Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: "Week 13 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | USC-Oregon | Missouri-Oklahoma & MORE"
Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

The Cover 3 crew dives into their favorite bets, odds, and picks for Week 13 in college football, featuring in-depth discussions on major games like USC-Oregon, Missouri-Oklahoma, and more. The panel reviews last week’s picks, shares new locks, highlights upset potential with Moneyline sprinkles, and brings a wealth of insight rooted in both data and “football guy” intuition. The episode retains the show’s energetic, irreverent, and deeply analytical tone, targeting both experienced bettors and dedicated college football fans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 12 Review & Accountability

(03:19–07:15)

Breakdown of last week’s lock results, with all panelists posting .500-ish records and plenty of reflection on tough beats and bad luck.
- Bud Elliott: 4–8 (“Just not good enough… Gotta do better.”) [04:00]
- Chip Patterson: 6–6, highlights “the life we live playing that game” with close losses. [04:13]
- Danny Kanell: 5–5, calls it “a crappy week moving money around.” [05:55]
- Tom Fornelli: 5–5, “There’s really not a pick I made that I didn’t really like… what are you going to do?” [06:51]

Notable Quotes

“Just pushing the money around and tipping the dealer over here for me.” – Chip Patterson [04:13]
“The game was disgusting.” – Danny Kanell on Michigan-Northwestern under [05:55]

2. Friday Early Locks

(10:00–12:41)

Florida State at NC State: Danny locks FSU -4.5, hoping for a birthday win despite knowing FSU’s poor ATS road record.
- “They can’t lose on my birthday.” – Danny Kanell [11:44]
- Bud and Tom express skepticism; Tom jokes, “He loves them” at Dave Doeren’s lack of enthusiasm for birthdays [11:50]
UNLV vs Hawaii: UNLV -2.5 locked by Danny, citing Hawaii’s struggles away from home.

3. Game-by-Game Deep Dive & Locks

Missouri vs Oklahoma

(13:39–17:38)

Bud: Leans Missouri +8 due to Sooners’ offensive struggles; questions whether Oklahoma’s defense is best in the SEC while their offense might be the worst.
- “Oklahoma’s offense is bad enough that they can… any SEC game for them is losable. Like, you have 200 yards against Alabama…” – Bud Elliott [14:24]
Chip: Locks under 42, anticipating a defensive slugfest. Tom agrees, lock agreement on under 42.5.
- “I don’t expect Missouri to score much against this defense… pretty simple.” – Tom Fornelli [17:08]

USC vs Oregon

(17:38–23:09)

Stakes: Huge College Football Playoff implication (an 87% swing in odds for USC with win/loss).
Tom: Locks under 59.5, highlighting Oregon’s elite defense and USC’s offensive road woes.
Bud: Takes USC +10.5, likes their passing attack to score enough.
Danny: Oregon -9.5, likes Ducks at home and targeting fast start.
Chip: Oregon 1st half -5.5, wary of USC’s “second half team” reputation.

Arkansas at Texas

(23:45–28:31)

Danny: Over 57.5; expects high-scoring due to Arkansas D’s ineptitude and Texas’s offensive bounce-back.
Tom: Arkansas +9.5, with favorite stat of the year – “Arkansas is 2–8 with a point differential of +18… includes a 43-point loss to Notre Dame!” [24:43]
Chip: Agrees, takes Arkansas; discusses “F.U. game” potential for Texas and Sarkisian’s heated response to job rumors.

Pitt vs Georgia Tech

(29:07–29:59)

Bud: Pitt +2.5. “I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams.” [29:10]
Danny: Expects a good atmosphere; others steer clear, not trusting either team.

BYU at Cincinnati

(30:14–31:35)

Tom: Over 54.5
Bud: Under 56, lock fight! (“I do think BYU probably runs the ball a lot here… clock isn’t stopping a whole lot.”)

4. Additional Picks, Side Action & Sicko Specials

(33:26–56:06)

Charlotte +44.5 at Georgia, and under 54. (“Given 44-point leads are very difficult to blow.” – Chip [34:56])
Mercer +28 at Auburn. “Mercer Bears are 9–1… not a nobody.” – Chip [37:50]
Cal -2.5 vs Stanford. “I just think it's a better football team than Stanford is.” – Bud [39:13]
Montana +1.5 vs Montana State in the “Brawl of the Wild” (FCS spotlight) [42:39]

5. Totals and Team Totals

Notre Dame 1st half team total over 23.5 vs Syracuse (Chip).
Minnesota-Northwestern under 40.5 (Tom).
SMU -2.5 vs Louisville, Texas A&M–Samford under 59.5.
Tulane-Temple over 55.5 (Chip).

