← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
TiVo
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- [00:30]
Brendan
You can.
- [00:30]
TiVo
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- [02:58]
Brendan
All right, everybody, Everyone, welcome back to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency, from the fundamental in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to, and then we package it and we bring it to you all in under an hour. And, man, it's going to be an electric episode. We're getting back into these. I mean, it's been a busy wrap and kind of end to this year, but we want to make sure that we do these before we go in the holiday season and take a little bit of a break. And I mean, today's episode is going to be one of the most packed ones that we've had in a while. We have all sorts of breaking news. We have unemployment data, we have JP Morgan back in here with some really significant headlines. And so just a lot of other things to talk about. I mean, I'm not even going to spoil it before we get into it, but crypto seeing a lot of institutional and large kind of scale whale like attention. And it's important for everyone to understand these things because in a volatile time like this one, there's a lot going on and it feels like people don't know which way to look. They see price action falling further, they see the fundamentals and adoption growing. They're seeing crypto kind of move in the right direction from a fundamental standpoint. But then they look at the charts and they're saying, I'm still a little bit scared and nervous about why there's a disconnect. And so we're going to be breaking all that down in today's episode. And of course, I cannot do this without the one and only super producer, TiVo.
- [04:27]
TiVo
Yes, good morning, Mr. Brennan. Excited to Be here thinking about changing the name of the show from crypto101 to fundamentals101, because it is another episode where the fundamentals certainly are strong, the news is strong, and we're still kind of getting questions around the price action, which, again, as we've kind of hammered home the last couple episodes, isn't the funnest. When the price action doesn't go the way you want it. But that's kind of what makes an investor and what makes a trader is when you know things necessarily aren't going your way. You got to investigate, figure out why, and challenge your thesis. And I think this show has done a great job over the last month, plus of kind of giving the tools and the knowledge to. To help, you know, help you make those decisions. And it's certainly. I know we've talked, we talk about on the team, Brian, me, you, and it's like, it's. We love doing these because it's fun and we like doing the show with each other, but it actually really helps us develop our own thesis and challenge the way we think and. And help us with our investing. So excited to be here with you.
- [05:25]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, sometimes you just need to talk through things out loud and it helps you think through it in a different way and just talk through it with someone else. You get a different perspective. You hear someone say something in a different way than. Than you would have maybe said it or thought about it, and it just gives you a different perspective. So I know it helps myself. I know it helps you, and hopefully to all the listeners out there, it helps you as well. And again, we love doing these things. So, I mean, let's just kick this off. Normally we start with the charts or the most important headline, but today I want to kick things off by just looking at some breaking news that we have. Because you're tuning in here, you get it right away. So two forms of breaking news today. TiVo. It's not every day we get two. But let's talk about unemployment because those numbers just came out. You know, it's financial data that comes out from. From time to time here, and I think it's important to look at that. And so the number was expected to be 4 point, or excuse me, it was 4.4%. It was expected to be 4.5%, and it came in worse than expected at 4.6%. So what this means is that the unemployment numbers came in worse than expected. And this is the highest that we have seen it since September of 2021. Pretty much making four year highs for the unemployment numbers. So this is a double edged sword and the reason why we even bring this up, you're going to say, Brendan, this is a crypto show. Why in the world are we talking about this kind of financial data? Well, that's because it affects all of the risk on assets. And crypto, whether you like it or not, is still largely considered a risk on asset. So if people are trying to become more risk on or more risk off, that's going to impact crypto prices in one way or another. So at a very basic level, worse unemployment makes people not want to go spend their money on more risky assets, which could hurt the price of Bitcoin. However, we are back in the cycle. TiVo. We are back in the cycle of good news is bad news. Bad news is good news. All because of interest rates which also affect the risk on and risk off markets. So the fact that we have this worse than expected employment data means that there's a higher chance that we get of a rate cut. I saw it go over 30 something percent after this news came out. So now that there's a higher percentage chance for a rate cut that outweighs the bad unemployment data and is actually now a good thing. And you're saying what in the world. My brain just went into a blunder. I don't blame you. It's doesn't always make the most logical sense. But again, the way that this works is because Bitcoin is considered on the higher end of the risk on spectrum. You have the rate cuts essentially being of more importance and significance than what the unemployment data is, at least for the time being right now, because it's not anything too, too crazy. And so people are saying, okay, well the fact that we got bad news is actually good news because it raises the chance for more rate cuts next year, which, which the crypto market has historically responded pretty positively to. So yeah, I mean Teva, what do we say? Good news is bad news, Bad news is good news.
