C (7:46)

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A (9:14)

And the one exception was Google coming out and talking about their new quantum computing device, which is Called Willow. Now I had to talk about this a little bit because the idea of quantum computing has been around for so long and every, it feels like every year, every two years, every single market cycle, we get this threat of quantum computing coming in and terrorizing the crypto space. And it's not anything new, it's not anything we haven't seen. I saw this again and I just rolled my eyes. It's like saying like back in the day, oh country is going to ban Bitcoin or oh, there's going to be regulation or someone's going to be selling off Bitcoin or Mount Gox or you fill in the blank. You know, we've had these, these specific areas of FUD and quantum computing has been one of them. And we have seen this so many times. It legit does not even faze me anymore when I hear this stuff and see this stuff. Because you have to think about it, I think on a couple of fronts. Number one, is Google's device capable of hard pushing through wallets and getting seed phrases and hacking blockchains? We legitimately don't even know that yet. And I've seen people debate that that's not even possible given what they have. Number two, can crypto not evolve and adapt? Even if it was possible, the world is already anti quantum computing resistant blockchains and protocols and their safeguards already being made. And it's not to say that you can't adapt to that level. I think number three, if someone has a device that is capable of hacking a major blockchain, then it's also capable of getting nuclear codes and getting government information and hacking some of the biggest asset managers on the planet which have several times the market cap of Bitcoin. So why would they not go after a centralized source that will probably be easier for them to get through? And the list goes on like there's a dozen bigger fish to, to fry and there's a lot bigger sources of money for people who are looking at quantum in a negative sense. And then I think the final one out there is there's this misconception that this mass quantum computing device that can hack blockchains and you know, even get into governments and all this stuff is going to be available to the average person for just everyday use and consumption and it's just not the case. And I think what people did here is that they over exaggerated the capabilities and just access to a device like that. They just over exaggerate the entire process of this willow quantum computing device and then they immediately not only over exaggerate it, but then they apply it in the most violent, negative ways possible, assuming that it can have the worst impact on whatever niche. And people have been saying this for different ones. We just happen to be in crypto, so that's what we hear about. And it's silly because again, I've heard this thing a dozen times over the last couple of years and at this point it just doesn't even faze me anymore. So is this something I'm concerned about? Absolutely not. And I don't want to rant about it too much, but I did see that that was a big reason why we were pushing down over here is because newer people that came into the space who are freaking out going, oh my goodness, I heard an article or I heard someone on social media say that this thing could end bitcoin and it's just not that simple. So anyway, thievau. That's my rant. I don't want to monologue too long here, but I'm sure you saw some of the quantum computing stuff. I mean, Google's stock has been going on a tear since they announced that news. Cool. And I think do a lot of good.

B (12:56)

No, for sure. I think, yeah, it was fought all over the X timeline. I feel like even the average person probably didn't even hear about the Willow announcement, to be honest. Yeah, Google stock took a pop. But I mean, this thing's been under development for a decade. So Google's been working on this project for 10 years, they make a breakthrough, it goes viral. I think the one people definitely would have seen, not necessarily the bitcoin thing, they would have saw that Willow made, made some comment about there being multiple universes. So, you know, my brain cannot comprehend that at all. And you know, yeah, I mean, dude, it's, it's above my pay grade. But you know, the, the FUD on the timeline for crypto was so unwarranted. Like the fact that, you know, it takes 10 years for this thing to spit out. There might be multiple universes like me, you know, hey, me and my buddies in college were talking about that at 3 in the morning. So, you know, 10 years for Willow to tell us that, you know, it doesn't, doesn't really blow my mind. And then, you know, think it's the same thing with AI, right? Where does this go? Is it, you know, sources for good? Is it sources for evil? You're going to see both develop over the next, you know, 5, 10, 20 years. But like, who's to say that you know, a wallet company can't leverage Willow to have, you know, the best wallet protection ever. Like, you know, you don't know which way it's going to go. So it's definitely not something to fret over. And if this thing is breaking into everybody's crypto wallets, you'll be damn sure that it's breaking into everybody's bank accounts and the stock exchanges and the clearing houses and everything. So it's not. It's not a crypto problem. It's an absolute everything problem, if that's the way that it goes.

