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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Fear Greed Index EXTREME FEAR...The Stats Around Traditional Bitcoin Corrections
00:45:00
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. Guys, welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast. It is your two favorite people, Brian and Tebow, here recording with you. When people thought, listen, everybody was saying they're not going to record. The markets are down. They don't want to talk about it. They're going to be hiding. And that is not the case. Guys, we are here. We are facing the music. And listen, we. We've been saying this again. We had a show with Friday with Brendan. We did a lot of technical analysis and we kind of teed it up and said, hey, we're kind of teetering here at 100k and if this does break, it is an elevator down to 92. We hit that over the weekend. We even dipped below 90 and now bounced back. But we're here, we're here to break it all down with you guys. We love doing this again. We always say it's more fun to do it when the markets are ripping. We. But this is where the opportunity is. And again with the volatility. We have to say it off the jump, Brian, but we are not your personal financial advisors. This is not personal financial advice. But we're here to educate. We're here to give our research and we're here to be a community with you guys to talk through it. Brian, I were just talking before the show. We actually love doing these in all times of turmoil, whether it's good or bad, because we get to talk about it with each other, with you guys, and build our community. And that's what we think is so important here about us being educators and just kind of influencers in the space. So, Brian, thanks for joining me today. Not the best of times, but I don't know, I. We were building our sheet out and just, you know, we're still excited for again, where the space is overall zooming out, looking back three years ago. And overall, there's. There's a lot of negativity in the air. And when there's a lot of negativity air, that's the consensus trade, right? Everybody's. It seems to be on one side of the boat right now. So I think there's some things to poke through and talk about. But how are you, my friend?
- [01:52]
B
Yeah, I'm doing great, man. As we were saying earlier, I love doing these shows with you. It definitely makes me a stronger analyst to kind of think through my thoughts. Obviously, you, me, a lot of our listeners were heavily invested or watched the cryptocurrency market very closely. So when we see major volatility without really, like, a lot of, like, fundamental reason why, like when FTX happened, we were like, well, Sam Bankman fried. And we could blame him. But when we don't get a lot of reasons why we're taking a decline, it makes us feel uneasy. There's volatility out there. I say it all the time. That's always an area of opportunity as well. You said it perfectly. When you zoom out, things look okay. They really do. We're going to go through a few of the reasons why. Why this is happening, reasons why we're slightly bearish, reasons why we're very bullish. There's a. There's a lot of mixed feelings, but. But the sentiment changes in crypto definitely happen pretty fast.
- [02:48]
A
Yeah. And we started off the show with actually one of my favorite memes. When the market's down, it's the let me enjoy this pain meme. It's gotten over 1.5 million views on our Instagram account. So people are certainly sharing and feeling the pain. But that's okay. We're going to cover all of that. And just to. Just to kick off the show here, we're going to go over our favorite stuff. So we're going to bring up coin market cap. Obviously, we've been tracking the Fear and Greed index for you over the last couple weeks, so let's pull that up first. This one should be an extreme fear. It was yesterday 17, extreme fear. Today 15. Extreme fear. You can definitely feel it out there. Kind of everybody's. Everybody on the timeline is. Seems to be throwing in the towel. The yearly low, which we've just matched today here on this. On this one is 15. So we're talking about the same exact low when we were talking about tariffs and when bitcoin dipped down to. Let's see. I guess this would be right here. It says March 10th. March 10th, we were a 15, which. Which is interesting. And again, you could. You could make the case and maybe we could deep, deep dive this into more Friday. So we have a show today with Brian and me where Brian and I are going to be back on Friday and we'll do a deeper rundown on macro. And we're also going to do some meme coins because, believe it or not, Brian and Joe have had some absolute winners even in. In this tumultuous time. So we're going to cover that on, on Friday. Today we're going to do a shorter. It's probably going to be like 25 minutes, 30 minutes tops of just the macro environment because we're hitting all these signals, guys, that we watch. And again, it's part of our research and part of our team. And so when you start hitting kind of these historical levels of here and greed index, it's something to be talked about, it's something to digest. And so let's just bring. I know we covered it on Friday with. Oh, wow. A dolphin is swimming right out my window.
- [04:42]
B
A dolphin swimming right out my window.
- [04:46]
A
That's a sign. I don't know what are we taking the Dolphins over on wins the rest of the year. We buying some bitcoin. That was the dream when I bought this place was to podcast and watch the dolphins, and we did it live on air. That's got to be a sign of something. Let me hand it off to you as I want to get your take, because we got Brendan's in mind last week, but we're at a historical lows for the fear greed.
