← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Fear & Greed Index RECORD, Google Trends Shocking Data, Technical Analysis Recap
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- [00:00]
A
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- [03:31]
B
All right everyone, welcome back to the crypto rundown sponsored by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. We hope everyone is having a fantastic week so far. A lot of volatility in the crypto market, but that's why we're here in the first place. We're here to talk about everything from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. The so that you all can know everything that's going on. And of course we package it all for free in under an hour. And all that we ask is that if you like these episodes and you like these rundowns that we do over here, A stick around by hitting that like and subscribe button and B, check out some of our other content. We're constantly doing different rundowns with our different analysts. We're also doing all kinds of different podcast and YouTube tutorials and market updates. You name it. We got a lot going on over here. And again on YouTube. Our goal is to just give it all away for free. So if you do like it, consider sticking around. But man, we got an action packed episode in store for all of you today. I'm joined by my good old compadre over here, Mr. TiVo. And TiVo, we're warming up to this bear market. We're Growing stronger. How we feeling?
- [04:37]
A
Yeah, man, exciting. It's a good, it's a good Friday. The, you know, the, the prices aren't where we necessarily wish and hope they'd be, but the vibes are really high here at Crypto101. We've had a great week of episodes, honestly, dating back to last Friday with the entire team. Brian and I did one earlier this week. We got you this week. And honestly, the news floats, keeps, keeps coming. Like there's a lot to talk about, there's a lot to break down and I think it's a great digestion period. So I think it's easy enough to kind of jump right into it. This week was interesting in the sense that we hit record lows for some of the fear and greed index indexes across crypto. So we'll pull up both of them. We'll start here at the alternative one. Got all the way down to a five. Five. Did you feel, did you feel like it was a five? I mean, look at that last month, neutral 48. Just absolutely. We've been in extreme fear now for a week plus. And then if you scroll down here, you can kind of see the historical. We're at, we're at one year lows. I mean, we've gotten down to, you know, man, back in all the other different bear markets that we've experienced all the way dating back to 2018. So do you feel like, like, honest, I'm gonna put you on the couch, A little psychiatry. Do you feel, do you feel that? Do you feel that extreme fear?
- [06:00]
B
I, I feel extreme fear. I do feel that. Does it feel like it should be the lowest fear and greed index reading that we have ever seen in all of history on Crypto? I would say no. I, I again, I think it's correct to label us and put us in that extreme fear category. It's understandable. The liquidations keep happening. There's FUD around all these different areas. You know, we talked about it, we had a whole rundown episode on it last Friday. But should we be at the lowest level of extreme fear in all of bitcoin and crypto's history? I, I don't think so. I think that if you look at it, and that was like a big point I tried to make last Friday was look at the fundamentals and then look at the technicals, and I just don't think they properly reflect each other. Whereas in prior crashes you could have easily said, okay, it's more understandable that we are this low, that we've Seen this much drawdown that we're this deep on the fear and greed index. You know, let's just look at a couple of those past examples. The tariff crash makes sense. Big fears towards anything that's risk on. Understandable. The Japanese carry unwinding about, you know, what, a year and a half ago, you know, even more than that. Understandable, right? Huge part of the world's economy runs through that trade. People wanting to be more risk off because of the uncertainty. FTX blowing up, Covid crash, the whole world shut down. Alameda crash, Terra Luna crash, you name it. These massive unwind events where it's like, okay, it's understandable now you look at it. And then you also had like record levels of, you know, like lower activity and all these other things blowing up. Now you look at it and you know, some of the stats that we showed in last Friday's rundown was saying Bitcoin doing more transactions than MasterCard and Visa, almost more than both of those two combined and more dollars transacted than either one individually. Ethereum hitting all time high active users or daily users all time high transaction counts, gas fees under $0.01. Solana breaking records, hyper liquid breaking records. Like all these statistics on the fundamental side and then it's like massive crypto infrastructure is in the works, all these different things. The government's for it, the SEC is for it, it's being talked about all over Davos by all the biggest asset managers and banks on the planet. And then you just look at it from the fundamental side, this side, this time around, and you're like, should this be at the lowest point of fear that it has ever been with all that in mind? And I have a hard time justifying that. And I think that what we've seen here is crypto become oversold because of panic selling and not because of what is actually reflected through the fundamentals. And then the other half of this is that for everyone that's wondering, like what's the deal with these liquidation events right now? You know, the liquidations events are real, like they're pure selling pressure. However, the original one, the original liquidation event of 1010, October 10th, that one was not true. It was not a true reflection of selling pressure, meaning that it was artificially caused. And we've, we've talked about this a lot, so I don't want to go too deep into it, TiVo, but for a quick little reminder, what happened was Binance had a kind of like back end systems error where it devalued how much the US dollar was worth specifically stable coins like usde. And it said okay, well like let us change the value of this. Or the value of it changed from a dollar all the way down to like 50 or 60 cents at its lowest. And so every perpetual contract, all these leveraged contracts that are measured against, you know, what the dollar is worth or what these stable coins are worth, that throws all of them off, it starts mass liquidating everyone. It starts a snowball effect. And essentially they had this massive drawdown that wiped out all of the longs. And it wasn't necessarily because of pure selling pressure but because of systems errors. But nonetheless all those people got liquidated and that was the huge thing that started this all. So to answer your main point, you know, as I'll hand it back to you, I don't think it makes sense for us to be the most over. And I even oversold. Well, I think you could say oversold, right? Rsi, second lowest point it's ever been. Macd, lowest point it's ever been. Both on the one day timescales fear and greed index right alongside that lowest point it's ever been. Is it worthy of, of that kind of fear? I would say it's worth being in extreme fear or deep in the fear territory. Lowest point. That's where I disagree.