A (14:33)

I saw so many funny memes on Twitter being like, oh, man, it was just people poking fun at the idea of, you think that this can hack a crypto wallet, but it can't hack your bank account. And I think the average person, like, it's just hilarious, the fact that, oh, this can only be used to go after crypto. And it's like, no, like, if this is possible to do that they're hacking bank accounts and, yeah, I mean, transfer units, all this other stuff. But no doubt, I digress. People, people run with the worst, most overblown scenario of it, but it's not something that I'm freaking out about. And I don't even think the markets are either, because, you know, we're looking at the price of Bitcoin here, push up to $100,700. So we're continuing to move and move and move. And, you know, one of the big catalysts here was cpi. You know, this came out today, came out actually fairly good, really just as expected, for the most part. And there was no, There was nothing unforeseen there. And what happened was the risk markets, you know, NASDAQ, S&P, you know, you look at general stocks, especially tech, but the risk markets across the board, even crypto, reacted really positively to this. And that's why we're seeing this push to the upside is that money's coming back into the risk markets. And we were talking before this, we got PPI tomorrow. We have the Fed meeting next week, and we could be in store for quite a fun time.

B (16:04)

Yeah, we kind of teed it up at the beginning of the show with, hey, 10 days, two weeks of some somewhere where the market doesn't really have a footing. But you get cpi, PPI this week and then the Fed meeting next week. And the most interesting thing that I think is the. With the data that came in today was that our guy, James Safart, put out the percentages as of the data this morning, the percentage of the cut is now 96%. So the market believes there's a 96% chance of a cut. I can bring up his, his Bloomberg terminal here from our guy. Click on that. Maybe for us. You can't really see that, can you? Let's see if we can zoom in on it. There we go. So, yeah, so 96% chance. That was 86% this morning when I woke up at 6am and had my first cup of coffee. The data comes out at 8:30am and now it's up to 96%. So the market definitely is hoping and thinking, not even hoping, but believing that there is a cut. And I think that's, you know, kind of the pace that we're on right now is that we don't want any surprises. The election outcome is now done. We're not worried about that anymore. It's behind us. You've seen the markets across the board rally and then now I think the next thing is the economy. There's a little bit of uncertainty around, you know, hey, what is Trump 2.0 going to look like? You know, business friendly, less regulations, letting people rip. People like that, they know the tax code's not going to change. They like that. Then there's tariffs, maybe that's an unknown. They don't like that, but they can maybe digest that. I think the number one thing people don't want is a re acceleration of inflation and the Fed having to reverse their kind of cutting stance. Now, I think when we were, I think we did a bunch of episodes in the spring and the summer where we were just hoping we needed cuts, we needed cuts, we wanted cuts, we wanted cuts. And I think into the new year, what you're going to see, and this is my opinion, but I think what you're going to see is there's going to be kind of a change of stance, maybe from the Fed of like this, this pace of cutting is probably not going to persist, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. You know, pausing or cutting is what we're looking for. But even a pause isn't bad. But if you do get that pause, some people in the market might panic. If the numbers are coming in hot, there's going to be people that are going to start saying we need, you know, inflation's reaccelerating and we need to raise rates and that would be bad for just risk assets across the board. So I think you could have a chance and we won't dive deep into that now, but I think that's kind of my 2025 outlook is like, how are we digesting this data and the Fed and Trump coming into office? And kind of the number one thing I'm looking at in the new year is kind of that inflation data to make sure people don't necessarily panic. Because if there's a panic, risk assets do get sold off first. And I think crypto falls under that in the 2025 broad view of risk assets for the markets.

A (19:02)

Yeah, yeah. You know, they still do. And it is kind of weird sometimes when we might not meet, you know, rate expectations or sometimes even inflation data. And then you see like bitcoin dumping. You're like, well, I thought that this was supposed to be kind of counter, kind of counterintuitive to inflation, which I firmly believe in. And I think in the long run it is. But in the short term, you know, you're right. You look at the risk markets and they tend to get pulled together. And that's just.

