← CRYPTO 101
Loading summary
Transcript43 lines
- [00:00]
Brendan
Foreign.
- [00:10]
TiVo
Welcome back to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. And we are kicking things off really, really strong. This week we have Bitcoin reclaiming $94,000. Yes, you heard that right. Bitcoin is now above $94,000. We're seeing altcoins rally right behind bitcoin. It looks like a full scale reversal and we're going to talk about kind of the future of the crypto space here. Now there's a couple of catalysts that are driving this behind the scenes and we want to make sure that we touch on those as well. For starters, we see the trade war deescalating and leading up to this, bitcoin was already one of the top performing assets. We've made a lot of content about how is, how it's been outperforming the tradfi markets, how it's been outperforming large equities, small equities, commodities, metals, even the dollar itself. Right. And so now what we're starting to see is an accelerated upside. A break of the downtrend and bitcoin is going absolutely bonkers. Back to the upside, we have lots of altcoins moving, 10, 20, even one that we're going to talk about that's up 40% or it was up 40% as of yesterday. And one of the big things that people are keeping an eye on Here is the M2 money supply. We're going to talk about how that affects the crypto markets as well. And then finally we're going to talk about one of the most sought after topics. It's the topic of altcoins. Will we ever see an altcoin season again? How far away could altcoin season be? We want to talk about it. In fact, I think it's a lot closer than people might think because spoiler alert, we've seen 72 ETFs, 72 crypto related ETFs that are awaiting approval in the SEC. There's a lot to talk about. We want to make sure that we run through it all. But of course I can't do it without my good buddy tivo. Tivo. What a lineup we have today.
- [02:05]
Brendan
Yeah, it's, it's an exciting day. It's an exciting week for, for, I think it's an exciting week for investors, especially long term investors who, you know, stayed the course, didn't get shaken out or anything and just, just the news flow again. It's been about a month, right, of just absolute whiplash. First to the downside, then the reversal, then the, the, you know, the back to the downside. So it's one of those things where if you were somebody that, you know, cooler heads prevailed and had a community like, I know Brendan and I talk before the show and text each other all the time. We have our team and inside of our community that we, you know, talk to you guys all the time if you're looking for that extra help. And specifically, the keyword is community, so you're not going through it alone. Check the links out down, down there below if you're interested in joining or if you just come here every week, whether it's the YouTube or the podcast that again, is completely free for you guys. You know, this is how you, you stay calm and you stay educated and understand, you know, hey, it's not always to the upside, it's not always to the downside. There's a bigger picture here, and that's what we try to deliver you guys every week. So I think, yeah, it's very validating. Again, when we have these type of weeks, right, Brendan, where, you know, we've kind of sift through everything and even though, you know, the house was on fire, the neighborhood was on fire, you know, we didn't panic. We just, you know, called the fire department and had to inspect the, the damage and move forward from it. Right. So I think, I think it's, it's validating just to kind of be here when, when you see, you know, the price, action and the panic dissolve. Because again, it wasn't, it wasn't really too much fundamental. It was, it was kind of just one guy, you know, making the decision. And again, he is the president, but, you know, that's the markets we have to trade and it's not easy. So let's, let's break down the news because it's certainly 180.
- [04:00]
TiVo
Yeah. I mean, before we even get into the news, let's just show off the charts. I think that's gotta be one of the most exciting parts of this, right? Because we're all making money when things are going up, right? So long as you're not short. Me and TiVo were joking before this about how the Bears are just getting utterly destroyed on this move to the upside. And we've warned, we've said, hey, this is going to be a volatile market. We've talked about how when this gets resolved, when we start to see the fear and all the FUD and all the uncertainty start to dissipate. We were saying time and time again, the markets are going to absolutely rip and bitcoin is going to be even more volatile than whatever we see from tradfi to the upside. And that's really what we're getting here, is this just accelerated move upwards for bitcoin. Now, I don't want to say, hey, we're not going to see any more red days. That's just simply not true. We're going to remain volatile. We're going to have a lot of upside potential, but here and there, we're going to have pullbacks. We're going to have red days. Not everything just goes straight up into the right. And so I want to kind of be a voice of reason here and say, hey, I am long. I am very, very excited. I think we have plenty of more upside to go. However, it is not all green. We're going to have pullbacks. We're going to have some retracements. Some of them might even still be a little bit scary. But it's on those dips where the real, real longing opportunities come, where I think I'm going to be the most bullish. And it's not just on bitcoin anymore. It's on a lot of altcoins as we're starting to see some really, really solid breakouts. So let's just throw up the chart here. Let's just kind of look what's happening over here on the bitcoin front, because what we are getting here is that rally starting on Sunday. Now, Sunday we didn't do a lot. We came down to around 83, 84K, rallied up about 1 1/2 percent. The next day, we saw a little bit more of an extended rally. We rallied 3 to 4%. Then yesterday is where the big candle started coming in. We pushed through that ceiling of 94,000 dol, hit a new high of $94,600 this morning, which is Wednesday, April 23rd. And now, guess what? We're starting to see a little bit of a retracement, and it's perfectly okay. If you remember our last week's episode, we said, where is the primary resistance for bitcoin? Well, it's right inside this pocket. The low to mid-90s, right? We said, hey, this is an area that used to be support. There's kind of this goldilocks zone in here where bitcoin's likely to see a little bit of struggle. So we're going to come in here, we're going to test it as resistance. And guess what? So long as we form a higher low, maybe we even retrace back down in the moving averages. It's possible we even pierce back down into the 80,000 somewhere and still remain massively bullish. We're very green on the week. So as bitcoin's pushing up here, you can see the break of this downtrend. As we've seen all these rejections, it's now over. Bitcoin broke out of this, broke through the 20 day moving average, through the 50 day moving average, through the 200 day moving average, into this previous consolidation zone, through this downtrend, through this downtrend line, and we're through all of that.
