← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
Bryce Paul
With that being said, guys, now's. Now's a good time to be a crypto investor. I hope everybody who's watching, you know, is not sidelined. I hope, you know, this is now the time to. To zoom in and to, you know, to pay attention, because it's going to be a crazy, crazy, fun 2024. If you guys stuck through the bear market, don't. Don't close up shop now. I would say stick around and keep listening to Crypto 101.
- [00:36]
Brendan
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast for the most special episode of the year. It is the end of your show, and what you just heard at the beginning of this episode was our fearless leader, Bryce Paul, one year ago today, saying that 2024 was going to be an exciting year. He said, if you survive the bear market, do not sell now. This is not the time to do it. Better times are ahead. And wow, what a year we had. Bryce, you said that one year ago today. And we're doing another end of year episode. And I am so excited to do this one. This is obviously the most exciting one we've done over the last. My tenure here. So this will be our third end of year episode. But what a call. That was literally the last clip soundbite that was played in the year of 2023. And here we are today wrapping up 2024.
- [01:26]
Bryce Paul
What a year it's been. No, I mean, there's so much that lined up, you know, at the end of last year. We were looking. We were staring down the barrel of guaranteed launches for the Bitcoin ETFs. And from the conversations that we've had with guests on the show and, you know, behind the scenes with other hedge fund managers, it was just so obvious that the market was going to continue ripping because we had really a new. A new category of buyers entering the market. One of the things we always say here is, like, the only thing that ties together every single bull market in history is an ever expanding universe of a new category of buyers, right? And so we. We had, you know, the whole meme of, like, institutional adoption is here. Like, it actually arrived with a bitcoin etf. So. So that was just like my rallying cry just to boost the morale of everything. Because, you know, in 2023, we. We got hit with a lot of different, you know, a lot of different, you know, what's it called? Like, trials and tribulations, I guess you could say. Yeah, Curveballs. Thank you. Like, when in 2023, like, March, I remember, like Silicon Valley bank blew up, you know, or like, you know, what we're seeing now in retrospect, actually, is that the FDIC and the SEC and the infinite, like everybody kind of colluded to, to choke point the crypto banking industry. So that's a whole nother conversation with Silvergate and Signature and all that kind of stuff. But they weren't like defunct anyhow. 2023 was like kind of a good year, kind of not a good year. Like altcoins did not participate in a lot of the rally and so I still felt morale was low. 2024 obviously has been iconic. You know, iBit, which is BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is the fastest ETF in history to reach $50 billion. And not only is it the fastest in history, it did that five times faster than the next guy, than the next quickest one. So it did it in like 228 days. The other one took 1300 days. It was some like Vanguard ETF or something like that. So very clearly, you know, big flows, big interest, pensions, buying crypto now, endowments now, you know, buying crypto through, through the bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. So it's been wild. We're going to have a lot more ETFs launching next year. I think the flows are going to be much larger next year than they were this year. So we think, oh wow, $50 billion into one ETF. And you know, all these other ETFs had, you know, billions and billions. Next year is going to be even bigger. And the answer to that, you know, the question is like, why? And the answer is because there's so many funds that have been sitting on the sidelines and their legal mandates are just like, yo, we have to wait and watch these ETFs trade any ETF product. Got to wait for them to trade for a or so. So we could kind of monitor the liquidity, monitor the spreads, monitor the creation, redemption process, you know, monitor all these different factors that go into, are we going to offer this to our clients? And so now that we've had one year of trading history for all these ETFs in crypto, I mean, I think this, it's going to be wild. So, yeah, I've got all sorts of different thoughts and predictions that, that I'm excited to share here on the show, but yeah, Brendan, I, I take it you're equally as bullish as I am. And, and all the excitement here is percolating up in your soul.
- [04:40]
TiVo
Just as much as, yeah, equally as bullish. And it's crazy thinking back at this year and everything that's happened. And then I can very confidently say that I'm expecting an even more bullish year next year. And so we're kind of ending up or wrapping up this year of 2024 after all these catalysts. We're talking the different kinds of cryptocurrency, ETFs. We've seen approvals from Ethereum and Bitcoin. We've already seen applications for a handful of others. We talk about the having, we talk about the supply squeeze that we're seeing on exchanges right now, and just the overall kind of shrinking and circulating supply that's happening on Bitcoin. When you look at the election clarity and regulation clarity and all these other things, we're now looking forward and saying, hey, and in light of all of that, next year can be even better.
- [05:30]
Bryce Paul
The regulatory regime that just that the transfer of power from Biden to Trump is, is the single most bullish thing in crypto that I've seen since I've been here for, for eight years. Right. Like, we've never seen sort of a, A, a turning a pivot point like this in the market. And it, it all coalesces, like with the, the, the year after the having. The year after the having is always the great, a great year. Right. 2013, 2017, 2021. Now we got 2025. So it's like that pattern should kind of hold true and just, it's gonna be, it's gonna be wild. So, yeah, TiVo, I'm excited to, to kick things off, man. This is, this is. Or I should say wrap things up, but then kick things off.
- [06:10]
Brendan
Absolutely. Show notes are below, as always, so if you want to jump around, we have a lot to cover. What we're going to do first here is showcase our predictions. Last year, I believe we literally recorded this one year ago today. I'll say I remember. Yeah.
