← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign.
- [00:07]
Brendan
Welcome back, everyone, to the crypto rundown. We're excited to be here. Hope everyone's having a great day. Hope everyone's having a great start to their week. And we got a lot to talk about. So to kick things off, we want to check about this bitcoin rise that we've seen here in recent days. Bitcoin has risen about 16% to the upside, about 12%, or, excuse me, about $12,000 upwards. And from this, altcoins are rallying right behind it. Now, we're seeing a lot of institutional players come in here, buy up bitcoin. We want to go over all the big names, but it wouldn't be a complete list without Mr. Michael Saylor. So we're going to talk about what's happening on the institutional front, we're going to talk about what's happening on the retail front. But arguably the most important point that we want to talk about in this week's rundown is what's happening with bitcoin's supply. Because we are looking at it and it's shrinking. It has been shrinking for a long time and it's no secret that when supply shrinks and demand grows, well, that asset tends to appreciate over the long term. So, lot to talk about here. TiVo. I'm excited about it. How are you feeling over on your end?
- [01:13]
TiVo
Yeah, an exciting week, as always in the crypto markets, as we like to say. And more interesting than anything is, is the focus on bitcoin here for this episode and comparing it. Like, obviously we've been talking about the macro a lot over the last two to three episodes, especially with the breaking news stuff. But now, as that stuff's digesting in the markets as a whole, it's really fascinating to compare bitcoin to the S P500. The volatility around it and, and just the performance of bitcoin and the interest in it still being high and confidence is high around it in the space. So really, really bitcoin focused episode, but really interesting to really break down all the facts and, and information that we've gathered around it this week. So I'm excited to talk about it. I think it'll be a good one.
- [02:00]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, let's just kick things off with what's happening over on this price action. At the time of writing our normal outline, we were looking at it and say, man, a 16% recovery from bottom to top, about $12,000 back upwards. That's pretty good. And, you know, now we're coming back in the morning after and we're seeing a little bit of a sell off. I saw that there was some FUD around what's happening in the macroeconomic landscape. Some stuff having to do with semiconductors, specifically ones like AMD and Nvidia. And you know, that's affecting all of the risk on markets, which is why we're starting to see a little bit of a sell off. But here we are, you know, we have NASDAQ red 2% on the day, S&P right over 1%. And Bitcoin is sitting nice and pretty. It's green about a half a percent on the day. Again, holding value. And this has been a repeat theme that we've been going over for weeks and weeks and weeks now. Just saying, hey, the crypto market, specifically bitcoin, has been outperforming. It has been holding value well. And we're continuing to see that. So let's go ahead and throw up a quick chart here. We'll look at what's actually happening on the price action of bitcoin before we get too deep into everything else. But when we look at this, there's a couple of things I want everyone to understand. Number one, bitcoin is at a massive level of resistance. And you're going to look at that and hear that at face value and say, well, that sounds a little bit scary. That doesn't really sound like a good thing. But let me explain why. It very well could be the mission.
- [03:31]
TiVo
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- [04:31]
Brendan
So if we look at this again, this is bitcoin holding value. I said it was green, about half a percent on the day over here, this is what we are looking at. So when Bitcoin is holding value again kind of holding this support level for the last five or so days, we're just not seeing the same thing with the tradfi indices. You know, over the past couple of days they've been bleeding back towards the downside. We saw that, you know, on Monday, Tuesday, now Wednesday, they're falling. You know, they're, they're red on red on red. When we go and we look over here back at Bitcoin, this is where we see bitcoin again holding value. Is it skyrocketing to the upside? No. But at a time when we're seeing a lot of fear in selling off of risk on assets and bitcoin is holding value, that's a really good and reassuring thing to see. So I like the fact that bitcoin is holding in here. We're not seeing the kind of red on red on red like we've seen with NASDAQ and the S and P. We see bitcoin holding despite all of the FUD that's happening over on the tradfi side. So that's point number one. Point number two is that if we look at this a little bit differently, we can see that it has this massive resistance area that we were talking about. And this is twofold. Number one, we have this falling resistance line right in here, right. If we delete everything else off, we just look at this resistance. We can see very clearly that bitcoin has kind of come up here ever since the all time high and rejected and rejected and rejected just time and time again, all the way down to the current point. The other thing that we've seen is that all of the moving averages are sitting right in here. We have the 20, the 50 and the 200 day moving averages floating around this area. Now the 200 is the yellow