← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Markets RIP HIGHER on Good Inflation Data Plus The Bullish News for 2025
00:52:03
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- [00:00]
Brennan
Foreign welcome back everyone, to your crypto rundown. Once again, you know, we're entering into 2025 with a lot of volatility. There's a lot going on in the markets. In fact, we're starting things off really strong here and getting just continued volatility. TiVo, I know it's something that we've been talking about quite a bit over here, but the volatility continues and We've seen these $10,000 price swings to the upside and the downside and altcoins have been getting it on an even more volatile scale. And so what we have this week is just a handful of catalysts, seriously more than we could count. But we have about 10 different catalysts that we want to talk about. We're going to look at the charts, we're going to look at the news, and of course we got to talk about that CPI report because everything is just skyrocketing as bitcoin is very quickly approaching the one hundred thousand dollar price level again. So, TiVo, how you doing? I feel like you can't be doing bad with, with a nice little rally like this one.
- [01:10]
TiVo
Yeah, finally, you know, some fun things to talk about in the new year here, 15 days in. I know, you know, last week's episode we had so much to digest coming back from the New year and all the things that happened during the two plus weeks that we were gone. But basically, I think the exciting part is, is it's right where, you know, we've been kind of steering the listeners over the course of, you know, say six weeks, even though we weren't around for the holiday season. You know, we talked about kind of how, you know, the Fed had its hands on or could have its hands on the market happen sooner rather than later. But we did, you know, we did kind of forewarn that. And then, you know, we're kind of getting that insight into the inflation data with the CPI print this morning, which has the markets very excited today. So I know we're going to basically kick it off with that. So what would you see this morning, Brennan, with the cpi?
- [02:00]
Brennan
Yeah, well, let's go ahead and throw up the screen share so that everyone can actually see the numbers. And a quick reminder here, if you're listening on Spotify or Apple podcasts or anything like that, you got to head over to our YouTube to see all the graphics, all these charts and news articles that we're going to be putting on the screen and referencing throughout this episode. So if you want to see all that, pause the video Right here. Go over to YouTube and that's where you're going to see all of the video sections that we're going to be referencing. So if we open up this graphic and we take a look at the CPI report, you know, this has been an ongoing discussion for anyone, you know, whether you're in crypto, you're outside of crypto. We've been talking about how the Fed has been playing a pretty big role in the volatility of all these risk assets. Right? You know, the traditional markets, indices, stocks, and crypto is put into that same group. And, you know, what we've seen here is that people have not been satisfied with manufacturing data or some Fed information or jobs. And the one thing that everyone really cares about has been inflation for these risk assets, because that is what the Fed is kind of honing their sights in on for the moment. That seems to be their main directive going into this year, is how can we deal with inflation? And so now the average person has kind of turned their sights towards this data as well. And, you know, so far we've gotten two different inflation reports this week, the most recent one being cpi. And that's what we have on the screen here. So for our month over month, CPI, CPI, we are forecasted for a 0.3%. And in actual, we got 0.2% for the year over year, we were forecasted at 3.3% and we came in at 3.2%. And when you look at how the markets responded to this news, it was pretty freaking positive. And if we go ahead and take a look at the charts now, you know, we can see that with this initial report, you know, bitcoin was breaking below 90k. We are breaking below a very crucial, important support level that we had bounced off of for the bulk of November, December and even January. So, you know, here we can kind of see that we bounced off 90k, you know, 1, 2, you know, 3, 4, 5, just time after time. And for the last couple of months like this has been the line in the sand to hold. So when we started getting a little bit of a breakdown here, people got scared. But then that first inflation report came out and we started skyrocketing. We bounced off of $89,000. And now here we are just two days later, you know, going from Monday to Wednesday, and we're pushing towards 100k, you know, 10 to $11,000 higher than we were just at on Monday. And so what that really means is that we're pushing up about 11 to 12% on Bitcoin and if we look at a lot of these more mainstream altcoins, you know, the rally could be even greater than that. You know, I've been eyeing up something like Avax which is up nearly 20% in the last couple of days. I think that we can look at, you know, TiVo was talking to me about aerodrome before this and this is one that's up nearly almost 45% in the last couple of days since Monday. And we can look at a handful of these other ones. You know, we like to talk about the big caps like Solana which is up about 16, 17% since Monday. And we can even look at ETH which is bouncing around 15 since Monday. So altcoins, you know, even bitcoin, the crypto markets across the board here are seeing a lot of recovery and we're continuing to see that with that new report that we got today. And the markets are responding positively to this. So you know, the big areas to watch kind of moving forward here before we get into all the catalysts that are going to help push us to these new all time highs, you know, I think the big areas are still going to be 90k so long as we close our candle bodies, those daily candles, excuse me, above 90k, that's going to be a really important zone to.
