← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
A
A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines. Premium fabrics considered design in everyday essentials that feel effortless to wear and they're dependable as the seasons change. Quince has everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts. Lightweight cashmere sweaters, short sleeve Mongolian cashmere polos, tees in 100 pima cotton and European jersey linen. These are the versatile pieces that make a wardrobe that actually work season to season. Quince works directly with top factories and cuts out the middleman. So you're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores, just paying for that quality clothing. And they only partner with factories that meet the rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production. Guys, you heard me talk about the winter when I was going home. How I use Quince to get an awesome winter get up their jackets and sweaters when I went home for the holidays. But I live in Florida so now it's time to start that next evolution of the year for my wardrobe. I'm checking out their shirts, I'm checking out their tees and their website is super fun to navigate with so many options. So you got to go to Quince and check it out. Right now go to quince.com crypto101 for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it and you will now available in Canada too. Don't keep settling. For clothes that don't last. Go to Quince. Q U I n c e.com/Crypto101 for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quint.comCrypto101. All right everybody. Welcome back to the Crypto rundown. Gold is crashing, Silver is crashing. But bitcoin is outperforming. What is bitcoin and crypto telling us? We are going to dive into the charts on this episode and look at it all the time. This is going to be your technical analysis breakdown for the crashing of Gold Silver. Bitcoin seems to be outperforming especially in the month of March. And just all the crypto news just I mean again the fundamentals and the bullish news just keep stacking like hyper liquid. Partnering with the S and P blackrock bringing in a quarter billion dollars into their staking ETF and much more on this episode of the Crypto Rundown. I am so pleased to be back with you guys. We missed last week due to the community summit that we were hosting but we put out a lot of great interviews for you guys with Brendan carrying the load in those interviews. And we are fortunate enough to have Brendan with us live today. Brendan, welcome back, my friend. It's been about two weeks, so super happy to have you back and. And doing our. Our show.
- [02:35]
B
Dude, I'm stoked to be back, man. It's. It's been too long. I haven't been able to appear as much. But it's like you said, I mean, we've been busy over here. There's a lot going on behind the scenes, working on a lot of things. If you're a community member, you know this. We've rolled out some really big upgrades and changes, and we're excited to do it, man. And so we're just plugged into all these different places we're juggling, but in the best way possible. And so I think today's episode is going to be a really good show of that. In fact, we had to go through, for people who don't know, we put a list together at the very, like, start of the day or end of the prior day, and we had to cut today's list short because there were so many different things going on.
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A
So.
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B
So the good news is that you all get me twice this week. You get me and TiVo together twice this week. We're going to be doing another one of these on Friday, but we had to cut part of the list off because there was just so much to talk about. TiVo. You lined us up with some really good things. Excited to dive in here? I mean, where do we even start?
- [03:33]
A
Well, let's start. Let's do a little housekeeping. Since we've been away for a week. Murphy's, Murphy's Law. Whenever we're, you know, not necessarily away, we are all both slammed with work, doing community things, which we love, but it was like, one of the busiest news flows. I was like, every day I was like, dude, we could have done three rundowns last week. So that's just the way it goes. I've been seeing a lot of chatter in the podcast side. Obviously, in the community side, people know a lot of chatter on the podcast side. Where's Bryce? We miss Bryce. So we can announce now publicly. Bryce has welcomed his second child with his beautiful wife. And Bryce has been doing some paternity leave and then focusing on, obviously, the community being in the newsletters when he can, but a little bit of paternity leave, some family time for our fearless leader, which everybody would. Would love to have. And we wish him and his family the best. I know he's having a lot of fun, but his comeback is on the horizon, coming soon in a couple weeks. And then a little, a little extra, a little extra dessert for the community here, which again, the community knows is. And we've been preaching this on the podcast, is, hey, price action's down. But fundamentally, we see a lot of bullish shoots, a lot of green shoots. And we kind of always said on the show like, hey, we're always looking for who's building in the. And that's us. We're the builders. We keep putting out more content than ever. And we have a new, a new teammate that we will be introducing soon on the podcast. If you're in the community, you already meant him. His name is Hunter. And I'm. We're going to be kind of figuring out how we want to introduce him to the podcast. He's going to be working inside the community like we always talk about. And then also we want to fold him into the podcast as well. So super, super exciting stuff. We continue to build. Even though the price action hasn't gone our way. We're bullish about the fundamentals. So I just wanted to do a little housekeeping there for the good people of crypto101. A lot to discuss. Let's just dive into it. The first thing last week was the Fed. JAY Powell FRIEND OF the SHOW the FRED the Fed held rates. People were kind of wondering, or not wondering if that was going to happen. It was almost a guarantee, 99% on the betting markets. But they were more interested in the press conference. The first Fed meeting since this war broke out, the first Fed meeting since oil started to climb higher. And kind of as expected, it was, it was down the middle. We're waiting on the data, but I don't know. There were people that said it was a dovish cut. I'm sorry, a dovish hold. I didn't see it that way. I thought the, I thought the presser was a little bit more pessimistic in regards to what's going on overseas. And so, you know, the market wasn't a huge fan of that in the continuation of this, I guess, technically war and the Strait of Hermuz being closed and the fear that these oil prices are going to creep into inflation. So again, a hold. But what did you. Did you get a chance to. I just kind of caught the quotes. I didn't get to tune into the full presser like we usually do, but that was the takeaway that I got.
