Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Week 4 LOCKS: Best Bets for Miami-Florida, Auburn-Oklahoma, Michigan-Nebraska, and More!

Date: September 18, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This lively, prediction-packed Week 4 episode of the Cover 3 Podcast delivers in-depth analysis, sharp opinions, and bold against-the-spread LOCKS for the upcoming Saturday. Hosts Chip, Tom, Danny, and Bud recap their Week 3 betting results, debate this Saturday’s best bets—including Miami-Florida, Auburn-Oklahoma, Michigan-Nebraska—and dive into their famous “Lock Fight” banter. Expect their trademark wit, inside CFB knowledge, and plenty of strong stances as they preview every major matchup (and some true ‘sicko’ games) across the country.

Recap: Week 3 Results & Lessons Learned

Timestamps:

• [02:13] Season records & breakdown
• [03:34] Individual reviews

Chip Patterson:

• Went 5-6 last week, now 16-18 on the season.
• Notables: “Clemson minus three, that one was just an absolute stinker…” (04:11)
• On Florida (+7.5): “Their defense played well enough... offense just crap the bed.” (04:01)

Bud Elliott:

• 6-5 last week, 16-15 for the season.
• “Would I bet the losers again? Florida’s the only one I’d take again.” (04:03)

Danny Kanell:

• 4-6 week, 16-15 season.
• Technical difficulties (“We cannot hear you, Daniel.” - 06:25), but provides picks via chat later.

Tom Fornelli:

• 4-3 last week, now 16-10 (leading the Cash App Cup).
• Lamented Oregon letting go of a big lead: “Just disgusting… what Dan Lanning is doing up there, he needs to get his crap together…” (07:43)

Notable quote:

“We’re about a fifth of the way through the competition... Tom again the leader, but a long way to go.” — Chip (09:11)

Week 4 LOCKS: Main Card Picks & Sharp Debate

Thursday & Friday Action

Rice at Charlotte

• No official locks; consensus: fading Charlotte, Rice leans, but “not locking it up.” (10:11)

Iowa at Rutgers (Friday)

• Bud: Under 47 (“I don’t really trust this Iowa offense to get right… Rutgers is really banged up on offense…” – 11:22)
• Tom: Over 46.5, touting Rutgers’ explosiveness (“Rutgers offense is explosive, unstoppable, the Greek rifle is just firing on all cylinders…” – 11:46)
• First minor disagreement—no “Locks Fight” declared yet.

Saturday Main Slate

Texas Tech at Utah ([13:32])

• Chip: 1H Under 29.5 (“First half could be a fact-finding mission... a little creaky to get going…”)
• Tom: Over 57.5 (“We could be in for an old-fashioned kind of Big 12 shootout… even if it’s not an old-fashioned Big 12 matchup…” – 15:14)
• Danny (chat): Under 57.5 AND Utah -3 (lock fight with Tom)
• Bud: No pick, sees the line as fair.

Michigan at Nebraska ([18:29])

• Bud: Michigan -1.5 (“Cincinnati with a rebuilt OL had a 70% rushing success rate in Lincoln… I don’t think Michigan’s OL is amazing but it’s better than Cincinnati’s…” – 19:05)
• Chip: Michigan -1.5 or ML (concerned about Nebraska’s inability to close games; “I don’t trust Texas Tech until they prove it…” – 17:27)
• Tom: Nebraska +2.5 (lock fight with Chip/Bud, on the opposite side)

“I have not been that impressed by Michigan… I just like Nebraska at home.” (21:37)

Auburn at Oklahoma ([23:08])

• Danny: Oklahoma -6.5, taking the Sooners.
• Bud: Sides with Oklahoma -6.5 due to mismatch (“I do not like Auburn’s back seven…” – 24:11)
• Chip: Under 47.5 (“Brent Venables has a ton of confidence in his defense…” – 26:19)
• General consensus: Oklahoma’s defense to shine, questions about Auburn QB play.

Illinois at Indiana ([27:08])

• Chip: 1H Indiana -3, Full game over 52.5 (“Illinois’ gotten off to some slow starts... but I also think both offenses can move it.”)
• Bud: Illinois +6.5; Danny also on Illinois (“I just don’t think there’s that big of a gap between these teams…” – 28:33)
• Tom: Not betting, but trusts Illinois in close games (“If Illinois does win… they start creeping up the rankings even further…” – 31:37)

Florida at Miami (FL) ([31:37])

• Bud: 1H Under 26 (“Miami loves to run duo... Florida just keep establishing whatever the hell y’all been doing for the first three weeks…” – 32:43)
• Tom: Full game under 51.5 (“This could be 13-10 going into the fourth quarter…” – 33:25)
• Danny: Florida +8
• Chip: Miami 1H -4.5 (“...a self-care Saturday kind of position; just not having to put my hopes and dreams on the line for the decision making that’s coming in the final 30 minutes…” – 35:32)

“Sicko Mode” & Deep Cuts

Bud introduces “Sicko Mode” locks—a run of bets on badly matched teams and under-the-radar action:
([43:20] and following)

• Temple +24.5 vs. Georgia Tech (“Temple has a couple like decent players and I watched them against UMass… they were like the superior team…” – 44:27)
• Sam Houston 1H Team Total Under 2.5 (Chip); Tom likes full game under 7
• Louisiana–Eastern Michigan Under 51 (Bud)
• UTEP -5.5 vs ULM (Bud)
• Georgia State +27.5 at Vandy (Bud)

Marquee Night Games

USC vs. Michigan State ([39:53])

• Tom: USC Team Total Over 37.5 (“Trojans going to run it the hell up. I think they're going to run it the hell up.” – 40:57)
• Chip: Agrees, locks the Over 37.5 (41:38)
• Danny: USC -17.5
• Bud: Full game Over 55.5

Moneyline Sprinkles Segment ([70:54])

Hosts each pick several underdogs to win outright.
Recent big winner: Bud’s New Mexico (+540) springs him into season lead.