- [10:44]
A
Yeah, I, I actually agree with you totally. I think it's from more of a psychological exercise. I can see how we get there because of all like, you know, it kind of felt going into the election cycle back from the Nakai trade, I think it was the August brought us back into the 50s and going into the election for the president it was like, all right, well one admit this, this, this administration will be pro crypto. This one's basically anti crypto. Like place your bets. And we, we were, you know, we tried to do our best with the research and, and you know, we, we thought that you know, it was going to come out on our side and it did. And it was a great pressure valve of release. Right. Going from the, the 50s all the way up to you know, 120 is a great ride. And, and I think if I look back and I'm just, again it's my opinion, so this is kind of what I'm thinking. It was like, oh, now, now we can't lose, right? It's, it's just going to go up forever type of thing. And so I think part of this fear and greed index hitting record lows is kind of just ingesting the new information of like what people thought so if you take a shorter timescale of it, it's like oh well now you know, with the pro administration and bitcoin bills and the, you know, the, the crypto capital of the world and a bitcoin reserve like we won't, you know, ever have, we'll never go down again type of vibe. And I think people are obviously getting shook and maybe overexposed. I think like exactly. You said it's over leveraged, right? And not even just over leveraged and placing bets and almost gambling. It's like we played a clip the other day about all the people how many loan products like in the last year how many new loan products for, for bitcoin was kind of put on the market for retail to get access to and you know, you didn't maybe got tied up in that and you kind of got margin called and you know all the different things from Binance and all that. So I, I agree with you but also I can see how we, we are here in a way but I, I do agree. I just, I personally felt way worse during you know, FTX and some other times in the market and, and, and less clarity and pun intended because of the clarity act. I think, you know we've talked about and we'll keep monitoring could hopefully lead us out of this. But yeah, I don't, I think it feels, it's, it's wild to see, you know, the same, the Fear and Greed index is just the same kind of measuring of data. Get, get that low.
- [13:09]
B
Well, yeah, I mean I would agree. I sent over another one and I want to take a look at the Fear and Greed index compared to some of these other times because it's always good to look at things with perspective.
- [13:22]
A
Right.
- [13:23]
B
And so you can see okay, well where is the Fear and Greed index been during some of these other crashes? And we showed this on like the line chart earlier but it's a little bit harder to see it now. You can see it like just all side by side. Okay, well FTX we were at 12 Covid 9. The 1718 crash that I was around for that one. I was making videos then before crypto 101. That was a gnarly one. We're talking 80 plus percent drawdown in Bitcoin we're only at 52%. It was drastically worse. Mount Gox in 2012's crash. And again this isn't even including the 2019 crash, the, the Japanese carry trade crash, the tariff crash. The first pullback that we had after the, the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Like there were some other gnarly ones that you could include in here that got the Fear and Greed Index really, really low. And this raises the ultimate question though, Thibaut of saying, what should we be doing? And I always want to give a disclaimer and disclosure here. We're not financial advisors, we are not your financial advisors. We're never trying to give financial advice. But the way that I think through this is that the big question that I've kind of had to ask myself is, should I want to be a buyer here? And what does the data suggest? Well, the data would suggest that anytime that the Fear and Greed Index, the RSI or the MACD have ever gotten to these levels historically that has reached awfully close to the buying point. Now it's important to understand that indicators are typically lagging in nature. So they typically, not always, but typically front run the bottom a little bit so you get the bottom signals firing on these things and then the bottom comes a little bit later. Well, here we are, you know, we're kind of reaching this point and you could say, okay, when we hit this point on the Fear and Greed Index during these other times, what would have been the, the, the likely scenario? Well, I think if you would have bought in at any of these events, you would have looked out about, you know, a couple months. Let's, let's make it really bold and say you would have looked out a year later and you would have been very happy. If you would have bought when the Fear and greed index was a 9 during the COVID crash. Zoom out. You would have been really happy. In the big scheme of things, you would have done this during ftx. You would have been happy. You would have done it during 2018 when Bitcoin fell to $3,000. You would have been pretty, pretty happy afterwards. And the same goes for a lot of these. And so people always like to say, oh, but this time it's different. This time it's different because of X, Y and Z. I've heard that every single time I have, the question I have for everyone is why should this time be any different? When I would argue that we've seen worse things in the past. You know, some of the largest exchanges mount GOX at the time, huge FTX at the time, huge. One of the pinnacles of exchanges, you know, the COVID crash, the whole world shutting down, you know, all these other things. Why should this time be any different? Why should it now become unrecoverable? And that's what I have a hard time swallowing is this question of people trying to bring up the idea of, oh, but this time it's different. And I think there's two ways. Good.
- [16:48]
A
No, no, finish your, finish your thought, finish your thoughts. I'm sorry.
- [16:51]
B
Well, I was gonna say there's two ways to look at it. Is this time different for crypto? No. Is this time different from maybe some altcoins? And I think you can say yes, because the point I want to make is that will crypto go on? Absolutely. Will every single altcoin that you love and invested in recover the way that it, that it would have in the last cycle? I'd say the answer there is no. There's going to be a lot of altcoins that don't recover from this. There's also going to be a number of altcoins that do recover from this. I think the, the fear that comes out of this is that every cycle, what you tend to see is that everyone's favorite altcoins and the ones that are the most successful, it tends to change from cycle to cycle. For the general altcoin population, you've seen this every cycle. It's nothing new. But will the crypto industry and probably a lot of the large caps recover? Historically, the answer has always been yes.
