Week 6 LOCKS: Best Bets, Picks ATS For FSU-Miami, Alabama-Vanderbilt, more! | Cover 3 Podcast

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast – Week 6 LOCKS: Best Bets, Picks ATS For FSU-Miami, Alabama-Vanderbilt & More!

Date: October 2, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson (A), Tom Fornelli (D), Danny Kanell (C), Bud Elliott (B)

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Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 College Football podcast features Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, and Bud Elliott locking in their picks and best bets for Week 6 of the college football season. The crew analyzes and debates top games including Florida State vs. Miami, Alabama vs. Vanderbilt, and many more, offering against-the-spread picks, totals, and moneyline sprinkles. Listeners get in-depth betting insight, analysis of prior results, notable stats, and classic banter as the team aims to lock up another winning week.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap: Week 5 Results (03:00–09:44)

• Records:

  • Bud: 5–6 (season: 26–28)
  • Chip: 6–4 (season: 32–25)
  • Danny: 5–5 (season: 25–26)
  • Tom: 6–4 (season: 27–18; current season leader)

• Key Takeaways:

  • Bud reflects on tough losses, citing bad luck and injuries (e.g., LSU's right tackle injury).

    “LSU was pretty clearly wrong side. Didn’t know the right tackle was gonna hurt himself in warm-ups and not play...Ole Miss was the correct side in that game…Utah poured it on West Virginia, very wrong there.” – Bud (04:16)

  • Chip discusses frustrating beats due to overtime and late scores:

    “Oregon-Penn State under 52.5 goes overtime at 17–17. Them’s the breaks.” – Chip (06:13)

  • Danny admits overreaching with Arkansas and Indiana-Iowa over bets; Alabama-Georgia over looked good early but fizzled in second half.
  • Tom is content with performance, highlighting South Carolina’s improved offense and disappointment in the Alabama-Georgia over collapse:

    “Everybody just decided to stop scoring points in second half. So, what are you going to do?” – Tom (08:58)

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2. Early “Live” Bet: Florida State–Miami Over (07:22–08:10)

• Bud jumps in with urgency as lines are “getting hammered,” locking in Florida State-Miami over 53.5 before it potentially disappears:

  “If you’re watching this live, get on that. That’s not coming back.” – Bud (07:42)

• The rest of the crew quickly follows; the rare break from show decorum for an early lock.

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3. Weeknight & Friday Games – Picks & Discussion (12:24–17:12)

Thursday: Sam Houston at New Mexico State (12:29)

• Danny: Sam Houston -1.5, based mostly on motivation after last week’s embarrassment.

  “He is highly motivated. Now give me Sam Houston. Lay the 1.5.” – Danny (13:01)

• Tom: Leans New Mexico State, but will be in the air during the game.

Friday Night Slate

• Chip: New Mexico +2.5 over San Jose State. Logic: Lobos “rise up.”
• Bud: USF -27.5 vs. Charlotte. Justification: “Style points don’t hurt if you’re in a job search.”
• Chip: San Diego State -6 vs. Colorado State; sees Aztecs’ momentum and Ram’s bad vibes continuing.

  “This is buying into San Diego State under a touchdown in a decent spot.” – Chip (16:46)

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4. Saturday’s Headliner Slates: Detailed Bets & Breakdowns

Commander-in-Chief Trophy – Air Force vs. Navy (20:24–22:23)

• Bud: Under 52.5
• Tom: Agreement. Points to service academy under trends (47-12-1 since 2005) and style matchup advantage.

  “Since 2005, unders in games between the service academies are 47-12-1. ...Average total is 34.6 points. Getting 52.5 here. Yeah, let’s do it.” – Tom (21:35)

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt (22:34–25:35)

• Consensus: Multiple overlaps
  • Bud & Chip: Over 55
  • Tom: Alabama team total over 33.5
  • Danny: Alabama -10.5
    • Stats: Vandy is 1–17 vs. Bama in Tuscaloosa all-time.
    • Analysis: Bama’s offense should roll, Vandy can score enough to help hit the over.

    “Bama sort of reasserts itself. The best thing that happened to DeBoer for his team was what happened last year.” – Danny (25:35)

Texas vs. Florida (27:06–29:32)

• Chip: First half under 20.5

  “I’m going with the Gators defense to fight early on. ...That’s the sweat I want, just the first 30 minutes.” – Chip (27:45)

• Bud: Notes aggressive line movement (~10 points); Florida considered at +7, but “just SEC needs Texas to win here.”
• Danny & Tom: Stay away, see randomness potential.

Penn State at UCLA (30:06–31:57)

• Chip: UCLA team total under 12.5; wants “four quarters of being locked in on the Rose Bowl.”
• Tom: Warns of “42–10 situation”—could be a blowout with backdoor sweats.

Florida State vs. Miami (32:31–36:16)

• Early action: Crew locked in the over early (see above).
• Tom: Contrarian with under 55; predicts slower tempo, Miami dictating pace.

  “I think Florida State’s going to get points on the board...but I just don’t think they’re going to be able to get the tennis match going.” – Tom (33:39)

• Bud: Calls for “bar fight” game, expects weirdness and a close finish.
• Chip: Florida State 1st quarter +0.5; expects strong FSU start in “rocking” home environment.

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5. Rest of the Board / Other Key Picks

• Notre Dame vs. Boise State (38:40–41:34)

  • Tom: ND -20.5; “must win by margin for style points.”
  • Guest Mackenzie Brooks: Notre Dame team total over 41.5 – “We will never not play this until it doesn’t hit.”

• Iowa State at Cincinnati

  • Mackenzie & Danny: Iowa State +1.5; “covering machines on the road.”
  • Chip: Cincinnati -1.5, citing kicker issues for ISU; consensus on show that hosts fade Chip’s ISU picks at their own risk.

• Virginia at Louisville

  • Danny: Over 60.5; “Points, points, points.”
  • Chip: Virginia +7; Louisville’s “screws not tight,” possible upset.

• Kentucky vs. Georgia

  • Tom: Kentucky +20.5; expects an “ugly, low-scoring” game where Georgia just aims to win.
  • Danny: Under 48.5 for the game.

• Wisconsin at Michigan

  • Danny & Tom: Under 43.5; neither trusts Wisconsin to score, Michigan to ground-and-pound.

• Texas Tech vs. Houston

  • Chip & Bud: Texas Tech -10.5; believe TTU is a “good football team” and will “win by two touchdowns.”

• Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M

  • Tom: Mississippi State +14.5 (“A&M’s D isn’t that good”).

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6. Moneyline Sprinkles (Upset Specials) (68:13–72:31)

• Bud (Sicko Mode): Temple +205, Wake +220, Boston College +200, ULM +380, Nevada +440
• Danny: BC +200, Florida +215
• Tom: Wake +220, Cal +130, Maryland +210
• Chip: New Mexico State +120, Virginia +205, Maryland +210, UCF +170
• Notable debate over Maryland’s potential to upset Washington; Tom invokes Washington’s Rutgers loss as precedent:

  “Washington was off to a hot start last year until they traveled across the country to play a game on the east coast against Rutgers.” – Tom (71:23)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Service academy under insight:

  “Last year, in fact, like the last seven games between Service Academy...the average total has been 34.6 points. Getting 52 and a half here...Let’s do it.” – Tom (21:17–22:18)

• Danny on his kicking days:

  “I was all-county as a punter, too…The stipulation was I was only allowed to play quarterback.” (45:55–46:48)

• On betting and self-interest:

  “I root for me, right? I don’t really root for teams. I root to be right.” – Chip (34:01)

• On Alabama-Vandy:

  “Vandy’s been a big over team. You go to over margin per game...they are confident enough to handle their business and are more than happy to go out there and keep throwing punches.” – Chip (23:52)

• On Bankroll discipline:

  “If you’re watching this live, get on that (FSU-Miami over). That’s not coming back.” – Bud (07:42)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Recap of Week 5 Results: 03:00–09:44
• Early Live Bet FSU-Miami Over: 07:22–08:10
• Weeknight/Friday Games: 12:24–17:12
• Service Academy Under: 20:24–22:23
• Alabama–Vanderbilt Picks: 22:34–25:35
• Texas–Florida Discussion: 27:06–29:32
• Penn State–UCLA Team Total Under: 30:06–31:57
• FSU-Miami Bets & Banter: 32:31–36:16
• Notre Dame-Boise & Iowa State-Cincy Debates: 38:40–44:52
• Moneyline Sprinkles: 68:13–72:31

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Final Leaderboard & Locks Summary (64:19–66:44)

Top picks across the episode:

