← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Inflation/CPI Report Review...Fed Rate Cuts Coming: How to Prepare For Stock & Crypto Volatility
00:53:43
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Foreign.
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Welcome back to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And of course we bring it to you completely for free in under an hour and we hope all of you are ready. We are chugging through September. The crypto market is making a big old push to the upside here. Trying to have a bit of a breakout and it's September 11, 2025. We're glad to have all of you here. And of course I could not do this with my good old buddy and co host, Mr. Tebow.
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A
Yes, Mr. Brennan. So excited to be here. It's, it's an exciting time for the markets as always. We just try to put out as much content as possible and then in a world me and you kind of talked about a pre show, it's not something we're going to dive into, just a producer's note of, you know, we try to stay current and stay on the news. There's a lot going on out there. But we just want everybody to know that you come here for crypto news specifically, whether it's macro environment or crypto specific, that's what we stick to. So even though there's so much news flow out there, we're going to stick to what we know and what we love to do and we appreciate that. Everybody joins us weekly and we have some new people. Ryan was here as always. Ryan was ready to go like 10 minutes before. Newcomer here, Brendan. I don't want to ruin his first name, it's a little different but I'm going to go for the last name. Roulette. Roulette said he joined us from Spotify. Spotify brought him. So man, welcome. You are in the right place. He said he's new to this world and trying to be educated. So again, if you're on the audio, we appreciate that. Always listen as much as you can on the audio. But if you do want to check out the YouTube, if you scroll down in our description, you scroll down there, you see all our links for X, for YouTube, all that stuff. All in all we're basically try to consider ourselves a fun little media network. So you know, no matter how you want to consume us, we appreciate it and we're trying to keep everybody up to date with what's going on. We got another action packed episode but if you are new here, bottom right, like subscribe the video, it helps us grow and keep giving you this free, awesome content. So Brendan, I know it's basically, it's game time. I mean, I know like we love how we got the jobs data. We dove into that. We have some inflation to talk about. The inflation report came out today. We're going to cover that at the end of the episode. And then again, just tons and tons of nonstop crypto news gearing us up into the Fed rate cut next week. So what do you see and what are you feeling? Let's, let's break it all down.
- [02:42]
B
Yeah, I mean we're having a nice day and a nice move across really all of crypto here. So I mean if you look at bitcoin, bitcoin had a strong day yesterday, ended up about 2.2% today it's green, another almost half a percent. We have Ethereum moving back to the upside, over 4400. Green 2% on the day. Lana hitting its highest point since January of this year as it pushes above $227. It's a nice, really good thing to see. I think we mentioned this earlier in the week, but we have seen Solana kind of outperforming a lot of its altcoin counterparts. So that's interesting. We're continuing to see that and then a handful of other altcoins again, just kind of continuing to do well. The market generally green across the board. So we're kicking things off, I mean, pretty solid here. And so let's just move into a screen share. Let's look at the charts, see what's going on. I know people tend to care about price action the most, but we want to mention a lot of the catalysts that are going alongside this as well. So I mean, here's that chart for bitcoin. We talked about this big trend line that it's had an area that was its previous all time highs turned into support in here. We fell through this level, rejected it a couple of times and now we're starting to push back up because what we were seeing is like the early signs of a pivot where instead of seeing like lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, we started seeing a shift in that short term trend where we were breaking to steady levels of highs up in here. Right. The same level of highs instead of lower highs. And then we are seeing climbing levels of support instead of lower lows. So we started to see a little bit of a shift happening in here and that's One of the things that we've been talking about over here as a team internally and with this, I mean we're getting what looks to be like a full blown pivot so far and we're breaking above that 20 day moving average. And we're retesting the 50 day moving average. And I think after we crack here, I don't see much stopping bitcoin from going back towards, you know, that level above 120k, right? The all time high level around 123, 124. I don't see a lot stopping it if it can break here. So if we can get a break out of here, very little in my opinion stopping bitcoin from going back to at least 120, 220, 324, then you're going to have a little bit more resistance. But what we're looking at now is again a break in downward structure. The shift happening back to the upside. We're breaking through the 20 and last time we rejected around this 50. So I don't want to like say that this level is insignificant. It's not. This is like the last real level before. I think we can push back to all time highs. But we know that we've had trouble around the 50 day moving. Last time we kind of saw the break below the rejection of this and then the continuation downwards. So now I'm looking at this and saying, okay, you know, this is very clearly a key level of resistance at the moment. This used to be an area of support. You know, we kind of saw that for the most part. You know, few little breaks below here and there. But we kind of have come to this level and bounce and seeing buying opportunities until recently. So I want to see this area conquered. I want to see bitcoin back above 115k and after that I think it's, you know, a pretty clear shot to move higher. So it's the number one thing that I'm watching out for over here. It's a really nice break of resistance so far we're getting it back above that key trend in resistance around 1001200 13K. And that's the big thing to watch out for moving forward.
