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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Recap of the White House Crypto Summit, The Market Downturn, & 3 Reasons to BE BULLISH!
00:52:18
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- [00:00]
Tevo
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Brendan
Welcome back, everyone, to the Crypto Rundown, where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. And today we got a very special episode in store for everyone. There's so much that's happening. There's so much that has been happening in the market. And of course, on the show, we like to cover everything that's going on to catch you all up to speed. So from the fundamentals in the charts to the technicals, or excuse me, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts, we spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And that's exactly what we have done today. In fact, this is going to be one of the longer episodes. We have two pages of notes packed full of things that we need to talk about. Going to be talking about the charts, everything that's been going on with the volatility of bitcoin, having these 20% moves up and down, up and down, constantly. We're going to be talking about some of the things happening on the traditional financial side and how that's impacting the crypto market. We're going to talk, we're going to be talking about some of the crypto specific events that we've seen here lately, such as the first ever White House crypto summit. We're going to talk about what happened there, what we heard, what we didn't hear, and what we really still have to look forward to, because there are a lot of catalysts beyond that. And then, of course, we want to talk about what's next and what we've accomplished this, this year so far and why we're still very, very excited about crypto, despite us seeing a little bit of an extended pullback. So of course, we are going to cover everything that you need to know. If this is your first time joining us, welcome. If you want to follow along and check out everything that's happening, all these charts that we're referencing on the screen, all these articles and videos and everything like that, then you need to go over to our YouTube channel. It's the Crypto 101 podcast on YouTube, and that's where you're going to be able to see all the videos that we're referencing on the screen here. So if you're coming in from Spotify or Apple Podcasts or literally anywhere else, you got to go over to our YouTube to get all of the videos and the charts and stuff that we're Referencing on the screen here. But before we dive on in Tevo, are we feeling, I don't know, I don't know about you. I'm feeling the energy. I'm feeling alive. And maybe that's because we're, we're having a little bit of a bounce here. But how are you feeling?
- [02:26]
TiVo
Yeah, feeling good. I think, you know, the lead up to the White House crypto summit was kind of like, you felt like the market was kind of in that downward trend, but it's been this market where you can't, you can't get out at the risk of, you know, missing one headline like that tweet on Sunday, right. And you see projects going up, you know, 20, 40, 60%. So it feels like, especially with this administration, whether you're in crypto or the stock market, you know, it's non stop. And I think the S and P has this rule and bitcoin has this rule of the 10 best days, where if you're not in, you know, these markets for the 10 best days, you're missing out on the majority, if not all the gains. So a good test this week, you know, with some downside action. Pretty, pretty violent downside action. And you know, everybody feels that. I know our team feels it and, and, but it's something that if you can digest and take and again, you kind of, you know, go come out through the smoke on the other side and you zoom out. You know, it's, it's an exciting time to be in crypto and I know that's why we're here. Although I will say, I know we have a ton of great, you know, we've been doing this live stream for a while. We're getting some, you know, reoccurring characters and friends in the chat. We haven't heard from one person in a while. And I feel like inverted investing is, is lurking around the corner. I know you remember that name. I feel like he's due for a big bombshell. Com comment because he didn't ride with us on the way up. He was quite the bear. But hey, you know what, what is it? Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. So let's dive into the news. We got a lot of it.
- [04:09]
Brendan
Oh, man, what a way to kick us off. But yeah, you know, we got bitcoin finally bouncing after hitting a low of $76,000,000, and that happened just yesterday. So for people who have not been following along as much, I'm gonna go ahead and share my chart here. We're going to Kick things off hot with the charts and check out what's been happening here with, with price action, because that's what a lot of people are concerned with. So if we kind of break this open, we can see that, man, bitcoin has been volatile. And I was plotting this the other day on one of my charts over here. But what we've seen is that bitcoin has just been constantly bouncing from resistance to support, resistance to support. We have a few of those over here just kind of referencing these, but this is what it looks like. On the daily time frame. We've been going from 100k down to 78k, back up to 95k, back down to 81k, back up to 92k, then back down to this new low of $76,000. And when we measure some of these moves, you know, let's just take 100k to 78k, that's a 21 drop. Then we rose from 78k up to 95k. That's a 22% rise. And we've just been doing this back and forth, back and forth from 92, 93K down to 76K. That was another almost 18 drop. And so there are these big double digit moves happening what feels like every week for the past couple of weeks. And so for a while, you know, we were chopping above 90k, above 100k and we were going back and forth up here. Well, now we're doing a very similar movement. Just we're kind of gravitating towards the downside. And what we see here on the bitcoin chart is that we are actually putting pressure to the downside. We are kind of squeezing down here with a couple of these moving averages. Previously, bitcoin was holding the 200 day moving average just like it was holding the 20 and 50 day. In the past. What we came over here, we bounced off the 200 day moving average several times. We moved all the way back up, came down, bounced off it again over here at the beginning of March, just like the end of February. And now what we're doing is starting to break below this 200 day moving average. And we're starting to close below it too. So, you know, whether you like the moving averages or not, I know it's not everyone's cup of tea. You can still say, hey, this is an area of support that bitcoin used to hold and now it's turning into resistance again. Whether you want to look at that as consolidation Support or the 200 day moving average, let it Be what it will. But no matter how you look at it here, Bitcoin is now closing below that previous support area and below the 200 day moving average. And that's a big area that I'm keeping my eye on here. Because what we've seen is that bitcoin has been rejecting a lot of these