, it doesn't really matter. So we have Tennessee at Florida, Arkansas, Texas, Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Those are all this weekend. And on the final weekend, Missouri at Arkansas and Vandy at Tennessee. So I ran the model this morning. Georgia needs Kentucky in this scenario. Georgia needs Kentucky to beat Vandy and then three other outcomes for them here. Get it done. They. So you got to get four and one of them's got to be Kentucky beating Vandy. So you know, if they get Kentucky Vandy this weekend and Florida beats Tennessee, which is possible, Texas beats Arkansas, it's obviously extremely, you know, likely Arkansas upsets Missouri. Not really sure how much of an upset that is. Certainly some. And then Tennessee beats Vandy. So they need Kentucky over Vandy plus three of those other four I just mentioned to get in to have that strength of schedule be above Alabama's. There's like a lot of outcomes actually in which their, their opponents finish with the exact same record. And in that case, yes, like, yeah, I looked at it because I was like, what if they only get three? I ran it and in four of those ten scenarios, actually bam. And Georgia finished with the exact same conference opponent winning percentage. And then that triggers Bama over Georgia because Bama holds the head to head. So these are kind of the five games you need to watch if you're a Georgia fan and you got all eyes on Kentucky Vandy this weekend.

[Chip Patterson]

What about for the, what about for the Big ten?

[Bud Elliott]

Big Ten, Tom, did you look into this that much? Basically, it's like obviously it's, it's Indiana and Ohio State.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Bud Elliott]

You can look at all the scenarios you want.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, you haven't, you haven't looked at Michigan beats Ohio State, Ohio State got.

[Tom Fornelli]

One loss in conference and then Michigan.

[Chip Patterson]

Would only have one loss in conference and Michigan would have a head to head.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, but it could set up other scenarios. Right. Like if USC has defeated Oregon, then USC also finishes with one loss.

[Chip Patterson]

Right.

[Bud Elliott]

In conference.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Right.

[Bud Elliott]

So Michigan is not win and in.

[Chip Patterson]

Right? No, there's. There's a usc, Michigan, Ohio State, three way tie with one conference loss scenario. That gets very complicated.

[Bud Elliott]

Right, exactly.

[Tom Fornelli]

Chip, I just ran the numbers. It's Ohio State and Indian for what?

[Chip Patterson]

Even if Michigan beats Ohio State, I.

[Tom Fornelli]

Ran the numbers just now. It's Ohio State, it's Indiana.

[Chip Patterson]

So. So even in this. All right, now plug in new data here. Here, plug in new data. This time it is USC beats Oregon. Michigan beats Ohio State.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's Ohio State and Indiana. Okay, not compute.

[Danny Cannell]

Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

Beating Oregon computes. Michigan's not beating Ohio State.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, it's okay. All right, that's because interestingly enough, there are some Illinois factors in the Big Ten because if you do get to common opponent, we have a win for Illinois over usc, a loss for Illinois against Ohio State. So Ohio State could win against usc. There's also the head to head result that USC has against Michigan. However, if Michigan and USC and Ohio State are all in a three way tie, Michigan has a 1 and 1 record against the groups that are tied. Ohio State would have a 01 record against the teams that are tied. And then of course you would have that one and oh record for USC having not played Ohio State. But with a win against Michigan. The problem is, as you start to go down into the deeper tiebreaker scenarios, what happens is Michigan gets booted out because of its loss to usc and therefore Ohio State would end up getting in ahead of them. Ohio State has played a slightly tougher conference draw than USC has and that would allow for. Excuse me, then Michigan.

[Tom Fornelli]

Wait, hold on, Chip, the numbers have been run. It's Ohio State versus Indiana, right?

[Bud Elliott]

Now look, if USC wins out and Michigan beats Ohio State, that's what I'm suggesting. It's Indiana, usc. I'm fairly certain on this you would need a lot of help because in that scenario, if all other favorites win, which is probably just the, like the easiest way to do this, USC's conference opponents would have a 48 winning percentage and Michigan's would have a 38. So that's a decent number. Like we would need an additional, probably four results to go in Michigan's favor.

[Chip Patterson]

Tom, what I'm telling you is that Ohio State has a chance to lose in Ann Arbor and get themselves booted from the Big Ten title game.

[Tom Fornelli]

Chip, Ohio State will be in the Big Ten title game. That's what I am telling you. But I don't know if you watched Michigan against Northwestern this week. Ohio State, we watched them last year.

[Bud Elliott]

All year too.

[Tom Fornelli]

We watched last year. I know, I know you did, but trust me.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, okay. Ohio State and Indiana. Yes, careening towards that opportunity. That if you go to look in the Big 12, man, there's a big host of teams that are rooting for losses. Unfortunately for Utah, for my money, probably the best of Those teams and certainly the highest ranked outside of Texas Tech and BYU. The Utes have the head to head loss to BYU and they have the head to head loss to Texas Tech. That makes it extremely difficult because any head to head tiebreaker there is going to end up going against the Utes. Houston also sitting there at two losses and Arizona State, however slim because of that victory against Texas Tech, Arizona State does potentially have a path to the college, I mean, excuse me, path to the Big 12 title game. Cincinnati also tied there in third place with 5 and 2. Cincinnati has a massive game coming up this weekend against byu. That is the only opportunity to keep its slimming conference title hopes alive.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm like trying to play with this and I'm really not even sure I can get to a combination that gets Michigan's conference opponents to a higher percentage than USC's. If USC wins out and Michigan meets Ohio State. Like, I, I, I mean I just, like I just flipped Nebraska, Iowa, I just flipped Washington, Oregon, I, I, you know, Michigan State beating Iowa, which probably not super likely. Even in that case, like you're still got, got USC is, I mean 410 higher. Like they probably need a lot more than four results. I was kind of spitballing on four results. Michigan might need to like run the straight to get in over USC and.