- [05:08]
B
Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's. It's. It's muddy out there right now and not outside your window. Just. Just in the crypto street markets. I mean, bitcoin's hovering. It feels like we're just dangling there at 93. Not sure which direction we're gonna go in, if it's gonna be up or down. Ethereum right around 3100. Solana right around 140 bucks. Definitely can understand why people on the timeline are in the fear and greed meters. As low as it is. I've been kind of going back and forth like that March time, that April time, really, you know, after those highs from the election and we saw just everything blow off the top. Then we went really low in the March, April and the tariff. I'm not sure if right now has a lower vibe or if it was then, but neither one of them are really cozy right now. I do. I do believe that there's, like, a lot of things to look on the bright side. And we'll talk about this current administration and why I think it's so important that they are going to drive, you know, drive this crypto bus forward for us. But right now, in the present day, on Tuesday, the market feels muddy, and I'm not really sure which direction we're going to go personally. Well, we were under, what, 90 yesterday? And it's nice to see us back above that number. I'd really like to see us back to like, 102. That would make me feel very, very comfortable. And I think a lot of people out there, but then you have guys like the Winklevoss twins out there saying that we're never going to be able to buy bitcoin again under 90k. So there's a lot of positives out there as well.
- [06:47]
A
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- [08:02]
C
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- [09:01]
A
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If you're serious about longevity or just curious about what your body's real age is, head to truediagnostic.com and use my code crypto 101 for 20% off your entire order or subscription. That's truediagnostic.com code crypto 101 for 20% off. Your future self will thank you. Howdy partner. Next time you get chicken at McDonald's, you won't have to choose between the creamy flavors of ranch and the tangy kick of buffalo any longer. This time, enjoy all the flavors you love all at once. Try new creamy and tangy buffalo ranch sauce and participate in McDonald's for a limited time. Yeah, you got to give a shout out to Gemini or, well, shout out to the Winklevoss twins. Obviously the CEOs and owners of Gemini tweeted this out. This is the last time you'll be able to buy Bitcoin below 90k. Obviously there's a little bit of a bias there, but as a awesome sponsor the show, you know, I don't know, I don't, I don't know if I want to take the other side of that trade either. We, we. I was texting you this morning. So this is kind of an impromptu session. Originally Bren and I were gonna go live tomorrow. Uh, schedules kind of flipped. I asked Brian if he could hop on with me today. But before I asked him that, I was texting him this morning. I was having my coffee, Brian, and I texted you, I'm nibbling. I said hey before. Hey, hand up full disclosure, as we like to say in the business. Full disclosure. Taking some nibbles here. And again, I think I'm going, I'm going with my high conviction plays, I'm going with my long term blue chips. But you know, and again, we try to be as transparent as we are when we're on the airwaves and, and obviously if you're inside the community and inside the group, you're getting the trade alerts, Brian and Joe, or if you're part of the vip, you're getting the weekly newsletters with the buy zones on bitcoin. So again we try to do our best to give you as much information we can on the podcast. But if you are interested in these kind of volatile times to dive more deep into the community, check out the links below. I have a dollar trial for the community and we have Brian and Joe's community as well. And for Brian and Joe, we're going to deep diver dive deeper on that on Friday. But again, these levels for the long term, I just. There, there's. Again, I don't, I'm not sitting here saying bringing out the hammer at all, but, but I gotta be nibbling here. And again, my, myself, I was, you know, taking some off the table on the way up. I had my trading strategy. I also had some sell limits that I had in at the, you know, 110 level personally that started to get hit. Pudgy penguin. I had some cell levels that Started to get hit and I still have massive, you know, bags of those that, that I, that hurts when they go down. But again it's all about your trading strategy and understanding what risk you can take to the downside and just kind of setting those stop losses to make sure you're taking some profits off the table is, is, is how I like to do it. And everybody has a different way of trading but I think an important thing to do. But we're still kind of on the Fear Greed index here. Let me share this tab. And said here's an alternative me one. We bring this up. Brendan likes this one. Extreme fear down in 11. Let's go down here to the one year. I mean this might, let's see, this was a 10. So we're, we're, we're just, we're literally all these metrics measure different things. That's why we like to look at all of them. And, and again, I'm going to jump over to the Kobese letter here. And this is for the stock market guys. So this isn't crypto specific. The last two are crypto specific. This one's for the stock market and now we're in extreme fear for the stock market. And so I always think that, you know, once you get level the playing field with all the markets, it's really an interesting time to be looking at if there's things that are on your roadmap that you've done the research for and you have conviction in to be deploying capital if you have some. Because it's an interesting. That it's extreme fear and the sentiment is last seen at the April 2025 bottom. Yet the S&P 500 is only 4% from its record highs and up 37% since the April low. So I don't know what that exactly tells. I think that actually could tell that there's there's more pain to the downside, but there's actually more, I think there's more fear that it's going to go to the downside and there's something to be said and, and that's what the letter here says. This is simply not what you see before a market crash. Those aren't my words. That's the messy letter. But I do tend to agree with it because I'll say this and I'm going to toss it to you, Brian. Everybody has these indicators and we talk about them at the top. Who's texting you? I had my uncle text me a couple months ago should he really buy Bitcoin and I mentioned, I said, well, hey, hey, Unc, like, do you remember three years ago at the Thanksgiving table when I gave my big speech and now you're asking me three years later, hundreds of percent later. So I don't know what's right for you, but I have a friend and he's my, he's my counter signal. Whatever he says, I tend to go the other way. And he, he was a counter signal at the tariff bottom. And he just started texting me recently that he's very, very scared about the markets. And he's all on the Michael Burry tweets and sending me, like, we gotta sell it all. And so if he's the one that's never right and he's my counter signal telling me to sell it all, I got a little bit of, I got a little bit of belief that we might make a bounce here. And so again, we don't have the crystal ball, but it feels, it does feel very, very heavy in this extreme fear. And that's traditionally a good place to deploy capital again, long term. But just, you can't be on the same side of the boat as everybody. And we're not the smart, like the, the retail is not always the smartest, especially when it's time to sell. So, Brian, take it away. Like, again, all markets are fear, are in extreme fear right now.