- [17:41]
A
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- [20:37]
A
No? Great thought. And this, I mean this chart is awesome because thinking about, you know, a 10 or a 9 back in those days compared to a 5 today is almost, almost, almost comical in a way. And I guess my main point is if you go to the bottom side, so the COVID crash, FTX 2026 or even the whole chart, it's like each time it's gotten this low, there's been, you know, more and more reason to almost believe. Like the top of the chart is just, we'll call it the straight up old days, like straight up wild wild West. I think you can make the case back Then, like, you had no idea whether it was going to come back or not. Like, it's more of a belief of what it is, more than, like, oh, I can see the future of it, in my opinion. Then the COVID crash is the first one. We're like, okay, like, yeah, Monday morning quarterback. You know, I. I would have taken out as much money, loan credit cards and everything and bought any asset. But if. If I'm being honest, like, back, it was scary. Like, it was very skewed. No idea what was going on. And I, at the time, I lived in New York City, and they're shutting the work down, they're sending people home. Like, it was. It was a confusing time. So it's like, it wasn't very crypto specific. It was like, is this the end of my life? Like, no more concerts, no more, you know, going to the bars. It wasn't like, crypto specific or even finance specific. It was like an existential question. And then the FTX one, when I came. I came on board before that for crypto 101. So we were all working together at the time, and definitely it was super scary, the initial, like, drawdown and the bloodbath of the bare market and all that stuff. And I was definitely questioning a little bit. Like, the fear was. Was very high. But credit to us, in a way, I gave. I got. I got guidance and I got belief from this podcast because that's when we started having on, like, Matt Hogan's of the World, and people coming in and talking about, like, hey, we see a pathway to the bitcoin etf. And that was, you know, that was around the. That wasn't the $15,000 mark necessarily for bitcoin, but that was around, like, the 20 to 30 range. Like, Matt Hogan was coming on this show and talking about the. The pathway that he saw and just really diving into the. The community of Crypt Nation and getting information from you, Bryce, and just, you know, these. These podcast episodes really, really solidified my belief of, like, all right, yeah, we're getting out of this. And I. I kind of, in a way, feel very similar here. I. I think what's always cool about every cycle is there's always something new. And. And we've talked about this the last couple weeks with the AI trade and software and kind of how. I think bitcoin got tied up a little bit in that along with just general, you know, market dynamics. But is there. It's. It's more of like a narrative. It's kind of like we taught. We've hammered home the software thing. But let's go back to like when Geo healthcare stocks. So when the administration came in, you know, it was, you know, again, not to get political, but it was Bobby Kennedy. He's going to be the health person. He's going to, you know, pull the strings and rip out all the, all the healthcare stocks tanked. Now the healthcare stocks are the best performers of, of like the year to date. It's like health care and oil. And then the GLP1s came out and they're like, oh my God, everybody's going to get super skinny. Nobody's going to buy Coca Cola, nobody's going to buy potato chips. And all those stocks tanked. And then what are the best performers right now, year to date? Staples. It's like, oh my God, did Coca Cola invent the cure for cancer? It's like, no, they're just undervalued and the value is coming back. And so with all the bullish fundamentals and all the efforts that we put into making these episodes and doing the interviews, I'm really starting to come around with the belief. It's like, okay, like the money is flowing elsewhere right now. This is, this is a tale as old as time. Do the research. Like you said, not everything's going to be a winner when it comes back. But like I just think there's so much bullishness and the future and like again, we're not, we're not digging for interviews to try to find one person talking about the pathway to Bitcoin etf. Like go look at all of our shows, how many of these big banks we have some more that we're going to talk about in a little bit of just every. Everybody's building in this space. So it's like the price allocation versus the fundamentals does not make sense to reiterate exactly what you said. So it's super, it's super exciting. I feel very calm. Like the fear and greed index at an all time low. Bren and I feel super confident being here and happy to come on and make these episodes, which I think is a good sign.
- [25:03]
B
I would agree. And I think that's how it should be given where we are. And that's probably a sign of being somewhat oversold. That doesn't necessarily mean, hey, we can't go lower. But I think we've reached the point where you really got to start looking at this and say historically, if the bottom isn't in, we should be getting real, real close to it. Where a place where buyers should Be comfortable from a longer term perspective. And listen, you know, we don't, we don't typically like to talk about leverage on this show. That's not the whole point of it. But we've reached the point now where me and you are kind of going back and forth, a little bit of banter, talking about different leaps, positions, looking at the crypto market saying, hey, two years out from now, right? I think one to two years out is typically the conversations we've had is at some point in the next one to two years, do we think that a lot of these cryptos and crypto related positions can be higher up than where they're at today? I don't think that's a hot take to say, hey, in the next year or two. These things can. Bitcoin can be higher than 65,000 in the next year or two. Bitcoin or Ethereum can be higher than 3000 in the next year or two. Solana can be higher than 79 bucks or whatever it is. I don't think that's a hot take. I think we've reached just an incredible area of value where we've even started to have these conversations behind the scenes and be like, hey, this is something that we're, you know, interested in. And it's because the real money is made after the crash has happened. Everyone's always more comfortable buying while it's high for whatever reason. They're always the most afraid to buy when it's low. They're always the most concerned, should I be selling while it's low? When in reality, again, you know, never financial advice. It could go down more like there could always be a worst case scenario. But historically people have this inverse way of thinking about it where they think the least amount of value or the worst time to buy is when it's low. And it just doesn't necessarily make sense for any kind of asset that has a large term uptrend.
- [26:58]
A
I'll say this whenever me and you start texting or slacking each other. LITTLE Degen plays It's worked out since we've been here in the last three and a half, four years. So super exciting. Something that we'll watch. Something that I was always. We have, we haven't pulled this up in a while, Brandon, but something that I was always super interested in when things were going well is the Google Trends. And there was all this style. Google Trends doesn't tell anything, it doesn't give you anything. And, and I think we kind of disproved that, that it is you know, it is a good tool in the toolbox. And I find, I just, I just was kind of thinking about, you know, trying to bring something different to the table for the show today. And I was like, let's check, let's check Google trends. And I was like, I was actually surprised. I was surprised at what I was seeing. So let's pull it up. So I got in the blues. Bitcoin and this is Google trends. And then the red, they're orange, there is bitcoin price. So this is over five years. So over a five year period, bitcoin and bitcoin price are at, I mean you're going to say it's, it's at its highs because, you know, the 20, 21 and the 22, the last bull market was at 100, but you're telling me that it's at 80 and then go and switch this to the past year. I think yeah, it's, it was, it hit a hundred. I think people always like, oh, nobody googles bitcoin anymore. They just open up their, you know, their apps or their brokerages. Nobody Googles it. Like, I think we disproved that before in the bull market. But I kind of like this. I kind of like it kind of. It kind of refers back to the bitcoin dead chart that we pull up sometimes. People are loving the demise of it and googling it and salivating at watching it drop. Like, I think this is, I think this is good counter data.
- [28:44]
B
Well, there's the saying that's like capitulation is usually the final phase. Right. Everyone says you need full capitulation before the market bottoms. And I think a lot of this feeds into it. Everyone's like, is bitcoin dead? You're starting to see the headlines, see them from different financial or news places. You saw it from Burry saying this and that's usually a sign when buries. Michael Burry's coming out talking about a crash. Like he has a big track record of being wrong and usually calling the bottom whenever he calls the crash ever since 2008, like he hit on that, he hit on 2008 and then ever since then he's been trying to call other crashes and it's usually like when he calls it, it's usually close to the bottom. So I mean, who knows, right? You know, we meme, we joke, but I think you make a pretty good point here. Looking at Google trends and people are interested in what's going on and you're seeing it uptick again.
