Upon Further Review: Texas & Penn State fall from AP Top 25, updated CFP Projections, Belichick mess

Summary

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Cover 3 College Football: AP Top 25 Shakeup, Poll Debates & CFP Projections

Episode: Upon Further Review: Texas & Penn State fall from AP Top 25, updated CFP Projections, Belichick mess
Date: October 6, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Episode Overview

This episode digs deep into the aftermath of Week 6 in college football, focusing on the fallout as Texas and Penn State drop out of the AP Top 25. The team debates the rationale behind voters’ decisions, highlights inconsistencies in the polling process, and discusses updated College Football Playoff (CFP) projections in light of the latest results. The hosts also break down “brilliantly boring” wins, assess several under-appreciated teams, and share under-the-radar storylines through their “Upon Further Review” segment. Lively, irreverent, and rooted in deep expertise, this episode delivers analysis with a healthy dose of skepticism and humor.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AP Top 25 Fallout: Texas & Penn State Out

[03:06–06:52]

• Opening Postmortem:
  • The group addresses fan unrest, specifically noting “everyone’s mad” about the turbulence in the Top 25.
  • Chip Patterson highlights that Ohio State maintains the top AP spot, but Miami gains traction, surging in first-place votes. Coaches Poll remains more static.
  • The panel discusses whether voters applied objective criteria, finally dropping Texas and Penn State from the rankings due to lack of Power Conference wins.

Danny Kanell [05:35]:
“I feel like our campaigns have been heard... you are not supposed to give teams the benefit of the doubt based on their preseason perception... If you’re a Texas fan or a Penn State [fan]... Go win some games and we’ll put you back in.”

• Debate Over Poll Logic & Inconsistencies:
  • Disagreement surfaces over teams like Memphis and BYU maintaining ranked status despite uninspiring schedules.
  • The group notes that these teams at least “played somebody,” though Bud Elliott contends Memphis’ “quality win” over Arkansas is dubious since “Arkansas is garbage” ([07:04]).
  • Critique of poll inertia: Teams sometimes get credit for “not losing,” regardless of schedule strength.

Tom Fornelli [08:43]:
“What does the ranking have to do with a game being good?”
(Bud and Tom spar over whether scheduling and resume should drive rankings or simply wins/losses.)

2. Polling Process: Voters’ Logic on Texas and Penn State

[11:05–13:49]

• They put specific AP voters on blast for their ballots—especially those giving Texas relatively high marks compared to Florida State or Penn State.
• Tom Fornelli singles out inconsistencies and power-ranking tendencies in voters’ ballots.

Tom Fornelli [12:27]:
“If you're going to rank both... how is that an eight spot difference?... How does the same logic not apply to Texas?”

• Bud jokes about “the Gainesville Triangle” (a Bermuda triangle for football results), speculating some voters simply don’t receive the right info.

3. Tiers and Debates: CBS Sports 136 & Who’s No. 1?

[14:04–17:19]

• The CBS Sports 136 (composite ranking) indicates little consensus among voters for the top spot—Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon all tightly bunched.
• The group sees “a definitive top tier” and a genuine separation from the rest of the Top 10.
• They discuss Alabama, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech as intriguing second-tier options with momentum, particularly Tech’s growing Big 12 dominance.

4. Miami, Florida State, and Game Decisions: Coaching Critiques

[18:21–23:09]

• Danny Kanell recaps his experience at the Miami-FSU game, with FSU’s loss featuring several coaching decisions he critiques:
  • Going for it on 4th-and-8 early in a tight game.
  • Gambling with an early onside kick.
• Bud Elliott defends the aggressive approach but notes execution matters most.
• They joke about whether Miami’s Mario Cristobal “called off the dogs” late, but agree he was “furious,” not coasting.

5. Polls and Playoff Projections: SEC, Big 12, and ACC Outlooks

[26:25–32:41]

• New “Brilliantly Boring Wins” highlight: Texas A&M over Mississippi State, lauded for physical defense and run game dominance.
• Bud Elliott shares CFP projections:
  • His model briefly showed six SEC teams making the expanded field, but with no bye (reflecting depth, not top-heaviness).
  • Predicts undefeated runs for Texas Tech and Miami, while the Big Ten's top two are most likely to get byes.
  • Consensus: SEC depth impressive, but the new CFP SOS metric could reshuffle priorities, especially for conferences with softer schedules.

Bud Elliott [28:16]:
“I don't see how like a two loss [SEC] champ...would have a resume over a 12-1 loser of the Big Ten championship game... unless [the SEC] sneaks in a bunch of 8–4 teams into their final Top 25.”

• Discussion about the relative “ease” of Miami’s path, as FSU and Irish games are behind them and Charlotte’s likely ACC title game opponent isn’t formidable.

6. Good Team or Good Record?—Fun Audit on Under-the-Radar Teams

[43:07–49:11]

• Chip introduces a rapid-fire segment to debate if certain 4- or 5-win teams are genuinely good or just beneficiaries of an easy schedule:
  • Nebraska: Mostly a “good record” not a good team, but with stylistic strengths.
  • TCU & Tennessee: More consensus as “good team,” though lack of quality wins a concern.
  • Tennessee’s loss to Georgia is seen as close; some hosts argue they “should have won.”

Tom Fornelli [47:48]:
“I think all these teams are in a very similar tier. You need to see a little bit more to make them earn it.”

7. Upon Further Review: Re-examining Week 6 Takeaways

[40:09–64:06]

• Rewatch Insights:
  • Tom Fornelli rewatched Michigan-Wisconsin: Praises Michigan’s QB Bryce Underwood for his best game and believes Michigan is surging as a Big Ten Playoff dark horse.
  • Hosts stress the difference between perception in live multi-screen viewing vs. “film” rewatch.

Tom Fornelli [41:51]:
“I feel like Bryce Underwood played his best game as a Michigan Wolverine... Michigan's bigger problem in that game was they just didn't finish drives in the red zone... This is a team defensively really starting to figure things out.”

• North Carolina Rant—"Trust the Process":
  • A dramatic segment (52:17–61:05) skewers UNC football for sending a lengthy letter justifying a “tanking” season, referencing “Trust the Process” and inaction by the AD/administration.
  • Chip and the team blast the embarrassing operational state, declining on-field performance, and lack of engagement with alumni/boosters.
  • They mock the absurd length (1,400+ words) and empty platitudes of the letter and highlight how UNC even failed at basic PR—neglecting to celebrate Drake Maye’s NFL success on social.

Chip Patterson [54:14]: “This is the thing that is the most important... We are going to suck. It’s okay, we’re building for the future. Was sent before the Clemson game... And then the very first play from scrimmage was a procedural penalty.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Danny Kanell [05:35]:
  “If you're a Texas or Penn State [fan]...go win some games and we'll put you back in.”
• Bud Elliott [13:20]:
  “You have like the Bermuda Triangle where stuff just disappears... I think Haley has, like, a Gainesville triangle where whatever happens inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium does not...get broadcast to wherever she lives.”
• Tom Fornelli [41:51]:
  “I feel like Bryce Underwood played his best game as a Michigan Wolverine... This is gonna be a very scary team come November.”
• Tom Fornelli [46:13]:
  “Lowest air yards per attempt by quarterbacks in wins... Nebraska fans, I see a whole lot of his completion percentage stats... he's throwing bubble screens, folks.”
• Chip Patterson [54:14]:
  “We are going to suck. It's okay, we're building for the future... The very first play from scrimmage was a procedural penalty.”

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Important Timestamps

• 03:06 – Host introductions & AP Top 25 shakeup, Penn State/Texas fallout
• 05:35 – Kanell applauds voters for finally dropping Texas and Penn State
• 07:00–09:00 – Memphis/BYU/Florida State poll debates
• 11:05 – Host analysis of specific AP voter ballots
• 14:04 – CBS Sports 136 deep dive: Ohio State, Miami, Oregon “top tier” debate
• 18:21 – Kanell, Bud, and Chip analyze Miami–FSU game and coaching decisions
• 26:25 – “Brilliantly Boring Wins” – Texas A&M’s methodical, dominant win
• 27:20–32:41 – CFP projection models: six SEC teams? How new SOS metric may shift the landscape
• 33:15 – Big Ten’s third/fourth Playoff team debate; USC, Michigan analysis
• 40:09 – Shift to “Upon Further Review”: hosts reassess earlier perceptions after rewatch
• 43:07 – “Good Team or Good Record?” segment: Nebraska, TCU, Tennessee, et al.
• 52:17–61:05 – Extended UNC “Trust the Process” letter rant; program management critique
• 64:06 – Miscellaneous: Arkansas State–Texas State wild finish, GJ Kinne coaching credentials

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Engaging & Entertaining Moments

• The Gainesville Triangle: Bud jokes about why certain voters seem to disregard Florida game results (13:20).
• UNC “Trust the Process” Dramatic Reading: Chip roasts a 1,400-word apologetic memo, comparing UNC football’s management to Sam Hinkie’s infamous NBA tanking—critiquing incompetence and lack of vision (52:17–61:05).
• Debate Game – Good Team or Good Record?: The hosts play a rapid-fire “audit” on which unheralded, higher-record teams are ‘for real’ or beneficiaries of weak schedules (43:07–49:11).

