Loading summary
Transcript59 lines
- [00:00]
Brendan
Foreign welcome back to your weekly crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the crypto markets from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And this week we already have bitcoin pushing back to all time highs. But I'll tell you what, altcoins are actually outperforming bitcoin on at the moment and I know that that's hard to believe, especially as bitcoin is pushing back to the highs. So we got a lot to talk about. There's a lot of catalyst that is pushing the crypto market back towards the upside and causing altcoins to really accelerate in the price action that we've been seeing here. So not only are we going to talk about both bitcoin and the altcoin market, Michael Saylor is getting more bullish than ever, which again is shifting things into a further high gear from what we're already used to. Paul Tudor Jones is a famous investor. He's very bullish on bitcoin. Altcoin season looks like it's right around the corner. The crypto ETFs from both the bitcoin and the Ethereum front are just on fire. They're breaking records, they're breaking their own records and they are seeing a ton of inflows. It also looks like we're going to get a whole new handful of altcoin ETFs beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. We're going to talk about that in just a bit here as well. Beyond this, we're getting all sorts of positive tradfi news. Looks like trade deals are coming in. Mom and dad have mended the rift between them between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The circle IPO absolutely crushed it over the last week and man, there's so much more to talk about. So we're excited to be here, we're excited to be able to go through all of this and of course I can't do it without my good buddy tivo. Tivo. Welcome back.
- [02:02]
TiVo
Thanks. Thanks man. We had a couple technical difficulties this week. A clean start this week, which is always great to see and yeah, as always, a lot to talk about price action wise. I know you're seeing stuff other than bitcoin making moves, but as we have in our topics, there's always stuff to talk about with bitcoin as well. So a lot to cover today and yeah, I think, I think the sell in May and go away crowd, like we said a couple weeks ago, is probably fomoing back into all markets across the board. So always good to be educating and be here with us at crypto 101 with the rundown.
- [02:39]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean it's definitely an exciting time to be any kind of trader or investor. We have, like we said, bitcoin pushing back to the all time highs. Altcoins outperforming bitcoin and like even on the tradfi side we're seeing a lot of explosive price action. The indices are pushing back to their all time highs. They're within about 2% of it, give or take a little bit. And everything's just doing well. And we bring this up because risk on investors are coming back to the market, they're comfortable and there's just a lot of positive, you know, price action going on everywhere. There's all these positive catalysts. So when we look at what's happening, I know one of the big prints this morning, TiVo here on Wednesday, June 11, 2025 is that we had some inflation numbers come in and they came in lower than expected. And this has kind of been the talk of the town for months now because there was all these fears that inflation is going to be on the rise, it's going to get out of control again. And it's all going to because of Liberation Day and the tariffs and all this stuff. And so far that's been something that people have been calling for every single month. And every single month we bring it back up because we come back in here with a lower than expected inflation report. And this is just another month that goes by where it's like things are relatively tame and the markets are reacting really, really positively to this. And again, bitcoin is leading the way as it has been outperforming the tradfi market. So when we see a lot of these fears get put to the sidelines as people really don't have as much of a reason to worry about them, at least not at the moment, these risk on investors come back to the market and as we've said a lot, that is really, really good. It's in fact it's essential for altcoin investors to have a more risk friendly market, a more risk on friendly market. And that's exactly what we're seeing right here.
- [04:40]
TiVo
So have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared tried? With plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet with just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity. You'll be able to trade in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as $100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gas and much more. Explore equity indices like energy, metals, Forex and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with +500. With over 20 years of experience, +500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us. +500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify and this is not personal financial advice. Plus 500 it's trading with a plus. Did you know your credit card points and miles can lose value to inflation while they collect dust. And credit card companies often reduce the redemption value of your points and miles. Now imagine a credit card with rewards that can grow in value. With Gemini Credit card, you can earn Bitcoin or one of over 50 other cryptos instantly with no annual fee. Every swipe at the store or gas pump earns you instant rewards deposited straight into your account. Plus, sign up now for a $200 Bitcoin bonus to kickstart your rewards. Visit gemini.com card today. Again, if you're looking to invest in Bitcoin but don't know where to start or you're a faithful listener of the Crypto 101 podcast and love Bitcoin and other cryptos, visit the Gemini credit card website so it's easy for you to earn even more Bitcoin or crypto with their credit card. Again, visit gemini.comcard today to learn more.
- [06:25]
Brendan
I mean, if we just go over to.
- [06:27]
TiVo
I have a random. I have a random chart. Not random, but I have something that wasn't in our outline that I remembered. I don't know if you remember before the show, I was like, yeah, there's something I wanted to bring up. I couldn't remember it. I remember now. So what I'm bringing up here again, this is Tradfire related. This is from Tom Lee. Tom Lee, we've had, you know, friend of the program, of course, but we've had him on the. We bring clips of him talking about Bitcoin all the time. Huge Bitcoin bullshit. And here was something that he shared from Seth golden it was like The S&P 100 short interest is sky high. So you've had this and we've covered this on the show non stop of how we don't love to talk about it. But the, the dip, the Liberation Day dip, whatever you want to call it back in April was very political obviously because it was, you know, shaken up from the administration and now we've had this violent V shaped bounce, like a pure V shaped recovery in all indices including bitcoin. And, and people are calling it, Tom Lee's kind of coined it as the most hated V shaped rally. So it's, it's a hated rally because a lot of people sold, they're like, oh, here goes the President going to drive everything into the ground. You know, this is going to ruin the economy. Inflation is going to be super high because prices are going to raise and it's going to go through the economy and inflation's going to rise. And now like you said in the beginning of the show, the inflation's not there. So there's a ton of people that are still on the sideline. And this chart showcases that, that there's a lot of short interest still worked into the system. So that that's kind of building up and bubbling over kind of like an old fashioned short squeeze. So you know, this rally especially I think in tradfi is, is, is called Tom Lee's term. It's a hated rally because there's still a ton of people on the short side. There's a ton of people on the wrong side of the boat. And Tom Lee's calling for a face ripper, possibly a face ripper high, well to new all time highs which would kind of be the kindling of, of a short squeeze basically. So again, not necessarily crypto related but I think it's a risk on relationship that we're going to be talking about today with the altcoin market and, and bitcoin's been very stable in that, you know, 100210 range where we are today. So again, just trying to bring you the data points and talking points. I just, I found this was, was really interesting that, that there's that many people like these are institutions, this is big money that that's still short. And with all the news today of the, the China deal, again we don't have too many details on just the President kind of tweeting, but there was a meeting in London for the China trade deal and everybody's coming back saying that, that there's basically a deal in place for Trump and President Xi of China to sign off on. So these are all things that, that can kind of send us, send us higher. And I guess, in my opinion. What are your thoughts, Brendan?
