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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Iran War Crypto Panic to Opportunity: The Iran War Bitcoin Bottom & Why Retail Will Flood Back
00:43:18
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign, Everybody, welcome Back to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And we, as the United States are at war with Iran. How is the war in Iran going to affect crypto? How is the war in Iran going to affect bitcoin? Normally when wars and giant political things break like this across the world, all the markets start to dump fear. People want cash, people want bonds, they want treasuries. It's sell, sell, sell, sell, not the case. And we're going to break all that down for you today on this episode. I have my friend Brian with me. We have a whole plethora of things to go through, but the number one topic we're going to break down is how crypto and how bitcoin are being affected currently by the war in Iran. And we're going to go over the macro markets as well, because at this point in time we feel like there's a lot of clues on that are correlated around the S&P 500, the bond market, the equal weight S and P. We've got a ton of things to talk about and some deep diving that Brian did around how Iran, the country, deals with bitcoin and maybe how that could affect the price or at least some fun facts that you need to know for all your research to make your own decisions. This is the Crypto 101 podcast and I welcome in Brian. Brian, welcome to the show, my friend. Thank you for doing it with me. How are you doing on this Tuesday?
- [01:23]
Brian
What an intro, man. I mean, I know you're fired up. Teva jumped on today right before the rundown and was like, I'm feeling pretty fired up today. And we went on to go probably five, 10 minutes, you and me talking about everything happening in the market. And we were like, man, we need to save this for the rundown because we're pretty much 10 minutes into the show without even getting going. You can see there's a lot. Excitement's maybe not the best term, but there's a, there's a lot going on right now, a lot of things to be paying attention to and it's going to affect a lot of macro news, a lot of crypto prices, and we're here for it, to break it down.
- [01:59]
TiVo
Yeah, there's a lot going on. And again, it's not something that is, like you said, it's not exciting, but it's just, there's just breaking news left and right over the weekend. Unless you're living under Iraq, you're aware that the The US has, has opened attacks and airstrikes along with Israel into the country of Iran. We don't necessarily have any takes on why, what, where, and the reasons behind it. We just have to react to what's going on in the markets. That's what this show is about. And interestingly enough, I guess we can start out, we're going to mix. Usually we always pull up coin market cap when Brian's on. So interestingly enough, I think we'll start with that. But it all, it all bleeds together here. So I'm going to bring up the bitcoin chart here. We have the one week and the. I guess it was early Saturday morning, over the night, Friday night, the, the, the operation, if you will, started and then the bitcoin did a bottom tick in, in the middle of the night at like 2:15am Eastern on the 28th, Saturday morning, you know, you're kind of sitting there. I remember, I remember kind of like waking up being like, oh, my God, I got all these notifications. I'm like, here we go again. Like, this is the flush. Like, literally, I didn't, I did not take any action personally. And again, nothing we say here is personal financial advice for anybody. It's educational in nature. But like, I kind of remember waking up Saturday morning early getting all these notifications. I'm like, ah, here we go again. This is the flush. It's going to break 60. It's like we're going to World War 3. But I was like, let's monitor the situation. And it had a nice bounce off the bottom there. And then once we got to like mid afternoon, it was announced that Ayatollah, the leader of Iran, I guess they got the main guy that the US Government was trying to get. And the market as a whole kind of took that as maybe a little bit of alleviation. Like, okay, this operation is going good, it's going quick, at least what they want to do. And bitcoin started kind of rallying back Saturday into Saturday evening. And again, I think it's always fun to look at bitcoin in the crypto market. Specifically when these operations, which usually do happen over the weekend, they try to kind of keep it when the news wires are a little more quiet than normal. So the operation happens over the weekend and bitcoin's the only thing that trades again, remember, the stock market's closed. So it was interesting to watch that rally Saturday night and then into Sunday. I mean, we even, I think we kissed. Did we kiss? 70. I know we were 69, we got 69k. Nice. And then we might have even kissed 70. And now we're retracing a little bit into the 66 to right now trading at 68. But on the one week, you see this, let's summary here. Brian Frank handed off to you one week, Bitcoin's up 6% during what summer Calling like, hey, could this turn into World War iii? I mean we're going to talk about it a little bit but this is us, Iran, Iran's not some, you know, again they're not a global powerhouse but they're not, they're not a not for nothing country. They have, they have weapons, they have, you know, some push back. They have the backing from Russia and China which is something that could, you know, piss China off. Like you're going to talk about but just your, your overall take. What did you learn from the weekend about the bitcoin price action? How do you feel about it?
