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TiVo
Everybody. Welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And what an episode we have for you. We have not one, Brendan, we have two. Breaking news. The new Fed decided. They said it was going to be February. Wrong. It happened this morning. Polymarket odds did not sniff this one out. We're going to break that down real quick. And Brendan, I hope you are safe from the Silver Bear market. There is blood in the streets and the color of it is not red. It is silver. Silver bleeding out. Gold bleeding out. The easy, easy trade of the year. And said, everybody said gold, silver, copper, safe haven, safe haven, safe no more. Absolutely bleeding to the floor. Almost 20, 25, 30% worth. Going to get up the charts with Brendan. We're going to look at the technical analysis. This is the crypto trade alert and the Friday episode that is live for you all. If you are joining us on YouTube, we really appreciate it. Brendan, welcome to the show and happy Friday.
Brendan
Dude, what a time to be alive. What a time to be in the crypto market. Welcome back, everyone. It's good to have you here and happy freaking Friday. Sorry, if you can hear a little bit of noise in the background, little bit of, I don't know, it looks like yard work going on out there, but we're going to make it through it. TiVo, you're right. What a move. Over the last 24, 48 hours, everything, I mean, everything spilling to the downside, gold, silver, crypto, even the stock market, you're seeing a big old turnover and there's just a handful, like so many different news catalysts that we got to bring up and talk about and everything else. Two of the big ones, I mean, the silver market, the metals market, which has been like the go to, kind of meme coin like rise that it's seen here recently, coming crashing down today. We've been covering the metals and what that has meant for the crypto market. We'll talk a lot more about it in today's episode. But you know, I think the real kind of primary catalyst, the big talk of the town, which is what we're going to kick off today's episode with, is the new Federal Reserve pick because Jerome Powell, AKA Jpow, as we like to call him over here, he's on his way out this year and he's going to be replaced by what? Well, actually, you know what? I won't spoil it. TiVo. I won't spoil it. Maybe I give that to you, but man, he's going to be getting replaced. And it looks like his replacement will be, number one, very pro Bitcoin, and number two, much more focused on cutting rates. Now, there's been lots of concerns. You know, hey, you know, is he going to, you know, how's the Fed gonna look? Are they gonna be more focused on jobs or inflation or cutting rates or hiking rates? And there's all sorts of fears. And usually when a new Federal Reserve chairman gets elected, the markets like to test them. That means that there can be some choppiness, there can be some volatility. That's one. That's something that we want everyone to be kind of braced for. And although we are announcing or we're finding out who the Fed chairman will likely be right now, they're actually not going to enter into office until about halfway point of this year. So probably May, June, July looks like it's going to be the actual time frame where there starts to be that transitional period. And that should start around May, and then maybe we see it finalized within, I would say, 60 to 90 days from that May point. So, man, lots to go over to you. I'll hand it back to you and we'll kick it off here with the Federal Reserve new.
TiVo
But yeah, yeah, we'll pull up polymarkers. We were covering it this week. We had you on, we had Brian on. And we've been kind of charting this where we talked about how Rick Reeder, the Bond king from blackrock, came. It kind of came out of nowhere. And if you're looking at the. The YouTube here, you could see that I believe Rick Reeder is going to be the yellow. So the yellow at one point he became the favorite here about the last week of January. Kevin Warsh was the favorite in the mid January, and then Kevin Hassett was the favorite early December. So you can see here that there was, you know, talks of this person, that person. Nobody really had the lead, but I, I find it fascinating that Kevin Warsh got it and not how he got it. I think he was always in the running. It was the timing of it because Brian and I covered that Trump on Wednesday. We were doing the live Fed show and Trump tweeted out like, oh, I'm going to announce this in February. And kind of my take with Brian was last week, I was like, listen, he's not happy with pal, so what will he do? How will he make it reality TV? My thought was they might announce it like at 225, five minutes before Jay Powell comes out and does the press conference and so we took the, we took the poly market odds. It wasn't that day, it was before the end of January so it was like at 20% odds or something. So we took that live on air. So that was a little, little betting market winner if you guys are, you know, consistent listeners to the show. A little fun there. And then Brian got the over on tariff mentions so I think it was like 15 or more tariff mentions live. The mention markets. Brian hit that. So successful day for the boys in the betting markets. But yeah, Kevin, Kevin Warsh will be the new Fed or at least proposed. Like you said, it's got to go through the process of getting approved and there's going to be a lot of, you know, the politics of this is going to kind of drown out and people are going to be opposed to it. So but overall I think I can kind of pull up a tweet I saw which I thought kind of broke it down. It's like, hey, who is, who is Kevin War? So he's a. Out of Morgan Stanley. He worked at Morgan stanley for, from 95 to 2002. Education background Stanford and Harvard Law. He was the White house NEC from 2002 to 2006 and he was actually on the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2011. So he was through, through the Fed during some hectic times and a lot of liquidity during that time as well. Right now he works at Stanford, is post Fed, Stanford lecturer to Queens Capital and a board member of Coupang Inc. Which actually funny enough Brendan, I know what that company is. They're, they're the Amazon of North Korea, which is a little fun fact there. 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TiVo
Kevin War strengths Monetary policy expertise Wall street background He's a harsh Fed critic and has a hawkish reputation, so I think he's less less interested in necessarily flooding the market with QE and more kind of strategically positioning rates to allow the free markets operate. So he's going in there probably with an eye that he wants, you know, growth up and rates down, which, you know, seems to be the administration's want as well. But again, we've said on the show many times it's not one person that makes this decision. The market kind of as a whole decides where the bond yields go. It's just kind of how the Fed operates and tees up the monetary policy of the whole thing that lets the bond market react. And I think overall pretty, pretty solid reaction today. The markets aren't going crazy. He's somebody that's, you know, again, working from Morgan Stanley. He's been around the markets. He's a market friendly, quote unquote, market friendly Fed. So they're gonna like that. And definitely, I think the, the market's history has shown. We covered that in a previous episode where, you know, each new Fed person usually kind of gets a little bit of a test from the markets to see how they'll react. So just, just really interesting. It's, it's something that, something that we're going to continue to cover. It was my kind of piece on the end of year show with you and Bryce that, you know, my, my favorite thing to watch is going to be this storyline. And so, you know, January 30th, we're here 30 days in and it's already starting to unfold and it's something that we'll cover for the rest of the year as well. But any, any thoughts on Mr. Warsh?
