← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
USC-Oregon Preview | Bowl Or No Bowl | Franklin To Virginia Tech | CFP Storylines To Watch | CBSSN
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- [00:00]
A
This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about in depth analysis on college football are boring sometimes, sure. But doing the research and understanding every game gives you the knowledge that you need to make small talk with any sports fan anywhere. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is it's what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life. PNC Bank Brilliantly boring since 1865 Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank National Association Member FDIC. And welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live on CBS Sports Network. Fired up to talk a little college football with you over the course of the next hour where we will take a look inside one of the biggest games of the entire Big Ten season. That's right, the showdown between Oregon and usc, a game that you can watch on CBS and stream on Paramount. Plus that is going to be center stage. We're going to take you inside the matchup, big game breakdown, style, keys to the game X factors and so much more. We are also going to be reacting to the news from the coaching carousel. James Franklin, former Penn State head coach, will be introduced as the next head coach of Virginia Tech on Wednesday. We will also play a little bit of everyone's favorite game, bowl or no bowl. No anxiety whatsoever for teams that are still not bowl eligible going into the final two weeks of the regular. But we're going to start with the present. We're going to start with Tuesday night as we will get the next batch of College Football Playoff selection committee rankings, the rankings that will set the stage for the final weeks of the College Football Playoff race. So as we start, Tom, to to look ahead to tonight and of course, you know, join us live on YouTube.com cover3 where we will be reacting to these rankings live. We're going to get started about 8:45pm Eastern Time. They'll be announcing the rankings between two college basketball games. So aside from the basketball, aside from rooting for good clean finishes and no overtimes, Tom, what are you looking forward to here on Tuesday night from the new rankings?
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B
I think like you just said, the thing I'm most looking forward to is a good clean end. I hope it's a blowout and we're not extending the game for an extra 10 minutes so we can just get to the rankings and get on with it. But I would say the most interesting thing, and there are a lot of things I think that will be worth noting in the rankings tonight, but the biggest one for me is with their losses over the weekend. I want to see how far Alabama and Texas fall in the rankings to try to get an idea of what their path is. Now, obviously Alabama still has the ability to get to the SEC championship and win the sec. And I do think that if they do that, they're going to get a first round buy. @ a minimum, they might even get the two seed depending on what happens elsewhere. So the bigger story is probably Texas because now that the Longhorns have three losses, how far down will the committee drop them? Because depending on how far it is, I think that gives us a strong indication of how the committee views Texas compared to other two lost teams and how, how strongly they're going to measure Texas's strength of schedule. Because to this point, when you compare it to the other two lost teams the Longhorns are competing with, their strength of schedule is going to be ranked better than those teams. So we're going to get our first really true indication of, of the changes that the committee has made or at least said that they made about strength of schedule over the off season. After the SEC was pretty vocal about their displeasure of their three loss teams being left out for two lost teams from the ACC last year.
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A
And last year you mentioned those three lost teams. I was looking at this as you know, the, the floor here for a team like that is going to be one of the first teams being out now has all the politicking, has the introduction to of new schedule strength, record strength metrics allowed the SEC to position itself so that if Texas is able to win out against Arkansas and Texas A and M, both of those games being at home, you know, would Texas be able to have the fortune that was not there for nine and three Alabama, the fortune that was not there for nine and three South Carolina and the fortune that was not there for 9 and 3 ole miss one year ago? When you look at the Texas resume, I think that you've got obviously the, the game that Steve Sarkeesian would like to point to is like, yeah, well you took well who else went into Columbus and played well? Okay, you're going to quality loss your way out of the first one. But Tom, there's no excuse for the Florida loss. That is a bad loss, SEC or not. That is a team that lost to South Florida. That is a team that is not going to be bowl eligible. That is a team that continues to stack defeat after defeat after defeat. For Texas to be able to take a step back and say, hey look, we got beat by Georgia in Athens again, lose to Ohio State, lose to Georgia, both of those games on the road. I get that. As we're really starting to, you know, hold Texas's feet to the fire, so to speak, when it comes to where they're going to stand. I, I would hope that the selection committee is going to recognize that that defeat to this Florida team, even at that point in the season is it is something worth knocking them for in the rankings.