line, the 50 is this pink or red line, and the 20 day moving average is the blue line. So when we have all of these kind of piled up on top of one another, we're looking at this and saying, hey, well, we've actually struggled to break especially the 200 and the 50 day moving averages really ever since the breakdown of both of these levels, you know, sure, we've kind of peaked our head a little bit above with some wicks. Even the 200, we peaked our head above a little bit. But for the most part we're consolidating below both the 200 and the 50 day moving averages here. So we're coming up into this big old resistance line, right? This has been something that has lasted since January of this year. Since the all time high. It has been one of the big things keeping bitcoin's price down. On top of that we have the next two levels, which is the 250 day moving average sitting right at this level as well. So if we go and we replot some of these horizontal areas that I wanted to take a look at and we go and we look at this, if we can break out here, I think bitcoin is a very clear shot back towards, you know, the low 90s, if not $100,000, right. We're looking at this saying, hey, if we can break out here, this is a big level. I think bitcoin has about a 10 to 15% move in either direction. So if we can break out here, we could easily move 10% back to the low 90s even I would say closer to 17% back to 100k. And I'd say that that is very, very much on the table if we can break out of the zone here. Now similarly, if we break down here, we could easily have maybe a 10 to 15% move to the downside that bring us back below $80,000 back towards the mid to low 70s. And this is where we can see that bitcoin has already been finding support from this previous all time high from last year's consolidation zone. This is where we've already bounced off of. So the good news here is that hey, if we do sell off, you know, we're not ruling it out. We're going to say, hey, this is a pretty choppy market. There's all sorts of news, all sorts of fud that's coming out. You just never know what's going to happen. So I'm not going to say, hey, it's impossible for us to go lower. But what I am looking at is saying, hey, in these volatile moves, which I think everyone's expecting, that there's going to be more volatility, there's going to be red days, there's going to be green days, there's going to be, you know, some pretty sizable moves in both directions. However, I think that we resolve to the upside, right? All things said and done, I think that we are going to start grinding back towards the upside again. Maybe we make one more lower low, maybe we Kind of test this area again. I wouldn't say it's impossible given the current volatility, but I think that it's on these sell offs that I'm really, really looking to find the buying opportunities to go long to be bullish. And that's a little bit of a pivot from what I've said here in recent months where I've been saying, hey, I'm focused on protecting capital, I'm focused on, you know, hedging against some of these downside possibilities. And I am looking at this, you know, in some of these sell offs to be a little bit more risk on in my own approach. So I'm hoping bitcoin can break out of this big resistance area again. I'm not trying to get levered up to the max here because we are at resistance, right. So I don't want to get too, too much exposure. But off of any kind of sell offs that we do get, I'm just looking at this as a net positive, saying, hey, I think, I think bitcoin can go positive. And for those end of year numbers as we've kind of talked about, I still think it's very, very possible for bitcoin to see new all time highs by the end of this year. And I really don't think that that's a huge ask either because if we see that it's only about a 30% move to the upside and you know, in terms of bitcoin and the volatility that we're used to, you know, a 30% move isn't anything too, too crazy, especially when we see it holding value relatively well. So, you know, on the technicals over here, TiVo, I like this. You know, we talked about that kind of 16 rise that we saw. This is what that looked like. We bounced off of just above 74K and we rose up to around 86K. So we essentially rose, you know, $12,000 from 74,000 to $86,000 back to the upside. And that's a pretty aggressive move. And from the bottom over here, we saw a nice little double bottom happen. We saw this bottom come in at 74k on Monday. We rose up, we came back to 74k on Wednesday, bounced again after this nice little double bottom. This is where we really started to see things accelerate to the upside. And now we're in a very, very familiar place around 85, 86K, which we know bitcoin has had resistance in the past. So keeping a close eye on the charts for all the people who don't care as much about the technicals but are just concerned with prices. Just understand, hey, you know, this is a little bit of a turbulent zone and we expect volatility to kind of increase.
- [11:01]
TiVo
Yeah, great, great breakdown. And I think the key word being volatility is interesting. Unless you were. Do you have anything else you were going to share, Brendan, on the charts?
- [11:12]
Brendan
No, I think that was the bulk of it. Just kind of looking at it and understanding like where we are. Right. Because it's easy to, to look at the market and be like, well, like what really should we be understanding here? And I think the big things to understand is just like, hey, number one, we're at resistance and two, volatility is probably going to stick around for a bit.