- [08:39]
TiVo
It's a, it's a change of wins I think in, in the macro risk markets. I think October 10, as we've talked about on this show, that the, the biggest liquidation in crypto history is still kind of playing out, right? Flushing out. We haven't, we never saw that dead body, remember the, the quote unquote dead body that would rise to the surface. We haven't seen that. Which I find is, is really interesting and you know, I guess since it hasn't come out, whereas like Tom Lee and Scaramucci said they know who it is but they won't say it. I don't know. I, I was really interested in trying to figure out more around that because I think that was such a, again the biggest liquidation in crypto history. But like we don't have a lot of information since then, so I don't know that that kind of has been lingering. And I think you have to look at overall with like this Jobs data plus the AI trade, right? So a lot of the AI trade, especially over the last six months to a year has been high risk on, right. The evalu, the valuation of these companies are getting higher, people are levering up. So it's like if you're a trader that wants high beta, high risk, you know that that AI trade slash crypto trade is kind of the same person. So I think some of that money kind of might have gone to two sides of the coin if that makes sense where, you know, back when FTX happened and at the bottom and you know, planning to, to buy the dip on that and then ride this thing for the last couple years like you have from 18000 to 120. I don't think at that time I wasn't saying I didn't see anybody really pounding the fist for this crazy AI trade that developed over the last three years too. So I think, I think that's something that I've really learned over this last year to digest is like hey, the, the risk on money has gone different ways. And so now that we're kind of digesting this Jobs data, we're digesting the new Fed and then all of a sudden again, this is what makes a market. But all of a sudden these AI companies are getting questioned and it used to be six to eight months ago it was if you're spending more on capex, your stock's going to go up because you're investing in the future. Now it's like, whoa, you're spending too much money. Because like Google and Apple were left for dead. It was like, oh, they're not spending any money. Apple's debt, Google's gonna get beat by OpenAI. Now it's reversed. Apple and Google are leading the Mag 7 and so that money, that risk money sloshing around and so I think that's taking away from some crypto where it's just kind of a pause. Plus October 10th, you can't forget about that being a historic event and really not getting the answers that I think the community would like.
- [11:06]
Announcer 1
Hey, speaking of which, if you want to see How a Top Pro Makes Winning Altcoin and Crypto Trades Brendan Veeman is doing a live over the shoulder trading session this week. All right, he's going to reveal both the coins that he's watching closely right now, and he's going to walk us through his trade ideas, ones that investors could potentially execute on right away. It's like getting what I would call a masterclass in real time trading for absolutely free. Plus, you're going to walk away with some altcoin picks that might be poised for their next day big moves. So here's what all you got to do. Head to www.cryptorevolution.commasterclass to save your spot Now.
- [11:51]
Announcer 2
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- [12:20]
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- [12:50]
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- [13:47]
Brendan
Yeah, and you know we're going to talk more about this because I think that there's three threats that are looming out there right now and we'll get into these in just a little bit. But before we do that, I mean, let's cover some more news. I want to make sure we get like a lot of these big headlines out of the way and we talk about some of the good stuff before we go into any of the bad things. But this one shocked me. I actually had to fact check this last night and make sure that this was real. And it is just in. NASDAQ is moving forward with a 24.7stock trading model that is expected to have 24 hour trading on weekdays by Q2. So I'm confused by this TiVo. And again, this literally just released and there's not a ton of information about this. My initial thought is if they're going to make it 24, seven, is it going to be using blockchain technology? Are things going to be tokenized or is this going to be them updating their internal systems to do this on their own? There's not really a clear answer yet. They, they are filing to do this because I believe they need approval. But there's not a ton of information now in this post. And maybe we can find another post TiVo. This is the one that I gave, so, you know, it's kind of on me. But the reason I was confused about this is because it says that they want to move forward with a 24, 7, which means 24 hours a day, seven days a week. And then it says expected to have 24 hour trading days only on weekdays. So then you see what I mean. The Polymarket post was a little bit like it didn't make as much sense because it was saying 24, 7 and then it only said 24. 5.
- [15:32]
TiVo
Right.
- [15:32]
Brendan
Because it said only on weekdays. So I'm confused. You know, what are they going to be doing here? Is it going to be 24. 7? Is it going to be 24. 5? And again, this stuff just launched and it looks more like here we go.
- [15:44]
TiVo
Maybe this one again, we're just pulling from X here. So this news just dropped, but 20, 23. 5 during the week starting next year and then by the end, by the end of next year, by the end of 26, 24. 7. So kind of a rollout.
- [16:01]
Brendan
Yeah. And then the post below that says they're going to move forward with. And then, yeah, there it is again, 24. Seven by the end. So I mean, we'll have to come back and circle around on this. Maybe I think you're right in that the 23. 5 or the 24. 5 is what comes out first. They test it, right? They have kind of the test flight and then they come out with 24. 7.
- [16:22]
TiVo
Welcome. Yeah, welcome to the show, huh? I mean these traditional tradfi traders have to be like kicking and punching air right now because, yeah, like that's, that's. I mean it's kind of already a global market. But with, I don't know, I think this is going to, this is going to stir some feathers.
- [16:39]
Brendan
I saw people raging online about they're.
- [16:41]
TiVo
Not going to have a life. Like you're not. Like, imagine managing like a big fund. Like it's going to be very, very, very hard. But hey, we're in the trenches, we live this life.