- [06:26]
Bryce Paul
I was going to say one thing that wasn't on my Bingo card for 2024 was for me to become a significant meme. Coin, bull and trader.
- [06:38]
Brendan
Well, we'll cover it all. We're going to do price predictions and then kind of we touched on in the beginning there. We're going to be like, we're going to show you our, our what we said last year. Then we'll cover how we got to where we are today. And then we'll, we'll wrap it up with maybe kind of new thoughts, whether it's meme coins or kind of the projection of what we're seeing for 20, 25. And then, of course, we'll wrap up this episode with our bitcoin price predictions for one year from now. So let's kick it off. Let's review. Let's go back in time and see what the three of us said exactly one year ago today for the bitcoin.
- [07:12]
Bryce Paul
Price recollection of what we said. So I'm excited for this one. I think this time next year. Oh, boy. I'm gonna go 80,000. 80,000 on the head. You know, a little less than double from where we're at right now. Today, we're at 44,000 on the head. I'll go 80,000.
- [07:33]
Brendan
Yeah. I'm. I'm torn. I mean, I want. I want to be the degenerate and say, like, 120, but I think that there's kind of like we talked about when everybody's scared and, you know, now's the time to get in, there's something. It feels like last year was the bot. Hold your nose and buy. And that's where you're rewarded. I'm going 88. I like double numbers. Last year, we did 33. I'm going 88.
- [07:59]
TiVo
You know, I went a little bit conservative last year with my estimates. So this year, I feel like it's only necessary that I compensate for it. I was gonna go 85, but instead of being in the middle of the range or at the bottom of this range, you know what? I'm gonna go above and beyond this year. Give me 102.
- [08:17]
Bryce Paul
Let's go.
- [08:18]
Brendan
Wow. There it is. That's a first. I think that's a first for a Crypto 101 podcast. 100 figures. Wow. Brandon, give him his flowers. Unbelievable. Here you go.
- [08:33]
TiVo
Thank you. Thank you.
- [08:34]
Bryce Paul
I have a microfiber cloth.
- [08:35]
Brendan
Here you go, buddy. I think what we just hit today on the day of recording, we are releasing this week after record. But today we just touched 108, and Brendan coming in at 102. Congratulations, Brendan. That's fantastic. I mean, you can't get much closer. Like, if this was the Price is Right, you're winning both showcase showdowns. You're walking away with cars, vacations, and the whole nine.
- [09:01]
TiVo
It's why I'm here, right? I look at the charts. I love the charts. Charts are my life. And no, you know, it's a good year for everyone that's holding crypto. I think that what all three of us agreed on there was we were looking at the future. And we said, hey, things can get bigger, things can get better. And we're expecting the chart, despite any kind of turbulence, to really end the year up and to the right. And that's what all three of us agreed on. And, you know, sure enough, fast forward to where we're at today. It was an even bigger, better year than all of us expected. Because in light of all of us, given our predictions, Bitcoin here it is outperforming all of our expectations. And I don't think any of us want to complain about that.
- [09:42]
Bryce Paul
Amen.
- [09:43]
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- [10:50]
Brendan
No, not at all. And then so we are, we already kind of kicked it off with, you know, the Catalyst that got here. But just, you know, want to hear from both you guys, the absolute experts of the show. You know, how did we get here? One one final time. Take us through, you know, some of the biggest points of the year that you think you know, led to the Catalyst, because there certainly were a lot of them and it definitely wasn't straight up. You know, you might look back at a year chart and think, wow, you know, this is crazy. It just went straight up like a hockey stick. And that really wasn't the case.
- [11:19]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, I mean, the ETF flows that, that started in January, right? You know, I remember back in January of this year and people were pretty bearish, actually. There was like, oh, everybody's front running the ETFs. These things are going to sell off, you know, all that kind of stuff. This is kind of the ipo. This is going to mark the top for bitcoin and, and bitcoin did sell off like the, the really the maybe the second half of January or so peaked out. Pull up a chart here. Peaked out on the 10th, dropped significantly from call it 50,000 all the way down to 35000 bucks by the end of January. And then it you know, started that really steep ascent in March driven by a lot of altcoin mania. And then we corrected for pretty much six or seven months like from March all the way to, to November it was sideways. And a lot of that was just the regulatory combativeness of the sec. Like we don't need to go into it. Everybody's fully like experienced this like viscerally in the markets every time like Gary Gensler and and crew would issue a wells notice like the market would just sell off, right. And, and you know all the, the good actors in the space whether it's Coinbase or Kraken or Uniswap, right. These guys were getting hammered by, by the regulators and you know they were like coming out swinging and saying hey, we're going to defend ourselves. Like we, we think we're doing the right thing. And so I think you know, this year was, you know, it wasn't really that and why I think we still have so much left in the tank. It's like this really does remind me of like that sort of 2019 period where we, we ran up hard and then we corrected for like six months and then we had that big you know, 20, 20, 2021 bull run. You know, I do think that you know, this year although it, you know, we had a good, you know, February and March and now we've had a good end of the year. Everything in between was like pretty muddled up and a lot of it was the regulatory uncertainty. So kind of like what Brennan alluded to earlier with, with the, you know, the Trump trade is now back on, markets are rallying. I, I still think this has a lot of gas left in the tank. You know the tech, you know we always look at the technicals, the technicals. I think when, when we were kind of at the peak in March, right we hit 75k. You know the price was very, very, very far extended above you know, the, the 20, the 50, the 200 day moving average. And so when we kind of corrected back down and finally bottomed out around 50k in August forming a nice inverse head and shoulders, we had bottomed right there below the 200 day and then just kicked out. And so I think there was Just, you know, a lot of support, a lot of buyers, a lot of people, you know, willing to put their, their nuts on the line and say hey, like crypto is, is you know, oversold and markets are kind of like, you know, you know, they're, they're binary, right? They go up or they go down. And so when a market was, was going down so much like it was earlier this year and it's hard to remember now because markets have gone up so much in the last. But you know, there was a period in like, you know, the summer, the summer doldrums which you know, you really, really had to be confident that things were going to get better. And you know, those lucky or not lucky but you know, those, those convicted buyers, you know, are very now proven to be, you know, in the right, they made the right call but you know, it wasn't always a sure thing. And So I think 2025 is going to be more of a kind of an easy mode for the market. But hey, could, could be wrong there. But I think 2025 is going to be a year where, you know, a lot of people are going to probably, probably make it, we're all going to make it that year.
