Cover 3 College Football Podcast: Week 14 LOCKS – Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | Texas A&M-Texas | Ohio State-Michigan
Episode Date: November 26, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
Overview
This Week 14 episode of the Cover 3 Podcast serves as a jam-packed picks and predictions show for Rivalry Week — the last full slate of the 2025 college football regular season. Chip, Tom, Danny, and Bud break down the biggest games, make against-the-spread LOCKS and Moneyline Sprinkles, analyze coaching carousel news, and debate College Football Playoff implications in an entertaining, competitive roundtable. The episode is high-energy, full of sharp betting takes, rivalry banter, and inside references for die-hard college football fans.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Coaching Carousel Updates
[03:17 – 06:58]
- Eric Morris to Oklahoma State: Morris leaves North Texas to coach his alma mater, turning down Arkansas. There are rumors that Arkansas was also in the mix, but Oklahoma State was the smart choice.
- Quote: “Eric Morris has done a really nice job there at North Texas… I think it’s probably a smart choice by him to go home.” – Bud Elliott [03:41]
- Jim Mora to Colorado State: Mora, after NFL and college stints, surprisingly lands at Colorado State. Surprising, as rumors connected him to Stanford.
- Quote: “Jim Mora… maybe you’re just looking at Colorado State right now as an upgrade… maybe less of a spotlight… just show up, coach some ball, and try to win some games.” – Tom Fornelli [06:03]
- Broader implications: Oklahoma State allowing Morris to finish out the season helps with program branding and recruiting, especially after recent struggles.
2. Lock Results Recap: How Did Last Week Go?
[08:14 – 12:17]
- Bud: 3-4 last week, now 66-66 overall. Felt snake-bitten despite beating major line moves.
- Chip: 7-4. “We’re not going to complain.” Moves to 75-65 on the year.
- Danny: 5-3. “Westoff is right in the chat. Danny’s heating up.” Stands at 60-64.
- Tom: 3-6. Defends his approach: “This competition is far from over.”
Notable Exchange:
- Chip: “We don’t let that rat poison get in here…” [12:17]
- Discussion about whether LOCKS should extend through playoffs or just conference title week. It will stop with the regular season and conference championship.
3. Coaching Carousel Banter & Playoff Scenarios
[13:43 – 15:11]
- Quick fire on Eric Morris' and Jim Mora’s moves.
- Chip insists on a strict, grueling 15-week competition (no ‘clown’s mouth’ playoff points).
- Banter over the physical "Cash App Cover 3 Locks Trophy" and competitive trash talk between hosts.
4. Rivalry Week LOCKS & Game Analysis
Thursday/Friday Games
- Memphis vs Navy [15:38]
- Bud likes Memphis team total UNDER 33.5 [16:03]
- Egg Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State [16:57]
- Bud likes UNDER 63.5, seeing both teams relying heavily on the run. [19:37]
- Tom, joking with the chat, claims “things didn’t go well,” but maintains confidence; Danny sees Mississippi State's run game as an edge.
- Notable quote: “Largest emotional hedge of my life… hoping that my bad luck picking Ole Miss games this year will help them avoid an absolute nuclear meltdown.” – Submission from listener/friend O [18:04]
- Georgia vs. Georgia Tech [20:00]
- Chip: Georgia team total OVER 37.5
- Danny: Likes full game OVER 59.5
- Chip on Georgia: “I wonder if after what happened last year we actually do see some rivalry edge and a little bit of teeth here…” [21:56]
- Texas A&M at Texas [22:16]
- Bud: Texas A&M -2 (“I just don’t trust Texas’ OL… the only real big weakness in this game I see.”) [22:55]
- Chip & Tom: OVER 51.5. Tom with lock agreement on the Over: “For once, Chip is correct. I do think that the total is a little bit low in this one.” [25:12]
- Danny: A&M -2 with lock agreement. “I probably trust Marcel Reed a little more… his legs add another dimension.” [25:43]
- Group debate: Who do you trust more in the QB battle, Arch Manning or Marcel Reed?
