CRYPTO 101 Podcast Summary

Episode: Crypto Rundown: A.I. VS Crypto Liquidity & JP Morgan Builds on Ethereum
Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman
Date: December 17, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into current macroeconomic forces shaping the crypto markets, institutional moves like JP Morgan building on Ethereum, competition between the ongoing AI investment trends and crypto liquidity, and shifting narratives around the classic four-year crypto cycle. Brendan and TiVo discuss the disconnect between strong fundamentals and bearish price action, highlight critical data points, and challenge prevalent industry assumptions—all aimed at empowering retail investors with the knowledge to navigate today’s volatile crypto landscape.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Macroeconomic Forces & Their Impact on Crypto

• Unemployment Data Releases

  • [05:24] Brendan explains that U.S. unemployment numbers came in at 4.6%, a four-year high, above the expected 4.5%.
  • Though it's a bearish macro indicator, paradoxically, the market sees it as bullish for risk assets like crypto due to increased chances of Fed rate cuts.

    “We are back in the cycle of good news is bad news, bad news is good news… The fact that we have worse than expected employment data means a higher chance for a rate cut… which the crypto market has historically responded positively to.” (Brendan, 07:01)

  • TiVo ties broader risk markets (AI, equities, crypto) together, noting that new risk “sloshes” between sectors, especially as AI has dominated high-risk investing lately.

• October’s Historic Crypto Liquidation

  • [08:38] TiVo revisits the “biggest liquidation in crypto history” on October 10, 2025, noting industry figures hint at but not revealing specifics. The aftershocks still impact market sentiment.

2. NASDAQ Moves Toward 24/7 Trading — Crypto’s Pressure on TradFi

• NASDAQ Announces 24/7 Trading Rollout
  • [13:47] Brendan and TiVo discuss breaking news: NASDAQ will introduce round-the-clock trading on weekdays by mid-2026, with possible full 24/7 rollout later.
  • Crypto’s non-stop, outage-resistant markets are pressuring traditional finance (TradFi) to adapt.
  • Open questions linger about rollout logistics—will this mean on-chain trading or centralized systems?

    "That's kind of the beauty of the decentralized model… in a centralized model, that's not the case. How long can they run 24/7 before something needs to be upgraded or changed?" (Brendan, 18:31)

  • TiVo notes this may further increase volatility for retail, as constant market access tempts impulsive trades at all hours.

3. Current Market Structure & Technicals

• Bitcoin and Altcoin Analysis

  • [21:05] Brendan: Bitcoin’s in a short-term downtrend, breaking recent bullish structure—below all major moving averages. Altcoins have been in a mid-term bear phase (about 6 months).

    "I'm okay doing some dollar-cost averaging there, but I'm not trying to do anything too crazy until… we get a little bit of a clearer picture." (Brendan, 25:29)

  • Emphasizes patience and risk management—"sitting on hands," DCA into long-conviction assets but waiting for more clarity.

• Macro & Election Cycle

  • Anticipates how the 2026 Fed Chair transition and U.S. midterms could impact both TradFi and crypto.

    “If crypto prices are down a lot going into the midterm elections… that's just the way human emotion works.” (Brendan, 27:55)

4. Three Major Threats Facing Crypto

Brendan lays out three main concerns:

1. Bitcoin’s Underperformance
   • [30:00] Compared with gold, silver, stocks—crypto’s lagging.
2. The AI Trade Siphoning Capital
   • AI’s year-long bull trend diverted risk money from crypto; NASDAQ up 60% since April without cooling off.

   “The risk on money has gone different ways… that liquidity and capital maybe got dispersed among different asset classes more than what anybody thought.” (TiVo, 34:29)

3. October’s Massive Crypto Liquidation
   • The "largest single day liquidation we've ever seen, about $20 billion," continues to weigh on performance and sentiment.

• Long-term, they’re bullish—but advise caution in the short term.

5. The “Four-Year Cycle” Debate & Matt Hogan’s Perspective

• [36:32] Industry consensus is shifting away from the rigid “four-year cycle” clockwork.
• Bitwise’s Matt Hogan, guest weeks earlier, argues Bitcoin will break the cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026.