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- [09:06]
B
With that. We're seeing bitcoin dominance. You know, stay pretty, pretty bearish, Stay towards the downside. Bitcoin dominance has been falling. We'll talk about this a little bit later on. You know, altcoin season has been heating up. We're seeing altcoins start to outperform bitcoin. And the bitcoin dominant chart is just showing, hey, you know, that's a continuation here. And you see it on the day where bitcoin's up a quarter of a percent and Ethereum and Solana are up well over 1%. So, you know, they're doing four or five times the move that bitcoin's doing to the upside, at least on this morning. Now, if we actually go and we look at these charts and we look at Ethereum and we look at Solana, you know, Solana looks slightly different than bitcoin, slightly better, where instead of forming kind of lower lows and lower highs like bitcoin was doing, Solana just pulled back and then just barcoded for the last like two weeks. STEVE O. And so we could see since like the end of August, it's just been up, down, up, down, up, down, like every single day. And yesterday was a little bit scary because we came back up here and had a big rejection, but it's all getting bought back up and the buyers are coming in quite aggressively on, on, on Ethereum. And so we have this barcode, barcode formation. And, you know, when I look at this, one of the big things that I notice is like, again, we held the 50. We held higher highs this entire time. We're not seeing lower lows. And so there is still a little bit more strength in Ethereum now despite it still not kind of breaking the trend to the upside. Like, we're starting to see bitcoin. Do you know, Ethereum is still showing some strength. So it's a very tight range in between like 4,250 and around 4,500, about A$250 worth of the sideways range. And I think as soon as we break either that 20 or 50 day moving average and close above those two levels right here and here. I think that's kind of the signal of like, hey, we're probably going to see continuation in one way or to the other. Now a break at the upside would lead us to all time highs, all time high resistance around 4, 800, just above that area. I think that's next stop and then probably above 5k after that. To the downside, if we do kind of get this move and for whatever reason we break down, there's going to be a little bit of support around 4, 100. I think the big support is going to come in around 3,800. And that's where we're going to see some big buying levels. Should we get down there? The last one I just wanted to bring up real briefly is Solana again outperforming a lot of the other altcoins over the last couple of weeks. I mean, you can see while everything was going on bitcoin, right, lower highs, lower lows. On Ethereum, it was seeing just a move down and then sideways. Solana is the opposite of kind of both of those. There was really no move down, limited pullbacks. Every pullback was a higher low and it's been pushing to higher prices. So this is the highest price that it's been in, you know, almost nine months. And you can't say the same thing for Ethereum and bitcoin. Now there is a bit of a game of catch up here, I think. And I think that's what we're seeing on the Solana chart because Bitcoin hit new all time highs, like multiple new all time highs. Ethereum tapped its all time highs and while Solana did make a new all time high in January, it's been lagging ever since then. And it's still pretty far away from its all time highs. As we zoom out, its all time high is around 295 bucks. The highest close that it ever had was around 260 bucks.
- [12:37]
A
Oh, that's on ad man. What a call. What a call for the crypto 101 pod. Just another epic marking of if you listen to this show, like, you know, it doesn't have to be religiously, but if you follow this show and we're putting out multiple episodes a week, we were giving out so much alpha. Sometimes it's funny in the sense of like the crypto bagel and it kind of worked out because the crypto bagel was epic. But I never, I remember that Solana ad and me and you were talking, I was like, dude, throw that on the chart. Like, that feels like a bottom. That was so bad. Look at that thing. And then we have this.
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B
The Solana ad, the crypto bagel, the.
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A
Bryce, Bryce's, Bryce's epic, epic tweet. The Bryce epic bottom for a thing. There's another reason I did want to bring the Solana ad. Made me laugh and I, I cut you off. Sorry. But like, I wanted to give us kudos because if you've been listening to this show for a month, one month, we've said this multiple times. Brendan, I believe, you know, I was kind of the first one to do it, but I know you kind of agreed with me. And then other people start doing this. Take the Solana Ethereum narratives. Ethereum was the bell of the ball. It's the girl you want to take to the dance this week. It used to be Solana. It's going to come back. That narrative is going to transition. And so again, all these things take time to work out. But if you've been listening to this show, again, it's not personal financial advice. You know, we didn't tell you to go do this or go do that. But like the alpha, the what we're, what we're saying, between the salon ad, Bryce's tweets, the crypto bagel, and then this narrative thing where we're trying to guide you and give you kind of, again, a world zoomed out view of, of how these markets work and structure. Like, dude, we've been spot on and I know that's kind of patting ourselves on the, a little bit, but it's not one individual, it's not me, it's not just you. It's the testament to the team and the channel and, and all the research that you guys do and all the analysts and the team, again, it's a team effort. But man, this network has been spot on for, for well over a year plus, you know, two years, three years since the bottom. Like, I get hyped up and I, and I think again, it's proud because just like you make good trades and you teach us the technicals and you know, we have the team that puts out all the newsletters and all that stuff. It's like I take pride in trying to produce a good show that's going to bring value to the listeners. And so, yeah, maybe I am on my high horse a little bit recently, but dude, we've been spot on with narratives and guests. So if you're listening to this, subscribe, if you're watching it Bottom right corner, hit the logo, subscribe the video, and then if you're listening on Apple podcast, turn the notifications on because we're going to end this episode kind of teeing up this macro view of rate cuts and where we think this market's going to. And if you're missing episodes of the Crypto one on one pod, you're missing pure alpha right now. We are on fire.