Brendan
No, well, just that it seems like he, it said a second ago that he has a reputation for being hawkish, which he has, I believe, in the past. But in recent years he has kind of shifted from being more hawkish to being more, as it said, just like skeptical of the Fed and mission creep and other things. And he's kind of reversed his stance to becoming more dovish and saying, hey, yeah. And it says it actually right at the very top there, which is going to be one of my main points is that he thinks the Fed should concentrate on inflation, which, like, if you look at where inflation is right now, it's pretty under control. And so if you're going to have a focus on like, hey, where is inflation? Well, according to truflation, it's at 1.2%. If you look at it from the Fed zone standards, which is still somewhere in the 2% range, it's fairly under control. And I think everyone's going to have a different expectation of what under control is for inflation. And it'll be interesting to see what his expectation is when it comes to that, I think the other thing of where he's been like a harsh critic of the Fed and mission creep and bias and other things. I think this helps position him into a much more probably dovish person in the current state because if you, if he was hawkish, then he would want to go in and hike rates and do things like that. But it looks like he's like a nice kind of in the middle person because that's what everyone's thoughts were is, you know, hey, is he going to be overly biased in one direction or the other? And it looks like I would at least say that Warsh is probably the most in the middle of all of the possible candidates. You know, you had some who are like, all we want to do is we don't care about inflation. And then you had, you know, probably other people that weren't being looked at. They were like, all we want to do is hike because that's where we think that the actual problems are. And then that's what it comes back to for me here is he seems like, you know, obviously, is he going to probably lean towards cuts? Yes. Or else he probably wouldn't have gotten the nomination in the first place. But the other side of it is he looks like he's fairly down the middle and probably one of the most in the middle people that could have come out. And the big takeaway and why we're all here is we're all fans of crypto, right? And he's a big fan of the crypto market. And I think we got a little clip or graphic to show on this. But he's pro bitcoin. He likes bitcoin. In fact, I think I saw a clip of him saying, if you're under 40 years old, Bitcoin is your gold. And he said a lot of other things as well. So let's go ahead and roll it up here. TiVo.
TiVo
Yeah, we got, we got about a 2 minute 37 here. I'm going to trim that down to about a minute. It's not that exact clip that you referenced, but him talking about kind of the technology around bitcoin and how he views it. So let's take a look.
Kevin Warsh (clip)
Securities that go under all sorts of names, many if not most of them, are not worth what they're might be being traded for. So what did Charlie say and maybe his, his pal Warren say? There's the innovators, the imitators and the incompetence. They're real innovators that are happening in and around that new technology and what I would try to impart towards businesses and bankers is that the underlying technology that Mark showed me in that white paper, or tried to show me in that white PA paper, it's just software. It's just the newest, coolest software that will provide us an ability to do things that we could never have done before. Can the software be used for good and evil? Yes, both like all software. So I don't cast dispersions like that. If there's a final point, it's these technologies are being built here. I don't just mean on Stanford campus. I believe in the United States and the world's most talented engineers from China and Europe and everywhere they come to the United States, United States, even now, to try to build this stuff. And my view is by building it here, that gives us an opportunity to be more productive and create something very special over the next decade.
TiVo
Pro bitcoin, pro technology, pro usa. That is basically the mouthpiece of this administration, is with the crypto capital of the world. And again, that's an older clip that we found. But it's interesting that you're kind of packing this administration with people that have the same view, right, Moving into the future of whether it's bitcoin, whether it's crypto, and. And we had an awesome interview that one time. I don't even remember, I don't remember the exact project it was, but it was the professor out of Stanford who literally was in his garage building stuff, and he came on the podcast and was telling us his story. So it's just, you know, this is the people that he's been surrounded by at Stanford, you know, pro technology, pro building, and pro doing it here in America. And so I think we'll, we'll do our best. You know, as this story continues to dig up more crypto talk for the new fed president here, President 2B. And I wouldn't be shocked if there's new sound bites of him as well now that he's going to be thrown into the public eye. There's going to be a lot of new sound bites that we're going to be pulling as the year goes on.
Brendan
Yeah, spot on, man. And just we're going to continue to keep tabs on this. I mean, obviously there's a lot of questions. People have a lot of questions. We understand that. We're going to continue to cover this as more information comes out, so make sure you stay tuned. But I wanted to give a quick little shout out here to the YouTube channel, which is popping 150 of you listening live in on just YouTube alone right now. So it's great to see you. Let's give a quick little shout out to a couple of the people that are being active chatters. We have Carl, we have P. West. It's good to see you saying, hey, guys, why the plunge? That's going to be our next segment. We're going to open up the charts. We have Shibonosuke, I think is how you say it. We got gk. We got a couple of names that I can't pronounce. Maybe 8.8Z points. Good to have you. Everyone else in there, Brady, the real fu. Good to have you as well. We got a couple of questions and so.
TiVo
And Grant. We got Grant there with the pirate flag. Grant, friend of the show. Brady, friend of the show. Big weekend in Tampa. The pirate flags. The pirate flags are a symbol of Gasparilla. So we're flying the Jolly Roger this weekend here in Tampa. And before we move on to the charts, right now, we're going to do the technical analysis with Brendan. And if you do me a favor, we got a ton of people in the live. On the bottom right, you'll see our logo. Give it a tap, hit it, subscribe, give us a thumbs up. It really helps us grow the channel and continue to do this free content. And then if you're interested in more, check the links below. We've got our first alerts and our free book and the Crip, you know, Crip Nation vip. So check those out. But Brendan, let's pull up the charts. I mean, let's just jump to it. Do you want to go right to silver here? Can I get a one day on silver or you want to go to Bitcoin first? No, that's. That's Darth Maul. That's a Darth Maul candle, we call it.
