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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: BTC All Time Highs & Institutions Are Quietly Buying Crypto While building Crypto Products
00:56:25
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Foreign.
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Welcome back to the crypto rundown presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And we're excited to have all of you back here with us again today. It is going to be an electric episode. Bitcoin's coming off a fresh all time highs. The altcoin market is starting the rally and just when we are, just when we felt like where we were getting to that proper breakout entering back into the euphoria zone, well, a little bit of selling pressure came in so we're going to talk about it. But beyond just price action, which we want to cover at the front end of the episode, there's a lot of other stuff going on here. We want to give a quick update with what's happening around these new spot ETFs specifically in regards to Litecoin, Solana and XRP because their deadlines are right around the corner. In fact, some of them have already passed. However, there's been no ETF approvals. We're going to explain why, we're going to explain what's going on and what you can all expect moving forward. Now beyond this, we want to look at the exchange flows. I mean these things are at five year lows. The IBIT bitcoin ETF continues to just set and break record after record and we're even seeing, seeing gold kind of continue to all time highs. And people are drawing new kinds of bitcoin gold correlations, which is something that's been looked at a lot recently. So on top of this there's lots of other fundamentals and technicals that we need to look at. A lot of stuff happening in the news flow and our job over here is to cover all of the catalysts. So everything from the fundamentals on the in the news to the technicals on the charts, we like to cover everything so that you all don't have to. So all we ask is that if you like the content that we make, consider hitting that like and subscribe button and let's go ahead and continue on with today's episode. So TiVo, it's an electric one. We're, we're moving higher and I'm liking it.
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Yeah, yeah, man. It's a, it's. Even though it's a pullback, it's an all time highs celebration here on the rundown, you particularly were calling for it both on X and just texting me directly telling me to queue up the music for our famous can you take me higher Bitcoin video that we play every time that bitcoin hits a New all time high. So overall, it's an exciting time. It's something that, again, if you've been listening to this show for, you know, the last month, six to eight weeks, we've been preparing you for this. We led you through kind of that volatile September and just kind of had the eyes on the prize of where we thought the market was going. Now that we're here again, it's, it's time to zoom out and let's, you know, take all the facts and see what the macros are and the technicals are and we can, you know, continue to navigate this together. But it is an exciting time and I think, you know, as these episodes continue to stack up on top of each other, it's just an endless flow of news in a positive way. So we're going to bring all that to you, but we'll. We'll kick it off with some technicals because what's more fun than charting an all time high, which you read like a book all the way last week.
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B
Yeah, exactly. Man, let's hope that this works this week. I know last week it was giving us a bit of issues. Yeah. But can, can you see my screen?
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A
Not. Not yet.
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B
No, not yet. Okay, well, give me a second here. It looks like Riverside is already frozen on me when I tried to share my screen. But, you know, TiVo, we are seeing a break to all time highs. You know, just to kind of tell everyone here of what's been happening. We had bitcoin having that, that break to the upside, and it looks like it's on now. Is that right?
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A
Looks great.
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B
Yeah. So, you know, we had this breakout to all time highs. And I was on a call yesterday kind of talking about this with some people inside the community. And I was saying, hey, you know, one thing to think about here, some food for thought, is that we've had this move to all time highs. No kind of clear breakout. And then we fell back in, another move that was slightly higher than before, but again, no kind of convincing moving close above here and we fell back in. And I was telling people over here, again, you know, we've seen these slightly higher high pushes where we fall back in. Don't be caught off guard if we do something like that again. And sure enough here today, you know, we're coming back in. Instead of topping out at 124 and a half, we topped out at 126. So again, we moved just slightly higher. You know, the first time we did this, we creeped up to 123. Then we creeped up about another 1% after that. This time we creeped up again, another 1, 1 1/2% to the upside and we're starting to tumble back in here. So this has kind of been a reoccurring theme where we just barely hit a new all time high. Well, this time it wasn't barely. You know, we pretty significantly hit a all time high. But ever since then it's been ever so slightly to the upside and we're falling back in over here. So it looks like, you know, this 125k area is just still a brutal resistance zone where we're having a hard time breaking through it. Now. I do think there will be a moment where we just destroy this thing and we head up higher. It is extremely frustrating, I think, and this is the big thing that I see from the community of people. Just frustrated, like, why won't this zone break? Like we're just ready to break out. You look at the equities market soaring through all time highs, you know, week after week. You look at the metals market, especially gold, which we'll talk about later. I mean, let's just take a look at these real fast. You know, you look at equities just pushing up higher. You go and you look at gold and people are saying, why can't we have a chart like this? And then you go over to bitcoin and I think people are feeling a little bit frustrated that we're triple topping here and not having the breakout. And so I think that frustration is warranted. However, what I'll say is that I really do believe that we're going to break this right? And crypto has had one heck of a year so far and it's always going to be kind of a more volatile asset. And if you look at it off the lows again, it's still outperformed everything kind of since April where this thing ran about 71%. You put that up against a lot of these other assets, you know, although they've been more consistent. Again you have bitcoin outperforming off the lows versus QQQ and gold, which has actually been surprising, surprisingly. Really, really good over here. If you kind of look at this thing since the April lows, it's only up about 34%. So again, in hindsight, people kind of look at this and they say, oh well, gold's trending up higher and equities are trending up higher. But when you actually look at the performance from the bottom of the tariff trade to where we're at right now in the current day, bitcoin still outperforming QQQ or Nasdaq by over 20% and gold by about 40%. And so just a friendly reminder there is that like, hey, we've still had a really good run. So I understand there hasn't been the same level of consistency, but one, we're still outperforming and two, I think it really is only a matter of time before we actually get kind of this greater move to the upside here. So there's three things that I'm kind of watching out for here on Bitcoin TiVo. Number one is we've kind of had this attempted breakout. Maybe we come back into around 121,120ish bounce here and continue to the upside. I think if we don't do it there, we could come back into around 117 and find some support around the previous highs. Maybe even the 20 and 50 day moving average. If we crack there, then maybe around 110, we're going to have a lot of support and then we just have a ton of support after this. But there's a lot of different layers to kind of look after here. So my big takeaway that I want to kind of plant in everyone's minds is that there's a lot of support levels beneath where we're at in my idea for this trade is that we, we pull back form a higher low and then we continue to the upside afterwards. And I think that that's the most likely scenario over here on, on bitcoin. So I would still be watching these pullbacks. You know, I've been watching these areas for a little bit of profit taking. I think it makes sense again when any kind of move where we get a new all time high. I think it's okay to look at this idea of profit taking. However, you know, I still think that there's more gas in the tank. I don't see this being the top of the market. I would be shocked if it is. The other thing I would just say kind of before I let everyone go back to kind of the fundamental side of things is it really was time for a pullback. When you look at this move that bitcoin did over here, this was essentially saying, hey, this was eight days, almost eight days in a row of green. Bitcoin appreciated about 16 to the upside. It gained over $17,000 in, in value and, and seven out of the last eight days were green daily candles, which is crazy. And the only red day that we had was a day where bitcoin ended up 0.2% red. So extremely long streak of green ever since this breakout were we do after a 16% move to the upside and having seven out of the last days, seven out of the eight last days be green. Probably due for a little bit of a pullback after something like that and it's perfectly okay. But what I did start to get a sense of TiVo at the top, and this is where I want to loop you back back in, is I started to get a sense of people having euphoria come back to the market. Bitcoin was pushing up to the highs, Ethereum was getting awfully close to the highs and I started to get a little bit of that euphoric feeling. I saw it happen in people that I was talking to. But did you see the same thing kind of on your end on the social side of things?
