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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Genius Act Passes Senate: The Billion Dollar Stablecoin Trade You Need to Know
00:54:18
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign.
- [00:10]
Brendan
Welcome back to your weekly market rundown here in the crypto sector where we talk about everything that's going on from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And man, I hope everyone is buckled up because we are in store for a very volatile and a very large week in the crypto markets. Just today, over on the TRADFI side, we have Jerome Powell coming out, talking out, talking about his interest rate decision. Is the Fed gonna cut, are they gonna hold the stain? We're gonna be talking about that and the future plans that they have. We also have fomc. It's a really big week in relation to the trading by markets because of that as well. But then here in the crypto markets, we have hundreds of millions of dollars coming into these strategic bitcoin reserves. And on top of that, we have billions of dollars flowing into the Bitcoin ETFs. Now, altcoins have been exploding as well. There has been a handful of altcoins that are not only have their own ETF applications out there, and we talked about that last week, but now we're starting to see treasury strategies for a handful of these altcoins like Ethereum, like Tron, like xrp, and they're popping up left and right. So we're going to talk about that a little bit more. But now that we have started to see the genius act in relation to the stablecoin market work its way through the government start passing its way through everything and get a lot, get a lot of the green lights that it needed, everybody wants in. And I'm not underestimating this at all. In fact, I think if anything, we're selling the short because JP Morgan has already filed for a trademark stablecoin. We have Deutsche bank following up and saying, hey, we're interested in making our own stablecoin. Bank of America is doing it as well. And then we even have Fortune 500 companies like Walmart and Amazon getting into this. And now we have Treasury Secretary Besson saying, hey, I'm really excited about this space. We're going to show the tweets, we're going to show what he's been saying, but he's saying this could become a $3.7 trillion market cap. By that. I say the stablecoin market could become that. And let me just say, if that happens to stablecoins and we reach a near $4 trillion market cap, the crypto sector would explode. Like we have never seen it before. You'd probably have a, you know, maybe a $10 trillion Bitcoin market cap. You'd have altcoins exploding trillions of dollars in market cap. And so there's just a lot of stuff to be excited about here today and we hope everyone is equally as ready to kick this week off. So welcome back everyone and of course I got my good buddy Mr. Tebow here with me. TiVo. Good to have you, man.
- [02:47]
TiVo
Yes, good to be here a lot. As we say every week, there's always so much going on in the space. This week is literally no different. Obviously a lot of macro forces with, you know, everything going on in the world. And then also the Fed decision is today, but kind of similar to last time, it's, it's kind of teed up to be a, a no cut. What 99% odds as of recording this. So especially with everything going on sadly in the Middle east and all that, it's like kind of feels like a non event today. But as always, if something crazy happens as you listen to this or after you listen to this, we'll be back on to kind of give you a recap if something insane happens. But there's so much other stuff going on that we have a full episode to run down on and, and I think, yeah, this is, our rundown is packed. I think this is going to be like a 40, 45 minute episode for sure. But before we start, Brennan, want to give a shout out to one of our, one of our friends of the program. We're seeing this on Twitter the other day. We love everybody in the comments and X and YouTube. But the Creat was he was sent you that, that, that tweet that he sent our way. He was, he was asking for another rundown this week. So shout out to the creator. I mean that guy seems to be there every week with us. We love everybody on YouTube. Sadly, the YouTube shout out to our friends watching now I see a bunch of you but the. For some reason the chat is not working on YouTube for us on our end. Lives can't interact this week as of now, hopefully that changes. You know, just always a shout out to the community. I, I feel like we're, we're growing for sure.
- [04:16]
Brendan
I see the chat on my end.
- [04:18]
TiVo
Okay. I don't see it on. I don't see it on my end. Maybe, maybe I'll refresh.
- [04:22]
Brendan
Yeah, maybe.
- [04:23]
TiVo
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- [06:06]
Brendan
Give it a refresh and people that are listening in live say something in the chat box. You know we can see if it if it works or not. But yeah, I mean Tebow, it's good to see that the community members are getting involved. I saw that tweet as well. So shout out to all the great listeners out there and let's really kick this off with price action because man have we had a volatile time here and this is nothing new, right? Cryptocurrency is always volatile. I think all a lot of us have become somewhat accustomed to this, but bitcoin has a big Old squeeze forming on the daily chart. Now what does this mean? Well, as we approach the all time highs up here, we actually hit new all time highs on bitcoin. We have been seeing lower highs and higher lows over here on bitcoin, forming a pennant, or what we would call a bull flag. Now the reason that we call this a bull flag is because it looks like a flagpole, right? So we have the bull poll right here and then the bull flag right here. And so the way that this typically works is that we have the move up, we have a continuation pattern where we squeeze and this zone gets tighter and tighter and tighter. And that's kind of where we're at now here as all the pressure is, you know, quite literally squeezing. And everyone's watching to see are we going to break out to the upside and sort of new all time highs we or are we going to break this structure to the downward side and maybe go below 100k again? And that's really kind of the way that I see this happening here is whichever way we break, I think we have room for about a $10,000 move. So if we break here, we could go down to the mid-90s. If we break to the upside here, I think we could go to, you know, really close to