- [11:32]
TiVo
Yeah. But in the sense of volatility, I'll bring up this chart which we found fascinating. Again, not necessarily going to break down the technicals behind the numbers here because it involves standard deviations and all that stuff, but just a chart comparing the volatility of bitcoin and the S P500. And I know one thing that, you know, our entire team was talking about and me and you were talking about specifically was how surprised we were going through the last two weeks of all the crazy macro data and you know, absolute record breaking, true, truly a record breaking or, you know, all time, you know, type sell off compared to the, you know, we talked about 2008 and the great financial crisis, a Covid type sell off. And during that time, the S&P 500, as you can see in that white line, if you go, if you kind of go all the way to the right of the chart there, the S&P 500 at one point last week was more volatile than bitcoin. And I know me and you both said, I said it yesterday. I, you agreed, I'd love your opinion on it. To elaborate on a little more was if you would have told me, you know, a month ago, if we had rose colored glasses to see the future, if you would have said that the tariff announcements were coming out and it was going to be triple what anybody thought and there was going to be a sell off in the S P500 in the NASDAQ that was comparable to the great financial crisis and Covid, when you, when you're talking about like a vix level of volatility and fear, I would have told you that bitcoin would drop, you know, maybe 10, 25 plus percent. And I, if I knew the future, which we can't know the future, I would have sold A lot of stuff leading into that and I was shocked to see it in real time of bitcoin holding up. And now even as the data is coming out with a, with a chart like this and a statistic like this, I think it's really shows the maturity of, of the asset as a whole. And, and it's an interesting time when you're kind of seeing this nation state level transition. And this is kind of the, the promise of bitcoin, right. Is like, you know, it's not Democrat or Republican. It doesn't, you know, belong to a nation state. And I thought, you know, as volatile as a product as it is for its history, I thought it was an interesting case study for the last couple of weeks and I wanted to, you know, pick your brain about what you thought specifically around this statistic.
- [13:50]
Brendan
Yeah, you know, bitcoin has been holding, holding value. When you're right. When we look at the VIX and when we look at how bitcoin has held up, I think it shocked a lot of people. We said this last week, but people were expecting bitcoin to get potentially crushed. Right? There's the two scenarios. It's either, hey, bitcoin will never be able to survive a 2008, a dot com bubble, a great depression. It's never going to be able to survive that kind of volatility. That'll be the death of it. And there's a lot of people that, that touted that. Right. That was the big point. There's another point to say, hey, this is actually going to be the defining moment for bitcoin. And if we can see it survive this, like that is a, that's proof, that's proof that it's exactly what it's meant to be. And that's what we've seen so far. All these people who thought that it was going to be able to crumble under the volatility, that it was going to get crushed, it's done the opposite. It's seen less volatility than the indices. It's holding value better. We've shown this in some of the recent weeks. I think it was about two weeks ago. We showed it on the short term timeframe, the midterm timeframe and the long term timeframe. In fact, I actually just went and reran the numbers myself. I was looking at this saying, okay, well how are we still performing since election day? A lot has happened since a couple of weeks ago. How is bitcoin still actually holding up in the bigger market environment? And I'm trying to Pull it up on my end just so that I can come across and get the exact numbers. But yeah, here it is. So we have bitcoin, which is green, and this was done about two days ago on Monday. But Bitcoin is green 25% since election day. Gold is green 17% since election day. The S&P is red five and a half percent, Nasdaq is red 6%, oil is red 14% and the Russell 2000 is red 14% as well. What this means is that bitcoin, again, still since election day, is outperforming precious metals. It's outperforming commodities, it's outperforming large equities, and it's outperforming small equities. That's a really, really big thing to understand. And again, that's more the midterm, the long term. We all know bitcoin has been very, very successful. It's outperforming almost everything on the long term. Now the short term, as we talked about earlier, again, even today, bitcoin's green point. What is it now? Point, almost 1% in the green. What are, what are large equities doing? They're red 1 to 2%. What are small equities doing? They're red 1%. We know what is just about any other market doing? Well, they're all pretty much red. I think the only one that might not be red is gold on the day. And that's actually having a really good one screen about two and a half percent. But again, over these kind of long term midterm time horizons, it's really hard to compare. So bitcoin is doing exactly what it needs to, exactly what it was intended to be doing. And that gives me just a lot of reassurance. I'm just looking at this going, this is, this is exactly what we planned. We always like to have a saying over here which is plan your trade and trade your plan. And in a sense, bitcoin's doing that, right? Bitcoin's trade was planned, right where we're saying, this is its purpose, this is what it's supposed to do. And now we're actually living through it and being like, okay, well, you know, things are going according to plan. And it just helps me rest easy just being like, all right, yeah. I mean, this is, this is, this is the proving moment. And it's doing what it needs to. And I'm not sweating it, I'm not concerned. And yeah, I'm liking it. And I do think that this creates, this is the final thing I'll say before I pass it over to you, TiVo. But, you know, when I'm looking at this, this gives me a lot of reassurance, because I think that when we do start going back to the upside, I think that it makes the case for bitcoin even stronger. I always like to look at what assets are holding value in a bearish time or what assets are doing well in a bearish time. And then I usually use that as an indicator to say, okay, well, when we do start to see more accelerated risk come back into the market, when we see people start to buy again, it's those overperforming assets. It's the ones that. That held value and did good in a bearish time that are typically the ones that see some of the most acceleration back to the upside, once we kind of shift things back from a bearish to bullish gear. And that's one of the big things I'm going to be watching out over here on bitcoin kind of moving forward is saying, hey, if we do start shifting back into a very, very bullish gear, a very, very bullish mode, I think that bitcoin does have the ability to really, really see some upside acceleration.
