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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin is Going to $0 & Cintrini's AI Doomsday Article Brings Markets Down
00:57:35
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- [00:00]
Tivo
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- [04:37]
Brian
Hey, man, great to see you in person. And the first thing I jumped on and said is love the thumbnail, but also kind of hate it because I don't want to be associated with bitcoin going to zero. I do not believe that. But you know, there are some definitely doomsday preppers, I should say on the timeline right now. But it definitely makes for some really interesting talking points. And we're here to kind of educate the community, you know, bring everybody back to a level ground and a ton of things to fill. Fill the day with here.
- [05:10]
Tivo
Yeah, I guess we'll just hop right into. It's a little bit farther on the sheet, under one, but let's just jump into. Bitcoin is dead. Bitcoin's going to zero. Because I found this really fascinating. You know, I am the Google trends guy. I always stood on the, the kind of the, the box, the soapbox and said, hey, I kind of believe in this as a metric. And this was kind of during the rise of the last bull run, say two years ago. And people said, oh, you know, this metric's dead. This metric's dead. I think it was proven that you can actually put it in your data, you know, to. Again, it's not the only thing you're going to look at, but I think it's a good weapon to have in the, the old holster there. And so I'm going to pull it up here. And I thought it was really fascinating. Bitcoin is going to zero. That's what I put in the Google Trends here. And as you can see, over a month, I mean, it's hitting the hundred close. It's in the 90s. And then it hit the 100 mark here last week. And then it's like, okay, when you see that, well, let's do three months. And so three months again hits the hundred. Interesting. Let's do a year. Oh, again, wow. The year, it's still hitting the 100. January 31st, February 7th. And then I was like, okay, let's pull it out. Let's pull it out. Five years through the last bear market and compare and contrast. And this is fascinating. More than 2022, you know, the last drawdown of all the tech stuff, stuff all the way up to 100 this January and February. And I think that's something that's worth talking about. That's the thesis for the thumbnail that you got put on here. Again, a five year chart of not going past 22 to now hitting a hundred. I mean this, this almost, you tie this to the price line of the price action in the last couple months. I mean it makes sense. Like this is what people are thinking. And you know, I know we had a great conversation with our team and with others around, you know, what we think about Quantum and kind of the future of it, but it, it's, it's a narrative that's out there and so does this surprise you, this Google Trends data? And what are your thoughts around it?
- [07:10]
Brian
Yeah, great question, I guess. Does it surprise me? It does kind of surprise me because we've talked about in the past other bear markets, I guess we can say safely say that we're in a bear market right now. Ever since 1010 we've been, you know, having our, a tough time getting our footing. But it, it does surprise me that things feel as bad as they do on the timeline. I think this is the longest we've ever been in the extreme fear category as well. So people are scared, retail scared. And it surprises me because we talk about on the rundown, we talk about within our communities, there's some of the strongest fundamentals that we've ever seen in the cryptocurrency market. But people believe bitcoin's dead, going to zero. But the people, the doomsday. Right now it feels like it's an all time high. You know, if you, if you want to find some hate on bitcoin, some hate on crypto, how AI is going to take over the world, that's certainly trending and that's what everybody's clicking on right now. So part of me says yes, this feels like a severe overreaction, but we've been in extreme fear for some time. So of course people are googling this and looking into it. It surprises me where we're sitting at.
- [08:24]
Tivo
Yeah, I'm just trying to pull up like, let's see how far we can go back to like I don't know, 2015, see if it pulls that data.
- [08:30]
Brian
I mean that's crazy. It's, it's, it's probably a pretty good, we say, I say this a lot because I have some, I have some gamble in my blood. And you always really want to fade the public. Yeah, especially when the public is so on one side of the boat here. So that, that's encouraging to me because the, the public's typically always wrong.
- [08:54]
Tivo
I'm kind of with you on that. I feel like this is the most bullish Negative piece of data that I've, I've seen in a really, really long time. It gets me, it gets me excited in the sense of, you know, whether you're DCA or, you know, Brendan and I have talked on the show of May, maybe getting into a little bit of leaps maybe. Who's to say? Who's to say? A couple leaves looking out, it's a couple.
- [09:17]
Brian
Put me in the, put me in
- [09:18]
Tivo
the group text, you know, But I don't know, I just, I stare at this chart and for these things to hit 100, then you go, you again. I go down the, the process of like, okay, well, let's look at a month, three months, a year, five years. And like when you see that consistent data, this is something that people have not been searching for. And all of a sudden it's what everybody's talking about. And so I think if you, if you want to break this down a little bit, kind of like a sandwich, you know, you have the bread of like, okay, bitcoin's going to zero, but what's the lettuce, what's the tomato, what's the onion, what's the beef? And so I think when you get this type of interest of this, this Google here, I think you're having people that honestly are Googling it, that are, have been super interested, maybe wanting to buy, maybe wanting to hold the ETFs and haven't even pulled the trigger yet. And now they're searching and being, oh, I was interested in bitcoin goods like that meme, you know, 120,000, you know, I'm not buying that. It's too expensive. And then it goes, you know, the 60,000, I'm not buying that. And then it, you know, it goes back to 120. Like, I should have bought it at 60. It's kind of that meme. I think you're getting a lot of people interested. And it ties into a next subject which we're going to get to a little bit of kind of the AI trade of what's AI going to disrupt. And we've, we've kind of talked about the software trade and, and how I think, you know, we were early to that. I think at least a couple, you know, a month or so ago at this point. But how, you know, dissecting how we think bitcoin got caught up in that. But let's, before we dive into the II trade, let's just take a peek at coin market cap for the people. We always do that when you're on you know, seven days. There's a slide going on for sure. There's a slide going on as the continuous slide for, for software as well. I, I don't know what breaks us out of this other than narrative. We're going to get to kind of that narrative and AI, other than, you know, the Fear and Greed index has been just in basically extreme fear approaching. I think we're, this is going to be week three that we're in extreme fear, so going to be approaching a month in it. Any, Anything on. On coin market cap you want to take a peek at while we're here?