- [07:11]
Brendan
Have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't Dared tried? With Plus500 futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity you you'll be able to trade in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as $100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gas and much more. Explore equity indices like Energy, Metals, Forex and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with +500. With over 20 years of experience, +500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us. +500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify and this is not personal financial advice. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.
- [08:06]
Indeed Ad
You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday. How can you find amazing candidates Fast? Easy? Just use Indeed. Stop struggling to get your job post seen on other job sites with Indeed sponsored Jobs. Your post jumps to the top of the page for your relevant candidates so you can reach the people you want faster. According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs posted directly on indeed have 45% more applications than non sponsored jobs. Don't wait any longer. Speed up your hiring right now with Indeed and listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit. To get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com pod just go to indeed.com podKatz12 right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring Indeed is all you need. At bp, we've reset our strategy with a focused downstream, a growing upstream and disciplined investment in the transit position. See how we'll grow shareholder value@bp.com reset.
- [09:18]
TiVo
It's a really, really good sign and this is coming after a double bottom and bouncing off of our previous all time high over here. Right. So all the bullish signs are here. Again, we're going to have retracements, we're going to have pullbacks, but that's where I'm looking to get the most excited and the most long on bitcoin here. So just being a little bit more, you know, maybe cautious in the short term because we've seen this huge extended move to the upside, about 12, 13% in Bitcoin just in the first two to three, four trading days of this week. And now I'm staying optimistic. But you're saying, hey, you know, we're heading into a little bit of a more turbulent zone up here of resistance. Let's see what kind of pullbacks we can get. And overall, again, I'm long biased on bitcoin. We saw bitcoin dominance yesterday, push up to the highest level that we have seen this cycle and it's starting to retrace a little bit today. But this is the highest level of bitcoin dominance that we have seen since February of 2021. It's really, really high. And this is significant and we'll touch on this later, but when we talk about Bitcoin dominance every four years alongside the halving, it goes up to 70%, then crashes. This is when the altcoin market happens, then it goes up to 70% four years later and then it crashes and alt season happens, then it goes up to 70% and that's where we are rapidly approaching now. And guess what, when we start to see this pivot over, that's when I think the real altcoin season begins. But I do think that a lot of them are still on these, these fire sale like discounts. The last thing that I want to talk about over here is just like the overall thoughts of is this a reversal for bitcoin? And I think it is. I'm going to call it for what I see it. I'm not saying I have a crystal ball, I'm not saying that I can't be wrong, but I do think that, you know, I for one am very convinced here. This is the reversal moment for bitcoin. I don't know what else we could need. We have a double bottom. We bounced off of our Previous high, we're breaking through resistance points, we're breaking to higher highs, we're breaking through the moving averages. We're about to see a short term golden cross between the 50 and 20 day moving averages and we're breaking back upwards into previous consolidation zones. I don't know what else we could ask for. Maybe a higher low, maybe a bounce off the 200 day moving average. But the bulk of the bullish information is just like slapping us in the face. And so I think that, you know, at least for myself, I don't need to overcomplicate it more than it is. And on top of this, you know, that's just on the technical side, on the fundamental side, there's so much that we need to talk about. And you know, I, that's where I want to transition us here. But TiVo, I mean, did I miss anything there? I'm just, I'm excited about the technicals. I'm, I'm a chart guy, I'm a trading guy and this is everything that I could want to see.