- [09:09]
Brendan
Yeah, no, I agree. I love that term that he's been saying, just calling this the most hated rally in history. And I think it's true. You know, whether you look at it from bitcoin or the traditional financial side, this has been the most hated rally in history. And that's what it feels like. And there's all these people that are still in disbelief belief that we're going to hit new all time highs that were propped up up here, you know, that we're not going to have another big crash. And all of them, you know, eventually they're going to be forced to have to cover their shorts, you know, have to take a loss and, you know, eventually they're going to be forced to flip long and the markets look really, really solid up here. So I don't want to be betting on a crash. And I think it's a really, really risky maneuver, especially as bitcoin is back above $110,000 on the crypto front. And I'll tell you what, TiVo, I got a bold statement. I think it's possible for us to hit new all time highs as early as today. I don't think that's an outlandish remark. If you look at what's happened in the past two candles, we're essentially painting almost back to back bull hammers on the daily chart of bitcoin. After an extended move to the upside, we're seeing higher swing lows, pressure is clearly squeezing upwards. And we're going to kick things off on this episode by just looking at the chart and showing all of you some of the gainers that we've had on the week so far. So let's just kick this off, let's look at the charts, let's look at how everything's up and then we'll get into some of the fundamental catalysts in just a moment here. So here is bitcoin and here's what we're talking about squeezing into that all time high, right? We're going to really zoom in here for it. But when we look at this here is that move up right? We moved up right here to $110,000. We retraced back down immediately, was bought up, squeezed into a bull hammer today, came down, sold off again at a higher low. Now we're pushing back to the upside and what looks like it's going to be at least right now. I know we have a lot of time left in this daily candle, but it's looking like back to back bull hammers with higher lows. Like this is the definitional squeeze to the upside in technical analysis. Like, this looks fantastic. And so as pressure is building, you know, I'll say nothing is foolproof, but this looks about as close as it can get to just wanting to explode to the upside. It's funny because it feels like every time we do these rundowns, the market is magically pushing towards the highs. Now, TiVo, I'd like to think that me and you are the catalyst. We're the whales behind the scenes. Everyone doesn't see it, but we're obviously just triggering trillions of dollars in buy orders. Not, not billions, not millions, trillions.
- [11:59]
TiVo
I think I got the golden money gun. I got the golden money gun ready for when we hit all time highs again. So ready to roll.
- [12:06]
Brendan
That's perfect. When we hit it. Or maybe it's next episode. You know, you got to shoot it straight into the camera. But yet, you know, all jokes aside here, bitcoin is looking really, really good. You can see the MACD and the histogram over here. Rounding back to the upside, seeing some pressure. The RSI coming back from this very neutral lower part of the neutral territory. This is rallying up to a more aggressive position alongside price, Price. And I think the, the big factor here that we've seen is Bitcoin dominance. TiVo, it's on the fall. This is the second day in a row, pretty substantial drop, but we've seen it bleeding since the start of this week. Maybe bleeding is an understatement. Yesterday it dropped almost 0.9% and today it's down, you know, 0.25%. So this is pushing back to the downside. And it's crazy what a small drop in bitcoin dominance can do from it falling from 64.7% to 63.9%. So less than a 1% drop in the actual bitcoin dominance chart can equate to altcoins just going bananas. So let's take a look at a few of these. We have aerodrome up 20% on the week. Here we have look at another one. A up 26% on the week. Hype up 23.5% on the week. You know, you got Euler up eight and a half percent. Fart Coin up 36 and a half percent on the week. Makers up 23%. Let's look at a Few more of these. I know syrup's been doing well. Friend of the pod up 31 and a half percent on the week. Uni swaps up 30, almost 33 this week. It had a 20 candle yesterday alone. Virtual is up 22% this week. And so altcoins are just rallying and Ethereum is really doing well here, kind of leading the charge. And I'd say, you know, besides the fundamentals that we're going to talk about, Ethereum has been leading the charge here and we look at what it's done. TiVo. This thing's breaking out. It's breaking through an ascending triangle. This is a really, really bullish formation pattern. Breaking above its resistance, above the formation of this pattern and above the 200 day moving average, marking the highest point that we have seen since just about February of this year. And it looks fantastic. I don't think there's any reason for this to really stop below $3,000. So Ethereum's looking great. This is causing altcoins to just do fantastic and everything else is rallying behind it. And I think the big thing to understand here is that whether you love Ethereum, whether you hate, is good to have a strong Ethereum. When Ethereum is strong and when it's moving well, that is good for the rest of the altcoin market. So we want a strong Ethereum, even if you don't have exposure to it. And that's exactly what we're seeing. And in fact, we have all these, you know, other metrics that I want to get into. But, you know, Tiva, any thoughts here? I mean, we're just, we're tearing.
