TiVo (4:10)

Yes, good morning, Brennan. Very excited week. Great reactions last week. We had a great time in the chat last week. Good morning to everybody in the chat. Good morning to Neptune. Good morning to Fitz. Good morning to Will. We have Will in the chat as well. And my apologies if I'm coming through a little blurry. I'm on, I'm on family vacation. But that won't stop us from doing another three episodes this week. We just might have a little bit weaker Internet than we're used to. But there's a There's a lot of, yeah, I think a lot of macro stuff to talk about which is going to lead. I know you're going to do a little bring up the charts first to get us warmed up but yeah, excited to talk about some rate cuts hopefully, but probably not this week. And then earnings, the macro earnings kind of going to set the table for the tech sector. But underneath the surface we were just talking about it pre show. Yeah, Ethereum was kissing 3900 just a little kiss one night out, just a little date. We got her home before midnight and then looking, looking for a breakout. I think we're all kind of excited and waiting and, and, and hoping that that's the trend that we're going. So it's going to be exciting episode. The chat's already rocking this morning and let's, let's get after it.

Bryce (5:17)

Yeah, let's do it man. I mean geez, what a freaking couple months it has been since April. It's just been a non stop rocket ship essentially since April. It's been a series of good news, positive fundamentals, positive tech technicals and it just doesn't stop. And over the weekend we got one of the big things that I know that risk on investors were waiting for which is a trade deal with the eu. You know, everyone thought, oh it's never going to happen with Japan, it's not going to happen with eu, they're going to keep getting pushed out. And what we've seen so far is like, you know, the bulk of the trade deals are done, you know. Yeah, there's probably a few left out there. I know people are still looking at China and maybe how that affects the semiconductor markets and how, how that then affects crypto and miners and stuff like that. But beyond that the bulk of the big deals are done and you look at what's happened and so what this means is that a lot of these risk on investors are more comfortable investing because all of these fears that they had in the first half of the year are pretty much going away, right? I mean you look at the fear of inflation, you look at the fear of maybe a new administration and we what kind of policy changes can just happen? You look at the fear of all these trade deals, are they actually going to happen? Are they going to resolve? Is it going to be good, is it going to be bad? You look at just a lot of the different things that have happened, the AI scares, the wars and like just about everything has resolved for arguably the better. And so when you look at the financial markets right now especially risk on assets. People are saying, okay, what really do I have left to fear? And I think the only thing that you could maybe fear at this point is the fact that Jim Cramer is becoming increasingly more bullish on the crypto market.

TiVo (7:01)

Did you just see that? Did you see the text that Bryce threw in the group chat?

Bryce (7:05)

I saw it. I saw it.

TiVo (7:06)

It made me think about it. Oh, God, he's coming. He's coming for the Hood. We. I think we talked about that, like a couple weeks ago when he put it on his park your money. He made a new acronym called PARK or something like that. And it was. It was. Hood was involved in that. It was like Palantir and a couple other, you know, park your money. So. Yeah, no, no, never. Don't say that. Brendan, don't throw in the towel. Listen, hey, opposite take. Listen. It is fun to do the reverse. Kramer. I know it works a lot, but he did name his dog Nvidia, like a decade ago, so, you know, you know, it could. And his dog has since passed RIP to that nice pup, I'm sure. And Nvidia has definitely broken out and is now like the number one stock that everybody wants to own. Right. So he needs. He needs another one. Maybe he's due Spin Zone. I'm going to cut this and send this to Bryce. Spin Zone. Bryce. Maybe he's due Hood to the moon. Hood earnings this week as well. But I totally agree with you. I think the. The tariff thing, we remember, like Liberation day when everything was down the dumps and all these, all these, you know, the. The inflation. Everybody's worried inflation is going to come. Inflation's going to come. It's going to be crazy. It's a doomsday event. We're kind of on the other side of that. And I guess it kind of like goes into our Fed segment that's coming up as well, but the data's not showing that. And, you know, everybody thought it would be the end of the economic free world as we knew it and seems to be not the case. So, yeah, kind of. Kind of a bullish setup with a swing of sentiment like that. If you have been considering futures trading, now might be the time to take a closer look. The futures market has seen increased activity recently in Plus500 futures offers a straightforward entry point. The platform provides access to major instruments including the S P 500, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, natural gas, and other key markets across equity indices like energy, metals, Forex, and crypto. Their interface is designed for accessibility. You can monitor and execute trades from your phone with a hundred dollar minimum deposit. Once you once your account is open, potential trades can be executed in two clicks. For those who prefer to practice first. Plus500 offers an unlimited demo account with.

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Bryce (11:27)

