← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
A
All right, Crypt Nation fam. Let's pause for one second and talk about an important issue going on right now and that's sim swap attacks. Sim swap attacks are becoming a serious threat, especially in crypto. If someone gets control of your phone number, they can access your bank accounts, your exchanges, emails and even your private messages. That's why the Crypto 101 podcast is partnered with Afani. It's America's most secure mobile service, offering a guaranteed protection against sim swaps with added privacy. Since launching, not one single Affani user has ever been SIM swapped. And and for some reason, if it ever does happen, you're backed by up to 5 million in insurance against financial losses. This is literally why we chose to partner with them. It is. Our favorite thing about Afani is the insurance policy of up to $5 million if it does happen to you. Afani runs on either AT&T or the Verizon network and you get to choose which one. There are no contracts and it is super easy and seamless to sign up. You also get a 60 day money back guarantee so there's zero risk in trying it out. Or right now for our listeners, you get $99 off when you sign up at a funny.com crypto 101. That's a funny.com crypto 101 or check the show notes below for a link. These days your phone number is probably more valuable than your Social Security number, so make sure it's protected with a funny. All right everybody, welcome back to, to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And wow, what a Friday. We have such a lineup for you even before the breaking news that I'm going to tell you about in a second. We have a full list of bitcoin cycle chop tar charts. We've got Google Trends, Fear and Greed index and a special chart on the global M2 money supply. The secret around M2 money supply, the history of it that you're going to want to stick around for. But Brendan, breaking news in the last hour. President Trump coming out being very, very harsh on China and one of the longest tweets we've ever seen on the history of Twitter slash X and it is causing quite a stir in the markets. Markets are read across the board. Bitcoin altcoins, S&P 500, NASDAQ. But you are in the right spot because we're going to break it all down for you, tell you how to pierce through, look through this noise, digest it. We're going to do technical analysis, trading, fundamentals, the whole nine. We've got about 45 minutes to an hour with you guys right now, and it is going to be a jam packed episode. So we appreciate you joining us on a Friday. Brendan, welcome. It's the traveling rundown. Vegas last week, Burbank this week. Now I'm in Northern California on the cliffs of Pismo Beach. But very, very, very monumental. This will be the last podcast we ever make with each other without meeting one another. We are going to be together. We're going to be together Monday in San Diego. So excited to hang out with you for a couple days. How are you, my friend?
- [02:47]
B
Dude, I'm doing great. You're right. You know, we're on the traveling schedule right now. We got a lot going on and can you hear me all right? Am I coming?
- [02:56]
A
Sound great? You sound good?
- [02:58]
B
Perfect, perfect. We're having some audio, slight audio disconnects on my end before this, so excuse that, but yeah, man, I'm stoked I'm going to be able to meet Thibaut for the first time in person. Obviously we work together, you know, every week for the last couple of years and we're both going out to San Diego and doing some stuff out there. But we're. It comes to the crypto market here and really any market, I mean, just watching it today has been fascinating. Really, really heavy selling pressure coming off of that, that tweet. And basically what it was, was it came out and you're right, I mean, it was low. That was the first thing I noticed. I was like, wow, this is probably like one of the longest tweets I've seen, just in general, but especially from him. And it had to do with tariffs, it had to do with China, trade, war, all that stuff. Looks like pressure's escalating. And we all know, and the reason why this affects crypto is because we all know what happened during the first quarter of this year. Right? Kind of going from February, March, April. The markets were just in free fall from the tariff news. And what that does is that makes investors a little bit more risk off. They want to scale away from risk. They want to go to safety. The markets have obviously been ripping for a while now. If you look from those tariff lows on a lot of these assets, I know that bitcoin specifically was up about 70%. When I was looking at NASDAQ, I think that that thing was up about 50%. And then when looking at gold, since those kind of tariff flows in that area as well, you know, that was up about 35%. And so whether you look at metals equities or crypto, like everything was up with crypto leading the way by about 20% over Nasdaq and you know, everything was pretty high. And so now we're starting to get this fear of like, oh, are tariffs going to escalate again? Is a trade war going to escalate again? Is there's going to be something happening, right? There's just fear in the air. And that's really what this is. And as a lot of people like to call it, fud, right? Fear, uncertainty and doubt. They fear the tariffs, they fear escalations that are uncertain about what's going to happen next. They're doubtful about the markets, especially after such a big move. And that's what FUD stands for, is for a situation just like this one. So when we have it on the screen right here, you can kind of go towards like the back quarter of it, the back half of it, and that's really where they talk about it. And it just seems like tensions are escalating, which is causing this kind of fear, uncertainty and doubt. And it's causing crypto to just sell off a little bit. And again, not just crypto, really everything to really just kind of sell off as investors across the board are looking to just de risk. So the real big kind of question here is, you know, does it get worse and does it lead into another trade war crash or tariff crash like we saw over course of like February, March and April? And I don't think it gets that bad. That's my opinion. I don't think it gets to that same level of like, of a sell off where we go almost 30% to the downside and, or I guess it was over 30% for Bitcoin. It was, I think it was probably 30% for the indices and for bitcoin, looking back at that, it was about a 40% sell off. So, you know, do we have another 30 or. Yeah, about 30 to 40% to the downside. I don't think so. I don't think we see about 30 to 40% to the downside. And I'm loving the picture that you have on the screen right now, by the way. By the way, Thibaut, if you're not a part of our YouTube channel, you gotta be a part. You know, if you're coming in from audible, from Spotify, from Apple podcasts, you need to go over to our YouTube side. That's where we have all the info, all the Graphics. All the articles and charts and everything else that we reference on the screen. And for those of you who can't see it, Tibos put a picture on this, on the screen of Trump boxing China's President Xi in front of their, each like respective flags and they got the gloves on.