- [06:04]
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- [06:17]
Brennan
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- [06:23]
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- [07:05]
Brennan
So you know, whether you're a technical analyst, you're a trader, it doesn't matter. Watch for those daily candle closings to be above 90K. And, and you know the real big thing that we saw here with this fake out, and I think that's the only appropriate way to address this is with this fake out. You know, we wicked down but we were immediately bought up in mass. And that's the way that I look at this is that we briefly broke 90k but the buyers were so comfortable so Aggressive buying up bitcoin from that level that, you know, we barely live down there at all. In fact, we almost went green on the day, from a day that was, you know, from top to bottom. It was about a seven and half percent fall. And we actually almost ended up turning that candle green on the day because the buyers were so aggressive. So what that tells me is two things. You know, 90k is still a really strong support. We were unable to close below it, which is a really bullish thing. And even if we do go back down there, we have seen that time and time and time again that the buyers are very comfortable around and even below 90,000. So there's a lot of people that are still on the sideline saying, hey, if we get down that low, that's where I want to be aggressive with my buying. And it makes sense, you know, because bitcoin is really sought after. We have the new administration coming in, talking about all the changes that they want to make, talking about, you know, a bitcoin strategic reserve and regulatory easing and a couple of other things that I won't spoil quite yet. But we do see a lot of positive stuff on the horizon. So the big levels to watch out for this week. But before we move into some of these, some of these news articles and these catalysts is, you know, watch for bitcoin approaching some of these previous levels to the upside. We have right around 102,000, 103,000, that's where we saw some resistance last time. And then above that, as we get closer to maybe 107, 108K, that's going to be the all time high resistance for Bitcoin, while 90k remains the big, big support level to keep an eye out moving forward. So all good stuff coming in here from the charts. TiVo, again, not a lot of bad stuff to say. I have seen that. You know, xrp, we, we've talked about it in mixed emotions for months. I said, hey, this thing is probably one of the worst performing cryptos coming up until November. And then in around November, I flipped, I saw the move that it had. We talked about its constant moves and I want to actually highlight this, but what we saw was these moves. Up bull flag, move up bull flag, move up flag. And it's kind of been in this consistent pattern now. And it went from again, what I was describing as one of the worst performing cryptos during this period where it had just years of sideways price action, to now being one of the hottest, most tradable cryptos out there. And so I want to give it its, its kind of recognition and kudos because you know, we're here to make money and when something's hot, it is and when it's not, it's not. But this is back to being hot. And you know, we saw this gigantic rally into yet another big bull flag and here it is, it's breaking out of it. It held the 50 day moving average and now it's rallying into new cycle highs, kind of contesting those all time highs were just, which are just a little bit above three bucks here. So XRP seeing a big move on the day, up about 11 and a half percent. And you know, the AI sector has really been recovering as well. You know, I know we've been keeping an eye on things like virtuals and AI, XBT and you know, a lot of these other ones which are recovering in a quite a strong manner on the day as well. So all across the board, again, nothing really bad to say. I think it's going to be pretty hard to find a red crypto. In fact, I'm going through my watch list on the right side of my screen and I actually can't find a single crypto that is red on the day. As you know, really the only thing on my list that is red is bitcoin dominance in the DXY as altcoins really, really rally. So yeah, I mean, positive stuff all around. I don't know if anything's caught, caught your eye, TiVo, but you know, one of the things that you brought up to me was that Fear and Greed index.
- [11:15]
TiVo
Yeah, I think if, there we go, I'll throw this up. So we haven't brought this up in a while but, but you know, a good, a good metric that we just like to tap into every once in a while is the Bitcoin Fear and Greed index. And for anybody new out there, this is definitely a lagging indicator. Right. So it's kind of, you know, not necessarily something that you want to look at every day but you know, when there's big moves in the market, you definitely want to take a look. And the reason I thought it was good to bring it up today is because, you know, we, you know, to pull back the curtain maybe on the crypto101 team. I know we had our team meeting on Monday, Brendan, and you and I were there with the rest of the team and we kind of went around and was checking the pulse on what everybody was thinking. And yeah, everybody, everybody was pretty downtrodden. Like I think there was so much momentum Going into the end of the year that, you know, we were just hoping that everything continues to go up and, you know, when the entire team was. Not necessarily. I think as a team we're extremely bullish overall. But in the short term, it felt like everybody was, was a little downtrodden. And so that made me think of like the fear and greed index, you know, what's that showing? And I don't know. Interesting, interesting take here at 70. So it is greed. Yesterday was 63, and then last month was extreme greed at 83. So obviously in that extreme greed, you know, maybe it's time to take some healthy profits, depending on your trading strategy, because it's never personal financial advice from us. But definitely hanging up in the greed area still, but definitely trending towards the middle. So I, I don't know, I think it's just one of those things I like to look at. I thought that maybe it might actually be even more towards the middle, like more of a. Maybe a neutral. But the price action has been really high, obviously, you know, the last. With our last big move up in that 90 to 107 range. But what are you taking away from this? Did you think it would be 70 or you think it'd be a little higher or lower?