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Yeah, I think it's just kind of the agreement of when, when will we break out and it, like, what's going to propel us forward. I think we've talked about this on one of the episodes where we've had endless, endless news flow of positive regulation and sentiment, fundamentals and technicals. But, like, we keep getting kind of topped out of this range. So, you know, where, where is it going? Like, everybody's kind of bought into this higher narrative and just a little teaser because we can't do every single thing that we see on the show. We'd be here literally all day, which we would love to do with you guys, but other work calls. A little teaser for Friday. Brendan. I teed up some, some stats around M2 money supply. So I know we always show the chart, but it's a little bit deeper. Dive into the M2 money supply and how some things around the world are contributing for that to go higher. And then we're actually going to compare the M2 money supply for current day and then go back in history to some financial events like the 2008 crisis and as well as the 2000 bubble or housing crisis. I meant to finish that and then the 2000 bubble. So we can, we can talk about that on Friday. That'll be an exciting episode. We'll be back live with you guys. But overall, yeah, the, the sentiment's there. I think people just, it's human nature. People get bored. Right. And we see it with the numbers on YouTube, just the generic numbers and, and the podcast and the community and people, you know, clamoring for, you know, wanting to go higher and people just get bored in the range. But I think kind of like what, what we like to do is plating, planning our trades and trading our plans and with your course and technical analysis and kind of getting the whole picture if, if those times are where you can really plan your next moves and have action plans. So it's, it's a, those lulls are actually good not only for the market to take a breath, but for you to be able to get your strategy down.
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B
Spot on, man. And, you know, I think when it comes to what's happening, you know, one of the big things that stood out and I saw you talking about this was just the exchange reserves. We've gone back and forth about this idea and looking at these numbers. But you had a pretty cool charter article.
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Yeah, let me bring, let me bring it up for you.
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I mean it really is fascinating. I mean if you look at how deep this is falling off a cliff, it's, it's crazy. And it has continued to go on since 2021. So you look at this and there's a bunch of different charts that we can look at, but it's at a five year low. Bitcoin exchange balances and reserves are at five year lows here. And this is like the lowest that we have seen in a really, really long time. So what does this mean to the average person? Well, what this means is that supply is dwindling and demand as we know is skyrocketing. Hence why bitcoin's at all time highs. We're seeing ETF adoption, we're seeing DATs. Get it. We're seeing countries and different governments and retail and everyone right across the board wanting to get their hands on Bitcoin and put some sort of crypto legislator forward. And at the same time the supply is dwindling. So what we're having is a shortage of supply, a surge of demand. And what that does the price is, it really pushes it to the upside. And I've been saying this, I think we are in the process of a big old supply shock. I think that's what's coming our way and that it's probably only a matter of time until we get to the point where this supply shock actually hits. We know there's resistance, we know that there's some overhead, there's some things happening. You know, price isn't breaking out. You could say it's manipulation, you could say it's whatever you want. Regardless of this, I think there's going to be this big breakthrough moment where the supply shock gets squeezed to the max, it can't be held down anymore and we have this giant move upwards. And you know, here's my opinion, I think it's going to feel like a 2017 like moment for anyone who was around then. It was just a ridiculous moment where we had something kind of like this happen to I would say a much smaller and kind of different degree. But prices just started going bonkers and exchanges couldn't keep up. They were going offline. And we've already seen a number of exchanges go offline in the last year or so. I mean, obviously we've seen happen with Coinbase, we've seen it happen with some other exchanges. Even the Crazy kind of AMD moment that the tradfi markets had the other day that even caused Robinhood to go offline. And I rarely ever see Robinhood go offline and just goes to show that like, you know, investors are hungry I think no matter which way you look at it and supply is squeezing. So keep an eye out on for this and I, I really do think it's kind of coming our way.