Yeah, it definitely is. And I think a lot of people, mainly the institutional side, got it wrong. And you know, let's just take a look at the charts before we go too deep into the rest of the fundamentals in the news because there's a lot that we're going to talk about there. We're going to spend a lot of time on it. I mean, let's just briefly look at the charts because as we were talking, prices are coming back in a little bit to the downside. And I'm seeing this with both bitcoin and Ethereum in here. So the first thing I want to highlight is we always like to start high level and talk about bitcoin first, but price, for the most part. We're getting a little bit of choppiness now, but for the most part, what we had seen here was a little bit of a bull flag kind of painting on bitcoin. What I mean by this is we saw this nice move to the upside and since then you can pretty clearly tell, hey, we've been seeing lower highs and we were seeing for the most part higher lows with one little wick which was immediately bought up. But there's a little bit of a squeeze that was happening in here and I think you could still argue that it is happening, but a little bit of a squeeze on bitcoin where this range is getting tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter. And when you have this after a move to the upside, you know, we call this typically a bull flag via a pennant, which is what we're getting. So price action is squeezing and getting tighter. And as this squeeze continues, we'll probably see a pretty decent size breakout or breakdown in the not so distant future, like I would imagine, you know, probably this week. So big old squeeze happening here on bitcoin after our most recent all time high of 123k. And so keep an eye on this, it's going to be a pretty important level if we break out to the upside. We could probably see the upper 100 20s, maybe even 130 for Bitcoin. To the downside, we probably come back to our recent all time high closer to maybe like 111, 112,000 and there's some decent support down in there for Ethereum. Again, coming back down into or coming to the downside a little bit. I mean this guy pushed up to 3,900, 3,940, almost, almost 3,950 on Ethereum. So 3,940 bucks. Coming a little bit back to the downside now, about 2 1/2% as it's coming right down to around 3,780. And so both of these, you know, seen a little bit of a bump yesterday, yesterday on that trade deal news. But as we've said before on Ethereum, like this is a massive area of resistance, like arguably one of the biggest ones that I think people need to pay attention to. We've come over here before and what we've seen was that Ethereum fell 30%. We came back up into this level, Ethereum fell 45%. We came back into this level. Ethereum fell, you know, over 60%. And so we have these really sharp rejections here, here and here where Ethereum has just been getting clobbered off of this 3,800 to around $4,000 level. And so we're still up in here and I think that we need to look at this and say, hey, acknowledge the fact this is a big resistance. We've struggled with this a couple of different times and as we move forward we just need to like keep an eye on that. Right. Because that is a huge level of resistance. So I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but keep a close eye on this. For Etherium Solana, another one's getting a little bit of a push. This guy pushed over 200. Now we're retesting its previous high. It's another one. I'm looking at XRP coming off new all time highs. This is a unique one thivo because I saw that their founder Chris Larson had just sold another 200 million or not. Yeah, around $200 million worth of XRP onto the markets as well. And I'm going to go on a little bit of a rant here, right? And here's the deal. I want to probably make some of the XRP army mad. It's all right, let me be. And I want to be transparent, right? We talk about the good of xrp, we talk about the bad of it. I, I own it. I own this thing. I trade it. I've done it since 2017 with XRP. I'm. But I got a bone to pick with them, right? As, as someone who holds it, right, I'm not a fanatic about the fundamentals. The way that Chris Larson and some of the other like top exec team has sold off their XRP has got to be some of the Most careless that I've seen in history. I was doing some research. Chris Larsen is far ahead. It's not even close. He has sold off more of his own token as a founder than any other crypto founder and it's not even close. Billions and billions of dollars of his token and it's so far above what anyone else has done. And so here's the deal. Founders are going to take profits, they're going to sell off equity. That's a normal thing. The part that frustrates me is the quantity that he sells in proportion to the market cap, the fact that he has been in lawsuits over this and the, the real part, and again that's all kind of whatever. The real part that frustrates me is his, his disregard for the actual token holders. When you look at how this is typically done on the traditional financial side, they have to file a, I think it's called like a 10B 5:1 plan or something like that. And what it does is it structures and it says you are going to sell. It announces it first of all publicly saying there's going to be this much sold, it's going to be sold over this period. It's very structured and it's not typically something that impacts retail traders directly. This is done through other methods, OTC desks, typically, not someone going in market smashing onto a retail exchange. The difference here with what Chris Larson is doing is that it's unannounced, it's not predicted, it's spontaneous and it's on to retail investors through these public exchanges. And so when he's market smashing and selling like this onto retail investors, that is something that drastically impacts price more and it also impacts the holders like the average retail person. So I've got a bone to pick here and I think that as we move forward and mature in crypto, it's not like solely going to be an XRP problem. But I think as a general rule of thumb there needs to be a more structured and regulated way to do this similar to how the TRADFI markets have it. Because when you have these events and you look at this and I mean it just getting slapped off the highs. 20% from an event like this. Listen, I'm not saying it can't go higher. I think it's going to hit new all time highs. I think it's going to go higher. This thing has a lot of momentum. I would be shocked if from here we don't see new all time highs. The bone that I have to pick is like the carelessness or maybe just the lack of, of empathy. Is that the right word of, of him going and just smashing onto his own investors? So again, I think it's a little bit careless, but that's my little rant about.

TiVo (18:24)

I, no, I agree with you. And we definitely get chirped. We get chirped a lot from the cheap seats in the, in the comments for, you know, when XRP rockets and, and hits all new time highs and we accelerate it like we celebrated, I think it was a week or two ago. Right. We celebrate. We want everybody to win in the space. It's more just, it's always interesting. And we say this every time how, you know, kind of our average friends that aren't really in the space at all, as soon as they want to talk about crypto, they ask about XRP and like we can't really figure out how that happens. And it's, it's more exactly the reason you explained why we're like, hey, we're not super big fans of the project. Not that you can't go get a W. I mean, look, last week, last week alone in the tradfi markets you could have made you know, a hundred, you know, 101x2 extra money on what it was. Krispy Kreme, GoPro, Kohl's on all these short squeezes. But that doesn't mean that they're long term fundamental plays. So you know, there's always opportunity basically everywhere depending on where and how and when you're, you're making your, your trades or even quote unquote bets. But this one, if you just do a little bit of studying or you listen to Brendan on the rundown here, you're going to find some tidbits of, of the pitfalls of, of a project like this.

Bryce (19:32)

Yeah. And like here's the deal, I think again, they have a lot of, of really good positives about them. You look at the ETF catalyst coming up, it's probably going to be a massive W. You look at their marketing, right? I've always said I think they have the best marketing team in all of crypto. I do. Because like you said, you know, you talk to anybody who's new into crypto, they're going to bring up XRP like they're fantastic at what they do. And again, I'm saying this as a holder, right. I own xrp. I'm not talk, I'm like anti talking my bags here. But I think we need to be critical so that we can see better results for the future. So even as A holder, even as someone who wants to see this, appreciate, I think we can be like self reflective and critical to say, hey, things should change so that the future can be better. Right? So I don't want it to come off as all being bad and I'm just, you know, talking down on XRP or whatever. No, like I want to see things change so that the future can be even better for a project like xrp. Again, as a holder, as someone who owns it, as someone who's actively traded this thing for what, like freaking seven, eight years now alongside a lot of other cryptos, let's just do better. And again, you know, it's happening with xrp, so we address it here. But this is for like all the crypto founders because there have been other people who have done similar stuff, not to the same scale, but I think as crypto becomes more successful, there does need to be a more structured and accountable way to sell off positions as a founder. So anyway, that's my little bit of a rant there. I mean, regardless, here's the deal. It's bouncing off the 20 day moving average. It's bouncing off an area near its previous highs. We're seeing a lot of love here. And just overall the crypto market, I know we've been seeing a little bit of a retracement and stuff, but like, you look at a lot of these coins and they still look relatively healthy. SPX breaking out, hype breaking out, you know, bonk doing, you know, relatively well. You look at Pangu in the run that this thing has had, consolidating after 1000% move to the upside, just everything. So we're seeing a lot of positives here. I don't want to focus too much on the negatives, but I did see that and I had a long conversation with some of my friends and I just had to get it out of my system. I was like, you know, there has to be a better way to do this moving forward. So that's my two cents there. But anyway, yeah, let's, let's move on into some of these other topics. We can get away from the charts and stuff. Maybe the last thing I'll say here is just that bitcoin dominance is, is back on its way down. Right? We saw the bitcoin dominance chart just smash through the 200 day moving average and we rejected it here. What was this last Thursday? So a nice little rejection of that 200 day moving average. And this is a little bit different from what we've seen in the past. My big concern is like, we've only like in this entire bitcoin dominance run that we see, and we see this about every four years. The last time that we saw this was back at the end of December and we peaked our head through here, looked like we were going to get a full breakdown. Then we broke back above and continued to the upside. So long as we don't see a fake out like this. Like, it looks like it's the real deal for altcoin season, which is a good thing.