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B
Oh, I, I a hundred percent agree with you. This is a Florida team that's very likely going to finish 4 and 8 and you can't really argue your way out of 4 and 8 trying to defend that. When you've lost that team, you are one of the only four wins that it has, that's a really bad look for you. But to kind of push back on another thing you mentioned, like I can excuse a loss to Georgia. I don't know if I excuse a 25 point loss to Georgia. To me, when you lose by a margin that wide, that kind of indicates to me that maybe you're just not one of the 12 best teams in the country. Because typically you've seen these teams that have losses that are ahead of Texas that maybe don't have the same strength of schedule number that they do. But when they've lost these games to other top teams, they've been in those games and Texas fans will tell you that they were in this game. But it's hard to argue you were in a game when you lost by 25, especially when you never had the ball with a chance to tie the game or take the lead over the final 42 minutes of a game, which was the position that Texas was in. So I think if they factor in game control like they used to, remember when we were first introduced to that phrase in 2014 and had no idea what it meant. Now we know. And the game control metrics for Texas in that Georgia game were awful. They were never in control at any point. In fact, if you look at like the all the fancy nerd stats, the post game win expectancy numbers, Georgia had a 100% post game win expectancy, which means there was no chance Texas was ever going to win that one. So I do think we have seen teams punished for that. But what we don't know is going back is with the way that they're going to look at strength of schedule. Now how much does that matter? Like as long as you only lose to a good team, is that the only thing that matters or will the margin matter too?
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A
What do you think is going to happen with Oklahoma and with Alabama? Because we are starting to have some head to head results that don't necessarily all agree with each other. I think it's very clear that for Oklahoma winning in Tuscaloosa, no matter the game control metric, post game win expectancy there, which in case you haven't seen is itty bitty. But Alabama is still a team that has a lot of wins that the committee is going to like. They're going to like of course the win against the Georgia Bulldogs, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, all teams that are likely to be in there in the back half of their top 25 rankings. So yes, Oklahoma probably set for a move up. Alabama set for a move down. That is there a spot or is there another team? How are you looking for the committee's opinion on this? We've already heard from the AP Top 25 to get a sense of what it is CBS Sports 136 as well. Where in the CBS Sports 136 Alabama was still ahead of Oklahoma. You know I mean it this is a consensus ranking. Everybody has their own ballots and they were I believe it was 9.2 to 9.8. So like everybody agrees that with the same general idea somewhere between 7 and 11. But some people want to continue to reward Alabama for the win against Georgia and the other quality wins, maybe even forgiveness for the loss to Florida State and for Oklahoma, while you do have this string of impressive wins, you also have a game control. You also have a no show laying an egg dud that happened in the Red river rivalry against Texas. Now if the committee wants to talk about it and by the way, Mack Rhodes, remember no longer a part of the committee, he stepped down. It will be Arkansas athletic director Hunter Jura. Check that we will hear from to try to represent the committee. He might point to for Oklahoma the fact that this team has played really good ball basically since Red river. That's a three and one record. And though that is a loss, that is an 8.1 score loss in a back and forth game against Ole Miss. You look at the road win against Tennessee, the road win against Alabama, those have to hold some weight. As you look at the Alabama Oklahoma in that sort of 7 to 11 range where things could be very important. As we start to really get towards the end of this process, where do you think where do you think those teams will fall and what is the committee going to be looking for?
- [09:45]
B
I mean, I do think Oklahoma is going to get into the top 10. I don't know how far they are going to climb in the top 10. Because, you know, as you mentioned, like the post game win expectancy that we've talked about for Oklahoma in that game was 4.8%. But the fact of the matter is, that game was one of the 4.8%. They did end up winning it. And that is what has to matter far more than any of our little fancy metrics that we like to argue over. So when the committee looks at Oklahoma's resume, they're going to bump them up. They went on the road and they beat Alabama. The circumstances in which it happened don't matter nearly as much as the fact that they w in the win column. And it's another impressive road win for Oklahoma because let's not forget they went on the road and beat Tennessee too. A team that the committee has clearly respected throughout this entire process. So if you are the Sooners right now, like you're sitting and looking at a situation where no matter what you're ranked right now, if you win next week and the week after that, you're 10 and 2 and you are in the College Football Playoff, there's no way a team with those wins is getting left out. The only question will be, do you get a home game in the first round or are you going on the road? And if you're Oklahoma, as I just mentioned, you've won some pretty big games on the road, so maybe you're not all that concerned about having to go on the road to face somebody in the playoffs. You'd just be happy to be there and you think you could beat them. So I, I think tuners are sitting pretty. They're sitting in a good spot. I'm. I'm far more interested in seeing what happened to Alabama because like, in my power ratings personally, Alabama did not fall this week because of the way that they played. There was a lot of crazy stuff that happened in there. So they lose the game. But as far as how good of a team I think they are, nothing changed. But when you look at Alabama's resume and they only had the one loss, and it was that week one loss at Florida State in which they, you know, lost by two scores, you could kind of dismiss it because they won against Georgia since then and they'd won a lot of games, other games. So now that they've got another loss on the resume. How does the committee really look back at that Florida State loss? Especially with the fact that Florida State has not, you know, looked good going on. It's not like the Seminoles have ever really rebounded from that after getting, after losing a bunch of games following that upset win. So once Alabama starts getting compared to teams with two losses, does that Florida State loss become more of an anchor in much the same way we were discussing that Texas loss to Florida should be an anchor on their resume? We don't know what the committee's gonna do. And as you mentioned, there's a brand new committee chairman who knows, Chip, maybe that guy comes in and he lays down the law and completely changes everything altogether.