- [14:56]
TiVo
Yeah, I mean I would agree it's the ETFs were a massive factor and we did see that kind of initial sell off. It brought us down to what like 48k and we went through this lengthy choppy period and I think that that was a wear you out, tear you out phase as we like to call it over here. But what it really was was this fantastic move for bitcoin that led us to new all time highs. We had a crazy move to the upside. Then we just needed to chill out for a little bit, kind of of take a breather, collect ourselves. And then now we're really starting to see the continuation to the upside. And I think that with what we have moving forward, I'm expecting more continuation and I don't think that that's anything that's too out of pocket or too outlandish. You know, when we look at the, I mean what was it from, from start to finish? I think we did it in March. We really didn't break out until November. I mean this was around a six month plus consolidation and I think that that could easily lead us into maybe another year of running to the Upside. I mean when you look at bitcoin and how it bottomed out at the end of 2022, we went up for the most part, you know, right to that New all time high. We had about a year plus of running and I think that we can see the same thing all over again. And also, if there's any reason people have thrown around the term supercycle a lot over the last decade of bitcoin, I think that if there is any reason for a super cycle in the crypto markets, this is the cycle for it. And you know, we've only talked about really, you know, catalyst number one, but there's all these other ones that are there as well. Bryce.
- [16:34]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, and it's not even like, like you said, like, you know, the ETFs, like the regulatory environment, like we have now like a full mandate, like with all the senators like that got elected, like I stand with crypto is tracking all these senators, you know, over 250, you know, US senators and congressmen are now like pro crypto. And you know, know there, there was a, an SEC commissioner that was looking for like reconfirmation that just this morning that, you know, is now no longer going to be confirmed because of her anti crypto policy. So like, you know, the, the, the, the largest super PAC during this election was Fair Shake, right? Fair Shake was, you know, raised $200 million. It was all dedicated to crypto, right? Giving crypto a fair shake. And so just the political pour out from crypto right now and running through the election, that was the swing vote. I mean that, that really was the swing vote. And you know, the Democrats had alienated crypto holders and traders and companies. So this is just, yeah, like you said, the super cycle very well could be memed into existence because now we have, you know, Elon Musk, the chief meme lord of the Universe, you know, literally memeing the Department of Government Efficiency, AKA Doge, into existence. And like, we can't talk about crypto this year without mentioning the meme coin craze. Like, you know, my, my biggest meme coin trade this year was like a 50x on a coin called SPX6900. And you know, I was just looking around finding the, the cultiest communities, the people that were just ravenous, that had incredible sort of virality to their, their memes. And that held through, you know, many bull and bear markets up and down, up and down. And this thing went, you know, I bought it at 2 cents. It went up all the way to almost, you know, a dollar and five cents, you know, and I was able to cash out a little bit. But, but those kind of moves that, that happened in the meme coin world, like with Mog or with pop cat or with dog with hat. I mean, there was so many of these crazy little things that you can't ignore it. There's. There's very clearly a lot of demand in the market for this kind of stuff. And then, you know, moonshot came out and people could buy, you know, meme coins directly from their Apple Pay. And, like, there's just, you know, now the technical sort of infrastructure in the App Store and everything for people to just, you know, punt on these meme coins. I have friends and family now asking about crypto and how to invest and all that stuff. So it really is like all the. All the makings of. Of potentially a, you know, like you said, a super cycle. Like, what does that look like? You know, we could talk about our price predictions, you know, later on in the show, but, yeah, things are. Things are looking actually, you know, really, really nice here. So, I mean, I'm excited.
- [19:18]
TiVo
This is pump Dot fun. I look at the pump wild success that they've had stemming from the meme coin space, you know, built on solana. You know, TiVo me and you talked about this probably a few weeks ago, but they were able to do. I mean, this is basically like their. Their first year at this, and they're at $240 million in revenue this year, and then they did 93 million alone in the month of November, which is crazy. And what they've been able to do is revolutionize the way that crypto is done through meme coins. So when we look at the meme coin vertical, the game was changed with them, just like the game was changed with Bitcoin and Ethereum and Poly Market and a lot of these other places, places and projects and companies that are out there. You know, they came in and they revolutionized meme coins as we know it. And that's where we got all of these cool runs, you know, like Bryce said with. With spx, but also, you know, one that I like to play was Chill Guy, you know, a little bit.