• Bud: Vanderbilt-Bama over 55, Miami-FSU over 53.5, Air Force-Navy under 52.5, USF -27.5, Kansas -3.5, Michigan State-Nebraska over 48, Texas Tech -10.5
• Chip: Vanderbilt-Bama over 55, New Mexico +2.5, San Diego State -6, Texas-Florida 1H under 20.5, Cincinnati -1.5, UCLA team total under 12.5, Texas Tech -10.5, FSU 1Q +0.5, ND team total over 41.5, Virginia +7
• Danny: Vandy-Bama over 55.5, Miami-FSU over 53.5, Bama -10.5, Sam Houston -1.5, Iowa State +1.5, Wisconsin-Michigan under 43.5, Virginia-Louisville over 60.5, UK-UGA under 48.5, Washington -6.5
• Tom: Alabama team total over 33.5, Miami-FSU under 55.5, Air Force-Navy under 52.5, Notre Dame -20.5, Kentucky +20.5, Wisconsin-Michigan under 43.5, Miss State +14.5, Illinois-Purdue over 55.5, Northwestern -10.5

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Tone and Language

• Engaging, real-time banter, self-deprecating humor, strong opinions on betting lines but always with a collaborative and friendly energy.
• Frequent use of stats, historical trends, and “inside baseball” knowledge for college football fans and bettors.
• The hosts play off each other’s hunches and trends, often referencing prior weeks' results and personal betting histories.

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This summary captures the strategic picks, analysis, in-jokes, and betting wisdom that fill each episode of Cover 3, offering both entertainment and serious locking advice for college football fans.

Transcript

[A]

This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time only, new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code cover 3 and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days, you'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App.

[B]

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast.

[A]

With your host, Chip Patter, Tom Fernelli.

[C]

Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott, it's your.

[B]

Call for the best college football coverage.

[C]

From national signing day to the national.

[B]

Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[A]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Frinelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID three tail gay. Where apparently Iowa State is nine and oh, the past two seasons when Chip picks against him. Let's see. Wow, wow, wow.

[D]

All right, I need to see receipts on that.

[A]

Buckle up. That's what Cole in the tailgate says. Yes, it is the best time of the week. It is Thursday. But before we get into our locks for week six, before we even review week five results, we got to remind you one more time that on Friday we are going to be in Tallahassee, Madison Social, right in the middle of College Town. Friday, 3:00pm Eastern Time. Now, the event is free. All you've got to do is get in there and if you do, we will have lots for you. We will have, of course, all the things that you love of the COVID 3 podcast. We'll be going deeper into this game. We're giving you our locks today. But how about some props, right? You know, how about some last minute things to look for going all over the board. Then we will have some trivia. We will have some giveaways. We want Miami fans involved too. So Miami fans, come on. Florida State fans will know you'll be there. Madison Social, 3pm is when the show gets started, but we'll be hanging out all or all day on on Friday all around Collegetown before the block party gets started. Any anything else? How's the pack list going? Is everybody, everybody got their, their cutest clothes on?

[D]

It's an easy pack for me. I'm only there for like one day. I needed one outfit.

[A]

Stop telling people that.

[B]

Yeah, in in orange and green.

[A]

I don't know.

[C]

I don't know.

[A]

I wonder if he's gonna get that mask right. You know, the, the, like that green and orange mask that, that'll pop up. I haven't seen that guy recently. I've seen the garnet. Yeah, I've seen the garnet. Gold boys. I haven't seen glitter boys. Glitter boys. Yeah. Glitter boys will be in the house. We're excited about it, to come on out. Should be a lot of fun. All right, before we look ahead, we got to look back. Let's get into our Week 5 results from last week. Bud Elliott. It was a five and six week. The wins were Ohio State minus seven and a half. Alabama, Georgia under 52 and a half. Trader Duke minus five and a half. Notre Dame team total over 34 and a half. Cincinnati Kansas over 56 and a half. Took some losses on Florida State minus six and a half. Took pins loss on Penn State minus three and a half. LSU plus one and a half. Missouri first quarter minus ten and a half. Louisville Pit under 58 and Utah. West Virginia under 48. Push City on TCU plus three and Push City on Cal. Boston College over 52. Thoughts from the week?

[B]

Yeah, so the only, only points that UMass scored were in the first quarter, so. Yeah, good, good work there.

[A]

You, I just needed 15 minutes, man. Come on, that's all we needed.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I just, just keep kind of, kind of shoving it around here on, on the spreads. I, I'm usually much better at those than I am in the money lines. And this year it's just not the case at all. I, I, you know, honestly, like, of the ones that I lost, LSU was pretty clearly wrong side. I, I didn't know the right tackle was gonna like, you know, hurt himself in warm ups and not play. But still, like that wasn't that. It wouldn't really mattered. I, I don't think Ole Miss was the correct side in that game. Regardless, I was definitely wrong there. I mean, Utah just ported on West Virginia so, you know, very wrong there. Louisville pit. I would probably bet that again, to be honest, they had the early defensive score that kind of put it in a game script that you knew you were going to be screwed there and like it almost went under even with that. But once I saw that, I was like, all right, we are, we're gonna have Louisville in catch up mode. This is not likely to go under. That happens sometimes. So yeah, just need to do better.

[A]

Five and six for the week has him at 26 and 28 for the season six and four week for me Cash and wins on Florida State team total over 33 and a half the Ohio State Washington under 52 and a half the LSU Ole Miss first half under 27 and a half the USC Illinois first half under 30 and a half the Tennessee Mississippi State first quarter over 14 UMass first quarter plus 13 and a half taking some losses on Oregon Penn State under 52 and a half and the Alabama Georgia over 52 and a half the Auburn Texas A&M over 52. That was A, that was a stinker pretty much from the jump. And then BYU third quarter. I don't know who else was tracking that one or if anybody tailed me, but we, we had it. We had a, had a shot, just didn't, didn't quite get the stops that we needed. Colorado gets a late score and then to, you know, twist the knife. BYU scores early fourth quarter but six and four is a winning week. We will take it. Obviously pain there on the Oregon Penn State you go under 52 and a half goes overtime at 1717. Them's the breaks. Seen a lot of overtime so far this year. You end up catching that. So six and four for the week, 32 and 25 for the season. Danny five and five week for you. We cash in Wins on the Oregon plus three and a half the Auburn plus plus six and a half Some lock fight wins, bar fight wins for Danny Canel. Duke minus five and a half. Walk that to the window. Over 59 and a half in Florida State, Virginia, Washington first half plus four and a half gets it done. Taking losses on Florida State minus six and a half USC minus six and a half the Alabama Georgia over 52 and a half Arkansas plus four and a half Indiana Iowa over 47 and a half and then you also caught a push on the TCU plus three thoughts on the week the only ones.

[C]

That were awful I thought were Arkansas taking them with four and a half and taking the Indiana Iowa over. Trying to go for the Iowa overs there. Indiana didn't pull up there and neither did Iowa. The BAMA Georgia over 52 and a half. We were all on. Felt like it was going to be great at halftime and then just came to a screeching halt.

[B]

But yeah, can we do an early bet before this keeps getting hit? If you're watching us live, this is, this is really annoying. Like three of the ones I want to bet. Florida State over 53 and a half looks like it's starting to get hammered here. I know we said in yesterday's show that we want agreement.

[A]

Let's go.

[C]

Let's just start it off. Let the children sing.

[B]

If you're watching this live, get on that. That's not coming back.

[C]

What else. What else are we going with?

[B]

That's not normal course, but like we've been talking about it all week. Like if you guys tune in live.

[A]

Like, like, you know, famous last words, by the way, you just broke decorum. And I think we'll see what ends up happening. Now there's a before. Before the locks animation even rolls. Trying to get it. That might be a cursed play now. I don't even know.

[B]

It might be.

[A]

We'll see. All right, Danny, proceed.

[C]

No, I'm good. I was like. Other than that, it was crap. Whatever.

[A]

Okay, five and five for the week. 25 and 26 for the season. Tom, six and four week for you. Ohio State team total over. Excuse me. Ohio State team total under 30 and a half as a winner. Rice Navy under 45 and a half as a winner. Oregon plus three and a half. Getting in on a bar fight victory. Then you also cash the Notre Dame team total over 34 and a half. Utah State plus 22 and a half. Rutgers, Minnesota over 50 and a half. The losses were USC minus six and a half. Alabama, Georgia over 52 and a half. Texas A and M minus six and a half. Tough. And Kentucky, South Carolina under 46 and a half.