B (19:29)

And I think that's a great debate is like, is this the year we kind of always talk like, all right, bitcoin's obviously more volatile than the S and P. Saylor kind of gives you that breakdown of the S and P. I can't remember the exact numbers, like 2 volume Bitcoin's 10 Vol. And then he does the math because he's a genius. But I think at some point in this bitcoin story, do we decouple from kind of the S and P and make a run. And hey, it kind of feels like this could be the timeline of that story breakout, where bitcoin does kind of go on its own path, which would be great.

A (20:06)

Yeah. And I mean, speaking of Saylor, he was just in the trenches talking about how he's buying another. I think it was $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin. And I'll throw this up on the screen here, but what we've seen is that, yeah, here it is. MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, continued to buy more bitcoin. They bought over 21,550 Bitcoin, which came out to be around $2.1 billion. And so they continue to buy and buy and buy. And here they are, you know, they now have around 41 and a half billion dollars worth of bitcoin. After the rally, it's probably worth even more than that. And they weren't alone. You know, I think, yeah, you were the one who, who put this out, but I saw that micro Strategy or not, MicroStrategy Marathon actually came out and they added to the bitcoin holdings as well. So Marathon came out and said, hey, we're accumulating more bitcoin, we're adding more here. And sure enough, you know, Michael Saylor was not far behind. So Marathon and Microstrategy both buying more bitcoin on this dip, looking at it as an opportunity zone. And that's still what we're doing. So the big players, the big whales, you know, even looking at some of these ETF flows which I have up on the screen over here, even looking at some of these, I saw that Ethereum hit. And where is it? Somewhere down here, over here. You know, Ethereum's ETF flows still had record levels. I mean, you look at what happened on December 2nd, there's over $305 million in inflows there, you know, bouncing kind of back and forth here. We have seen Fidelity actually being one of the lead charges for the Ethereum etf. Some of the other ones are seeing outflows, but Fidelity seeing a lot of really inflows when it comes to Ethereum. So something to keep an eye on over there. But yeah, all around good stuff. You know, we like this. And even just in the general altcoin market, you know, we talked about there being winners, you know, Radium's rallying and Jupiter and some of these other ones. I saw that I'm not sure where it was. But if we go over to even XRP, kind of bouncing off that 20 day moving average, pushing back up, erasing a lot of the losses that it's gotten this week. Another one that's been standing out to me over here has been super, which is actually pushing up and hitting new cycle highs, getting bought up aggressively from this dip. I think even things like sui, you know, you just look at the altcoin market across the board, this thing's coming off a fresh all time high not too long ago. So, you know, Ondo, same story, pushing up into all time highs. We look at, you know, Aerodrome, which is one that we like to talk about, just hit its all time high. And so things are still hot, things are still pumping. And I think regardless of whether you're looking at Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ETFs or Ethereum and the Ethereum ETFs or potentially even some of these Altcoins which could potentially have ETFs. And that's then one of the big takeaway points from the summit TiVo that we're hosting this week is that from talking to These ETF providers and these people who are plugged, plugged into TradFi. One of the big takeaways from my conversations with them is they just say, hey, there is altcoin demand. And with regulation easing up, we want more altcoin ETFs for altcoins that don't have them yet. And we also see the demand for it. So we want it, we see the demand for it. And they also believe that these things can get approved, which is why we've already started to see XRP ETFs and Solana ETFs and, you know, now with the new crypto czar, David Sachs, being bullish on Avax, you know, who knows? Maybe Avax is in line, maybe sui. I mean, the list kind of goes on here, but the one trend that they have kind of told us about is that we want more of these. And I think the end goal is to have enough of these crypto ETFs so that they can very easily be packaged into a single index where people can get access to 10, 20 cryptocurrencies and a single index source without having to go in and actually buying exposure to all these different varieties of ETFs themselves. So something to keep an eye on.