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Signature Takeaways & Tone

• Calling Out the Polls & Inertia: The hosts maintain a consistent, critical eye on how teams are evaluated, refusing to let tradition or preseason hype dictate the narrative.
• Humorous but Insightful: Even as they rib each other and the sport, analysis is sharp, grounded in stats and insider observations.
• Bringing Transparency to Polls and Playoff Models: Whether discussing six SEC teams or the shifting fortunes of Texas & Penn State, the podcast demystifies the logic of rankings and projections, helping listeners see the underlying reasoning (or lack thereof).
• Candid Critique of College Football Institutions: From coaching decisions to athletic department communications, no one gets a free pass.

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For the Die-Hard and Casual Fan Alike

If you missed this episode, you missed a passionate, layered discussion about what really matters in college football today—who plays, who gets rewarded, and how the narratives are shaped. With plenty of humor, pointed analysis, and memorable rants, it’s a must-listen for anyone following the sport’s twists and turns in 2025.

Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

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[Bud Elliott]

Episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast Smart move Being financially savvy Smart move. Another smart move having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bund.

[Chip Patterson]

Just another way to save with a.

[Bud Elliott]

Personal price plan like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and.

[Chip Patterson]

Eligibility vary by state.

[Bud Elliott]

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli.

[Tom Fernelli]

Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.

[Bud Elliott]

Football coverage from national signing day to the championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson. Come to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the COVID 3 tailgate where they are proposing a Lincoln Riley for James Franklin. Swap. Huh? Is that another accomplished. Yeah, I was gonna say is that another. Everyone's mad.

[Tom Fernelli]

It does feel like everyone's mad.

[Chip Patterson]

But yeah, yeah, well, listen, lots more to get into as we continue to diagnose what has been a rough, rough. So postmortem for Penn State after losing at UCLA over the weekend, they've got Northwestern coming up this week. Plenty more to look at in terms of the Nittany Lions moving ahead. We also are going to continue to take a look at just a bigger, deeper dive into not just what happened, but let's look ahead. How about some College Football Playoff projections are brilliantly boring. Wins of the week and so much more. But let's not waste any more time because before we get into upon further review, we've got to check out what happened at the poll. New AP Top 25 does in fact have a little bit of some shifting up top. Now Ohio State did hold on to that number one spot, but Miami jumped ahead of Oregon and swiped a lot of first place votes. The Hurricanes now with 21 first place votes. The Oregon Ducks with just 4, 5. That is very different from the coaches poll where Ohio State remains 59 first place votes. Just three for Oregon, three for Miami. Ducks stay in the second spot. So the voters, the media is all about the, uh, Ohio State again. That gap is narrowing. Got Some CBS Sports 136 information as well to be able to share with you. Now, one of our debates from project from tomorrow's top 25 on Saturday night was would the AP top 25 voters drop Texas and Penn State all the way out? Would they instead just, you know, kick Florida State and Iowa State to the curb? No Iowa State, you stay in Florida State, you stay in Texas and Penn State, your combined zero power conference wins, you are out of here. Danny Canal, you're clapping your hands.

[Danny Cannell]

Give them a round of applause. I feel like our campaigns have Been heard. I feel like this is making real change, real progress in the college football landscape when this is exactly what you're supposed to do. Now, I do think it may be a little bit late to the party, because if you would have asked the same question before those games, you would have had the same answer. How many teams from the power four have either Texas or Penn State beaten? And the answer is zero. But it was zero before these games. And I think this is actually a step in the right direction because I don't know if this happens a couple years ago, but you are not supposed to give teams the benefit of the doubt based on their preseason perception or the preseason speculation. So I think this is a good move. And if you're a Texas fan or a Penn State and you're like, screw those guys, why do they have this campaign against our schools? Go win some games and we'll put you back in. You can earn your way back into the top 25. Both you guys have more than ample opportunity to do so. Once you do that, you can work your way back in. But I think this is a big step in the right direction from the voters. Although you do look at the amount of people that kept them in there, and it's kind of a little bit of a head scratcher. But for the most part, the fact that they did drop all the way down from seven to nine is, I think, a step in the right direction.

[Bud Elliott]

Top half of the poll. I'm pretty okay with bottom half of the poll. I have some issues this week. Like Memphis has no quality wins.

[Chip Patterson]

They've got more power conference wins than Texas or Penn State do.

[Bud Elliott]

Sure, it's Arkansas. Arkansas is garbage.

[Chip Patterson]

That's a power conference team.

[Danny Cannell]

At least they played somebody. Is that SEC team. At least they played somebody.

[Bud Elliott]

All right, BYU has no good wins at all. Like BYU fans, for some reason.

[Tom Fernelli]

How many losses do they have?

[Bud Elliott]

Reason to hate me. Like Y is is garbage so far backs how many losses?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, ECU's like an American Conference contender.

[Bud Elliott]

So we're just as holster rewarding people for playing garbage schedules and not losing.

[Tom Fernelli]

No, we're rewarding people for winning games against nonsense.

[Danny Cannell]

And well, but that's why Texas, who.

[Tom Fernelli]

You play, it's how you play. And BYU is playing nobody and treating them like nobody. They're beating.

[Danny Cannell]

And speaking of playing nonsense, Colorado by.

[Bud Elliott]

A field goal, they. I mean, but.

[Danny Cannell]

Also. But speaking of nonsense, Penn State and Texas, their. Their schedules have been garbage. Now, if you want to argue Texas, they played Ohio State, but that argument doesn't Work for Penn State. Like their, their schedule is the worst in the country. They haven't beaten anybody. Texas I could see if you wanted to hang on to them and say well at least they played Ohio State. But then we're talking about good losses, which I cannot stand. Talking about good losses.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, but if we, if we want.

[Bud Elliott]

To have better games to watch in the sport, then we need to be able to recognize good performances independent of what the, like the final, like you know, if you go to double overtime with somebody, the team that wins gets all the credit and team loses gets done for like, for trophy purposes at the end of the year certainly. But like for evaluation purposes. If we're making a poll like you got to recognize a good performance against another good team.

[Tom Fernelli]

What does the ranking have to do with a game being good?

[Bud Elliott]

Because you want to actually see like decent games being scheduled. BYU is getting rewarded for crap non conference scheduling, but at least they played.

[Tom Fernelli]

So you, you, you like, you need to see Alabama BYU in week one.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, because we've had a good game.

[Tom Fernelli]

You think they suck. You just said so.

[Bud Elliott]

At least play somebody.

[Tom Fernelli]

They have.

[Bud Elliott]

I think their resume to this point sucks. I don't know if they sucked. I think they're just like, like a, you know, slightly below average P4 team.

[Tom Fernelli]

But they're 5 0. They can be ranked 20th or wherever they're ranked. It's not a big deal.

[Bud Elliott]

Memphis has a lot of good games coming up. I think Memphis is getting pre credit for this. Like Memphis is going to play usf. They're going to play too late. They're going to play Navy. Like you know, those are our actual games coming up. I don't really see, you know, South.

[Chip Patterson]

Florida's got a power conference win.

[Bud Elliott]

They do.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Like that, that should count for something, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, that was, that was essentially the decision. Memphis usf, you are in. Texas, Penn State, you are out. And that's like, that's the pretty clean math there.

[Bud Elliott]

How is Cincinnati under Iowa State?

[Tom Fernelli]

Well, because Iowa State was ranked higher last week.

[Bud Elliott]

Like they blasted Iowa State. Their only loss is like what a single score game to open the year at Nebraska.

[Chip Patterson]

But I told you that the Nebraska thing was going to be difficult because Nebraska's not getting any credit.

[Danny Cannell]

I would flip flop Cincinnati and Iowa State. I'd be totally okay with that.

[Tom Fernelli]

I would be fine with that too.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Notre Dame should not be overshoot. Both have a single score loss to Miami. Florida State beat a top what? Top eight team, I guess now by two touchdowns. Notre Dame has no Good wins.