Brendan
Well, this is like a. More like a Darth Vader candle more than a Darth Maul. A Darth Maul is where you have like both sides, right? So you have like the candle body and then you have like a big wick and a big wick and that's your Darth Maul. This is more of like a Darth Vader where it's just, you know, your little handle and then a giant red lightsaber coming out. A little Star wars reference for any of the listeners out there. But Silver, what was and has been like the meme coin? I mean, look at this chart. TiVo was like a meme coin until really today. A little bit of yesterday. This thing came in topped out at 121ish and it's down over 32% since yesterday. And it's still going. Silver getting annihilated, Gold, not quite as bad, but pretty gnarly too. And the thing that you have to understand, Silver was a $6 trillion asset. I think gold was 30/something trillion or 40 trillion around in asset and total market cap. For assets that are worth trillions or tens of trillions of dollars, to be moving double digits, let alone money, almost 30% is crazy. It is extremely rare to see assets of those size move that much in a single day. But these things have been ripping nonstop for a while now. So they're coming back in, they're cooling off. The big question on everyone's mind is since they have been sucking liquidity, sucking capital, pulling everything away from other industries, especially crypto, will this allow that money to flow back into the crypto market and back into alternative investments that are maybe more risk? On one of the popular conversations that we've seen from, you know, the current administration today and the new federal chair pick and things like that is talk more about, oh, strong dollar, weak dollar, and that's kind of caused this run between metals and bitcoin and it's caused, you know, some of the fluctuations that we've seen. And so as you started hearing more strong dollar talk, you've started to see and the new Fed chair pick, because of his stances, you started to see metals roll over from that. And so again, the big question here is now that you're getting the rollover from metals which have been sucking liquidity away from everything else, can that go back into bitcoin and can that go into the general, more broader crypto market? And I think that is a real possibility here. I think that's very much on the table is that you can see money go away from met potentially into crypto. Now, is that a guarantee? No, but I think it would make sense because the way that I've explained it before, a lot of people who are metals are also fans of crypto. Metals have had this ridiculous run in the past. You've seen correlations between when gold runs and metals run and how bitcoin and crypto performs. And you've seen money flow between the two in the past. Now what you have is the people that are taking profits on metals and they have a couple of options. They can either say a, I'm going to take my money out and I'm going to put it into the US dollar, which has all sorts of fears and stuff happening. Right. There's just a lot of FUD around it right now. And on top of that you do have some inflation, which historically metals investors are kind of against. So I think that one is possible to some degree. But is it largely where all the money is going to go? I think it's unlikely. You also have people saying, okay, well I'm going to take profits and I'm going to put it into the stock market, which is coming off of all time highs. Right. If you go and you look at like the, the spy, for example, if we just look at SPX coming off of pretty much all time highs, it's falling a little bit today, but for the most part it was at it, you know, what, two days ago. So they could say, okay, well I could take my money and I could invest in the stock market at all time highs. Is that possible to some degree? Yeah, you're probably going to see some money flow there. And then there's the third option which is going to say, hey, I could take my money and I could potentially look at bitcoin, which metal investors are historically a fan of. And they could say, okay, well, bitcoin's down, you know, over 30% from its highs and it's down relative to a lot of the rest of the other assets that we've looked at. So despite seeing where the dollar's at and despite seeing where the stock market is at and other things, they're going to say, hey, bitcoin's probably the best bang for your buck style discount given its kind of current circumstance. And so because it's down, people are probably more willing to some degree to look at an asset that is large like bitcoin and discounted then maybe going and saying, oh, you know, it looks like the perfect time for the stock market because it's at all time highs or maybe even given all the FUD around the dollar, I think there's, there might be some sort of hesitation. So, you know, is that a guarantee? Not necessarily, but I think it makes sense at least from the way that my brain works, that you should at least see some sort of a shift as metals weaken and potentially give some strength into to bitcoin in the crypto market. And so when we look at where we're at right now, this is something that we've talked about on the show TiVo. We said, hey, you know, we're honest with the viewers. You know, we try to stay as honest as possible. And one of the things that we've seen here recently is like the failed breakout. And that's been one of the big things that I've been talking about. If you're part of Crypt Nation or you know, newsletters or anything else that we kind of do over here, that's been one of the big things that I have been just nervous about. Because what you've seen so far is this big move down, kind of bear flag up, right? That's what a rising channel is in, in technical analysis is this is a bear flag, which is usually a continuation pattern. And the continuation here would be, well, downside, chop continuation, further downside. And I think that's kind of exactly what we're seeing here. So the, the big question is, well, hey, kind of what's next? And I think that there's, there's a decent argument to be made that bitcoin can continue to see a little bit more downside. Now, does the metals market immediately start flowing in the crypto? Maybe not immediately. My kind of thought process here, and one of the big things that I'm waiting out for is maybe a push lower on bitcoin. I think if we can push below 80k, then we can start talking about the potential that bitcoin is bottomed. And my thoughts for that are twofold. Number one, if we look at the relative strength index, which I love to look at and reference, it's not quite at a lower point yet. It's actually about to enter into the oversold territory. What I would love to see, and again, this is just a perfect world. I know we don't really live in a perfect world, but what I would love to see in a perfect world is some sort of higher low on this relative strength index. Even if we get a lower point in price. Because what that would be called is bullish divergence, where you're getting a lower low price, but a higher low on the relative strength index that would, you know, show us that there is bullish divergence happening. And so that's one of the main things that I'm watching for is saying, hey, it's actually okay and very, very possible and on the table for us to push a little bit lower somewhere into the 70s. And then I think we can talk about the idea of a bottom kind of somewhere down in here. We've come down into the level before. This used to be our prior all time highs turned it into support where we bounced off of that previous all time high level right in here. I think it is possible that we kind of come down here then potentially can talk about the conversation of a bottom out. But right now this is just a big breakdown, bear flag followed by, you know, further breakdown. And so I would be somewhat cautious. You know, people have come and already asked us, hey, Brendan, you know, should I look at leverage? Should I dump all of my dry powder in right here? And number one, I can't give you financial advice. You know, we're not financial advisors, you know, all the disclaimers and disclosures that, that we have and go over. But secondly, you know, that's not the way that I'm looking at it. I think crypto is a massively undervalued where it's at. So am I. Am I okay, dollar cost averaging a little bit here? I am. I think crypto, especially bitcoin, is massively undervalued with where it's at right now. However, that doesn't mean that it can't go down a little bit more and it can't mean that there's better buying opportunities. And so I'm waiting to see some of the signs on the charts and some of the signs on the technicals and the data and other things to say, hey, you know, this thing's actually in the process of bottoming out, which we just haven't quite seen yet. There's a lot of early indicators that could say, hey, you know, a bottom looks like it's getting near and close. But as for the bottom actually being in, there's still a couple of factors that we're waiting on. And so I don't want to be too bearish on this. Again, I don't want to come in with too much of a negative attitude. Again, I am doing a little bit of DCA or dollar cost averaging down here, but I'm still a little bit hesitant. I think it is a definite possibility. Right. There's a decent chance that we push down a little bit further, somewhere below 80k in the 70s. And I would leave that on the table saying, hey, that's still possible here. And so that's something that I'm looking at. And when you look at, like the rest of the crypto market tiva, before I hand it back to you, it's the same story across a lot of these large caps. Ethereum over here, you have a move down followed by another bear flag via a pennant. This is a breakdown. You broke beneath these prior moving averages, came back up, rejected them here. More downwards continuation. Air flag on E over on Solana, move down sideways channel. Break down in the further lows. Xrp, a little bit of A different chart, but it's kind of breaking to the lowest point that we've seen, you know, minus this. Wicked. The lowest point that we've seen since November of 2024. BNB similar situation. BNB seen this twice. Move down bear flag, move down, bigger bear flag. And it's starting to break lower here. So you're seeing kind of the same story just in different ways across some of the largest market cap cryptos where you're having these bear flags or bearish consolidations that tend to work as a continuation move. And since we are continuing from the down side, you know, upwards moving down, that seems to be where the trend is, is moving at the moment. And there's an old saying that hey, the trend is your friend. And so while the long term trend is very clearly to the upside. Right. We're not arguing with that. I would agree with that. The long term trend is to the upside. I'm more saying, hey, let's, you know, zoom in a little bit more and say short to midterm trend. We have been in a downtrend for bitcoin for the past, you know, probably four or five months. For altcoins, I think you could argue that they've been in a downtrend for around a year, a little over a year actually. And I'm looking at the wrong chart. But if you look at the others charts, so saying every crypto outside the top 10, so the mainstream altcoin market, you know, this is topped out back in December of 2024. And so I'm looking to really see some turnaround signs on these as we come to some very interesting and kind of important levels.