6. Family & Guest Locks

(49:04–49:56)

Tom’s wife appears on-mic with Utah -17.5; panel immediately joins in lock agreement and bit.

Moneyline Sprinkles: Upset Specials

(59:12–64:23)

Bud:
- NC State +180
- Colorado State +600 vs Boise State
- Ball State +2400 at Toledo (“Bankroll to fade… hypothetically”)
Danny:
- Kentucky +300 at Vanderbilt
- FAU +240
- Cincinnati +125
- Wisconsin +260 at Illinois
Tom:
- Maryland +460 at Michigan (“Michigan has been bad on the road all season.”)
- Georgia Southern +375
- Pitt +120
- Stanford +135
- Sam Houston +210
Chip:
- Cincinnati +125
- Pitt +120
- NC State +180
- Maryland +460
- Florida +1700 (“Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the Gators keep the streak alive…”)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Betting the Service Academy Under:
“Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 49 and 1.” – Tom Fornelli [07:30]
On Arkansas’s Bizarre Record:
“Arkansas is 2–8 with a point differential of +18… It includes a 43 point loss to Notre Dame. In this century, tied for the most losses of three points or less in a season.” – Tom Fornelli [24:43]
On Split-Second Decisions:
“He’s not ready to pick. He likes Rush more than he’s ready to start pledging.” – Chip, on Lane Kiffin’s job search [48:12]

Timestamps for Key Segments

00:57 – Intro, community engagement, Splash Sports contest
03:19 – Week 12 picks review and records
07:30 – Early Week 13 locks begin
13:39 – Missouri-Oklahoma analysis and locks
17:38 – USC-Oregon breakdown and picks
23:45 – Arkansas-Texas discussion, locks, rivalry
29:07 – Pitt-Georgia Tech insights and picks
30:14 – BYU-Cincinnati lock fight
34:16 – Conference/underdog specials (Charlotte, Mercer, Montana)
39:07 – Cal-Stanford (Big Game pick)
49:04 – Utah lock from Tom’s wife (humorous segment)
59:12 – Moneyline Sprinkle segment
66:21 – Off-the-board leans and closing thoughts

Summary Table of Key Picks

| Host | Top Locks | Notable Sprinkles | |----------------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | Bud Elliott | Missouri +8, USC +10.5, Pitt +2.5, BYU/Cin U56 | NC State +180, Colorado State +600, Ball State +2400 | | Chip Patterson | Mizzou/OU U42.5, Arkansas +9.5, Oregon 1H -5.5 | Cincinnati +125, Pitt +120, NC State +180, Maryland +460, Florida +1700 | | Danny Kanell | FSU -4.5, Oregon -9.5, UNLV -2.5, Ark/Tex O57.5 | Kentucky +300, FAU +240, Cincinnati +125, Wisconsin +260 | | Tom Fornelli | Mizzou/OU U42.5, USC/Oregon U59.5, Ark +9.5 | Maryland +460, Georgia Southern +375, Pitt +120, Stanford +135, Sam Houston +210 |

Natural Flow & Personality

The episode is a blend of sharp handicapping, college football nerdery, and locker-room banter, punctuated by several recurring bits:

Regular “lock fights” when hosts disagree
Emphasis on emotional, motivational, and sometimes “sicko” intangibles in analysis
Tongue-in-cheek commentary on coaches’ job rumors, college football atmospheres, and the chaos of November football

For First-Time Listeners/Newcomers

This episode showcases the Cover 3 Podcast’s hallmarks:

Thorough card reviews: Each panelist details recent records, own strengths/weaknesses, and rationale for new bets.
Big game focus with under-the-radar angles: High-stakes games get layered analysis, but small-conference and FCS matchups receive respect too.
Interactive energy, jokes, and wagering “culture.”
Upset speculation: Moneyline sprinkles segment provides bold, high-upside underdog picks.

Recommended Listening Moments

[07:30] Service academy under angle, classic betting wisdom.
[11:44] Danny Kanell’s impassioned, superstitious FSU birthday lock.
[17:02] Lock agreement, Missouri-Oklahoma under.
[19:55] Tom’s simulation-skeptic commentary on Playoff odds math.
[24:43] Tom’s in-depth stat on Arkansas’s unprecedented close-losses.
[49:04] Comedic highlight: Tom’s wife bringing the Utah lock.
[59:12] Begin Moneyline Sprinkles – panel’s favorite upset picks.

