← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Is Altcoin Season Here?! Plus Fear and Greed Index Review
00:48:14
Loading summary
Transcript49 lines
- [00:00]
Brendan
Foreign. Welcome back to the Crypto Rundown where we talk about everything that's happening in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And welcome back here to another volatile week in the markets. There's a lot going on. We're getting a little bit of whiplash when it comes to both bitcoin and altcoins. But we, what we can see and what we have noticed here recently is that Ethereum has started to outperform the market. Not just bitcoin, but also things like Salana and other mainstream altcoins. Ethereum starting to wake up and this is raising the big question, which is, is it altcoin season? Has altcoin season finally descended upon us? We're going to talk about it. We also have Robinhood officially buying bitstamp in that process. Closing off, we have Poland and Japan electing pro bitcoin presidents. And we also have the addition of bitcoin returning or coming back into 401ks. This has been a big hot topic. This could potentially unlock trillions of dollars that could flow into these things and ultimately push up the price of bitcoin even higher. We want to reference the Fear and greed index and we got some funny stories in between. So we hope everyone is ready for another action packed week here on the crypto rundown. TiVo, are you ready? Is that enough? You know, I know that that's not our most, you know, action packed week. You know, sometimes we come in here and it's like a five minute long intro of everything that's going on and we say this, I feel like on half the episodes where I maybe it's going to be a short episode this week, but there's always stuff that comes up in real time and, and it goes longer.
- [01:55]
TiVo
Just overall, I think Salon may go away was the, the term that everybody likes to say. But if you did that, if you did that this year, you would have missed quite the rally. So that's all the more reason to, you know, stick around every week and keep tabs on what's going on. And you know, if you want to call boring in the hundred thousand dollar bitcoin range, if you want to call that boring, I think any one of us would have taken that, you know, a year or two ago. So I still think it's exciting times.
- [02:24]
Brendan
Yeah, you know, it definitely is this. We've had People raise this question internally of should we partake in the sell and may go away this year? And I've taken the very clear stance of I don't think that that's viable right now. Why wouldn't we look at selling sell in May go away? Especially like for bitcoin and a lot of these altcoins. Well, you look at it, when we had sell in January, February, March, eight, you know, parts of April, that was the sell, right? You know, now that we have already taken the tumble, do you really want to sell after we've already had the retracement of like 30 plus percent on Bitcoin? 50, 60, 70% on altcoins? Is that really the time to be selling? And I don't think that it is. And so I think you're right. You know, we had this inverse play, right. Traditionally, people do like to look at May and say, oh, sell in May, go away, come back in the fall and everything works itself out. But that's not an evergreen strategy. You know, you got to look at what's happening in the market in real time. And you know, we've been saying here for at least several weeks, you know, a couple of months, saying, look at the value of bitcoin. And we presented the evidence, we've looked at the rsi, the, we've looked at the strengthen or the fear and greed index, we've looked at the moving averages, we've looked at the price action, we've looked at the news catalyst and we were looking at it down there and also doing a bit of historical analysis and just saying, hey, this looks like a bottom. This is typically what bitcoin does when it's getting ready to reverse. Now could it go lower? Yeah, and we talked about some of the variables, but we were saying bitcoin is at a fire sale and altcoins 2 down there were at a fire sale opportunity. And now you look at the rally that bitcoin and etherium and solana and Sui and hyper liquid and fart coin and a lot of these cryptos have had off of those April lows. And you know, the large caps are up 50, 60, 70 plus percent to the upside. And a lot of these altcoins are up well over 1 to 300% to the upside. And the big question and concern I think a lot of people have had down here is what, why is my favorite altcoin not performing as well as some of these others? And what I would say to that is that it's not that all altcoins are Doing bad. It's just some. And you know, maybe this is a hot take, but when you look at the state of the altcoin market right now, there are so many altcoins, so many. And you know, I truly do believe that we're at a stage of the market where not every altcoin is going to succeed anymore. There's just too many out there. Liquidity is spit is split. There's going to be the winners and there's going to be the losers. And not every crypto and every altcoin is going to be a winner everymore. You know, we've seen this. You know, Bitcoin goes up, Ethereum goes up, Solana goes up. And then there's other altcoins that just continue to bleed and bleed and bleed. So I think for everyone out there, there's two ways that I think you should measure your altcoins performance. How is it up off of the April lows versus Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. Now those are up again around 60 to 80% given the altcoin and or given the cryptocurrency there. So how is it up there? Right. And then also what is it down over maybe the last year, year and a half? Right, because we're measuring our risk and our reward with altcoins. You should always be looking at them saying I should be getting more reward because I am taking more risk. So if you're looking at that and you're saying, well, my altcoins only up 30% off the lows, then it doesn't make a lot of sense. Right? You know, we're looking at these altcoins and it's up half as much as these large caps, but you're incurring probably twice the amount of risk. So why would you ever take a trade where you're looking at this saying I'm going to take on twice the amount of risk for half of the reward. It just doesn't make sense, especially when there are so many other altcoins out there that are winning. And that's going to hurt some people's feelings. They're going to listen to this, they're going to see it, they're going to say, well, it's just the late bloomer, it's just this and that. It's just not performing at the moment because of X, Y and Z. And you can justify it however you want. And I'm sure there are going to be examples out there where some altcoins, they are late bloomers, they are just not performing at the moment, and it is just a short stretch of time. However, I think it's a dangerous approach to look at that and apply that to everything and say, well, mine is different. So I hope that this acts as a little bit of a wakeup call to the just everyone that's listening out there. Not every altcoin has to be a winner anymore. We're not at a stage of the market where there's 100, 200 altcoins at most. You know, now we have tens of thousands, and if you're counting all the meme coins, hundreds of thousands, millions of altcoins