Week 5 LOCKS: Best Bets, Picks Against The Spread For A LOADED Slate Of Top 25 Action | Cover 3

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Week 5 LOCKS: Best Bets, Picks Against The Spread For A LOADED Slate Of Top 25 Action
Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

---

Overview

This episode features the Cover 3 crew diving deep into Week 5's jam-packed college football slate, presenting their best bets (LOCKS) and picks against the spread for a series of pivotal Top 25 matchups. The hosts dissect the aftermath of Week 4, review their betting records, and launch into detailed breakdowns of the week's marquee games—including Ohio State vs. Washington, Oregon vs. Penn State, and Alabama vs. Georgia—before unleashing their full cards of picks, totals, and Moneyline sprinkles. The episode also spotlights a special guest, Chris, thanks to a charity auction, who offers his personal locks for the weekend.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tallahassee Live Show Announcement (03:00–06:00)

• The Cover 3 crew will be broadcasting live at Madison Social in Tallahassee ahead of the Florida State–Miami rivalry game. Listeners are invited, with trivia, giveaways, and a festive "block party" atmosphere expected.

2. Splash Contest & Listener Leaderboard (06:26–07:02)

• Friendly banter about their standings in the "Splash Contest," with shoutouts to standout listeners crushing their picks (e.g., Gator's Dad with a 22–2 record).

3. Week 4 Locks Review (07:02–12:40)

• Bud: 5–7 week; annoyed at losing good yardage bets (e.g., Southern Miss outgaining La Tech but losing).
• Chip: 10–3 week; notes the sting of high-yardage losses and wild in-game events influencing outcomes.
• Danny: 4–6 week; laments lack of injury intel (Utah) affecting his picks.
• Tom: 5–4 week; details how key information late in the week could have changed his choices.

"You remember the losses more. That's what the greats will tell you." — Chip Patterson (10:42)

4. Week 5 LOCKS Breakdown (13:00–61:00)

Weeknight Games

• Thursday:
  ECU vs. Army

  • Tom: Leans Army, points out ECU's struggles against the option.

  Friday:
  Florida State @ Virginia

  • Bud: Locks FSU ("I'm laying it").
  • Danny: Locks FSU, adds full game OVER 59.5 ("This team has a killer mentality").
  • Chip: FSU team total OVER 33.5.

  TCU vs. Arizona State

  • Tom/Danny/Bud: Agreement on TCU (+3) as undervalued, citing Arizona State's shaky offensive performance and TCU's quarterback Josh Hoover playing well.
  • Danny: "Let the children sing."

Saturday Games

• USC @ Illinois (28:39)

  • Tom and Danny: Both lock USC -6.5, noting Illinois’s banged-up secondary and USC's offensive prowess.
  • Chip: Likes 1st half under 30.5 based on possible slow start and Illinois seeking to control possession.

• Ohio State @ Washington (33:12)

  • Tom: Ohio State team total UNDER 30.5—questions OSU's offense in tough environment.
  • Chip: Locks full game UNDER 52.5.
  • Bud: Lays OSU -7.5, feeling Washington's injuries and lack of defensive juice.
  • Danny: Washington 1st half +4.5—anticipates a close start, Buckeyes pull away.

  "Julian Sayin’s never played in an environment like this. He's never been on the road as a starter in a stadium like [Husky Stadium]." — Tom Fornelli (33:25)

• LSU @ Ole Miss (Magnolia Bowl, 37:55)

  • Bud: Locks LSU, praising their ability to cover and match up with Ole Miss's skill positions.
  • Chip: 1st half UNDER 27.5—expects both teams’ defenses to keep it tight early.
  • "The Dentist" (listener submission): Likes OVER 54.5 and leans LSU.

• Oregon @ Penn State (White Out, 43:25)

  • Tom: Oregon +3.5 ("Believe it when I see it" regarding Penn State in big games).
  • Chip: UNDER 52.5—expects both teams’ defenses, doubts Penn State's ability to air it out.
  • Danny: Oregon +3.5, doubts Penn State offense after seeing multiple ugly big-game splits.
  • Bud: Hesitant, argues Penn State has home, D-line advantages but no lock.

  "The Ducks look good. They look ticked off… I think speed kills." — Danny Kanell (46:56)

• Alabama @ Georgia (SEC Showdown, 51:03)

  • All: Majority lock OVER ~52.5 based on skill talent, lack of disruptive pass rusher.
  • Bud: Pushes back, ultimately locks the UNDER (58:13). Doubts both O-lines and expects safer QB play.

  "I think both these back ends can really run. I think both these teams have pass protection issues. They're gonna try to protect their quarterbacks… so give me the under." — Bud Elliott (58:21)

Quick Hit Locks & Totals (61:20–80:00)

• Texas A&M/Auburn: Chip—over 52; Tom—A&M -6.5; Danny—Auburn +6.5 (fight!)
• Rice/Navy: Tom—under 45.5, "Service academy under" logic.
• Duke/Syracuse: Danny and Bud—Duke -5.5, trust the Blue Devils' development.
• Notre Dame/Arkansas: Tom and Bud—ND team total OVER 34.5; Danny—Arkansas +4.5 (fight!); consensus Arkansas can't stop anyone.
• Tennessee/Mississippi State: Chip—1st quarter OVER 14; up-tempo, likely four possessions.

5. Sicko Mode & Deep Cuts (74:26–80:00)

• UMass 1Q +13.5 vs. Missouri: Chip (pro-UMass start), Bud (fight on Mizzou cover), citing injury-ravaged UMass secondary.
• Kentucky/South Carolina: Tom—UNDER 46.5, expects an ugly, turnover-heavy game.

6. Totals Bonanza & Bonus Bets (80:15–85:16)

• Bud: Totals across Louisville, Cincinnati/Kansas, Cal/BC, Utah/West Virginia, etc.
• Chip: BYU 3Q -0.5 (halftime adjustment angle), Rutgers/Minnesota OVER 50.5.
• Danny: Indiana/Iowa OVER 47.5—believes Indiana's offense can get there.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "You remember the losses more. That's what the greats will tell you." — Chip Patterson (10:42)
• "Florida and Illinois: bad plays. Would not take those again… The Utah one—it’d be nice if Kyle Whittingham could give us a little injury updates." — Danny Kanell (11:15)
• (On Washington’s home-field advantage)
  "Julian Sayin’s never played in an environment like this. He’s never been on the road as a starter in a stadium like [Husky Stadium]." — Tom Fornelli (33:25)
• "The Ducks look good. They look ticked off. They still haven’t lost a Big Ten game during the regular season... speed kills." — Danny Kanell (46:56)
• "I think both these back ends can really run. I think both these teams have pass protection issues... so give me the under. Disgusting!" — Bud Elliott (58:21)

---

Listener/Bidder Segment: Chris from the Charity Auction (97:00–122:28)

• Chris, a Penn State fan attending the White Out, joins to present his own locks:
  • Indiana -7.5 vs. Iowa: Loves their improvement and Iowa's regression.
  • TCU +3 vs. Arizona State: Believes in TCU run D; not buying ASU’s offense.
  • Florida State team total OVER (vs. Virginia): Trusts FSU to exploit UVA’s poor D.
  • Georgia Tech -14 vs. Wake: Thinks Tech will grind Wake down in 2nd half.
  • USC -6.5 vs. Illinois: Principle play due to Illini’s secondary injuries.
  • Ole Miss pk vs. LSU: "As a father of a daughter, I will not stand for this." (in light of the Kiffin-daughter-LSU postgame meme drama).
  • Ohio State -7.5 vs. Washington: Thinks OSU’s talent wins the day.
  • Penn State team total OVER 27.5: "Magic number is 28. If Penn State scores 28, they win."
  • Sicko Mode: Marshall +1.5 vs. Louisiana, citing the Ragin’ Cajuns’ QB under-pressure woes (QB rating of 5), and LA’s depleted offensive line.

---

Moneyline Sprinkles (88:32–95:47)

• Bud: Cal +205, Arizona +205, Washington State +185
• Danny: Mississippi State +260, Washington (home win streak), Alabama +135
• Tom: TCU +135, UCF +190, Hawaii +210, Kentucky +190
• Chip: Mississippi State +250, Auburn +205, Oregon +145, App State +550 (for good vibes after a tough week for the program)

---

Useful Timestamps

• 03:00 — Tallahassee live show announcement
• 07:02 — Week 4 locks recap / standings
• 13:00 — Week 5 locks begin (Army/ECU, FSU/UVA, TCU/ASU)
• 28:39 — USC @ Illinois breakdown
• 33:12 — Ohio State @ Washington
• 37:55 — LSU @ Ole Miss
• 43:25 — Oregon @ Penn State
• 51:03 — Alabama @ Georgia
• 61:20 — Totals & extended board locks
• 74:26 — Sicko Mode picks
• 97:00 — Charity segment with Chris (listener locks)
• 88:32 & 95:47 — Moneyline sprinkles

---

Episode Tone & Style

The hosts maintain a fast-paced, friendly, and witty tone throughout, mixing sharp analysis with playful banter, inside-jokes (“let the children sing,” "sicko mode"), and plenty of audience engagement. Key stats, injuries, and matchup data are woven into their picks, with the tone swinging naturally between self-deprecating, competitive, and confident—perfect for passionate CFB fans.

---

Summary Table: Core LOCKS (Selective)

| Game | Picks (with Speaker) | Timestamps | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | FSU @ Virginia | FSU -6.5 (Bud), -6.5 (Danny), Team o33.5 (Chip) | 15:53–18:57 | | TCU @ Arizona State | TCU +3 (Bud, Danny) | 21:15–22:19 | | USC @ Illinois | USC -6.5 (Tom, Danny), 1H under 30.5 (Chip) | 28:39–31:51 | | Ohio State @ Washington | OSU -7.5 (Bud), Team u30.5 (Tom), FG under 52.5 (Chip), UW 1H +4.5 (Danny) | 33:11–36:25 | | LSU @ Ole Miss | LSU pk/+1.5 (Bud), 1H under 27.5 (Chip) | 37:55–39:59 | | Oregon @ Penn State | Oregon +3.5 (Tom, Danny), Under 52.5 (Chip) | 43:25–46:56 | | Alabama @ Georgia | Over 52.5 (Chip, Tom, Danny), Under 52.5 (Bud) | 51:03–58:22 | | Texas A&M/Auburn | Over 52 (Chip), A&M -6.5 (Tom), Auburn +6.5 (Danny) | 62:53–66:23 |

---

Final Thoughts

Week 5 brings one of the best cards of the season, with the Cover 3 crew combining data-driven insight and CFB passion to deliver clear, actionable picks. Their lively discussion—spanning betting angles, injury analysis, and sarcasm-laced friendly fire—offers listeners (including those who missed the episode) an entertaining and comprehensive primer for a huge college football weekend.

---

[For further details or individual game breakdowns, refer to the provided timestamps.]

Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time only, new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code cover 3 and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days, you'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App.

[Bud Elliott]

It's Kelly Clarkson here to talk all things Wayfair. The best place to buy furniture, decor.

[Chip Patterson]

And anything else you can to create.

[Bud Elliott]

A home you absolutely love.

[Chip Patterson]

I know when I shop with Wayfair.

[Bud Elliott]

I find options for every style.

[Chip Patterson]

Whether I'm feeling boho or farmhouse, modern, traditional French country, I can find exactly.

[Tom Fornelli]

What I need for my home and more.

[Chip Patterson]

No matter your space, style or budget, shop wayfair.com to make your home way more you. Wayfair. Every style, every home. Buying a car in Carvana was so.

[Bud Elliott]

Easy, I was able to finance it through them.

[Chip Patterson]

I just.

[Bud Elliott]

Whoa, wait, you mean finance?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, finance. Got pre qualified for a Carvana auto loan, entered my terms and showed from thousands of great car options all within my budget. That's cool that financing through Carvana was so easy. Financed, done. And I get to pick up my car from their Carvana vending machine tomorrow. Financed, right? That's what I said. You can spend time trying to pronounce financing or you can actually finance and buy your car. Today on Carvana financing, subject to credit approval. Additional terms and conditions may apply.

[Bud Elliott]

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli.

[Tom Fornelli]

Danny Cannell and Bud Ellio. It's your call for the best college.

[Bud Elliott]

Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Frinelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cuppa3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the COVID 3 tailgate, where, dadgum it, they are still celebrating the Sam Houston under sicko parlay. I mean, it's just when you, when you hit like that, you just got to keep. You got to keep soaking it in. And we'll do that for just a little bit more before we turn our eyes to the Week 5 slate, which is absolutely loaded. But first, a tease of an announcement. An announcement of an announcement. That's what you got yesterday. But boys, I, I miss y'. All. You know, it's. It's been a minute since we've been able to all get together as a family. Do you do. Do y' all want to go to Tallahassee?

[Bud Elliott]

Sure.

[Danny Cannell]

Love to go to Tallahassee.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I think that that'd be a lot of fun. So Cover three tailgate. Do y' all want to come to Tallahassee? Because Tallahassee, we are coming to you. You can join us for a special live presentation of the COVID 3 podcast from Madison Social. Now, I mentioned if you're going to the game, get in town, get through the traffic, get a little lunch, then come and join us for a little, you know, just nice afternoon to get ready for the Friday night events. So at 3pm Eastern time, cover three podcast live from Madison Social. There will be locks, there will be giveaways, and the drinks will be flowing to set the scene for one of the biggest games of the year on this college football calendar. It is free to enter, so show up early again. We don't need you to get tickets. We are welcoming anybody and everybody. Florida State fans, I know you're going to be there. Miami fans show up like I am, like, challenging you. We want to be able to have a little bit of everything as we look ahead to this Madison social. Tallahassee Friday, 3pm Eastern Time. No boys for us, because for Tom and I, you know, we're, we're going to be checking off a nice little college town bucket list right here. What, what should we expect?