- [12:11]
Brendan
Yeah, man, you, you got me, you got me bowled up. I think the, and I, I love your opinion. I know we're talking about during the week and, and kind of where our discussion is going to lead is, was kind of bitcoin leading us out of it. Just like we kind of could have said, you know, bitcoin kind of led the downtrend of the markets. Like bitcoin was trend heard before the whole tariff fears and all that. And then specifically, obviously this last week, over the weekend and even Monday, right. The markets were down on the J PAL news or Trump, you know, saying that he was going to fire Jay Powell versus kind of being now leading us out. Right. So we're going to talk about the decoupling, which is, is next. But now, now that bitcoin has kind of let us out, is that, is that kind of brighter pastures for all markets? And I think that when the technicals of what you love and study and bring us kind of pair up with the news flow, which is why all markets are green today and, and I guess gonna end up green this week if this news flow stays the same way. Yeah, I mean, there's nothing, like you said, there's nothing more you could really ask for. It's, it's hard to be a bear in that situation. And then again, you know better than I do, but the, the trading, the trading setup, right. It's like, and we've said this many a times is you don't always want to be on the same side of the boat as everybody else. So definitely over the last two weeks, you know, the pessimism and the negativity and the bearishness around the markets has been that side of the boat. So you got it. You got to wonder with, you know, gold at an all time high and short. Like we showed all the charts where whether it was the mass selling for retail since the great financial crisis are the most puts. I know we did that one. I think it was like three weeks ago. We showed like the, the stock market had the most puts since COVID and the great financial crisis. It's like, okay, well all these events, yes, in the time have been super scary and unprecedented and, and the, the, you know, the world was falling and everything was on fire, but at the end of the day markets came out of it and continued to go higher. So you just kind of got to decide, you know, where, where do you stand? You know, do you want to.
- [14:19]
TiVo
Yeah.
- [14:20]
Brendan
Go consensus or do you want to kind of go against the grain a little bit? And I think any major trader or investor that's made tons of money is going to tell you that sometimes you do have to go against the grain. Not, not personal financial advice for anybody. Obviously there's just certain situations where, you know, you might want to be on that other side of the boat that, that not everybody's on.
- [14:41]
TiVo
Yeah, no, I think you're right. You know, generally the masses tend to be wrong. So when everyone was saying we're going to go into a recession, it's going to last years, it's going to have ripple effects and this and that and the bottoms not in. We still have another. I kept seeing people say we have another 15, 20% to the downside. We have at least another 10% below the current lows. And it was like, where are these people getting this, these, these numbers from? And it was like, yeah, you know, it was a little bit scary. But saying that we have to essentially double the move that we've already seen to the downside is like so preposterous that it's so much fear mongering. And I'd say the vast majority of people that were saying that it was just emotional. It wasn't actually like, it wasn't actually analytical. So you know, again, who knows, right? Maybe I eat my words. Maybe everything blows up. Maybe we tank to new lows again. There's a possibility out there. I just don't think it's likely. I just don't. I think that a lot of people are Going to be caught with their pants down here. Everyone that started to scale out, hedge, go short, flip sides like, I think those people are just going to be getting wrecked. And we started to see just capitulation. So in my opinion, you know, again, unless things really escalate and blow up, the worst of this is behind us. And we're seeing this through the fundamentals with the trade war deescalating. So I want to kind of bring us into that topic and what happened. And you know, maybe TiVo we can throw these up on the screen. I know we got a couple of, of headlines we want to show everyone, but the White House says, you know, first off, it's doing very well on the potential trade deal with China. And I know that after we wrote this last night, actually there was a bunch of other tweets that got thrown out there. So this one came out first, it was saying, hey, we're doing very well on a potential trade deal with China. Then we said, you know, what we found out later on is that we are going to be lowering the tariffs in the US on China from 145% to a lower point, likely to around 50%, according to Wall Street Journal. The other thing that was really, really impactful, kind of outside of China was twofold. Number one, we saw that Trump came out and said, hey, I'm not going to be firing Jay Powell. I'm not going to try to do that. It's blown out of proportion. That's not in question. Markets love that, you know, Right. They were really, really scared when that was getting thrown around. And then finally, you know, actually, I guess two more things. It's the, the gift that keeps on giving here. But the US Says, hey, India has finalized terms for a trade deal with us and we're starting to see more and more of these topics come around. It's a, that's a big deal. You know, India's, I think, the second largest country in the world by population. And then they said on top of this India trade deal being finalized, we're also meeting with 34 other countries in speaking with them this week. So we're seeing the resolution start to happen. We're seeing that a lot of the whole trade war fears are starting to go away and that it's only a matter of time until we probably reach a resolution with most countries again. Is that going to happen by the end of this week? I don't know. Again, we're speaking, it says we're speaking with countries throughout this week. But I would imagine that over the next month we probably see more news like this and things are moving, are back to moving in the right direction. So a big reason that the markets crashed in the first place was because of the fears, because of all this trade war stuff, because of tariffs. And if most of that is going away, then you have to think that we are going to overall kind of shift from this very sharp volatile downtrend back to an uptrend again. I'm not saying we're going to be at all time highs by next week, but I do think that the overall shift from these drastic nasty down days where we were seeing, you know, the stock market especially fall 3%, 5%, 7% back to back to back days, I don't see that continuing. And I think bitcoin is at the forefront of benefiting from this as even on Monday, I think Monday was a great example. We saw the traditional financial markets, you know, especially large equities like the S and P and Nasdaq, they fell by almost 3% on Monday. Bitcoin rose by almost 3% on Monday. It was moving completely, completely inversely to whatever they were doing. So we were at the stage where if they were moving down, bitcoin was still moving up a little bit. If they were moving sideways, bitcoin was moving up quite significantly. And then we started to see, well, if they moved up, that just accelerated any kind of upside movement that bitcoin would have. Where it went from moving up like a little bit pretty well to very, very well. And we saw that with Bitcoin pushing through 94K here, having this, you know, 13% move to the upside this week. And many altcoins like this news, they like the de escalation, they like the fact that crypto is outperforming in a time of fear and it's overperforming in a time of, of joy. And that's where we started to see altcoins rally yesterday. 10, 20, 30, 40% in a single trading day on a lot of these altcoins. So you know, we'll get into to some of those examples a little bit later. But one of the other big catalysts actually before I move on, TiVo was there.