that are out there. And we're just not in the same kind of environment that we were in in 2017, 2018, even like 2021, that era. So the space has changed a little bit, but there's still a lot of altcoins that are doing phenomenal. So I want to go ahead and I want to throw up the chart here and we can take a look at bitcoin first and we can talk about just the stage of the crypto market, right? We hit the new highs on bitcoin, we have not hit the new highs on Solana and Ethereum here recently. But I do believe that altcoins and this altcoin season could be coming our way. And I want to show some of the evidence for that. So let's go ahead and throw this up and we will start off with bitcoin first. So bitcoin over here, there's a couple of things to notice. Number one, you know, we've had this really nice move off the bottom, right? This kind of April low, Bitcoin rose from bottom to top about 50%. Well, even at the moment, you know, bitcoin's up about 40%. When we look at Ethereum over here, as I was saying earlier, from bottom to where we're currently at, it's up about 88%. And for Solana, this thing is up around 63%. So Bitcoin's about 40, Solana is about 63. Ethereum's up about 88% off the lows. So I'm going to look at this and say, hey, you know, with all these other altcoins, that is the minimum that I want to, you know, that's, that's the bottom level of the standard. I want my altcoins to be up at least around that area. But for bitcoin specifically, it's had this nice rally and we saw it kind of move up, consolidate to the 20 day moving average, move up, consolidate to the 20 day moving average and just rinse and repeat this process. And now what we're seeing here, TiVo is a little bit of a pivot away from this where it is breaking below the 20 day moving average for the first time since its pivot and its break it back above it here. Now what this means is that this is the first real pullback that bitcoin has had since it bottomed out in April. Right? You can say whatever you want. There really hasn't been a pullback in bitcoin's price action since its bottom in April. It's consolidated, it's gone sideways here, but this really wasn't a pullback. Same thing over here. It went sideways for a little bit, but it really wasn't a pullback. Same with this third leg up over here. We've gone sideways, but there has not been a true pullback pullback. This break of the 20 day moving average is the first real pullback that bitcoin has seen. And we're noticing this and we can confirm this because of the break in structure with the 20 day moving average no longer being used as support and instead you have the break below it, the retest of this as resistance and the failure to break back above it. So a previous support level is turning into resistance. I think now we're looking at this and saying there is the potential, you know, if this little short little trend line, this little support line breaks here that you can see on the white line. If this breaks, then we could likely fall and see bitcoin go back down below $100,000. Now I want to clarify, a break of the 20 day moving average is a short term like indicator, right? This is the shortest of the moving averages that we use over here and it coincides with the short term trend, not the midterm trend, not the long term trend, not the macro trend. This is saying, hey, all shorter term stuff, the uptrend here is very clearly right, still intact. We're looking at this and saying this is very clearly still an uptrend. However, a short term pullback could be something to just stay aware of. You don't have to short it, you don't have to sell everything. But just be aware that, you know, hey, if we do see, you know, some, some selling pressure here, it's, it's not too unforeseen. This is something that could realistically happen and still have the market be completely healthy. Now the most viable areas here, I think on the Bitcoin chart, TiVo is going to be around, like I said, you know, probably the mid to upper $90,000 level. If we put on the visible range volume profile so that we can see where the volume point of control is, you can see that this brings us to a level right around the mid-90s. This is where the bulk of the volume was, was conducted here. Now, coincidentally, this is right where the 50 day moving average is. This is where the 200 day moving average is. And this is where the, again, the big volume point of control here from this histogram on the right side of the chart, that's where this is as well. So I think that that mid to upper 90 area is like the golden pocket to look at if we do have a retracement back down to the downside on bitcoin. But other than that, again, I think the big picture looks fine. It's not something that I'm sweating, but it is something that I'm preparing myself for because, you know, I've been, I've been waiting patiently for some bigger buys. TiVo, you know me, you know, me and TiVo over here, we both like to trade. We like a little, a little bit of leverage. We like to, you know, have our call options. We do, we have some fun with it. And so, you know, what I've been doing over here is being a little bit more just careful with my positions. I'm not getting levered up at 105,000 or 110,000. I mean, easing off of some of those positions, preparing to maybe redeploy them at a lower price. But I'm really not selling anything other than like the leverage plays taking a little bit of profit here. And I'm not doing anything stupid like shorten the market at a place like this.
- [12:41]
TiVo
Attention cigar enthusiasts. Today we're thrilled to introduce to you Cigar Bid, America's number one online cigar auction site. If you're looking for unbeatable deals on every type of cigar, listen up. At Cigar Bid, you have the power to set your own price, often scoring top quality cigars, cigars and accessories at prices much lower than retail. Others want you to believe they are always giving you their best deal. But at Cigar Bid, you get to decide the deal. It's the cigar site the rest of the industry does not want you to know about. Score deals at the best prices every single day. The live auctions are fast paced and exciting, making every bit a thrilling experience. Check out Freefall to watch the prices drop in real time or the power hour for our fastest pace auctions. Cigar Bid has a text update so you get notified when you're outbid and get exclusive deals right to you. And if bidding is not your thing, then no problem at all because you can buy the cigars straight up at awesome low prices as well. So no matter what you're looking for, you'll find it at Cigar Bid. So if you're ready to enjoy the fun and the convenient way to purchase fine cigars at great prices online, visit cigar bid.comCrypto101 that's cigar bid.comCrypto 101 Happy bidding. Have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared tried? With Plus500 futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity. You'll be able to trade in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as $100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gas and much more. Explore equity indices like Energy Metals, Forex and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500 with over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify and this is not personal financial advice. Plus 500 it's trading with a plus.