  “Almost everyone that we've had on the podcast is no longer believing in the four year cycle… I think we are shifting away from that.” (Brendan, 35:40)

• Bitcoin dominance and altcoin cycles are elongating with less volatility, suggesting market maturation.

6. JP Morgan, Ethereum, and Tokenization

• JP Morgan Launches Tokenized Money Market Fund
  • [39:02] Fund is called “M-O-N-Y,” built on Ethereum.
  • Minimums: $1M (individual), $5M (institution), total fund $100M+. Test case for tokenized TradFi.

    “If JP Morgan… BlackRock… are betting on this, it’s hard to believe Ethereum is going anywhere.” (Brendan, 41:36)

• Ethereum’s Growing Role for Institutional Finance
  • More institutions are starting to accept crypto collateral, especially Bitcoin, for loans and trading.

7. Stablecoin Adoption & Institutional Infrastructure

• Massive Stablecoin Developments
  • [43:55] “Red Dot” raises $107M for stablecoin settlement infrastructure.
  • [44:33] Visa expands stablecoin settlement using Circle’s USDC, going live on Solana as well.
  • These moves suggest we’re early in an institutional shift to blockchain rails.

8. Whales & Big Names: What Institutions Are Buying

• Michael Saylor & Cathie Wood Accumulation
  • [46:31] Saylor buys more Bitcoin; Cathie Wood sells some AI plays (like Tesla) to buy crypto-related stocks (Bitwise, Coinbase, Hood, Circle, etc.)
  • ARK’s long-term performance remains strong—"up 30% on the year, 290% since 2015."

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Crypto’s Repeated Death
  • [50:10] Jim Cramer in 2022:

    “I would not touch crypto in a million years… I like to have my money at JP Morgan.”

  • TiVo’s reflection:

    “Sell all your crypto. Wouldn't touch it in a million years… but since he said that, Bitcoin's up 500%.” (TiVo, 51:05)

• On Investor Sentiment
  • “When all hope is lost and things are dead, like, take a step back, stay educated… that's the best time.” (TiVo, 51:22)
  • “Lose your conviction over the sky is falling crowd because that's when you're on one side of the boat.” (TiVo, 52:57)

Notable Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | 05:24 | Unemployment Data and Macro “Good News, Bad News” Cycles | | 11:06 | October Liquidation Event, AI vs. Crypto liquidity flows | | 13:47 | Breaking: NASDAQ’s move to 24/7 Trading | | 21:05 | Charting Bitcoin, Altcoin structure, risk management | | 27:32 | Impact of Fed, Elections, Policy on Crypto/Equities | | 34:29 | AI trade vs. altcoin season—capital moved to other assets | | 35:40 | The end of the four-year crypto cycle? | | 39:02 | JP Morgan’s money market fund on Ethereum | | 43:55 | Stablecoin infrastructure, Visa’s on-chain settlement | | 46:31 | Whale activity: Saylor & Cathie Wood’s crypto exposure | | 50:10 | Jim Cramer 2022 “Crypto is Dead” reflection |

Takeaways & Tone

• Educational and Cautiously Bullish: The hosts combine technical rigor with a conversational, at times humorous back-and-forth, always circling back to critical thinking and research over FOMO or panic.
• Contextualizes Macro with Crypto: Ties macro data and institutional trends directly to crypto sentiment and price action.
• Investor Resilience: Repeatedly stress staying level-headed, detecting emotional extremes, and focusing on long-term fundamentals as crypto cycles through periods of hype and despair.

Final Note

Despite short-term headwinds—AI hype, market liquidations, underperformance versus TradFi—the industry foundations remain robust. Institutional adoption (e.g., JP Morgan, Visa), stablecoin rails, and broadening mainstream trading access highlight crypto’s ongoing integration into the global financial system, even if price action lags behind.
Hosts urge listeners: Stay educated, do your own research, and don’t let short-term sentiment shake long-term conviction.