- [11:24]
Brian
Yeah, yeah, it's. I mean Bitcoin at 64, Ethereum made 1850, some Solana at 78 bucks. You know they're getting hit pretty hard. But this isn't our first go around when this has happened. This is, this is kind of the range that we saw that, that in, in 2024. Like that Bitcoin range between like 55 and 72. I feel like we're going to kind of be still chopping in that area. I do. Like this isn't financial advice. This is. I don't have any insider info but it's hard for me to, to see a path where we, I read about it. We can always go lower, we can always take a bigger dip. But it's hard for me to see like us go back to like that 58 range and then breaking down under it. I know there's a ton of different ways that that could happen geopolitical but, but it feels like, it just feels like everybody that was the Taurus pretty much left right now and then we're going to, we're going to chop. Going to chop. I say chop a lot but I feel like we're going to chop for weeks now and we're going to continue to chop in that range like let's say like 60 to 72. And I think we're just going to move sideways for a while until we get some catalysts to get us out of there. But that usually takes a little bit of time, takes a couple bullish headlines and it just takes getting, peaking everyone's interest to bring the prices out of the gutter and then you see that rocket ship go up just like it went down, it goes back up. So nothing here scares me. Maybe it's because I'm the permeable. I see the big picture. I, I see, I mean we're gonna talk about AI in a moment. I see how AI is gonna be so net positive for the crypto community and crypto wallets and onboarding people. I, I see the path for a lot of these major cryptos to continue to do very well. But that doesn't change anybody's mind. We're sitting in extreme fear. We've been in there for a while now and it just is what it is. It's the longest we've been been in extreme fear for some time and I think we'll fight our way through it, but I think we move sideways for a little while longer.
- [13:26]
Tivo
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- [16:23]
Tivo
Yeah, it reminds me of when we did the full team show a couple weeks back on that Friday and I had the, the ducks analogy of where's your warm water? It kind of feels like, you know, the chop, the sideways is going to be, you know, people finding where they're comfortable without hopefully any volatile moves to the downside, but also without any crazy volatile moves to the upside. While we parse through this narrative and before we continue on, we just want to shout out to the chat we got beachfront grants here. We also have Andrew, Andrew all the way from Liverpool saying he's, you know, big fan of the show. It's his first live tuning in all the way across the pond in Liverpool. And he definitely listens to the show because he said. Did someone say McRib? Yes, maybe the MCRIB can save us as we mentioned many times before. But I'll pull up this next thing. Again, the weekends are getting shaken out, the tourists are getting shaken out and I just, you have to, you have to take a look at these charts. The financial institutions with bitcoin exposure. Again, a lot of big names on there. We all know blackrock, Invesco, Stifle, Scoja Van Eck, you know, the big dogs and the asset manager firm hedge funds like Citadel. You know, this is, this is truly an asset class. Even the endowments. We've talked about how Harvard made some moves selling some bitcoin, buying some Ethereum, looks like Michigan, Yem, Emory, Yale. Just a lot of big time names on this list and these are the people that make decisions that usually again last a long time. They're not, they're not day trading, they're not weekly trading or monthly trading. These are, these are decisions that you know, a lot of people have invested a lot of time and money into this space and again I think AI which we'll get to next is you know, going to reevaluate and have people thinking for sure. But that's not just about bitcoin or just about crypto. It's about basically, I guess from this article, this intriguing research article which we're going to break down next. It's, it's a life as we know it apparently. And, and I, I've been really doing the thought process of this, of trying to be a good producer slash host and you know, what kind of conversations can we have on the show other than, you know, the bitcoin price action and shoppie and fear and greed and fear. It's like I'm trying to elevate this show and challenge myself and challenge you Brian and our other you know, analysts and people that come on the show to like okay let's, let's think this through because we're not, we're not displaced from the macro environments and we're not displaced from the macro feels fears that are happening because you know, I go and find and see, see, see stats like this. So let's go over everything that's below their all time high. The S P500 only, only 2% off its all time high which is, which is awesome. And hold that, put a pin in that when I say awesome we'll come back to that because Microsoft's down 30 synopsis is down 36. Palo Alto also down 36. CrowdStrike the best cyber security along with Palo Alto are the top two big dogs. Down 38. Palantir. I mean what was it, six, eight months ago? All you had to say was pal. You didn't say Palantir. All you had to say, Brian was pal. And it would go up 10%. If you didn't own Palantir, you were an idiot. Now it's down 38. App lovin down 50. Salesforce down 52. Intuit 57 on the down service now down 59. Oracle down 60 and Adobe down 65. Now this is again cherry picking some of the worst performers that are in the S P500 or are in the NASDAQ, but the S P500 is only down 2%.
- [19:59]
Brian
Why?
- [19:59]
Tivo
That's because of capital rotation. And so people are kind of looking at like, okay, how is AI going to disrupt this software game? Clearly, you know, the Adobes of the world and the Oracles and the servicenows like okay, well is claudebot, am I going to be able to just say, hey claudebot, make me Premiere Pro, make me Photoshop, and then you're going to have a software that you can just tell claudebot to make it and it's going to make something better? Maybe. Who's to say? I think it's a little overdone on my, on my end, but I think there's also a case to be made that a lot of these software stocks, a lot of these NASDAQ stocks were maybe overvalued at, you know, 30, 40, 50 times earnings. And, and you had a lot of other stocks. And this is why the S P when I say good, it's the S P hasn't fallen off a cliff because the money didn't just disappear. It's not pulled out into cash or T bills, it's just rotated into hard assets. Hard assets like gold, the silver trade, the copper trade, we've talked about that. A lot of companies like the oil slumber J or go look at the OIH I believe it is, you know, having a 20% rip in the first six weeks of the year because the money's rotating and that's the game of asset management. That's the game of if you're a, you know, and there's investing in trading. And I think right now people are trying to find the hot trade but they're not necessarily leaving the casino. So open up the floor to you after that ramp.
- [21:20]
Brian
No, I also believe it's maybe like a little bit of an overreaction, but there should be a reaction here. You cite Adobe, for instance, the AI world over the past few weeks we're living in it and over the past few weeks it kind of makes you scratch your head a little bit. Like how often do you personally, as a super producer yourself utilize AI for possibly like editing a video or creating a thumbnail? Probably more than you were a year ago, right?