- [13:07]
Brennan
Yeah, you know, I think it's. I was expecting it to be a little bit lower probably in the 60s. But, you know, like you said, this is typically a lagging indicator. You can see that last month was extreme greed. I think that's actually pretty accurate. I think even where we're at right now is more in lines of that neutral territory. And I think what would have tipped us from greed to fear or maybe even extreme fear is a break of that 90k support level and a close below it. So I think that if we started retracing below 90k to the 70s to the 80s, I think that's where we flip into fear territory because people are going to say, oh no, you know, we broke the major support level for Bitcoin up here. Now everyone's getting fearful. And I think that's what we need to tip us over the scale to fear. And you know, until we, until we break that, I think that a very neutral level is going to be at around 90k, where people aren't necessarily greedy at 90k, but they're not necessarily super fearful either. And so I think that's why we're hovering here. Again, I think we deserve to be probably a little bit lower like we saw yesterday. I think the 60s is a really fair place for the fear and greed index here, but still healthy price action so far.
- [14:17]
TiVo
No, couldn't agree more. And I think that you nailed it by saying last month at extreme greed. So actually if you literally go one month to the day, was the day, the day or a couple days before that Fed meeting where we talked about it last week where Jerome Powell absolutely nuked the markets. And it's actually a perfect day to revisit that today because the CPI which we just talked about at the beginning of the show is calming the markets down. And it's kind of exactly how we phrased it last month when we talked about the potential of Fed and inflation intervention was, you got to zoom out and take the long picture. If your thesis is that inflation's coming down, which is, you know, inside the numbers are showing that there's always going to be hiccups in this type of data. And if you, if you're a bitcoin believer in a bitcoin bull with the incoming administration, you know, your long term view would be bullish. And so I think it's, it's a great, you know, last week we definitely had to digest everything that happened while we were on break. But I think it's a great reminder today that the CPI is telling us, you know, hopefully what the future holds with inflation continuing the downward trend. And then the rest of the show here we have all this bullish news to talk about. So you got to, you know, you don't want to get trapped in those weekly price movements and shakeouts and like you were saying the beginning of the show, those $10,000 ranges, you don't want to get caught up in that. I think it's a great day to, you know, kind of talk about all the bullish news that we are continuing to. So we'll, we'll transition to the first one. So you pointed this out. It was, you know, Meta and the board talking about maybe, you know, doing some bitcoin strategy. And I know I've heard you say it many times, it's not necessarily the Michael Saylor way of doing things, but it's, it's something that's being talked about and it seems like the shareholders of Meta are talking about it.
- [16:05]
Brennan
Yeah, you know, they definitely are talking about it. And I think a clear kind of distinction that we need to make here is that this does not mean that they are adopting it. It doesn't even necessarily mean that they're going to be voting on it. But what they are doing is potentially looking at this as even a possibility Something that wouldn't have happened a couple of years ago. That's something that we saw just last month. Who was it? Microsoft? Microsoft was voting on this just a month ago. And, you know, they ended up shooting it down. They said it would be a little bit redundant with some exposure that they already had. But now what we're seeing is that other, other tech companies are looking at this as a viable option. And, you know, Facebook is huge. I mean, it says it in the post here, but they have $72 billion in liquid assets. And you know, even if they only put probably you know, a half a percent, 1%, 2, maybe 3% of those reserves into something like Bitcoin, I think it makes a lot of sense. And we've started to see a lot of these strategic reserves kind of be brought to the table. You know, we saw last week that this has been happening with other countries. We've also seen in recent weeks that this has been happening with states. I know, you know, Florida, which is where, you know, me and TiVo reside, you know, they put forth the idea of a bitcoin state reserve, and a handful of other states have done this as well. And so I think now what we're seeing is people try to front run the mainstream US Government if they are actually going to go through with this, whether it is states, whether it is companies, whether it is foreign countries, there's a lot of people that are trying to front run this idea. And I think Facebook, or rather Meta now is just addressing the idea of, you know, hey, is this something that we are interested in doing? This is not something that is a done deal by any means, but I think just having the conversation is a really cool thing that we wouldn't have necessarily even seen from them a couple of years ago. And I think that we're also going to see, especially if we end up getting the reserve, I think we're going to see a lot of other countries or companies, excuse me, come forth and kind of bring up this topic as well, where they talk about, you know, maybe the pros and cons of doing this and whether they will, you know, genuinely consider it. So it's a good step in the right direction because if we have Tesla and we have Microsoft and we have Meta talking about doing this, well, they really set the standard for the rest of these companies that are out there. And, you know, if we start seeing more and more of these giants turn over and do this as, you know, a hedge or risk mitigation or whatever it may be, again, I think we'll see a lot of other companies kind of follow in suit.
- [18:48]
TiVo
Couldn't agree more. And in other bullish news, and coming from a bank that you might not expect is JP Morgan. So JP Morgan put out a note believing that Solana and XRP could attract $15 billion in inflows through ETPs. And I think it's. Well, obviously XRP. We just talked about the beginning of the show, you know, approaching 52 week highs and Solana being kind of that, you know, getting up into the market caps of that top five. And, and basically, you know, that next step of David Sacks becoming the crypto czar starting Monday. These, you know, talking to all our friends like James Safart, Matt Hogan and just kind of seeing the bullish news around the possibility of altcoin. ETFs is on the rise. And I find it fascinating that, you know, whoever's coming out and signing off and releasing these notes works at JP Morgan, which is under a friend of the show, Jamie Dimon, who is very anti bitcoin, specifically, not necessarily anti crypto and blockchain technology as he likes to call it, but very anti crypto, sorry, very anti bitcoin. But, you know, it's one of those things where maybe, you know, follow what they do and not as much what they say. So what do you, what do you read in the tea leaves here, Brendan, with JP Morgan putting out a note like this?