[Bud Elliott]

Bro, you said it. Scene. It is a there. It is a great college town scene. Great vibes, good scenery. It is definitely where everybody in our audience demographic wants to be. Matt, so is a great bar. I mean, obviously they sponsored no cast for, you know, more than a decade now. Matt really gets it. It's a first class experience. Get out there, get there early. We'll have a blast.

[Danny Cannell]

You mentioned it's a great college town. They actually have a new development that was not there when I was in college that is called College Town. Madison Social is at the center, like at the heartbeat of Collegetown. And I will say this, if Collegetown existed while I was there, I might not have survived. I don't know if I would have graduated. I don't know if I would have made it through my first two years to get that third year of eligibility. It is a ton of fun. They do a block party, so they shut down the street. So after we're done, you can check out hang out at mad. So see a band. There'll be people everywhere and there is nothing better than a rivalry weekend, especially like this one. It is going to be electric. Cannot wait for this atmosphere and can't wait to meet fans. When I was there last time, when we were there with the pregame show, I heard a lot of COVID three guys coming up and saying, who's gonna win the. Who's. Who's gonna win the. What's the room? The. The Room Bowl.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, the Escape Room.

[Danny Cannell]

Escape Room bowl. We had some cover 3 fans come up and ask me, so I better see those guys there to see us discuss one of the coaches that was in the escape Room bowl that came out on top. The winner of that one will be us squaring off against us. So we love seeing our Cover 3 fans out in the road. Make sure you spread the word. Definitely come check us out.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Congratulations to Mario Crystal Ball. He pulled the chain on the light bulb which actually opened up the drawer where the key was in so he was able to get out. Congratulations on being able to figure that one out right there. Again, that is going to be next Friday, October 3rd, in advance of Florida State and Miami. Cover three podcasts live from Madison Social in Tallahassee. 3pm is when we get started. Then they've got to start setting up for the block party. But we are going to hang out with. We want to come and meet you. We'll have trivia, we'll have giveaways. Lots and lots of fun. Again, 3pm Eastern time that Friday afternoon. Cover three live from Tallahassee, free to enter, so come get your seats early. How's everybody doing in the splash contest?

[Danny Cannell]

Crushing it.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm 40th out of 6,500.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, you are.

[Bud Elliott]

And what's his name?

[Chip Patterson]

Eh?

[Bud Elliott]

Gator's dad on Twitter is 22 and 2 and will not stop giving him about how he's 22 and 2 against the spread. So he's like EDM me. He's like, you only joined because I told him to and now he's 22 and 2 and want something to hear about it.

[Chip Patterson]

For those listening at home right now in first place. So is that his Twitter handle for the ghog?

[Bud Elliott]

If the dad has Twitter.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't know if the dad watches the show. If he does, like, we got to get his name. But I mean, 22 and two against the spread is ridiculous.

[Chip Patterson]

22 and two, that's what we got in first place, 26 points. Because remember, you can get the bonus points for the locks we've got Gamecocks 492 currently holding down second place solo. A group tied at third. Colin JR Witt, Mr. Brownstone. And then it starts to get a little bit more jumbled up. I did scroll to see Bud, I think you are the highest score of our of the hosts here I think in the three hundreds right now sitting on like 18 points. So that and look I started off way back in the 4,000. So you, you get, you put together a couple good weeks then, then you can start to start to get things moving. All right, before we look ahead, let's look back at the week that was week four. The COVID three locks pod. We start with Bud Elliott. It was a six and five week. The wins included Houston minus four and a half, Miami first half minus nine and a half. Arkansas plus seven and a half. The Oregon State. Wait. Yeah, yeah. All right. Week four Michigan minus one and a half. It was, this was a five and seven week. Excuse me. Michigan minus one and a half. Florida, Miami first half under 26. The Michigan State, USC over 55 and a half. Temple plus 24 and a half. Virginia first half minus eight and a half. The losses were Iowa, Rutgers under 47. That's a lock fight loss against Tom. The Illinois plus six and a half. The Louisiana, Eastern Michigan under 51, UTEP minus five and a half. Georgia State plus 27 and a half. South Carolina first half under seven and a half and Southern Miss plus three and a half first five and seven week. What are we taking away?

[Bud Elliott]

Got to be better obviously. So most of these I think were like most of the losses were just not good bets. I didn't see Vandy pouring on Georgia State. I'm pretty high on Vandy this year and like they're even better than I realized they were. The one that I think I'm really annoyed with is the Golden Eagles. They outgame Louisiana tech by like 220 yards and lost on the field. I if you told me that I'm taking the three and a half every time there. Iowa, Rutgers, like apparently Rutgers you just use like walk ons for offensive lineman. Doesn't matter. They're just going to score. And Iowa's defense is, Iowa's defense is finally crap that like they're, they're not good at all.

[Chip Patterson]

Maybe more on that later.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Five and seven for the week has Butt at 21 and 22 for the season. For Chip it was a 10 in three week. The wins were Texas Tech, Utah first half, under 29 and a half, Michigan minus one and a half. The Auburn, Oklahoma under 47 and a half. Indiana first half minus three. Illinois, Indiana over 52 and a half. Miami first half minus four and a half. USC team total over 37 and a half. The Sam Houston team total first half under two and a half. Virginia minus 14 and a half. North NC State, Duke over 57 and a half. The losses were SMU, TCU over 64, Missouri team total over 29 and a half and Tulane plus 12 and a half. You know, you, you remember the losses more. That's what the greats will tell you. And I mean dk, we had a, we had an end zone interception. You know, we had, we. Granted we had some bananas like 500 balls jackpot that were pulled down as well. But it, the game had had enough yards and enough back and forth. I thought we were going to get the iron skillet over there. So that was. Yeah, we'll see. We've. We've got other games to move ahead. 10 and three for the week has me at 26 and 21 for the season. Danny. It was a four and six week. The wins were Oklahoma minus six and a half. The Texas Tech, Utah under 57 and a half. Arkansas, Memphis over 62 and a half. Florida State minus 45 and a half. Took a L on Utah minus three. Michigan, Nebraska under 46 and a half. Illinois plus six and a half, Florida plus eight, USC minus 17 and a half. SMU, TCU over 64 as mentioned. What are we taking away?

[Danny Cannell]

Florida and Illinois Bad plays would not take those again. The Utah one. It'd be nice if Kyle Whittingham could give us a little injury updates, give us some information. There maybe would have played that one differently had I known their quarterback missed two days of practice. Other than that, feel pretty good.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, that is four and six for the week, 20 and 21 for the season. Tom Plugging along five and four week wins on Iowa, Rutgers over 46 and a half. Florida, Miami under 51 and a half. Oklahoma minus six and a half. Sam Houston Team total under seven, USC Team total over 37 and a half. The losses were Nebraska plus two and a half. Texas Tech Utah over 57 and a half. Missouri minus nine and a half. Purdue plus 25 and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Nothing really. Just the Mizzou nine and a half hurt finished at nine. They missed a couple extra points. Purdue 25 and a half hurt, they lost by 26. Although I mean in, in real life I got him at 27 and a half when it first opened. So I I actually won, but not on the show, so that sucked. Nebraska two and a half was not nearly as close as the final score suggests. And then, yeah, kind of along with what Danny was saying, I would have appreciated the knowledge about Dampier when I took the over 57 and a half in that game.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, Utah DNB for the time being. Are we going to do not bet just like.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I think they're back on the list.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. You think he's playing this week?

[Chip Patterson]

I'm not betting it. Five and four for the season has Tom at 21 and 14 rocking along in first place. All right, that week behind us, we got to turn to a loaded week five slate ahead. And so I ask, gentlemen, are you all ready to lock it up?

[Tom Fornelli]

Y.

[Bud Elliott]

Let's do this thing.

[Tom Fornelli]

Since 2005, the under in games between service is 49.

[Danny Cannell]

Give me an over in this one as well.

[Bud Elliott]

A little two for one special. I was a sicko last week. Y' all were watching good games. I was live betting the hell out of UL in Kentucky. My blue plate special.

[Chip Patterson]

Five star locks are coming. Five star master lock. Lock it up. I'm. I'm. I'm living and dying.

[Bud Elliott]

Every, every point, every cover.

[Chip Patterson]

From the locking chair to your eyes and ears, a reminder that locks are sponsored all season long by Cash App. Making money moves should be easy. And that's why there's Cash app. It's fast, safe, and honestly, way more personalized than other apps out there. Our thanks to Cash App for sponsoring the locks this season. And they will be the presenting sponsor of the locks trophy, the Chase for the locks trophy, of course. Currently Tom Fornelli in the lead. All right, let's dive into, as we always do, the weeknight games. First, just one on Thursday. We got ECU and Army. Who's got a lock? I've got a thought. I don't have a lock. Tough, tough matchup sandwich where you've got the sort of physical nature, it's not total body blow theory, but you played against BYU last week and now on short rest, you've got to defend the triple on Army. I don't, I don't love that. And whether you want to attack that with an army or whether you want to attack that with army team total over. You know, there, there's a lot of different ways that you could try to, you know, play off of the idea that for ecu, you'd gotten all hyped up for this Saturday night game against byu. I thought the Cougars handled their business nicely in that Game and then short rest, tough prep. I, I don't, I don't love it for the boys in Greenville right there.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. My Twitter tip is army in the points along the lines of what you were thinking of playing BYU now being on a short week, having to play an option team. And then just last year ecu played both army and navy. Lost the army 45 to 28, lost to navy 34, 20. So both offenses were able to move the ball quite a bit on them last season.

[Bud Elliott]

Shoot.

[Chip Patterson]

Now I'm, now I'm gonna end up taking this, not locking it up, but I mean just you know, a little, a little action for, for Thursday night. Then Friday night, Florida State on the road taken on Virginia. We've also got TCU and Arizona State. Let's see who's got, yeah, that, yeah. Then Houston and Oregon State. I knew there was a third game. Who's got a lock for Friday night?

[Bud Elliott]

We're betting the Noles.

[Chip Patterson]

Just laying it.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. So look, I, I bet UVA first half and a little bit full game last week and that was rocking chair easy. I, I don't think I'm exceptionally down on the CVA team. I, I, I've had them fairly well pegged for this year but I have not been super impressed with them. I, I think they're a, they're like a non basement ACC team that has a veteran quarterback but I don't know, they have a lot of defensive speed honestly, like in NC State looked really fast in scoring 38 on them. The other thing to watch for here is the center for them. Brady Wilson is like maybe the best center in the acc. He is not allowed a single pressure all year. I was looking on our friends at stats bomb at the charts and also when he's in there, the guards are extremely good at pass pro. When he's not, the guards are like big red columns as far as pressures allowed. So yeah, they listed him as questionable. He was on the sideline last week with a big rap on his leg. If he's out, I don't think that's good. You have to block Daryl Jackson at all. So I'm going to lay it with FSU here.

[Chip Patterson]

Anybody else?

[Danny Cannell]

This game, this game really, really scares me. And you got Miami next week. Everybody's going. Game day's going. Cover three podcast is going to. I think the Knowles either lose or they win by two touchdowns or more. They're going to win by two touchdowns or more. I think this team is focused. I think this team has a killer mentality. This is a completely different mindset than they were last year. I think they come out hot. I also will lock up a little two for one special and take the over in this game. Over 59 and a half. I think Florida State scores a lot. Virginia can put up some points. I don't think they'll put enough. Enough to cover, but I think it's a higher scoring game. I think Florida State's offense shines again. They got a lot of speed out there. Gus is in his bag. I think they show up ready to go.

[Chip Patterson]

And. Well, no, hold on. So agreement for the spread for Danny and Bud. Danny's going full game over. I'm on Florida State team total over. Catch this. 33 and a half. I think that getting up into the mid high 30s makes sense given what we've seen from Virginia so far, the Chandler Morris of it all and whether Florida State's defense is, you know, dialed in or caught flat footed. Look ahead, spot. I mean, that, that's communication, that's mentality. Right. You know, just those sorts of things. Could be a total coin flip as I'm sitting here on Thursday afternoon. So I will go with the part that I feel comfortable about in the matchup, and that is Gus Malzahn, Tommy Castellanos, who's dancing in the locker room. So he must be fine. We're. We're going to go with Florida State to be able to get over 33 and a half. Anything else?

[Danny Cannell]

Just. I'm just appreciative of all the people that are reminding me of what happened the last time I was in Charlottesville on a Thursday night. Number one team in the country.

[Tom Fornelli]

What happened?

[Danny Cannell]

I'm just stirring.

[Bud Elliott]

Just.

[Danny Cannell]

Just bringing up old wounds.

[Tom Fornelli]

You're the one who brought it up. I don't even know what we're talking about.

[Chip Patterson]

They did him dirty.

[Danny Cannell]

Dirty.

[Chip Patterson]

They did it showing the clips. We were doing our top clips of what?

[Tom Fornelli]

What happened?

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, my God, you're joking, right?

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, this is what. I don't know what the hell we're.

[Tom Fornelli]

Talking about right now.

[Danny Cannell]

History of college football and the acc. The first loss Florida State ever suffered in the ACC as the number one team in the country.

[Tom Fornelli]

You played in that game, Tom.

[Bud Elliott]

Deadpanning. This is amazing.

[Danny Cannell]

It is.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey, let's see.

[Danny Cannell]

There's no way like that game took place in 1995. There's no way I could be old enough to have played in that game. So I get why you're surprised by it. Yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

I was just a wee little boy. I don't Remember that happening at all?

[Chip Patterson]

I, I, I think I remember it. 90, 93, 94 are my first, like, memories of COVID like, ACC football. And so I remember it being a thing, you know, Florida State's first ACC loss.

[Bud Elliott]

It's also on a call.

[Danny Cannell]

Yes.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, that worked.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, like, unbelievable.

[Danny Cannell]

If they had replays in the end zone.

[Bud Elliott]

If they had replay. This doesn't happen. Like, literally, it's not one of the ones that was close.

