Upon Further Review: AP Poll Reactions, Hot Seat Watch, Surprise Teams, More | Cover 3 Podcast

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Upon Further Review: AP Poll Reactions, Hot Seat Watch, Surprise Teams, More

Date: September 8, 2025

Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Brief Overview

In this post-Week 2 episode, the Cover 3 team unpacks the latest AP Top 25 poll, debates who actually deserves to be ranked, and scrutinizes the logic of the current ranking system. The crew also dives into quarterback stock evaluations, highlights teams exceeding or falling below expectations, and shares their "brilliantly boring" wins while offering deep-dive insights into standout performances and trends shaping the early season.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Running Quarterbacks & Durability (03:00 – 07:39)

• Main Discussion: Are today's dual-threat QBs being overused as runners, and will this wear them down by season's end?
  • Danny Kanell draws parallels to the NFL Ravens/Lamar Jackson ethos: “It’s not a luxury to have a quarterback who can run. It’s a requirement.” (03:35)
  • Tom Fornelli and Bud Elliott discuss differences based on conference defenses and strategy; they note some QBs (like Damon Dampier) avoid hits and manage risk better than others.
  • Bud Elliott asserts NIL money and college priorities mean teams are incentivized to use QBs aggressively as runners: “You are here to run the ball as a running quarterback. I don’t really give a damn about this NFL stuff for some of these guys…that’s what the money’s for, like Don Draper said, so run, run, run.” (06:13)

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2. AP Poll Reactions & Voting Logic (09:00 – 19:51)

SEC Heavyweight

• Tom Fornelli: “11 SEC teams out of 16 [in the AP poll]. And you can argue there should be a 12th because if South Carolina is 11th, you can argue why the hell isn’t Vanderbilt ranked?” (09:01)
• Cast debate the merit of several teams' rankings, criticizing apparent brand bias and lack of respect for teams like USF and Vanderbilt.

Poll Process Critique

• Multiple hosts call out AP voters for not watching enough games, relying on reputation, and inconsistent logic.
  • Danny Kanell: “If South Florida had a Nittany Lion on the side of their helmet... they would be top five. I still don’t think the pollsters give enough credit for what you actually see during the season and building up resumes.” (10:34)
  • Tom Fornelli exposes voters who left Baylor unranked yet still ranked SMU after SMU lost to Baylor (14:11)
• Agreement that the AP poll influences playoff perceptions and TV hype, even if “it’s dumb”: “Those numbers next to the teams…are the AP rankings. They have a huge influence because for casual fans...they see that 12 next to a team, they assume that team must be really good.” – Tom Fornelli (19:32)

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3. Quarterback Stock Exchange: Day Trading Danny (22:33 – 36:51)

Biggest Buy

• Sawyer Robertson (Baylor)
  • Danny: “He’s the best quarterback in college football…what he did on the road, bringing his team back from behind, never looked rattled. He’s got a cannon for an arm.” (22:33)
  • Tom: “He’s basically throwing 70 yards more per game than anybody else in the country.” (24:21)

Major Sells

• Cade Klubnik (Clemson)

  • Danny: “I’m selling my Cade Klubnik stock...he’s a player that needs a lot of good weapons around him. When Clemson wins national championships, they have a difference maker…that’s not him.” (25:30)
  • Tom and Bud echo concerns about Clemson’s failing run game and O-line limiting Klubnik’s upside: “I just think the offense as a whole is in a very bad place…we could be looking at 8-4 Clemson.” – Tom (27:12)

• Mark Gronowski (Iowa)

  • Danny is also selling after disappointing play, especially pocket awareness and lack of urgency: “He’s working with a sundial.” (31:01)
  • Tom offers a contrarian value bet, joking about incremental improvement.

Other QB Takes

• Buying: Dante Moore (Oregon); “He looks really comfortable in that system…buying Oregon as a Big Ten champion candidate.” – Danny (32:26)
• Holding: Drew Allar (Penn State); “Not concerned yet, but…playing with their food a little.” – Danny (34:29)
• General Analyst Comments: Bud remains intrigued by the accuracy and poise shown by Moore and sees Dan Lanning/Oregon as raising the floor with their QB play.

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4. Brilliantly Boring Wins of the Week (36:51 – 38:15)

• Recognizing Indiana’s methodical 56-9 win over Kennesaw State:
  • Tom: “They just finished drives, Chip…they kept it simple, and they were able to finish their drives for touchdowns this week, unlike in their first game of the season.” (37:54)

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5. Hymn of the Week: QB Celebration (39:46)

John Matier (Oklahoma)

• Spotlighted for a moxie-filled three-TD performance vs. Michigan, both on the ground and through the air.
  • Danny: “A little bit of a wild ride because you don’t know what you’re going to get…he’s a weapon as a runner. But you’ve got to have a dude at quarterback. That’s how you describe him.” (39:46)
  • Chip highlights Matier as the next in a line of swaggering, off-script college stars; hosts praise both the play and Matier’s postgame humility.

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6. Upon Further Review: Under the Hood (42:23 – 64:07)

Georgia’s Ceiling with Stockton

• Bud expresses skepticism over the Dawgs’ QB situation: “I don’t know that Georgia can cash this defense in for a national title unless [Stockton] takes a real leap. It doesn’t look like, you know, a quarterback of a top five team.” (45:17)
• Chip wonders if OC Mike Bobo deserves blame or whether change could come if Puglisi is given a chance.

Oregon & Defensive Dominance

• Tom drops wild stats about Oregon’s defense making opposing QBs look historically bad: “Oklahoma State…averaged an astounding minus 1.15 EPA per drop back.” (47:43)
• Group consensus: Oregon is better than anticipated, with a credible argument to be in the Big Ten’s top tier early on.

Teams Significantly Better or Worse Than Expectations

• Better:
  • Oregon (“raising their floor thanks to Dante Moore’s accuracy,” 49:27)
• Worse/Biggest Downgrades:
  • Kansas State, Iowa State, SMU, Duke, UCLA, North Carolina, Oklahoma State.
  • Chip: “Big downgrades on UCLA, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State. Any arguments?” (56:11)

Arch Manning’s Health & Development

• Concerns surface over Arch’s mechanical struggles and apparent discomfort:
  • Danny: “He does not look comfortable in the pocket…he does not look 100% when he’s throwing the football.” (57:59)
  • Tom (after reviewing years of photos): “That’s just what he looks like when he throws.” (59:45)
  • Hosts agree it’s not panic time, but eyes are glued to the next performances.

Miscellaneous Insights & Notebook Tidbits

• James Madison’s defensive line garners praise for disrupting Louisville and the Sun Belt overall.
• LSU’s thin offensive line situation could be a concern after another injury.

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Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “It’s not a luxury to have a quarterback who can run. It’s a requirement to have a quarterback who can run…you just have to say, you know what, it’s a physical sport. We’re going to take our risk.” — Danny Kanell (03:35)
• “You are here to run the ball as a running quarterback. I don’t really give a damn about this NFL stuff for some of these guys…that’s what the money’s for, like Don Draper said, so run, run, run.” — Bud Elliott (06:13)
• “If South Florida had a Nittany Lion on the side of their helmet…they would be top five.” — Danny Kanell (10:34)
• "I think a lot of the people voting in these polls do not actually watch college football. They just watch a game or two every week. Then they fill out their ballot at the end of the night." — Tom Fornelli (15:48)
• “He’s working with a sundial.” — Danny Kanell (about Mark Gronowski’s pocket awareness) (31:01)
• “If you’re on a beat, man…[You] can’t spend your Saturday watching every single game...It’s difficult.” — Bud Elliott (17:26)
• “I just think the offense as a whole is in a very bad place…We could be looking at 8-4 Clemson.” — Tom Fornelli (27:12)
• “He looks like he knows exactly where to go with the football. And I’m buying Oregon as a Big Ten champion candidate.” — Danny Kanell (about Dante Moore) (32:26)
• “Oklahoma State…averaged an astounding minus 1.15 EPA per drop back in that game.” — Tom Fornelli (47:43)
• “I don't know that Georgia can cash this defense in for a national title unless [Stockton] takes a real leap.” — Bud Elliott (45:17)
• “You’ve got to have a dude at quarterback and that’s how you describe [John Matier].” — Danny Kanell (39:46)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| |03:00–07:39 | Running QBs, durability, evolution of QB's role | |09:00–19:51 | AP poll debate: brand bias, logic lapses, voter critique | |22:33–36:51 | QB Stock exchange — Buys, sells, holds | |36:51–38:15 | Brilliantly boring wins: Indiana | |39:46–41:29 | Hymn (player) of the week – John Matier (Oklahoma) | |42:23–64:07 | Under the hood: Team upgrades/downgrades; Georgia/Oregon |

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Tone and Style

The hosts are sharp, collegial, critique-heavy yet often lighthearted, blending data, strong opinions, and plenty of inside jokes and running gags about poll logic and coach-speak.