- [06:56]
A
Yeah, it's, it's a, it's a red morning. It's, you know, red days are never super fun unless you got a bag of cash, you're ready to buy the dip. I think the hot, the hot headline. I agree with you. I'm not too worried about this. I think again, we don't try to dive too much into the politics side of what's going on politically and how you feel about it. It's just the facts of the facts. There's something going on on the world scale, the macro scale, and the markets are being affected by it. My take personally is I'm, I'm thinking this is part of the process. If we've learned anything about the, you know, the first eight months here of this administration and how they operate and just the world in general, it's just been so crazy recently how this has just been like one big reality show. And a lot of times, you know, I, I think the older generation is much used to this type of stuff being dealt with behind closed doors and phone calls and meetings. And, you know, until it really bubbled over, that's when there were press conferences and announcements and now just, you know, the, the digestion of information. So different. And with Twitter and X and especially with this administration and how they lean into social media, it's done in open air and you can hate it, you can like it, it doesn't matter. It's what's going on and you need to, you know, understand it, educate yourself on it and digest it and react to it. So that's what we're doing here. But I'm not worried about it. This just feels like another episode in the reality show tv, you know, administration that we have. And it is, it kind of is what it is. It kind of tees up a little two week window here. They were supposed to meet in, there's something going on in Seoul, South Korea. President Xi was going to be there. Donald Trump was supposed to be there. They're supposed to have a meeting. It's always big when, when the leaders of the US and China get together together. So that was scheduled to happen. And now in, in that infamous long tweet, it was hinted that maybe, I think he said he's like, I Don't know if I need to go to, you know, I don't know if I need to go to South Korea now. So that'll be the talk. Excuse me, That'll be the talk and the tail of the tape for the next two weeks. We will cover it for you. But more importantly, how is this affecting markets? Brendan, I'm gonna, I'm gonna handle hand it off to you on this Friday to do some charting. Obviously it's a little bit more of a shake up compared to what we were tracking earlier this week due to the news. But let us see what you're seeing and if anybody's interested, Brendan does have a new cohort opening up this week. So the first link below, if you're interested in the technical analysis portion of what you're about to see. If Brendan's charts and his guidance speak to you and you want to get more educated on it, check that first link below. The, the training course with Brendan is open. You're going to get the six week tutorial to learn all the knowledge that he has plus two live trading systems with him like this per week. But they're an hour each and you can comment and talk to him and, and kind of learn with him as you go through the course. So Brendan, show us what you got.
- [09:50]
B
Yeah, we'd love to see everyone there. I mean, this is what we're seeing on bitcoin up here. We have been chopping around in kind of this sideways range. I call this the barcode where we're going up and down and up and down and up and down. And that's really what we've been doing for the past couple of months. And you know, we've been breaking out slightly higher to the, to the upside and then again slightly higher than the prior time. But nothing too convincing, right? Nothing too crazy. And when we're seeing kind of these failed breakouts, this was getting me again, I was really hoping for a breakout. One of the big ones I was looking at is Ethereum and this is something I got some stopped out of. I had a nice little trade running in profit, but I started to see the breakdown here and this fourth rejection in the last couple of months and you know, kind of just approaching this with a little bit of caution. So I think when we're looking at the bigger picture, the bigger picture is still really fine, right? You kind of zoom out and you see the bigger picture and this looks completely fine. In fact, you barely notice a move like this when you do zoom out. And the big thing that I still really like about bitcoin is that we're coming back and we have used this area that was previously the all time high. And we kind of come up here and we've rejected and we've come up here and we've rejected and we came up here and rejected and rejected and rejected until we eventually broke through. And ever since then we've been using this prior all time high resistance level as a newfound support zone right over in here. And we've been bouncing off of this really, really well. So to the downside here, you know there's a couple of big support levels. Number one, we're approaching 117k. That is where I have a support line. In fact, you can already see I have a little white line drawn in here. But I think that this is an area that makes sense as some sort of a support. It is a prior high from over here in bitcoin here and also in here. And as we come back to these levels, we also have the 20 day moving average. Now if we start cracking down below these prior highs, below these local resistance levels, then I think 110k is going to be a rather large support. And that's where the big support starts, starts kicking in. You have the prior all time highs here. You have higher lows that we've been seeing around this area as well. You have the anchored, the anchored vwap down here, the 200 day moving average down here, prior consolidation like you just have a ton around 110k, around to 100k. So we have this really large chunk of support down in here where I would be very