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A
Yeah, I didn't have this on the sheet but thought it'd be worth pulling it up. Just kind of the bitcoin ETF tracker. We bring this up on the show sometimes. Brian, Brian likes this one. But you know, here's the 30 day, 30 day trend. Obviously you know, a couple outflows there instead of the September red days. But I mean this kind of the correlation of what you showed on the bitcoin chart of just, you know, it was at six, seven, eight days in a row of green candle, green candle. I mean the, the ETF flows are following this and massive, I mean we're talking billions of dollars here, you know, in the last 30 days. So it's something that again we can zoom out to a year, you know, I don't know, pretty, pretty stacked on the front, middle and back end here. So we'll see what, what Q4 brings which I think is going to, you know, we think was going to propel us higher. But again when these products just take time and the, those institutions, they just move at a glaze glacier's pace. And so it is one of those things is as much as we're range bound like you said, with a low supply and then if there's a green light at the end of the year or the beginning of next year to start piling into this, you know, bitcoin trade, is that something that can break us through and then you top that with the low supply. It's like there's all these factors that we monitor all the time and again we don't have a crystal ball so you don't know exactly how it's going to play out. But again it's kind of an odds game. Right. We talk about polymarket and Cal on this all the time of like where do you think bitcoin is going to end? And we showed you the odds, everybody's thinking higher and it's, it's mainly because if you do the research there's all these things that are just kind of leaning you towards that bullish sentiment and, and you know, the ETFs at A, as a whole have Momentum, but none has more momentum than ibit. I mean, IBIT is absolutely rewriting the history books here. And so we'll pull up this chart. It's basically showing how fast IBIT took to, to get to record levels that, you know, VU took all this time, gold, all these things. And I bet it's done it just in 435 days, 100 billion dollar mark. So it's, it's a hair away from a hundred billion dollars. And you can see, you know, 2011 days, 2208 days, 3203 days. And Ibit did it in 435 days. Brendan, what do you, what are your thoughts on that? I mean that, that's an insane stat.
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B
It's a ridiculous stat. And again, it goes back to this idea is there's surging demand here. I mean, there's clear and obvious surging demand. It didn't just do it in a fraction of the time or, you know, half the time. No, I mean we're talking just a, just record setting level where it took this thing slightly over a year. And you look at what second place is 2000 days, third place is almost a year after that. Then you got 3,000 plus days for a lot of these ETFs to get to this kind of point. And bitcoin did it in just over a year, about a year and a half, which is a crazy metric to hit. And you can see it on these charts. So again, I think that this just goes back to this idea that the demand is clearly there for bitcoin. And I don't see that going away. I don't think it's slowing down. You look at this adoption curve and I think that it'll follow the same level of adoption that all those other ones do. Where you see, yeah, they have kind of their peaks in their valleys over time. Right? You see it on all of these. But what happens? Well, they resume to the upside afterwards. And I think bitcoin in the IBIT etf, why would it differ from the rest of these? Right. They have continued to go on for 2,000, 3,000 plus days, 4,000 days, and they've all appreciated higher to the right. So although bitcoin was the fastest one to do it, why should its performance be any different than any of these other ETFs that have ran the same path? My kind of prediction here is that for the next two to three thousand days, it should continue to follow this. Again, there's going to be periods, you look at any of these charts, they go up they go down, they go up, they go down, but they resume higher over the long term. And I don't really see a scenario where bitcoin and its ETFs don't follow that same path.
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A
Yeah. And then in 12 months, just to add on to that, I mean, IBIT has become the most profitable, most profitable ETF in their lineup here. So if we're bringing up this little graph, not graph, but just chart here we have the I IBIT up there with 244 million in rev and then under, that's the Russell, you know, just the S&P 500. And I think part of it is, is, you know, assets under management. As you can see, Bitcoin's not necessarily as high as the Russell is or the SP 500, but it's kind of based around the fees. Right. And we did a video on our YouTube if, if there's somebody new here that's interested in understanding like what Bitcoin ETF you want to do, you want to buy, maybe, if that's the way you want to go. Brandon had an awesome video about that. Explain fees. Obviously BlackRock's fees are a little bit higher, but they're also, you know, the institution that's probably one of the most trusted and the biggest. And so kind of the, the thesis outside of all the technicals and, and the fundamentals is just kind of this storyline of being the most profitable product is something that you want to continue to sell. And so I've, I've kind of given this thesis off. You cannot even believe in bitcoin. You can think it's something that is, is, is not something that you believe in the fundamentals, the use case and all that stuff. This is just something that's going to be sold. Like if you're, if you're in Blackrock now, you're saying, okay, all these, you know, 80, 70, 60, 50 year old boomers that have all the retirement money for years they've been told, you know, bitcoin, no, it's a scam. It's scary. Do not invest. Do not invest like Larry. We've played the clips of the Larry Fink over the years of him saying that. And then now Larry Fink is parading around doing the media circuits, talking about, well, no, no, actually bitcoin is a great innovation. And now that, you know, blackrock has the rails to do it properly, we're gonna, you know, suggest that you put 1, 2% into our Bitcoin ETF as a part of your portfolio and you're like your head scratching like well wait, didn't you say three years ago that was for criminals? And it's a, it's a scam. It's like no, no, no. Well now we solved that with the blackrock etf. Come on, come on now, now we have one.
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B
So come to us.
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A
Right? And it's just, it's the, it's the, the soldiers march of salespeople that this is how they make their living. They could not even believe in bitcoin one iota but they're going to go try and sell that to because it has the highest, you know, revenue that, that puts money in everybody's pockets. And so there's a greed factor to this thing too. Plus the FOMO plus the use case. Like it really is one of those things that's like, I don't know man. It kind of seems, you know, it's not, it's never personal financial advice here. We're just a couple friends talking crypto. But like it just kind of seems like a no brainer for, for the longer term view.
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B
Yeah, it does. And like I said, I think it's gonna continue on this path upwards and so far nothing's really slowing it down too much.
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A
Yeah. And then I'll bring up, I have a video I want to play and it's kind of around the same process of you know, the, the older generation believes in gold and gold is crushing. Right. You said on the charts, you know, gold continues to make new all time highs and that's where the older generation tends to go in these times of inflation or you know, dollar debasement. It's like we go to gold, we go to gold and it's, it's purely performing. But again if you, you know, zoom out and you do that 10, you know, whatever your comparison you want to do against gold, you know, bitcoin is, is the better performer. And so what, what's happening with this offerings of BlackRock and the comparison of Bitcoin versus Gold. It's a conversation that's starting to creep into that mainstream finance media. Before it was bitcoin was just this. Again it's a scam, stay away from it. Blah, blah. Now, now that we're having segments on it comparing bitcoin to gold. So let's, let's watch this. It's a two minute clip. I'll probably play about a minute. So let's, let's, let's check it out and then we can digest it.
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D
Action here because we are seeing that similar kind of Consolidation, breakout. Consolidation, breakout. But we got some kind of bottoming patterns of developing each time the consolidation happens.