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Concluding Insights

• AP Poll Voting is under fire: The group’s collective skepticism reaffirms how reputation and media inertia still drive early-season rankings more than on-field results.
• Quarterback play is everything: From injuries and mechanics to “moxie,” the right guy at QB is how programs separate from the pack.
• Surprise teams abound (Oregon up, Kansas State/NC down), but the sense is that September is for sorting out contenders from pretenders.
• Keep watching: The hosts tease deep dives into matchups and further under-the-radar notebook observations in their upcoming shows.

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If you missed this episode, you got a front-row seat to the week’s sharpest analysis, loudest poll takes, and most candid conversations anywhere in college football media.

Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

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[Tom Fornelli]

Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.

[Bud Elliott]

Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3PO and.

[Chip Patterson]

Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Canel, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the COVID 3 tailgate where we've got conversation about the max ability maybe to crash the College Football Playoff. So some conversations about the Big 12 as a whole, but a quarterback specific comment from our friend Coach K dk I want to throw this your way first. Are these running quarterbacks and they mentioned John Matier, Jackson Arnold, Devin Dampier going to be out of gas towards the end of the year with how many carries they are taking?

[Danny Cannell]

I don't know. But if you would have included Haynes King in this list after his opener in their opening win, you would have said maybe not because he ran it a ton against Colorado and then he missed last week and I, I was, it was a, a late scratch for me that I didn't see coming. I do think it's a concern. I think it's something to keep an eye on. But I actually, it's funny because the Ravens were playing last night. I've had this thought for a while. I give credit to the Baltimore Ravens for starting this trend because Lamar Jackson is a weapon as a runner and instead of when they drafted him saying, well, we're gonna, we're gonna make him a pocket passer, we're gonna try to make him something he's not. They said, no, it's football. It's a dangerous game. We're going to take our risk. We're going to use him as that weapon and if he gets hurt, so be it. And I think more teams are taking that approach and even material after said that plus one run game, when you have to defend the quarterback as a runner, it puts the defense in such a bind. I think it's a trend that the game is going where it's not a luxury to have a quarterback who can run. It's a requirement to have a quarterback who can run. I do think it's a great point to, you know, to make, but I think a lot of teams are taking on this risk and you just have to say, you know what, it's a physical sport. We're going to take our risk. We want to win as many games as possible while we have them out there. So I think it's just. I think it's something interesting to keep an eye on. Tom, what's going on with.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know, but I don't know over there.

[Bud Elliott]

This is weird.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, I think. And, God, this is going to get people mad. But I don't think it's as big of a deal for Devin Dampier as it is for Jackson Arnold and John Matier.

[Chip Patterson]

Is that because of the offensive lines?

[Tom Fornelli]

Partially, but it's also because of the opponents.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, I know. No one should get mad at you for that.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, I, I think John Matier and Jackson Arnold having to do it week after week against, like, SEC defenses is different than Devin Damper, who will be doing it against Big 12 defenses for the most part, because there is a difference in the physical nature of them, not the ability to play football, just in the physical nature of them. So I, I don't think you want your quarterback running that often to begin with, no matter who you are. But I don't think it's as big of a deal for Dampier. But I also think that's kind of what Dampier is. If you're, if you're Matier and Arnold, that's who they've been. But I also feel like you thought that they were going to be a bit more in the passing attack. And Mater so far has been much better than Arnold in that department, but even he still has mistakes. And I think Dan Pierce been better than Arnold in that aspect, too. So, you know, yeah, if I'm Auburn and I have those receivers, I probably want to use Jackson Arnold as a thrower more.

[Bud Elliott]

I also think there's the element of, like, are you worried about them running so much because of what it says about, about your running game when the quarterback's not doing it. On the flip side in, in the nil and Rev share era, if you're a runner, I'm paying you to run, man. Oh, that, that, that. You're. You are here to run the ball as a running quarterback. I don't really give a damn about this NFL stuff for some of these guys. Like, like that. That's what the money's for, like Don Draper said, so run, run, run. 19 carries for material. He still has, what, eight SEC games to play? Like that would be concerning for sure. I feel like Dan Pierre gets out of bounds a lot.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, like he's smarter. Like, smarter.

[Bud Elliott]

Untouched. How many of these carries do you think he's actually been tackled?

[Tom Fornelli]

Not many.

[Bud Elliott]

Right Materials, material, braces, some contact and he's pretty big.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean he's pretty durable. Dude, he's thick. Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Not in the haunch area, but just thick.

[Chip Patterson]

Not in the haunches. No, that's, yeah, that's, that's.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean we see, we see running backs all the time go through a season, 1500 yard rushers and they're fine now, their body types different. But I think teams are just kind of not worried as much. And like Bud said, I think it's a great point you're paying them all that money. We're not worried about NFL development in the past game. We want you to put the, put the most points on the board and whoever that is, so be it. And I think it's the right to. I think I would be doing it too.

[Chip Patterson]

We have a lot here in Monday's show. It's one of our favorites because we are going to check in with the markets. That's right. Day trading Danny making a return. We'll be having our brilliantly boring wins of the week. Our hymn of the week will go under the hood in upon further review. But with Sunday giving us a new AP Top 25, that means it is time to check in with our friend. That's right. It's him. It is the. Where is it? Thank you, Mikey the Pole assassin. Okay, new AP top 25 released on Sunday. We've got still Ohio State holding in at number one, Penn State at number two, LSU at number three. We saw the opportunity for Oregon to move up after absolutely thumping Oklahoma State. They did jumping up to number four in the poll. You've obviously got some, some big time moves down. Michigan falls after the loss to Oklahoma, but Arizona State, Florida and SMU all fall all the way out of the rankings entirely. Missouri gets in, Auburn gets in. And of course USF makes its appearance at number 18. Pretty close to where I think we had it for tomorrow's top 25 today. It thoughts either about the rankings, consensus, individual ballots, what stood out from the new top 25?

[Tom Fornelli]

11 SEC teams out of 16. And you can argue there should be a 12th because if South Carolina is 11th, you can argue why the hell isn't Vanderbilt ranked?

[Danny Cannell]

Totally agree.

[Bud Elliott]

I think Vanderbilt should absolutely be ranked. I mean they went to Virginia Tech and killed them, whereas South Carolina needed a kickoff return to win that game. For that. I, yeah, I don't really get like why Michigan and South Carolina are ranked based on what they've done so far this year, personally. Yeah, like in comparison, Vandy's Been better. I think like there are probably a number of Big Ten teams who, who look a little more impressive. Like why is USC has looked better than Michigan? Yeah. If Oklahoma doesn't fumble that punt, Michigan's getting run off the field. So what are we doing here with that? Utah crazy. I don't think Ole Miss should be ranked at all. Like Kentucky was awful last year. Kentucky showed no signs of not being awful so far. That that's just what like just name brand value here, I guess.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. I mean but at 17 at this point in the year, if, if you were, if, if Ole Miss was in the South Carolina position, you know, a little bit further up, I could take more, you know, take more of an issue with it. If Arkansas beats Ole Miss this weekend, they're out. So you know, they're, they're at least in that they're on the chopping block. 17's firmly a chopping block spot.