- [16:51]
Brendan
But here's the thing, and again, the reason why we say this is because what you now have are all of these crypto related plays and these spot ETFs that have been trading on the stock market, right, the equities market. So now those are all of a sudden going to be 24. 7. And that was the appeal. One of the appeals of crypto is like, hey, these can be 24. 7 and they're battle tested. I mean, bitcoin being around now for as long as it have, you know, we have something that has more of a decade experience of never going offline, never faulting, never having issues. And that's kind of the appeal. And you get 24. 7 exposure and you can access it whenever you want and there's no control over it. And it looks as if crypto is putting pressure. I mean, we've seen the crypto market grow to $3 trillion in market cap. It looks like it is putting pressure on equities to do something similar. And they're looking at the crypto market, they're seeing it take some market share and they're saying, hey, you know, we probably need to integrate features like this as well. We've seen the crypto market do it for well over a decade and it's worked out great and they've grown. We can probably integrate something like this as well. Again, the big kind of question that it comes back to is is this going to be an integrated form of blockchain to make, to make sure that it stays up 24. 7 or is this going to be their own servers and stuff? Because I would be somewhat skeptical of how a more centralized product would run 24. 7. I think eventually you're going to have some downside issues, you're going to have some server issues and you know what I mean? Because that's an issue that we see with like a lot of centralized tech. It's like eventually something happens, a power outage, something. Granted there are holidays and breaks and stuff so maybe that's when maintenance can be done. But that's kind of the beauty of the decentralized model is that you can do work or you can take one node offline or 10 nodes offline because the other ones are going to pick up the weight. But in a centralized model that's not the case. So the question is like how, how long can they run for before something needs to be upgraded or changed and then moving forward if we do this, are there going to have to be just down days for the stock market where it's like hey everyone, we need to work on the infrastructure and update things. No trading today. Like that's a possibility. And I'm sure there's going to be a million workarounds for this in the future. But yeah, I mean, interesting stuff man. I have so many questions that I.
- [19:16]
TiVo
Want answered and, and sure it's coming. I mean it's inevitable as much as the definitely Tradfi is not going to. It's like you know, between crypto over the last decade plus and then obviously Robinhood rolled out 247 trading for a lot of stocks like the big ones like Nvidia and Google a lot of things and hood their own stock.
- [19:36]
Brendan
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [19:38]
TiVo
So yeah, it's coming. I think, I think it's a double edged sword. I think it gives, it obviously gives a lot of opportunity like when we've just seen just volatility has been just insane recently. It's like I feel like it could be for your average retail trader if they don't have, you know, good tendencies. Education and trading strategies. Like you're gonna be getting shaken out at nine o' clock at night, you know, on a Sunday because you're scared type of thing.
- [20:02]
Brendan
Yeah.
- [20:03]
TiVo
So sometimes the ability to not excel when the volatility is high might help. Like your average trader, you know, if they're trying to go out to dinner, It's Wednesday at 7 and you know there's their stocks falling off a cliff. They don't, they're not gonna know what to do.
- [20:16]
Brendan
So it's, it's Friday at midnight, you've had one too many Dr. And you're making horrible decisions.
- [20:22]
TiVo
We don't do that, we don't do that here.
- [20:24]
Brendan
No one would Ever do that? No one would ever.
- [20:27]
TiVo
That's great. All right, let's. Let's move on to the charts. I think I know this week is as we come to the end of the year, we're doing our last trading session with you on Thursday. So if people are interested, obviously the volatility has been high. It's a great time to learn technical analysis. You come to this show to watch Brendan do it usually every week. So he's gonna do a session now if you're interested. He has a one hour live trading session this Thursday. I put the link in YouTube. I'll put the link in the podcast as well. So go in and check that link if you're somebody that's interested in kind of learning more. He's gonna do a one hour live trading session this Thursday. Go sign up for it in the link below.
- [21:05]
Brendan
Yeah, completely for free. Would love to see everyone there. We're gonna talk about bitcoin and some other cryptos as well. And we're gonna go a bit deeper than we do right here. But this is what we see on bitcoin right now. You know, bitcoin continuing the downtrend from what we saw around October 6, which is when we hit the all time high and then 10th, which was that large liquidation event. And so as we've said for a while, kind of just lower lows, lower highs on a pretty routine basis. And most recently here we're seeing what was really good structure last week start to break here. TiVo Bitcoin breaking some of this bullish structure that we've had, especially short term structure. And so for the bulk of this move, I mean, ever since the initial breakdown, bitcoin had never really held above that 20 day moving average. You had kind of the one fake out here where it spent two days above. And this was immediately just followed up by a ton of selling pressure. This time around was a little bit different. You saw consistent higher lows. You saw a relatively flat level of support which turned into a climbing level support as after this most recent move. But you saw rising support. You know, we are trading and closing and using this 20 day moving average as support pressure looked like it was squeezing back to the upside. The 20s started to have a little bit curl back upwards. And then after the news came out last week, the FOMC and the Federal Reserve rate cutting news after that, you know, price just started to tank. You know, it happened on Wednesday. Thursday we got the news and then for our Thursday was like digestion day and then, you know, moving From Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, it was just all down, all red days from there on out. And what we started to do is we broke the 20 day moving average, we broke our higher lows and we broke our support line. And so what we have here is a pretty clear rejection off the highs and then now kind of rejections of the short term moving averages which we were using as a support area. So when we kind of look at this, you know, it's looking a little bit more like an inverse break, hook and go kind of the break to the downside, testing those former levels and rejecting them, which isn't usually a great thing to see here for bitcoin. So I think a little bit of pessimism is coming back in as we're looking at this. And again, it's just not a great thing to