← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
Brendan
Foreign. Welcome back everyone to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Round two. That's right. This is the second one that we have done this week. We told all of you that this is going to happen on our first episode, but it was just such an action packed week that one was not going to be enough to cover everything that we needed to. We know that there were all sorts of catalysts on the way, a bunch of news events that we had to talk about and we talked about the markets in general before it all happened and now it's time to talk about it after all these catalysts have happened. And let me tell you, a lot has changed since we made the first crypto rundown Wednesday morning. Now we're recording this around Friday at noon and man, have things really started to heat up and escalate. However, the crypto markets continue to outperform. So we're going to break down everything that's happened this week, everything that has happened thus far and then talk about kind of our stance and our viewpoint going into the future and how all of this news, all of this FUD that we've seen, all this macroeconomic uncertainty, how it actually translates over to the crypto market. So welcome back everyone. It's good to have you here. And as, as always, I am joined by Mr. Tebow.
- [01:30]
Tebow
Volatile day. Just like we said, we put out our first episode on Wednesday. We said we're going to give you two this week because we knew that the events happening were going to bring us some wild volatility. And that is exactly what happened. And I think we're going to break it down, we're going to try and keep it obviously mostly crypto market related, but sadly there's just so many forces at the macro level that we just, we just have to touch on it. But we're not going to deep dive. We'll just give you the basics it and then dive into kind of the markets and how it reacted. We had President Trump announcing the Liberation Day in the Rose Garden, which was reciprocal tariffs. And then he brought out this chart. And Bren and I were joking. As soon as the chart came out, the markets started to tank. And so what we don't want to do here is dive into the politics around which countries got which tariffs and what percentages. That's not what we want to do here today. We just want to, from a higher level say, hey, this tariff thing that happened at The Rose Garden was a huge market moving event. And if you want to learn more on specifically what the tariffs were and for each country, you know, you can go watch your news and kind of research down your own from a high level. This is what happened and we're going to show you the reaction of it. So once this, once this chart went out, basically it reversed the momentum of the day. The markets had a lot of momentum going into the press conference at the end of the day. And then the chart comes out and it absolutely tanks and it tanks overnight. And there was a 3% gap for the S and P. So there was a 3% gap open down, which is the seventh largest in 40 years. So today was a very rare day and Brendan's going to show you that on the charts in a second. But those giant lines you can see on this chart, we're talking about things that were comparable to the COVID shock of 2020, the euro crisis of 2011 and the great financial crisis of 2008. So this is something that I guess at this point the history books will showcase. This week, I think alone I just saw this stat run across my TV that the NASDAQ is having its worst week since January 2022. So you know, this is a market moving event and the reason was strictly because of the announcement of these tariffs. But we're going to show you right now, Brendan, if you're ready, we'll let you go and share the screen. Show us what happened in the markets and then specifically tie it back into crypto and Bitcoin and compare and contrast the two. Have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't Dared tried? With Plus500 futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. 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- [06:41]
Brendan
Yeah, so this is what the Tradfi markets look like. We're going to take a look at NASDAQ and QQQ first and then we're going to take a look at the S&P503 through spy and Man. Yeah, this Is it? They are gapping down since that call on Wednesday. This is where we were doing our, our first crypto market rundown. And then we have just been free falling ever since then. So we, you know, this has been going on for a little bit longer now. What we can see is that from kind of top to bottom over here, over the course of, you know, Maybe the last 47 days, about a month and a half, Nasdaq's down over 20%. Now beneath all of its major moving like the 20, the 50 and the 200, bringing us back to the lowest point that we have seen since that Japanese carry trade crash that happened back in August of last year. Now spy, very similar story also in a free fall over the course of this week since that kind of Wednesday one that we had, it's down about 9%. And off the highs over here over the last month and a half, it's down about 16%. And so we are seeing especially this week, just a free fall across the markets. And Nasdaq specific or, you know, both of these indices. If we look at on the week spies down over 7% on the weekly candle and Nasdaq's down about almost 8% on its weekly candle. Now let's go ahead and correlate this back to the crypto markets and I guess we could throw in like the Dow Jones is down about 6%. The Russell's down almost 11% on the week with, with kind of the micro sector or the small caps of, of the trading markets getting, you know, equally as hit. But if we go and we look at the crypto markets, bitcoin's green on the week. TiVo and we talked about this on our Wednesday call. We've been saying, hey, bitcoin has been outperforming most other mainstream assets. Now is it perfect? Is it skyrocketing? No. But on a week where you see, and it is rare to see, you know, NASDAQ down 8%, SPY down 7%, the Russell down 11% and then have bitcoin be green on that same week, it is crushing it. I would say that this is crushing it in terms of performance. And the fact that it's green at all at a time like this is really, really telling of what the market thinks about bitcoin. And then the other thing that I would say is that, you know, if we are overperforming during a time that I think the word crash here is a safe one to use for the tradfi markets, not necessarily for crypt, but during a crash that's happening in the Tradfi