[Bud Elliott]

If they, if they beat Arkansas, then shoot, man, Chip. They're gonna have two wins over non bowl teams. You might want to think about put them in top 10.

[Danny Cannell]

This could be if I, I still think the voter do it all wrong. I don't think they pay attention to what they're supposed to do. If South Florida had a Nittany line on the side of their helmet or if they had a Florida State Seminole on the side of their helmet, if they had an Ohio State Buckeye on the side side of their helmet, they would be top five. I still don't think the pollsters give enough credit for what you actually see during the season and building up resumes and forgetting everything you thought you knew in the off season. I just, I don't, I don't think they're giving South Florida enough credit for what they've done. And, and I'm sure if you say well they can go to Miami and beat them like then I think clearly they would make another significant jump. But like if they lose, then knock them back down. Like they're supposed to be really, really volatile if you're doing them right. Where each week as you get more information, you should hop them around a lot. I still don't think South Florida is getting the respect they deserve.

[Bud Elliott]

Why is, why is Texas Tech ranked in TCU and usc?

[Tom Fornelli]

Not because Texas Tech spent a lot of money to get that ring.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, a lot of off season stories.

[Tom Fornelli]

So it's Shahanj Roger's fault. That's why Texas Tech is ranked. Blame Shahan. He wrote that story. And now everybody likes Texas Tech.

[Chip Patterson]

There's A sprouts in Lubbock.

[Bud Elliott]

Why is Texas Tech rec, not Nebraska? I don't think Nebraska is great, but Nebraska ragdolled a. A bad Mac team over the weekend, and they also have a much better win over, like, at least a competent, athletic Cincinnati team than anything Tech has. I. I'm not trying to pick on Texas Tech here. I just not really sure logically how some of these make sense. Well, if we're basing it based on, like, what they've shown on the field.

[Chip Patterson]

This year, a little bit, your TCU argument is better. TCU is only one and oh, but they've got a road win against a power conference team. Texas Tech is one of several teams that is two zero with zero power conference wins.

[Danny Cannell]

And it wasn't just a win. They blew them out. They embarrassed North Carolina. I think Ryan. Ryan puts in there. Now, is that good or bad? I know what Ryan's trying to say. TCU was 9 and 4 last year. We're not even supposed to consider last year. You're supposed to forget about everything, you know, especially in today's game with so much turnover on rosters. Like, they should be out the window.

[Bud Elliott]

In a year with great uncertainty. This still looks really bad from the ap. And I'm usually not like, oh, the ap. Like, bang on the AP pole guy. Or at least I try not to be, but, like, keep it. In the state of Texas, you've had two pretty crappy teams move the ball on a. M so far.

[Tom Fornelli]

I do not disrespect Broncos big bad boys in front of me.

[Chip Patterson]

Behind my back, not in front of us.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. Come on.

[Bud Elliott]

The teams that have the real gripes to me, USC and tcu. Yeah. Should be ranked, but.

[Chip Patterson]

But an argument for USC would be they still haven't played a power conference team.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, fair.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's. We. We got it.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes, I have. I have a fun little thing about a team that didn't finish in the rankings this week.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

All right, I'm gonna. I'm gonna read off a list of AP voters, and I want you guys to try to tell me what they have in common this week. Henry Greenstein, Craig Stevenson, Jordan McPherson, Josh Furlong, Chad Bishop, Pete Yanity, Brian Howell, Mike Hill, and Steven Johnson. What do those gentlemen all have in common?

[Chip Patterson]

They are men.

[Bud Elliott]

They had Florida over usf.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, no. There was only one good guess, though.

[Danny Cannell]

That was a she.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. No, these. These fine gentlemen all have SMU remaining on their ballots this week. But not only do they have them ahead of Baylor, they don't Have Baylor ranked at all?

[Danny Cannell]

Come on.

[Chip Patterson]

Wow.

[Tom Fornelli]

So if SMU is still ranked even after a loss to Baylor, but you took Baylor out of your poll because it lost to Auburn, I need to know what you're doing besides just moving teams down as you scroll through the box scores on whatever website you so choose. Now, I assume some of you listen to this show. I'm guessing most of you don't because you don't really seem to show any interest in college football as much as you just like being able to say that you have a ballot on the poll. But I would really appreciate it if all of you could let us know why SMU remained on your ballot despite losing to a team that you don't believe deserves to be under ballot. Thank you.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, so I think I figured it out. Like smu, they didn't finish the game. They must have just changed channels when SMU had a two. Yeah, had a two touchdown lead with eight change left and they were like, oh yeah, SMU's got this no chance. They give up two explosive plays and then cork it. Double OT as well. So they, they must have just moved on to another game and just, you know, like SMU didn't finish the job.

[Bud Elliott]

Well, they had to move on to the NFL rankings where they have Baltimore as first place in the afc.

[Danny Cannell]

Maybe that explains why Vanderbilt isn't ranked. Maybe a lot of them just 2010 halftime score they thought up. Well, Vanderbilt's old Vanderbilt laying an egg. Then stick around for the 34. Nothing beat down in the second half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Listen, I'm not saying that polls shouldn't exist. I think polls are fun. I think they generate discussion and I think they give us all something to talk about. But I think a lot of the people voting in these polls do not actually watch college football. They just watch a game or two every week. Then they fill out their ballot at the end of the night and then they go look at whatever the ballot was last week, whatever the rest of the voters all thought, and just go from there.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, that's why, that's why we have Pole Assassin.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know, that's why we need to. We don't need to get rid of polls. We're just revolutionize who we use to compile them.

[Chip Patterson]

No, I, I believe that. I believe that they can change. If you can change and I can change, then we all can change, as Ivan Drago famously said. So I think that. I think we're just holding a higher standard. So if you just had your name called out, that's okay. Come on. Back next week. Bring it, Bring a new, new look on the pulsing on the pollsters.

[Danny Cannell]

The standard is, please watch the games. Like, that's all we're asking them to do.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like, what they try to do is they try to get voters from all across the country to have a sample representation of everywhere. I think one of the biggest problems that they have is they go to beat writers. And if you're a beat writer, you can't spend your Saturday watching every single game. You have to watch the team you cover. And then after that game, yeah, you have to go inter. Do the press conferences, you have to do interviews, you have to do all that. Then you have to go sit, you have to write your stories. You don't have time to watch everything. So I think that they need to reevaluate who they have doing these polls.

[Bud Elliott]

Literally. Like, that's the reason I don't go to many games, because the Saturday show suffers, right? Like, we can pull it off if one of us is out of game, but you really got to have two guys at home or in the office with a bunch of screens if you want to do. Which, by the way, thank you all for getting us number six in the country in the sports podcast. Like, it's like NFL, NFL, pro wrestling, fantasy football. Look, gotta, gotta wrap the college game here for us. But yeah, like, if you're on a beat, man, you are, you're there like at least 90 minutes before kickoff. You're probably down in the field talking to some guys you haven't seen. Like, you're gathering info, you're watching warm ups, you're seeing who dressed, who didn't dress. Like you're, you're probably running social as well for whatever, you know, newspaper or wherever, whatever beat you work for. You know, if you're someone who does recruiting, like, you're probably outside the stadium for like hours in advance, seeing who shows up, taking photos for that, you know, doing that kind of deal. And then, you know, you're not getting out of the facility for a 7 o' clock game until, like, they're kicking out of the press box like 11, 30, 12. But, like, you may not even be done by that time. So it's. Yeah, it's, it's difficult.

[Chip Patterson]

Listen, we're just, we're trying to hold a high standard. We can't get bogged down and complaining about the poll. All right, we got tomorrow.