- [15:15]
TiVo
Yeah. If you didn't tune in, I did the second rundown episode with Brian and Joe on Friday. And the most interesting thing that we talked about, I mean, there was a lot. But for me, Brian brought this chart of inflows to the ETH ETFs, the Ethereum ETFs and it kind of, we put it up against the Bitcoin ETFs and there was, you know, obviously strong flows for both, but there was like a couple days where Bitcoin had some outflows. And then we compared it to the Ethereum and Ethereum was green across the board. In those three days that had the Bitcoin outflows were actually the three biggest days for the Ethereum inflows. And so that's basically, you know, you pulled the bitcoin dominance, all the charts and it like clicked in my head. I'm like, oh, this is exactly what Bitcoin dominance chart would show. Right. So I thought that was really interesting because Obviously the Ethereum ETFs, at least in my opinion it's not some, you know, degen retailers like this is. That's big money. And so it seems like Ethereum has caught the eye of some institutions.
- [16:19]
Brendan
Yeah, no, I mean you're spot on. And I had a chart for this. But it was saying that the Ethereum ETFs are seeing record levels of inflows and they are getting a ton of attention. We'll talk about this a little bit more later on. I know we're kind of skipping around in our outline, but you know, the Ethereum ETF flows here are fantastic. Look, you know, sure there's going to be a few days of outflows here and there, but in the last month it has been so dominantly inflows. And that's what we're seeing, that's what the theme is and we actually don't have it. Again, we'll show this here in a little bit. I have a separate chart for it, but as of, I think it was June 10th or June 9th or 10th yesterday there was just a gigantic day of inflows. One of the biggest days that we've seen in a while. And that's just continued by this already existing theme of a lot of money coming into the Ethereum ETFs. And you're right, you know, Ethereum has been grabbing away and taking away from Bitcoin here. And not only are we seeing flows like ETF flows transfer from Bitcoin to Ethereum, we're seeing just general like volume and activity kind of come back to Ethereum here, which again I think the average investor should be a fan of. So you know, this is the Ethereum ETF flows chart. This is seeing a lot of inflows, but you know, it's the whole crypto market that's doing good here. You made a really good post TiVo, so shout out to you or you found this. But it's saying, hey, Bitcoin has stayed above $100,000 for 30 consecutive days. And this is the first time that Bitcoin has ever been able to trade above 100k for 30 consecutive days. And I think that goes to show who's in control of this market. Price is not going to sit somewhere like 100k if people are for 30 days, if people are not okay with, if, if they're not comfortable buying it. And that's exactly what we've seen over here. 100k looks like it's the new 90k.
- [18:23]
TiVo
Yeah, holding above 100k with a 10 drawdown is, is a great stat. It's a great set. And I know me and you were talking about doing, you know, again, never personal financial advice on this show, but know we don't, we don't hide our strategies, right. Like we like a little leverage here and there, but we're long, like we're long term investors. And I think me and you both said like this, this hun, this 30 day period, this 100k breakthrough, this time was the first time we were kind of doing some buying of spot at this level. Besides the time that we obviously pushed all time highs live on air, which everybody remembers as a historic day. But you know, it seems, it seems to be for real, like 30 days with even a 10% correction and obviously we're right back up towards the all time highs now. So a great time to be a bitcoiner for sure.
- [19:14]
Brendan
Yeah, absolutely, man. And kind of feeding into this theme, I don't know if you saw this, but the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are set to hit a trillion dollars in cumulative trading volume. And this is a huge milestone because you know, they're doing this in less than 18 months time. And I saw that the Bitcoin ETF specifically was the fast earth. Ibit, I think was, I think Ibit alone is the fastest ETF in history to do $70 billion in. I forget what the. I think it was like just over a years and a half's timeframe or something like that. And it like compared it to voo, it compared it to GLD and all these other things and it just shows that whether you're looking at inflows, whether you're looking at trading volume, whether you're looking at the entire history of it, these ETFs, these crypto ETFs are crushing it. And a little bit of a sneak peek here, we'll talk about this later on, but there are a lot more on the way from indexes, Baskets, Litecoin, Solana, xrp, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, hbar, Ava, Sui, Tron, and a whole lot more. And a lot of these have a 75 to 90% chance of approval within this year. So again, sneak peek there. We'll come back to it. There's a lot of stuff to talk about, but you got to be optimistic, you got to be optimistic with what we're seeing over here. And I'll tell you what I think the most Optimistic person at the moment.
- [20:53]
TiVo
Before we. Yeah, friend of the program, Michael Saylor. We're going to get to him a second. I just wanted to pull this up. Here's that Ibit Fastest ETF to reach 70 billion chart.
- [21:03]
Brendan
Yeah. Perfect.
- [21:05]
TiVo
Yeah, it's a crazy chart. It's a wild chart. I mean, talk about a new record, a new pace. I mean that's insane.
- [21:15]
Brendan
Yeah. I mean that is a ridiculous standard to set. Click on the image itself just so we can enlarge it. I mean, it's a ridiculous standard to set. Like what is going to be able to beat that unless the. Some magic world reserve currency launches and it's the global standard for every person across all of Earth. Like I don't know what is ever going to be able to beat that. You know, it's record set in 341 days. Like what's second place? You know, we have GLD almost 1700 days. That's where a lot of this other stuff is. 1700 days, 2000 days. I mean it did it in just a fraction of the time. And so I, I don't know what's going to be able to come close to that. And I think the simple answer is nothing.