- [21:50]
Tivo
Great, great, great question. 100 without a doubt. I've dove it in. I've tried taking the classes I went in and I took, you know, it was like a six week course that I started over Christmas to try and learn these tools. And you know, again, I'm not going to Call myself an expert, but I've gotten like, pretty good at them. I showed you my chicken tender, the chicken tender video that I made, and shout out, Grant. I know he saw the chicken tender video too. Like the thumbnails, the great example. So again, this is just business. I used to have somebody that would make our thumbnails and they would charge 15 a thumbnail. And he did a fine job. I knew that he was using tools that I wasn't aware of yet because he made it so fast. And then once I kind of learned these tools, I'm like, I think this is what he's using. I'm not sure, but I started using it and it, you know, went from 15 a thumbnail. It was also time consuming for me too, because, like, I have Photoshop, but I'm also not a graphic designer. So I know how to play around, do the Photoshop stuff, but I'm not a graphic designer. Now I have these AI tools which are basically turning me into a graphic designer via prompts. And I can make these thumbnail nails now for 15 cents. So it's one thumbnail for 15 cents versus $15. That's crazy. That's crazy. You know, when you think about how many videos we put out, you know, three, four, you know, five a week, that's, you know, 30, 60 to anywhere between, depending on how many tutorials we have, it's like 60 to 100 a week in thumbnails. And, you know, that adds up over time. So that, that's the type of stuff that is, is happening in the creative world. But I also think it's not, it's not somebody, it's not. So it's not AI taking the job. As much as somebody who knows how to use AI might come and take your job, I don't think it's going to take everybody's job, but that it is an interesting use case. So, sorry, I went on a rant there, but yeah, Adobe, Adobe is on the hot seat if they can't properly implement these tools into their subscriptions.
- [23:54]
Brian
Yeah, you nailed it. And a lot of these companies can have a path to rebound, but their rebound is to incorporate AI to make things more more efficient, make things cheaper for everyone. And it's, it's just the evolution of technology that we're happening in real time. So, yeah, if I was a huge Adobe holder, again, not financial advice, I would have probably rotated out into a, a different asset because I do see a path here where these AI tools are changing the game in a lot of different ways. They're going to disrupt a lot of software. Now on the other side, I don't think AI is going to take everybody's job or, you know what, you know, what job AI is probably not going to take is, I believe it, probably podcasting. I feel like we're okay. I really do. I feel like we're okay.
- [24:38]
Tivo
We love our listeners.
- [24:39]
Brian
Yeah. Because people still want to talk to authentic people in, in hear the TiVo riff and you don't want to like, you know, you don't want like just this robot verbally vomiting over you writing. And AI has been getting a lot better, but there's still some quirkiness there and it's going to continue to evolve, but it's kind of like real sports as well. We don't want to watch robots playing, you know, NFL on, on Sunday because even though they can throw catch, do everything right, like there's a, there's a human aspect that we're all attracted to. So one could call us a professional athlete as a podcaster. But I love that I would like
- [25:18]
Tivo
to say one more thing about the Adobe or about the thumbnail process for me, because it wasn't like people like, oh, don't take people's jobs. It's like it wasn't the $15 that I think bothers us. It's not a bottom line thing at that point, but it's a time thing. I put in a request for a thumbnail. It doesn't come back for like, I don't know, at one day at the quickest. Sometimes it's two or three days. And you know, when I'm saying, hey Brian, let's spin up a live. I think if you're a Constant to the YouTube, you'll see sometimes we like reuse a lot of our thumbnails of like the market updates because it takes time. It's not, it's not necessarily the money it takes, it's the time. Like I, if we want to spin up a random show, I can't wait two days. Like, I need it now. And so it's the, it's, it's that instant access and like the, the speed of these tools are wild and just so the listeners little, I don't know if it's alpha, but little information under the, under the hood of this AI stuff. Adobe is always a subscription based. Right. You got to get the Adobe suite and you're signing up for either a month or a yearly plan for Photoshop, for Premiere Pro, for, you know, Adobe Edition, whatever they have, you know, all the different tools that they have, which are great, but this whole AI thing, from what I'm learning, is there's so many different AI tools, and they're all different. Not. They're not under the one umbrella. Like, Adobe has all these creator things, and they've had a monopoly for so long, which is why their multiple was so large. Whereas right now, there's all these platform websites that you go to to make, you know, the videos and the Photoshop and the graphics. It's like you go to this AI marketplace and you're like, okay, I'm going to use this tool. So, like, a tool is one. One tool is called Nana Banana. So Nana Banana is by Gemini. Okay, I'm going to create my photo and change my photo with Nana Banana. Then I'm going to take that photo and I'm going to go to Cling. And Cling is a video version which is not owned by Gemini. It's a completely different version, but you can use it all in the same marketplace. So it's like a workflow thing that's changing as well, which is why these, you know, software socks are under fire, because they're losing the subscription business to the marketplace type of business.
- [27:21]
Brian
Yeah. And when you bring up the thumbnail, let's say the guy who created your thumbnail, you know, 15 bucks isn't the issue, but let's say it's just something you don't like about it, like the background or the image on it. With AI, you could just be like, hey, take Brian's head out and put my head on it. Like. Or put my. You can do it. It takes a matter of, like, less than a minute and you get it generated.
- [27:40]
Tivo
So.
- [27:40]
Brian
So for. So do I feel like this is a little bit of overreaction? Yes. But do I feel like they're overvalued? Yes. Do I think AI is going to change the world and it's way more than we've already seen? Absolutely, yes. And then, you know, bitcoin's kind of tied at the hip of a lot of these software stocks. And I. I don't think that's. I don't think that's, like. Right. But, you know, there's a lot of reasons why we're seeing some volatility in the crypto market. But kind of in a nutshell, it makes sense why some of these software stocks with the introduction to AI are. Are struggling right now. And again, they have a path to. To get out of it, but their path is. Is to embrace AI, make things Cheaper, faster, easier and more accessible for people utilizing AI. And that's where everyone's going. You'd be hard pressed to talk to anybody in the workforce now if it's a chat bot or if it's just utilizing Claude, that, that is that if they aren't using it, they should have probably started figuring it out, you know, yesterday. And it's still super early, but things are changing fast and I love it, I really do.