- [14:47]
Unknown
At Energy Trust of Oregon we that energy isn't just what happens when you flip a switch, it's what happens afterwards. It's a home that can provide both shelter and peace of mind. It's a business that can run more efficiently and keep their dream alive. And it's communities that can thrive today and flourish tomorrow. That's energy. And that's why we partner with local utility companies to help you save energy and lower costs. For cash incentives and resources that can help power your life, visit energytrust.org now.
- [15:17]
Brendan
I think the next logical question actually t I want to pass it back to you. I've just been ranting about the bitcoin chart but you know you got the.
- [15:25]
TiVo
Yeah, the leverage like you said, the plays that we like to have fun on and make some trades responsibly. Of course you don't know. I mean you could play a breakout But I think like you just kind of said you probably want to see some more confirmation before you go down that route. The most interesting thing that I think we're going to segment to here and you're going to talk about is kind of Ethereum, right? Ethereum's rocketed off the bottom, it's led off the bottom, it's outperforming, outperformed Bitcoin since the local bottom around Liberation Day. And then, you know, altcoins kind of followed it up until this point. So we're kind of at that interesting spot as well, right, like altcoins, you know, Ethereum kind of always that like leverage beta play against Bitcoin in the crypto market. So people want to know, you know, hey, do we like Ethereum here? You know, Ethereum, I mean, over the last year, year, right on this downtrend for Ethereum, I mean, how many times has been, how many times has Ethereum been dead? We had the funeral and we've even visited maybe the tombstone and place flowers multiple times over the last, you know, year, six months. Especially on the timeline. I mean X Crypto X timeline has been just absolutely eviscerating ETH during the downtrend and now it was just an absolute face ripping rally, you know, back to some, some support levels. But you know, what are you seeing here? And is Eth leading us out, out into an altcoin season or is, are you taking caution there as well?
- [16:50]
Brendan
It's looking good. It is. You know, you can kind of see for all my technical analysis friends, all the charting gurus out there, you're gonna take one look at this and say that looks like an ascending triangle and I would agree with you. Now there is a little bit of, of external risk here, right? If Bitcoin tanks, Solana tanks, the whole crypto market tanks, Ethereum is probably going to get drawn down. But I will say, you know, you're right in the sense that Ethereum has been outperforming. We looked at it up almost 90 since the April low. That's beating Bitcoin, that's beating XRP, it's beating Solana, it's beating a lot of these large caps. And that is good news. And Ethereum just is generally looking stronger. You look at the crypto market on the day and Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin, Solana, xrp, Sui Aerodrome, Ando, Avax, Axel are like the list goes on. You know, Ethereum is outperforming just about everything that is mainstream on the day here. So Ethereum is looking strong since, you know, over the last two months, but it's also just looking strong in the short term. You're seeing it form these higher lows, building pressure into the upside. It's got a stable level of resistance right around the 200 day moving average. And you know, it looks like we have been wearing down this resistance line. So I think that so long as the crypto market as a whole can hold it together, Ethereum looks really good. You know, I would like to see this thing break out back above 3K. However, it is kind of contingent. You know, if the whole crypto market starts falling to the downside that is going to drag Etherium with it a little bit. But it is looking stronger, you know, for the first time in a long time, TiVo Etherium is looking stronger than the rest of the crypto market. And I've actually been trading Etherium here, which is something that for basically the last like six months to a year I've been very against the idea of trading Etherium. Right. You know, you look at the bitcoin or the Ethereum bitcoin chart and there's just been, you've been fighting the trend trying to do this and I guess you're technically still kind of doing that, but we are starting to see some strength come back to this. And this is something that I have been playing and I've been trading and again, just relatively speaking, Ethereum is getting strength and dominance back and it's, it's performing quite well. So I think for everyone out there, keep an eye on it. I'm not saying buy the top, not trying to give financial advice, but keep an eye on the chart, pay attention to Ethereum. I think it's time that we start keeping an eye on it once again and watch where it kind of goes from here. Now for the rest of the altcoin market and just kind of the market in general, bitcoin dominance, you know, speaking is, is still really, really high. We look at this and say bitcoin dominance is still strong. It's high up generally with the climbing bitcoin dominance. It's not great for the altcoin market. So we're also keeping a close eye on this, especially as it gets towards 70, which is typically where we see bitcoin dominance top out every cycle, as you can see from the chart on the screen right now. But you know, the other thing that we were saying is there have been a handful of other altcoins that have been performing quite well here. You know, I think Sui is one of those where if we look at it off the lows, it's still up about 90%. Another big one that has been crushing. It has been hype, you know, hyper liquid, just continually seeing a lot of upside. It's up 277off the lows. I'm kind of been keeping an eye on Euler, which really just never stopped the team uptrend. But since April, this one's up about 74% off the lows. Fart coin, same deal. You know, this thing's up about 450%. A has been crushing it, still pushing, you know, for its third green day in a row, it's up about 140% off the lows. And so I bring these up to just show everyone, you know, let's look at syrup too. This is a group that we've had on the podcast, up 375. We've had them on multiple times. We've talked about them. You know, maker's been kind of ripping here recently. This is another one that's up, you know, almost 80 off