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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundon: Bitcoin Supply is SHRINKING & Dave Portnoy Takes Over Meme Coin World w/ JailStool
00:45:34
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- [00:00]
Brendan
Foreign welcome back to the crypto market rundown where we talk about everything that's happening in the great world of crypto, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And man, we got another action packed episode in store for all of you today. We have the crypto market consolidating while the supply of bitcoin on exchanges is shrinking. We have very hot CPI and inflation data coming out affecting the crypto markets. We have JPOW actually Talking about cryptocurrencies, CBDCs and so much more. We want to talk about some big updates that are happening in the altcoin market specifically around Uniswap, LIDO and E Defy. And of course there was a big old meme coin meme coin that took over super bowl weekend that we got to talk about as well. So welcome back everyone. It's good to have you here. We got tons of topics that we're looking forward to talking about. So all that we ask is that if you like the content that we make, hit that like button, hit that subscribe button, leave us a review. If you're on a platform like Spotify or Apple Podcasts, and if you want to see all the different video counterparts, all those articles and videos and charts that we reference on the screen, then you got to go over to our YouTube channel. It's the Crypto 101 podcast on YouTube. Check us out there and that's where you're going to get all of the videos and articles that we're referencing on screen. So, yeah, I mean, man, with that being said, TiVo, how are things on your end? You're quite the traveler at the moment and, you know, appreciate you tuning in.
- [01:45]
TiVo
Yeah, man, happy to be here as always. But you know, don't ever say I don't love the crypto one on one podcast family because 12 hours ago I was in Hawaii, took a red eye, landed in Salt Lake City. Like an hour of sleep, couple cups of coffee here and apologies for my sound not being as crispy. Don't have the mic on the road with me during this trip. But yeah, lots of a lot to talk about. So didn't, you know, didn't want to miss out. We're here and I've definitely noticed the podcast family's been growing. I know we've been doing our lives. We're not live today because I'm on the road, so I think the connection is not good enough. But we've had that YouTube, you know, the, the live family there chiming in. We had a bunch of comments coming in through Spotify, so shout out to J.M. brew, Darren Moore, Tx. A lot of awesome stuff starting to, you know, new people starting to flow in here with all the price action we've seen. So welcome to everybody, new and old and yeah, lots of COVID today.
- [02:48]
Brendan
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, let's just go ahead and kick things off with price action, right? I mean, last week for the, really, for the past couple of weeks we've come in here, we've had some sort of crazy situation happen over the weekend. The markets were gapping downwards this week and really like the whole past week we saw just consolidation. We actually saw things mellow out for a bit. Bitcoin altcoins, pretty much the entire crypto market seeing a little bit of a bleed to the, to the downside, but no kind of crazy move again. We really, really kind of mellowed out from what we've seen in recent weeks. You know, just last week we saw bitcoin bottom out at 91k and then the very same day end up as high as almost 103k. So we had this crazy just like hundred around 11, $12,000 move, pushing back above 100k. And now what we're doing is in where we're in much more of a confined range, anywhere from maybe like 98k on the top end and around 94, 95k on the bottom end. But you know, if we throw up the charts and we actually take a look at this, you know, we can kind of see what's happening in a little bit more detail. So let's take a look at bitcoin first. I mean, this is that range that I was talking about and I'm going to zoom us in because we have the macro range, right, with around 110k as resistance, 90k as support. And then this is that much more closely knit range that we were talking about over the last week, coming out of a piece of volatility right in here. So we're continuing to just chop around from 90k to 110, from 90k to 110, then back to 90k. And that's kind of where we're closer to at the moment. And we came into last week's segment saying, hey, it's just punch after punch, Black Swan after Black Swan event. What is going to be the thing to push crypto below 90k? And I, excuse me. And I said, I don't know what it's going to be. I'm not sure if anything can. Well, now we're looking at it and maybe the answer to that is economic uncertainty around inflation. This is something that we saw about two months ago kind of peep its head in and it caused some fear, uncertainty and doubt. Now we're seeing it come back around and we're going to talk about that just a little bit later on in