- Chip, Danny: lean Reed; Bud, Tom: lean Arch [26:10]
- Iowa at Nebraska [27:35]
- Chip & Bud: Iowa -6
- Tom: UNDER 39.5 (“Weather’s going to be ugly, both teams run-heavy.”) [28:17]
- Danny: Nebraska +6.5 (“Just feels like a field goal game.”) [29:26]
- Kent State at Northern Illinois [30:07]
- Bud: Kent State +5.5 (“Just cannot lay points with NIU.”) [30:14]
- Arizona State vs Arizona [30:55]
- Danny: UNDER 48.5 (“Lower scoring game; both teams better on defense.”) [31:09]
5. Saturday Headliners
- Ohio State at Michigan [34:48]
- Tom: Ohio State -9.5 (“Based on what I’ve seen from Michigan, I don’t think they’re going to score a whole lot of points against this defense.”) [34:52]
- Danny: Michigan +10.5 (“There is a mental edge that Michigan has.”) [36:26]
- Chip: Ohio State 3rd quarter -2.5, citing Buckeyes’ tradition of big halftime adjustments. [38:46]
- Playoff implications debated, with a long sidebar on what a win means for each team and the committee.
- Miami at Pitt [39:56]
- Danny: Miami -6.5 (“Miami is closer to Notre Dame than Georgia Tech.”) [39:58]
- Bud: Pitt Team Total UNDER 21.5, citing Miami’s D-line as better than the sum of several ACC teams. [41:41]
- Oregon vs Washington [44:10]
- Danny: Oregon -6.5 (“I think they're really good… dangerous team if they get healthy in the playoffs.”) [44:58]
- Discussion on Oregon's black funeral uniforms and playoff mindset.
- Tennessee vs Vanderbilt [47:44]
- Bud: Tennessee (“Matchup just not good for Vandy.”) [47:49]
- Alabama at Auburn (Iron Bowl) [48:57]
- Chip: 1st Half UNDER 23.5 (“Think it’s going to be cagey… tight, tight start type message.”) [49:51]
- Bud: Alabama -5.5 & 1st half -3, feels line should be higher. [49:51, 51:40]
- Danny: Auburn +6.5 (“Auburn's defense could provide some issues for Ty Simpson.”) [50:43]
- BYU vs UCF [53:17]
- Chip & Tom: UCF team total UNDER 14.5, noting Knights’ awful road offense. [54:02]
- LSU at Oklahoma [54:31]
- Danny: UNDER 36.5 (“Oklahoma’s D is otherworldly… both teams playing conservatively.”) [54:36]
- Bud: LSU +10.5, points to similar defensive performances versus Bama (details at [55:04])
- Army at UTSA [56:29]
- Tom: OVER 51.5, makes case that UTSA home games go to the moon, and Army will get theirs too. [56:29]
- USC at UCLA [58:01]
- Chip: USC Team Total OVER 41.5 (“If you think Lincoln Riley’s gonna have some fun, you’re damn right.”) [58:01]
- Virginia Tech at Virginia (Commonwealth Cup) [58:49]
- Bud: Hokies +10, believes in Tech’s recent fight. [58:57]
- Louisville vs Kentucky (Governor’s Cup) [59:33]
- Chip: UNDER 47 (“Hazmat game… ugly.”) [59:58]
- SMU at Cal [60:05]
- Danny: SMU -13.5, likes Mustangs’ mindset and Cal’s state of mind. [60:05]
- Stanford vs Notre Dame [61:01]
- Danny, Tom & Chip: Stanford +33 (“Too many daggum points… starting with a 33-nothing lead and they’re fighting.”) [61:12, 61:26]
- Florida State vs Florida [63:00]
- Tom: Florida State +1.5 (“Our Noles are broken, bruised… but this is a rivalry.”) [62:59]
- Bud: Florida -1, thinks UF can run wild. [64:23]
6. Moneyline Sprinkles
[69:28 – End] Bud:
- Cincy +155 at TCU (“TCU does not consistently show up”)