- [05:07]
Brian
I, I, whenever I heard that, the news of the attacks and Iran, I thought we were going to flush to the 50s. You know, I'm just so conditioned to any sort of news. We get bullish news and it feels like we've gone down. And then when we get, you know, next World War III type headlines, I thought we were getting flush a lot harder. So I, I was personally surprised to see that we kind of kept in this range that we've been talking about for weeks right now. I think you and Brendan have, I know I've been kind of screaming like, feels like there's a range between like 60 and 72. Sure, we can kind of get out of those ranges but that definitely feels like the chop zone for some time. And you know, we touched all the way to 70 after a lot of these big headlines were hitting. So I was surprised by that. I don't think we're out of the woods yet. I think there's gonna be a lot more volatility in the markets. I know, you know, you wake up today pretty much the only thing last time I checked you at the price of bitcoin up and on my screen I had the price of oil up. So I was just curious what oil was trading at. And it's up almost 8, 9% right now. Obviously the straight of Hormuz was closed. That's you know, cause you know, the price of oil to kind of continue to go up more likely and a lot of other asset classes are going to probably bleed out. The stock market last time I checked was down. Gold was down. So you Know, it's, it's something that I think we've been kind of waiting for. You know, we've been talking about like these strikes on Iran and poly market for weeks and months now. And it's, I was kind of just waiting for it to happen. I'm, I'm no war expert. I don't want to get into the geopolitical reasons why, but Iran has some ties to China, they have some ties to Russia. And what I was saying to you before we even jumped on, I go, China's probably pretty ticked right now about how all this happened and what's going on. You know, I could, I could build a thesis around where they could sell some, you know, U.S. treasuries and buy asset classes like gold and, you know, something along those lines because they've been doing that for a while now and I, I, I, I think they're a little ticked off on what's going on. But overall, I was surprised that we held this range. I, I think we're going to kind of move sideways in the chop zone for some time. But it, it's, it's, I don't want to say it's nice. What is, what's the word I'm looking for here? TiVo. It, it's, it's good intel to know that like, all right, these strikes have happened. It, it sounds like it's gonna be a little bit more, it's not gonna be a weekend war. We've seen a few of those with like Venezuela. It sounds like the United States is saying that this is gonna go on for a little bit longer. So we, we're gonna see some volatility in my eyes, but that doesn't make me shy away from what's going on in the crypto market. I do not Financial advice. I do really like bitcoin kind of in this range to dollar cost averaging personally, this is personally what I'm doing. We could certainly flush down lower, obviously we always talk about that. But I don't hate it in this range for some time to get some catalysts to move forward. But I think we're going to have plenty of opportunity to dollar cost average in. I don't think we're seeing any God candles till a hundred anytime soon.
- [08:21]
TiVo
I totally agree. And Brendan and I have talked about on the pod of building some of our longer positions, having some fun, maybe looking out with some leaps and then buying spots. So it's like, it's a time to. I think we've kind of covered it well through this drawdown through this quote, unquote, bare market that we've experienced in 20, the end of 25 into 26. You know, the opportunity is there to kind of recalibrate and, and understand where you want to be and what, what assets you want to accumulate. But in the short term window, there's just a lot of interesting kind of notes and, and I, I've been covering on this show of, of the software stocks, right? So bitcoin got caught up into the software. If you listen to this show, I don't want to beat a dead horse because you understand that. But the most interesting thing for me, the newest updates, is how if I pull up the IGV, which again, is that software ETF the last five days, up 4%. I just showed you the last week for Bitcoin, up 6%. So what is this telling me? TiVo software? What is it telling you? It's telling me that there's, again, if there's a global outbreak, a global war, can all this stuff go lower? Absolutely. Where nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody, you know, is gonna tell you. If anybody tells you they know exactly where something's going, they're lying to you. And we don't do that here. But the clues are telling us something. Hey, global, you know, global global crisis, World War three on the line, possibly here in the sense of, you know, what's going on around the world. And these stocks are up in the last five days. And the only thing up more is oil, which is really interesting. And, you know, and so that says, like, okay, the sellers have already sold. They've already sold on, you know, the fears of AI or maybe there's some ins. Clearly there's, there's always. Somebody always knows. Right. Poly Market shows us that. But, you know, they, they knew that this, you know, war was coming. No, this, this whole decision to go