markets. Bitcoin is holding value again. We said it's green on the week. Let's look at what it's been doing here since the weekend. It has found a really, really nice base, around 80k, 81k and it is not broken down. This despite everything else that was happening. In fact, on Wednesday, up until this point, we actually saw bitcoin trying to break out. It was going up here, going for a higher high, breaking the 20 day moving average, breaking the 200 day moving average, breaking the 50 day moving average, breaking out of this falling level of resistance all the way down. And it was trying to peek its head through over here. It wasn't until all this FUD started coming back into the markets that we saw bitcoin actually get a little bit of a rejection. So it's found a nice base over here around 80, 81K. I'm not saying that it's impossible for us to go lower, but Bitcoin is outperforming the Tradfi markets. It's holding its support. It's not gapping down to lower prices. And that's a really, really good, reassuring thing to see for all crypto holders because people are looking at this now. And while the, you know, the crypto markets have seen an increased correlation to the, to the Tradfi markets in, in recent months, now what we're starting to see is a little bit of a shift away from that. People are looking at all these tariffs and saying this really doesn't affect bitcoin. No matter what kind of tariffs happen. Maybe there is a little bit of, of, of. Of exposure risk. Right, because they're both considered risk on assets. So maybe there's a little bit of, of risk there. But people are looking at bitcoin as a whole and saying, you know, other than that it's really not affected by these tariffs, it's not affected by trade wars. This is a decentralized asset that is not subject to any of these things. So why should it see the same kind of downside? In fact, if anything, Bitcoin's probably going to be looked at as a safe haven at a time like this, which is why I think it's holding value so well, not only on the day, but on the week. So it's a good thing to see. I believe we talked about this last week, we've talked about it again this week and we have some other really cool data points that we want to show people kind of going forward here. The last thing I'll say to you, but before I pass it back to you is watch the price action of bitcoin over here. We are seeing a squeeze on the chart. We've been seeing these lower highs like we talked about. Now we're starting to see a little bit of higher lows. So as we see the lower highs converging onto the higher lows, the price action range is going to get tighter and tighter and tighter. This is going to create a squeeze effect and we're going to see a breakout or a breakdown probably with increased volatility here in the coming weeks. So another thing to keep an eye on and then the last thing I'll say is just I think that when we do end this, you compared it to Covid. I think Covid is a great analogy because what that was was a really sharp market crash that was followed by a historic recovery event and then a just historic opportunity to make money in general off of that dip. And I see a similar kind of opportunity coming out of something like this, especially for bitcoin in the crypto markets. Because again, when we are overperforming in what I would call a trad buy crash, I think that when we start to recover, we have just as much upside potential, if not, you know, significantly more upside potential. So if we're holding value during a crash, I think that as everything starts to recover, bitcoin just has a bunch of opportunity to the upside. And that's kind of the way that I think about this over here.
- [12:57]
Tebow
Yeah, no great breakdown. And I didn't even have these on the sheet, but I'm going to throw, throw these up here. We can discuss them. So I thought this was really interesting yesterday during the craziness, like you just said, we saw bitcoin hold up well with the price action. But how about the ibit, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF with $65 million of inflows and again, you know, testament to BlackRock in the vehicle. But you know, people that are buying that they believe in bitcoin or it might even be a testament to how BlackRock is educating their base about bitcoin. I thought, I thought that was really interesting. Another one here is. Let's see. Share this tab instead. Our friend Michael Sailor. Bitcoin is the most volatile because it is the most useful. That that's. So I'm my. My old boss, Dave, Dave Portnoy had a question to the bitcoin community. Like, if bitcoin is a safe haven, why is it going down when the market crashes? Why won't it decouple, which we always talk about. And then you know, Michael Saylor gives him the spiel about being the most liquid 247 asset on Earth. And then obviously all the comments are saying the volatility is a feature, not a bug. And then I guess since, since we're on the, the X train here, it's a little down in our sheet, but we'll throw up our last one, which is return six since election day. Our friends at Bitwise had this up. I mean it speaks for itself, right? Bitcoin gold. And then compare that to after yesterday's price movements. You know, pick your stock basically. But bitcoin is, is outperforming. And so I think it's just important after days of volatility like we promised we'd show up and give you a, give you kind of a breakdown of what's going on. You know, that's it. Brendan, any, any thoughts of the, the curveball there on the blackrock ETF or Michael Saylor making sure he's still preaching the book of Coin?
- [14:52]
Brendan
Yeah, no, I mean again we, we talked about this. We showed this on our Wednesday episode and we said, hey, look at the Blackrock, look at all the ETFs. We are coming off a period of 10 days of net inflows. And we showed how, hey, eventually we got one day of outflows. But you know, a half or a quarter or a fraction of one of those net inflow days covers all of the outflows that we had and more. And you know, when we look at this again, it just continues to show the strength of bitcoin. The inflows aren't stopping. They're trending up and to the right. And this is at a time where people are pretty fearful and maybe not spending money on risk. Assets. Risk on assets. And yet bitcoin is still seeing a lot of inflows. So I view it as a green flag going forward. And again I think that that matches my idea that bitcoin is going to see even more. I think inflows are going to shift in the high gear as the tradfi risk on markets start to recover.
