Week 13 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | USC-Oregon | Missouri-Oklahoma & MORE

Summary

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Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: "Week 13 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | USC-Oregon | Missouri-Oklahoma & MORE"
Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Episode Overview

The Cover 3 crew dives into their favorite bets, odds, and picks for Week 13 in college football, featuring in-depth discussions on major games like USC-Oregon, Missouri-Oklahoma, and more. The panel reviews last week’s picks, shares new locks, highlights upset potential with Moneyline sprinkles, and brings a wealth of insight rooted in both data and “football guy” intuition. The episode retains the show’s energetic, irreverent, and deeply analytical tone, targeting both experienced bettors and dedicated college football fans.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 12 Review & Accountability

(03:19–07:15)

• Breakdown of last week’s lock results, with all panelists posting .500-ish records and plenty of reflection on tough beats and bad luck.
  • Bud Elliott: 4–8 (“Just not good enough… Gotta do better.”) [04:00]
  • Chip Patterson: 6–6, highlights “the life we live playing that game” with close losses. [04:13]
  • Danny Kanell: 5–5, calls it “a crappy week moving money around.” [05:55]
  • Tom Fornelli: 5–5, “There’s really not a pick I made that I didn’t really like… what are you going to do?” [06:51]

Notable Quotes

• “Just pushing the money around and tipping the dealer over here for me.” – Chip Patterson [04:13]
• “The game was disgusting.” – Danny Kanell on Michigan-Northwestern under [05:55]

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2. Friday Early Locks

(10:00–12:41)

• Florida State at NC State: Danny locks FSU -4.5, hoping for a birthday win despite knowing FSU’s poor ATS road record.
  • “They can’t lose on my birthday.” – Danny Kanell [11:44]
  • Bud and Tom express skepticism; Tom jokes, “He loves them” at Dave Doeren’s lack of enthusiasm for birthdays [11:50]
• UNLV vs Hawaii: UNLV -2.5 locked by Danny, citing Hawaii’s struggles away from home.

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3. Game-by-Game Deep Dive & Locks

Missouri vs Oklahoma

(13:39–17:38)

• Bud: Leans Missouri +8 due to Sooners’ offensive struggles; questions whether Oklahoma’s defense is best in the SEC while their offense might be the worst.
  • “Oklahoma’s offense is bad enough that they can… any SEC game for them is losable. Like, you have 200 yards against Alabama…” – Bud Elliott [14:24]
• Chip: Locks under 42, anticipating a defensive slugfest. Tom agrees, lock agreement on under 42.5.
  • “I don’t expect Missouri to score much against this defense… pretty simple.” – Tom Fornelli [17:08]

USC vs Oregon

(17:38–23:09)

• Stakes: Huge College Football Playoff implication (an 87% swing in odds for USC with win/loss).
• Tom: Locks under 59.5, highlighting Oregon’s elite defense and USC’s offensive road woes.
• Bud: Takes USC +10.5, likes their passing attack to score enough.
• Danny: Oregon -9.5, likes Ducks at home and targeting fast start.
• Chip: Oregon 1st half -5.5, wary of USC’s “second half team” reputation.

Arkansas at Texas

(23:45–28:31)

• Danny: Over 57.5; expects high-scoring due to Arkansas D’s ineptitude and Texas’s offensive bounce-back.
• Tom: Arkansas +9.5, with favorite stat of the year – “Arkansas is 2–8 with a point differential of +18… includes a 43-point loss to Notre Dame!” [24:43]
• Chip: Agrees, takes Arkansas; discusses “F.U. game” potential for Texas and Sarkisian’s heated response to job rumors.

Pitt vs Georgia Tech

(29:07–29:59)

• Bud: Pitt +2.5. “I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams.” [29:10]
• Danny: Expects a good atmosphere; others steer clear, not trusting either team.

BYU at Cincinnati

(30:14–31:35)

• Tom: Over 54.5
• Bud: Under 56, lock fight! (“I do think BYU probably runs the ball a lot here… clock isn’t stopping a whole lot.”)

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4. Additional Picks, Side Action & Sicko Specials

(33:26–56:06)

• Charlotte +44.5 at Georgia, and under 54. (“Given 44-point leads are very difficult to blow.” – Chip [34:56])
• Mercer +28 at Auburn. “Mercer Bears are 9–1… not a nobody.” – Chip [37:50]
• Cal -2.5 vs Stanford. “I just think it's a better football team than Stanford is.” – Bud [39:13]
• Montana +1.5 vs Montana State in the “Brawl of the Wild” (FCS spotlight) [42:39]

5. Totals and Team Totals

• Notre Dame 1st half team total over 23.5 vs Syracuse (Chip).
• Minnesota-Northwestern under 40.5 (Tom).
• SMU -2.5 vs Louisville, Texas A&M–Samford under 59.5.
• Tulane-Temple over 55.5 (Chip).

6. Family & Guest Locks

(49:04–49:56)

• Tom’s wife appears on-mic with Utah -17.5; panel immediately joins in lock agreement and bit.

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Moneyline Sprinkles: Upset Specials

(59:12–64:23)

• Bud:
  • NC State +180
  • Colorado State +600 vs Boise State
  • Ball State +2400 at Toledo (“Bankroll to fade… hypothetically”)
• Danny:
  • Kentucky +300 at Vanderbilt
  • FAU +240
  • Cincinnati +125
  • Wisconsin +260 at Illinois
• Tom:
  • Maryland +460 at Michigan (“Michigan has been bad on the road all season.”)
  • Georgia Southern +375
  • Pitt +120
  • Stanford +135
  • Sam Houston +210
• Chip:
  • Cincinnati +125
  • Pitt +120
  • NC State +180
  • Maryland +460
  • Florida +1700 (“Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the Gators keep the streak alive…”)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Betting the Service Academy Under:
  “Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 49 and 1.” – Tom Fornelli [07:30]
• On Arkansas’s Bizarre Record:
  “Arkansas is 2–8 with a point differential of +18… It includes a 43 point loss to Notre Dame. In this century, tied for the most losses of three points or less in a season.” – Tom Fornelli [24:43]
• On Split-Second Decisions:
  “He’s not ready to pick. He likes Rush more than he’s ready to start pledging.” – Chip, on Lane Kiffin’s job search [48:12]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:57 – Intro, community engagement, Splash Sports contest
• 03:19 – Week 12 picks review and records
• 07:30 – Early Week 13 locks begin
• 13:39 – Missouri-Oklahoma analysis and locks
• 17:38 – USC-Oregon breakdown and picks
• 23:45 – Arkansas-Texas discussion, locks, rivalry
• 29:07 – Pitt-Georgia Tech insights and picks
• 30:14 – BYU-Cincinnati lock fight
• 34:16 – Conference/underdog specials (Charlotte, Mercer, Montana)
• 39:07 – Cal-Stanford (Big Game pick)
• 49:04 – Utah lock from Tom’s wife (humorous segment)
• 59:12 – Moneyline Sprinkle segment
• 66:21 – Off-the-board leans and closing thoughts

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Summary Table of Key Picks

| Host | Top Locks | Notable Sprinkles | |----------------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | Bud Elliott | Missouri +8, USC +10.5, Pitt +2.5, BYU/Cin U56 | NC State +180, Colorado State +600, Ball State +2400 | | Chip Patterson | Mizzou/OU U42.5, Arkansas +9.5, Oregon 1H -5.5 | Cincinnati +125, Pitt +120, NC State +180, Maryland +460, Florida +1700 | | Danny Kanell | FSU -4.5, Oregon -9.5, UNLV -2.5, Ark/Tex O57.5 | Kentucky +300, FAU +240, Cincinnati +125, Wisconsin +260 | | Tom Fornelli | Mizzou/OU U42.5, USC/Oregon U59.5, Ark +9.5 | Maryland +460, Georgia Southern +375, Pitt +120, Stanford +135, Sam Houston +210 |

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Natural Flow & Personality

The episode is a blend of sharp handicapping, college football nerdery, and locker-room banter, punctuated by several recurring bits:

• Regular “lock fights” when hosts disagree
• Emphasis on emotional, motivational, and sometimes “sicko” intangibles in analysis
• Tongue-in-cheek commentary on coaches’ job rumors, college football atmospheres, and the chaos of November football

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For First-Time Listeners/Newcomers

This episode showcases the Cover 3 Podcast’s hallmarks:

• Thorough card reviews: Each panelist details recent records, own strengths/weaknesses, and rationale for new bets.
• Big game focus with under-the-radar angles: High-stakes games get layered analysis, but small-conference and FCS matchups receive respect too.
• Interactive energy, jokes, and wagering “culture.”
• Upset speculation: Moneyline sprinkles segment provides bold, high-upside underdog picks.