into Iran doesn't happen in 72 hours. This was planned, coordinated over weeks, if not months. And I'm sure I, you know, I would even say if we want to, you know, you, I don't want to say tinfoil hat necessarily, but like, like, all right, we're not going to do this during the Olympics. So, like, they had this whole plan from, you know, January 1st, it was like, hey, in 26, we're going to do this, but we're going to plan it, we're going to run our training exercises, we're going to get ready, we're going to let the Olympics pass and then we're going to go get them. That's not A crazy take. So people know this and, and then so it's like, okay, take your winners. What are the highest flying winners if word gets out? And some, you know, behind closed doors and you know, we all know the Nancy Pelosi tracker, you know, she knows when to pick the winners. I'm sure some people know and, and tell insider circles of what to sell. So whether it was an AI caught up or whether it was a pretense of war sell off, like it's what this tells me is like, hey there. Unless there's new information around the AI trade, around the software trade, or around global crisis, like the sellers, the sellers have already sold, they've already sold out of bitcoin, they've already sold out of this tech, you know, software etf. And my last point, I'm gonna bring up the S&P 500. So the S&P 500 is obviously the top 500 companies of market cap. And so year to date down 1.5%. But then if you go over to the S&P 500 equal weight, and so what that means is the, if you do an S&P 500 ETF, the S&P 500 is weighted to the market cap. So like hey, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, you know, those companies are going to be weighted more in the S and P, whereas The S&P 500 equal weight is like, hey, if you just took an equal piece of the 500 companies and so the equal weight is up 3%, the S&P 500 down 1.5 equal weight is up 3 and a half percent. That's a huge delta for these type of larger indexes. And so what that tells me is that the money's not leaving the stock market. In fact, The S&P 500 equal weight is basically, I guess year to date. I mean, it just hit an all time high at the end of February and then we're, you know, the 27th all time high and then we roll into war. So it's selling off, you know, with everything else. So that makes sense. But it's, it's telling me that hey, as much as the money's left on these AI trades and the selling of the software, the selling of crypto, it's not leaving the market entirely, it's not running to bonds, it's not, you know, totally running to cash, the market's just moving around, the money's moving around. And when people are truly, truly, truly scared and don't want to be in the markets, then you'll know, then there's a huge sell off and the, you know, the equal weight isn't at all time highs. So I think there's a lot to be, I don't want to say necessarily positive. It is a scary time out there and we've had, you know, a huge blow for sure. But it's constructive. It just feels like a constructive time. So I want to hand it back off to you Brian. You had some stats about just kind of Iran specifically in the Bitcoin realm.
- [13:17]
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- [14:35]
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- [15:22]
Brian
knew this a little bit, but I dug into the numbers a little bit and you know, give or take some estimates here, but it looks like Iran was like a top 5 top 10 bitcoin mining country in the world and they say they're between 2 to 5% bitcoin hash rate, which is really interesting and it Sounds like in 2025 they had about 7.8 billion, give or take of bitcoin. And that was to bypass some sanctions and whatever they were utilizing with it. So I don't, I, I just found that interesting honestly, because they were, you know, 5% of the Bitcoin hash rate. I don't think that's going to affect the bitcoin network and we'll probably have some outages there and what's going on, but, you know, just a, just a way to kind of correlate or pull this back into the crypto world. It was certainly interesting but you know, everything that's going on, Iran, we, we obviously want to say that we, we want to, what's best for the world and what's best for people overall. And we're not experts there, but it is interesting to see how these macro events are, do affect the market, affect the market globally. And then when you correlate it back to crypto, you know, 5% of the Bitcoin hash rate. I was, I was a little bit surprised that that number was as high as it was.
- [16:37]
TiVo
Yeah, that, that those are some interesting facts for sure. And again, I think it's something to monitor. I think the sanctions, evading the sanctions are the most interesting part of the use case for Iran. But I don't think that there's not enough money there to trigger some global sell off. What did you think? I think you were saying that gold's interesting to watch here. Bitcoin's interesting to watch here because some of the counters to the U.S. making this move is the adversaries of Russia and China. China specifically has been noted to like, hey, we'll sell, you know, we'll sell off, you know, technology, we'll sell off stocks, then we'll sell off Treasuries. Like we won't buy US Treasuries as kind of a counter move. So is that something you think correlated to bitcoin versus gold or just something you're keeping an eye on?