[Danny Cannell]

How many names? Just six, seven names you just rattled off. Like, if there's a one off. I mean, you listed a lot of names that did not. Like, that's pretty egregious. Like, there was the one girl who was going viral because she had Florida ranked and South Florida unranked. I'll give one pass. Like, maybe she didn't watch. Maybe she'd missed it. I was a voter at espn. Like sometimes you just forget, like you just blank out on one and you saw it. You just whenever you submit it, you were in a hurry. But to have that many names, that's pretty. It shows you how dumb this poll is. And to to some people saying no, AP doesn't matter. I do think it matters because it does create perception. As the season goes along, when they're going to hear a whole lot about 11 SEC teams ranked, you know, you will hear that throughout the entire season when they're making the push for the playoffs and you're trying to pump in six or seven teams in the playoff.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. For the first half of the season, those numbers next to the teams that they use to convince you to watch the games on television, those are the AP rankings. They have a huge influence because for casual fans or anybody, they see that 12 next to a team, they assume that team must be really good.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep. Sir.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, Coming up on the other side, the market is open. We got to check in with day trading. Danny buys, sells holes, stocks we're watching and more.

[Bud Elliott]

Next.

[Chip Patterson]

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[Bud Elliott]

Abercrombie is an official fashion partner of the NFL and I'm CD Lamb, wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys. You know, I'm here for Abercrombie's Cowboys gear. That's not a question, but I need.

[Chip Patterson]

A whole wardrobe to go with it.

[Bud Elliott]

No shade to the guys, but I'm used to having the best tunnel fits. This season, Abercrombie has me covered.

[Tom Fornelli]

Shop NFL by Abercrombie in the app.

[Bud Elliott]

Online and in store.

[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast we have a a trip true tried and true market expert here on the COVID 3 podcast. It's always good to check the stock of our favorite college football teams, players and story lines. So let's check in with day trading Danny.

[Danny Cannell]

All right, let's kick it off. This is a special, this is a QB stock exchange version because we're doing all QBs and I will say, you know, sometimes you get advised by different people. I've been meeting with Fornelli Advisors quite a bit, been taking some of his advice, some of his newsletters that have been published, and I will say he's been pretty spot on about some of these. So some of these are impacted by Fournelli Advisors. One my biggest buy that I could possibly make would be to snatch up all the Sawyer Robertson I can get. And Fornelli's been talking about this for quite a while. So I think he's the best quarterback in the country. Like in like, I don't know what his final record is going to be because Baylor's defense is a sieve and they have major issues. But if there was a quarterback out there that you said I want from start to finish, no matter what the score is, the guy's got all the skill set that you want. What he did on the road, bringing his team back from behind, never look rattled. He's got a cannon for an arm. Sawyer Robertson, 429 yards per game with seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, leading his team from a come behind and against an SEC defense in week one, 393 yards. But just watching him, watched all that game, he looked like the best quarterback in the country in the end. Somebody else may win the Heisman, somebody else may have a team that's better, but for me, he's the best quarterback in college football.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm going to say a sentence here, Danny. That would have sounded very like, normal, but maybe 10 years ago, but out of place for the last two or three. Having a really veteran guy quarterback can help. Yes, it's.

[Danny Cannell]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

Because now, like, now that not everyone has one, it. It really stands out.

[Danny Cannell]

Yes, it does. It absolutely does.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, it's. It's early, but it is. Like, you look at the stats, he's averaging 429 and a half yards passing per game. In second place is Darian Mensah at 361. So he's basically throwing 70 yards more per game than anybody else in the country. But I also think that is a testament to, A, the game situation Baylor has found itself in a couple of times. But also, B, Baylor does not seem to have much faith in their run game. So they're just like, Sawyer, save us.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

And he's doing a very good job of it.

[Danny Cannell]

He's 60 to 1. Like, if I like long shots to throw a couple bucks on him to see if it hits. I don't know, like if they're nine and three, I think he's got a chance. Eight and four, we've seen that kind of be the line of demarcation. But if he puts up these numbers and they're nine and three and maybe in the Big 12 championship, which I don't think is crazy to think, you know, considering how that conference is kind of wide open, I think it's worth a flyer to take it.

[Tom Fornelli]

There's cash out potential there. Like, maybe you don't expect it to win, but you hope that in a month from now you're getting this money.

[Chip Patterson]

Off, getting some money back, you know, a little 3x your investment. I mean, look at, look at that. The firm's already giving out great plays right from the jump. Saw your Robertson. Love that.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

So in the next one. Now, this is one where Fornelli Advisors, he's been just pounding the table on this one. And I feel like he's been Steve Carell in the big short when he's trying to tell everybody, like, what. What's happening? Like, why don't you guys see this? Why do you not see this with your own eyes? And this one pains me. This one pains me because I've been a big defender selling my Cade Club Nick stock as a. So I. He's still going to be fine. I think they could still win the acc, but I am selling my highs or my Heisman stock. I'm selling my national championship stock, probably Most importantly, I was never a big believer that Kate Clubnik was going to be an NFL guy. Like when I saw him showing up on top 10 mock drafts, like, I don't know about that, but I still think he could be a great college quarterback who could win a national championship. I'm selling that stock in Cade Clubnik that he can be there. And even to hear Dabo kind of call him out and say our QB needs to play better. And I get that Antonio Williams is best wide receivers out, they don't have a run game. But if anything that just kind of has exposed Cade Klubnick as a player that needs a lot of good weapons around him. And if you look historically when Clemson has won the national championship, they've had a difference maker. Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson. That's why I'm just. And I didn't pick them to win the national championship. I thought they could get there. I think they're a playoff team and that's about it.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, they're not always been like really, you know, bucketing the praise and also like the skepticism for Kate. Like, like I, you know, to your credit, you've always been like, hey, like he doesn't have the look of like a big time NFL guy physically. You know, he's more of a college guy. Maybe last year is what he is. Like he doesn't have an extra gear get to.

[Tom Fornelli]

I, I, we all know how I feel about Cade. I will say just watching it a little closer and I'm not defending him, but I feel like there is an entire host of problems going on in that offense. I feel like the inability to get anything going on the ground is letting defenses just kind of pin their ears back and it's really overwhelming. An offensive line that I do not think is good enough to protect him and he's not getting a lot of time, but he's also taking too much time and I just don't see a lot of great supper. I just think the offense as a whole is in a very bad place and it's only been two games so there's a chance for them to get out of it as the season goes along. But one of the problems is like they're like Troy was supposed to be a game where you were able to figure things out and they didn't. Furman is on the schedule. That's supposed to be the other kind of game where you could figure things out, but that's not until the very end of November before the South Carolina game. Like they get Georgia Tech this week. ACC play is coming at them right now. So it's. I don't know man, it could be not like a disaster season but like we could be looking at it. Eight and four Clemson, well, they are.

[Chip Patterson]

Better, they have better wide receivers than what DJU had but they don't have the ground game. And like you take it back. Let's see if I can do this. Andre Ellington, Wayne Gallman, Travis etn, Will Shipley, Phil Mafa, like they have had. I, I don't know if they were all 1000 yard rushers but they have had dudes basically all throughout the Clemson run of being at the top of the acc.

[Bud Elliott]

CJ Spiller, start of the run.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah, the very beginning of it.

[Tom Fornelli]

And did you guys see the one handed catch by New Hopkins last night for the touchdown?

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's what Clemson used to have at receiver. They don't have that anymore. And like we've hyped up a lot of the guys that they've gotten but they haven't had anything near that in a long time. Like Hunter Renfro has been. And not a shot, not a slot shot at Hunter Renfro who was very. But that's the best receiver they've had in years. And it's just, it's like that can't be where. If you want to be where you were winning national titles.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, yeah, Mike Williams, T. Higgins like it. Yeah. And look, I, I still think that we could be watching on Sunday and TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco are catching touchdown passes and are like top fantasy football picks. But the problem to your point is that if a defense doesn't respect the run game then the offensive line gets overwhelmed.

[Bud Elliott]

They.

[Chip Patterson]

Then Kate is running for his life and then he is going to look even worse because he has been at his best when they have a talent and schematic advantage and then he can just light the world on fire. But all of these times that he's had like Danny, the way that you coined it, the deer in the headlights look, it's always been off schedule, long situations and he just doesn't, doesn't always meet the moment except against pit, you know, and that, that's, that's not it. You're not playing pit. You're not sorry Corey in the tailgate, you're not playing Pitt in the College Football Playoff. Any of our assumptions that Clemson is going to be making it a game or two into the College Football Playoff are going to require something that we just haven't seen so far from the Tigers.