confident that bitcoin could find some, some buying pressure. I think the only thing that could derail October is some sort of Black Swan event, right? If we get some massive escalation like we saw at the very start of the year. I think outside of some Black Swan event like that, I really don't think anything can derail October and bitcoin's next leg higher. It would take some really, really big outside event to create this kind of downside catalyst. So the technicals over here, to me they still look good. I know everyone freaks out because it's been a pretty big. But bitcoin's only down about 3% today. It's down a couple more percent from the all time highs. Guys, Bitcoin 6% away from all time highs or it's fallen 6% off of the all time highs. Which means that bitcoin only needs to move about 7% to get back to A new all time high. We've done 7% candles more days than I can count, like actually. And so when we're looking at this again, it's easy to freak out in the moment and think the world's ending. We're really not down that much now. I'm not going to say again, this can't get worse, but we're coming right back to a huge critical support level around 17K. Let's keep an eye on this. If not, guess what, there's a lot more support levels below us like we were just talking about. And the same thing kind of goes over here for Ethereum as well, where this is coming back to its primary support level. So its primary support kicks in at around 4100 on the high end and 3, 800 on the low end. And this is where the big, big support level is for ETH over in here. So when I'm at this, obviously we know that this all time high resistance level is strong. We've rejected it four separate times. But we also know that we have had buyers down here from 4100 to 3800. And this is an area that used to be a series of prior highs as well because we've come up here and seen some big resistance points. So you know, we've rejected this area from 38 to 4,104 separate times over the course of the last year to two. And now we know that this should be a support range. And even under this, if we start breaking down then I think afterwards you could make an argument that there's a maybe a 3K Ethereum, 3 1-2-K Ethereum, but that still looks like it's pretty far away. So immediate support for this is going to be 4,100, then 3,800. And I would really like to see the bounce happen kind of inside that target range which we're just starting to peek our head into here. Now when it comes to altcoins T Valley, these are where we're kind of seeing some more of the selling pressure. Right? Bitcoin dominance is back on the rise, which is something that I've noticed. It's peaking up to the highest point that we've seen since August of this year. So about a month or two ago. And altcoins are what's really getting hammered again. Bitcoin down 3%. You're seeing the average altcoin down around 5 to 6%, so almost double that. And you can see that over here with Solana and Eth, you know, Eth being down 6% and Solana being down just about 5%. And we're coming back to some of these prior lows. I think the number one thing to watch out for moving forward is can these altcoins and bitcoin, can they form higher lows above where we bottom that last time? And so long as we see that it paints and it actually raises the likelihood of crypto continuing to the upside. Because we've seen this happen a lot where, especially on Solana, where it comes down, rises up, higher low, rises up, higher low, rises up, higher low, rises up, higher low, rises up. So long as it comes in here and it forms another higher swing low, which means that it is above where it bottomed out last time. So long as it does that, it actually puts itself in a really good spot. And that's what I would like to see over here on Solana. So, okay, can we come down, form a higher low and move back to the upside? I think that that raises the likelihood of an upside breakout and it makes the whole chart just look better. And for a lot of the altcoins, like, that's the big thing to watch out for here. You know, you can kind of see it happening on sui. Can it hold this trend of higher lows? We've been watching it happen over here on bnb, which has just been crushing it for the most part. Can this thing kind of form some sort of higher low around the moving averages? We've been watching AAVE, which recently bounced off the 200 day moving average coming down here. Can we form the higher low? We've been seeing this with a bunch of other charts. You know, I know pumps one that I'm watching. It's been very, very volatile lately. You know, you could say the same thing for like Hyper Liquid or Tron or Mantle or a lot of these cryptos that have been running really, really well. And so as we come back to the downside over here, I think all eyes are kind of on this and saying, can the crypto market, specifically these altcoins, can they hold higher lows like we're seeing across the board? And if not, then, you know, maybe we do get a little bit more downside. But again, I, I don't really see us derailing from this bigger picture, which remains to be bullish until it's not. And I truly do believe, like the only thing that kind of derails us from the bull market that we're in is another one of those, like out of left field black swan event like Catalyst that Sends things back to the downside. But, yeah, what do you think before we.
- [17:36]
A
I think we got to stay out of the chat. Leave the charts up here. Brennan, we got a couple questions from the audience we'll bring in, but say hi to everybody. East coast lobsters here. Fitz is here. Josh Clark's here. Vlad is here. Deborah's always here. Cipher. That's a new one. Welcome, Cipher. I haven't seen you in the chat before. And absolute legend Brian McNutt. He is in the chat. He's very active. Let's lead with him. Brian McNutt, head of Momentum Money Makers, is looking, looking for some thoughts on Aster from his T Ray TA guru.