• Bud:
  • Tulsa +350 at OK State
  • Maryland +300
  • Air Force +305
  • Memphis +250
• Chip:
  • Tulane +375
  • NC State +145
  • Illinois +195
  • ECU +200
• Tom:
  • NC State +145
  • Southern Miss +150
  • Illinois +200
• Danny (chat):
  • Illinois, Nebraska +115, North Carolina +220, Syracuse +580
• Notable moment: Discussion about “emergency podcast” if Maryland beats Michigan State (71:16)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Lock Fight sound effects multiple times—bickering and agreement mark this episode as more combative than previous weeks ("I’m in two fights already. We had no fights last week and we’ve got two in the first four picks!” – 16:07).
• Chip on Miami: “When it comes time for these two to solve the riddle I don’t want any part of it… It just seems like a self-care Saturday kind of position.” (35:32)
• On “nut cuttin’ time”: “Our look into nut cuttin’ time… the history and why it’s called nut cuttin’ time…” (31:37)
• Lock agreement raucousness: “So many ways to win and we’re all holding hands like it ain’t gonna score for Michigan State or he’s gonna score for USC, yep!” (41:41)
• On Illinois-Indiana: “If Illinois does win, they’re undefeated still… start creeping up the rankings even further…” (31:37)
• Bud, on Oklahoma-Auburn: “Brent Venables is very [good at] figuring out what a quarterback or offense’s weakness is and forcing them to play that way…" (24:11)

Other Segment Highlights

Rapid Fire Sicko Locks

(43:20 - 50:00)

• Deep pick banter—Sam Houston under, Temple +24.5, EMU under, etc.
• Several “could you stomach this game”-type exchanges.

Late Night & Undercard Picks

(52:45 - 54:54)

• Virginia (UVA) -8.5 1H & -14.5 full game vs Stanford
• Missouri supported multiple ways (team total, spread, South Carolina 1H under)

“Wouldn’t it be hilarious if…”

(61:28)

• “Wouldn’t it be hilarious if… Notre Dame loses to Purdue and everyone has to re-evaluate?”

Timestamps: Key Segments

• [02:13] — Week 3 Recap & Looking Forward
• [11:22] — Iowa vs Rutgers Lock Discussion
• [13:32] — Texas Tech at Utah
• [18:29] — Michigan at Nebraska
• [23:08] — Auburn at Oklahoma
• [27:08] — Illinois at Indiana
• [31:37] — Florida at Miami
• [39:53] — USC vs Michigan State
• [43:20+] — Sicko Mode Locks
• [52:45] — Virginia-Stanford
• [54:54] — Missouri-South Carolina
• [70:54] — Moneyline Sprinkles

Tone & Style

The show maintains a highly conversational, energetic, and opinionated tone. The hosts combine advanced analysis with lively banter and running show “bits” (e.g., sicko picks, lock fights, self-deprecating humor about their own records). They challenge each other, tease Danny (who appears via chat), and admit when lines move against them or when a pick is “gross” or “sicko.”

Summary Table: Major Locks (by Game)

| Game | Chip | Tom | Bud | Danny | |--------------------------|-------------|---------------|---------------|-------------| | Rice at Charlotte | — | — | — | — | | Iowa at Rutgers | — | Over 46.5 | Under 47 | — | | Texas Tech at Utah | 1H Under 29.5| Over 57.5 | — | Under 57.5, Utah -3| | Michigan at Nebraska | Michigan -1.5| Nebraska +2.5 | Michigan -1.5 | Under 46.5 | | Auburn at Oklahoma | Under 47.5 | Oklahoma -6.5 | Oklahoma -6.5 | Oklahoma -6.5 | | Illinois at Indiana | Indiana 1H -3, Over 52.5 | — | Illinois +6.5| Illinois +6.5 | | Florida at Miami | Miami 1H -4.5| Under 51.5 | 1H Under 26 | Florida +8 | | USC vs Michigan State | Team Total O37.5 | Team Total O37.5 | Over 55.5 | USC -17.5 | | Missouri vs South Carolina| TT O29.5 | Missouri -9.5 | SCar 1H U7.5 | — | | Indiana at Duke | NC State +145 ML| NC State +145 ML | — | — | | Tulane at Ole Miss | Tulane +375 ML| — | Tulane +375 ML| — | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

Listen-If-You-Like

• Deep, tactical and emotional CFB betting analysis
• Host chemistry, fast-paced disagreements, and inside jokes
• “Sicko picks” for off-the-radar games
• Actionable insight for both mainstream games and degenerate-worthy deep cuts

Closing

The hosts encourage listeners to join their Saturday night Instant Reaction show, sweat out the USC/MSU late window together, and follow them on Twitter for live banter and reaction.
(Next episode: Sat. 11:30pm ET YouTube stream instant recap!)

For a more detailed, granular game-by-game play, reference the full lock list and timestamps above.

Notable Closing Quote

“This episode is what we want to do at the end of our Saturday—watch USC touch forty, see the game go over, and wake up to a winner.” — Tom Fornelli (41:49)