[Chip Patterson]

The tom bot 4000 again declaring Michigan will not beat Ohio State.

[Tom Fornelli]

Hold on, let me run the numbers one more time. Yeah, no Ohio State's gonna beat Michigan.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't think we're assuming USC over Oregon. It's just it again like we are creating.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, Oregon winning is cleaner. Oregon finishing with one conference loss and that one conference loss being to Indiana is the, is like a very clean way for this to end in terms of the Big Ten picture. And of course Ohio State and Indiana for the Big Ten is the most intriguing and exciting conference title game. I mean that is something where all season long there has been, you know, not as many of these top teams getting to clash against each other just based on the way that the top tier of the Big Ten is shaken out and the way that those schedules were set up for this particular season. Ohio State against Indiana for the Big Ten title would be awesome. And I, I am, that's what I am rooting for in the Big Ten.

[Bud Elliott]

Also, Michigan would not be in over Oregon if they both went out guys. So Indiana would be in at undefeated. Oregon's conference winning percentage of their opponents is over.500. I really don't think there's any possible Combination of games that allows Michigan to make up 0.13 in the win percentage column over the final two weeks.

[Chip Patterson]

Now, down in the Atlantic Coast Conference, where Georgia Tech and Virginia are currently tied in first place with six and one conference records each with one conference game remaining, the Pitt Panthers and the SMU Mustangs are at five and one. We do have. If you want to look a little bit further down in the standings, there is. You know, you've got. Still got Miami at 4 and 2. You still got Duke at 4 and 2. Louisville officially eliminated from ACC title contention mathematically with their loss. So that's about where you're. You're drawing the line. And I think we can draw the line a little higher to Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, smu, all those four teams with one loss. What is likely, what is expected, and what are the big hiccups or pivot points in that title race?

[Tom Fornelli]

This is not.

[Bud Elliott]

I did think about trolling Mikey just to have him make an insane graphic, but I ran out of time because I wanted to make sure I had the SEC right. So Georgia Tech beats pit. They're in. Okay. I think that there's some chance Georgia Tech can lose that game and get in, but I can't figure out what it is.

[Chip Patterson]

That'S easy for Georgia Tech. Win and in.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. What about the Virginia side?

[Bud Elliott]

So Virginia needs to obviously beat Green Tech. Okay. They need SMU to lose one more time. So SMU plays Louisville and Cal. That's certainly possible. And they need Pitt to lose one more time, which would be the Georgia Tech or Miami.

[Chip Patterson]

Does Virginia face a pit? Does. So Virginia needs Pittsburgh to lose one of their two final games. Does Virginia face a situation where it would lose the tiebreaker to pit?

[Bud Elliott]

This one's really, really complicated, actually. I. I don't know.

[Tom Fornelli]

Okay, hold on. I just ran the numbers. The winner of the ACC will lose by 25 in the first round of the playoff.

[Danny Cannell]

Wow.

[Chip Patterson]

Disrespectful.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, no. What's disrespectful is pretending the ACC matters.

[Chip Patterson]

Listen, you know what, Tom? I've had enough of you. It is week 13. This is the last full week of college football. You know, then we're going to get disrupted by rivalry week and holidays and a. And a slate that is spread out across Thursday, Friday and Saturday. This is the time to appreciate college football. We are not building gated communities tomorrow, okay? We are not trying to keep people out of college football enjoyment.

[Tom Fornelli]

Ok. What are the TV ratings for these ACC games?

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know.

[Tom Fornelli]

Nobody cares they don't matter my name. Danny, you've been arguing about how the G5 shouldn't be having an automatic spot in the playoff. Why the hell does the ACC deserve an automatic bid?

[Danny Cannell]

I said if the Duke scenario played out, take it away from him. I am totally fine with that.

[Tom Fornelli]

Just give him the hell out of my.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm with Danny on his idea that, like, you need to be a certain minimum ranking to get in. Yeah, Like, I don't even think a top 20.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah. Or I would say top 16. Wasn't that the number they used to use for the New Year's six for the group of five?

[Chip Patterson]

Honestly, why.

[Tom Fornelli]

Why not just pick the playoff teams before the season starts? Like, what if we just go off of TV ratings? Like, whoever draws the best ratings total at the end of the year or average? Because some teams will play more than others, and we have to keep it fair. We just take the top 12 teams in TV ratings and we put them in. Has anybody thought of this?

[Chip Patterson]

Yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

We got to give the people what they want.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes. No. What happened is Tom gave this presentation to the College Football Playoff executive directors, and because they are men and women of integrity, they. They said no. And they said, we are going to have championship decided on the field. We need results.

[Tom Fornelli]

Just saying. I'm so sick and tired of arguing about teams winning games and who they lost to. Let's just go by who watches them.

[Bud Elliott]

Miami can still get in.

[Danny Cannell]

I think that's the best case scenario for the acc.

[Tom Fornelli]

Not if we go by home attendance, but by ratings, maybe.

