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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin Whales are BUYING BTC, XRPs Legal Win, & Fed Meeting Outlook
00:54:42
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- [00:00]
Bryce
Foreign. Welcome back, everyone, to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the world of cryptocurrency, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. We got another action packed episode in store for all of you today. Not only is the crypto market squeezing, but we are seeing secret communities of whales. Some secret, some very public, but we're seeing a lot of whales come in here and buy bitcoin by the hundreds, not hundreds of dollars, by the hundreds and thousands of bitcoin. Now what this means is that there is hundreds of millions, in fact billions of dollars which is being bought up by these whales. We want to break down everything that's happening behind the scenes that you need to know about. There's also a huge institutional shift that's happening at the moment where according to recent reports, 83% of institutions are planning to add to their crypto allocations and increase them. And up to 75% of institutions could be using DeFi in the next two years. On top of this, we're seeing a big shift in regulatory policies. Big cases like the SEC case has been dropped. And also the way that crypto is looked at for financial firms looks like it's going to change in a very, very positive way. Now we have to talk about this. And of course there's a whole lot more. We have new state level bitcoin adoption that we got to talk about and we even have a couple of funny stories sprinkled in here as well to give you a little bit of laugh about what's happening here in the crypto community. So if that does sound interesting, all we ask is that you hit the like button.
- [01:45]
TiVo
Yes.
- [01:45]
Bryce
Hit the subscribe button. And if you really like the content, then go down to that link in the description down below. Click on some of those links. We got a really great community that you can be a part of. And of course, check us out on YouTube. We're going to be sharing all sorts of different news articles and charts and different kinds of visual images that you're going to want to look at. And you're not going to be able to see them unless you're watching this on YouTube. So if you just want to hear the audio version, that's fine. We're going to be doing our best to explain everything. But if you want to see all of the images and articles and charts that we're talking about, then you got to get, then you got to go over to our YouTube, which is the crypto one on one podcast over there. But with that being said, everyone, welcome back. It's good to have all of you here. We do this every single week so that you all can stay updated. And again, you don't have to spend all this time sifting through what's good, what's bad, all the noise, because there is a lot going on and this is going to be a really, really big episode because we are at FOMC Day where we get to finally hear from Jerome Powell about what he wants to do with the Fed. Are they going to be more hawkish? Are they going to be more dovish? Well, that's just another talking point that we have to go over here today. TiVo. So TiVo, I'm feeling excited, I'm feeling pretty good. I'm liking what we're seeing here in the markets. How are you feeling?
- [03:07]
TiVo
Yeah, man, feeling, feeling good. I think, like you just said, the FOMC Day kind of tease it up for one of those. We were calling it like the triangle of uncertainty between tariffs and FMOC and price action and inflation. So you'll get to hear from Jerome Powell today. I think the market as a whole, the consensus from the, you know, the cutting market is saying that there's going to be a hold today. But it as, as interesting as it sounds, it's kind of just how he talks, right? It's how does he speak? Even though there's not going to be a cut today, all eyes are, all ears are on Jerome Powell and how is he going to sound? Is he going to be dovish? Is he going to be, you know, worried about inflation? Kind of like back. Me and you both remember the December, the December press conference where he nuked the market saying like, well, if we have to cut, we'll cut. I'm sorry, if we have to raise, we'll raise. And that sent markets into a tizzy. So it's literally, you know, for about 20, 30 minutes, he has a press conference and the market just bounces around on every word that this guy says. And, you know, agree with that or not, that's just, that's just the way it is. So it's a big day today. I personally, not expecting too much. I think he'll, he'll give the markets like a little bit of a backstop. I don't think he'll nuke it, but I also don't think he's going to give some, you know, green light to, you know, send the market sky high. So kind of, kind of looking for a non event through my eyes. But you know, that's my opinion. We'll see what happens today. Any breaking news, maybe I'll try and put out another episode later this week with, you know, another analyst because I know you're not, you're going to be busy with some other stuff but you know, as long as it's kind of, you know, business as usual, we can, we can recap it next week when you get back. Have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared tried? With Plus500 futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity. You'll be able to trade in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as $100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gas and much more. Explore equity indices like Energy, Metals, Forex and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with +500. With over 20 years of experience, +500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us. +500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. And this is not personal financial advice. Plus 500, it's trading with a plus.