B (24:40)

Yeah, I think the summary of the space right now is just mainstream adoption. And just to circle back on the Michael Saylor point, I know you flash it up real quick, but I think this is really important to hammer home that, yeah, MSTR Micro Strategy is basically, I mean, the timeline went crazy with it. It came off of James Safart again, his Bloomberg terminal, that, you know, Micro Strategy is going to be added to the NASDAQ 100. So if that's true and that does happen, I believe the date was next week, December 20th, something we'll circle back on the next week. But if that does happen, it's just passive flows. So if you give, you know, Michael Strategy is running this, you know, 0% note to raise money to buy Bitcoin, this is another, this is going to be another tool in his toolbox to raise money. It's just going to be passive flows from, you know, billions of dollars passively being flown into MicroStrategy stock that he can then leverage to buy more Bitcoin. And just like Brendan said of, you know, packaging these altcoins into indexes and ETFs, it's like this is the mainstream adoption that kind of we've been talking about for years. And it won't happen overnight. It feels like maybe recently the Kind of belief that it could happen overnight is at an all time high. But it'll take regulation and these little things slowly but surely these little wins like this microstrategy add to the NASDAQ 100. Hopefully that does happen. But those are the type of things you look for that compound over time to just get the kind of the market cap higher for the total crypto market cap.

A (26:15)

Yep. Yeah, I mean it certainly does. And one of those, one of the things that I think a lot of people need to understand is that, you know, if or when Micro Strategy gets added to something like that, all of those funds who have a NASDAQ ETF or an S P or whatever, whenever something makes it into that fund, those groups have to purchase that stock because it's within that, that index. So if they get out of there, it would kind of trigger a buying catalyst where a lot of these groups are forced to acquire Micro strategy as it's now inside of that index. So I think that's just another thing to potentially think about. And again, not financial advice here by any means, but I think it's something to keep an eye on.

B (27:03)

Never is, never is, never is personal financial advice. So where are we going here, Bren? Are we doing supply continues to dry up or did you already cover.

A (27:12)

No, let's talk about supply. You know, I think that that really feeds into the narrative of what we're talking about. And if we just look, and I'm going to put this on the screen for everyone, so bear with me for a quick second. But one of the big things that we have been talking about, in fact, Tevo, I think I saw you even tweeting about this, is when we look at the supply of Bitcoin here, it continues to diminish and diminish and diminish, especially when it comes to the amount of supply of bitcoin on exchanges. You know, you look at Micro Strategy and other companies buying up bitcoin, you look at this idea of a strategic reserve, you look at just people retail, like retail investors buying it, you look at the ETF flows gobbling it up for long term use. And what that means is that the supply continues to be reduced. And when we go back to the most basic law of economics, supply and demand, if supply is reduced and demand continues to increase, the asset will appreciate in price. And that's why we see this chart so inverse from one another. So the blue line here is the supply of Bitcoin and this black line is the price of bitcoin. So if we Zoom out, you know. Yeah, over the start of this year we can see that. And I'm going to even zoom us in here if we zoom into the start of this year. Yeah, it's been very straightforward. The supply has been heading down, the price has been heading up. They're inverse from one another. But it's not something that's just new to us. I mean, if we zoom out to the last couple of years, this has been falling and falling and falling. And when we look at the exchange reserves being over here at, you know, three and a half million, well now they're down to around two and a half million and they just continue to decline as price continues to increase. So I say all this because it is getting more rare. If you're an existing investor, you're going to find this is great news. The people probably a year from now probably won't think that this is as cool of news because if this trend continues where two years from now the exchanges have another billion or not billion, I keep saying billion, another million of bitcoin reserves wiped away. Well, that can easily make price, you know, increase, you know, one fold, two fold, three fold. And we could continue to see really a multi hundred thousand dollar bitcoin if this trend continues. So I think it's something that needs to be talked about a little bit more because we, we really could be entering into a potential supply crisis. And you know, when that happens and there's not enough bitcoin to fill the order books, well, a liquidity happens. And when we get a lack of liquidity, prices are able to move in a more volatile manner. They're skipping zones, skipping marks, skipping ranges. And you know, that's when things really start to soar because the sellers become more scarce with the lack of supply. So yeah, it's a pretty cool metric. I see a lot of people starting to warm up to this idea of hey, this thing's becoming a lot more rare. And you know, even when we look at its really, really low inflation rate on bitcoin, I think it's around like what, I don't know what it is after having. I think it's just over 1%. You know, maybe the audience can fact check me on that. But it's really low. It's lower than the dollar, it's lower than most fiats. And on top of the extremely low inflation rate, we also just have a mass reduction of supply. So some would even argue that it is potentially deflationary with the supply chain going the way that it is.