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Recommended Listening Moments

• [07:30] Service academy under angle, classic betting wisdom.
• [11:44] Danny Kanell’s impassioned, superstitious FSU birthday lock.
• [17:02] Lock agreement, Missouri-Oklahoma under.
• [19:55] Tom’s simulation-skeptic commentary on Playoff odds math.
• [24:43] Tom’s in-depth stat on Arkansas’s unprecedented close-losses.
• [49:04] Comedic highlight: Tom’s wife bringing the Utah lock.
• [59:12] Begin Moneyline Sprinkles – panel’s favorite upset picks.

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For full analysis, betting picks, and panel banter, listen to the episode for deep-dive rationales and plenty of college football flavor!

Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

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[Chip Patterson]

Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast.

[Tom Fornelli]

With your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli.

[Danny Canal]

Danny Cannel and Bud Elliott.

[Chip Patterson]

It's your call for the best college.

[Bud Elliott]

Football coverage from national signing day to.

[Chip Patterson]

The national championship and everything in between.

[Tom Fornelli]

CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Frinelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate. They're asking for wind checks in Laramie. They're asking for North Texas team total picks. They're asking for our week 13 locks. Lots to get to here as we roll out our card. But before we look back, we gotta remind you that we are gonna keep it going with our friends at Splash Sports. Yes, week 13 is here and we've got $1,000 in splash cash up for grabs in our free Pick Them contest. No entry fee, real prizes and bragging rights on the line. Let's break down how this works. You pick 10 college football games against the spread for week 13. And then as we've done with our friends at Splash, you get one of those picks that's worth double the points if you nail it. The best pick strategy is huge. Are you going to go with chalk with the heavy favorite or do you get bold with a dog? It's all about confidence and it's all about managing that risk versus reward. The top prize. Again, this is just week 13. If you joined us in week 12 then this is a totally new contest, so if you missed it, chance to get in. If you want it, well, then get in. Try to win it again. Top prize, $250 in splash cash. And we're paying out the top 50 finishers, so you don't even have to be perfect or lead the way. That's $1,000 in total prizes we are giving away thanks to our friends at Splash. Head to splash sports.com cover3 completely free to enter. Make your picks join the cover3 community. Let's see who's got the sharpest eye. Well, might need to check our eyesight after this one, boys. Let's call up the COVID three locks results from week 12. Week 12 it was a 4 and 8. Week 4 Bud Elliott. The wins were South Carolina minus 19 and a half. Washington State first half minus 4. Tulsa plus 3. Arizona, Cincinnati under 56 and a half. The losses were Troy plus 10 and a half. Tennessee minus 39. Notre Dame pit over 55. New Mexico minus 14 North Carolina plus 6 and a half. Purdue plus 17 Duke minus 4 Sam Houston team total under 23 and a half. Bud, notes from the week.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, just. Just not good enough. Right. Sorry about the lighting situation here. Yeah, I'm trying to figure out. All right, we're down here taping something. Not obviously in this room, but yeah, just. Just not good enough. Gotta do better.

[Chip Patterson]

4 and 8 for the week has Bud at 62 and 62 for the season. Just pushing the money around and tipping the dealer over here for me. Six and six week. The wins were Notre Dame team total over 33 and a half. The Texas Georgia first half under 23 and a half. Alabama team total under 26 and a half. The Georgia Tech, Boston College first half under 30 and a half. BYU minus four and a half San Diego State minus two and a half. The losses, however, Tennessee minus 39, Georgia third quarter. Come on, you score right at the beginning of the fourth. Almost had it. That's the life we live playing that game. Duke -4 does not come home. Neither does Wake. Team total under 22 and a half as Jake Dickert decides he wants to rub it in Bill Belichick's face for calling a timeout. Come on, man, Neil like a gentleman. Anyway, Central Florida and Texas Tech under 48 and a half. Texas Tech did their fair share to take care of that and Arizona State nearly blew it outright, but wins outright hangs on. They do not cover ten and a half, though. Six and six for the week has me at 68 and 61 for the season. Danny Canal five and five week for you. You get a lock fight win with Iowa plus seven. Also cashing in on Texas. Georgia under 48 and a half. Boston College plus 16 and a half. Miami minus 14 and a half. Wisconsin plus 29 and a half. Took a loss with the under 44 and a half in Oregon. Minnesota on Friday night. Alabama minus five and a half. The Florida Ole Miss under 54 and a half. Michigan, Northwestern under 41 and a half and UCLA plus 32. What do we think?

[Danny Canal]

Just a crappy week moving money around like you said. I did not know Nico wasn't playing on that would mean much of a difference. Fading Ohio State, the Michigan, Northwestern under. I would still take that again. That game was disgusting. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey, listen, we just. Just remember. Is it just top 25 picks this week, Danny?

[Danny Canal]

I don't know. I might go off the board this week.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, there we go. Discipline. Danny out the window. And then Tom Fornelli. It was a five and five week for you. Now the wins were Texas, Georgia, first half under 23 and a half. Notre Dame minus 11 and a half. Oklahoma, Alabama under 46 and a half. Texas Tech minus 23 and a half and James Madison team total over 37 and a half. Losses. Minnesota team total under eight and a half. USC minus six and a half. New Mexico minus 14. North Carolina, Wake Forest under 38 and a half and Coastal plus three. What do we think?

[Tom Fornelli]

There's really not a pick that I made that I didn't really like. I mean, maybe the USC one I would reconsider. But other than that, like, I mean, New Mexico -14, they turned the ball over five times. Like, I can't really go for that. Minnesota does not hit their over. If not for a turnover from Oregon. And then you, as you mentioned, the under in UNC Wake due to the Belichick Dicker shenanigans at the end of the game. So that was, you know, what are you going to do?

[Chip Patterson]

What are you going to do? 5 and 5 for the week has Tom at 57 and 51 for the season. All right, let's get that out of here. Let's turn our attention ahead. I say to you, gentlemen, y' all ready to lock it up? Let's do it.

[Tom Fornelli]

Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 49 and 1.

[Danny Canal]

Give me an over in this one as well. A little two for one special.

[Bud Elliott]

I was a sicko last week. Y' all were watching the good games. I was live betting the Hell out of Uln, Kentucky.

[Chip Patterson]

My blue plate special five star locks are coming. Five star master lock. Lock it. I'm, I'm. I'm living and dying. Every, every point, every cover. From the locking chair to your eyes and ears, a reminder that locks are sponsored all season long by Cash App. Making money moves should be easy. And that's why there's Cash app. It's fast, safe and honestly way more personalized than other apps out there. Our thanks to Cash App for sponsoring the season long locks competition and the Cash app cover three locks trophy. Yes, that is Tom Fornelli and myself currently tied for first place. But we began as we always do with them early birds. Got a little sun belt action here on a Thursday. Anybody got a lock Twitter tip?

[Tom Fornelli]

I have a Twitter tip but I'm not betting it or locking it up. Arkansas State minus two and a half. Whoa.