- [20:19]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, that was a great one for you.
- [20:20]
TiVo
It was like, kind of my introduction to the scene. I'd only ever traded legacy memes, but kind of the same thing. I was just looking at sentiment, Bryce, and. And which communities are really kind of ravenous in nature. And, you know, sure enough, there's been a lot of different plays out there, but crypto just continues to perform and improve. And I think it's easy for us to look at this and say, oh, we're going to improve in defi and all These big financial ways and sometimes people just want to have a little bit of fun. Sometimes people just want to be a part of something. And you know, even though we love building infrastructure and we, we love seeing projects build towards the next generation of finance, sometimes not everything is about all the fundamentals and making money. And that was one of the big lessons that I learned this year is that sometimes a dedicated community and fan base and mission and seeing people who are just committed to that is a very viral and convincing factor. And so that's something that I've started weighing more this year is looking at the community and their activity and their involvement. You know, what's their social media presence like? Because we've seen the power that that's had with countless meme coins going to a billion plus dollar valuation.
- [21:37]
Brendan
I think we talked about it too, on the meme coin front is it's basically, you can call it what you want in many different ways to cut it, but like, what's the difference of that between, you know, that and sports gambling? Not much in sports gambling is huge and growing at a wild rate. I mean, we're talking tens of billions of dollars, if not in the hundreds of billions. I think here, like Americans bet more than $121 billion in sports according to the American Gaming Association. So, you know, there's, there's the possibility of, you know, how big can this meme craze get? The moonshot, I think is the best example of how you just download it on your phone. I did that, you know, or NFT guy Brian McNut showed me how to do it. I did it and I bought ris and I lost 40%. They're definitely not all, they're not all winners by any means. I just thought maybe the Rizzler would get on Rismas the Christmas time this year, but it has not happened yet. Still holding that. But, but it's fun. Like again, it was an amount of money that if I lost it all, it's the same as betting, you know, the Eagles to cover on a Sunday. It's like it's either going to double or more or I'm going to lose it. Like that's kind of the mentality. But if you get enough people in that mentality, the market cap of these things can, can fly.
- [22:50]
Bryce Paul
Yeah.
- [22:52]
TiVo
And I mean even kind of stemming away from meme coins, one of the big catalysts and trends that I noticed this year is one that we have up on the screen right now is just looking at Bitcoin's exchange reserves and we've spent a lot of time this year talking about just how supply and demand works with crypto, especially how that relates to the having. But even more so than that, you know, what we've seen is that retail has been buying up bitcoin and holding it for long term. The ETFs have been buying up bitcoin and holding it for long term. And what is happening on exchanges is that bitcoin is leaving and leaving and leaving exchanges. And you can see that this blue line is since the start of 2024, and it's just been going down. And this black line is the price of bitcoin. And, you know, it's. It's no crazy concept that as the supply of bitcoin is being reduced and the demand is increasing, well, price is appreciating. And that's where we've seen bitcoin go over here, from $40,000 per Bitcoin to now above $107,000 per Bitcoin. And so even if we zoom out beyond this, I mean, this trend has been happening for a couple of years now, now, and just goes back to the idea that bitcoin is becoming more rare because it has a fixed supply that can ever be in existence. And the having reduces that. The ETFs reduce that. You and I as retail traders help reduce that. But now we're looking at a really big catalyst price, which is the potential of this strategic bitcoin reserve and maybe other kinds of companies and governments and endowments and pensions like you mentioned, all starting to open up to this idea of accumulating bitcoin as well. And that's something that hasn't even been factored into this to this chart that we're already looking at yet. Wow.
- [24:39]
Bryce Paul
Yeah. No, this is. This is definitely a wild chart. It's one of those things, you know, the, you know, microstrategy is buying. It seems like a billion dollars of bitcoin a week that's got to come off the exchanges. The ETFs are buying another fricking billion dollars a week. It seems like that's got to come off the exchanges. And so, you know, at some point that might, you know, that might reverse. But I think that's just kind of the trend. As the price goes higher and there's more buyers, there's going to be less bitcoin available to trade. And the only thing that gets more bitcoin onto exchanges is a very high price. Right. Because the only thing to incentivize a guy like me who's been holding my bitcoin in cold storage for years and years and years is to. To transfer that to an exchange to sell is if the price goes up very, very, very, very quickly and very high, right? And that's supply and demand. Like, the price needs to go high in order to incentivize the suppliers to, To. To. To supply it to the market. But, yeah, as. As the price of bitcoin continues just to kind of grind higher slowly but surely, and. And there's, you know, tight market making, I think that just continues to fall, you know, that that sort of available balance on exchanges continues to fall.