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My, I, I can't even begin to get into the dynamics there. I just hope that as always, they are listening to Ole Miss and Carolina Panthers legend Wesley Walls, one of the committee members who I know I hold near and dear to my own heart. Come on, Wesley, let's land in a good place. One last thing that I do want to point our attention to because Tom Fornelli was at the foremost like he, he was on the front lines there. He said, I, I hear all you guys that are trying to spend this doomsday scenario about the Duke Blue Devils being behind the James Madison Dukes, it ain't gonna happen. And you know what? The Duke Blue Devils took care of it for you with one of the most woeful offensive performances of the season. They did it at home. They did it to Virginia. Bye, bye. Blue Devils out the paint. So now we can start to talk about the James Madison Dukes still as they continue to string together impressive score after impressive score. Because as the loss for South Florida up at Navy has really opened up the American Athletic Conference. Now I think we're kind of looking at a different angle to this where I've got to say, Tom, looking at tonight's rankings, my guess is that both North Texas and James Madison have a real shot to check in. 23, 24, 25. Do you think that there is a possibility that the committee will tip their hand in terms of which one of those teams or conferences it ends up favoring based on who is or is not ranked?
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B
If they're both ranked, I'm very confident North Texas will be ranked ahead of James Madison. I've been on the record saying that I don't think James Madison has a legitimate shot of reaching the College Football Playoff no matter what happens. And I don't think James Madison's case was helped over the weekend because one of the high points of their resume had been that they lost to Louisville and then they were going to be playing Southern Miss in the Sun Belt Championship game, which is another team that had a good record. Well, Louisville lost again last week and Southern Miss lost last week. So that really hurts JMU's chance to improve their strength of schedule overall, which I think is going to prove to be a little too low. It's currently in about 115th nationally depending on which one you like to look at, which we've seen in the past. Last year army went 11:1 and had a strength of schedule that ranked 85th in the country. They finished in the rankings behind a 9 and 3 Syracuse team that had a strength of schedule in the 70s. So clearly the committee does not really give these G5 teams much of the benefit of the doubt, particularly the ones from the Sun Belt. But there is a chance that they do get in simply because the American might cannibalize itself. And you've seen North Texas, if we look at their strength of schedule right now, it's not exactly, you know, lighting up the charts either. And they have a huge blowout loss to South Florida on their resume that could prove to be difficult for them to overcome. So it will be really interesting to see what the committee does. My gut tells me, it strongly tells me that they will lean towards the American because if you look at how the American has performed in non conference this year, we discussed South Florida beating Florida earlier in the segment, that is not the only win that conference has over Power four teams. In fact, the American has. The American has six wins over power four conference teams this year. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt as a conference is 1 in 15 and that one does not belong to James Madison. So I just think it's a tremendously large hill that the Dukes have to climb. I'm not sitting here and arguing and saying they don't deserve it because I think they're a very good football team. But perception wise and just the way that the committee works and we have seen the way that they have done these rankings in the past, I don't think they have a viable path.
- [15:42]
A
If James Madison is not in these rankings, then I think I might be able to say the committee is shutting the door. If it is a North Texas, North Texas at 23, JMU at 25, then you've still got the cannibalization path that I think is there. But that's another thing to look at as we're continuing to piece together what this bracket is going to look like on Selection Sunday, figuring out who's going to be the fifth highest ranked conference champion. That's a big piece of this as well. That's something I think we'll learn Tuesday night. Again, they tell us 8:30. I don't know, it's between a couple basketball games. What I can tell you is that at 8:45pm Eastern time, whether the rankings have started or not will be live. YouTube.com covered three come and hang out as we break it all down and coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the coaching carousel. Yes, some of the news of the week James Franklin, former Penn State head coach. He is going to be the next head coach at Virginia Tech. Reaction to the hire and what it means for Penn State, what it means for ucla, what it means for the rest of the jobs that are open and more.