[Chip Patterson]

And I don't know if you saw it in the tailgate time, but do you remember how many pass attempts DK had?

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, it's 1995. I'm gonna guess he had at least 11 or 12.

[Chip Patterson]

You want to tell him 67.

[Danny Cannell]

67.

[Chip Patterson]

67.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

It was the dumbest game plan by Mark Craig.

[Danny Cannell]

Al Gro was it came out there and dropped eight all game long. They. It was like, you. No one did that. Like, no one rushed three and dropped eight into coverage. And we just kept throwing it. Kept throwing it. And we should have been running the ball because we had work done in the backfield.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

67.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. All right. Anybody else going with anybody going with the tcu? Arizona State?

[Danny Cannell]

I am.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Yeah, let's hear it.

[Danny Cannell]

Oh, I kind of want to hear Bud go first.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm taking tcu.

[Danny Cannell]

Let the children sing.

[Bud Elliott]

Come on. I don't think Arizona State should have won that game against Baylor. I thought Baylor was the better team on the field, and tcu, to me, other than just screwing around at the last minute, was pretty dominant against the SMU team that I think is, you know, the equal of Arizona State. So I've seen TCU play at a higher level here. I don't think Arizona State's run game is very good. So I. I think tcu, I. I think this game should be picked. So if you're giving me three, I'm.

[Danny Cannell]

Gonna take it three and a half or three. I had three and a half before this.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't see any three and a half, but if you can get that good on you.

[Tom Fornelli]

There's one three and a half out there, but it's very heavily juiced.

[Danny Cannell]

Gotcha. Then I'll take the three because the same thing. Josh Hoover is playing as good as anybody out there. It's crazy that I actually trust him a little bit more than I trust Sam Levitt and Jordan Tyson. I still think they need to show a little bit more. They're a little bit balanced. I think TCU's defense is better. So I like TCU here.

[Chip Patterson]

Do you know who else thinks that Arizona State might not have been the better team? Kenny Dillingham. Did you see his postgame press conference? He was just like, we cannot win games like that. We cannot win games like that. I mean in college football, sometimes it happens. We cannot win games like that.

[Danny Cannell]

That's a pretty good horse. Kenny Dillingham voice which is pretty good.

[Chip Patterson]

He does a lot of like this right here. He's got some like bobblehead to him.

[Bud Elliott]

Very good.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. All right. And then no, no, no one wants to take Houston. Just laying the wood to the beeves. I don't want to. I mean that's a self care. We got to be in studio Saturday.

[Bud Elliott]

So that's a very, very weird like why are they playing this game in the middle of conference season? Was this scheduled back when like the Pac 12 was, you know, more of a big time? You see what I'm saying? Yeah, I like, I just don't know if I, if I feel that at.

[Chip Patterson]

The risk of derailing the locks episode with talks about scheduling and scheduling contracts, I just think Oregon State needed as many willing takers as possible to be able to fill out a schedule until they get the PAC 12. So this is how you wind up probably with Houston coming to town Friday night, 10:30.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like are they paying Houston to come to town?

[Chip Patterson]

I true that. I'm asking. We're asking the question.

[Bud Elliott]

Houston or Oregon State fans in the chat, they'll probably know, like maybe it's a two for one thing.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

But I don't recall Oregon State playing at Houston.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, we are going to get the return visit. I'd forgotten until I did my research this week that Missouri played at UMass last year. We get the return for that one again. So lots more to come. All right. Coming up on the other side, we do turn our attention to Saturday. We'll get things started with some of those headliners including Ohio State's trip out west and Penn State welcoming in Oregon at latest chapter in Alabama, Georgia and more next.

[Tom Fornelli]

Let's face it, after a night with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is until I found pre alcohol zbiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Every time I have pre alcohol before drinks, I notice a difference the next day. Even after a night out, I can confidently plan on going to the gym or golfing the next day without worry. Fall is right around the corner, so that means it's time to raise a glass to your favorite team. Whether you're tailgating, enjoying a college game day, or watching Sunday's action on the fancy new TV. Don't forget ZBiotics pre alcohol probiotic Drink. Drink a pre alcohol before drinking and enjoy great days after celebrating all season long. Go to ZBiotics.com cover to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use cover at checkout. Zebiotics is backed with 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to ZBiotics.com cover and use the code COVER at checkout for 15% off.

[Chip Patterson]

15 FanDuel's getting you ready for the NFL season with an offer you don't want to miss. New customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right, pick a bet, bet five bucks, and if it wins, you'll unlock 300 bucks in bonus bets to use all across the app. You can build parlays, bet player props, ride the livelines. Whatever your style, fanduel has you covered. The NFL season is almost here. The only question is, are you ready to play? Visit FanDuel.com cover to download the FanDuel app today and get started.

[Tom Fornelli]

Must be 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana. Permitted parishes only Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Wyoming. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. First online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued is now withdrawable. Bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply. See [e-mail] Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GamblingR or visit fanduel.com RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia, call 1-800-next step or text NextStep to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chadinconnecticut 1-809with it in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877770 stop in Louisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1-800gambler.net in West Virginia or call 1-800-522-47 00 in Wyoming, hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7Support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-Hopeny or text hopeny in New York or visit oasas.ny.gov Gambling Standard Text messaging rate supply Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Utah and other states where prohibited.

[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast, rolling through our locks for Saturday in week five. Let's begin out in Champagne where it's ranked on ranked with USC going to play Illinois, Trojans are four and oh, coming off their second conference win of the season, getting it done against Michigan State. They were up late on Saturday and now they're playing early here. 12 noon Eastern time. Illinois, of course, looking to get back off the mat from the game against Indiana. Can't remember the score, don't need to revisit it. Who's got a lock?

[Tom Fornelli]

I do.

[Bud Elliott]

I want to hear this.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, USC minus six and a half. I mean, Illinois secondary is still banged up and USC can throw the ball around a little bit. I know Jacoby Lane status is still in question. He may not play. That will matter. And I, I do think that, you know, body clocks matter a bit, but they don't matter nearly as much as body blows. And Illinois has taken a whole hell of a lot of body blows in the last week or two. So I just don't know if I have enough faith in that defense to get stops. I think Illinois will do a better job of moving the ball and scoring themselves against this USC defense than they did Indiana. I just don't know how many stop cops are going to really, truly be capable of getting here. So give me USC minus six and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

So the nickel who's a great tackler. We talked about going to the Duke gang. He's out for a while, right?

[Tom Fornelli]

He's probably out for the year. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Like two more starters are out.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Jaheim Clark has been out all season. There was hope he would be back last week. He didn't play. There's still hope he's back this week. Matthew Bailey, they're starting safety. He's been in concussion protocol during the week. I don't know what his status is yet.

[Chip Patterson]

Just.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, they're pretty banged up back there. And also Tory Cox, one of their backup corners who came in last week, got hurt in that game and is out for this one, so.

[Bud Elliott]

And the targeting guy was. First half.

[Tom Fornelli]

His first half.

[Bud Elliott]

He'll be back, assuming he didn't get hurt on the bench.

[Tom Fornelli]

Correct?

[Chip Patterson]

Correct.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know. Some of those benches, man, they got some jagged edges. You catch them in the wrong spot.

[Bud Elliott]

You ain't lying, man.

[Chip Patterson]

Anybody? Anybody else gonna tackle this one?

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Danny Cannell]

Let the children sing for everything. Tom said. I think this a great litmus test for usc. I think they're a really good football team. I think they're very much in the mix for the playoffs. This is sort of. All right, show it to me. By the way, how many times did Altmire get sacked in that game? 7. USC. I told him last week. Didn't work out for me against Michigan State, but they still added a couple sacks. I think they're able to pressure Luke Altmire. I think they're able to put up a lot of points under a touchdown. I like it here.

[Chip Patterson]

What. What do we think about a first half under the body clock?

[Danny Cannell]

The slow start.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. And catch it at like 30 and a half. I was just. Do you know what I was thinking about tomorrow? I was thinking about you saying that we might see Illinois just want to limit possessions, you know?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, for sure. I do think they're going to lean into their run game more, but the run game has not been all that impactful. But that plays to your.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, let's do it. First half, under 30 and a half. Yeah, I think I. I think that there's just a general approach here and if you can throw the body clock in there, too. But it's just, if I'm thinking about how does Illinois win this football game, I. I do not think that trying to give USC's offense a ton of possessions to throw it on your banged up and depleted secondary is a path to. Is a path to victory. So, yeah, let's. Let's take that. Let's take that. First half. Under 30 and a half. All right. Anything else on USC, Illinois?

[Bud Elliott]

I. I think Tom's analysis makes sense.

[Tom Fornelli]

I just.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't know if I trust, like, I was not super impressed by USC against Michigan State.

[Chip Patterson]

That's fair. Hey, they Scored enough though. All right, let's move on into the 3:30 slate where big time heads out to Seattle for the sail gaten and Husky Stadium as the Ohio State Buckeyes take on Washington. We are sitting in a situation where it's Washington against the number one team in the country. Not a lot of success. Are. Are the Buckeyes on upset alert Because Washington. This is one of the largest margins between how many points per game one team is averaging which would be the Washington Huskies. I think are at 55 point. Let's see 55.7 points per game for Washington. Ohio State 5.3 points per game allowed. That is the fourth largest gap between scoring offense and scoring defense in any game since 1950. Minimum of three games each. So what's going to happen here? We got a spread of about eight and a half or so total around 52 and a half. Who's got a luck?

[Chris]

I do.

[Tom Fornelli]

All right, start us off. Ohio State team total under 30 and a half. I think Ohio State's going to win obviously by my analysis. You could also like the. The game under. I don't know if they'll cover my. My overall theory thought is we saw this offense struggle in the opener against Texas. Washington's defense is. It's not Texas but Julian saying is going on the road to play in Husky Stadium which is a very difficult place to play. It is very loud. You can't really hear yourself think. I. I don't know exactly where Julian played in high school, but I'm guessing he never played in a stadium like this and he's never been on the road as a starter in a stad this either. When he's playing at Ohio State they're quiet for Ohio State's offense. That will not be the case here. I think that could lead to some struggles early and I think that Ohio State's run game hasn't really been super effective to this point all year. So I can. I have some concern about that there if they have to put more in the passing game. So I. I think Ohio State wins. I do not think it's pretty so I'm going to take their team total under.

[Chip Patterson]

I like the full game under 52 and a half. Right. Is that what we're looking at? Yeah, I'll go full game under 52 and a half. I think that for Ohio State in this spot it is a run the football play great defense. Demond Williams is dangerous and I think that, you know, out of that there's going to be a lot of respect Play paid and letting. I mean, Ohio State's linebackers and safeties are awesome. You know, you just, you sit back there and you really make Washington earn everything. Don't, don't give up those explosive plays that they've been able to get on the way to averaging 55 points per game. So with a, you know, run the ball, play great defense. I like the full game under.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm.

[Chip Patterson]

Laying it with Ohio State.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I really wanted to like this Washington team this year. I just don't like what I've seen from them. I thought Wazoo's quarterback moved it on him pretty good bit saying has been incredibly accurate. I, I think Washington, like, I, I thought Washington had a shot to make the playoff this year if everything went right. Like you could paint the picture. But I don't think everything's gone right from an injury standpoint. And I don't think they have the horses to run with Ohio State here. I mean, I, I'm sure Fish will scheme up some, but I don't think that they're in the same class athletically. So I'm going to go ahead and lay it with the Buckeyes. I think they win by 14.

[Tom Fornelli]

Well, I get you seven and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, that will work.

[Danny Cannell]

I'll take, let me take Washington first half plus four and a half because I do think this could be a game where you sort of start slowish. You know, you mentioned scheming up some big things. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington maybe does hit a big player too early. See a first half of like 13 to 10, you know, somewhere in there where Ohio State could be leading. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington's leading at halftime. As Julian saying, Ohio State's kind of get used to playing on the road. So I do think the Horses maybe take over late.

[Bud Elliott]

One note, and not, not to give away any kind of edge on this, but this is a pretty good live betting game. Fish is a very good scripter. It would not shock me if they come out and score early, but I do think Ohio State is, you know, pretty damn good at adjustments. They have real people on the back end. I don't think you're going to give up a ton of like free explosives. Everybody on that back end can really run. So, you know, if Washington comes out, they get the ball first, they score early. You, you can scoop in Ohio State like minus four and a half. I, I think that's unload the clip.

[Chip Patterson]

I think we. Somebody in the tailgate gets it. So if you want to treasure map this, you want to go with a Washington first half, an Ohio State full game, and then if you. I mean, I like that there as one way to get to the gold, but if you really want to chase the big treasure chest, then throw in a little Ohio State team total under and full game under. That one. That one could be the full get. Gets you sweating all the way. All the way through the end of four quarters out there in Seattle. Again, the game, you can watch it on cbs, you can stream it on Paramount. Plus it will be Gary and Brad and Jenny on the call. Should be a great time. 3:30pm Eastern time. Kickoff. Also in that afternoon window, we've got the Magnolia bowl, this time in Oxford. It is LSU against Ole Miss. Meeting as ranked opponents, I believe, for the third straight year. Who's got a lock?

[Bud Elliott]

Tigers.

[Chip Patterson]

Whoa.

[Bud Elliott]

I. I don't think anybody has blitzed Ole Miss at all. And Trinidad has looked pretty good against two defense that just dropped everybody. I don't think anybody's had the nuts to try to cover Ole Miss, honestly. I think LSU's got real guys who can cover. I think they're nickel. Shoot. What's his name? He was awesome. Against Clemson. Harvey Halsey. I forgot the kid's name. I've been watching a lot of their. They're all 22. That kid's a stud. I think they have some interesting pieces who match up really well with Ole Miss here. And I don't think Ole Miss defensive line can give them problems like Clemson in Florida could. I don't think Ole Miss's bodies look like Clemson in Florida. So I'm going to go ahead and take LSU here. I just hope that Hope Nussmeier is healthy enough to. To pitch it around.