- [20:08]
Brendan
Yeah, yeah. I had something to add and it's actually, you know, I, I think we hold ourselves accountable here. Especially you know, when we get stuff right. We love to celebrate it when we get maybe something's wrong, like we're honest about it. But I think we, one thing I know we, we spoke about and brought to the podcast probably a Month ago, when this first started happening was nobody. Nobody knew where to look. Right. Because it was a lot of. From the White House, the administration, everybody was kind of speaking differently, right? We went over it. Lutnick was saying one thing, Besson was saying one thing, and Navarro was saying one thing. And, you know, we kind of just put the Studied. Studied the. The rhetoric, looked at the news and kind of came up with an opinion. I know I voiced it on the show, was like, I think Scott Bessant is the one to watch. I put it in our group chat, and I brought it to the show because it's what I believe. Did I have insider information? Absolutely not. But it was. It was just kind of like, you know, studying the play. And I think part. Part of the issue here, which is not super fun to talk about all the time, is like, there is a political aspect to this market action right now because people have their beliefs in how they invest and all that stuff, but there's also people who have their beliefs in politics. And because it's such a polarizing time there, at least in my opinion, I think those are starting to bleed together. And I don't think that's good for the investing mindset. You just got to be an investor. You can't let your politics bleed into it. But I think. I think that at this point today, and I'll share this here, this is a headline from this morning for Besson is Besson says America first does not mean America Alone. And the beginning of this trade war thing where we slapped, you know, 60, 100, 200% tariffs on people, was like, all right, this is based. This isn't a trade war. This is an embargo. Like, you can't do business at those levels. And, you know, again, if you study this administration and understand its past, it's like, okay, they want the headlines. They want the wow. And I always thought that Scott Besant was kind of that, you know, middle voice of like, okay, like, let's, you know, he understands the markets. He understands the bond market especially. And he was always the voice that I thought was the least radical of all of them. And it was my hope that he was the one that might prevail with kind of steering the ship. And. And at least I know we mentioned this a couple weeks ago, that he was the one to watch. And I think as of today, and I'd love your opinion on it, but as of today, I think he is the one steering the ship as we speak today and calming the markets down to get them to get them to go higher.
- [22:31]
TiVo
100%. 100%. He is the one to watch here. And it's funny because he'll subtly say stuff and you'll see headlines of, oh, Besson said this, he said that he's talking about X, Y and Z and he'll subtly hint at things before they actually happen. And I've started to see that now. We all know, like, the really blunt example of this was, which is when Trump came out like a week or two ago and was like, I think it's a good time to buy this morning, and then announced the big news. Besson has done a lot of similar things, just much more carefully and much more subtly. So I think watching what he has to say and watching how he's interacting and where he's kind of tiptoeing around is important because again, he keeps dropping hints at, like, what is going to happen, like a little bits of foreshadowing. And that does affect, again, bitcoin. You know, the more bullish. The thing he has to say is, the more bullish we're seeing bitcoin in the crypto markets, the more just explode back to the upside. So I think you're right. You know, definitely the credit to us.
- [23:37]
Brendan
We nailed it, you know, weeks ago, in the heat of the drama, you know, Yeah, I definitely said, or, you know, we said on the show that he was the one to watch and he's the one kind of leading us out of the chaos with cooler heads prevailing. So something to still keep an eye on. It can change, but, you know, that's kind of where we are today.