[D]

Nothing really to complain about. Just plugging away credit to South Carolina's offense. They finally had a decent performance. And the. The loss in the Bama. Georgia overheard because that game was trending very much in that direction in the first half. But then everybody just decided to stop scoring points in the second half. So what are you going to do?

[A]

I mean, drops touchdown passes, fourth down, stops, you know, in scoring position. Yeah, it's. It was. It was tough in the evening slate. But that's all right.

[B]

Was the right side.

[A]

You guys had the right side, but that is that. Six and four for the week. Tom Fornelli still your leader for the season at 27 and 18. All right, let's get that behind us. Let's get our eyes ahead. And I ask you gentlemen, you all ready to lock it up?

[D]

We know Bud and Danny are. Since 2005, the under in games between service academies is 49 and 1.

[C]

Give me an over in this one as well. A little two for one special.

[B]

I was a sicko last week. Y' all were watching the good games. I was live betting the hell out of UL in Kentucky My blue plate special five star locks are coming.

[A]

Five star master lock. Lock it. These locks. I'm, I'm, I'm living and dying.

[B]

Every, every point, every couple.

[A]

From the locking chair to your eyes and ears. And a reminder that locks are sponsored all season long by Cash App. Making money moves should be easy. And that's why there's Cash App. It's fast, safe, and honestly, way more personalized than other apps out there. Our thanks to Cash App, which is the sponsor of the Cash App trophy, which is. Which will be awarded to the season long winner, Tom, of course, currently in first place in the chase for the Cash app trophy. Thank you to Cash App for your support of the COVID three locks this season. All right, let's begin like we always do with a look at the weeknight action. And there's a little something special that's coming your way here on Thursday night. One Thursday night college football game. I It is Sam Houston at New Mexico State. You can see it on CBS Sports Network. But tailgate, this is where we need you, okay? Because at halftime of this game on CBS Sports Network, your boys from the COVID 3 podcast will be making an appearance. We are fired up to be a part of this halftime show. So here's what we want from you. We want you obviously to not only be locked into Sam Houston New Mexico State here on Thursday night on CBS Sports Network, we want you to watch the halftime show and we want you to show us how you are watching this game, how you are watching the COVID 3 podcast on the halftime show for tonight's CUSA action. So share your setup because, look, it might be a multi screen night. You know, maybe who you're living with doesn't understand the power of Thursday night cusa. Maybe you got to go side screen. Maybe you're watching on the phone. You show us how you are watching the COVID three podcast. Share the photo and then tag Cover three podcast and CBS sportsnet again, that's CBS sportsnet and Cover three podcast, take a photo of your setup of you watching the COVID 3 podcast during the halftime show of New Mexico State and Sam Houston. All right? Now, all that being said, who's got a lock?

[C]

I do.

[A]

Yeah, let's go.

[C]

That's the only way I'm watching this game to watch our little halftime Diddy that we're gonna have on there. This is a totally. This is just a follow the line, Sam Houston Zone 4. New Mexico State's 2 and 2. So you're thinking, oh, man, New Mexico State should be a heavy favorite. In this game, right? I mean, Sam Houston isn't very good, but Sam Houston, we're gonna see that kid that was just dunked on by Arch Manning. Embarrassed, humiliated. He is highly motivated. Now give me Sam Houston. Lay the one and a half.

[A]

Come on. I've got more on this later. I'm not gonna go ahead, Tom.

[D]

My Twitter tip is New Mexico State. I'm not going to get into a fight with you. No, I'm gonna be on a plane during this game. I'm gonna be in a plane. So it's like I'm not gonna be able to just yell at you online while I'm kicking your ass. So there's really no fun for it.

[A]

I've got more on this game a little bit later. You know, I'm not even playing around with points here. I just. We want winners. All right, let's go on to Friday night. A five pack of games. Western Kentucky, Delaware, with a little bit more Cayusa action in the American Charlotte visits South Florida, New Mexico, San Jose State, Mountain West, BYU welcomes in West Virginia, and San Diego State hosts Colorado State. Me, you, anybody else jumping on this?

[D]

I've got nothing.

[A]

Okay. All right, number one, guys. Boys, I know, I know that the Lobos were kind of, you know, messing around with the New Mexico State team. We thought they would handle. But underdogs at San Jose State, we for real about that. I mean, Jason. I know. Jason's a huge Cover 3 podcast listener. Jason, if you want to be on that Wisconsin list, you can't be losing to San Jose State on Friday night. You know, I. I think that this is where the Lobos rise up. I'm gonna go New Mexico State plus two and a half.

[D]

Don't hang.

[B]

I'm gonna. I'm gonna stay in the state here. Wait, anybody else in this game?

[A]

No, I've got. I've got one more for Friday night.

[B]

I just got to check the weather here real fast just to be sure.

[D]

If it's in San Diego, it'll be 69 and partly cloudy.

[B]

We're actually going to Tampa.

[D]

Okay.

[A]

Oh.

[B]

Arkansas job is open. Oklahoma State job is open. Tech job is open. I think at least one of Florida or Auburn are going to open style. Points don't hurt if you're in a job search. I think go less runs it up on Charlotte, who lost their quarterback, Connor Harrell. Give me USF -27 and a half. Full game.

[A]

All right. I mean that. I like that. I got one more for Friday and Let's go to CBS Sports Network, Snapdragon Stadium. Let's go.

[D]

69. Partly cloudy.

[A]

Line too little. Line too little. Give me San Diego State. I'll lay these points now. I understand they are coming back from DeKalb, right? As we detailed in our PNC. Brilliantly boring wins of the week. San Diego State, Aztecs getting that look. But I don't think that Colorado State changing play callers is going to change the overall trajectory and direction of this Colorado State football team. I think San Diego State's starting to build a little bit of confidence, something that they haven't had inside that building here for a minute. They have the opportunity to improve to 4 and 1 while Colorado State is just really in a bad, bad place. This was, I think five and a half, six. Are we going to get six still or do I have to go six and a half?

[D]

I get six.

[A]

All right, I'll take. Yeah, I'll take six. San Diego State minus six against Colorado State.

[D]

Donated.

[A]

Anything else for Friday night.

[B]

They've played really well. Colorado State has been very disappointing to say the least.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. This is not a. I don't like to assume that I have the true beat of what's going on inside the building at Colorado State. What I do understand is the vibes of everything around, especially in direct proximity to that is not. Not good. So I'm not going to have confidence. This is the rise up and throw a haymaker. This is. This is buying into to San Diego State under a touchdown in a decent spot.

[D]

Did Colorado State make a mistake firing Mike Bobo? That's what Georgia fans want to know. Maybe they need to need to go backwards to go forwards.

[A]

It's there for you. I mean, Jay Norvell, like, got it at Nevada. Right. But then you also go back and you're like, okay, well, Romeo Dubs is unguardable in the NFL. No wonder he was, you know, dominant in the Mountain West. Okay, all right, you know, start. Put some pieces together. But yeah, all right. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to Saturday, beginning with some of the headliners, which include a Florida State Miami game that the no boys have already fired on. But we've got more bets on that and more.

[D]

Next.

[A]

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[C]

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[A]

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[C]

Fantasy Football Today, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network, has episodes every single day. Waiver wire, trade talk, starter sit, mailbags and more.

[A]

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[C]

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[A]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. As we continue to roll through our week six locks, we turn our attention to some of the big games coming up on Saturday. Starting in the noon slate with the first game of a double header on cbs, the Commander in Chief trophy competition is underway. Air Force going to play Navy and the planes find themselves as double digit dogs. Navy 11 and a half, 12 and a half over under 51 or 52 and some change. Who's got a lockdown?

[D]

Anybody?

[B]

I do.

[D]

Anybody have a lock on this Service Academy game?

[C]

Take the floor.

[B]

Hey, are we doing this, Tom?

[D]

I. I don't know what you're doing. I would love to hear we're going.

[B]

Under under 52 and a half. I don't love Air Force's secondary. I don't know how much that matters in a game against Navy.

[D]

I'M so happy to hear that. I thought you were going over. You were Deacon me the entire damn week. Yes. Lock agreement.

[A]

Oh, right. Thank you.

[D]

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but since 2005, unders and games between the service academies are 47, 12 and 1. Yeah, like Bud just mentioned, the Air Force defense stinks. But, but like they gave up points to Hawaii. Hawaii plays a very different style than what Navy's going to play. Air Force's defense faces the same Navy offense pretty much every single day in practice. If there is an offense that this team is capable of stopping, it's the one they're used to facing. So yeah, the under this is way too high. Last year, in fact like the last seven games between Service Academy. So going back to the 2022 Army Navy game, the average total has been 34.6 points. Getting 52 and a half here.