- [20:10]
Brennan
Yeah, you know, it's funny, it's nothing new. Jamie Dimon has been notoriously anti crypto, anti bitcoin. And it's funny because he's saying one thing and his company is doing another. And it feels like everyone at his company disagrees with him to the point where usually if the president is that convinced on something, the company won't do it. But we're past that point where he's still convinced, but his company is saying, hey, you know, it almost feels kind of disrespectful where they're like sitting him on the sidelines and benching him and being like, all right, it's okay, bud, you know, yeah, go say what you want, but we're going to go and do the exact opposite of what you're saying is the president of our company and it's worked out well for him so far. So, you know, I do think it's kind of disrespectful of them to do it, but I think that they're right. And it's probably only a matter of time before either A, Jamie makes his departure, or B, he pivots because I don't think that it's good for the public eye for him to be saying, you know, it's poison or whatever on TV and that it's useless and for his company to have so much exposure to it and make these predictions that they could have billions of dollars into Altcoin inflows alone. So what do I think that they're doing here? Who knows? I mean, you could write up a million different conspiracy theories. You could talk about how they have been sued pretty much every year for as far back as you can look on a single Google page for market manipulation. You know, you look at the metals market and that's a great example. You know, just look at their track record with things like gold and silver and all those. And so he knows, you know, you could create some conspiracy and say, hey, they're doing that here. Again, this is just another example of JP Morgan market manipulation. Or you could just say, hey, they genuinely just disagree. Everyone thinks it's good except for him. And we truthfully don't have an answer here. But you know, they're smart and the analysts there are smart as well. So when they're talking about, hey, it's possible that we could see $15 billion in net infl flows into these altcoin ETFs that haven't come around yet, they're saying two things. Number one, we're expecting that there's going to be Salana, XRP and probably other altcoin ETFs. They think it's likely. Number two, you know, if, if, or rather probably when they get approved, we could see billions of dollars in net inflows. And I agree with them there. You know, Tiva, we've had the awesome opportunity to talk with a lot of these ETF providers, right? I mean, just recently we talked a bitwise, we talked to 21 shares, we've talked to some of these other asset managers. And the one thing that they are all saying is we think that altcoin ETFs are very likely and not just one, not just two. They want a lot of altcoin ETFs. In fact, they want enough altcoin ETFs to eventually be able to create an index of, of cryptocurrencies. So we're seeing a big push. The institutions want it. And I think that it's something that we're very likely going to get under looser crypto regulation. So all positive stuff here, and I think people are going to try to front run. That's Kind of the next step is that I think people are going to try to front run some of these cryptos that are the most likely to get these ETF approvals so that they can catch the run before the run technically happens, so to say. So. Yeah.
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TiVo
And let's give the I caught a clip for the people. So one of my, one of my guilty pleasures is a beautiful cup of coffee Sunday morning and watching the CBS Sunday morning show. And I don't know why. I just used to watch it with my mom back in the day. And it's a, it's a pretty historical show. It's been on forever. Definitely don't agree with every segment they do by any means, but they have, they have some good guests. And Jamie diamond was actually one of their featured interviews this weekend. And so kind of just summarizing what we just talked about with, you know, how he speaks on bitcoin, if any of the listeners ever out there haven't heard one of his quotes, here's his most recent one from us this past Sunday.
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Brennan
This is a pet rock. What do you really think you're going.
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Tax Reform Ad
To have some kind of digital currency at one point? So I'm not against crypto. You know, bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value. It's used heavily by sex traffickers, money launderers, ransomware. So I just don't feel great about bitcoin. I applaud your ability to want to buy or sell it. Just like I think you have the right to smoke, but I don't think.
- [24:43]
TiVo
You should smoke since he so, you know, interesting take. That's obviously people against bitcoin always throw those three out. But then, you know, if I was the interviewer, I might ask, you know, you were, you were the number one banker for, for Jeffrey Epstein, who is a renowned, you know, sex trafficker. So is bitcoin the sex traffic bank or are you the sex traffick bank, my friend? But yeah, I don't know. That would just be a good, healthy debate. I do think, you know, if you look at the history of that bank and their stock price, you know, there's no, there's no doubt that that guy's a hall of fame CEO no matter how you do it. And sometimes business politics is a dirty game. So, you know, your hands aren't always going to be clean for sure. But, you know, I just, it's good to, it's good to see how somebody like him, who's very powerful in the finance space is talking about crypto, apparently a little positive. And then Bitcoin anti. But somebody else that is very bullish in the crypto space is Chamath from the all in podcast. And I know you caught the clip where he was talking about stablecoins. So we'll, we'll go from a negative view on crypto to positive with Chamath. So what were you seeing there, Brennan?