- [15:21]
B
I mean, we are. And we're having fun doing it, too. We're having fun doing it, and it's cool to see all of crypto rally and, you know, we make all these little nicknames, like, there's the Solana bottom and the Crypto bagel and this and that, and we go back to these. But, you know, as we do move back to, like, all these different ones, you know, we look out, we have a fun time. And the big thing that we're trying to push is like, you know, crypto has a bright future. We still think that there's the potential for more upside. And for Solana, I think it's pretty clear we broke out of this key level. It's been outperforming against most of the rest of the crypto market. I think the next logical stop is at least around 260 bucks. You know, roughly around that area. We've seen ourselves come to this area once and reject it. Big rejection, Come up here again, reject it over in here, come up here a third time. We did pierce through it, but we did not close above it. And so that's been the big, like, telling sign for me is like, we are unable to close above it here. We were unable to close above it here. We were unable to close above it here. 260 bucks is the big level for Solana moving forward. And as much as I've said this, I think we just gravitate back up there. I don't think it's going to be, you know, maybe it is a straight shot. That'd be awesome, right? If we just kind of shoot up there. But I think it will be kind of a gradual move. You know, we're going to go up and then we're going to come down, and then we're going to go up further and then we're going to chop around and I just see us gravitating towards 260 bucks. That is the big resistance level that saw that Solana has to approach yet. So maybe we kind of see this classic break, hook and go that I like to talk about, where we turn resistance into support. I think That's a real possibility. So maybe that causes a 10:15 retracement. But I think Solana looks good in the macro. Ethereum looks good in the macro. Bitcoin looks good in the macro. I think all three of these, I think they truly can see new all time highs before the end of this year. And that's not that bold of a statement, especially when you look at like Ethereum, for example, and new all time highs 13 away, you look at Bitcoin and Bitcoin's only 9% away. Again, I'm not saying that this is all going to happen tomorrow or this week, but we got a lot of time left. We're in one of the worst months, if not actually the worst month of the year historically for bitcoin and crypto. And I think we come out of this into a fairly decent time in the market. So we'll have to see. You know, we got a lot on, on the record to talk about here today, but yeah, I mean, that's my thoughts to you though.
- [17:51]
A
Yeah, I think it's kind of, I know the seasonals traditionally are weak in September, but we're still in that phase of if you're looking at the whole year with what happened in April and just again, like we've covered on this show, so April again is kind of that tariff drop, liberation Day drop. Plus, you know, what we've had on this show nonstop, which is, you know, pro regulation, just specifically to the crypto space. So you had a macro black swan, but specifically to our, you know, our space. It's been nothing but good news. And then it kind of, you can make this case, which we've talked about on the show before, is it's the most hated rally and that could go for stocks and crypto is depending on the decisions that you made in late April, whether they were financial, whether you were got scared, whether you. Or you could have bought the dip maybe and you could have went all in, you know, but there's a lot of people that sold and maybe rightfully so, especially if you didn't have, you know, the right education and the right team and the right community around you like we have here. If you were kind of on your own, maybe you sold. And then there's a ton of professionals that, that sold and went short because they thought the world was ending. And that has proven, proven at this point to be wrong. And so if you're that wrong and the market rips in your face and you're just saying, well, it's going to come Back in, it's, you know, the world's ending, it's going to come back in and it continues to just launch to new all time highs. Whether you're Talking about the NASDAQ, the Dow, the S&P 500 Bitcoin, Ethereum like it does, you know, so, so it really take your pick of the asset gold, everything's moved to all time highs. And if you're sitting on the sideline in cash, you know, clipping 3% or 4% on a Treasury or 2 year treasury or something like it's a hated rally because, because in your mind you're like, no, the world, the world was ending. It was the end of business and globalization as we know it. Like the stock market's supposed to go down another 25% from when I sold and then I was going to buy back. So there's a lot, a lot of angry people out there I think at this rally which could give it a solid floor which is kind of that theory behind, you know, why the seasonalities aren't going to be that negative and you know, teeing everything up like the later in the show with the rate cuts and is there going to be an end of year chase? There's a lot of momentum probably to the upside which I think is kind of, you know, we're kind of permeables admittedly. But you know, we're just trying to do the research and, and try to, you know, get on the right side of what we think could happen. But when it comes to where we're moving on with, with all coins, which again we've had, we've talked about this on the show non stop. When is all coin season? There's numbers of different indicators. This thing this morning and yesterday has been flying around. Tom. It's the altcoin indicator. You can find it on, you know this has turned it into a graph but you can find it on coin market cap and a lot of other indicators. And we're kind of hitting that, hitting, hitting that line there at 76 where kind of we rocketed up towards the end of the year last year post election. So Brendan, are you excited that this has gotten back up there and what, what kind of, what is your feeling when you see the charts like this? Obviously one indicator of many that we want to look at. But does this get you excited for that piercing?
- [21:04]
B
Yeah, it does and I think you're right. You know, there's a couple of things that we look at. We like to look at this, we like to look at bitcoin dominance. We like to look at ebtc, we like to look at the total two, the others chart like there's a bunch of different things that we like to look at to kind of say okay, where are we at? And so far the altcoin season, while it has been really good, I think people have felt it a little bit more in the large market cap altcoins. You saw Tron, bnb, xrp, Solana and Ethereum all hit new all time highs. What you haven't seen is a lot of the mid to low caps hit all time highs. Yet there have been exceptions, right? You have Hyper Liquid done exceptional, you've had Syrup done exceptional, you've had Euler also just be exceptional pump recently, just doing great. And there's been some other big runs here and there, but it's been a bit more selective. So there's two things that come to my mind. Number one, we've talked about a lot of and that's the altcoin space has grown to such a point, you know, I think almost 2 million different cryptocurrencies or something or no, 20 million, I'll check real fast. Either way, there's just millions and millions of different altcoins that have been created and I think that there's too many out there now for every single one to succeed and for every single one to just be able to, to blow up. So as I'm checking this, you know there's over 21 million different cryptos listed on coin market cap now, you know, well, more than that that have been created. And so I think the market is too big to where everything has to go up when all when crypto should be doing well. The second thing is that, you know, I think once the more that we get in the altcoin season, the more we tend to see those mid to small caps do better. And the runs always start off with bitcoin. First we saw that from 2022 to 2025. Now we're starting to see a shift into Ethereum and Solana and again some of those other large caps. It tends to trickle down like an inverse pyramid where you go from the largest ones first and then you kind of funnel down into the smaller ones. And I think that's kind of the stage that we could be entering into here. Again, I personally believe the space has too many cryptos for every single one to do. Well, I think you are going to have to be a bit more selective with it, but we still will be able to see, you know, generally speaking I think some altcoins can do well here year and we've seen some nice rallies over the course of like the start of this year. I know especially in the last two or so months, we've seen some really good rallies. I think that that can kind of continue. And we, we normally see these kind of mid caps rally in October, November, December. So if there's any, if any time's a golden period, it should be these last three months.