see any kind of the first real sense of like short term bullish structure that we get. And then you just get it all kind of broken over the weekend. And again, not a great thing to see here for bitcoin. The emphasis I want to place on this is that this is short term structure, right? I'm not saying midterm, I'm not saying long term, long term structure, you know, I think you could argue is like still very much intact. You know, you look at this and you're not like, oh my gosh, we're in some horrible downtrend. It's like, no, over the past couple years, very, very clear uptrend. It's the short term structure of what we've seen, you know, really over the last two or so months, barely two months. And that's really been it for bitcoin. Now for altcoins, I think you have some midterm, very clear downtrend from the midterm time frame because for all coins it's about six months of bear market so far, if you even want to call it that. But for bitcoin it's only been about two months. But when we're looking at this, I just want to kind of temper expectations. You know, we're still below all three of the major moving averages. We're breaking support, we're kind of rejecting some of those prior support areas. Just generally not a big, not a great thing to see. I think the number one thing I want to watch out for here is can we form a higher swing low off this relative strength index? And if we do like, that'll be a huge opportunity in my opinion. But it's something that has not happened yet. And I'm going to still kind of keep an eye out on besides this. You know, you have eth, which was actually outperforming bitcoin on this move to the upside. Even this is starting to come back in. I mean, Bitcoin's green 1%, ETH's red 1%. Today in the whole crypto market's kind of just all over the place. You have some green, some red. Just depends on the project. But it's pretty mixed emotions. But again, as things are kind of consolidating, you're getting kind of rejections and on a lot of altcoins you continue to get lower lows. So at a time like this, altcoins are remaining more risky. They kind of continue to underperform. And it makes me want to be a little bit more risk off and just kind of sit on my hands for a bit, get a little bit more data, get some more information. And as more of that comes out, I'll probably become more risk on, but I'm still waiting for it. So I'm listen, I'm going to do a little bit of DCA ing. I'm going to add some things that I have really long term conviction on, things that are probably a little bit lower in risk, not super risky. And I'm okay doing some dollar cost averaging there, but I'm not trying to do anything too, too crazy until again, we get a little bit of a clearer picture. And that's just the way that I look at the markets right now. So that's what we're seeing on the charts.
- [25:47]
TiVo
Yeah, just again, it's a digesting time. Kind of basically what we said kind of when we were talking about the jobs data coming out and just the macro market seems to be kind of deciding do we want, do we want risk on, do we want risk off? What. It's an interesting time. And I think whereas the Fed decision comes into play in 26, we know the President wants a dove in the Fed chair and for rates to be lower. So again, it's a don't fight the Fed tape. But how do we get there? And there's still a couple decisions with Fat, with, excuse me, with Powell. But then even when I saw this stat, even when the Fed chair gets announced, I believe it takes on average like 70 to 90 days to get processed. And so, so in, in reality, and this I've been talking about, the Fed thing is like kind of one of my top storylines at 26, which I'm sure it will be for a lot of people. But I was kind of in the. Just the thought of. I guess I didn't understand. I got educated on it a little more of the, the process of getting, you know, put into the seat. It's going to take much longer than I thought. I thought they would be there in the spring, basically, okay, Fed chair pals done and then you just pop somebody else in there. At this rate, it looks like it's going to be like a summer end of summer. I mean, definitely 2H26. So that that storyline of getting that Fed chair in there and seeing how that new Fed reacts is a back end of 26. And then we have the midterms election back end of 26. So the storylines are lining up to be quite dramatic and I think the volatility probably continues with crypto along with the I trade. So it'll be an exciting 26, but there's going to be a lot to parse through.
- [27:33]
Brendan
Yeah, there is, man. And I mean, I think there's a lot of questions as well. Like, you're right, there's midterms coming up. And so I'm obviously like either the stock market and I would argue now the crypto market plays a little bit of a role in that, in that you had like in the last election, believe it or not. I mean, it was a serious voting point. People had a lot of crypto, they felt like they weren't treated right and that kind of shifted their views about how crypto would be looked at. So if crypto prices are down a lot going into the midterm elections, again, we never take a side left or right over here. But I think it's okay to recognize that if crypto is down a lot after people thought that they were voting for better stuff. And listen, it's not the job of the government to prop up the crypto market as well. So I think there's that to understand. But, you know, that's just the way that human emotion works. Right. If the stock market was in the absolute gutter, guess what? More people are probably going to vote for the opposing party. That's just the way it works. I think you could probably say the same thing for crypto. You know, crypto, a lot of altcoins have been in the gutter for a bit now and people are hurt by it. Right. The average altcoin holder is not in a super happy place for the moment, but, you know, maybe that's a factor that comes in here. So is there some sort of bump? Are they going to try to do something? You know, we'll see. But you're right in the sense that midterms are going to offer a lot of pressure from the Fed side and you have that. But then from like the election side as well, I think people are going to look at like equities and crypto as, as in terms of their performance. And you know, let's see, let's see what happens. I think it's something to kind of keep in the back of your mind because there always is speculation and it's not something that you can prove, but it's speculation that politicians try to prop up industries going into any election season. And it makes sense. But fingers crossed here I guess, you know, for, for someone who is a crypto holder, again, no political side, for someone who's a crypto holder, I want the, I want the values to go up. So hopefully we see some sort of a bump kind of going into that and in the very least it gives us some long opportunities or some take profit opportunities or something. But you know what else we have TiVo, we have the three big threats and we, you referenced this earlier and I want to come back to it because there is a little bit of fear just, you know, about the current state of bitcoin. I've spent some time, I just, you know, we've talked to Matt Hogan and we've talked to some, some