- [16:16]
B
Yeah, I remember very clearly. I forget the Twitter personality who it was back in the day, but I remember them always saying like, hey, we're never going to be able to buy Bitcoin under 10k again. Never be able to buy Bitcoin under 10k again for sure. We went up and down and we're able to buy Bitcoin under 10k quite a few times. But then obviously we fire up to an astronomical amount above that $10,000 mark. And now we have, you know, the Winklevoss twins and part of Gemini saying we're never going to be able to buy under 90k. If you told me that, you know, a handful of years ago, I'd be like, all right, everything's gonna be okay. It's, it's the perspective you have that zoom out you have. And one other point of this is that I sit in spot, meaning that like I bought Bitcoin spot, Ethereum spot, Solana Meme, Coin spot. I don't do a ton of leverage trading. Obviously we talk about it, I'm pretty experienced with it and I've done leverage trading. But this is not for me personally. This is not the time for me to Try to play the leverage game. And I think that makes people feel a lot more uneasy when you can get liquidated, when there's no clear path up or down. But it's hard for me to argue that where we sit right now, especially in bitcoin, that it's not a time that we would not want to deploy some capital. If you have the long term vision of it, I certainly do. And I don't know if we're going to talk about it now or later. I'm going to just jump into it. Is the current administration, Donald Trump, love him or hate him, I have mixed bag of feelings with that individual as well. But he is definitely hung his hat in the administration, his family, his companies that he wants to move forward with crypto. And I do believe that that's going to continue to push forward even if we see these dips. Like we are now sitting at 93,000. Yes, I loved it at $126,000 as much as anybody. But this is a pullback, a 30% pullback, which is pretty common. And if you've been in the space for a while, this happens. And sitting in spot doesn't feel too uncomfy. And I can attest to it that TiVo did text me earlier today and mentioned that he was going to nibble. And I certainly have nibbled as well. I actually got a bitcoin buy under 90k yesterday. Not a tremendous amount, but I was like, this feels oversold. It just does. And maybe we go a little lower. But I think in the long run it just is what it is and we're going to be okay. We're going to survive this. And I've even mentioned this to our community in the past that I did believe that we were going to chop and probably see lower spots. And you talked about it with Brendan on Friday. There's a possibility that we got to this $92,000 mark. But the end of the day when we're looking and we're in a year or two and we're at 170, it's not going to really matter in the long run. So that's my overall kind of thoughts of where we are right now.