the episode. But you're noticing that 90k is being tested a lot more than 110k, right? I mean we've tested this rough area around 108, 109,000 only twice. And we've tested 90k about eight separate times over the last three to four months. The cool thing here is that 90k is held for a while. We have come in here November, December, January, now February and we continue to bounce off of this. However, it is raising some concerns that maybe we are, you know, really weakening this level because of how often and how frequent we're testing it. You know, are we wearing this support area out? And so I think that's something to keep an eye on because any kind of a breakdown could certainly lead us probably a little bit closer back to maybe like probably a little bit closer back to maybe like 80 to 75k which is just a little bit lower over here. So it's definitely something to keep on your mind, I think, you know, so long as bitcoin doesn't break below 90k with authority, you got to stay bullish. You know, that is the primary support that has held for so long and it's something that we're going to continue to keep an eye on. Other big things here are, you know, bitcoin dominance being sky high. Last Monday we saw this hit a new multi year high. I believe that this was the highest point that we have seen since around January or February of 2021. So just again, multi year highs for bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin tends to be outperforming the rest of the crypto market and that's primarily coming through it, just preserving value while altcoins continue to bleed. You know, we can see that ethereum over here slowly bleeding over the last week. Solana holding value, a little bit of bleed activity. Same sort of thing with xrp. And now what we're starting to see is that after that big move that we had to the downside over the course of early last week and last weekend, now we're starting to see a bit of consolidation in the altcoins. You know, we're seeing A lot of them start to kind of hover around this area for the last maybe four or five days or so. And no matter what chart you're looking at, again we're seeing kind of this little rounding bottom action. So we're going to be keeping a close eye on this for many of these altcoins as they continue to kind of, you know, hopefully hold this level and find a nice little rounding bottom and are able to push higher. It's a big thing that we're looking for kind of moving forward. But you know, beyond that there's not a ton of coins that saw any kind of a crazy move to the upside. We had the Barit chain launch, which was I believe last Thursday. Yeah, last Thursday. And so it's been on the market for almost a week. It's initially, and this isn't maybe the right chart to show this, but it initially pumped all the way up to around 15, 16, 17 bucks and then sold off. What was this like over 70, 75% to the downside. And now it's hovering back around five bucks. I know that this is something that I've been asked a lot of questions about. Again, we'll have to see what happens with this project. A little bit newer, but on a lot of people's radar as now it is sitting right around a half a billion dollar market cap, right around 5 to 600 million. You know, the one outlier that I've noticed over here, before I turn it back to you, TiVo is, you know, mantra has kind of been shocking me. It's been leading the market in terms of performance. It's coming off of a new all time high just under a week ago, last Friday. And that's not something that we're seeing from the vast majority of other altcoins. You know, there are a couple of of outliers here. I think with like Cardano here seeing a nice little pump over the last couple days and also with Litecoin being a little bit of a stronger performer in the last couple of days, both getting about a 30% pump. And if you measure from the bottom of the market that they had last week to the top of their move, it was around a 60% move from top to bottom or from bottom to top. So definitely, you know, there are outliers out there that are seeing some pretty nice price action. So I think altcoins are still worth paying attention to. But just looking at it from a risk versus reward standpoint, there is a little bit of more choppiness happening, maybe even a little bit more red in the market when it comes to the traditional altcoins as opposed to some of these larger caps like Bitcoin and you know, maybe even Solana, XRP and a few others.
- [09:25]
TiVo
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- [10:31]
Dave Portnoy
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- [10:41]
TiVo
One of those things.
- [10:42]
Dave Portnoy
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- [11:01]
Jerome Powell
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- [12:00]
Brendan
So all things to kind of consider, I think, you know, with all of this kind of going to the side, there was one clear winner over the weekend and that comes from jail stool. So I'm going to pass it off to you, TiVo. I know that this one kind of hits home with you and you got some history there.