[Chip Patterson]

No, the. Because the. It's. Miami wins out. And also because Miami winning out would mean you've got the win against pit, so you get them out. But they need SMU to lose so that they're not in any kind of tiebreaker scenario with smu.

[Bud Elliott]

Correct.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

And they. But they. They actually need SMU to lose specifically to. No, no. They need SMU to beat Louisville. And then they still need. They need SMU to beat Louisville, I think, to. To rig the common opponent or like the conference opponent strength thing. And then they need Cal to beat smu. So you literally need cat. Like, you can't just be Louisville beating smu.

[Danny Cannell]

It's got to be Cal an smu. Correct me if I'm wrong. Aren't they one of the ACC teams that controls their own destiny? They went out. They're in the ACC title. But I hear that wrong last week.

[Bud Elliott]

No, because they got it. They got to win out. And then they still need. I think. And look, this Is really complicated. I could have done this wrong. All right. But I think they need to win out which is Louisville and Cal. I'm pretty sure they have to have Pitt beat Georgia Tech if they want to. This I that may not be correct. I. I'm not sure I have this 100%. Like this is pretty damn complicated.

[Chip Patterson]

Do we want to bring back divisions or do we like tiebreakers? Chat let us know. Give us a Y or N. Do you like the tiebreaker chaos and confusion?

[Bud Elliott]

I think with a 17 team league where the schedule strengths are so disparate, I would really consider going to in the absence of like a head to head highest rated like college football playoff.

[Tom Fornelli]

Team.

[Chip Patterson]

Instead of doing the. Because basically all of these are coming down to the opponent's strength of schedule situation which is as you mentioned, imbalanced schedules makes it very difficult.

[Danny Cannell]

You do away with conference championship games and you have that final weekend where you have your top four teams play.

[Tom Fornelli]

What if we just took the 12 teams that get the highest ratings and we put them in a conference and have them play around.

[Bud Elliott]

The American uses this by the way like the American uses the college ball playoff rankings, I believe.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

ACC uses an internal metric provided by Sports Source Analytics.

[Bud Elliott]

Did David Hale do this?

[Tom Fornelli]

What if we take the 32 teams that get the best TV ratings put them into 216 team conferences but then we break those conferences into 14 divisions and then we schedule based on playing in your division and also where you finished in the last season and getting cross division rotation and let them draft.

[Danny Cannell]

Let them have a draft out of.

[Tom Fornelli]

High school of, of from all the other loser schools. They can take their best players. Every year we'll hold a draft. If you're a loser school who's not in this super cool league you going to lose your player. But we'll give you 20 bucks for him.

[Bud Elliott]

If, if David actually did this with all possible combinations, I mean hats off to him. That is tremendous work.

[Tom Fornelli]

I fear for David.

[Bud Elliott]

I looked at his Twitter account. I didn't see it.

[Tom Fornelli]

The man spends far too much time thinking about the acc. It cannot be good for you.

[Chip Patterson]

The Mountain west has had it go all the way down to that seventh or eighth tiebreaker. That is the internal power rating metric provided by Sports Source analytics to determine who's going to play in the Mountain west title game. That happened I believe two years ago. So it's, it is not uncommon or unheard of the fact that you would get all the way down to those levels. And yes, the last final tie breaking procedure I know. In the ACC commissioner draw. We're flipping a coin in Charlotte, baby. Carol, could you imagine? I mean we. We already got cameras in there for all of the officials. Right. You know, so.

[Bud Elliott]

So it finally started blow. They finally started getting some calls wrong this weekend on that thing and just like, all right, cool, whatever, it's on video, but we're just not going to discuss it on the broadcast.

[Danny Cannell]

That was.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey, we appreciate the transparency. Right. Again, these are all the. The things that we are going to be tracking as we look ahead to week 13. Setting a little context for the football that is going to be played. Speaking of the football, now it's time for the brilliantly boring wins of the week.

[Bud Elliott]

We forgot Big 12. Is it a bit or 12?

[Danny Cannell]

That's because you hate them, bud.

[Chip Patterson]

I thought I said it. It's hard to get. We were presenting the. Cincinnati. We were presenting the. The teams that want to jump up into the. The Texas Tech, BYU realm mentioned the byu. Did we skip it? I didn't think we skipped it.

[Bud Elliott]

I thought we skipped the like. So Texas Tech obviously controls on destiny. BYU does as well. Even like Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, Utah, all those teams are still alive. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

So I said Arizona State still has a small path thanks to having the head to head win against Texas Tech. They obviously need a little bit of help to be able to.

[Bud Elliott]

I wasn't sure we were doing like. Like to chop it for a segment.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. Oh, I mean, do you have it. Do you have more on the math there?

[Bud Elliott]

A little bit, but not much. I. We can move it on, but it's probably like going to come down to the final weekend.

[Chip Patterson]

How so laid out.

[Bud Elliott]

Like just with all the games we have this weekend, it's going to be like less complicated after this weekend.

[Chip Patterson]

So which ones?

[Bud Elliott]

Like all of them. Literally like you, you taught or. Sorry, BYU sensei matters like that. That one's gonna matter quite a bit actually. Yeah, I don't think BYU is going to lose to ucf, but they could. I guess in theory they could.

[Chip Patterson]

What about that Arizona State path?

[Bud Elliott]

It's really freaking complicated. So let me pull this back up. This is great show. My bad. Where are we at here? Okay, so for Arizona State. Okay, wrong tab. All right. They can basically like get in if. If they think they need Houston to lose.