- [05:49]
Bryce
Yeah, yeah, I mean, sounds like a plan, man. And let's kick things off on the charts, right? I mean that's what we're seeing a bit of a squeeze on as I referenced towards the beginning here. And we are, you know, bitcoin's getting a squeeze, but there's some altcoins that are acting as major winners today. Spoiler alert. XRP is leading the charge on some really positive news. So we'll throw up that chart as well as well here. But let's kick things off with bitcoin. Let's just look at what's happening on the squeeze before we get into the news, before we get into all these articles and everything else that's going on. Let's just see what's happening with the actual price action of bitcoin because this is what that squeeze looks like. And if we actually just zoom in over here on what's happening. I mean we've had these huge swings up and down from 100k down to 77k, back up to 95, you know, back down to 81, then back up to 93 and just back and forth. And some of these moves are, you know, more than 20% down, then more than 20% up and back and forth. And that's a lot of volatility that's with no leverage. So, you know, this is quite the volatile time. But what we've seen here in recent days is that bitcoin has been squeezing just a bit as it has been getting close to this 220 day moving averages. The blue is the 20 day, the yellow is the 200 day. And as we have been breaking down and coming back into this level, we've started to see that we've really been narrowing down on the range that bitcoin has been inside of. Right. You know, we've gone from these huge, you know, $20,000 swings, 20% moves to really just being stuck in about a $2,000 range over here on bitcoin. And so instead of moving, you know, 20% up and down, we're moving like 2 to 3% up and down. And a lot of this has to do with where we're at. Well, previously we were using the 200 day moving average as a support. Here we are closing our daily candles above it. We are bouncing off this level to the upside, bouncing off this level, shooting to the upside. Well, now we are below the 200 day moving average and we've been testing this as a little bit of a resistance for just over a week now. So I think for everyone watching bitcoin, saying, hey, why are things, you know, getting tight? Why aren't we doing a lot? Well, I think there's a couple of reasons. Number one, we have two big resistance points overhead. The 20 day moving average, which ever since the breakdown back at the beginning of February, this has been a resistance, as we can see here, in here, in here, in here. And we just kind of reject off this, this blue line every time that we have tapped it for about the last month and a half. Well, now that the 200 day moving average is broken, you know, this is a former support area that should turn into a form of resistance. In fact, that's why we're already seeing us really struggle at this level. So two areas of resistance to note here on bitcoin moving forward. If we can break out here again, there is a squeeze happening. If we can break out, I think we are going to see pressure unwind which could drive Price in a pretty volatile manner in either the up or the down direction. Now, if we can break out to the upside here and maybe clear 85, then I think bitcoin has room to go back up to around 92. This is where we've seen bitcoin have some resistance in the past. We've seen a little trend of lower highs and I think we could work our way back up towards this 92k area. If we're going to break down, then I think we have a couple of areas to watch out for. But the real one that I'm targeting is around the low $70,000 range on Bitcoin and that's going to be where we start hitting this previous all time high and this previous consolidation zone down here. So that'd be my target over there. And so what this means is that, you know, we theoretically have potential for about a 10% move in either direction. Either a 10% up or a 10% down. Roughly speaking, something that I would say is possible on bitcoin. And I do believe that one of the catalysts that could lead us out of the squeeze is probably that FOMC event that we're having today. So again, maybe it doesn't happen like the moment that that goes off, but I do think that this FOMC event is going to be the initial catalyst to kind of push us out of this squeeze, push us out of this consolidation range. And so I am watching the charts pretty closely over here on bitcoin, but we've really just been hanging around 84k for the last, you know, maybe like week or so, week and a half and we haven't been doing anything too crazy. I do see volatility coming back into the market here and I think that we're going to kind of just continue to get some choppy price action as everything is, is figuring itself out. You know, especially on the TRADFI side, there has been all sorts of of catalysts that have been affecting the risk markets and we've talked about that quite a bit on our previous, previous episodes. So I don't want to, you know, beat a dead horse and keep talking about tariffs and the Fed and, you know, wars that are going on and all these other FUD factors that we have working in the background and just kind of the collateral damage effect that they have on the crypto markets. So over here, you know, again, crypto markets at a pretty big area of resistance. We'll see what happens. I'm hoping that we can break this squeeze to the upside that'd be a great thing to see. However, if we are going to kind of continue this short term downtrend that we have, I would be looking for just a little bit lower. And you know, this is that ideal zone, you know, maybe the mid-60s, high-70s is an area where a lot of people are watching out for bitcoin over here saying, hey, we think that bitcoin is going to be at a fire sale like price. We think that we can have this Covid like recovery. However, you know, maybe we do need to get into this previous consolidation range before we, we trigger that. And so again, it's not a certainty, but it is a possibility and one that we are keeping a close eye on over here. Now the other big factor that I have seen is that, you know, there's a lot of buyers over here and we've talked about this. There's a bunch of whales that have been buying, for example, you know, Meta Planet, Meta Planet and MicroStrategy have been having some really big buy orders. I think MicroStrategy came in with around 130 bitcoin in terms of their buy order. So I think that's about 10, $10 million or something like that. And maybe we can, we can fact check me on that TiVo, but MicroStrategy came in and bought around 130 Bitcoin. Then Meta Planet is a company in Tokyo who essentially has an identical plan or company to micro strategy. They're just, you know, based in Japan instead of the US So both of them have the exact same idea, near identical practices. Their, their goal is to just acquire as much bitcoin as possible. So MicroStrategy came in here, bought 130 Bitcoin. Meta Planet said we're going to one up you, we're going to buy 150 Bitcoin. And both of those whales are cashing in with an average price right around 82 to 83k. On top of this, we saw that the US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their largest daily net inflows in about six weeks, equating to almost $300 million on this single day. And this is the article that was referencing that. So there's big money, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars that are flowing into the ETFs. Millions and millions of dollars, tens of millions of dollars which are being bought up by some of these whales. And this is pushing the price of bitcoin up. Now this has kind of been a secret battle against some giant short position that we're going to talk about towards the end of the episode, because it's actually, I find it kind of funny, but there's been this war against this giant whale who's been wanting to push the price of bitcoin down. But we'll talk a little bit more on that in just a bit. So, again, what's happening here is just all of these people buying millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars into bitcoin at the low 80, high $70,000 range. And I think what that's saying is that they are very, very comfortable buying over here because they think, hey, maybe it's a month from now, maybe it's a year from now, we're going to be a whole heck of a lot higher. And that's what they believe, or else they want to be buying over here in the first place. Now, the last thing that I want to talk about is a little bit of just the altcoin market, because while it has been getting, you know, a little bit hammered over here, altcoins are green on the day, and there's one clear winner out there, and you guessed it, it's XRP. XRP is up over 12% on the day. It looks like the official end has come for their SEC lawsuit. This has been something that people have been waiting for for a long time. We've seen a lot of other lawsuits get dropped. In fact, I think it was just in our previous week's episode, we were talking about how the Uni Swap, the Yuga Labs, the. I think it was OpenSea. You know, all these other lawsuits have been dropped across the board. The Coinbase one, the Robinhood one, and the one that wasn't on that list was xrp. And sure enough, here we are about a week later, and XRP is now standing victorious over the sec. They're not being bogged down by Gary Gensler anymore. And the token price is doing quite well. Now, again, there's a lot of people out there who said, hey, when this case ends, TiVo, it's going to go up 100%, 1,000%, 10,000, thousand percent when this. And I'm exaggerating a little bit, but I've seen a lot of talk out there. And now the case is over and they're up 12%, which is good. Again, they're probably one of the top performing cryptos on the day, if not the top performing, at least on my watch, on my watch list, they're the top performing. But, you know, a little bit, or I would say a lot of this was actually Priced in. People knew that under the new administration, this was not something that was going to last too much longer. You know, very, very pro crypto administration. Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of xrp, was even at the White House crypto summit. So I don't think this should come as a big surprise, right? You know, this guy's literally been, you know, speaking with the new administration, attending the crypto summits that they have. Like, it's not a huge shock that, like, hey, they won their case during the XRP or they won their case during or against the sec. And yeah, I mean, good news nonetheless. And so now we have a big upside catalyst here. And, you know, really this, this remains to be one of the better performers in the altcoin space. And hopefully this isn't one of those sell the news events. I think it's a great thing long term for all cryptos because it sets a huge precedent that, you know, hey, things are changing. The SEC is not going to be weaponized anymore. It's the end of Operation Choke 2.0. And I think all altcoins, we're just again mentioning XRP this week because it's having a nice move and it won that case. But you know, really all altcoins are going to be positively impacted by this kind of case win. So we, we love to see it. I don't want to talk too much more about it, but there have been some other good catalysts that have come, all that have come our way. And this has been a cool one. TiVo, and I want to get your thoughts on this because this is a report that came out from Coinbase actually, And they said 83% of institutions are planning to up their crypto allocations in 2025. And up to 75% of institutions could be actively using DEFI platforms in the next two years. So again, I want to hand it over to you, but the way that I look at this is saying not only are we seeing like positive, you know, catalysts, right? You know, we're getting the SEC dropping the ripple case. We're seeing prices kind of go back on the rise. We're seeing really, really big buy orders from these whales, we're seeing big inflows come back into the ETFs, but we're also seeing that these institutional players are saying, hey, we want to get plugged into DeFi and we want to up our crypto allocations. And I kind of see all of this working together in a really positive way.
- [18:00]
TiVo
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. And I Think this article actually works perfectly in tandem with the stat you showed around the ETF inflows. Because if you kind of recall when the bitcoin ETF dropped, you know, over a year ago now, that was a, at least price action wise, it was a sell the news event, right? Like it happened, it launched, it went live and bitcoin took a pretty hefty dip and you know, easily the buying opportunity of the last year to get on board that. But now, and then, and then that happened. But then over the course of three months and six months you saw inflows, inflows, steady inflows. And then, you know, the price kept, you know, whether it was, I remember the assassination attempt, the markets took a little bit of a bite. The Japan Nakai trade in August, the markets dumped, plus just the fear around the election. You know, we were in that 50, what, 56 to 70 range until we broke that. And that was your accumulation zone. And so while price didn't, you know, skyrocket during this accumulation phase by the ETFs by the end of it, if you bought in that first year before the election, you were profitable. Obviously we hit all time highs after. So every purchase of bitcoin in history is profitable at some point, you know, last year and this year. But the, I guess the thought is these ETFs set records. So we were setting records for the most successful ETF launch in history, multiple ones for different Bitcoin ETFs. But meanwhile you didn't see the price skyrocketing straight up to all time highs all year while we were still setting this record. So I think that's a good thing to look back on and remember and be like, okay, the big dogs were accumulating, you know, during the price action maybe in the range before it broke out. And then obviously there is a huge dump. And you can't not acknowledge that the ETFs had a ton of outflows during this last, you know, market downturn along with Tesla being down 50%, along with Nvidia being down 25%. So it, you know, it was just caught up in that market trend. But yeah, I'm always down to check the inflows of the etf. And I think that if you see the consistency of those inflows, even if it's a choppy price action, you know, we know, we know who's buying and it's, it's, it's the, you know, the big fish in the Trad 5 pond I think are going to keep coming over more and more. So, yeah, I think, I think if anything, it's exciting. And yeah, again, just like you said on the charts, you know, we, we don't know exactly where the price is going to be next week or next month, but we're still in an uptrend. So, you know, it's a good thing to monitor and, and you want to be, you know, you want to be where the big money goes. So I think, you know, bitcoin offers that opportunity.
- [20:44]
Bryce
Yeah. And I mean, speaking of big money, we got a big event today that's going to impact the big money, which is fomc. This is where the Fed chair, Jerome Powell is going to be coming out. We like to call him Jay Powell. He's coming out here and he's going to be talking about what he wants to do with rates. Now, this is a big deal. You know, people have mixed opinions on this. I was looking at the poly market percentages of, like, what the real chances of a rate cut happening are. And I like polymarket because what this does is it gives us pretty good insights. You know, they're one of the most accurate ways to see how likely something is to, to go on. We saw this even with the election, you know, they ran some of the best numbers on that in terms of like, who is going to win and who is going to win what state and all this stuff. And they're saying, hey, there's a 99% chance that nothing happens today in FOMC, that we get no change in rates, we don't get a hike, we don't get a cut, we get nothing, just no change. And I would agree with that. I don't really see too much happening. Jerome Powell has been pretty steady on his stance of being like, you know, hey, this is what we want to do. And he's been kind of fighting Trump and the administration on like, hey, they really want to cut rates. He's like, hey, we're just going to do our own thing now. We're starting to see a little bit of hardball come in here with the markets tanking. So it'll be interesting to hear what he has to say and maybe how his views could be pivoting. And I think that's what people are going to be listening into or listening for when it comes to this FOMC meeting today. Who is going to pivot first? Is it the administration, the new administration under Trump, or is it the Fed under Jerome Powell? Are they going to start to become more dovish now that the markets are Tanking or are they going to hold steady to what they've been saying for the past couple FOMCs, which is, hey, you know, we don't want to cut rates that much. And they've been really dovish for the past couple of years. We've seen him be much more hawkish in terms of his approach. Right. You know, just looking at. He always underperforms. Right. We say, oh, we're going to do all these rates and in recent years it's been less. Last year was a great example of this with us getting I think what, half as many rate cuts as we expected and this year pricing in only two rate cuts. People are hoping to see maybe at least three or four. But again we'll have to see here today who pivots first. And you know, maybe how this could positively impact the crypto market because people have been wanting rate cuts and if there's talks that he is becoming more dovish and that we could be getting more than two rate cuts, who knows? The markets could positively respond.