- [12:19]
TiVo
Yeah. So for those who are newer to the show or don't know, because we don't talk about it a ton. I used to work at Barstool, so Dave Portnoy was my, my boss for, you know, several years and awesome time there. Love Dave, love the company. And we, we've kind of all in, in, in. I know Brian and Joe from our momentum moneymakers and our, you know, who love the meme coins have just been saying, like, God, we want Dave to launch a meme coin. We know it'll run. We know it'll run. And he does a segment called Davey Day Traders where, you know, it's kind of started out in stock market stuff and then bleeds into crypto and now meme coins and whatnot. And so over the weekend he, he learned how to trade meme coins. So his guy, his, I believe maybe Austin taught him or somebody on his team taught him how to, you know, hop on whether it was, you know, moonshot or Jupiter or phantom wallet. And he started, he started slinging meme coins and he learned the power of, you know, you know, whether you like it or not, he would tweet, you know, a meme coin. I think one of the first ones he did was Josh Allen, mvp. And you know, he tweets it and, and then it rockets up, you know, 10,000%, whatever. And then he pulls the money out and he brags on, you know, Twitter that he just, you know, turned 5,000 into $80,000. So then everybody got mad at him for rugging and he was, you know, barking back and forth at everybody. And so that was kind of day one. The summary of it was Dave, Dave was, you know, for better or worse, kind of, you know, leading the charge on a couple of these meme coins and making profit. But like, that's, that's the name of the game, you know, I don't think he's doing anything wrong. We, we've seen everything from, you know, what that, that clip of that eight year old, you know, Rugging people on pump dot fun or whatever. So, you know, he was, he was just having his fun. And you know, obviously the meme coin market is, is the wild west. So then the next day he goes and I think he, somebody sent him jail stool or his wallet. He stumbled across it and it made him laugh because it was, you know, a picture of him buying bars and obviously insinuating like, you know, you're going to go to jail for what you're doing with meme coins. And so he, he buys it and puts it, you know, up like, you know, jail. So he went, he went the other route. Instead of just tweeting about it, he kind of air quotes here, folks. So he backed the coin. He had nothing to do with creating it. He wasn't the developer or anything like that. He thought it was funny. And he basically said, he goes, I'm gonna buy this, I'm gonna hold it. And. And he kept his word. And so at that point, you know, I know our momentum moneymaker guys, Brian was in on it. I was in on it. We were kind of. I was, I was texting with Brian. I'm like, hey, did you see this? He's like, yeah, I'm looking into it. And I was like, all right. I was traveling, so I wasn't locked in as I wish I was, but you know, I threw a little bit of money into it at like a penny. I think Brian, Brian gave out his alert at about an 80 million dollar market cap, around a penny probably as well. And then it shot up, you know, again, long story short, shot up to about 20 cents, which was about a $200 million market cap, I think. And Dave's making a ton of comments tweeting about it. And then it did crash back down to earth. I think it's trading about $0.06 now, but pretty, pretty much a round trip for. I think it went 20 back down to like 3. Now it's back up to 6. But an interesting thing. So Dave, Dave being behind something is an interesting thing I think in the meme coin game. First off, shout out to momentum moneymakers and Brian, you know, we always had them on last couple weeks and trying to promote them and their skill set. You know, they nailed this one like they do so many others. But Dave is interesting to me because he's not like any other celebrity I think that I've seen do do mean coins where, you know, whether Hawk 2 is made the number one example of somebody who isn't involved in it and probably getting led down a path by a group of people or somebody like maybe Jason Jerulo who's just kind of doing it to rug people or for the money, like Dave. Whenever Dave does something like he's really involved because he's so smart with how he handles his brand, his business and his content. Like he's really, really involved. And so if he was to ever create his own meme coin and launch it, and he's talked about doing that as well, he would be really involved with it. And then with this jail stool thing, he's basically done exactly what he said. And now, now he's, because he's a genius of the content game, he's turned this jail stool into content. Like he, at one point, I think when it was up to 20 cents, I don't know how much he put in, I think he put in a hundred thousand dollars, don't quote me on this, but he put a hundred thousand dollars and, and I know it went up at some point. It was 6 million. He was like 6 million in profit. And, and he's had, he took over super bowl weekend. He won super bowl weekend, as Dave Fortoy does a lot of times. He wins super bowl weekend, but he won super bowl weekend. And, and all he's saying is I'm not going to sell, I'm not selling until this thing hits, you know, maybe 500, maybe a billion. And then I think he switched recently to be like, never mind, I'm not selling until it's a billion. And if it gets to 2 billion, I'm going to throw a yacht party for all the holders. He's pulling like a Michael Saylor type thing. So he's, he's all invested in the content. And I, I, as somebody, never personal financial advice, but I believe him when he says that. I don't think he would go against his word, number one, because it's not the right thing to do. And I think he, he has, you know, a sense of that. But number two, it's great content for him. So he's winning either way. Like the $6 million to him is, yeah, $6 million is a lot of money probably to anybody. But at the same time this is, this, this is a guy that's throwing million dollar bets on Super Bowls and individual games. So you know, Dave Porto's got plenty of money. So I think, I think he's, he's, he's involved, he really likes the space, so it's something to track. And I, I pulled like a one minute clip. I'm going to cut it down but 20 seconds here, and I'm gonna play it. But he was making good points. He was saying, you know, I. You know, when I was winning, you all were mad at me and yelling at me that I rugged. And now I'm telling you I'm not gonna sell. And I ha. I held up my version of it. So then why is the coin price going down? Why are you guys selling? I thought we were all going to the moon together. And he's trying to prove this point that everybody's out here just trading, trying to get their money. And if he's not going to rug, somebody, somebody else is, which is probably the truth. So let's check it. Dave, if you don't know Dave, he's very animated, very entertaining. But let's check in on Dave about jail stool.