moving averages and they all are pointed to the downside. The 20 and 50 day moving averages have been resistance to the downside over in here ever since they started curling down. We started to see a pretty consistent rejection of them. Now we could be seeing again, keyword is could. Today's candle has not closed yet, but we could be seeing a rejection of the 200 day moving average as well. And that's leading people to believe or kind of think that, hey, maybe we could go into the low 70s, high 60s, where we have a little bit more of consolidation. So if we zoom out on this vrvp, which stands for the visible range volume profile there, or I guess let me explain this first because what this does is this measures volume by price. Now typically we look at volume and we say, hey, how much volume occurred in an hour? How much volume occurred in a day, in a week, in a month? That's the traditional way to measure volume, and that's why we call it volume by price. However, we can also look at it by volume, or excuse me, that's the traditional way to look at it is volume by time. We can also look at it by seeing the volume by price. How much volume have we seen at a given price level at a specific price level? And that's what we're seeing by the VRVP is how much volume have we gotten in some of these consolidation zones. Now these areas with more volume tend to be like big consolidation areas, areas of support or resistance. And the areas where there's not a lot of volume, well, that tends to be a lack of, of, of really support at all or any kind of resistance. That's where we can move more freely and in a more volatile manner. So when we have a volume point of control up here around 100k, well, we saw a lot of consolidation here when we saw this volume point of control around 70k, 65k. Well, we have a lot of consolidation in here. The fact of the matter is that we don't have a lot in between these two zones. So there's a solid argument to say, hey, bitcoin could go from around the 90 to 100k level back down towards this big volume point of control, maybe around 70k around 65k over in here. And that could be the next bouncing point for Bitcoin to find the bottom before it moves back to the upside. So I think no matter which way you look at this TiVo, whether we're saying, hey, long term, short term, you know, maybe we do feel a little bit more short term pain, I don't think it's impossible for us to come down towards this previous all time highs we have marked over here. I wouldn't be surprised if we came down here. However, I wouldn't be like heavily bearish either. In fact, I think that if we do get down here, that is going to be one of the most just perfect buy zones that we could wish for because not only do we have the previous all time high, we also have the volume point of control over here. And that's an area that I would be looking to really like heavily increase my bitcoin and potentially even my altcoin positions. So I am keeping an eye again, we need to see what happens here with bitcoin, how it's responding to some of these previous support levels, how it's responding to some of the key moving averages and if we do get a rejection, you know, I want to be surprised to see us come down a little bit lower. However, I would be very, very eager to see those prices because that is an area where I would want to do quite a bit of, quite a bit of buying. Something else that I've noticed over here is that bitcoin in recent days has been outperforming key indices such as the Nasdaq. And we saw this happen the other day, really the past couple of days when, if we look at Nasdaq's performance really over the last two days or so here, Nasdaq had a day where it was down about 4% and then the following day where it was down around 0.2%. Now if we go, when we look at what bitcoin has been doing during that same kind of time period and we open up the chart, so forgive me because it's a little, a little slow today. But what we can see is that first day where NASDAQ was down almost 4%, Bitcoin was down 2.6% the following day where NASDAQ was just about neutral. So it was red 0.2%, Bitcoin was green 5 and a half percent. And so what we are seeing here is that in recent days Bitcoin has been outperforming a lot of these key indices. Now in recent weeks we've spent a lot of time talking about this saying hey, it's not just the crypto market that's hurting here. As you can see from a lot of these other charts, the NASDAQ has been heading straight down since this year has started in an absolute free fall. We've seen similar things over here with like the US 10 if we're looking at like the, the 10 year bonds or the 10 year yields. We've seen other things with like the strength of the dollar which has also been heading down since this year started. You could say the same thing for like the crude oil markets. This has been heading down alongside energy and the energy sector. And you know, again we like to bring this up because it's not just the crypto markets that have been seeing a little bit of a pullback here. It's been just about everything. The good news here is that there's a lot of positive catalysts that we want to talk about. However, we did come across a really cool Data Point and TiVo, I'm going to hand it over to you here because you know, you were the one who brought this to my attention showing that there is a record level of shorts in the US stock market.
- [12:26]
TiVo
Yeah, I got two things. I actually found another fun little stat that I'll share after this but regarding the shorts. So this is from the Kobese letter on X and this has been, I saw this on X and then I proceed to see it on a lot of the business news channels. Basically the highest level on record ever for shorts. And so let me see if we can enlarge. There we go. So I mean this is going, this goes back look at like even, even 2020. This is the beginning of the pandemic over here. Like you can see, you know, panic and then obviously we remember the kind of the tech crash of 22, late 22 and then here, here we are now and I guess this, this was, this last point would have been in August with like the Nakai trade there. So basically I bet if you line these up with the stock market you'd see that these were viable dips. And again not to say that this is the exact bottom because no one can tell you where the exact bottom is. But the thesis is there's a lot of panic and when you see put spreads up this high, in my opinion it's that everybody's already panicking so you can't get ahead of the panic. You're kind of in your boat, you know, if you didn't get, get shaken out yet, I Think it's worth kind of gathering all the data and, and figuring out, you know, what's the best decision for you, obviously, because this is never personal financial advice for anybody, but we went through the panic. And I got another stat for you, Brendan, here. This one's for the S P, kind of, you know, tailing off what you just said. So this 20 day 10 correction for the S&P 500 is the 5th fastest in the past 75 years. The 5th fastest in the past 75 Years. Prior declines were labeled as knee jerk reactions as 100% of the time. Three months, six months, and 12 months later, we saw higher prices. So just to recap that. Sorry, go ahead, take it.
- [14:24]
Brendan
No, no, take it away. I got another one after this.