B (30:52)

Quick, quick. Google Fact check, it says 1.8%, but will only continue to decrease over time. So take that for what it's worth for a quick Google. But I could, I could piggyback on your, on your bullish sentiment. So to kind of end the show here, we always try to bring you some news clips so you can hear it from, from other people's mouths, not just our own. And again, I think, again, politics aside, I know sometimes we get some comments that we talk about politics a little bit from some random commenters. I think most people enjoy it in the sense that we're trying to give them direction of where this thing is going. But we had a big conference this week, Bitcoin Mena. It was the inaugural conference in Abu Dhabi and there were some people from basically the Trump team that were speaking. And so I put together a quick 40, 50 second clip here and it's two different people. So the first person you're going to hear is Paul Manafort. He is like, he was a Trump campaign chairman. So basically he helped guide this campaign, build the plan, and he's speaking at this bitcoin conference. Obviously, Trump spoke at bitcoin Nashville. So he was help guiding where the conversation was going for the Trump campaign. And he's still talking about being bullish in crypto. Think about it this way. If they wanted to win the campaign and just get the vote, they probably wouldn't be going to conferences anymore now that they won.

A (32:11)

Right?

B (32:12)

But they're still pounding the streets talking crypto. So the first clip you're going to hear is Paul Manafort talking about the future of bitcoin in the, in the Trump administration. And then the second part of the clip is Eric Trump, Donald Trump's son, basically just hyping up bitcoin. It was all over the X feed yesterday. So I put these two clips together and thought you guys might like to hear him. So here they are, the strongest advocate you could possibly have at this point in time. And he's only going to be stronger because when he goes back to the White House in January, one of the first things he's going to be doing is to clean out the SEC and put together people in an administration that will look at bitcoin as part of, as he said, the strategic reserve of the United States. So I think there's a lot of exciting times ahead. To those of you who are celebrating $100,000 bitcoin, you're going to be celebrating much higher very soon.

A (33:07)

I think I can tell you a lot of eyes were opened when bitcoin hit 100,000 and I can tell you a hell of a lot more eyes are going to be opened when Bitcoin hits 1 million. And I'm confident it's going to hit 1 million. I think we're all confident in this room that's going to hit a million.

B (33:29)

So these are the people, you know, around the next President of the United States. And you know, I think Paul kicked it off saying you couldn't ask for, you know, a better person to represent crypto in the White House and talked about the bitcoin reserve again. I mean if these people so close to Trump, I, when this bitcoin reserves talk started, I was like, man, that would be cool. But I don't, you know, I don't know. I don't know. I'm coming around to the idea honestly, like these people that they are at Mar a Lago having dinner with this guy all the time, they're talking to him, they're building plans. And I think if you go back and look at Trump 1.0 again, whatever your thoughts are on him, he loved the stock market. He loved when it was at all time highs. He loved when it was rallying and when it wasn't, it was a point of his to hold press conferences to talk about how he's going to fix it. And it was almost like a Trump put was in. And you know, I remember when, when the rally, dude, when the rallies were happening and you know, even Biden had all time highs multiple times. I mean the stock market has only gone up over a decade plus forever really. But like on a big day in the markets, dude, he would call into Fox from his, from the Oval Office and be like, hey, you see that? All time highs, America's great, all that. He loves it. And I truly think that the bitcoin price is going to be right up there with the stock market price for him. And so heading into next year, like I really think you could possibly strategize around a Trump put being in place.