- [22:00]
TiVo
And it's so, it's so sad. Obviously we're, I mean, in the, in the industry is an understatement, I think, for me and you. But you know, we talk about this all the time and then we have. And everybody does. Who listens to this program as well, has friends and maybe family that, you know, look at them. A little crazy when you want to talk about bitcoin. I feel like now it's more of a mainstream conversation, but there's still so many people out there that just don't, don't even. Just kind of like, oh, that scam, that, that, that's. It's crazy. And it's like, are you not even looking at the real data now that like the last year people still. I still, you know. Yeah. Like that makes me feel like you're still early when you're talking to your aunt and uncle and you know, like that, that famous meme of the. The little character coming out of the attic be like, oh, come tell us about your coins, you know. So, yeah, it's. It's charts like these where it's like, man, the, the average person that doesn't have this information, sadly is going to be left behind. And that's kind of what is a perfect transition to the Michael Saylor clip that we'll play. Because that's that's his theory, right? Like this is just the beginning. We're going so much higher. So we'll, we'll transition over here to Michael Saylor and we'll see what he has to say. It's about a 90 second clip and then we can, we can discuss after.
- [23:17]
Michael Saylor
Planets have aligned. Bitcoin's been acknowledged as the 1 digital commodity in the world by the administration. The banking regulators have given a green light to bank Bitcoin. The accountants have upgraded the accounting to fair value accounting. There's been a surge of bitcoin treasury companies. There's like 100 public companies or more. They're holding bitcoin on their balance sheet. And every single week there's another announcement. I think that, you know, it used to be we're focused on the halvings, but at this point, the entire natural supply Of Bitcoin is only 450bitcoin available for sale every day. That's sort of about 45, $50 million a day at this level. That is all being, that is all being consumed by the bitcoin treasury companies. And the Bitcoin ETFs are coming on strong. So I'm very bullish. My forecast in July of last year in Nashville was bitcoin's going to appreciate 29% a year on average for the next 21 years. And that moves it from. It was about mid 60, 65,000 to 13 million a coin in the year 2045. I'm getting more bullish on that forecast, but I'm certainly comfortable forecasting 30% a year. ARR. On average for the next 20 years. I think Bitcoin's up 57% a year for the past four and a half years. That's double the mag seven. That's quadruple the S&P. You know, that's eight times. Real estate and bonds are down 4%. So. So Bitcoin is smashing everything. Joe.
- [25:06]
TiVo
It's a classic sailor. I don't want to call it a rant, just like a classic sailor explanation for his bullishness. The thing is, the guy's been saying this for years, right? And now, and now like the things that he's kind of been talking about are coming, coming true, right? Slowly. Slowly but surely. I think, you know, 13 million still seems like a wild number. But, you know, I think it goes back to what we discussed with 100k, right? It's like, man, like, you know, remember when FCX was going on and then, you know, if somebody told you what is Almost three years ago now. Approaching three years, two and a half years ago is like, you know, FTX happened. Like man, don't worry like in three years Bitcoin is going to be 100 over 100k. It's, you know, 100k is going to be, you know, maybe the new resistance. You know, you, you'd say that person was taking crazy pills probably. But you know, I think that there's just so much positivity in the space right now. Like we always talk about what he just talked about and I think I'd love to hear your opinion on that. But he's not the only one talking about next, like the next clip we're going to place Paul Duder Jones. And I just think it's always good to get different, different takes. But you know, what was your, what are you taking away from that sailor clip? Brandon?
- [26:16]
Brendan
I mean here's the thing, you're right, he's been saying this for years and now for years he has been right and it's really not that hard in the bigger picture. And listen, I love the trade, you love to trade. A lot of us love the trade, right. But you know, trading's not for everyone. And I think that in the big picture, you know, it is very simple. It's buy low, sell high, wait for a pullback, don't ball the, don't buy the all time high. And you know, that's kind of been the strategy of like just saying hey, over the long term this thing is going like many assets, it's going to appreciate. Over the long term, let's just accumulating on buying bitcoin at you know, strong prices, at convincing price levels and let's just let time play out and let's just let this thing appreciate. He's not over complicating the strategy. He's also, you know, strategy. They don't get levered up, not getting levered up on these positions and doing all these crazy things. They're saying let's just own bitcoin. You know, sometimes they play the spreads and stuff but like that's all they do. They have a very simple strategy of let's just buy this at a very convincing price and let's hold it until it goes higher. And for years on years on years for the entirety of bitcoin's price history, you know, without maybe a few pullback exceptions, right? It's worked out. And even during all those crazy bear markets that we've had where we've retraced 60, 70, 80%, we look at it now in every single bitcoin holder is in profit. So you know, I look at it and you know, it's hard not to be convinced by the bigger picture. Especially at a time like this where there is less supply and more demand than there has ever been.
- [28:01]
TiVo
Attention cigar enthusiasts. Today we're thrilled to introduce to you Cigar Bid, America's number one online cigar auction site. If you're looking for unbeatable deals on every type of cigar, listen up. At Cigar Bid you have the power to set your own price, often scoring top quality cigars and accessories at prices much lower than retail. Others want you to believe they are always giving you their best deal, but at Cigar Bid you get to decide the deal. It's the cigar site the rest of the industry does not want you to know about. Score deals at the best prices every single day. The live auctions are fast paced and exciting, making every bit a thrilling experience. Check out Freefall to watch the prices drop in real time or the power hour for our fastest paced auctions. Cigar Bid has a text update so you get notified when you're outbid and get exclusive deals right to you. And if bidding is not your thing, then no problem at all because you can buy the cigars straight up at awesome low prices as well. So no matter what you're looking for, you'll find it at Cigar Bid. So if you're ready to enjoy the fun and the convenient way to purchase fine cigars at great prices online, visit cigarbit.com crypto101 that's cigarbid.com/crypto 101 Happy bidding.
- [29:12]
Richard Karn
Hi, I'm Richard Karn and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new Pocket Hose Copperhead with Pocket Pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose. Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what an exciting radio exclusive offer just for you for a limited time. You can get a free pocket pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text water to 64,000. That's water to 64,000 for your two free gifts with purchase w a t e r to 64,000.
