Cover 3 College Football Podcast — Week 7 LOCKS: Picks ATS for Indiana-Oregon, Texas-Oklahoma, Bama-Missouri

Date: October 9, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This “LOCKS” episode brings together the Cover 3 crew for a spirited, data-driven, and at times irreverent dive into the Week 7 college football slate. The quartet recap last week’s betting performances, debate the sharpest picks against the spread (ATS) for marquee games—including Indiana at Oregon, Texas-Oklahoma, and Alabama at Missouri—and offer plenty of banter, breakdowns, and notable betting trends. The show is an essential listen for college football bettors and fans who crave both sharp insight and entertainment.

Weekly Recap: Last Week’s Betting Records

[00:49–07:00]

• Bud Elliott: 4-3 week; now 30-31 for the season.
  • Wins: USF, Kansas, Michigan State over, Texas Tech.
  • Losses: Vandy/Bama over, Miami/FSU over, Air Force/Navy under.
  • “It’s better to have a winning week than a losing week!”
  • “Sam Houston one was dumb. That was a let’s have fun Thursday night.” [05:27, Bud]
• Chip Patterson: 4-6 week; now 36-31 for the season.
  • Highlights: San Diego State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech wins; tough breaks with Los Lobos and FSU missing first quarter cover.
  • “Almost doesn’t work here on the spreadsheet.” [04:16, Chip]
• Danny Kanell: 2-7 week; now 27-33 for the season.
  • “Kind of goes in line with what you’re doing, Chip... Arkansas’s defense sucks.” [52:57, Danny]
• Tom Fornelli: 5-4 week; now 32-22 for the season.
  • “Let Bud chase.” [06:47, Tom]
  • “Playing the computer, bro. It’s not fun anymore!” [02:20, Bud lampooning Tom’s record]

Thursday & Friday Locks: Weeknight Degeneracy

[10:31–20:54]

Thursday Night (Conference USA Flavor)

• Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston

  • Tom: Jacksonville State -7
    “I don’t get all the Sam Houston love... I’ll be the dummy, I’ll lay it with Jacksonville State.” [10:33, Tom]
  • Danny: Leans Sam Houston, but won’t lock; “Not locking it up... Gut play.” [11:15, Danny]
  • Chip: “This is a price of oil, price of gas... a bust-to-Houston special.” [11:56, Chip]

• Tulane vs. ECU

  • General agreement: Tulane is better but not confident enough to wager.

Friday Night

• Washington vs. Rutgers

  • Danny: Washington 1H -6.
    “I expect them to come out strong in the first half... and it also means I don’t have to stay up until midnight.” [14:57, Danny]
  • Tom: Huskies Team Total Over 34.5
    “Offensive coaches, they really want to get some points on the board.” [16:09, Tom]

• USF at North Texas

  • Chip: USF Team Total Over 34.5 — likes Bulls’ offense.
  • Bud: USF +1.5 — “We very rarely get ‘you ain’t played nobody yet’ at G5, but it applies here.” [17:35, Bud]
  • Danny: USF +1.5 & North Texas +1.5 (“middle”)
  • Group discussion: Highest total of the week, quarterbacks to watch, “Winner scores in the 40s.” [19:48, Danny]

Saturday Feature Games & Key Start Times

Ohio State at Illinois (Noon Slate)

[24:02–28:06]

• Bud: Over 49.5
  “I think there’s a couple ways to get this one.” [24:48, Bud]
• Chip: Ohio State -14
  “I’m fearing the back door, but this offense keeps impressing me.” [25:32, Chip]
• Ample back-and-forth about Illinois’ potential for an upset; Tom declines to fade his alma mater (Illinois).

Alabama at Missouri

[28:06–29:54]

• Danny & Bud: Over 51.5
  “I think Alabama will move the ball... both offenses are going to eat.” [28:34, Danny] “Bama’s D-line isn’t as good this year... I think Missouri can score.” [29:17, Tom]
• Bud: Alabama -3
  “Alabama is the best team in the SEC... I like the way Ty Simpson is playing.” [29:57, Bud]

Indiana @ Oregon

[31:03–36:29]

• Danny & Tom: Oregon -7 (Lock Agreement)
  • “Oregon is on a different level than everyone else.” [32:41, Danny]
• Bud: Over 55
  “Speed could be problematic, but I think Indiana’s offense can keep up.” [34:02, Bud]
• Chip: Indiana Team Total Over 23.5, Indiana 4th quarter +1.5
  • “Relentless. That’s one of the cornerstones of this Indiana program.” [35:57, Chip]

Texas vs. Oklahoma (Red River Shootout)

[36:35–41:06]

• Bud: Texas -1
  “Their defense is really good; if Mater plays, I don’t think he’s 100%.”
• Chip: Over 43.5
  “It ain’t called the Red River SNUB gun!” [40:09, Chip]
  • “Last year was under, but previous 9 were over this number.”