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A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network Taking a look at the coach and carousel, which did have some significant news break on Tuesday. Monday afternoon that would be James Franklin will be introduced as the next head coach at Virginia Tech. The news is made official by Virginia Tech on Monday afternoon. And now, Tom, we've got the former Penn State coach who very boisterously told anyone who would listen he is ready to continue coaching the moment that Penn State fired him and he wants to continue pursuing national championships. And, and he's out there, you know, rumored or linked to jobs both open and not open yet. James Franklin now takes over at Virginia Tech. I know we discussed this a little bit on the Instant Reaction show, which you can find wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.com cover three. But as we've had time to let the news settle in, what do you think are going to be some of the biggest challenges or what's on the to do list for James Franklin that, that you're going to be tracking as. As things start to move forward with the James Franklin era at Virginia Tech?
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B
Well, I think first of all, the one thing that they have to do is bring in the talent, because this is a Virginia Tech team that if you think back to the golden era of Frank Beamer, when they were winning in the Big east and in the acc when they first joined the league, they were churning out NFL draft picks pretty regularly. They had a ton of excellent players and they really utilized a fertile recruiting ground in the state of Virginia to bring that talent, keep it home and, you know, put them in the maroon and orange. That's James Franklin's strength. James Franklin at Vanderbilt was able to recruit to that school at a level that school had not really seen before. At Penn State, he was able to recruit to an extremely high level, higher than Paterno had been at the end of his tenure and higher than Bill o' Brien had been, which helped get Penn State back into that conversation where they could be considered a contender in the Big Ten and in the national picture. So now he's staying in an area he's very familiar with. You've seen the Penn State class that they had been putting together this year under James Franklin before things completely went off the rails. That class has kind of been falling apart a little bit. You've seen a lot of guys decommit from it. How many of those players are now going to be interested in following James Franklin to Virginia Tech? Because we, we've seen plenty of times, like in this Portal era, it's really, you know, it's, it's not the norm, but it's far easier to flip things in a hurry when you take over the program. And a rebuild doesn't have to take three or four years. You can typically get it done in one or two off seasons. And with James Franklin's recruiting chops and with the fact that we've seen him rebuild two programs already, I like the chances of Virginia Tech maybe not climbing to the top of the ACC right away, but having a nice rebound and having a success, successful year in year one under Franklin, getting back to a bowl, making noise in the acc, maybe pulling off an upset or two. I just think overall my feelings about this hire are the same as they were when they first heard it. And I say this, you know, Chip, you and I, we have no idea about these coaching hirings and how they're going to work out. Nobody does, because it's never just as easy as this coach is good, so he's going to win. There's a whole lot of factors that always go into it that could either help it work or could tank it. But I just think if you're looking at what Virginia Tech wanted and needed in a candidate, James Franklin checked every single box that Virginia Tech could want. You mentioned there were other schools, some of whom hadn't even fired their coach yet, that we were wondering if they would get rid of their guy to go after James Franklin. So it's not like he was sitting out there with nobody interested. So for Virginia Tech to be able to check every single box off of its want list and get the guy that they wanted while there were other schools that would probably still be interested in him, in him out there, I think it's a great hire for Virginia Tech. I think it should work out. And I think that if you're a hokey fan right now, you're more excited about your program than you probably have been in five, six, seven years.