- [06:17]
B
Yeah, you know, I was seeing very similar stuff. I don't think he was hawkish. I actually thought the meeting was better than expected. I think it was a little bit more dovish than expected, but not dovish in and of itself, if that makes sense. But I thought his verbiage and the way he worded things was better than I would have expected from a meeting like that. So I left it thinking, hey, this was really as expected, not a huge change. Nothing changed in terms of rates. You know, one of the interesting thing, the things, though, is that it looks like rate cuts or the odds for rate cuts are getting pushed out further and further and further. You know, a lot of people thought that we'd be getting them in spring. Then it started looking like it was getting priced out the summer. Now it looks like it's getting priced out to fall, maybe even priced into next year. And so that, that is an or was one of the things that I took away from this meeting is that we saw that the interest rate decision to, to cut rates looks like it's being pushed and pushed and pushed, which people haven't liked. And I think that we have a couple of catalysts here that are still affecting, I would say, all risk on assets, but crypto specifically. Right. And so to just briefly summarize those, you obviously have the geopolitical stuff that's going on, right? You have war. That's not. That's going to make people say, hey, I want to sit on my hands. I want to see how this all plays out. I want to be a little bit more safe. I just, you know, you just don't know what's going to happen. It causes people to be more cautionary. So you have macroeconomic factors. You also have, what's stemming from that is energy issues, rising energy prices. That's kind of a byproduct of the macroeconomic fears. So then you have energy issues and rising gas prices and energy prices and all of that. On top of that, you have the Fed, like you said, interest rate decisions being pushed out later. Maybe we're going to get less cuts than we expected this year. There's also going to be a new Federal Reserve chairman. There's just a lot going on around interest rates and inflation and you know, how this all is going to affect the overall economy. And so that has an effect on risk on assets like crypto. And then the final one here is continued, I guess, a push for the Clarity Act. And what we saw on that front is that there was news this morning talking about how stablecoins in the yield around them will work. Wasn't super well received. I saw Circle was down like, Circle stock was down like 20% today. And then obviously with everything else that's going on with war and energy prices and all these other things, well, that then becomes a priority as opposed to the Clarity Act. So people are looking at other things and saying, hey, let's get this solved first, then we can circle back to the Clarity act, which again, with that being kicked down the road, a lot of people were hoping that it would have been passed by now, and it's not. And so that's causing people in the crypto market to just be a little bit more cautious until I think a lot of these different catalysts and moving pieces and parts start to get fixed. And so that's what I, I'm looking at here. TiVo, you know, with the Fed. I, again, I do think that that's a big one, but there's a lot of different catalysts that were. We're waiting for.
- [09:27]
A
My apologies was on mute. The. Yeah, there's. There's just too much going on, which is what, at least on a macro level, which we we've been covering. But again, part of this show is deep diving specifically into the crypto side of it, which we do a lot. And, and honestly, which we've showcased is crypto has been outperforming. And, you know, there's plenty of cases to be made. The, the stats show like, hey, crypto led the way down. That's just a fact. But recently, especially in the month of March, it's been outperforming. So let's pull up the charts here. We can just kind of go through again, we're going to do a deeper dive on Friday. So if you're interested in the live, I don't have a scheduled time yet. Brendan and I are going to get that up and I'll post it in our YouTube community on Twitter, so you can see. So, but Friday we're going to do a deeper dive into the charts, but we'll do some, some high level here and then we want to, we want to get a gold and silver a look too. So let's just do, do a little rundown on the charts. You know what's wild? How many guys hit their 30s and suddenly everything feels harder than it used to. Your energy gyps. The focus isn't there anymore. And gym progress stalls. The conversation almost always turns to testosterone. So I've spent a lot of time digging into this. Not just the headlines, but actual studies, ingredients research and talking to people who've gone down the TRT road. And once you really understand what traditional TRT involves, it includes lifelong injections with needles shutting down your body's natural production, fertility concerns, and it really makes guys pause. That's why I've been paying attention to Mars Men. It's designed as a TRT alternative. Not injections, not synthetics, just a stack of well researched ingredients like Tonga Ali zinc and boron that are used to support healthy testosterone function. I've seen the science behind these ingredients and I personally know guys using it who say they love how steady their energy feels. No spikes, no crashes and no needles for For a limited time, our listeners get 50% off for life plus free shipping and three free gifts@ Mengotomars.com Mars Men is made in the USA, third party, tested and backed by a 90 day money back guarantee. Over 91% of its users report higher energy levels and the reviews speak for themselves. And again, for a limited time, our listeners get 50% off for life, free shipping and three free gifts@ Mengotomars.com that's Mengotomars.com for 50% off for life, Free shipping and three free gifts. After checkout, make sure you tell them that crypto 101 sends you craving the
- [11:50]
C
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- [13:20]
B