[Danny Canal]

Did anybody take in any of the max in last night?

[Chip Patterson]

Tom had Miami, right?

[Tom Fornelli]

Miami.

[Danny Canal]

Yeah, me and Mikey overs. He said, hey, how do you like the over? And it was 38 and a half to kick off. It was down at 31 and a half and I was like, it's just too low. We got to go over. Ended up winning them both. Thing that was kind of sad. You could hear every single thing that was said by the coaches and the fans in the crowd. Like you literally could hear individuals yelling at the field. Was pretty unique viewing experience.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny, that's action.

[Danny Canal]

In Buffalo.

[Chip Patterson]

If there's not like some debris blowing through the like camera footage. If there's not, you know, like very obviously another club event that happened to get out in the building right next to the stadium. I mean this is the true campus environment to be fair.

[Tom Fornelli]

Last week, the Ohio Miami of Ohio battle between the bricks. That was a raucous atmosphere.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

Depends on where you are.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes. Buffalo here in the 2025 season. Not exactly. It will Jonesboro be that for the raging Cajuns in a battle between somewhere around 500 Sunbelt teams. We'll see. Again, that's Louisiana at Arkansas State. No official locks from the fellas here. Then Friday a couple fun ones. Florida State going to Carter Finley Stadium. Two five and five teams at Florida State and NC State and then a very important game to see who is going to make it to the Mountain west title game. Hawaii 4 and 2 in conference play, 7 and 3 overall. They are going to be playing in Las Vegas against UNLV. 4 and 2 in conference play, 8 and 2 overall. I checked in with with our friends at Sportsline at Inside the lines, the, the scenarios here does not look like actually either of them have a great chance to get in. I was, look, I was like, what are our most likely matchups? Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, New Mexico, New Mexico, San Diego State. So I guess less important than I realized, but still, two teams that have been near the top of that conference. What's. Would anybody got a lock on either one of the Friday night games? Let's hope.

[Danny Canal]

I mean, something's got to give here because Florida State is.08 straight up and 1 and 7 against the spread away since 2024. But it is also my birthday tomorrow night.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, oh, birthday.

[Bud Elliott]

Don't do it to yourself.

[Danny Canal]

If I can make a little extra change on my birthday and break that streak, I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna. I can get four and a half too.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Canal]

I'll lay the four and a half all day. They can't lose on my birthday. And I mean, Dave Dorn, we know how he feels about birthdays.

[Tom Fornelli]

He loves them.

[Danny Canal]

He does not want to hear about that guy. He is not a big birthday guy. And I am. So I'm gonna take my Knowles.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny's out there standing up, looking at the tv. I do this for a living.

[Danny Canal]

That's right.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Danny Canal]

I'm a little worried about NC State.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Danny Canal]

I feel good about Mike Norvell.

[Chip Patterson]

I. I agree with statement one. I do not agree with statement two.

[Danny Canal]

It was a dice. I think I might be sweating in the third or fourth quarter, but I think we'll get it.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

Can't spell Norvell without Noel.

[Danny Canal]

And then I do not like the slate all day or on Saturday. But I'll take unlv. Hawaii has been great on the island, but away not so great. I'm gonna take Dan Mullen minus two and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

I like that. Anybody get a. That was. That was a deep side blood.

[Bud Elliott]

No, I, I think it's. That's kind of the way I would lean. I, I do not lean Florida State. But like, that's just.

[Danny Canal]

No, later on that one. Like, you've done everything probably.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, that's actually been really profitable just.

[Chip Patterson]

To go through and get all these other money lines on the opposite side of the Knolls.

[Bud Elliott]

Yes, absolutely.

[Chip Patterson]

Mike Michael in the tailgate noting that UNLV 1 and 3 against the spread at home. So a big something's got to give game there.

[Bud Elliott]

Not a big home field advantage.

[Chip Patterson]

And I don't know, the. It could be the early. Yeah, I was gonna Say the early suspension for a couple of Dallas Cowboys wide receivers might suggest that Las Vegas still provides the temptations that could be there. I've got but I got a couple stories about some college basketball tournaments, you know, out there in Las Vegas that have led to some interesting, you know, interesting spottings out on the casino floor. Yeah, we'll see if we'll see if Hawaii gets entangled by the temptations. All right, onto Saturday. Of course we begin with some of the the headliner games. We'll go chronologically here beginning in Norman. Oklahoma, Missouri going to take on the Sooners. We've talked a lot about this game particularly in big game breakdown. Missed you yesterday bud. Do you I'll sort of you got a lock here and even if not a lock would love to hear your thought on the way this game is priced and the way this you are leaning if you don't have a play.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. So I am interested to see is.

[Tom Fornelli]

Peru playing that's what he was doubtful on yesterday's injury report.

[Bud Elliott]

I would I would kind of expect he doesn't play. I I do think there's a chance that Missouri can pop explosive runs here just because like how much Oklahoma moves around but I don't know if they can really pass enough to to win the game. But like Oklahoma's offense is bad enough that they can like any SEC game for them is losable like legitimately like you have 200 yards against Alabama like that that's not unless they play a lot better on offense you really can't feel good about their chances of the game in my opinion. But like the defense is is that good like they have is that the worst. Let me make sure I don't say something stupid. Is that the best defense in the SEC and also the worst offense in the sec.

[Chip Patterson]

It's close.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's close. I'd still think Auburns is Yeah I.

[Chip Patterson]

Was I wrote a story about Jaden Maeva today for CBS Sports.com and I was just looking at how bad just Jade Maeva on the road is and a comp is actually what John Matiere has been for the entire season.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. It's rough.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes. Not good. So are you thinking Missouri here or is that a sprinkler you're going to take the points?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I'm taking Missouri in the eight.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. I'll I it is already a extra an extremely low number. I I'm just still gonna grab it if if Alabama and Oklahoma played a rock fight that required long special teams returns and a scoop and Score to be able to get to, you know, a. A final of. See, what were we at? 24, 45 points, right? Yeah, yeah. 41 and a half's my best number. No, 42.

[Tom Fornelli]

There's 42 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I'll take under 42 in this one. And here, you know, what's the funny thing? I don't know if y' all thought about this at all, but because of the. The margins here and Bud, what you were talking about with the potential for popping a couple of explosives. Because what I don't expect is for either of these teams to string together explosives against the other defense. A very classic play would be for me to target the first half under. But the first half under is 20 and a half. We could have 21 points in the first half and 14 after halftime. Like, I would much rather buckle in for the whole four quarters betting against multiple explosive plays rather than catching that one or two big return or big run in the first half and breaking the first half under. So I'm starting Saturday with a little hair on my chest. Boys, we're going a little under 42 in Norman.

[Tom Fornelli]

Under 42 and a half in Lock agreement.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

Tribula Zollers. I don't expect Missouri to score much against this defense. And I don't think Oklahoma's offense is really capable of doing a whole lot itself. Pretty simple.

[Bud Elliott]

Agreed.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny? Nothing.

[Danny Canal]

No, I don't have a really good beat on this game. Like, it wouldn't surprise me if Oklahoma just is so dominant. That's why probably you guys under is probably the right play. I could see Oklahoma win. I. I lean towards Oklahoma covering, but I don't love it. Yeah, I'll root for Bud.

[Chip Patterson]

Then after the noon slate, you know what time it is? Big time on CBS. We'll be out there at Austin Stadium. Eugene, Oregon for a former Pac 12 rivalry, now one of the premier Big Ten rivalries, USC coming to town. Two losses on the season. College Football Playoff hopes still alive. Oregon 91 on the season. College Football Playoff hopes very much alive and strong. It is a do or die game for the USC Trojans. Again, reaching out to our friends at inside the lines. Currently, USC with a 22.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff with the win, they take that up to 89. With a loss, you're down to 2. The 87% swing in your odds to make the College Football Playoff is the biggest swing of any College Football Playoff contender. So it's a gotta have it game for the Trojans and For Oregon, you do not want to pick up that second loss and put yourself in one of those difficult debates. So Ducks plenty to play for as well. We have broken down this game multiple times this week. So now no more matchup stuff. All I want to know is who's got a luck.