[A]

So.

[D]

Yeah, let's do it.

[A]

Love it.

[B]

Let's go.

[A]

All right. Danny, Anything here?

[C]

Are you.

[A]

I'm gonna pay my respects. Yeah. I'm gonna respectfully enjoy this game.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna have a lock on this one. On into the afternoon slate where among the other offerings we have Vanderbilt built making a trip to Tuscaloosa. Boy, we talked about this game a lot on big game breakdown. Now I, we've. We've done a detailed breakdown. So now we got to know who's got a lock.

[B]

I do.

[A]

Me too. You go first.

[B]

Are there any 50? Yeah, there's, there's a 55. There's two 55s out there.

[A]

Yeah. Come on. Come on now.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Oh yeah.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

Like Vandy can score. I think they can score in Alabama and Poppy's either scoring points for Vandy or he's gonna score points for Alabama. And I'm pretty certain Alabama could score quite a bit here. So.

[D]

You guys got anything you want to add? Because I've got to play in this game too, but I don't want to.

[C]

So do I, but go ahead. I just took one.

[A]

Oh, you've got a two for one special.

[C]

Oh yeah, you know I do.

[A]

Oh that's right. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So also Vandy's been a big over team. You know, they've been crushing their team totals. You go to the over margin per game, you know, you're like, oh good. Now granted, over margin per game heavily skewed by them taking. Exercising some demons against Georgia State. I realize that small sample size and those things, but yeah, I just, I think that this is not a. As we said all week, I don't think this is an offense that has to go super slow. I think they are confident enough to handle their business and trade paint and are more than happy to go out there and just keep throwing punches against this Alabama team which. Look man, there's. There is an aspect of this where I don't think that they are going to lose focus after beating Georgia. But there is a physical, emotional release that comes after a game like that. So even if it's just a fraction of a step slow, that could be a. That could be a difference maker against this Vanderbilt team.

[D]

I'm along the same line of thought as you guys. I'm playing it a little differently though. Give me the Alabama team total over 33 and a half because I do think Vandy will be able to score and move the ball against Alabama. I just, I'm not as confident in that as I am in that I believe Alabama will be able to score points against this Vanderbilt defense because I think that Alabama, as we talked about this in the big game breakdown, I think they're much better equipped to throw the ball this year than they were last year with Jaylen Milro. And I think that that's something that Vanderbilt's going to have a more difficult time stopping than they had to deal with last year. And even then last year they still gave up 35 points. So yeah, team total over 33 and a half.

[C]

I'm sure you guys have seen our notes. Vanderbilt is 1 in 17 versus Alabama in Tuscaloosa all time. Their only win back in 1984. Vanderbilt is 1 in 61 on the road versus AP top 10 teams all time. But you got to win by more than ten and a half which the Crimson Tide will lay the points 42 to 24. I think Alabama easily goes over that total you just gave. I do think Vanderbilt will score some in this game. I don't know if it's through the air. Probably hit a big player too. But this is one where Bama sort of reasserts itself. The best thing that happened to Kaylin DeBoer for his team was what happened last year. That's the only wake up call they need. Diego Pavia is out there running his mouth, which he always has and he's always been able to cash those checks. I don't know. This one I think might bounce in Tuscaloosa.

[A]

Oh, clip that. No, no, don't clip it. He. He said that Diego Pavia bounces checks.

[C]

No, I said he hasn't yet. I said he hasn't yet.

[A]

A Pavia mafia. What's the drive from Tuscaloosa to Tallahassee?

[C]

I would love to be wrong. I would love to be wrong. I would love to be wrong. Trust me, would love it.

[A]

Also in, in a robust afternoon slate we've got Texas going to play Florida. Lots of, lots of sort of competing sides to this where I don't think Texas is necessarily thrilled with the way that things have gone. Florida certainly not at 1 and 3. Small line, maybe just from a vibes perspective, but I, I got a lot. Can I, can I. You mind if I just grab this one? First half, under 20 and a half.

[B]

Oh.

[D]

Which game was this?

[B]

Texas. Florida. Texas.

[A]

Florida on the off. On the off chance that Texas has a lead and Florida lets go of the rope because like, I mean Bud, did you mention on the. Yeah. I don't want to give away like your numbers or whatever but like you mentioned that even with how much this has moved that perhaps it maybe has not even moved enough. But I just as I was going through and I was trying to like visualize and build out the game, I still think under is the right side. But on the off chance that Florida lets go of the rope and Texas season opportunity to start building some confidence, you know, just like getting to a little bit of rhythm. But I do, I'm going with the Gators defense to fight early on. So I mean crazy low number. I understand but that's the sweat that I think I want. It's just the first 30 minutes.

[B]

I mean I will say this like Fanduel I think has been really, really good this year with their openers. I think they are much sharper than they used to be with these. They did open this 51 and a half and now it's 41 and a half. Like this is a 10 point move.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

It'S kind of wild like for a game that doesn't have weather. Obviously there's a game in Nebraska I'm sure we'll talk about that has, you know, mid-20s wins. That makes sense. And that that only moved like eight.

[A]

Anybody else got to play on this one?

[B]

I, I thought about Florida at seven. Most of Sevens are pretty juiced.

[D]

I, I don't want anything to do with this game, boys.

[B]

I mean it's just SEC needs Texas to win here. Yeah, like needs it.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Like if I'm forced to watch this game, I only want it to be because it's like a good close game. I don't want to have to be worrying about a lock for this slop festival.

[C]

I kind of want to take the over. It's like an over correct. It's an over correction that 10 point swing and for what Chip said, if there is a quit factor, you know, do they. Do they air it out a little bit? Do they are able to get some big plays in the second half but man, it's got to be close to Texas getting 30 plus points in this one. I'll stay away. I'm going to use some discipline. Discipline. Danny's back and I'm over back in any bet with the Gators involved in it. So I'll stay away from it.

[A]

All right, we'll keep it moving. Also in the afternoon slate, it is big time on cbs. Penn State traveling out to the Rose bowl to take on ucla. We got a change in offensive coordinator for ucla. Will it lead two different results? And what does Penn State do after losing in double overtime at home on Saturday night? Who's got a lock? UCLA team total under 12 and a half.

[D]

That's that. That was the one thing I was considering.

[A]

Yes, listen, we are going to be dialed in to Brad and Gary and Jenny dell for all four quarters because when you take a team total under 12 and a half, buddy, you better be locked in the whole time. We got to show culture, Penn State because when the backups come in, we need you fighting hard to make sure that they don't get into the end zone. You can have one touchdown, you can have one field goal, but there is not another score that we can allow beyond those two events. I mean, you can allow four field goals, sure, but we prefer that not to be as that sweaty UCLA team total under 12 and a half. Four quarters of being locked in on the Rose bowl on cbs, America's most watched network, the network of stars.

[B]

So you're saying UCLA might have a half share of points and then any kind of injection of private capital won't be coming on time.

[D]

I just, I foresee a 42 to 10 situation. Penn State's got the backups in on defense. UCLA has got the ball in the fourth quarter. We drive to the 30 yard line and 3 seconds left. Out comes the field goal team and chips just like. Oh, no.

[A]

Could happen. It could happen. All right, let's. Any. Anything. Anything else here? No. Oh, wow, that's weird. All right, let's keep it moving. Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Saturday night. First time in about a decade we've had both these teams as ranked teams. 70th meeting overall and, and many of those have been of, of the variety where they are both ranked. So big time, big stakes. Florida State of course looking to bounce back from the loss against Virginia. Miami coming out of an off week undefeated up in the top five. So who's got. All right, we already got two overs. Does it do have anything else on this game bet wise?

[D]

I do.

[A]

I've got, yeah, I've got something.

[D]

There's a lot of love on the show today. We've got a lock unity, we've got lock green agreements. Everybody's all excited. We're going to Tallahassee for this one and there's going to be a bar fight at Madison Social because I am taking the under 54 and a half fight.

[B]

You can get 55.

[D]

Oh yes I will. Then maybe we can get ourselves a happy little middle and everybody wins. But I just think this game's going to come down to dictatorship hating tempo and I think Miami will be able to has a better shot of doing that. So I, I think Florida State's going to get points on the board. Like I don't think this is going to be like a blowout. I really don't. I, I just think that Florida State's going to have trouble finding consistency so they might pop a couple big plays, get some points up there, but I just don't think they're going to be able to get the tennis match going that I feel like they need to really pull off the upset here. So I think it'll be a lower scoring game more in like that 27 to 24 kind of range.