Yeah, I mean you had bitcoin outperforming about a week or so ago. You can see from March 9th up until around March 17th here you had about an eight day window where Bitcoin was able to appreciate about 15 to 16% to the upside. Had eight straight, seven to eight straight days of nothing but green daily candles. It was outperforming metals, it was outperforming large caps, equities is outperforming small cap equities. It was, I mean literally outperforming everything, moving upwards about 15. And this is while a lot of like stocks and stuff were actually falling during this period alongside metals. And so it wasn't up until last week that you started to see a little bit more downside from the crypto market. Again, coming off of a lot of these headlines, coming off of a lot of the news, you started to see it turnover as people were starting to get away from risk. But I think the unique thing here is that people were looking at metals and metals have historically been used as a risk off play. They've turned into a little bit more of a risk on play in the last year or so as they've started to really gain some traction. But you mentioned gold for example. You take a look at this, it's really started to suffer here over the last, you know, so many days. So if you take a look since March 9, which is what we were looking at on bitcoin, you know, metals over here have dropped over, or gold specifically, it has dropped about 21 1/2 percent. You look at silver, for example, since March 9th, similar story, it's down almost 30% here in the last two or so weeks. You can look at copper, which is another one that I like to follow. Similar story. You know, this thing has, is dropped about, you know, what, maybe over 11 or 12%. So it's being a little bit more stable and a little bit less volatile. But you look at bitcoin over these kind of same time periods, Bitcoin still green since the 9th. Even when you look at how much it's down off of its most recent high from peak to trough, it's only about 11% and you're seeing 20 to 30% on gold and silver respectively. So you have outperformance here from bitcoin, you can see similar things over with like the Nasdaq for example, this thing's been falling pretty aggressively if you measure it since the 10th. Nasdaq's fallen about 6%. The Russell representing the small caps, this thing's fallen about six and a half percent. You know, Dow Jones really trending aggressively to the downside here over the last, I would say almost a month now. You look at this thing since some of these dates, you know, it's down about six, six and a half percent as well. So it's really not like it's just isolated the crypto. Right. It's easy for us to be in the crypto market and look at this and say, oh well, you know, the crypto market's down, altcoins are down. Everything related to crypto, it's down. Why is crypto down when it's really not just crypto? I think that's the hard part about what we're going through right now is it's large cap equities, small cap equities, meaning stocks. It's metals of different varieties, whether it's gold, silver, copper, you name it, metals are all down. And on top of that, it's accompanied by, by crypto being down. Now, Crypto again has actually performed quite well here over the last, you know, I would say this month, right. If we're looking at March, crypto's actually performed pretty decently. Holding value better, not seeing as much consistent downside, having some rallies, having some sell offs, it's a little bit more mixed. Whereas everything else has been more one sided or asymmetric to the downside. So I think it's worth noting that, right. At least crypto has been gaining some traction. At least it's been getting some buyers. Sure it's going to see some selling pressure, but I think that's normal. Right. At the end of the day this is a risk on asset. In fact, it's towards the higher end of the risk on assets. So if you're seeing moves out of gold and silver and Nasdaq and the S and P and the Russell and Dow and all these other playbooks that are there may be considered risk, which I think you can throw metals into these days with how they've moved. Bitcoin typically sees more volatility, it's more risky, you have more risk, but you also have more reward with the upside and downside volatility. So even with that, again, bitcoin and crypto holding together quite well, holding its own Here, at least in recent weeks, which I think is a good sign. Now the big question here, and we'll talk maybe a little bit more about this on Friday because we just have so many other things to talk about today, which is, you know, what are we going to do here with the crypto market? And one of the big things I'm watching is the potential of a bear flag. We've seen moves down followed by rising channels. Moves move down followed by a rising channel. I moved down followed by a rising channel and then another move down, which so far this looks mighty similar to this move that we saw over in here. So I'm a little bit nervous thinking, hey, I would still say it's possible for us to get another move to the downside here. I would not write that out. It looks like it is something that is on the table as a real possibility. Doesn't mean it has to happen. But again, looking at the similarities between how this bear flag looked over in here where we move down rising channel, move down. This one looks mighty similar where you have the move down the same sort of rising channel. And I would just be aware that hey, it's very possible for us to see another move to the downside. So I'm just being a little bit cautious in case that reality becomes more likely.
- [18:45]
A
All great stuff, man. All great stuff. And it's, it's like you said, it's kind of. There's just so much information out there to break down. I know The S&P 500 started trading under its 200 day moving average. There's an old saying that nothing good happens under the 200 day moving average. And then you can see those. If you're in the technical analysis course that Brendan does, you'll learn about these moving average in depth. You know, we talked about the Golden Cross. I think that was Tower Hyper Liquid, which we'll get to next. But yeah, the, the, the looking at a possible convergence there of some moving averages. So something that you're going to want to keep an eye on from the technicals. And again, if you're interested in Brendan's trading course, as we say, it's not always open, but this is the week cohort is open. I have a link down there for everybody if they're interested in getting kind of that six week technical analysis course with Brendan, you get to interact with him live two days a week along with all the course material. So check it out if you're interested. As we transition to the rest of the show, we're going to bring up two more. And I, I, dude, I got to give our whole team credit. I've been doing this a lot. You know, we, we do it for both sides. Hey, if we say something that didn't work out, we'll, we'll let you know. But credit to the team. I mean, we've been on the Hyper Liquid train and the Tau train for a while and we've talked about it on this show. If you want to bring up Hyper Liquid and just let people know how much Hyper Liquid's not outperforming everything, we're going to talk next about Hyper Liquid. They had huge news last week and then I moved around on the sheet. Brennan, let's just do Hyper Liquid right into Tao because these are two outperformers. We've talked about them in the community for a very, very long time on newsletters, they've been calls and again, that's, you know, the type of stuff that our community gets early. Like we talk about with the first alerts with Brian and Joe inside your technical analysis course, the newsletters and everything. So if you're interested in that, check the links below. But it's also something that we've talked about on the podcast a lot recently, so you're getting huge alpha there too. So show us the outperformance for Hyper Liquid, then Tau and then we'll jump into the news.