- [18:07]
B
Well, let's take a look at it, man. Let me get one sec. Aster is an interesting. Oops, I looked at the wrong one. Aster has been an interesting one. I've been following this. They're essentially like a competitor to Hyper Liquid for anyone who's not as familiar, except they're on the Binance Smart chain, so they're kind of the part of the BNB ecosystem. What I've seen over here with Aster is even though we don't have a ton of price action, what we have seen so far is that they've had a really nice initial rally up, then they kind of came back down to around a dollar and fifty cents, then back up to a lower high, then back down to the same low, and they're honestly catching a little bit of a bid. Today they hit a low of day at around A dollar and 49 cents. They've rallied about 12% back to the upside. And so the thing that I've noticed is that there's been a lot of buyers around a dollar and fifty cents. It's clear that this is a pretty big support wall because you saw the initial rally kind of come through this point. We came back here, caught another huge bid, came back here again. And despite the whole crypto market, despite every market being deep in the red today, this thing's rallied 12% off of its lows back to break even. So that, to me helps kind of create this argument for Aster that it has a lot of buying pressure and people are very comfortable buying this thing around a dollar and fifty cents. And even as we're watching it now, you can kind of see it flipping green on the day. Well, again, everything else is deep in the red. So what I would say with Aster is, you know, really big support walls and buy walls around a dollar and fifty cents. If this rallies anywhere off of here it has made lower highs. So I wouldn't necessarily expect it to break that right away. But even if it rallies off of a lower high here, I think we could see this thing rally back up to maybe 2 bucks, 2 bucks and 10 cents somewhere around there. And I think that that's a pretty conservative estimate where we're saying, hey, if we rally off of here and we go back to the upside and we even see a lower swing high, we're not even talking about a breakout. I think around a two dollar and anywhere from two bucks to $2.10 is a pretty reasonable price to see this kind of come back up towards. My only fear with Aster is we have another analyst on the team named Rohit and he was saying that some of those defi companies that like record statistics like defi llama and stuff, some of them have stopped reporting on Aster because they had been doing mostly wash trading and people had been wash trading because they want to take part in an airdrop that's coming up. And so people were just wash trading their money back and forth to kind of increase the likelihood of their airdrop. And that's something that he was telling me yesterday, which is interesting. So maybe the numbers aren't as high as people thought they were and maybe the numbers aren't as good as they might have looked because people are just trying to partake in this airdrop. So a lot of money is just being recycled over and over again. Something to probably think about. It's something that didn't even come to my mind. I didn't even know about the airdrop. I just knew about the success and how people were using it and how it competes with hyper liquid. So that was something that got put on the my radar and I felt like I could share. But when it comes to the chart itself, I mean, listen, we see buyers anywhere around a buck fifty. I would say this is kind of the line in sand until it isn't. And yeah, that's what I'd see. In the meantime.
- [21:44]
A
Oh, great breakdown. We got one more from, from Deborah. I don't know this one. Ticker symbol sd.
- [21:51]
B
Oh.
- [21:54]
A
Stator. I looked it up. Sta. I mean this is a low, low market cap, folks. 25 million dollar market cap. She's, she's rolling around with Brian and Joe in the trenches, momentum, moneymaker style. So yeah, give, give Deborah a little thought here. But folks, this is a very, very low market cap project. So you know, no, no personal financial advice from us here. But I don't know, Deborah's always in the chat, so we gotta send her some love. Looks like she, she might be holding the bottom here.
- [22:24]
B
Yeah. You know, what I would say is with projects of this size, I typically don't do TA on them because the lower that something's market cap is, the rest the less reliable and consistent technical analysis usually is. But nonetheless, you know, obviously it had this just gigantic move to the downside back in 2022, and you can see it kind of never recovered from that. So if we're kind of just focusing in on what's happened since then, you can see that it has had some rallies, you know, give or take. I guess you could say that there's kind of two zones to look at here. To the upside, around a dollar and seventy cents. And then you could say that there's even another, a little bit of another zone kind of down in here around a dollar and forty cents. Dollar ish. Yeah, around a dollar and forty cents. And to the downside, it's had a decent little support down here, around 30 cents. So when we look at these zones, we've kind of seen it go from around 30 cents up to one of these two take profit zones at either a dollar and 40 or $1.80. And it's kind of just gone back and forth and back and forth and back and forth and now it's coming back down. So personally, I don't like trading these charts that are just like continually bleeding. And you know, it really hasn't gone anywhere in the last several years, despite almost the entire crypto market rallying. So that kind of acts as a little bit of a red flag for me. You know, if I was absolutely in love with this, then I'd probably look for a long somewhere around 30 cents and I'd probably try to long it back up to a dollar and 40 cents just because we know it kind of at least has this consistent pattern of running. But again, not the kind of thing that I like to trade. A little bit small in terms of market cap. And it looks like, you know, every kind of time it rallies, it's just losing all of it. Yeah. And so my fear is that eventually what I seen in the past is that stuff like this tends to eventually wear out until it just falls through the floor and has a hard time recovering after that.
- [24:20]
A
So, yeah, sorry we couldn't give you better news on that one, Deborah, but we appreciate you being here literally every episode. So thank you, Deborah, and thank you, Brendan. If that technical analysis stuff again is something that you're interested in learning more. The cohort is open this week. So first link. Brendan's trading course is down in the description. Check it out if you're interested. As we move on, I think I moved something up in our chart here. Brendan, just to talk about this isn't necessarily crypto related, it's the macro view. But we're talking macro today with everything that's going on in the, in the world affecting the markets. Bank of America came out with a note saying and I've you see these all the time is that you know, investors are not penalized for buying stocks at all. Time highs traditionally five years later returns have been stronger. So as everything you kind of just said is bitcoin's near all time high. Eth was near all time high Solana. And then obviously the nasdaq, the S P and the Dow have just been rolling new intraday all time highs over the last couple weeks leading us into October. With the fall off now it's like oh, is now, is now time to panic? Is it going to panic sell and, and you know you got to make your own decisions financially and what's right for you. This isn't personal financial advice but history does show that you know, you're not, you're not penalized for not only buying the top but you don't, you don't always want to try and sell like right as we're eclipsing all time highs. But you got to, you know, you got to plan your, plan your trades and trade your plans for everybody individually. But more crypto specific. Brendan, I found this one from Cryptos R Us. He always, he's always sharing some fun charts and I like that guy. Yeah, yeah, he's a fun guy. He's got a great channel, good energy and this was something the, the weave top cycle is over as you know, everybody's saying over at the top or at the top. So here is kind of this GMI bitcoin cycle top finder. The source in the bottom right here is a global macro investor LSEG data stream. So again not our chart but I did find it interesting is you know you can see kind of the cycle top finders hitting all the certain kind of top points of bitcoin prices and then it goes down, it hits the top here, it blows through it and then it goes down, hits the top chops around here back in 21 and then it goes down. And this, this GMI what you know this data here is not even close as, as Cryptos R Us is saying the data bitcoin is just getting started. So I, I thought this was a pretty cool chart. Sadly, I, we don't have necessarily the insights into what goes into this type of chart. But, but, but it is, it is interesting to look at.