[Chip Patterson]

Are we gonna have Nussmeyer on Izzy healthy watch for the rest of the season?

[Danny Cannell]

Sure sounds like it.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Unless he breaks out this game, which he might.

[Tom Fornelli]

AJ Halsey.

[Bud Elliott]

Halsey. There we go.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. You had it.

[Tom Fornelli]

13. When you watch tape, you just know.

[Bud Elliott]

Yes. I was like, okay, this dude's good.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. I'm gonna go with the LSU Ole Miss first half. Under 28 and a half. I think that this is a. This is a matchup. That. Because of the sort of common idea of LSU and Ole Miss and the fact that they've played these 56 to 49 back and forth, who can. Who's got the ball last? I just don't think that's representative of the teams that they've been this year. LSU not as explosive offensively while also being improved defensively and while Ole Miss is able to, you know, go out there and has found some success with Trinidad Chambers at quarterback and I don't find it a group that is going to intimidate lsu, which Bud might go with your LSU play as well. It could get, you know, super tight game could get a little silly, could get a little loose. But early on I don't see either of these offenses having a ton of success. So I'll go first half under 28 and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

You still wanted a 27 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Because that's where it is.

[Bud Elliott]

All right, Chip, we have some expert opinion here. Disagrees with you a little bit.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Bud Elliott]

We are going rapid fire for some Ole Miss and Vandy pick says the dentist Ole Miss LSU over 54 and a half in the last 10 years. This game has gone under the number only one time 48 points in 2021. Add that to the fact that Kiffin's response this week to seeing in his daughter in the lap of an LSU linebacker was to take the over. Yes sir coach. Also LSU + 1 1/2 siren emotional hedge siren emoji. To win this game, Ole Miss will have to take advantage of LSU's weakness which is their offensive line. I haven't seen a lot from this Ole Miss defensive line unit to make me think they can control this game. They have four sacks in four games so far. I hope I lose this bet badly, but LSU is more talented and you get points. Moneyline sprinkle spot as well. I'll gladly pay to lose this bet.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, Vandy.

[Bud Elliott]

Yes, also some Vandy. Vandy minus 22 and a half. This team is physically abusing every team they play. I have been riding them like a donkey this year and I'm not stopping now. I was hoping for a slightly lower line, 21 or under due to concern for look ahead spot to Alabama and pulling players. So I fully expect a backdoor sweat here. Also vanity team total over 41 and a half vanities averaging 48 points per game this year and 58 points for his non power four teams. The new home atmosphere has been on fire this year and I expect another good crowd even at the 11:45 time slot. I'll be there sipping a vodka oat milk watching this one. Cash in the third quarter to the emoji lock emoji. Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Now the dentist so far this year is one in four. So he's been. He's been finding a lot of mysterious cavities that might not actually be There. She's like, oh, hey, look, we might have to do something about this right here. We don't. If we don't address this right now, this could become a real problem in a few months.

[Bud Elliott]

So let's just do it now.

[Chip Patterson]

I'm sorry, Dr. Dennis. This is my. My child is only five. That tooth is going to fall out. Is it really?

[Bud Elliott]

No, no, no, no, no. I think I told you this. I. I called him.

[Chip Patterson]

You called the dentist?

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, you called three years ago. Like, Liam, he face planted in. In, like, the bed frame, and it.

[Chip Patterson]

Was like, is that when he needed the popsicle to be able to ice the wound, but also, like, calm him down?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. And I was like. I called. I called him. I was like, hey. He's like, dude, it's a baby tooth. Unless you think there's, like. If it's, like, really jammed up and gonna damage the gum, don't sweat it. They'll either reattach or fall out early. Yeah, we don't. We're not. We're not putting fake teeth in a kid. It's like, right.

[Chip Patterson]

There you go. Except for now, when you're one and four, and now all of a sudden, you magically have to do all this.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, now they do, man.

[Chip Patterson]

Anything else?

[Bud Elliott]

He's an Ole Miss man. He's putting like. Like Trinidad. Trinidad James.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. He's been all gold.

[Tom Fornelli]

Everything.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Don't believe me. Just watch. All right, anybody else got. Anybody else got an LSU Ole Miss lock? All right, then, on to prime time in Happy Valley. White out conditions. Oregon coming to town against Penn State. We have detailed the breakdown for this game. So now the most important question is, is who's got a lock? All right, let's hear it.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oregon plus three and a half. Just believe it when I see it kind of bet here. I. I believe Oregon. I don't quite believe in Penn State yet. And I know it's a wide out. I know it's going to be a crazy atmosphere. I know Penn State has won six straight wideouts, but I think only two of the teams they've played in those games have actually been ranked, and I think they were like, 24 and 17. This is another top 10 team. And we all know James Franklin's record against top 10 teams, including when his team is in the top 10. I just like what I have seen from Oregon a lot more than what I have seen from Penn State. I am ready to be proven wrong if Penn State wants to do so, but until I am. No, give me the Ducks.

[Chip Patterson]

Who else Just Tom, I, I think.

[Bud Elliott]

It'S, I think it's well priced.

[Chip Patterson]

Are we still at 52 and a half?

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Somebody just throwing one on over this morning. Yeah, 52 and a half. Yeah, there's a little 52 out there if you want that.

[Chip Patterson]

No, no, I'm actually, I'm, I'm sniffing the under.

[Bud Elliott]

Somebody just popped. Oh, okay.

[Chip Patterson]

What?

[Bud Elliott]

Somebody at one of those offshores. That'll take big time money just popped, Pop. Penn State moved it from 10 to 17.

[Chip Patterson]

I'll go ahead and lock it up. No, no, no. If I'm going to sniff it, I might as well take a bite. Yeah, I think that the Penn State playing at home in with the crowd and everything else, there's a. This is not going to be a game that plays out similar to the 45, 37 track meet that we saw in Indy. You know, I just think they lean on their defense. I wouldn't be surprised if some of that conservative approach that has accompanied James Franklin in some of these big games ends up being a. You know, we're not exactly gonna let it rip here. We're gonna try to lean on them. Lean on them and lean on them. I think the defense is going to get after it. And then at the same time, I mean this until. What'd you say, Danny? We go back to like last September to find the last time that Drew Aller threw for more than 250 plus yards. Yeah, I'll go, I'll go under 52 and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Here's. Hold on, I gotta. I'm gonna bring up one stat here. This is from our friend the tailgate tent, who the tweet is. Now I don't know exactly how he he justified or rated this, but Drew Aller against teams with a pulse in his career. Against Ohio State in 2318 of 42, 4.5 per attempt. Michigan in 23, 10 for 23, 3 per attempt. Ole Miss in 2319 for 39, 7.6. Ohio State 2412 for 27 3. Oregon in 24, 20 for 39, 5.8 SMU. Now these are the playoff games where Penn State won 13:22, 5.8 per attempt. Against Boise 13 of 25, 6.8 per attempt. Notre Dame 12 of 23, 5.9 per attempt. The man has not played well in these games.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, that somebody commented on the Thammel story on Twitter which he had used the line great to elite or something like that. And he's like, can we get to great before we make the jump from great to elite.

[Danny Cannell]

All right, I've heard enough. Let me lock up. Let the children sing. I think the Ducks. I'm gonna go with what my eyes have told me.

[Chip Patterson]

So far.

[Danny Cannell]

The Ducks look good. They look ticked off. They still haven't lost a conference Big Ten game during the regular season. They were perfect last year. I think speed kills. I think they have more of it in this game. I'm worried about Penn State's tackles. I'll take the Ducks.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm tempted to go Penn State here, man. Tell you what. Like the, the. The last time Dante Moore played a. Played a real game on the road.

[Danny Cannell]

Three years back at UCLA as a true freshman.

[Bud Elliott]

Huh?

[Chip Patterson]

Wait, you're not supposed to say huh. Like, yeah, you're right. I mean, Danny's trying to say, like, oh, he was a different man back then.

[Bud Elliott]

He still hasn't played any kind of real road game since.

[Tom Fornelli]

You're telling me that the environment. Atlanta, Sharon Martin Stadium, along the lake shore of Lake Michigan with the wind howling and those speakers bumping.

[Bud Elliott]

Is it a little bit closer to Rice Echols in Utah in which he was 15 of 35? I. We. We haven't seen him to see if he. If he can survive getting rattled. We've not seen Decorian Moore handle somebody putting his hands on him like he's a fantastic freshman. He's probably the. Like, he's easily the most talented receiver in this game. But there, There is still a difference in, like, going on the road and dealing with actual crowd and adversity. You know Isaiah World, right? Your office tackle, like number one tackle in the transfer portal. He's played okay so far. I mean, dude, what's the biggest environment you played in at Nevada? There's a lot of new guys have never played in a big environment on this team who really didn't get many reps last year. I. They look great.

[Danny Cannell]

But you know what I've seen, though? I've seen Drew Aller at home against Ohio State last year go 12 of 20 for 146. I've seen Drew Aller in those playoff games underwhelmed. And this was my national championship pick. Like, this is the team. I thought they were going to take that next step forward. They just haven't shown it yet. Are they keeping all these tricks up their sleeve where all of a sudden magically these receivers are going to look great and Andy Colt, Nicki is going to scheme up some big plays and there's going to be marching up and down the field against the Ducks?

[Bud Elliott]

The second part of that is. Is the maybe for me. I don't think there's any chance these receivers all of a sudden emerge. Great. I do think we have seen Kodal, Nikki before scheme up some stuff where guys are just wtfo.

[Danny Cannell]

There's also just a chance, a small chance, because we have questioned Penn State's receivers three years in a row now maybe, just maybe it's not the receivers. Maybe it's the guy throwing it to him.

[Chip Patterson]

That's fine. Hold on for clarification purposes. Bud, are you jumping? Are you walking into this bar fight? Are you breaking that pool?

[Bud Elliott]

I. I think we're, like, we're getting.

[Chip Patterson]

Everybody stirred up right now.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Let's go.

[Chip Patterson]

Fight, fight. Just slide a shot of whiskey down the bars. Like, come on. Go get it. Go do it. Go do it. All right.

[Danny Cannell]

Step out in the alley.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, like we talked about on the big game breakdown, I. I do think this will be a close game. I'm not sitting here saying that I think, like, Oregon's gonna just run right the hell over him, but I. I think it's going to be close, so I'll take the three and a half points. And I also just feel like I trust Dan Lanning more in these kind of spots to be aggressive and do what it needs to take to win the game. Whereas I think James has a history of kind of going a little too conservative at times.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh.

[Danny Cannell]

Just watch out for those private school kids.

[Chip Patterson]

You want to try to make a hype video. The thing about this Oregon team is that they let it rip. If there's one team and you should have kept going, I'm not going to be that blatant about it. I was just, you know, having some fun. We appreciate our friends at Oregon who enjoy to listen. They do a fantastic job. I do enjoy those recaps and hearing the message that they have for. For every single week, be it the bull don't care or. Or whatever it is, Dante Moore will.

[Tom Fornelli]

Hear Bud calling him out, though. That is 100% for sure. Dan's going to play that for him.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I mean, neither of these coaches have a record worth of damn in big games. One of them is going to pick up a win in a big game, so somebody's going to have a winner.

[Chip Patterson]

Saturday night. Instant reaction show when we're coming on what the winning coach here has done something. Whether it's Dan Lanning on the road in a big game or James Franklin against the top six opponent. We've. We've got. We've got somebody who's doing it? Who's doing a slump? Buster.

[Tom Fornelli]

Did. Did Oregon not beat Ohio State and then beat Penn State in the Big Ten championship last year?

[Chip Patterson]

And I say on the road, I'm.

[Tom Fornelli]

Just saying I feel like those are two big wins for Dan Lanning.

[Chip Patterson]

I. I was saying true wrote it. I said I'm talking about you. Not everything is about you. Chip Patterson, of course.

[Bud Elliott]

Also Penn State at home under Franklin is pretty much nails. Yeah. As a favorite.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Alabama at Georgia 33 game. Home winning streak for the Georgia Bulldogs. Wow, that's impressive. Kirby. Smart one and six against Alabama. Yeesh. We thought we've got the dogs as a very, very narrow favorite here. Again, like a lot of these big juggernaut games, it seems like the new, the new toss it out there is 52 and a half right somewhere around there. What do we, what do we like? I like points.

[Tom Fornelli]

Over. Over.

[Chip Patterson]

This game's gonna be like last year's game. This game's gonna be like Georgia, Tennessee. This, this game's just gonna have swings. This game's just gonna have some big plays made by incredibly gifted and athletic wide receivers. And Danny, you made a great call yesterday on HQ Spotlight that it's the absence of the game changing pass rusher that you would sometimes get with these two teams. Like the, the one player who totally ruins a quarterback's night because they're still really good defenses. And you know, we've talked on the big game breakdown. Alabama secondary is really good, but man, without somebody to speed it up and some, you know, a lot, a lot of skilled talent on the perimeter. I just think both these offenses are going to be able to cook. And so I, I think this is a very low line when I could easily see both teams getting into the 30s. So I'm gonna go over lock agreement. All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't think we're gonna see what 75 points scored like we did last year in that game. I don't think it's going to be as up and down as last year's game was with Alabama jumped to the huge lead, Georgia storming back, and then the Ryan Williams touchdown. But I do think that both of these secondaries can be beaten by the receivers on both sides. You mentioned with Danny there that the past, the lack of the elite pass rusher, that's going to be a game record for either side. Yeah, I just, I know Alabama's defense was really good statistically, but I still remember how it looked against Florida State and I still remember how Georgia's secondary Looked against Tennessee and Alabama's got a couple good receivers. So I think over. And also just since 2018 they've met six times and the average game has featured 62 points.