- [20:40]
B
Yeah, Hyper Liquid crushing it. It's funny you mentioned the S and P and Nasdaq and Dow are all breaking below their 200 day moving averages for the first time since the tariff crash. Right. You see it here on SPY or the S P, you see it on Nasdaq and you see it over here on the Dow Jones. Well, you go over to Hyper Liquid and it's the opposite. This thing has broken above its 200 day moving average and it's holding above it. And it has been doing it for a couple of weeks so far here. If you're looking at it since the end of January around the 21st, hyperliquids rallied 114, 113% to the upside, making it break above that, that 200 day moving average. Now, I don't know many other assets that are up over a hundred percent in the last, you know, let's say two or so months here. It's pretty rare, it's pretty unique to say, hey, in the last two months an asset's been able to outperform, you know, let alone outperform by seeing a 100 plus percent gain to the upside. It's Huge. This thing has been seeing, as everyone will see here in just a second. It has been seeing so much positivity, so much development. I think that the Hyper Liquid team has put on a masterclass of how to run and grow a crypto blockchain based product or service or whatever you want to call it, right. In terms of a project, I think they have put on a masterclass of this is how you contribute value, this is how you get users and this is how you use blockchain tech to create killer products that crush the competition. And that's what they've done. They've gained use first and foremost. They, they basically came out and said, hey, we're going to create this killer product and service. It's going to beat out the competitors and then users will come. The more users that they're getting, the more money that it's bringing in, the more volume they get. They're using a lot of that to go towards buybacks of the token itself. The token's going up, people are seeing it outperform, that gets more headlines and they've done a great job of, of receiving what people want and acting upon that in a really fast way. I think that's one of the most frustrating things is that other projects will take months or years to push out upgrades and they're saying, oh, you want metals trading done, you want oil trading done, you want S P24.7 done, it's added. And we have a lot of news to go alongside this. But yeah, I mean because of all of this, I wanted to show the chart first here, TiVo, because there's again so many different moving pieces, so many news articles to reference here. But they've been trending up over 100% in the last two months because of a lot of the things that we're going to talk about. So yeah, interesting stuff. You know, they reached up to around 43, $44. It's the highest that they've been since around November of last year. And overall chart looking pretty good. One of the better looking charts in I would say almost any market right now, not just crypto.
- [23:36]
A
Hell yeah. And then let's pull up, or I guess let's just, we'll go right into the conversation about Hyper Liquid and then we can circle back on the Tao chart before we, after we talk about that. So let's, let's pull up the news, we'll break it down. Obviously the price action and this is, this is perfect because we've been saying on the show it's fundamentals are strong, fundamental. And this is for crypto as a whole. It's like we see these fundamentals. There's got to be some green shoots and then finally you're seeing something with real fundamentals that we've been covering on this show and in our community for months. And then now you're seeing price action follow. So just huge news. I want to tee it up for you to share.
- [24:12]
B
Yeah, so here's the first of them. The S&P 500 Dow Jones Indices, the literal standard of performance for the stock market is going to be powered by hyper liquid. So this is big. What it's basically saying here is that the, the S P Dow Jones indices are going to join here with hyper liquid and they are going to have a perpetuals contract for the S P500 that is going to run 24 7. Now why is this a big deal? Because during, I would not even during, at any point in history you could have only traded the markets during the weekdays. For, for a long time it was during the weekdays, 9:30 to 4 to 5pm and that was it. Now we have expanded beyond that. Robinhood and other platforms have started having pre market, post market, extended hours futures contracts would run 23 5. What this does is this is saying, no, no, no, no, you're going to be able to trade on a Friday night, a Saturday, a Sunday morning, doesn't matter. It's big because prior to this you could never get exposure to the markets during the weekend. And because of this, a lot of really big catalysts would purposely happen on the weekend so that they wouldn't have some crazy market reaction. And there would be no other way to get exposure to these events except through bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. So what people would do is if it was good news, they'd go and they'd buy a bitcoin and bitcoin would start ripping over the weekend. And then when the futures market for the stock market opens up on Sunday at 6pm all of a sudden it gaps up to the upside. Now what you have is if people want to go and get exposure to what's happening, they can do it through this hyper liquid contract. They can say, okay, since it's trading for 24 7, if something happens on a Saturday night, I can go and I can trade the S&P 500 and get exposure up or down through this perpetuals contract. So it's a really big deal. This is the first step in making traditional indices and equities 24, 7 and having trading available 24 7. Now, again, this is exclusive to Hyperliquid. You're not going to be able to go on to your normal brokerage, you know, your Fidelity, your Schwab, your Robinhood. You're not going to be able to go on there and trade this kind of product. It's going to be exclusive to Hyper Liquid. So they're again, they're crushing it here. They know what people want. They know how to offer what no one else can. And they're giving people not only what people have wanted for a long time, but what they want at the same time. So it's big. It's the first, I would say it's the first real example of getting a 247 stock market and a 24 7, you know, S& P kind of stock exposure. Let's go to the next one and of course chime in at any time. T. I'm going to try to just burn through these because we have so many to talk about. But here's the next one. Hyper Liquid just became the most profitable chain on the planet. In the last 24 hours, hyper liquid has generated more fees than Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin and BNB combined with just 11 employees, no venture capital or marketing or any of these other things. 11 employees and they're doing more than every, just about every other chain combined, which is a crazy thing to think about. So they're obviously seeing a astronomical level of success. If you go to the next slide here, this one just shows. So this is in regards to what they've been pretty flexible on. Hyper liquids now trading more oil, gold and silver than crypto. So with their new hip, that's essentially their latest like upgrade and proposal. Open interest surpassed $1.5 billion, which is an all time high. Again, the 247 advantage is pulling in volume. People like the fact that they know that if they're trading on Hyper liquid, they can get in and out whenever. It doesn't matter if it's a night, day, day, weekend, weekday. People like the flexibility and the liquidity that a 247 market brings. And then so they've been crushing it over here. Just real quick note before we change topics. They the ability here. They started out as just saying, hey, you can trade crypto. And we're going to add all these cool features. We're going to make it easy to use, we're going to make it seamless, we're going to make it a good friendly experience. The smart play that they've made is saying, oh, you guys want to trade other things. Well, crypto is hot. You can trade that. Metals were hot, you can trade that now. Oil is hot. It's volatile. Okay, here, come trade oil on us. They have done such a excellent job of saying, this is what's hot. We're not going to add it in a month from now, a year from now. As soon as something's hot, you can trade it on there, no matter what it is. And now it even extends to the S and P, which is huge. I mean, yeah, what a crazy chart. Looking at daily open interest.