like 120,000 and somewhere in that range. And I don't think that that's anything too crazy. So pressure really is building. There's a big old squeeze from this pennant. I think it's worth keeping an eye on for all those crypto traders, day traders, swing traders, even investors. Because if we do get a, a slip dip in a rip where we break down to the mid-90s, you know, that is a huge point of support where we have the 200 day moving average and we also have the volume point of control. As we zoom out here, you can kind of see this a little bit better. But as we zoom out here, you can see that this will coincide very closely with that 200 day moving average right around the mid-90s. So as this is bulging out, that's where the volume point of control is. It's where the 200 day moving averages and it's a huge zone to keep an eye on. Now beyond bitcoin just being in a big squeeze and grabbing a lot of attention, altcoins have been going nuts. TiVo. If we're just going to highlight a few of these, I mean, man, aerodrome's up 16% on the day. It just feels like it can't stop, won't stop. That means that since June 5th this guy's up almost 80%. Pushing up to that 200 day moving average, hitting new swing highs. It's a great sight to see. Beyond this we've seen a couple of other big runners. Aave has been tearing to the upside. Recovering a little bit now or retracing a little bit now. Hyper liquid, same story, tearing to the upside. Euler for a long time tearing to the upside. Fart coin. Similar story over here. Makers been crushing it in a nice uptrend. Where do we even stop Syrup? We can't leave this one out. Going parabolic, hitting new all time highs just you know, the past two days. And so the list goes on. You know, SPK has been going, or excuse me, SPX has been going really, really well. Virtuals has been tearing back to the upside hundreds of percent. And so the altcoin market is on fire. And I know a lot of people that are holding the legacy coins are saying it's not on fire, my coins aren't moving, they're not doing anything. And you know, there are a lot of coins that aren't, but there's a lot of ones that are. And so I think people are somewhat frustrated that these old legacy coins aren't doing as crazy of moves as they were used to in previous cycles. And that's because we tend to see this stuff move on like a secular basis where it's like, hey, they had a great cycle. Now other coins are going to do what they did, what those old coins did in their previous cycles. Now there's a time for these new coins to shine. And that's what we're seeing here with a lot of these coins, like virtual, like syrup, like fart coin, like hyper liquid, like Euler. And there are some like even aerodrome. And there are some coins that have been around for maybe a cycle or two that are mixed in there. But on average a lot of these newer coins are outperforming the market and so. And they're crushing it too. I mean hundreds and hundreds of percent just in the last month or two and some of them even in the last couple of weeks. So keep an eye on the altcoin market and also keep a close eye on bitcoin here everyone. Because whatever bitcoin does that is going to determine the overall general theme of the market, right? So if bitcoin tanks, the odds are most altcoins are going to tank regardless of whether they're doing well. If bitcoin soars to new all time highs, the odds are most altcoins even if they're not doing the best, are probably going to go up. So whatever like Bitcoin and Ethereum are doing here, however, they're kind of leading the way that is going to determine the overall like macro direction of the market. So we're keeping a close eye on both of these as Bitcoin is trying to hold on to the 50 day moving average and Ethereum is trying to do the same thing. And Ethereum has been relatively pretty strong here in recent weeks. So worth keeping an eye on both of these. We want to see them get back above some of these key levels of resistance and they're certainly the catalyst that can get us back up there. I know that we have FOMC and interest rate decisions as you kind of mentioned TiVo, so people are just sitting on the sidelines a little bit until those events happen here on Wednesday. And I think as we get a little bit more clarity, we'll probably get some sort of a move and I think volatility resumes either towards the end of this week or maybe even the beginning of next week. But I would imagine that volatility resumes here a little bit. I know like Ethereum's price has kind of been frozen in between you know, 24 and like 20 or 25 and 2600. Bitcoin has been a little bit frozen in between 104 and like 107. Again I start, I would imagine that we start resuming some sort of a trend, whether that's up or down, after a lot of this news kind of clears up and we get all that stuff passed. But that's my thoughts there. Has anything stood out to you with this market?
- [13:00]
TiVo
Yeah, I can, I can share a quick, quick thing I post. I think you saw it just a little bit. Basically a meme of some simple evening ta. And again, we're not diving into the politics of it. It's obvious a sad situation around, but the USA is getting involved at least verbally in, in this conflict in the Middle east and you know, between the Fed and inflation and then now this being the biggest switch of what could happen, what might not happen. Are we negotiating? Are we going hot? You know, kind of feels like everybody's on the edge of their seats there. So a little, a little up or down there on whether the US makes a decision one way or the other I think is kind of what could send us exactly building off of your last, your last theory there. Like, hey, we're kind of bouncing around, we're looking for a direction to Go. And I think this is one of the larger catalysts to keep an eye on and again taking the actual event out of it because that's not what we do here. We can't break that down for you. But it is a big decision. It is a worldly event. And obviously as we've seen before and we've covered before, go back to August with like the Nakai trade when you know that Japanese Nakai trade had to unravel. It was, it was a world financial event that affected everything from, from Bitcoin to the S&P 500. Right. So I think this is something similar they just want to keep an eye on. I don't know about you, I'm not making bets either way by any means. It's just, you know, you're monitoring the situation and it's, it's volatility that I think at least in my mind could send us kind of one way or another depending on the direction that we head.