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A
I mean, even since the very end of the Frank Beamer tenure. Because while Justin Fuentes came in and got Virginia Tech to an ACC championship game, I believe it was 2016, and that's really the last time we've seen Virginia Tech really sniff ACC championship contention. Something that, you know, Virginia Tech joins the league in 2004 and basically all the way until maybe 2012, every single year, Virginia Tech was an ACC title contender. Every single year Frank Beamer had that squad, you know, double digit wins, contending for an ACC title, the Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech game, Frank Beamer, Paul Johnson, whoever wins that, you're going to the ACC championship to go play against Florida State or Clemson or Boston College or Wake Forest in those years. But, you know, they try not to talk about those years. But speaking of trying not to talk about it. You know, I mentioned this to you on the Instant Reaction podcast yesterday, but I've continued to dig in on it. So, as I told you, Frank Beamer, career winning percentage, 6. 59 at Virginia Tech. 6. 59. Pretty good, Frank. James Franklin, 6. 80 career winning percentage. That encompasses Penn State and Vanderbilt. And I was thinking about it, I was like, oh, like string together top 10 wins, be in the mix for the conference title, go to big bowl games. That is all stuff James Franklin can do. But there's also the underside of it, which unfortunately makes this work even more. Frank Beamer in games against top six opponents 2 and 24. James Franklin in games against top six opponents, 2 and 21. Now, if you want to get reckless with this, and if you want to cut this both ways, congratulations, Virginia Tech. You just hired another Frank Beamer. For all of the good and maybe for some of the frustrations, you have found a coach who can deliver the results similar to and on the same caliber of the icon of your program. Now, there are some other things that I do think make this, you know, even more enhanced, as I was a little bit cheeky pulling out some of those top six results because James Franklin, to your point, took the recruiting process, you know, took some of the infrastructure process and helped Penn State move into the future. And at Virginia Tech, they admitted, but internally, on the record, both our investments do not match our expectations. They wanted to compete for ACC titles, but they were not at all. And I'm not even talking about paying players or what your nil budget is. I mean, I'm talking about all of the resources that go into your football program. Virginia Tech had not been investing on the level of their ACC peers, and their ACC peers ain't even investing on the wet level of the top 20 programs in the country. So with James Franklin now able to take this new investment, he can help them put it in the right places. He can help Virginia Tech level up. And Tom, maybe it is my North Carolina roots, but sometimes I think about race cars, right? You know, like, oh, like home of nascar. But yeah, in the acc, what. What speed is the pace car doing right now with where Florida State is, with where Clemson is looking at an ACC title picture right now, which, with all respect to these programs, Georgia Tech, Virginia, smu, like, we've got a scenario where who's in your way? If you are Virginia Tech led by James Franklin, who is the monster that scares you in the league. So I think that this has been an A plus process to identify someone who can make you Better identify someone who can raise your floor. And you know what? Virginia Tech would love to be frustrated about not hitting a ceiling. But I can tell you right now that given the current state of the Atlantic Coast Conference, there is no reason why Virginia Tech can't one year from today be in that mix where we're like well there's seven teams in the mix for the ACC championship game right now in mid November. I think Virginia Tech can be one of them. So I think it's easy to say that was a home A famous last words home run higher for Virginia Tech fans to to say here. Anything else on this hire before we take a look at what might be next to where else is got your attention on the carousel?
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B
Yeah, just to expand your thought there about how the ACC is kind of open right now. Like let's look at the situation like the reason all those teams are at the top of the league is because Clemson and Florida State are just completely lost in the wilderness right now. And Florida State's in a point where their fans are wondering or kind of wishing that they would fire their coach and move on. So you're looking at a situation where next year with Franklin's in his first season at Virginia Tech, Florida State might be in the process of starting over with another coach for again and trying to, you know, rekindle the magic. But then also Georgia Tech at the top of the league. I don't think he's leaving, but Brent Key is a name that keeps being mentioned at other jobs including at Penn State. So it's possible Georgia Tech is starting over next year. I I don't think Virginia Tech is going to win the ACC next year. But you know what Chip SMU joined the league and in its first season got to the ACC championship. There is no reason to think the Hokies can't be in the race next season.
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A
Great point. Arkansas, UCLA among the other power conference jobs that are open. Also if we want to sort of step up, we've got your Auburn, your lsu, your Florida. There is where is Lane Kiffin today? I think he's on a television show right now. Where is the family today? Where are the Kiffins? What what is the next piece that you are watching? Is it Kiffin related or is there anything non Kiffin related that you're going to be curious about here over the course of the next week or so?
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B
I don't think we're going to see another spot filled for a while simply because it's important to remember James Franklin doesn't have A job so Virginia Tech can make this higher right now, whereas all these other coaches are still finishing their seasons. I do think the next quote unquote domino we're going to see will be Lane Kiffin, simply because Ole Miss has given the ultimatum where they say, listen, whether you're staying or going, figure it out before the Egg bowl so we can all move on with our lives. So I do think that will be the next big decision we see whether it's leaving or going. And I'm guessing if we hear it before the Egg bowl, it's because he's staying, because he's not going to announce he's leaving before the of the season in a college football playoff.