[Chip Patterson]

So yeah, that was the other thing is when, because they keep throwing a full screen graphic up when we're talking about this game on CBS Sports HQ to show, you know, Kirby Smart and the 1 and 6. And I was just going through and looking at all the scores and I was like, well if, if this holds then we're going to see a lot of points here.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, Rose in the chat says surprised by the lack of hype on this game. I didn't even know this was this week until yesterday. I, I think it's like, like the collective conscious that they're still really good teams but they're not what they were four or five years ago, you know what I'm saying? Like, like they're very clearly would get whipped by like the better Bama teams or the better Georgia teams from a half decade ago, I think.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, I think we've seen Alabama lose as a double digit favorite like four times in the last nine games. So you're just not the monster you used to be in Georgia.

[Bud Elliott]

And Georgia didn't have knockback against Tennessee. Like normally when, when Georgia plays, you see the underline scrimmage going the wrong way.

[Chip Patterson]

Right.

[Bud Elliott]

And we didn't see that against the balls. The balls just held their own.

[Chip Patterson]

Now Georgia, great win. Right? And we talked about that on the reaction show.

[Bud Elliott]

That's why they're not thudding you like they used to. They used to push you around like you felt them. And I don't think you feel Georgia anymore. Right now.

[Chip Patterson]

They're both different.

[Bud Elliott]

Saturday night, maybe it gets clipped on a hype video.

[Danny Cannell]

You guys know what this is?

[Tom Fornelli]

I was gonna say it's a football, but I don't know what that is.

[Danny Cannell]

This is a, this is a trophy. And that's my trophy case right behind me where I keep my club championship trophies, the titles that are back there. There is a trophy on the line for this one. And right now Tom and Chip are leading. They're 47 and 35 combined. I'm gonna hop in with them because I think these guys are right. Give me Latifah here. I'm not falling another game behind. Too many athletes on the field. We've Kaylin DeBoer, we saw him explode last week with a ton of points. I trust both of these quarterbacks. It's crazy because I kind of like Ty Simpson. Coming into this game better than Gunner Stockton, but he showed me a lot what he did on the road, the ability to make the play down the field. He's also got the ability to make plays with his legs. I think this game has a lot of points. I'm on the over as well.

[Bud Elliott]

Is this because you like the offenses or because you think that neither team can run? So it's going to funnel more to a pass game.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like the.

[Chip Patterson]

I like.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I like the wide receivers for both. I mean, just, you know, just big game. You know, something routine becomes not routine, like real fast. So. Love that there. So, bud, nothing here.

[Bud Elliott]

No, I. I really want to see. So it looks like Ernest Green's not going to play for Georgia. That's their left tackle. You know, I. I don't think that's great. Honestly. I. I wanted. I'll probably lie bet this. I'll probably have a second half play, but I think there's so many different ways this could go. You know, Stockton, he made like one pretty nice throw and the rest was kind of all right, you know? Okay, enough. I. I do think Bama can. I think Bama's receivers or. Sorry. I think Bama's dbs can really cover, you know, so, like, that's. I want to see Georgia prove that and I want to see Simpson throw the ball on time against a better defense. You know, I like Bama's offensive line. Looks like Tarzan, but more often than not, in these big games, they've been playing like Jane. I want to see him actually play well. So Juan Gaston looks like they're gonna play left tackle. According to the chat, that guy's a future NFL pick for sure. Like, if you watched him as a freshman, he's a stud. You know, our guys there at Jordan at dogs247 told us all about him. But still, like freshman left tackle who's been a guard for you. Doesn't seem like a great situation for me.

[Chip Patterson]

But if not to write narratives before they happen, because obviously the game will dictate how we talk about it. I. I will go back to Kirby telling us before the season. Fine.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm gonna fight you guys. Give me under.

[Chip Patterson]

Whoa, hold on. Wait. Yeah. All right.

[Bud Elliott]

I think both. I think both these back ends can really run. Fight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Fight.

[Bud Elliott]

Wow. Yeah. I think both these back ends can really run. I think both teams have pass protection issues. I think they're going to try to protect their quarterback for a lot of short stuff and maybe try to establish the run early. So give me the under. Disgusting. You guys wanted to pick. There's a pick. Let's go.

[Tom Fornelli]

I thought we were friends on this show. I don't. You know what? I don't know that I want to go to Tallahassee anymore next week. I don't know if I can look Bud in the face after this.

[Bud Elliott]

We're gonna switch the time from 3pm to high noon. My plane should land by then, so.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, coming up on the other side, we open up the card all of our week five locks plus Moneyline sprinkles and more nukes.

[Tom Fornelli]

This show is sponsored by Better Help. We turn to some funny places for support, but not everyone is a therapist. Not everyone is the one Find your right match with better Help We've all done it before, turning to our barista, our barber, or sometimes even our pets for life advice as fun as they are to talk to with about everyday topics. When you're looking for help about relationships, anxiety, depression or other clinical issues, they may not have all the right answers. Instead, get guidance from a credentialed therapist online with BetterHelp. When I share my problems with the group chat, I usually get a heart emoji or an LOL in response. It's not exactly the support I'm looking for, and it certainly isn't as helpful as talking to a clinically trained and credentialed therapist like the ones at BetterHelp. BetterHelp has been helping people find their match for over 10 years and has a 4.9 rating out of 1.7 million client session reviews. Use BetterHelp therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps you identify your needs and preferences and their 10 plus years of experience and industry leading match fulfillment rate means that they typically get it right the first time. But if you aren't happy with your match, guess what? You can switch to a different therapist at any time online at no extra cost. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 5 million people globally. As the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a diverse variety of Expertise. Find the one with BetterHelp. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com cover three that's BetterHelp H E L P.

[Chip Patterson]

Come to DSW for the shoes. Stay for the fun. Because let's be honest if shoe shopping isn't fun, are you even doing it right? So go ahead, try something new. Try something different, good different. Try something that feels like you. You know, the real you. And then definitely brag about it later. Because at dsw, you've got unlimited freedom to play. Find the shoes that get you you.

[Bud Elliott]

At prices that get your budget at.

[Chip Patterson]

DSW stores [e-mail] Let us surprise you back here on a suddenly divisive edition of the COVID 3 podcast. Let's take a look at the locks we've got on the board. Bud is on FSU minus six and a half, TCU plus three, Ohio State minus seven and a half, Penn State minus three and a half. Alabama, Georgia under 52 and a half and LSU plus one and a half. I've got Florida State Team total over 33 and a half. Ohio State, Washington under 52 and a half. LSU, Ole Miss first half, under 27 and a half. Oregon, Penn State under 52 and a half. Alabama, Georgia over 52 and a half. USC, Illinois first half, under 30 and a half. Danny's on T. Florida State minus six and a half. TCU plus three. USC minus six and a half. Oregon plus three and a half. Alabama, Georgia about 52 and a half. Florida State, Virginia over 59 and a half. Washington first half plus four and a half. And Tom's got Ohio State team total under 30 and a half. USC minus six and a half. Oregon plus three and a half and Alabama, Georgia over 52 and a half. All right, let's open up the card a little bit. Are there any. I've been a lot, a lot of game. A lot of totals have been talking to me. Totals talk week here in week five. Are there any 52 and a halfs or 50? I. I guess. Are we to 53 for Texas a M, Auburn?

[Bud Elliott]

Let me see here. What's the rotation number on this?

[Tom Fornelli]

There's a 53. What are you looking to do over? I can get you 52 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, let's go over 52 and a half. All three Texas A and M games have gone over so far this year. Their defense has, you know, let pretty much everybody move the football on it. You know, Utah State a little bit at the end, UTSA a little bit at the beginning, and Then Notre Dame 40 points basically all throughout the evening. The offense also has become a lot more explosive. They are one of nine offenses in the country that are currently being able to balance more than 300 passing yards and 150 rushing yards as a team. And so, you know, you've got, that, you've got planet Kyle Field. But this Auburn team, I, I really think even as Jackson Arnold took a bunch of hits in that game, I think he's looking at Texas A M's defense and he's looking at Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton. He's like, yeah, we're, we're going to be able to, we're going to be able to get out there and score some points. So I like going over the total in, in Texas A M, Auburn 52.

[Bud Elliott]

Out there, by the way. Chip.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, let's take it.

[Tom Fornelli]

You're not, you're not concerned at all about Auburn being on the road for a second straight game?

[Chip Patterson]

No. Actually, do you know what I included in my handicap of this is if the defense lets go of the rope for being on the road in their second straight game, you could end up giving up some, giving up some late scores to help us get there.

[Bud Elliott]

Only thing here is their center, Connor. Lou, he popped on the injury report and he's a pretty damn good sitter. So I'm a little worried if there's something going on there. I'm not trying to be quiet. I don't know if there is more going on there, but it, it scares.

[Tom Fornelli]

Me a little bit.

[Chip Patterson]

Horatio Fields also broke his foot in practice.

[Bud Elliott]

The number three receiver.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, Auburn's third receiver. Transferred from Wake Forest. Good player, but you know, not, not overall change in the picture, especially because you've got to dedicate so much attention to Cam Coleman. But you know, just another, another item from the injury report there.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know what, I just talked myself into it. A M minus six and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

That Auburn, Auburn, second straight road game playing in Calfield rested a M. I mean Auburn. Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

And also, I mean I feel like with getting that safety at the end of Oklahoma, Auburn last week to get the COVID I feel like sometimes God's just telling you to bet against Auburn. So I'm going to do that again too.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Danny Cannell]

You know what though? This, this pot, this podcast has had a lot of contention and I think it's just the same because I feel like God is just. And after, after Auburn just got hosed and they got 14 point swing in that game by having a bad call go against them with gifted Oklahoma touchdown, a scoop and score took seven points off the board for them. But most importantly, we've talked a lot about the aspects. Auburn's defense actually did a fantastic job against John Matiere in Oklahoma's offense. That's what I think keeps Auburn in this game. And that was a big confidence boost game for Jackson Arnold. He found Cam Coleman, got something going there. I think Eric Singleton. I think that offense and I think Jackson Arnold's legs keeps them in this game. I'll take Auburn in the six and a half ball. Don't lie.

[Chip Patterson]

Fight, fight, fight. Let's go.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, separation Saturday.

[Tom Fornelli]

But Bud goes against unity. Anything's possible at this point. We're just throwing bottles at each other.

[Bud Elliott]

When's the last time we had somebody go. Go against the unity?

[Tom Fornelli]

I think it happened last year, but let's see. Yeah, there was one trader last year and that person was. It might have been me, honestly. Yeah, it was me going over Iowa. UCLA 44 and a half. All the rest of you guys went under.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, that definitely went under because the quarterback got hurt, right?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. And what, One Unity under one. Yeah, Unity.

[Bud Elliott]

One like that.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, Tom, where. Where would you like to go?

[Tom Fornelli]

I'd like to go home. I'm gonna go. Listen. Service Academy unders. All right. We know. I love them. We know they're incredible. We know that they're endangered right now because totals are getting very, very low in those games. So sometimes you have to look for them where maybe you don't think they exist. And one such opportunity. Academy under one such opportunity exists. This week it's Rice versus Navy. Rice is an option team. Rice runs the ball the third most often of any team in the country. It's Army, Navy, Rice and then Air Force. That's right. Rice runs the ball more than Air Force does. Totals at 45 and a half. For a Service Academy game, you'd probably be getting 37 and a half, 38 and a half. Give me the under 45 and a half in rice.

[Bud Elliott]

Navy.

[Chip Patterson]

So good.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't hate that at all, man.

[Chip Patterson]

That's.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, Rice does it. Exotic things, but they take so much time to set.

[Bud Elliott]

Yes, yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

That play clock is going down to three. Every single snap.

[Chip Patterson]

Every single snap.

[Bud Elliott]

When your kid's setting up for the thing, he's going to show you. I'm like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

And then it's done like a plug. Then the play's done in about what, three seconds or something along those lines. All right, Danny, where you want to go?

[Danny Cannell]

I'll go in the acc. One of the biggest wins. Surprises of the weekend last week was with Syracuse did to Clemson. I can't even believe I'm going to say this, though. Is that win that impressive? I mean, from what we've seen from Clemson they left everything on the field. Fran Brown was phenomenal. The game plan was aggressive. The first score, the onside kick. But they also lost their quarterback, Steve Angelli. Ricky Collins comes in, a guy that. They were able to hold them off, but they weren't quite as effective. Angeli was leading the country in passing yards. I think there's going to be a little bit of a drop off there. And I look at Duke, I think Duke has been playing better. I don't think their losses are as bad as some of them look. The Illinois game, they were competitive for three quarters before it fell apart. I think they're slowly finding identity. A nice win last week against NC State. I will lay the 5 1/2 with Duke against Syracuse down a QB.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't hate that Duke looked pretty okay against. Against NC State. Q. Got pretty banged up on the D line. I'll join you. Agreement.

[Chip Patterson]

Wait, did they. Did they really get banged up? I mean, were you watching the cape? Was it the bodies that were just dropping that led to the $25,000 fine for faking injuries?

[Bud Elliott]

What. What does the what. What's the goon say in Mighty Ducks too? The two minutes well worth it.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Yeah. That's how I know that Clemson might be getting disrespected by everybody. But the ACC office still bends the knee because Cade Clubnik calls it out. Now, all of a sudden, here comes a fine. Two days later.

[Tom Fornelli]

ACC commissioner Cade Clubnik.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey, listen, he. You know, I. I know Jim Phillips is. Jim Phillips, PhD, MD is a big fan of this podcast. So, Jim, I'm not trying to run you out of town, but if you wanted to train your successor, I think Kate Klubnick would be. Would be an excellent. An excellent choice. Stand up, young man. You know, really loves the game and the college experience, so could be a great one for the future. All right, let's see. Any. Anybody gonna take a bite on. Hit a couple of. Just sort of like big ones we haven't talked about yet. Notre Dame. Arkansas.

[Tom Fornelli]

Notre Dame team total over 34 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go. Arkansas can't stop nobody.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Haven't shown an ability to do that. So.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, you're gonna lock it up.