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TiVo
I was just gonna say, just to recap it. So we're saying this is the fifth fastest decline. So depending on how old you are, you remember a handful of them, I'm sure. Obviously the, you know, the housing crisis, the dot com bubble, I'm sure is in there. Co Covid's in there. And then probably something around 2018 is probably in there. And you know, just to say that, that, that we named, I just named three or four, and then this one's the fifth. So you're living through history. And again, it can, it can go lower. And I think what. We're going to cover it on the back end of the show. Like, why is this happening? We all kind of know it's just, it's a rocky political standpoint right now. That's, that's jarring the markets. And we're going to cover that later in the show. But, you know, I think it's just important. Again, we're always like kind of the Zoom out crew here. Zoom out, zoom Out. Like, if you're really feeling the panic now, like, you've basically already been through it. So don't make any rash decisions right now. Collect the data and make your own decisions. But, sorry, what were you going to add to it?
- [15:20]
Brendan
Well, I was going to add a chart from, from a fellow buddy named Joe McCann. And this is actually someone that we spoke to too recently here and, and.
- [15:31]
TiVo
Ironically, podcast just went out yesterday.
- [15:35]
Brendan
Yeah, literally just went out. And I want to share this chart because he had a really good post that I want to shout out. So give me one sec. We're gonna throw it up on the screen here. But what he was showing us is this. He said, hey, this is Covid versus now. In fact, let's make this bigger. He said, hey, this is Covid versus now. And the beta index collapse is even faster than what it was doing during COVID Except this time there is no Covid. We don't have any of those shenanigans. But this is what it's showing is saying, hey, this is happening faster than it did in Covid. And it goes hand in hand with what you were just saying, TiVo. Like, this is one of the fastest moves down. And I saw other people measuring this a variety of different ways, but saying, hey, the last 30 days of price performance, the last couple of weeks of price performance have been like some of the worst that the indices have seen in a really, really long time. Right? Because it has been just this, this free fall as we can see over here from NASDAQ, you know, the last like two weeks or three weeks, you know, I've seen almost a 15% retracement is pretty volatile. And I think that there is a little bit of an overreaction here. I understand people are afraid. You know, there's wars in the Middle east, there's wars in Europe, there is fears of trade wars everywhere and tariffs and all these things that are happening. However, a lot of that could be solved, you know, who knows, maybe a month from now, two months from now, like, we don't know, like all that stuff could be solved near immediately. And it is something that I think can get resolved rather fast. So when I'm looking at this and saying, hey, you know, we're collapsing faster than Covid, but there is no Covid, I have to think like, man, you know, what kind of an opportunity are we going to get? Because if we go back and we look at, you know, any kind of market during, during COVID and we look at what happened in the kind of V shape recovery that we had there, and I'm going to go back to 2020 for this so that we can see it completely clearly. But if we go back to 2020 and we see the kind of V shape recovery that we had coming out of COVID this is what that looked like. This is that Covid dip right here. We went all the way down, then we had a V shaped recovery. And then what happened after this was just astronomical upside. I mean, the chart, the chart speaks for itself where the actual Covid recovery of 100% looks just like a baby move. And it pales in comparison to what followed over in here. And then of course, we've made all of this look like a small move from what we've seen in recent weeks over here in the crypto. Market recent months, rather. So, yeah, I mean, a lot of stuff that is happening and you know, we have seen a lot of volatility, we've seen a lot of these markets kind of continue to shift and take a little bit of a downturn here. Maybe it's not over. Maybe we do see a little bit more. We just showed that on the charts. So I'm not saying it can't get worse and we can't go lower. However, the statement that I want to make here is my very clear stance. I think that what we get out of this fiasco, this, this conundrum, whatever we want to call it, whatever we are doing coming out of this, I think we are going to be presented with a fire sale opportunity. Not just for bitcoin, not just for one asset class, not just for tradfi. I'm talking about, for just about everything, especially the crypto markets. And we have all these catalysts that I want to talk about. You know, I won't get ahead of myself to you though, because I think the one thing that we need to talk about before anything else is this White House crypto summit that we had last Friday. Because this was a big deal, right? I mean, a lot of people have been waiting on this event. A lot of people have been speculating, hey, when are we going to get the strategic bitcoin reserve? What's going to happen at this crypto summit, yada yada. And we want to go ahead and summarize this because we know not everyone has a ton of time. Maybe you missed it, maybe you just want the spark notes version of what happened over there. So let's go ahead and recap this because the key takeaways, number one, like, who is there? Right? Well, there's a lot of heavy hitters from the crypto space. We have Michael Saylor, obviously from MicroStrategy, huge player. We talk about him a lot. Brad Garlinghouse from xrp, Vlad Tenev from Robinhood, Brian Armstrong from Coinbase, the Winklevoss twins from Gemini. And then we've had all these other leaders as well, people from the government, people from the crypto sector, people from all over the place, really, all around the world. So that was a big deal. We had all these heavy hitters from cryptocurrency and the government coming together on this thing. Number two, the bitcoin strategic reserve is now official. It was announced, it was signed and now it's put into action. So what does this mean? Well, last Thursday, the executive order was signed. On Friday, the actual Crypto summit itself happened. And the way that this bitcoin strategic reserve works is that the US Owns a bunch of bitcoin. At the moment, we own roughly 200,000 bitcoin. And at points in the past, we've had up to 400,000 bitcoin. And this is something that I saw that David Sachs, the. The crypto czar and the AI Czar, came out and talked about. And he said, man, at one point in the past, we had 400,000 bitcoin, but we have foolishly sold off half of that, so now we only have 200,000 left. And he said, this is has to have been one of the silliest moves that we have done, because that 200,000 Bitcoin that we got rid of has now costed the US $17 billion. He went on to say, hey, we sold this for, you know, a couple million dollars. Now it's worth over $17 billion. And think about what we could have done with that. So we foolishly sold. We think that it can have more upside, and that's not going to happen again. So the point of this bitcoin strategic reserve is saying, hey, we're going to take that 200,000 bitcoin that the US already has, we're going to put it into this reserve, and the US Is now done selling bitcoin. This is a big deal because in the past, we've had all sorts of fears of, hey, the US Is going to be selling bitcoin again. They're going to be dumping onto the markets. They would go through Coinbase to do this. And it was this. This constant, like, overlooming fear because 400,000 bitcoin makes the US or it made the US one of the largest holders in the world. So it's a just astronomical amount of money. And that's no longer a fear that people have to. To be aware of. So that's another big deal there. The next thing that we saw was that there was a suggested plan to acquire more bitcoin at no cost to taxpayers. And I believe that this is being spearheaded by Howard Lutnick, who is the Commerce Secretary, and Scott. Was it Scott Besson? Am I saying that right?