- [14:38]
Brendan
Yeah, you know, that's certainly playing a factor. I have looked at some studies and some previous data talking about what tends to happen with these conflicts, especially in like the Middle East. And the way that it looks is that it's short term pain, but long term gain. And when I say short term, like usually the pain lasts days to maybe weeks at the very, very most and it's typically followed by an uptrend. And that's again assuming that there's not mass escalation which is always a possibility. But my mindset here is I'm not so much worried about what happens with like the geopolitical side of things. I am a little bit more concerned about what happens. And again this is strictly not saying like concerned with like what happens in the world, but concerned like with how this actually impacts the crypto market and the markets in general. I think that whatever we're going to hear at Jerome Powell speech today and FOMC and all of that, I think that is going to play a bigger role and how the markets are impacted. So we're going to have to see what their like future talks are, their guidance and that stuff. I think that's going to be pretty impactful. And like you said, you know, we're probably not going to get any change today. We're probably not going to get anything crazy. But I think people are worried about whether, whether inflation could heat up in the summer and maybe get worse because of, of tariffs or what their kind of guidance looks like for the future. There's a lot of talks now that hey, we're not going to be cutting rates until the end of the year. And maybe we only get one rate cut then. And so that could be something that causes people to be a little bit more pessimistic about the markets, because crypto typically responds in a really positive way to rate cuts. And so when we look at the last Couple of years TiVo, I wish I had this data in front of me, but the Fed has kind of been underperforming in comparison to their expectations. So they come out and they say, oh, we're going to cut rates this many times and then they don't do it. And then they come out and say, oh, we're going to cut rates this many times and this and that, and then they don't do it. And so people have been getting really frustrated with the fact that they're saying one thing and underperforming and doing another. And the crypto market again responds good when the Federal Reserve is cutting rates. And so hopefully we see that sooner rather than later and we don't see that shoved off and kind of dwindle away from, you know, a couple that we were expecting to maybe only one. And that's one thing that I'm keeping an eye out on. So between two and three o'clock today, we're going to get a lot of clarity on that front. So I am kind of just watching the markets a little bit here. I have to say. I'm sitting on my hands. Me and you were talking about this. We're sitting on our hands, sitting on a little bit more cash than normal. And you know what, that's okay. It is okay to do, to do that at times like this. Now I've been making a few trades here and there. I actually tried taking a stab at a bitcoin long here in the past, like week or two and been trading some of that. But for the most part, I'm kind of sitting on my hands. I'm saying let's get a little bit more data, like let's see where things are at and then kind of approach it from there. But in the meantime, like I've said, there's been these altcoins that have been crushing it and it's been really fun to play things like syrup and all those other ones that have been going crazy. Maker has been another one that I've had my hand in.
- [17:49]
TiVo
And I mean, dude, honestly, I like to do this every once in a while, but shout out to us, shout out to the podcast team. In the last year, I know that We've had Aerodrome on in the last year. I know that we had the head of Maker Dao. We interviewed him in Austin. He was part of our summit series in the podcast. And we had Syrup on. We, we, we literally had Sarah on, I think like right before they were launching or the week they were launching. I mean, this is, this is the place to get Alpha. I mean, obviously we, we, we welcome you guys to check out the links below and join the community so you can get in touch with Bryce and Brendan. The whole have touch points literally every day of the week. But we do this once, twice a week for free and just absolutely feeding you Alpha. It's an all you can eat buffet of Alpha. And. And we appreciate you being here.
- [18:31]
Brendan
Yeah. I mean, we even had a. Oh, man, his name's slipping my mind. But we had a hedge fund. Oh, it's going to kill me. I'll have to pull it up and track it down. But we had a Buddy on about 2 months ago who runs a hedge fund and he was talking about Fartcoin and giving us Alpha over there.
- [18:50]
TiVo
Renick PALEY. Renick Paley, 100%, yeah.
- [18:53]
Brendan
Yes. Yeah. Renick was talking about it and he said, look at Farquin. And that thing has just been performing beautifully. We had someone from the Ethereum team on. It's. I guess you could say it's been ripping a pun intended, but like. And then we had an Ethereum member on. Right. And Ethereum has been dominant here for a little while. And so TiVo, good call out there. Good catch. We love doing these and we love doing them completely for free. So we're trying to give out as much free Alpha as we can here. But I guess going back into what we've seen with the stablecoin market, that has been a huge catalyst here. TiVo, when you look at the Genius bill and the way that it's been working its way through, I think I saw that it. I know it passed the Senate and I think. Did it pass the House as well?
- [19:36]
TiVo
Yep.
- [19:37]
Brendan
Yeah. I mean, this thing is ripping. Yeah, take it away.
- [19:39]
TiVo
No, I was saying the, the Genius bill is, is basically on its. On its way. You know, it's bipartisan. I think the coolest part about the Genius bill is it is bipartisan. So it's, it's not one of those politically driven events where it's. People on one side of the aisle want it, people on the other side don't. I mean, there's Democrats and Republicans across the board that want this to get done, except for Liz Warren, of course, who's screaming and crying trying to get this thing changed. But yeah, I think this is, this is a bipartisan piece of legislation that that's going to, to go through and it's, it's giving a lot of momentum to the stablecoin market. That's the title of this episode, that's the thumbnail. So it's the meat and potatoes of maybe why you're here today. So we're going to kind of go through and talk about everything from. I know we can kick around the circle subject in a second, but there's all these companies now that are popping up saying that, you know, they, they want to have their own stablecoin or be involved in the stablecoin market in some way. And it just makes sense off of the back of the momentum of this bill as it seems to be going through the process of becoming a law.
