Cover 3 College Football Podcast: Week 8 LOCKS - Best Bets & ATS Picks (Oct. 16, 2025)

Episode Overview

In this deep-dive “Locks” episode, hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, and Bud Elliott explore Week 8’s loaded college football slate, making their best bets, against-the-spread (ATS) picks, and sharing candid reactions to last week’s results. Key show themes include reviewing betting performance, sharp analysis on high-profile matchups like USC-Notre Dame, Alabama-Tennessee, Ole Miss-Georgia, and introducing both banter and actionable insights for passionate college football fans and fellow bettors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap: Week 7 Betting Results

• Bud Elliott: 4-4 week. He felt unlucky on Old Dominion and still liked his Jacksonville State pick, but “Oregon, clearly the wrong side.” (03:46)
• Chip Patterson: 5-4 week. Highlighted big wins on South Florida team total (they “almost doubled that up”) and a thrilling Kansas first half cover. (04:28)
• Danny Kanell: 4-3 week. Won on USF, Ohio State/Illinois over, Texas -1. “I thought Florida State would be able to impose their will. That defense, most disappointing story of the season maybe so far.” (06:18)
• Tom Fornelli: 2-7 week. Only happy about San Diego State and NIU/EMU under. “Knew a losing week was going to eventually come so now we just got it behind us and keep going.” (07:32)

2. Thursday & Friday "Early Bird" Locks

[ECU vs. Tulsa] - Thursday Night

• Tom Fornelli: Locks ECU under 35.5 team total. “It’s a big number… it’s not easy to score 40 in college football nowadays, well for some teams.” (10:31)
• Danny & Chip: Pass, warning it’s a “big number both on the team total and spread.” (10:48)

[Miami vs. Louisville] - Friday Night

• Danny Kanell: Louisville team total UNDER 17.5: “Just don’t think they’re going to have a whole lot of fun… talked about their offensive line… pretty bad... now going up against Miami.” (11:31)
• Bud Elliott: Likes Miami -13.5. “Miller Moss could be in a world of hurt… I also think Miami’s offense will be able to score against Louisville’s defense.” (12:03)
• Tom & Chip: Pass on the spread (Tom: “I think this is like correctly priced”). Chip takes UNDER 50.5, expects Miami to wear down Louisville late. (13:17)
• Memorable Quote: “First half under goes against my handicap because I think Louisville’s best chance to score is early.” – Chip Patterson (13:17)

3. Friday Night Power 5 Action

[Nebraska at Minnesota]

• Tom Fornelli: Takes Minnesota +8.5, suggesting Nebraska’s a risky big fave on the road: “Is Nebraska reliable as more than a single-score favorite... in conference play? Maybe so.” (15:42–16:31)

[San Jose State at Utah State] – Live Betting Insight

• Bud Elliott: Good live-betting opportunity due to potential for market inefficiency in high-scoring, volatile games. (17:20)
• Chip: Promotes “Cover 3 Tailgate” halftime show. (17:51)

[North Carolina at Cal, Late Friday]

• Panel is wary of backing Cal as a hefty favorite or trusting UNC after a bye: “If you’re gonna make a play, I think you have to back Cal but... hard pass.” – Bud Elliott (19:31)

4. Saturday Marquee Matchups

[Vanderbilt vs. LSU]

• Tom Fornelli: “Lay the points with Vanderbilt over LSU – Anchor MF-ing Down!” (22:00)
• Chip Patterson: “Vibes are horrendous [for LSU]... the doors have it, this is their day.” (23:02)
• The Dentist Pick: Vandy 1st half -1.5, referencing their bye and red zone work. “Please give me Vandy minus 1.5 in the first half.” (23:50)

[Ohio State at Wisconsin]

• Chip Patterson: Lays -25.5 with OSU, thinks the Buckeyes will “still build the work they need to get done should include covering this spread.” (27:48)
• Danny Kanell: Considers Wisc team total under 7.5 but finds it too juiced. Warns to factor in Luke Fickell's OSU ties. (27:12–27:48)
• Great Exchange:
  • “I think there are ways to cover 25.5 without being disrespectful.” (Chip, 27:48)
  • “That’s the monster... the monster just comes in. We're not worried about that. We're worried about us. Buckeyes.” (Chip, 29:03)

[Georgia vs. Ole Miss]

• Danny & Chip: Both on Ole Miss 1H +4.5 (29:41)
  • “Georgia has been slow in the first half all season long…” – Danny (29:53)
  • “Download that Hard Rock app... just little flex account.” – Chip (31:07)
• The Dentist: Ole Miss 1H team total over 10.5 and Georgia -2.5 in the 3rd quarter. (31:51–32:36)
• Bud: Lays -7.5 with Georgia. (32:54)
  • “I do think Georgia is the better football team… ultimately I think Georgia gets it done by more than 7.5.” (32:54)

[Alabama vs. Tennessee] (Third Saturday in October)

• Bud Elliott: Bama -8, Bama/Tennessee OVER 58.5 (fights Tom & Danny). “Ty Simpson is comfortable in the face of pressure... Tennessee’s quarterback is kind of coming back to earth... Bama wins comfortably in a higher scoring game.” (38:23–39:27)
• Tom Fornelli: Tennessee +9, “Alabama’s probably the best team in the SEC, but I don’t think they’re the best team by a mile... nine feels big.” (35:47)
• Danny Kanell: UNDER 59.5, expects physical, lower scoring game. “This is like a 27-24 kind of game.” (36:59)

[Notre Dame vs. USC]