- [18:33]
TiVo
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. And it's a wild time, obviously, because we've just talked about nonstop over three weeks. But my. My point of bringing it up again is how I'm trying to figure out how to phrase this. Kind of. Kind of building off of what you said is like the. I totally lost my train of thought. Okay, never mind. I got. I got. We. We were kind of. We were kind of waiting in the sense of, we're saying, looking at the downside, like, okay, support. Like, oh, we got support at 70, 65. Like, it could go down there. It could go down there. But then everybody. Everybody in the space, and everybody's kind of like, oh, well, I'll buy down there. I'll definitely buy down there. And I know a lot of people say it, and when stuff's going down, it's hard to buy, but I felt like, especially with, you know, the NASDAQ dropping 20% in a couple of days, it's like, well, if you've been in the crypto markets and for, you know, six, eight years, whatever you're used to, 20% swings, like, it doesn't turn your stomach as much. And so it almost feels like, specifically in this space, it's like, hey, like, if this thing goes down to 60, we're going to buy it. If this thing goes down to 40, we're going to buy it. So I feel like there's not as much panic in the streets. And the point I wanted to build towards was again, it's like one of those things. Like if you would have told me a year ago that there would be some type of macroeconomic crisis around kind of the US Government doing some type of tariffs and all stocks were kind of caught under this tariff bubble of, of kind of negative government, you know, policies. But bitcoin is, is under the umbrella of positive government policies and positive government momentum. I, I would have said you're crazy. But that's kind of what we have here, right? Like everybody's kind of. And there's probably a ton of stocks that sold off specifically last week that have nothing to do with tariffs that are probably long term, a good buy, but there, there's a handful of huge companies. Again, we were talking about the beginning of the show with, with Nvidia today. Last night there was a headline that, you know, Nvidia's Some of the tariff policy of exporting their, their newer chips to China is banned and Nvidia is going to have to eat like a $5 billion rev cut on their, on their earnings in Q1. Same thing with AMD. They're not allowed to now ship certain kinds of chips, you know, over to China. It's going to be $1 billion off their, off their earnings. So you know, these are real effects to real companies with, while, you know, bitcoin and crypto has all this momentum in the government to, to keep building and, and moving forward. So I think that's exciting. But I will say there was one part of the sell off in the last week. Brendan. We were just, we were kind of waiting like, you know, we, we were confident, but we were like, where's Michael Sailor? Where are the orange dots? Like, we thought it was a perfect time for, you know, micro strategy to buy more. They were buying non stop at the top, right? And they're like, oh wow, here's a dip. Like this is the perfect time for Sailor to come. And everybody was waiting and then sure enough, Sunday night we finally got the Sailor tracker. So I'll pull it up on the screen for everybody. Again, not, it's about time. Not surprising. But we, we were waiting for our guy. You know, we were waiting for our guy. So, so he's back. We've added another dot. And then again when, when the price drops and everybody says Sailor's gonna get margin called, you know, there's plenty of research out there that you can do that. You know, that. That doesn't seem to be the case, but good to see Sailor back, back in the saddle buying some. And again, MicroStrategy along with Bitcoin has held strong, obviously because they're, they're comparable. But you know, MicroStrategy Bottomed, the local bottom at least was the end of March. And during the April sell off, the tariff, sell off, it didn't, it didn't make a new low. So just interesting stuff all around. But are you excited to see Michael Saylor back in the saddle here?
- [22:26]
Brendan
Yeah, I am. You know, let me just say I like Michael Saylor a lot. He does a lot of great things for the space. He's super intelligent and I really do like him and like listening to him. I do think it's funny about how many orange dots there are at the top of the market and how there's like accelerated buying at the top. And you'd think like, that would be a little bit less. So the case, like there would be less accelerated buying at the top, at the peak, and then there would be more accelerated buying at a time like this where it's like, hey, we're down 30%. So people were waiting on him being like, like, why were you buying so, so frequently at the top and you're not buying as much frequent, frequently down here. And I understand he probably burned through a lot of the cash and there's probably a lot more cash coming in. People trying to throw their money at them, saying, you know, let's buy this in. It's probably just a lot easier when the market's hot. And I understand that, but you'd think that they keep a larger reserve to again increase frequency while the market's down 20, 30 plus percent. And I want to see more again. That's the only point that I'm trying to make here is I want to see more dots now that we're down. I mean, how much is bitcoin down? I think it was down, what was it down? 20%. I think at one point it was down 30. So now we're down about 23%. I want to see more dots now that we're down 20 to 30% than I did when we were up, you know, right. At all time highs. So that's my challenge to Sailor. I know he listens to the, to the podcast every single week. He's a dedicated fan. He comments on all of our stuff. We want to see you buy more.
- [24:01]
TiVo
Friend of the program. Friend of the program. And I'm sure like, you know, his strategy is he just wants as much bitcoin as possible. But I'm sure from like a stock and money raising and the bond stuff that he does, it's a lot easier to raise money when you're the price of your stock is higher. So that's probably part of the correlation there. But I agree, man, fire like Sailor, fire up the Uber Eats account. Like get out there, let's deliver some pizzas and, and keep, keep buying, you know.