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A
What if we get a big egg that he can crack and on the inside is a hat with the logo of the school he's going to choose? You know, I just, at this point, I kind of want us to go all in, all in on the theatrics of it because lsu, Florida, Ole Miss and any of the other coaches that are potentially in the mix for any of those jobs all lying in the weeds. Maybe if Ole Miss needs to move on, there's a little bit of a overlap with Auburn when it comes to some of the candidates that you would want. Just, just, just fascinating, fascinating times on the coaching carousel. Always spinning and always giving us the latest. Oh yeah, and Penn State has to make a higher. You know what? I'd forgotten about Penn State still having to make a higher. They were, they were out there early firing James Franklin. The Nittany Lions also as they continue to roll through their process. I expect things will move quickly. Like you mentioned, once we finally get the regular season done, have an idea of who's moving ahead into the postseason and so much more. Well, coming up on the other side, it's one of the biggest games in the Big Ten all season long. College Football Playoff implications, huge coaching matchup. It's Oregon and usc. We'll break it down big game breakdown style next back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. One of our favorite things to do is to be able to take a little bit of time, not necessarily with our best bets or against the spread picks over unders first quarters exotics. No, no, no, no. That is for Thursdays where of course we give you our locks for the weekend at 11am over on YouTube.com cover3. No, we like to go inside the matchup itself, tell you why we expect the result to be one way or the other, where we are watching the X factors, the places where it will be decided and the stakes of the matchup don't get much larger than what we have at 3:30pm Eastern time with big time on CBS as it will be Oregon and USC. Now Oregon of course finds itself in a advantageous position. They've survived a nice little bit of a a rain soaked coldy grinder against Iowa. They get back home, Minnesota comes to town and then whoop, they just show off some of that flash and dash explosive performances in a runaway win against the Golden Gophers. Well, it's a good thing they got those joints limber because here come the USC Trojans. So Tom, stylistically, what are some of your expectations in terms of the way that these two teams will match up against each other, especially as it looks at the strengths and weaknesses for both of these squads?
- [32:01]
B
Well, what's funny is if you just look at the raw stats for both of these offenses, they're very similar and they've had very similar production overall as far as like success rate and points per drive and EPA and all that kind of fun stuff. It's just they go about it in different ways. USC is far more passing based, whereas Oregon has been more run based and they've been better at the run game. And I think that's one of the interesting parts of this matchups and what Oregon has been dealing with in recent weeks and how it kind of maybe helps them in this matchup because they've been without Decorian more They did not have Gary Gary Bryant last week after he was hurt in the Iowa game. Although they did get Kenya and Sadiq, their stud tight end and their starting right tackle back Alex Harkey for Minnesota. But what we saw is while all those guys were out, Oregon was really leaning on its running game, particularly its freshman Jordan. Oh Jordan. I can't remember his last name right now, but anyways, Dear Hill and Jordan, their running backs were just able to run all over the place in these last few games. And if you look at this matchup against USC like we've done talked about how their defense has improved the last few years over d' Anton Lynn and it has. But where it's really struggling this year is stopping the run. Teams have been able to run the ball all over these Trojans like they are 120th nationally in success rate. They're 126th in EPA per rush. So with Oregon coming with Jordan Davidson and Dier Hill, will they continue to lean on that run game against this USC defense that just really has not shown an ability to stop it at all this year because if you do, A, it's probably going to be successful for you. You're going to be able to move the ball, you're going to be able to put points on the board and B, it keeps that USC offense off of the field. And you don't really want Jade Mava and Makai Lemon and Jacoby Lane out there because they're very difficult to cover. I don't care how good your defense is. The fact of the matter, even against Indiana, who has an excellent quarterback and excellent receivers, I don't think Indiana's receivers are as good as USC's. Their quarterback might be better, but receiver wise, it's a different animal. It's going to be very difficult to cover them. So I think you want to keep them on the sideline as much as possible. So I do expect we will see Oregon really lean into the run game whether Decoran Moore or Gary Bryant are healthy or not. And I think that's going to be the one thing if you're usc, because we've seen Lincoln Riley in the win against Michigan and then in last week's win against Iowa, how like he was hyping up the idea that USC was winning these physical Big Ten football games. It was like the thing that was always being knocked is can USC handle it in the trenches when they play real Big Ten football? Well, they're playing one of their old Pack 12 rivals this weekend, but they're going to have to play old school Big Ten football to win this game on the road at Austin Stadium.
- [34:49]
A
See, I could not get over the Oregon defense looking at Jade Maeve, looking at Jacoby Lane, Makai Lemon and thinking about this passing attack because you know, in, in the words of our colleague Bud Elliott, so, so what's, what's the best passing attack that, that Oregon has faced this year? Because if you look at it, only one team all season long has thrown for more than 200 yards against this Oregon defense. It was the team that you mentioned earlier. It was the Indiana Hoosiers and that was still just 215. Is that Oregon's like as we're looking at the credit here because obviously all of that is good. The fact that nobody has really been able to cook your defense through the air. Is that the secondary? Is it a personnel thing? Is that the scheme where I think that given Dan Lanning's background, I give him and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoise some credit. Is it the edge rushers or what they're doing up Front. When we think about this Oregon defense, what has allowed them to be both statistically and also sort of in practice. To my eye, a really good defense at not getting picked apart through the air.