- [22:33]
TiVo
Yep.
- [22:33]
Brendan
And he is the treasury sector secretary. And so there's going to be a continued effort to say, hey, we have 200,000 bitcoin. We've had 400,000 in the past. I don't see why we can't get back to at least that area. In fact, there's other bills out there, like Cynthia Loomis has proposed saying, hey, we should actually accumulate another million bitcoin over the next four to five years. So we'll see. There are plans that are being suggested about how we can acquire more. And that's another thing to, to look out for beyond this. Trump came out and said, hey, we're going to be auditing our altcoin holdings. We're going to find out what we have, how much we have, and after we identify that, we're probably going to put those into the crypto reserve as well. So they're saying, hey, we own all these other altcoins. We're going to figure out exactly what's going on there because it seems a little bit messy. And then we can transfer those into the reserve and we don't have to worry about selling those off. And I think some of the bigger news is that they came out and they said, hey, the weapon, weaponization, and that's the term that they used. They said, the weaponization of the sec, it's over. We're not going to have to worry about this anymore. The SEC has been coming after so many different crypto companies. Anybody that wanted to dabble, whether it was banks, institutions, actual crypto projects, exchanges, you name it, they were just fearful. They were fearful that the SEC was going to come after them for dropping a feather. So the weaponization of the SEC is over, Operation Choke Point 2.0 and is also over. And finally, they want to welcome US Based crypto businesses back into the US and they even had the sba, which stands for Small Business Administration, there to talk about it and say, hey, we want to welcome people who are large businesses, but also small businesses to come to the US to create crypto. And we're here to kind of help you along the way. So I found that as a really reassuring thing, is that they didn't have just these crypto leaders here. They also had people from like the SBA and other, other parts of the government saying, hey, we actually want you to do business here. So that was all the positives that I heard talked about. The things that we didn't hear about, unfortunately, were things along the lines of state level adoption. Right? We have this strategic bitcoin reserve at a federal level. However, what we didn't hear about is what's going to happen at a state level with bitcoin, because there are dozens of pending crypto reserve applications in a bunch of different states. The other thing that we didn't hear is about tax breaks. This is something that a lot of people Were talking about, are we going to have cryptos that are exempt from taxes? Are we going to have crypto companies that are getting tax breaks? You know, are we going to get rid of capital gains tax on crypto? I saw a lot of people talking about this. Me personally, I think we talked about this either a week or two ago, TiVo. But I was saying I don't think it's likely. I don't think it makes a lot of sense for us to get rid of crypto taxes. I think at best, maybe it would be for crypto projects or crypto companies that are doing stuff in the States, maybe the cryptos that are inside the reserve. But I just can't see a world where an entire asset class that is worth trillions of dollars gets rid of taxes. You know, there's just too much money to be made there for the government. I don't think it makes a lot of sense. Yeah, would inspire growth, but I think lowering taxes is fine. But completely getting rid of them, at least from my perspective, it doesn't make a lot of sense. If you're the government again, I would love it. I'd be happy as a clam if we did that, but I just don't know how it logically makes sense. So we didn't hear anything about that. And then the final thing was, you know, there's very little talk of. Of altcoins at all, which came to maybe some more people's surprise because that initial tweet from Trump on Truth Social was saying, hey, we're going to make all of crypto great, such as Solana, XRP and Cardano. And those were the three that were listed. There is almost no talk about altcoins in this meeting. There is constant conversation around stablecoins, which I think we could have expected. Right? We've seen a lot of that already. There's a lot of talk about stablecoins. We're going to make stablecoins great. You know, we're going to, you know, welcome them in here. They were really, really excited about stablecoins in this crypto summit. However, little to no talk about the altcoin market, and it didn't respond too well to that. There's a lot of people factoring in, like, oh, hey, Brad Garlinghouse is going to be at this summit. Trump was just tweeting about it. You know, surely something will be said. And then nothing got said about, like, Cardano, Solana or xrp. So people took that with a little bit more fudge and altcoins kind of sold off in reaction, but we're already seeing a bit of a recovery. So, man, that was a mouthful. I don't know if I missed anything there, TiVo, but that is the bulk of what happened. And you know, during this event, I was there, I was watching it live and I was taking notes. I wrote a full report on this. So if you're one of our main, if you're some of our members that you, you know, you've probably already read through that report. But yeah, you know, it was about a two page document where I just broke down everything that happened and there is some more stuff that we can kind of talk about that have been byproducts of all of these conversations. But yeah, what are your thoughts on it?