- [24:26]
Brendan
Oh, I agree. And you know, he's not the only one buying. You had a, a really good graphic coming in from our friends over at Bitwise and I'll, I'll hand it off to you, but we're seeing that, you know, Sailor's not alone with his buying here.
- [24:39]
TiVo
Yeah, I thought this was really interesting. The Bitwise corporate adoption graphic came out this week and I guess the most interesting part for me was the top right and its number of public companies is now 79 and that's a 17.9. So basically an 18 change quarter over quarter meaning 12 new companies bought bitcoin this quarter. So yeah, you can pop around here and find a bunch of different fun graphics like total bitcoin holdings at 688 thousand. And the top five companies are strat, microstrategy, number one, mara holdings, riot Clean, Spark, and then Tesla rounding out the top five, which, you know, I know us in the space know, but it's something that I find really interesting that Tesla's still in the top five number one because they haven't bought any new stuff recently, but they also have any sold any. But also Elon doesn't really like to talk about bitcoin that much which, you know, obviously we, we would love for him to talk about bitcoin more but I always find that kind of contrast interesting that you know, he was interested in the, in the space and the technology of bitcoin earlier and clearly bought it at the right time, but doesn't really enjoy talking about it. But nonetheless, actions say louder than words and, and Tesla is definitely not selling it. So yeah, just again, as much as strategy and, and Sailor take, take all the, you know, the press when they come out and everybody's waiting for the Sailor tracker, you know, an 18 bump, quarter over quarter of of people buying bitcoin I think is really interesting and kind of building off your point with, with MicroStrategy, that 20 came last quarter closer to the top than the bottom. So an interesting thing to track is, you know, who's going to be buying, buying the dip here. But also it's a long term play. Like I can't imagine a company is going to start a Bitcoin strategy 1/4 and then get shaken out after, you know, a dip. Like, you know, what we're seeing. So long term plays but interesting, you know, to keep seeing companies added to the balance sheet.
- [26:44]
Rene Haas
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- [27:42]
Brendan
No purchase necessary. BTW terms and conditions 18 + yeah, and there's another name on that list now they've been around for, I'd say probably the last six or so months is when I really started to hear about them. But medically and actually maybe more than that now I started to hear about them. I think it was like last fall, last summer. But Meta Planet has come out and they're now the 10th largest public Bitcoin holder. And this is a big deal. So they are Japanese based and they have pretty much an identical approach to bitcoin that strategy and Michael Saylor do. And I think that they saw what he was doing, how well it was working and they said hey, this makes sense and we want to do this as well. And so we've seen them just acquire more and more and more and they haven't slowed down and they just continue to gobble up as much bitcoin as they can. And it's worked out for them pretty well so far. So Metal Planet is kind of becoming the new micro strategy, so to say. Again, nowhere near as much. But they have a very, very similar approach to how they're acquiring it and what they're doing and their long term thesis and yeah, they're making tidal waves. So I wouldn't be shocked if we see them kind of breach up the list a little bit, climb up the ladder and start rivaling some of these other companies that maybe aren't acquiring as much Bitcoin.
- [29:09]
TiVo
Yeah, again, yeah, it's a fun list to watch. Kind of like a long term horse race. Right. Like you got all your horses out on the track and there's some in the lead and some are catching up. So it'll be, it'll be fun to track and we're going to keep doing that here. But now for, for the main event. So this was in the title, this was in the thumbnail. We've kind of highlighted the case for bitcoin here and obviously all the, not just people but companies buying it. And there's some stats coming out that we're seeing on the exchanges. And I, we've talked about this before but haven't touched on it for a while because I think will show you this charts and the statistics. It's something that is, is kind of coming to an interesting level of are there enough bitcoin on exchanges? Brendan, we're kind of starting to see that, that displacement of, you know, the exchanges are running low on bitcoin and could that cause some type of supply shock if the price was, was going high? I know we had the video on this was months ago now, but it was kind of Tom Lee, Tom Lee, our guy was saying, you know, if there's anybody who wants the price of bitcoin to stay where it's at or even go lower, it's the exchanges because they don't, they don't have enough supply. And so I found a clip here. I'm going to bring it up. This is again a, a bit wise. We haven't ever met Bradley Duke here. He's head of Europe bitwise. So good for bitwise to keep expanding. But he's. It's a minute clip here. I thought it was interesting, kind of explaining the dynamic of what we're talking here in bitcoin exchanges. So we're going to listen to this clip and then we have a graphic we're going to show you. So let's tune in to Bradley Duke.