- [19:14]
A
Yeah, I mean, I just pulled up, like you said, the historical pullbacks from bitcoin, but let's just go because it's hard to go back when you're mentioning like the $10,000 era of Bitcoin. Hopefully some of our listeners have been with us since then, but a lot of aren't right. A lot have been coming in and 50, 75, whatever. So let's talk about basically this cycle. Since our FTX low of about 15,500, we've had some pullbacks. September 2003, we pulled back 21. September 2024, we pulled back 33%. And then April with the tariffs. We've already done it this year and we've done it together on this program at 31.94 right now. Currently in November, we're doing 26.28. And this is what we preach during the good times, guys. The volatility is here, the markets are here. And again, the stop loss hunting that we see on some of these exchanges is brutal when, especially when you're on leverage like we talked about. And that's why, you know, Brian just said, quote, feeling safe and spot here is kind of again, I think what we've all been doing and definitely been taking off our risk. I think again, this isn't historically mean that the bull market's over. A lot of people have been saying that the. There's a death cross. You know, we've talked about the golden cross a couple years ago when we had it. But the two are the. Sorry, the 50 day has crossed under the. The hundred. I'm sorry, yeah, the two. The 50 day crossed under the 200 day for the first time in a while. And I actually, I saw something. Maybe I'll bring it on Friday. But it was a, it was a statistic on when that happened. So let's tease that for Friday. I'm gonna go collect that. There was a two kind of the statistics of, hey, here's what happened with Bitcoin 3, 6 and 12 months out after the quote unquote death cross happened. The results are actually going to surprise you. So a little teaser for Friday's episode there, but kind of going off script a little bit. Maggie had a great question. So Maggie's listening in from London across the pond. Shout out, Maggie, we got Grant from Tampa. Deb's here for not promoting this out to the community and doing it last minute. A great crowd here today in the chat. We appreciate you guys. Maggie had a question. He's like. And I think this is actually relevant. What do you think the impact would be for bitcoin if there is an AI bubble burst? And that's kind of the negative sentiment here around AI recently has been again with all these shorts. Michael Burry obviously leading the X tweets of kind of people are starting to get a little bit nervous on this flywheel system where I could Try to pull something up when I hand it off to get your thoughts, Brian. But it's like Nvidia invests in Core Weave and Core Weave invests in Microsoft. Microsoft invests in Core Weave. Microsoft vests in OpenAI. OpenAI invests in. It's like this flywheel of investments. And could that bubble burst? And another thing this week, so it was that. That's bubbling right now, bubble, pun intended. And then the, there was the liquidity scares where the banks and the overnight repos with the government shutdown. The liquidity at the end of the month was scaring people. Now this week, what seems to be going is there's a little bit of private credit seems to possibly being in some unhealthy scenario. There's some people like Jeffrey Gundloch who lives in this space. So I like to listen to his interviews. He's saying this is a really unhealthy market structure for private credit. And then kind of off those quote cards, a private credit firm called Blue Al, Blue Al is making an interesting move where they're taking one of their private funds and they're merging it with one of their publicly traded funds. And it's, it's basically an awkward thing to do. Kind of a little bit of a red flag because when you're doing that, you're giving the, the private credit people a 20% haircut when you do that merge. So it's not something you would do unless you needed some form of liquidity. So a little bit of a red flag there. So I think Maggie's question is pretty potent, is could this be bad for bitcoin? And yes, in my opinion. And then I want to hear yours, Brian. If there's an AI bubble pop, which I don't think we're in a bubble right now, but as you can see, there's some, there's some tumultuous times just in tech investing in general. And then obviously kind of bitcoin was an indicator, and in my opinion, it kind of led the way down. And so bitcoin led the way down. Now the stock market's following and we got to see where this bottom kind of gets built out. But any thoughts around that, Brian, of the tech trade compared to bitcoin?
- [23:32]
B
Now you put some great thoughts out there, and I've thought about this quite a bit. If we truly see an AI bubble burst, obviously funds are going to pull money out of anything that looks risky and bitcoin's going to probably get dragged down with the rest of tech, at least that would be in the short term in Bitcoin usually would dip in moments like that. If we see that, that, that wouldn't be that, that. Then there's like another like thought process here I'm just kind of thinking out loud is like when one sector pops, it often rotates to the next. Strong narrative which I guess could be crypto. And you could even look at Bitcoin as being the flight to safety inside like a risk asset world. What we always talk about with like a digital girl. But the AI crash would not change Bitcoin's fundamentals. It might actually highlight how much cleaner and simpler Bitcoin's value prop is at the end of the day. But I guess in simple terms we would certainly see an initial drop. Then I do think we probably get a pretty strong recovery and possibly a tailwind into that Bitcoin or into crypto. But I don't think we're going to actually see this AI bubble pop. I think AI is an extremely interesting technology. I think we're embracing it in all sorts of different avenues and sectors. And I just don't want people to get too greedy out there with AI stocks or like any company that you know, throws AI in their name and it goes up 500%. That's always a concern. But I think AI is here to stay in a very positive way. I mean didn't we, we had like a cloud flare tech issue today. We couldn't even get on the Internet.
- [25:08]
A
So it goes to show you X was down. Good call.
- [25:11]
B
Yeah.