[B]

I went, I went 33, 31 canes. So I, I, I think Cast Long is either scoring for FSU or he's scoring for Miami. Like he's not a throw it away on fourth down type guy. He's a force the issue guy. For better or worse.

[A]

Self care Saturday from a locks perspective which of course is really where most of my passion is. Like what is your bias? You know what it. I root for me, right? You know those, I don't, I don't really root for teams. I root for me. I root to be right. I don't want anything more than about 15 minutes of this game, you know, from an emotional perspective, very much looking forward because you know what I think this game is? I think this game is going to come down to a muffed punt. Like I think this game is going to come down to a missed field goal. This is going to come down to something stupid. We're going to go to the ACC review room and see whether or not a knee was down or not. I mean, this, we're going to be so cool whether Al Riveron is or is not in the bag for Miami, you know, just like we did after, you know, Miami and like, Al's like very open and like transparent. He's doing, doing, doing a great job of being able to chair that. But I just think that at the end of this, it just, it scared it, it frightens me. So I'm gonna go with Florida State first quarter plus a half a point. Miami coming out of an off week, right? First true road environment. Florida State, I mean, probably was ready for the game three days later. Like, you go through recovery and they just want to get back out there after the way that things ended in Charlottesville. So to, to be able to think about do I trust Miami first true road game to be able to start hot versus the building's going to be rocking. Gus probably has that first 15 dialed in. And Mario, he does want this to be a heavyweight fight. He wants this to be body blows. I don't see them taking a lot of risks right out the jump. So Florida State first quarter plus a half a point Knowles lead or tie game after 15 minutes gets me the winner I need and then I can just enjoy it. And when this ultimately does come down to something stupid at the end, we will talk about it on the instant reaction show at 11:30pm Eastern time, but it will not impact my, my overall locks enjoyment. So that's, that's where we're going there. Florida State better start. They win the first quarter or it's tied. Florida State or draw. For those out there.

[B]

The double chance.

[A]

Florida State double chance in the first quarter. Let's go. All right, coming up on the other side, we open up the card to all of the week six picks and more next. What's up everyone? It's Siya Najad from Fantasy Football Today dfs, a weekly NFL daily fantasy show that's a part of the CBS Sports Podcast network. If you're looking for NFL game by game previews, which player stock is up or down, and DFS strategies and advice. Mike McClure, Meg Shoup and I have you covered every single week. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and any anywhere podcasts are found, make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.

[B]

Good luck, Carolina.

[A]

Basketball isn't just a program, it's a legacy. I'm John Henson and we'll be the.

[B]

Host of Tar Heel 247, a UNC.

[A]

Basketball podcast for fans who bleed Carolina blue. Each week I'll be joined by players, coaches and insiders for real, unfiltered conversations about the team. The traditional maybe some funny stories and everything in between. No filters, no fluff. Just hoop talk the Tar Heel way. Subscribe now to Tar Heel247 at UNC Basketball Podcast or wherever you get your podcast at. We're gonna have a good time. Let's get ready to go back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Let's review the locks that we have on the board so far. Far Bud has Vanderbilt Bama over 55 Miami Florida State over 53 1/2 Air Force Navy under 52 1/2 South Florida minus 27 1/2 I'm on Vanderbilt Bama over 55 New Mexico plus 2 1/2 San Diego State minus 6 Texas Florida 1st half under 20 1/2 UCLA team total under 12 1/2 Florida State 1st quarter plus a half a point Danny's on Vanderbilt Obama over 55 Miami Florida State over 53 2/2 Alabama minus 10 1/2 Sam Houston minus 1 1/2 and Tom Scott, Alabama team total over 33 1/2 Miami Florida State under 55 1/2 Air Force Navy under 502 1/2 and Tom, we you and I both were 6 and 4, but you've got the honors as the season leader. So take us where you would like to go.

[D]

Let's see, where do I want to start? Start with Notre Dame and Boise State. We've talked about it. Notre Dame has no room for error, nor do they have much left on their schedule to impress anybody with by just simply beating them. Notre Dame has to beat the hell out of them going forward. And Boise State, to me, we saw them lose their opener against South Florida. Turns out Ashton Genti was a big part of this team. They're still good. They're still one of the better teams in the Mountain west, but they're not the same team I think that they were last year. I think physically they are not going to really be able to keep up with Notre Dame. And as we saw last week against Arkansas, if Notre Dame has a chance to make it look more impressive than they do and do stuff like running fake punts while up 30 points in the third quarter, Notre Dame is going to do it. So I think this 20 and a half is a little too little. Give me Notre Dame minus 20 and a half.

[A]

You know, that's, that's really serendipitous because this is a show that moves fast. It's got a lot of twists and turns and, and you've called out that Notre Dame game. And I, I think that that's a, that's a good opportunity for us to, to hear another way to, to wager on this one.

[D]

Hey, whose office is that?

[A]

Yeah. Oh, the people. Give it up. Club Kansas back. Mackenzie Brooks coming to you live from Danny Canal's office.

[E]

Guys, I mean, this, this office is empty quite often now.

[A]

So I think I'm just, I don't.

[E]

Think I've seen Danny here.

[C]

I was there yesterday. Where were you?

[E]

That's the one day I don't come in the office. And I host a college football pick show on CBS sports network at 12 o' clock for those keeping track at home.

[A]

There you go. Okay. Ken's. Tom just turned his attention to Notre Dame. If, if I know you like I do, there's a, there's another way to wager on this. The, the truly your, your comfy blanket of college football wagering. Are we going back to the well?

[E]

We are going back to the well until the wheels fall off. Death taxes. Notre Dame team total overs. We will never not play this until they do not hit it. This is the prime position for them all they ever want a style points. It used to be Ole Miss last year, honestly, still could be Ole Miss. But Notre Dame is one of those teams that no matter how much they're up by everything Tom was saying, I think they can go over this 41 and a half. We've played it from 31 and a half to 35 and a half. 37 and a half. Now it's up against Boise. But Boise has a very large tackling problem as you guys, I believe, were talking about before. And they allowed like 34 and 37 to teams like South Florida. So respectfully, I feel like this is a prime spot for Notre Dame to get all of their style points this season.

[A]

I mean, 41 and a half. I like it. It's. It's also on my card as well. So I will real quickly let the children sing. All right, Kenzan, you got one more that'll get us to a nice pivot point point. What's it, what's your next one?

[E]

Yeah, a nice little underdog sprinkle here. Not even a sprinkle. They're not even that big of dogs by like Iowa State on the road to take it home against Cincinnati. I do not like that Cincinnati not only lost in Nebraska, gave up 20 points to Bowling Green but also gave up 34 points to Kansas. Like I do think that Iowa State will be able to run up some numbers on this team. And Iowa State has been a covering machine on the road in conference in general as well. So I feel like Cincinnati, we're giving them a little too much flowers for their shootout situation that they got into with Kansas. That honestly was a red flag to me. So I like Iowa State here and.

[A]

We stay intellectually honest. We haven't gotten a chance to talk about that game again. This worked out very well because Fight, fight, fight, fight. I am going with Cincinnati right here. Iowa State does not have a starting kicker. Iowa State does not have a backup kicker. We are going to a walk on who just pizzas to the team on Wednesday night. Our cornerback issue is very problematic. I see an Iowa State team going on the road to the nip where the Bearcats need. They need a good win. And listen, when you're Scott Satterfield, you want to be able to call this a top 15 win and this is a chance to get a top 15 win. I'm going to take Cincinnati and I'm going to lay the point and a half. But don't worry mackenzie. We need to check their math. But the tailgate says every time I picked against Iowa State they're 9 0. So you know what? It's just like all time.

[C]

We have a lock agreement here except it is not with Chip, it's with Club Ken's on this one. I tried to tell you this tip. I tried to tell you you're so obsessed with the kickers being out. I was an all county kicker. It's not that hard to find some soccer player to come over and put a couple extra points through the uprights. Plus Matt Campbell is the best when he is an underdog. And you and the rest of the country are still not respecting one of the best teams out there. It may not be pretty but they find ways to get it done. I'm with Ken's and I wouldn't be surprised if they win the game outright.

[E]

One more, one more fact here that I found. Cincinnati is 04 straight up and against the spread in their last four games versus ranked teams. That does take us back to 2021. But just something to be said there.

[D]

I will say, Ken, it's risky for you to show up and make picks because just by simply not picking you were crushing the guest competition on this.

[A]

Show this year because the Dentist is tanking.

[D]

The dentist is 2 and 7. Chris. We had on last week.

[A]

Our.

[D]

Our winner for charity. He went four and six. So you're really putting your first place spot on the line right now.