- [25:53]
Brennan
Yeah, you know, I was watching this because for people who don't know, Chamath is one of the co hosts of the all in podcast. It's a really popular one. But one of the other co hosts there is David Sachs, who's going to be the new crypto czar for the US under the Trump administration. And that was something that we reported on a couple of weeks ago. So I like to pay attention to what they're talking about because these guys are, you know, arguably best friends with the guy who's going to be in charge of crypto for the next four years in the US So I take what they think and what they say with a lot of, you know, with a lot of validity. You know, it doesn't mean it has to be true. But these are guys who are plugged into the most, one of the most plugged in persons that you could be when it comes to bridging mainstream crypto to the US Government and governments around the world. And what Chamath said is, hey, my prediction for 2025 is that one of the biggest beneficiaries is going to be stablecoins and that stablecoins are poised for big growth. He talks about some of the issues that we've been seeing with Visa and MasterCard. And for people who don't know, they've been in a battle between, you know, themselves in the US Government for monopoly, you know, antitrust, you know, charging people too much in terms of their rates and their profit margins. And there's been a lot of just conflict there. And what he says is it's kind of this perfect storm where stable coins can come in and really grow and thrive, especially under new regulations. And that was kind of his bet. So again, I want to let him speak it, I want to let him kind of explain it through this short clip, but it is very insightful. And then we'll talk about maybe some of the ways to capitalize on this moving forward.
- [27:39]
Chamath
I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stablecoins. I'll make two points. In 2024, two critical things happened. The first is that stablecoins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses. And there's an image here that starts to show that. So independent of crypto volatility, what you saw were stablecoin usage just rising up and to the. That's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024, the second. And this data is still just trickling in, but it's an incredible stat. Stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions. That summed to $8.5 trillion of transaction volume. If you compare that to Visa over the same period, it was more than double Visa's transaction volume. So I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return.
- [29:10]
TiVo
That's a fascinating stat and, you know, as exciting as it is, and obviously I want you to break that down. I think the first thing that comes to my mind is this is why your traditional banks don't like crypto and have been so anti this stuff is because those type of transactions. He said it right there. As you're taking away from MasterCard and from all these, you know, credit card companies that partner with these banks that take these, you know, fees, we've all been to the small business that has, you know, a discount for cash. And that's because they're tired of paying these high processing fees for these credit cards. And, you know, so that, that's definitely one use for stable coins if it is something that starts to be widely accepted. But we had a great interview yesterday with our friend Chris from Coin Fund that's going to come out in a couple weeks. And you asked the beautiful question, you know, how if stablecoins are going to grow at this rate, how can you capitalize from it? Because it's not, you know, again, never investment advice for you personally. But you can't invest in a stable coin like a crypto or a stock and hope it goes up, right? It's stable. So, you know, with this, with this news, Brendan, how are you, you know, looking at how to play this and what are you looking for in 25?
- [30:24]
Brennan
Yeah, you know, it's not as easy as just investing in Bitcoin or Ethereum, right? Because you're right, these, these stablecoins don't really move, but there's a variety of ways that people can capitalize. Number one, the protocols that run these stablecoins can be tradable. You know, you look at a number of these, right? You know, I Think, you know, Maker has their new, I think it's called USDS or Sky, which is was Maker. You look at, you know, some of these other ones. You have usdc, which is run by Circle. You have Tether, which is done, I think last year it did something like $10 billion in profit. And you can fact check me on that. But we talked about that as well. Just saying, you know, people don't realize how much money is being made through some of these protocols, especially when it comes to stablecoin. I mean the number one protocol in terms of profit last year was Tether and it just blew everything else out of the water. And so when we're looking at capitalizing on this, I'd say number one, look at the protocols that are running or the projects that are running these stablecoins, because sometimes you can invest in those. Number two, look at the groups that are running these stable coins. For USDC we have Circle. That's a way to do it. I think another thing that you can do and look at is just defy, because if, if stablecoins expand in that way, then what that will do is arguably increase the market share of defi, because that's the whole point of, of stablecoins being able to, to be used in a financial manner that is like the term definition of decentralized finance, aka DeFi. So I think we can look at the defi sector and them getting some more love as well. So whether it's the projects that run these stable coins, whether it's the companies behind them, maybe it's just looking at stablecoin yields as well. Because one of the other questions that I asked is, you know, with a company like Tether, that can do, you know, all this money in profit? I think last year they did two and a half. Actually let me pull this up. Last year they did 365 days. They did 2.75 billion in revenue last year or in the last 365 days. So when you have companies pulling in numbers like this, I ask the question, can we ever see profit sharing for something like this? Because what it would do is it would encourage not only retail users, potentially institutional users to come in here and they know, hey, if they're producing all this revenue, I can get a piece of the pie. It really encourages people to be using these stable coins for more transactions because the more they're used, the more profits there are. The more profits that they're shared, the more yield that you earn. And it's just like a company, right These companies, these stocks that do more and more revenue, more and more profit, the better they do typically, you know, generally speaking, the better the stock does. And, you know, maybe they pay higher dividends, maybe they just appreciate in price, but there's a variety of outcomes. And that was kind of my question. And, you know, that's something that I think we can view as a possibility, but for the time being, you know, there's not a whole ton of that. So I don't want to rant too much about it, TiVo, but there's a lot of different ways that this can go, and there's a lot of different ways that one person could capitalize on this, whether they want a more passive, a more active, or, you know, maybe even just looking at new and up and coming protocols that are really interacting with this stuff as opposed to the big names that are already pretty zoned in on the sector.