- [25:12]
A
And just again, sometimes you just gotta pat on your back. Credit to me went and dug up this sheet here. We can, we can pull this up because I think it is relative to what we're seeing in the macro markets, the stock market. So Peter Thiel sold his entire Nvidia share at a huge gain. So you could say it's taking profits. But then the bears of this trade, the Michael Burry's of this trade have been trying to alert everybody that here's this kind of flywheel, right? Nvidia is at the center, everybody needs their chips. And again, I'm not smart enough to be able to break this whole chart down for you, but you can kind of see Nvidia is being the center and the green lines here are outward investments. And then the purple lines in are these companies buying from Nvidia. So Nvidia kind of keeps investing into all these companies that they know need their chips. So they're kind of funding their own demand. And so at what point, at what point does that break? And I think a good, a good example of the tech bubble back in the day that I've heard some people reference was Cisco. So Cisco was kind of in charge of the. Back in the day was the. Actually let's bring up this chart. Since I found it, Cisco was in charge of laying fiber optics. So laying all the cables around the world of the Internet and all these fiber, were laying the fiber. So I think the way to think about it is the fiber cables were comparable today to the data centers. Everybody's like, we don't have the electricity, we don't have the data centers for all this AI. We got to go build. We got to build, we need trillions and trillions of dollars to go build all these data centers, to build all this power, to use all this AI. And so the question is that you cannot answer today, I truly believe this, you cannot answer today are all these data centers going to be useful? Are they going to be useless and what happened back in the day? And I'll bring up this chart, this is a max lifetime chart of Cisco was out here in the 2000 bubble. And Cisco has not even gotten back to the high yet of this at about 8, it's about to kiss it soon I guess. But Cisco way back in the day at $80 a share was laying all these fiber optic cables and then they didn't all get used. So they laid all these cables and then they're like, well we're going to make all this money because we're laying all this cables, everybody's going to use them. And then they laid all these cables and spent, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars, I'm sure for something that didn't get used. And then you can see that that bubble popped and then you know, God, it didn't even make a, didn't even go back to its all time high. But again Cisco has a big company, it reinvented themselves. So I don't think, I don't think anywhere is around that yet. Because if you go back, I believe historically, and I don't, we'd have to look this up, but I believe Cisco was trading at like a hundred something pe. And right now Nvidia is, you know, in the 30s and some of these, some of these companies are definitely high pe, but nothing's close to what, what Cisco was back in the day. And so I think it was a great question by our friend across the pond, Maggie, but I think it's something that is still. That story is yet to be told and so the market this year rallied on all these capex. Capex, capex. And now it seems like people are getting a little bit penalized and valuations and especially I think the private credit thing with the Blue Owl is something to watch because if these private credits teams have kind of overextended themselves, then the capex number is going to start to pull back and then earnings matter. But again, there's a debate if we bring it back to crypto, you know, is it a bug or a feature that Bitcoin doesn't have a CEO and have an earnings calendar? Yeah, so that's kind of, again, I think we've been kind of waiting and talking about it like when will bitcoin kind of break out of the macro markets and trade more like gold? And the narrative has been talked about, but again, I haven't really seen it on a massive level yet. And when could that happen? Well, when the Saudis start buying, if the US starts buying and announces all that, that's when that could be a catalyst and you probably don't want to be on the sidelines for that one. But again, you gotta do your own research and you gotta have a long term view for this stuff. And we're already at 25 minutes in and we haven't even gone halfway down our sheet.
- [29:19]
B
I mean we cook every once in a while. What can I say? You get us down some rabbit holes, we get going. But everything you said was spot on right there. I'm not ready to pack it up and worry about this AI correlated trade quite yet. But you made a great point there with like the United States buying in other countries and they start stalking it. And truly looking at Bitcoin as the digital gold that we've been pushing that narrative for so long. I don't think you're going to be, want to be on the wrong side of that trade. And then fundamentally everything is still good, everything is strong with Bitcoin. At the end of the day this is all correlated possibilities we're trying to put up on the whiteboard how things could, what could happen. But I don't know, still feel, I still feel pretty comfortable. I don't feel as bad as I did, you know, in March and April. That was like things felt bad then for some reason.
- [30:11]
A
I agree. But I also feel like we had, especially on this program, I know Brendan and I, we were, we were very like this is self inflicted, it's, it's Trump. And like, you know, you gotta understand that this guy likes the stock market. He's not gonna let this happen. So it felt like an easier, like an easier remedy was very simple of him, you know, taking off the tariffs and changing his mind and all that. This seems a little bit more. This seems a little different. It doesn't seem like there's a quick flip of the switch here. I guess the Fed could help. And then the data, you know, the data, we've missed the government data for six weeks. So there's a lot going on that I think the market needs to digest that. You know, I don't know if we're going to get a huge pop anytime soon, but again, everybody's so freaking negative that like, can some people get caught offside with the shorts? Just like some of these longs. Everybody thought going to the end of the year, October and the Q4, if you got over leveraged to the long, you've gotten absolutely wrecked. I thought, I think I tweeted something. Here, let me pull this up. There's some crazy number six. I'm sorry, more than $1 trillion has been wiped from the cryptocurrency market in the last six weeks. Trillion dollars. That's. That's a lot of money. But I think something that is getting some air out that we've been talking on the team, which we don't think is necessarily a bad thing, but it's something to watch and you have to stay educated on it, is these dats, the Treasuries, these digital asset treasuries are starting to deflate a little bit and coming back to their nav or maybe even slightly below it. So Brian, you kind of put this on the sheet. Is there anything specifically you're watching? Again, I don't think we have enough information to really get a call on this. And again, if you're buying these stocks instead of the underlying spot asset, you have to do your own research and at your own risk. Full disclosure, I know we've talked about bit mine a lot on this show. That is as definitely a lot of the errors come out of that. But again, that's what happens when there's euphoria and there's definitely euphoria around this trade in the early days.