- [23:26]
TiVo
Yeah, and I think the, again, it's been a wild day to day news flow, especially with the tariff conversation of just, you know, whether it's, you know, X or the news from the Oval Office, it's been hard to track honestly. But like as we talked about, you know, his, you know, the administration's goal is to get the 10 year down because they want to refinance debt and the average person looks at the 10 year to how they can, you know, afford a house or buy their first house with mortgage rates. So that's, that is the goal and I think at least knock on wood, my desk is made of wood here. We haven't, we haven't really heard any tariff stuff the end of last week and the start of this week, which again, purely an opinion on my end, in my opinion might, might mean that the conversations are starting and their conversations are going in a good way because you haven't heard anything about, you know, Canada, Mexico, whatever, tariff, I call it tariff bashing. The tariff bashing has stopped for I don't know, not even a week probably, but five days. So I, I think, and I hope that that means that the conversations are underway and the, you know, the loud, you know, egregious tweets and all this that you know, are one sided obviously towards, you know, what America wants or what the administration wants maybe is a better way to phrase it is, is something that's going to lead to, you know, a sane and you know, legit negotiation. So hopefully those are underway. And if that gets announced that those are cleared up and there's new trade agreements that both sides agree to, that'll be pressure lifted off the market as well. So again, that. That triangle of uncertainty that we've talked about, when, when those things start to move in a positive direction, that's gonna alleviate the pressure on the market, I believe. So, you know, all stuff to, to, you know, keep in mind and keep track of, even though it's a little politically centered and not the most fun thing to talk about as we like to, you know, be in the markets and the charts. It's just something that you have to, you know, you have to be watching right now.
- [25:26]
Bryce
Yeah. Cannot agree anymore. And, you know, one of the big areas of interest has been altcoins. You know, what is, what is the altcoin market doing here? Right. People have been a little bit frustrated. They've been trying to figure out what's going on. And I saw this article, I'm gonna go ahead and throw it up on the screen here for everyone that's watching. But I saw this article and give me a sec. It's just taking a little bit of extra time to load. But it was saying, like, hey, you know, people are buying bitcoin. We're seeing bitcoin ETF inflows increase. We're seeing all this stuff happen. Right. You know, bitcoin's getting a lot of attention, but, like, a lot of altcoins are just waffling. You know, they're not doing a lot, they're not increasing a lot. And I think that creates a really good conversation of like, what is the current state of, of altcoins? And it doesn't look like this link's going to work, but yeah, it's just an article talking about exactly that. You know, what is the current state of altcoins? And I just wanted to have a little, a little bit of a back and forth here with you, TiVo. Just talking about, like, where do altcoins stand in the current state of the market? Because my thoughts are, you know, hey, altcoins are an awesome investment vehicle. And the thing about them is that they have a time and a place. You do not want to be buying altcoins at the top. Right. Because they just have so much downside potential. We see that on pullbacks. You know, on a pullback, they can go back 40, 50% in a, in a, you know, downtrend, in a reversal, they can go back 70, 80, 90%. And so, you know, altcoins are this awesome tool where they have a ton of volatility. Just as they can move down 70 to 80%, they can move up 4, 5, 6, 700%, you know, some more, some less. And I think that they have to be used at the right times of the market. And also you have to take profits. You know, that's one of the biggest faults that people have is that they do not take profits on their altcoin holdings. They hold them for forever as if they are bitcoin. And I do think that profit taking on altcoins needs to be something that that happens. I think it's a necessary part of the market cycle, is like, hey, you go up 200%, 500%, 1,000%, shave some off the table. And I'm not giving anyone financial advice, but I do see a lot of people go wrong there. And, you know, in recent months, maybe not the most ideal time. I know, you know, I've been talking to some of the people in our community saying, hey, I'm stepping back from altcoins. I'm not doing as much buying. I'm thinning out. I'm focusing more on bitcoin here. And that strategy has helped me a lot. I think now we're starting to finally get back to a point where altcoins are looking a whole lot more interesting. Why? Well, because a lot of these altcoins are down a lot from their highs. You know, we look at what bitcoin is or what Solana has done. You know, Solana is down 62% just in the last three months. We look at, like Avalanche, another very popular one. This one's down about 70% in the last three or so months. We look at another one like Chain Link. You know, this thing's down almost 55% in the last couple months. Ondo, you know, is down about 60% in the last couple of months. I mean, even Sui, which was a top performer, is down about 55% in the last couple of months. So a lot of these altcoins are down, you know, 40, 50, 60, 70%. And I think now that whole risk versus reward idea makes a whole lot more sense. You know, we're not buying it at the high. We're buying it at this heavily discounted price. And I think now, again, I'm not saying the bottoms in, but what I am saying is that the opportunity for upside is a whole lot more enticing now that we have seen a pullback. And I think patience is a virtue. Just in the same way that take profit or profit taking is really, really important.