- [26:49]
B
Yeah. And I'm actually going to share another chart that, that I would say looks somewhat similar to this.
- [26:53]
A
Sure, sure.
- [26:55]
B
It's something that I've used and looked at in the past where one of the big things that I like to look at. And again, this is a little bit of a secret, so if anyone asks, I didn't tell you, but something that I have looked at is the one month RSI in terms of where bitcoin tends to bottom and top out at. And so it's going to look pretty similar to this. Let me throw it on the screen for all of you and we can look at this together. But this is what it looks like and it goes all the way back to 2010. And so it kind of shows you like the different market cycles. And so TiVo, you know, you don't need to be some sort of expert to read this chart, but I want you to, to give me your best guess. Where do you think the markets bottomed out and topped out at?
- [27:42]
A
Yeah, I'm going to go with the bottom line there in the white. That's around the 40, 40 to 40.5. I'm gonna say that's where I want to buy. Buy the dip. And then I'm gonna say that top line that's around 90 to 95 might be like, hey, we're a little overbought here. This might be a top signal, you know, can I lock in that answer?
- [28:03]
B
You're locked in and you're winning the grand prize for that one. You're going home with it all.
- [28:08]
A
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- [29:10]
B
That's how work gets handled.
- [29:13]
A
That's Asana. Visit us@asana.com that's asana.com if you're a.
- [29:21]
B
Custodial supervisor at a local high school, you know that cleanliness is key and that the best place to get cleaning supplies is from Grainger. Grainger helps you stay fully stocked on the products you trust, from paper towels and disinfectants to floor scrubbers. Plus, you can rely on Grainger for easy reordering, so you never run out of what you need. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. And you'd be right. I mean, you know, this looks very similar to their chart in practice. And again, this is the one month RSI or relative strength index for bitcoin. And you look at this thing and you're like, well, every single cycle it tops out up in here and every single cycle it bottoms out up right down and around here. And this is where we're at right now. You know, we're kind of just crossing into the over bought, overextended territory and we're nowhere near where we normally top out. Now obviously, does that mean that it has to be this way? Does that guarantee anything? No, there can always be a one off scenario. There's no such thing as a 100% success rate. But so far in every cycle we've seen this thing play out to a T where it always goes up here and then down here and up and down and up and down and up and down. And now we are on the way back up and we've seen that in bitcoin since 2022 where it end where it bottomed out. And we have been on the up and up. But this would kind of paint the same idea TiVo where it would say it just does not look like we've topped yet according to this. And this has worked every single cycle cycle prior to this. So I'd look at this, I think you could also look and you know, look at other things as well. But I don't know, some food for thought to kind of align.
- [31:02]
A
We didn't, we honestly didn't even plan this. But this just goes to the fact of why being in this community with Brendan, Ro, Pete, Brian, Joe, Bryce and hey, even myself, you know, you got to give credit where credit's due of producing good, good shows. The team we have is phenomenal because what we do is we try to bring all this different information from all, just not only our opinions but our research and try to put it all together for you guys. And that, that's what Crip Nation is. That's what the Crypto 101 podcast is. And what Brendan just pulled up of like hey, here's, here's or I pulled it up, here's a chart I found. Brandon goes. Oh, that reminds me of something that I like to look, look at this too. Yours was in the middle, mine's in the middle. And then let's just go down the rest of the rundown sheet here. I mean we touch on it every couple of weeks. But let's go compare to what you just showed and I just showed to the Fear of Greed index. It's been teetering in the middle of fear and greed. Just right in the middle at that neutral, you know, 45 to 55. Right. So what is that? That's right in the middle. And then we go over and we haven't looked at this in a long time, but let's go look over at Google Trends for the last year. And Google Trends, you can go back to last year exactly a year ago October into the election in December. A year ago, right? No, the, the right after the elections when everything hit 100. Where is it now? It's at for bitcoin at least it's in 40. What's that? It's in that 40 to 50 range. It's right in the middle. And even crypto in general and altcoins are obviously going to be a lot lower. But again, comparing to its top 20 to its top at 50, 20, 25, right in the middle. So it's like we're, we're in this kind of three month range on the charts. No man's land if you call it. But if you keep coming back to us, you know, every week and we appreciate all the listeners and if you're new here, please give us a thumbs up. Please subscribe because this is what we do. We parse through the information so you can make your own decisions and you come along with us for the ride. But it's like what, what have we talked about non stop for the last three months? It's institutions, they keep coming. They're coming. Listen, Justin, 5.1 trillion dollar asset manager, state Street, I know you've all heard of them, says 60% of institutional investors plan to increase their allocation in bitcoin and crypto. Is that going to happen in the next two months? No, it's going to happen in the next year, two, three years. And like in what you're selling, you're selling because Donald Trump wants to have, you know, season eight of the Apprentice with President G. Like, no, like it doesn't, that's not, that's not smart thought process of how to, you know, try to, you know, manage your money and understand kind of educationally how you want to invest as an investor. Like that's, that doesn't make sense. So you know, I get a little passionate rant about there. But like that we, we, you're in the right spot and just we're all in this together and learning together and all that stuff is, is really kind of how you get through this. Like you need a community. So whether it's Brendan's trading course, hitting subscribe here and coming back each week to hear what we're talking about, or if you want a little bit more access to the team, scroll down and try the $1 trial for, you know, Crypt Nation VIP. Just scroll down, give it a try. Because like, that's what you need. You need this information. You need a community, you need a team.