- [18:53]
Dave Portnoy
What did I tank again? Koi faint. I don't tank anything. I. What did I take? I'll go look. Bros like bro tanked it. What did I possibly. This is why I don't like it. What could I possibly tank? I've been the most part. That's why I get mad at the trenches. You guys are defined and selling news instead of being holded. I. If you're an actual believer in jail. So I am saying the most positive you could possibly say it did tank. What you. This is crazy. I'm sitting here saying, I will never turn my back on jail. Still 100 grand for jail stool commercial. Fuck it. Next time I'm on fucking Varney on Fox, which I'm on all the time, I'll say fucking jail stool. Like, you idiots. You. You want me to abandon? I won't. I won't let you win. The people are selling. I won't do it. Rapid.
- [19:51]
TiVo
He's all in. Yeah, he's in the trenches on jail stool. I'm like, he's keeps buying more, which is fascinating. He keeps buying the dips. They put up a T shirt and sweatshirt for sale. I believe he said all the profits to that. You know, he's going to get all the profits, you know, after the cost of the sweatshirts and dump it all into jail stool. So I think it's a fascinating case study and something to watch as we've seen this meme coin market take off and grow. And you know what makes something like chill guy pop off or fartcoin and whatnot. They all have, like, a story behind it in some way. And this is, you know, in my opinion, one of the godfathers of Internet entertainment. Like, I don't think you could really tell the story of social media without talking about Dave Portnoy. That's my opinion. Obviously I have a little bias, but yeah, it's something that we're going to keep watching here and stay apprised to because I think it's an interesting development to now get him in the trenches and see where that goes.
- [20:54]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, the meme coin space just continues to grow and there's always something going on over there. There's always something going on in the meme coin space. So I think it's something to watch, listening closely to and, you know, who knows, you're just, you know, one opportunity away from a crazy story like that one. But, you know, kind of transitioning things over to the traditional side. What we've seen here recently is a big shift in ETF applications. You know, there's now a handful of new ones that are coming out. We're starting to see Dogecoin applications, Litecoin applications and Cardano applications believe primarily from. From grayscale. But upon this news, the likelihood of getting, you know, these Cardano and Litecoin ETFs approved are rising. And I saw our buddies over at Bloomberg Intelligence actually saying that Litecoin is, has as high as a 90% chance of approval, XRP sitting in around 65%. I've seen people say Cardano is around 80 to 90% and they're even saying that a Dogecoin ETF is as high as 75 per cent. So we have all these Altcoin ETFs that are floating around out there, you know, obviously off of this news. Litecoin and Cardano are crushing it. We've already kind of factored in the news for Solana and xrp. Right. We've known that they've been kind of at the forefront of the ETF game for a while now, so those aren't seeing any kind of crazy move to the upside. But here we are kind of looking on to the rest of this year saying, hey, there could be a number of altcoin ETFs coming our way and it looks like the top five contenders for that is going to be Litecoin, Cardano, XRP, Solana and potentially even Dogecoin in no specific order there. So, yeah, I mean, something to definitely track. You know, we know what kind of a catalyst that this has been in previous runs. You know, looking at Bitcoin, looking at Ethereum, they tend to have kind of a big pump up until the actual event. Then after the event, they, they tend to get a little Bit of a pullback and maybe see some downside, but, you know, who knows? I think either way, we're going to see some volatility coming out from this kind of news. And I think it's just another thing for the average person to keep an eye on if you haven't been watching this already. The other big thing here, TiVo, is that, you know, and we used to talk about this a lot, and we haven't circled back to it in a while, which is why I'm glad that we're touching base this episode. But bitcoin supply here, specifically bitcoin supply on exchanges, is and has been shrinking for quite some time. So if we go ahead and I'll throw this up on my end, but if we go ahead and we actually take a look at this, we can see that it's actually pretty shocking. So here we are. We have bitcoins exchange reserves, or bitcoin, just supply on exchanges. And if you go back to 2022 over here, I mean, it has been falling and falling and falling. Over here, it was as high as around three and a half million from for the total reserves. And what have we seen? Well, in 2022, it fell. In 2023, a lot of sideways action, but again, kind of going down 2024, continuing to fall down 2025, it's plummeting at this point all the way down to around 2.5 million. So what does this mean? What does it mean to have Bitcoin's exchange reserves and the supply on exchanges shrinking? Well, this means that it is becoming more rare. There are less and less Bitcoin essentially in the supply. And as the supply shrinks and demand grows, we have to think about the most fundamental basic law of economics, which is supply and demand. So if we have a shrinking supply and a growing demand, that ultimately has a positive impact on price. Right? Because if the supply is shrinking but, you know, the same or maybe even more people want