TiVo (22:43)

Yeah. Something that everybody's kind of been waiting for, been excited for. And like you said, you know, since we've been doing the show for, you know, years now, we've, we've raised the flag a couple times but haven't seen it come to fruition. So it'll be interesting to see if that momentum continues. But kind of, kind of, you said transitioning into kind of some news flow here in the, in the macro Monday, we'll call it big week for the Fed. So the Fed has their new rate decision or next rate decision on Wednesday. The odds of them cutting or slim, slim to none. So it looks like it's going to be another hold. It was very funny last week. There was the, the president, President Trump went to go visit the Fed and kind of went face to face with Jerome Powell. Very, very funny. For those of you who didn't see it, let me see if I can Trump pal, pull it up. They had the, the hard hats on. There's like construction at the Fed. It's, you know, some billion dollar project. And President Trump was visiting after basically berating Powell on, on Twitter for, or X for the last, what, two, three months. So they had this, I won't play the audio here, but it was, it was, it was pretty funny to see them together. This was after they put the, the hard hats off. But they were there together last week. Kind of, kind of a power move in the sense that now he's doing the rate decisions this week, but for the most part people think it will be a hold. And you know, I, I think there's more, there's growing, there's growing calling for lowering rates. Obviously there's a handful of people that want to do it. And so I found a clip from, from the Bond King. This guy, this guy goes on TV every time they cut rates. He's, you know, made his, his money in the bond market. But, you know, the, the, the rate cuts have turned political. And so when you kind of start to get that political noise, you want to Cut through the noise and look for the signal. And I think the most interesting signal you can find is, is these people, long time veterans of Wall street that are starting to call for rate cuts for certain specific reasons and it's not because of their political bias. So I got a short clip here of Rick Reeder. Rick Reeder, the bond king. And let's see what he has to say about the, the possibility of cutting rates, if I can find it. Here we go. Rick Reeder.

Rick Reeder (25:04)

Look at the housing market, particularly what impacts lower income. The people that borrow today are lower income and they're adversely impacted, infected by where these rates are. If we get the rate down, you actually can bring home prices down. You build more houses, you'll actually reduce inflation. So I think it's quite consistent to bring the interest rate down even though the economy is operating at a pretty good level. Where we're going is to a lower level of inflation and I think we can bring it down. Think about inflation break evens today, depending on which part of the curve are 2 and a half to 2 and 3 quarters. So the funds rate, even if you bring it down to three and a quarter, you're still above the rate of inflation. So I think we got plenty of room to drop it even though the economy is operating well.

TiVo (25:45)

And that's, that's definitely something that we've been hearing for about a year now. We, we broke down the specific statistics around this inflation thing and we saw there was two top categories. If you recall, it was car insurance and it was housing. Now car insurance rates, you could lower rates to zero. It really won't affect car insurance. But the housing market is affected by rates. Right? You're going to unlock new supply, you're going to allow people that can't afford to buy, who are renting, go buy, which will then also affect the supply of the rental market, which, you know, will make that more competitive. So I think that's, you know, that's a kind of a thought that's been going around now for about close to a year. I know Tom Lee said the same thing. There's a lot of people on the, on the trading desk that you know, think it's time to lower rates. And then obviously Powell kind of took the, the tariffs into a consideration like, oh, we don't know what's going on. We're going to be data dependent. Data dependent, Data dependent. And you can kind of question that. Data dependent. Like if it was data dependent, why did you cut before the election and not after? Is an Interesting. Take that. You could, you could kind of ask. But now that you know it's data dependent, you're waiting, you're waiting. And these numbers, you know, inflation's still falling and housing is the number one issue. Rates would directly affect that. So people think it's time. I just, I don't think they're going to see it this week. So it'll be interesting to see the reaction on, you know, financial X and crypto X. But we'll see that this Wednesday.

Bryce (27:09)

Yeah, I mean, are they forward looking or backwards looking? You know, they used to be backwards looking. Now all of a sudden they're forward looking. Like it's, it's, it's a hard thing to justify. Right. And we've talked about it before here, but I do think it's a hard thing to justify, to say that they were backward looking and now they're forward looking and they teeter totter on like whatever fits the narrative to. And like, who knows? Who knows? It does feel like it's becoming increasingly more political. And you're right that one of the biggest contributing factors to inflation has been housing and rate cuts would directly affect that. So, you know, regardless, I just, it's hard to believe that we're going to get them. Right now that seems to be the unlikely scenario is that we do get rate cuts. You know, we bring this up and people are going to be like, guys, why are we talking about the housing market and rate cuts? Well, that's because historically when you look at rate cuts, it has a positive impact on the crypto market. So if we do get this, you know, the reason why we want this so bad is, you know. Yes. Could inflation drop and all these other good things happen? Yeah. But directly in the crypto market, like, we would probably have a pretty big rally off of something like that. And historically speaking, we tend to do so when we're looking at this. You know, what it does is it essentially like unlocks liquidity, it brings again more risk on people into the space and it allows the markets to usually go for a little bit of a run. And so we want to see this for the benefit of crypto, for the benefit of a lot of people. And who knows, I mean, time will tell. I think it's hard with, it's hard to know for sure after watching that interview with Trump and Jay Powell. Like it was, it was an uncomfortable watch. Just the whole like the way it went down with like their mannerisms and everything. I was sitting there like kind of like cringing and I Couldn't sit still and it was just hard. I felt uncomfortable watching it behind a screen and my first response was like, reality TV say what?