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Brendan
I mean what an earful. TiVo sorry if that was a little.
TiVo
Bit of a rant but no, beautiful done. I mean it's the, it's a big day. The live is here. 100, you know, 70 plus people right now. We appreciate everybody Eva fusters in there saying the metals crash was expected but temporary obviously for a hedge against money printing, which we talk about all the time and then saying, you know, silver, copper has, you know, use for the chips and all these, you know, the future of kind of the use of metals in these microchips and the AI processors and the robots and etc. So it is, it is a fair take. My, my thing was I'm gonna pull this up. Actually Brendan, I think it's important to show everybody we've brought this up and I haven't brought it up in a while, but just total assets by market cap. And just to see silver down and hit that 30 this big of a market cap is, is truly a block. It's just a block news. I mean this is breaking news. If you saw, think of this, if you saw Alphabet, Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, anybody In this top 10, anybody in this top 20 even or 50, if anybody lost 30% of their market cap in a day, I mean I, I don't know what would cause that. It would be un, it would be unbelievable, almost unprecedented. I mean that's Covid. That's Covid like drops like that Covid week, right where stocks were dropping 15, 20, 30, 30, 40 a week. Like it's, it's insane how much happened today in the drop in silver And I was kind of talking to you pre game is like hey, I put on, you know, a little bit of a short, nothing much. But it comes down to what we've, what we've said on multiple times on this program, which I think is credit to us. When we're going over and we're kind of talking in the momentum moneymakers and when our time comes and the crypto bros were up and we had our time plenty of times over the cycles, right? And we see some of these coins, whether it's a blue chip, whether it's. Or we go into the momentum money maker side and see those meme coins that hit the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10. You know, if you hit a 10x and you think this is going to go on forever, rarely when you see a chart that looks like a hockey Stick like you showed us in the beginner with silver, the hockey stick eventually comes back down. And it doesn't mean that the run is over. It doesn't mean that silver is going down forever. And I think that's. It's a good dose because the. The timeline was really negative, right? The crypto timeline, which was what we cover, and kind of on the outside looking in, and I went to Costco the other day and. And this lady, like, you know, was walking towards. I had my little card. I'm trying to figure out what. Again, this lady comes running in and just starts grabbing all the silver bars for, you know, $999 a thing. And I'm looking at all these people, they put out a fresh stack of silver bars. Gold was already sold out, and everybody's collecting the silver bars. And then I was going out to the bars the other weekend, and my Uber drivers telling me, you know, hey, you gotta. You gotta buy silver. You got gold, you got silver. Silver, you gotta buy silver. And I'm sitting there and I'm like, this feels like when bitcoin was at 120, when. This feels like when Pudgy Penguins was ripping. This feels like greed and chill guy. And I clicked and I was like, man, we gotta. We gotta go open up a short on silver. Like, it's. It's that type of euphoria. And it was a great. I think it was just so interesting to. It might have been the first time ever, kind of, but we saw a little bit of the AI trade. I kind of felt the same way about, like, pounds here and all that when that was flying high. But it was interesting to really be on the outside of a trade because, like, me and you said, yeah, we have a couple, you know, part of portfolio, small percentage, whatever. But I'm not a huge metals guy. And so I felt left out of this. And I'm like, man, did I. Do I need to go buy some? And then I saw these actions of the Costco lady, you know, hitting me with her purse so she could get the last silver bar, and the Uber driver telling me to buy silver. And I was like, interesting, because this is how the. This is how crypto turns everybody into an expert when we're flying high. And so I wrap up with this. I've been doing. Trying to think, and, you know, you're the technical analysis guy, and we have our researchers, and I'm more of like the social media storyline guy. And I'm trying to think of, like, what's my thesis on bitcoin right now because I really do wish it was rallying with the metals. I think we all do, right? And it just hasn't. And it kind of, it kind of reminded me of Alphabet and Apple and that's why I'm keeping this up. So Google and Apple, last year Google had that Gemini mishap, right, with their AI where it was producing bad AI images and bad this. And everybody said Google has lost the war of AI. OpenAI is going to gobble up Google search. Their business is done, their AI is crap and their stock cratered 30% to the T. Google's over. It's done. Apple doesn't invest in AI. They don't have an AI to put in their phones. They're behind the AI race. Apple is done that exactly a year ago today. That storyline started and then let's fast forward a year. What's happened. Video has gone down a little bit. Palantir has gone down a little bit. It used to be anything that was partnered with Open Air was the bell of the ball and going to make trillions of dollars. Now if you're associated with a, with OpenAI, they're like, well, they have a lot of commitments. Are they going to be able to go come through on these commitments? Microsoft got hit yet? I don't know if we could pull up a chart on Microsoft real quick while I keep this up Brand, I think Microsoft is down like 10% yesterday, 12% because of all the commitments with open AI. And so these storylines grow, these storylines change and so, you know, you can get poisoned if you're so short term looking at the storyline of, well, you know, it's not. Bitcoin's not rallying with precious metals. Bitcoin's not rallying with printing money. The storyline's null and void. And it's like that's the short term version of the storyline. Look at that gap down on Microsoft, a top six company by market cap, by the way. What do we got, Brennan?
Brendan
I mean from what the high of where it was at on Wednesday ended up going down 13% to the downside the very next day and rallied a little bit. But I mean, you're right. Rare to see those kind of moves. I read that. I think it was what 45% of their backlog was to OpenAI and people were questioning those commitments. Yeah, I mean, listen, the market is, I don't know if fickle is the right word but like, I don't know, that's just the way the market is, is last year you're Right. Everyone was against Google and they lost the war. And no one's going to use Google Search anymore. Everyone's going to use OpenAI's ChatGPT.
TiVo
Google now has the best video AI software in the world, VO3, they have the best image editing AI software, Nano Banana Pro. And so it's like, it's just a storyline. I guess. The one thing I'm trying to hammer home for the listeners is we try. If you go back and you're a listener and we've said, hey, the fundamentals of the news and the fundamentals of the regulation, and we even have some more of that to talk about later in the show, it's all there. The price action isn't there. And that's sometimes that's just storyline driven. We're not on the right side of the storyline. And this metals trade felt euphoric. It felt risk on almost, right? It's like, oh, we're worried about debasement, we're worried about this, we're buying. So it's like, no, this is greedy. This feels a little greedy the way this was trading so high, so fast and then. But you needed a correction to prove that to be true. And I think we got that today.