- [20:38]
Brendan
Well, let's talk about it, let's dive into it because JP Morgan, one of the largest financial players in the world, we're talking about like trillions of dollars in assets under management. And they came out, we're going to put it on the screen here. And this is a good reminder, if you're tuning in from Spotify or Apple podcasts or anywhere else and you want to see the visuals on the screen, you got to go over to our YouTube channel, which is the Crypto 101 podcast on YouTube. But here we have it pulled up for everyone. And JP Morgan has trademarked a stablecoin filing. You know, they are looking at creating their own stablecoin titled jpmd. And this is a really, really big deal. So they say, you know, this is for goods and services, this is for trading, exchanging, transferring payment services, all for digital assets, including virtual and digital currency, digital tokens and payment tokens, decentralized application tokens and blockchain enabled currencies. This also includes electronic fund transfers, security brokerage, real time token trading, custody services and secure online financial transactions. So basically they want this to be an all encompassing umbrella so that they can use it cross border any time of the day, instantaneous for a fraction of the cost and they see the value. So if one of the largest traditional financial players, one of the largest asset managers in the world is doing this and it's real and it's happening because of the genius act and the clarity that we're getting over there. Also, Thibault, again, I don't want to toot our own horn too much, but we've had a ton of guests on who've been saying, watch the stablecoin market. Watch the stablecoin market. And they've been telling us that and we've been saying, hey, how do we get exposure to this, this and that? And we'll get into that in just a second. But JP Morgan's doing this and they're not alone with Deutsche bank coming out and they are exploring stablecoins as well. This is awesome because it says, hey, we're exploring this idea of stablecoins and tokenized deposits. Bank of America, I don't think we have a link for this, but bank of America, they came out and they're saying the same thing. A huge player. Again, if you're in the United States, you know who bank of America is. If you're outside, I'm sure you can get the idea in the name. But another huge player saying, hey, we're looking at creating our own stablecoin and there's a clip, you know, we can actually even potentially play it if we want to though. But there's a clip of their CEO talking about this exact subject currency.
- [23:21]
TiVo
It's pretty clear there's going to be a stablecoin which is going to be a full of dollar backed type of thing, which is no different than a money market fund with check access, is no different than a bank account really. And so if they make that legal, we'll go into that business. So you'll have a Bank of America coin and a US dollar deposit and we'll be able to move them back and forth. Because now it hasn't been legal for us to do it, but it's just then like another foreign currency. The question of what it's useful for is going to be interesting.
- [23:50]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, it's crazy. He's basically saying, hey, if they approve this, we're going to do it. There's no reason not to.
- [23:58]
TiVo
Yeah, I think it's just gonna get created and then there's not. It's not just banks, right?
- [24:04]
Brendan
Yeah.
- [24:04]
TiVo
Kind of sharing the screen here, but I'll throw it up. It's Walmart, Amazon exploring issuing their own stable coin. It just feels like, and I'll toss it back to you here, but it feels just like an unlock of liquidity. Like that just feels like the term that these guys and businesses and banks, everybody's licking their chops because it's just gonna unlock more liquidity.
- [24:26]
Brendan
It is, it's, it's a huge unlock of liquidity. And I think Scott Besson said it best and we'll, we'll pull up that tweet, but he's saying if like all this plays out, he sees this being a $3.7 trillion stablecoin market and the amount of liquidity that that would bring into the crypto sector would be gigantic. If we see that kind of capital come into the stablecoin market, Bitcoin would be skyrocketing. Ethereum, Solana, everything else would be skyrocketing. You'd also see a lot of these stablecoins buying US Debt. This is a good thing for the crypto market, it's a good thing for the United States, and it's a good thing for these investors. The people who own cryptocurrency are going to be benefiting. The US Economy is going to be benefiting because they're going to have people buying their debt, expanding it. It also creates a healthy relationship between the crypto market and the United States. You know, we should never, if this happens, we should never see the United States coming after the crypto market like it was in the past several years because it would be mutually destructive for them to do that because the all these stablecoin providers are going to be massive buyers of US Treasuries. So again, this is a good thing for everyone. He says, hey, this is a win win for everyone involved. And he gives the checkmarks to the private sector, to the treasury, to the consumers. And I agree. So again, regardless of where you stand on politics, we're seeing bipartisan support of this. And I think that's really the way that everyone should be approaching this. Doesn't matter if you're left, right sideways, you know, we could care less. But there's bipartisan support for this for a reason. And that's because it looks like a win win situation. And if you're a crypto holder, you'll want to see this at the end of the day.
- [26:18]
TiVo
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- [29:19]
Brendan
Just gigantic news and fingers crossed. We see those trillions of dollars flow into the StableCoin Market because TiVo, you know, not only the listeners, but I know me and you, we have our, our fair share of crypto. We would be benefiting as well. And one can only hope, I know.
- [29:36]
TiVo
Going to say transition into like kind of the circle conversation. So everybody and I know we've talked about on the podcast, like you mentioned with our guests is like, hey, how do we get exposure? How do we get exposure? And I like tradfi was kind of asking the same questions. And then we, we had the circle ipo. I don't know if you have that in trading view. Can you pull up circle and just show the show the absolute rocket ship that has been circle from. I believe it was like a $33 IPO or something. And it's, you know, trading around, you know, in the hundreds. And so people got super excited about this IPO and sent it straight to the moon from, from its IPO day. You got a percentage for us there, almost 400%. Unreal. So this was something that went live. You could have bought it on your brokerage and it's exposure to the stablecoin market. And so the conversation that we can kick around here is, you know, obviously the valuation of this company sky high. We were talking about that before the show, Brendan. It's like an insane valuation, but it's, it's investors, hedge funds, companies, retail being like, is this the only way to get exposure to stablecoins? Right. Because it's kind of limited in a way. And my thought was, and I'd love to hear your opinions, was, okay, this is the first to market. So you obviously, you have a first to market advantage in the sense of people wanting exposure. And you see that with the last, you know, two and a half, three weeks that it's traded. But now that it went through the IPO process and it went through the regulation and now you have the genius bill, I mean, all that momentum is, is probably Priced in if we're being honest, at least to this point. But yeah, when you talk about the big dog of Tether, I think questions kind of still remain about how involved companies, especially U.S. publicly traded companies, can be involved with Tether because they're so worldwide and they don't follow kind of the one regulation or the other. So that was kind of my view. I did reach out to Tether to try to get somebody on and Circle I'm trying to like, because the conversation is hot. I just, I think we have a ton of questions we could ask them and continue to learn. But that, that was my initial thought is like it's kind of a first to market thing. So there might be a little hype into this. Clearly a little bit of FOMO because I mean house, do you get 400% in two weeks? But you know, what are your thoughts on it? And you know, kind of the direction of this market and then I guess gaining exposure. You know, I know this was something that our team and we talked about it with Brian and Joe that Friday was like our whole team, you included, was like we got to get some exposure to Circle when it comes out. And it was, it was a great call.