[Danny Cannell]

Maybe it's a panic sell. Maybe he'll win me back and I'll buy some more later in the season. But right now I got to sell my kid club. Nick, there's another quarterback who I would have doubled down and I probably did this past after week one. And I even guaranteed that he would have a better past performance from week one and week two. And he did. He doubled his passing yardage. But I'm selling my Mark Gronowski.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm sorry, that stock has been delisted.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, I was. So we talked to Kurt Ferencing, had a gleam in his eye. He's like, I finally got a guy. And I was like, yes, let's go. Make me look good, my man. I mean, I've seen high school quarterbacks with more pocket awareness than what he.

[Chip Patterson]

The.

[Danny Cannell]

The lack of a sense of urgency. Like every quarterback has to have an internal clock where you know when you have to get rid of the football. He's working with a sundial. Like you just got to speed it up a little bit. And then even in the run game, I'm like, will you protect yourself? He's kind of just running a little bit timid. I'm like, this is big boy football. This isn't the FCS anymore. And if they throw one more out route on the outside and it's like just. It's a far hash throw, which you need. Like even Josh Allen, it'd be a risky throw with him. And they kept going to him. And they did get the interception which led to Iowa State's touchdown. They took I think one or two shots where they actually threw it down the field. The receiver's an issue. They've got to find a weapon there. But my man Mark Gronowski, I'm a little bit worried was overhyped by yours truly. So I'm selling the stock.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'm buying. This is.

[Danny Cannell]

You're buying low. Look a little better in the second half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Listen, listen.

[Chip Patterson]

You.

[Tom Fornelli]

You are just ignoring returns right now. You are just throwing money away. He went from 2.9 yards per attempt against Albany to three and a half yards per attempt against Iowa State. That is a 20% growth in one week. And you tell me you want to throw that stock away? Not me. I'm.

[Chip Patterson]

Give me.

[Tom Fornelli]

Give me a million shares for $10 right now.

[Bud Elliott]

He could be league average by Halloween.

[Tom Fornelli]

Then, yeah, I'm going to be retiring off of Mark Gronowski getting to 4.7 yards per attempt by the end of the season.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Danny Cannell]

All right, I got Two more. I got a buy and I have a hold. I'm buying Dante Moore and I know it's a game where you win 69 to 3 and it looks pretty easy, but he looks really comfortable in that system. He looks like he knows exactly where to go with the football. And I'm buying Oregon as a Big Ten champion candidate to go back to back. They look to be the real deal. I think they found a quarterback. I think the year off did him wonders when he could go out. And it also gives him wonders to be able to have that type of talent. I heard you. So the Makai Hughes stuff is Dan Lanning just saying, we're so good, we don't need him that much. Is that what he's saying?

[Tom Fornelli]

According to our Richard Johnson, not the one in the tailgate, it's that he's having trouble adapting to the offense because he went from a. They ran a different kind of zone scheme at Tulane to what they're running at Oregon and he's having trouble adapting.

[Danny Cannell]

To it now, which watch out when he gets comfortable because there's another weapon that he'll be able to work with. So I'm buying, buying Dante Moore, buying the Ducks, which I always. I had him as a playoff team already. But I think now from what we saw across the Big Ten, I think they're. They should be right in the conversation to win the Big Ten. Speaking of, I have another Big Ten quarterback. I am holding on to my Drew Aller stock. I think some people may want to sell it. It wasn't great versus FIU even early. It's like what happened to all those wide receivers that they got. He didn't look great in that game. I'm gonna chalk it up to them. I think they're. They're kind of playing with their food a little bit. I think they're just, they're not. The intensity level isn't there. I mean, what he needs is what happened to Dan Lanning. Some coach to call him out and say, oh, they've got all the talent, they're spending too much, you know, it's unfair advantage. Something to wake them up. Unfortunately for them, I think that wake up call only comes when they actually play an opponent. So I'm not that concerned about Drew Aller yet. But I will say, who's the quarterback? The wide receiver who's looked really good this year, who didn't do any. Wallace.

[Chip Patterson]

Harrison.

[Danny Cannell]

Wallace is out there making big plays now when he wasn't last year. Mildly concerning, but I'm holding on to my 2 hour stock for now to.

[Chip Patterson]

Your playing with the food. I am concerned because that first real test is going to be against Oregon, right. And Oregon has all of the rhythm of a team that's not playing with its food. So like are you just going to be all of a sudden be able to ramp up and meet them now you've got, you're going to be playing at home, they're going to have to fly across the country. You've got a lot of intangibles that are going to help Penn State. But right now Oregon will have had more hours and days operating close to peak efficiency than Penn State will have unless they turn things around pretty quickly.

[Bud Elliott]

The I think I'm in on Dante Moore as like at least pretty good. I'm with Danny on that. I will say there, there is kind of like a boiling point theory. Like just it acts different when you have different level of competition. To his credit, the ball's been really accurate. It's been on time. The guys like it's a catchable ball. They're able to run with it after the catch. There's a lot of fairly easy stuff schemed up. He only has two big time throws on the entire season as graded by pff. Like the best kids in the country right now have like 6, 7, 8, 9. So he hasn't had to execute many if any challenging throws. The first guy is almost always open. I think Will signs a great O.C. for, for Oregon and I think it's impressive that he's doing this now with a quarterback who's not like 24 like bo nix or Dylan Gabriel work. But we don't know if some of those easy access throws are going to be available against Penn State in like quite the abundance that they have been against an FCS team and then against kind of a zombie Oklahoma State team. So that I would still like to see. I also like the no sacks thing. Like he is not just, he's clearly seeing it. The ball is out on time. I just, if he's got to hold it and pat a little bit. Is, is he, is he, is he going to the second guy? This is kind of the seller's thing right now too, right? Like you know, we, we saw what Tech did. We, we, we saw honestly like South Carolina State. Shoot. Who's the guy? Reed for ESPN pointed this out again over the weekend. Like hey, it's like the Lenora Sellers throw the ball in the middle of field challenge and just he reads one, skips over two, throws right to three which is just a little kind of worthless check down. So we'll see how more does when Steph's less open. Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

Holding Drew Aller. All right, there we go. Markets closed. We'll check back in with day trading Danny in next week. Now it's time for the brilliantly boring Wins of the Week, brought to you by PNC bank, where we highlight the boring actions that make the biggest difference. Financial wins and football victories don't just happen. They're built on dedicated, consistent, often unseen work behind the scenes. It's the tactical moves and plays that create the foundation for the show stopping moments in life and on the field. And now I wanted to highlight a team that didn't have a boring points total, but probably was doing the small things well to be able to change their results. That is the Indiana Hoosiers to 56 to nine winners against Kennesaw State. Fernando Mendoza threw for four touchdowns in the victory. Tom Fernelli, you called Indiana having a good bounce back after leaving it on the table. What were some of the small things that you think Indiana did well to get better results?

[Tom Fornelli]

They just finished drives, Chip. They, they, they knew who they were once they got to the red zone and they made sure not to try to do too much. They took what was there, they kept it simple, and they were able to finish their drives for touchdowns this week, unlike in their first game of the season where they dominated their opponent. But they didn' it on the scoreboard because of so but this one, Indiana did everything right. They didn't make mistakes and they scored 56 points because of it.

[Chip Patterson]

In an easy win, you get opportunities, you cash them in for the full amount. Doing the small things well, that's what we love. And that's why Indiana has our brilliantly boring Wins of the Week. Those were the brilliantly boring wins of the Week brought to you by PNC Bank. Brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank National association member FDIC. All right, now, there was one quarterback that we did not hear from, at least in terms of the DK market analysis. But I did want to make sure that he was celebrated because now it's time for the hymn of the Week, sponsored by producer Jordan Peele's upcoming sports horror film him, only in theaters September 19th. And our hymn of the week is John Matier. John Matier had three touchdowns, two on the ground, one through the air, helped Oklahoma get out to a big lead and the defense helped nurse it the rest of the way. He was running like a madman. He was throwing off platform. He was getting it all. And dare I say we've got the next incarnation of a moxie player. Moxie McSorley to Moxie Mayfield to Moxie Matier. The guy just absolutely has it. Danny, what did you make of John Matier stepping up and answering the moment against Michigan?