TiVo (29:07)

Oh, it was reality TV at its finest.

Bryce (29:09)

It was, it was. And I was coming out of that going, are we actually ever going to get rate cuts after something like this? Because they're going back and forth on how much these buildings cost and are they being good with the repairs and like, who knows? But anyway, I digress. It's. It's still going to be a big week for earnings.

TiVo (29:27)

No 100%. And we had Tim, Tim in the chat saying that it was the best clip of the year. It's going to be up there. It was an iconic moment for 2025. And also Caleb, Caleb's looking for 4K ETH, which is exciting. So the chat's active. Thank you to everybody for tuning in. And yeah, so let's continue on to earnings. So I bring this up because I think it is crypto related, to be honest. Big week for earnings. It's, you know, kind of the big week for tech and S&P 500. You've got Apple, you've got Amazon and then specifically kind of what we are going to be looking at is we got Robin Hood, Robin Hood on Wednesday, a fan favorite of the pod, and then Coinbase on Thursday. So you have all this momentum in the markets. Momentum in Coinbase stock, you know, has been making all time highs. Robin Hood's been making all time highs. You've got rate cuts and you've got earnings. So it's a quite the concoction for a mid summer week in the markets. And with everything kind of at the all time highs, I mean, is this something for kind of Robinhood and Coinbase a catalyst if these earnings are so high that it's going to send it higher? Especially Coinbase I think is interesting because it'll be, and I guess this is kind of my take is, is it's their first earnings with the post chat GPT moment for crypto, right? So quote Tom Lee, where you know, the stable coins and Circles rocketing and then all of a sudden everybody's like, oh wait, the Coinbase has a huge percentage of Circle's revenue. Like, oh, now I got to buy Coinbase stock. And it's like, okay, so that's, it's going to be the first earning session with that. So I wonder if Coinbase on their call leans into the partnership with Circle and you know, other plans that they have for maybe a stablecoin strategy and then obviously Robin Hood maybe giving some more insight into their roadmap with the Arbitrum tokenization and just getting some metrics around their whole platform as they're always innovating. And I believe they already announced their next big live event where they announce things is going to be in Vegas in, in the fall. I want to say October. September, October. Okay. Yeah, definitely, definitely coming up soon. And I believe it has something to do with like private banking for kind of private banking for all type of things. So that probably has something to do with some type of in house stablecoin to be able to, you know, know, earn yield on your sitting cash. So I think it's a very exciting time for obviously for crypto, for companies that are involved in crypto, whether it's a Robin Hood Coinbase or obviously these treasury companies, it's something worth noting. Even though it's not Pengu or you know, Arbitrum or you know, coins specifically like Brendan's Tang. It's kind of, that's what we do here. We're trying to give you that whole crypto picture. And so I don't, I don't think you can ignore a week like this for earnings. Specifically with Robinhood and Coinbase.

Bryce (32:16)

Yeah, you know, I don't think you can ignore it either. They've obviously both been huge players and huge advocates of crypto. You know, you look at all the stuff that Coinbase has done just with trading, you look at what Robinhood has done with trading, you look at Coinbase with their base layer 2 on Ethereum, you look at Robinhood now also going to be creating their own layer two on, on Arbitrum and tokenizing stocks and the public and private equity markets and they both clearly play a huge role in where crypto is at these days. So yeah, you know, going to be a big week for earnings. I would imagine that as the crypto market does good, they do as well. And yeah, you know, bigger picture is I like what they're doing and how they're supporting crypto and hopefully they go and they crush earnings this week and if they do, I think it just reflects the current state of the crypto market. So I will tell before, before we.

TiVo (33:08)

Move on, we got Fitz, Fitz in the chat, long time listener, long time YouTuber, long time chatter. Just had a question about a staking on Ethereum because obviously with Robin Hood, I'm sorry, staking on Robin Hood, they announced Ethereum Solana and he was wondering is it, is it safe to do so obviously fits. We tee that up with it's not personal financial advice for you. You know, you got to do your own research, make your own decisions. But I. I personally feel confident doing a little bit of staking on. On Robinhood. I don't think, you know, you got to take into effect not your keys, not your crypto, and then also, you know, spread it out a little bit. Like, I wouldn't put all of anything on one exchange or one cold wallet, right? So, you know, you might want to spread it around. But I think, you know, Robinhood's made a lot of steps and a lot of strides to kind of come back from that black eye that they had with the Gamestop saga. And we've covered that so many times before, if you're interested on our takes. I know I did it with you, I've done it with Joe and Brian, and I think even Bryce has had some takes on it. So not something we're going to rehash right now, but I. I personally do feel confident to participate in their staking program. It just wouldn't be, you know, my whole entire bags of Solana Ethereum.

Bryce (34:18)

No, I think it's a good point. You know, I take the same stance that I don't like to have all my eggs in one basket. And listen, if you tuned in to half the episodes that we make for the these crypto rundowns, it's pretty evident. Me and TiVo, we like Robinhood. We've had them on the podcast. We talk about them a lot. I think they're doing a lot of good. Like, you know, I think both of us own quite a bit of their. Of their shares and stuff. We want to be transparent, but it's because we really do like the platform, but we also tend to, like, keep it real. And that's the thing. I saw that Tim was saying, man, I feel at home. Brendan's in here and he's wailing on. On XRP when I'm coming in. And it's true. But, you know, what we like to do over here is just keep it as real as possible, right? If we own it. If we don't own it, you could go back and there's clips and I'm sure tweets of me just tearing apart Robinhood for stuff that they've done in the past. Right? No holds barred. At one point, I was so adamantly against, like, some of the stuff that they were doing. And you could say the same with, like, xrp. Look at the past couple of weeks, we've been hyping it up, talking about how bullish it is, how they're doing all these great decisions, one thing happens. Well, just because I own it and just because they had made some good decisions, am I going to, like, ignore some of the stuff that is stupid now? You know, and I think that's why a lot of you tune in here, is that, you know, we're biased in the sense that the whole crypto market is going to be up and to the right. The whole crypto market is going to do good, but we also keep it real because we want all of you to be informed of, like, the good, the bad, everything in between. And regardless of bias, like, and regardless of whether we own it or what, like, we're going to tell you the truth, whether it is good or bad or whatever's happening. And so that's something that we try to, you know, really pride ourselves in is talking about, like, the good, the bad and the ugly. But, yeah, I mean, when you look at where we're at right now, you know, still, again, big picture is good, but we want to talk about everything.