- [34:08]
B
Yeah, yeah. And like, listen, these kind of things happen too, unfortunately. You know, in a perfect world we shouldn't have all these like news events that throw off things and throw off the, the trend. But guess what? It's not a perfect world. Like these kind of things happen. There's going to be stuff tweeted out, there's going to be geopolitical stuff happening. It's just the way that the world works. It doesn't matter who's in office, it doesn't matter if it's any country in the world. Like these kind of things just happen. They're a natural part of being invested in any kind of asset class. So it's just part of it all. It's really nothing that's too out of the ordinary. So I wouldn't lose sleep over it. I wouldn't freak out too much about it. It's all pretty natural.
- [34:47]
A
Yeah, just the last months of this show, it's been non stop. It's State street, it's Fidelity, it's Citi. Citi initiates bitcoin and crypto coverage. It's like you gotta digest all this stuff and then you can't, you can't puke it all up because, you know, it's reality TV on the world scale. It's like, listen, if we're gonna. If all these. At the end of the day, if we want to go to some World War iii, like, everything's in trouble. Nobody's gonna care about the price of the S and P, the NASDAQ or Bitcoin. We're in a bigger pile of crap. But, like, overall, you know, you just gotta follow the information, follow the research. And like all these massive institutions with trillions of capital are all interested in this space and kind of, kind of actually, it perfectly leads us into the final topic, which we're going to do a little bit more of a deep dive on, is kind of the history of Global 2 money supply. I'm sorry, Global M2 money supply. Now, we bring up that chart a lot because it's a fun thing to bring up. Again, you add it as a tool into your educational investor research, but it's a fun debate. A lot of people love it on Twitter or financial Twitter. A lot of people hate it. But I found some interesting stuff on the history of it. And, and just to kind of tee us off, there was some world news this week out of. I believe it was Japan where they had. They had an election and they. They elected a new prime minister. And that prime minister is pro stimulus, kind of pro. You know, whether it's lowering rates, pumping money into the economy. And then the Nakai, which is the Japan stock market, took off on that. And it's, you know, been rallying with the rest of the world's markets, just like ours. But again, just kind of go. Flows into that storyline of more monies coming into the system, not just from the US and rate cuts, but from around the world. So now we want to bring up this. This is from. What is it? The Kobashi letter. I want to give credit. Co. Co. BSE letter. I don't know how to pronounce that. I'm probably butchering that.
- [36:42]
B
Yeah, truth be told, I'm not sure how to pronounce that one either.
- [36:46]
A
But they have, they have an awesome deep dive of this. So we're, We're. You know, I gave it to Brendan. Me and him have kind of went over this thread a little bit, and we're going to walk you through it. And I think, Brendan, I'll tee it up and. And I'd love to hear your thoughts on it because you're definitely much smarter than me. Basically what this is, this chart is it's kind of Talking about the M2 money supply over the history of the different bubbles. So by comparison to the dot com bubble, the housing crisis, all these other things, like we can track the M2 money supply in the markets and how they go up and down. So Brendan, what, what stuck out to you the most from kind of this research?