- [32:10]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean there's a couple of that I think everyone needs to understand about Circle. They have a PE ratio of around 1700, right? That is the largest P E ratio I think I have ever seen for a decent sized market cap company. So they have a PE ratio of nearly 1700. They have a market cap of 35 and a half billion. Their revenue is I think what's kind of crazy, right? So they're doing around $578 million in revenue. I think what people are excited about here is the rate at which they're increasing their revenue. So they grew the revenue by 1,942% in comparison to their previous quarter and they have a 983% year over year increase in revenue. So when you look at this, the numbers look pretty impressive, right? Year over year, almost 1,000%. In the last quarter they grew at almost 2,000%. And this is according to Google and I believe it was Yahoo Finance. That's pretty exciting. And so now what you have here is them ipoing when bitcoin was at an all time high. You have them ipoing in a very crypto friendly regulation. You have them ipoing as the Genius act is getting passed and approved. And there's also really no other way to get true exposure from the tradfi markets on stablecoins. And so it's been this perfect storm scenario where all these factors are coming together at the exact same time. And it has just exploded from 30 bucks to 160 bucks. Having this almost 400% increase in the last two or so weeks. And now that it's sitting and TiVo, we were talking about this before this. I don't like PE ratios. I don't like measuring anything in PE ratios. I think it's a, it's a, I mean, to put it nicely, I think it's a horrible way and it's a very like noob friendly way of measuring socks. Like usually, you know, people that are brand new to the space and they don't really know the market well, they say, oh, P.E. this and that because they've heard it before. And it's a super easy metric to read. But like, I don't think it's a great way of measuring stocks. However, I've never ever seen a PE ratio of 1700 on anything that is a semi, semi mainstream stock. I don't even know about. Just a normal like micro cap stock. 1700 is crazy. And you know, you have to think, you know, is this priced in because of what we're seeing over here? Is it overvalued? Like, we don't know when they're growing their revenue at 1000% per year and 2000% per quarter. I think that is what people are excited about, especially if they say that, hey, this is going to be a multitrillion dollar space. Circle is now one of the front runners of this space and it's only valued at 35 billion. When Scott Besant is saying it could be 4 trillion, like, does that really matter? Does the P E ratio even matter if it has room to do another like 200x to get to the market cap of, of where it's at? Actually, even more than that, almost like a 300x to even get towards the market cap of where Scott Besson is saying it can be by the end of this decade. So there's a lot of factors to consider here. I think ultimately this is going to remain a very volatile chart. But if the revenue keeps up in the same way that it is from stablecoins. And the amazing part about it is that these stablecoin companies, tether Circle, all of them, the amount that they make of revenue per employee is ridiculously good, right? Because they have such low cost, they have such a small amount of employees that are able to create this overhead that their expenses are a lot lower and they have some of the largest amounts of revenue per employee out of any company in the world. So that's another thing to kind of consider as well. So the stablecoin market and the crypto market here is at a very unique inflection point where we're trying to appropriately value this stuff. But there's so many future things about what it could be and what we're anticipating it to be. And I think that's where people are trying to target price right now. They're not saying, hey, it should make sense today because it doesn't make sense given the current situation. But that's not what people are measuring it by. They're not measuring it by what is the values in the numbers today. They're saying what could the values in the numbers be by a year from now, from five years from now. And I think that's what people are trying to get in here. And we see that a lot in the markets, whether it's crypto or stocks or whatever. And that seems to be the big focus point at the moment.
- [36:37]
TiVo
Yeah, and again, we'll put a lid on this with these numbers here. So I just pulled up the averages, right? So you know, if you want to pull, you know, healthcare 20, 25 average, PE energy 10 to 15, along with financial financials, and then this would be basically a technology, right? So your technology PS are 30 to 40 on average. But you know, pull your Teslas. I know Palantir is a big one right now where these PEs are just astronomical because, you know, that's the argument, you know, you see on TV with Tesla, it's so funny. People come on and they're like, I don't know, it's a car company, it's a car company. And then you got people like, it's not a car company, it's a, you know, it's a self driving. It's robots, it's the future. And so that's, you know, the, that, you know, difference in opinion. It kind of gives you how that p rockets. And then obviously Palantir being with AI and kind of the state of the world we're in currently, people are rallying behind that stock as well. So something, something definitely to keep tabs on. But it's kind of the circle. I'm sorry, Circle ipo. But it's the crypto. It's the crypto IPO year, right? I mean, it's just. We saw Circle and then we got another news this week. Looks like Tron wants to go public with a reverse merger with srm. Now, I'm not. I don't want to put you on the spot, Brandon, because I guess we didn't really talk about this. I don't really know what a reverse merger is as much as I think it's two companies kind of combining to create a new one and then it goes public. Kind of sounds like a SPAC almost. But either way, I. I think the Tron team saw what happened with Circle and was like, we gotta get a. We gotta get an IPO out to the markets.