- [30:46]
Bradley Duke
The illiquid supply. So currently we are seeing the. On exchange balances of bitcoin being the lowest, I think going back to 2018. So this is like Going back for many, many years now, the balances for bitcoin on exchange have never been this low. And what that signals is that there's a lack of sellers on the market. So people will move from cold storage to exchange when they're ready to sell their bitcoin. And if the exchanges are showing low balances, that means that we have few sellers in the market. And that will come into play and become very interesting once there is a rise and the buyers come back into the market for bitcoin. My prediction, and of course I don't have a crystal ball and I don't know, and this isn't investment advice, but my feeling is that when it does start to move back up again, it's going to jump because there simply aren't any sellers. And if people are bidding and trying to buy and they aren't sellers in the market, they're going to just keep offering higher and higher prices to buy the bitcoin that they want. And so I expect that it will gap up quite significantly when it does start to rise again in the future.
- [32:01]
TiVo
So really, again, a great point. Never personal financial advice for, for this show. Just a couple guys talking crypto here. But really, again, I, I love how me and you come together and make these rundowns and kind of, we kind of piece it together. How's this going to flow? Is it going to fit? And this is the culmination of the whole episode. So we've given you the whole piece of the puzzle from, hey, bitcoin has held up well during this tumultuous time. Hey, it could go lower, but, you know, hey, if it went to 70 or 60 or 40, like we said 10 minutes ago, we're going to buy. We're not worried about selling. Like, there's certain people, like, we've talked about it, I can go pluck the clip, but I know we talked about it a lot. Kind of coming in to the new year where we said on this show, hey, people that are new to bitcoin and came in at a hundred thousand, you're going to get tested. We don't know what the test is going to be for you, but you don't get to buy Bitcoin at 103,000 and then ride it to 150. That's not how the history of any asset goes. Right? You're going to be tested. And so, I mean, you can make the argument that we're in the middle of this test now, whether it's the first inning, the fifth inning, or maybe the Eighth inning of the test. We can't tell you, but we're, we're in the test here and, and funneling that down to saying like, hey, this community is strong. The, the government oversight and momentum with working, you know, with the US Government to make, you know, America the crypto capital of the world. And moving forward on bitcoin, what we learned about the summit, the momentum's there, while the macro is scary and the price action isn't what you want to see, you know, with the drops and all that, the momentum's there. And then it kind of funneled down to this fact that, hey, there's not enough bitcoin on exchanges. So I'll bring up the chart and, you know, you're our technician, Brendan. You can see through the fog better than anybody else. So what does this say to you and, you know, your thoughts on just this topic as a whole?
- [33:52]
Brendan
Yeah, you know, this is coming in from crypto Kwan, and it shows the exchange reserves for bitcoin. And we can, you know, some of the other charts will even go back farther than this and show that, hey, this has been on a decline for years now, but this is going to go back to summer of 2022. And you can see at the top left, that kind of purple line that we have is the exchange reserves. And in fact, if you actually click on the thing that says price at the top of the screen, actually, yeah, right up there it says price USD and it has like a little gray line in the middle that'll remove just the price. But I think it's good to see it where we can look at it and we can see that price has worked in the opposite direction, and we might need to go back to the previous slide for it. But prices worked in the opposite direction of the, of the exchange reserves. So as the reserves have been going down here on the purple line, you can see that the price has been climbing up. Why is this? Well, again, it's like the most basics of, of economics, which is if supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, that asset has to rise in price. There's a big old reason why the average rock that you can pick up outside is worth a whole lot less than a piece of gold or silver or a diamond or a ruby or anything like that. Right. Because those aren't your average piece of like, granite or, or whatever it may be, or asphalt. That is because they are a lot more limited in their supply. So when we go and we look at what's happening here with bitcoin, again, the supplies are decreasing as the supplies continue to decrease. And I'll say in the last year, it is rapidly started just moving downwards. Right, we can see that that's from January 2024 to, to January of 2025. You can just see it start to fall off a cliff. Especially in, I'd say, the last six to nine months, we've started to really, really see these exchange reserves dwindle. Bitcoin is becoming more rare. There's less that's happening, there's less that's sticking around on exchanges. And because of this, the price is forced to appreciate. Then you factor in things like the having. Then you factor in, you know, all the bitcoin that has been lost or locked away or whatever it may be, all the bitcoin that's in cold storage. And there's a lot less bitcoin in circulation in existence than people think. And so this all works towards, hey, can this appreciate. And I would say that this really accelerates the timeline for bitcoin. When we're looking at where bitcoin can go and how fast it can do it. When you have such a supply shock happening, it accelerates how fast all of that can be, can be done and accomplished. And it also, I would say, raises the upside numbers because if we, if we think, oh, you know, there's, there's 19 million, there's 20 million Bitcoin in circulation right now, when in reality, you know, maybe there's, there's a three quarters of that, maybe there's half of that. I've seen some other charts that say, hey, in the last year or so, you know, how much bitcoin has actually been active. And I don't have the, this screenshot or the charts in front of me, but if you look at how much bitcoin has actually been moved around in the last year, it's a fraction of the supply. I think it's something like 33% or 35% of Bitcoin has actually moved around in the last 12 months, which is a whole lot less than people probably think. So again, when we're looking at what's happening here, it's a huge supply shock. This, as we can see on the chart in front of us, works inversely when it comes to price. And as the supply continues to dwindle, I think we're going to continue to see bitcoin appreciate.