[Chip Patterson]

That's a fair. That's a fair gripe. I mean, what's happening is Notre Dame lost at the right time.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

They got all their losses out of the way, and now they're just gonna be just gonna sit here and just. Just climb up. They're sitting there. They're at the DMV and their ticket said, like, D95. And everybody else is quitting because they've got to go pick up their kids from school. Notre Dame, childless. I guess that's weird for Notre Dame, but Notre Dame's just sitting there and they're like, hey, well, you know, like, I'm just going to keep on moving up and up and up and up and sooner. They're gonna be a top 10 team by the beginning of November.

[Tom Fernelli]

That was catching strays over here. I. You know what? I just want to talk about the people who still voted for Texas.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, let's go. Let's go.

[Tom Fernelli]

First of all, I. I think it's great we are influencing people so strongly that they're actually doing what we've been complaining about and getting Texas and Penn State out. And I think it's great that a media company is finally using its influence for good instead of stupid nonsense. But Kirk Kenny still has Texas 13th despite them being, you know, three and two. He has Notre Dame seventh. He's clearly a power raider. Like, if you go through his poll, I could see this being a. Like a power rating more than it is, like a ranking of resumes or anything. Penn State 16th. You know, just whatever, fine people are going to do it. I really disagree with it, and I just don't like it. But, you know, that's what he does. I will go to our. One of our friends, though, our old friend, who will not explain her process or anything. It's really not a big deal.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, man. Again?

[Bud Elliott]

Again.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah, but Haley has Texas 16th and she has Florida State 18th. I don't know how you can rank Texas ahead of Florida State if you're going to rank both, but where things get.

[Bud Elliott]

I think I can explain this.

[Tom Fernelli]

Okay, well, where things get even worse is she's got Penn State ranked 24th. So why is Texas 16th if Penn State's 24th? Because you're clearly ranking Penn State 24th because they haven't beaten anybody. And they lost in double overtime to a national title contender, and they lost as a 4 touchdown favorite on the road, whereas Texas has lost by a touchdown to a title contender, and they lost to a Florida team that was one and three. And we all know there is a huge difference between being one and three and oh, and four. So how is that an eight spot difference? Like, I don't, I don't have any idea how you put Florida State behind Texas if you're going to rank both. But the idea that Texas is eight spots ahead, again ahead of Penn State, when you clearly put thought into where you were putting Penn State, how does that same logic not apply to Texas?

[Bud Elliott]

Well, I think I, I have solved this mystery.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. You know, let's go Nancy Drew.

[Bud Elliott]

All right. You know, you have like the Bermuda Triangle where stuff just disappears, right? I think Haley has, like, a Gainesville triangle where just whatever happens inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium does not. Like, it just doesn't get broadcast to wherever she lives. Like, it's like, remember, like, let's go back two weeks ago, right? It was the USF Florida thing. Like, she, like, sometimes you just don't get certain channels in certain hotels on your tv.

[Tom Fernelli]

Right?

[Bud Elliott]

Maybe Haley just doesn't get any games that happen to Bennett Griffin. Like, that to me, makes the most sense here. If you plug that logic in, everything else holds.

[Tom Fernelli]

You know what? You're right.

[Chip Patterson]

I think you're right.

[Tom Fernelli]

I think Bud's right.

[Chip Patterson]

We've got to triangulate this. All right, we got it. We got to get some.

[Bud Elliott]

Maybe games and games will work. Camo. Like, she just can't see it.

[Chip Patterson]

I mentioned earlier there's a, you know, an interesting CBS Sports 136 angle to this. The new CBS Sports 136, our comprehensive ranking of all FBS teams, has posted on cbs sports.com There is a definitive top tier. It is, you know, not a very controversial. What it's. What it is is interesting. Ohio State held on to the top spot, the number one spot. Their average ballot ranking was 2.1. Miami jumped into the number two spot. Their average ballot ranking was two point two. Oregon is at number three, giving up a spot. Their average ballot ranking is 2.3. That means that across our voters, there's zero consensus about the order of these three teams, whether you have them, Ohio State, Oregon, Miami, or Miami. Oregon, Ohio State. Like all the different combinations that you can put out there, you've probably got them across these different ballots. Definitive gap between those top three and the rest of the top ten. But, man, that's. That is, I think, a fun spot to be in where you're not seeing as much, you know, group think we have a smaller body than the AP top 25 voters. But this is a real fun debate between those Three teams in terms of who's going to be the best team in the country.

[Danny Cannell]

Totally agree. I think you could make a real strong case for any one of them. I felt this going in like after the game, after watching what Miami did, after kind of seeing everything unfold, I was like, oh, these three have separated from the field. How big is the gap between the next ones and who do you think belongs in there? Because I think Alabama is probably right on the heels even with a loss to Florida State. But the way they're playing now, I think A and M is playing really good football. I'd be willing to have a conversation about them. And Texas Tech is quietly just humming along and they had a really impressive win against Houston. I think that's another team that I'd probably go, well, what's crazy is I Ole Miss, I just, I put them like at the bottom of that second tier. But some of those teams I think are closer to closing the gap too.

[Chip Patterson]

Texas Tech is the most interesting one because of the way that it projects where. I mean bud, what do we look at Double digit favorites in every game.

[Bud Elliott]

Or I'll be pretty close. I mean I don't know man. In the world of college football, right? No, not. They won't be double digits but, but they'll. They. They're like a touchdown probably than most.

[Chip Patterson]

Connolly's got him at 38% to win the Big 12 and no other power conference has a race with a heavy favorite like that at this point in the season.

[Bud Elliott]

Not Miami.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't think so.

[Bud Elliott]

I think Miami's a bigger favorite to win the ACC. The tech is doing the Big 12.

[Danny Cannell]

The right now Miami is by the Vegas odds.

[Bud Elliott]

I could be wrong.

[Danny Cannell]

Vegas odds has Miami minus 210 to win the ACC and Texas Tech minus 105.

[Tom Fernelli]

I don't think Connolly will because he's using SP plus and in his SP plus Texas Tech is number four whereas Miami's number 12. So like he would have Tech as a three and a half point favorite over Miami on a neutral.

[Bud Elliott]

I kind of think Miami's in some ways like taking their foot off the gas a little bit too early in the FSU and Irish games to be honest.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Like I.

[Chip Patterson]

They're the reverse of the number trickers. You got some coaches that run up the score in the fourth quarter. Goose the power ratings and Miami's like no, no.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, like you can give FSU credit for like not quitting, I guess but like that game wasn't close.

[Tom Fernelli]

Dude. Danny was so hyped about that.

[Bud Elliott]

I think they took their foot off the gas there. You know it.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

I was seeing visions of the choke at Dog Tom. We were coming all the way back. It's a good thing the new clock rolls are there.

[Bud Elliott]

We would have.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny before we, before we hit a break and, and keep this thing rolling. Any take us through. It's obviously tough game. I mean tough start to the game. Tough game. But you know the, the game itself and then of course just sort of like your, your, your favorite. We were able to, you know, give some time to the, the live show some things. Yeah, yeah. Highlights.

[Danny Cannell]

It was phenomenal.

[Bud Elliott]

It was great.

[Danny Cannell]

The was awesome. Appreciate everybody that came out to that one. The game itself was not so awesome, I will say because I'm torn. I totally understand when you're like Miami dominated, but we're also a lot of self inflicted wounds that Florida State brought on themselves which you cannot afford versus a team like that. That was my take. We have to play really good, cannot make those mistakes. If it's Florida State wants to come out with a win. The analytics stuff, I know what you're supposed to do. I know there's a card or there's a book and it tells you what to do. But when you're only down seven to three and you have a fourth and eight on the 41 yard line and you decide to go for it and I get. If you, if you throw an interception there and it's just downed, like it's probably the same as a punt. I just felt like that was such a huge momentum shift because you threw the interception. They get a big return and the next play, Carson Beck throws one play, touchdown pass and boom, it's 14 to three and it's like, what just happened? And I don't know, I, I was talking to a lot of the people on the sideline, a lot of coaches, you know, not on Florida State staff, but people associated were like, man, why did, why did we go for that? And it's easy to second guess and coach Norvell usually goes by the book and he did against Bama going forward on fourth down, he gets it. So everybody's saying that's a great call. I just felt like if you could have made Miami go for it and drive the length of the field, maybe it, maybe it works out a little bit differently. Maybe you're in that game and even still looking up the scoreboard, it's 14, three and a half. It felt like it was way bigger. And yet you're only one possession and then you had a Castellanos interception. They scored 21 3. I don't know. A couple things in the game, coaching wise. They went for the onside kick after the first score to make it 28 11. I thought that was really early to go for the onside. They don't get it. Miami has a short field, then they punt you back. And it took forever. That drive took forever. I don't know. There were some coaching things in there that I didn't love, but I don't know. It is and ever. And I get it. Like Miami. It did feel like they could have called their number, but they did call off the dogs. It's what they do. And I was. I was. I was glad of the way Florida State fought back and at least made it look respectable because I think that might matter at the end of the season.