[Danny Cannell]

First of all, I'm a little bit disappointed you didn't have the him player of the week as Martin Luther Stob. I mean, that could have been just the perfect time there. But from Moneyline, Matier, I love him. I he is a roller coaster to watch. I mean, it's a little bit of a wild ride because you don't know what you're going to get. He sees a lot of throws that, you know, he's not intimidated to make. He's very, very, you know, he's a weapon as a runner. A little bit concerned about some of the off platform stuff, little sidearm stuff, kind of loses some of that accuracy. But I think, and this is such a big difference and we've seen this and we've always known this, but more so than ever because of the parody, you've got to have a guy like a dude at quarterback and that's how you describe them. I mean, I loved his postgame interview with Holly Rowe. He was giving everybody else credit. He was thanking the fans for not booing when he had an interception, crediting his offensive lineman. I mean, he's a smart guy as well as being an incredible football player. I think he's easily, you know, one of those guys easy to root for. Think it's be interesting to watch his development through the season.

[Chip Patterson]

100%. Congratulations on the big win and congratulations to John Matier for being our hymn of the week. And that was the hymn of the week sponsored by the upcoming film Him. Producer Jordan Peele invites you to Football, Sports and Horror. The Football, Sports and horror event of the season which asks the question, what are you willing to sacrifice? See him only in theaters September 19th. Coming up on the other side we go under the hood. It is a chance to clean out the notebook from week two. It's upon further review and more next.

[Bud Elliott]

This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to do list is a great feeling. And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you.

[Tom Fornelli]

For you.

[Bud Elliott]

Whether you prefer talking in person on the phone or using the award winning app it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

[Tom Fornelli]

This episode is brought to you by Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels and music are made for each other. They share a rhythm in the craft of making something timeless while being a part of legendary nights. From backyard channel jams to sold out arenas, there's a song in every toast.

[Danny Cannell]

Please drink responsibly.

[Tom Fornelli]

Responsibility.org Jack Daniels and old number seven are registered trademarks. Tennessee Whiskey 40 alcohol by volume Jack Daniel Distillery, Lynchburg, Tennessee.

[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast Tailgate. We appreciate you. You know, we got some things to do. We got checklists. Now it's time to go under the hood every single Monday. More time to look back at the weekend. That was before we turn our attention forward. It is upon further review. There were terrible calls. Do you want to go ahead and jump in after further review, after further.

[Danny Cannell]

Review, after further review.

[Chip Patterson]

Back all right, bud. You, you, you, you've got your eyes set on a, on a top 10 team that got jumped. It got jumped in the AP poll, got jumped in the CBS Sports 136, which is updated and now available on CBSSports.com they haven't played anybody, you know, but you've, you've got some thoughts on, on the Georgia Bulldogs and what we can learn from from the first two weeks of action, especially with the big one on deck against Tennessee.

[Bud Elliott]

So I had a Jordan take for last week that I forgot to get off and I, I'm kind of glad I forgot now because I my take was essentially, hey, with, you know, with Lagway not looking amazing against Long island. Right. With Arch maybe not being like that guy right now for Texas a little bit. Maybe he'll get there. Certainly we can talk about, you know, whether he's hurt or not. A couple more guys in this league not looking anything special like Sellers not appearing to have taken any kind of meaningful jump for South Carolina. Right. Alabama looking like they're, you know, going for a nice jog on a Saturday in Tallahassee, Georgia. Just sitting there with an absolute death star of a defense and just a an upgraded receiving core and maybe a healthier offensive line and a competent quarterback. Kirby's just going to sit back in the cut and laugh. Right? Okay, cool. Like everybody theoretically thought they were going to take a jump and meanwhile, like our best is actually pretty damn good. They rotated a whole lot offensive linemen on Saturday. I think some of that was because injury, obviously Juan Gaston, the stud we talked about in In Camp Buzz, you know, thanks to Jordan there at dogs247, he was actually injured from the opening game, but having a freshman guard missed the game probably shouldn't make your entire offensive line fall apart against Austin P. And if you watch the post game, he doesn't come out and say it, but I can't help but think Kirby Smart's a little bit frustrated with Gunner Stockton. And I. I think if Georgia had the Carson Beck that we saw for Miami on this team right now, I think they would be my number one with the Bullet. I. I don't think Stockton looks like a guy through two games. Just two games, plus what we saw in the playoff, which was not. Not even good. I don't know that Georgia can cash this defense in for a national title unless he takes it, like, a real leap. It doesn't look like, you know, a quarterback of a top five team.

[Chip Patterson]

You think he can get there?

[Bud Elliott]

I don't know. I don't think he has special tools, so he's got to do all the little things right. Consistently.

[Chip Patterson]

Are we putting any blame at the feet of. Of everyone's favorite coaching candidate, Mike Boba?

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, Stockton is his guy, Right. I'm curious that, like, they do have a dude that has tools on that team, though, in Puglisi. Yeah. Like, that guy throws 100 miles an hour. I. I am curious to see if he gets any kind of. Any kind of run here at some point, you know? Have you guys peeped the spread on that game yet this weekend? Yeah, it's four. Yep. And that's without. And that's with Tennessee having both starting corners out, right? Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

If it wasn't for that, I would say dead under, you know, but. But with the. With the Tennessee starting corners out and Zachariah Branch, you know, I could. I could see enough explosives being hit there that it's not as easy as just walking and under to the window.

[Bud Elliott]

But, yeah, it's two games. We shouldn't make a huge deal out of it. It's just. I. It's like the stuff we haven't seen yet, you know, like, all right, well, where is it? When's it coming?

[Chip Patterson]

Yep, they gotta find it. He's playing in Knoxville this weekend. Very, very, very, very big moment ahead. Can't wait to break that one down. On Wednesday's big game breakdown, Tom, where do you want to turn our attention?

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, so many places. Let's see. Where do I want to start? Upon further review, Duke fans or college football Twitter media types who picked and bet on Duke to win. Still want you to know that Duke would have won if they hadn't turned the ball over five times and made a bunch of coaching mistakes. So I want to be clear upon further review, Duke still would have won if they had played better than the team that they played against and Duke would still have won being underdogs this week against the two lane team they bought their quarterback from. So other than that, they would have won. The other fun thing I want to point out, Oklahoma State in its loss to Oregon on Saturday, maybe you heard about it, they lost 69. 3. They looked fantastic. They averaged an astounding minus 1.15 EPA per drop back in that game.

[Chip Patterson]

Now for contact, snap the ball. Don't like snapping the ball every time.

[Tom Fornelli]

Zane Flores dropped back to pass. They lost a point pretty much. But it's, it's the worst performance by any offense in a game since 2023 when army was at minus 1.25 against LSU. But if we take out the service academies who are not exactly teams built upon dropping back and throwing the football, it is the worst performance since Oregon State was at minus 1.42 EPA per drop back in 2022. And you know who they played in that game?

[Chip Patterson]

Oregon.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oregon. So I don't know, man. Something about Oregon defense makes other quarterbacks really suck hard.

[Chip Patterson]

I went through and I enjoyed, you know, week one just such a blitz going from Monday night into trying to pack everything in. Don't. Didn't really have a lot of chance to, to really go fully under the hood. So I went through yesterday and I started separating teams that are significantly better than what I was expecting coming into the year and teams that are significantly worse. And I kind of was starting at the end, there were some teams that I think and I wanted to at least, you know, throw this at you guys and see if you agree. I think that Oregon is better than I thought coming into the year. Agree?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

100.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. Because we were talking about a floor for Oregon. We're like, oh, they're so talented. Like they're not gonna, bottom's not gonna fall out. But we could easily see this team fall into 9 and 3 or 8 and 4. And I don't, I just don't see that whatsoever. Oregon even coming in, having Oregon as a top three team in the Big Ten, they are significantly better than what I had coming into the year because the quarterback. You think so?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I, I, he, he helps to raise that floor because of how on time and how accurate he is.