- [28:00]
TiVo
TiVo, guys, it's been a massive year in crypto with big price movements, headlines everywhere, and major institutions with even countries getting involved. That's why you're here listening to this podcast right, right now. And if you've been curious but feel like you've missed the boat, don't worry, there's still time. Like we talk about on these episodes every week. With only 21 million Bitcoin ever to exist, it's designed to be scarce. And that scarcity can mean real staying power. And the team at Coin Flip Preferred believe stepping into crypto should be simple, secure, and on your terms. That's why they pair you with a dedicated crypto expert who guides you through every step, from your very first transaction to more advanced solutions. Plus, Coin Flip is a registered money services business and does not custody funds, so you stay in control and protected. With nearly a decade of collective experience, Coin Flip Preferred client managers know the space inside and out. If you're ready to explore the world of digital assets with confidence, visit coin flip tech crypto101 or use the promo code crypto101 for 50% off transaction fees. Valid one per customer until May 30, 2025. Yeah, sure thing.
- [29:10]
Brendan
Hey, you sold that car yet?
- [29:12]
TiVo
Yeah, sold it to Carvana.
- [29:14]
Brendan
Oh, I thought you were selling to that guy.
- [29:16]
TiVo
The guy who wanted to pay me in foreign currency, no interest over 36 months. Yeah, no. Carvana gave me an offer in minutes, picked it up and paid me on the spot. It was so convenient. Just like that.
- [29:29]
Brendan
Yeah. No hassle.
- [29:31]
Tevo
None.
- [29:31]
Brendan
That is super convenient.
- [29:33]
Carvana Ad
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- [29:36]
Brendan
Pick up fees may apply.
- [29:38]
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- [30:37]
TiVo
Yeah, great. Absolute amazing roundup there. Almost want to give you like what we got. I got my little media board there. Great, great job. Yeah, I think my, my key takeaways was number one, bitcoin was the big winner of the summit. Altcoins. Yeah. Kind of came, came off as maybe being the losers. But I think one, one important thing to realize about even, you know, as much as you were locked in and wrote a great report, you know, the summit itself that was live streamed was, you know, it was a ceremonial thing in my opinion. Right. It was 30 minutes. Trump came in the first five. The FIFA trophy. Right. For those who watched, they strange to me.
- [31:29]
Brendan
Why was the FIFA stuff happening at the crypto summit? I just couldn't understand that it was.
- [31:34]
TiVo
Happening at the Oval Office. Like the, that was the president's, you know, one to two was the FIFA thing at the Oval Office. Two to three was the crypto summit or whatever. So he just brought the FIFA guy over.
- [31:44]
Brendan
Okay.
- [31:45]
TiVo
Because I think the FIFA guy wanted to mention FIFA coin to everybody. I saw that there's a lot that was funny. But I think the most important thing, and I heard this from, I think it was, it was Mr. Wonderful. Kevin O'Leary said that he was in D.C. that week. He was not invited to the summit. He was not in the room, but he was there. And the reason he went there is because he, he's like the real. And he said this and I agreed with it was the real business was done at, you know, the backroom meetings the night before the dinners. And they were there all day. Again, it was, it was a closed door meeting. So what was discussed and you know, as much as bitcoin came out as the winner, the fact that you had all those exchanges and then, you know, the representatives from different altcoins is you're going to get the regulation that I think you want. So again, whether that's a bullish catalyst or not in the future remains to be seen. Right, because, you know, the market's going to determine that. But you're going to, you're going to get the regulation around those assets that I guess the space has been looking for and we'll have to go from there. But yeah, I think, I think bitcoin was the main winner and you touched on it with, with Howard Lutnick specifically. So he's going to be one of the people in charge of trying to figure out a, you know, a plan to be able to buy more bitcoin at no cost to the taxpayer. And we've played some videos of Howard Lutnick before and I got another one. It is two minutes, but I think it's, it's interesting. I'm going to play it. Sadly, our media uploaders having some technical difficulties today, but I'm going to play it on the browser, Brendan, and then if you can hear it, just don' Say anything. If you can't hear it, just pop in and let me know. But I think it's interesting to listen to this two minutes from Howard Lutnick. Just understand, you know, the viewpoint of bitcoin from somebody who's going to be, you know, in charge of trying to figure out a plan to buy more. So let's listen to Mr. Mr. Lutnick here.
- [33:34]
Tevo
I guess the easiest way to get a clear view of where bitcoin is going over the next five years is take a look at the last five. Right? The last five. Bitcoin has been an outsider in the finance business, but coming closer and closer and closer. Right now there's an ETF just starting to go a little bit mainstream, maybe a toe in the water of mainstream. But banks still can't clear it. Banks still can't transact in it. Banks still can't custodian it. Banks still won't transact in it and they won't finance it. Yet. I think people misunderstand traditional financial service companies. They want to transact in bitcoin. They want new asset classes to transact it. That's just a good thing. But they need the regulator to say it's okay. Right now, today, Right. If a bank were to hold your bitcoin, they would have to set aside their own money equal to that amount in sort of like in the jail. I mean, you'd say so. Well, that's crazy. The answer is that's why they don't hold it. But if you let them hold it, if the regulatory environment was Good. You will see all the traditional financial service companies, the big banks, big brokerage companies, they're all going to go head first into bitcoin pound that's what's going to happen and it's coming. It's a slow, steady process, but eventually there's going to be a CFTC chair who says, you know what, Bitcoin is a financial asset and we're going to treat it as such. And when that happens, you're going to see bitcoin move in very, very strong, positive direction. So that's why I'm a fan of bitcoin. It's going to go much higher. It always bounces around like any other financial asset. But ultimately, over the next five years, as it gets invited into this party, up we go.