- [32:09]
B
Yeah, euphoria. A lot of greed going in on these digital asset Treasuries. I'm not as concerned about the Bitcoin or even Ethereum dats. I'm a little bit more concerned about like some of these Treasuries that possibly put some, like some alts in there. Not to say that I'm super bearish on alts or the long term thesis for a lot of these really up and coming alternative assets. But part of me is a little bit more concerned about those dats than the bitcoin and the Ethereums of the world. And yeah, some of These are trading sub1M NAV right now. I have some like thoughts that I could really go deep and I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna do it right now about some of these alternative DATs and what their timeline could be. But I, I just think it's very clear that there was a lot of greed associated with these digital asset treasuries. The price just kept going up and up and up and R is a Ethereum dad that we talk about and I think that's right, kind of found itself right around $30. And I remember very vividly just a couple weeks ago that was well above 50. So to see this shake out a little bit isn't overly surprising. I think we all kind of felt the greed over here. We just, we weren't really sure when it was going to happen. And now we're, now we're seeing a little bit of a washout here with these dats. Again I, I still think that there's a path for success here. I think there's a way for these to be very interesting. But I'm much more interested in the bitcoin and Ethereum dats than maybe some of the alternative asset ones.
- [33:46]
A
Yeah. And then again just the data showing that, you know, I think a lot of, a lot of retail and I think people are kind of in this risk off scenario are selling. But what we're really seeing is, you know, at least this is what the data is showing is whales are stepping in to buy the on chain. Yeah, the on chain data, they've been.
- [34:04]
B
Selling on us, now they're buying, they.
- [34:07]
A
They, I mean these, these whales, they're mar. I mean a lot of them are freaking market makers. You know, whales are buying the dip. They, they want to buy below 100k. Here's a chart. So you got the number of entities with balance greater than 1000 bitcoins. So you can do the math on that with 1000 bitcoin and the price came up and they just started selling and, and we, we tracked this on the show. Again, it's a lot easier to make these huge moves when you have these larger accounts. Again, for people that are smaller time traders, you can't be going in and out of positions. And if you're not a professional trader and watching this all the time. You're going to get left behind more often than not. Plus there's tax consequences. We're not tax professionals so we can't answer those for you at all. But we were talking about, this is like, hey whales, remember the old, we had a show on it. I think it was like there's a lot of old whale wallets that just said, Hey, 120s a good enough win for me. I'm, I'm starting to sell. And that's when the market and the volatility comes up. But, and then that was my question was happening was like, well, are these whales done forever? Are they leaving? Like that's interesting. Like I, I personally wouldn't be leaving when, you know, BlackRocks just started this, you know, a year or so ago. And here's the data to show. We were worried when they were selling and wondering why. And now it's under 100k and they're buying again. So again the data, that's the fun thing of on chain data, right, is checking this stuff out. If you're a maintenance supervisor at a manufacturing facility and your machinery isn't working right, Grainger knows you need to understand what's wrong as soon as possible. So when a conveyor motor falters, Grainger offers diagnostic tools like calibration kits and multimeters to help you identify and fix the problem. With Grainger, you can be confident you have everything you need to keep your facility running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickranger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [36:01]
B
Yeah, that's, that's really a great point. That's the beauty of on chain data is to be able to track some of these major whale wallets. And of course they probably feel great. They sold at 126,000 and we were all freaking out. Why are they selling? They're selling right into the ETFs. And now that we've hit the some key numbers here, I think JP Morgan even wrote a report recently like between 92 and 94,000 was like the average price for a bitcoin to be mined. So it was kind of a built in floor. Now granted we could go a little below that, but it does feel like a floor there at least. And you can see these whale wallets rushed in right in that range. So pretty good trade. I mean if you have a thousand bitcoin you sold at 126 and you bought back your position at 92, I would not be complaining. And it doesn't surprise me. And this is this, this is just a point of reference here to show you that some smart money out there. People following this market with massive amounts of money are starting to you know get back into this position and the floor is not absolutely falling out from under us by any means.
- [37:10]
A
Yep. And then we got just a quick point. So sailors buying we got the bitcoin whales buying. The strategy buys 836 pull this up 5.6 million they bought at 102 per bitcoins. It's a little, a little higher than we're at now but again you know if he can he's going to keep buying. This is what he does. A fun stat that I pulled is historically and this is from L3 Alonso on X it's historically the best time to buy eth is when it's trading one to one with the ecosystem total value lock. The exact moment the market forgets how much value Ethereum holds is a good time to buy. And so you can see here on the chart the arrows back in I guess that was the beginning of or middle the year of 22 and then the most recent time was, was this year again in that, that last crash of Ethereum where everybody called it dead it depended pretty far below that TVL and then absolute rocket ship on the way up. We aren't there yet. We aren't there yet. It seems like some value is coming out just this natural trend it seems from the trend line but it seems like that that one to one is is looking to come home and kiss and maybe that's something to watch. I kind of like this long term chart stat but any thoughts on it Brian, any thoughts on EAM in general?
