Cover 3 College Football Podcast – Week 3 LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks (Texas A&M–Notre Dame, Florida–LSU & More)

Date: September 11, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 College Football Podcast is the essential listen for fans seeking actionable Week 3 betting analysis and picks against the spread. Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, and Bud Elliott dive deep into the marquee matchups, tricky lines, and their favorite LOCKS for the upcoming weekend. They dissect last week’s results, lick their wounds (and celebrate victories), then move on to Thursday, Friday, and a stacked Saturday slate including picks for Texas A&M–Notre Dame, Florida–LSU, Georgia–Tennessee, USC–Purdue, and many more.

1. Week 2 Recap & Standings

[05:31–09:30]

• Bud Elliott: Had a rough 2–8 week, citing injuries and tough beats (e.g., the Ole Miss/Kentucky under and Illinois/Duke). Stands at 10–10 for the season.
  • “Ole Miss-Kentucky first half under was like a really crappy beat... and Illinois-Duke was just a gut punch bad beat.” – Bud [06:02]
• Chip Patterson: Went 6–4 for the week, 11–12 on the season. Noted success with dogs (Mississippi State, Fresno State).
• Danny Kanell: Six wins, three losses; currently leading at 12–9 overall.
  • “I always look at the losses, they hurt worse than the wins... I think I'm gonna leave (Kansas State) in the rearview for a while.” – Danny [07:57]
• Tom Fornelli: Also 5–3 on the week; voiced frustration about last-minute turnovers affecting his lock on Illinois/Duke.

2. Thursday & Friday Night LOCKS

[09:55–19:24]

• Wake Forest at NC State: No official locks, but discussion of Wake’s team total under and the general difficulty both teams face generating offense.
  • “Wake really doesn’t throw the ball very well... NC State overs are just gonna be a go zone. But Wake Forest is really going to test that.” – Chip [12:24]
• Friday Night: Colorado at Houston
  • Danny: Locks Houston – tale of two programs going in opposite directions.
    • “As much as I love the story of Martin Luther Staub, I’ma have to fade him... I think Willie Fritz and Houston are going to have all of them.” – Danny [15:16]
  • Bud: Also locks Houston due to Colorado’s defensive injuries and Houston’s offensive advantage over the middle.
    • “I’m a little concerned about Colorado’s defensive injuries... I am going to go ahead and lock up Houston here.” – Bud [15:52]

3. Saturday Main Slate

Clemson at Georgia Tech

[21:36–24:54]

• Bud & Chip: Both lock Clemson to cover a short spread.
  • “I don’t think Tech’s passing game is very good at all. I think if Clemson can focus in... it can probably have enough success slowing them down.” – Bud [21:48]
  • “Getting down under a field goal sounds a little preposterous when the range of outcomes includes some big Clemson wins.” – Chip [23:04]
• Danny: Likes over 52.
  • “Sometimes there’s vibes... Kate Klubnik played well there last time. Second half against Troy, they got things figured out... I’ll go over.” – Danny [24:10]

Georgia at Tennessee

[26:15–30:25]

• Tom: Locks Georgia –3.5, favoring their defense and coaching edge in big-game environments.
  • “Give me Georgia -3.5... I think Kirby's had some success against this kind of offense in his past.” – Tom [26:15]
• Bud: Under 50, citing athletic defenses and OL/DL matchups.
  • “I don't think both offenses will click here and I think you're going to need like decent games from both to get over here.” – Bud [27:01]
• Danny: First half under 24.5.
  • “I think it’s a slower start for sure. Georgia's offense, their fans have been calling out Bobo again...” – Danny [27:50]

USC at Purdue

[30:51–34:49]

• Tom: Purdue 1Q +6.5 – expects them to keep it close early.
  • “USC last year, when they went on the road, they struggled... I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue is very much in this game at the end of the first quarter.” – Tom [30:54]
• Chip: USC 4Q –3.5, banking on garbage time surge.
  • “Give me the garbage time All Stars... USC in the fourth quarter, minus three and a half. This is a team that's been pouring it on late, boy.” – Chip [32:19]
• Danny: USC –20.5 spread.
  • “Just give me the Trojans late, before it goes above the three touchdowns. I'm gonna lay 20 and a half.” – Danny [33:19]

USF at Miami

[35:32–39:18]

• Chip & Bud: Miami 1H –9.5; believe Miami’s D-line will control the game, and USF’s slow starts continue.
  • “Miami’s defensive line has kind of been a revelation... I think they are going to give the US offensive line some problems.” – Bud [36:23]
• Tom: USF team total under 20.5.
• Danny: USF +17.5, expects a backdoor cover.