- [36:01]
B
It's. I, I think it's a combination of factors. I do think, like if you look at the sack numbers, Matayo Uiungalay is not having the kind of season that maybe you were hoping for him to have. But if you watch the tape, you can see that he is still very disruptive. He's still getting pressures. It's just he's dealing with a lot of double teams and sometimes triple teams with tight ends coming in to chip them and. But it has helped members of this defensive line get freer in one on one matchups. But I think the biggest thing that they have done is they've limited explosive plays. Like, if you look at the numbers, Oregon's defense ranks first nationally in explosive play rate against that is something that is very important. And we have seen they are willing to keep you in front of them to get and not give up the big play. So that way if you do manage to get to the red zone before you turn over, turn the ball over or have to punt, they feel like they can really lock in and keep you from even, keep you out of the end zone, reduce you to field goals. Because if you're kicking field goals, you're not going to beat Oregon because their offense is just too explosive and too powerful. So I think that has been the approach and that will be something that USC has to master here. But the one thing that I worry about with the Trojans in this spot is if we look at how this team has been on the year, they're much different at home than they are on the road. Like they did go on the road to beat Nebraska last we saw them. But it's important to remember they were losing that game before Dylan Raiola broke his leg and Nebraska had to go to a true freshman in TJ Lateef who had very little experience and say, all right, young man, go out there and protect this lead against the Trojans and keep our playoff hopes alive. And he didn't do a very good job of it. USC did not play well in that game, but they came back to win. But they've also lost on the road to Notre Dame. They lost on the road to Illinois. They didn't look great in their win over Purdue. So while it's not the same length of a road trip that. But we have seen them having to go across the country, it's still a trip very far up north to face an Oregon team that is outstanding at home in one of the most difficult road environments in the country. And along with USC's overall performance, if you look at Jade Mava's numbers at home compared to on the road, Chip, they fall off a cliff. Like his completion rate plummets, his yards per attempt plummets, his TD rate decreases by nearly three times, his interception rate more than double doubles like this is something that they are going to have to figure out because Austin is one of the most difficult places to play in the country. Which is why I think Indiana going on the road earlier this year and beating the ducks by 10 in Austin is probably still the most impressive win I have seen a team have. I know that if you look resume wise you'd say Oklahoma's win over Alabama might be better based on that, but I think if you look at performance wise in the situation, it's still that Indiana wins. So can USC do that? Particularly coming off these kind of, you know, emotional kind of wins at home against Iowa where they've proven their physicality, can they follow it up again and go up against another physical team on the road and win this game? It's going to be fascinating to watch. I cannot wait to see this game.
- [38:50]
A
Yeah, USC has been a second half team all season long. I wouldn't wait till the second half with this one. Lincoln. I would be able to, you know, start on the front foot, have a crispy first 15. If you can get it in the end zone then that would at least give your team a little bit of confidence, give your team a little bit of rhythm. It is a massive game for the Big Ten, the College Football Playoff outlook and of course Oregon and usc because as you mentioned Tom, these are two programs that hold themselves to championship contention standard and whenever you meet in one of these games it is a great way to measure yourself against your peers. Oregon USC 3:30pm Eastern Time kickoff. You can watch it on CBS, you can stream it on Paramount Plus. Well coming up on the other side, from teams at the very top to teams that are flirting with their postseason future, we'll play everyone's favorite game, bowl or no bowl and more.
- [39:49]
B
Next.
- [39:54]
F
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- [40:24]
G
This episode is brought to you by Disney. This Thanksgiving, Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde are back on the big screen. So grab your family and friends as Disney invites you to return to Zootopia for the Fur Nominal movie event of the holiday season. See all your favorite Zootopia characters plus new favorites in the most paw some movie of the year. Don't miss Disney Zootopia 2 when it hits theaters everywhere November 26th. Get your tickets now.
- [40:55]
A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. That's Tom Fornelli. I'm Chip Patterson. Time to a couple rounds a bowl or no bowl. The rules are very simple. Will this team make a bowl game? Let's begin with the Florida State Seminoles. Tom Fornelli, you see right there. Florida State is 5 and 5. Just one win to reach bowl eligibility. Here's the problem. None of the remaining games are in Tallahassee. They are going to be in Raleigh, North Carolina to take on NC State. This is Friday night. Then they close the season at Florida. Rivalry game in Gainesville. Five and five need one of them. North Carolina State in Florida. Is Florida State a bowl team, bowl or no Bowl?