- [29:41]
A
Yeah, well, let's let, let's, let's transition into the charts. Just wanted to give a shout out to the chat. Good morning. Here we got J. S Abori. Thanks brother. Taylor's here, Jim's here, Brett's here, Matt's here. I know Grant's somewhere out there as well. Good morning to everybody. If you could just give this video a like and if you're new, bottom right, hit the logo and subscribe. Brendan's pulling up the charts. He is our technical analysis guru. And you know, obviously we do this for free. We're here for crypto101 in the YouTube but if you are interested in doing a more intensive course. I saw a question actually from, I think it was Jim about asking about like stop limit orders. Maybe we can touch that on the end. But if you're somebody that really wants to deep dive into this, the charts and technical analysis and trading. Brendan has a six week trading course. It's an intensive, you get to learn all the charts and you know it basically you get to work with him not one on one but with a small group. There's lives, so there's two lives a week where you can ask some questions about specific tokens and ask questions like Jim and get the, the, the answers that you need with Brendan. All while going through a six week intensive to learn the charts and the signals. It's the micro bull run course. So if you're interested in Brendan's technical course, the cohort is open. It's not open all the time so I put a link in the bio for that. But Brendan, a little tee up there to show us the charts and they're looking a little green today.
- [31:07]
B
Bitcoin up three and a half percent back to 68,500 bucks. Rallying with the rest of the market here. Ethereum up over 4%. Solana up over 5 and a half. XRP about 3%. Ish. But as you kind of see on my sidebar over here, everything's green, at least several percent for the most part. There's a few outliers here and there, but everything getting a little bit of a rally here. A couple of interesting points here to make TiVo kind of before we begin, you know, this is what the chart has looked like since the October 10th crash. You have the initial move down, consolidation, another move down consolidation. Now another leg down kind of happening over in here. And this is the big moving question, is this the bottom? Because you kind of look out at what we've done and I don't think that there's enough data. Also, apologies in advance. Trading view has been lagging all morning, so it's going to be a little bit slower. But as you kind of zoom out here, this is the big move in question. There's not enough data yet to say, okay, is a bottom actually in. We've only had about a week's worth of data actually exactly a week's worth of data since the bottom came in last week. So I still would argue that that's probably not enough to say, oh my gosh, it's so obvious that a bottom's in anything like that. We just don't have enough data yet. You know, I would probably say we just need a little bit more to kind of get an idea of how reliable this bottom could be. But there's a couple of things to highlight. You look at this and saying, okay, well we've come to the $60,000 area before. We've kind of came up here, hit all time highs, rejected. Came up here, hit all rejected. We came back up here again, spent the bulk of this consolidation around the sixty thousand dollar price range. And we spent a long time here. Well then after we eventually broke out of this, you know, prior all time highs, big consolidation at all time highs, well, we broke out of this, tested it three different times over here as support, you know, now we're kind of coming back into the same zone that we've spent so much of our history looking at how important this range is. And now we're finally coming back to it and saying, okay, well we're testing this. And because of this, you know, one of the big things I wanted to highlight was that you can look at this from like a volume point of control standpoint. So most people look at volume by a time and so that's going to be at the bottom of your chart. I would say let's look at it by volume, by price. And that shows us these volume points of control where volume has been concentrated at specific price ranges. And you tend to see price move, you know, pretty steadily in between what we call these volume points of control. So over here you can see, hey, there's a big old spike of volume point of control. That's where we consolidated at. Well, as soon as we broke beneath that volume point of control, we fell directly from this one, directly to this volume point of control. And coincidentally enough, that's exactly where that those prior consolidation areas were. And this is exactly where we fell to. And you can see price hovering around right in here. I think if there's anywhere for there to be a major support. It's back down in here. We tapped around 59-60k on the low end, which is kind of the lower end of this thing. I would say it ranges from around 61 to 62k on the low end to around 68,69,000 ish on the high end. But this is one of those big areas of support that I think people should watch out for. You know, on the upside here you're going to have some minor levels at maybe 75, 76 and then some bigger levels as you get into the low 80s, low to mid 80 thousands again. But you know, bitcoin is at a pretty big level over here where I think it's worth turning some heads and really starting to pay attention. Now on top of that, you look at some of these things I was touting about earlier. The one day MACD or excuse me, the one day RSI hitting the lowest levels that we have seen in a really, really long time. The second lowest level that we've seen I believe all time. I know it's the second lowest level that we've seen in the last decade. It might be the third lowest level of all time. I can actually go to another chart to probably figure that out real fast. But it might not be worth it. With how much trading view is lagging this morning. Everyone's trying to find out what's happening with price, but so happens we get.
- [35:19]
A
A couple green candles.
- [35:21]
B
Say it again.
- [35:23]
A
That's what happens when you get a couple green candles.
