← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: FOMC Week & Institutional Price Prediction Revealed (Bitcoin $700,000?!)
00:46:15
Loading summary
Transcript38 lines
- [00:00]
Alex
Foreign welcome back to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And we have another big week in store. Not only is bitcoin breaking out to a new high of $98,000, it started to see a little bit of a retracement as bitcoin dominance is soaring. Of course, we got to talk about the altcoin market as well. There is a lot going on over there. It's also FOMC week where we're going to have the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, coming out and talking about the markets, whether he wants to cut rates, whether he wants, whether he doesn't want to cut rates, whether this could even happen at a later point in time. You better believe that that is going to be something that impacts all of the markets. And yes, that could even have an effect on bitcoin. We're going to talk about that in today's episode. Coinbase is also out there with a brand new commercial. New Hampshire has become the first state to sign a bitcoin reserve bill into law. Trump announced that he is going to be having his crypto dinner for the holders of the Trump coin, which we talked about a little bit last week. And we want to take a look at the Fear and Greed index as well, because that was something that we talked about just a few weeks ago, around a month ago. And we're going to check back in to see where that's at and what that means for the market. So welcome everyone. We hope all of you are having a fantastic start to your day. No matter where you're from, you're certainly in the right place. And of course, I couldn't do this without my trusty companion, Mr. TiVo. How are you doing over there?
- [01:44]
TiVo
Hey, doing good, man. Exciting, exciting times as always in the crypto markets. I feel like, yeah, we were in some rocky seas there again a couple weeks ago. But for those of you who have been with us week in, week out, yeah, we've had a lot of awesome stuff to talk about, really, in the crypto markets and specifically bitcoins really led, led the momentum out of that liberation day bottom, at least near term bottom, what we're calling. So again, there's a lot of stuff going on underneath the hood of the crypto markets and the crypto News cycle. So that's what we're here to do every week.
- [02:19]
Alex
Yeah, I mean, we're seeing a really strong start to this week. I saw yesterday most of the, the tradfi side of things was red. So large equity, small equities, you know, NASDAQ, S P, Dow Jones were all read about 1%. Small equities were read about 1.2%. And what do you know, bitcoin yesterday, having a pretty solid day just looking at what it did. It ended up, and I'm checking over here on the side, but it ended up plus 2%. Well, everything else was red 1%. And Tiva. This has been a reoccurring theme. We've talked about this time and time again. Just saying bitcoin's outperforming the market, right? Bitcoin is continuing to do really, really well even while they fall. So you look at Monday's performance, like we said, a little bit red Tuesday, bitcoin was, you know, very well in the green even while the tradfi side was kind of just, I don't know, do not doing a whole lot. And bitcoin continues to outperform just about everything. And it's been something that we've been talking about here on the rundown for a while is just looking at the strength of bitcoin on the green days. On the up days it is outperforming. On the red days, it is preserving and holding value, sometimes even outperforming and going green while everything else is going red. So it's a really big deal for bitcoin over here as it's pushing up. We have a whole lot of people that are talking about what the future price of bitcoin could be this year. So at the start of this week, I went ahead and I did a little bit of a study. I said, what are all of these major financial players talking about? What do they think bitcoin is going to get by the end of this year?
- [03:54]
TiVo
Have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't Dared tried? With Plus500 futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity. You'll be able to trade in just two clicks. Feel ready. You can move to real money with as little as $100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gas and much more. Explore equity indices like energy, metals, Forex and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with +500. With over 20 years of experience, +500 is your gateway to the markets with. Visit us. +500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. And this is not personal financial advice. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.