Texas A&M at Notre Dame

[39:52–43:48]

• Tom: Notre Dame team total under 28.5, sees a low-scoring, tight contest.
  • “I don't know who wins the game... I just feel better about Notre Dame not scoring a ton of points.” – Tom [39:52]
• Chip & Danny: Over 49.5; both see Notre Dame’s offense waking up and A&M hitting explosives.
  • “...as slow as the start was for Notre Dame, it was like with each additional possession they seemed to get a little bit better.” – Chip [40:21]
  • “Let the children sing. I lean towards Notre Dame... I think it'll be a little bit higher scoring.” – Danny [41:42]

Florida at LSU

[44:01–46:48]

• Chip & Bud: Florida +7.5 – think Gators hang tough.
  • “Wouldn't it be hilarious? I don't think Florida is going to pull the outright upset, but the idea that they would absolutely be hanging in this game.” – Chip [45:22]
  • “I think Florida here is a little bit of value.” – Bud [45:31]
• Tom: Under 47.5.
  • “I just, I haven’t been all that impressed by Florida’s offense. I haven’t been all that impressed by LSU’s offense. I think both offenses are going to find it to be tough sledding.” – Tom [46:10]

4. Rapid Fire Picks + “Sicko Mode”

[49:31–73:48]

Additional Locks & Lines

• Vanderbilt +4.5 at South Carolina (Danny & Chip) – Both like Vandy’s defense and QB advantage.
• Oregon –27.5 at Northwestern (Tom & Danny)
• Oregon 2H –13.5 (Chip)
• Arkansas +7.5 at Ole Miss (Chip)
• Tulsa +14.5, UAB –11.5, Various Unders (Bud in “Sicko Mode”)
• Alabama –20.5 vs. Wisconsin (Danny)
• Richmond +21.5 at North Carolina (Chip – FCS bonus pick)
• Boston College –13.5 at Stanford (Danny)
• Minnesota –2.5 at Cal (Chip)
• Utah State +4.5 vs. Air Force (Tom)

5. Moneyline “Sprinkles” Segment

[77:26–83:48]

Hosts each gave longshot moneyline underdog picks for high-upside returns:

• Tom:

  • Bowling Green +195 vs. Liberty
  • Arkansas +240 vs. Ole Miss
  • Duke +104 vs. Northwestern

• Bud:

  • Duke +104
  • New Mexico +540 vs. UCLA

• Danny:

  • Duke +104
  • Tennessee +150 vs. Georgia
  • Vanderbilt +175 vs. South Carolina
  • West Virginia +225 vs. Pitt

• Chip:

  • Arkansas +240
  • Old Dominion +235 vs. Virginia Tech
  • Jacksonville State +155 vs. Georgia Southern
  • Vanderbilt +175
  • South Alabama +1500 vs. Auburn
    • “Wouldn’t it be hilarious if South Alabama didn’t just cover the spread... but handed Hugh Freeze an outright loss?” – Chip [82:56]

6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Who cares about the actual score—it's about who should have won!” – Chip [09:18]
• “My blue plate special, five-star locks are coming.” – Bud [10:07]
• “I always look at the losses, they hurt worse than the wins…” – Danny [07:57]
• “Let the children sing.” (when in agreement) [41:37 & others]

7. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Week 2 Recap: [05:31–09:30]
• Thu/Fri Locks: [09:55–19:24]
• Clemson–Georgia Tech Analysis: [21:36–24:54]
• Georgia–Tennessee Preview: [26:15–30:25]
• USC–Purdue Breakdown: [30:51–34:49]
• USF–Miami Picks: [35:32–39:18]
• Texas A&M–Notre Dame Discussion: [39:52–43:48]
• Florida–LSU Analysis: [44:01–46:48]
• Moneyline Sprinkles: [77:26–83:48]

8. Episode Tone & Style

High-energy, bantering, and irreverent but deeply analytical. The hosts share both process and vibes for each game, with “wouldn’t it be hilarious?” moments, plenty of friendly ball-busting, and data-driven logic on each side. Running memes like “let the children sing” (for agreement) and “Sicko Mode” (for degenerate picks) keep things lively and playful, always in the language and rhythm familiar to serious college football fans and bettors.

9. Takeaways

• The Cover 3 team sees value this week on Clemson, Georgia, Miami, Arkansas, Florida, and several underdogs (Vanderbilt, USF, and more).
• Multiple matches have significant splits among hosts, resulting in plenty of “lock-agreements” and some spicy debates.
• Moneyline picks are leaning into value on dogs like Arkansas, Vandy, and high-variance upsets (South Alabama).
• The pod remains must-listen for its mix of insight, stats, humor, and community.

For more picks, breakdowns, and late news, catch the team live each week and join the “Cover 3 Tailgate” chat—Thursday drop for locks and late Saturday night for instant recap and reaction.