- [29:20]
A
Yeah, it's gnarly. And then the comparison to Binance has over 8,000 employees. Hyper Liquid, that you said has 14, and one of them processes more daily volume. It really is crazy. Just the momentum that we've seen in this protocol, that momentum leads to stuff like this where Grayscale's filing with the SEC to launch a new Grayscale, a Hyper Liquid etf. So again, that's. That's the. The momentum again, the fundamentals. This has been. Build it, see it. I think the thing is, if you're gonna, you know, just see the highlights of the tweets and the sound bites that we've heard over the last two weeks, you've missed. You've missed the plot of getting the research before. You know, this is something that's been building for months. And I think that's the cool thing about our team is, you know, we've written newsletters about this and talked about. About it on the program before. So to see everything kind of follow within that. That almost breakout of if quote unquote hype and press and. And things are going to follow. And. And again, you got to be careful. You got to watch out for those hockey sticks. But, you know, this is kind of the stuff that seems to be unlocking more and more capital. And even, you know, Jamie, Crypto diamond is saying, JP Morgan says Hyper Liquid is gaining traction. So it's. It's hard to not look around and see a green shoot for Hyper Liquid to continue. But also, you got to realize, you know, there's. There's trades that go on. And, you know, this has been. This price action has been having a lot of momentum recently.
- [30:49]
B
Yeah, it has. I mean, everyone's talking about it, even JP Morgan over here giving it a little bit of credit, but they're coming for everyone's lunch, man. Again, we like them. You know, full disclosure, I have exposure to this.
- [31:02]
A
Yeah.
- [31:03]
B
But, yeah, I mean, you know, why, right? I mean, we're going over all the reasons Why I do have exposure. So yeah.
- [31:11]
A
And then another, another one that's had the hype. The press recently is Tao. So Tao I've seen in the last two weeks has been getting a ton, a ton of. I don't know if press is the right word, but it's just getting mentioned in the circles of very well respected people in tech. You have Jason from the all in podcast. I can, I'll play that one next. And then this is Jensen Wong, the CEO of Nvidia. Nvidia had a big, their big conference last week and, and somehow Tao came into the, the chat between Chamath and Jensen Wong. So let's check this out.
- [31:49]
E
Let me ask you a question about open source. So we have these closed source models. They're excellent. We have these open weight models. Many of the Chinese models are incredible. Absolutely incredible. Two days ago you may not have seen this because you were busy on stage, but there was a training run that happened in this crypto project called Bittensor Subnet 3. They managed to train a 4 billion parameter llama model, totally distributed with a bunch of people contributing excess compute. But they were able to do it statefully and manage a training run, which I thought was like a pretty crazy technical accomplishment. Yeah, because it's like random people and each person gets a little share. Our modern version of folding at home. Exactly. Yeah. So what do you think about the end state of open source? Do you see this decentralization of architecture as well and decentralization of compute to support open weights and a totally open source approach to making sure AI is broadly available to everyone. I believe we fundamentally need models as
- [32:52]
F
a first class product, proprietary product as
- [32:56]
E
well as models as open source. These two things are not A or B.
- [33:00]
F
It's A and B. There's no question about it.
- [33:03]
A
And the, so that's one, you get them talking about it. You know, obviously Chamath, you know, huge in the all in podcast and then his co host of that is Jason Calacanis. Calicanis, I believe. I don't want to, hopefully I'm not butchering that. But he's, you know, so they've been talking about it on the all in podcast, which I, I believe is one of the, if not the biggest business podcast, obviously tech focused. And Jason's, you know, throwing out, I said holy hopium. You know, 200x here. So let's tune to this.