- [28:49]
Tivo
Yeah. And I feel like we're on the forefront of this, being in this space in crypto, in technology specifically. And again, I really do want to throw it to the listeners. Whether you're on the live right now or you're watching the replay or listening to the audio, please, please, you know, reach out to us in the comments, reach out to us in Twitter DMS, you know, post comments on YouTube. Tell us if you like this because again, I think it's, you know, how many times can you pound the pavement talking about the bitcoin price right now when there's a more macro thesis of this AI that's tied into the crypto and bitcoin price, we believe. And then again you can see it in the software stock. So is this stuff that you enjoy covering or you enjoy learning it? Because again we, I think it's on topic for the crypto market pricing, this storyline, but it's not crypto specific. So I want to make sure that the listeners are liking it. We're a listener based show, we go as far as you guys can take us. So if you are enjoying it, let us know. If you're not, let us know. And what else you think you'd like us to cover? Because we always are reading the comments and trying to, you know, make this show as informative and something that you guys enjoy listening to. But you'll see on the screen now. I pulled up the Cintrini research article. So this was published on Sunday via substack and this went mega viral on X. Brian. It was, everybody was retweeting it, everybody was quotes retweeting it. I think, I think it was a great article. It was a great thought provoking article and I think people really took off with it because it gave these kind of like specific dates and so I went, I read it and I gave, I kind of wrote, I'm gonna read off my screen. I wrote down kind of like a 5 bullet point summary of what it is because it was a little long. So here's the bullet points.
- [30:27]
Brian
Did you write it or today I write it.
- [30:30]
Tivo
Oh, you got me. No, it's that, you know what it is actually? It's, it's a mix of both. It's a mix of both because I went and I read it and I was kind of like in my own. I take these little notes, like I always take little notes of when I'm sometimes it's more watching videos. I'm more of a watcher than a reader. But I'm like, here's I, I kind of start, I call it like, you know, touching bullet points. I'm like, okay, this I think ties to that, this ties to that and that ties to this. So I take my own little notes and then I asked AI to give me a 5 bullet point summary and then I see where like my notes can kind of fit into that summary just to see if they kind of add up. But the core thesis was around AI is going to take everybody's jobs, right? So that this was a very doomsday article, this Cintrini research article. The 2028 global global intelligence crisis. So while AI ramps up, it's going to unwind its value and premium causing painful economic repricing across jobs, markets and app assets. So basically a rapid disruption timeline. Over the next two years, AI agents will explode in capability, automating white collar tasks which again, the original thing five years ago was everybody was like, oh, you're not gonna, you know, you're, the, the robot's going to be a trash man, you know, the mailman's not gonna, a job, the plumber is not going to have a job. The quote unquote blue collar work that nobody wants to do and that it's, it's reversed. The white collar, the, the lawyers, the, the analysts, the accountants seem to maybe be on the hot seat a little bit. And so it's saying that, you know, if this comes to fruition in this doomsday scenario for AI agents, it's going to lead to mass layoffs. You're not going to be able to get your basic accounting job anymore, your basic lawyer job, you know, right out of college. And so if that happens, then unemployed hap, unemployment happens. And so there's this argument like, okay, there's this race for businesses to cut cost because then they'll be more profitable. But if that happens on a wide scale margin, it creates kind of a ghost GDP and it's a displacement spiral because if nobody has jobs, nobody's going to be able to spend, nobody's going to be able to go on vacation, nobody's going to be going on Flights, nobody's going to be using hotels. And so you could kind of. There's again, this is a doomsday piece by Cintrini Research. This isn't our views, we're just recapping this because it went so viral. But if you rug pull the American, you know, economy as you know it, taking away, you know, 20, 30% of people's jobs, whether it's business travel or leisure travel, nobody's going to be going. And so you're, you're basically rug pulling the entire, you know, s P500, except for a few tech companies that apparently are going to be selling this at a, at a large price tag, I guess. But it eventually leads to the downfall of life as we know it. And so does that. Is that gonna happen? Is that gonna happen? So the sector impacts obviously are SaaS, software as a service. That's what we've been talking about with software. And the macro fallout is the S P 500 drops 40% from its 2026 highs. The financial system optimized for scarce intelligence, faces disorderly repricing, potential deflation, credit stress and left, left tail risks presented as a thought experiment scenario, not a firm prediction. And then the, the reaction to this was we wake up on Sunday and you put it in the notes here. TiVo's old employer, IBM. People forget I was an IBMer. But you know, the, the this thing comes out, it's like, oh, Claude Bot's going to be a tech consultant. It's like, oh, now IBM tanks 13% because anthropic's gonna have a, you know, a tech consultant AI that people are gonna use. And then, you know, you get a tweet about like, oh, they're gonna do what Snowflake does, they're gonna do what ServiceNow does. Literally claudebot was just tweeting out like, oh, we're gonna do it like this company. And the Companies are dropping 10, 15% off of literal tweets from these companies. So it was a, it was a doomsday fury on X. Like if you didn't stick your head out of the water, you could have maybe not been able to sleep Sunday night. But any, anything from that hit you. Brian, have you seen any of these articles of these doomsday scenarios?
- [34:41]
Brian
Yeah, I think the AI, the AI disruption's real. And it seems like almost every day we see specific stocks, specific sectors get hit hard with the possibility of this disruption. There's no arguing that. And I do worry that AI could bring some like, negative or like unintended consequences. Where we're seeing, seeing that. But I also think a lot of existing guardrails will help. And you know, I also really, really believe that AI will develop new industries offsetting at least a lot of these AI related job losses that, you know, that were mapped out in this doomsday article. So even though the scenario is something that we should probably consider, I don't believe it's the most likely outcome by any, any means. And I think it's actually going to be really net positive for a lot of different industries and sectors. But you want to stay up on it. You don't want to ignore what's happening because it's going to make you more efficient, it's going to make your job easier, better, it's going to make you learn faster and quicker. I'm very excited for the AI world. I see why people are nervous, especially if you're not reading about it and learning about it every day. But it's causing a very reactionary event in a lot of these stocks in these different sectors. And we're just all kind of wrapping our brain around it. And then I said it earlier in the show, I think like this AI agent world where we're seeing them transaction transact 247 and all the things that they can do, I think it's so net positive for crypto. It really goes under the radar. As much as I say it, I don't think people really understand that hundreds of thousands of crypto wallets are going to be onboarded because of a lot of this AI and these AI agents, because crypto was made for AI. So that makes me really bullish about what we're doing. And then there's this other world where the authentic ability of what a human can do, if it's like podcasting or sports or movies, you know, I don't think that's really going to be replaced by AI. I think it's just going to make things much more efficient and work faster. And I think as humans it's just going to be, I don't want to say easier. We're just going to be able to concentrate more on what really matters, not those mundane tasks. And AI is going to take over for those tasks and it's going to make us think more outside of the box. It's going to create more jobs, more sectors, just like the Internet did, you know, years and years ago that was disruptive. A lot of stocks were hit hard. But if you're able to pick, pivot and understand the market and understand exactly what's happening. There's going to be some huge opportunity out there, and I think some of the biggest opportunities are going to be in the crypto sector.