A (34:52)

And it doesn't have to be that hard. You know, people overcomplicate it. If the President and his cabinet and his advisors and his close friends, if his whole administration is being like, hey, we want to do this. They're even saying, we think it's going to go a whole heck of a lot higher. We think it's going to hit $1 million. You know, they talk about how they're bullish and they want to ease regulation and they want to create a reserve and they're Just telling you plainly, the people who are going to be in charge of the largest financial market in the world is saying, we want to moon this thing essentially. And it doesn't have to be any more complicated. It doesn't have to be cryptic. They're saying, hey, we want to do everything in our power to push this thing up and to make it go higher. And so I'm just saying, hey, let's take the easy road, let's agree with them, let's get on board and let's ride this thing. I had someone who was talking a bit of smack to me a couple days ago during the trough of that crash that we just had, and he's saying, the run's over, it's dead, it's never going to return. Turned to 100k and I said, well, you know, let me, let's, let's talk, let's talk in a few days, you know, let's save this conversation for later. And, you know, sure enough, here we are. And I'm immediately after this podcast or after, you know, this episode, I'm going to go back there and I'm going to say, hey, buddy, we want you on our team. I'm not going to say anything mean. I'm just going to say, hey, we want you on our team. Become a bull with us. There's a lot of, there's a ton of reasons to become one.

B (36:24)

Is this what he looked like?

A (36:27)

You know, not, not. Not quite. I wish. That is hilarious.

B (36:34)

Yeah, no, take, take, take a victory lap. I mean, it's 100k. You could victory lap on that alone for a couple months. But I know we got a couple minutes left because you got somewhere to be. Let's end on one more thing. Randomly adding in here last minute. But the Bitwise team put out their 2025 price predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. So let's just take. Oh, where'd it go? Let's just take a look at that. Price targets. Bitcoin, $200,000. Ethereum $7,000. Solana 750. Obviously there's your catalysts and potential headwinds and whatnot. I listened to Matt, our guy, Matt Hogan talk about these and he did say he's like, hey, these are some of the, you know, when we were making these, you know, a couple months ago last month, like, you know, we're excited about them, but like the last couple weeks, people have come out and just started shouting from the rooftops, 250, 300, 500,000. Bitcoin by next year. And he said these are kind of low compared to a lot of other people. And he personally said, you know, again, never financial advice, not putting that into Matt's world. But he said, I could definitely see it going higher than these. But this is, this is kind of our base case. So Bitwise is getting us bold up going into the end of the year here into 2025, along with a lot of others.

A (37:52)

Yeah, I mean, it's just endless catalysts no matter where we look. Endless catalysts. We're seeing a lot of good price appreciation. So, you know, again, maybe we're a little bit biased here, but how can you not be? How can you not be? I saw that even NASDAQ today, in light of that, CPI news rallied to a new all time high after tanking for the last couple of days. And here we are, you know, and I think just as easily bitcoin can just shoot its way up, hit a new all time high and continue a lot, really just past that. And I think all coins can do the same as well. So that's going to go ahead and give us a wrap on this episode. Tivo we're optimistic. I think the whole crypto market is looking good. Bitcoin, altcoins, fundamentals, technicals on chain analytics, anything that we look at, we are pretty excited. And all that we ask here is that if you like the content that we make, consider hitting that like button. Consider hitting that subscribe button. Check out some of the other links that we have. We got a great YouTube channel for those of you who are watching. You can check us out at the Crypto101 podcast on YouTube. We have all sorts of tutorials and market updates and, you know, live streams and podcasts that you can check out completely for free. And if you want to get more plugged in, we got a really great crypto community called Crypt Nation. We can get plugged into thousands of other like minded individuals, see what they're talking about, see what they're interested in, you know, bounce ideas off them. You know, you can also get access to me and the other analysts over here like Bryce and Raheem and everyone else. So we hope to see everyone over there, but that's gonna go ahead and wrap us up. So thank you all for watching and we're gonna see all of you at the same time, same place next week.

C (39:49)

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