- [38:11]
Brendan
Yeah. I mean, there's been a lot of companies that have seen what has happened with Circle and want to get in on the price action. Right. We're seeing it with Gemini, we're seeing it with Tron, we're seeing it with Uphold. There's a lot of companies out there that are looking to do something very, very similar now. I don't see them having the same level of success. I don't see any of these companies having the same level of success that Circle did. Because, again, the genius Bill, this was a massive step in the right direction of stablecoin and the stablecoin legislation. And previous to this, there's been no way to get exposure. That is why Circle has been so big. I think with Gemini, you could say, hey, we can already get public exposure to Coinbase. With Tron, people can go and they've been able to get public exposure to any cryptocurrency with. Was the one other one Uphold. Right. Well, now we could go and get exposure to potentially Gemini and Coinbase. So there's Coin. There's a cryptocurrency exchanges out there that people could get exposure to. So I'm not saying that they won't be successful, but what I am saying is I don't see them having the same reaction that Circle did because it's a little bit different of circumstances. So when we're looking at Tron and this reverse. What was. What were they calling it? A reverse merger?
- [39:36]
TiVo
Yeah, reverse merger.
- [39:37]
Brendan
This is essentially a way for them to be able to go public. Yeah, we'll see. It's not something that I would say I'm, like, ridiculously hyped about, but I'm also, like, not negative on it. It's just like, you know, we'll see. I know that I'm maybe a little bit biased towards Tron because it's really, really big overseas, but it's not very big in America. So I don't tend to look at Tron a lot, but I know a lot of people Overseas do. So I'm interested to see how the IPO responds because it would be IPOing on the new York Stock Exchange, but the bulk of their clientele are overseas. And so even overseas people can trade the New York Stock Exchange. But again, it just, I don't know, it seems a little strange.
- [40:20]
TiVo
I just wanted to learn because again, what we do here is educate. So I feel like it's important to be like, hey, I don't, I've never heard of this reverse merger. I've never dug into anything like that. So I just, I gave it a quick, a quick rock here. Just, we can move on afterwards. But reverse merger, private company mergers with or is acquired by the publicly traded company. So the, the SRM is going to acquire Tron, and it basically acts as like a shell company. So it's like, okay, Tron's just going to move its operations underneath the umbrella of this publicly traded company. And, and it basically can be a part of that company and then kind of gets integrated into the books of that company. And so it makes, it gives the stock a new look. Right? It's a fresh look, but it's not necessarily a true IPO process where it's going to get bidded on and then put out into the open market. So once, once the merger happens, then it's just kind of live. It's, I guess the comparison is speed. It's basically a faster way. It could take months instead of years. It's a lower cost. It gives access to capital. Much simpler process with regulation. And then obviously there's some risk for probably the company like a Tron getting filed underneath. You're risking dilution and, and basically becoming that part of it is, is you're signing away some, some type of rights. But you know, you, you got to figure out what the individual contracts are for. Stuff like that. Interesting. Something we'll definitely keep tabs on. But it seems like the year of the crypto IPO is, is well underway.
- [41:42]
Brendan
That it does. And you know, speaking of different stuff that's underway, you brought this to my attention, so maybe I should hand it off to you. But the Solana ETFs might be including staking. Is that right, TiVo?
- [41:55]
TiVo
Yeah. James Safart, our friend of the program, hot on the case as always with what's coming out of the Bloomberg terminal. And I think what I've learned from the process with the Bitcoin and the Ethereum ETFs is when you see all these companies, so you see their Fidelity 21 shares you know, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, bitwise and et cetera. When you see everybody come back with an addendum for that ETF filing, like something's moving. So there's been some feedback from the SEC to these companies saying, hey, like, we're probably going to be moving forward this, you all need to update this section of your filing. And it's kind of reminiscent, at least for me, of what we saw towards the, the end of the beat Bitcoin ETF process. What right before it was approved, you basically, at first it was, you know, 21 shares file something, and then five days later, fidelity files something, and then three days later bitwise filed something. And then towards the end, it was, it was this updated. They updated their filing. They. And everybody was doing it at the same time. And they're kind of in lockstep in unison because when they go live with these, the SEC wants fairness and they want them all to go live at the same time to be fair. So you have your choices instead of letting one go live first. And then obviously that would be kind of like a monopoly factor of, of options. So I, I think it looks, it looks promising. So it was six out of the seven hopeful ETF submitted here. And then he updated his thread here and there's number seven. VanEck rounds out all seven filers. So it looks like the SEC is marching towards a Solana ETF with staking. And then you got to think, if Solana is going to be offered staking, the next big one to, to think would be Ethereum would be right behind it. Unless there's something about Ethereum that would make it harder or difficult to offer staking. And I've always said on this program that, and this was months ago, that when, especially when the Ethereum ETF went live is like, we got to get staking, you got to give them that dividend because it's just such a natural part of the traditional, the Tradfi markets. Right. People love the dividends. And it opens up to a different class of hedge fund and money manager investors. Where some of those, some of those money managers are dividend investors, there's dividend aristocrats where their whole portfolios have to have a dividend of some type to be in the portfolio. And so if you can get. And again, maybe Solana and Ethereum wouldn't qualify for most or some of those investors because it's too volatile or whatnot, but it gives it the option. And I think you're going to see a lot more people kind of give again, it's that 1 to 3% allocation to these ETFs on such a large scale that if you offer that yield, it's going to open up the doors to such a large swath of investors and money managers that are managing billions and trillions of dollars that are looking for yield. So I think it's an awesome thing. I would be super excited for it. And it's something that we'll be watching because it feels like again, I don't think it's a day one floodgate where you see this and then the next day or the next week Solana and Ethereum rocket higher per But I think it's like the Bitcoin etf. Go back and check the day that went live in the price and watch it just go higher and higher and higher.