to get their hands on it, well, then it has to appreciate in value because of this principle. So, you know, no matter kind of how we look at this chart, Bitcoin's reserves are shrinking. Not only is this becoming harder to get your hands on in terms of the happen, the happening, or, you know, all these other fat factors, if we're just looking at the exchange reserves, it's showing us this as well. So bitcoin is becoming harder to mine. It's becoming more rare on exchanges. We know that a lot of bitcoin has been removed from the supply, put into the ETFs, that's gobbling a lot of long term market share. And no matter which way you look at this again, bitcoin is becoming more rare over here. And you have to imagine that that is going to have a positive impact on price. So it's something that I'm keeping a pretty close eye on over here and I saw an article that we can probably even throw on the screen that just briefly talks about it. But they're saying the same thing. They're saying, hey, there's only 2.5 million bitcoin left on crypto exchanges. This could signal a supply shock. And this is the lowest that we've seen in years on exchanges. So they're looking at this saying, hey, this could cause a supply shock if this trend continues for another two years. I mean, imagine this, this continues. And in 2022 we saw it at 3.5 million, you know, well, what if, you know, you know, two, three years from now it's at 1.5 million, 1 million? Well, I think that if that happens, then price essentially has to move up as it gets more rare and there's just going to be less and less people selling. So yeah, I mean it's all fascinating, it's all pretty interesting. You know, they have a pretty cool article over here from Coin Graph or Coin Telegraph that talks about this and they show some other charts and you know, how this has impacted the price. But yeah, I mean it's, it's fascinating. It is fascinating. And if this continues to shrink, it gets me excited as a holder.
- [27:08]
TiVo
Yeah. And I don't know if you have any thoughts on this. Just two things that came to mind that I don't, I don't have the answers to right now, but I'd be interesting to learn them. If you have a thought on it or research into it would be with the ETFs kind of looking into in kind redemption, meaning that if you have the etf, you could actually trade that in for real bitcoin. Meaning that the ETF holders would have to have kind of a one for one count of bitcoin. And then also the fact that the banks are trying to be holders of bitcoin, which means that, you know, somebody like, somebody that would that lead to more bitcoin coming off the exchanges because a person who has, you know, a couple bitcoin, but maybe they don't feel totally comfortable with a wallet. Right. They're like, ah, you know, I don't want to, you know, keep, you know, half a million dollars with A passcode that I might lose, but they might want to put it in their bank instead of keeping it on their exchange. So then that that stuff starts to flow off of the exchanges. That was something that came to my head that thought, you know, with the new regulation it might lead to even more bitcoin coming off of exchanges. Yeah.
- [28:14]
Brendan
And I think that's fair. I think that if banks get their hands on it again, I, I can't imagine them being short term holders. So they're going to be long term holders. And if people are allowed to exchange their, their Bitcoin for maybe ETF shares, I think that that could be another really cool thing. You know, I personally would like that. I'm a trader, I like to do all sorts of cool stuff. If I have the option to exchange some bitcoin and then maybe sell calls and, and sell puts and create options on my shares, like I think that that increases liquidity and it increases trading activity and it could ultimately be a pretty cool thing for, for all investors. So I'd be happy to see both personally and especially the bank front I think would just continue to contribute to what we're already seeing in terms of the supply shrinking.
- [29:11]
TiVo
Yeah, no bullish stuff. And then kind of some in the news today was some cpi, CPI news came out, came out on inflation and sadly running, running a little hotter than expected. So you know, whatever the estimates were, let's see we have them pull it up. Yeah, so the estimate was, was hotter so jumped 0.5% in one month. That's the largest increase since August 2023. I know the futures market really didn't like that at least in stock market wise. Right. So you know, a little bit of a nasty red open. But bitcoin holding, like we showed you the charts earlier, Bitcoin holding strong. People are buying gold at record levels. Obviously Bitcoin's had a hell of a year, hell of a multi year run and there's, there's this constant debate of like all right, is, is, is this a true hedge of inflation? Is it a future technology? It kind of, you know, embrace debate on you know, whether it's both or what side of the spectrum you, you stand on when it comes to bitcoin. But a lot of people do considered risk assets. So you know, if inflation's higher, risk assets tend to go down. Like you know, on this type of news you'll see your, you know, I guess semiconductors and super, you know, supercomputer, those supercomputer stocks that you know, had a Crazy run into the end of the beginning of the year are going to go down. But yeah, if crypto as a whole kind of had its, I feel like it's holding up pretty strong in these numbers. And again, this was just released, you know, Wednesday morning. So, you know, I guess there's still time to digest it. But what are your thoughts on the inflation read here, Brendan?