[E]

Yeah, I didn't even think about that.

[D]

You could have just kneeled it out.

[A]

For the rest of the season.

[E]

Oh, in Tallahassee. I'm not going to say I'm not jealous, because I am. And I hope you guys have fun.

[A]

All right, thanks, Mackenzie.

[E]

One sprinkle that I don't want on my actual car, but just want to get it off my chest. I do think Maryland is alive to beat Washington outright this weekend at home. Coming off bye week.

[A]

You're not going to get pushed there. All right, thank you, Mackenzie. Have fun. All right, we got. Let's go. Danny, why don't you. Why don't you take us where you want to go?

[C]

Can we. I will go casually drop that he.

[B]

Was the all county kicker.

[D]

Yeah, I know. I was gonna say, can we unpack that?

[A]

Yeah, I wanted to unpack it on HQ Spotlight where I was like, what? Like, what is it? Is it the private school division?

[C]

I mean, yes, it 100 was the private school division because that's where else. I made all county as a punter, too. So I was not allowed to play football until. Actually, I wasn't allowed. My dad didn't want me to get hurt, so I wasn't allowed to play football until my junior year. And the stipulation was I was only allowed to play quarterback. Well, everybody in our team went both ways because we only had 24 guys on our team. So everybody went offense, defense. So I was like, come on. I was like, I gotta help out in some other way. So my junior year, I did not kick. We had a good kicker my senior year, had to take over the kicking duties, but I punted both gears and made all county. The senior year, Broward county, small 1A and 2A division. So we were 1A. So I did take down some loser that was a 2A that couldn't beat me out.

[B]

What other school? So, like, Aquinas is not in there. You guys were Newman.

[C]

Oh, God, no. Are you kidding me? Aquinas would have beat us 140 to nothing. Yeah, it was lopsided games.

[B]

What schools are.

[C]

They didn't try to get me to go to St. Thomas Private.

[A]

Yeah, that's what I was. I was like, because, Danny, truthful, I mean, we're in the part of the live show, like, we'll stack Danny up against his contemporaries in Florida State history. But, like, there's something that Is true Americana. About like, Danny was the best athlete at his school, would have played every single team, every single position if they would have allowed him to do it. So. Yeah, of course you are. You know, I mean, the, the true Jim Thorpe of Broward County. Yes.

[C]

That was great. Actually ran cross country and you ran cross country. The best part about it was you were able to play. So it was really good for my development because I was able to play varsity sports in eighth grade.

[A]

Right.

[C]

So like I was able to play varsity basketball and baseball in eighth grade, which was, which was a ton of fun. And it was good because I got to play against better competition. I loved playing all three sports. Every parent that's listening out there, stop the stupid specialization.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Having kids only be pitchers from the time they're 10 years old. Let them play all the sports they want to and have fun.

[D]

To your point about extra points, like, maybe it'll be different in a packed stadium, but in practice, I used to kick extra points all the time too. Like it's not that hard to kick an extra point now. A 35, 40 yard field goal gets a little more difficult without practice, but extra points really wasn't that difficult.

[C]

I mean, McAfee's field goal guys are like hitting it like 70 this year.

[D]

Those ringers. Those ringers.

[A]

I'm just saying, listen, we've, we, this is, you know, we got some, some tight timetables for some of us. But I mean, are we, are we, are we microwaving the balls? Right? Isn't it. Aren't the things you can do to the kicking balls that sort of make them fly a little bit farther? You put them in the laundry machine, pressurized weights and things. Yeah.

[D]

Situation.

[A]

It's an NFL that's like an NFL story right now is why are the field goals even longer? They said because they took out the requirement to turn in your kicking balls beforehand so the team gets to hold on to them or. Right. Until it's time to boot it.

[C]

That, I mean, last week they subbed out a kicker and it looked like one of the Grammatica's other kids. I mean, how many kids does this guy have? It's in there.

[A]

All right, Danny, take us where you want to go. All right.

[C]

I'm going to go to an ACC matchup. We just saw Virginia pull off the upset of the season in the ACC knocking off Florida State. Virginia's offense, they look really good. Now they got to go into Louisville, who their defense has actually been playing pretty good, but we've got three, two, of the top three offenses in the acc, I think you're going to see points, points, points. Virginia averages 45 a game. Louisville averages 38 a game. Give me the over 61 and a half.

[B]

Well, we can give you 60. 60 and a half.

[C]

Oh, even better.

[B]

So.

[D]

No, he's so confident. He wants the 61.

[A]

No, I do. Is it still six and a half? We don't have any sevens out there, do we?

[C]

I kind of like Virginia to keep this thing rolling. Have a. Like a classic tight game. Yeah.

[B]

There's a seven, Chip.

[A]

I'll take Virginia plus seven.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

I mean it. I don't know if Virginia just goes and totally has a letdown. Sure. You know, but I think that Louisville's. Screw. The screws on Louisville's car are not really tight right now. You know, there's some things that are rattling, and I just. I think that that's enough of a window for a team that has a little bit of confidence for them to maybe be able to go in and threaten for an upset. Yes, Brett. They were. Yes, Brett. Louisville did need a plus 4 in the turnover margin to. To be able to get out with that one score win against Pittsburgh.

[D]

Super lucky. It's always lucky when you get.

[B]

That's kind of what you get against Eli Holstein, by the way. Like.

[A]

Oh, don't. Jeff Braum game planned that. All right, bud, where do you want to go?

[B]

Well, I'm gonna go to one. That just doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and I think it's a schedule disparity thing. Right. Like, UCF could have lost to Jacksonville State. You know, they played unc, which UNC might be in the running for. Like, with all due respect to Chip, like might be in the running for the worst P5 team. Yeah. Or P4 team. Kansas has played, I think, a very good Missouri team and was, you know, fairly close to them at points in that game. They've played a Cincinnati team that I think should be undefeated right now, to be honest. If they don't throw that ridiculous pick at the end of the game against Nebraska, I think they do beat the Huskers in Lincoln. I don't think UCF really has any, like, good games. And I think Kansas. I don't mind Kansas losing a shootout. Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati is a different class than this rebuilding UCF team. I'm gonna go ahead and lay the three and a half points here in Orlando with Kansas. I think they are. I think this should be like six and a half, not three and a half.

[D]

So I just want to hold on. So you're saying that like the 33rd team in the NFL would be the 68th team in the power four.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Math checks.

[A]

I mean, but when the team I don't like, thankfully, you know, Tar Heel 247 does a great job. Andrew Jones is like, on it, on it, on it. He's already reported on some players that have left the program. And I think when the team takes the field on Saturday, when they get your binoculars out, we're going to find some more players who potentially have left the program. So it's don't. I don't see the turnaround happening coming out of the off week.

[B]

So are you laying it?

[A]

No, I don't want any part of self care Saturday. I want zero part of Clemson, North Carolina.

[B]

This is the kind of game Clemson flexes on like a outgunned opponent and it's like, all right, we're back, baby.

[A]

Sure. But I don't want to trust on that. Like, I've also seen Clemson fans being like, if club Nick doesn't have it by the third series, put in Vezina, I don't care. Like, that's how like, did you guys.

[C]

See what Clemson's updated win total is on FanDuel was like seven.

[B]

Seven and a half.

[C]

It is six and a half. Juiced pretty heavily to the under.

[B]

Well, they already have three losses, right?

[C]

Yeah, I know, but like, if to your point about, hey, they're supposed to like, put the foot down, I would think so too, but they haven't shown it yet.

[B]

This is the easiest game left on their schedule. Or do they have one of those, like, Sunbelt type teams before they play Gamecocks?

[A]

They should have Furman, I think, coming up a little bit later.

[C]

Yeah, they do.

[B]

So maybe the second easiest team remaining.

[A]

When you look at Clemson's longest winning streaks, though, the Clemson's longest active winning streaks in their game notes, it's like Furman, the Citadel seven straight against North Carolina.

[D]

You know, maybe this team figured it out on their buy. They're going to come back and they're going to be the Clemson we all expected. At least Danny and Chip expected.

[A]

Yeah, we'll see. Yeah, nothing, nothing on that for me. I've just got one left. What's. What's everybody else you fired through your.

[D]

Card all that much? I've got five left.

[A]

All right.