- [45:10]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, I like what you said about if everyone is filing for something, there's something going on behind the scenes. And we've seen this before with both the Bitcoin and the Ethereum ETFs. So the fact that they are all resubmitting documents and making edits and changes and just overall like submitting stuff and there's activity there from every single etf, it is pretty telling that there is something going on in the background. And if you remember last week we talked about all these new ETF applications and how James and Eric were giving us new odds of approval ratings for the indexes, for the baskets, for a handful of other altcoins like Solana, xrp, Avax, Tron was in there, Sui Litecoin, and there's a bunch of them. And we went over the likelihood that they get approved by the end of this year and also who has submitted these? And so it looks like it's really going to become a thing again. We love to give alpha here. We like to talk about this stuff before it happens. So we talked about it last week, we're talking about it again here this week and there could be big implications for Solana for a lot of these other crypto ETFs, maybe for Ethereum staking. And these are things to keep an eye out on. So the crypto sector, it's moving well here and Coinbase is right alongside this news. They've been in the news a lot lately, some good, some bad, not all good, unfortunately here, but this is good. So Coinbase came out and they said, hey, we're going to be launching our own credit card. And this has been something that a lot of different people have been doing lately. Are These cryptocurrency credit cards. Now Coinbase is obviously one of the bigger, more well known names and what people are excited about is the fact that they can get up to 4% cash or 4% back in Bitcoin. Now key word there is up to. I've seen a lot of people misinterpret this and say I can get 4% cash back in bitcoin on everything. No, that would be crazy. That would be cool. But it's up to 4% and we need more details around this because I'm curious, like what is going to give us 4%? Is it like gas? Is it groceries, is it travel? Like I don't know, but it's interesting and I think the credit card world is a hard one to penetrate because you look at like the leaders in the space with like MasterCard and Chase and you know, even Capital One, and it's a hard space to penetrate into. However, for people who really are just crypto, Maxis and like, that is all they truly care about in life is is crypto, then this could and will be a very, very big thing, especially for these treasury companies. Like, can you imagine MicroStrategy having a card where 4% of whatever they spend or 2 or 3% of whatever they spend is getting put back into bitcoin and they're just passively earning more Bitcoin for spending on like necessary purchases? It's an interesting idea.
- [48:22]
C
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TiVo
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- [50:50]
TiVo
I like, I did some digging and it wasn't anything I found officially. It was more like some of those, you know, fintech bloggers and people that probably have some inside information. We're putting out some, some nuggets. So again, this is, this is just speculation, but like Brendan said, he nailed it. He goes up to 4%. So then what's the fine print? So basically what I heard was, well, number one, you're gonna, I believe you're gonna have to be a Coinbase One subscriber. So I think that's, I think that's $29 a month or $20 a month. So that's basically your fee to be in the program. And then I believe you get a base. And then it was based on. So you get like, let's just say you get 2 or 3% for that and then up to 4%, depending on how much assets you hold on Coinbase. So there's going to be some threshold that I didn't see a number given, but. And maybe it's 50,000, maybe it's a hundred, maybe it's a million. Who knows? But like you have to have a certain amount of assets on the platform plus that subscription. And the subscription's kind a little, it's a little high, but you'd have to do the math. It comes down to the math, right? So 20, 20 bucks or 25 bucks times 12. And then you got to do the math of whatever percentage you're getting. You know, if you spend X amount a year, is it. What's the delta there? Is it worth it? But yeah, I know Gemini has a credit card. I don't know the details on that. For, for bit. They have multiple options. It's bitcoin, a bunch of all coins. And then Robinhood has a credit card as well. They were the first kind of brokerage to launch one last year. And I actually have, I do have the Robinhood credit card, so I can give some insight into that if people are interested. But I like Robinhoods. They do have a membership fee for the Gold program, but I think that's $5 a month compared to 20, so that, that's a lot cheaper. And Robin, Robin Hood's is 3% across the board, so it's 3% on every purchase. And then they have a travel portal where you can, if you book their Travel portal, it's 5%, but their travel portal prices are, you know, there's like a, there's a 5% increase on prices for, for the travel. You can kind of tell if you're, if you're nifty and doing your travel research. So this is definitely a trend. And I think it's one of those things, like the more competition, the better, right? So I think all these cards are going to launch, some are going to sink, some are going to swim, and then you're going to have the people competing on the form. But I love the idea. Some people love points, right? They're points. I got a thousand points, aim. I have so many amex points, I never use them. And then when it's time to use them, you gotta figure out down there's all these point podcasts and point influencers. You can learn from them how to get, you know, the most out of your points. I kind of like this, like 3% cash back. And then I just constantly. It's like passive investing, right? You're getting, you're just, it's an easy way to passively invest. And then obviously, you know, if you want to do Bitcoin or, you know, with Robinhood, you could do whatever, right? You could do Apple, you could do Microsoft, Bitcoin, you could do Pengu, whatever you want. So I think this is, this market's not going away. But like you said, credit card business is a tough business. You know, you're basically, you know, you're getting basis points of alpha for being the, the credit card provider or the company behind it. Because I don't, I don't know, I didn't see if Coinbase is partnering with MasterCard or Visa, but like, you know, you got to partner probably with one of these big dogs and they're going to take the majority of the profits. So it'll be interesting to. To see how it grows.