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A
That's right.
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D
So as we can tell here, it's very clear bullish pattern. Now, the only difference between this one so far in the previous twos, we haven't got the full extension yet. Now, there's a very important point here is that the timing of when these breakouts occur, which are at the very beginning stages of the fourth quarter. 2023, 2024. So here we are again right now. That's because there's been positive seasonality for bitcoin over its history over the last 10 years of nine in the fourth quarter, especially October, because here we are now, we know bitcoin is already up a good amount. So I think this has ability to eventually take advantage of this and much higher. Okay, so that's the regular gold versus the digital gold trade. Let's clear this and let's put the comparative up because the relative price movement can tell us something about maybe future performance as well. No guarantees, of course. Right. The disclaimer is always there. What did the pattern show you? This is the course of the past kind of year or so. What are you seeing here?
- [27:03]
A
That's right.
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D
As we can tell, coming into the month, it was a pretty big performance gap, almost 20%. Right. So there is a tendency to have this close. Now, we've seen this before as well, where start off very similar and then as gold stopped. This is when bitcoin started to rally again. And of course, by the time you got to the summer months, those percentages were now the same again, which I think has a pretty good chance of happening once more. That could even, you know, again, gold moving just sideways or lower, bitcoin continue to move higher. I think see that into the fourth quarter, into the end of the year.
- [27:38]
A
So there it is. And those are the conversations that are happening on, you know, mainstream business news television that everybody's seeing. And again, it's. It's really elevating the conversation of bitcoin into that normal financial system which we've been covering now for the, you know, two, three. You know, we've been doing this forever, but it was always. We were the black sheep, right? The crypto was always the black sheep. And now it's just we always like to think of ourselves as the outsiders because it's a fun way to think, the underdog kind of mentality. But it's not. It's not the case anymore. We're in the conversations and so stuff like that. Just even, just even the conversation of, I think is important to note, plus just the interesting arbitrage of, of that chart between gold and bitcoin.
- [28:19]
B
Yeah, it is, man. And it's funny because that chart on BTC that they showed looked awfully familiar to a chart, to a chart that we've talked about. Let me just flash this up on the screen every, everyone, so that you all can see this as well. And it's. They were talking about this, about, hey, you know, bitcoin moves up and then has these bullish consolidations, and then it moves up and has these bullish consolidations and then moves up. And I was like, man, this looks awfully familiar to a chart that we've shown here on the program and that we've been trying to tell everyone about where we have these sharp moves up consolidation, sharp move up consolidation, sharp move up consolidation. And they all look so identical. This is on a weekly chart. They look even more similar on a, on a daily chart. But it is kind of the same idea where, you know, the first kind of point that we had, the pivot, you know, bitcoin was able to move up over here over 100% to the upside. Then you look at it from its next pivot, it was able to do about 200%. You look at it to the next pivot over 100%. You look at it this time around, and again, it just has not seen a full extension from its kind of bottom or even its prior highs. It really hasn't moved that significantly to the upside yet. And so I agree with what they were saying on CNBC and that the full extension of this move just clearly has not happened yet. If you look at it and you compare it to any move that we've had inside of this macro cycle since 2022, this would say that the overall move is not finished. Now, that's not like some sort of immutable fact that can't be changed. And it has to be that way. That's not necessarily what we're saying here. But what we are saying is that the data points and that's all that we can look at, that there's no absolutes. We don't have a crystal ball with some 100% hit rate. But we can look back and say, historically speaking, using all the data in front of us, there's just no data saying that, that, that we've peaked. In fact, all the data is saying there should be more to come. And that's kind of where I'm, where.
- [30:14]
A
I'm standing Yeah, I think being you are on the same page there and I follow all my, all my leadings on the technical charts from you and it's always fun to see again kind of the similarities around when there' consensus view. Again I always like to say you don't want to be on the same side of the boat as everybody but that's kind of what leads to what we said when we started the show. Like hey, there's all the excitement over the weekend, all time highs. Then everybody all gets levered up with the longs and they start taking out leverage and that needs to get cleaned out of the system because you know that's just, just how the market makers work. They, they kind of work both ways and then we'll, we'll go our way higher. But you know you've been spot on it especially with all your technical analysis. And again just a friendly reminder, if you are interested in joining Brendan's group for the six week micro boring trading course where you get that type of technical analysis, you know, twice a week live with Brendan for an hour plus the course. Check the link below. I put it in the description for you. I know the cohort is underway but you can sign up to get notified when it opens back up.
- [31:13]
B
We're doing next week, we're opening up next week. We're gonna open it up on I believe Wednesday.
- [31:21]
A
Super excited, super exciting. So yeah, I mean it's again it's just one of those times where the markets are flying. We need more technical analysis. You know, Brendan's the guy to do it. So check out that link below. Also checking out the chat. I mean we didn't really, we didn't have a time to promote it to the nation community today. So it's just our YouTube community. But active chat boys and, and girls. We got Deborah there, Deborah Fitz, Ryan, Josh Clark, Noah Blue, Baylor Bear Grants in the chat. Just having a ball on a, on a Tuesday and a last minute Tuesday. We didn't promote this so we appreciate everybody joining. If you could give us a thumbs up. It really helps us grow the show and if there is anybody here that's new, definitely subscribe.
- [32:02]
B
Who is the famous Bear that we had like a year or so ago and he'd come in here, you remember it was something Bear. I thought it was, I don't think it was Baylor Bear.
- [32:11]
A
No Baylor Bear, I don't remember that.
- [32:13]
B
Now we had a famous guy and he'd always come in here and he'd be bearish and man we used to give him Shout outs.
- [32:19]
A
It's oh Baylor. His name wasn't Bear. It was something. But he was just, he was an all time crypto bear.
- [32:26]
B
Yeah, crypto bear. And we'd reference him. We want him our team.
- [32:29]
A
Yeah, inverted. I think it was like inverted investing or something. He, he seemed to have disappeared. He always used to make, he would call us out when there was a big dip. He was dancing on our graves in March during the tariff dip. And then we stayed strong both on the program and off the program in our own little DJ and chat together, doing some, doing some options trading. I know. And then, yeah, then this rip higher. He, he seemed to have disappeared. So shout out to him for keeping. At least keeping us honest.