- [25:54]
Brendan
I think that that's a perfect point here. I'll call it Halim in the show. And so that's kind of a good summary of where, you know, basically where we've. Where we've come this year. And I. There's a little seg segment I put together, kind of to tie a bow, if you will, on the year for this specific show. In this show, we put a lot of effort into it, and a lot of that effort stems from the work that you guys are doing behind the scenes, you know, 99% of the time, right. Of, you know, research this stuff, deep diving, whether it's, you know, interviews that we published or meetings that we don't necessarily publish, and, you know, diving into the fundamentals and the technicals of everything. And so I cooked up a couple stats for us, and we literally have all had some winners. And so, you know, I remember, you know, from kind of the team talking and Bryce and Brendan, you know, Bass came out, and you guys were very, very bullish on Bass. And Bryce came and said, hey, we got to talk to somebody from Arrow. Can you get an Arrow podcast? And so we went and we got an Arrow podcast. It was April 23rd, and, you know, the Arrow coin dropped on Coinbase, it was pretty bullish. You guys nailed that from basically the beginning. But we didn't get the podcast out until it was like A$62. But after the podcast, there's a beautiful dip. You could have got it at 40 cents. So you could have learned about Arrow. You could have learned about Bass. And I know Brendan and I, we talked about Bass consistently through the summer on the rundowns, and the price went down to 40 cents. Now it's at $2.09. Another one, Bryce, I remember you slacked me over was we got to find somebody with Sui Sui. That that episode published July 13th at a price of $0.76. Now $4.50 plus, you could have learned about Sui on July 13th for $0.76. Brendan. In the summer, we had a Solana, a big Solana episode in the middle of the summer. That was obviously a great call. And then, you know, just to put a little feather in my cap, if you will, the, the infamous, the infamous Robin Hood call. I know it's not necessarily crypto, but we, we had them on at the end of last year, December 23rd. And I just kind of went on a tangent. One day in February, it was like February 11th was, was the exact date. And I just was like, guys, this proxy, nobody's talking about this as a proxy. Everybody's doing Coinbase, everybody's doing Microstrategy, nobody's talking about Hood. And the, the price that day was $11, and right now it's 43. So that's my pitch to you guys. If you've been here for a year, two years, you know, four years of the history of the show, you know, we love having you, we appreciate you. If this, if you're somebody that's new, you know, don't come or please come all the time, but don't come just when the price is hot, when, when you think it's boring during the summer, you listen, you learn and that, you know, we're always talking about that stuff. And Brendan and I really grind out those rundown episodes when there's not much going on. But that's where the value is and that's where the crypto alpha is to be a part of this community all the time. And then obviously, if you want more access to Brendan and Bryce, you know, we have some links down below to join the community, to see these guys and hear these guys every single day, which is where the most alpha comes from. But, you know, this podcast is free. We put it out at least twice a week. And we're really passionate about it and put a lot of hard work into it. And I just wanted to, you know, share those numbers with, with you guys as well, Bryce and Brendan, to show like, man, we. We're really putting in a lot of good work here.
- [29:08]
TiVo
Yeah.
- [29:08]
Bryce Paul
So I think, I think my favorite podcasts this year were with the Super State guys, their chief legal officer, Alex Zos, and their. Their co founder and chief business officer, Jim Hiltner. I mean, these guys are working on, you know, an on chain, you know, asset manager and basically an on chain, blackrock, if you will. And, you know, they founded as well with. Co founded with the guy who started compound, Robert Leshner. And so they're the Real deal. And, and it was just so interesting to hear them talk about the work that they're doing and also how this sort of new regulatory regime is going to open up, you know, so much white space basically for innovation. And you know, right now they're managing, you know, under a billion dollars and I, I could very clearly see the pathway forward for that to be 10 billion, 50 billion over the course of the, you know, the next five years or something. So I think what, what the Super State guys were doing or are doing was really, really, really impressive and I loved learning from them. So yeah, check out those episodes with, with Alex Zos and Jim Hiltner.
- [30:16]
TiVo
Yeah, that was a fantastic episode. I think for me, I really enjoyed getting to hear from some of those ETF providers. Like I mentioned, when we look at 21 shares in Bitwise, I know from 21 shares we had Federico and from Bitwise we had Matt Hogan and actually another member from his team who was Ryan and they were fantastic, they provided such solid insights. And for me, you know, I don't know that kind of back end of the ETF side of things nearly as well as they do. So they were able to shine a lot of light and say, hey guys, you know, here's why we actually expect things to ramp up and increase and do bigger and better. And they helped kind of show me what is a reasonable expectation in the years to come and it's actually greater than what we've seen so far. And so for me that was really eye opening hearing what they see kind of some of these smart money, big investors doing in the coming years of crypto and also just kind of how their viewpoint on it is, is changing. And again, I'm a trader, so I think I have to mention this one, but we had Jason Urban, who's the head of trading from Galaxy, that was a good one on and I just ate that episode up. So if you're a trader as well and you enjoy the art of trading, I think that you're going to really find a lot of enjoyment but also just useful information from an episode like that one.