[Bud Elliott]

Lock agreement. Yeah. That's how I want to play this as well. I don't know that I trust Arkansas to show up after what just happened to them. I think the Irish still have something to play for. So go ahead and give me the over for. For the teen total in total.

[Chip Patterson]

I like that dk.

[Danny Cannell]

I like Arkansas.

[Chip Patterson]

Are you gonna lock it up? You just did.

[Danny Cannell]

No, lock it up. I'm gonna take Arkansas and the four and a half. Their offense is really good. Notre Dame's defense has had its issues. Arkansas's defense is bad. I like the over in this game too, but I'm just going to lock up Arkansas on this one. I do think the 11am kick his bow season, right? Started both seasons. I still think they're going to be up in Fayetteville Road spot. C.J. carr has been great. Their running backs have been great. Taylor Green leads the country in total offense. I just think this is a higher scoring, kind of crazy game that comes down to a field goal potentially at the end. I don't hate Arkansas to win the game outright, so if I like that, I'll go ahead and take the four and a half while I got them.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, let's go to Starkville. Tennessee at Mississippi State. We make sure we can still get this Tennessee. Mississippi State, first quarter, over thirteen and a half. All right.

[Bud Elliott]

It's gonna take a second. So that's 165 first quarter. And you want the over?

[Chip Patterson]

Yep.

[Bud Elliott]

I've got the best I can do. There is over 13 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

All right.

[Chip Patterson]

Bang. Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, that's minus 140. That's a little much.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

They have 14, though.

[Chip Patterson]

How much about that life am I. Because I really knew I could get two touchdowns out. Here's. Here's my thinking. We'll get four possessions, right? We're going to get four possessions. Can we get two touchdowns out of four possessions? I think yes.

[Tom Fornelli]

You're going to take 14. Then what happens? You push. You can't lose.

[Chip Patterson]

Pushing ain't losing.

[Tom Fornelli]

Pushing ain't losing.

[Chip Patterson]

Do it. Yeah, sure. Why not? Let's go.

[Tom Fornelli]

You're on a heater. You went 10 and three last week. You gotta keep rolling the dice.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Let's go. Yeah. The over 14 at the. Do I need to really? Because first of all, I think that as we have discussed, Tennessee, first quarters, fast starts are back. Right. We drifted a little bit, but we are. We are 100% back and Mississippi State equally capable of being able to come out and fire and hit some. Hit some explosive plays early. So let's. Let's go ahead. I'll even take it at 14. First quarter over 14. Tennessee. Mississippi State.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. I've got. Let's see. Maybe I have three left. Yeah, like four. Three or four left, maybe. Bud. Do you want to. You want to get disgusting with it?

[Bud Elliott]

I don't Know that I have a sicko this week, guys.

[Chip Patterson]

Whoa.

[Bud Elliott]

I've got. I've got a couple. I'm considering kind of giving it into the show, but I. I have some stuff that's, let's say, like, in relation to the quality of this week. Some of these games are like, normally they would not be sicko. I don't want to play the Sicko mode music, but these are definitely not games that are gonna be on the main screen for anybody.

[Chip Patterson]

Sure. Yeah, I got you.

[Bud Elliott]

You see what I'm saying?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I have one that's kind of sick. Give me the under 46 and a half in Kentucky, South Carolina. Just a disgusting football game. Fun, fun little fact. South Carolina has scored 89 points as a team this year. 31 1/2% of those points have come on defense and special teams. 28 of their 89 total points are from their defense and their special teams. The offense has been bad and I know Lenore Sellers was hurt for part of that, but even when he's been playing, the offense has been bad. And Kentucky, I don't really think I need to go into any further detail on. So, yeah, bet it. Don't watch it.

[Chip Patterson]

UMass first quarter plus 13 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, fight. I wasn't gonna say this because a lot of books don't have the first quarter stuff up yet, but, yeah, fight for sure. All right, go. It's time for sicko mode. Let's go a little bit lower. On some of the teams in the bottom of the sun belt, if things go wrong, they could be like you, Massey. That's kind of like sicko mode of a sicko mode.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, so last year when these two were playing, I mean, the only reason why Missouri got out to a 14.0lead is because of a 63 yard reverse to Luther Burden. I mean, if they didn't have that explosive play, they were not going to be up 14 to nothing. So you're telling me that, like in this bye week, on the other side of this, you've been rolling through all these games, you're telling me that everything's going to be crispy here? No. UMass comes out and they defend a 13 and a half point lead with all of their heart. They are the minute men. And I need 15 minutes men and then I want to stop watching, but I need 15 minutes of heart.

[Bud Elliott]

Give me one second before I read this. I just need to do something here real quick.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

All right. This is from Minuteman Command.com which is a site that is covering UMass crap. The first major defensive update was about starting corner T.J. mcGee, who exited UMass's Week 3 matchup against Iowa in scary fashion. Joe Harris Simiac, who was the DC at Rutgers, he's now the UMass head coach, said he was doing better after spending an extra night in the Iowa hospital. His movement is good. He doesn't provide a timetable for the Davidson transfer. Ryan Barnes, the starting cornerback on the other side, will also be out for a period of time. According to Harris Simiac, he was absent with an injury for the first two weeks of the season but appeared against Iowa without making a tackle. The two starting safeties, Jeremiah McGill and Zaron Daniel, are both questionable this week. Daniel acquired his injury during the opening week matchup against Temple and is working on getting himself back. McGill played in all three games for the Minutemen and his injury and timetable were not revealed. Unfortunately for the secondary, this is kind of like but wait, there's more. Yeah, both backup safeties coming into the season are also on the injury report. Ball State transfer DD Snyder had surgery last week on his hand and will be out six to eight weeks, according to Harris Simiac. It was also reported that Kendall Burns Borns is questionable for Missouri. To make matters worse, Keith Sardoki, the third string safety who made a team leading five solo tackles against Iowa, is also questionable with the hamstring injury. Now, all three of UMass's deep safeties are either out or questionable as reported by Harrison. Minuteman plan to move some backup cornerbacks over to the safety spot to fill the hole. As of the Monday press conference, UMass had six of the eight defensive backs listed on the Week 1 depth chart either out or questionable and seven overall players in the secondary. On the injury report, it was revealed that UMass built this football facility on an Indian burial ground and is cursed. Look for Zach Ferris and Malcolm Green to move over to the safety position. Yeah, I did actually have that. Yeah, Brett Bailey, Raheem Sex Seal and JC Clark to fill in at cornerback. Stay tuned for more injury updates if there's more injury updates, they should just cancel the game. So I hope we should not stay tuned for this like Jesus.

[Tom Fornelli]

Two things. This is a great opportunity because DraftKings has it at 10 and a half so but I can get you Mizzou minus 10 and a half and chip plus 13. Let's middle the hell out of this thing so everybody wins. But also that injury report. When we talk about body types, that's what we mean because UMass's body types going up Against Iowa's body types or even Temple's body types. This is the kind of thing that happens after those contacts.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, well, I believe somebody at tailgate called it syringe warfare when you've got a sicko fight.

[Bud Elliott]

They said that? The UMass report.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah. Hey, you know what? UMass did mix. I mean, not UMass. Missouri did miss an extra point last week.

[Tom Fornelli]

Don't remind me.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, could be.

[Chip Patterson]

Could be significant. All right, what do we. What do we have left?

[Tom Fornelli]

I've got two. I don't know about you guys.

[Chip Patterson]

I've got.

[Bud Elliott]

I got some totals. Tom, go ahead.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'm gonna take Utah State plus 22 and a half. I'm fading. The dentist, as I mentioned, he's one in four on the season. I have the best record on the show, so maybe you should believe me over that guy. But this is just a situation for me. I agree with him. Like, Vandy's very good and Vandy has looked very good. It's just. They've got Alabama next week. Would any of us be shocked if they kind of just you know, go a little bit vanilla here against Utah State, who I think has been undervalued the entire season long, so getting more than three touchdowns. Give me the Aggies plus 22 and.

[Chip Patterson]

A half.

[Bud Elliott]

It is.

[Chip Patterson]

Bronco and Broncos kicked in some back doors when we had to pick it yesterday. I took Vandy first half just because of that, but I'm no lock here on Thursday.

[Bud Elliott]

All right, totals. We already hit. We already hit the Notre Dame team total, Louisville under 58. I think both backs are dinged up. Eli Holstein is the second worst PFF grade among all Power 5 quarterbacks. And it's by a lot. He's played. He's just been terrible. So I don't think he's going to get out of that. Out of that funk. Cincinnati over 56 and a half, so you got to do some digging here. But if you look at it, Kansas has done a pretty good job against the style of defense that Iowa State runs. Okay, Iowa State obviously lost one of their top, top lieutenants to become Cincinnati's D coordinator last year. Also, Kansas had the ball run down their throat by Missouri, which runs a very similar run scheme to what Cincinnati runs. So I think both sides will be able to score some points here. Calor 52, two bad defenses, two quarterbacks who I think have real ability despite them Getting shut out 34 to nothing last week against San Diego State.

[Chip Patterson]

You got to mention the other.

[Bud Elliott]

The other team, Boston College And West Virginia, under 48, over under. On starting quarterbacks who play in this game, 0.5.

[Chip Patterson]

And. And for those not keeping track at home, West Virginia is playing host to Utah.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, playing host of Utah. That's really bad podcasting by me. I apologize.

[Tom Fornelli]

What'd you get for the number 48 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

48.

[Tom Fornelli]

48. Okay, good.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, there's 48 and a half. I'll take.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, there's not. I was just me.

[Chip Patterson]

I thought.

[Tom Fornelli]

Okay.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, bud, you might as well have just read rotation numbers. 363 over 57. Like. Okay, let's. Let's go out on this one. BYU, third quarter. Do I need to do a 0.5 or do I need to lay the 1.5?

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know. Like, I. You think we have these numbers ready for you just off the top of our head here, Let me. Let me look it up. Hold on.

[Bud Elliott]

Third quarter.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, he's taking a third quarter.

[Chip Patterson]

Byu, third quarter.

[Bud Elliott]

At least I know that. That's the bottom. You got to lay a half point chip. And it's. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

So byu, if there's a little bit of maybe a hangover, then might. I could understand that. They were in Greenville last week. They're in Boulder this week. You know, Dion, Coach Deion Sanders, Coach prime has found his quarterback. He did the whole like, oh, you want somebody else now? Watch him stink. Okay, now let's go back to Kaden Salter. But if there's. If I have to decide which of these two coaching staffs I think is going to do a better job of making halftime adjustments, it's going to be on the BYU side of things with Kalani Sataki and his group. And then I decided to do some digging because against FBS competition this year, small sample size, admittedly, BYU is averaging 8.5 points per game in the third quarter while allowing just 1.5 points per game in the 3rd quarter quarter. BYU has not allowed a 3rd quarter touchdown all season long. So if it is a little bit of a sleepy start, it ain't going to be a sleepy third quarter. I like byu, regardless of the situation, to outscore Colorado in the third quarter. Let's go, Cougars. Byu, third quarter minus a half a point.

[Tom Fornelli]

I've got one more. We're going back to the. Well, maybe people will finally start to believe Rutgers. Minnesota over 50 and a half. Rutgers doesn't need tackles, they just score points.

[Danny Cannell]

I got one more.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Danny Cannell]

Somebody asked about Indiana, Iowa. I really want to lay them with Indiana, but I'm Just like, why is this number not bigger? But you know what? I am going to tackle the total. I'm going to go over 47 and a half and I think Indiana could do it by themselves. And from what we've seen, if I was offense, I know they had a little bit of a breakout against Rutgers, but I think. I think Indiana is going to roll here and I like the points.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, any. Any. Anything else here. All right, let's review our week five locks but has Florida State minus six and a half TCU plus three Ohio State minus seven and a half Penn State minus three and a half Alabama, Georgia under 52 and a half LSU plus one and a half Duke minus five and a half Notre Dame team total over 34 and a half Missouri first quarter minus ten and a half Louisville Pit under 58 Cincinnati, Kansas over 56 and a half Cal, Boston College over 52 Utah, West Virginia under 48 I'm on Florida State team total over 33 and a half Ohio State, Washington under 52 and a half LSU, Ole Miss first half under 27 and a half Oregon, Penn State under 52 and a half Alabama, Georgia over 52 and a half USC, Illinois first half under 30 and a half Auburn, Texas A&M over 52 the Tennessee, Mississippi State first quarter over 14 UMass first quarter plus 13 and a half BYU third quarter minus a half a point Danny's got Florida State minus six and a half TCU plus three USC minus six and a half Oregon plus three and a half Alabama, Georgia over fifty two and a half Auburn plus six and a half Duke minus five and A half Florida State, Virginia over fifty nine and a half Washington first half plus four and a half Arkansas plus four and a half Indiana, Iowa over forty seven and a half and Tom's locked on Ohio State team total under thirty and a half Rice, Navy under forty five and a half USC - six and a half Oregon plus three and a half Alabama, Georgia over fifty two and a half Texas A&M - six and a half Kentucky, South Carolina under forty six and a half Notre Dame team total over thirty four and a half Utah State plus twenty two and a half and Rutgers, Minnesota over fifty five and a half. That was the locks. The locks sponsored by Cash App. As you heard me say at the top of the show, new Cash App users can use our code and get free money. Use our code cover 3. Send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 right in your account. Thank you to Cash App and Coming up on the other side, our Moneyline sprinkles for week five and more next. Your fantasy season doesn't end after your draft.

[Danny Cannell]

The Fantasy Football Today podcast is going.

[Chip Patterson]

To get you through the season and to a championship.

[Danny Cannell]

Fantasy Football Today, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network, has episodes every single day. Waiver wire, trade talk, starter sit, mailbags, and more.

[Chip Patterson]

If you want to win your league.

[Danny Cannell]

You need to listen to Fantasy Football Today. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and anywhere podcasts are found.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'm Christian McCaffrey, pro running back, and Abercrombie is an official fashion partner of the NFL. I'm not kidding when I say NFL by Abercrombie broke the Internet last year and I think this season's lineup is even cooler.