- [23:54]
TiVo
Yeah. Well, let's. Let's take a look at the M2 money supply. This is something that has been big, big talks. A lot of people are talking about it behind the scenes. And if we throw this up, essentially what this means is, or the reason why it matters. Let's just explain that first. Bitcoin tends to have a correlation to the M2 money supply in a delayed reaction. So as the M2 money supply begins to tickle back to the upside or even the downside, we see bitcoin follow it around. I think it's like three to five months behind. So it has, again, this delayed reaction to what's actually doing it. So people like to look at the M2 money supply and say, okay, when this bottoms out, let's give the crypto market several more months and then it'll probably bottom out and head to the upside. This has been a tool that people have used for a long time. You can actually see on the screen right now, if you're watching on YouTube, you can look at this and you can see how bitcoin has interacted with the M2 money supply in recent months. And you know, even over the course of the last year or so, again, it's not a perfect correlation, but it's pretty accurate. You know, it's pretty similar over here, especially over the long term. You can see that we had this little chart saying, hey, over the X amount of days, this is how correlated it has been. And over the long term, over the last year it's been 88% correlated. Over the last two years it's been 81% correlated. Over the last year and a half it's been 92% correlated. And so when we zoom out to the long term, again, I don't think it's perfect, I don't think it shows the entire picture, but it's definitely like a zoomed out, solid tool for getting a bigger picture about the market. And this thing is sky high over here. It's saying, hey, if we're going to continue following this, this M2 money supply, and I think a lot of this has been hindered because of all the FUD that we've seen. But if we are going to continue following this, this is saying that there's new all time highs on the books for bitcoin and that that's going to happen before the end of this year. And again, I would agree with that. I think bitcoin does see new all time highs before the end of this year.
- [26:11]
Brendan
Yeah, and we had Renick Paley who, that episode just dropped and he, he brought that up on that, that episode and it's definitely something that's interesting to talk about. Again, you just broke down kind of the correlation. And for somebody like myself who's always kind of scouring social media and seeing what people are talking about it, what charts are going on and I try to bring that to you guys every week. This one is something that comes up consistently whenever that M2 money supply goes up or down. Even when I remember a couple, a couple Months ago, the M2 money supply dropped. You see that drop there at the beginning of the year that was trending on social media in January and February. And again, it's not, it's not something that is 100%. So I don't think you should be making decisions, you know, strictly off that. But you know, especially not in the short term. For sure, for sure. But I guess it's one of those things where it's not just bullish only, you know, sentiment or leaning, because when it goes down too, it'll be flooding on, on X and on kind of that crypto Twitter sphere, if you will. So I think it's something that is. Is worth studying and putting in your arsenal. And it's definitely something that's being talked about. So that's why we. We bring it to you guys and break it down.
- [27:24]
TiVo
Yeah, absolutely, man. Well, let's continue on the theme of Catalyst here, because bitcoin has begun its decoupling. In fact, you know, we've been saying this for what, a month now? At least a couple of weeks. And finally CNBC is agreeing with us. They're saying, hey, bitcoin is decoupled from the Nasdaq. And I think we have a nice little clip that we want to share with everyone, too. So if you're not going to take it from us, again, just random people on the Internet who like to study this stuff, look at cnbc, a much more household name. But they're even saying this thing. And bitcoin's decoupling in the best way possible. So let's roll the clip back.
- [28:02]
Brendan
Not a lot of green on the.
- [28:03]
TiVo
Screen today, as you know. However, you probably didn't look at Bitcoin today.
- [28:08]
Brendan
McKill did, and she's here.
- [28:10]
TiVo
It's up 3%.
- [28:11]
Brendan
What do you make of the way that this has been trading?
- [28:14]
TiVo
It's decoupled, obviously, from the Nasdaq, which.
- [28:16]
Brendan
Was a trend for a while.
- [28:17]
TiVo
How do you see it?
- [28:18]
CNBC Guest
Something that people were looking for all month. Because if you go back to earlier this month, it really was creating in line with stocks. It just was not seeing the big pops and drops. That, one, we're used to seeing out of bitcoin, and two, it is outperforming the S and P. It has not really caught up with gold, the leading safe haven. But I think you are seeing evidence, not just. I think that the obvious and easy narrative would be that we're talking about Fed independence today. So bitcoin is kind of acting as that hedge against, you know, uncertainty. But I also think that it's not just enthusiasm, it's also exhaustion. You're seeing people, investors wanting to get back into risk, but just maybe not the type of risk that's tied to earnings or Fed policy.
- [29:04]
TiVo
So there you got it.
- [29:06]
Brendan
Yeah, and. And I cut it off there before Steve voice came on. But he's actually somebody that I've referenced on the show before, a great trader, a true professional, but he was somebody who. The next person I was going to talk was somebody that bought Bitcoin around 90, you know, the mid-90s, and was trying to ride it, you know, and bought more in the hundred thousands and then, you know, sold out of his position when it broke down under a hundred and then sold the rest of it at 80. And so it goes back to that point back when we were talking in, you know, December and January. It's like, hey, if you're a new buyer in that 95 to 108, you know, you don't get to buy it there and necessarily ride it up to 150. So we kind of told you on the show we didn't know how, we didn't know when, but you were going to be tested if you were kind of a newer bitcoin holder. And so, you know, again, we can't tell you if that was the whole test, half the test, but things are definitely looking brighter. And back to her point was, you know, your speculators get, get shaken out like, like Steve. There's plenty of other people that definitely hopped on there just for probably a trade. Steve will tell you openly he doesn't believe in bitcoin. He thinks it's same thing as Jamie Dimon, a pet rock. But it's a trading vehicle and he's going to trade it. So when you get those big flush outs and market panic, the leverage gets flushed out of the whole market from the stocks to the crypto and everything. We've seen it. But it's an interesting point to be like, okay, did we get all the speculators out? And then again, once price starts to rise again, you're going to track that back in probably at a higher price level than when they got into before.