- [35:42]
TiVo
So there you go. I think again, I've seen that clip before. I know we've played other ones of him with pomp on the podcast, but, like, just to set the table one last time, that's the guy that's in charge. He's been now giving, given the power to go out and try to figure out a way for the US Government to buy more bitcoin. And so you could say he's biased in the, in the fact, but that's, that's, you know, that's what the campaign ran on. And I think the fact that it's the. I think my closing to tie a bow on it was, I think they really did it the right way because it was one of those things where the crypto community was ravaged up the week before. Obviously, we went off the tweets and we shot things to the moon, you know, again, the 50, 60% on the Sunday tweet. And then this, this left us wanting more. Right. So the people that, you know will point and say, oh, this is, you know, they're just doing this to pander to you. They actually left the crypto community maybe even wanting more. And then the people that don't like crypto and are anti crypto, it's like, hey, we're going to do this, but whatever we do is not going to have any extra cost to the taxpayer. So I really thought it was, it was a great, a great event and it was a more than fair outcome for, you know, the United States and, you know, with people like this that have the power to go forward. I'm excited to see what he comes up with and, you know, stay apprised of this story as it grows.
- [37:06]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, he makes a great point. When you look at that rule that has said for any financial player that wants to hold bitcoin, you need to hold 100% of cash equivalent. That's what he was saying there. You know, they have to have all of their own money put aside on top of the investment itself. So if this bank wants to go out and they want to buy a billion dollars or hold a billion dollars worth of bitcoin, then what they need to also do is set aside a billion dollars in cash that is locked for that $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. So what they aren't like incentivized to do is go out and hold bitcoin. Well, what happens if that increases? What if all of a sudden they have $2 billion in Bitcoin? Well, does that mean now that they need $2 billion in cash? And that's why a lot of these financial institutions were discouraged from not only letting their clients have crypto, but also bringing and holding crypto on their own balance sheets. Because they were going to say, why does it make sense for us to invest in something that we need a hundred percent cash equivalent in just to be able to hold the very asset itself? And so it was a super frustrating process where people were discouraged. These financial institutions, they didn't want to hold bitcoin in the first place. So, man, he makes a great point. Again, this is an insider, this is someone who is playing a pretty key level in the government at the moment. And he's not only bullish, but he's saying, hey, I'm giving you the catalyst that we can change, that they're probably working to change. I am literally telling you the catalyst for, for like what these catalysts are that could send bitcoin higher. So I'm keeping a close eye on that. You'll probably hear us talking about it as we're going through the rest of these rundowns in future weeks. But there's also a lot of other stuff out there as well. A lot of people are saying, hey, what's next here? You know, what is the next catalyst? And there's a lot of them. You know, I think another big one was this. These wars that have been happening right in the Middle east, over in Europe, the Russia, Ukraine war. And it looks like there is a proposed ceasefire agreement over there that Ukraine is accepted now it's pending, and we're waiting to see, hey, is Russia going to accept this? That caused a pretty decent sized flash crash in the markets back in like 2021, 2022. And you know, we saw the effects of that, the negative effects. And I think that, you know, people were positively responding to that in recent days as the market was moving back, back to the upside. What that does is that if war, like literal war, is removed, that proposes less fear, less uncertainty, less doubt. We always like to go back to the FUD example. If wars are being removed out of the picture, well, then that's less FUD that we have to worry about. And I think that that is also a good thing, right? No one wants war, no one likes war. You know, maybe those, those private military companies, maybe like Lockheed Martin or something, but, you know, for the most part, like, no one likes war. And I think that if we can remove that out of the equation, then there's just more positive catalysts. And then the last, like, real fear that I think we have here, arguably one of the only fears is what's happening with tariffs, right? They're on, they're off. It's the U.S. it's Canada, it's China, it's Europe, like, it's Mexico, it's everyone. I think that is the last fear that we need to remove. And I think that once we see the tariff fears start to dissipate, start to reverse, you start to go away, call it whatever you want. Once those start to go away and start to get resolved, I think we are in for a rippening, just an absolute rippening here in the crypto markets, because that is where a lot of the fear, uncertainty and doubt is coming from at the moment. So if we can start to get these wars resolved, if we can start to get the tariff stuff resolved, I think those are the two big catalysts that you need to keep an eye out on, because as soon as they start to flip and pivot directions and we start to see a lot of that stuff going away, I think we are going to be in for a Covid like recovery. We just talked about, you know, in the beginning of the episode, hey, we're moving down in a more volatile way than we saw in Covid, right? Well, I think that just as we are just as fast as we're moving down, I think we can have a Covid like V shape recovery where we recover all the way back up. And then we have more upside after that, as we showed in the charts at the beginning of the episode. And then, you know, the last thing I think, you know, maybe there's three catalysts, right? We have the war, we have the terrorists, and then we have what's happening over here with the Fed. And, you know, Teva, you were talking to me about this, so I want to hand it back to you. But we have this idea of the Trump put versus the Fed put.