Brendan
Yeah, no, I think we did. And listen, it doesn't mean that metals can't head higher. Right? Did they need the cooldown? Absolutely. They were ripping face. So they're going to cool down. I mean, listen, market pullbacks happen and everything and they happen to crypto, as we notoriously feel, because crypto is so volatile. Right. Historically. But yeah, I mean, you know, we'll continue to cover this, we'll see what happens. But market pullbacks happen and they're normal. You know, one of the things that you were looking into, TiVo here, is about all the shorts that are piling up against Bitcoin. And quick little reminder here, before we actually get into this again, we see a lot of your questions. We're not ignoring you. I promise we're gonna get through the show first and then we'll come through and answer some of these questions and maybe do a little Q and A at the end. So again, we see your questions, we see everyone commenting live, and we will wrap back around to those. In the meantime, if you could, and if you like what we have to say, you know, hey, hit the subscribe button, hit the like button and we'll make an imaginary statement that says it gives you priority if you subscribe. I can't back it up, but I'm just gonna throw that out there and act like it's true.
TiVo
Yeah. We appreciate everybody being here on a Friday. Thank you so much for joining us. But I did, I did a little research, shout out to Rohi, kind of our go to guy when we're trying to dive into some of the, you know, the information, the research. He was helping me kind of. I saw some tweets about how the, you know, the bitcoin shorts were kind of outpacing the longs clearly with the price action. I just wanted to make sure and verify it so we could give everybody information. So Rohit and I got together this morning and we're looking at this and basically, as you can see on this chart, the green here is the short liquidation leverage. The red here is the long liquidation leverage. And you know, I mean, just as you can see the lines here and here, it's, it's completely different. So we, we basically got it to about, about a two to one ratio, maybe a little less. But for every, for every one long there's two shorts, maybe a little less than that. But it just kind of shows you where we are. And again, the price action has been negative. We're grinding a little bit lower it seems and the shorts are piling and piling on. But then there's a liquidation range. And so if this again the price the shorts are and the bears are gonna have to keep grinding this lower because if it does break back up to I think like 92, 94 area, like that's the, the match lights and then the shorts liquidate, it turns to market buys. And like the kind of the catalyst is there for the springboard back towards that 90 to 100 level. And we don't have a crystal ball. We say that all the time because nobody does. But it's that we say this a lot. Like you don't want to be on the same side of the boat as everybody else. Everybody was just on the silver boat. I' that that boat was one sided for about a couple weeks. And you saw what happened today with a 30% correction. I hope you got in a lot lower and you weren't buying within the last, you know, week because you got absolutely dunked on if you're on the same side of the boat. And so I don't think the boat's too heavy with the shorts yet. But again, at 2 to 1, it's getting that way. You know, the, the majority is, is in, at least in this liquidation map is, is on the short side. So it's something to watch. Could be a catalyst Higher. And then this one I thought was really interesting with all the panic. Raoul Paul kind of tweeted this out is, you know, we're underperforming. We're so far away from everybody else. It's, here's the relative of the NASDAQ 100 compared to Bitcoin. And it's, yeah, we're down. We've been down before, around 2020 here. And then it, look at this. Last time we were down and shoots back up. And then 20, 23, we're down, shoots back up. You know, these charts seem to seem decently correlated. It just Bitcoin has more volatility, which is what, you know, we know and we like because in our, in our book, volatility brings the opportunity. So didn't know, you know, as our, as our resident trader and technical analysis person. Any thoughts on, on these topics, Brennan?
Brendan
I mean, I think there's, there's a lot of truth to them. The shorts are piling up, they're getting more comfortable. And you see the same kind of thing in the bull market, right? I mean, let's flip this idea on its head and say, hey, in a bull market, they get overconfident, they get overextended, they get over leveraged. And we saw the effects of what happened when stuff like that piles up, you know, back in October and at other points as well, at all time highs. Well, the exact same thing can happen when shorts get overconfident and shorts get overextended and shorts get over leveraged. You can see these inverse events that are there inversely related to something like October 10th and the liquidations that we saw there. You can just as easily have all of those shorts get liquidated and cause a massive short squeeze which sends price to the upside. In fact, oftentimes that happens and the shorts do get racked and you do see price explosion. So, you know, just keep in mind here that, you know, everyone always likes to think about it from, you know, one end and neglect the other. But it's like, no, the bears here are probably getting close to being too comfortable. And when they get too comfortable and too overextended and too over leveraged, that's usually when the big day of reckoning happens and you get them wiped out and then they're forced to cover their positions and buy and other things. And so I think that's, that's worth watching. And it's a really good catch by you when it comes to this chart. You know, there's, there's lots of conversations about Bitcoin compared to Nasdaq and stuff. And I always get asked, you know, why isn't it correlated or should it be more correlated? In recent, I would say in recent weeks, in recent months, even the last year or two, you've started to see bitcoin decouple from Nasdaq. It is matured as an asset class and crypto has as well, and you've started to see it decouple slowly. So there are points in the market where I think it will follow. Right. There's points where it won't. But I would even say that overall it's probably good to not have this like one to one correlated to Nasdaq that make it kind of strange and scary. But there's going to be. There are points in times where it is. That's just something that I've noticed and you can kind of see it in this chart here. I do think that again, there's, there's a bit of a game of catch up. If you look at why bitcoin has crashed and why it's so low and some of these other things that are happening, there's a couple of reasons. And this was a chat box question from someone in the YouTube chat, so shout out to you. But I think it comes down to a couple of things. Number one, the lingering effects of the October 10th liquidation event. That has been the biggest catalyst, in my opinion. It's the largest single day liquidation event ever. It's bigger than what we saw with Terra Luna and FTX and Alameda combined. Like all these big events, you know, I think even bigger than Covid combined in there as well. And it was just like math. I think it was all of those combined several fold. I mean, it was ridiculous how much money was liquidated. Close to $20 billion in a single day. And so it's silly to think that we would brush that off in a week, a month, multiple months. At first it looked like we were going to shrug it off and then the lingering effects and the ripple effects kind of came through and now it's like, hey, you know, we're still feeling the effects of that. And a lot of the people, most of the people who were long, they were the ones wiped out. And so it's going to take a little bit of time to collect those people who want to go long again. I mean, they were, they were liquidated, they were wiped out. It's going to take them a little bit of time to get that money back and they get comfortable enough to go back into that same kind of position because again, they were overextended. I think the other things that you have here are, you know, the, obviously the metals market, which has been sucking liquidity away as well. And then when you look at other kind of external factors, there is the clarity act getting pushed. Right. You know, everyone thought that was going to go through that might be getting pushed. You know, there's some stuff that's getting voted on in D.C. that seems to have a little bit of FUD around it as well. And so there's all these little things where it's like there's just a little bit of fud. And so when you ask yourself the question or when you ask us the question, hey, why is the crypto market down? It's a mixture of those. And then on top of it recently it looks like the thing overnight that kind of pushed the markets down were talks about strengthening the dollar and that seemed to have been the big one. Right. That was the big reason that I saw was like, oh, we're going to strengthen the dollar and the DXY and historically that has been a bad thing for bitcoin's price. But there's just a few comments made about that. But a couple days prior there was opposite conversation saying, hey, we're going to weaken the dollar. So it's like, listen, that's just politics. So you're going to get it both ways. We don't really talk about one political side or the other over here. We try to stay out of the politics because that's just not our spiel and it's not what we like to do. But the truth of the matter is, you know, listen, there's always going to be fud. There's always going to be back and forth and that's just the way that it goes. But you know, a little bit of a roundabout answer here, Thivo. I thought it all kind of connected in some way and that's how I'm viewing the markets.