[Bud Elliott]

Do you want. So 1. I love the call to go for it there. I. I think, like, you know, you're. What are you, 20, 25 to convert that, you know, and like, the. The field position value you're gaining by sticking them on average at like, let's say like the 12, right? Like, that's not a super easy punt to punt from the 41. It's not something you practice a whole lot. Like, the. The payoff is so worth there if you're trying to win the game. You know, if you're trying to just avoid, like. Like to play damage control and not get embarrassed, you punt the ball. But I. I do think Norvell coach to win there. Do you think Mario called the dogs off because he knows he kicks Mike Norvell's ass in recruiting and wants to keep until. Has he?

[Chip Patterson]

No, I don't. Because he was. He was furious. Like, how many times did the camera have him screaming at his players. Focus.

[Bud Elliott]

Focus.

[Chip Patterson]

Like, he could see the fact. He could see his team letting, like, keeping that door open instead of slamming it shut. He saw the opportunities in the game to. To twist the knife and the fact that Miami was screwing around. I. I think that he would have ra. He would have much rather run it up in Miami's own, like, execution.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, he would have liked to run it up.

[Bud Elliott]

That's not my theory, by the way. Like, it's a joke. Florida State fans who are frustrated to have. Because they. They know that Mario's like that staff just outworks FSU staff and recruiting.

[Danny Cannell]

Call me old school, bud. I would have taken the delay of game and put it back to fourth and 13. You're back from the 46 because I thought that's what they were going to do because they weren't ready to run a play. And then they called timeout and I was like, oh, they're gonna, they're gonna go draw up a play, aren't they? You know, but again, it's second guessing it.

[Bud Elliott]

It's an interesting play they ran to. If you watch it, like basically what they're doing is they're having Castellano's fake, like he's looking at the sideline and take the. No look snap. And you know, if he threw, he.

[Danny Cannell]

Had, if he would have put a tighter ball on him, he might.

[Chip Patterson]

It was open.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, yeah. He's just not, he's just not a good thrower of the football. Okay. Like, like if you're gonna throw the ball 25 plus times in Gus Malzahn's offense, you will lose games. It's not a good, it's not any kind of special passing scheme. It's very rudimentary. It's all off the run fake stuff. That's really kind of. What? No, no, Raymond in the chat, not outspend fsu. It's out work. I guarantee you like the quality of recruiter on the staff. Like the gap is big. I think Miami has a little bit more money fsu. I think they have a lot better recruiting skill in the coaching positions. I've said that for six years now. Like sales is a skill. You have good salespeople, you have bad salespeople. Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, coming up on the other side, we will take a look at the College Football playoff picture and go under the hood with a little pun for the review. Last chance to take a look at week six and more.

[Tom Fernelli]

This episode is brought to you by Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels and music are made for each other. They share a rhythm in the craft of making something timeless while being a part of legendary nights. From backyard jams to sold out arenas.

[Bud Elliott]

There'S a song in every toast.

[Tom Fernelli]

Please drink responsibly. Responsibility.org, jack Daniels and Old no. 7 are registered trademarks. Tennessee whiskey, 40% alcohol by volume. Jack Daniel Distillery, Lynchburg, Tennessee.

[Chip Patterson]

The holidays have arrived at the Home Depot and we're here to help bring the excitement with decorations for every part of your home. Check out our wide assortment of easy to assemble pre lit trees so you.

[Danny Cannell]

Can spend less time setting up and more time celebrating.

[Chip Patterson]

And bring your holiday spirit outdoors with unique decor like one of our Santa inflatables. Whatever your style, find the right pieces at the right prices. This holiday season at the Home Depot. And now it's time for the Brilliantly Boring Wins of the Week brought to you by PNC bank, where we highlight the boring actions that make the biggest difference. Slow and steady isn't just a saying. It's a proven strategy. Consistent, deliberate financial decisions help build a strong financial foundation and lead to the most meaningful wins. There's no need to chase risky ventures or fall for quick fixes at PNC Bank. They help you keep your money simple and stable so that you can live with the confidence that your future is on solid ground. And gentlemen, as I was looking back at week six, I was thinking about the meat and potatoes. I was thinking about what you can do to win football games and handle your business. I was thinking about playing great defense on third down and I was thinking about running the football successfully. And that's where the Texas A and M Aggies and the work that they did against Mississippi State on Saturday really stood out. It was Texas A&M 31. It was Mississippi State 9. But Mississippi State's offensive woes were in great part to the way that that Texas A and M defense was playing. They limited the explosive plays. They limited the third down success and it was Reuben Owens with the TR with a fantastic performance. 142 yards on the ground. You go and you get another 30 yards rushing from Marcel Reed. You go and you get some more rushing from Casey Concepcion and Le'Veon Moss. Like even not being able to make an impact in that game, you've just got that big stable of skill position players. Danny, from the defense to the ground game we talked about Texas A and M. Are those some of the reasons you're looking at the Aggies as a team that could really make some noise in the sec?

[Danny Cannell]

Yes. Mike Elkos taken over the defense. They look so much better. Depth of the skill position. You remember Owens coming off the bench. The the additions in the portal with wide receiver make them really dangerous. Marcel Reed backed it up, said he was going to be a better passer this year. He has been. You can make a really strong case. The Texas A M is the best team in the sec.

[Chip Patterson]

Those were the brilliantly boring Wins of the Week brought to you by PNC Bank. Brilliantly boring since 1865 Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Inc. PNC Bank National Association Member FDIC all right now one thing we're going to be adding to our plate now that we've gotten into October and we are less than a month away from really starting to get the official rankings releases from the College Football Playoff selection committee, it is going to be taking a look at the College Football Playoff picture. If you follow us on the socials, you've seen that Bud Elliott has been putting together his College Football Playoff projections each and every week and sharing that with you. But there's also no. Let's dive into the talking points here, Bud. As you look into your crystal ball, what's really stood out in terms of the CFP picture moving forward?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, so every week when I run my model, it kind of gives me something a little bit different. But this time I had six SEC teams making it and none of them getting a buy, which. Which kind of reflects, I think, what we're seeing. We're seeing a lot of good SEC teams. SEC is very clearly the deepest conference this year. It has like the best top half, but I don't think it has the best top. Right. You know, we're seeing Ohio State and Oregon look really, you know, really good so far this year. I think Tex Tech and Miami will go undefeated. And I really don't think if Oregon and Ohio State get to the Big Ten championship game undefeated that either of them will be punished for playing in that game by having them lose a buy. So I have the SEC champion not getting a buy in this, in this scenario, but I do have the SEC getting six teams in because I think the Big 12 and the ACC are and should be one bid leagues if those, you know, favorites hold serve.

[Chip Patterson]

You think there's some outrage there?

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Well, at least, at least based on what we've seen on social media. But like, I, I don't see how like a two loss band if they're the SEC champion, how, like how they would have a resume over, you know, a 12 and 1 loser of the.

[Chip Patterson]

Big Ten championship game unless they've got more wins against teams ranked in the committee's top 25, which you could reverse engineer with a bunch of sec teams between 15 and 25 that aren't going to make the playoff. Like we could see some seven and five teams inside that final top 25 to justify decisions made at the top.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't think you're gonna go 75. Yeah, I would buy 84. Like they might sneak an 8 and 4 in, but I don't think a 7 and 5 like an 8 and 4 Florida.

[Danny Cannell]

I think probably six SEC teams or five, six. There is zero chance six are getting in.

[Tom Fernelli]

I mean, it's not as impossible.

[Bud Elliott]

I think it's very difficult yeah, like have Michigan screw around and lose a game. It shouldn't and it's going to happen.

[Tom Fernelli]

Here's like one thing we didn't discuss. Like with Penn State losing this weekend, I, I still believe in Indiana, but there's the chance now that the Big Ten only gets two teams in. Like if Indiana, they get absolutely beaten down by Penn State because they do have to play Penn State and they lose to somebody else, I could see that happening. What I, what I'm not nearly as confident on though is the SEC not getting one of the box. Like in my project, in my, in my five check this week guide, Alabama is the 3 seed because I just feel like if they do go 11 and 2 and they win the SEC and there are five SEC teams in the field or maybe six they have played Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma. Odds are those teams would be in the field and odds are Alabama would have beaten them. They've already beaten Georgia and Vanderbilt. So I just feel like with the way that they've rejiggered it and we don't know how it's going to look yet because we haven't seen their ranking yet. So this new SOS metric that they're putting in, which the SEC was, you know, clamoring for because they always have the higher sos, like I, I feel like that would probably earn the SEC champion if they go 11 and 2 a buy no matter what. Even if the Big 12 champions undefeated, or even if the ACC champion's undefeated, or if Oregon or Ohio State are sitting there at 11 and they're 12 and one because they lost the Big Ten title game. I just, the way that this committee has worked, I just have a difficult time not seeing them give the SEC a buy even if. Okay, more seed.