- [29:13]
TiVo
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- [30:19]
C
Wow.
- [30:20]
TiVo
What's up?
- [30:21]
Bryce
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- [30:49]
D
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- [31:48]
Bryce
But you know I'm looking at the Altcoin market here. And again, I think that it has a time and a place. I love altcoin trading. I've been altcoin trading since like 2017. And the number one lesson that I could say that has helped me the most is again, do not chase the runs, do not buy at the tops. Wait for the pullbacks, and finally take profits. That is the number one area where I see people go wrong. Because I truly do believe that anyone can make money in the crypto market. And buying at a good price and getting in at a good price is not the hard part. That's not where people go wrong. Anyone can do, you know, a 2, a 3, a 4, a 5x in the crypto markets. In fact, most people do. However, what most people don't do is that they buy at the good price and then they just don't take profits at the right time. They don't take profits, you know, maybe even at all. And then they end up riding things into the ground and they lose a lot of their profits. So I know that was a little bit of a rant, but that's where I view the current state of the altcoin market. Again, we see it go in waves. There's waves where altcoins are really hot and then they cool off, and that's really hot. And then it cools off and it's on, off, on, off. And it's at times where people get burned from the way down that they go, oh, that's it. I'm giving up on altcoins. When in reality, that's, you know, arguably the time that they should be adding or getting in and increasing exposure. And. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, that's the way that I view this. So I've seen a little bit of FUD about altcoins. You know, they're underperforming this and that. You know, let's not forget a couple of months ago, the run that altcoins had from like August, September up to December was just insane. I mean, altcoins were literally moving hundreds and hundreds of percent outperforming, you know, bitcoin depending on the altcoin. And they're going crazy now all of a sudden, you know, just like, we had like four months of up, now we might have three or four months of down, and people get all like, bent out of shape about it. So I don't know. I'm random Tebow, but I'll hang on.
- [33:47]
TiVo
No, no, you're right again, Never personal financial advice for any individuals. But we've all we've all been there where, you know, you buy something at the right price and yeah, 200, you get that Hunt 1x2x and you're like, oh, this is a winner, this is the one. And then you double down and that's at the top or near the top and then you round trip it. So yeah, I think that's why, you know, listening to show we're a team, we're a community, we're here to help you. Obviously we have, you know, the links below you can check out to join, you know, different tiers of our community, get different types of coaching and help or just, you know, as well check out our YouTube. I know we just launched a new tutorial you made for Coinbase, teaching about the new function of how to use the, you know, take profit and stop loss type of tools. So it's all out there. It's, it's, you know, it's a mental game, it's a strategy game and, and you know, you got to have, as Bryce said, as Bryce says, you gotta have your plan and trade your plan. Right. So, yeah, I think overall I agree with your sentiment. It's, it, it feels like everybody's giving up on, everybody's giving up on all coins, which was the opposite. Where bitcoin was rising throughout the year, hitting all time highs and everybody was like, here come altcoins, here come altcoins. Everybody's piling in, piling in with the momentum. And then it never, it never truly felt, at least in my opinion, never felt like it had that blow off top. But yeah, I don't know that that's, that's what makes a market at the end of the day. Right. And I guess it's, it's not always, it's not always going up where people are making bets and, and making money. There's, there's people that are, are taking some shorts and we had that the wild short position that we were all watching over the weekend on Sunday. You want to tee that up for us?
- [35:33]
Bryce
Yeah, this is a wild story. So in recent months there have been some very strange events where we can see on chain that people are taking these really long positions or these really big positions, long and short, right before significant news gets dropped. And so people are like, all right, someone's obviously insider trading this because people will go in with like millions or tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars on really high leverage, which is something that you just don't do. And they'll go in with, you know, again, millions and millions of dollars on high leverage. And then all of a sudden this news will come out and there'll be a massive amounts of profit. Well, people were getting like they were catching onto this and they're like, all right, this is strange. So what we saw is that I think it was over the weekend, someone created this $40 million bitcoin short at 40x leverage. And so this, or maybe it was $4 million. Anyway, it was like this giant short position. And then they kept adding to it and adding to it and adding to it. And people are like, what in the world is going on? To the point where it eventually got up to over $500 million at 40x leverage, which is insane. Insane. And what this, what this means is that, you know, they had a liquidation price of around, I think it was 85,500 bucks, something around there. So people were like, all right, we're tired of this. We're going to band together, we're going to liquidate this whale. And so people were trying to stop this guy out on his short position. So there's all these big content creators getting together saying, DM me if you're a seven figure investor. And then eventually it was like, hey, DM me if you're an eight figure or investor. We're not even taking seven figure. And we're all going to coordinate our buys. We're all going to do it at the same time. We're going to pump the price of bitcoin up and we're going to liquidate this guy. And so people kept trying to do this and it kept failing. And I think that's why we've seen this squeeze happening here on bitcoin is because this guy has just like, like, you know, half a billion dollars in a highly leveraged short position. And there's all these retail traders that are trying to liquidate them, like the Gamestop situation, and then they can't do it. And so he keeps doubling down, doubling down, tripling down, you know, quadrupling down, whatever. And the people keep trying to buy and it's this war and it feels like this guy has unlimited money and so he never ends up getting liquidated. In fact, he ends up going in the profit, like several million dollars. And then he just takes it off. Because I'm sure if you have that kind of money, you have to know what's going on here. I mean, everyone was talking about it. You have to know that the whole crypto community's coming after to liquidate you. And everyone kept saying, hey, he knows something. That we don't. This is an insider investor. Maybe it was. And then they caught on and they're like, okay, we actually need to like, not do this because it's, it's blatantly obvious. Who knows? We don't, we don't have any answers at the end of the day. But the long story short here is that this whale ended up taking this almost half a billion dollar short position, riding it for a couple million dollars in, in profit, and he ended with $4 million in profit. And again, I'm a trader, so my brain immediately goes, what is the risk versus reward ratio? You're risking half a billion dollars to make $4 million. That's an awful return on investment.