the lows. And so we bring all these up because again, going back to that original point of it's not. We're not in a market environment where every single altcoin is getting destroyed. We're just not. You know, there's a lot of altcoins and mainstream ones, right? You know, Maker hyper liquids, mainstream now. Ave's super OG and mainstream. You know, Far Coin is one of the largest meme coins, Sui one of the largest layer ones. Like, there's a lot of projects out there that again, are doing phenomenal, that are up hundreds of percent just in the. In the last two months. So this might be a time to kind of reevaluate what's going on here. I'm not saying every coin has to be of hundreds of percent, but if you have a coin that's like red since April especially, it's a bit of a red flag in my opinion. But, you know, I don't want to beat a dead horse with those points because I do think altcoin season is coming and the strength that we're seeing in ETH is and very well could be a clear indication of that. And, you know, if that's not enough evidence for you, we'll start transitioning here into the news and the catalyst, because I know TA is not everyone's cup of tea, but BlackRock, you know, I don't know if you saw this TiVo, but I have a picture on the screen right now which is showing BlackRock and BlackRock has been buying Ethereum. I saw that they were selling Bitcoin, buying Ethereum and this kind of feeds into the narrative that we were just talking about, which is that Ethereum looks strong relative to the rest of the crypto market. And this is a good sign. You know, money's flowing back into Ethereum. They're starting to get a lot of attention. And again, a strong Ethereum is good for altcoins. So we want to see strength come back to Ethereum. We want to see strength come back to, you know, a lot of these mainstream L1s, these large caps. And if that happens, I think that that helps push up the rest of the altcoin market. So any.
- [22:49]
TiVo
Yeah, well, I think, and I know with our next topic with Robinhood as well, like BlackRock, Robinhood, these companies are looking to kind of tokenize traditional stocks and other assets and you know, they're going to be choosing, you know, Ethereum Solana. Obviously there's, you know, other options out there but those are the two main ones that I know we've seen. And just you know, all that positive news around, you know, a chain like Ethereum when the price is rocketing and now you have blackrock and Robin Hood starting to talk about it for, you know, using it for tokenization. And it's, you know, this, it's the story of the week, right? Whatever the headline of the news is, that's where the people tend to tend to go. So Ethereum was dead for the longest time like we talked about. Now it's back and so you're going to start seeing why it's back. And usually markets are what a forward looking mechanism so price rockets and then you start hearing the news kind of behind it just like in the stock market as well. So you know, always something to stay a prize to and that, that's kind of why you're here because we break it down hopefully before, during and after the fact as well. But yeah, Robin, Robin Hood with some, with some huge news kind of it was announced that they bought bitstamp. They finally just closed it. And the, the Robin Hood crypto team, Johan Kerbot, who we've had on the program before started talking about it. Even Vlad was talking about it. The acquisition and the growth that this gives for Robin Hood in the crypto markets, basically worldwide, right? This is a, this is a worldwide type of acquisition that kind of gets them into other markets around the world. So you know, kind of that, that crypto play for Robinhood continues to Grow.
- [24:30]
Brendan
It does. And we, we joke about this. It's literally every other week we come on here, we're like, all right, you know, what Robinhood title is there going to be? And, you know, for people who haven't been keeping up, Robinhood has made crypto such a gigantic portion of their company. And, you know, I don't even know if that's the correct way to put it, but they've grown into a spot where crypto has just exploded as a part of their business, right? They saw the opportunity, they bet on it, they made the right moves. And now crypto represents a huge part in a growing part of their business. And it can, you know, every single, it feels like every single earnings call, they come on, they're like, oh, well, we increased our crypto side of business by like 30%, 40%. And that's just been happening quarter over quarter over quarter. And they keep making these acquisitions, right? We talked about them recently acquiring WonderFi up in Canada. Now we're talking about them acquiring Bitstamp, which is a huge crypto name. I think that this happened for $200 million, which is just crazy. And so they're continuing to expand, but importantly, they're continuing to support and bet on the crypto industry as a whole here. So we're seeing this happen from Robinhood. You know, obviously we're seeing this happen from blackrock and Fidelity and JP Morgan and Charles Schwab and everyone. They're all making big plans and bets on the crypto space as a whole. You know, just before we started this call, you know, me and TiVo were talking and we're starting to see all these other Treasuries come out, right? You know, all these new Bitcoin Treasuries just recently and last week we talked about the new Ethereum Treasuries. You know, just before the call, we saw an XRP treasury, you know, getting planned over in China for I think 2 or $300 million. And you know, just below this article, you can see that Classover is planning to raise $500 million through convertible notes to go and get their hands on Solana in its Treasury. And so there is mass adoption that is happening now. And the supply continues to dwindle every time this happens. And it adds up. When you have these hundred million dollars, these billion dollar Treasuries, you know, the ETFs acquiring billions and billions of dollars. It really does eat away at the supply, which ultimately helps push price to the upside. So we like to see it from Robinhood you know, they're one of our good friends, good allies of the crypto space. Again, another group who we've had on the podcast. In fact, we've had both Robinhood and bitstamp on the podcast, I believe, multiple times. And again, we like what we're doing and we're glad to see so much support and love for the crypto space.
