Cover 3 College Football Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode: USC-Oregon Preview | Bowl Or No Bowl | Franklin To Virginia Tech | CFP Storylines To Watch
Date: November 18, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli
Platform: CBS Sports

Overview

In this episode of the Cover 3 College Football Podcast, Chip Patterson and Tom Fornelli dive into a crucial weekend of college football. The episode features an in-depth preview of the USC-Oregon Big Ten showdown, analysis of the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee rankings and debates, discussion of James Franklin’s move to Virginia Tech, coaching carousel updates, rapid-fire “Bowl or No Bowl” predictions, and names to watch for week 13.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Rankings: What to Watch (00:00-16:57)

Committee Behavior and Ranking Philosophy

• The episode kicks off with anticipation for the next batch of CFP rankings, focusing on how the committee will handle teams with multiple losses, specifically Alabama and Texas.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • On Alabama: “If they get to the SEC championship and win... they’re going to get a first round bye at a minimum.” (02:50)
  • On Texas: “Now that the Longhorns have three losses, how far down will the committee drop them? ... That gives us a strong indication of how the committee views Texas compared to other two lost teams and how strongly they're going to measure Texas's strength of schedule.” (03:15)
  • Raises questions about the value and penalization of specific losses, referencing Texas’s defeat to a weak Florida team and their 25-point loss to Georgia as examples the committee might hold against them.
• Quote of Note
  • Chip: “There's no excuse for the Florida loss. That is a bad loss, SEC or not... For Texas to be able to take a step back and say, hey look, we got beat by Georgia in Athens again, lose to Ohio State, lose to Georgia, both of those games on the road. I get that.” (04:00)

Oklahoma and Alabama in the Mix

• Discussion about how head-to-head results and recent performances may jumble the back half of the top 10.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • “Post game win expectancy (for Oklahoma over Alabama) was 4.8%. But ... that game was one of the 4.8%. ... That is what has to matter far more than any of our little fancy metrics.” (09:45)
  • Notes Oklahoma’s collection of quality road wins; Alabama’s resume scrutiny now intensifies because of additional losses and the diminished status of Florida State.

Non-Power 5 Schools and CFP Access

• James Madison and North Texas are discussed as potential playoff/wild card dark horses. Tom is skeptical of JMU’s path given their weak strength of schedule and recent stumbles by teams they beat.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • “My gut tells me, it strongly tells me that [the committee] will lean towards the American [North Texas], because if you look at how the American has performed in non-conference this year... Meanwhile, the Sun Belt as a conference is 1–15 and that one does not belong to James Madison. So I just think it's a tremendously large hill that the Dukes have to climb.” (13:39)

2. The Coaching Carousel: James Franklin to Virginia Tech (18:29–29:00)

Analyzing the Franklin Hire

• Virginia Tech makes it official: James Franklin (ex-Penn State, ex-Vanderbilt) is the new Hokies head coach.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • “The one thing they have to do is bring in the talent ... That's James Franklin's strength...” (19:40)
  • Notes Franklin’s ability to elevate recruiting and rapidly rebuild programs, referencing both his Vandy and Penn State stints.
  • “If you're looking at what Virginia Tech wanted and needed in a candidate, James Franklin checked every single box...” (21:42)
• Chip draws parallel data points between Franklin and legendary VT coach Frank Beamer, notably their similar records against Top 6 opponents, and sees Franklin as a ‘floor-raising’ hire who fits the school's culture and ambition.

The State of the ACC and Opportunity for Virginia Tech

• Both hosts agree the ACC is open for a new contender as mainstays Clemson and Florida State are in flux.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • “Next year...with Franklin in his first season at Virginia Tech, Florida State might be in the process of starting over with another coach... I don't think Virginia Tech is going to win the ACC next year. But...SMU joined the league and in its first season got to the ACC championship. There is no reason to think the Hokies can't be in the race next season.” (27:00)
• Briefly mentions pending hires at Arkansas, UCLA, Auburn, LSU, Florida, and the looming “Lane Kiffin decision” at Ole Miss.

3. Big Game Breakdown: USC vs. Oregon (29:00–39:49)

Matchup Analysis

• Oregon’s offense has shifted to a ground-and-pound approach amid injury setbacks, which could be a deadly combination against USC’s porous run defense.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • “USC is far more passing based, whereas Oregon has been more run based...USC defense...has really been struggling this year...stopping the run. Teams have been able to run the ball all over these Trojans...” (32:00)
• The panel stresses the run game as Oregon’s advantage, and the need for USC to prove physicality on the road, referencing Lincoln Riley’s recent efforts to shake a “finesse” reputation.