[D]

I'm gonna go with Kentucky plus 20 and a half against Georgia. Georgia has not covered a spread yet this year. Georgia is, I think, slightly overrated in A lot of power ratings matchup wise. I mean we've seen these two play really ugly close games before. We just see how Georgia typically approaches these non headliner games. They're. They're just looking to get out of there with the win. And also Kentucky plays a ton of zone defense and if you look at the splits for Gunner Stockton when he's facing zone versus when he's facing man, pretty bleak, pretty stark difference in his performance. I don't think he's going to have a great game and I think that'll affect the Georgia offense as a whole. So yeah, I think it'll be lower scoring and ugly. Ish. So give me the Wildcats plus 20 and a half.

[B]

Do you know who leads the country in the number of attempts of more than 20 yards in the air? Fast paced team, you know, because they get a lot of attempts off.

[A]

Is it Calzada?

[B]

It's Kentucky.

[A]

Yeah. Or whoever. Whoever is playing. Yeah. Well, bud, you know what happens when you're in third and 18. You got to throw it 20 plus yards down the field.

[B]

Seriously.

[C]

I'll go. I have a play in that game too. I'll take the O under for the game. Under 48 and a half like that.

[A]

Close. Yeah.

[C]

Lower starting game. It's a noon kick. They're after emotional loss. Their defense will be fine. I just. And George's offense really hasn't had many games where they just put up a ton of points yet. So I just think it'll be lower scoring.

[B]

You don't think Kirby's gonna hit him with one of those like I've been wanting to put the pads on myself since Tuesday type speeches for this?

[C]

He might. Then they could break out for 40 and then it's 423 and we're still safe.

[A]

This is just gonna happen. All right. College football, right? College football. Right now you're just gonna see it.

[B]

Something else you should see is your dentist regularly. All right. It's been impossible for me to get a read on this year. Two good games after squeaking out wins versus Kentucky and Arkansas. I'm starting to buy in. But that is dangerous territory for me. Fortunately, they have a buy this week so my cold streak betting on them can take a break. Instead I will turn my attention to the Vanderbilt Commodores where I have had much better luck. I'm very excited for this game. And while I'm sure Bama wants revenge, they are fresh off a tough away game at Georgia. Bama scored exactly zero points in the second half for cga. Ask me how I know. Did Kirby give Clark a nice blueprint? I'm dying to pick the doors here but instead I'm going to go with an angle. I feel a little more confident. I'm taking the colgate Paul Molive two for one special here. Vandy team total over 21 and a half game. Total over 55 and a half.

[A]

If that's what you've got, why don't you take plus the 10 and a half. Well, I mean unless. Because.

[B]

Because 45, 28 gets you beat.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

In his. I mean he is right. In games he's picked with Vandy he is 2 and 1.

[A]

Okay.

[D]

He is 0 and 6 and then he came with.

[B]

I don't know that Vandy's past defense is a weakness. I do know they have not faced anybody who's competent throwing the football so far. Like remember Sellers missed all but many through seven passes.

[A]

We'll say DK, how many you got left?

[C]

I got one more. I got another. Under Wisconsin at Michigan under 43 and a half was last I saw it. I don't know where it is currently. That was earlier this morning. Wisconsin. I don't think they're going to put up much of a fight. Really worried about Luke Fickle. Michigan's defense is legit. I think Michigan will run the football. It's kind of what they want to work on. It's what they are. It's who they are. I think this is pretty much controlled game for Michigan. So I'm going to say under an already low total lock agreement, baby.

[A]

All.

[D]

That stuff applies to me as well. And the other thing I have noticed is I don't know what Billy Edwards's situation is yet for this game. I mean he started their last game, did not finish it. Luke Fickle said that maybe they let him. You know he put a little too much trust in him saying he was ready. Maybe that was his. Blah, blah, blah. Either way, I feel like Wisconsin is slowing things down on offense. Whether it's Edwards or whether it's Neil in there. They are. They are looking to get these games over with quick and I think that's going to play here. So under.

[B]

I think o' Brien got first team reps.

[D]

Okay.

[B]

So yeah, so that.

[D]

That makes me even more confident because they are really just. They are bleeding that clock. They're handed the ball off.

[A]

You mean o'. Neill.

[B]

Oh, yeah, sorry o'.

[D]

Neill.

[A]

Yes, the Danny o' Brien flashbacks. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, buddy.

[B]

Can we play an over in a weather game? I think so.

[A]

There's an there are plenty of arguments for that.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, this has moved a lot. I do think that Charles and Raiola can, can still move the football even in the weather. Give me over 48 in Lincoln. I mean this, this opened what, 55 and a half. I just think that's a little bit too much of a move. I'll play the over 48.

[A]

I mean turnover is also right there to be able to set up short fields, you know.

[B]

Yeah, I like that.

[A]

That was one of those just on matchup I was like, huh, Michigan State, Nebraska seems like an over, but so I see where your head's at right there.

[B]

I also don't think Michigan State's D line is the type of D line that's going to give this Nebraska offensive line problems.

[A]

They can't expose the issues that we.

[B]

Saw against Michigan and Nebraska's D line doesn't give anyone problems. So I think like we'll have some clean pockets here.

[A]

It's good for Aiden Chiles, you know, play those video games. All right, last one.

[B]

40 to 50 mile an hour winds by the way then I don't like this but what I was seeing, it was mid-20s. I'm sure we'll have some gusts.

[D]

I'm sure there'll be gusts. Yes.

[A]

Yeah. I mean does that at least call for. Yeah, it's gon be windy in Lincoln. Last one for me until you hit sprinkles. I, I, I'm worried that, you know, like I'm gonna hear a, a full readout of an injury report right now that someone's gonna throw this in my face. But Texas Tech -10 and a half sound seems too small.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Are you gonna lock that up too? Yeah, yeah.

[B]

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong because is.

[A]

It in 11 and a half and it moved down to 10 and a half and you know, who knows, maybe somebo but I'm just not I think Texas Tech is a good football team like capital G good football team and Houston play played around and nearly got beat by Oregon State. They're coming back from Corvallis. Texas Tech coming out of a week off. Connor Wegman looks great when he has time and I just don't think he's going to have time against these Texas Tech edge rushers. I like Texas Tech to win this by two touchdowns.

[B]

I agree.

[D]

I've got three plays left. I'll go through them pretty quickly here. I'm not convinced that Texas A and M's defense is good just because they stopped Auburn. I think Everybody stops Auburn. And I think 14 and a half points is a little too much against Mississippi State because their offense has looked much more competent. And we saw them last week against Tennessee. They were able to move the ball. I think they will be able to move the ball against the Aggies. So give me Mississippi State play plus 14 and a half like that. Another high scoring game. We talked about it like, I'm never comfortable for Cannon Week because these games get stupid, but they also get high scoring. Remember what happened last, last season when Purdue and Illinois played? Illinois's defense didn't exactly like, they did a good job of slowing down usc. They did a better job than anybody else has to this point, but they didn't really stop them very much. They just slowed them down. So give me illinois, Purdue over 55 and a half. And then finally, I mean, this is, this is a check of your pride right here. This is. Are you a Big Ten program or not?

[A]

Oh, yeah, on the lake.

[D]

We're going to the lakefront. Lake Michigan. Shannon or Larry and Shannon Martin or Sharon, I don't know, whatever. The Martin family Stadium, the practice facility that's now playing its home for Northwestern football. The Northwestern Wildcats, a Big Ten football program, are ten and a half point home favorites to Ulm.

[B]

What are you using for home field advantage during that ball game?

[D]

I don't need home field advantage. I need a pride check. I need to. I need a cup check for your home.

[A]

I need you to be a Big Ten football team.

[D]

I'm going to smack you in the groin and there better be something there because I you, a ten and a half point spread against Ulm. I a team that lost by 73 to Alabama. I am not saying Northwestern is Alabama, but for the love of God, if that revenue sharing's coming, how much of.

[A]

It do you want?

[D]

How much of that private equity money do you want?

[B]

Northwestern?

[D]

Because I'm telling you right now, if.

[A]

You don't cover ten and a half.

[D]

Against Ulm, you ain't getting a damn dime from anybody.

[B]

Oh, Tom. So you're gonna hate me in a minute.

[D]

Oh, no.

[C]

Boy, I got one more. I got one more. MacKenzie's like, how old is she? Like 17? She's too young to have noticed some.

[A]

Of the history thrown out there for all of the legal reasons. She is not.

[C]

No, she is not.

[A]

She's older than me.

[B]

She's got to be at least, what, like 25?

[C]

Older than that. But when she hangs out at my house and hangs out with my daughters, I mean, it literally feels like, she's my daughter's age because she's not that much older than him, but she's braiding.

[A]

Hair and making tiktoks in the other room.