- [37:45]
TiVo
No, great, great breakdown. And I think this is a, it's almost a fun chart to look back in the sense of history. I, yeah, I thought just as an exercise of, of talking it out loud. I thought it was interesting to see the exchange rate plus the last final dip, which was FTX in the fall of 22, go down and then actually the exchange rate went down as well. I don't know. I thought for some reason maybe if the price was skyrocketing, that the exchange rate would go up because people would want to liquidate. Do you think the same way? Is that surprising to see that one final dip in price here for the bottom of the last bear market and the exchange rate go down, down with it as well? Is that surprising to you or no?
- [38:30]
Brendan
A little bit. But what it shows is that people were buying it up in mass and what that actually does like that is the final capitulation moment. And you can see it because there are people that are selling it off, but it is massively being bought up off these exchanges. And so this is where you see people buying it in mass. That like, that represents a final capitulation moment and then the other half of that. And what I think people don't understand fully is that when that happens, Bitcoin is now easier. It is now easier for Bitcoin to hit a new all time high after that. Why? Well, such a large portion of the supply was just removed off exchanges, so now it's actually easier for Bitcoin to go back to all time highs than it was previously. Right, because the supply shrank, but now we're at the slower price. So if we're going to go back to the all time high with a lower supply, it's actually easier to get back up there in the first place. It's like burning. I'm not sure what that move was, but we were sitting around 3.3 million bitcoin on exchanges and then we dropped to like just under 3 million bitcoin on exchanges. So it's not a massive difference, but it's now saying, hey, from September of, of 2022 to January of 2023, it's now going to be easier to get back to that all time high than it was just about six months prior to that. Does that make sense?
- [40:00]
TiVo
Yeah, totally. Totally. Great breakdown. I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't like crazy in thinking that. And I thought it was interesting once you hit that low on the exchanges, you never went up and tested that high from 2022 for Bitcoin on exchanges. You kind of created this range from 2.9 million to looks like 3.1 million. That was the range for a full, you know, almost, almost two years plus and then now we're dropping off a cliff. So. Yeah, fast. Fascinating stuff. And again, I thought it was a great episode, bitcoin focus episode to kind of wrap up the bitcoin specific conversation on that. But I know to end the show we did have a cool, a cool kind of crypto exchange. Some news that we wanted to share, you thought was interesting. So I'll toss it to you for the, for the Kraken news.
- [40:51]
Brendan
Yeah. So Kraken is now going to be offering us stock and ETF trading and they're also preparing for an ipo. Now this is a big deal. We've seen some other big crypto players, most notably Robinhood and Coinbase kind of do the same thing. I just know I saw recently me and Tivo were talking about it that weebly IPO and it had this crazy like 5,600% mood to the upside. But unrelated to this, you know, we're seeing that a lot of these companies want to dip their toes into other waters. And I think that a lot of this stems from the ETFs. They're looking at this saying, hey, we want people to be able to have exposure to everything crypto related, not just cryptocurrency. And they're doing this and they're saying, hey, well what if we offered the Bitcoin ETFs, what if we offered the Ethereum ETFs, what if we offered bitcoin options? Crypto companies and they're starting to look at all these other avenues and they're saying, what if we could just do it all from a single place, from a single centralized spot and we could ease the barrier to access. And I think that that's what this is about is can we give people access to all aspects of cryptocurrency from a singular spot. And I'm actually all for that now again, I, I use Kraken. They're one of the exchanges that I like, but I've nothing to no affiliation with them or anything. But I just think it's a cool idea where if we can create a world where everything can be done from a single spot, then it helps more people get involved. Right. The lower that we move that, that barrier to entry, the more people can come in and say, oh well, regardless of what I want to do in crypto, if I can do it all from a single spot, that just makes it easier. And I think that's what a lot of people want is they don't want it to be some complicated process where if I have to go buy that coin, I need to go to a wallet. If I want to go to this coin, I have to go to a different exchange. If I want to go go buy the stock, I need to go open up a traditional brokerage account if I want to do this and that. And they have to go to like five different places for five different things. And you know, we live in a world where that shouldn't have to be the case. And we're starting to see a lot of these companies make an intentional effort to say let's, let's do it all from a singular spot. And I'm all for that. Again, I think it helps more people be involved with crypto. Different people also like to be involved in different things. Some people like altcoin trading, some people want bitcoin exposure, some people want the ETFs, some people want options, some people want crypto related stocks. Like people want different things and people are better at different areas. And so if we can say, hey, let's just do it all from a singular spot, I see it as a net positive for the space. So I wish them the best of luck. I know that they're trying to compete with Robinhood now, so we'll see how that goes. Because Robinhood has definitely established themselves in the, in the space. But you could argue that Kraken is pretty established as well. I think that they're a little bit more established on the crypto side and Robinhood might be more established on the traditional financial side. So what we have now is a battle where Robinhood is trying to acquire more crypto market share and they have, they've done a really good job of it and now Kraken is trying to do the opposite and acquire more Tradfi market share chair and again, we'll see. I think that the, the world is big enough for a couple of these players and it doesn't have to be a, A one winner takes all scenario. And again, yeah, I just hope it goes well.