- [17:30]
Brian
Yeah, it's more, I'm just keeping an eye on it. I'm not one of those people that really like go after like, it's now time to buy gold, it's now time to buy bitcoin. I look at both assets really right now where the prices are probably pretty attractive. I could build a case for both. I feel more comfortable with bitcoin because of, you know, my history and just where I think it's going and just the upside overall. But you know, I think gold could be interesting here because of, you know, I could see China selling a lot of U.S. treasuries and buying gold. I don't know. That's something that seems to make sense. They've been doing it for some time, but from a crypto standpoint, I think bitcoin looks very attractive here. One token, and we don't have to get into this. We'll probably talk about another run a rundown. There's been a lot of really interesting tokens. Alts have been lagging behind slightly, but Hyper Liquid Hype is up like 20% on the week, up 4% on the day, up over $30. And that's a lot of. You can trade perps of, you know, gold, silver, and copper over on Hype, and it's been getting a lot of action. And we talk about this kind of. In these volatile days, these volatile weeks, one of the tokens that seems to perform really well is Hyper Liquid. And again, not financial advice for anybody out there. I'll disclose that I do hold a healthy position in hype and a healthy position in bitcoin, but those are. Those are a few assets I've just had my eyes on recently, how they've been reacting to the current market. But bitcoin and gold Hype looks interesting to me. You could build a case for lock, but they're all kind of centered around the same thing. I saw the stat.
- [19:06]
TiVo
It was like Hyper Liquid made, I think, like, $2 million in fees in, like, one day from their trading. And again, if you're a part, we love doing the podcast for you. But again, for Hyper Liquid, it's something that our team has covered on the VIP calls on the newsletters. I know, you know, Rohit has been, you know, doing the research and putting out a bunch of newsletters on that. So if being in the community and if you love the podcast and you love Brian, you love Bren, you love Bryce, you know, as always, there's. There's a trial down there. I think it's like a $1 trial for Cryp Nation. There's a $3 trial for Brian's group, Momentum Money Makers, with Brian and Joe. So if I kind. We had. Here's the thing. I think we had Brendan on for his, you know, technical analysis spectacular last Friday. And that cohort was open, and I was like, hey, you know, obviously, you know, it's our job to tell you to check it out. But I was like, now. I think now's the time. You need a little bit of technical analysis, need a little bit of strategy. You know, we feel like this is the opportune time to be figuring out and getting the research to, you know, make those decisions. And so if education and more, you know, knowledge is what you're looking for, check the links below. Join the community. You get more access to us literally every single day. But I, I want to, I want to bring up, we'll transition and start diving more into the crypto specific stuff for the rest of the show. We have a big rundown. I, we teased this on Friday as well with Brendan. We have our interview today with Robin Hood. Johan Kerbaugh, friend of the show of course, is joining us back again. And so we have to do a hard stop at like 1150 ish. So if we don't hit everything on the rundown, Brian's going to come back later this week. So we're going to start doing our, you know, our kind of our tidbits here, hitting them one by one. But whatever we don't finish, if we have to cut it short, we'll be back later this week. So I'm the one that's been saying, hey, you know, comparing it to the AI stocks, comparing crypto and bitcoin to software. I said, oh, I don't agree with you, TiVo, you're crazy. What do you know? Let's listen to other people. So from Pantera's Dan Morehead, we all know Pantera Capital. We've had them on the summits, we've had them on the podcast. You know, this guy's an OG who's made a ton of money in the space. Let's listen to his take. How crypto is being valued alongside AI
- [21:17]
Dan Morehead
and software next to the top 10 AI companies and they're trading about 20% over their long term trend. And crypto's trading at a 50% discount to its long term trend. So as a kind of relative value investor, I think crypto is very cheap relative to AI at this point. Is it cheap relative to just normalcy? No, no, I think it is. Crypto's come off 50% from its highs. You weren't expecting that. And it's literally at its seventh percentile value against this eight year trend average. So there have been a few times it's been a little bit cheaper than it is versus this train. But right now it's about as cheap as it gets. Also 93% of the time it has been above historically where it is right now. Exactly. And one of the things that's just wild about crypto is every investor that's owned bitcoin for four years has made money over the Entire history and I've never seen an asset class like that. So as long as you have a multi year view, this is a fantastic time to enter.
- [22:15]
TiVo
There it is straight from Pantera Capital undervalued compared to, you know, some of these AI stocks, software stocks that are also, you know, pulling back. So I thought that was interesting. Another stat that I found. I've been meaning to bring this up for a couple weeks, but we just had so much to talk about. The change in bitcoin ownership this year seems to be astounding. For 2025. It's like individuals are selling and we kind of covered that where we saw some old ancient whale accounts offloading, but again getting shaken out in that volatility of October into the end of the year. You know, individuals are selling and businesses funds and ETFs and governments are buying. So, you know, you pair this kind of macro stat of 2025 along with kind of the clip you just heard and kind of the thesis that I think our team's been building around where we are in the space. Again, it's time to educate and time to, you know, make your own decisions financially. Of course we can't tell you what to do there, but if you're a researcher and you're gathering all this information, this feels, this feels good. It feels, I like constructive. That's my word of the day, Brian. Constructive. It feels constructive here.