[C]

Yes. How have we not like she's too young to remember We've seen this story before, so this is a little bit agreement with her Moneyline Sprinkle. It was all, you know, hey, this is going to be a trendy one because Washington, ooh, they have to get on a plane and travel across the country. Have we not seen this story before? When Maryland gets out to a hot start, they beat some awful teams. It's like, ooh. In fact, I think there was a time they even got in the top 25 in Iowa. Came to town and just smoked them. I think Washington is really good team. I think they're better. I think this is Maryland's biggest test. Malik Washington has been awesome, but I think Washington's defense will be enough to get it done. And the mom Williams gets back on track. Give me the Huskies land six and a half.

[A]

Might have more on that in a little bit. All right, let's review all of our week. Six locks on the board. Here's what we got so far. Vanderbilt, Alabama Bud has Vanderbilt, Alabama over 55 Miami, Florida State over 53 ½ Air Force Navy under 52 ½ USF minus 27 ½ Kansas minus 3 ½ Michigan State Nebraska over 48 Texas Tech minus 10 ½ I'm on Vanderbilt, Alabama over 55 New Mexico plus 2 ½ San Diego State minus 6 the Texas Florida first half under 20 ½ Cincinnati minus 1 ½ UCLA team total under 12 ½ Texas Tech minus 10 ½ Florida State first quarter plus a half a point Notre Dame team total over 41 ½ Virginia plus 7 Danny's on Vanderbilt, Alabama over 55 ½ Miami Florida State over 53 ½ Alabama minus 10 ½ Sam Houston minus 1 ½ Iowa State plus 1 ½ Wisconsin Michigan under 43 ½ Virginia Louisville over 60 ½ Kentucky Georgia under 48 ½ Washington minus 6 ½ Times on Alabama team total over 33 ½ Miami Florida State under 55 ½ Air Force Navy under 52 ½ Notre Dame minus 20 ½ Kentucky plus 20 ½ Wisconsin Michigan under 43 ½ Mississippi State plus 14 ½ Illinois Purdue over 55 ½ and Northwestern minus 10 ½. And those were the locks. Sponsored by Cash App. As you heard me say at the top of the show, new Cash App users can use our code to get free money. Use our code cover three, send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 right into your account. Thank you, Cash App. And coming up on the other side, our Moneyline sprinkles for week six and more next. It's football season and you got to keep up with the action. Listen in to Pushing the Pile, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network with Mike Renner, Kyle Long, and now me, JP Acosta for smart analysis of everything between the lines. With four episodes a week, Sunday night recaps, film review, power tiers and weekly.

[C]

Previews, you will know Ball.

[A]

Stick with us until one team lists the Lombardi Download and follow Pushing the.

[C]

Pile on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere.

[A]

Where podcasts are found. If you love the NFL and NFL Draft, you'll love with the first Pick a part of CBS Sports Podcast Network, CBS Sports draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Titans GM Ran Carthon come to you twice a week to give the front office perspective on the biggest NFL storylines of the day. We also follow the NFL Draft closer than anyone, the weekly updates on our favorite college players, names to know based on your favorite NFL team's needs, and all the mock drafts and big boards you could want. If you love football, you're exactly where you're supposed to be. Download with the first pick and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. And now it is time for the Moneyline Sprinkles brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game, Bud. Sprinkling it again, mentioned it at the top of the show. He cashes Cal +205, Washington state +185. Last week, Chip bringing it home with Oregon, but you know, can't get it done with Mississippi State, Auburn and App State as well. Not doing it. Danny gets Alabama to the window at + 135. He was also on Mississippi State and Washington. And Tom gets Hawaii plus 210. But TCU, UCF and Kentucky not quite there. Bud remains the sprinkle king. Seven seven on sprinkles up 12.9 units, Danny up 2.2 units, Tom down 2.6 units and Chip at 4, 5 and 16 down 7.1 units.

[C]

All right, Bud, you know what this show has lacked?

[B]

Music. Play mine. Oh my God, it's time for Sicko mode.

[A]

Let's go.

[B]

I'm a little bit lower on Some of the teams in the bottom of the sun belt, if things go wrong they could be like Umassu Kanda. That's kind of like sicko mode of a sicko mode, man. These are like dogs left in the shelter for a while, man. Ugly. Let's do it. 324 Temple plus 205. 341 Wake plus 200 to Go Stadium. Yeah. 339 Boston College plus 200. Maybe get a couple cookies thrown your way by Pit. You know I do like the quarterback there. I think Bill O' Brien can kind of get some stuff done. 353 Ulm plus 380 to go and win on the lake. They don't pass the ball anyway. Any kind of win should not affect them. Just run it down their throat buds.

[A]

Trying to get Northwestern thrown out to open up a spot for Florida State.

[B]

That's right. Yeah. Yeah. At $5 a viewer they need all all the Ulm they can get, man. All right. And 401 Nevada plus 440 to go and take out Fresno. I just don't think like two defensive type teams there. Get them Wolf pack.

[D]

I can get you 220 on Wake by the way.

[B]

I'll take that.

[A]

Okay. Let's see. I guess Danny.

[C]

I am also on Boston College plus 200 to get it done against Pitt. Pit blue. They lost to West Virginia. They blew a 17 point lead last weekend. It's the ACC. The ACC is going to do ACC thing. So Boston College is going to win that game. I got one other said I'd back the Gators several times this year Ofer. But you know what? I have not taken them on a sprinkle. Give me the Gators to win the game outright. I do think they either get blown out and we're talking about Billy Napier getting fired or they win the game outright. Plus 215. The Gators pull off the upset.

[D]

It would be hilarious.

[A]

It would be hilarious. Yeah. It would be hilarious. All right, Tom.

[D]

I also agree with Bud on one. There's a reason I know I can get him Wake +220 because I am taking Wake +220. Virginia Tech favored by nearly a touchdown at home right now. What planet are we living on, ladies and gentlemen? Give me cal at home plus 130 going up against a Duke team that was on the road playing Syracuse last week and dog walked him. But they didn't have their starting quarterback and now they've got to fly for a second straight week all the way across the country. To face the Bears. I think Cal's been better at home. Gimme cal was 130. And then Danny likes Washington minus six and a half. Well, good for you, buddy, because we're on Maryland +210. You know, you talked about history. Maryland getting off to hot starts and falling apart. Here's a little history lesson for for you. Washington was off to a hot start last year until they traveled across the country to play a game on the east coast against Rutgers.

[B]

Oh, the Rutgers game. Oh, my God.

[D]

So give me Maryland plus 210.

[A]

Give me New Mexico State plus 120. We are watching all four quarters to see our Aggies come home. We are tweeting about that Cover 3 appearance on the halftime show and we are going to make sure New Mexico State brings it to the pay window. I already got Virginia plus seven. I was just going to leave it as a sprinkle, but it's there. So I've got Virginia, I think. Was it 205, 210 somewhere around there? Yeah.

[D]

I can get you two. 205.

[A]

Okay, 205. Maryland plus 210. I am also on as well. And just as a sprinkle, I. If Scott Frost can tap into some bounce house magic at night. Not a game that I felt comfortable handicapping, but vibes wise, could I see UCF Nabbing, Kansas? I. I don't think Kansas is a. Is above at least the potential of that. So what's my best number for the Knights?

[D]

165.

[B]

Get 170.

[D]

Oh, okay.

[A]

All right, let's throw that one on the board as well. And those were the moneyline sprinkles brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game. All right. Good show, gentlemen.

[B]

Is there one that you guys thought about throwing on sprinkles or locks?

[C]

Sprinkles, yeah.

[B]

Do they wear green?

[C]

No.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

They wear blue and they play on blue turf.

[A]

Oh.

[C]

Everybody thinks that boys like Notre Dame is just gonna run away with it. They're gonna pile it on here.

[B]

Marcus. Marcus Freeman is 1 in 6 against the spread against Group of 5 unranked with 2 straight up losses. I don't know if Boise actually fits that category. Like they're not really NIU type level, you know, but.

[A]

All right, gotta go to the airport. See you boys in Tallahassee. And you can follow him on Twitter at time. For now, you can follow him@bud Elliott3. You can follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson, come and see us. Tallahassee. We'll be at Madison Social. Show starts at 3pm but just come and hang out all afternoon, all night. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[D]

Thank you.

[C]

See you.

[A]

CBS Wednesdays I run to the chaos and Survivor is chaos. As a mother of a four year old, this is vacation this season. They're going back home. It's trial by the elements. Surprise. I'm on Survivor. That's how you do it. Survivor feels like a culmination of my entire life. Everything has led to this moment. Who will have what it takes? Survivor New CBS Wednesdays at 8, 7 Central and streaming on Paramount. Plus.