TiVo (36:13)

Yeah. And we've had plenty of times over the years where it was quite boring and sad. End to the downside, right. We were here through, you know, all the ups and downs and even the sideways stuff we've talked about before this even last breakout, we had an episode where I said, I don't want to, I don't want to say this, but I have to. I'm bored with 100K. Yeah, that was, you know, about six, seven, eight weeks ago now. And look, now, now we're in our new, our new next chapter. But, you know, as much as we want it to be up, only it won't be that. And we'll be here, yeah, to face the music when we're right, when we're wrong, or when we're bored, you know, we're here to just give you the news as it is. And those, those times, we've said it multiple times before is, you know, when it's not super exciting, that that's kind of the time to tune into these shows because that's where you get the real alpha that nobody else is really listening to. That's when you get the Pengu eight weeks ago. That's when you get the Ethereum narrative that we called eight weeks ago and, and look where we are now. Now it's the talk of, talk of the town. You know, you got everybody asking, you know, oh, Ethereum's the next, you know, thing. 10k, 15k Ethereum. It's like, well, if you listen to our show eight, nine weeks ago, we, we didn't necessarily tell you those price targets per se, but we told you that that narrative was coming, it was bubbling under the surface.

Bryce (37:24)

Yeah, 100%, man. And like just going back to this idea, you know, we've said, we've had, we've gone back and forth on Solana, we've gone back and forth on Ethereum too. There was a time where like Ethereum was underperforming. When we talked about this last week and we're like, I think you came up and you're like, what's the deal, guys? What's the deal with Ethereum? A couple of months ago I put.

TiVo (37:43)

It in the group chat. I put in the group chat, like under, you know, when it broke, when it broke 2K, I was like, like, fellas. I was like, fellas, are we still believers? And everybody said, we're going down with this ship. And I was like, okay, just making sure. Didn't want to be the only one left on the boat. But I had to ask the question.

Bryce (38:00)

Yeah, exactly. So again, you know, we say all this because regardless of what project it is, regardless of where we're at in the market cycle, like there was times where Ethereum wasn't doing good things, there's times where Solana wasn't doing good things, there's times where Robinhood wasn't doing good things, there's times where XRP isn't doing good things. And we just bring it to you how it is in the moment. Right. And so it's not this permanent negative stance, but we just like to call how we see it. And again, bigger picture. We think the whole crypto market and just about everything associated with it is, is going to do pretty well. And you know, this week, yes, that includes XRP looking out, zooming out. I think it's going to do well, I think it's going to hit new all time highs. But anyway, I brought this up because I wanted to tie it up into our point of like, hey, you know, we've said things about Ethereum in the past. We've obviously switched our stance on this as we've gone back and forth, but Ethereum is just crushing it at the moment. Absolutely crushing it. And what we've seen here is that their ETF volume and inflows have skyrocketed to just ridiculous levels. And I think TiVo sharing it. Yeah. So you can see right there in the top left the Ethereum spot volumes. And that's what in the last 12 months. I mean look at it, it's gone, it's gone completely parabolic. Completely parabolic in the last month or so here. And so you measure it and its volumes are doing like double what it was previous, double, triple, quadruple what it was previously doing in the first half of this year and most of last year. So you know, Ethereum's crushing it. And if you scroll down just a little bit one more, there's this Ethereum spot ETF flows on the left side and again this as well, just parabolic in terms of what we've seen. And if you go to the last like three months, which there's a little button for it right below the.

TiVo (39:53)

Sorry, three months. Yeah, I got you, I got you. Sorry, I was scrolling down. There we go.

Bryce (39:58)

Yeah, I mean look at this performance. I mean we were going from seeing like, oh, hey, there's some days of like 100, 200 million in inflows and now we're seeing days where there's like 5, 6, 700 million in inflows. And the statistic that came with this is that I had a number for this. But yeah, so ethereum products hit 7.8 billion in year to date inflows. And we talked about this a little bit last week, but this surpasses the entirety of what they did in 2024. So what we've seen here is just again this massive, massive increase in inflows. And I think last week was the second biggest week for Ethereum ETF inflows at just around 1.8, 1.9 billion.

TiVo (40:50)

Yeah, and it's setting records too. I think we talked about that last week. I did with Brian and Joe at the top of their show was, you know, Ethereum's the third fastest ETF to a certain number. The Bitcoin ETF is number one. And these, these, these products, as much as it was exciting when they were launched, I think even, even the Bitcoin etf obviously there's so much hype when that went live. There was kind of a little bit of maybe quote unquote underwhelming statistics around it. And the price action, especially after the Bitcoin etf, it was like a little bit of a sell the news event which was a great time to buy the dip. It was a great time to buy. I think MicroStrategy did a huge sell off too on this theory that everybody was going to sell MicroStrategy to go into the ETFs and you know. Yeah, it just takes time and we've covered that over the years. It's like, you know, these huge money makers with billions and trillions of dollars under asset, they can't, they can't go buy these Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs right off the jump, right when they're live. Right. They need the statistics over six months a year to study these products before they can offer them to their clientele. And so since that time period has now elapsed, you're hearing more and more people and you're seeing more and more funds start to start to flow to them. So, yeah, overall, just something you love to see. I think the Ethereum staking, the Ethereum ETF staking is something we've been talking about. Right. With Solana as well, is, is something that we're hoping goes mainstream and then unlocks a lot more capital as well. So, you know, we'll keep tracking it, but it's definitely a good time. Glad you put it on the sheet to, to bring it back up again because, you know, as you're staring at that chart again, that's the three month, let's go to the 12 month. And I, I think that's, you know, they haven't even been around for about 12 months. So you can see, you can see that all that selling pressure on the left side there. Right, right when it goes live, all the old, you know, accumulation from all those funds that went into the etf, a lot of selling and then absolutely nothing here. A little bit of excitement that was around. Yeah, the election, the, the end of the year run we had, and then absolutely nothing. Nothing here. And, and you're starting to see it pick back up. Yeah, but what do you think about this, Brett, now that we're staring this, now we're staring this question for you, now that you're seeing this, a lot of momentum on the right side of the chart there, but not like the levels we saw in November and December for inflows. So what, you know, is that anything, do you take away anything from that or just, just lines on a chart?