- [30:42]
TiVo
Yeah, I mean, spot on, man. And, and you pointed this out to me, but we saw that as that was all transpiring. Buy bitcoin was trending on X, isn't that right?
- [30:53]
Brendan
Yeah. Again, it goes back to. We've been talking about Monday. So, you know, depending on when you're watching this, on Monday of this week, it was Trump was tweeting about Jerome Po and maybe looking into firing him, which he's since walked back. And the markets are getting, you know, more confident and that's why we're going higher. But during that Monday with the clip that we just showed you guys, you know, the S and P and the Nasdaq, Everything was down 3%. Bitcoin was up. And buy bitcoin was, was trending on X once Again, which, you know, usually is, is it's not the first time this has happened, but it's usually when we're in these crazy big rallies during these bullish times with all markets, when we're kind of having just rallies across the board, if you like. An example would have been, you know, November to December when there was that wild rally. You know, this is the stuff that happens. I thought it was just really interesting and something to point out that, you know, in, in the moment of turmoil, especially on Monday, I mean, I think, I know it's a quick turnaround, but that Monday when you know, the fire pal tweet and you know, was coming out and it is kind of such a negative thing to talk about. So it's not really fun to really break down but, but markets were scared once again and it showed you with that, you know, 3% drop in the indices. But sentiment was so bad and sad. And then I just like look over, I'm like, oh, buy bitcoin. And it's like, yeah, that is the kind of the promise of bitcoin, right? Like not one nation state controls it. And it kind of, it kind of felt like this whole scenario, as bad as it was for markets, it kind of was pushing people towards the promise of bitcoin and what it brings to the table as an asset.
- [32:39]
TiVo
Yeah, it is, man. And so far again, the whole idea of buy bitcoin is still at a discount. I mean, how far are we below our current or our previous all time high? So it's right around 109k and we're sitting at around 93. So we're still about 15 below our all time highs. Still sitting about double digits below it and again, still trading at a little bit of a discount.
- [33:04]
Brendan
So there's a people, the people love bitcoin. I know, I love bitcoin. Bitcoin. I know you love bitcoin, but you know the crypto knots, if you're not a bitcoin maxi. The people love altcoins and the people love altcoin season. And to be honest, Brendan, I think me and you agree and I know the team agrees, we have not experienced an altcoin season yet. We were close. We thought we were on the cusp a couple times maybe a year ago. And then we really, you know, a lot of people, including us, got excited going into the new year and the reg. The deregulation and the pro crypto administration and the crypto summit and there was just this feeling that it was, it was a guarantee, right? It was A guarantee that we were going to see the altcoin season come. And again, one of those situations where, hey, maybe everybody was on one side of the boat and that's not how it's going to work, but we reset expectations, and people are wondering and they're going to ask you the chart, Master Brendan, when are we going to get this historic altcoin season that everybody dreams of each cycle? So what are you seeing?
- [34:13]
TiVo
Well, you brought up a great chart. Yeah, it's on the screen right here. Historically, altcoin season happens, and it starts rather every April or not every April, in April. So this correlates to the having. Right. We showed a little bit about this earlier, saying every single halving cycle, every single market cycle, we see bitcoin got dominance go from 70%, then it falls to 40%, roughly speaking, then back up to 70%, then back down to 40%, back and forth, back and forth. And it's in that fall from 70% to 40%. That is where altcoin season happens. We got a taste of altcoin season at the start of 2024. We got a taste of it at the end of 2024. Spoiler alert. Bitcoin dominance barely moved at both of those events. An altcoin season would blow both of those out of the water. We'd see a gigantic move to the upside, and we are getting awfully close to that point. So what this shows is that again, it's saying, hey, In April, in 2017, altcoin season began. It's not saying that's peak hype, peak profits, saying, it started in April of 2017. Four years after that, it started in April of 2021. Four years after that brings us to today, April of 2025, saying, could this be the start of altcoin season? And where could that bring us to maybe, you know, a couple of months from now, maybe a year from now, where could we be by? You know, you fill in the blank, right, at some point in the future, maybe 2026. And I think that the answer there is, I think we can be higher. I think altcoins are starting to look good. You know, as we alluded to earlier, a lot of altcoins saw a big old move to the upside yesterday. I saw aerodrome. You know, coin that we've talked about is up 15% yesterday. It's up another 10% today. Ondo been tearing back to the upside. It was up 7% yesterday. It's up another 3% today. I think SUI, another popular crypto, was up 21% yesterday, it's up another 12 and a half percent here today. And so as we cycle through this, I mean the list could seriously just go on and on and on. Fart coin in the last, like what is it? Since the start of this month, I think it's up 220%. That thing is just soaring back to the upside. And I've had my eyes on a couple of others. You know, we can't go through all of them. Avax was a big winner yesterday. I think it was up like 11% on the day Maker has been breaking back out to the upside. That thing's now up double digits over the last day or two. And even like the large caps like Solana, solana here since April 7th is up