[Danny Cannell]

Yep.

[Bud Elliott]

Right. And Utah to lose again and then BYU obviously to lose and they need to win their. They need to win out and then it comes down to like common opponents and it's just a freaking mess. Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Sorry.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

This is a Mess.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, the, the thought that really is standing out to me is the fact that Utah is the team that you would trust the most to be able to execute what needs to be executed down the stretch to be able to make it in. And yet they have head to head losses to the teams that are currently in first and second place. So the loss of Texas Tech, the loss to byu, any kind of tiebreaker scenarios, you're just going to be, you're going to be stuck on the outside looking in from, from most of those. There's just not enough weeks left to play. The Houston side of it is particularly interesting, especially because you've got the head to head loss to Texas Tech, which could hurt you, but obviously nothing against byu. The loss to West Virginia, while it is very damning on its face, it is not necessarily. Well, actually it is damning because that's the common opponent lost to byu. So common opponent could end up being the one that makes West Virginia keeping Houston out of the Big 12 title game.

[Bud Elliott]

So real clean here. If, and this is an insane thing to say in the Big 12, if all the favorites win and since he beats BYU, then it would be Texas Tech, Arizona State.

[Chip Patterson]

Is Arizona State favored against Arizona?

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, playing of course. I mean he's an NFL quarterback, Kenning Dillingham says.

[Bud Elliott]

But probably not by much. Right?

[Tom Fornelli]

Like no, like, probably like two points.

[Bud Elliott]

If you have Arizona State fair. I'm not gonna, not gonna disagree with that.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like it might just. Is the game at. It is the game in Tempe, it might just be home field that gets them favored.

[Chip Patterson]

The game is in Tempe. Yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. With. Without Leavitt, it might just be the home field advantage. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

So again you, you do have clean Texas Tech, BYU handle business. You mentioned the BYU Cincinnati game. Absolutely massive coming up this weekend. Texas Tech, they are almost done. For those who weren't aware they are off in week 13, they closed the regular season at West Virginia. You take care of West Virginia, you finish with an 8 and 1 conference record that as you very much, you know, positioned in and clinched for the Big 12 title game. BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona State, Cincinnati, all in the mix in the Big 12.

[Bud Elliott]

If like Utah right now is the biggest scentsy fan. So if Cincy takes down BYU and tcu, then Utah would go against Texas Tech because they would have the highest common opponent winning percentage among the other four, seven and two teams.

[Chip Patterson]

Nuts. All right, we're good.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I just ran the math. I just ran the math. Texas Tech's gonna win the Big 12.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, got it.

[Chip Patterson]

And now it's time for the brilliantly boring Wins of the Week brought to you by PNC bank where we highlight the boring actions that make the biggest difference. Because PNC bank helps you keep your money simple. So it's there for every adventure that calls your name. And sometimes we have highlighted some 6 to 3 or 17 to 10, you know, brilliantly boring in maybe saying that it was low scoring. But no, sometimes brilliantly boring is just, you know, jumping out to a 423 lead, putting your opponent in the dirt, just making sure that you are doing these simple things correctly. Like 506 total yards of offense, like 2 on the balance of 294 passing, 212 rushing. Yes, these are the stats that we saw from the Washington huskies in a 49 to 13 win over Purdue that it was efficient. 18 of 22 passing 5.3 yards per rush. It was efficient when it comes to third down seven of 10 for the Washington offense. Purdue not a team that was favored as they hit the road to go play in Husky Stadium, but Washington was just over on it from the jump. Tom, what did you see out of the Washington Huskies that made brilliantly boring look so good?

[Tom Fornelli]

I saw a team that did a very good job of bouncing back from like a soul crushing loss the week before on the road to Wisconsin because like that was a loss that knocked Washington out of the playoff hunt. And you would think that you've seen teams sometimes, especially late in the year when you suffer a loss like that, they kind of check out for the rest of the year and they had an excuse because, you know, they did not have, you know, Jonah Coleman in this game. But they went home. They brought in a Purdue team that was easy to overlook and they just took care of business right from the jump. It was over very quickly. They played well, they stomped him out and it was just a brilliantly boring blowout.

[Chip Patterson]

Brilliantly boring blowouts. We love to see it, especially in a bounce back spot. Those were the brilliantly boring wins of the week brought to you by PNC bank. Brilliantly boring since 1865 brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Inc. PNC Bank National association member FDIC coming up on the other side, more upon further review and more nukes.

[Bud Elliott]

Intensidad justable ademases calefacionado. Pareser extravagante y dos Bueno a un mas Peru Cuando es a sillas de masaes bien en conun auto se vuelben bastante practicas el Volkswagen taeguan confuciones premium como los acientos de la teros con masaje disponibles solo parese extravagante. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast Smart move. Being financially savvy Smart move. Another smart move having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and.

[Chip Patterson]

Eligibility vary by state. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast, Tom, you mentioned you had an upon further review that you wanted to mention. Where would you like to take our attention?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I mean the point of upon further review is for us to maybe put fresh eyes and reconsider things that we say on the reaction show on Saturday night or we discussed in the reaction show on Saturday night and sometimes even Danny shows up and has something to reconsider. But not this week. What I propose to you three is are we sure Texas lost? Because since Saturday night I have heard from a lot of Texas fans who want me to know that my characterization of them getting their ass kicked by Georgia is completely wrong.

[Chip Patterson]

I think it was beat the piss out of them was the quote.