- [30:06]
Brendan
By texting 64,000, you agree to receive recurring automated marketing messages from Pocket Hose.
- [30:09]
Richard Karn
Message and data rates may apply. No purchase required.
- [30:10]
Brendan
Terms apply.
- [30:11]
Energy Trust
Available at pocket hose.com terms@energy trust of Oregon, we understand that energy isn't just what happens when you flip a switch. It's what happens afterwards. It's a home that can provide both shelter and peace of mind. It's a business that can run more efficiently and keep their dream alive. And it's communities that can thrive today and flourish tomorrow. That's energy. And that's why we partner with local utility companies to help you save energy and lower costs. For cash incentives and resources that can help power your life, visit energytrust.org.
- [30:43]
TiVo
Actually, that's a. That's a great question. We got Matt. Matt. Matt's in the chat. That does rhyme. But he actually asked the question, how is there enough supply to support, you know, all the. All the corporations and institutions purchasing bitcoin? Who. Who's selling? So that's a question from Matt. And I know we've covered that on the show before where we see dwindling, you know, bitcoin on exchanges and whatnot. But. But it is a good question. So any thoughts there for Matt?
- [31:10]
Brendan
Yep. I pulled up the receipts because we just talked about this not too long ago. And he's right. When you look at this, I'm going to pull up the question on my end saying, how is there enough supply to support all the corporations purchasing bitcoin and who is selling? I think the short answer here is there isn't enough supply to support all of the corporations purchasing bitcoin. There just isn't. And we're seeing that on two. Two different ways. Number one, we can look at the amount of bitcoin that is being held by exchanges. This is called the exchange reserves. And that's the chart that I have up here. This thing since 2022 has been falling. We saw it tank in 2022, kind of go sideways in 2023, tank in 2024, and enter an absolute free fall, which. And 2025. So as the supply on exchanges has been shrinking, price has been exploding. Why? Because they can't support all these people purchasing bitcoin anymore. There's not enough bitcoin to go around. So what are people trying to do? They're trying to go to OTC desks. This stands for over the counter. So people can buy without being on an exchange. They're not affecting the price as much. And they go to these OTC desks or OTC counters and even the supply over here just, I mean this is falling faster than, than the exchange reserves. You look at this where bitcoin OTC balances dropped from almost 500k to just at around 115k since 2021. So in about a 4 year period this has been cut by 80% almost to the downside from 500k to almost 100k. So OTC deaths, they' running up, they're running out. People are buying them the fat faster than the miners can actually mine and they're also buying faster than the exchanges can refill up their reserves. Because a lot of the new bitcoin, like Michael Saylor said, you know, they are buying it just these, these reserve companies and these strategy companies, they're already buying, you know, equal to or maybe even greater than what the miners can actually put out. And then you have the ETFs, then you have retail and you have, you know, all these different entities, governments, sovereign wealth funds. And you know, the truthful answer is there's just not enough supply to go around. So demand is increasing, supply is falling. In the result, there is that price is being pushed to the upside quite aggressively.
- [33:55]
TiVo
There it is. I have nothing to add to that. Very thorough by Brendan and thanks to Matt for being in the chat. And just a reminder to, you know, check out the links. If you're listening on audio, we've got the awesome YouTube so you can see the charts, see what we're talking about. We go live most of the time on, on Wednesdays at about, you know, 10:00am, 10:00am Eastern. So if you're interested in joining us on YouTube, make sure you check it out. But let's, let's keep moving forward here. So I think, you know, obviously sailor, friend of the program, all that stuff and, and he's, you know, been the leader of the space. But I always find it interesting when you have all these other billionaire, you know, famous investors that start talking about bitcoin. And so I pulled a clip here this morning. It's Paul, Paul Tudor Jones again just in. A famous investor, a billionaire. You know, no one can say that this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. He's been in the game, he's been in the game for, for decades and decades. And you know, he obviously has come to the bitcoin idea and likes it. So let's See what Paul Tudor Jones has to say.
- [34:57]
Paul Tudor Jones
But it would be some combination of probably gold volume adjusted, bitcoin, gold stocks. That's probably your best portfolio to fight inflation. Volume adjusted because the ball of bitcoin is obviously five times out of gold. So you're going to, you're going to do it in different ways.
- [35:18]
Brendan
You said at one point you would.
- [35:20]
TiVo
Allocate 1 or 2% of your portfolio to bitcoin.
- [35:22]
Brendan
Is it still?
- [35:23]
Paul Tudor Jones
Yeah, I mean, I think it just particularly now that the roadmap is clear then. I mean the, again, if I'm a policymaker, I'm going to run really low real rates, I'm going to have inflation running hot and I'm going to tax the American consumer to get out of my debt trap. And that's exactly what Japan, who's the most fiscally constrained in the world, doing. And it works until, until the population throws you out because you let inflation get too hot.
- [35:59]
TiVo
So again, words for Paul Tudor Jones. Bitcoin is in his portfolio for the volatility. He also likes gold and even just stocks. But it's all around that inflation. And you know, you see the, you know the, the administration, Elon Musk, tons of different politicians talking about this, this debt issue that we have in this country. And I think you can, politically, you can get lost in it because people send you kind of every which way in politics and there's so many spin zones and whatnot. But when it comes down to it, you have these billionaires who have made money from doing their research and investing and even, even Warren Buffett has a record, record number of cash. No bitcoin. But people are, there's alarms going off and I think I'll speak for myself. It's like, I guess it's not something I can totally grasp. Like I understand the concept of the debt and debt's bad because if I rack up my credit card and don't pay my bills, I have repercussions. If you don't pay your car note or if you don't pay your mortgage, I understand of those real life repercussions, I guess because it's the government in the United States of America, which is the most powerful country in the world, I guess those repercussions are a little different. And you can kind of keep punting it away and away and away. But you know all these people that have been around for decades and you know, especially the investor side and have made billions of dollars doing this say that this is a problem and you can, you can like bitcoin, like Michael Sailor or love it like Michael Sailor. You can be interested in it and like it, like Paul Tudor Jones, or you can hate it, quote unquote, like our friend Jamie Dimon. They're all like, but everybody's saying that this is an issue and if you just do the smallest amount of research, like the government can't seem to get its ducks in a row to kind of attack this problem because it's too big. So bit bitcoin, you know, could and, and seems to be the answer for now to kind of at least hedge or, or you could kind of go all in like Michael Saylor.