something like 60%. Ethereum yesterday having a massive 11 and a half percent day. And altcoins are just rallying here. So when does alt season begin? Well, historically it happens again in correlation with the four year cycle. April 20, April 2017, April 2021. Four years after that would be April 2025, saying, hey, this could again could be the start of altcoin season if we're using previous data. And you know, I think one of the catalysts that could be leading us to this point, TiVo, is all these ETFs that have been filed. We've talked on this a couple of times in the past months and it was like, what? There's a dozen ETFs, there's two dozen ETFs. I want to give everyone in the audience, whether you're watching this live or you are watching this back at a later point. I want you to take a moment and guess how many crypto related ETFs there are out there right now applied for awaiting SEC approval. How many crypto related ETFs do you think that there are? Right. We've talked about, oh, maybe there's a dozen, maybe there's two. All right, get a moment to get your answer in in 3, 2, 1. There are 71 crypto related ETFs awaiting 72. 72. The number keeps going up. 72 that are awaiting approval. And look at the number that we have on the screen here. Look, look at how big that list is. Can we click on that image and just get the full. I mean it is gigantic. There are, there's, there's index funds, which is a collection of crypto ETFs. There's specifical spot ETFs, there's leveraged ETFs, there's long ETFs there's short ETFs, there is everything. And the majority of this focus is on altcoins. So when people are saying, oh, I don't know what's going to fuel the next altcoin season, I don't know what's going to feel. Look at this. If you're giving people tradfi exposure to so many different cryptocurrencies, it's a big deal. In fact, I saw yesterday that Trump Media Group and World Liberty Financial is going to be partnering with crypto.com to be making a bunch more in addition to what we've already seen crypto related ETFs with a focus on, quote, unquote, made in America related. Yeah, there it is on the screen. Made in America crypto related ETFs. So they don't go into detail here. They don't say, hey, it's going to be this, this in that. But they do give us an idea of, hey, we're going to be focusing on these made in America crypto related ETFs, which is something that we've talked about in, I think it was a couple of months ago, right before the crypto summit. There's rumors of something like this. And while everyone's not doing this, we are seeing some groups focus on this. And I think it makes a little bit sense given given their stance on all of this. But I don't know, I mean, I'm excited. I don't, I think it's hard to look at that. I think it's hard to look at this news and not be like, holy crap, you know, maybe, maybe this isn't the like, peak of the altcoin season, but you gotta be at least excited for what is to come. And I know we've been going back and forth on it, TiVo, but you know, it's, it's, it's an exciting time.
- [40:26]
Brendan
Yeah, I think if, if you, a term we love on the show. Zoom out. So if you go back to about a year and three months ago last January, where we were just on the edge of our seats begging for our old friend Gary Gensler to give the green light for the first ever Bitcoin ETFs. You know, if you go back to a year, year and a half ago, you know, that's all we wanted was like, man, this is it. This is the catalyst, this is the one. This is going to send us higher. And then you know, that that's all we could have wanted and asked for. And it happened and it Sent us higher. And it was a wild year. It was a great year. And. And now, you know, you deal with kind of this unforeseen tariff war that, you know, again, politically charged, not super fun to talk about. It drags markets lower, you know, kind of came out of nowhere, I guess, in a sense, and was just really volatile and. And I'm sure hurt people's, you know, short term, long term, whatever term investments as a whole. And people have been down. But, you know, the news flow, especially if you're in bitcoin and crypto, the news flow has never, ever been more positive. So if you take away the price action, even again, if you zoom out a year, two years, three years, it's a. It's a positive skew anyway. But on top of the positive price action is this news flow that's never been more bullish and more positive. And that. That's kind of where I took solace during the downtrend. I know we all have, as a team, is we're always sharing what's going on and. And just all the momentum in the space, for the first time ever in its history in the United States is positive. And so, again, love him or hate him, he is the President United States. And when his family, family's media company is pairing with crypto.com and they're launching World Liberty FI, it's like, I mean, just skate to where the puck is going, you know, and so if you're here, don't overthink it. And again, not personal financial advice, but, you know, that's why you're here, right? You're educating yourself. And if you're looking for more education and you love, you know, kind of seeing Brendan do the charts or you just kind of love the information or looking for it on a more consistent basis, definitely Check out below. We've got plenty of links for you guys to come join us in the community. But, you know, if you're still listening to this show at this point, at this late in the episode, you know you're in the right place because, again, you're consistently educating and helping form your own decisions. But again, I think I. I think we're in for a good ride. We just got a little turbulence here, but it's an exciting time and. Yeah, no other place I'd rather be.
- [42:56]
TiVo
Yeah. And I have one more thing I want to talk about, but I saw a question from the chat box, so shout out to Matt, who's in the chat box, and Kenneth, Matt was here.