- [35:26]
B
It is, yeah. You start rallying here on bitcoin. I mean it's really moving now, almost back up to 69,000. But as you zoom out over here, again like the second or third lowest point that we've ever seen. And I'll just go back to the original chart because it doesn't look like it wants to play nice this morning. But yeah, so the MACD at the second lowest point that it's been in the last decade. You zoom out to the MACD for example. This is at the lowest point that it's ever been in all of history. And you start looking at these factors alongside the fear and greed index and you're like, man, well historically when we've hit these areas, it's been really, really good opportunities. And I think you can see this even more clearly. And this is something we showed last Friday, just looking at the weekly chart of the relative strength index over here for bitcoin and saying, hey, well you know, historically on this chart, where do we like to find Market bottoms and where do we like to find market tops? And we zoom out on this and it shows us in like a pretty clear manner of like, hey, where do the market bottoms and tops tend to happen since 2010? And it's like, okay, well obviously up in here the market tops happen and obviously down in here, almost every market bottom that has ever happened. And again, you look at this from the 2011 cycle, the 2015 cycle, the 2019 bottom, the 2022 bottom, and now you're looking at it and it's like, is it a coincidence that this tends to happen every four years? You know, potentially, potentially not. But you have it happen in 2011, 2015, four years later, 2018, at the very, very end of 2018. So you have, you know, almost four years later, then you have the next one 2022 and then 2026. So the time periods all align. The exact area of the RSI where it also, where it always bottoms out is also aligning. And so it just feels like it's being made more complicated than it needs to be. And there's all these external factors and this and that. When in reality I would just say, hey, let's just simplify it. Let's just look at the past data since bitcoin's inception and let's look at all of that data and say, where is it historically bottomed out? And I would say at this point, almost, almost all, not all, almost all of the signs are firing, saying it is getting to the point where if it has not bottomed, it is getting mighty close to that area. And then you might have to factor in a little bit of lag for these indicators. But it's kind of screaming at you saying, hey, this is the signs that have fired while bitcoin and crypto was bottomed in previous cycles. You should probably be paying attention to this thing now. And that's the way that I'm looking at it. Again, Bitcoin continuing to accelerate.69,100 now. And anyway, so I say all this and then the final piece of data that I'll give here, TiVo is the 200 week moving average, which again we, we have talked about, but I want to make sure everyone's aware of this stuff. Where is bitcoin bottomed out since the 200 weeks moving average inception? Will you look at it? 2015 bottom tier again, 2015 second bottom there. 18 bottom of the 200 week moving average Covid crash bottomed off of this. The 2022 market cycle came to this area, spent a Little bit of time beneath it, but overall marked the rough area of the bottom. And now we're back at this again and we're, we're bouncing off this and seeing buying pressure. So I would again look at all these different stats, you know, rsi, macd, Fear and Greed Index, moving averages, candle charts, the spacing of how much it hap of the spacing of like when we get these crashes, like everything's kind of pointing us towards this direction of saying you gotta see some area of value down here. Again, maybe there's a lag, maybe we need to go a little bit lower and stuff, maybe there's one final move. But you know, for the most part I'm fairly convinced that we're at some sort of area of opportunity here. And that's the way that I'm looking at it. So I mean, there's so much to talk about on the technicals. I'm already getting myself wound up, you can tell because I start speaking louder and start speaking faster, but I get excited because again, like, dude, that's where the money is made. And I get excited about it because I think that there's just some real opportunity here and we're seeing developments on the fundamentals and the technicals.
- [39:41]
A
Just from taking your class and doing this with you for so long, I do know that historically, you know, sometimes we do break below that 200 day moving average, but then historically that's, you know, that is, you know, not financial advice by any means, but that's the time to, to really start buying. And kind of circling back to the beginning of our conversation around fear and greed, I could see that like final flush, kind of what we said, we're like, oh, I can't believe that we're out of five. Like it's not as bad as it used to be. Yeah, I'm scared the price action sucks. But I don't feel, I'm not as scared as like I have been before. So I feel like, you know, again it's just two friends talking crypto, everybody else has their opinions out there. You know, obviously if you're completely over leveraged and you got wiped out, you feel as worse as you ever been. But I could see, you know, again, I think it depends on the macro. There's a lot of forces. So no, again, nobody has a crystal ball and guarantee you this or that with price action, they're lying to you. If they say that it's, you know, you get some good news, good macro or a good specific crypto, you know, something happens with regulation or the bitcoin reserve, it goes, it runs. Is there another, you know, macro force event that could bring bitcoin lower? Absolutely. And then I think that's when you really start to get everybody panicking for that final, you know, dip below the 200 day moving average. But super, super exciting stuff. And it's always like when you're getting record lows on these metrics, it's, you got to pay attention. Right?
- [41:04]
B
Yeah. And one final think you, you made a great point where we could see one more move lower. Right. We don't have a full confirmation. We see a lot of data saying, hey, the market looks good. One thing that I think would be really important, TiVo, to your point to watch out for is if bitcoin's price action has one more move lower. The number one thing I would watch out for there is looking at the one day relative strength index. And a lot of the time what we see is something called bullish divergence or hidden bullish divergence some people like to call it. And that's when price action moves to a lower low. But the relative strength index moves to a higher low in the oversold territory. And what that shows is that hey, despite price action actually falling further, the bears strength is weaker than it was previously at. So it shows this false sense of security where strength from the bears is weaker despite a deeper push lower. And that usually acts as the final catalyst for a bottoming event. And so I'd really keep an eye on that saying, hey, if we do see bitcoin roll over towards the lows or in the new lows, so long as there is less strength than what we saw last time. So a higher, higher than a 15 on the one day RSI, I would say that that actually tends to present a pretty screaming buy opportunity. So really good point to kind of make there as we.
- [42:29]
A
Yeah, love it. To transition us into our next topic, could you pull up uni swap and show us a week or two chart on uni swap? Because it kind of ties into us transitioning into the, the news that we saw this week.
- [42:41]
B
Yeah, absolutely, yeah. Uni swap making a move here. Up six and a half percent on the day. Let's take a quick look at the chart. Getting some, some volatility back into it with some of these wicks, you know, bottom and top side wicks. But this is what uni swaps looking like. You know, I know they had some good news come out. They're up more than most other cryptos today, about six and a half percent to the upside. I know that they've seen. What about on the week on the weekly chart? They are. Let's take a quick look here. You know, down overall, still red on the week, but since last week's low it looks like they are up about 22%.
- [43:23]
A
Okay, yeah, that was that giant. No, go to that top wick there. The red top wick like jumped on this news. I think from the bottom wick to that top wick there, that's probably like what, 40%?
- [43:34]
B
61, man.
- [43:36]
A
Yeah. So that just wanted to highlight that of like some volatility in the name and, and I can take over from here, Brendan, to share. So Uni Swap had a very interesting announcement with, with BlackRock, it seems. So Uni Swap surged obviously you saw 60 on the charts there, but in 30 minutes it was up 40 after BlackRock enabled DeFi trading of its Biddle Fund via Uni Swap and announced plans to purchase an undisclosed amount of tokens. So I was seeing this on the timeline as I was pretty surprised. I mean at one point, remember back, back before this administration and when Gary Gensler was attacking crypto, Uni Swap seemed to be on kind of the chopping block, especially for the US and, and then I went and looked and just tons of news around it on the official Uni Swap blog, AHU Finance, everybody was talking about it. So you know, UNISWAP Labs and BlackRock, you know, working together on, you know, some type of strategic integration. So I thought, I thought that was really fascinating. Obviously I don't think it immediately deserves like, you know, a 60 pump and you saw that retracement come back down for the token price. But again it's the fundamentals of the integration of, of these, you know, legacy banks that it goes back to our point of like, you know, when you're at a historical level of fear and greed, but you see partnerships and integrations like this, it's, it's hard to ignore.