- [34:07]
TiVo
No, it's a great, it's a great rundown of the space, which I know, you know, a lot of people probably aren't as familiar with how profitable it truly is. But I think the summary of, you know, basically everything that we've just talked about there is that crypto adoption is undeniable. And BlackRock put out the numbers that, you know, crypto adoption is outpacing both mobile phones and the Internet. And so, you know, not, not a big graphic by any means, but just to visualize it, you know, we put together this little graph and, you know, you could see it's like mobile phones, this was to reach 300 million active users. So mobile phones took 21 years, the Internet took 15 years, and crypto has taken 12 years. So crazy, you know, it feels hard to digest that when you're in the space like us. And so obviously everybody has their own crypto journey of, you know, the interest. Learning what it is to interest to maybe trading to then learning to the. Everybody has their own crypto journey. And I know you and I have been in it for, you know, a while now, so it, it is interesting to see this, but it's almost hard to digest because it, it makes it seem like we're still, we're still early, but the, the earliness is outpacing the biggest technology releases or adoptions of, of our lifetime as, as young adults, right. I remember, you know, when I would want to play with my friend Greg across the street. My mom would make me call, take the house phone and call Greg's house phone and his mom would answer and I'd have to, you know, hey, Can Greg come to the phone? And then now, you know, my nephew is watching Netflix on a cell phone at a restaurant. And so that, you know, the speed of that in the matter of 20 years is insane. And so we have, we have. If that's where mobile phones are today, where's crypto gonna be when it hits that 21 year mark, 10 years from now? If you break it down in your own context of your own mind of learning and adopting these technologies, it's fascinating to think maybe we are that early.
- [36:21]
Brennan
Yeah, it is fascinating. And that's a funny story. You know, I. I even remember back in the day hopping on the house phone, calling up my buddy's house phone and trying to see if they were there. And that's just not something that we have.
- [36:34]
TiVo
Dial up the Internet. So that was the phone story, then the Internet, like the first Internet. I had an aim. And you'd go on after school and play games or, you know, aim your friends, but then your mom would yell at you to get off because she had to make a phone call.
- [36:47]
Brennan
Oh, yeah. Or it's like downloading something. Or someone was watching a show and you couldn't watch your show. Or someone was playing a game and you can't play your game. I remember that so vividly.
- [36:58]
TiVo
So it's like the rate of adoption and the rate of the technology getting better and better and better is still in front of us, which is exciting for this space.
- [37:10]
Brennan
Yeah, no, it is, it is. And, you know, I think we're only going to continue strong from here, and we'll, like, we'll look back years from now and we'll be really amazed at how far I think we've come, much like we have with the Internet. You know, we take a lot of it for granted these days, but, you know, here we are 20 years later and from kind of like the big dot com boom. And, you know, now it's an everyday part of our lives in every way. You know, whether we're in the car, whether we're out at a store, whether we're on vacation at home, work, relaxation, you name it, is an everyday part of our lives. And I think that we could look back maybe 20 years from now and see how blockchain is, in some fashion, an integral part of. Maybe that's finance, maybe that's other stuff. I think we're going to have to wait and find out.
- [37:59]
TiVo
Yeah. And to continue on the adoption train, this week, we celebrated the one year of the Bitcoin ETF going live. And so we have From James Safart, friend of the show, we have this beautiful little tart that he cooked up through his Bloomberg terminal to showcase how IBIT was basically inflation adjusted as well. The best performing ETF launch of all time in one year. Is that how I'm reading? Am I reading this right, Brendan?
- [38:35]
Brennan
Yeah, I mean, yeah, they saw record levels of inflows and you can see all the different ETFs there. The big standout was, was BlackRock, right? I mean, BlackRock just pulled in crazy amounts of money, or rather, you know, assets and converted it into Bitcoin here. And you know, Fidelity wasn't too far behind. You know, they were another big player. But it's impressive. And even when you stack it up against some of these other ETFs and some of the other performance, it just blows everything else out of the water. And so you can see iShares on top and then you can see like QQQQ, which is one of the most popular ways to invest in NASDAQ from Invesco. Then you can see some of these other ETFs are out there as well. But you know, right up top, you have Bitcoin, you have, or, excuse me, you have Bitcoin from BlackRock and then you have Bitcoin from Fidelity. And they're both just paving the way and they broke a lot of records along the way. So I think it was by far the most successful ETF launch in history. And it's not even close, I think, you know, I believe, and again, someone might have to fact check me on this, but I believe that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF alone was. You're not even counting the other ETFs. Like that makes it the most successful ETF in history. And I think once you add all the other ETFs in, it just is icing on the cake at that point.
