Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Upon Further Review — AP Poll Reactions, CFP Projections, Conference Tiebreakers & More

Date: November 17, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 Podcast dives into the latest chaos and drama swirling through college football as the regular season heads into its final stretch. The hosts break down reactions to the new AP Poll, debate the validity of team resumes, project the College Football Playoff (CFP) field, puzzle over intricate conference tiebreaker scenarios, analyze Heisman race front-runners, and discuss shifting coaching dynamics. The banter is fast, detailed, and includes plenty of insider insights, witty asides, and heated opinions.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. AP Top 25 Poll Reactions (04:23-15:45)

• Alabama and Texas Slide, Oklahoma Rises:
  Alabama drops from #4 to #10 after a key loss, causing movement among Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Oklahoma in the Top 10. Texas falls hard after losing to Florida and Georgia, now at #17.
• Debate: Is Texas Playoff-Dead?
  • "Can we just put to bed Texas getting to the playoffs as a three-loss team?" (Danny, 06:38)
  • Discussion about whether Texas could climb back into the CFP with a win over undefeated A&M and Oklahoma. Consensus: almost no chance, but weird chaos scenarios can't be entirely ruled out.
• Resume Blind Test Exercise:
  Tom presents a blind comparison of five 7-3 teams' resumes, pointing out voter bias for pre-season ranked teams (Missouri, Tennessee) over similarly deserving teams like Nebraska and Arizona State.
  • "If the best thing about you is that you can't beat ranked teams, that kind of suggests maybe you don't deserve to be ranked." (Tom, 13:00)
• Crowded Bottom of the Poll:
  Chaos reigns at the bottom; more teams receiving votes than usual, with little consensus.
• BYU's Resume and Metrics:
  Danny flags BYU’s FPI-favored strength of schedule, raising questions about why Georgia Tech isn't closer despite similar strengths.

2. College Football Playoff Projections (18:49-29:39)

• Bud Bot Simulation Controversy:
  • The model triggers online wrath by showing Alabama jumping Georgia if Bama wins the SEC; hosts agree the SEC champ will never be ranked fifth.
  • "Would you really put the SEC champion third among SEC teams?" (Bud, 19:40)
• Potential CFP Field:
  • North Texas, Tulane, and JMU are G5 contenders but unlikely to get in over American teams.
  • Oklahoma's playoff chances are discussed—models don't favor them due to offensive struggles, even after big wins.
  • “In the models, Oklahoma’s power rating dropped after that game because the offense looked like complete garbage again.” (Bud, 22:32)
• Debate Over CFP Bubble Teams:
  • The group debates how high Texas Tech could rise and whether Georgia fans might welcome a #5 seed rather than a bye, to avoid injuries.

3. Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios (31:11-55:04)

• SEC Tiebreakers Explained (31:11-34:57):
  • Bud unpacks who needs what:
    • A&M is in if they beat Texas.
    • Ole Miss needs an Egg Bowl win, Texas beating A&M, Auburn beating Alabama.
    • Georgia needs Kentucky to beat Vandy and three other results; gets complicated in three-way ties.
    • "Georgia needs Kentucky over Vandy plus three of those other four I just mentioned." (Bud, 33:22)
• Big Ten Scenarios (35:03-42:04):
  • Mostly rides on Ohio State-Indiana. Michigan could be in complicated tie-breaks with USC if various upsets occur.
  • "I really don't think there's any possible combination of games that allows Michigan to make up .13 in the win percentage column over the final two weeks." (Bud, 41:39)
• ACC & Big 12 Title Races (42:04-55:04):
  • ACC: Georgia Tech controls destiny; Virginia, Pitt, SMU, Miami still mathematically alive but need help.
  • Big 12:
    • Texas Tech and BYU control their destiny; Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, Utah need help.
    • "If all the favorites win and Cincy beats BYU, then it would be Texas Tech, Arizona State." (Bud, 53:57)
  • Tiebreakers are so convoluted even the hosts openly struggle: "It’s really freaking complicated...this is a mess." (Bud, 52:02)