[Bud Elliott]

Totally agree. As far as how it gets rigged, I have a hard time building that in the model. But who do you see them leaving out of those four? So undefeated Miami, undefeated Tech, undefeated Big.

[Tom Fernelli]

Ten champion, undefeated Tech. I mean look what they did to the Big 12 last year.

[Bud Elliott]

They would, they would hump a two loss SEC team over a 12, 0. Big 12 team.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah. Iowa State, or I'm sorry, Arizona State, the Big 12 champion last year was ranked behind three loss Alabama.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, but they had how many losses they had?

[Tom Fernelli]

2.

[Bud Elliott]

Right, right.

[Tom Fernelli]

If Texas Tech goes undefeated, what's its best win?

[Bud Elliott]

Probably smashing Utah. Utah.

[Tom Fernelli]

But is Utah ranked?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I think Utah will easily be ranked.

[Tom Fernelli]

Okay. But I'm just saying if you compare.

[Chip Patterson]

Them like Cincinnati, they would treat them like 20, 22 Cincinnati like there's a.

[Tom Fernelli]

Very good chance.

[Bud Elliott]

That was, that was power league versus a non power league, right?

[Tom Fernelli]

I. Yeah, but this, we don't know how their, this SOS metric is going to work and I'm guessing that the Big 12 is going to be on the lower end of it.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, it definitely will. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Tom Fernelli]

So I, I don't know.

[Chip Patterson]

Has the model started to look at who Miami might be playing in Charlotte?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, there's a lot of Georgia Tech and UVA there.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Just because the path is so easy.

[Chip Patterson]

And maybe Duke too.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah, I was gonna say Duke. Man, they finally were able to get away from those tough non conference games against Illinois. Tulane, get into that nice, soft, cushy ACC schedule, start looking like a juggernaut again.

[Bud Elliott]

A lot of Miami fans think that Miami is going to have an argument to be number one, and I don't think that's going to be the case. I don't think they have the wins down the stretch to carry that for the committee. And whoever they play in Charlotte is not going to be anywhere near as good as the team that the Big Ten team is going to play in Indy.

[Chip Patterson]

Miami does not need to cry right now about seeding. They need to win games after October 31st because Mario Cristobal from November on at Miami is 4 and 10. And I know you're going to tell me that, hey, one of those was a five and seven year. One of those was a seven and five year. But I'm just saying that 1 and 3, 1 and 4, 2 and 3 as your records from November 1st on over the first three years, finishing strong is the number one opponent for Miami right now.

[Tom Fernelli]

But you know why Mario's record is so bad in November, right? Oh, where does he go on Halloween? An escape room. Going back like we talked about, the Big Ten maybe only getting two teams and I still think they get three. I think Indiana is going to get through enough to where they're going to be the third. But I'd like to know where you guys are in this. Who's your fourth team in the Big Ten right now after Penn State loses to ucla?

[Chip Patterson]

Talk to me after usc. Michigan.

[Bud Elliott]

Michigan.

[Chip Patterson]

Winner of us, Winner of usc. Michigan. I'll come out of that feeling like they are up in the mix.

[Bud Elliott]

I think Michigan's odds are like more than double of USCs to make the playoffs.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah, I'm with you. And I'll have more on it in upon further review.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, that's a professional tease if I've ever heard one.

[Danny Cannell]

I might still back USC.

[Chip Patterson]

But yeah might be easier you USC's. USC was off last week, they're home against Michigan, they're at Notre Dame and they're off again. So it's like by the time we get through this next three week run we'll know, you know that's season's on the line right here. So it's a, it's a big time for the Trojans for sure. Well, one last thing bud. Here any. If you were to look at that week seven schedule, just sort of the. From a college football playoff perspective, where are the the gotta have it games? Which ones are the ones that you think hold the most CFP impact?

[Bud Elliott]

Bama. Missouri is, is a big one. If Missouri gets that one, I think you got to be. You got to really start penciling in Missouri to the playoff or at least really thinking about them locked in the.

[Chip Patterson]

Playoff before you play a road game. What a life.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Dude, seriously, I think it's somewhat important that Indiana does not get dump trucked by Oregon here. Like you know, I know they're a 10 point dog. If they lose by 17, you know, whatever it's at Eugene. But if they get crushed, which is possible then I, that that's, that's probably trouble. Where else here.

[Danny Cannell]

You know, Kansas might.

[Bud Elliott]

Be a little tricky for Texas Tech. Like Kansas has been playing some decent ball. They, they survived a weird, you know, weird spot at UCF over the weekend. Georgia's like a very short favorite at Auburn. If Georgia loses at Auburn, Georgia's not gonna go to the playoff.

[Danny Cannell]

That was going to be my upon further review until you put six SEC teams into the playoff, I'm like wa.

[Bud Elliott]

I can get seven in I that the Georgia.

[Danny Cannell]

I watched a lot of the Georgia game. This is not your same Georgia gunner Stockton is becoming more of a liability. They don't have the defensive studs we've talked about before like the Jordan Davis, the Jalen Carter, sort of those guys in the mid the interior. I think the rest of the SEC has caught up with them and several teams have passed them and if you look at their schedule, I think there's a likelihood they're 9 and 3. And if they lose this weekend, which I don't think is crazy to say, they'll be 8 and 4 with Carson Beck, your old quarterback in the country.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, 9 and 3. I think they're going to get in because they're going to play a likely what, one loss short detect team.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, I mean I'm sorry you think.

[Bud Elliott]

They'Re going to beat them yeah, they're.

[Chip Patterson]

Worse than they were last year. You know, they, they went to a billion overtimes with them last year.

[Bud Elliott]

That's fair.

[Chip Patterson]

Doesn't Georgia have some nightmares in that building? I know I was in there for one Nightmare. It's called 2nd and 26.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, but it's only against, it's only against Alabama. They kill everybody else in the Dome, Right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, that's true.

[Bud Elliott]

Somebody who works in. I don't know if he wants me to idm. He works in the sport. He's like, hey, are we underestimating how much the, the rule against like the, the late line shifts are impacting Georgia's pass rush? Because like Damon Wilson at Missouri, at least I haven't checked it today, but like entering the weekend had more pressures than Georgia's entire D line combined. Like it was. Was Georgia scheming up pressures like the last two years with some of that kind of, you know, I know a lot of coaches thought it was kind of gamifying the thing and that's why they put the rule in to stop it because they were trying to basically induce false starts and, and protection bus which lower scoring. And we already had scoring lowered with the new clock rule. So I think the league smartly said, ah, that's not really, that's not good for the entertainment product just to try to induce a bunch of false stars. Right. But is that hurting Georgia more than we. Than we realized?

[Tom Fernelli]

Maybe. I haven't really thought about it.

[Bud Elliott]

I hadn't either. I just like that. That's a pretty good point. Like their pass rush has dropped off a cliff.

[Chip Patterson]

I'm not going to use that as my first, second or third reason of what's wrong with Georgia. But it is certain wrong guys to hold on to for sure in a game that is decided on the margins, especially at that level. It is a, it's definitely a very interesting point to bring up. Yeah. Arizona State at Utah obviously is big for the Big 12 race from a College Football playoff perspective and from a seating perspective for the Big 12 champion, that's going to be another one to keep an eye on. Little late night action out in Salt Lake City in front of my favorite student section in America.

[Tom Fernelli]

Did you mention South Florida at North Texas? That's a huge game.

[Chip Patterson]

Huge game. All right, coming up on the other side, we go under the hood. One last chance to look back at week six before turning our attention forward. And more next.

[Bud Elliott]

What's up, everyone?

[Chip Patterson]

It's the counselor of Cash seeing a job from the early edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop.

[Bud Elliott]

We're locked in every day with NFL.

[Chip Patterson]

Bets and player props, college football picks and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.

[Tom Fernelli]

Subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page to.

[Bud Elliott]

Watch us live at 10am Eastern Time every weekday.

[Tom Fernelli]

Make sure to turn on those notifications.

[Chip Patterson]

So you don't miss a single pick all season long.

[Tom Fernelli]

Good luck. When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans, send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom's 60th and never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone.

[Chip Patterson]

Learn more at WhatsApp.com back here on the COVID 3 podcast Mondays one last chance to empty the notebook from the week that was before. We spin it forward. It is on further review. There were terrible calls. Do we want to go ahead and jump in after further review after further.