[Tom Fornelli]

I do. But I also have a question.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

How do you simulate the chances to make the playoff?

[Chip Patterson]

That's a numbers. Why are you asking Chip about math. I'm just.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't understand. I don't understand the math. It's not a. There's not a mathematical equation to qualify for the playoffs. How can you use math to come up with a chance to get in? I will say I am taking locking up the under 59 and a half. I just. I We talked about it during the big game breakdowns for this game this week. I we. USC's offense has struggled a lot on the road compared to how they play at home. Oregon's defense is the best in the country at limiting explosives. I do think this will be a tougher test than most of the ones that they have faced at this point this year. But I still like what they do defensively and I also think just matchup wise, I think Oregon's going to lean on its run game against a USC defense that hasn't been great against the run, which I think is going to kind of keep the clock running quite a bit in this one. So under 59 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I don't hate that I, I am going to go and take the 10 with USC. I think this is the second best passing attack or maybe the first depending that Oregon's seen this year and by a lot. Right. Like they faced Iowa can't throw. You know, all the other teams they played except for Indiana can't throw. Indiana threw it on pretty okay. So I do think that USC will be able to score a little bit. Obviously Oregon wants to keep it on the ground. I think control this game. Northwestern actually ran it on them pretty decent in in LA. Iowa did in the first half. So I'm gonna go ahead and take the 10 with USC. Number.

[Tom Fornelli]

What if I told you I'd get you 10 and a half?

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, then I'll definitely take that. Let's go.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. Danny.

[Danny Canal]

Can you get me nine and a half for the Ducks?

[Bud Elliott]

There's lots of splits.

[Danny Canal]

Let's middle this bad boy and we both come out winners. Let's get a 10 point victory for the Ducks. The injuries concerned for USC has me concerned. Playing on the road has me confirmed. CERN for USC and everyone kind of talking about Oregon and I don't know if they're that good and who have they beaten. I mean, I think Dan, Dan Lanning is going to have this team in a frenzy and I do think they're really good, especially when they can run the football, which I do think they'll be able to do. So I'll lay them with Oregon the.

[Chip Patterson]

Number one pass defense in the country in terms of yards per game allowed and passer rating allowed, all 136fps teams. Oregon up there at number one, which of course led Bud Elliott. The, the classic Bud Elliott line of what's the best passing attack they played this year? Yeah, with a pulse. I still think that. I think Oregon's defense is going to provide a tough challenge. I think that the home road splits as we've detailed multiple times this week are concerning for Jaden Maiva and this, this USC passing attack. However, I think that Lincoln Riley is correct when he says we've been a second half team all year and I think that the players on this team are correct where they talk about the resiliency of player led team. Lincoln Riley said this week that other USC teams that he's coached would have buckled down double digits to Iowa in those conditions. You know, he really believes like Jade Maeva talks about this team this, this week as being a special team. So I don't want any part of that second half team. Let's go. Oregon first half minus five and a half at home. First 30 minutes we're just going to go ahead, we're going to take it, take a nice little, nice six point lead into the locker room or more. Oregon also not as much this season, but last year had a little bit of a third quarter issue. You know, they get out to these big leads and then just kind of play with their food a little bit after halftime. Not anything that I would apply as consistently to the 2025 squad, but still something that's ringing around in my head. So USC slow starts, some Oregon advantages. I like throw puddles on that bike. Get out there, get off to a fast start and let's cash this ticket at halftime.

[Tom Fornelli]

I thought you were setting up the pre flop USC second half.

[Chip Patterson]

What is that? All right, well hey, by Saturday I might have a treasure map shoot by Friday afternoon, by Thursday 3:25 on the.

[Tom Fornelli]

End of the show.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we'll have something. All right, let's keep things rolling in the day. Arkansas at Texas 3:30pm Eastern Time kickoff from Daryl K. Royal Stadium In. In Austin. Who's got a lock?

[Danny Canal]

I do.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. Yeah, yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Over. Oh, yeah.

[Danny Canal]

Over 57 and a half. I think Texas defense, we talked a little bit about this the other day. Texas defense was really good earlier in the season until they started facing some pretty good off offenses. I think Taylor Green is really tough to defend as a dual threat. Quarterback Bobby Petrino still, you know, potentially coaching for his future, whether it's Arkansas or somewhere else. And I do think Arkansas's defense cannot stop anybody. So I think this is a good game for Texas's offense to get back on track. A lot of points. Give me the over.

[Bud Elliott]

I. I was gonna take Arkansas at 10. It's not there anymore. So it's a pass for me. I just like, what kind of motivations does Texas have here? You know, like, are they getting above the mat? Maybe. But I, I can also see him just totally mailing this in.

[Tom Fornelli]

I am on Arkansas plus nine and a half. I don't even need the ten.

[Bud Elliott]

Just.

[Tom Fornelli]

I.

[Bud Elliott]

It's.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's honestly my favorite stat so far of the 2025 season is that Arkansas is 2 and 8 with a point differential of plus 18. So to put that in layman's terms, in case you don't understand, Arkansas has scored more points this year than it has given up and it is two and eight. And that includes a 43 point loss to Notre Dame. Yeah, their SEC losses, five of them have been by three points or less. I saw the stat in our notes from CBS this week. In this century, it is tied for the most losses of three points or less in a single season by any team in the FBS this century. So they've been in a lot of close games. Texas's defense has allowed at least 31 points in each of its last three games. I don't think that def. I think that they're kind of just wearing down from having to carry that offense all season long. It's just catching up to them. And I think if the one thing about Arkansas is they have shown they can put points up on you, that that's not been their problem. So I do think that they're going to hang around. I don't think they're going to pull off the upset, but I don't think this is going to be very comfortable in DKR come the fourth quarter.

[Chip Patterson]

You said not nine and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, let's go. I was comfortable at eight and I think eight and a half is what I had yesterday. Right, Danny, for Spotlight.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's been moving Around a bit.

[Chip Patterson]

I, yeah. So if you want to sit back and if you want to wait for a 10, I understand that. But my, what, what has Texas done to inspire confidence right now? Now here, here's one thing that I'm entertaining. Steve Sarkeesian is hot right now. On the SEC coaches teleconference on Wednesday, that guy was shooting flamethrower. I mean he, he is very, very put off by all of the conversation and all of the chatter and we don't need to spend this show going in into that. But I am recognizing there is an FU game out of Texas where they win this thing by 30.

[Bud Elliott]

But the chatter about him taking a different job or the chatter about them being out of the playoff.

[Danny Canal]

No, the chatter job.

[Chip Patterson]

A different job. Yeah.

[Danny Canal]

He started off again. It's very similar to what he did the first time he came around with the Diana Orina report. He said, first off, I want to get something out of the way. Reports are ridiculous. You could hear the anger.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, there's, I mean, there's something, I.

[Bud Elliott]

Mean, so reports keep happening.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, reports, yeah. It's just Des doing.

[Danny Canal]

You think game day will bring it up with dez? They kind of have to. Right.

[Chip Patterson]

See Danny, speak intelligently to that because I'm always watching college football pre.

[Danny Canal]

That's right.

[Chip Patterson]

That's right.

[Danny Canal]

As you should.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know what even is happening on that show right now because I'm just dialed into college football pregame, you know. Right. We're eating our donuts. We're having our Saturday morning. I got college football pregame on the tv. I, I think that if you're going about this game, I would hope that you at least give him an opportunity. You know, if you post that video on social media and it inspires that kind of response in an official setting like the coaches teleconference, then yeah, I, I, I would hope that it's a part of the conversation, but so I'm willing to entertain. There is like a Texas alt line theory here that they just go out and blow their doors off. But there's just been nothing from that team that has inspired the confidence. They can do that if it's tight. I trust Arkansas's absolute capital H. Hate of Texas. Again, sneaky rivalry where one side hates the other one a lot more than the other one thinks about the other. Right. Arkansas, Texas being one of those give me the hogs plus the best number I can get. Sounds like nine and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Desmond should show up to this game day set with a dog that's a great way to.