different asset managers and some big people in the space, you know, even sharply. We just talked to them about this and you know, stay tuned for that pod, it'll be coming out soon. But I think there's three primary things that you need to look at on bitcoin right now in terms of the threat. Number one is bitcoin's underperformance, right? People have looked at gold, they've looked at silver, they've looked at the stock market, you know, things like NASDAQ and the S and P. And they've said, you know, why is bitcoin, why has crypto been underperforming so much compared to these other verticals? You know, they all kind of continue to go to new highs, float around the all time highs. You know, bitcoin and crypto are just not there and they haven't been there for months. So I think that's the first threat and the first pain point is kind of the underperformance that we've seen. Number two. And some of these are going to tie into each other. So just let me get through all of them before, you know, we get angry and we type at me. But number two is The AI trade. Right. There's been a lot of attention around this AI trade. And I think number one, that has stolen some market share. You know, people who are investing in crypto, I think that that has stolen some of the capital that probably would have gone towards crypto. People are all about this AI trade in this tech trade and we're seeing just a ton of attention come on that end. Now that, I mean, if you look at NASDAQ, it's up 60% since April. I mean, that's almost unheard of, Nasdaq being up 60% since April. And there's been no double digit pullbacks so far. And so it kind of begs the question, like, hey, eventually it's natural to get a 10 to 20% pullback, especially running 60% in six months or something like that. You know, averaging your annual return every single month for six months straight. It's crazy. So at some point, you know, there's going to be a pullback from this AI trade and probably more continuation to the upside after that, but at some point there's going to be probably a 10 to 20% pullback. And I've even heard Tom Lee and other people talk about this idea and the question is, okay, well what kind of ripple effects does that have on crypto? You know, if, if there have been a lot of favorable factors for the crypto market. Right, right. Very positive administration, very positive regulation. You have rates being cut consistently, you have tech booming, you have metals booming, you have everything kind of working in crypto's favor and it's, you know, lagging a little bit. You know, what happens if the macro conditions worsen a little bit more and NASDAQ isn't doing so well and equities aren't, you know, could that have some downside exposure? And I think so. You know, I think that's what people are afraid. You know, If Nasdaq pulls 10, 15, 20%, what's going to happen to the price of bitcoin and crypto? And I think there's a little bit of fear around that and that whole AI thing softening the third one is just that large liquidation event. And that was the big thing that has impacted crypto. So when people look, why has and ask why has crypto been underperforming? It's largely due to that liquidation event, TiVo. I mean, the largest single day liquidation that we've ever seen, about $20 billion in liquidations, is a critical event. And the ripple effects have continued to be felt throughout all of the crypto market. And so I think that is playing a role in point number one, which was bitcoin's underperformance. And I think that that is something that we're hopefully beginning to get over. Maybe we have another move down. You know, I can't tell the future, but I think those are the three things that are on the front of everyone's mind. And so they're saying, okay, well, there's been underperformance. There has been this AI trade that we're nervous about, and then there is the large liquidation event as well. And I think that has been the number one contributor and the number one factor to why crypto has been underperforming and why we've been seeing the price action. So we're going to continue to kind of COVID those. But again, we like to talk about all of the sides. I think it's important to look at the bullish, the bearish, the good, the bad, everything in between. And that's the point of the show is, you know, listen, we talk about a lot of the good stuff. I mean, because we believe that most of the stuff happening in the space is good, but we also don't want to just sugarcoat it and say everything's sunshine and rainbows. Like, we like to talk about everything that's going on so that you all that are listening in can get the full picture. And so there are some things to kind of just be wary about. And again, in the long term, I want to clarify, we think crypto is going to do great things. We think it's going to go to new. We think bitcoin can hit new all time highs. We think it can go a lot higher. We're not worried about the long term, but in the immediate timeframe we want to talk about everything. And that includes some of the bad things. TiVo.
- [34:30]
TiVo
Well, and I'd love your opinion on kind of like what I said, where the money got distributed elsewhere in risk assets. Right. Like I think I said this on the show. I had a quote and I didn't think about it as deep as I have like kind of Monday morning quarterbacking it. But I was like, everybody's asking where altcoin season is. I go, it's happening. Look at the stock market. Look at like circle, when Circle IPO, it was boom, you know, 6, 700 Gemini go boom, 100. And then all these quantum computing stocks went up 500, down 70, back up 600. And that's all happened in this year. Yeah, that's, that's stuff that we saw in the altcoin market years ago. And I was kind of saying it like tongue in cheek, like, oh, where's altcoin season? We thought it would maybe transition into crypto a little bit more, especially the altcoins a little bit more this year and it hasn't. But there was a lot of risk taking, high flying leverage, liquidity in the crypto market and in the traditional market as well with quantum stocks, AI stocks. And I feel like just kind of that liquidity and capital maybe got dispersed among different asset classes more than what anybody thought, really.
- [35:40]
Brendan
I think you're right. And kind of feeding into the whole cycle. I mean people are looking at it now and saying, you know, will the four year cycle hold? And is this going to be a thorn in our side over the next year? And it's interesting and we've talked about this a couple of times, but almost everyone that we've had on the podcast is no longer believing in the four year cycle. It doesn't matter who it is. If you're from a bank, you're an asset manager, you're someone who's building in the space, you're from a treasury, you know, whatever. I would say 90 plus percent of the people are disagreeing with the idea of a four year cycle and it kind of continuing in the same way that we've seen it before. And this is another headline where, you know, Bitwise CEO Matt Hogan says bitcoin will break the four year cycle and set new all time highs next year. Now we bring this up because we did a pad, a podcast with Matt Hogan. When did that come out? What, a couple of weeks ago. TiVo?