- [31:44]
Brendan
Yeah, 100% Matt. Matt Hogan's definitely my, my favorite guy. I think he's just like the good guy of crypto. He always makes the time for us and such a cool, calm, collected figure in the space. And I think is what I really love about him is he's been in the ETF space for so long, so he has that experience and he's just kind of just has that vision of hey, this is the the process. He's all about the process. The process. And, and we've had many interviews with him over the course of the time I've been here and he's just been locked in, focused, had the vision and it's all, it's all coming true. And then definitely a runner up for me. And just kind of a side note was the, the Digital Currency Summit as a whole that we just put on last week. Oh man, we, we previewed it in the rundown last week. We had the link below for the free tickets. But that, that Digital Currency Summit, we do a couple of those a year, so we'll definitely keep you updated when the next one is. But my God, what a lineup. You know, Bryce and I were talking about it after we did it, but it was an all star lineup. Matt Hogan, Federico 21 shares was there. Jim Hiltner, Alex Zozos from Superstate, all those guys that we all just met. Wisdom Tree, Wisdom Tree and just in tons more. So everybody that we just said were our favorite interviews of the year was all packed into a two day, our three day virtual summit. And so, you know, that was by far our best one. And the momentums here, the crypto101 name is definitely respected in the space. That's why we get all these great guests and the momentum for us is just carrying forward into the next year. So, so let's transition. We got, we got a couple minutes left, about 10 minutes. You know what, what are you guys eyeing up? What are the catalysts going to be for 2025? Get out your crystal balls, let's talk about it and then we'll wrap it up with our bitcoin price predictions for 2025.
- [33:32]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, I think for me, you know, keeping an eye on, on token unlocks, there's going to be a lot of inflation and unlocks throughout next year. So, so really making sure that people are aware of when these token unlocks are oftentimes it's not ideal to, to buy a crypto right before a token kind of unlocks a big portion of that because there's a big bunch of supply that could potentially hit the market. So I'm on the lookout for that, I'm on the lookout for and, and Brennan, I'm, I'm sorry that I'm going to take this one from you. So you gotta, you gotta think of some other ones. But the, the crypto ETFs that are gonna launch, those are gonna be big inflection points in the market. I, I also think two things with the current ETFs that will be big inflection points that will inspire more capital to come into the crypto ETFs. One is in kind redemptions and subscriptions. You know, basically being able to contribute Bitcoin, actual Bitcoin from your cold storage to a company like BlackRock or Bitwise and then them minting you a, an ETF. Right. And so then when you're also wanting to sell your etf, being able to get Bitcoin in return directly from that company. This is something that they've tried to do in their initial applications. But Gary Gensler's SEC stopped and I think that the new SEC will probably be more excited about doing something like that and innovating in that kind of nature. So in kind redemption subscription, that's going to be big and I think that's going to happen maybe not next year, but at least the year after that. I think there's a lot of tax implications as well that they probably want to make sure they're not running a foul of anything. But Scott Besant who runs the treasury, he's going to make sure that, you know, things are, you know, things are, are dialed in. And then I would also say for the Ethereum ETF having staking rewards, I actually have a third one here but, but staking rewards for Ethereum into the etf. So basically people who hold the Ethereum ETF could also earn like a 4% annualized dividend or yield or interest. Whatever way you want to think about it. What it really is is staking rewards that would get, you know, distributed to the holders of the Ethereum etf. So I think that's going to happen. I think that one's an easier one to bite off than the, the thing I, the, the in kind stuff I was just talking about. So that one's big. And then third, you know, Tebow, you just mentioned Matt Hogan from, from Bitwise. So they've got an ETF or, sorry, they've got a, an otc, what's called a, a trust fund basically called bitw. And I was looking at Bitworthy and BITW got, the week after Trump was announced that he's the winner, BITW announced that they're going to try to uplist this, this trust fund into an etf. And so what's interesting about this is BITW is like a market cap weighted ETF that holds Bitcoin, Ethereum and the top 10 cryptos by market cap. And this is trading at a discount to nav, basically the same scenario that happened with gbtc. When GBTC was in, you know, a trust fund that was traded over the counter at a steep discount, then it was listed. This is it right here. Yeah. Then it was listed as an etf. And then sort of that convergence, you know, caused, you know, a little, a huge boost in profits for the, the holders. So I think that when, when Bitwise actually gets listed as an etf, you know, that discount from NAV will converge and people will be able to profit. It's, it's a, I think a pretty easy arbitrage opportunity. So I think that when, you know, this is going to be another good one. BitW, again, not financial advice or anything, but could be a, could be, you know, there's a little bit of cushion baked into that trade right there. So BITW could be a big one.
- [37:40]
Brendan
How do you. And it's bitW. You have to be a quality like one of those qualified investors or you.
- [37:46]
Bryce Paul
Can'T, you have to, you have to buy it. Otc, there's something called better markets and, and it's listed in trades on there. I think people who have like a brokerage account are able to get it. You might need to be accredited or you might, I'm not entirely sure. I haven't traded it myself. But yeah, I, I kind of, I'm.
- [38:04]
Brendan
Sure we know something Vanguard won't let you get your hands on it.
- [38:07]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [38:11]
TiVo
For next year is that we have Vanguard opening up to bitcoin. How about that?
- [38:16]
Brendan
That'd be great.
- [38:18]
Bryce Paul
We want them on our team.
- [38:20]
Brendan
We want all those people with Bryce on the staking. I, I was, we talked about that yesterday when we were making the rundown. I was like, I think staking is going to be a big one. And then that kind of like we said earlier, where, you know, a lot of these big funds, they have to wait until, know a certain amount of time until they can allocate money and then that opens up a whole other different investing class of those dividend growers, which is an entire, you know, type of funds that manage. Like if you get Ethereum offering staking, then it opens it up to the dividend growth strategy which is, you know, billions and billions of dollars.