[Tom Fernelli]

Review to further review.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Tom, you said, you mentioned that you had something that was burning on burning on your chest. What's what are we thinking it's a rash?

[Tom Fernelli]

No, it'll be fine. It'll go away. I went back, I rewatched Michigan Wisconsin because it was going on in other stuff but and based on what I'd seen sparingly when we were watching it live, I was like this team looks much better in the second half. And re watching it. I I feel like Bryce Underwood played his best game as a Michigan Wolverine against Wisconsin. I thought that he was just very sharp with everything he was doing. There were very few mistakes. I think he took a sack that I feel like he probably should have avoided. He's waiting too long. But other than that, I mean Michigan's bigger problem in that game was they just didn't finish their drives in the red zone. They missed a field goal. They went for it on a fourth down and got stopped. I mean it was in reality it was more of a 34 to 10 game than it was a 24 to 10 game. Which makes it look a little, you know, different. Like the ten point swing there. And like we were discussing there in the playoff projection with Penn State losing, I really think that kind of Michigan is the fourth best team in the conference with the way it started to play these last few weeks. Like the Oklahoma loss was obviously, you know, not great for them. They didn't look good in that game at all. But since then, I feel like that Nebraska win looks better. As Nebraska continues to win the Wisconsin game. The final score was a bit misleading. I just think that this is a team that defensively is really starting to figure things out. And I think Bryce Underwood's getting better and better every single week. And if that continues to be the trend, this is going to be a very scary team come November.

[Chip Patterson]

Do you. You texted me in the first half that you thought it. They were looking a little ordinary.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

So it's the, the progression across the game. Feeling good about it?

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah. I mean, I upon re watch they did not look nearly as ordinary again.

[Chip Patterson]

It was like a third.

[Tom Fernelli]

It was like a third screen and it was like every time I was looking at it in the. When it was going on live, I was just like. I mean they were a little more conservative. They opened it up a bit more, I guess is one way to put it. But I just feel like re watching it with fresh eyes and not paying attention to anything else. They looked a lot better than I thought they did on Saturday.

[Chip Patterson]

See, that's a great use of a pun. Further review. You're multi screening in the early slate. Got a lot going on. Trying to jump on. Yeah, yeah, we're just a little bit tired from a little tired Tallahassee get some fresh eyes. Be able to dive into it. I like that a lot.

[Bud Elliott]

At some point I do need their like, I need their theoretical to become actual, you know, and like actually like have it click and, and put the points up. Like I, you know, I, I get what you're saying. I think Bryce is really, really good. The receivers are just wildly inconsistent.

[Chip Patterson]

Real quick because I think I might make this a. Not necessary. I don't want to make this a giant piece, but just a fun game to play at this time of year before we really get into conference games and things start to balance out just a little bit. It's a little game. It's a little game called good team or good record. What have I identified? It's not like an obvious one. These aren't undefeated teams, but these are teams that sometimes we aren't discussing them right off the top. And Tom, you just mentioned one of them. So I want to ask you all The Nebraska Cornhuskers 4 and 1. Good team or good record?

[Tom Fernelli]

I'm leaning good record.

[Danny Cannell]

Is it okay to say Decent team.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah, that's not. No, that's not an option. It's good team or good record. Look at this guy. He invents a game called good team or good record in 30 seconds, and he's like, yeah, we'll change the rules.

[Chip Patterson]

God. Well, because you answer, you essentially, you mean good record. If you say I would lean towards.

[Danny Cannell]

I would lean towards both. I think they're a good team. I don't think they're a great team. I don't think they're a playoff team. I think they're a good team.

[Chip Patterson]

But.

[Bud Elliott]

I was just texting this guy that he said, CBS is nothing. College football. And I was like, oh, well, bro, they don't ask how. They ask how many. So I'll send them an updated photo of the Apple charts. Which team? Sorry, it's bad podcasting, but good social.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, so what was the answer?

[Tom Fernelli]

No.

[Bud Elliott]

What team?

[Chip Patterson]

Nebraska.

[Danny Cannell]

Nebraska.

[Bud Elliott]

I think they're a decent team.

[Danny Cannell]

You're not allowed to say decent.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, like.

[Bud Elliott]

Like, Nebraska is clearly, like, not one of the 20 best teams in college football, but I think they're very much in that, like, next 10 to 12 range. Like, they're clearly top half of the power four.

[Chip Patterson]

They are four and one. Is it. Are they more good team or good record?

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, more good record.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Okay. All right, next one. The tc.

[Tom Fernelli]

I want to read off a stat.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, go ahead.

[Tom Fernelli]

I texted it to you guys yesterday, and I tweeted part of it. Lowest air yards per attempt by quarterbacks in wins.

[Bud Elliott]

Again, this is amazing.

[Tom Fernelli]

Now, this happened. It was really windy in this game, okay? But Dylan Raiola had 3.1 air yards per attempt in the win against Michigan State. That's the lowest by any quarterback in a win. And what's funny is, Dylan Raiola was at 4.1 air yards per attempt in the win against Cincinnati. So that is two of the 10 lowest against FBS teams by any quarterback in a win this year. So I just want to say, Nebraska fans, I see a whole lot of his completion percentage stats about how he's at, like, 75%. Let's add some context to that. He's throwing bubble screens, folks.

[Chip Patterson]

Did it. Did Nebraska. Have they not seen the fruits of this incredible offensive change? Not.

[Danny Cannell]

I think they have.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, hold on. Let's keep the game going. Tcu. Tcu. Horn frogs. They are four in one. Tcu. Good team or good record?

[Tom Fernelli]

Both.

[Chip Patterson]

I'd probably lean good team then, for the purposes of this game.

[Bud Elliott]

Like, I think TCU is better than Nebraska, but, like, not by much. So.

[Tom Fernelli]

Tom, good record. I mean they're 4 and 1. Their wins have been North Carolina, who is atrocious, Abilene Christian, SMU and Colorado. Their loss was to Arizona State. So they've played one actual quality football team. I mean, I guess SMU counts, but they've played one good like top 25ish caliber team and they lost. It was on the road and they only lost by three. So I still think it's good record if they keep winning and they stack up more against some better teams. And I will say good team. I mean, I love Josh Hoover. I don't know if it's a good team yet though.

[Bud Elliott]

They did kind of kill SMU for like, for most of that game.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

At least like that. That counts for something for me.

[Chip Patterson]

I think. Good team.

[Danny Cannell]

Good team.

[Chip Patterson]

Good team. I would expect them to, you know, like five games into the season, they're four and one to somewhat maintain that kind of clip and wind up at the end of the year, you know, sitting around a 9 and 3 type season. That sounds right. I don't think that's. That's different. Okay, last one. Good team. Good record. The Tennessee volunteers are 4 and 1. Good team or good record?

[Bud Elliott]

I think good team. I mean they like. They're pretty clearly one of like the 15 or 20 best in the country. Right. I don't know how.

[Tom Fernelli]

You don't say that.

[Chip Patterson]

Clearly are really.

[Danny Cannell]

I think all these teams are in a very similar tier. You need to see a little bit more to make them earn.

[Bud Elliott]

I think Tennessee's got a lot better players than everybody we've discussed.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, I listen one of the Texas has got a lot of good players too.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. But the Tennessee is actually winning games.

[Tom Fernelli]

I'm going to say good team because I would argue that that loss to Georgia should have been a win. I think they outplayed Georgia for most of that game. They ended up losing by three. We'll say though I understand a good record declaration because they have lost to Georgia and their best win is Mississippi State in overtime. In overtime.

[Bud Elliott]

Tennessee is what, like definitely a field goal over most over all the teams we discussed.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah, they'd be favored against every team we've talked in this segment.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, but you wouldn't take any of these teams we discussed plus three points against them, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. I mean plus seven.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't know if TCU in Nebraska would have a chance to block Tennessee.

[Tom Fernelli]

I don't think Nebraska would. I would take TCU plus 7 on a neutral.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, Danny.

[Chip Patterson]

Good Team Good record. Tennessee at 4 and 1.

[Danny Cannell]

Good record.

[Bud Elliott]

Are we not going to do BYU?

[Tom Fernelli]

We already know your answer on that.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, the, the full transparency here, the common thread where grabbing teams that we also just didn't spend a lot of time discussing. Right. I mean, you know, there's a. There are a lot of other 4 and 1 and 5 and 1 teams that we just hadn't. It just felt like they were floating below the radar. And I was like, okay, let's, let's. Let's give them a little microscope. Good team. Good record. That has been this edition of Good team, Good record. We'll bring it back next week and, and maybe one more time before things start to really even out, because the month of October is. Is very much like the fire. It can. It can expose all the flaws and burn out all the impurities. All right, let's see. Tom, did you want a line I minute or upon further review. Yeah, okay, let's go.