- [36:31]
TiVo
Yeah, like two weeks ago.
- [36:32]
Brendan
Two weeks ago. He talked about this two weeks ago on the podcast. So if you're not tuning into these podcasts, we urge you to, we, I mean this article came out this morning at what is it, 5am it came out five hours ago. We put out the same information two weeks ago because we have access and we get to talk to all the leaders in the space and we love doing it and we bring it to you all before it's mainstream, before it's in the news, before it's publicly available to everyone else. We are talking to these people and publishing this stuff. So shout out to the podcast, shout out to TiVo for booking these things and getting these people and setting it all up and orchestrating it. But you get all the information here first. You get it here first. Everyone. So had to pat ourselves on the back a little bit thievo because I think we deserved it. Kind of getting this info a couple weeks in advance. But listen, I agree, I would agree with Matt Hogan here and with a lot of the other podcasts. I think that we are seeing the structure, the structure of the four year cycle break. And we've been seeing it for years. In fact, you know, let me share one quick chart and then we will move on. But I just want everyone to kind of visualize what this looks like, because you've seen the structure of the four year cycle slowly start to shift and break in recent years. So if we look at this real fast, I mean, we look at bitcoin dominance, for example, here's what those cycles look like. You can see the 2017 cycle where Bitcoin dominance runs up and then altcoin season begins very quick, the entire cycle very quick, next cycle a bit longer, and then it goes up. Now what we're seeing right now, much more elongated. So you're seeing not only the volatility, but also the time that it takes to do these cycles. You're seeing them very, not even very. You're seeing them extend and elongate and become less volatile over longer periods of time, time. And you're seeing them just kind of dissipate and go away. And so when you're looking at it, I think this is important to understand and looking at this chart of how altcoin season and how the four year cycle has changed and it looks as if we're starting to break that cycle and move away from it, at least in the sense that we're used to it from some of the 20, 21, 2017 cycles. It kind of looks like we are shifting away from that. And I, I don't think that that's necessarily a bad thing because they were volatile and they were quick. You know, it was, it was a crazy time for sure. But as the industry grows, I think that that's just expected.
- [39:02]
TiVo
Yeah, I think, I think it's a great point. It's a great point. And that's what people have said, especially for the bigger assets, is maybe volatility dampens down a little bit, but maybe not also like, you know, Bitcoin's down what, 30% and the industry's dead. Actually, we'll, we'll pinpoint that for the end because that's how we're gonna wrap up the show is talking about how all the times the sky's been falling and crypto's been dead and bitcoin's dead. We'll save that for the end. Of the show. A fun little lighthearted tidbit there, but let's get back into the fundamentals. As you said, the bitwise news got plucked from our podcast. Credit to us. You're in the right place for listening to all the news that you need to educate yourself. But what's going on, Brendan? Is there anything bullish? Is there any good news going on? Of course. That's literally all this show's about. Again, I said at the top of the program we're gonna change it. The fundamentals 101. How about, how about JP Morgan? I mean I came up with the term. McNutt loves this one. Jamie. Crypto diamond. JP Morgan's launching a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum. And so this is kind of the theory is, you know, long term technological advancement is, is it going to be. The fundamentals are going to be built before the price action follows. That's the thesis again. That's the thesis from I think anybody who's studying, you know, one on one of investments. Am I investing in this today or am I investing in this? Because it's going to grow in years and that's what you know, the average investor should be looking at for any company. That's the stuff that Tom Lee and Kathy Wood go on TV and talk about all the time. But friend, our friends over at Milk Road just kind of had a nice little write up here. The, the, the, the fun name is going to be called Money M O N Y and just a normal money market fund. But the fact that it is going to be built on Ethereum I think is really interesting. Again JP Morgan seems to be siding with, with Ethereum from all the news that we've seen. They also will touch on Bitcoin next. But it's, it's going to open up to obviously some larger investors, individuals with at least 5 million and institutions with 25 million. There's going to be a million dollar minimum. But again, again just very interesting that they're building this. I think, I don't think this means that all their money market funds overnight are going to turn into this, but I think it's a test. Okay, how is this going to work? Is it going to be clean? Is it going to bring more yield? What options are you going to be able to do when you're in this money market fund? How can you lend out? You know, and maybe there's some staking options and getting more yield and there's more options of what you can do with your money in it. I think it's going to, it's going to be interesting to see and the success of it will be whether it grows or not. But it's something to keep an eye on.
- [41:36]
Brendan
Yeah, it is. And like it's a lot of money. I mean it's not a million, it's not 10 million, it's a hundred million dollar fund. It's, it's crazy. And they're not the first people to do this kind of thing. And you know, we've seen different forms of like tokenized funds and blockchain funds and we've seen different ones from a lot of these big players, you know, most notably blackrock and I believe Vaneck has one, although theirs might be on Solana, but there's a bunch of groups that have these and JP Morgan is saying, hey, we see the value here, we're going to expand into this and it's just part of a larger trend. It's hard to believe that if J.P. morgan, right, the world's largest bank, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, and a lot of these other ones as well. Obviously if they're betting on this, it's hard to believe that Ethereum is going to be going anywhere. If they are just starting their building now, if they are all betting on this, number one, I don't think it's going anywhere. Number two, I think it plays a role in the future. And so how do we get exposure? Well, we look at Ethereum in terms of exposure. So when we see prices down, you know, 40% or whatever it is right now from the highs, I still view it as a discount man. And again, you know, maybe we have a little bit more downside. We talked about some of the catalysts, but when in doubt, zoom out. I think it's hard to have a pretty negative view of Ethereum way down the road. And you know, we can't aim and predict the future, but when you see all this stuff happening, it's really hard to bet against Ethereum. Right. And so that's my big takeaway. Yeah, feeding into that point. You know what's another huge part of Ethereum, it's stable coins. And even those continue to grow. We have two articles for this that we can show everyone.