- [38:00]
Brendan
Yeah, you're right. And you know, there's all these ultra high net worth individuals, even the large financial institutions, and they're all bullish on bitcoin. Just about everyone is. And again, these are the people who have the most in touch financial advisors. They're hiring the most brilliant of minds because they're billionaires or have trillions of dollars in assets under management. And they're all saying, hey, even with the most intelligent financial talent in the world, they're all still saying, hey, we're really, really bullish on crypto. And I think that that's telling of again the overall direction that we're headed. But I think the other side of this coin is what are altcoins doing? And we've been talking about altcoin season more and more here on the crypto rundown. And I'll tell you what, there's a lot of decent data that's kind of pointing towards the idea that altcoin season could be closer than you think. Now, earlier we were talking about how all of these tradfi factors are helping bring risk on investors back into the market. We have the Trump trade deals coming through and we've seen the tradfi side recover. I know that the Trump team in the US just met with China over the last couple of days and basically saying, hey, a deal is done, we just have to announce it, Everything's agreed for all they need are the final signatures between Xi and Trump. They're also saying, hey, trade deals between Mexico are really close. Trade deals between India are really close. There's all these other things that are in the line and people are excited about that. There was the big mom and dad fight between Trump and Elon all over Twitter. I saw some tweets this morning. The gap seems that it's mending there. You know, things are recovering, things are going back to normal again. Bringing back these risk on Investors who were fearful for a variety of different reasons in the trading markets. And now we're looking at Altcoins with Ethereum rallying everything else, doing well, all the other stuff that we've talked about. Ethereum is seeing a lot of attention here. So if we screen share this and I show everyone what we got going on here. This is that chart that I was talking about. Ethereal ETF inflows were over $52 million yesterday, which is crazy. BlackRock and Fidelity are not selling Ethereum. And like TiVo said earlier, we're seeing a lot of market share get kind of taken away from other places and get put into Ethereum here. The other big thing is that this is a fantastic tweet from James Safart and Eric Balchunas, people who've we've had on over here. But Eric was just retweeting or adding to what James Seyfort was saying. And these are two of the guys that lead Bloomberg Intelligence in their ETF data and analysis. And he said, get ready for a potential Altcoin ETF summer with Solana likely leading the way, as well as some Basket products via James Safe Fart. And they also went a little bit further and attached an odds of approval for this year for each one of these ETF categories. So let's walk through this. At the very top of the list, we have the baskets and the indexes. What these are are just. It's essentially a collection of ETFs. Maybe it's just Bitcoin and Ethereum. Maybe it's Bitcoin, Ethereum and a handful of other Altcoins. It varies. There's a couple of these. There's one from Grayscale, one from Bitwise, one from Hashdex, and another one from Franklin Templeton. Now, Those have a 90% chance of approval. Beyond that, we have Litecoin and Solana sitting at a 90% chance of approval for this year. Solana has one of the most ETF filings out of everyone. They have Grayscale, Van Eck 21 shares, Canary, bitwise, Franklin Templeton and Fidelity. And you know, right behind that, we have XRP at an 85 chance of approval for 2025. And then we have Dogecoin at 80%, Cardano at 75. We have Polkadot at 75, HBAR at right around 80, Avax at 75, Sui at 60%. And then Tron, which actually does not have a rating attached to it. But it looks like, you know, the, the least likely over there might be Sui and Tron and maybe like Polka Dot and some of these others. But you know, the, the big takeaways are, you know, Solana, these basket and indexes, Litecoin and potentially XRP are at the very, very top of the list. And there's a lot of people who want these. You look at how many different people have filed for these ETF applications and there's all these different groups that we've mentioned. So you can see it on the screen here. You can always check out our good buddies Eric Balchunas and James Seyfart and we'll have to have them back on here soon. But if this starts to happen TiVo and we start getting indexes and baskets and all these different altcoin ETFs being approved, I think that sends us into a full blown euphoric altcoin season. People think it's hot now or whatever. It would blow away whatever we've seen so far if we start getting rapid fire approval for these things. And I think that is what sends us back. And I would assume that this causes bitcoin dominance to, to just tank if this happens. So keep an eye out on this everyone, because it's, it's looking likely for this year.
- [43:50]
TiVo
Yeah, it's, it's something that obviously will follow. I just find it interesting if it, it turns into a situation where you know, obviously there's always going to be winners and losers but you start spreading the money out. I know it's something that we've talked about and I've seen other people mention is like the difference between like the defi summer, you know, all coin season and now is like there's just so many projects to choose from. Right. And then you got like somewhere like Pump Dot Fun and the meme coins and people are just spinning up these things and the liquidity is getting spread so thin. So part of me, it could go either way almost in my head it's like, well one is like, oh, it's just all these options, there's too many. Or does the ETF kind of signify where the winners are? Like right, these, these are the winners. And then it's kind of gonna, everybody's gonna pile into those names maybe, you know, yet to be seen. I think it'll be more interesting to track the flows of those just to see, you know, you can see who's buying what or at least the, the amount from, from like the, you know, the corporate tradfi side who wants to dive into those. So just fascinating times ahead and that it makes Makes our job more fun and easy. Right. There's always something to talk about.
- [44:57]
Brendan
Spot on, man. Spot on.