Night Games Highlights

Michigan @ USC

[41:12–43:40]

• General hesitation; no one locks, but consensus that it could be a breakout for Bryce Underwood (USC QB).
  • “The one result that would truly stun me is if Michigan wins big.” [42:47, Chip]
  • “If that happens... DEFCON 5 type of conversation about USC.” [43:05, Bud]

Arizona State @ Utah

[44:41–45:58]

• Bud: Over 47.5 — “Utah can block Arizona State... the offense is actually better than the defense this year.” [44:42, Bud]
• Danny: Arizona State +6 — “Big 12 classic, down to the wire, field goal or less.” [45:20, Danny]

“Card-Fillers” & Sicko Mode Specials

[48:37–75:00]

• San Diego State -7 (@ Nevada): Danny’s on it because coach Sean Lewis sent him a helmet!
  • “How the hell am I not going to take San Diego State?” [49:02, Danny]
• Tennessee 1st Quarter -3.5 (vs. Arkansas): Chip — “Tennessee first quarters are back!” [52:07, Chip]
• Tennessee Team Total Over 40.5: Tom — “Arkansas defense is pretty bad.” [52:57, Danny]
• FSU -10.5 vs. Pitt: Bud — “Biggest game of Mike Norvell’s career.” [55:27, Bud]
• FSU/Pitt 1H Under 29.5: Chip
• South Carolina/LSU Under 44.5: Bud
  • “South Carolina’s scored 42 on defense/special teams this year... I’m always scared to take an under in a SC game.” [60:08, Danny]
• Michigan State -7.5 vs. UCLA: Tom — “UCLA’s been celebrating all week. Michigan State will cover.” [61:10, Tom]
• Virginia Tech +14.5 @ Georgia Tech: Tom
  • “GT doesn’t play up against teams they’re better than.” [65:10, Tom]
• Iowa State Team Total Over 27 (vs. Colorado): Chip — “7th straight game for Colorado. Could be tough.” [66:04, Chip]
• Old Dominion 1H -7 (vs. Marshall): Bud
• Kent State Team Total Over 26 (vs. UMass): Bud’s “full sicko mode.” [69:22, Tom & Bud]
• FAU -4 vs. UAB: Tom

Sprinkles (Moneyline Dogs)

[78:53–83:40]

The group shares underdog moneyline picks (“sprinkles”):

• Bud: New Mexico +575, Oklahoma State +475, Temple +295, Purdue +273
• Tom: South Carolina +300, Arizona State +195, Illinois +530
  • (Eloquent “Juice Williams” story for Illinois nostalgia vs Ohio State)
• Danny: UCLA +255, Colorado +120, Wisconsin +145, Arizona State +195
• Chip: Auburn +160, Florida +245, Michigan +115, “Bye week” +195 over UNC (!)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Chip: “It’s a tough matchup. I’m fearing the back door, but this offense keeps impressing me.” [25:32, Ohio State -14]
• Tom: “It’s a Red River rivalry; it’s not called the Red River SNUB gun!” [40:09, Texas/Oklahoma]
• Danny: “Tennessee hasn't scored fewer than 41 points in a game yet this year, and Arkansas’s defense sucks.” [52:57, Tennessee team total]
• Bud: “Biggest game of Mike Norvell’s career. He has to come out [and win]. If not, it gets ugly in Tallahassee.” [55:27, FSU/Pitt]

Standings Update & Closing Thoughts

[85:00]

• Sprinkle King: Bud leads in overall units won on moneyline underdogs.
• Weekly Reminder: Locks sponsored by Cash App; play along and share your setups during Thursday and Friday night games.

Useful Timestamps

• Weekly Records Recap: [00:49–07:00]
• Thursday/Friday Locks: [10:31–20:54]
• Saturday Noon Block: [24:02–29:54]
• Marquee Afternoon/Night Games: [31:03–45:58]
• Sicko Mode/Deep Cuts: [68:03–76:45]
• Moneyline Sprinkles: [78:53–83:40]
• Final Recap & Banter: [84:56–End]

Conclusion

The Week 7 LOCKS episode delivers a rollicking, deeply detailed slate of ATS picks, team totals, and moneyline sprinkles across Thursday to Saturday. Each host’s unique personality and handicapping approach shines—whether it’s Chip’s relentless quarter bets, Tom’s Big Ten pride, Bud’s G5 sharpness, or Danny’s principled contrarianism. Listener takeaways: actionable bets, confidence levels, and plenty of wisecracking camaraderie.

For more: Follow the show at YouTube.com/cover3 and CBS Sports Podcast Network. Join the tailgate next week!