Cover 3 College Football Podcast
Week 2 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | Michigan-Oklahoma | Illinois-Duke, More
Date: September 4, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
Episode Overview
The Cover 3 team (Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, and Bud Elliott) delivers detailed analysis and spirited picks for Week 2 in college football. The hosts recap their previous week’s records, discuss scoring trends and betting insights, and offer their LOCKS, best bets, and Moneyline sprinkles for an event-packed Saturday. They break down major matchups—including Michigan-Oklahoma, Illinois-Duke, and Baylor-SMU—discuss strategies, banter about betting superstitions, and react to trends, upsets, and interesting lines across the board.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Week 1 Recap & Betting Records
- Bud Elliott dominated Week 1 (7–1, now 8–2 for the season). He attributes success to focusing on unders, discussing how the decline in scoring is linked to roster turnover and evolving defensive strategies.
"Scoring is way down across the sport...they’re really copying that NFL model...deny the explosive play at all costs." (Bud Elliott, 05:19)
- Chip Patterson struggled at 2–8:
"Bloodbath Saturday for me...I do not have a sound effect to properly describe how awful that one was." (Chip Patterson, 06:30)
- Danny Kanell (6–4) recounts being “jinxed” by the other hosts texting him mid-game and emphasizes the need to not celebrate wins too early.
"You can't jinx me like that. Don’t ever say anything until the game has gone final." (Danny Kanell, 07:59)
- Tom Fornelli (5–3): bemoans bad beats and quirky game situations, such as a game where the official clock malfunctioned.
"There was no game clock for like the entire second half. So as far as I'm concerned, there still might be 10 minutes left..." (Tom Fornelli, 10:08)
Splash Leaderboard & Community Contest
- 52 participants went 6–0 in the contest; most-picked teams included Alabama and Georgia Tech.
- Emphasis on season-long engagement and listener participation.
Week 2 Locks & Picks
Thursday/Friday Action
- Hosts show restraint on Friday night games, particularly Louisville vs. James Madison and Maryland vs. FAU, with Bud noting that extreme turnover on offense (like 6 INTs by FAU) makes bet outcomes volatile.
"You might not throw six passes...Like there's a difference here." (Bud Elliott, 15:30)
Saturday Marquee Games
Iowa @ Iowa State ("Cy-Hawk Trophy")
- Tom: Over 41.5. Believes Iowa State’s defense is vulnerable, Iowa will reveal more offensively.
- Chip: Iowa team total over 19.5.
"We just got to get 20 points...they don’t even need capable quarterback play..." (Chip Patterson, 17:04)
- Danny: Iowa +3.5, skeptical of Iowa State’s ability.
- Bud: Leans under, but passes. Notes the offensive reliance on tight ends and first-year cohesion issues.
Illinois @ Duke
- Bud & Chip: First half under 24.5. Expect a methodical, run-heavy approach from Illinois and concern about both teams' attacks starting slow.
- Tom: Full game under 50, trusting Illinois' conservative offense and strong D-line against a shaky Duke line.
- Danny: Over 49.5; expects late scoring spree and “backdoor” cover.
- Memorable Moment: On betting first-half unders—"I was told they're the worst possible gambling entertainment content. And this is supposed to be an entertainment program?" (Bud Elliott, 21:56)
Baylor @ SMU
- Chip: First quarter over 14; anticipates both offenses strike early.
- Danny & Bud: Game over 63.5; see shootout potential, praise Sawyer Robertson (Baylor QB).
"I think Sawyer Robertson is one of the better quarterbacks in the country." (Danny Kanell, 31:05)
Kansas @ Missouri (Border War)
- Danny: Over 50.5, expects points with Jalon Daniels back and questions for both defenses.
- The rest are in “wait and see” mode—hard to gauge both O-lines and potential for scoring.
Oregon State @ Oregon ("Big time on CBS")
- Tom & Chip: Oregon -28.5, Chip doubles with 1st half -16.5.
- Danny: Joins full-game minus.
"Bloodbath. Zane Flores came in for Hoax Haney last week. Zane Flores is a freshman quarterback going on the road to Autzen Stadium to face that defense..." (Tom Fornelli, 36:44)
Michigan @ Oklahoma (Prime Time, CBS)
- Tom: Under 45.5, doubts a freshman Michigan QB will find success vs. Venables' defense.
- Bud: 1st half under 23.