- Maryland +165 at Rutgers
- Rice +2100 at USF (“Just think it’s overpriced”)
Danny (Channeling Tom):
- Mississippi State +240 (Egg Bowl)
- Georgia Tech +480 (vs UGA)
- Arizona State +110 (vs Arizona)
- Michigan +350 (vs Ohio State)
- Auburn +200 (vs Alabama) – “Give me all those home dogs and rivalry games. Throw out the record books and see what happens.” [72:03]
Tom:
- Mississippi State +240
- Utah State +150
- Texas +115
- Michigan +350
- Pitt +225
- Kentucky +135 (Governor’s Cup)
- Clemson +120 (as DOG at South Carolina)
- Vandy +135
- Washington +230
- Virginia Tech +300
- Coastal Carolina +1200
- UCLA +1150 (fades Chip’s USC Over)
Chip:
- Utah State +145
- Washington +220
- Coastal Carolina +1200
Notable Quotes & Banter
- “Sometimes when streaks end, they end loudly.” – Bud Elliott, on Ohio State-Michigan [35:50]
- “We don’t let that rat poison get in here…” – Chip Patterson [12:17]
- “Blind squirrel.” – Tom (chiding Chip after a lock agreement) [54:12]
- “Just feel like a field goal type game. Late, windy, cold, ugly. Give me Nebraska.” – Danny (on Iowa-Nebraska) [29:26]
- “Give me Florida State +1.5. Our Noles are broken, bruised and battered… but this is a rivalry.” – Tom Fornelli [62:59]
- “If you think Lincoln Riley’s gonna have some fun scoring some points in this rivalry game in the Coliseum, you’re damn right he is.” – Chip, on USC [58:01]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [03:17] – Coaching Carousel roundup: Eric Morris & Jim Mora
- [08:14] – Week 13 locks recap
- [13:43] – COMPETITION rules/flavor banter on playoff betting
- [15:38] – Memphis vs Navy (Thanksgiving opener)
- [16:57] – Egg Bowl LOCKS
- [20:00] – Georgia vs Georgia Tech
- [22:16] – Texas A&M vs Texas
- [27:35] – Iowa at Nebraska
- [30:07] – Kent State at NIU, Az St vs Arizona, Bronco bets
- [34:48] – Ohio State at Michigan
- [39:56] – Miami at Pitt, D-line talk
- [44:10] – Oregon vs Washington
- [47:44] – Tennessee vs Vanderbilt
- [48:57] – Alabama at Auburn (Iron Bowl)
- [53:17] – BYU vs UCF
- [54:31] – LSU at Oklahoma
- [56:29] – Army at UTSA
- [58:01] – USC at UCLA
- [58:49] – Virginia Tech at Virginia
- [59:33] – Louisville vs Kentucky
- [60:05] – SMU at Cal
- [61:01] – Stanford vs Notre Dame
- [62:59] – Florida State vs Florida debate
- [69:28] – Moneyline Sprinkles
Tone and Style
The episode captures college football’s energy, with a conversational, trash-talking edge. The hosts might challenge and rib each other, but bring decades of experience, sharp observations, running inside jokes, and loads of specific, actionable betting insight — making it both informative and entertaining for both casual and hardcore college football bettors.
For Listeners Who Missed It:
- Get up to speed on coaching news, rivalry week angles, and the most actionable best bets for every time slot.
- Engage with host personalities and sharp banter as they debate and justify their picks for one of the most consequential weekends of the college football season.
For more picks/capitalization on host betting records and the full Moneyline Sprinkles competition, check out the full pod and subscribe to the Cover 3 College Football Podcast.