- [04:49]
Alex
And I can't remember if we talked about this last week, TiVo, but you know, when we look at that, we can look at Tom Lee from Fund Strat, we can look at blackrock, Vanek, Charles Schwab, Pantera. We're talking giants, companies that have billions if not trillions of dollars. And a little bit of a spoiler alert. If you have billions and trillions of dollars in assets under management, you can afford to hire the most intelligent financial minds on the planet. So don't take my word for it. You know, obviously I'm biased, right? This whole segment is called the crypto rundown. I'm biased towards crypto. That should be a given. But let's look at what these, these billion and trillion dollar players are talking about here. Well, Tom Lee from Fun Strat says his 2025 Bitcoin prediction, and these are all fairly recent, is $250,000. And the cool part is that on the screen here you can see the rationale, you can see the catalyst and the reasons as to how they think bitcoin can get to this price prediction that they're talking about. Now, if you're joining in from Spotify or Apple podcasts or Audible or anywhere else, you need to go over to our YouTube channel to see the visuals that we're going to be putting on the screen right now. But let's move on. We have Standard Chartered, they said bitcoin can hit $200,000 this year. Bernstein said that it can hit $200,000 this Year. Wainwright said it can hit $225,000 this year. VanEck, big Name, they think that it can hit $180,000 this year. Bitwise a group that we've had here on the channel, we've talked to Matt Hogan from over there and some of the other members. They think it can hit $200,000 this year. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, thinks that it can hit $700,000 this year. If we see 2 to 5% of institutional portfolio allocation. And this could drive mass capital inflows. Charles Schwab said they think it could hit $1 million this year. Now this is speculative and is conditional upon what happens with the US Strategic bitcoin reserve and how this affects supply and demand. Pantera Capital said $148,000 this year. Galaxy said that it can do $185,000 and Deep Water thinks that it can do $150,000 in 2025. And you'll notice that, you know, these all have different catalysts. And this is what I like about this chart that, that we've created is that there's not just one path to success here, TiVo, it's saying look at all of the different catalysts. Look at the rationale behind all of these different predictions. And some of them share ideas, right? You know, institutional portfolio allocation, ETF inflows, bitcoin, strategic reserves, like, but there are several different ideas of like, hey, there's all these different paths to success. There's all these good things working here for bitcoin and all these big mega tradfi players, you know, for the most part they're all thinking that this is going to go higher. And that's my final point is that the predictions here, they vary, right? They're not all the same. But the one thing that they all have in common is they're saying, hey, in 2025 we believe that that bitcoin can go to new all time highs now, some much further than all time highs, some a little bit closer, right? You know, 150k, some are saying 200k. But even from where we're at right now, you know, that's saying that this near $2 trillion asset can double in value. And that's a big deal for an asset class of that size. Going from almost 2 billion to 4 bill, or from almost 2 trillion to 4 trillion. It's a huge, huge increase. So, you know, I like this. You know, we see what all the big names are talking about. We've been talking about, has bitcoin put in a reversal? You know, has bitcoin bottomed? Are new all time highs possible? And I think that the answer here is yes, right? You know, the trend is our friend, the trend is currently up right now and it has been for bitcoin for a while. Yes, we see pullbacks here and there and there's uncertain times, but the trend is your friend. And also all these, these big, like I've said a million times, these billion and trillion dollar tradify Players, well, they seem to believe it too. So I like to put my money side with the trend. I'm not going to fight it. And I do think that these new all time highs are possible before the end of this year. Yeah.
- [09:14]
TiVo
And I think those price targets, you could be fair to say that everybody kind of on that list is talking their book a little bit. But I think what encapsulates with the high price targets is kind of the tradition of bitcoin of, you know, when it, when it starts to move, it moves fast. And that can be in both directions. But, you know, especially the upside and the hype and, and we saw it, you know, from the, you know, kind of that September low or the August, the nakai trade, when everything crashed down and then the rip up to 100, you know, we saw it move from what, 60s to 80s to 90s. And then once it hits 90s, everybody gets excited like, oh my God, is it going to hit 100? And then it kind of blows past 100 to 107 and kind of onboarded all the, maybe some new investors or the people that haven't touched it since the FTX low, which is obviously, as everybody knows the term, the FOMO starts to kick in. And so again, this is, this is kind of my opinion on the psychology around it. But because you broke that 100k level, the new FOMO level is when it starts to head to that, you know, the 120s, the 130s, the 140s, because people saw 100 and maybe a bunch of people kind of bought in there. And as we said before, if it's your, if you're buying in at 100, you don't get to take the elevator to 150. You're going to be tested. So the people that got burned, you know, buying at 100 to 107 and watched, you know, Liberation Day and bitcoin kind of led the way down before that, obviously. But, you know, the trip back down to the 70s, you know, probably scared a lot of people out. So when you hit 100 again, everybody's going to be like, well, we've seen this before, I'm not doing this again. And then they're going to blink their eye and it's going to be 120. And they're like, this is it.
- [10:57]
Alex
Bye, bye, bye, bye, bye.
- [10:58]
TiVo
And then that FOMO starts to kick out. So I think a lot of those price targets are definitely encapsulating how everybody knows what bitcoin is or has heard of it at this point. So it's not, it's not the understanding of what or the word of it, but I think it still has that adoption FOMO rate that can still kick in, especially from all these traditional asset managers. Like Larry Fink's comment of, Hey, 2 to 5% allocation, he raised that from 1% when he was doing the media rounds a year or so ago, introducing the product now, now he's up to 2 to 5%. So I think, yeah, it's all, it's all, it's all fair game and it's, it's exciting to have these people on the bitcoin team now. Whereas, you know, five years, Larry Fink's the perfect example, you know, that he certainly was not.
- [11:49]
Bryce
Yeah.