[Tom Fornelli]

I think that might have been the quote. Yeah, but it was mostly that I said the game was over quickly. Texas fans were want me to know that the game was 14 to 10 to start the fourth quarter. They were totally in that game. What they don't want me to bring up is that Georgia scored what was the game winning touchdown the second that gave him 14 points with 43 minutes left to play. But Texas fans don't want to consider is that from that point on they never had the ball again within a one score possession game. They never had the ball with a chance to tie the game or take the lead. They keep bringing up that it was 14:10 at the end of the third quarter. What they don't mention is that it was still 14 to 10 at the end of the third quarter because after they got the touchdown on the short field after the Stockton interception To make it 14 to 10, Georgia had the ball and ran out the final minutes of the third quarter. And then after the commercial break when the fourth quarter started, Georgia scored a touchdown 45 seconds later to make it 21 to 10. And then Georgia did an onside kick, got the ball back and scored again to make it 28 to 10. But I just want you to know from what I am told, Texas had all the momentum and they were in that game the whole time. Just, just lost by 25. But it was a close 25 point loss. And I just want to know what you guys think.

[Chip Patterson]

I think that the Texas Longhorns will be tested for their team maturity when Arkansas comes to town in a hangover letdown spot. He got Texas A and M on deck. Our Texas conversations could get real easy. Real easy. If Bobby Petrino can do the funniest thing.

[Tom Fornelli]

I also want to say I was kind of bitchy there to Texas fans and I'm sorry, I don't really mean it. I know what you're going through right now. You just lost to Georgia for the third time in two years. Texas A M is undefeated.

[Bud Elliott]

Kirby Smart is trolling you.

[Tom Fornelli]

Kirby's trolling you. Texas Tech has one loss and will be in the College Football Playoff. North Texas might be in the College Football Playoff. And you're kind of just wondering where you are in the world right now, where you are in the Lone Star State. So I get it. You guys are kind of going through it. So you're lashing out. And I want you to know that if you need somebody to talk to about it, I'm here for you. I am. I'm always here for you. Everybody.

[Chip Patterson]

Now guess.

[Bud Elliott]

But I mean like that, that trolling was like directly related to Justice Terry in my opinion.

[Chip Patterson]

Explain for those who didn't catch it.

[Bud Elliott]

So Georgia won an absolute war for Justice Terry. Five star defensive lineman out of Manchester or sorry, Texas beat Georgia last year for in state. Five star defensive lineman Justice Terry with I think what a lot of industry people think was like a whoa, nil size package. And Georgia was pretty salty over that. Again, like they don't typically lose five stars from their backyard. And Kirby's like, hey, we're not all about taking the check. Like we're gonna give you a check. But you come here to work and it's toughness. If you, if you have the check and no work, what do you have? Like, I, I think that was 100 related to that.

[Chip Patterson]

I agree with him also. I don't care if he's trolling. I, I think that in this era there is, there is starting to be more of the divide. There's the teams that spend and the teams that win. Those are not necessarily the same. And it's Georgia's not lacking for resources. They're no little underdog. But Kirby, like, what would we always used to Hear about the Saban discount, right. Get to go play for Nick Saban. Georgia probably loses some recruits, some individuals that don't want to take a Georgia discount related to market value. But if Georgia's able to say okay, Georgia might be able to weed some players out by playing.

[Bud Elliott]

Like it's not like you can go to, it's not like if you go to Texas you don't get drafted on the D line. I don't think Justice Terry made a bad choice to take the biggest bag live in Austin and like Texas sending D line into the league non stop.

[Chip Patterson]

So yeah, I mean if your only goal is to, to get to the league, get paid, sure. But if you want to win championships, come on down. Come on down to death row. I think that's what he was saying right there. All right, I got. Let's. We, we mentioned the, where Texas could be at the end of this. Of course Arch Manning started the season at the top of the Heisman odds board. How, how are, I know we've got some, some voters here, so obviously I'm not asking anybody to reveal any of their thinking on their ballots, but how do you see the Heisman race right now? Hey, I'm not trying to get my vote taken.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean I'm sure as the hell not betting Mendoza at even money or slightly, you know, minus odds. Right. Like how many points do you think they're going to score against against Ohio State? You know, I, I think the winner of the Big Ten championship game is pretty likely the quarterback of that game is probably going to win Heisman. So I, I don't think there should be like that kind of gap where you're getting 220 on saying and 100 on Mendoza. Personally I know Mendoza has better numbers but when they play each other like that's going to be the last result that people see. Especially if saying goes and gets the Michigan bear off of Ohio State's back. And you could throw a Michigan this year a little better than you could in prior years.

[Danny Cannell]

So.

[Bud Elliott]

That feels a little, a little mispriced to me. Not saying it's like massively mispriced. The other one is, is Ty Simpson and I know they just lost and I know he threw a back breaking pick in that game. But like if, if Bama wins the SEC, Simpson's gonna finish most likely with what like 36, 3700 yards and probably like a 30 to 3 touch to interception ratio.

[Chip Patterson]

They can't rather, I'd rather have like.

[Bud Elliott]

He'S 150 to 1.

[Chip Patterson]

That's. I mean, that's the, the betting market in the wake of a loss. I don't, I don't think that those are. I mean, I know that there's. I know, I know there are limits based on implied probabilities there, but I think I'd rather have Haynes King than Ty Simp.

[Bud Elliott]

What's King's price? 33.

