B (38:38)
No, I think it's good. I mean from my end. You know, obviously I do like the technicals, I like the charts. But I would look back and say, hey, how have we bottomed out of previous bare markets? And I'd look for a couple of those factors. I think on the longer term the very simple one is going to be watch that 200 day moving average. That one's going to be a little bit more big picture. You won't necessarily time the bottom or catch that. Exactly. But if you zoom out to that kind of end of the last market cycle over here, you can see that hey, you know, really, since the all time highs up in here, ever since bitcoin broke down, it broke beneath the 200 day moving average, which is the yellow line. Right. So let's look at this. It came to the yellow line, broke beneath it, rejected it, spent time beneath it, beneath it, beneath it, rejected it. And this continued for the entirety of the bear market. And so what marked the reversal point? Well, I'd say you could look at two things. The big picture thing would be, hey, here we broke above the 200 day moving average, moved back down. Instead of rejecting it, we used it as support and then we moved higher afterwards. I think that is a telltale sign of a market reversal. When you break above the 200, use it as support, spend time above it and then continue to higher highs. I'd say the other two things that you could look for here is if you want to zoom in, this is going to be much less consistent. But when you start seeing bitcoin's price trading above the 20 and 50 day moving averages and you kind of see little periods of that happening here where it goes through these golden cross moments like it did here or here, or here, that signals of like, hey, this is the, the shorter term stuff of, of what's happening. But when you see these shorter term moving averages cross upwards over one another, start pointing back to the upside and then you have positive price action trading above them, using them as support for an extended period of time, leading bitcoin's price into higher high breakouts, especially above that 200. Again, I think that that's the early signs of a reversal is having bitcoin get above the short term moving averages, have them pointed back to the upside, you know, spend some time above them and then see bitcoin use higher lows and break itself out to higher highs. And once you start seeing both of those factors, it's typically something where it's like, hey, if I'm not paying attention, I need to start paying attention to what's happening on the charts. I think another thing that you could look at here off these lows is start looking for different forms of higher lows on the relative strength index as well. One of the common things that you see is higher lows on like the RSI or the macd. And so when you start seeing it bottom out deep in the oversold territory. So down in here, whenever it's deep in this oversold territory and you're looking for dips, you can tend to see that hey, when you start forming higher lows, like there's all these different forms of bullish signs that have happened since then that looks to, to tend to be the bottoming events. And so I'd look at the one day RSI or relative strength index and say, hey, I'm looking for higher swing lows around the oversold territory. And that's been a really good indicator. I do the same over here with the MACD and kind of say, hey, the histogram is these, this bar part right up in here. And then the MACD is the blue line itself. I'd be looking for higher lows on the macd. Now what have we seen in recent months? Well, it's been quite the opposite. We've Seen lower highs on the macd. So people are saying, oh well, why have we been following this and that? Well, let's look at the MACD here. You know, we have its high, lower, high, lower, high, lower, high, lower, high all the way down here. So you have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 lower highs. Well, let's start to look for the opposite of what we saw pushing us down the last year or so. You know, let's start to see the opposite here. Let's start to see the histogram or these red lines, you know, start to kind of push up higher. So you want higher highs and higher lows, but you especially want to see that on the MACD itself. And I'd say let's look at both of these signs to start reversing and pushing higher. And I don't think that that would be a bad thing other than that, you know, I think we can also look at some of the more fundamental things beyond just maybe price action or indicators or moving averages or stuff like that. But you want to just start seeing more positive price action and performance, right? You want to see Bitcoin's ultimate price kind of move back to the upside. And that was part of some of the things that we said a little bit earlier. But I think all of those are going to be important ones to watch for. One of the things I haven't shown for a long time on here, so you all are going to get a special sneak peek of this. But if you look at Bitcoin's 200 week moving average, there's two factors. Number one, it's been a beautiful buying opportunity, you know, every single time. In fact, let's go to an even more zoomed out chart here on something like, let's do this one. You can see over here that Bitcoin's 200 day moving average buying opportunity rose up. Buying opportunity. Buying opportunity actually broke below it. Beautiful. Buying opportunity. And so where are we at now? Well, we're coming right back down to that 200 week moving average right around here. And so I like to look at what bitcoin has historically done and how it's interacted with these. And I'd even go a step further and say, well, let's actually look at like the, the one week RSI or the one week relative strength index and what this has presented us. And guys, I mean, I know not all of us are technical gurus over here, but I'll give you one guess as to where bitcoin typically bottoms out at on the relative strength index. And it's, it's right, right. So you can see that. Hey guys, where does bitcoin typically top out in its market cycles? Well, I think it's up here. Where does it bottom out at? Well, I think it's right around here and it goes to show you. Where are we right now? Can it go lower? Yes. But when you're looking at the bottom of a larger move, this has been something that has largely had a full success rate. Now, is anything perfect? No, it doesn't mean it has to work with 100% success moving forward or anything like that. However, we're looking at this and saying, you know, history has been pretty consistent with this metric. You can zoom out on the weekly to the monthly and you can look at the relative strength index the same way and it's going to show you the same thing. You know, hey, tops out, bottom out, top out, bottom out, top out, bottom, top, bottom, top. You know, a little bit, maybe more inconsistent. Didn't go quite as high over in here, but the same kind of concept works where it came into the overbought territory. Now it's coming back down towards the area where a lot of these other bottoms were. And it's still semi consistent across both the weekly and month. I would look at a lot of these different things and say, hey, I want to use these as signals and I want to look at what has historically done and we can look at these past market cycles and we can see that. And so to answer the original question before I hand it back to the gents, is that where do we think the market's going from here on out? Well, I'm going to tell you the truth, I think it's going to be volatile, I think it's going to be bumpy. I think you better buckle up because it's not going to be a smooth road back. There's people out there saying, I think we're going to be back to all time highs by the end of next month or the end of the, you know, spring or whatever it may be. It seems a little bit less likely given what we just went through and all the liquidations. It's a lot do I think we're going to get back there? I do. You know, I really, really do believe that bitcoin can go to new all time highs. Ethereum go to new all time highs. I think a lot of cryptos can. Now, does that mean everything will? I don't think so. I think there's going to be cryptos that just don't make it back there, some blew up, some just are not going to be able to make it back. But there are going to be a lot of cryptos that are able to as well. And there's probably going to be new projects that replace some of the old projects that were able to succeed. You know, the way that I view this is, you know, do I want to be all in max leverage, no dry powder here, not quite yet. I saw someone in the chat box say this earlier and say, hey, I want a few more candles, I want a few more days of results, I want a few more days of data to come out and we need some more days like this to push us higher. And I would agree, you know, is a single day enough to say this is absolutely the reversal? No, I mean we're coming off of multi year lows yesterday after one of the biggest drop that we've seen in years. We need more data. And I think that that person's right. So now I'm saying, all right, I'm cautiously optimistic. I think I'm very long term bullish about these zones. But at the same time, you know, I want to do some dollar cost averaging. I want to get my hands on some large caps, maybe things that are a little bit more safe and get some exposure for long term around these areas. But I think bitcoin can absolutely make it back up there. And you'd look at the chart here and I would have a hard time having someone argue with me and say, hey, this is the last decade of price performance. We've seen much worse than a 50% pullback in the past and it has never been such a decapitating factor that we've never been able to recover before. And I would say the fundamentals are even better now, more so than ever before as well. So gents, I'll pass it back to you guys, but that's my opinion on where we're going next. Any thoughts from you all about, you know, maybe what could be next for the markets beyond just it being. It's going to be bumpy and stuff, but I think ultimately crypto will recover.