- [43:22]
TiVo
One more thing, one more thing about JP Morgan just before we move on to stablecoins is they're, and they're accepting collateral for loans. And you've kind of seen this, a bunch of different banks, institutions and trading vehicles are starting to accept, you know, Bitcoin as collateral, which I think is you know, it's not breaking news that it's being accepted as collateral. They're not the first to do it, but just more and more are starting to do it, which I think again is, is bullish for Bitcoin, just the, the more and more acceptance. But let's move on to. I know Ethereum is more tied to stablecoins, so we can start talking about that.
- [43:55]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, Red DOT just raised $107 million on their Series B to expand their stablecoin payments platform. So I mean, there's more happening here. Again, they're continuing to raise money. Not a small amount of money either. There's a lot of attention, there's a lot of demand for infrastructure to be built out for this stuff and that's why it's happening in the first place. So stablecoins infrastructure building demand is increasing. That's why you're seeing this. They're raising $107 million. Don't let it go under the radar, you know, kind of take it for what it is. And then the next one, Visa is going to be launching their stablecoin settlement in, in the US via Circles usdc. And you know, this one's a little bit different because I believe there's going to be, and there already is some structure on Solana in regards to Visa, but they're going to be working with Solana here too. And this kind of paints into our narrative of we don't think that there's a one winner beats. All right, we're not Maxis over here. We don't believe in just Bitcoin. We don't believe in just Ethereum. We don't believe in just Solana or just XRP or fill in the blank. You know, we believe that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, like all these blockchains can, can coexist alongside each other and then they can be used for different groups for different things. And right now it does look like a lot of institutional demand is more so Ethereum and more retail demand is Solana. But that's starting to shift. And you know, we're seeing both, both get a ton of activity and a ton of interest. So you're looking at Visa, you're looking at red, red dot pay. A lot of stuff going on here. In fact, there's a picture right below Those, those links TiVo and let's throw that one on the screen too because it feeds in to what we were just talking about. And you know, yeah, I mean, look at this. Banks are settling payments with Visa on Solana, and they're already at three point. They're already at a $3.5 billion run rate. And so what this means is that, you know, as it says in the picture, the settlement pilot reaches $3.5 billion in annualized run rate as of the end of November, according to Visa. So, I mean, guys, this stuff is coming. It really is, and we're moving fast and we're setting it up, but it still looks like we're in the early innings of this where, like, the infrastructure is still getting set. The kind of onboarding has just begun. I don't think we're in the late stages of this, and we're seeing, like, headlines like this would, I would say, aim us more towards the start or maybe the second or third inning as opposed to the end. So keep that in the back of your mind. But just a lot going on.
- [46:32]
TiVo
Yeah. And there's. And there's people that continue to buy. So I think, you know, we cover anybody that makes big buys on the show. Obviously, Sailor this week bought some more bitcoin. And Cathie Wood's buying. She's. She's selling. She's literally selling stocks to go buy, you know, different crypto. I mean, I guess there's still stocks, but crypto, you know, favored stocks. She's pulling out of some of her AI trade. I know she trimmed some of her Tesla in there. They're going and they're buying. Bit mine. They're buying basically Tom Lee's Ethereum Treasury. They're buying Hood, I saw. She's buying some. She's buying some. I have the full list here. Circle, Bullish, coin, bmnr. So it's like, you know, this is. This is where the. This is where some of the big money's flowing. And, and these, these things aren't, you know, six months, a year, even two years. These are longer term, you know, plays traditionally for these large. These large whales.
- [47:26]
Brendan
They are man. And, you know, people have memed on Kathy in recent years, but let me say her performance here this year is mighty good. You know, you look at ARK off those lows, she's been crushing it. And now, you know, she's. You're right, she's getting more crypto exposure, selling off other stocks, looking at crypto as an ultimate area of value down here. And we love to see it.
- [47:50]
TiVo
Yeah, one year for Ark. 30%. Can't, you know, can't complain about that. All time. All time for Ark. 290%. That goes back to 2015. She had a big run up in Covid and then obviously crashed down with everything else. ARK hasn't gotten back to its highs, but I think it transitioned from kind of, if you're talking about ARK specifically it was that the change of the Internet Covid, that Internet play and buying the bottom of all those Internet stocks like a zoom and then transitioning out of that during the downturn of 22 and into this AI slash crypto trade is going to take ARK to new all time highs if it can get there. No good.
- [48:33]
Brendan
No, I was going to say, I mean you look at it, you know, up 30% on the year, NASDAQ's up, I think 19%. I think SPY's up 15%, Bitcoin's red on the year. So like, you know, she's been outperforming almost all of the major assets here.