- [43:05]
Brendan
I'm glad you're bringing this up because Matt was here right when we started. Like he was in the waiting room. I know we were a couple minutes late on like the scheduled start time. Dude, Matt was here literally right when we started. So I was going to bring this up, but I'm glad you saw it. So take it away with Matt's question.
- [43:21]
TiVo
Yeah, no, Matt said, assuming that we get a pullback before hitting an all time high, what are your thoughts on how big the pullback could be based on the technicals? And I think the answer there is I don't think it's actually going to be anything massive. Just at a high level here. You know, I could see us retracing, you know, maybe five. I think 10% is the very, very most that we probably get on a retracement. But maybe, you know, a few percentage points, maybe 5. I think pushing us back down to the low 9 or to like 90k. Even as, maybe even as low as like the mid 80,000 is probably as much as we would get if there. But that's kind of my ideal target. I think moving forward. What I am looking for is for bitcoin to now make a higher low. So we bottomed out at around 74,000. I think now we need to make a higher low that is at least several thousand dollars higher than that. And I think that puts bitcoin in the Goldilocks zone. So if we do pull back again, I'm leaning on the side of I don't think we get some crazy pullback. We might not even go back down into the 70s ever again. @ least not the cycle. But my thoughts are, hey, let's pull back maybe several thousand dollars. It's possible for us to come back to the mid-80s, maybe, maybe even high 80s. And that's kind of what I'm looking forward to. But again, you know, I don't have a crystal ball. I'd say based off the technicals, we broke the 200 day moving average. It's possible for after a breakout to retest it. We see that happen quite a bit. So that's just kind of like a rough area of where I'm looking at saying hey, maybe like mid to high 80s is a possibility depending on how bullish the market is. But we'll see. You know, at this point I'm really happy to accumulate on any kind of dips because I am looking at that, that bigger zoomed out picture here saying where can we go in the coming months, in the coming year? And I think that the, the overall answer is to the upside. And if everything else that we told you today does not matter, if we were not able to to convince you of, like, why we are so optimistic, let this one final point be the golden goose, right? If everything else fails. TiVo, there's one sign pointing towards the fact that the bottom is in. Let's throw it on the screen. Let's reveal it. It's Mr. Counter Trader himself, the one and only Jim Cramer saying bitcoin is worthless. You can't compare it to gold. He's trashing it. Well, what did we see? Well, gold got a swift rejection yesterday and it is down a whole lot more today. Again, I like metals. I own metals. But Jim Cramer is known for calling the bottom or the top of whatever he's talking about.
- [46:19]
Brendan
Right?
- [46:19]
TiVo
It's always the inverse Kramer theory saying bitcoin's worthless. You can't compare it to gold this and that. Well, it looks, it looks as if so far the local top or maybe even the swing top for gold is in. That's tanking. And now bitcoin is ripping. Inverse Kramer works once again. So if nothing else was able to convince you, Mr. Kramer himself is giving you a big old signal. So again, nothing that we say here is. Yeah, go ahead. No, take it away.
- [46:47]
Brendan
Sorry again. I saw a chart that compared like the inverse Kramer to the Nancy Pelosi tracker. And like, they're basically the same with performance. So again, just to finish your statement there, because I cut you off, nothing we said today was personal financial advice. Just two guys talking crypto. But we love bringing you the news and talking crypto and appreciate everybody in, you know, especially Matt and everybody else in the, the live YouTube today and Instagram. So, you know, this, this was a great episode. I know it's been, you know, about a month here of, you know, tough episodes and, and not super fun, you know, bringing the negative news. But I was glad we got this one in today. It was super fun and, you know, hopefully the. The momentum continues into the summer here.
- [47:29]
TiVo
Spot on, man. Well, we appreciate everyone coming in here and watching and joining us. We do week, we go through all of the news, all of the technicals, the fundamentals, the noise. We sift through all of it and we bring it to you completely for free on a weekly basis. And all that we ask is that if you like the content that we make, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. If you're listening on Spotify or Apple podcasts or anywhere else, leave us a review. Check out our, our YouTube channel, which is the crypto101 YouTube and that's where we give all the vigils that we talk about on the screen as well. And if you really really like the content then you can go to the link in the description down below on YouTube and you can get access to our crypto portfolio over there for just $1. Really easy entrance and we always like to make sure that people know that that is available over there. So thank you all for watching and we're going to see all of you at the same time, same place next week.
- [48:38]
Indeed Ad
You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday? How can you find amazing candidates fast? Easy. Just use Indeed. Stop struggling to get your job post seen on other job sites. With Indeed sponsored Jobs, your post jumps to the top of the page for your relevant candidates so you can reach the people you want faster. According to Indeed data, Sponsored jobs posted directly on indeed have 45% more applications than non sponsored jobs. Don't wait any longer. Speed up your hiring right now with Indeed and listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit. To get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com podkatz13 just go to indeed.com podkatz13 right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring Indeed is all you need.
- [49:37]
Dutch Ad
Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24? 7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.