- [11:49]
Alex
And that's not asking for a ton. Right. You know, 2 to 5% means that Bitcoin could go to $700,000. You know, that's pretty, pretty achievable, Pretty, pretty possible. So it's not like he's throwing out some crazy number there. He's not giving us some out of reality price prediction or anything like that. It's a pretty reasonable thing. We've seen other groups, I think fidelity, I could be wrong there, but I believe that they've even thrown out similar numbers saying, hey, maybe 2, 3, 5% is possible. And we're starting to see a lot more of these asset managers come on board and say, hey, you know, we do see this, you know, somewhere from, you know, maybe 2 to 5% is a realistic possibility in terms of, of institutional adoption inside of someone's portfolio, which is a fair bet, right? I mean, you look at how it's performed, you look at how it's become kind of uncorrelated to a lot of the tradfi assets, it means it's a fairly good asset to have on your books. And I think that institutions are starting to realize that as well. And with this rise, we've already started to see the, the climb in bitcoin dominance. Right. You know, I mean, look at this bitcoin dominance chart. But we've talked about this a lot. I mean, it's just up and up and up and this thing's climbing. And as this climbs, everyone's asking themselves like, well, when is altcoin season going to happen? Right? Everyone wants altcoin season. And so long as bitcoin dominance is climbing like this, it doesn't look like altcoin season will happen until this reverses. And where is that most likely to do it at? Well, fitting in theme with the having we see Bitcoin dominance top out at around 70% every four years. We saw it happen in 2017. We saw it fall. We saw it happen in 2021. We saw it fall. Now we could see it happen in 2025 potentially as we are really climbing up towards this area and if we see a rejection like we have in the past, well, that would be the catalyst for altcoin season to go into full effect. We see these coins climb 2, 3, 500%. Some could do a thousand percent plus. And that's really when altcoins heat up, is when we see that that tipping point in terms of bitcoin dominance for the moment, Bitcoin's crushing it. Bitcoin is pushing up here. It sold off a little bit, was immediately bought back up off this area of support which we've already established off this 20 day moving average. The dips are being bought up and this is pushing right back into the highs of 98k and trying to break out here now. I think that this is a big deal, right? For anyone who cares about price action, 100k is a big deal. I see this as like the last final line of resistance before new all time highs because what do we have in between 100k in the all time highs? Not a lot. Not a lot. We have the all time highs kicking in resistance around 106, 107, 108K, you know, right around the very tippy top. But I think that that that is something that is extremely breakable and I really do view this as like the last major line of resistance and I think that we can break out up here fairly easily. So we'll see what happens with FOMC today. Obviously that's going to be a big catalyst. But altcoins, you know, I don't think they're far behind. We've already started to see a lot of altcoins bottom out last month at the start of April. Solana is a great example of this. It bottomed out over here, you know. What did it do? It ran like 66, 67%. Even on these pullbacks, it's putting in higher lows.
- [15:20]
TiVo
The Solana ad bottom, I can't. I'm so glad we put that there.
- [15:25]
Alex
That was your idea. It was your idea. You're like, this could act as the catalyst. We should have gotten the clip for it. I know, but shout out to TiVo for that one.
- [15:34]
TiVo
Sorry, sorry. Continue. Just made me laugh.
- [15:37]
Alex
No, you're right. I was about to bring it up if you didn't. So I Mean, it makes a good point though. Like, you know, that is just one of those events where it's like, all right, this is either the bottom or we're tanking like way, way further. And it acted as the bottom. And we called that several weeks ago and we laughed about it on the, on the rundown. But you know, there's a lot of other altcoins that look like this. We can look at SUI running, bouncing off key levels of support. We've seen this, I think with chain link bottoming out last month, you name it, right? You know, most altcoins are kind of coming down here, they're finding a bottom. I know Pengu has been doing good, Render has been doing good, Syrup's been doing really good, Hype's been doing good. Like a lot of these altcoins look like they've kind of bottomed out and they're starting to heat back up here in the market. And it just really begs the question, like, what are these coins going to do once bitcoin dominance falls? Right? You know, they're already starting to do decent, but the best could be yet to come. So there's a lot of good things happening over here. And I think that's enough of the charts. Again, you know, we're looking at this, we're positive, right? We're going to have our ups and downs, we're going to have pullbacks. But as I've said a million times in the past, I think that the pullbacks that we get are buying opportunities and