Cover 3 College Football Podcast
Week 12 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | Texas-Georgia | Oklahoma-Bama | MORE!
Date: November 13, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
Episode Overview
The Cover 3 team gathers for their signature "LOCKS" episode, diving into the best bets, odds, and predictions for a packed Week 12 of college football. The hosts recap last week’s record, break down the most intriguing matchups—including Texas vs. Georgia and Oklahoma vs. Alabama—and deliver against-the-spread picks, totals, and team props. Along the way, the banter is lively and competitive, with bragging rights and the Cash App LOCKS trophy on the line.
Records Recap & Betting Philosophies
[00:49–05:30]
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Bud Elliott is flying high after a 10-4 week but remarks, “Y’all should have killed me when you had the chance, like Aladdin said, right?” [02:15]
- Bud’s season: 58-54
- He modestly concedes, "Wake was probably a little lucky... Florida-Kentucky, man, I don’t know. I’d bet that under again." [02:15]
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Chip Patterson recounts a tougher stretch: “Five and six for the week has me at 62 and 55 for the season.” [02:42]
- He discusses the challenge of picking only the best games among the top 25 and doing a “little audit” after some rough outings.
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Danny Kanell: A rough 2-7 week, now at 50-56 for the season, but unveils a new approach: “New philosophy in place today. I’m tired of this BSing around. My record in the Top 25 show is 109-88—21 games over .500. I am just pulling from that board today, Chip.” [03:58]
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Tom Fornelli: 5-4 week, sitting at 52-46, laments some tough beats: “Oregon-Iowa had two red zone turnovers. Oregon State outgained Sam Houston by like 400 yards but lost somehow.” [05:15]
Key Insights & Best Bets by Game
Thursday/Friday Action
[07:12–10:34]
Troy at ODU (Thursday)
- Lock: Bud — Troy -10.5
- Bud quips, “Troy boy is back. Let’s go Trojans. Any 11s out there?” [07:46]
- Chip raises concerns about the size of the number but ultimately, Bud locks in: “Let’s lock it up.” [08:05]
Minnesota at Oregon (Friday)
- Bud: “Minnesota team total under 8.5. Slowest moving offense in the country on the road... Oregon in this spot, with injuries at receiver, will lean into the run. Low possession game, Minnesota won’t do much against the Ducks.” [09:00]
- Danny: “Give me the under in the game. Oregon doesn’t need style points, just wins with all those banged up.” [10:07]
- Tom: Expresses some tentativeness, “I wanted to do a little Minnesota here, but I just don’t know that their bodies match up.”
Notre Dame vs. Pitt
[11:38–14:43]
- Chip: “Notre Dame team total over 33.5. There could be some turnovers that lead to short fields, and it could get sideways for Pitt.” [11:42]
- Bud: “I’m gonna go over 55 for the game. If Notre Dame gets out big, they just hand it to Love 20 times. If Pitt’s totally shut down, then I lose. That’s why they call it gambling.” [12:35]
- Tom: Lays the points, “I’m just going to lay the points with Notre Dame -11.5. Pitt has been feasting on the bottom of the ACC, but Notre Dame’s a different animal.” [13:01]
- Danny: Cautious, “Don’t have a good feel. If I was leaning one way, I’d probably lean with Tom and Bud.”
USC vs. Iowa
[15:29–17:09]
- Tom: “USC -6.5. This is the damn breaks for Iowa—they’ve been through emotional games, now travel to LA. USC has been much better at home.” [15:29]
- Bud: “I like USC too. Trying to catch Tom and Chip.”
- Danny: Counter-punches with Iowa +7: “I do think USC will win, but a touchdown’s too many for me. Love the weather for Iowa; those USC receivers will be looking for gloves.” [16:24]
Alabama vs. Oklahoma
[17:49–21:48]
- Chip: “Alabama team total under 26.5. This Oklahoma defense is gifted, athletic, fast, well-coached. Bama can win this game without needing 27 points.” [17:54]
- Dentist (Listener’s pick as read by Bud): “Bama -5.5. Just not enough for Bama, especially with the revenge spot.” [19:27]
- Danny: Lock agreement with Bama: “Bama wins and wins convincingly. Ty Simpson is not Joey Aguilar. Bama’s offense will put up numbers.” [20:13]
- Tom: “Oklahoma-Bama under 46.5. Alabama’s offense hasn’t exactly been lights out in conference play—extremely one-handed and can’t run.” [21:00]
Texas vs. Georgia
[22:33–26:10]
- Tom: “First half under 23.5. Texas barely scores in the first half; Georgia’s been slow starters. Feels so obvious I’m sure it’ll lose.” (Laughter) [22:33]
- Chip: “I’m right there with you at 23.5.” [23:06]
- Chip: “Georgia, third quarter -0.5. Don’t boost it to the moon. Give me 15 good minutes.” [24:30]
- Danny: “Give me the under 48.5. Georgia’s storyline is their inability to rush the passer. Think it’s a lower scoring game; Gunner Stockton comes in, but not enough to hit the over.” [24:57]
Other Noteworthy LOCKS & Picks
See [30:30–65:21] for the full extended pick rundown. Highlights below.