- [38:33]
B
No, I, I, I think it's, I think it falls pretty in line with like our thoughts on Bitcoin overall I, I might like bit a little bit more than Ethereum right now but this, this is a great stat to pull out. You're telling me about it earlier and definitely something I'm gonna keep my eyes on.
- [38:49]
A
Yeah I think and again that kind of goes back. I'll pull up some Salana stuff next but like as Wall Street's coming on chain as we've covered this with BlackRock Clearly JP Morgan's just flipped. We talked about it last week. The JP Morgan Stablecoin is out now. It's like all this stuff has to live on chain right now according to all the data that we could see it's showing that Solana and Ethereum are, are the two that are, are going to be there. And you can kind of see that through again. Huge Wall street whales like Tom Lee and others going for Ethereum. And then the Solana ETFs have been absolutely buzzing. Let's pull up some of those stats now. Here. This is one of the ones that you brought, Brian.
- [39:27]
B
Yeah. This is the Solana etf. Yeah. I grabbed this because, you know, Solana price is down, but it does look like I need to bring this up to see it a little bit closer for me. But it does look like it's been positive inflows with the Solana etf. And I'm pretty sure is it tomorrow that Fidelity goes live. So another really huge player in the ETF world, Fidelity is going to get into these sole ETFs. And I guess this just goes to say that smart money institutions are buying the areas that they want to buy. Right now. As we all kind of freak out on crypto Twitter and try to pull all these different charts and different correlations and why this is going down, it does feel like there's still a lot of smart money, a lot of whale money that's buying our bags. So I, I guess not financial advice, but I, I'm not looking to panic sale sell anytime soon because I'm not really panicking by any means. I'm actually looking for an opportunity.
- [40:25]
A
Yep. Yep. And then again, more of these ETFs for Solana. We've covered kind of the inflows and we'll try and pull some stats for Friday, but they've been, they've been positive as Solana's been falling with the rest of the markets. These, these ETF inflows are positive, which is really interesting. Fidelity will become, I guess, the biggest institution to go live with one of these. I think Bitwise was first. We're actually talking to Matt Hogan from Bitwise this Thursday. So that'll be a great interview coming out in the next couple weeks to talk about everything crypto, but their, their Solana ETF has been very successful, but with Fidelity going live, they'll be the biggest. And then here's Eric from talking about stuff. But again, Fidelity is going out first. 450 million so far for B Soul. Grayscale's coming into the mix. So again, these people aren't making all this, you know, work and the paperwork and going through the SEC to, to get out of the game, you know, in the first couple months, this stuff goes live and, you know, half a billion dollars for B Soul, for Bitwise, since it's been Live for again, a week or maybe two weeks now. So, you know, again, I think, I think your blue chips are places where, you know, you got to do your own research and find your own price points. But there could be some opportunities here. The only, let's see, we got, we got Portnoy. Let's pull up Bernstein. Bernstein is a fun research to talk about, Brian. So it does not feel like a cycle peak. Bernstein says Bitcoin's 25 slide reflects short term correction. Kind of goes back to the stat that we shared earlier that this is kind of, you know, I don't want to say it's an average correction per se, but if you want to talk about big 20 plus corrections, there's been multiple ones this cycle.
- [42:20]
B
Yeah, it's not something new. This isn't, you know, it's not something new to us, and it's not something new to this cycle or past cycles. This is something that happens. But you can just see there's a lot of smart money, a lot of institutions that are still dipping their toes in and getting, I shouldn't even say dipping their toes and absolutely jumping into the pool. So again, it's, I'm not overly concerned where this fear and greed meter sits at what, 15? I'm not really quite in that camp now. It's not fun to sit here in really volatile big days where it's just red and especially when you're trying to like, you know, find some real opportunity to, you know, speculate on. But overall, it's, it's, it's a slide that if you've been in crypto, that isn't unheard of. It's something that happens a lot and we usually, usually washes it out a little bit and we rebound harder and stronger than ever.