- [15:52]
Tebow
Yeah, again it's what makes a market. Imagine if bitcoin, I'm not predicting this, but if bitcoin decouples from the downtrend to the uptrend and starts acting like gold during a trying time like this when basically the only thing this is such a self inflicted like wound in a sense of, for the capital market specifically. It's like all this is just jawboning talk. And then, you know, the tariff press conference, the press conference is just talking. So that kind of leads me into to the next point of all. This is really just kind of talking in a show. So, so what's next? You might be sitting there being like, guys, the volatility is, is crazy on all aspects over the last couple weeks or months. Like, so what, what's next? Well, basically, here's the summary of what happened yesterday on a different level is we, we had the announcement in the Rose Garden and it's this stern talk. And then I call them lieutenants, right? So your Howard Lucknow, Howard Lutnicks, your Scott Besants, your Peter Navarro's, they all, after the, after the press conference, they all go on the nightly news and make the rounds on the nightly news, the morning news, and, and they're like, this is not a negotiation. This is not a negotiation. You know, this is a national emergency. And then, and then Trump, and then Trump says, I am open to negotiations on tariffs if we get phenomenal offers. So there's, there's a lot of mixed signals going on, which I think is another reason why you're seeing maybe, you know, the stock market continue, continue to crash, really, because there's just no, there's no visibility. Like, we had the jobs numbers today. It was a great jobs number. But that's looking back in the rearview mirror, along with inflation in the data coming in, right? That's the past. Everybody's trying to look out the window. And you know, it's a, it's a foggy window. Everybody knows when you get in their car and you got a foggy window, you got to defrost it, right? You got to wait. And I feel like that, that might be a silly example, but I feel that's kind of what I'm feeling right now in the sense of like, what moves do I want to make, where do I want to go? And you imagine, you know, this is me with my, my own, you know, my own decisions and my own account. Imagine being a CEO of a multi billion dollar company. Like, if you don't know where the puck's going, you can't play hockey. So that's, that's kind of how I feel where it's just going to be kind of a wait and see. And again, we don't love talking about this stuff, but I think, I think it is good to mention just in the sense of, you know, that that's kind of where we sit now. And then you're going to get all this stuff coming out of, you know, all the countries we do business with, they're going to start to, you know, start to, I guess, respond. We had one this morning, we woke up and China responded with a 34% tariff on goods. And again, we're not a political show. We're not going to break down what that means to me. It was just a meme, right? It's the. I don't know if you know this one, Brendan, from this show, but it's the, it's the drive through scene where he orders everything on the menu. And that, that's, that's one that I can hear in my head. So I thought that was a funny one. But just a lot of uncertainty and a lot of parsing through the news. We do our best to bring it to you every week. Even though if it's stuff, you know, maybe outside of the crypto markets that we don't love talking about every week, but we're just trying to give you the full picture, you know, it's a shorter episode today. That's why we, we came back on a Friday for you guys. Just to keep you informed again, whether it's YouTube or Spot, you know, drop comments, ask questions. That's what we're here for. But we will leave you on a, on a fun note, Brendan, I'm going to pass this one off to you because you seemed excited about this one. This is under the, under the camp of bitcoin is for everyone because. And now bitcoin is for, for people of Fortnite as well.
- [19:31]
Brendan
Yeah, I, I thought this was so funny. I was scrolling through Twitter today and we're going to put it on the screen, but it says Fortnite has now added a bitcoin mine on the new map. So you can go into this place and you can mine bitcoin. When you like hit it with your little axe or, or your tool or whatever, little bitcoins pop up on your screen. So it's kind of a funny little nod. Again, we always like to end these kind of things on like a more, you know, happy go. Lucky note. But yeah, you know, there it is. It's all a nod for bitcoin. Again, they didn't put the exact bitcoin logo in there, but, you know, we all know what it is, right? It is a near identical thing and there's a little bitcoins flying around and yeah, a little funny thing. You know, Fortnite's one of the largest video games on the planet. So, you know, I don't play it myself, but again, I know how, how popular it is.
- [20:18]
Tebow
I was just about to ask you dropping in. I forget how that. Yeah, that's what it's called, right? Drop in.
- [20:24]
Brendan
Yeah. No, I don't think we're dropping. Or it's like where are we dropping? I think is the phrase. Or like are we dropping in? But again, yeah, maybe I will. Maybe I'll have to download it. Maybe I'll have to get on just to represent the bitcoin movement. But still pretty entertaining nonetheless.
- [20:39]
Tebow
Yeah, man, there's always, there's always something fun in the, the bitcoin and crypto community. But I guess, I guess that's it for now. Shorter episode. Just wanted to touch in on Friday. I'll do the wrap up Brendan, since it's a Friday show. It's, it's not our normal vibe. So I'll wrap us up. But thank you all for listening. Like subscribe on on YouTube Guys, if you don't mind giving us a review on Apple podcast Spotify. It really helps us out and continue to bring you all the free shows and the great guests. Hope you enjoyed the episode and we'll see you next.