Bryce (43:14)

No. Yeah, I think that was like peak, peak cycle, peak hype was around December. We were coming off the election stuff and all these new revolutionary ideas of how about how the government was going to adopt it, we were going to ease regulation and prices were skyrocketing, the stock market was skyrocketing. It was just like the peak of the hype cycle before the crash happened. And I think that that's what that represented. And now it's interesting because we're coming out of that, right? We had the crash already so the likelihood that we're going to have another crash like that is pretty unlikely at this point, right? You look at how often the markets crash and in crypto it's like oh you know, every like four years or so. You look at the tradfi markets, I think it's even like less often than that when you see like a pullback of like 30 plus percent. So I think that now what we're doing is we're back at this same level but the crash just happened. So I think that what that, that what that does is it really smooths and paves the road ahead and say like yeah, and we're just in a good spot. So that's what I read from this. I think that we can go higher. I think that we are going to go higher. I think that you know, people have talked about in the chat, you know, oh, are we going to hit 3k, 4k, 5k? I think someone at the beginning said 10k seems bearish. I think 10k is like a realistic goal for Ethereum now. And I'm not saying that this is going to happen by the end of this month or anything like that's something that's going to take a little bit more time. But you know I think this, this argument of can eat hit 4 and 5k can can it get back to the all time highs just below 5k? To me I think that that is a likelihood with and this kind of ties into some of these other points that we're probably going to talk about. But like all these, these treasury companies, TiVo, they're not slowing down and there's more of them and we've talked about how they're coming out of the woodworks and they're adopting and they're buying and you know, sharply just bought another almost 300 million in ETH. Now they have around 438000 Ethereum in their, in their treasury. I believe that's a whole ton of freaking money. You have Meta Planet. Oh yeah. Here we'll put it on the screen for everyone. And you look at this and they're just buying and buying and buying and this is constantly happening. On the Ethereum side you have the Ether machine, you have Sharplink, you have Bitmine with Tom Lee and then on the bitcoin side obviously you have Strategy and Michael Saylor, you have Meta Planet, you have all these other ones and Even the Bitcoin ETFs are accumulating in mass and so Meta Planet just added another 92 and a half million worth of bitcoin, or millions, sorry, worth of bitcoin. And they're pushing their holdings up to around $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. And so these treasury companies are buying and buying and buying. The ETFs are very clearly buying, retail traders are buying, governments are adopting. We have our crypto report coming out.

TiVo (46:17)

I think in, I think Wednesday tomorrow, the Fed.

Bryce (46:23)

Yeah, yeah, I was actually surprised we, we, we forgot to include that on the.

TiVo (46:29)

I watched it, I mentioned it, we mentioned it last week, we mentioned it last week. Yeah, we got to keep an eye out for that. But yeah, it's something we will be definitely be covering for Thursday's show and, and we'll see what time it comes out on Wednesday. Maybe Brian Joe can touch on it. But yeah, we'll definitely have a full report of what, what goes out Thursday.

Bryce (46:46)

Yeah, spot on, man. And so, you know, the big takeaway here is that again, lots of adoption, big picture is very positive for the entire crypto market. And we're at this point where it's like, you know, what's really going to be able to drag us down significantly. Right. You know, we're going to have these ups and downs, we're going to have pullbacks. That's natural. And crypto is historically more volatile than I think the traditional markets that people are more used to. So we're going to have some volatile pullbacks. But like what is really going to be able to like knock us off our, our feet and you know, I'm just not sure. I mean, you found an article, TiVo, I think, talking about Galaxy, right. And how they were dumping and I mean it barely affected things.

TiVo (47:33)

Yeah, exactly. And actually it's a two parter here. So I posted, I randomly posted a. Well not randomly. I'm always posting like cool videos and stuff on our ex. If people don't follow us, make sure you follow us@Crypto101 podcast. But last week I posted a video of Mike, Mike Novogratz and he was, you know, he did a segment, I think it was CNBC and you know, he called for $150,000 Bitcoin this year. So I posted and it gets a little interaction, the Galaxy. You know, some people are getting bowled up on Galaxy stock now that it's traded on the New York Stock Exchange. So there's some bull posting for Galaxy. And then right after I posted it, a couple hours later that evening it was reported that Galaxy actually just dumped $9 billion worth of Bitcoin. And, and we saw that evening, you know, bitcoin fall off a little bit, but it went down 5%. And again, you can't totally attribute that to just Galaxy. But, you know, the news comes out, bitcoin goes down 5% and then the market absolutely gobbles up the dip and just, you know, rises back up to where it was. And so, you know, like you said, what's going to bring us down? Well, we just had an absolute, you know, dump on the market of $9 billion and, and the market just gobbled it up. And then, so then that post that I had started, people just started being like, oh, he's shilling bitcoin and selling. He's shilling bitcoin and selling. You know, disgusting behavior from, from Galaxy for, you know, telling not. He didn't, he didn't say, go buy bitcoin. He said his price target. Price target's 150k. Why are you selling? Everybody's like, why are you selling? Why are you selling? I was like, well, I put in the rundown here and then I posted this on X next ago. Everybody's mad because Galaxy dumped BTC last night. It's like, if you listen to the full interview, he told you, you know, what he really thinks is going to outperform and it's eth. So let's listen to his full take so you get the full story.

Mike Novogratz (49:26)

What do you make of some of the other coins? So ether, we just had somebody on this week putting together the equivalent of a. An ether micro strategy of sorts in terms of a leveraged debt that other people are going to buy into. Also, everything's getting tokenized. We've talked about stablecoins, right? Now, if you could buy ether or bitcoin, which do you buy? I own both. Listen, ether's caught up a lot. It feels like if eth takes out 4000, it goes into price discovery. And so we feel kind of destined to at least knock on the 4000 ceiling a few times. The narrative of ether is really powerful and the market was really short. And now we have not, not just, you know, one, we have two major eth, treasury companies and another one coming, you know, and they're raising capital every day and buying ether. And so there's not a lot of supply of eth. And so I, I think ETH probably has a chance to outperform bitcoin in the next three to six months.