- [33:00]
B
Hey, yeah, it's funny, I've seen a couple of people like that and you know, I have like a little group chat with some of my friends and there's this one guy in there who's like perma bear and he's been saying it's gonna crash, it's gonna crash. And like we've just been pushing higher and higher and yeah, with this one guy, like no one's heard from him in like a month or two now and for the past couple of months and it's just like all these bears, man, are getting just liquidated and wrecked and people have been trying to short and short and short ever since the tariff thing. And they had a good two to three months stretch towards the start of this year around springtime, but ever since then there's just been no opportunity for it. And again, I have a hard time seeing the bearish view in the big picture. There's going to be these short term opportunities and stuff, but man, I don't know, I'd hate to be a bear. You just said baler bear and I know that's not the same person, but it just got me thinking that we've had a couple of people like that who come on and every time we'd fall they'd come back to the YouTube chat and be like, here, it's in your face, I'm gonna shove it here. And they go real quiet once we hit new all time highs.
- [34:04]
A
Yeah, he was, he was kind of calling you out a lot, wasn't he? Yeah, the bears, the bears are, the bears are in distress. They're. They're saying their prayers. Prayers for the bears is kind of what I always say on the, on the timeline. I think one of the last things when the bears go to sleep and they just start dreaming. I think this is kind of let Me, let me share it. I think this is what they see in their dreams and they just know that they're, they're quite in trouble here. It's the Jerome pal and jeans meme. I think that's just. The bears are trying, they want to short the market, but there's just too much, too much liquidity going in. I'm no tech genius, but I knew if I wanted my business to crush it, I needed a website. Now, thankfully, bluehost made it easy. I customized, optimized and monetized everything exactly how I wanted with AI. In minutes, my site was up. I couldn't believe it. The search engine tools even helped me get more site visitors. Whatever your passion project is, you can set it up with Bluehost with their 30 day money back guarantee. What do you got to lose? Head to bluehost.com that's B L U E H O S T.com to start now. Shopify is a global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of.
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- [35:31]
A
Shopify.com RedCircle but let's see, where are we going here with ETF deadlines? So I think before we dive into that specifically, we want to do mention that, you know, it's not really anything that we want to break down too crazy until it gets to the point where it's, you know, mainstream financial news. But the government is shut down right now and you know, for whatever reason, it'll be solved eventually is how. You know, history shows that. And history also shows that the markets look through this and we're in the first week of it. But it isn't, it is interesting to note that a couple things will not be happening around the data. Jobs numbers and inflation data, all that stuff. That's not, that's not private. So if it's public sector data from the government, that's all not going to happen. So it's interesting that we're leading into a Fed decision while the government shut down. I think from the odds and from Pal's talk, you know, 25 bips isn't that crazy. So that's kind of what the market's looking at again. But it is interesting to kind of be flying blind during this time, not getting the data and then that also could affect some of the ETF filings as well, Brendan. But I know it's something that you want to talk about for the spot ETF filings because it seemed like we were getting pretty excited about some movement there.
- [36:43]
B
Yeah, exactly. That's been like one of the big questions that I've seen on the timeline, which is, guys, why haven't we gotten these ETF approvals yet? And how is that going to be affected by all this? Because I believe last week we talked about how these ETFs essentially got pushed to a 100 chance of approval from the Bloomberg intelligence analysts. Now, specifically, they were talking about Bitcoin or not Bitcoin, Litecoin, Solana and xrp. As we have on the screen here, the litecoin deadline was the second, the Solana deadline is the 10th, and the XRP deadline is the 17th. So these are all about a week apart from each other. And the reason for this, why we haven't seen this, and why we could actually see all of these pushed back, is because of the government being shut down. So the SEC is supposed to approve this if the government shut down, that includes the sec. And so these things are at a standstill until the government reopens. So even though it says, hey, the final deadline is here, the government's closed.
- [37:48]
A
Right.
- [37:49]
B
Even if they wanted to deny them, they couldn't do that. Even if they wanted to approve them, they couldn't do that. I mean, literally nothing can happen. It's like saying that someone should do their job and they're like in an. I don't know, they're not at work. Right. They just simply are not going to be there to be able to do anything good or bad. So just because we haven't gotten these yet, it is not a bad thing. And that's kind of the big message that I want everyone to understand here. The second part of this is that these can probably get pushed back a little bit. I'm not sure of all the nuances and rules and regulations about how this works and, you know, how a government shutdown affects final deadlines and stuff. But I would imagine that this kind of pushes everything back at least a little bit for the duration of the shutdown. So will we get these by these deadlines? I sure hope so. I don't think it's a matter of whether we're going to get them or not. I just think that this affects the timeline of when we get them, if that makes sense. So it's not a matter of are we going to get these. It's a matter of when are we going to get these? And this whole government shutdown essentially pushes them back a little bit. So again, don't freak out too much. I still see these as coming and, you know, they're still on the horizon here. So as soon as things get back open, I'm sure all the, like, super, super important things with the SEC are going to get handled first. Anything that's immediately pressing and then in the words of Paul Atkins, crypto is his top priority, as he said about a week ago. So I think that he's going to come right around to these after all of the, like, highest priority things are done. I think crypto is going to be next on his radar and we should get these ETF approvals.
- [39:23]
A
I agree, I agree. And I think that while, while the public sector. Yeah, the public sector of the government is shut down, the private sector continues to march forward. Something that was just announced today. And let's give credit to somebody. I. Yeah, Baylor Bear. Of course. Of course it's Baylor Bear. Baylor Bear was like. Did you guys talk about it yet? Not yet. It just happened today, Brendan. A couple hours ago it was the S P Global announced its new crypto index, the S P 500 digital markets 50 index, in partners with Denarii Global. Important to note, Denari is also tokenizing the index so it can be traded on chain, of course. And it seems like again, this just came out, so I haven't had a chance to deep dive in it, neither is Brendan, but it seems like it's a digital markets 50 index. So it would be like the top 50 cryptos or. We don't know exactly how this would be decided, but the index is designed to track a wide range of companies and digital assets connected to the crypto ecosystem. So does that include. Bit mine? Does that include MicroStrategy? Does it include Solana Spot? We don't quite know that. We'll get the details for you, but just something exciting again. The S&P 500 just, you know, rolling with the punches and continuing to. To give out kind of bullish sentiment around getting stuff on chain, unlocking liquidity and providing, you know, funds to get access to this, these companies and technology.