[Chip Patterson]

It's a great way to deflect. Yeah. Atlanta, Georgia. Bobby Dodd stadium boy, Brent Key, he's. He's trying to get that alignment right. He's trying to. Trying to get the assignments fixed. Here comes Mason Heintschel, who might have been broken. You know, young, young boys got. Put the pieces back together. Who's got a lock with Pitt and Georgia Tech?

[Danny Canal]

I don't think. Oh, there you go.

[Bud Elliott]

I. I just, like. I. I don't think there's much difference between. Between these teams. You know, it's not like Georgia Tech has a big home field.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'll. I'll take.

[Bud Elliott]

I'll take Pitt and two and a half.

[Danny Canal]

Oh, don't let Brent Key say they don't have big home field.

[Bud Elliott]

They don't.

[Danny Canal]

I think it actually will be a good. I think it'll be a good atmosphere. I do. I played there at night when they were good. It'll be a good atmosphere.

[Chip Patterson]

Anybody else?

[Danny Canal]

Baton Rouge at night or Bobby Don at night? Which way you gonna go?

[Chip Patterson]

Not.

[Tom Fornelli]

Not wasting my money on this league.

[Danny Canal]

I don't trust either team. I, you know, we were talking, like. I think everybody thinks it's going to be a shootout. I have concerns that Georgia Tech's going to move it against pits defense and.

[Bud Elliott]

Hold the ball forever. Yeah, I could.

[Danny Canal]

I'm just gonna enjoy this. I think it'll be a fun game.

[Chip Patterson]

I might have something on this game later. And then BYU at Cincinnati, 8pm kickoff here at the Nip. Who's got a lock?

[Tom Fornelli]

I do. All right, let me see what the number's still at here, if I can find it. Yeah, it's still there. Give me the over 54 and a half. I don't think Cincinnati's defense is very good, and I think that BYU's run defense is kind of suspect, which will allow Cincinnati to have at least a modicum of success there. I mean, I'm not looking for a crazy shootout here, but I do think we can get up to 55.

[Bud Elliott]

I will take the under 56.

[Danny Canal]

Oh.

[Tom Fornelli]

Fight.

[Chip Patterson]

Fight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Fight.

[Chip Patterson]

Fight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Fight.

[Bud Elliott]

I. I was looking for a way to play this either Cincy or. Or under. I just think if you look at what happened last week, to me, part of that was TCU just. Just basically no show in the game. And I. I think the spread probably reflects that, like, not giving, you know, like, not giving too much credit to byu. To me, the total felt like a little bit high. I do think that the BYU probably runs the ball a lot here. Maybe you know, clock doesn't, you know, isn't. Isn't stopping a whole lot. So I.

[Tom Fornelli]

Sorry.

[Bud Elliott]

I think under. Makes a little bit of sense.

[Chip Patterson]

Ah.

[Danny Canal]

A little.

[Chip Patterson]

A little bit of red on the board. All right. I got. Might have a little something on this later. TK you got any plays on this one?

[Danny Canal]

No.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Danny Canal]

I don't have a great feel for this one either.

[Chip Patterson]

Fun game. I mean, yeah, fun game with stakes. But just to hear something later. Tough one, tough one to call. All right, coming up on the other side, we open up the Saturday board. Anything goes our money line, sprinkles and more.

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[Tom Fornelli]

This episode is brought to you by Disney. This Thanksgiving, Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde are back on the big screen. So grab your family and friends as Disney invites you to return to Zootopia for the fur nominal movie event of the holiday season. See all your favorite Zootopia characters, plus new favorites in the most paw e movie of the year. Don't miss Disney Zootopia 2 when it hits theaters everywhere November 26th. Get your tickets now.

[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Let's take a look at what we've got on the board. Bud Elliott. He's locking up. Missouri plus eight, USC plus ten and a half, Pitt plus two and a half and BYU, Cincinnati under 56. I've got Missouri, Oklahoma under 42 and a half, Oregon first half minus five and a half and Arkansas plus nine and a half. Danny's got Florida State minus four and a half. Oregon minus nine and a half. UNLV minus two and a half. Arkansas, Texas over 57 and a half. And Tom's got the under 42 and a half in Missouri, Oklahoma, USC, Oregon under 59 and a half. Arkansas plus nine and a half. And the BYU, Cincinnati over 54 and a half. All right, Danny and Tom both tied for the the week win last week. Do y' all want to flip the tea?

[Tom Fornelli]

Danny, you go ahead.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Danny Canal]

All right, I will go. I had a first yesterday on our top 25 pick. Show that chip. And I do. I made a switch.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Danny Canal]

Because I. I'd seen this note before and I think I had been burned on it before. But Georgia as a 40 point favorite under Cardi B. Smart is. Oh, 13 and one against the spread. Charlotte 49ers are a 44 point underdog. Give me Charlotte and the points.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know what? I'm gonna give you Charlotte 44 and a half just in case.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Danny Canal]

It's 44. Nothing to start the game right.

[Chip Patterson]

That is. Danny, you have learned so much. I'm so proud of you. That is so true. Given 44 point leads are very difficult to blow. I still think it's possible. I'll go with it.

[Danny Canal]

It's gonna be a sweat.

[Chip Patterson]

I'll go to under 53 and a half in this one.

[Danny Canal]

There you go.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I kind of want to look. I think I'm going to look up like the last few years with the way that the scoring rules are, the clock rules are. I want to see like what the record is of anybody who's like a 42 point favorite or more.

[Danny Canal]

Right.

[Chip Patterson]

Texas Tech did blast Kent State into the sun. There are some like. It takes the right offense and the right motivation. Certainly.

[Danny Canal]

Oregon did blast Oklahoma State. They had no problem.

[Chip Patterson]

That's right. It's one of the biggest. It's like that. And who did Florida State absolutely thump like one of the. Texas. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

You said you're on the under, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. 53 and a half is still. Is that my best?

[Tom Fornelli]

I can get you a 54.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. You guys are taking it the wrong direction. All right, which, which. Where would you like to go next?

[Tom Fornelli]

I am going to take. I'm gonna go to the Sunbelt. The. The best conference in the world. I'm going to take the team that has quite the chip on its shoulder this week when they saw that Tulane, a team with multiple losses, including one by like, what, 22 points to UTSA is ranked and they're sitting there with one loss and they aren't. The committee doesn't give a damn about them because they play in that little old Sun Belt and they got to pay the Sunbelt tax, which means we don't care about you. You're not good enough and you never will be. James Madison has to show that they're good enough. They've got Washington State flying all the way across the country coming out there to face them. Early start time be 10am Pacific. Washington state body clock issue and they're less than a two touchdown dog. Now I know that Washington State came across the country and gave Ole Miss some trouble and gave Virginia some trouble. But those teams aren't as good as James Madison and they don't have as much to prove as James Madison. So give me the Dukes -13 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, that's what they got to do, you know, keep getting disrespected. You can have a common opponent with Ole Miss. You can be out there saying we beat Washington State by more than Ole Miss did with similar stakes. Right. Just a one off game in the middle of pursuing a conference championship.

[Tom Fornelli]

I like that. Both have one loss and we both have one common opponent.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's keep it up here with you know, the, the big ones, the heavy hitters. Give me the Mercer Bears plus 28.

[Danny Canal]

Yeah. Interesting number, you know. Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

Which game is this?

[Danny Canal]

Auburn. Right.