- [41:48]
TiVo
Yeah. And I think we should preface it. As much as, you know, we like to point out when we're right, I think it's something to, you know, point out maybe, I don't necessarily want to call it wrong, but there was, there was the. And it wasn't just us. It was. Everybody was talking about it. It was the euphoria after election night when everything rocketed, just like we're talking about how everything's coming down right now. It was. Bitcoin was rocketing. The S and P was rocketing. Deregulation. Pro Business America first. Everybody going into Christmas, that first week of December was buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, until Mr. Jerome Powell put a lid on it. I remember we were texting after that press conference. Why the hell, why the hell did he say he was thinking about maybe raising rates if needed? Why would you even say that? And that's because I think he was looking ahead and he's like, wow, this market is quite getting ahead of itself. And he threw some cold water on us that mid December week. I remember we were talking about it. Yeah, we were on the wrong side of some of that downside, just like everybody was. But everybody was talking about, oh, Trump, all he does is tweet about the stock market. All he wants is a high stock market so he can tweet about it in the Oval Office. We talked about it. We said it was, you know, his golf score in the stock market. And everybody that. That was going into this year, that was the thesis and that's why everybody was caught offsides. Because starting after inauguration data now with this, with this drop, this crazy, you know, again, the fifth fastest drop in the S and P in history is based on Trump saying, I don't care about the stock market. And, you know, yeah, it's, it's not a Trump put. It's a Trump call said our, you know, our bessant basically saying, like, hey, it's going to go down before it goes up. And again, I set the table on this because everybody was wrong. I didn't hear one pundit talk about Trump not caring about the stock market. And it's actually a fascinating game of chess. If you take your political lens off, take your glasses off and look at what's going on. Trump going into the office right at. Before he won and after he won, says, I want lower rates. Talking to Jerome Powell, you need to lower rates. You need to lower rates. And then Jerome Powell, you know, respectfully, I think, and well done, because he's an independent body, was like, you know, hey, like, you know, we're an independent body. We're not going to do, you know, we're not going to be influenced. He said it respectfully, but hey, we're not going to do it. And I think Trump was like, I've had this, you know, back and forth with this guy before. You know, he can do his thing over there. Watch what I'm going to do. Tariff.
- [44:15]
Brendan
Yeah.
- [44:15]
TiVo
All right. We're going on a tariff war. You're worried about, you know, the Fed's mandate, as we said before, is low inflation and high and high employment. Right. And so what are tariffs going to do? Tariffs are going to spook the Fed and the, and the economic system of, of higher. Of inflation. Right. Because you got to pass through those costs. And so now all eyes are on the Trump put, which he says he doesn't care, but at the same time, he says, my favorite tweet from Trump this week was, I'm not looking at the stock market, which clearly means he is. But I think what that really means is he knows him and his team know what they're doing. It's a political game of chess and he's playing chicken with the Fed. So, like, who's going to blink first? Because as much as Trump says he doesn't care about the stock market, he can't push us into recession. Because if he pushes, and this is again, my opinion politically, but if he pushes us into recession at the back end of this year, 2026 is a midterm year. And so if you're going into recession while you're looking to reelect, you know, the senators and the congressmen that you need, continue your agenda, you're going to lose the House. And so you can't push this into recession, but at the same time, you want lower rates. And so, you know, Trump's turning a blind eye to the market, which means, I think all eyes are on the Fed if we keep getting good inflation data. And the market seems a little scary this morning. Right. We got this morning and it was, you know, if you go back a week or two weeks ago, you know, I think a cut, a May cut was 10%. Now it's 53% two weeks later. So the, these are the, these are the pieces that are, you know, you gotta again zoom out and get your pieces to the puzzle. But there's so many things going on right now that, that it's just jarring the market and the market like certainty. So it makes sense, I guess in hindsight that we're down this much. But unless we break the economy, I mean, we have a very, very strong economy. So we just have to see how all this flushes out, whether these tariffs are a negotiation tactic, get to get the 10 year down, or if inflation, you know, pops its ugly head. Again, these are the things we're watching and nothing's determined now. So yeah, a good time to, to keep educating and, and you know, that's why you listen to the show.
- [46:26]
Brendan
Yeah, 100. 100%, man. You know, we like to talk about all this because again, there's seriously so many catalysts at work and we know that not everyone has the time to not only go and research all this stuff like find out, hey, what are or what is everything that's happening in the world of tradfi, in the world of crypto, how does it all correlate? Like, it's a lot to just find all that information, let alone to like digest it and understand it and everything that comes alongside that. So again, we love doing this. This is your friendly little mid video reminder because we got a lot more that we need to talk about here. But if you do like that and you like the breakdown and you like it all being handed to you in a single hour long or under video and hit that like button, hit that subscribe button, check us out in some of the links below. But you know, perhaps one of the best things to come out of the last week a little bit funny was who was it? Rachel Maddow talking about Beanie Babies and bitcoin.
- [47:22]
TiVo
Again, I love how you pronounce her name wrong because she's, yeah, kind of a clown. Rachel Maddow. I like that though. Rachel Maddow. I'm not going to play the clip. I, I'm actually nixing it as the producer. Number one, because it's super long. Number two, because I don't want us to get dinged with a copyright because it's msnbc. But I think out of all the things that are going on, there's a national news segment that went on that's calling this crypto reserve and, and the crypto summit a scam, a scheme. And she compared her little opening monologue. Monologue was, I quote, I don't know anything about bitcoin or crypto and I don't care to know. But this is a scam, let me tell you why. And I thought that was really, I thought that was a really interesting way to start the monologue. And she literally compares bitcoin to Beanie Babies back when we were kids.
- [48:12]
Brendan
Why does it always go that way? It's like, hey, I know nothing about this. I'm not gonna comment, but it's a scam. Yeah.