- [40:44]
B
Yeah, exactly. Well, look into this a little bit more. Like TiVo said, this is like hot off the press. So there's not a ton of information yet, but we'll have to do some more digging and get back to you with a lot of the details.
- [40:57]
A
Yeah, but something that we can dive into the details on again, institutions. That's the title of this episode. I named it for this reason. Institutions are diving in. We've talked about in the, in the last couple weeks how Vanguard has went from its no Bitcoin stance to now starting to move towards not just Bitcoin ETFs but also just offering crypto in general. They know that if they don't take action, they're going to get left behind in the dust. And then friends of the program, Morgan Stanley has entered the group chat. Folks, new special report from Morgan Stanley saying that we aim to support our financial advisors and clients who may flexibly to allocate to cryptocurrency as a part of their multi asset portfolios. Again, just like we covered at the top of the show with the Bitcoin ETF and the, and the revenue that they're making from this etf, Larry Finks led the way. I think grayscale paved the way, XRP paved the way for these lawsuits and getting stuff passed and helping get the ETFs launched. We've talked about how smart of a play Larry Fink was. Let them, let the, let their lawyers pay for that. And then, and then. But BlackRock has just busted through the door and showcased how this IBIT in record timing has become, you know, one of the most profitable ETFs in the entire financial space. And everybody's taking notice. Vanguard's humming on board. Here comes Morgan Stanley. They have over 16,000 advisors managing $2 trillion in savings and wealth for clients. Again, here's Hunter from Bitwise. Just saying, hey, we're entering the mainstream area and like we said, this moves at a glacial pace. It's slow, but it's slow and it's leaking. And then it's one of those things where, you know, we're waiting for this breakout, we're waiting for this breakout. But you might look back, you know, day to day and month to month, you're not getting the action you want. But then two or three years from now you might look in the rearview mirror and be like, oh man, wow, that was quick.
- [42:40]
B
Yeah, I mean, exactly. And it's crazy just how bullish these asset managers are getting on the crypto space. I mean exposure is going to become normal. There's going to eventually be, you know, there already is trillions of dollars in this. But I think we could even see the ETFs push up to the, to the trillion dollar mark and with how much custody that all these different asset managers have again in the ETFs alone. I wouldn't be shocked if those get a trillion dollar valuation in the future. And yeah, I mean, look at this, just them talking about their different allocation strategies and what they're recommending. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I think that this will be a normal thing. People look at it right now and they're saying, oh, it's, it's risky and this and that, it's no longer risky. I mean, you have the, some of the largest asset managers, not some, you have almost all of the largest asset managers on earth saying that you should have exposure. And the funny thing about it, TiVo, is that there's always going to be that one uncle, like character who's going to be like, no, you know what, I know better, it's too risky. Listen to me, don't get exposure. And the same people have been saying this for over a decade now. And it's funny because I was listening again, gotta throw. I think we actually have Tom Lee, ironically on the calendar for some other point later. But I was listening to him talk about this and he said, hey, we first talked about this eight years ago and we talked about getting bitcoin and ETH exposure at something like it was something like 2% of your portfolio. And he said, now what that would do is represent something close to like 70 or 80% of your portfolio if you had just gotten around 2% exposure back then. And it's crazy because even in the current day, even after kind of seeing that performance, and usually people say, you know, like, performance is kind of the ultimate guide over time. Even after this, there's still these one off characters that are going to look at the largest asset managers on the planet and they're still going to say, you know what, I think I know better. I know that they're saying on this chart, you know, 1%, 2%, 3%, maybe even as high as 4% crypto allocation, there's still going to be people who disagree with that, which to me is ludicrous and I can't really wrap my head around it. And I think that the risk of not having crypto in your portfolio is higher than the risk of having it in your portfolio. Right. Because there is the opportunity here to have so much potential upside. You know, maybe it won't go from 2% to 80% of your portfolio like bitcoin or eth could have done over the last eight or so years, but there's still, again, I think the risk of not having it is so much far greater than missing an opportunity like this one. And so in the same way that you go and you diversify and you invest in tech and you invest in metals and bonds and equities and indices and all these other things, again, this is just my own personal opinion. It's not financial advice by any means, but I just think the, the risk here of not including it just far out. Weigh the other side.
- [45:45]
A
Yeah, and, and it's all about perspective. Again, you can see here, at the bottom here, the recommendations for maximum crypto allocation, wealth conservation, zero percent. I mean, I think that can be debated obviously with, you know, some of the fundamentals and the beliefs around Bitcoin is for, for the conservation of your capital against, you know, the tyranny dollar. But at the same time, there's so many financial products around there that, you know, if you're have hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars or billions of dollars, you know, you, you can, there's so many ways to have your money work for you that again, you'll, you'll be fine if you don't have Bitcoin. But I think it's more interesting to go to the 3. Again, income to 0. That could be debated, I guess, with staking, but let's just jump to the 3, 4 and 5. Balanced growth, 2%. Market growth, 3%. Opportunistic growth, 4%. I mean, Brennan, a year ago, or you're, I guess, a little bit more than a year ago now. But when these ETFs first came out, we were just talking about, God, imagine if these, if, if these institutions start recommending 1% just into Bitcoin. And now this is. Again, let's go to this other page, guys. Who wrote this? Morgan Stanley. Yes, we all know Morgan Stanley, but it's Steve Edwards, Dan, I don't want to butcher that. And Danny Spencer, Cavallo, cfa. Everybody see that? Cfa. Cfa. That's a certified financial advisor. That's who these. Again, to go back to this point, 50, 60, 70 years, that's, that's who they go to, to talk about what to do with their money. Certified financial advisors, which again, we are not certified financial advisors. That's why this isn't personal financial advice. But that's what the people who are giving personal financial advice are sending them their documents. And then of course, they're building products around it to get the revenue fees from it. But we're not talking about 1% anymore. We're talking about 2, 3, 4%. I've seen up to 5 and 10. And we talked about, you know, One of the famous investors recommended, what was it like 20% in crypto. So you know, how many, how many people do you know in your life that when you try to talk crypto with them still look at you like you're crazy? They're on 0% and eventually with all these products they're gonna get to that 1 2% and they're not even gonna know it. In my opinion. Like, I think the majority of people kind of like we've talked about with crypto is how is crypto gonna grow? Well, you need to be able to use crypto rails without you even realizing it. It's something that we used to say when we were talking about individual altcoins and how they're gonna be used and in daily life. And that's kind of what's happening here with the investment side of it is a lot of, a lot of people are going to start to be getting to 1% or definitely off zero up to 1, 2, 3%. They're not even going to really know it.