- [27:22]
TiVo
Yeah. And I think a cool thing with Robinhood and you could say this about the company as a whole and their crypto, I guess you could say volume and acquisitions and just the trading around it is, they're growing up with their user. So if you go back to like the Robin Hood launch of, you know, 20, 19, 20, like the traditional, the Tradfi market looked at Robin Hood as a casino and you could make, you could make serious arguments that it has aspects of that even today, I mean, not offering the contracts. I just got a notification this morning that they're doing the betting contracts for the NBA Finals. So, you know, the, the casino reference tied to back in the day when it was the meme stock craze of GameStop and all that stuff. And then obviously crypto, you know, you could make that argument. But I, I think what Tradfi missed, and then you can look at the stock price of Robinhood and how it's, you know, gone up basically 700, 700% in like a year and a half is that the, the user is also growing up. So the, yeah, you go in and you buy GameStop and maybe you won that trade, maybe you lost. You know, you're sticking around and you're learning and you're, you're, you know, yeah, maybe you're gambling a little bit here and there and having some fun with some leverage, but you're learning and you're also investing and they have, you know, their 401k products and their IRA products and you, there's just, there's so much to do on there and, and that younger generation is growing up and they're getting better jobs and they're making more money and then they can invest more money and they're, they are interested in bitcoin and they are interested in all coins. And so I, I just feel like the, the growth of the company is, is growing with its users and then that, that ties perfectly into bitcoin and crypto. Right? Because as you know, sure, there's people that are 40, 50, 60 year olds that probably love bitcoin as well, but the majority is definitely younger and, and the younger generation likes bitcoin. More than gold. We've talked many times on the show about those stats. So as the transfer of wealth, you know, kind of trickles down to the next generation, you can kind of see how that bitcoin, the gold ketchup trade can happen. And, and I think that, you know, again, we've, we've talked about this topic before, but Robin Hood is, is, you know, positioning itself to, to be a part of that. Whereas, you know, vanguard, like we, we've mentioned in the past, is not, you know, their UI is outdated. They're not offering Bitcoin ETFs. It's just, it's an old experience where that old guard of finance is like, oh, yes, you need to invest, but you need to give us your money and we'll invest it for you. And yeah, you can, we'll send you a, you know, we'll send you some mail once a month to let you see your portfolio. But, like, we'll handle it. Don't worry about it. And, you know, the Robin Hood kind of, you know, different path of, you know, hey, finance, for all, you know, you control, you control your outcome. Like, come learn. And yeah, you're gonna learn through some ups and downs for sure, just like anything you've ever tried in life. But, you know, I think that's why that crypto play for Robinhood is so fun to follow.
- [30:27]
Brendan
Yeah, Yeah. I mean, you're spot on. And they know their audience well, which I think is telling. And that's what people want, right? People want something that's updated, it's modern, it's relatable. They want someone that listens to them, and that's kind of just what we're, we're getting, and we're seeing it very clearly through the crypto market. So it's just a big form of adoption. And, you know, the other ways that we're seeing adoption happening here, in a really big way, in fact, I would say even a bigger way is through what's happening over on the 401k side. Tiva, you referenced this a little bit last week, but this is a big deal. You know, the Trump administration acts as the Biden era barrier for crypto in 401k plans. And, you know, this is something that essentially prevented, you know, crypto from going into 401ks and what this means. And Ryan Rasmussen, again, someone who we've had on here, awesome guy, I want to give him credit for this post over from Bitwise. He says if just 1% of the $8 trillion in 401k funds flow into Bitcoin, that's $80 billion in new demand. And that's 2x what's flowed into Bitcoin. All right, that's 2x what has flown into these Bitcoin ETFs. It's a really big deal. It's a ton of money. So if we can double the amount of flows that bitcoin and these Bitcoin ETFs have had, and like, obviously that's going to impact price in a massive way. And that's not something unachievable. We're saying, we're not saying 20%, we're not saying 10%. We're not even saying 5% t, though. We're saying if 1% of 401k funds go into Bitcoin, it's $80 billion. It's double the ETF flows that we've seen so far. And it's a really big deal.
- [32:16]
TiVo
And that goes on par with when going back to Bitwise. When Matt Hogan was coming on during the ETF releases, he was talking about how, and I heard, you know, Larry Fink say the same thing is like, hey, once these ETFs go live and get, get kind of passed through the traditional finance, you know, process and they're investable, which is where we are, you know, now or in the last six months is like the, these funds are going to start putting 1 to 2%, 1 to 2% allocation to Bitcoin. And then now you heard, I think I brought it up on the show maybe two or three weeks ago. It's like Matt Hogan has made his rounds and he's updated his forecast. He's like, people aren't talking about 1 to 2 now. They're talking about 3 to 5. And so that percentage has increased. And so that, that kind of falls in line with Ryan's vision. Here is like, okay, if these bigger funds are, are doing a, you know, 3 to 5% allocation in Bitcoin, then the 401K is, is going to start off at 1. And again, maybe over time that grows, but it's falling in line with this kind of, again, growth of the market and acceptance of the market.