TiVo
Well, the markets are quite volatile. A question just kind of, while we're on the topic from Craig here is gold volatility and how does it influence bitcoin prices? Well, traditionally gold, you know, if you, if you zoom out on the charts, at least the one that I've seen, it's gold kind of runs up and then bitcoin follows, you know, again, in a long term vision that could happen. I pulled this one off of X. This is from, let's see here, Talos.com just for a quick answer to Craig. We didn't have time to Verify this, but just, you know, want to be respectful and thankful for everybody in the live. Today is kind of just a bitcoin rel relative activity chart here. Brennan, you can explain this maybe better than. Than I can, but bitcoin compared to gold, obviously bitcoin's in a drawdown, but, you know, maybe right around, you know, again, we don't have the lines on the chart and our metrics that we usually do inside your software, but, like, looks like we're kind of around a support line and that. That kind of makes sense in my mind at least. The way the storyline is unfolding right now with. With a pullback in precious metals. And I just saw. I'm getting alerts on my phone, literally, as we're live here. And this is a little producer magic is. I'm seeing 33% down for. For silver. It hit the 33 down mark, which ties for its worst day in history. So if you bought silver in the last week, you're caught in a 33 drawdown in the worst drawdown in Silver's history, and you were sold by the Uber driver that it was a safe haven. So there's just. There's a lot going on. There's a lot of volatility going on. And again, this is our saying of zoom out, right? Hey, zoom out. And kind of my rant on the storyline is there's different storylines that picked up steam, and as hard as it was to be on the sideline and have kind of declining price and go through the October liquidation, biggest liquidation in crypto history. Now we're seeing the biggest liquidation in Silver history. Volatility is high right now. It's just the way it is. And I think our time will come again. And we're learning lessons from our times of our own, you know, cycles where we've had highs and lows. And now I'm even learning lessons being on the sideline and watching the, you know, the precious metals trade. But I want to transition us into some. Again, some bullish fundamentals. We'll go. We'll go over to. I'm sorry, did you want to. You want to say something?
Brendan
The gold chart. Yeah, let's go to the gold chart. Real fast that you pulled up a.
TiVo
Second.
Brendan
Because someone was asking about this, and, like, what it shows is it's saying, hey, how does bitcoin's price measure relative to gold's price? And it puts a ratio here because usually we say, okay, well, what is the price of bitcoin first divided by the price of the US Dollar. Now, obviously, the US Dollar is always going to be one. So it's always like whatever the one US dollar is divided by or underneath the price of bitcoin. Up here, this is saying, okay, well, instead of, what if we divide bitcoin by the dollar, what if we divide bitcoin by the price of gold? And that's what this ratio represents, is saying, how do we measure how much one bitcoin is worth, measure compared to an ounce of gold? And so that's what this chart represents. And it can show us that, hey, there's these peaks and valleys where at times these two assets can be relatively overvalued compared to one another, or maybe undervalued, depending on which side you're looking at. And so what this ratio is showing us is like, hey, we're getting back to a historic low area where, you know, this is the lowest price that bitcoin has been valued compared to gold Since, I believe, 2023, you know, shortly after the market bottomed and stuff. And it's saying, you know, hey, if you compare bitcoin to gold, you know, this is probably, you know, one of the more undervalued areas. And so, again, I think it kind of feeds into this idea of where are the gold people most likely to take profits from? Well, I think it makes sense that they're most likely to take profits from gold into bitcoin and transition those. And this kind of works hand in hand with this very chart. So. And we had. Who was asking about this? Craig. I think it was Craig.
TiVo
Maybe a few others were asking about this legend, Craig. And as. As we. Yeah, so thank you, Craig, for the question. And then as we. As we continue on back to kind of, hey, at least for crypto, yeah, the price action isn't where we want it, but the bullish fundamentals continue. So I bring up BlackRock. These are some hiring, some jobs that the BlackRock HR department is looking to fill. And I think the, you know, the most interesting part of it is vice president, director. But what's the job? Digital assets product strategist. Where? San Francisco. Managing director, N.Y. digital assets product strategist, Boston. Digital add as product strategist, N.Y. what does that mean? These product strategists, they're designing, they're building products, and again, whether they're going to launch new products, bundle together existing products, it's all based around digital assets. And all these products are going to be given to the financial advisors who are going to go sit down with your grandmother, your grandfather, Your father, your mother and yourself to say, hey, we're blackrock. Yes. A decade ago, bitcoin was bad. Now it's good. We've got the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, we've got the Ethereum BlackRock ETF. We have all these new digital assets, product strategists, because that's where the future is and that's where we need your money to go. And so this is kind of the groundwork of hiring, creating these roles and building these products over the next, you know, one to five years. It's, it's something that they're spending, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars on creating. And it's not going to go away tomorrow. It's not going to go away with a little bit of a price action, with a little bit of a correction. If anything, they're gobbling up these assets and building these products to then sell it back to you. That's how it works. So follow the big money here, folks. I think this is a really exciting kind of update to see these type of jobs growing and not only in one place either. Obviously San Francisco makes a ton of sense, but I thought Boston was cool. Boston, obviously, New York, but you know, it's starting to branch out for BlackRock here.
Brendan
And keep in mind, they are a 14 trillion, $14 trillion asset manager. They are the largest asset manager on the face of this earth. The amount of assets that they have under management is more than most countries are worth. I mean, it's crazy. Their total assets under management is bigger than the entire crypto market several times over. So they are huge. And I say this because they set the standard for what the rest of the financial world does, because they are the largest. They are so big, they set the standard and their competitors are already doing the same. Right? You look at a lot of the other big asset managers and banks out there and other people that are in the same boat, they're all doing the same thing. They're trying to get in on the action. And so, yeah, the best is yet to come. Thibaut. They don't believe this is going anywhere. We don't believe this is going anywhere. What else we got?