- [23:43]
A
Yeah, it certainly, it certainly feels like that. And then I can share this one. We're on coin market cap now. Again they have theirs at 66 and again the, the yearly high over here was, was 87. So obviously we're not quite there yet. But interestingly enough, you know, just riding up over the bitcoin price, we can move over to the Fear Greed index. I mean dude, like we, we brought this up a couple weeks ago and just when you see this around neutral and like we just, we just tipped into fear. You can see on the chart here on the right, right here, we just nibbled into, into fear territory. And then you can see that again, I'm sorry for blocking it but like just that price action, not following that fear index, I, I thought was really interesting. Cause you can kind of see over here again, you know this was that April, March, Liberation Day. And so you just, you saw it again. It was kind of a leading indicator at first, but just the price went down to match that movement. And just I feel like this movement here since, you know what August down to here in this fear Greed index, the price hasn't moved. Which again it could, it totally could follow that. Right? Kind of that breaking is going to break down or break up. But kind of what you just said is man, we're really looking at again, I know September seasonals aren't great, but we're looking at the rest of the year with a lot of macro factors. And it's just the, the Runway, the Runway looks set up for, for, for some good price action into the end of the year. And you kind of continue that with what you're seeing on the supply side. I know you threw this in for us to talk about this week was that ETH supply continues to get lower and in shorts are extremely high. As this post says, you know what happens next. But you've been tracking this, so what are you seeing?
- [25:33]
B
Yeah, I mean exactly. When you look at ETH supply, we talk about this with a lot of different cryptos, but especially BTC and ETH when the ETH supply is falling when anything supply is falling, it tends to get more rare. And what happens here is we're seeing a giant surge in demand for Ethereum, especially from Bit Mine, right? Bit Mine and Sharplink have been gobbling this stuff up alongside the ETFs, accumulating it and it's leaving exchanges en masse. So what's happening is a sudden and gigantic, not even a sudden. It's been a pretty continuous surge in demand and a shrinking supply. So what this means is, you know, if we are going back to the most basic laws of economics, supply and demand. Well, if supply is shrinking and demand is increasing, that asset has to become, it has to increase in price, right? It has to become more valuable because it's not only in more demand, but it's also becoming more rare. So it's this double whammy effect. And I think a lot of the times we are used to one or the other, oh, demand is shrinking, all of a sudden things become more expensive. Oh, you know, demand is increasing and supply is decreasing. And you have either one of those happening at a given point in time and that always causes price appreciation. What we have with Ethereum is both happening at the same time. So I think that the, that the price is being squeezed at the highs. I think that there is a supply shock coming. I don't think that all of it has been priced in yet. I think you'd be silly to say, hey, we have seen the supply of Ethereum get completely white in recent years, but we should still be priced at the same point that we were four years ago. And that's not accounting for everything that's been built, everything that's happened, the supply shock. And after all of that, all of the progress and all of those different factors, we're still at the same price that we were a couple of years ago in terms of the highs. Right? Because we've hit this before. So I think now you can say that not all of that is factored in because if it was, we should definitely be at a higher price than we were back in like 2021, 2022. So that's what it tells me is that again, it's really hard to have this happen. And we saw what happened with bitcoin, what happened to bitcoin. It's been on a multi year tear. People said, oh, it's going to have a blow off top and this and that and like so far it hasn't. And we saw bitcoin supply start shrinking a couple of years ago on exchanges and it's been shrinking ever since then. Over the same period, Bitcoin has continued to hit new all time high after new all time high after new all time high. And sure it has these pullbacks of 30%, it has these periods of moving sideways for six months, but it always exits out of those with the new all time high. My personal opinion is that Ethereum can start behaving in a very similar to manner that we've seen bitcoin doing in recent years where it can start hitting continuous new all time highs. Sure it's going to have these more volatile pullbacks and stuff, it's going to have extended periods of consolidation, but I think it resumes to the upside here. And so that's where we start getting some of these other big factors is saying, well what if we start looking at tokenization? What if that starts getting used more? What if defi becomes more prominent and that starts getting more adoption? What if stablecoins start getting used in the way that everyone's talking about them and everyone's trying to use them from banks, financial institutions, governments, businesses, you know, retail, you name it. Well then you start having all these other external factors. And I think that's where a lot of people are getting this idea of a 10k Etherium, a 15k Etherium and stuff like that. And I have to be honest, you know, I think we're, I'm not sure we're going to see a 10K Ethereum by the end of this year. I think it'd be awesome. I think it's a little bit of a reach. I hope I'm proven wrong. But listen, I think Ethereum can hit new all time highs. I'd still say like a realistic upside possibility for eth here is still well above 5k. I think it could hit 6 or 7k. I want to count that out. And it does feel like the coil is just, you know, winding up at this time.