- [39:04]
TiVo
Think about it, think about it.
- [39:06]
Bryce
You risk 500 million to make 4 million. Like that's an atrocious return on investment for how much you're risking, especially when his liquidation price is so freaking close. So anyway, it was driving me a little bit nuts, but it was super, super entertaining nonetheless. And. Yeah, and now I know he has some new positions.
- [39:28]
TiVo
Yeah. So the, the, the final thing there, everybody's like, who is this guy's insider trading? You know, what, what does he know? And then he gets the $4 million in profit and he dumps it into Melania. Everybody was really confused with that one.
- [39:43]
Bryce
Yeah, it's like, it like begs the question, does this guy actually even know what he's doing?
- [39:47]
TiVo
Yeah. So people were, people were wondering if it was maybe something from that Ethereum hack that was converted into Bitcoin type of thing or I think Zach XBT was, was trying to investigate to see if he could find out who, who it was. But yeah, just classic, just a classic crypto story. Just had a little bit. Everything had the drama, the pageantry and the community all, all riled up. But yeah.
- [40:18]
Bryce
Well, I think what's going on with this, this, this Bo Hind story?
- [40:22]
TiVo
Yeah, so Bo Hines is the, he's on the council, the President's Council of Advisors on digital assets. So he's working with David Sachs and I know a whole, you know, a whole bunch of, you know, content and shown you videos of Howard Lutnick and who's the Commerce Secretary, and Scott Besson who's the Treasury Secretary who are now in charge of, are now in charge of having the ability to, to buy more bitcoin as long as it comes to no cost of the taxpayer. So, you know, I think originally after the crypto summit, along with macro figures, we saw, you know, some selloff. But I think as we said on this show, what else could you really ask for? You know, there's now a bitcoin strategic reserve and there's the ability to buy more. So this is one of the people who is, you know, going to be talking with the powers that be that have the ability to go and buy, buy more Bitcoin for the American strategic Bitcoin reserve. So, you know, whenever one of these clips comes out, I think it's important that we, we bring it up and take a listen. So this is about, this is about a minute. So let's take a look.
- [41:27]
E
Well, you know, we, we delivered on the President's promises that he made on the campaign trail. You know, the President was adamant about creating the sbr. We wanted to make sure that we did it right in a way that respected Bitcoin for being so unique and also gave credence to innovation and other spaces in the digital asset world. So, you know, for us here, we look at bitcoin, it's not a security, it's a commodity as intrinsic stored value. That's traditionally accepted. It has, as David likes to describe, the immaculate Conception. There's no issuer. And, you know, that's why, as you saw in the executive order, we compared this to digital gold. It's something that's imperative for the United States to have, retain, continue to build on. And I think it's worth pointing out that, you know, the way that this is constructed, we talked about ways of acquiring more Bitcoin in budget neutral ways that won't cost the taxpayer a dime. And what I like to say about this president, I think it's high time that our President started accumulating assets for the American people, which is what President Trump is doing, rather than taking it away. And I think that's one thing that we really wanted to make clear in this executive order. And we're looking forward to working with our partners at treasury and Secretary of Commerce in order to find those budget neutral ways in which we can acquire more. You know, I've been asked all the time, it's like, how much do you want? I said, well, that's like asking a country, how much gold do you want? Right? I mean, as much as we can get.
- [42:45]
TiVo
So there you go, you know, don't shoot the messenger type of thing. But that's somebody who's in the rooms and talking about, he mentioned there, you know, working with the Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary to come up with the plans for, you know, budget neutral, no cost, the taxpay payer bitcoin acquisition and again, I think it's one of those things where the headline, just like the ETF when it launched, we talked about that earlier in the show, you know, the headline comes out, maybe it's a sell the news or you don't think it's as impressive as it could or will be. And you know, again, who's to say that this will be. Maybe the US doesn't buy any additional bitcoin. We, we can't tell you that, nobody can. But it would be, I think, a shock to the markets if it was the other side of the ball where there's a robust plan that starts to get put into action of bitcoin acquisition and the bitcoin arms race is on.
- [43:37]
Bryce
Yeah, and I agree with that strategy. I think that doing it at no cost to the taxpayer is probably a good way of doing it because again, I might disagree with people on whether they should own bitcoin. I'm obviously going to be a little bit biased and saying, hey, I think the more we buy, the better. But in the same way, I don't think people should be forced to having their tax money go to something like that because everyone's going to agree a little bit differently on how they invest their money and what stuff goes towards. And so I think that, you know, just in the same way that people might do other kind of investments that I would look at and go, there's no chance that I would ever purchase something like that. You know, some people still think that way about bitcoin and again, we can disagree about that, but I don't think that they should be forced to spend their tax, their tax paying money on it. So I think doing it at no cost to the taxpayer is a very fair and reasonable thing. And yeah, I think it's respectable. But, you know, the big takeaway there is that, hey, we want to get our hands on more bitcoin. And if we can do that at cost to the taxpayer and do it in a more creative way, I think everyone's fair game for that.