TiVo
Well, we got two more quick hitters here and just an absolutely electric live today. We really do appreciate it. One final ask at the bottom, right, if you're new here, hit the logo. Give us a subscribe. We do this multiple times a week and we're having so much fun with you today that we hope you'll come back. Give us a like, hit the like button, it just really shows us that we're doing a good job and keep delivering this fun free content with you guys because we love doing it with you two quick hitters. And then we're going to do some questions. So if anybody has a question out there in the chat, start throwing it in the question box. We're going to get to it in the next couple minutes. We're going to answer as many as we can because we really appreciate you guys being here on a Friday afternoon. So throw some questions in there. But first, Fidelity, Fidelity Wall street continues to choose Ethereum as Fidelity announces a USD back stable coin on Ethereum. Interesting. Again, the Ethereum storyline is just like the rest of crypto, it seems recently, just non stop bullish news. The price action is not following. But Fidelity, the Latest, you know, $5.2 trillion in assets under management, chooses Ethereum for its backside Stablecoin. And these Stablecoin products are really starting to pop up at a fast rate.
Brendan
They are, you know, and I think again, kind of goes into my last point, what we're not seeing these things slow down. I think we're only going to see them accelerate. I think we're going to continue to see more of them. BlackRock is who we were just talking about. Now we're talking about Fidelity and them choosing Ethereum and building and launching their own USD backed Stablecoin and this stuff. And guess what?
TiVo
People are bearish.
Brendan
People are bearish. And they're saying, hmm, you know, maybe we shouldn't get exposure, maybe we should sell this stuff off. Again, we talked about some of the bearish stuff that's happening in the short term. I cannot emphasize and reiterate this point enough. When you look at the long term vision, these companies, these asset managers, these banks, they are not building for the short term, they're building for the long term. And so that's the kind of the lens that I look at the crypto market right now is saying, hey, could it go a little bit lower? Do I want to put all my dry powder in right here? Maybe not. It seems a little risky. However, I want to be getting some form of exposure down in here because I do believe in the long term. And if I believe in this like Fidelity and blackrock do, then I think it's safe to say that it's, you know, potentially at a discount when we're down 30, 40% from the highs. You know, I would just say, hey, like look at this through the, through the same lens that JP Morgan and blackrock and Fidelity are. And they view this as a long term play, which is what I would view Bitcoin and Ethereum as, as well.
TiVo
Oh, couldn't, couldn't agree more. Couldn't have said it better myself. And to wrap up just some fun, I mean we've been talking about how the fundamentals are bullish, but the price action has not been Brendan and there's been numerous people, everyone from Matt Hogan down to Tom Lee himself and said, hey, we're actually in a bear market and we're coming out of the bear market. That was the kind of the storyline going into the end of the year and into 2026. And I was like, I don't know, are we in a bear market? It feels like price out maybe, but like nobody was talking about the bear market. You know, six months ago and I finally capitulated. I, I was like, you know what? We are in a bear market because Tom Lee's riding the bus. It's a work. I saw this picture just. Tom Lee's got a great sense of humor, man. Cause he just said snow knocked out the train. So morning commute today is by bus. And I was just like, man, if Tom Lee's riding the bus, that I think that might be, we might, we did like crypto bagel and stuff. We might need to put Tom Lee riding the bus on, on our Ethereum chart. And, and that, that might, that might tick like a local bottom for us. Say no, Tom Lee rides the bus.
Brendan
Tom Lee riding the bus is almost on my Ethereum chart. In fact, I'm working on it as we speak. Tom Lee rides the bus. Boom. It's done, it's solidified in place. We now know.
TiVo
So I, I lived in Union City for a year in my younger days when I worked at IBM. People forget former IBM are here for one of the first two market AIs in the world was Watson. I was a leader in the Watson community bringing AI to the world before people were hyped up about it. I took the bus to work. I was a young professional. I took the bus and not fun, not as you can see. Tom Lee doesn't even have a seat. So these buses into New York, man, it's. Everybody gets in, they pile them in. It's like your sardines in there. You got to squeeze in. And I just was laughing thinking like, man, what if somebody is, is a huge like Tom Lee guy and they're all in on Ethereum or bit mine and they're down 50 and just looking at the guy that's been shilling them. Bit mine in Ethereum and he's standing in the bus next to him. I thought that I was dying looking at that. But we, Tom Lee, friend of the show, we love him. Kevin Stanley's in the chat. He's giving us rockets. We're going to the moon. Kevin Cayman, Cayman's in here. 8.0.1. Eva Fuster, Craig's in here. We had Grant, we had Brady, we had Frank. Matt Beavers is in here. It's unbelievable. Matt says love following Yalls Channel and listening to every episode. I'm also a part of Crypt Nation VIP and Brendanson's Technique technical analysis course. Matt is a legend for that. So let's see. Yeah, let's see. We got a question from Evan here. Let's see. We're doing this off the cuff here. When is the Genius act supporting stable coins expected to affect relevant altcoins that have supporting infrastructure? I think that's a great, that's a great worded question. Again, we don't have the crystal ball here, but I think it feels like the market seems to be waiting for this Clarity act, which is going to be a little bit of a longer process than we think. It's like all these stable coins. I think people are building the foundation to get everything done technically, but to really pile in. I think there's a lot of people waiting for this legislation. So that would be my quick answer, but I definitely don't have a question. Crystal ball.
Brendan
Wondering what you're well, we saw some news about I think it was we didn't get to research enough. We like saw the news come out like minutes before we went live. And so we're like, all right, let's research this before we jump on air and talk about it. But something about the market structure bill passing the Senate. And so again, we're going to do some more research and probably come back next week and talk more in depth about what's happening over on that front. But I think you're right. You know, it looks like the Clarity act is getting kicked down the road a little bit. There's some disagreement about how it should be written and we've covered this in recent weeks. Yeah, here it is. Senate panel passes crypto's CFTC crypto regulation bill. So, you know, there is this happening and maybe some precursors that are getting set up. But what you have is that. Oh, okay, so here it is. Two measures would need to combine before passing before advancing to the Senate floor. Okay. So yeah, so yeah, definitely some stuff that needs to happen before then. But we'll, we'll wrap back about or we'll wrap back on this topic.