- [29:38]
A
Yeah, the flywheel's in good shape here. So this wasn't on the sheet but just to you know, bit mine still buying. This is just this morning, you know, Bit mine again buys 204 million of ETH this morning disclosure from Cathie Woods Ark buying 1 million shares of Bit Mine. So 9, you know, Ark now owns over 9.1 million. That's $440 million on the ETH treasury company. So like basically just building off what Brendan was saying is supplies low. We have the treasury companies, we have the Ethereum ETFs are live. And just this flywheel of bit mines buying ETH People are buying bit mine. It's, it's more and more ammo for this thing to just keep going. And, and your thought, Brennan, of comparing where it was, you know, years ago to its all time high versus the narrative now, it, it just kind of a little bit of, of a makes sense equation right in your head. But you got to remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. And so you just gotta, you gotta be careful of, you know, you may have so much conviction that things are going higher, but you gotta be careful, you gotta be smart. You gotta plan your trades and trade your plan and you don't wanna get into a position where you over leverage yourself because you think something's a no brainer and it doesn't happen. And so, you know, I think you can have these thoughts and you can have the vision of what's going to happen and you could be a hundred percent right, but it's not going to happen on the timeline that you think. And I think, you know, it was a great lesson, we've talked about it before was the Bitcoin ETFs. When those came out, we still had volatility to the downside. After we got everything we wanted and we thought it was a no brainer up only. Well, if you zoom out, it was. But in, in the timeline that I'll hand up, I thought, in the timeline that I thought I was like, oh, I'm hammering this, it's gonna go now. We're gonna do some options, let's use leverage. And then it just, it came back and bit me in the butt a little bit. In the sense that, you know, I made this thing and this in my head. It was this timeline that was going to go quicker than I thought. So it, it'll come, it'll come in time. If, if, if you're right, you just want to make sure that you position yourself and be safe and do it the right way and not overextend yourself. But at the end of the day, Ethereum, Solana, all this stuff, they're all friends, right? That's how we feel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are friends. That's what, that's what our friend Tom is saying here. And I think we kind of agree with that in the sense of, you know, all the tides, all tides will lift all boats or the tide rising will lift all boats. Whatever that's saying is, and kind of to your point is just the momentum continues for the use of Ethereum. So we're seeing that fidelity is tokenizing US Treasuries on Ethereum. Kind of like what you said, we march on with the use. Anything specifically that you saw for this one or just a general use case, another use case for Ethereum from a big player?
- [32:28]
B
Yeah, we've seen other groups do this, right. Most notably we've seen blackrock and a couple of other big asset managers and Fidelity is next in line. And listen, I think that this will be the norm for these asset managers moving forward. I think we're going to see any mainstream semi large asset manager having tokenized funds of one kind of or another on Ethereum and maybe even Solana. Those are where almost all of them are. In fact, I don't think that there's any outside of those. Maybe there are. If they are, they're probably pretty small. But we have seen some pretty notable players on Ethereum and then even if you want Solana. So I think that this is essentially solidifying this idea that, you know, ETH is becoming the standard here. You have BlackRock and you have Fidelity, which I believe are the two largest asset managers in the world. I think fidelity is over 5 trillion in assets under management. I know BlackRock's over 10 trillion in assets over or assets under management. But you have like the two biggest whales in the space saying we are doing this and they kind of set the pace for everyone else. So is every other asset manager just going to say, well, you know, if people want these things and if people like that stuff, oh, you got to leave us and you got to go to them. They're going to say, no, you know, we're going to try to do this in a little bit of a different way and we're going to try to have similar and competitive products to the biggest names in the space. So I think that this is just going to become the norm and we're going to have these tradfi entities launch these different kinds of tokenized Treasuries and tokenized funds and all these different things on chain. And that's the direction that I see us moving. So it's cool. You know, it really is cool. We kind of saw Blockrock and a couple others. I think Vaneck was. I believe Vaneck was another one. But yeah, I like this. I'm all for it and hopefully a lot more to come.
- [34:27]
A
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B
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C
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B
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- [35:43]
A
Well, that's the way it looks when I share this one from our friends over at Milk Milk Road. The the overall crypto market cap has more than doubled since 2024. Just 21 months, it's gone up nearly 140%. So again, momentum like this doesn't fade easily. That's kind of our point of bringing you all these news stories with Fidelity or BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. It's like they're all saying that they're coming on chain and building products on chain and using Ethereum or using Solana and then kind of just the overall crypto market cap is skyrocketing right now. And that could be just from, you know, people going and buying, you know, Solana, Ethereum, Bitcoin on chain. But also that's what they were saying is like these treasury companies, this whole flywheel funnel, it's all moving money to crypto just in different ways. And so kind of, you know, why is that happening? You know, obviously there's people that want, you know, gains and they're trying to make money and all that stuff. But again, it's the regulation, it's the regulation around the space that's allowing this. And again, that's kind of, to Brendan's point, and I agree with him, is you're looking back a year, two years or the last bull run and we're, you know, some of these projects aren't at their all time highs, but yet they're still as relevant as ever. With, with the regulation, it's like it's just that concoction that gets you bowled up. So the type of stuff that gets us bowled up just as much as price action is regulation. And so this was the SEC chair commenting and saying that it is crypto's time and it has come.