- [45:00]
TiVo
And a good transition, I'll tee it up for you is like tradfi, very interested, very interested in the stablecoin market. Right. So, so a great transition to toss to you is the Circle IPO last week we just touched on it a little bit on Friday as well. But, but what are you seeing over there? I mean, again, just to say, picking winners and looters, losers. Circle, big winner.
- [45:21]
Brendan
Yeah, huge winner. I mean they IPO, when they IPO people were purchasing just above and around 30 bucks. This thing opened up and it shot up to almost 130 bucks within a few days, which is just a crazy move to the upside. Hundreds of percent to the upside within the first week of it launching. And it just goes to show for all the people out there talking about demand and this and that, this is a crypto company. They are in charge of the second largest stablecoin usdc. People use this. They have a great, you know, revenue stream. And when they launched as an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange as a publicly traded company, there was so much demand that this thing went from $30 a share to almost $130 of share to share per share. If that doesn't show you that there is demand for the crypto market and to have crypto market exposure and that there is underexposure at the moment, I don't know what will. I mean, it's, it's crazy. How often do you see an IPO do something like that, right? And then hold value? It's not tanking back down. I mean, what's the price of it? Right now TiVo Circle is trading right around 114 bucks. So I mean, it's holding value up here. It's not tanking. It's not pulling a weeble where it shot up all this and then lost everything? No, I mean this thing went on a tear and it's holding above 110 bucks. It's a crazy thing to see. And so there's so much demand for the crypto market. I mean, Circle's IPO crushed it. And you have to think that other crypto companies are looking at this from the outside in and saying, and maybe just normal companies, fintech companies, but you have to think that a lot of other crypto companies are looking at this and saying maybe we should ipo, maybe, maybe we should launch here because they're seeing the success that, you know, Circle had and ultimately Again, it's a great thing for the crypto space. The whole industry is strong right now.
- [47:38]
TiVo
Yeah, it's hard to think that these companies, and I think I've seen the numbers on Tether too. I mean, it's low employee companies, high profit, high revenue. I just saw that circle has like 900, you know, employees. And you start comparing that to JP Morgan to Goldman Sachs. And I get that they're kind of, they obviously are different businesses and have a ton of branches, but start looking at, start looking at the profit and it's not like they're not too far off. And then you look at the amount of people it takes to do that. It's a fascinating, again, it's a fascinating kind of statistic to look at and you kind of understand why, you know, Elizabeth Warren is on the floor. Crypto's the devil and stable coins are the devil. And don't let this pass. It's, you know, it's, it's a, it's an, it's such a transition and change for, for an industry. And, and these, these old guards aren't ready. I think, you know, whether it's, it's banks or brokerages, you know, this podcast is no stranger to, you know, the Robin Hood story. And just it seems like times are changing and these old guards aren't ready for it. You know, when you can start making that type of profit and revenue with, with, you know, a low, a low head count. It's, it's breakneck for turning heads and people that want to invest into it. And the Circle IPO is, is a great example of that.
- [49:01]
Brendan
It is, man. And I saw that Uphold looks like, you know, they're interested. We just talked about how other companies are going to be interested. Uphold was just saying, hey, we're exploring, maybe doing an IPO after seeing the success of, of Circle. And again, I think that there's just more I'd love to maybe see to maybe see Kraken try it. I think that could be a cool one. They've just recently, I don't know if you've seen this. They've allowed people to start trading, like stocks and everything from Kraken. They're kind of trying to become this all in one platform, which is kind of interesting and cool. So, you know, who knows, there's a lot of other company crypto companies that could, you know, maybe it is Tether next. Maybe it's Kraken. Maybe it's Uphold, which they just announced that they publicly are. Interesting.
- [49:52]
TiVo
Did you say Gemini? Did you Mention Gemini.
- [49:54]
Brendan
No, I didn't. I didn't.
- [49:55]
TiVo
Yeah, Gemini. Gemini apparently filed for an ipo. The, the Winklevoss twins and their company. Gemini filed. It was funny. It was all over Twitter. It was like, Gemini files Anonymous. Like ipo. I don't know what that term means. I was like, it's not very anonymous. Everybody's talking about it. Yeah, maybe that means they filed with a Com. Like nobody knows what company they filed with to bring them public. Maybe that's what that means. But yeah, the circle, the circle IPO has, has turned heads because. I know, I know you were bullish on. I know our whole team was. I think we all tried to get a piece of, of the offering. We, we actually, we did talk about that on Friday. Joe was, Joe was devastated. He didn't get his spread picked up. And then I did get a little, a little slice of the cake. So, you know, interesting stuff. Obviously, the, again, our team was bullish on it, but you didn't. I don't think people really knew. People weren't ready for that. People were definitely weren't ready for that or calling for that. So speaking of calls, one more shout out to the chat before, before we wrap up the episode here, we got Baylor Bear. A Baylor Bear is a reoccurring friend of the program. In the chat. He is just all bowled up, wants to give a shout out with a price target for $300,000 bitcoin within a year. So I'll write that in my notes. Baylor Bear, we'll. We'll keep an eye on it. Yeah, I'm all for it, too. And he's kind of like brought it up while we were talking about Michael Sailor. He's like, Sailor and strategy will be on the COVID of every financial magazine as well. So he's making, he's making his list like the Matt Hogan list of predictions for the year. So Baylor Bear, shout out to you. Thanks for joining us. And then just, just a fun. Any final thoughts for you, Brendan, before we go? The final topic of the day?
- [51:38]
Brendan
No, that's it.