[Chip Patterson]

Significantly better.

[Bud Elliott]

Tennessee Disagree.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, we'll see.

[Bud Elliott]

Like they needed over. If Syracuse had played Yukon to overtime in Week one, Tennessee would not be receiving the hype that they are now. The order in which the games were played mattered because we had not seen Syracuse play yet. So we were still sort of imputing that nine winner, 10 win season from 24 for Syracuse, when in fact, like, they lost almost all their good players and I don't think they're any good.

[Chip Patterson]

You think Tennessee thinks that they are better than they thought, like inside that building.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, they're feeling good about themselves for sure, but I don't know. I don't. I don't think Tennessee's thinking it's going to go in there and whoop Georgia this week just by showing up or anything.

[Danny Cannell]

I will say, last year at this time, Nico was a Heisman favorite. Remember, he went in Charlotte and played NC State and he was lighting them up. I think it's like a little bit tentatively cautious on Joey Aguilar being an upgrade and all this. Like, I think he's looked great and he's hit a lot of throws and he's performed well in a system which puts up a lot of points. Kind of curious to see what he does against better competition.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

USC better than I thought. Another one. Is it the competition or do you think that USC is better than what you were expecting coming into the season?

[Tom Fornelli]

I think it's the competition.

[Danny Cannell]

I still think USC is like in the conversation for that 4th best big 10 team.

[Tom Fornelli]

Agree.

[Bud Elliott]

I think they are the 4th best big 10 team.

[Tom Fornelli]

How dare you.

[Bud Elliott]

Lincoln told us that he thought the stuff that the quarterback had messed up as a young player, easily correctable. And now I think he, he looks clean, man.

[Chip Patterson]

He looks really good.

[Tom Fornelli]

But, but, but, but we. Earlier in the show, in this show, the very show you're on, we were talking about how great and accurate the AP poll is. And there are currently four teams from the Big Ten in the top 10. Not one of them is USC.

[Chip Patterson]

Bud, that's, that's fair that we will listen. Don't worry, we got usc. We'll have plenty of time to talk about them this week, including a little spotlight on Tuesday's CBS Sports Network show. Okay, who's worse? Kansas State.

[Bud Elliott]

More clearly.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah, no, no, I'm saying, like teams that have gotten significant expectations.

[Tom Fornelli]

I thought we were playing like, who's worse?

[Bud Elliott]

Kansas State fans, but Iowa State's undefeated and I think every team they've played so far is going to go way under their win total.

[Chip Patterson]

Kansas State which was one among the top picks on the odds board to win. The Big 12 is hoping for a bowl game at this point.

[Bud Elliott]

Is Iowa hoping for a bowl game?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

So, okay, I mean, here's like I was looking at this because again, I do the, the vibe check on Saturday nights. Like, the Big 12 has five wins against Power 4 competition, but they are UCLA, North Carolina, Iowa, SMU and Stanford. Like outside of SMU. Are we confident that any of the other four will get to a bowl game?

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, wait, one more time on that because that.

[Tom Fornelli]

Them.

[Bud Elliott]

No.

[Tom Fornelli]

Ucla.

[Chip Patterson]

No, no.

[Tom Fornelli]

North Carolina, definitely. I mean, their schedule is so. Yeah, Iowa. I'm, I'm kind of whatever on them right now. I think we're all a little skeptical.

[Bud Elliott]

They did just lose by three on the road. Like, yeah, they know how to deal with playing 10 minute on offense.

[Tom Fornelli]

They look like crap. And then Stanford, I think we're all very solidly. They're not getting to a bowl. I feel like SMU is the only one of those five where you're like, yeah, they're going so.

[Chip Patterson]

But SMU's next on my list. A huge downgrade. I know they're still like, I know they're still ranked on nine ballots. I mean, they're not going to be.

[Tom Fornelli]

In the playoff again, but I think they're still a solid eight win team.

[Bud Elliott]

They're a downgrade from what we thought they were.

[Tom Fornelli]

Not to me.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Although I will say this, I'm actually working on a post right now on this. Do you want to know who's tied for second in the nation with more turnover worthy throws than big or turnover worthy plays and big time throws?

[Chip Patterson]

Kevin Jackson.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, damn.

[Chip Patterson]

No, it's Kevin. I just, I don't think. And you know you can't take anything away from the first one, but there was a lot in the game against Baylor that was alarming. I know we made the joke about blowing the lead, but even if they had won, I might have come back and ratcheted it back a little bit. And I think that it's important for me to frame it where I had them as a top 20 team. I had them as a team that was maybe the third or fourth best in the acc and now they are sliding back towards that middle pack of teams. What was it the ham sandwiches, Danny? Yeah, they are looking a lot more like a ham sandwich than a playoff contender right now. So I've got SMU as a big time downgrade. Also got Duke as a downgrade.

[Danny Cannell]

Now I'll go back to the Guy that Tom was interacting with the Duke fan. The game was closer than the score.

[Chip Patterson]

I agree.

[Danny Cannell]

Said. I think Darian Mensah will get better as the season goes on. I think they'll have a better time against some ACC opponents. But like I think Duke's probably, I mean did anybody think they were going to be a ACC contender? Like I think they're probably a eight win team still.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I think, I think that they are. I again I, I find them gravitating back more towards just not being that special. I think Darian Mins is a talented quarterback. I think they are an average ACC team and I was thinking that based on the way that they won games last year they could be an above average ACC team. But it, I mean it is the coaching mistakes. It was the like mistakes on the field shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly. It's just not, it did not look like winning football. And that's normally how you close the margins at a place like Duke.

[Bud Elliott]

How many teams nac would you take over Duke though?

[Chip Patterson]

Five or six?

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, I mean I'm taking Clemson, Florida State, Miami.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

Louisville.

[Tom Fornelli]

I would take Louisville even though Louisville did not exactly cover itself in glory against Madison. Yeah, but so yeah, I would say those five.

[Chip Patterson]

Georgia Tech.

[Bud Elliott]

No.

[Tom Fornelli]

I think they're about the same.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, right, exactly. Like I think there's kind of that kind of glob of smu. Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke.

[Chip Patterson]

Big downgrades on UCLA in North Carolina and Oklahoma State. Any arguments with those three very big.

[Tom Fornelli]

Downgrades again, you know like Danny selling Mark Gronowski. Like UCLA, they allowed pressure on 62 and a half percent of their drop backs in the open against Utah down to 26.1 against UNLV. So only a quarter of the time is Nico being harassed now and as.

[Chip Patterson]

I was doing a reassessment of the Tar Heels it we keep saying but the schedule, but the schedule, but the schedule. And the problem is that North Carolina is the team that everybody else in the ACC wants to play. They are much more like Cal and Wake Forest and Stanford than they are like a team that like an NC State or a Duke. So yeah, I mean they still have. It's better than having to have it loaded up with Miami, Florida State and Clemson. They will play Clemson on October 4th. But I just think that those games that we just sort of circled as well. Look, that's how Belichick gets to seven, eight wins. Those are way more coin flippy because this, this team right now, Charlotte might be one of the worst teams in the fbs.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

North North Carolina did enough to win against one of the worst teams in the. In the FCS fbs. Excuse me.

[Tom Fornelli]

Go. Going back to the Duke thing, though. Sorry, but I was making fun of the Duke fans. And Danny, you said the game was closer than it looked. I talked about in the big game breakdown last week, and I talked about during the locks pod, Illinois's game plan was going to be to force Darian Mensa to read it because they thought he would make mistakes. If they did, that's what they did, and that's what he did. The five turnovers weren't by accident. The muff.