- [40:08]
TiVo
Yeah, no, I think that is what this chart is showing. So that's what the inflation adjusted number is. So qqq launched in 99, for example, so absolutely awesome. And the good news is that the QQQ now will be partially putting its funds to MicroStrategy. So obviously the QQQ is still a huge ETF with tons of inflows for the nasdaq. Just, just exciting to look back on. And basically, you know, right. Right when we started kind of doing these every day was what we talked about before was a year ago, or not every day, but every week. And this was a super exciting week to break this down. And there sure was Actually an interesting talking point might be to say that we remember there was a big sell the right around this time when that happened and didn't make sense to us. We were like, this doesn't make any sense at all. So we, you know, we gobbled that up and kept moving forward. And so, you know, maybe there's other sell the news events, you know, happening with Trump, but, you know, it's hard not to be bullish with the incoming pro crypto president and pro crypto administration. And the number one thing that the pro crypto administration is going to do is to end the Gary Gensler era. So one, one more time, one more time for you, Brendan. Your favorite clip.
- [41:36]
Chamath
I didn't know he was that unpopular.
- [41:40]
TiVo
Let me say it again.
- [41:42]
Chamath
On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler.
- [41:49]
TiVo
Whoa. I, I'll say this. We've, we've given that clip tons of play and, and it still hits. It still hits. I think that'll good. Yeah.
- [42:04]
Brennan
And we might have to play it one more time next week because, you know, obviously Gary took notes of that and you know, with, with Trump coming in on the 21st, Gary said, hey guys, I'm gonna resign on the 20th, the day before Trump comes in. I am going to be taking my leave and I'm going to be stepping down because he knew that if he didn't, he would be getting fired the very next day. So, you know, we talk about it again. We don't want to wish ill will on anyone but this guy. You know, he has been someone who has done so much damage and stunted the growth of the crypto space for years now, put a blemish on it, all sorts of lawsuits. They're even coming TiVo, we were joking about them yesterday. The SEC still going after people in his, in his final days in, in office. But, you know, it's going to be a big turning point. The confetti cannons are ready. You know, don't be surprised next week if you join in and there's confetti raining down because we are ready to see all these crypto companies like Coinbase, like Robin Hood, like Kraken, and all these even defi protocols that have been terrorized by the SEC under Gary, you know, see a lot more love. So we're excited for it. We're excited to see where crypto goes. And Gary is almost out of here. We just got a few days left and the crypto market is responding to that with, with this price rally. They're saying, hey, we know that we're entering into kind of a new era. And I think that's also kind of a contributing factor as to why we're seeing some upside.
- [43:42]
TiVo
Yeah, I think we're gonna have some Wells notices evaporate, and the safe outlook for non random Wells notices for crypto companies will be a thing of the past. As long as everybody's doing things the right way and within the structure that our cryptos are. David Sacks is gonna set up for us. But we are just a couple days away. By the time we record this, we will have our first crypto president in the White House. And there's tons and tons of chatter about what he will do. And, you know, I think we both agree that probably odds are that it's going to take time, right? It's going to take time for everybody to get in the office and get, you know, situated. But, you know, we love the Internet and we have a ton of fun on it. And there's just countless amounts of what executive orders will Donald Trump do on the first day? And so we thought, you know, as a fun end of the show segment here, you know, we'll talk about it, you know, we'll talk about what we're hearing, what we're seeing, and then maybe make a fun prediction. We can review it next week on the show. So, Brendan, what are, what have you been seeing and what do you think could be a day one crypto executive order for Donald Trump, the first crypto president?
- [45:05]
Brennan
I think the biggest day one, or dare I even say week one. You know, there's a lot of important stuff going on in the world, but I think in the first week, or maybe even in the first month, we see a couple orders around. Number one, all these lawsuits, all these Wells notices, getting a lot of those removed. He's made it clear that he wants to inspire growth and promote crypto companies in the US So I think a lot of those crypto related companies in the US Are the ones that have been getting hammered as a result of working with crypto. I think a lot of those are going to be the immediate ones that see relief. Then, you know, maybe some of these companies outside the US they're going to be secondary, but I think the crypto related companies in the US Are going to be the ones that see the immediate relief from some of these lawsuits. I think that's option number one. I think option number two is we start immediately looking at the idea of a bitcoin strategic reserve. That has been very clear. So I think that is the next thing that we can start to look at. And, you know, I would say that I don't see that being like a day one thing, because there's a lot that goes into that. I mean, that's a big deal to come out and say, hey, we're going to buy a million bitcoin over the next couple of years. Like, that is a really big decision to make. So part of me believes that won't happen on day one. But people are looking out there and they're saying, hey, this is actually a real possibility. So, you know, maybe it is the case. Maybe he just comes out and he does something more generally bullish for the crypto markets. Maybe it's an ease in regulation. I know one of the other big points, and I'll make this the third possibility, is that we come out and we change and I forget the name of the exact law, but there's a bill out there that limits how companies have to hold bitcoin and say, hey, if you hold, you know, 1,000 or $100,000 worth of crypto, you have to have $100,000 worth of cash equivalents. So you need to have this one to one ratio to offset the potential, quote, unquote, risk of crypto with a whole ton of cash reserves. I think that's going to be one of the other big things that changes because it discourages companies from owning crypto. You know, say that they want to go and they want to get a million dollars of bitcoin. Bitcoin. Well, then they have to have a million dollars of cash reserves in addition to that. And it's just kind of a pain in the butt, you know, I mean, TiVo, imagine if you wanted to go invest $1,000 into a stock, and the stock brokerage came back to you and said, hey, we'll let you buy $1,000 worth of Robinhood, but you have to add an additional thousand dollars above and beyond that to your account. You'd be like, well, I don't want to invest $2,000. I want to invest $1,000. And so it's been a big pain in the behind for. For people up until this point. So those are the top three orders that I think are the most likely to see at the beginning of his presidency. I think it can either be regulatory easing for the companies in the US that have been involved. I think it can be bitcoin strategic reserve related, or I think it can be, you know, the latter.