[Chip Patterson]

Here's the thing that Auburn fans may or may not be aware of. The Mercer Bears are 9 and 1 and currently ranked in the top 10 of the FCS coaches poll and stats ranking.

[Bud Elliott]

True.

[Chip Patterson]

It ain't a nobody, you know. Now Mercer has its own like they still have the FCS playoffs. Right. Like if you want to question what are, what is Mercer's motivation here? Well, I'll tell you what Mercer's motivation might be. It might be from the fact that Mike Jacobs still early in his head coaching career, you know, I mean this is still his second season with Mercer. This is a tone setter. This is a way that you go in and you go from Macon to Auburn and you make that statement. Mercer bears plus 28. Iron Bull. Look ahead, you know, it's principal. Principal. Let's go. Mercer doing. Doing the Dougie like it's 2014 and you just beat Duke in the first round. Go Mercer. Bud, where would you like to go?

[Bud Elliott]

I would like to go to Cal Stanford.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh God. We are really. I mean.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay. Play the music. I don't know.

[Danny Canal]

Let's go.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. That's not totally sicko, but I figured it was worth the Joke. Okay, go ahead.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean this has been bet down to, to three. There's even a two and a half out there at, at Hard Rock. So like, I mean, I'm lay that two and a half and with Cal, I just think that that's. I just think it's like a better football team than Stanford is. So go ahead and take them.

[Tom Fornelli]

But will the band be out in the field?

[Bud Elliott]

That's what we can't predict.

[Chip Patterson]

It's hard. It's hard to predict that. Certainly. Dk, where would you like to go?

[Danny Canal]

I will go. Let's go to Nashville, Tennessee where you have Kentucky traveling with Cutter Bowley, who has been a pleasant surprise. The freshman for Kentucky. Since they've rolled with him, I think their offense has been playing a little bit better. I know it's, it's a tough Kentucky defense, but Diego Pavia & Co. I think they're going to be able to put up some points and I also think Kentucky will be able to put up some points. Give me over 52 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

But. Oh, come on, calculate it.

[Bud Elliott]

Are you gonna. No, no, no, I'm not.

[Danny Canal]

Diego wants that Heisman. They're gonna be trying to put up some points for him.

[Chip Patterson]

Raymond is asking for locks in the Notre Dame Syracuse game. I've got one. Does anybody else?

[Bud Elliott]

It is a lock that I will not watch this game.

[Tom Fornelli]

Correct.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, Syracuse has to feel pretty good about keeping Fran Brown at this point, right? Like not. You're not gonna have a lane given situation out there.

[Chip Patterson]

Notre Dame first half team total over 23 and a half. I need two dozen points on the board by the time the Fighting Irish get to the locker room. And I believe that they can get it. I took note of how on the front foot Notre Dame was against Pittsburgh and this is the final home game of the season for the Fighting Irish. Well, I mean, playoff, you're right. Yeah, it could be in the College Football Playoff, but I, I expect them to, to come out to be getting the work they need done. I don't know if they are trying to, you know, I don't know if they're trying to boost anybody's stats or not, but they were way more aggressive when they took control of the game against Pittsburgh than they were once that game was in hand. It is 33 and a half is a massive spread and I really got no idea what we're going to get from Laxbro coming out there for Syracuse at quarterback. But I do know that Notre Dame should be able to score against this defense. Notre Dame first half team total over 23 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

It's not bad.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny. Where else would you like to go?

[Danny Canal]

Do we have a policy on FCS bets?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, you can make them.

[Chip Patterson]

I just took Mercer.

[Tom Fornelli]

You just took.

[Chip Patterson]

No, no.

[Danny Canal]

I mean but like. Well, the brawl of the wild is taking place. Montana and Montana State squaring off number two versus number three. I mean it is kind of a big game for the 316 pound trophy between the two. Well, we'll. We don't have to go there on there.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I'll allow it.

[Danny Canal]

You'll allow it because we have a home dog in Montana who is sitting at 11 and oh, perfect on the season. Montana State 9 and 270 both in the big Sky. Give me the home underdog. Montana plus one and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

What time is kickoff here?

[Tom Fornelli]

1Pm 2pm 2 Eastern.

[Danny Canal]

2 Eastern. Watch out for Kiali Ayat, a QB for Montana State. Gotta defend him.

[Chip Patterson]

I. I need. I need Danny giving updates on this one in studio.

[Danny Canal]

Yes, I think we should do. I think we should do a game recap of this one. Gotta give love to fcs.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, you.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, you.

[Chip Patterson]

You make a good enough argument and it's something that's available at the, you know, big Sports.

[Danny Canal]

It's on FanDuel. Let's make every moment more.

[Chip Patterson]

There you go. Tom, where would you like to go?

[Danny Canal]

Home.

[Tom Fornelli]

But let's see first give me. I'm trying to see where I want to. You know what, I want to get this in case it moves. But let me check real quick.

[Chip Patterson]

Sorry, I was about to make that joke with Mercer. But guys, I need to bet this quick. It's good. About to start moving.

[Tom Fornelli]

All right, give me the under 40 and a half in Minnesota. Northwestern.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, tasty.

[Tom Fornelli]

Minnesota is a slow moving team. They've been getting slower as the years moved on. Northwestern, not exactly a speed demon. Neither one of these offenses is very explosive. I think that they match up very well with one another defensively in that I think both defenses are capable of slowing down the athletes on the other side. It's at Wrigley Field when might be howling in off the lake. We know what kind of impact that has. This feels like the kind of game where the only run that'll be scored will be on an air and a wild pitch. So give me the under 40 and a half.

[Danny Canal]

I will add a bet to that game as well. I will take Northwestern and lay that. I have to lay three and a half though, right? It is a hook.

[Tom Fornelli]

Let me see if I Could find you a 3. I don't think there are any others.

[Danny Canal]

I do think lower scoring game could.

[Tom Fornelli]

Be three and a half is the best you can get.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Danny Canal]

Because Northwestern, as I would not want to have to see them, have to beat Illinois to get to a bowl game. They do. They could use this win to get to a bowl. Minnesota's already locked theirs up. I think Northwestern's a pretty good team. That was like a much better team. I won't say this year they've been a tough route. I think they get a big win at home.

[Chip Patterson]

Solid but limited is a Northwestern. Hi, honey. Hi.

[Tom Fornelli]

This is what happens when you tell me not to acknowledge you. She texted. She's like, I'll be coming downstairs in a second. I'll be quiet. Don't acknowledge me. I'm like, okay.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Can't say that word on the show, hon.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay.

[Chip Patterson]

SMU minus two and a half. Louisville's in town early kickoff. Louisville's vibes are stinky. Smu obviously still playing, you know, still. Still playing it for, for lots of different. Let's see. SMU, you're looking at 32.7% chance you've. You're in the title game against UVA. 12.6% chance you're in the title game against Georgia Tech. I mean, even 7.3% chance you're in the ACC title game against Duke. If you want to get any of those scenarios home, you got to take care of business right here. Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss talking about culture issues on the team that need to be addressed. I don't trust the cards on the road in this spot. Give me the ponies minus the short number.

[Tom Fornelli]

I could think of another position on the team that needs to be addressed.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, the quarterback. Yeah. So let me, let me go ahead and, and get a piece of smu. I've got way too many potentials. We need to start trimming this.

[Bud Elliott]

Let's. Let's go and, and drill one down here.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Bud Elliott]

All right. So the dentist like my bets last weekend, but still can't catch a break when Lane Kiffin leaves for lsu. I won't miss his play calling inside the five yard line. The nil pool will be much larger if we don't keep losing bets by turning it over on downs two to three times per game. Inside the three slim pickings this weekend, boys, but I'm still grinding with my guys at Bandy. They are still highly motivated, obviously, and I trust them to play well enough at home in the new electric environment. At the boat. Give me Vandy. Minus nine and a half in the first half. Vandy team total over 16 and a half waves at lane. Oh my gosh, that's awesome.