- [33:22]
Brendan
Yeah. I'm going to pull back up a tweet that I've posted previously, and it was a quote from BlackRock. And Larry Fink from BlackRock said if there is 2 to 5% of institutional portfolio allocation, this could bring the price of bitcoin to around $700,000. And Schwab was even saying, you know, Schwab said, hey, it's conditional, but bitcoin could go as high as a million dollars. So if we see that, you know, like you're talking about TiVo, you know, we could see Bitcoin push up to 700,000, maybe even a million dollars if we get just a few percentage points of institutional portfolio allocation. And again, that's a big deal. So I know it seems like a big number and we're talking about this, this clearly isn't going to be something that happens overnight by the end of this month. But as we zoom out to the big picture, the longer term, you know, wherever we, wherever we may be, even in a few years from now, you could look at these multi hundred thousand dollars, maybe even a million dollar bitcoin. And if we do get just a few percentage points of institutional portfolio allocation, suddenly this becomes a very realistic and achievable goal.
- [34:35]
TiVo
Now, I couldn't, couldn't agree more. Those price targets, I guess looked crazy months ago, but I guess, I guess not. And again, shout out to Matt Hogan one more time. But I kind of threw that on there because he predicted this. So Matt dropped 10 things to look out for 20, 25, and he circled there in green for the 401k prediction. So good for him. I know he's checking off multiple things in that box and hopefully there's, there's more to come. But building on your kind of who's holding bitcoin in the allocation, if you want to pull up that next one, the next chart there, I thought that was, that was interesting. I just saw that this morning and thought it was a cool one to, to pull up. It's in the sheet there under B. Who's holding bitcoin these days? It kind of just, yeah, it just kind of shows who, you know, I guess five years ago, 10 years ago, you wouldn't, you know, kind of believe this type of chart. But today, I mean, the numbers speak for themselves. So investment advisors have rocketed to the top of the number one spot here. And it's by, by a fair margin, you know, not, not quite double, but almost there. And you know that that wasn't the case two, three years ago. So yeah, I just, just thought that was an interesting one to throw up and didn't know if you had any thoughts on it, Brendan?
- [36:00]
Brendan
No, you know, I think that this is just going to continue to grow. You know, we're looking at this and this number is going to skyrocket. In fact, I think we're going to come back a year or two from now. And we're going to look at this and we're going to be like, holy moly. In the same way that we look at, you know, like $100 Etherium, we look at like a thousand or a $10,000 Bitcoin, we're going to come back and we're going to be like, this is pipsqueak numbers. You're telling me that there was a point in time recently where, you know, Trusts only had $36 million in Bitcoin and private equity only had 240 million and banks only, you're telling me banks only had 300 million in Bitcoin and stuff. And we're going to look at this and this is going to be pipsqueak numbers compared to, to what's possible. And that's my thoughts. You know, we're trending in the right direction again. So many people get, they get caught up in the short term and it causes them to get emotional. And I think people, people make silly decisions, but again, zoom out, look at the big picture. You know, the image is clear as could be. We always like to talk about the adoption and the stuff that's actually happening behind the scenes. And I think people get themselves messed up and they get themselves hurt in the crypto markets because they either try to over complicate it or they're too zoomed in on what's happening right here, right now in the moment. And again, the big picture here is like, bet big on the crypto market success and bet long. And historically speaking, you know, that really has worked out whether you are betting big and long on bitcoin or maybe something else. You know, for the most part, crypto really has succeeded over the long term in terms of like, large scale, like the big picture. Right. The infrastructure of it. So that's my thoughts.
- [37:44]
TiVo
Yeah. And I think, I wish we could have go back in time. I know this is kind of a Bloomberg terminal type of data, but I'd love to see what this number was two and three years ago before the Bitcoin ETFs, because I, you know, I think we would both agree it would be much lower. So just to see kind of the, the leap to where it is today. And then you just compare the price action. You know, there, there's your, you know, market caps just flowing in. Money's flowing in. And again, if you just summarize the conversation we just had the last five minutes, it's all these big players and 401ks and people getting, you know, more, you know, acquainted with Bitcoin in the tradfi community and that 1% goes to 3 to 5% and then 0% for 401ks to just 1%. Like that's, those are the unlocks that start to get you towards that, you know, the 200, 300,000, you know, dollar per Bitcoin number that a lot of people are talking about. So it's, it's not, it's not crazy as it was, you know, maybe two years ago to be throwing out that numbers. Like where's the money going to come from? Where's, where's all this, you know, liquidity and market cap going to come from? So now, now you're starting to get again the answers. And bitcoin is at 100, you know, and 4,000, it's not at 50, it's not at 40 anymore when people were throwing out those numbers and sounding crazy. So the journey, the journey evolves, it seems fast, but it's also like again, I preach every week. Come, come every week and listen. Join us. You know the, the chat on YouTube, I know a couple weeks ago was really active and live as we were approaching all time highs. Haven't haven't seen anybody too crazy in there today, but we still have people watching and coming here every week is how you kind of ride that journey where, you know, we say zoom out a lot but if you're here every week learning and staying up to date, you're kind of following this storyline so it doesn't seem as crazy. And when you wake up one day and bitcoin is at an all time high, you, you, you know, I know a lot of my friends and I'm sure yours is too, Brandon, they just go, oh, I, I missed out. I know we, we talked about on the podcast, I think yesterday with one of our guests was, you know, I missed out on bitcoin. It's like they said that at 50, now they're saying it again at 100. So it's like it's just because they're there and it's new, it's, it's a new, you know, it's not new to us, but it's a newer technology. And so people, yeah, people that don't dive in and learn it, it's just kind of passing them by even though there's plenty of time to come in and learn. So that's why we do this every week.