- [37:10]
D
And today, ladies and gentlemen, we must admit that crypto's time has come. For too long, the SEC has weaponized its investigatory subpoena and enforcement authorities to subvert the crypto industry. That approach was not only ineffective, but injurious. It drove jobs, innovation and capital overseas. American entrepreneurs bore the brunt and have been forced to spend fortunes on building a legal defense instead of a business. Today, ladies and gentlemen, we must.
- [37:48]
A
And with that just the regulation around crypto, the stock market and crypto just kind of jointly together marches on. Coinshares is going public. Again, not something, not, I guess, a major company that maybe the average retail investor would, would think of, but it's a huge crypto ETP. I mean it's right up there behind BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale. It's the number one in Europe. It has 34 market share. So the fact that this is going public is huge. And I actually saw this news from James and I were actually, you know, trying for our listeners. I reached out to try to get somebody from coin shares on the show. I did get a response, so I'm working on it to bring that interview with Bryce and Brendan to you guys. But you know that that's what we want, right? We want more people that have huge market share that have been in the space to, to kind of get involved and if, if it's time for them to go public and get the investing that they think is, is good for them to grow, I think it's good for the space if they're doing it the right way, which clearly the SEC is laying out the framework and the Runway for stuff like this to happen. And then again, moving on from more research from our friend James, is this Brandon? I mean I've seen this over the timeline the last week or two. I'm surprised we haven't put on the rundown sheet yet. But like there's over 90 crypto ETF waiting for the SEC's approval. And I know we've talked about it on the show before of you know, what's going to get passed, what's not with the odds and percentages. But again, over the last two minute rant here that I've Done with teeing up that, that clip from the SEC chair saying crypto's time has come. And then also you see this where there's 90, count them. You can't even zoom in on that. Nine 90 crypto ETFs waiting. I, I mean again it might not be the time frame and the timeline that you think, it might take longer but ah man, God, this is bullish.
- [39:39]
B
Someone give James an award. Has he not gotten like a Nobel Prize in some form or some sort of like medal of honor for keeping up with all of this? But yeah, you know, no, we'll have.
- [39:50]
A
To have him back on. We'll create some award and get a trophy mailed to him and then he can have like an acceptance speech on the air. That'd be good.
- [39:59]
B
James needs like one of those edits like we've all seen those like kind of funny, kind of cringy, like super stereotypical like TikTok Instagram edits of like people of their favorite celebrity. That's what James needs. James needs like one of these because him and Eric have done such a, an incredible and ridiculous job of keeping up with all of this and a lot of people think oh, all they do is keep up with crypto. No, you know they're Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, they manage everything in the ETF space and that's just 90 from the crypto side. And so it's a lot to manage and deal with and there are source and our go to on this but you know, what does this say? This says that there is so much institutional demand for crypto and look at all of these. I see, I mean Solana, Dogecoin, xrp, Cardano, hbar. I see what else? Polka Dot. I see different kinds of Ethereum ones for different Ethereum options. I mean there's a say one in there and the list goes on. I mean Avax, there's so many different ones. And so retail wants this, institutional is trying to push it. They clearly want some exposure to this and the doors are opening up, you know, the floodgates are opening and more people are going to have crypto or access to crypto than ever before. Started with just wallets, peer to peer exchanges, Trad5 brokerages, banks, asset managers, you name it. You know, everyone is going to be able to give their clients access to crypto moving forward and that just seems like it's the direction that we're heading and these ETFs are just going to make that more possible.
- [41:45]
A
Yeah, and there's some rex Osprey crypto ETFs that seem to have passed the 75 day review window and could be trading as early as this Friday. So something that we'll keep an eye on. Again, we've always said that usually these kind of go live in tandem. Is this a group ETF or is this the individuals? This tweak didn't really.
- [42:05]
D
I.
- [42:06]
A
No, go ahead.
- [42:06]
B
Rex Osprey. They tend to have ETFs but not necessarily spot ETFs.
- [42:14]
A
Right.
- [42:14]
B
So that's something that's happened in the past is that we could get ETFs passed, but they might not be spot ETFs. Generally speaking, we want spot ETFs because if people go and they buy the spot ETF, then those asset managers are going and buying that exact amount of the underlying asset with, you know, other kinds of ETFs. They don't have to do that. They just have to simulate the price action and, you know, move it around so you just get exposure to the underlying price action. But it's not actually causing any buying or selling on chain and you know, it's not generally speaking as good or helpful. So I would also believe that that's the case here because they say, they don't say the word spot in there and that's something I've been extra careful about, especially with this group. And it's nothing like bad against them, right? It's not like, oh, they're bad, it's their fault. No, it's not like that. Different groups do different things. But generally speaking, you know, Rex Osprey, especially recently, they've done different kinds of ETFs outside of spot ones. And I believe that's the case with these as well. Because if you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin already has a spot ETF trading. So they're probably trying to do something a little bit different. And I was looking into this on Monday because I had someone internally on our side reach out to me and say, hey, you know, I saw that there's a Solana ETF out there and I looked into it for him and I said, hey, this is a Solana etf but it's not a Solana spot etf. And it's important to kind of clarify how those work.