- [48:18]
B
No, I would completely agree. Man. And the crazy thing is, you know, we still have a long ways to go, right? Does everyone in the world already have 1%, 2%, 3% exposure? No, obviously not. And so we, we have a long ways to go and it just kind of feeds into this long term argument.
- [48:37]
A
Yeah, the bulls are here. And then, you know, we've talked, we've really talked about, you know, Bitcoin, Ethereum a lot and we've been covering Salon and all the other altcoins. But Salana had a great weekend. And as we wait for these ETFs to get approved, there's other products that are available on exchanges that, that we don't really talk about because again there, there's some, it's not necessarily a spot, you know, investment. So it's, it's kind of tricky to figure out to know what you're buying and we're a big proponent so you have to know what you're buying. But there's a lot of ETPs, exchange traded products that are trying to mirror the performance of Seoul. And obviously with the big momentum for the Soul ETFs, there's people that are going to be front running that. I remember there was the grayscale. This is a while ago. Brandon, do you remember when grayscale, I think it was right after ftx, there was like an arbitrage opportunity where the bitcoin that the grayscale fund had was at like, it was, it was at a huge discount.
- [49:32]
B
Yeah.
- [49:33]
A
No, he was more. Dude, I think it was like 50 almost. But Bryce called it and I remember I sprinkled on it and then it ended up being a good bet because the, the knob came, that the nav came back up. But you know, it's just something that you got to know what you're buying. So don't run out and buy these things if you're not doing the research. But the ETPs for soul had just crazy, crazy inflow. You know, look at that. Hockey. We use hockey sticks sometimes on these graphs. That's a. I don't even. That's five hockey sticks. That's unbelievable. So, you know, people are getting bowled up for, for just crypto in general. But it's definitely seems like Solana is, is the next. Everybody's trying to play this Solana ETF play. So can you give the people a little background on ETPs and specifically what you're seeing here with the net inflows?
- [50:20]
B
Yeah, well, first of all, I think you're right. I think people are betting that Solana and potentially XRP are going to be like the next big ones to make plays here. And this chart shows obviously people are trying to front run it. So the big question that we've gotten is what's the difference between an ETF and an etp? Well, an ETF and an ETP are slightly different. Right. Specifically when we talk about a spot ETF. So these ETPs are exchange traded products as opposed to ETFs which are exchange traded funds. And in a spot ETF it is actually buying and selling the underlying asset. So if someone comes in with $10,000 and they purchase Ibit for the BlackRock ETF, BlackRock is actually going and buying $10,000 of Bitcoin at that price. So that's what the word spot means, is that they're actually buying the underlying product or asset with the money that you're providing them. And so you're getting literal bitcoin exposure. The ETPs are a little bit different where these are meant to mimic price action, but they're not actual direct exposure. So these can vary in a bunch of different ways, whether people are using futures contract strategies and option strategies and different algorithms to kind of balance these things out. But they're not actually going and doing a one for one buy and sell for everyone's order. That's being transacted. So again, the ETPs are meant to reflect price action and mimic it, but the spot ETFs are actually buying and selling the underlying asset. And Actually like doing real price action. So that's the difference here between the two. And I mean, like you said TiVo, people are trying to front run this thing. They're trying to get exposure. And it's interesting that we already have like Solana options that are available on the stock market. There's a 2 or a 3x Solana ETP that's already out there. And people can get these leveraged Solana products already built in for like shares, but they can't trade spot. And that's never made sense to me about why people can go and they can buy like a 2 or 3x ETF of Solana, but they can't buy Spot Solana. And they're like, well, spot Solana seems a little bit too risky, but if you want to get levered exposure to it, by all means. And those things are live on the, on the stock exchange already. I can't wrap my head around it. And that's the one question I've gotten several times and I've just never been able to have a good answer to it. And, you know, probably because there's a custody issue and they're worried about custody. That could be the only thing that comes to my mind because again, with the Spot etf, you actually have to worry about custody. And with these ETPs, they don't actually hold any crypto. They're just meant to mimic the price action. So maybe that's the only reason here. But it still is funny. I mean, it's so comical to me that you can have these 2 and 3x altcoin ETFs but not a spot one there. And so they're coming. I really do believe they're coming. Let's hang out for a little bit longer and you know, they'll be moving.
- [53:16]
A
Yeah, bullish sentiment. And then again, it's not just whatever ETFs are coming down the pipeline, it's these, you know, basket products that, that are going to really, you know, take flight as well once, once they all start getting offered. And I think tomorrow we're actually. Well, it'll come out next week or the week after. I haven't gotten the exact date yet, but we're having Pantera Capital, Cosmo Jang joining us tomorrow. That's gonna be a really good one. I saw he was on cnbc. He did a live TV hit yesterday. I didn't even know. I just had it on the background. I heard his name. I was like, oh man, he's coming on the podcast this week. And, and I Think he's a. He's obviously a big crypto bull in general, but I think he's a big, big Solana bull. So we'll have some good Solana conversation with Pantera Capital's Cosmo Jang and we're gonna put that out in the coming weeks. So something to look forward to as we move on. Just a couple notes to finish here, guys. You gotta stay vigilant. You gotta stay smart. Don't be like Germany. Don't do this to yourself, guys. The German government's decision to sell 50,000 bitcoin at 54k has cost them now $3.57 billion in missed profits. Now, we're not in the German government, Brendan and I, we don't know what they did with the money, but we can basically guarantee you that the money that they got did not turn into $3.57 billion. So, yeah, huge swing and a miss there from, from Germany and my. We're waiting for the U.S. i saw that Cynthia Loomis actually tweeted, she's always teasing that the. The strategic bitcoin reserve for. For the US Is going to buy some more. She tweets that all the time. She's smart on Twitter. She knows how to get engagement. But that was my hot take for the end of the year that I think, you know, we'll see some traction on that, hopefully. But that would be really exciting. But the most exciting thing, Brendan, would be to see Germany get back in and buy at, you know, 150k or something.