- [40:16]
Brendan
Spot on, man. Well, let's continue on this theme because I saw that both Poland and Japan recently elected pro bitcoin presidents. And this has been a growing theme here in the world as there has been a lot of pro bitcoin politicians coming into government, not just here in the US but around the world. You know, we've started to see countries all over the place show their enthusiasm and excitement for bitcoin and blockchain technology as a whole. And adoption here is back on the rise. So this is a big deal. You know, I think that both of these could play, you know, be bigger players in the market overall, just allow people to have adoption. I think the more adopted and the more accepted that something is on a global scale, the more that that helps snowball true adoption. Right. Because imagine, you know, if everyone thinks that something is okay and cool and normal, then the more likely that, you know, companies are to invest in it and back in it and get their hands on it. And same with like just the average day mom and pop investor. Like, it just helps bring people a lot more security. If half the countries around the world are all okay in adopting this thing, then that really does delete the argument of like, is this thing safe?
- [41:36]
Unknown
Safe?
- [41:36]
Brendan
Is it just fake money? Is it going to disappear a year from now? Right. I still talk to people who believe that. They say, I think this thing's a scam, it's going to go to zero. It's. And I think that those arguments have to go away as this becomes more and more secure. Right. So it's a big deal. You know, we have major politicians around the world continuing to adopt this. It's happening on a global scale, not just here in the States. And I think that that's important to understand. Now one of the things that we want to start closing out here with is the fear and greed index. We always like to come back, return to this. And what we've seen is that this is kind of teetering on that line of neutrality. So I'm going to throw this up on the screen and we can see it. The coin market cap Fear and greed index is just barely in the neutral territory. You can see it happening right here. Here, right. So we're just barely in the neutral territory. We are coming out of the greed just not too long ago. And when we go to the alternative fear and greed index, this is just a little bit higher slightly in the area of greed. And you know, TiVo, I don't know, I'm sure you remember this, but we talked about this on February 27th when this was at a 10 and we said if we zoom out historically that has marked the bottoming point for, for this you know, maybe not the exact bottoming point in terms of price, but we said a 10 on the fear and greed index is a bottom signal like no other. And you know, so far that has played out. And so we're coming back off these highs. You know, we look at the last month or so, we weren't anywhere in like extreme fear or extreme greed. Excuse me, at 78, that wasn't anything too insane. But we're kind of coming back into this neutral territory, maybe slightly greedy. And that kind of feeds into the topic of what we were saying up here is like, hey, you know, we're at a much more realistic price. We're not at the all time highs anymore. Is there a little bit of room for downside kind of coinciding with the fact that we're slightly greedy, maybe neutral right now? Yeah, you know, it is possible for a retracement. We're not massively oversold anymore. We're definitely not deeply overbought either. But we're coming back down to a point of neutrality. And again, I think that that makes investors a little bit more willing to deploy new capital. So the crypto market, not at a bad spot, but coming back into a point that is a bit more neutral. So I do think that the buyers, you know, the lower we get, I think the more comfortable the buyers get. And that's kind of the way that I am viewing this.
- [44:17]
TiVo
Yeah, I mean I remember that just that week and couple weeks where we're making, making content during the volatility and bringing up the numbers of the fear and greed index and basically, you know, I know we, we threw out the classic this isn't personal financial advice, but this is where, you know, this is where we'll be buying bitcoin type of thing. So you know, hopefully people made their own decisions and you know, bought some of the dip. But yeah, I mean the fear. And we did the stock market fear and greed index as well. I don't know if you remember that we brought up the stock market fear and greed index that, that hit a low that it hasn't hit since like Covid and the great financial crisis. And then obviously, you know, Monday morning quarterback a great buy as well. So it was a fire sale. And, and if you know, you kind of listen again every week you kind of had a, what would you call that, a support circle here. I know this, this show me and you, this is my support circle with everybody. You know, when, when stuff's going crazy like that, you can kind of get in, you know, a Psychological headspace and hopefully you don't make wrong or rash decisions. But I love coming, talking every week and talking through stuff and yeah, not, it's not all the time volatility to the up or downside kind of like this week. But it's always good to go back and kind of review your trades and why you made them and, and it's a great, I thought it was a great time to pull up this chart because. Yeah, I mean, talk about a bottom tick. We, we, we talked about it and I know individually we, we bought it as well kind of on our own. So, you know, a great, a great metric to have in your, your, your toolkit when planning your trades.
- [45:57]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean we, we put our money where our mouth is. You know, we come on here, we share the data and we trade the data just like we share it. So we present it all completely for free on these crypto rundown episodes. And then again, we put our money where our mouth is. So we were talking about it down there. I know Tiva, me and you were both doing some buy in. We were doing some trades. We were talking about how we, we caught some good ones down there. And so, you know, there's a time to be greedy. There's a time to be fearful. There's a time to kind of just sit on your hands and you know, when opportunities present themselves, we do like to jump. So, you know, we say that because there's a lot of people who get on here. They talk a lot and then they don't do anything. You know, they barely own crypto. They're not doing anything, they're not making calls and plays. But we're here, we're reporting on it and we put our money where our mouth is. So for sure.