4. Notable Segment: Brilliantly Boring Wins of the Week (55:37-57:33)

• Highlights Washington’s dominant, mistake-free drubbing of Purdue as this week’s “brilliantly boring” win:
  • “They just took care of business right from the jump. It was over very quickly.” (Tom, 56:59)

5. Upon Further Review: Second Thoughts & Listener Feedback (59:16-74:28)

• Texas Fans in Denial:
  • Tom hears complaints that Texas wasn’t really “blown out” by Georgia. He doubles down and provides a drive-by-drive rundown of how Georgia put the game away.
    • “They keep bringing up that it was 14:10 at the end of the third quarter. What they don’t mention is that it was still 14 to 10...because after they got the touchdown...Georgia had the ball and ran out the final minutes...” (Tom, 59:54)
• Kirby Smart Trolling Texas:
  • Bud explains Kirby’s pointed comments after beating Texas as related to losing five-star DL Justice Terry in recruitment: “That was 100% related to that.” (Bud, 62:19)
• Heisman Race Talk:
  • Strong takes on Mendoza’s odds, Ty Simpson’s longshot, and how the Big Ten title game winner will likely claim the trophy.
  • “Every QB in the Heisman conversation has at least one great receiver...” (Tom, 71:13)
  • “Aiden Hutchinson was a finalist...None of those really sniffed winning the award, but all, all finalists.” (Chip, 68:08)
• Unique Personalities – Fernando Mendoza:
  • Chip, Tom, and Danny marvel at the Indiana QB's charisma and looming national attention.

6. Coaching Carousel and Lane Kiffin Speculation (74:56-83:20)

• Sentiment Shift at Ole Miss:
  • Danny notices growing restlessness among Rebel fans and admins as Lane Kiffin holds off on contract extension.
  • “It's either it's time to poop or get off the pot...I think we're approaching that with Ole Miss.” (Danny, 75:46)
• Coaching Rumors, Jimmy Sexton & Potential Openings:
  • The group debates whether Lane will leave, if Sexton’s agent games are behind the curtain, and theorizes about domino effects for Alabama, Texas, and more if certain jobs open.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On College Football’s Chaotic Drama:
  • “We are not building gated communities tomorrow, okay? We are not trying to keep people out of college football enjoyment.”
    – Chip (44:52)
• On Poll Voter Bias:
  • “Not because they're in the SEC, but because they started the season ranked and voters are lazy.”
    – Tom (13:00)
• Tiebreaker Madness:
  • “So you literally need Cal…Like, you can't just be Louisville beating SMU.”
    – Bud (46:53)
  • “I could have done this wrong. All right? But I think they need to win out…” (Bud, 47:29)
• Heisman Voting Realism:
  • “If you really think a linebacker is going to win the Heisman Trophy, I've got a bridge in New York to sell you.”
    – Tom (68:08)
• On the Lane Kiffin Soap Opera:
  • “I think we're approaching that with Ole Miss, where their administration is getting a little bit irritated as well…”
    – Danny (75:46)
  • “Lane also loves the spotlight.”
    – Bud (81:43)
• On the Boredom of the Coaching Carousel:
  • “I think that this carousel is going to be boring as hell for the most part.”
    – Tom (79:29)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• AP Top 25 Reactions: 04:23–15:45
• Resume Blind Test & Poll Analysis: 11:32–15:45
• CFP Projections (Bud Bot): 18:49–29:39
• Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios: 31:11–55:04
• Brilliantly Boring Wins: 55:37–57:33
• Upon Further Review (Fan Feedback, Second Thoughts): 59:16–74:28
• Heisman Race/Player Personality Talk: 64:34–74:28
• Lane Kiffin & Coaching Carousel: 74:56–83:20

Final Thoughts

This episode is a prime showcase of the Cover 3 team’s signature wit, data-driven analysis, and willingness to call out sacred cows in both polling and playoff processes. The hosts’ transparency about the complexities (and occasional frustrations) of tiebreaker math, their clever blind resume stunt, and their no-nonsense takes on the Heisman and coaching carousel make this an essential listen for any college football fan trying to keep up with the wild ride that is November in the sport.

For full coverage, follow the hosts:
@Chip_Patterson | @TomFornelli | @DannyKanell | @BudElliott3

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