that's the way that I'm looking at them. So I'm personally buying, I'm getting long, I think new all time highs are possible. If I haven't made that point clear enough so far. But let's talk about fomc. Let's talk about FOMC today. This is where we get good old J. Powell, Jerome Powell, coming out from the Federal Reserve and talking about rate decisions. So what are the odds, what are the odds that we can get a cut? What are the odds that we can get a hike? Well, let's take a look at those because it is, it is quite interesting. And we've seen this number change a little bit in recent weeks. Even over the, I'd say the last like two weeks, we've seen a pretty drastic change in how the rates have, have fluctuated. But people are looking at this, right? You obviously, the average investor, they want cuts, right? Everyone wants more cuts, get the rates lower. That's what gets people happy. It tends to, you know, do good things to the market in response to this. So long as it's not getting. So long as we're not cutting rates for the wrong reasons. Right. There's a horrible economic event happening and we're cutting rates because of that. It can be a bad catalyst, but you get the picture. Well, this chart shows a really good point. Right. We can see how the rates have fluctuated and it's inverse. It's inversely written. So 0% is the top, 100% is the bottom. Don't ask me why that's the case, but I felt like I needed to clarify because it's a little confusing. But you can see that for the FOMC meeting today, right, May 7th, the odds of this happening are around 2%. Very, very low. Right. Almost no chance of rate cuts happening. Well, what about the next meeting, June 18th? Well, this is also looking fairly low as well. And I think that the June 18 and the July 30 meetings are going to be the most interesting because they were at a pretty high chance of getting cut. The June 18th one was sitting around to 70% from the end of April, beginning of May. And then as we've gotten more economic data, we've started to see the chances of these rate cuts go down. So we've gone from around a 70% to almost a 30% for the July one. We've seen this go from an 80, then a 90, then a near 100% chance at the start of May, and now it's sitting at a 68% chance. So why is this the case? Well, Thibaux, I mean, we've talked about it. I know I've talked about it with Bryce and the other analysts. But, you know, I'm a big advocate that the, the economic data that we've seen so far isn't as bad as the media is making it out to be. I mean, I don't know what we can look at. The big thing I think recently was everyone's like, oh, my goodness, gdp, GDP is going negative. This is proof that we're going into a recession. Well, most people fail to understand why that was the case. It was because in expectation of all of the tariffs, that all these, these companies had huge imports. And that's how you measure GDP is imports to exports, you know, plus some other factors. But since we had such a massive spike in imports, it in balance the scales. So was it because the economy was doing so bad? No, I mean, look at all the earnings calls. TiVo, I'm sure that you've watched these the Earnings calls have been fine. You look at a lot of these leading companies, Google crushing it, Meta doing well. You know, all these, these, these big companies just crushing it. And I don't know, you know, again, the economic and job numbers, job numbers also came out. Those were stronger than expected. So we look at this and the economic data hasn't been horrible. And that's why we see these, these, the odds of these rate cuts going down and down and down. It's not necessarily a bad thing. It's saying, hey, everyone has been freaking out. Everyone's been panicking more than they should have. The data doesn't support this kind of panic and that's why the rate cuts are going down. So it's not a bad thing that we're seeing this. I know that bitcoin tends to perform really good in environments when there are rate cuts. But the good news here is that bitcoin is already outperforming everything. We have another chart. I don't know if I can show it, TiVo, but it's on my Twitter. If we can pull it up. I think I posted it right below the other chart. But I redid an original analysis where I said, this is bitcoin compared to all these other major assets. Gold, large equities, small equities, commodities like oil. And I redid this on Monday. And what it shows is that since the election, bitcoin is up almost 4 and now it's more than 40%. Bitcoin's up 40% since the election. Gold's up 23%, Nasdaq's at break even, S and P is red. The, the Russell is read 9%, oil is right, almost 20%. And Bitcoin is outperforming everything. So does bitcoin need these rate cuts to go to new all time highs? Absolutely not. It's already, you know, destroying it. Despite seeing a pullback from its all time high, despite still being down over $10,000 from its all time high, it's still outperforming everything else. So, yeah, I don't know. Again, I'm a little hyped up here. It's ironic because I was just telling TiVo earlier I'm taking a break from coffee and stuff, but this is the kind of thing that caffeinates me more than two shots of espresso would. But yeah, I don't know.