- [41:43]
B
Florida State's own 3 on the road, Chip. And they never win on the road in Raleigh against NC State, particularly on weeknights. And I think that they're going to go on the road at the end of the year and lose to Florida. So no, I do not think the Florida State Seminoles are going to make a bowl, which is a wild thing to say after they started the year with a win against Alabama.
- [42:01]
A
Yeah, Mike Glennon is still throwing crossing routes in Carter Finley Stadium and lighting up a Jimbo Fisher team that otherwise could have been playing for an ACC title. I like that shout right there. I'm going to say bowl. I think Florida State gets one last win. It might be in Gainesville as Gainesville will have its own motivations after what should be a poured out moment against Tennessee. Those are two Tennessee and Florida State both in Gainesville is an interesting spot for a team that is already mathematically eliminated itself. Let's stay in the ACC for the next one. Speaking of rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels, they need a 20 finish. They are 4 and 6 on the season. They have closed the home schedule against Duke coming up this Saturday and then the following week they will be at NC State. So Bill Belichick said that Little Billy's first words were beat Duke. Does he do it and is he then able to follow it up with the win against NC State, NC Tar Heels, bowl or no bowl.
- [43:05]
B
I like North Carolina's chances of getting one win out of these last two games. I do not like their chance of winning both of them. I think that that Wake Forest game was critical for them to get to a bowl game and losing that kind of sunk their chances. So I'm going to go no. I think that they lose to Duke and then finish with the win over NC State.
- [43:24]
A
I might flip flop it, but I agree with your declaration of bowl or no bowl. Hard to trust an offense that ranks outside of the top 100 in nearly every significant category to score enough points. Cause last time I checked to win a lot of football games you got to score some points. Defense has been fantastic, but Argyle Iowa just ain't quite to that eight win Iowa mark quite yet. Let's take it over to the Big Ten. Let's look at the Penn State Nittany Lions. Now Penn State is 4 and 6 and they've got an interesting matchup with Nebraska coming to town. Why is that so interesting? Well, cause everybody told me Matt Rule was the name to watch and Matt Rule was the name to watch. Is Matt Rule going to be the one who gives Penn State its seventh loss of the season? And if Penn State pulls off the win, can they keep it focused to go win in Piscataway against Rutgers? The Penn State Nittany Lions 4 and 6 remaining schedule home Nebraska Road Rutgers Penn State bowl or no bowl.
- [44:27]
B
I'm going bowl. I I think if you look at the way this team has been playing since firing James Franklin, like they've stayed bought in. Like getting that win last week I think was huge. But even before that they had close losses on the road against Iowa. And I think that with mess with their backup quarterback Ethan Gruckenmeyer in there, they're finally kind of finding their groove. They're making more big plays in the passing game. And I just think that if you look at Nebraska as we mentioned earlier, like this is still a team that has to start a true freshman quarterback because of the injury to Dylan Raiola, now he's going on the road to play, you know, in front of a hundred thousand screaming fans. I don't think he's gonna have a great day. And then I think Rutgers, they'll win the end. Yeah, crazy it is to say it. I think Penn State's going bowling.
- [45:06]
A
They're still playing hard. You know, like this is. There are still future NFL players on this Penn State roster and they are playing with pride. Yeah I I like the the shout here. I'll jump on it too. I if Penn State can win against Nebraska, then yeah, I think Penn State can can carry it all the way and reach bowl eligibility. I say Penn State yes bowl team in 2025. Coming up on the other side, we do like to leave you with some players to watch in the week ahead. We'll give you all that and more back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. Always love to leave you with a player to watch. Tom Fridelli, who do you have your eye on here for week 13?
- [45:55]
B
I have my eyes on a player that I've let down, Chip Patterson. Before the season started, I wrote a column about how Haynes King was one of the most underrated players in the country. And here is Haynes King having another outstanding season and yet nobody's really talking about him. When it comes to the Heisman conversation, you never really hear Haynes King's name being mentioned. Yet Georgia Tech in the hunt for an ACC title, in the hunt for a playoff berth. And it's Haynes putting the team on his back all season long. Over 3,000 total yards, 24 total touchdowns and only two interceptions. I'm sorry Haynes. I won't let it happen again.
- [46:29]
A
I'm so glad that your apology got on record. I'm going to turn our attention to Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The Bearcats have lost two straight games. They're starting to slide a little bit from at one point being in the mix. Can Brendan Sorsby snap the streak? They're gonna be playing BYU. Come and hang out on the COVID 3 podcast. Instant reaction tonight. YouTube.com cover3.
- [46:59]
H
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- [47:19]
B
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H
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D
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