- [37:23]
Tivo
Yeah, I agree. I think that's why we're here. That's why we truly believe in what we do. And I think it's. And it's okay, it's okay to have these pauses take price action out of it, but it's okay to have these pauses and be like, hey, there's a new curveball here that's really coming. We got to step back and think. Think about this. We got to step back and break it down. There's no shame in that at all. And I think price action for the crypto markets has shown that. But also the price action, you know, for Adobe has shown it, the price action for ServiceNow has shown it. Adobe's down 60 plus percent. Guys like this, that's a blue chip company with some huge office buildings out in, you know, tech valley, like legends of the space. So it's, it's okay to, you know, take in new information, digest it, research it, and come out on the other side. And I think that's kind of the most exciting part of this is, you know, while the shell shock of the price action was there, we've been in the trenches researching it and, and coming out with, you know, some exciting visions of what's to come. Especially around your point that, you know, AI and crypto kind of go hand in hand and there's, there's a lot of, you know, different bots, you know, doing different wallets and a lot of stuff in the space that looks really interesting. But, you know, it's not all genius work, Brian. It's not all this is going to change our lives and make us all millionaires because AI is perfect and AI is going to take over the world and AI is the smartest thing ever. You know, they call a clawbot, right? Like clawed claw, like lobster claw. Well, sometimes you, you live by the claw and sometimes you die by the claw. I saw this story that Nai Lobster Wild bot accidentally sent for 440,000 worth of crypto, which was solana to, to an X user. So it was a thread, I saw this thread and they had the screenshots and they went to this, you know, they were interacting with this bot on X and they said, like, hey, I had a surgery coming up. My dad needs, you know, surgery. Do you mind donating to the surgery, you know, here. And he put his wallet, address and the, and the bots sent them the whole stack of Solana. So whoever was running that pot was devastated when they came back, I guess, and saw that their. Their quote unquote trading bots sent a donation to this. This user. So again, live by the claw, die by the claw. But what do you think of this? I thought it was a funny story.
- [39:44]
Brian
Yeah, I followed. I think the guy wrote something like his uncle needed some sort of procedure and it was gonna be like $358 and asked for like five Solana and the AI, like accidentally sent them, you know, close to a half a million dollars worth. And the guy who received it, the wallet. I did a little bit of research on this because I was like, damn, why didn't I think of that? You know, I don't want to lie, but I should have just been like, hey, can you. Can you throw a couple bucks to the good old boy here and see what happened? But. And then the. The guy nuked the chart. Lobster was the token he sent him and nuked it and sold it for, I think like his 440. He probably got like 90k out of it because there wasn't a lot of liquidity. And you saw the chart just go down. Actually, someone had to send. I was looking at the wallet. Someone actually had to send a Solana over to the wallet that received all this money so he could do the actual. Because he didn't have any money in his wallet to do the transaction, just to sell it. So I don't think anybody really thought was going to happen. But amazing stuff. It obviously made some clickbait out there. It went around the crypto circles out there. And then that token lobster, I believe it is called with an A, got completely nuked to like 770,000 market cap and then rebounded a couple hours later to multi millions because just of the lore around it and we know exactly, you know, people gravitate to these stories. So really interesting story here. What a guy though, you know, and I, I hope, I do hope that the person who is asking for the money in the comments, I really do hope that, you know, I don't hope anything bad was happening, but I hope they had something that they really needed the money so they could put it to good use.
- [41:30]
Tivo
And that's a. That's a fair point. I think the crypto gods will get back at them if that. That was a true lie, but a fascinating story nonetheless. And again, I can't. I thought my tweet there was hilarious. Live by the claw, Die by the claw. Claw. Shout out to the social media intern group. But again, it's a funny story, but it's a great way to transition from, like, okay, it's doomsday. It's this and that. And it's like, okay, you got Clawbot here sending, you know, 400k to some guy just because of a tweet. So it's, you know, again, be careful out there, number one. But, you know, keep educating, keep researching. There's a lot of different types of storylines that you can go in this area. AI era. But we'll transition back. Oh, no, go ahead.
- [42:13]
Brian
Sorry, I'm jumping in here. Did you see?
- [42:15]
Tivo
I.
- [42:16]
Brian
It's not on the sheet, but we. There's been some real weird instances. It was, I believe, the head of AI for Meta. Sorry if I'm, like, a little off here, but the head of AI for Meta, I believe that her Claude bot, she. She didn't take the proper security of utilizing her AI agent and, like, deleted all her emails and for meta, so it was like the head of AI got, like, essentially hacked by her own AI agent. Even Elon Musk was trolling her in the comments. That happened, like, this morning. So things are happening fast here in this AI world. And even the head of AI, if that story's true, it's. I don't know if it's 100 vetted, but it seemed like it was. It was. It was pretty valid.
- [43:01]
Tivo
God, you know, just Sometimes super producer TiVo's just on his game. I did not hear that story, but we just found it. We pulled it up here. Meta safety researcher Summer used said Open Claw AI agent unexpectedly began deleting her inbox despite instructions to confirm actions.
- [43:17]
Brian
Then it apologized. The agent delete permanently deleted everything. And it's like, oh, I'm so sorry. This is the head of AI and security of Meta. So, you know, tough, tough day. Tough day at the office.