- [30:57]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean it's definitely coming in hotter than expected, which throws a wrench into a lot of things. Right. The new administration has been very adamant that they want rates to go down. But if inflation is coming in hotter than expected, it kind of counteracts that. Upon seeing this news and it coming in hotter, we saw, you're right, the risk market sell off, the futures all sold off pretty steeply, over 1%. We saw crypto also take a bit of a, of a tumble when this happened. Bitcoin breaking below $95,000. And this really stems from the idea that the Fed's goal here is 2%. So if we're going in the wrong direction, you know, that might make them a little bit more hawkish, that might make them a little bit more concerned and firm with their stance. And I think that's what people are scared about now. Ultimately we've already started recovering here. It's nothing too, too crazy in terms of the numbers either way. Again, not what we were expecting or maybe even looking forward to, but with inflation, you know, kind of getting to the point where it is now. You know, we saw the DXY or the US Dollar currency index climbing this morning. We also saw the 10 year yields also climbing back to the upside. And so that was causing a lot of these risk assets to, to, to fall here. So I mean, I don't think this is anything too, too crazy. Again, I've said this before, TiVo, I don't think an inflation rate of 3% is awful now. You know, obviously we're pushing up a little bit here. We never want to see that, that trend shift back to the upside. But the Fed has this adamant stance that it's going to get down to a 2.0 and we'll see, we'll see. Again, you know, do we want inflation high? No, but it's 3, you know, 3.1, 3.3% awful also. No, especially not when we're coming off 10, which is absurdly high. You know, coming back down to a norm of the low to mid 3% range just isn't awful in today's world. And I know that, you know, that maybe there's boomers out there that are saying 3% ridiculous. I'm just saying after everything that we've gone through, a mid to low 3% inflation rate really isn't awful. Now, can we work on that over time? Yeah, but I don't think a 2% inflation rate is something that we're just going to get overnight unless something drastic happens. Unless whether it's the Fed or something else does something insane. I think a 2% inflation goal is great to have in theory, but I think it's practically a lot harder to get to than either the Fed's making it out to be or people make it out to be. I think that's it's a lofty goal. It's like saying, hey, you know, can bitcoin reach a million dollars before the end of this year? Yeah, it's possible. There's catalysts that are there. Maybe we can do some of the right things to kind of put us in that position. But, you know, is that a lofty goal still to get Bitcoin to $1 million before the end of the year? Yeah, it's a lofty goal and I think the 2% inflation rate is also a pretty freaking lofty goal for the Fed to get anytime soon. So, yeah, that's the way that I look at this.
- [34:12]
TiVo
Yeah, I got a couple of stats here for you. Stats and I guess maybe an opinion, but stats first. So a reason to not maybe be as concerned about inflation as a whole is. And this, I think I've said this on the podcast before, but the three largest drivers of inflation since 2019 are shelter number one. Shelter number two is auto insurance, number three is used new cars. So that's 60% of the overall CPI basket. And you know, shelter is not necessarily going to fall like a rock by any means, but I think interest rates, where they are, especially the 10 year, you know, is going to hold that. And you know, obviously used used cars specifically and new cars, you know, coming out of the pandemic was just a supply chain issue for that type of inflation. So that should be kind of coming down as well over time. And then I guess so that's one reason that I think like, yeah, you just gotta let it, it's time, right? It's gotta work out the system, it's gotta flush out the system. The second thing I think is kind of politically, so, you know, you have all these people on the Fed and you know, whether it's, you know, the University of Michigan survey, which is like an economic survey about inflation, there's Obviously, a lot of opinions, and I think that, you know, you kind of gotta block out the noise and just read the data. So today is an example of a data point. And it might not be the data point you want when looking at infl, but now you're going to have a bunch of people spouting opinions off. And a lot of those opinions might be fueled politically, whether they like Trump or whether they don't like Trump, you know, Democrat or Republican. If you're a Republican, you're saying, you know, oh, this isn't our fault. We got to, you know, work harder. Is the data this, data that, and they're going to spin it how they want to. And then if you're a Democrat and you don't like Trump, you're going to say, you know, you know, oh, this is a disaster. Inflation's coming back and Trump's an inflationary president and the tariffs are going to cause more inflation. So there's just going to be a lot of noise around it. You know, I think either way, overreaction to the downside or overreaction to the upside when it comes to market pricing is probably something that, you know, if that happens, the market's not usually totally right. So something to keep an eye out for if there's any crazy, you know, downward movement on this type of data. But I think it's an important point to kind of stick to the data points and realize that a lot of the talking heads that you're going to see talk about this type of stuff have their own political angle on how they kind of phrase it.