- [33:33]
G
There's something there that could compound to, you know, a $500 billion market cap for, you know, Tao, which would be roughly, you know, if it's trading at 2 or 3 billion. Let's put it at 2.5 billion. That's a 200x from here. That's my base case is I think we could be sitting here and Tao in 5 to 10 years could go 200x now you say like well how does JCAL even come up with that number? Just historically I've seen things of value when I see on there's something there.
- [34:07]
A
I like that JCal, that's what I'm going to call him from now. And so jcal, you know, giving out a wild base case there, a lot of opium. You got to do your own research on that one. That's quite the call. And obviously they're that I'm sure they have exposure, both of them and then we're pumping some bags there. But if you want to pull up the chart real quick. Brennan, pull up Tao. It's just, it's had relative strength and obviously there's been some success in some training models. And then again if you're getting mentioned in interviews with the all in guys and and on the desk with Jensen Huang, the godfather of AI some people call, call them. You know you're going to get some price action there.
- [34:44]
D
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H
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- [36:27]
A
Fantastic.
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H
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- [36:45]
B
Yeah, I mean it's up 121% in the last 41 days. It's hitting new multi month highs as we speak here today. Today it's reaching its highest point that we've seen since November of last year. And once again, kind of like we said earlier, I mean this thing's pushing above the 200 day moving average where everything else is falling beneath its 200 day moving average. Trading, you know, around the lows T and hyper liquid here doing a bit of the opposite and pushing higher to the upside. So I think that what this shows us is that real true good products, good services, good projects that are serving their purpose well, doing good at it, gaining users, gaining attraction, they are succeeding. You know, you've seen that here with hyperliquid. You've seen it here with towel recently. You've seen it fairly recently. I would say even with sky and a handful of other projects. You saw it earlier this year with Canton and they're succeeding well. And I think that there's a bit of an extra emphasis placed on this. I mean, the charts ripping. I think now what you want to see is, you know, now that we've broken that 200 day moving average, you've broken these prior highs. I think most people would look at Tao and they would want to see this thing probably get a little bit closer to, you know, maybe back toward that like 4, $5,500 level. Because that's something that I've been watching in the past and I have my own little chart on this guy over in here. But yeah, you know, I'd love to see this, be able to retest a little bit higher towards some of the next level of prior highs, which would be 400, 454 or closer to 500 bucks. I think that's the next major Upside target. But you know, a lot of this is driven off the fundamentals alongside the technicals, following what's happening.
- [38:38]
A
I love it. I know it's something that you cover a lot in your course, watching these charts and getting your own little custom widgets there, if you will. So if you're interested in that, check out the link for Brendan's trading course. We're going to do more TA on Friday in the live. I'll give you guys the time for that. And we got, we got Columbus, Ohio, Hassan from Columbus, Ohio in the chat, many others. We really appreciate everybody listening. If you give a thumbs up if you're here, that would really help push the video. And if you're new on the bottom right, hit the logo and subscribe. We're gonna move on. We got some more news, some quick hitters and another video to play. So let's continue on with the rundown I saw. We've been talking and tracking the Ethereum Staking ETF. BlackRock's Staking ETM has pulled in its first week it did $254 million in assets under management. So that's awesome, you know, adding another 146 at top the 100 million seed capital. So I think that's going to be really interesting flows to continue to track because honestly everybody in that is, is in, in my opinion looking for that long term hold, collecting that staking dividend and also kind of seeing that Ethereum and, and Bitcoin have been on a little bit of, you know, retraction, especially in the this year. There's some long term conviction going into that fund is my guess and something we'll keep tracking for you. Another big news flow last week was the SEC and CFTC issued guidance saying hey, most crypto assets are not securities and this is huge momentum for, you know, basically getting some legislation done. So I'm going to let you hear it from the person himself, SEC Chair Paul Atkins. We have a clip here about a minute long, so let's take a listen.
- [40:20]
F
What we have done is set out all sorts of examples in this particular interpretative release and setting up a process and a framework by which people can have certainty. Their lawyers can give them an opinion, they can come in and talk to us about things if they are unclear and unlike in the past, they won't then go home after they've talked to the SEC and find a subpoena on their doorstep or something like that. So we're setting up a framework. This is just an interpretation and so courts can deviate from that, of course, if they don't like our rationale. But what we're also going to follow up with here shortly is a proposed rule that will put a lot of this into effect and be much more specific, construct a series of exemptions and equivalent of a sandbox for people to do experimentation to see if they can develop a proof of concept and then go forward with what their product might be.