- [48:18]
TiVo
She goes, I know nothing about bitcoin or crypto, and I don't care to. But let me tell you why this is a scam. It was a great opener. And then, yeah, comparing bitcoin to Beanie Babies. I know when I was a kid and you were, too. There's the Beanie Baby craze when it went everything from, you know, buying and selling McDonald's is giving them out in Happy Meals. It was a craze for sure. But, like, she couldn't even compare it to, like, the tulip craze back in the day. I thought, b. I thought it was really disrespectful and uneducated to go that route. And not especially. You give a five minute monologue and then not have a dissenting opinion on. Of somebody in the space to debate. It was. It was a trash clip. But that's. I guess that that's the angle of that channel to get people riled up. So, you know, it is what it is. I wish I could play for you. If you haven't seen it, just search it online. Rachel. Rachel Maddow, Bitcoin, Beanie Babies to get yourself a laugh. But I think that shows also that, like, we're still kind. We're still early. As much as the US Government is now, you know, considering bitcoin a strategic asset, you still have people on a national news organization comparing it to Beanie Babies. So just something fun there. But let's wrap it up with the lawsuits. I know you have one more long list to buzz through, Brendan. This is. This is gonna lead us to the end of the episode and walk us, have us walk away more bullish than ever. So let's hear about all these lawsuits that have been dropped.
- [49:41]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, let's talk about this, because over the past couple of weeks, we've been saying, hey, these are all the catalysts. This is everything that's happening. Well, let's do a. Let's do a lightning session here. TiVo. During that same time period, we have seen the Binance lawsuit has been dropped, the Coinbase lawsuit has been dropped, the Kraken lawsuit has been dropped, the Uniswap lawsuit has been dropped. The Robinhood lawsuit has been dropped. The one for Gemini Yuga Labs and OpenSea have all been dropped. And that's just getting started. There's more. Those are just some of the big companies. On top of that, outside of the sec, we have the US which has announced the official formation of a strategic bitcoin reserve. The US said, hey, we're going to stop selling bitcoin. Operation choke point 2.0 is over. The weaponization of the SEC against cryptocurrency is over. We want to welcome businesses back to the US in terms of like bringing in these crypto companies. And now we are seeing dozens of states that have applied for a strategic crypto reserve outside of the Federal Reserve that we've already seen. What this has done is created a domino effect. We just set the. We just really like flick the first domino down. That's what the strategic bitcoin reserve is. Now that we're starting to see all these other things happen. For years we've been setting up the dominoes one by one, one by one, just one at a time. And what we've done here with these, like, recent actions is we push the first one or two over to get the ball rolling. And now I think we're going to start to see the real domino effect. More of the SEC loosening their view on crypto. We're going to see the SEC create much clearer clarity, which is something that a lot of people have been asking for. We've seen it from a lot of these ETF providers. We've seen it from a lot of the exchanges and crypto projects saying, hey, we just want clear regulation. It looks like the SEC is going to not only give us clear regulation, but also loose regulation as well on top of this. And we have all those state level crypto reserves that are being applied for, and we're probably going to see a lot of those go through. Then you have to look at like, what kind of other countries are going to be looking at a crypto reserve? What kind of other sovereign wealth funds are going to be looking at crypto? We saw a big investment coming from the Middle east into the IBIT etf. Then what other institutions, what companies are going to be investing in crypto moving forward? And then that's not to mention the existing, like retail investors and all these other big players and financial managers that are also doing this as well. So. And you not even to mention we have all these new crypto ETFs. The more I talk about it, the more I think. But then we have more crypto ETFs, and we have a lot of Other things that are down the line that we can still look forward to. So man, there's a lot to be excited about. If I just said that entire list talking about how the Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap, Robinhood, Gemini, Yuga Labs and Opensees lawsuits all being dropped. The announcement of a strategic Federal Reserve, talking about state level reserves, other countries investing, other institutions, retail investors still very hyped up about it. If that doesn't get you bullish, then I'm not sure what will. Maybe it's the idea of more ETFs along the way, but the ball here seriously is just starting to get rolling again. And I'm not going to say hey, we can't go lower, we can't do this and that. I think it's possible again we could maybe drop lower. But I think that what we get out of this TiVo is one of the best, most like violent buy the dip opportunities in a very positive way that we've seen in a long time. And I know it sucks and it hurts. And me and you were talking about this the other day when we had that almost 5% down day in the tradfi markets and we are like, man, this, it sucks, it hurts. We get it. We're humans too, right? We own a lot of the assets that we talk about during these, these rundowns. So we get your pain. However, I think what we're getting out of this is going to be a really, really, really fun time. So that's the way that we're just positioning ourselves. Again, nothing that we say here is legal, financial or tax advice in any way, but we like to be transparent and we're hyped up and there's a lot of good things on the horizon. So we've talked about what is happening, what is going to happen and a lot of the catalysts and potential pivot points to look out for moving forward. So we hope this helped you out. We hope that you found it useful. If you did, then check out some of those links in the description down below. Also hit that like and subscribe button if you like the content and if you really liked it, then go ahead and hit or leave us a comment or leave us a review. We love to hear from everyone, the good and the bad. We know that sometimes we get mixed reviews of, you know, depending on what we say about your favorite altcoin project. But we do want to see the entire crypto space thrive regardless of what the project is. So again, thank you all for watching and we're going to see all of you at the same time, same place next week. Wow.
- [54:55]
TiVo
What's up?
- [54:55]
Brendan
I just bought and financed a car through Carvana in minutes. You, the person who agonized four weeks over whether to paint your walls eggshell or off white, bought and financed a car in min minutes. They made it easy, transparent terms, customizable, down and monthly. Didn't even have to do any paperwork. Wow. Hey, have you checked out that spreadsheet I sent you for our dinner?
- [55:15]
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