TiVo (50:22)

So. So there you have it right there, right? So you go and see the selling of bitcoin but that same guy is telling you that he thinks Ethereum is going to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. So again, is Galaxy going and buying a bunch of ETH right now? Obviously they have a big moon bag of it. Maybe time will tell, maybe we'll see some purchases. Or maybe it's just portfolio management. Right. You know, Galaxy's been the game for so long that maybe this was a price target to take off some exposure and let the Ethereum exposure run. But I just thought it was cool. It was cool interaction on the X timeline that got a ton, a ton of interaction. My first one. But I thought the full story of, of Galaxy's take there was to understand that you know, they, they think for the next, the rest of the year at least that Ethereum is the lead bull here.

Bryce (51:09)

Yeah, I mean it's hard not to be bullish on Ethereum. You look at all the topics that we talked about, you look at the charts. I agree with them. You know, I think again we break 4k and we go into an arguable price discovery mode for Ethereum that is the big resistance zone to be and that's where all eyes, you know, even his, right, you know, he's super successful, super wealthy. We're talking about like unfathomable levels of money and management and he's saying the same thing. So I agree with them. I think we're aligned. And it's hard to not believe that Ethereum has a bit of catch up to do. And when you, no matter how you look at it, right, you know, you look at Bitcoin dominance, you look at eth btc, you measure Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin in terms of price and percent and it does seem undervalued especially with all the satisfaction adoption that we're getting.

TiVo (52:01)

Yeah, couldn't agree more. We have some, some price targets from the chat. We've got Tim, Tim coming in at 7,500 for end of year but he's hoping he's low. He's hoping he's low dnt nft 12k. Fitz says 10k by end of year and as Will said earlier, 10k is now bearish. It's what the bears are saying. So we, we'll have to see but we're gonna, we're gonna document the journey for sure the entire rest of the year. So excited about it. I think it's as we kind of come down here and wrap up. I'm sorry if anybody can hear that there's a Crying child in the background. But that's what family vacations are for. I'll try and edit that out. If Brendan's saying no. Okay, you guys can't hear it. That's good. Shout out to sure microphones friends of the pod for keeping us, keeping us clean audio the time we do this every once in a while, Brendan, we like to pull our, you know, kind of the same tricks out of the bag every month or so. We revisit, you know, whether It's Google Trends, M2 money supply and we haven't checked out the fear and greed index in a while. So let's, let's pull up our crypto Fear greed index. We're sitting, I've seen a couple of them. There's like 72 which is just a little bit of greed. This one's 67 which is greed. But not extreme greed. Not extreme greed. Our high for the year was back in November at 88. We're at 67 and we're at all time highs, which I think overall is encouraging and makes sense for the market. Right? You have some friends, some friends, some cousins starting to come in and ask about Ethereum. You know, they need to put their, put their beer money into Ethereum so they can go make sure they have a fun year in college. So you're getting a little bit of bull posting from Ethereum but you're not getting that. I'm not getting overwhelmed with text messages from friends and family yet about crypto even though you know, Bitcoin's at 120, which I find hilarious and, and obviously Ethereum is making big moves. So you're starting to hear it on the news, right? This is what we like to do. We say okay, the A block, the B block, starting to get that crypto talk back. The bitcoins, the Ethereums, I think that is phase one that makes sense for that 67 to 75 greed. And then once you start getting to the 80s, in the high 80s, that's when your friends and family are going to start calling and asking about it. So I do agree with the 67 number here. What about you?

Bryce (54:16)

Yeah, I would too. You know, we're just barely in that green category coming out of a little bit of neutrality. And when you look at like where we're at, especially in the bigger picture, you know, we're not in extreme greed, we're not extremely overextended despite prices being you know, pretty close to all time highs. And I think what that does is that paints the picture of like you look at in previous runs when we've been coming from a neutral zone into a greedy zone, that typically means that again, I think that there's more upside potential. You know, we're going to have those ups and downs, we're going to have retracements, we're going to have pullbacks. But going back to the big picture that we always like to talk about, it does appear that with not just Bitcoin, Ethereum, with a lot of these cryptos, there just is more upside potential on the way. And one of the big questions that people have had here TiVo is like, well, we're heading into this area right around a year and a half after the having how much further can we really go? And we're not quite there yet. Right. You know, the idea is that we probably top out around the fall to winterish area. But you know, regardless of that, with where we're at now, you know, I do think that there's, there's the potential for some more upside.

TiVo (55:30)

Yeah, couldn't agree more. And then there's people with takes kind of like Matt Hogan has shared over the year. Plus now I think it's been a take of his is the four year cycle could, could be over with all this institutional adoption and the ETFs, people that are, you know, coming in for long and strong holds. Could this end that? You know, four years? Obviously there's tons of macro issues that go into whatever cycle, but is it going to end that mass dump for the crypto markets? Because you know, market caps are now so high and the institutional monies here and the, the products that are there for the buy and hold for the long term, it's, it's something to consider as well, but nobody knows. And that, that's kind of why we're here is, is to, you know, go over this stuff with everybody each week and just educate people but also learn as well along the way. And that's what we do together each week. And it's fun. I will say that yesterday. So this week I'm traveling obviously I'm at the family vacation at the beach house. I'm in New Jersey, Brandon. Jersey. Used to live in Hoboken. Used to, used to live in New York City. So I love, you know, New York City pizza. Best in the world. And then the bagels, Brendan, the bagels for New Jersey, New York, the best. So before I came down I had to go get a bunch of bagels and I was just sitting there yesterday and I made this bacon, egg and cheese And I mean, I just, I, at first you might think related, I'm 100% sure. I'm 100% sure. I bought the bagel. I bought the bagel. And you might be looking at this and you're like, oh, TiVo, why is this bagel on the crypto rundown? And I think that this bagel, this bagel sandwich might be so good and so perfect that it could propel us to do all time highs this week. You heard me, this week. I think we, we could break 4k on Ethereum this week just because of this bagel sandwich. It was literally one of the best things I've ever eaten. It was magical.

Bryce (57:19)

Well, yeah, I mean, I responded to your tweet and I said I might have to go to do it in a market smash of 100 bitcoin. And you challenged me and you said like, man with the ratio, I think this is a 200 BTC market smash. And I, I. Unbelievable.

TiVo (57:35)

Unbelievable. That seasoning around that, the, the rim back side of that bagel, the crispiness of the bacon, the eggs, the perfect ratio of Sriracha sauce. That is, that's a bagel sandwich. And that, that is, I, I'll be honest, that's a bagel sandwich that you can only get in the state of New Jersey with a quality bagel like that.

Bryce (57:53)

Yeah, well, I mean, I'm booking a flight. I'll see you here in a few hours after the run.