[Danny Cannell]

This is upon further review of our bold prediction segment, which I usually ham it up a little bit just to give us some clicks and to go a little bit stronger than some of you weaklings in here. Take them real safe on your bold predictions. And there was a clip about the Miami Hurricanes not going bowling.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, dear.

[Danny Cannell]

Has since gone viral from a lot of Miami Hurricane fans that are out there. So I just want to make sure that we know what happened in that one. That was like, all right, make your worst case scenario. So, like, sure, I'll do it. Sign me up for that one. And then I get this little dweeb after the game on the field, like, as I'm walking out there with my two daughters, we go out there and we're like, shaking hands and we're at the midfield. I was looking for Castellanos and a couple of Florida State guys. Tell them, hey, man, keep your head up. And this little guy's. I don't know, he's probably like assistant tight ends coach or he's like a quality control guy or maybe even it's an athletic trainer. And he comes up to me, he goes, I guess we're gonna make a bowl, huh?

[Bud Elliott]

Like that.

[Danny Cannell]

I wanted to punch him in the face. But just so we're clear, I thought Miami was a really good football team, and now I think they're one of the best teams in the country. You have to take it with a grain of salt, we do our bold predictions where you're willing to go out there on a limb a little bit.

[Tom Fernelli]

I will. I will point out in Our ACC win totals. One member of this show took the over on Miami.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, you did.

[Tom Fernelli]

One member had the foresight, the understanding of ball to know what was coming.

[Bud Elliott]

Did you guys look at your windows?

[Tom Fernelli]

No.

[Bud Elliott]

I think. I think I have the worst one I had UNC over seven and a half because of schedule.

[Tom Fernelli]

Hey, there's still time. They can get there, right? They've only lost four games, right. If they win out, I mean, I'm.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm very happy with the vast majority of these. I think I'm gonna go like 11 and 5. But, like, that one's bad. Really bad.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yes. Say what you're thinking. Say how you feel, brother.

[Chip Patterson]

It's. It's not good, you know?

[Bud Elliott]

Can you do a dramatic reading of the letter?

[Chip Patterson]

Do it.

[Bud Elliott]

Sure.

[Chip Patterson]

Do you have the letter pulled up right now?

[Bud Elliott]

Yes. Would you like me to drop it in the private chat?

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, it's just, we. Listen, we don't need to summarize it right now. Tone deaf.

[Bud Elliott]

Scroll down. I just want to hear you hit the. Growing up in Philadelphia.

[Chip Patterson]

I'll do it.

[Tom Fernelli]

I don't want Chip getting in trouble for speaking like an Italian when you know he can get canceled for that. Growing up near Philadelphia, I resisted the urge to become a Phillies or Eagles fan. At the time, neither team was good, so my hometown bias wasn't tested. As I roamed around the north street playground, the other team, the one named after The Revolution, the 76ers, somehow captured my heart. Since my 11th birthday, this juvenile mistake has ruined my NBA watching for the better part of 55 years, minus the time my favorite coach and North Carolina alumni Larry Brown, was in charge. However, through pain and disappointment can often come knowledge, as being a fan of the team gave me a valuable team building lesson when new general manager Sam Hinkey introduced his trust the process, hey philosophy. In 2013, I was reluctant to embrace his formula of losing badly to win eventually. I hated it then, hate it now. Not competing to win games against every part of my sports executive philosophy, I felt Hinky's method to rebuild the team was wrong. However, his messaging to the fans was brilliant. From his introductory press conference, everyone except me jumped on board. Hinky's messaging made every fan feel part of the rebuild, which allowed them to feel a sense of belonging. He was simply exercising the second rule of leadership. Man, how long is this freaking letter? My God. Okay, I'm not reading the rest of this. Two. What the.

[Bud Elliott]

No.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, hold on. So this is the deal. This is the thing that is the most important okay, how long is this? This letter which is a tank.

[Danny Cannell]

Are they tanking? What's happening?

[Chip Patterson]

Said we are going to suck. It's okay, we're building for the future. Was sent before the Clemson game. Okay. This was like, don't worry guys, it's going to be fine. And then do you know what was the very first play coming out of an off week at Clemson on national television? A procedural penalty. You had two weeks to prepare for the Clemson Tigers to come to your game. A game where you booked ludicrous as your pregame concert. And the very first play from scrimmage was a procedural penalty. I listen, Tom, I was over at my parents house last night. They were at the game. Oh God. They were like, yeah, we were in the sun and looking at the sun was better than looking at the field. But my dad said on defense I felt bad for the players because they were talking to each other. They didn't know what was going to happen. The players with two weeks to prepare for the Clemson Tigers were out there lost with no idea of what was going to happen. That is how Dabo dialed up a 75 yard wide receiver pass touchdown for play number one. And the whole first half it was just right down their throat. It is a sad, sad state of affairs and it is, as I said on Saturday night, embarrassing because they're going to continue to get these big stages because of big old big brain Bill Bellich and the whole world is going to see empty fans because you can send this letter to all your boosters and all your season ticket holders and maybe the big money donors are still all the way in and they are going to buy trust the process. But you know what a lot of the fans and a lot of the students are going to do? They are checking out and they are walking down to South Campus. They are walking right out and they are going down to the Dean E. Smith center because even though the basketball team is not projected to be better than Duke, they're at least supposed to be up in the mix.

[Bud Elliott]

Golly, this pisses me off too because like, you know, crap in the bed and still pulling huge ratings. That's our game, bro. Like you're kind of take like stop stepping on our turf, right? We're the time slot champs that this is. I mean trust you're taking money out of me and Danny's pockets.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean he's the, the talking point that's supposed to keep you invested is we're going to sign 40 freshmen, give us four years.

[Tom Fernelli]

We're gonna get some great draft picks out of this. The draft position is going to be phenomenal. Nobody's told them yet they're tanking for draft picks.

[Bud Elliott]

I look, I'm super skeptical of Lombardi, right? Like that. It's wild that, that that's the guy running this. But I do think they made some like later in the cycle after that. I think they realized they screwed up some of the portal process pretty bad. They did make some guys who had actually done this in college before and they hired him and like that could in theory allow them to be better this coming cycle. Like he's 73 years old and we're making this one, the one we're going.

[Tom Fernelli]

To sign the long term project. But he's only 73. He's got at least 10, 15 years in him.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean it's just like the, your simple rating system, your SRS at College Football Reference. It's one of the worst teams in program history. Like you go through in the modern era. You're like offensive and defensive EPA per snap and per game. It ranks as among the worst Power 5 Conference football performances that we've had since we began taking that as a statistic. I mean the whole sleeping giant thing was about North Carolina teams that just couldn't escape the 6 and 6 and 7 and 5. And what happened when you were just. I was, I was running through all my like all my spreadsheets yesterday and I was looking fondly on that 45th spot, bud. You know, like when I was just so used to seeing North Carolina as the 45th best team in the country. It used to be so easy and fine. You're just like, yeah, us in Arizona, you know, just, just sitting there with some like minded. I mean, Wake Forest hired Jake Dickert and Wake Forest looks more competent. Purdue and Barry Odom look way more competent. They got 70 new players too.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yeah, but at least you're winning off the field by refusing to congratulate Drake May.

[Chip Patterson]

I. I don't, I. That is.

[Tom Fernelli]

North Carolina, Bill Belichick. I don't know if you've seen the reports. He's the staff and those guys are not allowing them to tweet anything positive about the New England Patriots. So when Drake May goes and beats Josh Allen on Sunday Night Football, North Carolina is not allowed to tweet anything about it because that's how you're going to recruit those freshmen, by not telling them about your former quarterback who's now winning games in the NFL.

[Bud Elliott]

If you really wanted to do ratings, they would just put a gopro on Bubba and like, have him, like, all the interactions with the guys who went over his head because he was going to make a competent football hire, whether it was Matt Campbell or John Summerall or like somebody with a proven track record of knowing what the hell they're doing. And I mean that. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

For the purposes of context, I did.

[Bud Elliott]

Not think it'd be this bad, by the way. Like, I'm not trying to be like, hey, I told you guys this was gonna be a disaster. I didn't think it'd be this bad. But like, oof.

[Chip Patterson]

North Carolina did end up tweeting a Drake May after our own Ross Martin was among those who was early on with the report about the. The silence. They also got the word out to those who they could that they. They sent a care package to Drake May recently, and they did less than a month ago tweet a Drake May highlight.

[Tom Fernelli]

But did they send him rice and water?