- [37:22]
B
Well, number one, it shows that, you know, we are fairly high, right? You look at the chart and I think that this is meant to play with people's emotions a little bit and say, look at how high we were the last time we're up here was 2008 or the dot com crisis or these big other events that have happened before, before these big crashes. However, I think that a lot has changed. What people fail to understand here is like the infrastructure that's been built since then. When you look at the technology stack that's been built then, you didn't have the way that data centers and AI and Nvidia and the chip industry and tech as a whole, right back in the 2008 crisis and or 2008 or the dot com bubble, you didn't have Amazon the way it was. You didn't have Uber, you didn't have Apple the way it was. You didn't have Nvidia in the same space. You didn't have like any of these big companies that we have today. I mean they just were, were not anything close to what they were. And neither was the US's market in general when it comes to tech. And so it looks like this and it says, well, hey, you have to look at this metric. And again, I think this is where historical analysis can be a little bit misleading. The other thing that I noticed is that I don't think it accounts for something like inflation, at least from what I read on the chart. Inflation is not included here. And when you look at how much inflation has increased, I don't have the exact number in front of my head, but it's increased a lot. You know, I want to say over 50% since some of these big events have happened. And so you have to factor that in as well. So you would say, well man, I would hope that this is something that would go up because again, inflation is also going up. So you would expect this to kind of increase to some degree further and further to the upside as well. So what I would say is that it doesn't account for a couple of key things. I know that people like to say that we're in a bubble and it's funny because I've talked to friends lately about this. And they're just doomsday prepping as if there is this really big bubble. And I've asked them why and they say well, we're too high up to the upside. And I'm like, by whose standards? Like what does that mean? We're too, we're too high to the upside. Now obviously pullbacks and stuff are going to happen, but they're talking about like a market wide crash which is kind of like what this chart is alluding to saying crypto is going to crash, equities are going to crash, everything is going to come crashing down. And I just don't see the data to, to get behind that. When you look at the catalysts that caused these as well, you know, you have to look at where that is in the current day. The big things that I hear from people is oh, it's going to be driven by inflation. Inflation really isn't that high. You know, we're talking about a 3% sometimes we've seen sub 3% this year, inflation that's really low. We were at 10% a couple of years ago, almost 10%. Then the next people, the next thing that people talk about is oh, the labor market. And we talked about this semi recently, Thibault. I can't remember if we did it on a rundown, but I know we did it to some of the community members. And we showed that inflation is dominated by the ages of 16 to 24, that inflation rates at 10 and a half percent. And then you have the remaining pockets of 25 to 55 being I think three and a half and then you had 55 up being 2.9%. So again, unemployment rate for those age groups are all really, really low, minus 16 to 24, which is the demographic that AI is taking. Right? That's whose jobs AI is taking is these very repeatable kind of menial entry level jobs and tasks like people who might be working at a drive thru or like people who might be customer service or like people that might be editing or doing kind of like just entry level work. And those are the jobs that's being taken. And again people like to kind of see these one off numbers and I like to always kind of paint the whole picture as it relates to the chart. But the bulk of the data out there, the health of, I would say the crypto market, the health of everything still looks to be all right. Now that doesn't mean that we're not going to have up and downs and that we're not going to have fluctuations because we are, but I think the idea of the kind of the picture that this chart is painting of like, hey, we're getting up to.com like levels is a little bit of a, like, of a, of a strawman fallacy where it's just setting up like a single data point and saying the market could crash because of this single data point. When I think it's emitting a couple of things, I would say it's actually emitting a lot of different data. And that's the way that you have to look at this. Right. When we analyze the crypto market TiVo, we come forth with the charts, we look at the ETF flows, we look at the on chain analytics, we look at the news, we look at what's happening with corporations and with regulation between governments, we look what's happening domestically and on an international level and we have to look at all these different data points and then we compile it onto the show and then we create an argument. And I think that's the way that you have to do a lot of this. You have to say, okay, well what is all of the data points saying? And then let's kind of pull them together to come to an ultimate conclusion. And you know, that's the way that we like to kind of train people and talk to them about over here is let's look at everything first and then make our decision afterwards. Instead of the, the biggest mis, kind of understanding or misconception that I've seen people do in recent weeks and in recent months is take these like one off data points and then run with the story after that. When I think we really have to put everything together first.
- [42:47]
A
Yeah. And I, I, that's why I love having these conversations because we all look at things differently. And I think you broke that down beautifully and you covered the whole picture. But I actually have a little bit of a different take because you were kind of protecting the market of where we are and saying it's okay. And I agree with you, but almost I'd flip this a little bit, dare I say, bullish. Can I. I'm gonna give you a little bullish argument for you. So if everything stays the same, to reach such a level as the dot com bubble, and actually it's part, it's half bullish, half agreeing with you. So let me give you the bullish part. To reach such a level, the US stock market would need to grow another 21%, assuming a constant M2 money supply. So that means the S&P 500 would go up another 20% with just the consistent M2 money supply. So that's no extra whatever is going on right now. If the average consistently happens and the S and p goes up 21%, then we're at the dot com bubble. And then exactly to what you said, what was the dot com bubble? It was companies that just put.com on the end of their name and started raising hundreds of millions and billions of dollars. Like there was just pets before pets.com was a real fluctuating business. There was this, people just put pets.com sports.com like you know, and people were just investing hundreds of millions, billions of dollars in companies that had $0 in revenue, $0 in revenue. And then you go and look at today's monsters and like that, that this is where we agree is, is you can't, you, you can't Compare this to 2000. Go do your research of what those companies were that were getting these valuations. And yes you can maybe finger point at, I don't know, like a Palantir, you know, hood's flying high. But like honestly, one of the biggest P's in the market right now, Brendan, is Costco and Walmart. Like they're at, they're in the, they're in the 40s. I think Nvidia is only in the PE. I think wise Costco's like 42. Nvidia is only at I think 28 or 30. So like I don't, I don't think we're there yet in the tech sector. Plus, you know, the monsters of Facebook and Microsoft and Google, I mean they're all, everything's profitable. So until that capex and this is why you got to go and do the research and we're happy to do it for you and if you hit subscribe and follow along, we'll keep doing it and do it together. But like there's tons of capex and everybody's capex numbers are mind blowing. But then go look at the revenue, go look at the profits. And until that capex surpasses by a large amount what they're bringing in in revenue, then, then that's the red flag because this whole grow, grow, grow, AI, AI, AI. And then you could make the argument that with OpenAI and XAI and Nvidia and CoreWeave, there is this like flywheel starting to build a little bit with all them in the data centers. So that's something I think to watch out on. But all these companies are profitable. It's not like 2000 where people were raising all this money and had $0 in revenue. So I think this is actually a little bullish and it kind of goes back. You know, a 20 move in the S and P is massive, massive. So it goes back to all our other data from bitcoin to the Fear and Greed index to all this RSI is like we're kind of in the middle again. You can go down, there's always corrections and you can go up. But like it feel, it doesn't feel, it doesn't feel toppy to me. Like all this stuff, I still think there's room to go and I think the AI stuff eventually has some probably wild correction down the line. But I don't think we're, I don't think we're quite there yet. I think that story has a lot left to unfold and, and people are still in that FOMO phase of that whole storyline. And that's why I think this bull market, whether it's bitcoin or the S and P kind of continues into next year because what are you going to be on the sidelines? There's a ton of people that are still sidelined from the tariffs. You want to make that mistake again? It truly is the most hated rally and that's why I think it feels right. Even though we're at all time highs, you're in this middle ground. Plus when you go to the other ones, what is it? Covid, the housing crisis? Like you okay, everything that the housing crisis was fraud. Covid was something like a once in, you know, one in huge black swan. So you take your money out, where are you going to put it? The, the dollars have already been printed. So it's not like the dollars disappear. They just have to go somewhere. So is it going into gold, Bitcoin housing? Nobody has the Magic 8 ball, but it's not like the dollars just burn and disappear either.