TiVo (57:59)

Shout out. Shout out to Tim. Shout out to Tim. He says this seems like the Solana commercial moment. Remember we put the Solana commercial moment on the chart for Solana. He thinks this is, this is a, a generational bottom for the crypto market. The bagel that propelled us to new all time highs. Well, let's be honest, we put it on the rundown. It is a. We now have receipts. So we have receipts for the crypto. I'm going to call it the crypto bagel. And let's see how the market does in the next week or so. And it might become a thing. It might become a thing. We'll have to see.

Bryce (58:32)

I mean, I can put it on my chart, on my Solana chart. I still have a giant arrow that says the Solana ad and it marked the bottom. I still have it on my chart to this day.

TiVo (58:41)

I know, I know, I know. Can you pull it up? Would it take a lot to pull it up or.

Bryce (58:45)

No, no, no, no, not a lot at all. Give me, give me a couple seconds here and I'll, I'll Go find it. I might.

TiVo (58:52)

Well, just to tee it up, Just to tee up the listeners. So there was. I can't even remember the ad. It was like kind of a cheesy ad, right? So Solana puts out this cheesy ad on their socials and everybody shared it and was kind of, kind of on it for better, better or worse words to use. And you know, is when there was a downdraft in the market. And I just remember jokingly saying to Brendan, like, this might be the bottom for Solana. This might be that. We might have to put this on the chart. So as you can see here as he's pulling it up, we put the, the Solana ad and if you kind of go in the, you know, on the L or the O, the ella, the first A would be the middle there. Like that was the. Very, very, very close to the bottom. Do you have an exact day that we did it or is it just a general location?

Bryce (59:37)

I don't have the exact day. The. Let me see if I can find out when it was, but I think it was like the very end of March, if I remember correctly. It was like mid to end of March. So it was like right around when price was trading at, I think like 120 bucks. So it was like somewhere like right around, in, in here, I think.

TiVo (60:02)

And so it's like March, March 18, March 18 was an article was written.

Bryce (60:07)

About it right here at 123 bucks, essentially. And it's like, you know, was it the bottom. No, not the exact bottom, but was it really close to the bottom? Yeah, it was. And you look at us going now from 120 bucks up to, you know, 190 bucks or 200 bucks. And yeah.

TiVo (60:29)

Tim wants, Tim wants a bagel emoji on the, the Ethereum chart now. So we'll, we'll see. We have it. We have a document. I don't want you to do that if it's going to confuse the people for the amazing coaching calls you do and obviously your trading course, which gets access to you every week and just, just overall, if there's people still listening, you know, we do this free multiple times a week because we love it and want to be with you guys. But also, you know, check out the show notes below for some, you know, information about our community and, and support the program just like you do. If you are in the community, we thank you. And if not, you know, like subscribe and, and we, we love having you on the, the bagel call. Oh, that's great. That's so funny. So we'll, we'll see the bagel. Will the bagel send us to the moon? We'll, we'll have to. We'll have to see. We'll see how long that the Bryce Paul. The Bryce Paul call is. Is probably a generational bottom that one might never leave the chart. But yeah, if the bagel call doesn't work out and say a week or two, we might have to take that off the chart. But for now. Excited to watch it. Excited to watch it.

Bryce (61:32)

Yeah. Well, Time will tell, TiVo. Time will tell.

TiVo (61:36)

Time.

Bryce (61:36)

Uh, man. In the meantime, we appreciate everyone for coming in here, listen to us yap and talk about the crypto markets and banter back and forth. Uh, again, regardless of what's happening here, we want to bring everything to all of you so that you understand the good, the bad, the ugly, everything that's happening in between, and you get it all completely for free in and typically in under an hour, which we're holding true to today, as the saying goes. But yeah, no, we appreciate everyone coming in here. Thank you all for joining us. We really do appreciate the active chat box and everyone talking and leaving comments and asking us questions and just having a good time with us. And to all the listeners who are watching this back, which we know the, the bulk of you watch this back at a later point. We appreciate all of you as well. So stay tuned everyone. We got a lot more content coming your way this week. It's going to be action packed and we'll see all of you at the same time, same place on Thursday for another crypto rundown.

TiVo (62:45)

All right, Crypt Nation fam.

Brendan (62:46)

Let's pause for one second and talk.

TiVo (62:48)

About an important issue going on right.

Brendan (62:49)

Now, and that's sim swap attacks. SIM swap attacks are becoming a serious threat, especially in crypto. And if someone gets control of your phone number, they can access your bank accounts, your exchanges, emails and even your private messages. That's why the Crypto 101 podcast is partnered with Afani. It's America's most secure mobile service, offering a guaranteed protection against SIM swaps with added privacy. Since launching, not one single Afani user has ever been SIM swapped. And for some reason, if it ever does happen, you're backed by up to $5 million in insurance against financial losses. This is literally why we chose to partner with them. It is our first favorite thing about Afani is the insurance policy of up to $5 million. If it does happen to you, Afani runs on either AT&T or the Verizon network and you get to choose which one. There are no contracts and it is super easy and seamless to sign up.

TiVo (63:37)

You also get a 60 day money.

Brendan (63:39)

Back guarantee so there's zero risk in trying it out right now for our listeners. You get $99 off when you sign up at afani.com crypto101. That's afoni.com/crypto101 or check the show notes below for a link. These days your phone number is probably more valuable than your Social Security number, so make sure it's protected with Afonny.

Ali Jackson (64:00)

If you are a podcast host, listen up. This one's for you. My name is Ali Jackson. I'm the host of Finding Mr. Height, a dating and relationship podcast that I've been doing for four years now, sharing my positive and practical approach to dating that's built on my own life experience. And I wanted to share another experience that I've had, my secret behind monetizing my show. It's called Red Circle and I was just telling my colleague about how much I love their platform. With Red Circle, not only am I getting a seamless hosting experience, but I also love the support I receive in ad sales. It's not just typical ad sales either. It's targeted opportunities based on my show and my life. And the platform is super simple. You just set your preferences and Red Circle matches you with sponsors that align with your show. You can vet every opportunity and their platform gives you great analytics. More recently too, my Red Circle team has brought me opportunities outside of my podcast on social media to really augment the podcast partnerships. Bring them full circle. I just can't recommend them enough. If you want to give it a try, go to Redcircle to get your free trial. That's redcircle.com for a free trial.