[Chip Patterson]

If only Lane liked golf.

[Bud Elliott]

Like so done with him.

[Danny Canal]

Oh man, if Lane like golf, it'd be so good.

[Chip Patterson]

The dentist would have his hooks in him. You know, if Lane liked golf.

[Bud Elliott]

Pissed omis boosters were gonna like would be. If all of a sudden he starts playing golf at his new school. Like assault the wound.

[Chip Patterson]

Where's this new school gonna be?

[Bud Elliott]

Like, is LSU just leverage against Florida or do you think he actually would take lsu?

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know.

[Danny Canal]

So you think he's Florida or do you think he knows? I think there's a gen.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know if he genuinely. I genuinely think he enjoys the process more than he's ready to make a decision.

[Danny Canal]

Yeah, I think so too. I think he may not know.

[Tom Fornelli]

And he did the same thing with Auburn. Just let it drag out and then stayed.

[Chip Patterson]

I had a. I had a friend who was being wooed by four or five different fraternities and he took it all the way to bed night and he was even like, I don't know, where am I going to go? And just let them all wine and dine them until the very last minute. And then just made kind of an impulse decision. And I just, I'm getting those same vibes. You know, Lane likes Rush more than he's ready to start pledging, so.

[Danny Canal]

And just like the bid decision, it can be life altering.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Tom Fornelli]

Do you have any locks? Whatever? What? Okay. She said Utah -17 and a half lock agreement.

[Chip Patterson]

Put it on the board.

[Danny Canal]

Put her. Give her own column.

[Tom Fornelli]

All right.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we're. We're rolling with that one. A hundred percent. Are you kidding me? I. There are so many college football games in a Saturday. There are results that sometimes fall below the radar. And Kansas State absolutely showing zero interest to play winning football against Oklahoma State last week was one of those results that fell under the radar to begin with and. And really took a deeper audit of week 12 before I realized how funky things are around those gym bags. And now they're going to go all the way out to Salt Lake City against the Muss. Against a Utah team that is hitting its stride in basically every facet. Nah, Utah blows them out. I'll lay the big number. Bird is the word.

[Tom Fornelli]

So if she gets this right, does she replace the dentist and Ken's next season?

[Chip Patterson]

Does she want to.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we'll see.

[Tom Fornelli]

She doesn't seem very thrilled with me right now.

[Chip Patterson]

She might sign a contract extension to stay upstairs. You know, new deal with more buyout language. I like that.

[Danny Canal]

Hold that game.

[Chip Patterson]

Listen, she knows ball.

[Tom Fornelli]

There's that.

[Chip Patterson]

That's. There's some ball knowing going on for sure. All right, Tom, where you want to go?

[Tom Fornelli]

Give me UTSA plus two and a half at home against East Carolina.

[Chip Patterson]

Come on. I'm locking up with the whole family.

[Tom Fornelli]

UTSA been much better at home. Wouldn't be the first time one of the Americans conference contenders came down to San Antonio and got beat. So give me. Give me the Roadrunners.

[Chip Patterson]

Things get spooky in the Alamo Dome. I don't know why.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, they've just been better downstretch. So. Yeah, I. I don't think this should be a road favorite situation.

[Chip Patterson]

It's. It breaks my heart to be on the other side of the pirates here, but yeah, UTSA at home versus UTSA on the road or some of the more remarkable home road splits and it goes all the way back, like, to the beginning of the Jeff Traylor era. I mean, it truly boggles the mind, you know. What's. What's going on in the Alamo Dome?

[Tom Fornelli]

No idea.

[Chip Patterson]

No idea. It must be remembering. It must. It must be. I think I've heard Jeff Traylor in post game press conferences not say that it's spiritual or like invoking spirits, but he certainly seems to believe there's some mojo going on with the way that the Roadrunners are able to play in that building. So, yep, I. I'm gonna follow those as well. I will grab UTSA plus the two and a half. Who's. Let's see. Who needs to fill out the card. Oh, God. Okay. Not me.

[Danny Canal]

I'm pretty. I'm pretty light this week. I think I'm pretty much done.

[Bud Elliott]

I've got one.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, go.

[Bud Elliott]

Give me south or. Sorry, give me UAB plus 22 at home hosting USF. Like, I mean, USF probably thinking about other things. What happens next year. Their playoff chances are pretty much toast. I mean, they're like, what, 8% to win. To win the American at this point. Even if they do, I don't know. I'm not sure if they're a team that actually jumps JMU if they came back to win the Americans. So, you know, probably got guys thinking about next jobs and next next transfer destinations. So 22 is a big number to cover on the road against team that can really score.

[Chip Patterson]

Gracious.

[Tom Fornelli]

I very Much had that on the card but got it.

[Chip Patterson]

Texas A M Samford under 59 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

Sanford, didn't they fire their coach?

[Chip Patterson]

Texas A and M in these late season games, whether they be against low level FBS or FCS, it's a lot of 38 to threes, you know, 40 to 10. 38. 10. Yeah. Let's. Let's back up sort of. I've got it paired on my sheet right. With the Georgia Charlotte. Similar thinking here. We're just. We're going to get to a good lead and we're not. We're not exactly trying to. To go out there and put style points. We're trying to keep everybody healthy. And then I got one more. Anybody else?

[Bud Elliott]

What you got?

[Chip Patterson]

Two lane temple over. Can I get 55 and a half or is it 56 and a half?

[Bud Elliott]

There's 55 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Temp two lanes. Defense kind of carved up the last couple of weeks. I don't know if when John Summerall calls his team average at the midweek press conference is lying. I think the former linebacker. He was a linebacker as a player, right? Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I think the former linebacker, former defensive assistant. I think he's mostly frustrated with the defense's inability to get stops kind of getting picked apart a little bit through the air that Casey Keeler and Temple, if they can go get us, you know, if they can go get us 24 points. I do think that Jake Retzlaff in the Wave can be able to take care of the rest. So I'll go two Lane Temple over. So. Okay. Anything else I have.

[Tom Fornelli]

Let's see. Make sure it hasn't moved. It has moved. Is there any.

[Bud Elliott]

What the. The Delaware Wake Hunter.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, no. I found one. Toledo minus 27 and a half. I know it's Jason Candle is big favorite, blah, blah, blah, yada yada yada. And it's never really a great spot to be. But I do feel like this is a bit of a mismatch for Ball State and I think Toledo can take advantage of that. And then my final lock is a team that needs to win out to get to a bowl. That was certainly one of their goals before the season started. And they're facing a team that has not played very well this year, a team that's gotten beat up in conference competition. Give me Texas state team total over 37 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

Whoo.

[Chip Patterson]

Spavs boys found a little something.

[Tom Fornelli]

They need to keep finding it.

[Chip Patterson]

Sorry, guys, that's a joke. Texas State. I realized that's we are Several coaches ago, but that's a. I've been.

[Tom Fornelli]

I've been called boys.

[Chip Patterson]

Still spaz boys in my heart. Texas State has been Spav's boys for now, what, five years? Has GJ Kenny been there four or five years? Something like that.

[Tom Fornelli]

You're always somebody's son, Chip.