- [22:38]
TiVo
Yeah, that's, that's the thing about the markets, right? Like if you find anybody out there who says they do 100% know, they're lying to you. So that that's kind of the fun and the exploration of the journey that we're in. I just think this is why there's certain times, and we've talked about this over the, the life time of us doing this, which was just like a, you know, a year and a half now doing it consistently every week is you weave in and out of these, these times that like you said, get you caffeinated and get you excited. And there's always, there's always some lulls. There's always those lulls of like last summer where we just kind of chugged along after, you know, all time highs. The back and we chugged along was boring and then there was volatility to the downside, then the election to the upside. And so it's kind of like we had that volatility to the downside before Liberation Day. Then the most interesting thing was how Liberation Day brought so much uncertainty to all markets and bitcoin outperformed. And so you're in this what kind of looks like another transitional phase of adoption. And we've talked about this before when we were looking into the, the, the week of or the week after the Liberation Day, the average person, me included, would have been like, hey, like this type of news, bitcoin should tank because there's all these people that panic sell and they just need their money and they need to be out of the markets in general. And that didn't happen. And so you have to wonder if there's some type of adoption shift to now especially with the tradfi investment of you know, some people are starting to allocate and like BlackRock is suggesting you put again 2 to 5%. Is there, is there a new wave of hodlers? And I think you can make the case for that. And that's what's so exciting about this time is like it's supposed, it is volatile and you're still getting those moves. But like this chart just shows you like man, this is an interesting time for the markets. And again it's, it's not boring. It's volatility to the downside for the most part. But, but you're learning new things. And that's, that's what I think the benefit is. Again, I'm always pitching the listeners and we have a ton of them that come every week. But like, like we've, we've said on the show before, when the number goes up, the views go up because people want to know what's going on. But there's, there's a lot of benefits to sticking around with us week in and week out as we kind of break down what's going on in all markets and specifically deep dive into the crypto market. 1, 1 Note to Build off of kind of what you were talking about before of the health of the economy, the health of these companies. And I think this was the biggest thing that took people, not for a loop, but maybe took people by surprise because everything was so negative. And there was a couple companies, Meta being the largest, that raised their capex. And so capex is investment, investment money. And then I'll bring this up here. So, so during their earnings last week, Meta raised, raised their capex guide a total of $8 billion. And that's basically showing confidence in the business because if all these, if all these things are true with the economy and we're going into the Great Depression and all these surveys are saying that there's no confidence and the businesses aren't confident and the consumers aren't confident, then these bigger companies wouldn't be raising their capex, they would be cutting it back. They would be probably looking to cut workforce. And so this, this is basically doubling down on a healthy company and tripling down probably on the AI trade, which again, there's always a good debate of is this a bubble, is this not? And obviously there's been a correction because I think Nvidia is like a good example. It's basically been flat if you do it a year to date, but these companies aren't giving up on it and that. And I think Capex is going to be the first number that you'll see that would drop if there's not as much benefit to investing this type of money. And so I think that's just a positive sign for momentum in markets. And I understand that the Fed, it makes sense because it's more about the clarity around tariffs. Right. Like markets like to know and they just don't know because the administration's not giving them enough clarity right now. But if, but again, that's a short term, it's a zoom out, which we love to say. It's a short term, you know, two, three, I guess it was April like maximum six month unknown, which again, markets definitely don't like. But I think we're starting to see some clarity and you can kind of feel that Trump and his team want to get some, some at least you know, words on paper that deals are done, even if there's maybe some more stuff to really hammer home with an official deal. I'm getting the vibe that they want to put some stuff out in the next couple weeks. And specifically it was came out that Scott Besant was going to fly to Switzerland to start talks with China. So yeah, just, I think again, you got to parse through the noise. The media definitely skews negative because that, that gets clicks and they want to scare you at 7pm every night that the economy is going into depression. So you turn on the news, you know, we're going to try and parse through the noise and give, give you all angles. So I think that's kind of of a good summary of where we are with kind of the businesses and rate hikes as a whole.
- [27:56]
Dylan
Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24,7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.
- [28:27]
Alex
Yeah, no, I think it makes a good point. And you know what shouldn't scare you? TiVo. It's new Coinbase commercials. Maybe it should scare you. We've seen some crypto commercials go the wrong way in the past. What was that big one? It was, it was, I think it was Larry someone and he had the crypto.com commercial being like, ah, I don't touch that stuff. And it was right before the ftx.
- [28:50]
TiVo
No, that was ftx.
- [28:51]
Alex
That was, that was Larry David FTX commercial.
- [28:55]
TiVo
Yeah, yeah. And it was like Larry, Larry was right. Yeah, New Coinbase commercial. We're going to play it and then we can kind of break it down. It's only 30 seconds, so let's give it a watch.
- [29:08]
Bryce
Coin was the size of a quarter. All 21 million of them would fit inside a single shipping container. But to fit the dollars the Fed prints on average every day, you'd need 72 shipping containers. Each year, you'd need 26,280 containers. And to fit what they've printed in the last decade, well, you'd need a lot more than that.
- [29:38]
TiVo
That's fire.
- [29:40]
Alex
I like it. It's a good analogy. I mean, it gets your brain thinking. People always underestimate inflation and then they always, you know, there's always this disconnect between what's happening with the inflation of the dollar and bitcoin's maximum supply. Right. People think about it and they say how much will that really affect price? Right. Having a, a cap supply of 21 million, they underestimate how much that's going to impact it. And then they also kind of inversely underestimate how much inflation actually affects the average person. And then you look at it over the last decade, like the commercial says, and it's a lot higher than you might think. And I think that's why bitcoin's really starting to take, take off so much to the upside is because we are feeling the effects of that.