- [23:26]
Brian
I'll tell you, a couple guys that aren't those individuals have sold. It's. Well, we probably like to have sold the top and buy back a little bit lower. You know, we could always make a little bit stronger trade. But I think this is a pretty impactful slide that we talk about all the time. You know, retail has kind of moved out. They got hit hard. I mean, some of them bought 70s, 80s, 90s, 100, and then they, they experience the first, you know, 50% pullback, which we've lived through a few times. But the overall thesis is still as strong as ever. The fundamentals are strongest ever. And I align very in the same park as Pantera's CEO right there. I think what he said is, is quite accurate. Obviously anybody could be wrong, but I don't know. Personally, I feel like, you know, all these businesses and countries and states and funds just doubling and tripling down on the crypto world. Of course we're seeing a pullback here, but that's, that's a big opportunity in my eyes and I'm not crazy, TiVo. I'm really not crazy, man. Well, maybe I Don't know. I'm not crazy enough to like, blindly just keep bidding into an asset that I don't believe in. Like, I will tell people on the rundown if I lose faith or there's like some catalysts here of like, we're like, I don't know if we're gonna recover. You know, there's something here that doesn't make a lot of sense to me online. But everything that. It feels like this is a good opportunity. Again, we're just gonna keep saying because things happen. We could go a little lower. But this feels like you. What you were saying with these software stocks and with the crypto world does feel like we're finding this local bottom. I'm not putting max leverage in, but I feel personally comfortable to dollar cost averaging. And there's a lot of, you know, we're just showing stat after stat where, you know, it feels like it's scared. Paper hands are selling right now in. In the. In the diamond hands are adding. And we're going to. Maybe we're going to be eaten in a couple years. Thinking about how this is a great opportunity. Like when it hit four grand during COVID scary times, but man should have backed up the Brinks truck and bought as much as we could.
- [25:29]
TiVo
Yeah, it's. It's all. Again, it's all relative to your situation, your timeline. I agree with you if, if things change and you know, we're not going to feed you crap if we don't believe it. But I think it was. I think this was a good gut check in a way. And that's. That's how markets work. Like, you're always like, it just feels up forever. We've tried to talk about that. I know in the newsletter. We had like some euphoria newsletters and just trying to break that down and we talk about, you know, it goes both ways. When your uncle's. I told that story of my uncle calling the, you know, should he buy? I was like, oh, maybe I should sell a little bit and buy a condo. And then the same thing. When it's at the low, all your friends start calling you and they're like, ah, Bitcoin's down 50. Not buying that crap. So it goes. It totally goes both ways for sure. But one thing I think building off all this, the Pantera and this graphic as well, is Raoul Paul, friend of the show. Of course he'll be. I think I booked him for next week, so just. Absolutely.
- [26:32]
Sponsor Voice 1
Yeah.
- [26:32]
Brian
I mean, these are big boy guests, dude. These are like people that I would be kind of nervous to like meet. I'd be like, ah, this is cool.
- [26:41]
TiVo
Everybody has TiVo. You say friend of the show a lot. I mean it. Friend of the show. Raoul Paul on Will retail be back? Two minute clip here, but I think worth a listen.
- [26:51]
Raoul Pal
The fastest possible returns. If you go with the thesis that most retail investors, the Robin Hood crowd and the coinbase crowd, they're generally in their 20s and 30s, they generally can't afford a house, they're generally working two or three jobs and they're looking for a way out. And so they will speculate. They're also a gaming generation. So losing your life is not the end of the world because you lose it in games and you start again. Right. They grew up on gaming, so it's a risk taking culture and it's a logical risk taking culture when there's no way of getting out of the trap unless you take risk. So they just move where the returns are. So they're all on Robinhood trading options on Palantir and tech stocks. And then gold and silver start going. They start trading that. So if the returns start coming back to crypto, and we know that over time crypto's outperformed. I posted a chart on X recently about the gold crypto ratio. I mean, since 2020, I think crypto Bitcoin's outperformed gold by 87 and a half percent. So as soon as crypto starts moving, it has that super massive black hole effect because it outperforms everything and it just sucks in capital. So they will be back. They didn't leave crypto forever. They just lost their stake at the casino. And if they've got a stake, they went elsewhere to the different casino and they'll come back to whatever casino pays the best odds.