[Chip Patterson]

That's true. That's true. Bobcats. Go Cats. All right, last call. Just being very clear, getting everybody's attention. Last call. All right. Okay. Okay. Let's review the action we've got on the board. Bud is on Missouri plus 8, USC plus 10 and a half, PIT plus 2 and a half, BYU, Cincinnati under 56, Cal minus 2 and a half, UTSA plus 2 and a half and UAB plus 22. I'm on Missouri, Oklahoma, under 42 and a half, Oregon first half minus 5 and a half, Arkansas plus 9 and a half, Charlotte, Georgia under 54, Mercer plus 28, UTSA plus 2 and a Half. Notre Dame first half team total over 23 and a half. SMU minus 2 and a half, Utah minus 17 and a half. Texas A&M, Sanford under 59 and a half and 2. Lane Temple over 55 and a half. Danny Scott, Florida State minus 4 and a half, Oregon minus 9 and a half, UNLV minus 2 and a half Arkansas, Texas over 57 and a half. Charlotte plus 44 and a half. Kentucky Vandy over 52 and a half. Montana plus 1 and a half and Northwestern minus 3 and a half. And Tom's on Missouri, Oklahoma under 42 and a half, USC, Oregon under 59 and a half, Arkansas plus 91 half, BYU, Cincinnati over 54 and a half, JMU minus 13 and a half, UTSA plus two and a half. Minnesota, Northwestern under 40 and a half, Toledo minus 27 and a half and Texas State team total over 37 and a half. And those were the locks sponsored by Cash App. As you heard me say at the top of the show, new Cash App users can use our code and get free money. Use our code, cover three, send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 right in your account. Thank you to Cash App. And coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the Moneyline sprinkles for week 13 and more next.

[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. And now it's time for Moneyline Sprinkles, brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game. Last week the Sprinkle King, Bud Elliott did cash on Texas State +160. However, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Boston College did not come home for me. Oh, a sprinkless week. Virginia Tech, Baylor, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Utah State, nothing good. Nothing coming home for Chip. Danny got Clemson plus 125, got Navy plus 320. Baylor and Pitt could not get it done. And then for Tom, let's see, we got Tulsa +125, Navy +320. Northwestern, North Carolina state and coastal not able to come home. So Bud, what are we sprinkling this week?

[Bud Elliott]

All right, so we actually have a lot of stuff to pick from this week. We will take NC State +180. It might get off the mat, might not. We'll see about that. I'm not really sure the points figure all that much in that game. We're going to take Colorado State plus 600 against Boise and of course, as a matter of principle, we will be taking ball state plus 2400 at Toledo.

[Chip Patterson]

Because who's got the bankroll? That's right, the bankroll to fade.

[Bud Elliott]

Hypothetically. Of course, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Hypothetically. Hypothetically, that's correct. You know, hypothetically, right.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I just. This is a nice sprinkle week. Like there's a lot of stuff you can pick from. Those three kind of stood out. But like this could be a nice upset week among all these games where people don't have a lot left to play for. Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

And Danny, I will go Take me.

[Danny Canal]

To Nashville, give me. Kentucky plus 300.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yep.

[Danny Canal]

To knock off Vanderbilt. I'm gonna go right down the street in Boca Raton where FAU is hosting Yukon Kaden Veld camp. That offense plus 240 Huskies, all three losses. They've got all on the road. They might not be used to the humidity. They could be. Their tongues could be dragging a little bit here in the heat of South Florida. That is their last game of the season too, right. UConn is done after this one. Give me Cincinnati at home. Nippert against BYU. What is that one?

[Chip Patterson]

I got 120.

[Tom Fornelli]

I get you 125.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Danny Canal]

And last one. I don't know the number on this one. Sorry, Tom. But Wisconsin has showed new life. Actually played Indiana not bad on the road last time they were at home. Beat Washington. Say they knock off the fighting Illini.

[Bud Elliott]

Plus 260. Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, Tom.

[Tom Fornelli]

I wasn't gonna take NC State before. I kind of want to. No, I won't. I'm Gonna take Maryland plus 460 against Michigan. Michigan's on the road again. Michigan almost lost on the road last week. Michigan has been bad on the road all season. Maryland finally made a decision on Locksley, so that's no longer hanging over their head. And I think that you're. They need to win out to get to a bowl. And if they win this game, they've got Michigan State left. So I know that I'm going to get 100% effort from Maryland with Ohio State on deck. I don't know that I'm going to get 100% for Michigan. Georgia Southern plus 375.

[Chip Patterson]

Damn right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Stanford at home against Cal plus 135. The band might be on the field. Pitt going on the road to take down Georgia Tech and just making sure the ACC remains a mess at plus 120. And then middle Tennessee is favored over anybody in this country. What are. What are we doing? Give me the hottest team in America. Give me the Bearcats with a k. Sam Houston plus 210. That.

[Bud Elliott]

That's. Yeah, I thought about that too.

[Chip Patterson]

My beloved Blue Raiders. How the mighty have fallen. Cincinnati plus 125. Let's go with a little pit. Panthers as well. Looked at both of those at +2 and a half and figured that they just. If you're going to take the two and a half and given the coin flippy nature of it, that's why I've got them down to the. The sprinkles portion of the program. I'm also on NC State plus 180. Also on Maryland plus 460. And not a single reference through more than an hour of the Locks podcast on this game. Wouldn't it be hilarious if the Florida Gators keep the streak alive? Let's go Florida +1 670 on the.

[Danny Canal]

Fourth Saturday in November. Nonetheless.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I can get you.

[Danny Canal]

They might have to read.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. 170.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, that's. I. So this is a tight line with a very different prep. There is a. There is a pressure imbalance in this contest under the lights in Gainesville. So yeah, let's, let's. Let's go. Go Gata to be able to get me home. All right. To review Sprinkles, we got on the board. Bud is on NC State plus 180. Colorado State plus 600. Ball State plus 20. 400. Chip's got Cincinnati plus 125. Pitt plus 120. NC State plus 180. Maryland plus 460. Florida plus 170. Danny's got Kentucky plus 300. FAU plus 240. Cincinnati plus 125. Wisconsin plus 260. And Tom Scott. Maryland plus 460. Georgia Southern plus 375. PIT plus 120. Stanford plus 135. Sam Houston plus 210. And those were the money line sprinkles brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game. What else? What else? Maybe didn't make the cut that you were circling around. All right. I looked at Arizona minus six and a half against Baylor. You know, tricky, tricky, tricky little spot there for, for the Baylor Bears. Maryland ended up throwing it on as a moneyline sprinkle, but didn't hate that. Houston, interesting position. Tcu. You know, you talked about TCU blowing all their toes off one by one. Let's see what they've got left going up against a Cougs team with something to play for. James Franklin bump plus 17 and a half. That'd just be funny. I don't. Yeah, nobody. Bud, what's your Miami Virginia Tech green.

[Bud Elliott]

My Miami Tech read is that I, I almost are Tech. Like, okay. I actually think if you look at it last week, success rate wise, Tech and Florida State were very even. It really just came down to like, like a bunch of turnover luck, you know. So, like, if they played that again, I would definitely bet Tech again over fsu. Like, that was not a. An edge for the Knowles. I don't think on a down to down basis. It was just very, very, very turnover. Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny, anything else you were looking at? Didn't end up making the cut.

[Danny Canal]

No. I had Tennessee of Florida, but I didn't do anything with it. That was the only one I had written down.

[Chip Patterson]

I also like your, your play of under in the Miami Virginia Tech game, you know, as another one there where.

[Danny Canal]

It'S just defense, you know, like that effort sucks.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Virginia Tech would have to score points to cover 17 and a half, you know, and I, that, that does make me a little bit, a little bit weary looking ahead to that. But we will be giving you our all on Saturday night, 11:30pm Eastern Time to recap all of the action. Oh, to re have reaction to all of the Week 13 action. Come and hang out YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter @bud Elliot3. You can follow him at Danny Canal. You can follow me at Chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Danny Canal]

See ya.

[Tom Fornelli]

Now streaming on Paramount.

[Chip Patterson]

Brandon was the full package. I felt like I met my guy.

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[Chip Patterson]

God. But he's not even close to the person that I thought he was.

[Tom Fornelli]

When you do break up with Brandon.

[Chip Patterson]

That is when the stalking begins.

[Tom Fornelli]

I just knew something horrific was about to happen.

[Chip Patterson]

I saw the devil in his eyes. We're gonna tell everyone what he did. Don't date Brandon.

[Tom Fornelli]

Now streaming on Paramount. Plus.