[Bud Elliott]

What do you mean? They sent him a care package?

[Chip Patterson]

You know, like the North. A box like, you know, like grooms getting from everybody.

[Tom Fernelli]

A box they're airlifting and air dropping like little packages for Drake May. Please don't starve in Foxborough, buddy.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Did you see who. Who beat the Carolina account to post a congratulatory text?

[Chip Patterson]

Mac Brown.

[Danny Cannell]

Mac Brown.

[Chip Patterson]

He saw that.

[Bud Elliott]

Right away.

[Chip Patterson]

I miss that, you know, politician Mac Brown. Mac Brown would lose as a double digit favorite to Virginia or Georgia Tech. But wasn't like this.

[Bud Elliott]

Golly.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. You asked what else? What? What else? We want to hit for a pun for the review before we get out of here.

[Tom Fernelli]

I was gonna do my line. I made it, but I don't know if I want to follow that up.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's keep it home or corner.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. All right.

[Tom Fernelli]

All right. I gotta get Mike Lombardi out of my brain with this 1400 word statement about how we're sucking on purpose.

[Bud Elliott]

It's a big thing.

[Danny Cannell]

Did you work count it?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fernelli]

1385 words.

[Bud Elliott]

Ridiculous.

[Chip Patterson]

We don't read like that.

[Bud Elliott]

There.

[Tom Fernelli]

They don't write essays that long in North Carolina's like, literature classes. All right, so anyways, Illinois, There have been 210 games between Power Four teams this year. Illinois has had two of the top 10 most explosive passing attacks of the season in those games, and they have been. Their last two games, they were at 36.4% against Purdue, which is tied for second in the season with Notre Dame against Arkansas, and 29.6% against USC the week before. And I bring this up because we are supposed to be a Luke Altmire podcast. But fellas, we have abandoned our responsibilities this year because Luke Altmire is fifth in the nation in passing efficiency. He's second in yards per attempt, he's seventh in yards per drop back. And he is yet to turn the ball over a single damn time this season. Yet if you look at the Heisman odds, he is 121 behind scrubs like Drew Aller, Arch Manning and Garrett Nussmeier. He has the same odds as Tommy Castellanos and Jalen Daniels. A guy for a top 25 team, a contender for the playoff, who's one of the top five quarterbacks in the country so far this statistically and one of the guys he's throwing to Hank Beatty, 764 all purpose yards, fifth in the nation. The man has caught two touchdowns, he has rushed for a touchdown, he has thrown for a touchdown, and he has returned a punt for a touchdown. When they send out your midseason all America ballot in the next few weeks, and I know all these outlets are if Hank Beatty is not your all purpose first team player right now, you do not know ball. You have never even seen a ball. And if I put a ball in front of your face, you'd be like, what is that? I have never seen one of those before. Hank Beatty's balling out. Luke Altmire's balling out. And it's about damn time we start talking about them for national awards. Thank you. I see the floor.

[Chip Patterson]

Listen, I, I, I will have you know that when I'm on HQ Spotlight, looking ahead to Ohio State Illinois later today. And of course you know, we submit our storylines impact player to watch. We all know how the sausage is made here. This Illinois offense puts it all on Luke Altmire. Like whether it's from our run run pass success rates, whether it's from our run pass splits, they are asking Luke to do the dirty work and he is damn answering. So we will have shine for for the Luke Altmire podcast. Thank you so much for bringing this to our attention. You've done good service today. Anything else for for upon further review.

[Bud Elliott]

So did you guys see how Arkansas State beat Texas State?

[Chip Patterson]

I sure did.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. All right, so first and 10 or so. All right, tie ball game 24, 24. Texas State drives down. They get first and goal at the Arkansas State 3. Arkansas State has two timeouts left. Okay, there's a minute one left in the ball game. So given that there are two timeouts right, you can basically drain this clock down right, play takes five seconds, take it down to 55. Timeout. Play takes five seconds, take down to 50. Timeout. Take a knee, run it like you're looking at like 20 seconds left, right on the clock and you, you try to kick the game winning field goal. Instead, Arkansas State correctly and smartly lets Texas State score. Texas does not go down. Instead they decide to take the touchdown. Problem here is they did it immediately and they missed the extra point. So they are only up 6. Which means that in a game with neither side has a decent defense at all, Arkansas State has a pretty decent college quarterback, Jalen Rayner and a minute one and two timeouts to work with. And they actually don't need any of the timeouts on the drive right until like, until the final play. They go down to a score, kick, extra point and win the ball game upsetting Texas State. I know it's kind of like a weird feeling to take the knees there, but I, I mean you're, how often are you making those field goals clearly. And I, I get the irony that the kid missed an extra point distance kick. So you know it's not 100 but from the three, that's a high 90s kick in college.

[Tom Fernelli]

Do I do it? Chip?

[Chip Patterson]

Let's list off G.J. kinney's.

[Tom Fernelli]

Do I read the list?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, read the list. This, this G.J. kenny who everyone's trying to hire to, to all the power of conference jobs. Let's, let's hear his, his career wins as a head coach at the FPS level.

[Tom Fernelli]

Yes. Every time there is an opening like Arkansas or anybody anywhere in that vicinity, the Texas football mafia starts pushing GJ Kenny. And I'm not trying to disrespect gj. I don't think he's a bad coach, but they start pushing him for all these jobs. This is a list of the teams that GJ Kenny has beaten while he was the head coach at Texas State. Baylor the year Baylor finished 3 and 9.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh yeah.

[Tom Fernelli]

Jackson State, Nevada Southern Miss twice, ULM twice, South, Alabama twice, Georgia Southern, Rice, Lamar, UTSA twice. I'll give them credit for that's some decent wins. Troy, Arkansas State only once though. Eastern Michigan and Nichols. He is now 98 against Sunbelt Competition. Why are we constantly pushing this guy for like these bigger jobs right now?

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, a couple things. One, it is Texas State. Like that's certainly not an easy program to win at. I think he has done a pretty good job there. He could definitely use like a game management dude on the sideline like Mario hired, that would be a good investment. And I think if you hired Kenny as a P4 program, you have to insist upon that as the AD. Like hey dude, you like to go fast, like call plays. You're actually really good oc. I think you've done a really nice job with personnel. You know, like the, the right tackle for, for Oregon came from there. Like they're good at identifying guys. There's a lot of good there. I think when you view it through the lens of this is freaking Texas State. But yeah, like you need, I, you.

[Tom Fernelli]

Need to beat the competition. You're playing like you can't be 500 against Sunbelt teams and convince me that you are a value add.

[Bud Elliott]

No, I agree with that. Yeah. I mean it's not like Troy has tremendous advantages and summer all ran that league for two years before he got the two lane job.

[Tom Fernelli]

Exactly.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, yeah, that's fair. But the Texas media loves to latch on to whatever anybody from the flavor of the month is in G5. Right. Like they have their own magazine, you know and I think Dave Campbell's is cool but like you know, if you have a whiff of success, you're going to start getting mentioned for any job in that region.

[Tom Fernelli]

Everything's bigger in Texas including the hype.

[Bud Elliott]

And the Blooms kind of off the rose a little bit for Jeff Traylor. If you look at his record without, without the quarterback Frank Harris, it's nothing special. So again that's not an easy job to win. It's not like man, everybody wins at utsa. I think the guy's probably a good football coach but it does get hyped up a lot from the Texas based media.

[Tom Fernelli]

Ethelandry in the chat, Danny's currently looking up who that quality control for Miami.

[Chip Patterson]

Was standing through to see his headshots.

[Danny Cannell]

I like the one where he saves day trading real stocks.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Hey. All right, last call, last call. We ran long. That's okay. I think so. Okay, we gotta get, gotta get Danny off to CBS Sports hq. Okay. We'll be back Tuesday noon eastern time CBS Sports Network as we get you set for a loaded week awesome week of Big ten football. Then we will be back on Wednesday where we will be doing big game breakdown which will include a look at some of those games that we've got coming up including can Texas get off the mat as they've got Red river on deck. Alabama, Missouri and some other non big 10 action. Then of course Thursday for locks 11am eastern time so you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fenell you can follow him at elliot3. You can follow him at Danny Cannell. Follow me at Chippatterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Your fantasy season doesn't end after your draft.

[Danny Cannell]

The Fantasy Football Today podcast is going.

[Chip Patterson]

To get you through the season and to a championship.

[Danny Cannell]

Fantasy Football Today, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network, has episodes every single, single day. Waiver, wire, trade talk, starter sit, mailbags, and more.

[Chip Patterson]

If you want to win your league.

[Danny Cannell]

You need to listen to Fantasy Football Today. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and anywhere podcasts are found.