- [45:05]
B
Yeah, it is. And you know, for reference here, I mean they're the largest asset manager on the planet, about $10 trillion in assets under management. They are the biggest. They tend to set the standard. They've had this Biddle Fund and if you're not aware of what it is, think of it as like an on chain money market fund or something like that. It's probably the best way to describe it. And it's. I believe it has, last time I checked, I think it had a couple of billion dollars inside of it. So it's not small by any Means. But yeah, I mean I'm looking at it. It looks like it had, yeah, several billion dollars inside of it. So it's not small by any means, but it doesn't hold like specific cryptocurrencies and I think there tends to be confusion about it. So it doesn't hold crypto. It's more of like a money market account that's on chain, but still coming from the world's largest asset manager. They're interested in this stuff and I mean, TiVo just a couple of days ago for everyone that's listening. The podcast isn't out yet, but we just talked to Franklin Templeton too. Another one of the world's largest asset managers. Almost $2 trillion in assets under management. And we talked to them about this stuff and they were like, guys, we are genuinely interested. You gotta listen to the pod when it comes out in a couple weeks. But they're like, guys, we are genuinely interested. We don't think this is going anywhere. We are trying to actively do more. And if Franklin's doing that, you're obviously seeing blackrock do this. You're seeing this from other people. You know, JP Morgan's talking about it, Fidelity is talking about this stuff. Like it's very. They're making it as good, obvious as they possibly can. They're telling us, which gives me more security. So they're doubling down. They're saying, hey, let's enable trading for this. Let's allow people to do this on chain. It's already a tokenized fund. This seems like a step in the right direction. And BlackRock wanting to be more plugged into crypto and giving people more access. So, you know, is blackrock perfect? Probably not, right? I know sometimes they get maybe a bad reputation about certain things, but the one thing you want is you want probably one of the largest asset managers at least in your corner and not necessarily against you. So I think you gotta look at that as a positive.
- [47:21]
C
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- [47:51]
A
Couldn't agree more. And there's A lot more noise being made for different projects around the space. We talked about Hyper Liquid last week with the stats versus Coinbase. We'll bring those up again to get Brendan's take. But I did catch Hyper Liquid being talked about on national tv. That's a first for me. I don't know if anybody else has ever saw it out there, but I do my best to try to comb through the entire Internet and bring the, the news to you guys and the fun stuff and the bad stuff. But this, this was really, really interesting to see, you know, national tv. Somebody mentioned Hyper Liquid. So let's take a listen, it's a quick clip and then we'll pull up the stats and get a reaction on the other side over time. Three years, four years, everything that's traded will be traded on chain. It's faster, it's 24, 7, it's secure, it's more efficient and the markets. And of course I'm saying this in the, in the grounds of the New York Stock Exchange, but I think all trading will be on chain. And I think Hyper Liquid is a, is probably the leading example out there of trading. And I. So the same talking points that we've heard non stop from everybody from Larry Fink to even Jamie Crypto Diamond, a friend of the show of course saying, hey, everything's coming on chain. Everything's coming on chain. And even though, you know, Jamie Crypto diamond hates Bitcoin, you know, go look at JP Morgan's balance sheet where that was the stat that our friend from Franklin Templeton told us yesterday. It's like, yeah, he can't, he can't really talk out of that side of his mouth anymore because just go look at his balance sheet. So things are coming on chain and a shout out to, directly to Hyper Liquid kind of going. I said this again before I hand it off to you for your take, Bren, I said this, it was credit to, to the nation and inside the community. We do a lot of awesome stuff here and obviously we've talked a lot about Hyper Liquid the last couple weeks. But if you were inside the community, you know it. This is, this is stuff that came out in newsletters months ago reports with Bryce and Rohit and you guys talking about it. I know Brian and Joe were talking about it in their community and their newsletters and videos. So again, as much as we, we try to bring, you know, as much good information as we can to the pod, there is a lot of alpha inside the community. And this was something that I remember reading through the newsletters months ago of you guys really like diving into hyper liquid and there was some, some good information on it. So if anybody's interested in getting in more involved with Crypt Nation and Rohit's newsletter and Bryce and, you know, you, Brendan and Brian and Joe, I think, you know, we always have a $1 trial in the description down there as well for Crypt Nation, so check it out. But these stats were wild. You know, any. Any take on just hyper liquid. We kind of broke down these numbers with, with Brian the other day, but just wanted to get your take as well.
- [50:34]
B
Yeah. You know, my thoughts here are they've grown at an exceptional rate and they continue to grow. And the craziest thing about this is that they aren't even allowed to be used inside the US yet. Right. That's the crazy thing is like the only people in the US who use them, they are the people who VPN in which we do not condone because, you know, it's illegal, but that's the only way people in the US get access to them. So you're looking at them saying, guys, I mean, they're competing in Tiva. I think if you scroll or you showed the picture scroll, actually it looks like it's already on the screen. Yeah. You look at how they're doing and they're doing more volume than. Than a lot of these other different places on here. I mean, you have Coinbase, you have Uni Swap, you have Robin Hood Radium. They have taken off. And the craziest thing is they're not even that compatible with most other ecosystems. They're not super compatible with Ethereum or Solana. They're kind of out there in their own thing, and yet they are becoming so wildly dominant and they've held up their price. Performance has been drastically better. They're up 30%. What is that year? To date, they're up 30%, whereas I think that's what that is. And then meanwhile, Coinbase is down almost 30% and they're performing. They're performing on metrics like trading volume, they're performing on. Performing on activity, and they're also performing in terms of price action, which is what you want to see. So I don't know, man. I mean, it's turning heads. They. They kind of are capitalizing everywhere that they can. I'm interested to see where this goes moving forward, because it feels like they are. I was going to say the next big thing, but they're not even like the next big thing. They are now the big thing. Like, you Know, like being bigger than Coinbase, who I think has a hundred million users. Let me fact check myself on that. I think it's around 100 million, 110 million or something. That is, that's what Google's telling me. That's crazy. And Hyper Liquid here, in what, like a year's time, roughly speaking, they've been able to, to compete. So, yeah, crazy.