- [28:23]
TiVo
It's exactly. That is exactly what a couple of our episodes were weeks ago when we were talking like, you know, we had to talk about how gold was flying high and like, you know, it was crazy. It got crazy. Silver as well. And then we had that one Friday, I think it was with Brendan. I'm not sure if you were on. Was that day that silver dropped like 25% in a day. On Friday. It was like a Friday. And so it's like, okay, store of assets. Silver, gold, gold was down 10, 12%. Silver was down 25% on the day for one point. Like crazy market cap type moves. It's okay. Yes. The fundamentals of these assets, you know, you can do the research and have the take. And I don't think any of them are necessarily wrong, but did gold and silver turn into a casino? Absolutely. Does the crypto casino turn on a lot? Absolutely. Absolutely. And so that's a great take. It's like, hey, when it's working, everybody loves it. When it's not and something else is working, people are going to go elsewhere. That's, that's how it is. That's how it is.
- [29:27]
Brian
I haven't heard people talk about investing in copper for five years. And then over the past few months, more people have come out and they're like, you should check out Copper. It's the next one to go. We love Copper here, Copper this, Copper that. It's. It's speculating. You know, they see they're trying to chase that next big win, that next, that next move up, and I'm okay with it. I'm. I speculate too. You know, I try to follow where the momentum is. That's something that I've always done really well. But I think what, what Raoul Paul said there is very, very accurate, and I never really put it together. I'm gonna steal a lot of those analogies because it makes a lot of sense to us. You know, we're. I'm not a big gamer, but we. A lot of people in this world are gamers and they understand kind of going back to zero and starting over, trying again, trying a different route. Problem solvers, less people, nine to five, more people that are trying to, you know, launch careers on social media or, you know, sell clothing online or collectibles. I mean, it's just a different way of mind. So whenever there's opportunity and we start to see money flow back in and there's a chance to get that next big opportunity in. Crypto is one of the biggest ones out there. In the way it trades makes it so intuitive and easy too, for our generation, it's going to flow back. So everything he says I'm really aligned to, and I'm definitely stealing a lot of those points.
- [30:51]
TiVo
Yeah, it was truly a great clip. And I believe I have him booked for Monday. So this guy, it's just whale hunting. Whale hunting again. I, I said, I said it's like, hey, like, you know, when companies and prices are down and companies are building, that's the ones you want to be a part of. Market's down. What does crypto101 do? It still puts out multiple episodes a week of, of the rundowns and still getting the best interviews in the space. So if this is something that you guys like and you appreciate on YouTube. Throw us a thumbs up if you're new, bottom right. Hit the logo and subscribe. Drop a comment and let us know what you guys think. We're always, we're always interested in hearing from you guys and appreciate the listenership. Something I thought was interesting. I knew you're my, you're my prediction market super cycle guy. Now the NASDAQ is looking to launch its own prediction market. So again it's falling under the regulation, the sec, not the cftc. Interestingly enough, this prediction market, that's a huge change from the other ones.
- [31:56]
Brian
Yeah, that's interesting. I didn't pick that up actually. I saw this news trending yesterday and kind of was like prediction market super cycle and a lot of reasons why we talk about prediction markets and it's a very interesting use case moving forward, but did not see that regulatory framework. We're really trying to hammer out these regulations or prediction markets from everything from insider trading to just legality and lobbyists of exactly what they're doing and what's falling under the CFTC was falling under the sec. So I think prediction markets are going to be, you know, have a much stronger framework and maybe this is the, maybe the NASDAQs know something that we don't know about why they want to move forward with the sec, not the cftc. I have to do a little bit more due diligence behind this. But again further to throw another log on the fire about prediction market super cycle. They're not going anywhere, I'll tell you that much. Maybe they'll look a little different. They're not going anywhere.
- [32:54]
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- [33:09]
TiVo
And to your point of enforcement, insider trading. Calci just issued its first enforcement action finding a Mr. Beast affiliate. That guy, former governor, candidate for insider trading. So I don't know. Yeah, just your take. Toss it to you. You're my, you're my super cycle guy.
- [33:26]
Brian
I, I, I did, I didn't, I didn't prep. I know about this story about the Mr. Purdy beast insider. It was like what was the Beast games? He like knew certain outcomes, he knew certain challenges they were gonna do and just really. And I think the amount he wagered was quite low. I wish I had that, but we're talking like thousands of dollars and he got dinged for it. So kind of a bad look there. But again, when you're playing with These prediction markets and someone has the outcome, you have to know that you're playing with some insiders. Like that's just the game we're signing up for, right? Unless it's a binary event.