- [44:27]
TiVo
Couldn't, couldn't agree more. My first thing to, to wrap up is shout out to Tim Matthews. Our guy Tim Matthews, live in the YouTube. He commented at the beginning of the show that he was so pumped to catch the rundown live on YouTube for the first time. He said he normally listens to his car. Our listens in his car. But shout out to you Tim. Thanks for joining us. And he says he's excited for the exchanges to, to start offering this because he thinks he sounds crazy when he has four or five active exchanges himself. Yeah, and I agree with him. I agree with him. And obviously we have the famous, yeah, we have the famous Robin Hood call for us. I'm a big, you know, Robin Hood fan and we've had them on the podcast. But it's, it's really a testament to, to innovation and it seems to be the golden age for. Or maybe we're in the middle of it, or the beginning, the golden age for exchanges as a whole, for this type of innovation. Because if you go back to a year, I guess a year almost and a half ago now, or maybe, maybe even a little less, when, when the Bitcoin ETF went live and Vanguard made this big stance of we will not be offering any, you know, Bitcoin ETFs on our exchanges. You know, it's, it's bad, it's not an asset, whatever, blah, blah, blah. And then of course, we covered how their CEO who announced that got relieved of his duties like two months later. But I, it almost that that specific situation was contradictive because, you know, they have a huge stake and, and sell shares of MicroStrategy. So it's like, what, you know, what's your point? But besides that, it's like, okay, there's your old guard, pun intended, with Vanguard, but there's your old guard saying, we're not going to be giving you Bitcoin ETFs. And then here's, you know, your innovators, whether it's a we bull Interactive Brokers is the one that has a lot of momentum right now. Robin Hood clearly has a ton of momentum. And here you go with crack and IPOing and all that stuff. So it's, I think it's just one of those things. It's, it's a classic, you know, driver of the Internet and more information and more availability drives innovation. And, you know, I think these old guards have had a huge moat in this market and they haven't innovated their tech. You know, I don't want to disparage anyone specifically, but I've used some in the past or, and I've made the switch mainly for me because I just. The user experience was so bad when, when these new ones, they're, they're so good. So a lot to learn. And that segues me into talking about the YouTube channel. Obviously, we have the crypto rundown and all the podcasts. Please like and subscribe. But we also have a huge tutorial set that Brendan here has worked tirelessly to build a backlog of tutorials from everything from coinbase to. I know Brian has showed us some Robin Hood stuff and you're working on Gemini and Kraken. And we just have so many tutorials, stemming everything and everything, Anything and everything crypto. So if you're interested in keeping tabs with the rundown, like you are listening to this, any of our other podcasts. But more specifically, if you haven't yet, check out our tutorial section. It's on our YouTube. It's under the playlist, Crypto education. And we have so much for you guys to go and learn. And Brendan's always staying up on, on the forefront of all these stuff, all this stuff. So, you know, that's. That's how I wanted to end the episode.
- [47:48]
Brendan
Yeah, no, could not have said it better myself. We got all sorts of content that we like to pump out beyond just these, these crypto rundowns that we do every single week around 10am Eastern time. He's right. We do all sorts of tutorials, podcasts, market updates, you name it. And we got a lot going on over here. So if you like all the free content that we put out every single week, all that we like to ask is, hey, check out some of those links in the description down below. We have some great crypto communities that you can get plugged into over at Crypt Nation and a lot of great resources where if you're looking to get deeper into the crypto space, you can certainly do that. And we'd love to be the avenue for which everyone gets a little bit more plugged in. But yeah, that's gonna wrap us up everyone. We appreciate everyone tuning in here going through this week's crypto rundown. I see. It's funny. I love having a chat box because we can see the comments come in and talk to people like Tim and Trinity who have been in the chat box. And even as emojis are coming in, I can see the emojis getting like spammed up, which I'm just now noticing for the first time because I'm kind of like having the ability to look at the chat box. But people put like little hearts and party emojis and 100 percentages and it's just a funny little thing. But yeah, no, we appreciate everyone coming in here. Thank you all for watching and we're gonna see all of you at the same time, same place next week.
- [49:23]
Ryan Seacrest
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