- [52:52]
A
I think we'll, we'll jump around on the sheet here. Let's jump around. Let's jump to seven. Brendan, what was your take on the Coinbase ad? So Brian and I did a deep dive on this, but basically I want to jump around because this is, we're directly comparing Hyper Liquid to, you know, the Robin Hood's of the world. The Coinbase is the world. The Dex is all that stuff. So what was your take on the Coinbase ad? It was the big super bowl ad, the karaoke ad. Did you, did you like it? Did you not like it? Did you understand it? Do you think it worked? It didn't work. What's your take on.
- [53:23]
B
Mid?
- [53:25]
A
Mid, Mid.
- [53:26]
B
I did not. It's funny, we texted each other the moment it happened or maybe the day after it happened. I, I didn't like it. And this is, it's so brutal because they have some of the best ads out there.
- [53:41]
A
Pause your thought. I want you to, I want you to continue. Everybody in the chat right now. I see some people chiming in. Did you like or dislike the Coinbase ad? Throw it in the chat, let me know. And then Brendan's gonna finish and then I'm gonna get to the chat and see what people said because I'm really fascinated on the cryptos people take on this. So continue on Brendan.
- [54:00]
B
I, apparently I talked to my friends about this. Apparently I had lots of hot takes about the, everything in the super bowl this year. But the, the Coinbase ad I thought was like one of the worst ads they've ever done. Was it? I know, actually, I'm going to stand by that. I think it's one of the worst ads that they've ever done. They usually do some of the best ads in all of crypto. Some of the best. They are awesome at their ads. I love the, the shipping container ones and all these other ones that they've done. They have been brilliant with their marketing. This one, it felt like an excuse for Brian Armstrong and some of the team to go to the super bowl. And then they were posing in their like Backstreet Boys style jackets. They like posted a quick picture of them. At the super bowl in it, they ran the ad and like that was it. And at a time like this in the market, I just don't think the ad was fitting. I think that people are trying to find value and for you to play the most the world's most expensive game of karaoke and then act like hunky dory at the time where the fear and greed index is the worst it's ever been, it just does not feel like it was appropriate or maybe not appropriate. Like sure, it was fun and everything. It just doesn't feel like it was a useful or an effective ad at a time like this. And then to have them like posting about being at the super bowl and stuff, I don't know, it just didn't feel like it was their best option and it felt cheap, I think.
- [55:38]
A
And part of that is it's, it was, it's bear market fear and greed index on an all time low over the weekend. It's like if that, if it was a bull market and Bitcoin was 500k and everybody was in like I think that it definitely hits different. So I, I totally agree with that. And I get the people wanting to sing. I just, yeah, it felt, and it felt a little tone deaf and, and we love coin. Like we always appreciate the coinbase people coming on from all different parts of such a big business. But I just thought, and I'm, I, I just like being honest and giving a contrarian take because we were talking about how all the big time KOLs just were talking about like we love it, it's awesome, it's amazing. It's like, you know, you always say everything's amazing like let's have some honesty for once of like, hey, maybe that wasn't the best ad because you have had the most amazing ad department probably in all of crypto and have had like I always go back to the house one, right. The bitcoin value versus the house. It's like it just sparks so many conversations inside and outside of crypto Twitter that it's like, hey, put that on the tv. Have people talk about that. But even I guess at the end of the day like that people don't like crypto will probably hate it anyway. But they keep, the other thing is they keep bringing it up like they just tweeted about it this morning or last night again, they're like, oh, you know, hate it or love it. You talked about it like our ad was great and it's like you keep explaining it. It's like a joke it's like, you know, a good joke doesn't. Yeah, well, a good joke doesn't need to be explained. Like, when you tell a joke and people don't laugh, you're like, oh, you didn't laugh because you don't get it. It's like, no, we get it. Like, everybody. You got everybody engaged. And then the true results felt. You know, the true results for me are what went viral. Like, everybody posted about it and then booed or flipped off the tv. And then Coinbase makes a video of everybody singing, dancing, and having fun. And then the Coinbase ad, and they start clapping, and I'm kind of like. I'm like, where did you get those videos? You know, like, there's. There's, you know, where'd you get those videos of people having a good time singing? It feels like maybe, you know, you're farming for it a little bit. But those are all the people who are short. Yeah, there you go. I love that. That's. All the people are short. Let's hit the chat. Matt, let's. Oh, Matt says, hey, let's all hit the, like button and help these guys out. Matt, we really appreciate that, man. Really. Really. Thank you. Tyler Fitz is in the chat. Good to see him. He disliked it. Coinbase. Super bowl ads sucked. That's. That's aggressive. Let's see. Thesis didn't like it either, so. Yeah. And from. From the crypto101 channel, it's like, you know, know, we love Coinbase. I. I don't. I also don't want to get caught up in, you know, I come from the background of, like, the barstool media where, like, hey, you say what you want and some opinions people don't like. It has nothing to do with, like, being anti Coinbase. I don't think that at all. We love Coinbase and always having their people on and they're always doing great stuff for the industry. It's just, you know, hey, it's okay. It's okay to maybe miss on a creative ad and. And have a healthy debate. I think that's the. The fun part is, like, healthy debate instead of just saying everything's great. But, you know, Brian Armstrong looked like he maybe have sold some shares this week as well. So maybe he didn't like the ad as much. Or maybe those. Maybe those Backstreet Boy jackets are a little too expensive.
- [58:54]
B
It's not a good look. Again, markets down. All of this, like, markets down so much. The super bowl ad was a large flop, and then they have earnings this Week. And it's like all of these things happening and he's selling $500 million worth.
- [59:14]
A
It's everybody. Yeah. Sell your shares.
- [59:22]
B
Yeah. How has someone not made a parody of that yet again? All the three most important factors. Earnings week for Coinbase. Bear mark, brutal bear market. Like arguably, you know, on the Fear and Green index, the worst that we've ever seen. And then super bowl ad, and he's like, you know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna sell a half a billion dollars worth of shares and then flex about it at the Super Bowl. I don't know. Again, just. It didn't feel thought through. And I like Coinbase. We like Coinbase over here. We make tons of videos. I like Coinbase, I own their stock. So I'm saying this as someone who has money in the skin, in the game here, I wish it would have been a little bit more thought through.