- [44:44]
TiVo
Yeah. And here's, here's just a little graphic I started seeing this on the timeline this week of, you know, bitcoin by country in the top two are the US And China. So I think even before President Trump, I think it's interesting to note how much bitcoin the US Actually held. I know they sold a lot and, you know, it costed the, the U.S. you know, trillions. But, you know, same with China over the years. They're like, oh, we don't like bitcoin we don't want bitcoin. But for some, you know, somehow they. They both are the top two holders in the world with a massive amount of bitcoin. So, you know, one of those do as they say and, and. Or, sorry, do as they do and not as they say. But it would be interesting to hear a, A tone change. I mean, you've kind of already heard it from the US and if China follows and these two countries that have said they're not interested in bitcoin, but are also the top two holders now become interested in coin, could be an interesting storyline to follow along with possibly other countries and as we know, other states, because that's currently in talks. We've covered that on the show before and we have an update on one of the states as well. So you want to take that one, Brennan?
- [45:57]
Bryce
Yeah, the big update here is that North Carolina, actually, my home state, proposed a bill that would invest up to 10% of the state's funds, which is $950 million in Bitcoin. And so far we've seen, I think, over 32 states, and the number is probably higher than that now. But 32 states that have proposed some sort of crypto adoption plan, some sort of crypto reserve. Now, some are just bitcoin, some are bitcoin and altcoins, some are 2%, some are 10%. What we are seeing is a really, really big push. We've already seen it at a federal level. Now we're starting to see it happen at a state level. And I think this is a big deal because again, it adds to the demand here. And also I think it makes sense in terms of diversity. You know, we're not saying that it needs to be half or all or any of this. I think just, you know, having a portion, a percentage of a reserve in bitcoin, I think it makes sense just in the same way that we spread out our money between cash and bonds and, and metals and indices and, you know, stocks and all these other things. I think having a fraction of that represented in bitcoin or in crypto makes sense in the long term. You know, especially when we are looking at fighting inflation, when we're looking at raw diversity, when we're looking at different asset classes. For me, this is something that makes sense. Now, 10% is, I think, the highest I have seen. I think a lot of the other ones are closer to like 3 to 5%. And I think that's fair, saying, hey, if we have 2, 3, 5% of a reserve in, in bitcoin and we have that for even half of the states. I think eventually it'll become something that we do for all of the states inside the U.S. but again, what this does is it sets a standard, a global standard that, hey, this is going to be used as a reserve currency. And what that does is that has a ripple effects. Again, the federal level of adoption through, through a bitcoin reserve has ripple effects onto the state adoption. The state adoption has ripple effects outside the country. So then other countries are going to be looking at adopting some sort of a reserve or adoption strategy of Bitcoin. Then all of a sudden, institutions are going to be looking at it and saying, hey, how can we bring this onto our balance sheets? Maybe 1, 2, 5% in terms of exposure. And again, this is just rippling down. And what that does is it gets retail more excited and more interested in it at the end of the day. So, again, you know, this, this isn't something where it just happens. You're like, oh, that's cool. It really does impact the, the greater economic environment. And I think that's what we're going to see here is that just as this happens, and again, everyone wants instant gratification. We don't always get it. I think that this sets a really nice tone for the years to come. And we're not going to see this, this parabolic candle up to $500,000 tomorrow or up to $200,000 tomorrow. But I think with this kind of steady adoption and the waves that we are seeing, I think that we do get there eventually and it's just a matter of time. This stuff doesn't happen overnight. And, you know, people just have to be a little bit more patient. So, you know, again, we're going to chop around in the short term. We know that there's a lot going on, but when we zoom out and we look at this stuff, you know, again, I'm just, I'm not too worried about it. TiVo, you know, I DCA, I add, you know, I take profits here and there if I want to do some trading, but for the most part, I'm not buying the top. I wait for pullbacks, and then I accumulate on the dips. And I just, I don't overcomplicate the process.
- [49:41]
TiVo
No, I couldn't. Couldn't agree more. At the end, it's like the price action is obviously what, you know, people look at and feel the most. But that's what we do with the show. We try to bring you underneath the hood and give you, you Know, kind of some direction of, you know, where's the current going? Not necessarily the price action alone, but where's the current of the industry going? And you know, again, two years ago you couldn't wish for a better situation today if you even, even with price included. So you know, onward, onward and upward eventually. But I, I think it's, it's exciting. But let's end the show on a lighter note. The, some, some, some drama on the timeline from, from our friends over at Solana. So they, they dropped an ad and if you're not somebody who is familiar with the ad, I'm not gonna play it just because it's like 2 minutes and 30 seconds long. And it's one of those things I think you have to see not just here so we're not gonna play it, but the summary of it. It was a very like kind of politically motivated, you know, supposed to be comedic ad and I think it had some tones of comedy, but it was, it was just, it was kind of, just really one sided in, in kind of the current, I guess, crypto financial landscape of, of one side of the political spectrum. And in my opinion it was just too long. Like the idea of the setting was, it was, it was a therapist office and you know, this guy was kind of talking to his therapist about ideas to get better and you know, they were just kind of going back and forth. The problem was, I think not necessarily the content, but how long it drug on. It was, it was two, you know, two minutes and 40 seconds. The thing could have easily been 50 seconds to one minute. And then if that was the case, I think people would have kind of just watched it, liked it, laughed or not and moved on. But because it was so long and this is somebody who, you know, creates content for a living. And I've, I've shot commercials and I've, you know, have writing credits for, you know, a bunch of different stuff that's been nationally televised. So I feel like I have some expertise to, to talk about is like when you let people marinate in something for that long, you know, their opinions double and triple down. If it's a small segment and it goes by, it's like, oh, I either really didn't like that, I really did like it, but people will move on. And so people didn't like this ad and again, if you haven't seen it easily Google it or if you're on X, just type in Solana ad. It'll be the first thing that pops up. Take a look. But the most interesting Part of it was they ended up deleting it. So they posted it. It spread like wildfire. People like, yo, look at this thing. And it was a, it was a mix of the political message. Plus I thought it was just poorly made, especially on the length. And so they deleted it, which again, in the content game, you can't, you can't delete. You cannot delete. You got to stick by it because deleting does nothing. People already have copies and spread it more and more and more.