[Chris]

And so does my wife, who keeps.

[Tom Fornelli]

Stealing all my hoodies. Stay fit for the season. And Abercrombie's newest arrivals shop NFL by.

[Bud Elliott]

Abercrombie in the app, online and in.

[Chris]

Store.

[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. And this Moneyline Sprinkles segment is brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game loud, cash register. Let's make some money. All right, last week on the Sprankles, Bud bringing it home a little. Tulsa plus 350. Maryland plus 300. Memphis plus 250. Nothing. Geez. Oh, and four for chip. No, no sprinkles coming home. Danny gets Syracuse plus 580 to the window. That was that. That inspired the Jenny Dell cut him off in the Sky Club. You were, you, you were, you were on it. You know, you fired from the Sky Club and you saw it coming and there was never a doubt. As a Syracuse goes wire to wire. Tom Owen, 3 no sprinkles there for the season long total. Bud has now jumped out. He's up 10 units on the sprinkles. Five and six records. Danny at four and 10, up 2.85 units. Tom three and seven minus 1.7. Chip at four and 13, minus 5.55. All right, bud.

[Tom Fornelli]

Honestly, if I'm Bud, I'm sitting on it. Nobody's getting up to 10.

[Bud Elliott]

I would just, I wouldn't bet another.

[Tom Fornelli]

Sprinkle the rest of the year.

[Bud Elliott]

I would dare us to chase you down. If I sit on this. I mean, I get to leave at noon every Thursday. All right, Here we go. 127. Give me Cal + 205 to go. Beat Boston College. I just don't see a big difference between these teams. I mean, neither plays a lick of defense. High variance quarterbacks distribute the Ball pretty well. All right. 161Arizona +205. Arizona's quarterback's been playing extremely well this year. I don't think there's a huge difference in these teams if you really dig into what Iowa State's done so far. They played a Kansas State team that you know is the most disappointing team in the country in terms of like where they were, preseason win total and what they're projected now. I mean, Kansas State's project to go 4 and 8 by FanDuel.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

And they're updated. Win total stuff that's pretty bad. All right. And finally 193 Washington State. I just don't think it should be plus 185 at Colorado State.

[Chip Patterson]

You want to talk about an angry fan base that maybe we don't spend as much time. Colorado State fans are furious with the state of their football program right now. Horrendous vibes.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Like that. Like that's not going to be at the top of anyone's hot seat situation. And it always comes back at a place like that where who's the athletic director, what's their relationship, the university, all those things. But the fans, the Colorado State football fans are furious with the lack of competitiveness of the Rams right now.

[Bud Elliott]

Did anybody think about Colorado, by the way? I'm not pulling the trigger on him.

[Chip Patterson]

Just, I mean, obviously they're not going to use nobody.

[Bud Elliott]

It's their first road game. They have a freshman quarterback like a.

[Tom Fornelli]

Not interested.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Not interested. I almost okay last week.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, people think I'm the Colorado hater, but like he looked a lot better last week.

[Chip Patterson]

I almost took BYU fourth quarter too. Who do you trust more? All right, let's see. Danny, where you. Where are we sprinkling? All right.

[Danny Cannell]

I'm gonna go to mentor versus mentee. Good friends buddies. Jeff Lebby versus Josh Hyple in Starkville. He's already got one big win at home against Arizona State. Make it two. Knocking off the Vols plus 260. They win the game outright. There's another team on here that has won 22 straight games at home. Make it 23 for the Washington Huskies to pull off an early up upset of the season. I think this season's going to be wild. I think we're just getting started with the amount of teams, the upsets we're going to see. It starts off here, Julian saying first road game does struggle and Demond Williams has a big game for Washington. Finally another trend I'm just going to follow along with Kirby Smart is one in six against Alabama. Make it one in seven. Give me the Tide and Ty Simpson to get it done in Athens. On the road plus 135.

[Chip Patterson]

Tom.

[Tom Fornelli]

I have. Let me see here. I've got four. I'll start with the Friday. I think this is Friday night. Give me TCU plus 135. Okay, I, I like the Horned Frogs. I mean I, I know you guys are on the plus three. You guys have locked agreement there. I'm very much in line with that thinking. Give me UCF + 190 on the road against a Kansas State team that is very much in danger of being dead. Give me Hawaii plus 210 on the mainland. I know it's a long trip to the, to the mountains from Hawaii, but they're playing Air Force. I don't trust Air Force to be that big of a favorite against anybody this year. Sorry about their JV team, Chip. I'm just not fully on board. And then I mentioned this. I took the under in it earlier. I think this could be a very ugly game. I think it could be very close in the fourth quarter and I think a team that has turned the ball over a lot to this point already this year could turn the ball over one or two times too many and cause themselves to be upset at home. Give me Kentucky plus 190.

[Bud Elliott]

If that happens. That's if that happens with Beamer leave for Virginia Tech.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know.

[Bud Elliott]

Or do you run it back with Sellers?

[Chip Patterson]

I'm with you, Danny. Headed is 250. If we can get 260. I'll take Mississippi State. I like that one. Auburn is it 205 that I had in my notes. But you know there's a, there's at least this. That is a closer game than number nine team in the country. You know, playing at home things could get a little wild. I like your ball. Don't lie. Call ducks + 145 or you know, whatever the appropriate number is right there and then I, I don't want. I felt a little complicated about this because I didn't want to make. I don't like trying to profit off of like emotional stuff, but I do think that there is at least like I am wishing for just good vibes here. App State's going to play Boise State this weekend and I'll. It's worth a sprinkle. Like I wasn't going to come out here and lock it up and tell you that they're going to cover 16 and a half but it's been a tough, tough, you know, emotional week. I'm, I'm hoping for a cathartic, a good performance in a cathartic weekend for, for a Mountaineers roster that, I mean, a lot of players on that team were recruited by and signed with Sean Clark. So after the news of his, his passing, I'll throw a little app state. Good vibes. Plus 550 out there.

[Bud Elliott]

Also, AJ Swan practice today for them.

[Chip Patterson]

There you go. And also, who's going to trust Boise State one time? Come on, let's go. All right. And that was the Moneyline sprinkle segment brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game, huh? Nice crispy 90 minute locks. Guess what? We're not done yet. Okay. Because you may remember that we asked you to participate in our Fantasy Football Today draftathon auction and that was the opportunity to give your locks for the week on the Locks pod. Our thanks to Chris, who was able to win that auction again. All proceeds going to the St. Jude's Children's Hospital. And now we will bring you our conversation with Chris and his locks for week five back here on the COVID 3 podcast. And this is a very exciting time of the year because you may remember, before the season started, we participated in the Fantasy Football Today Draft a thon we all have items up for auction. Many of you contributed, but not all of you won. No. There could only be one winner. For the Fantasy Football Today Draft a thon auction, we're auctioning off the opportunity to participate in an episode of the COVID three Locks. Now, fine looking gentleman that you see right there is Chris. Chris, first of all, you know, all the proceeds from this go to benefit the St. Jude Children's Hospital. So this was all for a very good cause. So on, on behalf of them and the Fantasy Football Today crew, we wanted to say thank you for that. And, and also it's just, it's, it's cool to see the passion for that you're showing to support us along the way as well. So, Chris, thank you for, for participating and congratulations on, on winning this auction.

[Chris]

Yeah, no, I appreciate that, Chip, man. I, I was trying to do this for like the last three or four years and it was always, you know, when you guys were doing the, the locks, early July, August, it just didn't work out schedule wise, you know, family vacations and that kind of stuff. So when I saw the opportunity to pick your week, man, this week five looked good and I said I got to get in on this auction. So I'm happy to do it now. You're welcome. And I'm happy to be able to support this man. I've been following you guys for a long time.

[Chip Patterson]

So before we jump into the, your, the pick, you've selected some games, you've got some locks like this is, this is Chris's time to, to let the chopper spray, as we like to say. I, I see that, I see that we are, I see that very nice looking little Penn State get up right there. Can. Is it safe to assume we are. We've, we've got our eyes set on Happy Valley and the, the game this weekend.

[Chris]

Not only do we have our eyes set, we will be in attendance. So we will be heading that way Saturday morning. Let's go. Looking forward to some tailgating and you know, not getting too, too intense that you can't make the game. That happens sometimes with, with Penn State tailgates. But no, looking forward to it. And yeah, we have obviously got some, some locks, some picks, some things, some thoughts there. Absolutely.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, what do you want to do? Do you want to just dive right in? Just let, let Chris start.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I mean, do we need to call the dentist or.

[Chris]

I do want to hear from the dentist because this I, I would love to hear what the dentist has to say about maybe the situation that transpired on Twitter.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I do expect that to be addressed this week for sure.

[Chip Patterson]

When he said take the over, he's talking about their relationship, right?

[Chris]

No, I mean he's talking about he's.

[Bud Elliott]

Going to target weeks, you know, just, just go at him.

[Chip Patterson]

Chris, what is your fit? What is one of your favorite picks, one of your favorite locks? Like if we were throwing it up and there was no tea at all and it was just like who's got a lock? What would you want to jump in and make sure that you grab right away?

[Chris]

So I, I think after watching that Iowa Rutgers game last week, that Friday night special, I think that Indiana -7 and a half. Going to Kinnick after seeing what they did. Sorry, Tom. To Illinois. And I think that is probably if there was something on the board that I'm going to go grab early. I know it's seven and a half. Is it going to come down to seven? Probably, probably not. Just looking the way that the tickets are going, but that's probably something. Just immediately looking at the board that popped out to me is, hey, this, this team looks like they are playing everything as of last year, if not better. And a lot of composites and a lot of the, the statistical stuff too. Just efficiencies and power ranking wise. So that was something I jumped on right away.

[Tom Fornelli]

The only thing I feel like Iowa has going in this matchup is that we didn't spend the entire off season calling Iowa the next Indiana. So I don't know if there's going to be like the Michael Jordan. I took it personally, kind of feeling that Signetti clearly had last week against Illinois. I, I do like the pick. I, I think that, you know, you mentioned that this is an Indiana team that I think we just kind of have to realize the schedule's tougher this year, but I think it's a better team than the one we saw last year too, just from back, front to back. So it's, it's a tough spot.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I definitely wouldn't take Iowa here. I, I think four was a bad opener. You know, I don't know if it's going to get to 10. I, I did think about over what.

[Chip Patterson]

Hell yeah. Iowa overs.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I, Iowa overs this year for sure. Right. Like, their, their offensive line is pretty good, but like, I think Iowa's defense is just. They, they don't look like they have game breakers anymore on defense.

[Tom Fornelli]

Their corners aren't as good this year.

[Chip Patterson]

No.

[Bud Elliott]

Indiana will score.

[Chip Patterson]

And, and like the, I mean, the, the defensive line doesn't have. Remember they used to always be like the third stringer from two years ago is going to be an NFL draft pick this year. It was just kind of churning through on that side and Parker this and Phil Parker that. Yeah. All right. I like, I like that. With Indiana, I do think, I think they will go pedal to the metal. That's, that's Chris's number one best look. All right, what else you got?

[Chris]

All right, let's move Friday. So, looking at the TCU Arizona State game, I'm gonna sit on this and wait to hopefully have this come back to three. Looking at this, I think tcu, at least from what I was looking at on pff, it seems like Sam Levitt's just killing teams on play action. And in order for play action to be actually successful, what do you have to do is be able to run the ball. And TCU's defense actually looks like, at least statistically, that they're, they're holding up against the run pretty well. Especially the safeties have improved quite a bit this year. And I think just in that spot, what you're coming off of. The only thing that gives me some concern is obviously with tcu. What are you doing in the fourth quarter last week? I don't know if you've guys heard any injury updates or anything. I mean, I. I kind of went through Twitter last night, didn't see anything, so I guess that's okay.

[Bud Elliott]

I read that it was a cramp, I think. But yeah, it looked like more than a crap. Like it's a contact induced cramp.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chris]

I mean I was watching the broadcast and right after they said he interviewed with the, you know, sidelines reporter and that's what he said is it was a full body cramp. I'm good. That's what that was.

[Chip Patterson]

Are you concerned at all that TCU has played one FCS team and two group of five teams parading in the Atlantic Coast Conference as power conference teams?

[Chris]

North Carolina? No, I'm not. I think just looking at where this team is, I think getting the points, you know, it's going to be kind of one of those Big 12 games. Right. It could be a coin flip either way.

[Chip Patterson]

Sure.

[Chris]

And I think taking that field goal, I know we're looking at it on the road on a short week with some travel, but they were home last week and, and not that even if, you know, smu, not that that's far or anything as far as the iron skillet goes, but I just think that they're in a spot here to take advantage of the opportunity. Arizona State. The other thing that I was looking at on here, which is just a wild stat as far as target share, Tyson has 42% of the target share, which is just wild. So, you know, as a Penn State fan, I speak to that of the Tyler Warren effect from last year, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Chris]

You're concentrated that much on. On one particular target. Offensively, I think if you can at least limit, not necessarily take away, but limit some of the plays there, you're putting yourself in a good opportunity.

[Bud Elliott]

Makes sense. They have got to find other people to throw the ball to.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, what's it. I mean it's nothing. It is just Jordan Tyson or bust.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yep. I, I like, I like that right there. Anything else on Friday night are you gonna take a bite out of? Let's see what else is on our Friday night slate. We got two good games.

[Tom Fornelli]

Florida State, Virginia.

[Chip Patterson]

There we go. Taking a bite out of the Knowles.

[Chris]

We're gonna take a bite out of the Knolls.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Chris]

I guess not necessarily the totals or anything here. I'm looking at the team over.

[Chip Patterson]

Florida State, team total over.