- [46:49]
TiVo
Speaking of somebody that doesn't always use data to make safe, safe risk adjusted trades, James Wynn, a Twitter trader personality. Would you call him that? Anything else?
- [47:07]
Brendan
Yeah, I was gonna, yeah, we'll skip what I was gonna say about him.
- [47:13]
TiVo
Okay. I mean the guy, I mean, I think he's a self proclaimed dgen. Over the weekend, this guy James Wynn kind of was started to go viral on Crypto X here for some wild, wild long, full of leverage, you know, tens of millions, if not a hundred million dollars of long. And, and it was up and down and people, people were chasing him to see where his liquidation points are. And then at some point, I believe he did get liquidated for like $25 million. But it was just, we thought it'd be a fun, a fun one. To end on kind of how we always talk about, you know, risk adjusted and don't always use leverage, you know, all the time and be safe out there. You know, there's a lot of degens out there. So, you know, this is one guy that likes to do it in a very public way, which can obviously lead you to celebrate very publicly or. Or take the L very publicly. And I think, I think he got caught up in an L. Yeah, he.
- [48:12]
Brendan
He did. And it's like you said, this guy's been going viral on Twitter, just making absolutely crazy plays, you know, playing with 30, 40, 50x leverage on Bitcoin and I think Ethereum or Solana and just all sorts of stuff. And he was making a lot. Hey, a lot. And just going crazy.
- [48:30]
TiVo
I'll say this, I'll say this. You got to. You got to respect the man in the arena. Somebody that puts himself publicly out there. And again, I don't know if we know These trades are 100 true or not, to the point where, you know, but. But he public or he publishes a lot of different stuff. But you have to, you have to, you have to respect the man in, in the arena. So shout out to James. And you know, when you go down like that, I know he's had a lot of wins too, that he, that he says. So it's. It's definitely entertaining.
- [49:03]
Brendan
Yeah, definitely don't want to beat him up. Mad respect. You know, again, me and TiVo here, we're traders, and the last thing you want is after liquidation point to someone come in and beat you up and put you down. And he was trying along the crypto space. So I'm all here for that. You know, he's trying to, trying to make it here in the crypto, and you got to respect it. So, you know, hopefully we see him back at it again at a future point. We want to see him go along. We'd much rather have people like James Wynn out there betting on the crypto market, doing well and going up than people that are coming in here and shorting it with an equal amount of money. So James would love to see you back here. Who knows? Maybe we can. James, if you listen to this, come on the show, we'll bring you.
- [49:44]
TiVo
Yeah, that'd be great. Become one of our famous friends of the program, as they say.
- [49:50]
Brendan
Yeah, awesome. Well, hey, everyone, thank you so much for tuning in here today. This has been another great episode of the crypto rundown. Quick little reminder here. You know, if you're listening to these quick little reminder that we do these completely for free. So if you like the content that we have, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. We put these out every single week on Wednesday morning and we got a lot more to come. So if you want to stay informed, we believe that this is going to be the best place to do it. You can also check out some of the links in the description down below and all of our other profiles as well. So if you're listening on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, check us out on YouTube at the Crypto Crypto 101 podcast and we'll see all of you at the same time, same place next week.
- [50:51]
Unknown
Hi Zoe Saldana. Welcome to T Mobile. Here's your new iPhone 16 Pro on us.
- [50:55]
Thanks. And here's my old phone to trade in.
- [50:57]
You don't need a trade in. When you switch to T Mobile, we'll give you a new iPhone 16 Pro. Plus we'll help you pay off your old Phone up to 800 bucks and you still get to keep it.
- [51:06]
There's always a trade in.
- [51:07]
Not right now. @ T Mobile.
- [51:09]
I feel like I have to give you something in return for karma.
- [51:11]
That's okay.
- [51:12]
I don't really have much in my purse. Oh, let's see. Hand sanitizer. It's lavender.
- [51:16]
I'm good. Seriously.
- [51:18]
Let me check this pocket. Oh, mints.
- [51:21]
Really, I'm fine.
- [51:22]
Oh, I have raisins. I'm a mom. Wait, wait one sec. I've got cupcakes in the car.
- [51:26]
It's our best iPhone offer ever. Switch to T Mobile. Get get a new iPhone 16 Pro with Apple intelligence on us. No trade in needed. We'll even pay off your phone up to 800 bucks with 24 monthly bill credits.
- [51:38]
TiVo
New line $100 plus a month on experience beyond finance agreement $999.99 and qualifying.
- [51:43]
Brendan
Ported for well qualified plus tax and $10 connection charge.
- [51:45]
TiVo
Pay off via virtual prepaid card. Allow 15 days credits end and balance.
- [51:48]
Brendan
Due if you pay off earlier.
- [51:49]
Unknown
Cancel see t mobile.com does it ever feel like you're a marketing professional just speaking into the void? Well, with LinkedIn ads you can know you're reaching the right decision makers. You can even target buyers by job title, industry company seniority skills. Wait, did I say job title yet? Get started today and see how you can avoid the void and reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. We'll even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign. Get started at LinkedIn.com results. Terms and conditions apply.
- [52:24]
Lowe's knows you want the best for dad this Father's Day. Help him take on any project with big deals on DeWalt right now. Get a free XR8amp hour battery when you buy select DeWalt tools. That's not all. Get up to two free select tools when you buy a select DeWalt 20 volt max battery kit. Maximum initial battery voltage measured without a workload is 20 volts. Nominal voltage is 18.