For full analysis, betting picks, and panel banter, listen to the episode for deep-dive rationales and plenty of college football flavor!

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 12 Review & Accountability

(03:19–07:15)

Breakdown of last week’s lock results, with all panelists posting .500-ish records and plenty of reflection on tough beats and bad luck.
- Bud Elliott: 4–8 (“Just not good enough… Gotta do better.”) [04:00]
- Chip Patterson: 6–6, highlights “the life we live playing that game” with close losses. [04:13]
- Danny Kanell: 5–5, calls it “a crappy week moving money around.” [05:55]
- Tom Fornelli: 5–5, “There’s really not a pick I made that I didn’t really like… what are you going to do?” [06:51]

Notable Quotes

“Just pushing the money around and tipping the dealer over here for me.” – Chip Patterson [04:13]
“The game was disgusting.” – Danny Kanell on Michigan-Northwestern under [05:55]

2. Friday Early Locks

(10:00–12:41)

Florida State at NC State: Danny locks FSU -4.5, hoping for a birthday win despite knowing FSU’s poor ATS road record.
- “They can’t lose on my birthday.” – Danny Kanell [11:44]
- Bud and Tom express skepticism; Tom jokes, “He loves them” at Dave Doeren’s lack of enthusiasm for birthdays [11:50]
UNLV vs Hawaii: UNLV -2.5 locked by Danny, citing Hawaii’s struggles away from home.

3. Game-by-Game Deep Dive & Locks

Missouri vs Oklahoma

(13:39–17:38)

Bud: Leans Missouri +8 due to Sooners’ offensive struggles; questions whether Oklahoma’s defense is best in the SEC while their offense might be the worst.
- “Oklahoma’s offense is bad enough that they can… any SEC game for them is losable. Like, you have 200 yards against Alabama…” – Bud Elliott [14:24]
Chip: Locks under 42, anticipating a defensive slugfest. Tom agrees, lock agreement on under 42.5.
- “I don’t expect Missouri to score much against this defense… pretty simple.” – Tom Fornelli [17:08]

USC vs Oregon

(17:38–23:09)

Stakes: Huge College Football Playoff implication (an 87% swing in odds for USC with win/loss).
Tom: Locks under 59.5, highlighting Oregon’s elite defense and USC’s offensive road woes.
Bud: Takes USC +10.5, likes their passing attack to score enough.
Danny: Oregon -9.5, likes Ducks at home and targeting fast start.
Chip: Oregon 1st half -5.5, wary of USC’s “second half team” reputation.

Arkansas at Texas

(23:45–28:31)

Danny: Over 57.5; expects high-scoring due to Arkansas D’s ineptitude and Texas’s offensive bounce-back.
Tom: Arkansas +9.5, with favorite stat of the year – “Arkansas is 2–8 with a point differential of +18… includes a 43-point loss to Notre Dame!” [24:43]
Chip: Agrees, takes Arkansas; discusses “F.U. game” potential for Texas and Sarkisian’s heated response to job rumors.

Pitt vs Georgia Tech

(29:07–29:59)

Bud: Pitt +2.5. “I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams.” [29:10]
Danny: Expects a good atmosphere; others steer clear, not trusting either team.

BYU at Cincinnati

(30:14–31:35)

Tom: Over 54.5
Bud: Under 56, lock fight! (“I do think BYU probably runs the ball a lot here… clock isn’t stopping a whole lot.”)

4. Additional Picks, Side Action & Sicko Specials

(33:26–56:06)

Charlotte +44.5 at Georgia, and under 54. (“Given 44-point leads are very difficult to blow.” – Chip [34:56])
Mercer +28 at Auburn. “Mercer Bears are 9–1… not a nobody.” – Chip [37:50]
Cal -2.5 vs Stanford. “I just think it's a better football team than Stanford is.” – Bud [39:13]
Montana +1.5 vs Montana State in the “Brawl of the Wild” (FCS spotlight) [42:39]

5. Totals and Team Totals

Notre Dame 1st half team total over 23.5 vs Syracuse (Chip).
Minnesota-Northwestern under 40.5 (Tom).
SMU -2.5 vs Louisville, Texas A&M–Samford under 59.5.
Tulane-Temple over 55.5 (Chip).

6. Family & Guest Locks

(49:04–49:56)

Tom’s wife appears on-mic with Utah -17.5; panel immediately joins in lock agreement and bit.