TiVo
When it comes to the politics stuff gets confusing just because again, I did take one class of political science at University of Delaware. Everybody does remember that if you're a longtime listener of the show. So I could be considered a political commentator in any world because I don't think too many people have expertise in politics. But there's, there's a lot of congestion, it feels like when it comes to passing actual big bills and big laws. And again, it's got to go from the House to the Senate. And then there's like, oh, well, the Senate is Republican so they can pass it. Wait, there's a filibuster so you need seven Democrats. And it's like there's, there's so many things about that that the actual inner piping of the politics of it is a little bit not where we focus. But there's been a lot of noise around, you know, Brian Armstrong coming out and like kind of taking his support away and then getting pulled back in, in Davos and saying, well, we're working on it. And then so there's a couple different things that I think are all just kind of coming together when it comes to the structure of how these things are going to get passed. And it's just interesting timing to see if it will get done before the midterms. How bipartisan is crypto legislation? I think kind of for the technology of it and the forward looking of making, you know, the US the crypto capital of the world. I, I think that is bipartisan. I think what the Democrats aren't going to like is, you know, let's be honest, the Trump family has made a ton of money from crypto and been in the right areas to make this money through legislation and their own businesses. So I think that's going to be a talking point of the other side of the aisle and something to keep kind of tabs on. But yeah, it's something that we'll keep researching and when the big breaking news happens and the actual movement happens of getting this stuff either done or, you know, yay or nay is, is kind of where the news breaks and kind of forecasting before that doesn't, doesn't work well because it's hard to, hard to gauge.
Brendan
Yeah, completely agree. Completely agree. Any other big questions? Maybe if I scroll back up to the beginning. Tiva, did any catch your.
TiVo
Just a lot of takes on silver. People are, people are still bullish on silver and gold saying, you know, it's just a correction type of thing. But again, I think that's the storyline of all these assets have gone higher. The S P's gone higher, the NASDAQ's gone higher, the Russell is now at all time highs as well. And it's, it's just these story lines. I, I really think my thesis on that Google and Apple take is more of what we're going to see going into the rest of the year is, hey, storylines change. Everybody says crypto's the, you know, the losers right now I think we'll be back and we'll have our day again. You know, it was, you can't lose on gold and silver and we're literally recording live and it hits the largest down day in silver's history. So again I think you got to do your research, you got to stay up to date in the knowledge and that's what we do this show for. And we have a lot of fun doing it.
Brendan
Spot on, man. Well, I think we hit on just about everything that we possibly could have today. Almost an hour long episode here of the crypto rundown. And like Thibaut said, guys, we love doing them. We love doing them. They're completely for free. And the whole point of these is that we can do all of the research beforehand, search everything from the fundamental and the technical side and explain it all and bring it to you completely for free. And the only thing that we ask in return is that you say, hey, if I like this, go ahead and hit the like and subscribe button. We do these every single week, multiple times a week, as well as different podcasts and market updates and YouTube tutorials on different cryptocurrency platforms and products and stuff. And we love bringing it all out. So again, if you liked it, hit the like and subscribe button. Thank you all for watching and I'll hand it off to T Val.
TiVo
Yeah, we got a fun week ahead. If you guys are new, check the community posts. I'll post when we're going live for next week, but other than that, it was a great week of content. Thank you Brendan for joining us. We'll be back next week with some interviews with Bryce and Brendan and we'll do some more lives. So thanks everybody for joining. Enjoy your weekend and we'll see you all next week. Wow, Kevin Stanley coming in late with a little super chat there. A ten dollar super chat from Kevin Stanley. Thank you so much, Kevin, friend of the show, Kevin Stanley. Unbelievable, believable way to end the episode. Thank you, Kevin. And we're gonna see everybody else next week. Bye Bye everybody.
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Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman
Date: January 31, 2026
In this dynamic Friday "Crypto Rundown," Bryce Paul (“TiVo”) and Brendan Viehman react to major market turmoil—led by a historic crash in precious metals, and the breaking news of the newly announced (but still pending Senate approval) Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh. The duo delivers real-time technical analysis on silver, gold, and crypto, explores the significance of shifting investor sentiment, and highlights pivotal developments in institutional crypto adoption—offering retail traders both caution and optimism for what comes next.
“It’s just the newest, coolest software…that will provide us an ability to do things that we could never have done before… By building it here [in the US], that gives us an opportunity to be more productive and create something very special over the next decade.” – Kevin Warsh (13:28–14:45)
“For assets that are worth trillions…moving almost 30% is crazy. Extremely rare.” – Brendan (17:43)
“This lady comes running in and just starts grabbing all the silver bars… and my Uber driver telling me, ‘You gotta buy silver!’... This is how crypto turns everybody into an expert when we’re flying high.” – TiVo (29:35–31:05)
“The trend is your friend. While the long-term trend is up, short to mid-term we’ve been in a downtrend for bitcoin at least the last four or five months.” – Brendan (27:06)
“This is the groundwork of hiring, creating these roles and building these products over the next one to five years. They’re spending hundreds of millions…It’s not going to go away tomorrow.” – TiVo (49:48–50:55)
“They’re not building for the short term, they’re building for the long term. …I want to be getting some form of exposure here, because I do believe in the long term…and so do JP Morgan, BlackRock, and Fidelity.” – Brendan (54:13)
“There’s a lot of congestion when it comes to passing actual big bills…The actual inner piping of the politics is a little bit not where we focus. …It’s hard to forecast before it’s actually on the floor.” – TiVo (59:46)
Warsh on Bitcoin Tech:
“It’s just software. It’s just the newest, coolest software that will provide us an ability to do things we could never have done before…by building it here, that gives us an opportunity to be more productive…” — Kevin Warsh (Fed chair pick), [13:28]
Metals Crash Comparison:
“For assets worth trillions…to be moving almost 30% is crazy. …If you saw Alphabet or Apple lose 30% in a day, it would be almost unprecedented—Covid-like drops.” — Brendan, [17:43, 29:35]
Market Psychology/Euphoria:
“This feels like when Pudgy Penguins was ripping…this feels like greed. …When everybody’s on one side of the boat, you get a 30% correction.” — TiVo, [29:35–31:05]
Bear Perspective & Opportunity:
“Shorts piling up…when they get too comfortable, too over-leveraged, that’s when the day of reckoning comes and you get them wiped out.” — Brendan, [40:36]
Institutional Perspective:
“BlackRock is a $14 trillion asset manager…bigger than most countries…they set the standard. Their competitors are doing the same—trying to get in on the action. The best is yet to come.” — Brendan, [51:41]
Narrative Cycle Reminder:
“Storylines change…Last year, Google had ‘lost the AI war’—now it’s back on top. You can get poisoned looking only at the storyline. Zoom out!” — TiVo, [35:52, 45:46]
Bear Market Spirits:
“Tom Lee riding the bus—maybe that’s the bottom! If your favorite bull is riding the bus next to you, maybe we’ve hit the local lows.” — TiVo, [55:14]
Bryce and Brendan wrap with optimism—despite brutal price action and historic volatility in both metals and crypto, the underlying institutional momentum, fresh pro-crypto leadership at the Fed, and rotation of market narratives point to a foundation being laid for crypto’s next cycle. Listeners are reminded to zoom out, stay vigilant, and not to let short-term sentiment or storylines distract from the bigger picture.
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