- [36:45]
Brendan
Yeah, no, I think it's a great point. It's definitely worth paying attention to, and there's all sorts of factors that go into this, so we're going to continue to cover it. We got a lot of, we got a lot more CPI reports that are going to come out this year. So we'll continue to pay close attention to it and how that affects the, the, the crypto markets. But in the meantime, you know, what we've seen here, TiVo, is a big shift when it comes to, to projects and updates that they're putting out. Right. We started to notice that the regulatory environment was easing, and that's something that we were expecting. It's a much more pro crypto administration here in the states. And because of this, we're starting to see projects come out and do stuff that they didn't previously do. Whether they weren't able to do that or they didn't want to put out those updates, you know, we don't know exactly, but now, you know, I don't think it's coincidence that all these big crypto foundations and projects are putting out all these big new updates, you know, all of a sudden. Right. You know, the two ones here that are happening this week, or rather just happened, is on the Uni Swap side of things, Uni Swap launched their own chain called Un Uni Chain. And this is a big debut. And I saw analysts talking about how this thing could be a huge, you know, factor when it comes to Ethereum as a chain and what kind of like activity increases this could ultimately cause to kind of happen. The other side is that we also have Lido, you know, like one of the biggest staking based projects that's out there. They focus on liquid staking, derivatives and making staking to a number of different chains, but you know, primarily Ethereum a lot easier for the individual. So both of these involved with E Defy and under the kind of regulatory easing that we've been seeing, they're both saying, hey, we're going to pump out these new updates, we're going to pump out new features, we're going to have all this new stuff available that we haven't done before. And Lido is focus focusing a little bit more here on the institutional side and even trying to grow an institutional audience with the Lido v3 update that's happening over here. So you know, there's, there's a lot of big things. I mean people have talked about profit sharing and all these other things happening inside of the Uni Swap ecosystem and a lot of these other Defi focused projects. And I think what we're seeing is just the first stages of a bigger shift where we're going to get all sorts of updates. And we were just Talking about how Avalanche 9000 is having a big update. We were just talking with the, I think it was the say team and how they were make, going to make some big updates. I mean all these projects now are pumping out these, these big huge updates. And again, I don't think it's a coincidence. I think what we're going to see here is a continuation of this. I think projects are now going to be able to do things that they've never done before. And I think that there's going to be a lot more innovation just because people aren't as afraid of the SEC as they used to be, which again, as a crypto native, I like that, I like to have new kinds of innovation. Again, are some things going to go wrong Are there going to be some bad things that happen? Yes. But, you know, we see that happen in all stages. You can't look at like Silicon Valley bank going under and being like, oh, you know, we got to step back and we can't get innovative anymore and we have to place more restrictions. You can't look at the 2008 housing crisis and say, oh, you know, we got to reinvent, you know, certain parts of the system, you know, in growth phases. Unfortunately, there are bad actors, there are bad things that happen. The thing here is, is that, you know, hopefully we can benefit coming out of those, out of the dot com bubble with so with like a completely new way of looking at the entire industry. And that's what we do. You know, you look at the Internet today after the dot com bubble, it's a different world. And hopefully we can kind of look back, you know, 10, 20 years from now and, you know, the whole crypto and blockchain world has forever changed as well because of what we can see here over the next couple of years. So lots of things to keep an eye on, lots of new projects that are kicking things or existing and new projects that are kicking things off hot. You know, the last thing that I want to leave everyone with is that we got a big note from Jerome Powell, our good old buddy J. Powell that we've referenced a lot here in this episode. But Jay Powell was talking about CBDCs and kind of the, the general crypto space here in recent days. And he was just asked, I believe yesterday, on February 11th of 2025, if the US will ever consider having a central bank digital currency. And we got a clip for everyone that we want to go ahead and run. So let's go and run that. I think it's like 20 seconds long.
- [41:38]
TiVo
Something that concerns me a lot is the idea that we would even look like China in any way. So can I have your commitment that as long as you're the chairman of the Federal Reserve System, that we will never have a central bank digital currency?
- [41:54]
Dave Portnoy
Yes.
- [41:55]
TiVo
Thank you for that. I think that's extremely important and makes me very happy to hear you say that.
- [42:01]
Brendan
And that's a win for crypto enthusiasts around the world. You know, that's been a big fear for people is like, hey, could we do this? Could we not do this? What does that mean for freedom and other things? And with him coming out and just saying we are not doing this, very plainly saying, will you do this? You know, can you, can you promise us that you won't do this? And he just gives a flat answer of yes, which is pretty rare to get in politics. Like in politics. Right. Usually get these big work around answers of like, maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. And they leave it open ended. But this was just a very simple one word yes. You know, you don't have to worry about this happening. So I view it as a positive here. Chivo. And again, I'm just, I'm stoked. I'm stoked for what we have in the future. Again, are we seeing some choppy price action here? Yes. But looking at the bigger picture, I don't know how you can't be excited when you're looking at all these catalysts. Again, the, the number of positive catalysts here so greatly outweigh the negative ones that it's hard to come in and be a massive bear.