- Stat drop: "Venables is 21–5 against freshman QBs as a DC." (Chip Patterson, 40:41)
- Much debate over the low total and both teams' offense potentially tightening in a showcase matchup.
Notable Additional Picks
Ole Miss vs Kentucky
- Bud (via "the Dentist"): First half Ole Miss -6.5.
- Bud & Danny: First half under 26, expecting UK to drag down pace.
BYU vs Stanford
- Danny: BYU -20.5. Cites Stanford's defense being a fade and BYU's ability to score big.
Indiana vs Kennesaw State
- Tom: Indiana -35. Points out Signetti's intensity after last week’s let-down and Wake Forest being “awful.”
Mississippi State vs Arizona State
- Chip: MSU +6.5. Senses home-field edge and doubts ASU pulling away.
Arkansas vs Arkansas State
- Chip: Arkansas team total over 43.
UCLA vs UNLV (CBS Sports Network)
- Chip & Bud: Over 54.5; expect both offenses to find rhythm and defensive lapses.
Fresno State vs Oregon State
- Tom: Fresno +3.5, believes line overreacted to opening-week loss.
- Bud: 1st half under 23; trusts both defenses to dominate early.
Western Kentucky vs Toledo
- Tom & Bud: WKU +7.5. Both see Hilltoppers as a live dog.
Florida vs USF
- Danny: Over 55.5. Explosive weapons for both; possibility of late scores.
- Bud: Florida 1st half -10.
Kansas State vs Army
- Danny: KSU -17; expects buttoned-up, corrected performance after Army’s shaky outing and KSU’s drop out from Top 25.
Sicko Mode Picks (Deep Underdogs)
- Bud:
- Kent State +48.5 at Texas Tech ("That's a big, big number, I made it 44") (55:13)
- Tulsa -4.5 at New Mexico State. Believes Tulsa is undervalued, likes Trey Lamb as coach (68:21)
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On betting first-half unders:
"First half unders are boring... I was told they're the worst possible gambling entertainment content. And this is supposed to be an entertainment program?"
(Bud Elliott, 21:56) -
On being jinxed by early texts:
"Don’t ever say anything until the game has gone final. Come on. Bunch of rookies."
(Danny Kanell, 07:59) -
On rivalry tension:
"It's rivalry week. They're a little on edge, so I give them some benefit of the doubt there, but just a little..."
(Tom Fornelli, 19:43)
Moneyline Sprinkles (Best Underdog Bets)
(All odds and picks as of episode release; see timestamps ~74:00 min onwards)
-
Tom:
- Kansas +210 at Missouri
- Mississippi State +210 vs Arizona State
-
Danny:
- Virginia over NC State
- UNLV over UCLA
- Kansas over Missouri
-
Bud:
- Boston College +170 at Michigan State
- Texas State +160
- Michigan +176 over Oklahoma (Bud, 78:16)
-
Chip:
- Iowa +140 at Iowa State
- Virginia +122 over NC State
- Mississippi State +210 vs Arizona State
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Hosts’ Week 1 Recap: 03:40–12:00
- Splash Leaderboard Discussion: 11:12–12:28
- LOCKS Begin (Saturday): 12:50
- Iowa–Iowa State Deep Dive: 16:01–19:43
- Illinois–Duke Breakdown: 20:07–27:26
- Baylor–SMU Locks and QB Talk: 28:13–32:04
- Missouri–Kansas Border War: 33:16–34:28
- Oregon State–Oregon: 34:41–37:44
- Michigan–Oklahoma (Prime Time CBS): 38:21–41:49
- Ole Miss–Kentucky/SEC Notes: 44:15–48:33
- Rapid Locks Round (BYU, Indiana, Miss State, etc.): 48:52–57:01
- Sicko Mode/Deep Cuts: 54:48–69:48
- Moneyline Sprinkles Segment: 74:05–79:50
Tone & Style
- Lively, conversational, with playful banter and inside jokes (especially about betting “sicko” games).
- Analytical yet accessible — stats, trends, and advanced data referenced, but explained for a broad audience.
- Hosts regularly rib each other and the audience, but with clear expertise and deep knowledge of rosters, matchups, and betting strategy.
A must-listen for College Football fans looking for both sharp insight and a sense of community, Cover 3’s Week 2 LOCKS episode sets the table for a wild weekend of college football with spirited debate, high-value picks, and plenty of laughs along the way.