[Chris]

Team total over for the Knowles. It just seems like Virginia is perceptible to giving up these Explosive plays. They've been doing it pretty consistently on a week to week basis. I think Florida State's run game is going to be effective against them. Open up some of those easy passing games if not some play action that can be explosive on that side too. And I just think they're in a position they, you know, had that struggle last year and felt like what that is. And I think being able to reset the, the clock here with Norvell, maybe Bud knows better as far as that pressure goes, but it just seems like they are a team that has figured it out. They know what they want to run, they have an identity and. And I think that spells trouble for Virginia on Friday.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. I think there's also some chance that Virginia is both improved and also kind of bs Right. Like if you think about this, Coastal is one of the very worst teams in all of FPS. It might be turning around now, but like they were a total disaster the first three weeks of the season. Stanford is garbage. And we bet uva last year last week, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

NC State's defense is. It's just not a thing this year. I mean ECU's offense is not very good. They moved it on him pretty consistently and it. I, I just, I don't know. Like there is a step up in competition here that uva has not faced yet. But I think they're, they're definitely better than they were last year.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. UVA's defense basically neutral or negative against NC State and Stanford. Their best performances were against William and Marion. Coastal.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Knock on, bite on, on anything.

[Bud Elliott]

Anything Right after they lost their qb, remember.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, well, listen, listen, listen, listen.

[Bud Elliott]

Not that he's great, but.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, let's look at the whole quarterback room, you know.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, that's right.

[Chip Patterson]

You're. You're going from one fast food chain to another fast food chain. It's still the same exit you're still getting. Taking what you can get. Exactly. All right. What. All right. Chris, Any. Anything on. All right, let's move to Saturday. Saturday noon slate. What are you gonna grab?

[Chris]

So Saturday noon looking at just a team same almost. I feel similar in a sense here for, for kind of what I echoed with Florida State but with Georgia Tech. So Georgia Tech week. I'm gonna grab that 14 and 14 before it gets to 14 and a half or more as that starts to run out. I watched that wake game a few weeks or if it was last week where it was just. They had scores that should never have happened and just flukes are repeatable things. No, absolutely. Not, you know, kickoff returns for touchdowns, easy scores, explosive plays, kind of these one and done deals. Drives that are, you know, kind of outliers. And Georgia Tech just looks methodical. Yeah, well, they're going to be able to just kind of bleed this game away and it wakes opportunities and that just seems like maybe it's close till halftime. You know, maybe a field goal, maybe it's seven. But I just, I think they're going to wear and tear on them. And Georgia Tech starts to extend that lead second half and I think that's a, that's an easy cover.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I probably wouldn't bet wake. I'm a little bit like do you trust.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't know by the back door? By tip of whether you had the back door. Right. That helped you.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, right. I just. I like Tech to win by margin because they play so slow. You know, I, I'm. To me they're almost more like giant killers. But I mean obviously they didn't cover last week so maybe they want to have a little more killer instinct this week.

[Chris]

We're sticking with here, so let's just go. We'll go to pain, Tom. Right in your backyard.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh man.

[Chris]

And just because of the injuries. You guys hit this yesterday, right? Injuries and explosive plays of availability on wide receivers. It's just more of a principal play. Right. This is not necessarily a vibes play, Chip, but it's just a principal play. I think the number is a little too low. So. Six. Same thing. Well, we're six and a half. I'm going to grab that before we get to Seth of recovery on that secondary to be able to. To limit what USC is able to do.

[Tom Fornelli]

All right, Chris, well, it was nice having you on. Thanks for your donation. And you gotta go now. Yeah, no, I don't. I don't hate that play at all right now.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I got, I got we. It the. The on paper stuff. I mean because the vibes play is you're getting Lincoln outside of the pacific time zone. So you know what, what happens when they've gotta, you know, pack the extra supplies or to go to the Oregon Trail? Like are they gonna. Is they're doing reverse Oregon Trail? Like are they gonna get snake bit? We'll see. But I cannot argue with the very obvious. USC's wide receivers good. Illinois secondary banged up. I think that might go well for the Trojans. So I, I can understand that. Yeah. So you wanna, you do you want to take a piece of LSU Ole Miss?

[Chris]

Yeah, I think. Let's get into that here this three o', clock, 3:30 slate. So looking at this and with what we talked about kind of on the intro here with, you know, Lane Kiffin, what transpired this week. And listen, I've got a daughter too, and if that happened, there is absolutely no way I'm losing this game. Absolutely not. So we're gonna take Ole Miss basically at this pick them minus one, plus one, don't care. We're gonna take Ole Miss because it's just on a. More of a, A fatherly principle. I just don't see this.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, no, no, Chris. Chris came out here and said, as the father of a daughter, I will not stand for this.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's awesome, man.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I like that. There of course, a game in Oxford too. And, and who says LSU's trustworthy, right? I mean, what have we seen from the Tigers where you're like, yeah, that's, that's definitely one of the best teams in the country. Every bit of data continues to at least call that into question. Don't hate that at all. What else? Anything else in the 330 slate you get, you're gonna jump on the anything for Ohio State, Wisconsin, the big time game of the week.

[Tom Fornelli]

Washington.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, Washington.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Chris]

Washington.

[Tom Fornelli]

Washington.

[Chris]

You're good. Of course, right? Had to be company, man. I, I know looking at this, they talked about, oh, this is Julian Saying's first road test and it's not Husky Stadium is not an easy place to play. And this may be. I was trying to figure out the last because I don't know, you know, if pff wise do they consider arch dual threat. I mean I know it's his first game in Columbus and everything, but I was trying to think the last time that Ohio State's defense, or especially I know even Knowles that we've got now, but before him, when's the last time that they dealt with a mobile quarterback or a true kind of dual threat kind of guy. And I, I don't think that's going to make too much of a difference. I just think Ohio State's got the horses. It may be a tight game. I think, Chip, you made the point yesterday about this may be something you check in on the third quarter and you go, oh, that's a. That score line's a little tighter than I was thinking. But it's just they're going to out talent them here eventually. If it's third quarter, fourth quarter, maybe they backdoor cover. But under that 10, 10 points, you know, under the 10 to 8 and a half 8. I'm not sure. If the line moved at all this morning. But I'm going to lay them with Ohio State.

[Tom Fornelli]

Get you seven and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, Tom.

[Chris]

Even better.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we got to keep. We got to keep bookkeeping on that.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'm keeping track. I'm keeping track.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, good. You know, welcome. Welcome to the Lock Stock.

[Bud Elliott]

Chris Saying has been, like, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country. Like, kind of sneakily, but, like, the ball's on target a lot. I wanted to like Washington a lot this year. I just feel like they have not. They've not gotten the health breaks they need to get, you know, and like, you, for that team to be where I wanted them to go, I think you need to have some guys healthy.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, is it. Is it time for us to go to Happy Valley? Do we need to. Do we need. Need to hear Chris's locks for the number one game of the week, Penn State host in Oregon is Penn State. Hey, is Penn State playing with its food, or is it just been waiting? Is this a sleeping giant? It's gonna come out and roar. Tell me, Chris. Tell me, Chris, what's the best bet? What's a lock for Penn State in Oregon?

[Chris]

So the. The more I looked at this game and when the lines came out, you're looking at this, and I think the general public's looking at this and saying, I can get Oregon with these points just because of James Franklin in these big spots. And what I'll tell you is I went. I took my kids and my wife to the Villanova game last week, and about midway through the second quarter, my daughter said, hey, Daddy, why is this game so boring? And I said, that's exactly right.

[Chip Patterson]

Right.

[Chris]

This is so boring. Because I do think there has been some, I'll say, masking of the offense. I do not think it's something that you can just flip a switch and turn on. I don't. However, I think that we have not seen anything that they ran last year, like the Tyler Warner Warren package. We haven't seen anything like that. I think Pena is in a spot to be that guy. They kind of ran some stuff with him last week. They ran a couple reverses, a couple handoffs, a couple sweeps. Some things that kind of perked my eyes up or my eyebrows up, saying.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey.

[Chris]

You know, this is. This is a little different. This looks different than the first two weeks. And then I think the other thing, looking at some of this stuff.

[Tom Fornelli]

They.

[Chris]

Defensively, people think that. I think the offense has been more vanilla. Personally, I think the Defense has been. And the defense has been so dominant, but I think Jim Knowles look at. Not necessarily you can just use the Rose bowl as an example, but him having the ability to be able to deal with this offense and see it and dealt with it last year a few times, he's going to have some things dialed up here, you know, ready to go. And then I think if you can get them under pressure, last few years, but back to 23, I think if you can heat them up and get some pressure, you. You've got some opportunities there, you know, to potentially create some explosive plays defensively, create some turnovers. And of course, I got to give a shout out to my. My local guy, you know, Chaz Coleman. You guys can use this. They call him the Tasmanian Devil. That's. That's his nickname there at Penn State. So you're welcome to use that. But I want to give the local guy some love. I. He just seems like he is already figured it out as a, you know, as a true freshman ready to go here. So I'm looking to. For that defense, not Dennis Sutton, Tony Rojas. The secondaries looking good. And I think that's just going to put Oregon in one of these situations where can you deal with this with all of the pressure, the atmosphere. And then I did see. And this is something I wanted to ask you guys. There was a. Some conversation online that the. Their number one receiver. Number one, actually. What's his name? Got took a knock this week in practice. Yeah, took a knock in practice.

[Chip Patterson]

They said the same thing last week. And he still went out there and played four catches, 68 yards and a touchdown.

[Bud Elliott]

I. I think he's okay, but I. I don't know that, but I just. Yeah, we talked about this yesterday and got up here. I. I think he's all right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Sorry.

[Chris]

Okay, so what I'm taking my lock on. This is actually. Penn State's gonna score team total over.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay.

[Chip Patterson]

Was it 28 and a half. Right. Or something like that?

[Chris]

So why. It's a lock there. There's been.

[Chip Patterson]

And.

[Chris]

Should be. It should be last night. At least when I checked it was. It was 27 and a half. It may have moved.

[Bud Elliott]

There we go.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yep.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep.

[Chris]

Okay. So it's funny that it's that number. There's been some screenshots of this going around some Penn State social media. So you guys may or may not have seen this, but I know Penn State fans probably have this week. So this is going back to 2016 when we beat Ohio State in the White Out. And basically every win that we've had in the whiteout since then, they're including the SMU playoff game last year. There's a magic number for Pentagon State. And since it's playoff baseball time and we're going to be talking about magic numbers here, I'm going to tell you Penn State's magic number.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's.

[Chris]

It's 28. Every one of those games that they have won, they've scored at least 28 points.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

28 points. They lose. That's science.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I mean, I don't want to.

[Chris]

Talk about that tomorrow.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, I'm just saying it's. It's like a principle at this point. It's the 28 point principle. If Penn State scores 28, they win.

[Chip Patterson]

That's. That's like the Iowa 40 point, right?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, but I think this one's more attainable.

[Chip Patterson]

More attainable? Yeah. 100. All right, we got a little Penn State team total over something that we know Chris is going to want to check out in person. Any. Any Alabama, Georgia thoughts or locks that you want to get on the record before? No, nothing. All right, one last one. Anything on the board that you want to get last. Chris's final word before.

[Bud Elliott]

Do we have a sprinkle?

[Chris]

Oh, we. Yeah, we could do like. We could jump in with a couple sprinkles. We can, but. Or I guess. Do we want to do. I guess it was sicko mode and a sprinkle.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

All right. How much time we got?

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Bud Elliott]

All right, it's time for sicko mode.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm a little bit lower on some of the teams in the bottom of the sun belt. If things go wrong, they could be like UMassu combat. That's kind of like Sicko mode of a sicko mod.

[Chris]

All right, so sicko mode and this. This is gross. It's gonna be Marshall, Louisiana, Lafayette. Yeah, I'm taking Marshall. Plus the one and a half. I look for these outliers from week to week. And when I looked at one of the things with Louisiana, the raging Cajuns here, the. Their quarterbacks. Quarterback rating under pressure, I thought this was a. Like a typo, but his quarterback or his quarterback rating under pressure was a five. Like, that can't be right.

[Bud Elliott]

That's.

[Chip Patterson]

So.

[Chris]

Looking at that, just thinking to myself, I don't know that I've ever seen that before, and this is basically an even game. More so they. So Vegas thinks so just on that principle alone, I thought, like, we're gonna roll the dice with this. And we're gonna take, we're gonna take Marshall.

[Chip Patterson]

What a disgusting, disgusting contribution to the conversation. I'm so, so thankful that you did it, Chris. I am. I am, you know, the show. You get this. Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

Also, I think all four of Louisiana's office of tackles are out.

[Chip Patterson]

Whoa.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Emery Hunt. They only have four recruited to play offensive tackle. Yeah. Oh, man. All right.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, they might have. They might have more than four on scholarship. I guarantee they don't have more than four. They like.

[Tom Fornelli]

They might not have more than four.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, man. All right, Chris, again, most importantly, thank you so much for participating and thank you so much for, you know, jumping in on the auction. You won the auction and it, it was, it went for a good cause. I, I love this opportunity to get to talk to you and to be able to put faces and voices to people in the COVID 3 tailgate. And you are very clearly, very clearly as disgusting as all of us are. As we're finding the fives with the, the rating under pressure, just, it's just bangers of a stat pole right there. So, Chris, thank you so much again. Best of luck to your Nittany Lions and enjoy Happy Valley on Saturday.

[Danny Cannell]

ABC Wednesday.

[Bud Elliott]

Shifting Gears is back.

[Chip Patterson]

He has arisen.

[Bud Elliott]

Tim Allen and Kat Dennings return in television's number one new comedy.

[Chip Patterson]

What What?

[Bud Elliott]

With a star studded premiere including Jenna Elfman, Nancy Travis and.

[Chris]

Hey, buddy.

[Bud Elliott]

A big home improvement reunion.

[Danny Cannell]

Welcome.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, boy. That guy's a tool.

[Bud Elliott]

Shifting Gears season premiere Wednesday, 8, 7 Central on ABC and stream on Hulu.