- [60:04]
A
Yeah, well, they're. They're going after the Everything app, right? They're doing prediction markets. They're doing. They're trying to get stocks and tokenize equities and they're obviously the, you know, custody for these big, you know, IBIT and all these big firms. So they're doing their thing. They're going to be here. They're not going anywhere. I don't think you could say the same for the gambling stocks, man, I've been watching these gambling stocks fall off a freaking cliff. I think that was a big miss when, when our, our leader of prediction markets, Brian, said it was a super cycle. I did, I. You knew it would affect the gambling stocks. Not shorting them might have been a huge miss Missed trade of the year for me personally, but Coinbase is going to be fine. I'm sure. Brian Armstrong has a plethora of other shares that he's holding on with tight hands. And friend of the show, Brian Armstrong, we haven't had him on, but we would love to because he's doing a lot of, a lot of work down in Washington. He's always down there. But they're not the only, you know, partnerships going on and people building on. Sorry, excuse me there. People building on the blockchain kind of circling back to where I. Before I jumped, we were talking about, hey, everything's coming on. Chain trading on chain hyper liquid. And we've talked a lot about Ethereum recently. One more reference to that Franklin Templeton interview that we'll be releasing in a couple weeks. It was a big Solana. It was a big Solana episode. And then I Saw this news that 2.6 trillion dollar AUM manager city just built on Solana. So Citigroup working on Solana again, doing the tokenized efforts, moving stuff on chain. Super, super exciting for Solana. We have a great salon episode. Not, I wouldn't say it's a salon episode, just with Franklin Templeton, but what I do want to do is I want to go try and get Soul Strategies back on. We haven't had them on since they've went public. Max Kaplan, friend of the show, also a Tampa area resident like myself, we'll. I'm gonna reach out to him to try to get him on because I think Solana has been. Been really quiet and we've nailed this on this show where Solana was the bell of the ball. The 25 Jan. 25 with the meme coins and all that. And then Ethereum fell out and then it kind of transitioned where Ethereum took the the baton with the, you know, Tom Lee announcement and Solana fell off and now theory, and now they all fell off. So I think it's a good time to really start diving into our blue chips again and see what people are working on and where the belief is.
- [62:30]
B
Yeah, I think that'd be great, man. I mean, Solana is. Solana's doing a lot. They're on the up and up. It's interesting. We've had a lot of people on the pods in different places. Everyone's talking about Solana. They think that it's probably underlooked at probably under. What's the word I'm trying to look for? I was gonna say under deserved, but like, they're probably underrated. That's the word they're underrated with where they're at. And they have a lot going on. You know, spoiler alert. In the podcast that we just had with Franklin Templeton, he's like, Solana's his top choice and they seem to want to use it. And even though the most of the building has been done on Ethereum, from an institutional standpoint, Solana tends to be the next big one that people are looking at because of its scalability. So, yep, I'm a fan of this 2.6 trillion dollar city building on Solana. That's a big step in the right direction, man.
- [63:28]
A
Yeah, we had, we had one more topic, but I'm just gonna bump that because we did talk about it the other day. I'm gonna bump that to next week. It's an update on. On a topic we talked about. I. I opened it up for Questions. We had a really active chat today. Thanks to everybody for joining and any questions, throw them in there. If there are any, we'll get to them. Thoughts on the on real estate Proppy. What's. You know what that is? Real estate proppy?
- [63:53]
B
I do, yeah. They are a, they're an altcoin project. They've been around for a long time. They try to do like tokenization for the real estate markets and they never really caught on too much. They never really went anywhere and it was hard because they had these big regulatory hurdles.
- [64:15]
A
I. That's a pause right there because I think real estate is real estate and like car titles seem to be like the no brainer to put those on chain for me. But you're not gonna. I don't. And I, I wish this was different but like I don't know if you're gonna find some random like out of left field at a left field startup that's gonna come gobble that up real quick like that, that's something that the big have a huge hold on. And even if, even if it's to the point of like, hey, we're going to buy you up and swallow you real quick, like it just feels like especially for real estate, it's like you're not going to let that, you know, billion, trillion dollar business just disappear to some crypto startup. So the regulation on that is going to be a huge hurdle for sure.
- [65:00]
B
Yeah, spot on. So that one's been a hard one to get into. What was Proppy in the news for again?
- [65:06]
A
No, it's just Tyler Fitz, friend of the show, asking about it. He said they made, they made a partner with Miami like the city of Miami you're talking about. This is to. To Fitz. They let me, let me. I'm trying to search on Twitter, Proppy.
- [65:26]
B
Miami, looking them up to see what the price action's been doing.
- [65:34]
A
Coinbase City of Miami continues. Yeah, I don't see anything specifically but this is bad. Bad radio. Too quiet researching there. Google AI'd them. Okay, so let's, we'll move on. We can do some research on that for next time Fits but I don't, I don't know Google anything on propy. You're seeing nothing too crazy.
- [66:00]
B
They've had a really hard time since like 2024. They've lost most of their value and they're kind of down in the dumps. You know, occasionally they'll have these short squeezes where they see like a sharp move to the upside, but it's almost always been followed off by more selling pressure.
- [66:15]
A
Yeah, I guess this is what he's referring to from Refresh Miami. No thanks. I don't want to stay up to date. Secures a hundred million dollar credit facility. Maybe that's what he's talking about, but not something that's on our radar. But we'll, you know, we'll keep tabs on it. If you have any more updates fits let us know. Let's wrap it up. We're at the top of the hour. We really really appreciate everybody coming. Thank you guys so much. I have a lot of fun doing these. I mean again in a bare market. Doing an hour episode is is is fun and I really love the community. So last last call. Give it a like bottom right subscribe. We'll be back back next week with a couple episodes early in the week because we have some things to take care of later in the week. But we appreciate and love you all and we'll talk to you next time. Have a great weekend everybody. Bye. I've tried all sorts of ways to make a website with AI and honestly, it's not as easy as it looks. The results can be unpredictable and the moment I try to tweak something, everything breaks. Then I found WIX Harmony. It blends vibe coding with classic drag and drop so you can generate pages, sections or even complex components in seconds. Then fine tune every pixel without breaking your site. The best part? Everything runs on enterprise grade infrastructure. Try it for free@wix.com harmony working across teams is tough, but Asana helps you handle it. That's because Asana is worth humans and.
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