• No Locks: Panel splits on total and side.
  • Chip: Leans under, “Grab on and hold” under 61.5 (40:50)
  • Danny: “Never worried about wet balls.” (41:04)
  • Tom: Cautions on USC’s weather adjustments, “If it’s not as windy, I think I love over but not on a Thursday.” (41:43)
  • “These are two good football teams...” – Chip (42:14)

[Holy War: Utah at BYU]

• Bud Elliott: Utah -3, cites BYU’s struggle with mobile QBs. (43:12)
• Chip Patterson: Fights back with BYU +3.5, expects ugliness & home field edge. (43:36, 43:40)
• Bud: Also under 49.5, “I don’t think either loves their QB throwing... four out of the last six years it’s gone under this number—it’s a lower scoring game.” (45:43)

5. Best of the Rest: Undercard and Sicko Mode

• Georgia Tech +1.5 at Duke (Danny) vs. Duke -1.5 (Chip).
  • “Haynes King is going to will this Georgia Tech team to win.” – Danny (49:24)
  • “Not trying to say this is a daunting home field, but... Duke’s offense will create a chaotic situation.” – Chip (51:04)
• Temple -11 at Charlotte (Bud): “Temple’s a good football team, should have beaten Navy.” (52:57)
• North Texas -3.5 vs. UTSA (Bud): “I don’t think UTSA has the same caliber of athlete USF did to embarrass North Texas.” (53:38)
• Georgia Southern -6.5 vs. Georgia State (Tom): “Georgia Southern’s better than its record tells you... don’t trust TJ Finley on the road.” (55:57)
• Oklahoma -5.5 at South Carolina (Bud), fought by Danny on the under 43.5 and Tom with SCar +5.5. Wild stat: “Oklahoma has not scored more than two offensive touchdowns against an SEC defense in a single game [since joining the league].” (59:22)

Sicko Mode

• Stanford-Florida State, Temple-Charlotte, North Texas-UTSA: Bud and Tom riff on ugly matchups and their Miami and Sun Belt “sicko” picks. (52:27–54:55)

6. Quick-Hit Lockboard Highlights

A few notable team totals:

• Wyoming o26.5 (Danny): “Team total over 26.5 against Air Force’s JV defense.” (63:58)
• ASU UNDER 21.5 team total (Danny & Chip) vs. Texas Tech. (70:57, 72:16)
• FAU/USF UNDER 74.5 (Chip): “73.5 is preposterous… they don’t want to play another 80-point game before the Memphis game.” (67:13)
• Florida -8.5 vs. Miss State (Danny): “Wouldn’t it be hilarious if they blow them out and then fire Napier anyway?” (65:18)

7. Moneyline Sprinkles Segment (Starting ~77:00)

“Sprinkle” segment: Hosts each give several high-value underdog ML shots.

• Danny: Arkansas (+265), BYU (+?), South Carolina (+?), Army (+290)
• Bud: EMU (+425), Mississippi State (+310), Stanford (+705)
• Tom: South Carolina, Arkansas, BYU (all mirror Danny), plus Purdue (+145), Kentucky (+400), Auburn (+115)
• Chip: Maryland (+145), Penn State (+130), Washington (+195), UConn (+104), Mississippi State (+310)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tom Fornelli (13:17): “First half under goes against my handicap because I think Louisville’s best chance to score is early.”
• Danny Kanell (11:31): “Just don’t think [Louisville] is going to have a whole lot of fun in this game… their offensive line seems pretty bad.”
• Chip Patterson (27:48): “There are ways to cover 25.5 without being disrespectful.”
• Bud Elliott (32:54): On Georgia-Ole Miss, “Ultimately I think Georgia gets it done by more than 7.5.”
• Dentist’s Locks: Consistent running joke—listener/subscriber “the dentist” sends record picks with elaborate rationales.
• Themed Parlay Bit (31:19): “Ole Miss first half, Georgia 3rd quarter. Slow starting Dawgs, Kirby halftime adjustments!” – Tom

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:16 — Episode “real” intro begins
• 03:46 — Last week’s betting recap (Bud)
• 10:31 — Thursday Night Locks (ECU/Tulsa)
• 11:31 — Friday Night: Miami-Louisville
• 15:42 — Friday, Nebraska-Minnesota
• 22:00 — Vanderbilt-LSU best bets
• 27:12 — Ohio State-Wisconsin breakdown
• 29:41 — Georgia-Ole Miss, 1st half and 3rd quarter strategy
• 35:47 — Alabama-Tennessee: Side/total debate
• 40:50 — Notre Dame-USC: Weather worries
• 43:12 — Utah-BYU (Holy War)
• ~49:24 — Undercard picks (Georgia Tech-Duke)
• 52:27 — Sicko Mode picks
• 55:04 — Extra undercard Sun Belt picks
• 63:58 — Air Force defensive struggles/Wyoming team total
• 67:13 — USF-FAU total rant
• 77:00 — Moneyline Sprinkles

Final Notes

• Ad Avoidance: All content here is focused on substantive betting talk, skipping all ad reads and promotions.
• Listener Involvement: Reference to “the dentist” and live chat picks underscores the participatory vibe of the Cover 3 tailgate, making listeners feel like part of the show.
• Tone & Language: The crew blends sharp analysis with humor, empathy for bettors, and inside jokes, making this a uniquely engaging betting podcast for hardcore college football fans.

To follow along live or for more picks, head to the Cover 3 YouTube stream Fridays or catch the pod wherever you listen.

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