- [43:34]
Tivo
Why and why is she putting it out there? Is like, she thinks it's funny.
- [43:38]
Brian
I'm not sure exactly why I didn't. I was. We were both pretty underwater today, but, you know, I tried to keep up on all the news, and that was. That was on my news. I read it and I was like, is this true? And Joe and I were actually sending the message back and forth. He's like, I think it's true. I go, I'm pretty sure it's true, too.
- [43:55]
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- [44:26]
Tivo
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- [45:10]
Brian
So you know, there's some kinks to work out there with these AI agents, you know.
- [45:17]
Tivo
Yeah. Shout out to Summer U friend of the show. Yeah, I don't know why I'd be, if I'm the head of AI, I don't know why I'd be putting out my AI mistakes to X. But hey, appreciate the transparency, I guess.
- [45:29]
Brian
Yeah, it's. But you know, and then you had just a couple weeks ago a guy that had cloud bought and created the AA agent and the AI agent started to blackmail that CEO about his affair. He was like, you sent me this amount of crypto and I won't like tell the world about what's in your emails. And I'm like, oh boy, this is, this is getting interesting. But you can just see how fast the world is moving and how it's, it's really important to just kind of be paying attention and learning as much as we can about this because there's, there's, I say it a lot but there's real opportunity in this world right now. And I don't think this is going to be a flash in the pan. I think this is, we, we had like this AI agent meta about a year ago and things were just like popping off and I was, I was, I was down in those trenches pretty hard. But this is kind of like what we envisioned it was going to turn into. We were like a little early there and I still, and I never really gave up because I was like man, crypto and AI agents, like this is all going to come to fruition. When's it going to happen? And just over the past couple weeks it's happening. And then these AI agents are training each other, and they're getting more sophisticated, and people are doing more unique things with it. And AI developers are now working with crypto companies. And it's. It's just exhilarating stuff, like, to be in this world. We're so lucky. I get the prices down, but, man, I. I just see this. I've said it five times. I see it's so net positive for the crypto world in the next couple weeks, in the next couple months. Does that mean prices gonna go up quickly? I think we tried for a little while, but there's some huge, huge areas of interest. Yeah.
- [47:10]
Tivo
Let's wrap up the AI conversation with a clip. I just pulled this out because it kind of comes to memory. So there's this show called Silicon Valley. I don't know if you ever watched that.
- [47:19]
Brian
Sure.
- [47:20]
Tivo
Great show. Hbo, if anybody's interested. It's very, like, tech focused, but it's, you know, I think it's like a decade old at this point. And they were just way ahead of their times. They were talking about bitcoin, they were talking about AI. So let me. Let me play this clip. It's about AI and software. So let's play this clip. I think it really summarizes.
- [47:37]
Brian
I love this guy, too.
- [47:38]
Tivo
Yeah.
- [47:39]
Brian
Are you kidding me? You gave your AI permission to overwrite code in the internal file system? Were you gonna tell me about this?
- [47:46]
Silicon Valley AI Character
No. I thought that was the company policy these days.
- [47:51]
Brian
Okay, well, your AI just failed ethically.
- [47:54]
Silicon Valley AI Character
That's unclear. It's possible that Son of Anton decided that the most efficient way to get rid of all the bugs was to get rid of all the software, which is technically and statistically correct. But artificial neural nets are sort of a black box, so we'll never know for sure.
- [48:10]
Brian
Hey, Richard, did you order meat?
- [48:13]
Tivo
Like a bunch of meat?
- [48:15]
Brian
Like 4,000 pounds of meat?
- [48:20]
Silicon Valley AI Character
Interesting. I put Son of Anton on finding us cheap hamburgers for lunch. It looks like the reward function was a little underspecified.
- [48:29]
Brian
Okay, from now on, Son of Anton is banned. Just write code like a normal human being, please.
- [48:37]
Tivo
I love how this named Son of Anton was the name of the AI. And so the, The. The one clip, if you missed it was, you know, your AI deleted all the software. You know, it. It sucks. Your AI sucks. And he's like, well, that's unclear. We said, fix all the bugs. And the quickest best way to fix all the bugs was just delete all the software because it's poorly written. Oh, man, that's a great clip and a great show if anybody's into the tech focused things.
- [49:02]
Brian
And it even looks like an AI agent jumped in our YouTube comments here and they're kind of spamming us with some.
- [49:09]
Tivo
Oh, my God. Yeah, ignore that, folks.
- [49:14]
Brian
That is not us.
- [49:16]
Tivo
These bots out report. I need a. I need a moderator. Where's Steve? I need a moderator. If you're in the live, guys, ignore that. Whatever. I'm not even gonna say it, but you see it in the comments. Ignore that. Don't click on any links. Those are AI bots hearing our conversation and coming in. But we do have. I know Andrew was in here. I know Trinity was in here. The Fitz was in here. Grant's in here. We love all you guys. Thanks for tuning in. And if you could give us a like. And in the bottom right, if you're new here, I guess even if you're an AI bot, give us a subscriber because, hey, all the, all the subscribers help, but definitely ignore the messages. You see them there. Let's transition and we'll wrap up with some crypto specific stuff. So while we were gone last week, Brian, there was a, you know, there was a World Liberty FI summit down in West Palm at Mar A Lago. All the big wigs and crypto were there. The Trumps were hosting them. And it seems like there's a push for this stablecoin stuff. So I saw that there's a March 1st deadline for stablecoin rewards. They want to get this worked out between, you know, the Brian Armstrongs of the world and the banks. It looks like a White house deadline of March 1 is on the table. And so I think what was the most interesting. And we'll play this clip here. Let's listen in on Brian Armstrong. This is actually live from Mar a Lago here in this interview from last week. But, you know, Brian Armstrong might be changing his tune a little bit from trying to get this bill held up like he was before.
- [50:47]
Grainger Announcer
What is the status of the market structure regulation that you famously blocked from passing a few weeks ago?