- [38:51]
Bryce Paul
Very well said.
- [38:53]
TiVo
I agree. You know, the, the only ones that I would want to include in there are some stuff that we've already talked about. The Bitcoin strategic reserve. I think we're going to probably see more companies, more governments, more retail people just all buying more Bitcoin. I think that this whole idea of regulation, clarity With a change in the sec, we have the new crypto czar being David Sachs. Very pro crypto. We also got Gary Gendler getting the boot from the SEC in January. And we have a whole lot of others.
- [39:26]
Bryce Paul
Day one, I will fire Gary Gensler.
- [39:34]
Brendan
Had to play that for Brendan one more time this year.
- [39:36]
TiVo
It's his favorite, perhaps one of the greatest clips that we have received this decade. I'm all for it, but I mean, yeah, just all, all these, all these other things. I think that we can see the addition of crypto index funds, more ETFs. The that's been a big takeaway for me is that a lot of these ETF pro providers say, hey, we want more altcoin ETFs. And I think that that will eventually lead us towards this idea of crypto index funds. So a lot of big stuff to look forward to. I think that the sky is the limit when it comes to potential next year.
- [40:06]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, I think micro strategy is going to continue to boom as well. You know, I think it was up 500% this year. It could very well do another 500%. Michael Saylor is buying up as much bitcoin as possible. And the bond market loves buying his, his convertibles. So. So yeah, MicroStrategy is going to continue to print. I, I saw a guy named Jack Mahlers who's like this big bitcoiner OG kind of guy. He was on a podcast just the other night and he said that he's hearing rumblings of a day one executive order in regards to some crypto stuff, some pro crypto stuff. So if that day one executive order is, you know, the bitcoin strategic reserve, that would be huge. So we'll see. I also saw Texas is trying to get their own bitcoin strategic reserve at a state level. And Texas is the 8th largest economy in the world. So, you know, even though it's just a state, it's like a very, very powerful state. So, so they, you know, it might as well be, you know, all of Europe. Yeah, it might as well be a country.
- [41:13]
Brendan
Token unlocks as like I, I want to. We're very bullish, obviously, and I think our price predictions will show that when we get there in a second. Bryce gave us token unlocks. Bre Interested in your one speed bump that you, you could see being next year? That I'm interested in your take on that.
- [41:28]
TiVo
I think my one speed bump could maybe be some institutions or hedge funds, mainly hedge funds announcing short positions on bitcoin. We saw what that did to the price action of microstrategy when it was seeing explosive growth, just moving. I think it was like 2010 a day TiVo for a couple weeks straight.
- [41:46]
Bryce Paul
Yeah, it was like the most heavily traded stock in the world at one point.
- [41:52]
TiVo
It was. And then we saw like a single group come out and say, hey, we think this is overvalued. We're going to short it. And then the price crumbled under that kind of pressure. So I think eventually we're going to get some sort of FUD like that. Maybe it's not exactly that, maybe it's not a short position, but I think that we're going to get some sort of FUD that says, hey, this could challenge the price of bitcoin. Maybe someone out there thinks that it's overvalued and then maybe we see some sort of pullback.
- [42:19]
Brendan
I love it. Okay, I got a quick one. I'm going macro level. I think that. Well, we, we're kind of time traveling here, but the Fed had a meeting last week. We don't know the results of that yet. But basically I think that the storyline for the Fed cuts was at the beginning of this year, everybody was like, oh my God, there's gonna be 8, 9, 10 cuts. And then that started coming down precipitously, very fast, about three or four cuts. And so we're balancing this inflation battle. And you know, I think the Fed is dovish, but, you know, the numbers here of CPI and PPI have been, you know, kind of leveling out and pretty strong. And so I think that whatever the Fed stance is going into 20, 25, hopefully it is dovish. But I think there's going to be a lot less cuts than people thought this year into next year. And so that's something that the market is just going to need a digestion period for as a whole. Not necessarily specifically bitcoin, but it's a risk asset play. And now that tradfi is here, I think bitcoin could get caught up in that digestion period of figuring out what the Fed's going to do while we digest pie and cpi. And that could give you some, some nasty chop and some volatility where, like it might test your, you know, test your strength, especially if you're newer to the bitcoin world and you bought at 90, 100, you know, 108, whatever. Like if you start seeing some drops below that or whatnot, it might test your conviction. So that's something to keep an eye on. And we'll certainly revisit that and the rundowns weekly. We'll keep you up to date with that. But ladies and gentlemen, it is time for our 2025 Bitcoin predictions. Now, Bryce, you went first last year and Brendan did go last in one. So I think, I think we'll flip it. Brendan, you go first. I'll go in the middle. And then Bryce, you're gonna, you're gonna wrap it up the episode with our 2025 I'm Price predictions. Yeah. Brendan, what are you bringing us? The champion, the crown champion. You know, winners. Winners go first. Brendan, what do you got for us? What's that crystal ball saying? That was so right a year ago.
- [44:15]
TiVo
So this year I'm running with a new all time high of $203,000 per bitcoin. Wow. However, I think that we can end off this year at 176k.
- [44:32]
Brendan
So wait, you think you can end.
- [44:34]
TiVo
So I think we can hit it.