Oregon Defense vs. USC Passing Attack

• Oregon’s secondary is praised for limiting explosive plays and keeping opponents out of the end zone. The hosts break down how Oregon dethrones pass-happy attacks.
• Tom Fornelli:
  • “Oregon's defense ranks first nationally in explosive play rate against...We have seen they are willing to keep you in front of them and not give up the big play.” (36:01)
  • Also points out USC struggles on the road, especially quarterback Jade Mava’s declining away stats: “His completion rate plummets, his yards per attempt plummets, his TD rate decreases by nearly three times, his interception rate more than double-doubles.” (36:01)
• Quote of Note:
  • “Oregon is outstanding at home in one of the most difficult road environments in the country. ... So can USC do that? ... It's going to be fascinating to watch.” (36:01)

Stakes Defined

• Both programs are measured by championship standards; this game could decide the CFP fate for the Big Ten.

4. Bowl or No Bowl: Postseason Bubble Teams (40:55–45:55)

Florida State

• 5-5, two tough upcoming road games at NC State and Florida
• Tom: “No, I do not think the Florida State Seminoles are going to make a bowl, which is a wild thing to say after they started the year with a win against Alabama.” (41:42)
• Chip: “I think Florida State gets one last win. It might be in Gainesville.” (42:00)

North Carolina

• Have to win out versus Duke (home) and NC State (away) to reach bowl eligibility.
• Tom: “I like North Carolina’s chances of getting one win out of these last two games. I do not like their chance of winning both of them... So I’m going to go no.” (43:04)

Penn State

• Now 4-6 under an interim coach, with Nebraska at home and Rutgers on the road.
• Tom: “I’m going bowl. ... They’ve stayed bought in. ... I think Penn State's going bowling.” (44:27)
• Chip: “Yeah, I like the shout here. ... Penn State yes bowl team in 2025.” (45:05)

5. Players to Watch for Week 13 (45:55–46:59)

Tom's Pick: Haynes King, Georgia Tech Quarterback

• “Here is Haynes King having another outstanding season and yet nobody’s really talking about him...Over 3,000 total yards, 24 total touchdowns and only two interceptions. I’m sorry Haynes. I won’t let it happen again.” (45:55)

Chip's Pick: Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati QB

• “Can Brendan Sorsby snap the streak? They’re gonna be playing BYU.” (46:28)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Alabama's Playoff Path:
  “If [Alabama] gets to the SEC championship and win the SEC, they're going to get a first round bye at a minimum.” – Tom Fornelli (02:50)

• On Texas's Bad Loss:
  “There's no excuse for the Florida loss. That is a bad loss, SEC or not.” – Chip Patterson (04:00)

• On CFP Committee Metrics:
  “Game control metrics for Texas in that Georgia game were awful. They were never in control at any point.” – Tom Fornelli (05:42)

• On the State of the ACC:
  “The ACC is kind of open right now...SMU joined the league and in its first season got to the ACC championship. There is no reason to think the Hokies can't be in the race next season.” – Tom Fornelli (27:00)

• On High-Stakes for Oregon-USC:
  “You don’t really want Jade Mava and Makai Lemon and Jacoby Lane out there because they’re very difficult to cover. I don’t care how good your defense is.” – Tom Fornelli (32:00)

• On Oregon’s Defensive Dominance:
  “Oregon's defense ranks first nationally in explosive play rate against.” – Tom Fornelli (36:01)

• On Bowl Hopes:
  “I do think Penn State's going bowling.” – Tom Fornelli (44:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• CFP Rankings/Committee Analysis: 00:00–16:57
• James Franklin to Virginia Tech/Coaching Carousel: 18:29–29:00
• USC-Oregon Preview: 29:00–39:49
• Bowl or No Bowl Segment: 40:55–45:55
• Players to Watch: 45:55–46:59

Episode Tone & Style

The discussion is lively, insightful, and occasionally cheeky—with both hosts deploying quick statistical breakdowns and playful banter. Tom Fornelli is analytical and direct; Chip Patterson brings context, humor, and rapid recall of historical college football benchmarks. The episode is fast-paced, detail-rich, and assumes an audience deeply invested in the evolving narratives of college football’s biggest teams and figures.

Summary by Cover 3 College Football Podcast Summarizer