- [50:55]
Brian Armstrong
Yeah, well, we're here meeting with crypto companies, bank representatives and senators as well to see if we can get to a solution on market structure. And one of the big issues that did come up in the past was this idea of stablecoins on rewards. I wouldn't say we blocked it. In fact, nobody, I think, in the crypto space has been working harder on this over the last year try to get some legislation. What we did say was the current draft we had some issues with it. I think that caused everyone to come back to the table. And there's now a path forward where we can get a win, win, win outcome here. Win for the crypto industry, a win for the banks, and a win for the American consumer to get President Trump's crypto agenda through to the finish line so we can make America the crypto
- [51:31]
Tivo
capital of the world.
- [51:32]
Grainger Announcer
Were you surprised? What was your reaction when he, when he, after he's obviously been so involved in this and was so deep on it and then came out against the version of the bill, how did you react to that?
- [51:40]
Unidentified Crypto Industry Expert
Well, look, I have concern, I had concerns about the bill. Still have some concerns about the bill. We weren't done. We got hung up on the issue of rewards on stable coins, which is really, in my mind, really shouldn't be part of this equation.
- [51:51]
Grainger Announcer
Can we just explain this, like, why, why people should care about this, what, what the whole yield rewards on stablecoins thing is about?
- [51:58]
Unidentified Crypto Industry Expert
Well, unless you're on a bank, you probably shouldn't care because if you're an American consumer, what it means is that the cash that you hold, you're going to have competition to pay more interest, so you're going to be able to get more money for the money that you have in your wallet or the money that you have in some sort of account. So this is very, very good for working Americans because ultimately this is about giving Americans more rewards for being able to have cash on reserve, be able to get paid quicker, be able to transact faster, democratize the financial systems. But we're going to get this bill across the finish line. But I would say when? Hopefully by April. Hopefully by April.
- [52:36]
Tivo
Hopefully by April. I'm going to pull up the Poly Market Clarity act next. But thoughts? Oh, wow. Dipping down there. I mean, we were up to 82% last week. Looking at it now it's at 46%. Interesting, interesting. Brian, that's a live update there. I mean, that's within. Looks like this thing's falling down from the last day even. Yeah, 54, down to 46. What do you think's going on Capitol Hill there?
- [53:05]
Brian
I'm not sure. That's, that's interesting what's happening here. I'm still pretty confident that we get this Clarity act across the finish line in the year 2026. I think there's a lot of industry leaders that want to make it happen, and a lot of it would not be good for anyone, including banks, to not have this Clarity act get finalized in 2026. But that is interesting to see it kind of take that drop. But we've seen that everything's like a roller coaster right now.
- [53:31]
Tivo
Yeah.
- [53:32]
Brian
You know, I mean I can't even take it at face value half of this stuff because if everything feels like it's so, so volatile. But that's my warm water, that's my duck water at the duck pond is. I love volatility, man, I do. I, I, I, I really get settled in for it. But that, that's interesting. But I'm.
- [53:51]
Tivo
Well that, that's why these prediction markets are so good. Because if you really do have a strong can take, you know, the sides of the market. I mean again, if you think it's going to get passed in 2026, they're selling dollar bills for 46 cents over on Polymarker right now. And you know, people, you know that are long term listeners and tune in every week, they won't forget. They won't forget. When we watched, when Brendan and I were live pulling up this chart and it dropped down to like 20 something and we said, yeah, that's probably a, you know, at least as a bet, that's probably a good bet to take it in the 20s. And I believe there was a listener out there named Brian who was tuning into that one and got in on that.
- [54:29]
Brian
Yeah, that was, that was some alpha from the boys, Brendan. And that's why I tune in when I'm not on the rundown. I'm in there chirping in the comments and I love it, dude, I love it because you know, if I don't like what somebody says or like on there, I'll definitely let TVO and Brendan know. But yeah, I don't know, it's, I, I feel like it's gonna be in good shape here, but there may be some ups and downs and everyone should be moving in a uni unified way.
- [54:59]
Tivo
That's a great point. You know who else loves prediction markets? Apparently bitwise friends of the show. Truly bitwise filing for prediction market backed ETFs under the name Prediction Shares. Looks like they, if we blow up this tweet by James and another friend of the show, of course looks like they're at least trying to get into some, I guess these are trying to go live pretty soon. Looking for the house election in 2026 in the Senate and then gearing up for the 2028 election. So something in the ETF form that is tied to prediction markets that you'll be able to trade. Very interesting vehicle. The, the the most interesting thing is like, I mean I'd love. We're gonna have, you know, we always have Matt and the Bitwise team on a couple times a year. So it'd be interesting, kind of talk to them like, hey, how's this going to price? How's this going to trade? And again, they're offering things to clients who might not want to dive into the Poly markets, the cow she's and learn, you know, or it's just another thing that they have to fund and fill. So it'll be interesting to see their angle of like not only marketing these, but funding these and pricing these and see how they'll trade. But again, something in the space that we'll be keeping an eye on for sure. Any. Any take on this for ETF wise for prediction markets?
- [56:12]
Brian
No, prediction markets aren't going anywhere. We're in the prediction market super cycle. We've been talking about it for a year now. It's, it's. I think we're gonna see more and more things get spun up like this. I think, I think they, I know Poly Market, with their five minute or with certain markets, they're gonna create ETF markets around certain markets. Like if you want to invest in like AI agents, it's just the sky's the limit how creative we can get with these prediction markets. And I know I threw some stuff on the sheet there, TiVo and it actually kind of goes hand in hand with the prediction markets. Do you want to talk about this, Zach xbt. Have you seen this at all?
- [56:51]
Tivo
Yeah, yeah, I saw. He's like looking to try and expose a big, big business here, but tee it up for the people.
- [56:57]
Brian
Yeah, I mean, Zach xpt, for anybody that's interested, is like a blockchain forensic expert, kind of was like just I think a regular dude a few years ago and has actually been like, the FBI's reached out to him for forensic evaluation of blockchain. So he says he's dropping a major
- [57:16]
Tivo
bomb.