[Danny Cannell]

Fair enough. Yeah, the muff pump was for sure. I got one.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Danny Cannell]

Don't be deceived by a stat line. Are we worried about Arch Manning? And when I say, are we worried about it? Because if you look at the stat line, almost had three hundredths passing. He had four touchdowns. I watched a lot of this game early, and then when the score kind of got sideways, stop watching it. But then you see some of these videos circulating of Arch grimacing and looking like he's laboring while he's throwing. I will say this. When I watched him against Ohio State, was a little bit concerned about the mechanics. The arm didn't look great. It didn't look extremely strong in that game. I know he's been an easy, you know, kind of punching bag for the critics of Arch Manning. But early in that game against San Jose State, he did not look comfortable in the pocket. He does not like people around his feet, which no quarterback does, but he was kind of thrown off by it. But I guess more importantly, is, is there something going on with him? Because we found ourselves asking this about Quinn Ewers all last year. I was like, is something going on? And I don't know if it's a similar situation where there's something impacting him, but he does not look 100 when he's throwing the football.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, he's grimacing when he throws. He got hit pretty good in that Texas game early on or in the Ohio State game.

[Tom Fornelli]

I. Yeah, I don't. I don't think so.

[Bud Elliott]

He looks hurt.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't think he's hurt. I don't know if you guys saw horns 24 7. They did an investigation. Oh, Hank south at horns 24 7. Our great Texas side. If you are a Texas fan and you are not subscribed to the horns 24 7, you are a bad Texas fan. But he went through a bunch of photos from Last year. And you know what Arch Manning is doing in every photo of him throwing?

[Chip Patterson]

Making a Manning wincing.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's just what he does when he throws the football. That's his Manning face. He looks like he's in pain. In every single one of these photos going back to his high school, they've got a photo of him like throwing the ball. I think that's just what he looks like when he throws.

[Chip Patterson]

Does he hate football?

[Tom Fornelli]

It's all the expectations of being a Manning are coming out like, oh, I'm so mad.

[Chip Patterson]

The pressures of the moment, I mean, that's. He's being forced to play this sport against his will, you know.

[Tom Fornelli]

And now Peyton's got his son showing up in promos on Sunday Night Football. Like the Mannings are just. They're bringing out the next one. Arch has struggled for two weeks time.

[Bud Elliott]

To bring out the new one. He has still made some really good throws.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm not real worried about it other than just like if, if he is.

[Danny Cannell]

Hurt, you know, I tend to lean with. He's not hurt that. It was more just. He still doesn't look comfortable, you know. And I thought early in the game especially there were still some nerves and maybe pressing a little bit where he just didn't look comfortable again. He's very young. He's got another two weeks. I thought the game in Gainesville and I still think it will be a crazy environment. I still think it could provide some problems for him. So we'll see. But he's got two more weeks to get that confidence up and stats will do wonders for your confidence. You start patting stats and all of a sudden your touchdown interest, touchdown 10 inception ratios 13 or 14 to 1. You start feeling a bit better about yourself.

[Chip Patterson]

His on field post game interview, Danny, don't know if you caught it, but he's. He's doing all the things that you'd want because he's not talking about the stats. He's talking about sloppiness and the execution issues and stuff that they still got to clean up. So, you know, he's, he, he's not, he's not letting himself get overtaken even by the little bits of success. He's. He's trying to hold himself to a high standard.

[Tom Fornelli]

I would say like Marcel Reed tore UTEP apart and Bud will tell you how badly he sucks. So if Arch Manning can't tear UTEP apart this week, then I think it's.

[Bud Elliott]

Time to worry you guys are. You guys ain't right. I, I'm gonna try and share my screen here.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, be careful.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, yeah. What do we got on there? Real quick, you gotta.

[Bud Elliott]

You gotta see this. See if Mikey. Add that graphic if you can. Is that gonna fit on screen?

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, God. Ben Goldfield.

[Bud Elliott]

The worst crap I've ever seen.

[Chip Patterson]

Again.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, it was looking dicey. And then he had to pick six. And I was like, all right, we're back, baby.

[Bud Elliott]

Working with, like. I'm trying to zoom in on it, guys.

[Tom Fornelli]

For those listening who can't see it is a radar chart showing where Ben Goldbrintson ranks and, like, percentiles and a whole bunch of stats. And let's just say the stats, you want to be outside the top, maybe one percentile. He's not in any of them.

[Bud Elliott]

How far do I have to zoom in to see it? Like, I think you're trolling us here. Like, there's no way. There's. There's even little blips on some of these, right? Zoom. Okay, so this is. All right, you see. Okay, you see a little ridge detail here? Like, we're doing fingerprint Investigations on that? Negative 12.2. Percentage over expectation. I never seen it.

[Tom Fornelli]

And they've got him dropping back to pass repeatedly. Now, I know they were trailing for a lot of the BYU game, but it's just. It's like, oh, no.

[Bud Elliott]

He's a dead average rusher, bro. Look at that. 0.0. All right, so we have EPA snuff film right here. This is. This is sad.

[Chip Patterson]

NSFW.

[Tom Fornelli]

Explosive.

[Bud Elliott]

Explosive percentage. God, imagine if you were the DB that allowed the 2.2% explosive percentage.

[Chip Patterson]

Getting cooked in film study for sure.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. What's our. What's our. 29.3. I. We. We can get off this if we need to. I just. Percentage. Yeah. We're under a third successful plays. That's remarkable. EPA per pass. That's not. Not surprising. Percentage is low.

[Tom Fornelli]

Real low. Maybe not it.

[Chip Patterson]

Upon further review. Maybe not. I. I'm glad you called that out. James Madison whipping Louisville at the line of scrimmage. Yes. Is maybe concerning for Louisville, but maybe also maybe we found our darling in the Fun belt.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, yeah, that. That defensive line looks like it's going to give the Sun Belt some problems. Yeah, I don't think that was just strictly Louisville. I think that's.

[Chip Patterson]

I agree.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Anything else from the notebook?

[Tom Fornelli]

Let's see.

[Bud Elliott]

Nope.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. LSU's guard Braylon Moore hurt his ankle late in that game against LA Tech, and they were already really thin on.

[Chip Patterson]

The offensive line, so obviously, very Very big as they play host to the Florida Gators in a bounce back spot. All right, tomorrow, noon Eastern time, CBS Sports Network will be getting you set for week three in the Big Ten. That means some Big Ten big game breakdowns. A lot of, a lot of teams are going to be heavy favorites here. So we'll put the spotlight, you know, let's look at Oregon deeper, dive into what's working. Let's look at Ohio State, usc. Look at what's really helping those strong starts to the season. A little Julian saying great. And so much more. It is Big Ten week three getting you set on Tuesday. Yes. Danny.

[Danny Cannell]

Did you guys see who's going to be Michigan's interim coach on the sideline this weekend? Biff. He's gotta work. Wear the cutoff, please. The disgusting one with the side boob. Please wear that one.

[Tom Fornelli]

The TFT is back. It's Arkansas plan.

[Chip Patterson]

Arkansas's playing Ole Miss.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, man.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

We're back. All right, so that'll be on Tuesday, noon eastern time. CBS Sports Network. Hang out. Watch us live. You can get the show on YouTube.com cover3 or wherever you get your podcast. Then Wednesday we'll be back here, YouTube.com cover three for a big game breakdown. Going inside the matchup of Texas A and M, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, lsu, and so much more than Thursday. It's locks. And then the week three arrives. So come and hang out YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fradel. You can follow him at Danny Canel. You can follow him@bud elliot3. Follow me at chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Go Bears.

[Bud Elliott]

We talked Missouri on Saturday.

[Tom Fornelli]

Is this a hit it situation?

[Danny Cannell]

Whatever kind of adventure we want it.

[Chip Patterson]

To be now streaming on Paramount.

[Tom Fornelli]

Plus it's an all new season of adventures. We have to stop this invasion, get into this shit.

[Chip Patterson]

This crew is a team. We are going to find our way.

[Bud Elliott]

Out of this together. Pay on.

[Tom Fornelli]

It'S one in a thousand.

[Chip Patterson]

We get it done right or don't blow ourselves up a little bit. Movie.

[Danny Cannell]

I like those odds. We'll just turn it off before we blow up.

[Tom Fornelli]

Star Trek Strange new worlds. New season now streaming on Paramount Plus.