[Tom Fornelli]

I just don't see Haynes King. I mean, I guess if he has a great game against Georgia.

[Danny Cannell]

Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

Title wins the acc. He could get like a, like hero.

[Chip Patterson]

Stuff too, you know, like those.

[Danny Cannell]

Which is kind of how he has to play.

[Bud Elliott]

200, 150, you know, is Georgia more ready for what Georgia Tech does this year? Because so many other teams have copied what Tech did to them last year. So they've seen it quite a bit.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know. I mean, linebackers are pretty important. They've been losing some linebackers.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

What about Gunner Stockton? Because he's been great in big games. I just don't know if he has statistics to back it up. But we talked about the tie breaking scenarios. I think he'd have to play in the SEC championship and win it. I think Marcel Reed's still in the conversation, but I'm with you, bud. I still think it'll be the winner of the Big Ten championship game, but I still think Marcel Reed has a chance.

[Chip Patterson]

Are there any. Is there anybody else? Does Jacob Rodriguez show up as a finalist?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, that's. No, he might get. He'll get there as a finalist because I. How do I put this without. This is not insulting to Jacob Rodriguez, who is a very good player. Player for the Texas Tech Red Raiders and he's an outstanding linebacker and he's having an outstanding season. But there are, and you see it every year, there's like a hipster push online for this and there are a lot of voters who kind of fall to the hipster. I'm just going to vote for this guy to be cool. So I could say that I did. So I do think he will end up as a finalist. I do not think he has a chance to win it. And again, this is not about him. I just think that if you really think a linebacker is going to win the Heisman Trophy, I've got a bridge in New York to sell you.

[Chip Patterson]

Aiden Hutchinson was a finalist. Right. You know, obviously, you know, Indomicang sue comes to mind. You know, he was a Heisman finalist. Manta Teo was a Heisman finalist. If I remember correctly. None of those really sniffed winning the award, but all, all finalists. There's, there's definitely a potential. Also some of the names that we mentioned, all from kind of the same region. For all the talk about splitting votes between Sayan and Mendoza, that's, that's a lot of names in the south without a real coalition behind any one of them. Because to get out my big election board map, Heisman votes are split in six different regions across the United States. It is not 100% even votes per region, but it's, it is close enough that it seems to be pretty significant. We're looking for, looking for any west coast contenders out there and then also seeing who would be the, the real star to emerge from a crowded group. A Ty Simpson, a Gunner Stockton, a Marcel Reed, a Haynes King. Like all of those, I think Diego Pavia, you know, like, I think all those would be chewing from the same group there in the south, in the more southern regions along the way. Anybody else we should have our eyes.

[Bud Elliott]

On, like, Pavi is interesting. I, I guess it. I, I like to take a look and say, like, hey, what are your, like, what are your playoff odds compared to what the winner's odds are? Right. What are your SC championship odds? What are your Big Ten championship odds compared to what like that quarterback's odds are. And look for kind of like model it out and say, okay, what, you know, if Georgia wins the sec, how does that, like, price compare to what Stockton is. You know, I don't think it applies for King. I mean, King's probably not going to win it if he doesn't win the ACC and beat Georgia.

[Chip Patterson]

I think. Yeah, well, I. Mendoza has done ever. I mean, Mendoza, truly. We might even need a heat check. Not a heat check, but we might even need a second look at what exactly Mendoza is doing by Indiana standards. What Indiana is doing by Indiana standards. We have very quickly come to accept as normal what is 100% abnormal throughout all of college football history. So him being who he is at that program, I think there's going to be some. There's, there's probably some rarity to that that might give him an edge over. Oh, the Ohio State quarterback's good.

[Bud Elliott]

Right?

[Chip Patterson]

You know, I think that that could be a big.

[Tom Fornelli]

Also, I, I do wonder because, like every Saturday or early Sunday morning at the same time, I'm getting two separate emails from Ohio State's Sid. One is for saying for Heisman. The other is Jeremiah Smith. Now, obviously Ohio State has to hype them both up, but does hyping them both hurt the other's chances of winning since you'll probably be splitting some of the vote because you're automatically causing people to right away to immediately consider, well, who's the bigger factor on this team.

[Chip Patterson]

This season? I give it to saying, see, this.

[Tom Fornelli]

Is not an insult of. Well, I can't really talk about this. Never mind.

[Danny Cannell]

Come on, say it.

[Chip Patterson]

If I'm saying if I was the sports information director at Ohio State and we were in a meeting and we were trying to decide what we're going to do to, you know, pull everyone together to make sure we're all getting behind one candidate, I would, I would pick Saying. But that would be.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, if you want one to win, I would. Yeah, I, I agree with that. But I would just factor in and I say this. Every single quarterback who is being mentioned for the Heisman Trophy has at least one great receiver that they're throwing to every single one of them. Yeah, but when you watch highlights of Ohio State every year, who's the guy in the highlight every time?

[Bud Elliott]

German.

[Tom Fornelli]

Exactly. So if we were. If the award is going to go to the actual most outstanding player in the country, there's a very solid argument that Julian Saying is not the most outstanding player on his own team. And I think Julian Saying is an outstanding player. I just don't think he's the most outstanding player on the Ohio State offense. Spectacular happen every single week.

[Danny Cannell]

And that is how Devonte Smith won the Heisman for Alabama because Mac Jones was awesome and had a really good year. But everybody started saying, well, he's not the best player on the team.