- [30:26]
TiVo
So yeah, I think it was a great representation. It makes you think and yeah, really kind of attacking the there and, and you know, Warren Buffett, which again, not. We're not going to deep dive on Warren Buffett, but the Oracle of Omaha announced his retirement at their, I don't know what you call it, it's like an earnings convention. And he said, he gives, you know, long speeches and people always love to hear what he has to say as, as one of the greatest investors of all time. But he, he did make a statement and obviously he's not into bitcoin, would never suggest to buy bitcoin as he said before. But he did say like it's not exact quote here, but it was something along the lines of, you know, into the future, you know, finding other currencies to invest in other than the dollar is probably a good move, which is basically a case for bitcoin. Yeah, Just again, I think is the inflation thing is fascinating. I had this not argument we're just discussing over the weekend. Like we go to school and you know, we do our eighth grade and go to high school and then in college you do get to kind of choose what you study a little bit. But it's just fascinating through high school, like they don't teach you anything about money. They don't teach you anything about finances. They don't teach you how to do your taxes. They don't teach you how to invest. They don't teach you how to, you know, basically be an adult. They just give you these math Problems and Science 101 and you know, give you grades. As you can tell, I was not a great student, didn't get good marks because I have a bad, bad view on my time in school. But just you didn't, you didn't get taught things that you're going to use in the real world. And inflation was one of the most interesting things over the last, you know, 10 years of my Adult life, as you learn it and understand it, it's. It's really a fascinating. I don't know if it's a phenomenon, but it's just, it's just a reality of life that you really got to learn and digest and, and learn how to navigate. And that's why I think bitcoin adoption is, is soaring because it's kind of just a check into the reality that is inflation.
- [32:27]
Alex
It is, man, people are waking up. And, you know, recently we've had a lot of states start to look at bitcoin as well. We've talked about Arizona and North Carolina and I think Florida and Texas and a lot of other places. But New Hampshire has now become the first state to sign a bitcoin reserve bill into law. And it looked like Arizona was going to be the first one, but it got shot down less than a week ago. It passed its house, it's passed its Senate, but then the governor was like, gave it the ax. So New Hampshire jumped at the opportunity and they are now the first one to do this. And again, it even says here in the article, similar efforts have tried to be made in Arizona and Florida, but they've seen some setbacks. And I do think that they're minor setbacks. Once the first one happens, it opens up the door. Right. The floodgates have been opened. I think more states are going to be able to do this with a lot less stress and pressure now that New Hampshire has already gone ahead and done this. And so what this means is that we're seeing bitcoin adoption from governments on a federal level, on a state level, and also on an international level. So everyone wants to kind of get their hands on this stuff. And again, this just fuels this argument of there is an increased amount of supply. We didn't even talk about the bitcoin ETF inflows this week, but the bitcoin ETF inflows for the past two weeks have been nuts to the upside. I mean, just billions and billions of dollars flowing into them. BlackRock being the majority contributor there. But there's a lot of attention coming towards these things. There's a limited supply and again, that really does just push prices further to the upside.
- [34:14]
TiVo
Yeah, couldn't agree more. And just exciting stuff. You know, there's stuff happening at all levels of government from the White House to the Senate to states now, which is, you know, it's just exciting to keep seeing the momentum from whether it's, you know, blackrock and, you know, trillion dollar asset managers down to New Hampshire whose state slogan on their license plate is Live free or die. So live free or die. And let's, let's buy some Bitcoin.
- [34:41]
Alex
100%. Well, let's talk about this Trump dinner. Let's talk about this. We talked about it a little bit last week, right? We were like, is this real? Is this not real? Well, it looks real and. Well, it is real. Let me clarify. It is real and we now have a date for when it's going to be happening. Sativo. What do we see here? What do we got? Are we going?
- [35:01]
TiVo
Yeah, we didn't make the cut. We didn't make the cut. You had to be in the top, you know, holders of the Trump token. And wasn't it like, yeah, that was aliens. Yeah, yeah, it was, it was millions, tens of millions of dollars. I believe in Trump tokens. So, yeah, not, not in the budget for us or the risk curve as well, but yeah, it looks like May 22nd there's gonna be a Trump gala dinner and just something fun to watch. I think it kind of goes back to that inauguration weekend. There was the crypto ball and obviously inauguration weekend for the pageantry of the presidency. There's tons of different balls. There's the military ball, the armed, you know, all these different balls. But there was a first ever crypto crypto ball. And everybody, you didn't hear much about it leading up to it that maybe like a week out, you heard the rumblings, oh, wow, crypto ball. Wonder who's going to be there. And then snap of the finger, everybody was there. You know, everybody, you know, high, high level crypto influencer, slash, you know, business person like Michael Saylor, Winklevoss twins, all that were there. And that was where the Trump mean coin was announced. And it kind of broke, you know, people talking about it and then we saw it online and then it was like, is this real? This, there's no way this is real. And then obviously it turns out to be real and rockets over the weekend leading into kind of the Trump meme coin frenzy, into the Melania launch, and then the downtrend of it and just the whole nine yards. It was a fascinating weekend in crypto history. So again, I, I, I'm not personally, it's never financial advice on the show, but I, I'm not aping into any Trump coins right now, but it's something to, something to follow just because you never know. You know, Trump is a showman, right? He, he literally is a, a showman. So if, as much as, you know, this is an Interesting way to throw a dinner by having people buy your meme coin. At least he's giving people some utility. You could make that argument. And, and I don't think he's going to have a dinner without trying to make some news. Right. He likes, he likes to be in the news cycle. So we'll be watching it for you. And if any other updates or any breaking news come out of the, the Trump Gala dinner, we'll be the first ones to bring it to you.