- [43:52]
A
Dude, that's why we're here. The education, I threw it on there at the end. I was like, I haven't been hearing enough noise around this. So my guess is Brendan's going to throw us some knowledge on that, as you did. But overall, just again, that Sec Clip, I think kind of has been ringing in my head since I saw it as, dude, the, the regulations coming and we've talked about those ETFs, how they're all backlog that 90 list from, from James, and it's just like, whoa, when are these gonna get through? Come on, we want them, we want them. And you know, I'm not gonna say that everyone's gonna get through, but they're, they're holding it up and they're figuring out the regulation around it is my guess, especially with that clip that we just watched. And these things are going to start to get passed. And then again, depending on which project or coin or whatever is like gets that, you know, flywheel treasury strategy with the ETF flows. And I think that'll be interesting to track because like we've said, a lot of these huge institutions, they want access to these markets, but they can't go dive into Coinbase or Gemini or Kraken. So to be able to kind of see and, and see the flows and see what ETFs get bought up with different disclosures and stuff will be really, really interesting to track. And so I know me and you are super excited for that, but let's set the table for next week. So we talked about it earlier in the week this jobs data came in. It was absolutely basically astounding. The, the corrections they were making to the jobs data to the point where, you know, the summary was like, we haven't added a job in the US Economy for like a year or something. It was crazy. And then basically kind of teeing up that this thought process of the dual mandate for the Fed, you know, what's, you know, the, the, the mandate of, you know, low inflation and full employment and the employment's falling out of bed. Inflation seems basically steady at this point, even though the worry was that tariffs would pass through and inflation would be rampant. We're just not seeing that. And so I have a clip here from Blackrock's Rick Reeder. Now, Rick Reeder is just really a, a great voice in the space. I know he dabbles in the bond market a lot more, but he's great at just obviously being a head blackrock. He knows the markets very well and he's a respected voice, somebody that I really enjoy listening to. So this is a little bit of a longer clip. It's like a minute 45, but I think we play it through because he touches on everything from hard assets to Bitcoin to rate cuts, and then we can kind of dive into what happened today with the releasing of the cpi. We had the PPI last week, the jobs numbers and we're set the table for the Fed. So let's listen to blackrock's Rick Reeder.
- [46:25]
D
And I think hard assets have to enter the equation today. Gold, Bitcoin. What kind of percentage are you thinking about? Is it a 5%? What do you think the ideal portfolio is supposed to look like today? We're surrounded by investors, we're surrounded quite literally by financial advisors who are thinking about that, retail investors who are watching. I mean, what does it look like today? Very different than the past. So maybe I'll start with some of the equity market. I mean, the first thing I would say we're going through the most extraordinary technology dynamic I've ever seen before. I would stay long equities, by the way. You can buy volume, you can buy volatility very cheaply to manage your exposure and stay long equities oriented to where growth and technology is. In fixed income. Income is amazing. You're still clipping 6%. Would I stay five years and in on the curve? I'd still clip that coupon. We're extending a little bit out and then quite frankly, I mean there's some interesting things to do in privates, bespoke markets. And I think hard assets have to enter the equation today. Gold, bitcoin, things that give you a little bit of ballast in the portfolio against potential for currency depreciation. When you talk about bitcoin should be part of the portfolio, what kind of percentage are you thinking about? Is it a 5%? Which generally seems to be what people are talking about, more or less. It seems high to me. The so I run our global allocation fund. You know, we're running long equities, you know, we're heavy income, you know, we're running, you know, in the 3 to 5% region on gold. Gold strikes me today as a better currency hedge. Bitcoin tends to trade with volume, tends to trade with the nasdaq. So we're running considerably lower than that in, in crypto. I just think it's going to go up and I think it's a good expression. But five seems high to me. But it depends where you are in your life and how much risk you want to take. And I think hard assets.
- [48:20]
A
Rick Blackrock's Rick Reader it's gonna go up. Mr. Up only over there. Again, I love trying to give our listeners a full view. Again, that guy's not a crypto specific guy. He manages that world fund that he was talking about a blackrock which added Bitcoin into that fund, but overall kind of setting the table that, that he, he went on that two minute rant based on the ask for rate cuts and he said that and he is in the conversation for an interview with Treasurer Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. He's, I don't know if he, he wouldn't talk about it, but he was invited to interview along with a lot of other characters. And so kind of when he gave his opinion on the rate cuts coming up, he said it's like we need to lower rates, we need to cut rates. And he goes, depending on the data that comes out this week, I could make the case for a 50, you know, 50 bips cut. And so again, it's just another person, this person is, is very, very well respected in, in this investing space who's calling for, for rate cuts based on the data. And the data that came out today is one of those things that just continues to call for rate cuts. So Brendan, if you wanted to show us the data or anything that you have around it, I know you pulled the numbers. So what, what are we seeing to set the table for next week?
- [49:38]
B
Yeah, I mean I was looking at the numbers for CPI and that came out as expected. You know, CPI rose or, sorry, CPI came in as expected and in line at 2.9% which is right along expectations. Core CPI came in at 3.1% in line with the 3.1% expectations. So again, it was rising a little bit. Yes, but it's still in line with expectation and, and it's not anything that's overly aggressive beyond expectations. And so when we look at rate cuts, again it's saying, hey, the labor market seems to be the big focus point for the Fed and that means that rate cuts are the likely scenario. We should be getting more of them, we should be getting a larger size in terms of the rate cuts that we do get. So I'm looking at both of those factors as really positive things for the crypto market. Here again, the data continues to show that not only is the crypto market bullish, which is what we've talked about, the fundamentals, the technicals, even on the tradfi side of data, like everything is pointing towards being excited about the crypto markets. If you like the on chain data, that looks fantastic. If you like the price action and TA as a trader, that looks really, really good and that looks optimistic. If you like news and catalysts and adoption, clearly that looks good from everything that we talk about, you know, multiple times a week. And again, if you are looking at what's happening with bonds and inflation and the Fed and this and that, that stuff's even in favor of the crypto market. So it's a really hard scenario here to try to put together some bearish case for bitcoin and crypto moving into the remainder of this year. I think it's going to be extremely hard to create this bearish case scenario and apart from us getting some unexpected black swan like event, I just don't see it falling apart. I just, I do, I don't. I think that any dips that we do get, and again, never financial or investment advice. We're not your financial or investment advisor. But I have a really hard time seeing the crypto market be bearish and I have a hard time seeing how anyone could even be pessimistic about it. So listen, I think the dips that we get are rather shallow and short lived. That's kind of been my stance. We're coming out of a big consolidation phase and we've been rallying to the upside. I think, listen, we're going through the worst month that is normally in the crypto markets and so far it's been pretty mild. August and September, both pretty mild so far. And so I think that we come out of this just on a war path back to the upside and you know, we'll see, we'll see.