[Chip Patterson]

Smith was also, I think ran a couple punts back in big games later in the year, too. The rest of that wide receiver room was falling apart because of injuries and he just kind of had to carry the mantle. I, I understood that decision. One last Mendoza note here. It's kind of very much a soft factor situation. But you know, Danny Tom especially, you know, because I know that you also cover the NFL draft, like, are. Fernando Mendoza is going to be an interesting character to be at the center of the football universe. He is an interesting dude. You know, like, he's. Yeah, it's not like there's a, there's not an, there's not necessarily an absence of any X factor there. In fact, there's almost even more. But he's just, he's up on the book and he's just, he gets really excited about it and he definitely like takes a lot of the, A lot of the energy that that comes from the coaches. And I mean we remember 99 yards with the boys. But I've been watching these Fernando post game media availabilities and he is like ripping through yards and down in distance and blocking assignments and.

[Danny Cannell]

I was gonna say Andrew Lucky.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. Cousins.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. I, I don't, I don't know if the NFL's ready. They've just been like, you know, going crazy over his measurables for years. But he's going to get put in front of a lot of microphones over the course of the next 12 months or, you know, eight, nine months or whatever it is he is. He's going to be a fascinating main character. That's the thing. Fernando Mendoza is about to be a main character in the football world and it is going to be a lot of fun to be able to see how everyone reacts to it.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, but he'll get NFL'd.

[Chip Patterson]

You think so?

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, God, yeah, they will. I mean, the NFL teams have people who will tell you what you're supposed to say and what you're not supposed to say. I don't know.

[Chip Patterson]

The guy who's out there be like, I mean, I would die on that field for that team. Are you kidding me?

[Tom Fornelli]

He's not playing for an NFL team right now. Trust me. Once he gets to the NFL and he's got to go to that immediate press conference because every quarterback does has to go every single week. Stand up and answer those same questions, brother. It will be beaten out of them quick. It'll just be a lot of yes and no and five word answers.

[Chip Patterson]

I listen. Stay. You. Come on, Fernando, stay.

[Tom Fornelli]

Be you.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I, I very much enjoy watching the spirit, the energy that you, that you bring to the game. Let's see, we got, I got one.

[Danny Cannell]

I got one. Upon further review, I'm sure you guys have noticed this. You might even said it in the reaction show. But has anyone else noted a decidedly there's a shift in sentiment from Ole Miss fans to Lane Kiffin. Lane Kiffin backers. Because about a month ago when his name was hot and they were winning, everybody was loving Lane Kiffin. He's ours. He beats Oklahoma. He says, I'm not leaving. They're like, hey, he's ours. It is getting to the point where I think they're tired of the cute answers and the sidestepping and the distractions. And I don't know about you guys, but I think we've all probably been in relationships where there's a, you know, girl you've been had dry on, you've been dating for a while. And it comes to that point where.

[Chip Patterson]

It'S time to take the relationship. Oh, sorry. Yes.

[Danny Cannell]

It's either it's time to poop or get off the pot is usually the way the term goes. I think we're approaching that with Ole Miss, where their. Their administration is getting a little bit irritated as well. And I think this thing could come to a. A real kind of headbutting situation where Lane Kiff is going to be put on the spot and say, all right, it's time. Either put a ring on this finger or go find another one. And I think it'll be insane to see what happens if he does go somewhere else or if he says, I'm not ready. And I don't know if he is ready. I thought he was staying. The longer it draws out, the more I'm like, know what? Maybe he is waiting for another opportunity.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't want to get romantic, but I do think, like, love and marriage is really just finding that one person whose annoyances don't bother you that much, like the annoying crap they do. You're just like, yeah, I can live with that.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't. I. I don't. I don't love that it's happened, but I have recognized that as well. Danny, like, Ole Miss is going to have a good football coach in 2026. It might be Lane Kiffin. It might not be Lane Kiffin, but we are bigger than him. You know, like this. That talk is like preparing yourself to.

[Danny Cannell]

Get left, which I actually hope they like. If he's not willing to commit, I would actually stand up and applaud and say, good for you guys for taking a stand.

[Chip Patterson]

This is Tennessee Nico all over again, but with, like, tens of millions of dollars instead of couple millions of dollars. And the head coach in the future of the program, I mean, that's. No one's bigger than the power T. Josh hyple. You know, 2025 is big. That kind of energy right now, I.

[Bud Elliott]

Think there's going to be some.

[Danny Cannell]

What's that?

[Tom Fornelli]

Let's ask if I can give some couples counseling to those Ole Miss fans right now. Listen, I know you're mad at Lane, and I know you're getting kind of annoyed, but you're mad at the wrong person in this relationship. The person you should be mad at is Jimmy Sexton, because Jimmy Sexton is the one instructing Lane Kiffin not to make a statement about his plans right now because he is trying to get Lane a raise, and he's got to use the leverage of the Florida job. The LSU job and all that stuff to make sure Lane gets the biggest raise possible. It's just typical agent games.

[Danny Cannell]

But see, here's where I would disagree. I think there is an offer that's a substantial raise that would make Lane Kiffin, you know, one of the high top five, top three, whatever it is.

[Tom Fornelli]

And I don't think it's on the table yet.

[Danny Cannell]

I think it is and I don't think Lane is signing it. And that's why I think you get to this point where it's like, all right, we've gone high enough, take it or leave it. And I think there's. I think this cycle is going to even more wild than we think because I think there's a couple. I think Lane and I think some other coaches have their eyes on jobs that are not open.