- [41:20]
A
So, again, nothing has been passed, but they're creating these legal frameworks to then pass it through Congress. And this is the momentum that at least the crypto people are looking for. Right. We want, I mean, there's obviously they're different differential opinions of what exactly people want, but this is the stuff that we're looking for, communication towards Congress, towards Senate to start passing these bills. And again, this is the type of stuff that's going to help set up the Clarity Act. You see the clarity act at 67 today, it was me and you live one day a couple months ago where it went all the way down to 2020 live on air. And we said, probably, you know, again, not personal financial advice, but wouldn't be a good bet if you want to take that at 20. And here we see it at 67, not that long later because last week there was more news coming out specifically around the Clarity Acts. You can see Paul Atkins working on that type of framework. There's leaks, leaks coming out of the White House saying, hey, we're getting, you know, people on board for the Clarity act to get passed. Again. What did you see out of that? There's this no yield on stablecoin balances that kind of came out. And again, like you mentioned earlier in the show, Circle took quite a little nosedive on that because that could directly affect their business. And I think there's going to be people in the crypto industry for both. It's like, hey, this isn't what they want. It is what they want, but it's part of the process of getting this Clarity act pass. And we've always said on the show, you know, we guess we want it to get passed in theory, but, you know, these bills pass, you really got to parse through the details to see what really gets passed past. So what are you reading? The tea leaves, Brendan, with this Clarity
- [42:53]
B
act, you know, there's going to be give and take. That was another thing we mentioned, is that there's likely going to have to be give and take. Now, prior to this point, it's mainly been the bank saying, we want all the take. The crypto companies are going to be doing all the giving that started to shift, which is the good news. However, it looks like that is going to be one of the gives and takes is the way that stablecoin and yields are generated. So it doesn't surprise me too much. I know people are looking at that and it's a bit of a bummer circle coming off of a crazy good earnings call. Just, you know, what was it a few weeks ago and seeing a lot of, of of promise. I don't think all of that goes away. But again, there's going to be give and takes when, when it comes to this thing passing. I would imagine that there's going to be more headlines. You know, crypto is going to have a lot of wins that comes out of this, but there's going to be a few things, a few things where the banks are going to say, hey, well we're going to give you this but we want a few things in exchange or you know, vice versa. And that's just how it's going to be. So I think that, you know, obviously that's probably the first big headline in regards to that, but I could see a few more coming down the line here, especially as this gets closer.
- [44:08]
A
Couldn't agree more. That's where we are. It's just a information gathering exercise. Whenever you know, whether it's a leak or an interview, it's, it's kind of, you know, just kind of gathering the information as it comes. And obviously, you know, us in the space, we're going to try and digest it for everybody and educate. That's what we do. But we're not in these rooms making these conversations and making the rules. So it's hard for us to really know where this is going to land other than we know that you, at least we would guess that the administration really wants to get some legislation passed before the midterms because again, I always say this, I really think it's a funny little joke because I took one political science class in college, so call me a political expert, Brendan. But this, this, this war is not probably good for the administration long term. And when you have midterms coming up in the fall, in November, it's like, hey, you better get some positive news flow into the, in, in, into the, you know, the agenda of what you guys are trying to accomplish. Because again, not Democrat, not a Republican take, but you know, five dollar gallon of gas is not something that most people want going into the summer trying to plan their summer vacations. And, and we just, you know, we just want positive stuff, so they want to get this pass. But again, you're, you're juggling the big. We've already covered how, you know, Jamie Dimon was, you know, maybe button heads with Brian. Brian Armstrong a little bit. But, you know, everybody wants their say and we'll, we'll see where it lands. Some couple quick hitters before we wrap it up. I thought this was interesting. Polygon, Franklin Templeton and Polygon. When Franklin Templeton needed a blockchain to run the first US registered government money fund, they chose Polygon.
- [45:50]
B
Brendan this was a strange surprise for me. Polygon has seen its fair share of fudge, especially to founders and like bigger leadership figures becoming less involved in recent years. Their growth also, I think, has had a hard time keeping up. They've been one of the more harshly judged scaling solutions for Ethereum or alternative solutions, maybe we can call them that for Ethereum. Interesting. My thought process here is that. And it's, it's funny, we actually speak to the Poly, to the Franklin Templeton team, so maybe next time. TiVo.
- [46:37]
A
I was gonna say that you. We just did some episodes with, with Franklin Templeton, and I don't remember them really bringing that up, which I thought was interesting.
- [46:45]
B
They didn't. They did not bring it up, which is peculiar.
- [46:48]
A
Not be his department. I don't want to throw his. Max. Max Gockman, I believe he was more in the institutional management.
- [46:55]
B
Really?
- [46:55]
A
Yeah. Yeah. Great guy. So, yeah, I don't want to be like, hey, maybe that's not his side of the business type of thing, but definitely interested in having somebody on from Franklin Templeton to talk about that.
- [47:03]
B
Yeah, I was gonna say maybe we do. My immediate thought process here is maybe it's not like they're only choosing Polygon. I think the issue with this article is obviously it's from Polygon, so they're going to make it sound as good and exclusive as possible. Right. It's biased. It's from Polygon.
- [47:21]
F
Sure.
- [47:21]
B
My thought process is, if we talk to Franklin, Tim Franklin Templeton, is it going to be exactly the way that it's being phrased to us and pitched to us from Polygon, or is it going to be more universal in nature where Franklin's going to be like, oh, yeah, you know, we're talking and doing things with Polygon. We're doing it with Base, we're doing it with Ethereum main chain, we're doing it with Solana. That's very much like what it could be. And they are just one of the Groups that they're working with. So just because. And I think it's important to understand the wording in this. It said, hey, they needed this to be done. They chose Polygon. That doesn't mean that they couldn't have also chosen Base, the theory of Mainnet Solana. It doesn't mean that they could have not chosen everything else. It's just saying, hey, they chose this. So it's not an exclusivity. The word exclusive is not mentioned in there. And I would say we really have to pay attention to the wording of that. So that's immediately where my brain goes, maybe it's different again. I think we can reach out to their team, maybe get someone from Franklin Templeton again and talk more about this. But that does strike me as interesting. Again, we know that they love crypto Franklin Templeton crypto fans. They want to support the industry. They have ETFs. We love what they're doing. We love their team. Had a lot of great conversations with them. But we're gonna have to find out some more information on this.