- [34:09]
TiVo
I mean it's, it's, I guess it's all relative. Like we kind of talked about this before where the insider is going to be the tell to let people know the truth. So we want to know the truth on certain things. Like Mr. Beast's games doesn't have any outcome to the life, you know, the average everyday life of people. But when it comes to, you know, whether it's elections or, you know, the war, there's people getting riled up on that prediction market. Some something happened with Kalsha. I didn't really dive too deep into it because it's just, you know, it's, it's not event that I want to dive into of like, should they be paid out or not. I mean we're talking about, you know, the horrors of war. So we're not going to dive into that. But what's, what, what's right and what's wrong? Like Mr. Beast Games, if you have some inside information on that, you can't make money on that. But then over here, like they're not going to prosecute people that know, you know, things inside the government like that, you're probably never going to know who those people are. So it feels, it feels like such a gray area. But I think, you know, as a business, as a business, Von Cowshee and I have, you know, huge partnerships. I think they partnered with like cnbc, the official, you know, betting market of a business channel. Like you're going to have to try to show that you have a play fair playing field. So, you know, it's just like anything else. There's going to be people that are going to be, you know, gunned for and get, you know, slaps on the wrist or harder financial punishments or whatever the regulators want to do. And then there's going to be people that get away with it. It's going to be the same as insider trading with the stock market. Right. So I think that's where we're going to end up.
- [35:46]
Brian
How much do you think he wagered? I found it out. I found it out.
- [35:50]
TiVo
So for the Mr. Beast and it was like, who wins Beast Games or something, he was a
- [35:54]
Brian
video editor and he was editing the unreleased video edit. So he knew what was happening behind it, who the winners were of certain challenges. But across all the markets, how much do you think he wagered.
- [36:09]
TiVo
He's video editor for Mr. Beast. I'm gonna go with like 150k.
- [36:17]
Brian
4 grand. A guy wagered 4 grand to win $5,400 in profit. Bad.
- [36:26]
TiVo
They find him. How's that? I wanna, I mean, not that, you know, but like, how's that a red flag? That doesn't seem like a crazy.
- [36:31]
Brian
Doesn't.
- [36:31]
TiVo
No, I, I thought it would be volume that sticks out. It's like, hey, for Mr. Beast Games, the average bet is, you know, 500 to $1,000. And then somebody wagers like a hundred thousand.
- [36:43]
Brian
I mean they koshy kycs, so they probably kyc. My guy, Art Artem Couture probably used his real kyc. I don't know how else you would get caught because I don't know. I mean, we're not shady like that, man. We're just, we're just good old boys trying to make a couple bucks in the crypto market, you know. You know, maybe a prediction here and there that's, you know, that we don't have insider info on. But yeah, he was smacked with $15,000 fine, pretty much total penalty of about 20,000 bucks and banned for two years. And he got reported to regulators. So kind of a slap on the wrist for straight up insider trading. But four grand seems like, I don't know, he might be playing a few fries short of a happy Meal.
- [37:32]
TiVo
Hey, somebody always knows. And I, I didn't, I missed this on the sheet, but like for Polymarket had a record $470 million in trading. Yeah, I was like on par with the election because somebody knew, you know that obviously somebody. Somebody always knows. And there were people. At least six insider trading links profited around a million dollars. That's related to the conflict. So we won't deep dive on that, but it's just more information for the people. Again, if you're not into the betting markets, if you're not looking at them, you don't even have to play or wager. It's just, it's where a lot of information, you know, you can gather and it could be a part of your arsenal for education, for making trades and investments. So that's why we bring it up. Even though the topic this time isn't as deep dive on, but a record day for Polymarket on par with the election. So it's something to note. Truly, truly is. We'll do some quick hitters to end the show here. Sui some altcoin news. Two spot Sui ETFs have debuted in the US with Canary Capital. Canary Capital, you've interviewed him a couple times, friends of the show, NASDAQ and Grayscale with the listings. And they both are gonna offer staking rewards. So again, more exposure to the general markets for altcoins. It'll be interesting to continue to monitor these. Obviously now with the market down, you're not going to see tons of inflows, but nonetheless, it'll be added to our repertoire to keep tabs on. Any thoughts on Sui? Brian?
- [39:07]
Brian
It seems great. You know, good old Canary Capital rocking out another etf, man, they're knocking them out left and right. You know, Sui has its place in this world. I don't know what the price, action or kind of what else has been going on with it recently, but I have a small bag, I believe.
- [39:24]
TiVo
There you go. Another fun one that we've talked about is Chain Link. And this was interesting. Again, this is a, something I wanted to talk about for a couple weeks. Let's see, the chief council of the SEC's crypto task force. This man is going to be, is going to be that Taylor Lindman. And he, he worked at Chainlink for a while. So Chainlink is sending him off to the SEC to be chief counsel of the crypto task force. And he was formerly an employee at Chainlink, worked on Chainlink. So if you're a Chainlink person, you definitely, I think you like this, right? Getting a link table.