- [48:47]
TiVo
She takes some heat and rightfully so. I mean, everybody should have, you know, we hold ourselves accountable, accountable too to stuff that we make calls, especially inside the community. But it's, you know, you're not always going to be right. Nobody has a crystal ball. But it's that long term, long term view and long term play. But I think I wanted to end the show on a fun note here. It's just, there's just so much negativity and I've talked about kind of that A block, B block rule right on live tv. It's like, hey, when whenever bitcoin is going up and it's flying high, it's the A block, it's the hottest thing in the world, everybody loves it, they want to talk about it. And then when it goes down like it has in a violent way again, it's back in the A block or the B block and everybody's crapping on it. And the same people that were saying, oh yeah, it looks like the momentum, it's going to fly higher, saying, hey, what, what does this asset bring? Like, just, you know, is it going to go lower? So I think we just got to remember when you're in the trenches, like we are every week, really every day for us. And then if you're listening with us and tune in every week, it's, you know, there's ups and downs and I think you got to remember when, you know, you're really, really high, there's going to be some fun, high stuff and, and fun clips. But let's go back to, let's go back to, you know, the lows of 2022, you know, and this, this is, again, this is how I'm seeing people talk, not as bad, I guess. But let's go back to Jim Cramer in 2022 talking about crypto and bitcoin.
- [50:11]
Jim Cramer
I do know that again, the faith of the American people. Shocked, just shocked. I mean, I still think that, I think that crypto, I mean I sold them a crypto, I announced everything on TV what I did with crypto, but I would not touch crypto in a million years because I wouldn't trust the deposit bank.
- [50:31]
TiVo
And you're making no distinction between centralized, decentralized.
- [50:34]
Jim Cramer
They fought regulation, they didn't want regulation. And you don't have regulation. So if you have your money in any of those. Look, I'm not calling you an idiot. I'm just saying you're using a lot of blind fit. And I like to have my money at J.P. morgan and I check on Monday to see whether my balance is there.
- [50:52]
Brendan
There.
- [50:53]
Jim Cramer
It feels good.
- [50:54]
TiVo
Look at those prices.
- [50:55]
Jim Cramer
Getting your money out. When I, I had money, I'm not going to mention the firm that I had my money in, but it was a fight to get the money out.
- [51:02]
Brendan
Is that an $11 Solana and a 34 Coinbase?
- [51:06]
TiVo
$11 Solana, $34 Coinbase, 1200 Ethereum. Sixteen thousand dollar Bitcoin. Jeez, these are the days and credit to us. We were making episodes. We were making episodes and, and we're still here. So again, sell all your crypto. Wouldn't touch it in a million years. Even Jim Cramer himself has bought crypto since then. But since he said that, you know, Bitcoin's up 500. So don't get wrapped up. You gotta stay level headed. You got to stay educated. You know, we're not financial advisors, we're just friends talking crypto. This isn't personal financial advice. But when, when all hope is lost and things are dead, like take a step back, stay educated. If you're still listening to this episode on the back end, you're obviously doing the right thing. But again, this is when, when everything's dead and we're not touching it and it's going to zero. I don't know, sometimes that's, that's the best time and it's, it's an interesting spot to be having these conversations again with Bitcoin at 80, 85,000 and not 20,000. Right. So like if it go, can it go lower? Absolutely, absolutely. If it has a typical retracement of what, 70, 80% of past cycles, I mean it could go down to 40, 50, 30. It could go to any price, right? That's what the market is. But it's interesting to see the sky is falling at 80k. And we said this so many times before when we were in fear and Bitcoin was 105k, and we were like, we were hitting the fear and I was like, man, this is. This is awesome. We're hitting fear and Bitcoin's 100k now we're in extreme fear. It's 85k. But I thought that was important to, to kind of go back and fun. But, you know. Yeah, it's, It's. It's one of those times where, you know, don't lose your. Unless. Unless your thesis has changed. If you've done your research and your thesis changed, that's one thing. Lose your conviction over the sky is falling crowd because that's the. That's when you're on one side of the boat.
- [53:01]
Brendan
Yeah, absolutely, man. Well, I think that's going to wrap us up TiVo. You know, we're almost 50 minutes into it, but, man, we appreciate everyone watching. I've seen some of you in the chat as I've looked over, giving your support, tuning in, saying, what's up? People telling us, hey, we're avid pod listeners and, you know, they're trying to tune into the lives now. Good to have everyone here. Love to see even. Hey, even McNutson here. I see him in the chat box. Bucks, man. Everyone. Thank you all for tuning in. It has been another great episode of the crypto 101 rundown. And we'll see all of you at the same time. Well, not the same time, same place. Next week we're taking.
- [53:37]
TiVo
Yeah, we can spitball that. We will do one. I think I have one scheduled if anybody wants to join. They can hop on. I know. I think McNutt and I are scheduled for next Tuesday. We're gonna promote that one and then I will. I'll talk you offline. We're going to try and do some like a year interview or 26 outlook just for fun. We won't do that live. And then we'll try and build a backlog of interviews and content. So even though we will be taking a break over the holidays to be with our families, you know, the podcast channel and the YouTube will be active.
- [54:10]
Brendan
There you go. Well, once again, everyone, thank you all for tuning in and we'll see all of you very, very soon. And if we don't see you before the. The holidays, we hope you have a great holiday and we will see you afterwards. Take care.
- [54:33]
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