- [52:39]
Bryce
Yeah, it's already out there. And I, I agree. Again, we try to stay pretty neutral on all this stuff, but I thought it was, I thought it was funny, but you're right, they overkilled the joke. It's like the guy who makes a funny joke and everyone laughs and then he keeps going and going and going like, all right, dude, like, it was funny. We had a good laugh. And then he just like, won't let it go. He won't drop it. And that's how it felt. Is that they. Again, if it was like a quarter of the length, I think it would have hit, you know, they could have made that into it. And also it was, it's just weird that it was such a long ad. You just never see ads that long. It almost felt like it was like a YouTube video and.
- [53:17]
TiVo
Right.
- [53:17]
Bryce
Again, yeah, if they would have condensed it, they would have not overkilled the joke. I thought the actual, the framework of it, the structure of it, I thought it was funny and creative and it's not your typical ad. And that's how you get something to go viral in the first place, is you stand out. And so I think that they had the right idea, but it was executed the wrong way. And also, whenever you do anything that's like somewhat politically associated, you're immediately going to divide your user base. And I know that they're probably thinking, hey, the vast majority of, of cryptocurrency holders are going to be more right leaning just because of policy standards. Right. And so maybe that was their rationale behind it. But anytime you do anything that's like, like very clearly politically motivated, there's always going to be some sort of backlash from either side. Right? Either side, you're always going to have backlash. And. But yeah, I don't know, I thought, you know, in truth, I thought that the idea of it was actually quite funny, but they just executed it really, really poorly. So. And then the deletion, you're right, that's just like the final.
- [54:26]
TiVo
Yeah, you can't delete and, and here's another, here's another thing. And I, you know, I love content. The strategy of content of, you know, whether it's crypto or anything. It's like, that's not your lane. And I agree with you. Like, I thought the idea was unique. You're taking a risk. I love taking risks and putting stuff out there, but that's not your lane. Like Solana, like, we're not waiting for Solana to hit us in the face with some, you know, life changing ad that's gonna, you know, change our perspective or comedic view on, on life. Like, I don't think that's what it's from. And, and also because they have a history. So you post something like this, it's called the tweet graveyard. So we can go back and look at, you know, Solana's Twitter in 2020 and 2021 and they had a bunch of tweets on the other side of the fence.
- [55:08]
Bryce
Yeah.
- [55:09]
TiVo
You know, with this polarizing political thing. So it's like, that's not your lane. I think that's the biggest issue. And especially in technology, you have people on both sides like, yes, the crypto, you know, banditos are all hopping on the Trump train recently. But that's, that's not all of technology. You have a lot of people out in Silicon Valley that are still left and that's fine. And again, that's what makes our country great, is you can have these different views. But it just, it didn't hit. And again it was the length for me overall, it just, it didn't hit. But you can't delete. You got to stand by it. Once you post it, it, you can't delete it. So, you know. Yeah, that's all right. I think. I don't know you. I know you have your trading view chart. Could you add like just a little asterisk on one of your things or it's like the, the Solana ad and see if that marks maybe a local bottom of some sort.
- [55:59]
Bryce
Yeah, I'll add something in here. You know, maybe it is, maybe it is the local.
- [56:03]
TiVo
Yeah, that'd be funny. It'll be funny to check back in like three, six months at the end of the year and see where Salon is, prices and see if this was the, the local bottom of the year when, when the ad drops.
- [56:17]
Bryce
I'm making a note right now and I'm putting it on the chart. So if you want to get an update on that, you got to come back. We're going to be seeing if that is the bottom on Solana, this is like an inverse. You know, when we see like any crypto apps, like the Coinbase app is number one on the App Store, it's like, oh, the market is topped out. Well, this is the opposite where the crypto market is bottomed out because of an ad like this. So we're going to come back, we're going to check it out. We appreciate everyone coming in here watching. The full length of the episode is a little bit of a longer one, but there's a lot going on and of course we got to make sure that we cover everything. So again, thank you all for watching. If you want to join a really awesome crypto community, check out those links in the description down below. We got Crypt Nation where you can find thousands of like minded individuals talking about what they're seeing in the markets, interesting news events, recent developments and even trade opportunities. And you can just go and talk to all these people who are interested in the same thing that you are. Also, if you want to join and you want to follow along everything else that we're doing, hit the like and subscribe button here on YouTube. Leave us a review on Spotify or on Apple Podcasts because we love hearing from all of you. And finally on YouTube, we make all sorts of other content. We do podcasts, we do, we do video tutorials, we do rundowns just like this one. We talk about everything that's going on over here. In fact, we just had a video come out where we show you how to save 80% on your Coinbase trading fees. We know a lot of people use Coinbase and if you can save up to 80 on your trading fees, I think that's a positive. So you can always check out that video as well. But that's gonna round us off. Everyone, thank you all for watching and we'll see you at the same time, same place, next week.
- [58:12]
C
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- [58:48]
Bryce
Yeah, sure thing. Hey, you sold that car yet?
- [58:51]
TiVo
Yeah, sold it to Carvana.
- [58:53]
Bryce
Oh, I thought you were selling to that guy?
- [58:56]
TiVo
The guy who wanted to pay me in foreign currency, no interest over 36 months? Yeah, no. Carvana gave me an offer in minutes, picked it up and paid me on the spot. It was so convenient.
- [59:08]
Bryce
Just like that. Yep. No hassle.
- [59:10]
TiVo
None.
- [59:11]
Bryce
That is super convenient.
- [59:13]
D
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