- [54:22]
Brendan
Yeah, you know, I saw that we had a comment in the chat box from. I'm gonna have a hard time pronouncing their name, but it's RockVTM. And they were just asking us about stablecoin, saying, hey, you know, this could be something that potentially stirs up trouble. Maybe there's some issues with this. They say that, hey, you know, we're from Peru, and this stuff could be used for bad purposes. And maybe that throws a wrench in this. But he asked, what are our thoughts on this? And what I'd say is that I've actually seen this argument a lot over the years, just about the crypto market in general. And when you look at how much cryptocurrency is used for our illegal activities versus the US dollar, it's some astronomy. It's some astronomically, like, minute number in comparison to the US dollar. Like, the US dollar was used for illegal activities. Like, I think it was like hundreds of times more than whatever crypto was. And also when you look at the crypto market, I think it actually makes it worse for criminals to use it, especially stablecoins, specifically, because these are things that are fully trackable and traceable so people can see exactly where it's going. You know, who. What the wallet is. If it's being used for bad purposes, then they get blacklisted and all wallets associated with them get blacklisted. The funds can be actually seized. And. And yeah, I would say also, just beyond it being like a worse thing for people to use because there's less privacy, you know, those kind of things are unfortunately going to happen regardless. Cash is more untraceable than stablecoins. It's also more untraceable than like, just any kind of normal currency. So I think that it will not really be used for that. It almost creates more problems for the people who are trying to use it for bad purposes than less problems. And the other side of that is just that bad things are unfortunately always going to be used. It doesn't matter if it's fiat. It doesn't matter if it's crypto. It doesn't matter if people are exchanging precious metals or some sort of commodity. People will always use any form of value to do potentially illegal and bad things with it. And that's not going to stop. I think what stablecoins do with how traceable they are is it can actually almost discourage that, I think, even more than encourage it. And when we look at a lot of These stablecoins, they would be used for internal purposes. So if you're looking at J.P. morgan or bank of America or Deutsche bank or a lot of these people that are already looking into it, this isn't something that is going to be like publicly traded in my opinion. They would be using this for the most part internally. Maybe it reaches some sort of external matter. But again, would you ever try to do illegal transactions inside of your bank of America account, inside of your J.P. morgan account? I think the answer there is no, because you're setting yourself up for failure doing illegal transactions inside of like a brokerage account. And I think that this will be viewed in a very similar manner.
- [57:11]
TiVo
Great points. And I think it's new. So there's probably, you know, anything new has bugs and you know, things that might go wrong and there's going to be learning and they'll figure out how to set up these guardrails. But kind of to your point, it's more, it's more traceable over the long term. This is. Yeah, I think it's going to actually make it harder for the, for the money launderers and the cash grabbers and the gold bars under the bed for criminals type of action. And we just gotta thank you from our buddy Rock. Thank you, Rock. Shout out to Peru. Huh? Peru in the chat. That's okay, Rock. You agree? Disagree a little bit. That's fine. That's why we're here. Conversation. Healthy debate. Healthy debate. You gotta love it. Yeah, let's. Nothing, no good.
- [57:49]
Brendan
Nothing ever wrong with that. It's completely okay to disagree and partially agree and anything in between. Nonetheless, we appreciate you coming on here and asking the questions.
- [57:58]
TiVo
Yeah, 100%. Let's, let's land this. Let's land this puppy.
- [58:03]
Brendan
Yeah, let's wrap it up here. Because Fold has secured $250 million in equity to drumroll, please purchase and expand their Bitcoin treasury. We saw Michael Saylor and Strategy doing this the other day. Folds coming in, they're doing the same thing. These Treasuries are picking up hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin just all the time. And Even the Bitcoin ETFs, I saw that they had $1.8 billion in flows. And I think it was the last like six or seven trading days or something like that. I don't have the article in front of me, but it's something crazy where we're seeing like billions of dollars of inflows into the ETFs, hundreds of millions of dollars flow into the Treasuries. And this is just like weekly monthly, just quarterly, constantly happening. And there's a lot of money being bought up here and there's a lot of attention towards not only crypto, but, you know, specifically bitcoin. In this situation, a lot of people want in and I think short term the price is going to be volatile. You know, we're going to see this thing move up, we're going to see it move down. That's the nature of crypto is it's naturally pretty volatile. However, I do think that as time goes on, besides whatever kind of choppy price action that we get, that we resolve towards the upside in the long term, which makes me excited. So regardless of whatever we're feeling right now, TiVo, I do think that with everything that we talked about here, again, it's pretty hard to be pessimistic about the crypto market given all of the different news articles, all the different catalysts, everything that we've talked about. You gotta be bullish in the long term. So did I miss anything there? Thibaut, do you have any thoughts before we wrap up or.
- [59:58]
TiVo
No, this is I think a top, top five at least, if not up in the top three of like longest rundowns ever coming in at 55 minutes. We, we cover it all. Like we said at the jump, there's a lot going on and that's what we do here each week. And yeah, long term, bullish and excited hopefully to, to move past all the, all the drama in the world right now and head into the end of the year and I think we could see some the of exciting stuff.
- [60:24]
Brendan
I agree with you, man. Well, everyone that is listening in out there, we appreciate you all being in here. We do these every single week completely for free. So if you did like the episode, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button because we have a lot more content coming your way. And of course we make all sorts of different kinds of content. We make YouTube videos, we make market updates, we do podcasts, we do tutorials, we do all sorts of content over here. And we want to make sure that you're plugged in and that you're involved. And if you want to ever take the next step, you can go down to the links in the description below and check out some of our other products that are a little bit more honed in. In fact, you can get access to our entire crypto portfolio for just a dollar down there as well and be a part of Crypt Nation. So thank you all for watching. Appreciate everyone coming coming in here and we're going to see all of you at the same time, same place, next week. This is a call to the leaders who want to redefine their impact, tackle our world's greatest challenges with a powerful.
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C
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TiVo
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Brendan
There's always a trade in.
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TiVo
Not right now. @ T Mobile.
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C
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C
Let me check this pocket. Oh, mints. Really, I'm fine. Oh, I have raisins. I'm a mom. Wait, wait one sec. I've got cupcakes in the car.
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TiVo
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Brendan
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C
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Brendan
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C
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TiVo
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Brendan
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TiVo
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