- [55:12]
B
We'll see. I just. Here's my thing. I think if you're silly enough to sell down there, to sell 50,000 Bitcoin at $50,000, I just feel like you're not going to be. I don't know, I just don't see them being able to play this well. So it's either. I feel like they don't buy any at all and they left. They get left behind, or maybe they buy the peak and it just isn't smart. I don't know. The thing about a government's though, is that they're always going to be accumulating a little bit of crypto, just like they do with cash and a lot of other assets through just criminal activity. Right. You know, when these governments confiscate things for criminal purposes, you know, they confiscate drugs, they compensate cash, they get fiat. I'm sure that they get like yachts and houses and cars and again, crypto's included into that. So the thing is, you know, over time they should accumulate more crypto and you know, kind of along those lines. That has me thinking what you were saying about Cynthia Loomis. I think most people would be happy with a bitcoin reserve that just takes all confiscated and illegal, you know, bitcoin acquisitions and it just puts that into the reserve. So, you know, that's not necessarily the government going out of their way and buying it with taxpayer money. But I think even just people acknowledging the fact that, hey, any future bitcoin that is acquired, which I get, I guess that is kind of already included because they already said they're not going to be selling any more bitcoin. So that would kind of infer that any bitcoin or crypto that we get from illegal acquisitions would have to go into the reserve. So it kind of already has a built in mechanism that like we can acquire bitcoin, but it can't really go anywhere.
- [56:56]
A
Yeah, we just, we just need our first, first budget, neutral purchase, whatever, whatever that, whatever that means. However they dice that up, it'll be something that we're obviously tracking and it'll be fun to see. But to wrap up the show today, you know, we do talk about Tom Lee all the time. I didn't think it was possible to like him anymore, but then I saw this clip and it just speaks for itself. It's a, it's a great piece of, of comedy. Just showing how based Tom is and how in tuned he is, how long he's been around a part of crypto. Just hilarious stuff from Tom Lee from Token 2049 in Singapore. Let's take a listen here.
- [57:33]
D
I want to get your reaction from, from a friend of the show, Andrew Kong. Andrew Kong. I don't know if people saw this. It was titled Tom Lee's E Thesis is retarded. Got about 1.5 million views and basically his claim was that, yeah, look, it might be true that stablecoins are going Ethereum. RWA is going Ethereum. People, you know, banks are going to use Ethereum, but they're not going to pay fees. Nobody's saying fees for any of this. This is all just a meme. And you should buy, I don't know, robotics companies. I guess he's super big robotics. Now, do you have a counterpoint to what you saw coming out of the Andrew Kong camp? The doubters.
- [58:03]
B
Well, as you know, in the crypto.
- [58:04]
D
World is a good thing. So I took it as a compliment. Okay. Okay, very good. I'm eth charting. There you go. Good response. That's a, that's a very good response. Wow. Okay.
- [58:18]
A
That guy, I mean somebody that's more self aware and comedic, timing and understanding the environment that he lives and works in, all while being one of, you know, the, I mean, I guess like literally like one of the greatest investors in the last decade is. He's a treasure. He's a treasure. We, we must protect Tom Lee at all costs.
- [58:38]
B
You gotta protect the man. The guy is funny because he can be so serious and so like very formal and well spoken in front of the camera when he's on national television and then he can sit back in like a reclining chair in front of like a token conference and say stuff like that. So I mean, you know, he does it all. He has a bed in his office, all while juggling all these different hats and positions. And so, yeah, you know, he's smart, man.
- [59:04]
A
I think it's hard, hard to bet against him and we'll keep covering him as well. Just a Little business, internal crypto 101 business to wrap up the show. Guys, it is October. We are going to be super, super busy with so much stuff this month, but we still want to get out as many episodes as we can. We're banking some interview episodes we're going to release. Brendan and I are going to go and try and do these rundowns as much as we can and do some lives. We will be doing a Friday. Brendan and I are going to decide on the time and I will post it later today. But there will be no lives next week. And then we'll try and schedule summit at the end of October as well. But we just have, we just have a lot of work going on, a lot of research. The team's getting together. It's October so we got to stay locked in. Obviously, just a lot of stuff getting us propelled forward into as we, as we are in Q4. But as we head into the end of the year, the Crypto101 team has going to stay locked in and everything that we're doing is to try to bring you guys the best content that we can. So just stay with us. I know we've been really, really regimented at getting a good schedule and a good cadence. It's going to get a little disrupted here, but we're still going to try and put out as much content as we can. So just stay in tune to the X, the YouTube and the podcast and we're going to get as much information as we can to you guys. But Brendan, I'll hand it off to you to wrap up the show.
- [60:21]
B
Yeah. Well, hey everyone, we really appreciate all of you coming in here, listening to what we have to say. Obviously a lot to talk about. It was almost in another hour long episode over here, but we hope everyone's pulled up. Listen, it's a great time to be a part of crypto. We've been loving all the price action so far. Obviously, we think the future is looking bright, which means that there is the potential for more upside. So. So we're looking at these dips pretty eagerly. Doesn't mean that they can't happen, doesn't mean we can't go lower. But again, we tend to believe that crypto is going to continue moving up and to the right over the course of time. And we hope that you all join us on the journey as we kind of make our way there. So thank you all for watching. If you did, if you did like this, hit that like button, hit that subscribe button and we'll see all of you in the next live stream.
- [61:17]
A
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