- [48:17]
TiVo
Yeah, I think everything's on the table. And I'll tell you why this came out Yesterday, I believe, is that there's. To kick off inauguration weekend, there is a crypto ball to celebrate Trump's pro crypto policies, hosted by David Sachs, the AI and crypto czar. So it's gonna be Friday night and tickets are going fast for the first ever crypto ball. I mean, he's gonna do something. I mean, he's gonna, you can't back away from it now. So the people that said, you know, a lot of people on the campaign trail were just like, oh, he's just saying that to get your vote. It looks like there's some actions coming in. And again, I'm no political science major. I actually think I failed that class in college, believe it or not. But from some limited research, I think the actual bitcoin strategic reserve, to buy new bitcoin would have to go through the House and the Senate. But I think what he can do under executive power is the existing bitcoin that the US Government has from Silk Road and, etc, he can actually sign that into a strategic reserve. So it's not necessarily buying any new bitcoin off the jump. It's just saying, hey, we have this bitcoin and now we're transitioning it from, you know, wherever they have it now on their balance sheet to, you know, a strategic reserve asset. So you know what, I'll go out there on a limb and say that he's gonna, he's gonna do this on, on day one or the first week and you know, a nice little Oval Office press conference, maybe David Sacks will be in there, you know, who knows? Anything's on the table. This guy's a showman and, and he's a negotiator, Art of the deal. He's been out there saying everything which way about buying Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal and whatnot. So yeah, I, I think there is going to be some big news the first week just because he, he knows that, you know, the crypto, the crypto space is behind them and wants to, wants to see him deliver. So I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's that's going to be the first big move is a bitcoin strategic reserve with the existing stuff on the balance sheet, Jim.
- [50:26]
Brennan
And I think it's fair, I think that any of those are viable options and we get to find out we don't really have to wait that long. The wait is over, the change is coming and you know, hopefully prices continue to kind of rally off of all these positive catalysts. So the future's looking bright. If you can't tell from everything that we've talked about today, let the one takeaway be that we are optimistic. We think the space still has a long ways to go. There's a lot of great stuff that we still need to talk about. And when we're looking at the future, you know, really kind of zooming out, you know, what could happen in the next day, the next week. We could be volatile. We can chop up and down. We've seen that there's a lot of volatility. I mean, just in the last two to three days we've moved $10,000 up and down. So could we continue to see a lot of volatility? Absolutely. But once we start zooming out to the bigger picture here, I still think it's really hard to make an argument that things are bearish. And so we're looking for higher prices, we're looking for new all time highs on bitcoin. We think that it's going to happen this year. In fact, if you watched our video from a couple of weeks ago Talking about our 2025 predictions, you know, all of us are looking for, you know, borderline a 2x, a 3x, a 4x 5x, depending on which analyst or which one of us talked about it. But there is a lot of good stuff happening.
- [51:46]
TiVo
Shout out to Bryce.
- [51:49]
Brennan
And we got Bryce the Bull leading us. But you know, that's why he's the leader, that's why he's the head honcho is, because he is, he's the wisest and you know, he had some, some big predictions and I don't think that he's necessarily wrong. I think they're all grounded in, in really solid data and analysis. So time will tell. We're going to continue to look at everything, we're going to continue to analyze all the news and the charts and everything else so that you all don't have to. So all that we ask here is that if you like the content that we are putting out completely for free on YouTube and everywhere else, check us out on some of our other sources. You know, leave a, like, leave a subscribe, leave a review for us and if you really like the content, then check out some of our other links. You know, check us out at Cryptation, which is a great crypto community that we run. You're going to get a lot more of a deeper analysis over on those sources. But we got a different, a lot of different ways for you to get plugged in. So we hope everyone continues to watch and we're going to see all of you at the same time, same place next week.
- [53:05]
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- [53:16]
Brennan
Hey mom, you seen my toothbrush? I'm almost done with that.
- [53:22]
Verizon Ad
Oh, maybe too close. Trade in an additional term supply. See verizon.com for details.
- [53:34]
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