- [40:06]
Brian
The Link Marines, man. Now, I was kind of just trying to get Sui out of my vision there and sweep it under the rug because I wanted to talk about Chain Link. I know, I like Chainlink a lot, actually. We had an in person meeting and we did a little fun token battles and Chainlink was one of my picks until Rohit body bagged me famously. But, you know, we'll talk about that another time. But I like Chainlink. I think it's a strong product, a strong coin. It's the infrastructure of all things going on. And this relationship can't really go unnoticed. Right? I mean, the guy was at Chainlink for five years like that. That's not a negative. Unless he knows something that's really negative. But I, I don't think that's the case.
- [40:52]
TiVo
No, I mean, I think it, to me it means, hey, you have an open, you have an open line to the SEC's crypto task force to, hey, if there is a problem, you're going to get it tightened up or if there's some, you know, regulation that maybe the Chain Link crew is looking for. It's you know, not a guarantee per se, but you have an inside track to present your case. And yeah, five years is not a short time. You know, that's, that's, that's a lot. It's a lot to work at one place. So I'm sure he has some relationships. Last one of the day before we gotta sign off here. Is Bitcoin stuck in a rut, but JP Morgan and Jamie Crypto diamond says that new legislation could be the ultimate spark again. That's what everybody's watching around the Clarity act. And, you know, along with all these big banks, which we continue to cover and will continue to cover, keep making their moves in crypto and blockchain being the future, there's a lot riding on this Clarity Act. It feels like everybody has an opinion on it. I saw one today. We'll bring that later in the week. I think it was the Cardano founder was not happy with what it looks like right now. So both sides have a lot. Feels like there's a lot at stake, but at the same time, the administration feels like they need to pass it to get some type of progress in this space before midterms. So. Any thoughts?
- [42:17]
Brian
Yeah, a little Hopium I threw on the sheet for us. I think we have a good possibility of Clariac getting done this year. I know there's a lot going back and forth between banks and yields and everybody has their own opinion about it. Everyone has their own vested interest. But it's good to see Jamie Crypto diamond, you know, kind of, kind of mentioning it out there. He's throwing it out there in the news circles, getting it kind of flowing. You know, it's better than him calling bitcoin a pet rock and completely backing off of it. It's just a little bit of Hopium we can drink. Jamie Crypto diamonds fuel in the fire and we'll see until it's actually inked. That's when we can start celebrating. But a lot, a lot of crypto companies, a lot of people in the government, a lot of banks have a lot riding on this Clarity Act. So I think it's a big deal.
- [43:05]
TiVo
Yeah. And when we want it passed for hopium and momentum, but you gotta think or and understand what's actually in the bill. And they're always changing and adding disclosures and changes and this and that. So we gotta wait until it's built and then we gotta really break down everybody's take on it because there's going to be a lot of people that love it. There's Going to be a couple people that hate it. There's going to be people in the middle. And so, you know, that's going to be our job obviously for you guys, as we'll parse through it. But you know, as much as I hope it passes, I don't know, there's been so much talk and debate about it that we really, once it passes, we really gotta just dive into it and learn from it to see where it's going. Because it does feel like it's shaping up to be a huge piece of legislation for blockchain, for crypto and to have the traditional bank so involved means that there's going to be give and take.
- [43:58]
Brian
Yeah, for sure, man. So I think there's greener pastures ahead for it. But right now we're fighting a lot of geopolitical stuff. We're fighting a lot of things in the market and we'll probably go sideways for a little bit, but not terrible.
- [44:13]
TiVo
So something that we've been ready for. And again, it's the education and understanding where we are in the markets and how to place your whether they're bets or investments long term, because we do have a lot of fun. I mean, Punch the Monkey again, if you're a listener, longtime listener here, you got some huge alpha with Punch the Monkey recently getting a 6, 7, 8X and you find that. And there's always opportunity with you guys and the research. And hyper liquid again is another one where there's tons of opportunity in all markets. And that's what we do here. We try and find it for you again. Just wanted to bring you the news today. We had some good quick hitters too, but it was, you know, sadly, what's going on around the world is a huge part of the markets and so we had to cover it. Brian and I will be back later this week. We'll figure out a time whether it's Thursday or Friday and we promise to bring an update all around if there is need needed, of course. But we'll bring some fun too. We'll bring some momentum, money makers, some meme talk. We'll get in the trenches and have some fun later this week as well. We really appreciate everybody listening. Thank you all as always. And we'll talk to everybody later in the week. All right, bye bye, everybody.
- [45:37]
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