- [47:02]
B
Yeah, no, I mean you're right, man. You gotta. Again, it goes back to this topic of you have to look at all the data, you have to put all the puzzle pieces together. You can't just take things out of context and take a single data point and run with it. You got to look at all. And then, I mean look at all of those, those crashes and look at what's happened afterwards. Look at the rallies that have happened afterwards. So I don't know again, I think that you made a really good point with when it comes to like why those crashes happened and was there like money behind them? It was like, all right, well one, there was no like revenue and Actual profit behind it. One was a once every 100 year plague or whatever and the other one was straight up fraud. And it's like, all right, so what's this one? Well, it's not fraud, it's not a disease or whatever. It's not, you know, there is profits, in fact, tons of profits being produced. Earnings calls are going well, they're beating expectations, raising guidance and like. So like it's not that. And so like what's going to be the catalyst of this crash? And I think that that's where people have a hard time answering it. And again, I do think at some point we probably do stop seeing the results that we are seeing right now, but we just haven't seen it yet. So. Yeah, you know, anyway, we're getting ahead of ourselves.
- [48:17]
A
No 100, but like just to put the M2 money supply and all those historic events. Quick Google like chart here, not your wonderful technical analysis chart, but here, 2000, when you want to sell, you someone sell in here and then miss this. Here's the 2008. It's like where. And then obviously Covid was so sharp.
- [48:36]
B
Like, are you going to sell the bottom? Yeah.
- [48:39]
A
And again, like who, who knows? We're just speculating on this. But I agree, I don't think that blow off top phase has happened yet. We could be talking right now. Today might be where we come back to when, when the, you know, the. Again just speculating. But like when the crash, the AI bubble pops. Maybe today at these levels is where we'll come back to. Who knows? Nobody knows. But like that's why you can't get worked up in this stuff. You gotta have that long term vision and, and as we say on the show more often than not, zoom out. What a Friday show. Brendan, I don't know if there's any questions. We had a good little active chat today on a Friday, even though the market was a little red. If there's any questions, toss them in. We might have. We have a couple minutes for questions. But any, any final thoughts, Brendan, of the episode today?
- [49:21]
B
No, dude, I'll tell you what. I was looking at just what the crypto market and everything was doing in general, you know. Hey, as the market falls here, I've had some cash ready. It's funny, I know me and YouTube were talking, I think it was about a week ago, literally last Friday I think it was. And we were like, yeah, you know, kind of just looking at some profit taking and getting cash on the sidelines, ready for something like this to happen. And we're getting it and so the cash is ready. And, you know, I'll tell you what, as the crypto market falls here, I am going to be looking at buying opportunities. And that is because we have the belief that crypto can go higher still. I would still say before the year's over. I still think new all time highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum are on the table. I think that once we get the government back up as well, that means that the ETF approval process will resume and that we're going to be at a very high likelihood of seeing a Solana XRP and Litecoin ETF get approved as well for those kind of spot ETFs. So that's another thing that I'm looking forward to. So, you know, listen, pretty bright future. I know the day looks dark, but again, when in doubt, like Kiva said, when in doubt, zoom out. And there's still a lot of really positive catalysts on horizon.
- [50:35]
A
Yeah, couldn't agree more. And very exciting week next week we're gonna be together. We can't release a schedule. We have a lot of stuff to do in person. We are going to try and get together and do at least one episode, whether it's with Brendan, Brian or Joe, just to give you an update of what's going on, especially if there's breaking news. So be on the lookout for it. But I can't give you guys a schedule, so I'm sorry for that. But we will talk to you guys next week. If you enjoyed the show, give it a like. Please subscribe if you're new and send it to a couple friends. We're building a really fun community here on YouTube. I hope everybody enjoys their Friday and their weekend. We're going to talk to you guys next week. Thanks for being with us. Enjoy your weekend. Bye. Bye, everybody.