Moneyline Sprinkles: Upset Specials

(59:12–64:23)

Bud:
- NC State +180
- Colorado State +600 vs Boise State
- Ball State +2400 at Toledo (“Bankroll to fade… hypothetically”)
Danny:
- Kentucky +300 at Vanderbilt
- FAU +240
- Cincinnati +125
- Wisconsin +260 at Illinois
Tom:
- Maryland +460 at Michigan (“Michigan has been bad on the road all season.”)
- Georgia Southern +375
- Pitt +120
- Stanford +135
- Sam Houston +210
Chip:
- Cincinnati +125
- Pitt +120
- NC State +180
- Maryland +460
- Florida +1700 (“Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the Gators keep the streak alive…”)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Betting the Service Academy Under:
“Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 49 and 1.” – Tom Fornelli [07:30]
On Arkansas’s Bizarre Record:
“Arkansas is 2–8 with a point differential of +18… It includes a 43 point loss to Notre Dame. In this century, tied for the most losses of three points or less in a season.” – Tom Fornelli [24:43]
On Split-Second Decisions:
“He’s not ready to pick. He likes Rush more than he’s ready to start pledging.” – Chip, on Lane Kiffin’s job search [48:12]

Timestamps for Key Segments

00:57 – Intro, community engagement, Splash Sports contest
03:19 – Week 12 picks review and records
07:30 – Early Week 13 locks begin
13:39 – Missouri-Oklahoma analysis and locks
17:38 – USC-Oregon breakdown and picks
23:45 – Arkansas-Texas discussion, locks, rivalry
29:07 – Pitt-Georgia Tech insights and picks
30:14 – BYU-Cincinnati lock fight
34:16 – Conference/underdog specials (Charlotte, Mercer, Montana)
39:07 – Cal-Stanford (Big Game pick)
49:04 – Utah lock from Tom’s wife (humorous segment)
59:12 – Moneyline Sprinkle segment
66:21 – Off-the-board leans and closing thoughts

Summary Table of Key Picks

Natural Flow & Personality

The episode is a blend of sharp handicapping, college football nerdery, and locker-room banter, punctuated by several recurring bits:

Regular “lock fights” when hosts disagree
Emphasis on emotional, motivational, and sometimes “sicko” intangibles in analysis
Tongue-in-cheek commentary on coaches’ job rumors, college football atmospheres, and the chaos of November football

For First-Time Listeners/Newcomers

This episode showcases the Cover 3 Podcast’s hallmarks:

Thorough card reviews: Each panelist details recent records, own strengths/weaknesses, and rationale for new bets.
Big game focus with under-the-radar angles: High-stakes games get layered analysis, but small-conference and FCS matchups receive respect too.
Interactive energy, jokes, and wagering “culture.”
Upset speculation: Moneyline sprinkles segment provides bold, high-upside underdog picks.

Recommended Listening Moments

[07:30] Service academy under angle, classic betting wisdom.
[11:44] Danny Kanell’s impassioned, superstitious FSU birthday lock.
[17:02] Lock agreement, Missouri-Oklahoma under.
[19:55] Tom’s simulation-skeptic commentary on Playoff odds math.
[24:43] Tom’s in-depth stat on Arkansas’s unprecedented close-losses.
[49:04] Comedic highlight: Tom’s wife bringing the Utah lock.
[59:12] Begin Moneyline Sprinkles – panel’s favorite upset picks.

For full analysis, betting picks, and panel banter, listen to the episode for deep-dive rationales and plenty of college football flavor!

Week 13 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | USC-Oregon | Missouri-Oklahoma & MORE

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Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 12 Review & Accountability

Notable Quotes

2. Friday Early Locks

3. Game-by-Game Deep Dive & Locks

Missouri vs Oklahoma

USC vs Oregon

Arkansas at Texas

Pitt vs Georgia Tech

BYU at Cincinnati

4. Additional Picks, Side Action & Sicko Specials

5. Totals and Team Totals

6. Family & Guest Locks

Moneyline Sprinkles: Upset Specials

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Summary Table of Key Picks

Natural Flow & Personality

For First-Time Listeners/Newcomers

Recommended Listening Moments

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 12 Review & Accountability

Notable Quotes

2. Friday Early Locks

3. Game-by-Game Deep Dive & Locks

Missouri vs Oklahoma

USC vs Oregon

Arkansas at Texas

Pitt vs Georgia Tech

BYU at Cincinnati

4. Additional Picks, Side Action & Sicko Specials

5. Totals and Team Totals

6. Family & Guest Locks

Moneyline Sprinkles: Upset Specials

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Summary Table of Key Picks

Natural Flow & Personality

For First-Time Listeners/Newcomers

Recommended Listening Moments