- [48:42]
A
Absolutely. And something we'll track and try to get maybe some interviews around. Final thing that we. Excuse me, do have more information on is the card. We were Talking about how MasterCard had all those partners. They're rolling out. We showed the video of the mastercard crypto credit card buying pizza, and we were watching it. We spotted. We were like, that looks like a Metamask card. And there wasn't an official announcement tied to the video, but there was last week. So super cool, cool, cool looking card there. If you're a Metamask fan, for sure. And I guess this is all. All us users, including New York, can now use the base with Metamask card. So really interesting stuff. Are you excited for it, Brennan? Something you might look into?
- [49:23]
B
I am. I think the. It's hard. The credit card game is. In the whole card game, credit or debit, it is hard to compete in. I think you really have to be a crypto native to want to use this. However, there's a time and a place, right. Robinhood just came out with their. Their card. Everyone's coming out with a card these days. I think the benefit of having a card like this is that if you can have tether and USDC and other cryptocurrencies and I can go to the store, hit my card, swipe it, and pay for groceries or gas or clothes, and I. And I can pay for all of this using my cryptocurrency wallet via this Card massive. What it does is it allows people to avoid a huge process of sending their crypto from their wallet to their exchange, selling it on the exchange, then sending that money from the exchange back to their bank account. Then with that bank account money, they use their credit card or their debit card, and then they pay for it. This removes so many different processes before that, and it's saying, no, you can just pay directly with your, your wallet. And that, I think, has always been one of the primary objectives of crypto is saying, hey, you can pay for anything natively, simply, seamlessly. And that's the kind of, like, that's the kind of solution that this solves, which I think is huge. So that in and of itself is massive for a lot of people. The other thing I would say is that if you're strictly looking at a credit card, I don't know if this is going to beat a lot of the cards out there. You look at a lot of, like, if you're a decent spender, you know, you look at like the Chase cards or the American Express cards, they're probably better solutions. But if you're in that niche that I was just talking about where you have all this crypto in a wallet, I think it makes sense as having it as an option, and it certainly saves you a lot of issues.
- [51:21]
A
And I think part of, again, I don't know if this is specifically in Paul Atkins Sandbox, that he called it, but it's like, we need the full regulation of when you're, if you're using your crypto to pay, is it a taxable event? You know, what, what does this look like? Because you're gonna get, in my opinion, you might get more, a lot more people using it as, you know, if you can spend a little bit of Bitcoin or Solana or Ethereum or whatever, and it's not a true taxable income, you're gonna get more people to do that. And then, you know, yeah, you could just buy some back. You know, if you use it, you buy it back. But if it's going to be flagged as a taxable income, you're more likely not to, not to use that. Right. Because then you're just adding some expenses on top of that and just making it more confusing. So just something that I think is, again, part of what we're looking for in the clarity of everything in this industry that's all moving so fast. But any, any final thoughts on Metamask or anything before we wrap up? Brendan?
- [52:17]
B
No, you know, nothing else in regards to MetaMask, I just think that what we're seeing here is a lot of news flow and a lot of choppy price action. I think that now, more so than maybe not ever before, but for the right now, more so than in a really long time, we're seeing news and headlines affect the markets more than they have in recent history. The market itself is very emotional right now. It's very news driven. And because of that, a lot of these catalysts are pushing prices around in a really volatile, choppy way. So I would just say, you know, until everything really starts to get settled. We talked about like four or five of the main catalysts at the very start of this episode. Until those catalysts start to see solutions on the horizon, I would imagine that things stay somewhat choppy and maybe somewhat ugly until we get some of those solutions on the horizon. And once we do, I think we, we jet pack back to the upside. We saw this just the other day when, what was it yesterday, I think at the time of recording this, where President Trump came out and said, oh hey, you know, we're going to be wrapping down things. And everything went like parabolic to the upside. Oil tank, 10% S P and NASDAQ soared to the upside. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Crypto soared to the upside. It shows you whenever there is going to be an ending in sight, we know what the market wants to do. We saw a huge upwards reaction. So it's just a matter of time and waiting until we get some of those assurances. And until then again, I think we stay pretty choppy and buckle up because it's going to be bumpy.
- [54:00]
A
Yeah, great point on that tweet. It was Monday morning, you know, totally reverse the futures. I think it was like a 3% swing on the S and P just from that tweet. So again, it's very similar to things that we've seen before. But I think it's important to note I thought about putting that on the sheet and I didn't because it is part of the, of, you know, the macro environment where we are. But you can't necessarily, you can trade for that if you want, but anybody who says they know exactly when that's going to happen, there are people, I'm sure that are insider trading. Yeah, that's just how it is, you know, but you know, some average person that says they know when it's this macro driven isn't true, but there's, there's green shoots and there's places to be long term that when this does resolve. Yeah we we truly do believe we're going higher but nothing we say can be personal financial advice. We just a couple friends talking crypto but we believe and and we can find some green shoots even in all the the volatility. That's what this show is about. Education, finding opportunity and having some fun. We really appreciate everybody joining us today on our Tuesday show. We'll be back. I think we're going to push this to the community. Friday might have an extra special guest so I'll put the time out when we know in the community. Definitely something you might want to put in your calendars and join us for we'll close out the week on a high note but thank you everybody for joining us and we'll talk to you soon. Bye bye everybody.
- [55:32]
I
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