- [37:16]
Alex
Absolutely. I, I'm so curious what that's going to look like. I do wish I could like watch a live stream from the inside or. Yeah, something, something. I think it is going to be interesting. And who knows, maybe there's more to come. Maybe there's a big announcement that comes out of that. We'll have to wait and see. Well, the last thing that we want to take a look at here is the Fear and Greed Index. This is something that we checked out a few weeks ago, probably about a month or so ago. And this is when it was at the absolute bottom. And we always like to say, hey, we do these for free. All you got to do is come in here, take a look at them. And we, we do give like a lot of good information. And it was at absolute bottom. We said, hey, historically, when it's down here, it always bottoms out. In fact, we pulled the clip for it. So we're going to go ahead and run that right now. You know, again, historically speaking, when we get back to some of these times, this is marked some of the lowest points and some of the bottom points for bitcoin in its history. And when we see the Fear and Greed Index, this oversold, this mode of extreme fear around the 10. Again, I'm not saying that that marks the exact bottom price or the exact bottom at that point in time, but it does tend to signal, hey, we're probably getting close to that point. And TiVo, guess what? We were close to that point. We were close to it. We bottomed out. We went from 74K. Now we're at 70, 98, 97K. And Bitcoin's holding on, so it works out once again. And that's why you got to tune in. That's why you got to tune in. You got to come to these, you know, crypto rundowns. We do them every single week, typically at, typically on Wednesday at 10am Eastern time. But again, we like to give out this information. We do it completely for free. And the crypto markets are doing quite well. So I mean, Tiva, do you have any thoughts on that before, before we wrap?
- [39:18]
TiVo
You just gotta pull that, pull that chart back up for the. We could do the three month or we could do the one year. You could kind of see, you know, obviously the beginning of the year. January we're up here. And then, sorry, right here for April 2025, you know, we were down and down there and look, look where we are now. So I mean, it was, it was again, we. And we could go back down there, right? There's. Like I said we said earlier in this episode, no one can, can guarantee where you are. But I mean, historically, when you're down in that, that 10 range, you know, the 10, we were hovering the 10 to 18 for what is that? About a month? A little less. Maybe like three weeks, Two to three weeks. And then the most interesting thing back to Liberation Day is like this was before Liberation Day. Look at the bitcoin leading the way down here. And that's why that fear, the fear peaked here on this chart, at least before even Liberation Day happened, which I think's really interesting. And then it didn't, didn't really touch back to that point. But, you know, here was your, here was your window to window to buy. Right? And then, you know, now we're back up kind of, you know, even levels with what's, you know, in the last year. So again, not, not necessarily a bad time to, you know, accumulate if that's your strategy. Obviously everybody has their own investment strategies that they follow. But whenever you see that fear and greed index in Bitcoin and even in Tradfi we were talking about in Tradfi, it was like, it was like a three and, and that was back when Covid happened and the dot com crisis. So there was a lot of fear and a lot of unknown and shout out to Warren Buffett again, his quote, you know, you buy when there's, you know, blood in the streets is what is when you try to go down and buy. According to him. And he had a great, quite, quite a great career, if not one of the best.
- [41:10]
Alex
Yeah, absolutely. Well, it always goes back to the original saying, like you said, TiVo, buy low, sell high. And we plan to keep this, I.
- [41:21]
TiVo
Mean, historical values of the Fear Greed Index saying that we're in greed right now. Interesting. At least this I know. I don't know.