- [44:37]
Brendan
We're going to peak.
- [44:39]
TiVo
But then I think by the end of the year we simmer down around 176k.
- [44:44]
Bryce Paul
Okay.
- [44:44]
Brendan
Okay. So a little bit of bullish, bullishness and then we'll, we'll, you know, need to digest that. And there'd be some profit taking at that 200 level. I like it. I like it. Yeah. My, my, my base case is, is 169, 000. Nice. And, and I'm, I'm with Brendan, so I, I agree with you. You said two or three. So. Okay, we'll give a base and a bull. So my base case is 169. My bull is 233. So I think we might, I, I would love to see some absolute, you know, fomo. And I think that's bitcoin strategic reserve. Depending on, I think we can all agree on that, that that is going to fuel a fire if that gets, you know, underneath it. So. 233 bull case. But a year from now, I think we're going to be sitting at 169.
- [45:30]
Bryce Paul
Well, I'm going to blow you guys out of the water with where with my prediction. Let's go. I think we could legitimately get to a $500,000 bitcoin this year. God, I'm dead ass. I'm dead ass.
- [45:45]
Brendan
I'm gonna work.
- [45:45]
Bryce Paul
Are we retired type?
- [45:48]
TiVo
Yeah.
- [45:48]
Bryce Paul
Type man. I think.
- [45:49]
TiVo
Are we gonna be around?
- [45:52]
Brendan
Genius. You're a genius.
- [45:55]
Bryce Paul
I, I would not be surprised just to see, you know, all the stars align. And when all the stars align in bitcoin, crazy things happen. You have Every country in the world gonna want to front run, you know, the American sort of strategic reserve. You have all these different countries and companies in the different countries accumulating, you know, a strategic reserve of bitcoin on the corporate balance sheet. Because we just had the new fair Accounting standard for the fasb, right, the Fair County Standard Bulletin, which as a new way of accounting for bitcoin so now that corporations can bring it onto their balance sheets. So then you have just the, the general FOMO of, of, you know, guys like me and you and just people all around the world. I had, you know, my in laws and, and family members and family friends calling me up about, you know, all right, time to put, you know, 1 to 5% of our portfolio in crypto. And they're doing it through the ETFs, and like Bitcoin's a scarce thing, right? And there's you know, there's only Maybe, you know, 15 million of these coins that are out there that are trading, you know, 6 million or so are lost forever. So I think that if things go the way that we expect them, it's not going to stop at 200K. I mean, in the year after the having, if you look at 2013, 2017 and 2021, I mean, Bitcoin's up, you know, anywhere between, you know, 400 and, you know, 1600%. So, you know, 4x5x16x whatever it is, like, you know, I don't think it's gonna go up maybe you know, to, to a million dollars this year, But I think 500k is, is within the realm of my thinking of what's possible.
- [47:31]
Brendan
So you sold me. I'm changing my answer, if that's okay. I'm going. 233 base case. 233. I'm in. Bryce sold me. I'm in. There we go.
- [47:40]
Bryce Paul
That's what I do.
- [47:41]
Brendan
33 for TiVo. 233 for TiVo base case. I love 500. Be great. I'm all in. I'm all in on that too.
- [47:49]
TiVo
As long as me and TiVo are still going to be around if we hit 500k.
- [47:53]
Brendan
Yeah, yeah. I'm afraid you're going to retire, dude.
- [47:57]
Bryce Paul
No, man, I do it for the culture. I do it for the culture. I'm staying here forever.
- [48:02]
Brendan
It's been an amazing year for the culture. This podcast has grown, our socials have grown. The memes over on Instagram have taken over. If you're not following us on Instagram, you're missing out on some awesome, awesome culture. But guys, any final thoughts? Bryce, I know you got to get going here, but any final thoughts for the people and take, take us home now.
- [48:21]
Bryce Paul
Everybody just, you know, steady as she goes. Basically, stay confident in what you guys have discovered in crypto and you guys are here for a reason. You guys are in the right place. You guys responded to your intuition. Everybody who's at home listening to, you know, wow, I think there's something interesting here with crypto. Let me dive into it. So don't get scared out, don't get shaken out, because, you know, there, there's still a really, really bright future ahead. Don't listen to, you know, what a lot of the mainstream media says. You know, it's. The mainstream media is just gonna, just gonna try and scare you out of your position. So stay true to yourself and enjoy the ride. Stay humble.
- [49:06]
Brendan
I love it. Brendan.
- [49:09]
TiVo
I'd say, yeah. I mean, next year I'm hyped. If you can't tell, all of us are hyped. Next year is going to be a great year. If you thought the podcasts were great, they're going to be better next year. If you thought the price action was good, you're not ready and you're not prepared for what's going to come. And overall, we're looking upwards and to the right, not only for prices on the charts, but for crypto across the board. We're talking about adoption even over here when it comes to news, podcasts, reports, tutorials, you name it. It is going to be a record breaking year for crypto101 and the crypto industry as a whole. So I'm hyped up for it. I'm stoked. And the sky really is the limit here.
- [49:49]
Brendan
Yeah, pulled up to the moon. Thanks for listening. Happy holidays, Happy New Year and we'll see you soon.
- [49:56]
Bryce Paul
See you guys.
- [50:08]
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