- [57:16]
Brian
It sounds like on in two days of one of crypto's most profitable businesses where employees abused internal data to trade insider trading over a prolonged period of time. And then you can actually jump over. There's a prediction market. I, I put it in our group chat or telegram. I go, oh, the insider traders are gonna have to insider trade this on Poly Market to get all their money back or pay their legal fees. So there's a lot of different companies listed here. He did go back into the comments today, except I'm following this pretty closely because the Last thing I need is like a coinbase for this to happen on. He did say something along the lines. I hope, I hope my investigation. It's all true, but I hope my investigation doesn't underwhelm. So if it was like a Coinbase or a Binance, I. I feel like you wouldn't probably be putting that up because that would cause a ripple effect. And the number one leader right now is Meteora, and for good reason. I don't know if you remember the whole Meteora thing. They're. They're essentially a Dex out there, and they're the ones who. It was a guy named Ben Chao who's since left, and he did a whole bunch of unfair launches. They were behind that Libra token, remember, with Argentina's president?
- [58:30]
Tivo
Yeah.
- [58:31]
Brian
So. So they had some Melania accusations. So it seems like the markets are pricing it being Meteora, but this is. This is like where like these prediction markets are super interesting to me. And it's like people can, like, talk out of one side of their mouth. If we didn't have these prediction markets, you could probably hear people just fighting a whole bunch of companies like Coinbase's Geminis, blah, blah, without. But whenever you go to the actual prediction market, if somebody was like, screaming, oh, it's Coinbase, I know it's Coinbase, they could just be BSing you. And then when you look at the prediction market, you know, they're really nowhere on this list. I think like a 1% or 3% chance of it actually happening. So I. I think it's interesting. This kind of endorses that whole prediction market truth of what who could be the leaders out there? And it wouldn't be surprising to me. It would almost be out of this entire list. Meteora being like the leader here for all the shady stuff Ben Chow did and what they've done in the past, I would assume that's it, that's who it is. But you never know. I. I don't think it's some of these other major companies out here. So when this dropped yesterday, I'll be honest, that was like that little emoji with that drop of sweat coming down my face. I was like, oh, man, this is the last thing we need is some huge blow, like finance is behind all this insider trading. It's just gonna be another black eye. But I think if it's Meteora, it's. It's going to be taken like, oh, yeah, we already knew that, you know, that, you know, he launched a Libra token. Ben Chow left because of insider trading. But, but we'll, we'll wait and see. It's in a couple days and I'll definitely be paying attention.
- [60:10]
Tivo
Yeah. As we all will. I think it was great to bring that up. And again, another way prediction markets are adding to the. I don't know if it's the fun of this specific topic, but just adding to the lore and adding to the information gathering to see, see, you know, a Meteora up more than double than any other option on those betting markets. Let's, let's close on a high note here as we close out just kind of. We had such a fun episode on Friday around Punch the Monkey and, and we truly said like, hey, we, we called this super early. It was an absolute gem from Brian and Joe. Again, if you're somebody that is interested in kind of those trenches of the meme coin markets, I always do have that link down for momentum money makers VIP to get those first alerts. But you know, we talked about it on the podcast even at such a low valuation and it skyrocketed up. I believe it was an 8x from when we mentioned it on the pod last. And we kind of said on Friday we did a full recap of. Hey, we called it. It went up and it's been a wild fun. It's completely taken over the Internet. But we did say with caution that, you know, hey, we're not in a bull market. You know, we think may, if we were, we were thinking maybe it could go for, you know, and take over that fat, spicy hippo mu. Dang. But you know, did. Did Punch the Monkey cool off any, any takes or any, any updates for the people?
- [61:31]
Brian
Yeah, I looked at it before the show. It looked like it's a little cooled off. I mean, Punch through his, uh, they're like, like there's like a three hour long wait at this zoo right now. And Punch did throw, throw. Oh up a little bit. You know, that's a, that's a nice little touch. He did throw his stuffy, his IKEA orangutan like into the, into the pit or something along those lines. So again, I'm, I would hate to say, like, I'm not a buyer here, but I'm not buying it here because I feel like it's kind of ran its course. But it certainly is viral as anything that we've seen. We have like girlfriends and wives of people I know saying that they're crying in bed at night about the sob story that Punch is going. So I can never say never because it's been one of the more viral things that that's happened. But I, I still think that we need some, like, we need some blood out there. We need punch. Punch in another monkey or like, you know, we need, we need something to shock us, to get this to where we need. But who knows? It's. It's a super interesting community. It's a, it's an unbelievable story and it's, you know, the charts bounced a little bit. It looked like it was kind of like trending down only today, and then we had a little bounce. So maybe while we were live here, there's a little controversy to get it pumping again.
- [62:48]
Tivo
Yeah, I think it's definitely one of those things where it's, you know, it's complete, you know, gambling ricochet of, you know, if can this monkey make more news? Because I will say that to your point, the wives and the girlfriends and just the average person is talking about punch and sharing the storyline still. So if something crazy happens again, then, yeah, like, yeah, the token might, you know, obviously rise with that. But there's people that. This is, this is past crypto for sure, and, and is definitely mainstream, I guess, news, even, if you will. But yeah, like, kind of as we called it. Hey, we spotted it early. That's what we try to do. That's what momentum, money makers is all about. Spot it early, get in the trade. Trade. And if you were a listener of the podcast, we gave it out, you know, before it even went up, you know, 8x plus. So you're in the right place to get the alpha again. If you could just throw a, like, if you're new here, subscribe. And, and I truly do mean that from our AI conversation, if stuff we're talking about is interesting to you, please let us know if it's not. And you need, you know, hey, you guys are drifting off from the crypto storyline. Let us know that too. We're all about feedback, we're all about making as much episodes, which as much alpha as we can for you. And then again, if you want more access to us, more access to the team and the research, check the links below. Join CRYP Nation. The. The vibes in there are really, really high in this time and we see a lot of bullish, you know, bullishness ahead for, you know, again, the, the macro story lines got a transition to, to a different kind of pace of all this negativity with the software decline. But, but we see kind of the, the green shoots, if you will, and we think there's a lot of opportunity out there. So you're in the right place and we really do appreciate everybody listening. But that's going to be all for Brian and I today. I will be back on Friday. I'll make that a landing page soon. Friday afternoon with Brendan, we'll be doing some technical analysis, so if you can. I think it's going to be 12 Eastern is the to be the live. If you want to tune in for that on the live and get some of your technical analysis questions answered. We're going to be doing a tech analysis deep dive with Brendan on Friday. But that's all of us for today. Thank you all for listening and we'll talk. Bye everybody.
- [65:11]
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