- [41:28]
Alex
We're kind of teetering on that line. I think the big reason why that's the case is because we haven't seen any kind of like real pullback. I Would say since the bottom, we bottomed at around 74k. What did we do? Well, we took a leg up to 85k. We consolidated, didn't really fall. We consolidated and then we took another leg up and again now we're just consolidating again another $10,000 to the upside, but we're not really falling. And the other thing that we haven't seen is a higher swing low on the daily candle chart since we made our low. So we made a higher high. We just haven't made a higher low. So I think this is kind of looking at that saying we haven't really pulled back, we haven't seen a higher low and we are at resistance. We had a really strong move to the upside over the course of the last month and a half, probably less than that, probably just the last month. And you know, we, we've rose about 30 plus percent. So I think that's where this is coming from. But you know, again we've seen this thing go drastically higher and I don't think we're in that greedy of territory. We are at resistance. We haven't pulled back a lot, but I don't think we're in some like completely overextended, blown out zone here.
- [42:38]
TiVo
Yeah, I, I agree. I think time, time will tell. We're kind of looking for that, for that catalyst again. I don't think anybody can tell you exactly where that's going to come from because there's, there's cases to the downside, there's cases to the upside and there's cases to the, you know, kind of the range. Right. So that's, that's what we're here to do is kind of sniff out those if we see them coming. I think it'll be interesting. The FOMC meeting we've had. I know we always go back to what the December one where he, he nuked us. It's all about the presser. I think everybody knows we're holding rates and he has every reason, you know, I guess this is a little bit of a political comment now in these days, but I think he has every reason to hold because you got to see, you know, the economy's strong and you got to see what these tariffs, you know, how they're going to affect kind of the, the economy as a whole. And so you have every, he has every reason to hold. They're probably going to hold. But then it just comes down to that press conference, man, what is daddy Pal gonna say? And we'll be tuning in. I Think I, I hope at least this is my opinion. I love to hear yours. Before we close out, I think it's going to be a nothing burger. I think he's going to stick to the script. He's not going to say anything inflammatory either way. Basically we have the tools in the toolbox to use if we need them, but the economy looks strong and we need to just kind of wait and see how the economy continues along. So I think that's what's going to happen. I think, you know, maybe there's a slight dip that gets probably bought up pretty quick, but I don't think there's going to be anything too volatile around this. But if there is, I think we'll, you know, we'll come back on later in the week and break it down if there's something crazy that happens. But I don't see, I don't see that in, in the TiVo forecast for what's going to happen today. What about yourself?
- [44:25]
Alex
Yeah, you know, I think it's going to be kind of a nothing burger. I think we saw the odds. It's sitting at 2% for a rate cut. I don't see that changing. I don't. Who knows, maybe we're proven wrong, but it just doesn't look like it's likely. And I'm not betting on anything big. You know, maybe we, I don't know, maybe he comes out, says there's not going to be a rate cut, things are looking good. Maybe people view that as hawkish and it could act as a, as a sell off catalyst. That's what I would imagine is him saying that there's less of a reason to give a rate cut would probably not make people necessarily happy because we've seen a lot of other places around the world, you know, already cut. We've seen it I think happen in, in China and in the eu and so people want there to be cuts but again there's just not as much of a reason for us to do them yet. And so maybe that gets a little bit of a negative response at the end of the day. I don't like to make huge bets on news events and news catalysts like this. I'm not getting levered up going into fomc. That's just not, not what I like to do. So it's anyone's guess things can get volatile and yeah, again we'll check back in here if something really crazy happens, then we'll make an emergency crypto rundown here in, in a couple of days. But yeah, I saw also there's a lot of people in the chat box. You know, we've had Matt and Hollywood and a couple of other people as well asking us some questions. Hollywood was saying, what are our thoughts on pie? And I saw that we linked to our old podcast that we had with them. And you know, they've been around, they've seen some, some pretty big growth. I don't have any exposure to them personally. You know, I think they have a different kind of, they're a different kind of project. So they don't really match my investment thesis. I'm not going to go and say that they're good or bad or anything like that, but I don't have exposure to them. They don't really match what I like to invest in when it comes to crypto assets. But you know, other people out there, I know there are a lot of people who really do like them.
- [46:29]
TiVo
But yeah, always shout out to the chat. Join us live on YouTube. We'll, we'll get your questions. If you're ever interested in asking questions, that's, that's where you get us. You get us on the live, baby. Great viewership today too. Yeah, just, just interesting to see the viewership grow, especially in kind of a sideways market. So we love you guys. Thanks for tuning in.
- [46:51]
Alex
Absolutely. Thank you all for watching again. We do these every single Wednesday around 10:00am Eastern Time. So if you like the content, content that we make here, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. We got lots more content coming your way. We do all sorts of tutorials and podcasts and market updates and you name it. So check out the rest of the videos on the channel. We got something for everyone and if you want to get further plugged in, then you can go down to the link in the description down below. And we got a $1 promo running at the moment where you can get access to our entire crypto portfolio for just a buck. So thank you all for watching. See all of you at the same time, same place, next week.
- [47:40]
Dylan
Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24,7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.