[Tom Fornelli]

But if that offer is on the table. Are any of Jimmy Sexton's clients still in the running for the Florida and LSU gigs? Needs that to be open as long as he can to get the most money out of those jobs, even if it's not for Lane Kiffin. And Lane Kiffin being off the market immediately makes his client that's trying to get one of the other jobs gives them a little less leverage.

[Chip Patterson]

I will say it's important to point out the schedule. Ole Miss is off this week and I have heard people say you're your off week is a great time to get it done, finalize an extension and get it done. If we get into Thanksgiving and the Egg bowl and there still is no extension signed and announced, then yes it is. It's worth getting a little antsy about what would happen.

[Tom Fornelli]

I think that this carousel is going to be boring as hell for the most part. Like, I don't think you're going to see any crazy things happening. But I also think Lane will stay at Ole Miss, which is kind of driving that. But. But here's one mind blowing scenario. Alabama loses to Auburn, Kaylin DeBoer leaves for Penn State, then Lane leaves for Alabama. Because Alabama is, I think the only job that Lane's really going to be interested in leaving Ole Miss for at this point.

[Danny Cannell]

There's another one that I think he would take, but it is not open.

[Tom Fornelli]

Illinois?

[Danny Cannell]

No.

[Bud Elliott]

Texas.

[Chip Patterson]

Usc.

[Danny Cannell]

Bud said it. Texas. And with Texas losing, I know the Sark rumors were shut down and he put out a statement which I almost thought was like akin to Lance Armstrong when he was so vehement about I did not cheat was like making such a big deal out of I'm not going Anywhere. I don't think it's crazy to think that Sark would go to the NFL.

[Tom Fornelli]

But he and Sark are pretty. Oh, okay.

[Danny Cannell]

So, yeah, they're very tight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like if Sark got fired, I don't think Lane would take the Texas job.

[Chip Patterson]

No.

[Tom Fornelli]

But it would be.

[Danny Cannell]

I don't think so either.

[Tom Fornelli]

Got it.

[Chip Patterson]

Lance and Sark both in Austin. It isn't about that place. Any other. Any other notes to. To get to from the weekend?

[Bud Elliott]

That was the only thing on the Ole Miss thing I would add is like, is there added pressure to get an answer from lane? If you're 100 sure that like summer all is your backup plan? Like, are you in a race with Auburn? Because I do think Auburn will get summer all if everything else holds status quo. Obviously coached at Ole Miss, you know, is the SEC like they. They've played him a couple times last year. They gave Ole Miss a lot of trouble. Does that ramp it up a little bit to get the answer? And I. The only thing I would push back on Tom is I'm sure Sexton is a pretty big hand in this. Lane also loves the spotlight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, he's going to want that. That week long period or whatever it is where the entire sport is all eyes on Lane.

[Danny Cannell]

See, he had. There was a quote that Lane Kiffin actually quote tweeted after he just retweeted it and it was a quote and it said he was asked about. He said, I think it's disrespectful to these players to even be talking about all those opportunities. When I would counter and say, you know, it's disrespectful to your players. Is you not just saying, I'll be back after all of this time?

[Chip Patterson]

He's.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, Ole Miss doesn't look like a team that's distracted to me.

[Danny Cannell]

No.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

That's where I think Lane does well.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's what I'm saying. I don't think it's impacting the team whatsoever. I think the team knows the situation. And also, like, let's be real, like, these players can go in the portal every off season and get a raise somewhere else. They understand the business side of it far more now than they ever did before.

[Danny Cannell]

Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like, if a coach, if their coach leaves and goes and gets paid, most of these players are going to be happy for their coach.

[Danny Cannell]

What if he leaves before the playoffs start?

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, my gosh.

[Tom Fornelli]

Blaine Kiffin would never take another job with a playoff game still to go. Never.

[Danny Cannell]

Never.

[Chip Patterson]

You know, that's never Will that. That's what Florida fans are fever dreaming about. They've. That's what they've. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. So y', all, that's Florida fans in their fanciest dreams think that Lane's coming and that he is going to be on the job before the playoffs start.

[Tom Fornelli]

Okay.

[Chip Patterson]

That would be, that would be wild. And maybe it's the fear of that that is driving some of the Ole Miss thinking. Right. But people spend all that time like, what's going to happen when a player opts out of a playoff game? What's going to happen when a coach outside of a playoff game?

[Bud Elliott]

We've seen it with coordinators before. Yep. I mean, Mark Richt against Oklahoma, national championship game. He was leaving for Georgia, didn't opt out.

[Chip Patterson]

But like, you know, I mean, Saban has told coordinators. Saban's like, no, get out. Let's, let's go. Want to get you out. But yeah, we'll be. Will be very interesting to continue to keep an eye on moving forward. All right, little ot here on C3 on an upon further review Monday, we will be back Wednesday, 11:00am Eastern Time. Oh, excuse me. Tuesday night. We'll be back Tuesday night with our instant reaction to the new college Football playoff rankings. Then Wednesday 11am to get you set for the biggest games of week 13. Of course, the headliner, huge one in the Big Ten as we've got Oregon against USC. That is the big time game on CBS. So big game breakdown for that and the other biggest games from the week 13 slate locks on Thursday. You know what to do because you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fernell, you can follow him@bud elliot3. You can follow him at Danny Canal, you can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Go Bears.

[Bud Elliott]

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