- Tennessee vs. New Mexico State:
- Bud & Chip: Tennessee -39 or -39.5
- “Tennessee gets their numbers up... this is a name-your-number spot. Hypol likes to name the number pretty high.” [30:41]
- New Mexico vs. Colorado State:
- Tom, Bud: New Mexico -14
- "Colorado State's done, they don't want to be there" [32:10]
- Georgia Tech at Boston College:
- Chip: 1H Under 30.5;
- Danny: BC +16.5 ("don't trust anyone to win by that much on the road in the ACC") [34:37]
- Florida at Ole Miss:
- Danny: UNDER 54.5 ("I don't expect much out of Florida");
- Bud (multiple): Ole Miss -14; 1H Team Total OVER 17.5 [36:31]
- BYU vs. TCU:
- Chip: BYU -4.5 ("if you need to have a great bounce back, this is a bad opponent in a bad place") [39:42]
- Wake Forest vs. UNC:
- Chip: Wake Team Total UNDER 22.5
- Tom: Game UNDER 38.5 ("Not pushing this thing down the field... running the football, screen passes, crossers. This is Argyle Iowa.") [41:26]
- Bud: UNC +6 ("one of the few I actually liked") [42:52]
- Miami vs. NC State:
- Danny: Miami -14.5 (“they found a new lease on life—culturally, they’re in a better spot”) [44:13]
- San Diego State vs. Boise State:
- Chip: SDSU -2.5 ("I wonder if we still have not downgraded Boise enough") [45:41]
- UCF at Texas Tech:
- Chip: Under 48.5
- Coastal at Georgia Southern:
- Tom: Coastal +3
- James Madison vs. Appalachian State:
- Tom: JMU team total OVER 37.5 ("they have to score a whole hell of a lot for the playoff spot") [53:33]
- More:
- Bud: South Carolina +19.5, Purdue +17, Duke -4, Tulsa +3, Arizona/Cincinnati UNDER 56.5
- Danny: Oregon-Minnesota UNDER 44.5, Iowa +7, Alabama -5.5, Texas-Georgia UNDER 48.5, Boston College +16.5, Michigan-Northwestern UNDER 41.5, Wisconsin +29.5, UCLA +32
- Tom: Texas Tech -23.5, Notre Dame -11.5, UNC/Wake UNDER 38.5
Notable Moment:
- The crew pokes fun at the number of picks:
- Chip: "You said you hated the board and you got 12 locks, Bud."
- Bud: "Imagine if I loved it." [73:17]
Choice Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Danny (on betting all Top 25 games): “Spray them all!” [04:29]
- Bud: “If you need to have a great bounce back, this is a bad opponent in a bad place to try to get it.” [39:42]
- Tom (about UNC football): “They move very slow, limit possessions, give their defense a chance to keep them in games and win games. This is classic North Carolina football.” [41:26]
- Chip (on North Carolina’s style): “We spent years cooking Brian Ferentz and the drive to 325. We should not be surprised that Bill has created Iowa in Chapel Hill.” [42:23]
- Danny (on Rich Rod): “He’s tired of his team trying to go out there and look like Angel Reese… It’s full boomer and I love it.” [61:20]
Moneyline Sprinkles
[65:54–73:17]
The crew gives value pick straight-up underdogs ("sprinkles") for big payouts:
- Bud: Texas State +164, Arkansas +185, Virginia +460, Boston College +630
- Chip: Virginia Tech +460, Baylor +260, NC State +550, UNC +200, Utah State +209
- Danny: Clemson +125, Baylor +260, Navy +320, Pitt +390
- Tom: Navy +320, Northwestern +400, Tulsa +125, NC State +550, Coastal +125
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Recap & Season Records: 00:49–05:30
- LOCKS Start: 05:46
- Notre Dame–Pitt: 11:38–14:43
- USC–Iowa: 15:29–17:09
- Alabama–Oklahoma: 17:49–21:48
- Texas–Georgia: 22:33–26:10
- Mid-Card/Early Saturday Picks: 30:30–41:26
- ACC/SEC/Group of Five Highlights: 41:26–53:33
- Sun Belt, Sicko Mode & Deep Cuts: 53:33–58:51
- Moneyline Sprinkles: 65:54–73:17
Tone and Banter
The team is playful, self-deprecating, and collegial but fiercely competitive. They reference inside jokes ("Argyle Iowa"), "The Dentist" picks (an infamous listener/tweeter), and stew over both bad beats and wild locks. The podcast is rich in statistical analysis but equally focused on the cultural and narrative side of college football.
Bottom line: This LOCKS episode is a comprehensive, rapid-fire hour filled with sharp analysis, creativity in bet types, real-time odds shopping, hilarious asides, and high-energy back-and-forth on the country’s best CFB action.