- [51:40]
TiVo
No, I just had a, I had a fun theory. I know you're talking about. You know, mom and dad are getting back together as of this morning. Elon Musk has apologized on. On X to President Trump. Obviously, the, the world was captivated by this sparring on. On X. Like literally one of the most fascinating days in Internet history for me. I mean, if you really want to break it down, I think It's a top 10. I think it's a top 10. Of at least days on X slash Twitter in its history. So they're making up. But I was thinking about this over the weekend. I was like, okay, if Elon's going to double down on this and go really anti Trump administration, what could be a play? And again, this is just me thinking outside the box, kind of even just a fun topic to spit around. But I found this, this old tweet I just pulled up. It's December 20, 2020. Bitcoin is my safe word. And I thought that was really funny. I was like, use the safeword, please. Use it to the maximum of your capabilities. Obviously, the richest man in the world. I was. So I was thinking, if he's really anti the administration, clearly he's anti the way government has acted in the last decade. Plus, you know, like, we like to say, hey, opt out with bitcoin. And Tesla has a ton of bitcoin on its balance sheet that they haven't sold. Now, granted, they haven't really bought more, and obviously there's no sailor strategy there, but they have it. You know, Elon Musk isn't, isn't afraid to jump in the crypto waters. He loved the Doge thing when, when that was rocketing up, he named it Doge, you know, probably as a joke. So, you know, you haven't really seen any bitcoin buys from him. But my thought was if he really just wants to, you know, double bird to the government, maybe just goes and starts buying a ton of bitcoin and says, like, hey, like, the government's out of control. This is what I'm doing. Which would be fascinating, again, maybe a little less likely now that the, the apology tour has begun for him, but not, not out of the realm of possibility because again, it's the same, the same thing that you've heard, you know, Paul Tudor Jones and a lot of other these billionaire investors who are coming to bitcoin now, not like Michael Saylor has kind of doing the research and coming a little later to the boat. But they're all still, you know, basically telling you the same story. Hey, it's inflation, it's the debt. So, you know, maybe there's always a chance that Elon Musk comes around to that as well. So just thought it was a fun thought.
- [54:04]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, I think there's honestly a solid chance we know that Tesla has held bitcoin on its balance sheet. They seem to be very open to the idea over there. Elon's always tweeting about, you know, dogecoin this and that. So I wouldn't say it's anything too outlandish. And, you know, hopefully you're right. You know, we see him open up to this idea a little bit more and come around like everyone else already is, so something to certainly keep an eye on. But that's going to wrap us up for today's.
- [54:31]
TiVo
Hold on one breaking news. Hot off the press here just in. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says that the bank is developing its own crypto, Stablecoin. So there you go, right off, right off the hot press. Let it begin. I can't wait. I can't wait for Jamie diamond to make his own pet rock and start. Start shilling it to us, huh?
- [54:53]
Brendan
Oh, that. He'll never hear the end of it, Bear breaking boa.
- [54:57]
TiVo
Stablecoin. Beat you to it, Baylor Bear. Still love you, though. Still love you.
- [55:01]
Brendan
I. Yeah, man. I think we're gonna see a lot more groups do this, and I believe that genius Bill is getting voted on today. I believe so. So we'll have to check that out. But I'm pretty sure, you know, we're gonna have updates on that coming pretty soon. That might be why I saw Circle was pumping. Maybe something happened with.
- [55:20]
TiVo
Yeah, Circle just pumped and I say 10. I got that notification, too. Let's go, man. Bulls are on parade. The bull. The bulls are on parade. Imagine selling in Maine, going away. Unbelievable.
- [55:32]
Brendan
Do you imagine? Could you imagine selling in May? Well, hey, everyone, that's gonna round us off for this episode. We hope all of you enjoyed. We're obviously having a little bit of fun with it, and we hope that you all are having fun with this, too. The market's moving to the upside. Things are rallying. There's all sorts of positive catalysts. So before we let you go, if you did enjoy the episode, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button, and check us out on all of our resources. If you are listening in on Spotify, Apple, Podcasts, Audible, anywhere else, check us out on YouTube at the Crypto 101 podcast. You can not only see the video format or the video counterparts that we are referencing on the screen during these very episodes, but we also have all sorts of other market updates. We have different kinds of, you know, tutorial videos, you name it, like podcasts. We have all sorts of content that we're putting out every single week. We have multiple videos coming out from all of the different analysts over here. So if you like the content that we put out, we got a lot more coming your way, and we appreciate all of you coming in here. So thank you all for watching and we'll see all of you at the same time, same place, next week.
- [57:01]
MIT Sloan School of Management
This is a call to the leaders who want to redefine their impact.
- [57:06]
Brendan
Tackle our world's greatest challenges with a powerful network of global business leaders at.
- [57:11]
MIT Sloan School of Management
MIT Sloan School of Management. If your job at a healthcare facility includes disinfecting against viruses, you know prevention is the best medicine. And maintaining healthy spaces starts with a healthy cleaning routine. Grainger's world class supply chain helps ensure you have the quality products you need when you need them, from disinfectants and cleaning supplies to personal protective equipment so you can help deliver a clean bill of health. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [57:43]
Ali Jackson
If you are a podcast host, listen up. This one's for you. My name is Ali Jackson. I'm the host of Finding Mr. Height, a dating and relationship podcast that I've been doing for four years now, sharing my positive and practical approach to dating that's built on my own life experience. And I wanted to share another experience that I've had my secret behind monetizing my show. It's called Red Circle, and I was just telling my colleague about how much I love their platform. With Red Circle, not only am I getting a seamless hosting experience, but I also love the support I receive in ad sales. It's not just typical ad sales either. It's targeted opportunities based on my show and my life. And the platform is super simple. You just set your preferences and Red Circle matches you with sponsors that align with your show. You can vet every opportunity and their platform gives you great analytics. More recently too, my Redcircle team has brought me opportunities outside of my podcast on social media to really augment the podcast partnerships. Bring them full circle. I just can't recommend them enough. If you want to give it a try, go to redcircle.com to get your free trial. That's redcircle.com for a free trial.