- [43:01]
TiVo
Yeah. And I'm going to add another cherry on top for the people again, another thing from our friend Jerome Pal. I had just had Twitter on, in the background like on one of my monitors when we were recording. And see he's testifying today. So that what we just played for you was day one of him testifying. Today's day two. So this just dropped like 20 minutes ago. I pulled it and it's him talking about banks being able to serve crypto. So let's see what. I haven't even listened to it. So let's see what Jay Powell just said. Hot off the wire here.
- [43:35]
Brendan
Yes.
- [43:36]
E
So first I would say there are really two things that are happening. One is banks are serving crypto customers and we don't want to get in the way of banks serving perfectly legal customers. As long as they understand the risks and that sort of thing. We don't want to single out any particular.
- [43:53]
Brendan
Are you speaking to custody?
- [43:56]
E
Well, custody is more. The second thing is undertaking activities on their own. Right. And in that case, I do think it's appropriate to, you know, as usual as bank supervisors, make sure that we understand, and banks understand the risks that are involved in the activity that they're taking inside an insured depository. On the other hand, you don't want to go too far. You know, I think there were a bunch of disasters, as we all remember. And, you know, we don't want to. And we were reacting to some extent to those. You don't want to go so far as to, you know, overplay your hand on that. So I think we need to be mindful that many of these activities can very well be done inside of banks. And custody may well Be one of them. In fact, in Fed regulated banks, there are lots of crypto activities happening. Now. They've just happened under a framework where we made sure that the bank understood and we understood exactly what they're doing.
- [44:49]
Brendan
So, yeah, I mean, it looks all positive to me. They're saying, hey, we don't want to get in the way of banks dealing with cryptocurrencies. It's a legal asset. This is their right, let them do it. And he's saying, you know, hey, we want to be smart about it. Right? We want to do it right. Which I think is okay. Right? We, we don't want another FTX happening, so we want to protect against that. But I think allowing banks to work with these assets and allowing people to go through banks to, to get access to them, I'm all for it. Increase exposure.
- [45:19]
TiVo
Yeah, dude, really interesting. Sounded very confident on those answers. Like he actually, you know, had the thought and thought them out. So again, I, I think a point you nailed a couple minutes ago was there's a huge discrepancy right now between traders and builders. And if you kind of take the builder side of it, who are, you know, exciting and launching, you know, new updates and then you have the, you know, basically the SEC and now the law, the legal side behind crypto, which has never been done before, you know, that's two checks for being excited and being bullish about the industry. Whereas traders thought, or, you know, traders think with, you know, what they look on their account balance and you know, the, the overwhelming majority definitely thought Trump's in number go up. You know, altcoin season comes now and you know, they've been, obviously, you know, we've all, we've all felt it a little bit like, you know, a little bit of a tease. You know, definitely for the last year, since last February, everybody's been kind of chomping at the bit to get a true old season going. But, you know, we gotta zoom out and see the bigger picture and, and I don't know, you know, I think we both agree that the bigger picture looks bright and the future, the future looks bright and, and positive.
- [46:34]
Brendan
Yeah. 100, man. I mean, there's lots of things to, to look forward to in the remainder of this year. So we're going to continue to report on it, we're going to continue to keep everyone in the loop. And again, if you like the content that we put out there completely free, putting together a list of everything that's happening in the world of crypto every single week and presenting it to you in ideally under an hour in most episodes. Then all that we ask here is that you hit the like button, you hit the subscribe button, you give us a follow and you check out maybe some of our other socials. If you really, really like it on YouTube, we've got a great place where you can go over and find all sorts of tutorials and podcasts and rundowns and you name it. We're talking about everything that's happening in the market over there. We have videos coming out almost every, every single day. We have shorts that you can watch all completely for free. And if you want to get plugged into a much deeper crypto community, we have that available over here at Crypt Nation where you can join a community of thousands of like minded individuals, bounce your ideas, what interests you, trades, you name it and you know, get feedback and talk to other people who are like minded. So there's a lot of great stuff that we have going on over here. We hope hope that that all of you join us. We hope to see all of you again next week. But in the meantime, stay safe out there. Happy trading and we'll see all of you at the same time, same place next week.
- [48:09]
Jerome Powell
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