- [52:23]
A
Yeah, I think next week we'll really set the tone to see how the market takes it. I actually got, I think the jobs number. As scary as it was to be like, oh man, wow, the economy is actually maybe in worse shape than we thought. I did some thinking, I actually heard this take and I digested it and was like, wow, it's really interesting. You could, you could spin zone it, you could actually spin zone this jobs data update and be really bullish on the economy because we did have growth with much less jobs than we thought. So with, with GDP actual actually growing with a lot less jobs, that means we're being efficient. So whether it's the capex investment story from AI or maybe there's more productivity coming again, you'd really have to go and do the research, try and find out exactly what that is. But there's an interesting case to be made when everybody throws up their hands like, oh my God, we don't have as many jobs, the economy's falling apart, it's, we're unhealthy, we're unhealthy. It's like, well, you know There's a case to be made of how are we even reading all these economic numbers and how are they coming in so wrong. But if, if, if the growth of the GDP is still intact and in line while we had much less jobs, we're actually being a much, much more efficient economy. And if you're saying that we're in this business cycle and there's tons of people, I don't think anybody's really arguing for a middle cycle. There's, there's this debate going on, are we late cycle or are we early cycle? And the late cycle people are like, oh, it's like, obviously we had the dip a couple years ago and now we've been rocketing and Nvidia had a blow off top oracle's up 40, bitcoin's at a hundred thousand. Late cycle behavior, late cycle behavior, we're going to roll over. And then there's people saying, oh well, maybe not, maybe we're an early cycle and this is just an investment. You know, this is the second, third inning of this AI story of investment in Capex. And as this Capex keeps growing, these companies are going to get more efficient. And you know, again that, that, that's kind of that uncharted territory for the worker of where we end up in this AI story. And nobody can really forecast that. But if, if you're on that side of the ball of an early cycle, this whole like a million whatever jobs just poof, disappeared. It never existed. But we're actually humming on, on a, you know, an economy's humming on this basis and still strong. I, I, dude, I think that's a check for the early cycle debaters in that topic. So I wanted to throw that at you and just say, what'd you think? It's a hot take, but interesting.
- [54:54]
B
I think it makes sense. You know, I've talked to some, to some different buddies and people and I think me and you briefly even talked about it. But I don't think that it's some horrible situation for crypto. I think crypto comes out of this in a win win. You know, again, if we were strictly trad 5 people, this is what we said on, on Tuesday, if we were strictly tried by people, we would maybe be a little bit more nervous and frustrated. But the thing about crypto here is that we benefit, we benefit from like a lot of the different scenarios that can play out. And yeah, you know, regardless of what kind of data that we get, I think you're right. Like we have to look at this as a Pretty or not pretty, a potentially positive catalyst. Because you're right, you know, if we have growth in GDP and all these other things, then again there could be a game of catch up there to stimulate even more upside. And I think that crypto is just one of the biggest beneficiaries of this.
- [55:48]
A
Yeah. Hey man, that's why we're here. And that's what we're going to keep doing. So, you know, as we wind down this episode, I have a couple favors to ask Again, Please give this video a like it just takes a moment. Click the button, click the thumbs up if you're not subscribed. Bottom right, you'll see our picture. Hit the subscribe button, turn on notifications. That helps us keep doing these shows and keep doing them for free. And again, if you want more, hit the description below. We have some, you know, promos for our community. The $1 trial, Brendan's trading course is open. And then also there's the free book. So if you're interested in reading the book, please check that out. That's all I got. My one last thing is we Rob, Rob from Kenosha, Wisconsin, thanking us. Ryan's in the chat. Neil is saying always be prepared to be expected for the unexpected. Of course, Neil. We appreciate everybody here. My final ask, take this show, send it to a friend or two and say check these guys out. They're really informative. We would really appreciate that. And then for the rest of the week, I have Brian on tomorrow. We're going to do a full Meme coin rundown tomorrow. That's gonna be super fun. We are going to be live at 1pm EST on Friday. Check that out. And then that podcast episode will drop Saturday morning. And then next week I'll post on YouTube and give you guys the schedule. I want to try and do something. I got to pitch it to the the bosses, Brennan, but I want to maybe do like something around a live show for the Fed, see if we can get that pass through. If not, we're definitely going to be doing a rundown next Thursday to cover it all. So really, really exciting week. But if you're free tomorrow at 1 on Friday, 1pm let's do have some fun with the Meme coin rundown with Brian.
- [57:22]
B
Certainly. Well, like Tebow said, everyone, we really appreciate you coming in here being with us throughout the entire live stream. If you can't make it live and you're watching this back at a later point, we appreciate you as well. So thank you for watching. Thank you for tuning in and we'll see all you tomorrow at 1:00pm Eastern Time with Brian. Take care.
- [57:54]
C
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