- [43:14]
A
Yeah, I agree, and I know that you mentioned this, but just a side note for the administration, you kind of talked about this before. You know, Trump, I only care about one thing. We will be number one in crypto again. I think we've talked about this on the show a lot recently where they did a lot in the first couple months. And then it feels like crypto's kind of been put on the back burner a little bit because, you know, it seems like the Trump family has gotten to set up their crypto and gotten their big wins. But I don't think that's the end of the story. I think we're, we're in the middle of it. If you want to put it innings in baseball, I, it feels like we're maybe in the. Maybe in the fourth. I think there's still a lot of game to go for making sure that. And again, take politics aside, a lot of politicians have enriched themselves. Nancy Pelosi is obviously the biggest joke on Twitter with that, with their just, you know, outstanding gains over the years. But, you know, this is what politicians do. They're, they're really out for themselves, sadly for the most part. And so I would place a bet that there's more to come from that, you know, from that sense of just kind of helping yourself win and that. But that would be, you know, giving the Runway for bitcoin and other, you know, cryptos to go higher. The most interesting thing. And again, if you followed us on X, you would have found this out on Friday because my Twitter fingers were staying hot. But the something you should know, and this will be our last topic of the day, the things you should know if we click this. Bitcoin is now Harvard's largest reportable public investment. And then so, so big. So Harvard's been buying a lot of bitcoin folks, and these endowments are crazy. You could, you know, make the case that some of these endowments are a little out of control, but it is what it is. And so as Harvard continues to buy bitcoin and the number one thing, it's important to know that buying stuff for this endowment takes a long process. And I remember when Harvard first bought. But again, it takes a long process to go through the board and get the okay to do this stuff. But now their bitcoin position is larger than Microsoft. It's larger than Amazon, Nvidia and others. The total endowment is much larger and includes private investments that are public reported. But yesterday's BTC disclosure will be widely discussed by asset managers and other 13 filings as we bring up these stats. Brian, what, what jumps out of you as this huge endowment is in on bitcoin. And again, will this kind of spring other endowments to join and kind of like talk with countries? Once one country does it, they're all going to do it. I wonder if this will lead the way for other endowments.
- [45:52]
B
Yeah, I think it's absolutely will lead the way. And I think there's other areas in a lot of major corporations and countries looking to buy bitcoin. And what did we see? They bought it through IBIT, I believe so. 257% increase as of last June. So they got almost. They have a half a billion dollars in bitcoin. What's Harvard see coming? I think they see a very Bullish outlook for this, their bitcoin bags in all the reasons that we talk about it. And it's a fixed supply. You just need a few endowments, a few countries, millionaires, billionaires to start buying this up. We get possibly a strategic reserve announcement. All of a sudden we're just ripping like we've never even seen. And I think Harvard isn't just like blindly throwing blank checks around. I think they've done their due diligence. They know exactly what they're getting themselves into. And this is bullish. This is extremely bullish in my eyes. And just goes to show you, there's a lot of smart money that's continuing to buy into the cryptocurrency digital asset story, the bitcoin story. And I mean I'm a permeable. I can't say that they're wrong because I believe in this space very full heartedly and I believe it's going to only be a very smart move. We're going to look back on this in a few years from now and talk about how sharp it was by Harvard.
- [47:21]
A
Yeah, yeah. The heart, I mean you could call it sharp by Harvard. And then we're always watching our friends in Germany when they sold around, I think it was like 55 or 60k bitcoin. What a sell.
- [47:34]
B
What a sell.
- [47:35]
A
But I think that's. We'll put a plug on that. We got a lot of stuff coming Friday, like we mentioned, just the more macro stuff. And then we're going to dive into some meme wins that Brian and Joe have had because again, there's still winners out there. Like volatility does bring opportunity if you have the right strategy. And we'll end on a funny note here. I wanted to give a shout out. I wanted to give a shout out to our speech coach apparently. BCX999. Right, right, right, right. Please stop adding the word right randomly after making a statement. When you say right after making a statement it sounds like you're unsure of what you're saying. It's terrible. Vocal crutch. And then I commented back, anything for our favorite vocal coach. Thank you so much for believing in us. So Brian, that was for, that was for Brendan and I getting called out in the comments there. I love a good hate comment but right.
- [48:29]
B
I, you know, I have my fair share of vocal crush crutches. I editing videos every once in a while. I was like, oh man, I could tell that's like a segue or a vocal crutch. Well, doing our best here to Figure that all out, right?
- [48:42]
A
I just appreciate I we read all the comments. I'm not somebody that says I hide from the comments. I love it. Comment away. I'm in there. I'll be with you. Hopefully it's positive. If not hopefully it's at least funny. Making fun of us. I love this stuff from bcx99, but that's gonna do it for us today, everybody. We really do appreciate you guys tuning in. It's been fun having a little time with you. I mean, wow, the chat's bumping. Deb's happy. She caught it. Grant's throwing in a penguin. You know what that means. Maggie, Deb, thank you all for joining and a lot of other people joining today too. We're gonna be back Friday, Friday at I believe it's 1pm let's actually just check the schedule and get it down. 11:12:1. Yep, 1:00pm EST will be live. We're gonna promote it. So the east coast lobsters here. Hell yeah. What's up, man? So we'll see you guys at 1pm we'll let this kind of chop out for the week. It'll be a fun episode as it always is on Friday. We really do appreciate you joining every episode. If you're interested, check the links below. Please subscribe like the video and we're going to talk to you guys all later this week. Please enjoy the rest of your day and we'll talk to you soon. Bye Bye, everybody.
- [49:58]
D
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