Crypto 101 – Crypto Rundown: Retail Sells as Institutions Buy — What the Data is Showing Us!

Podcast: Crypto 101
Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman (guest hosts: TiVo & Brian)
Date: November 8, 2025

Episode Overview

This week, Crypto 101 dives deep into the recent turmoil across asset classes—crypto, stocks, and gold—focusing on why markets are bloody and what’s really happening beneath the surface. The hosts examine key macro trends, highlight the stark contrast between rattled retail investors and bullish institutions, break down wallet and ETF data, and explore what this means for the future. They also cover institutional moves in crypto, privacy coin surges, prediction market trends, and meme correlations (yes, the McRib returns).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Macro Market Volatility: Panic or Opportunity?

• Unrest Across Assets: Crypto, stocks, gold—all down. The government shutdown and lack of new jobs data have spooked markets ("flying blind in the fog" for the Fed).
  • “Markets as a whole are now kind of getting an upset tummy for how long the government's been closed.” (TiVo, 01:42)
• Retail vs. Institutional Attitude:
  • Retail is panicking—fear and greed index hit 21, bordering “extreme fear”.
  • “Retail's running around like a chicken with their head cut off. But the institutions aren't—they're still bullish. They're still putting out bullish commentary.” (TiVo, 02:56)

2. State of Crypto Values and Sentiment

• Bitcoin & Majors:
  • Bitcoin has dipped, bouncing around the $100K psychological mark (currently ~$102K).
  • Ethereum at ~$3400, Solana at ~$160—hosts see these levels as fundamentally strong.
  • “I believe that we were going to chop for quite some time in a pretty tight range. I didn't really think we were going to dip below 100 grand. Maybe that's the permeable in me.” (Brian, 03:40)
• Advice for the Volatility:
  • Dollar cost average, zoom out, and don’t leverage up. Bitcoin is up 300% since ETF launch (80% annualized).
  • “When there is volatility, there's opportunity as well... nothing's broken. But retail is scared.” (Brian, 03:40)
  • “Even with the pullback, Bitcoin’s up 300% since the ETF 30 months ago.” (TiVo, 09:52)

3. On-Chain Data: Long-Term Holders & Whales

• Whale Sell-Offs:
  • October saw OG whales offload $44B of Bitcoin (~405K BTC), typically selling to institutions via ETFs—this is a redistribution, not a collapse.
  • “These bitcoin whales...they probably didn’t want to sell into a pump before ETFs because there wasn’t enough liquidity... Now, with ETFs, they finally take some major profits.” (Brian, 13:11)
  • ETFs provide “a true built-in floor” at ~$90K per BTC average.
  • Over time, sell pressure should diminish as these whales run out of BTC to sell.
• Market Cycles:
  • Reference to the four-year crypto cycle. This sell-off (akin to the GBTC correction) may be a necessary flush before the next leg up.

4. Institutional Moves and Sentiment

• Bitwise’s Matt Hogan:
  • Institutions remain bullish while retail sentiment is near rock bottom.
  • Quote:

    “It's almost a tale of two markets... retail is just more depressed than I've ever seen it. I think the market is shifting into an institutionally driven market and interestingly that market is still bullish…”
    (Matt Hogan, 20:56)

• Charles Schwab & Old Guard:
  • Schwab clients own 20% of crypto ETPs and traffic to their research site is up 90% YOY.
  • “Our clients are engaged in it. As a group, our clients are...very interested.” (Schwab Exec, 23:17)
• Major Institutional Buys:
  • Cathie Wood’s Ark buying more BitMine (largest ETH treasury company); Tether and Robinhood considering or making BTC buys.
  • “It's hard to put into words how bullish these institutions are.” (TiVo, 25:20)
• Institutions vs. Retail:
  • Institutions look for long-term 2x/3x returns, not quick 20% trades.
  • “Institutions aren’t buying into bitcoin... for a 15 to 20% win... They're looking at this long term, just like we all need to as well.” (Brian, 26:33)

5. Strategic Themes: Nation-State Accumulation & Geopolitics

• Bitcoin 'Arms Race':
  • U.S. and China are both accumulating massive quantities of BTC, leading to theory of a coming “arms race” for scarce BTC supply.
  • Quote:

    “Adversaries of the US will ultimately buy bitcoin...there's gonna be an arms race. As you know, there's only 21 million...”
    (Pantera Capital clip, 30:14)

  • Once governments start announcing holdings, the supply squeeze will be rapid and global.
  • “...people that actually hold a bitcoin... you're gonna be looking at them in awe... It's gonna go so much higher, because there's gonna just be a supply squeeze.” (Brian, 31:17)
• U.S. Political Climate:
  • Crypto’s legislative environment has shifted favorably.
  • Crypto referenced as the U.S.'s "superpower" and AI leadership point by President.
  • Expect further pro-crypto moves closer to the midterm elections.

6. Crypto Product Launches: Solana ETFs, Staking, and More

• Solana ETF Momentum:
  • Continuous inflows (8 days in a row, >$500M into B SOL); demonstrates demand for institutional access, especially with staking rewards.
  • “It's clear investors want Solana exposure that has staking...certain institutions...can't go buy Solana. So when these products start being offered, it opens the door to a lot more money.” (TiVo, 36:35)
  • “There's an appetite for Solana right now. Even in a down market.” (Brian, 37:57)
• Other ETF/Products:
  • Indications of coming staking ETFs for Ethereum.

7. Privacy Coin Mania: ZCash & Beyond

• ZCash Explodes:
  • Top 20 crypto, up to $711, nearly doubling in a week—signals appetite for privacy coins.
  • “ZCash...essentially keeps the sender and receiver anonymous...just absolutely ripping in this down market.” (Brian, 38:23)
  • Regulatory headwinds a concern, but the run is “exhilarating.”
  • “Makes me salty a little bit because I'm not in the trade. But I'm super happy for everyone because it's great.” (Brian, 40:34)

8. Meme Markets, Predictive Fun, and Community Vibes

• Crypto Memes & Sentiment:
  • McRib’s return correlated (humorously) with BTC rallies among the community.
  • “It is one of the strongest correlated aspects of bitcoin going parabolic...when the McRib comes back.” (Brian, 42:00)
• Momentum Alerts & Alpha:
  • Hosts share alpha on newer, undervalued plays (e.g., Avicii, Pump.fun), and reiterate: speculative gains should always roll into core assets.
  • “We do speculative buys every day...but point is to catch big wins and rotate back into the majors.” (Brian, 18:27)
• Prediction Markets Boom:
  • Major companies (Gemini, Google with Kalshi/Polymarket, DraftKings) are entering or leveraging prediction markets for both data and wagering.
  • “Prediction markets are awesome…some of the most accurate data we absolutely have.” (Brian, 54:47)
  • Government shutdown and Fed decision odds highlighted (>60% chance shutdown extends past Nov 16th).
  • “...it's going to take care of itself sooner rather than later.” (Brian, 56:42)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Fear:
  “Retail is scared... my text messages blow up whenever we take nasty dips like this…just sit on your hands and dollar cost average in because overall things feel okay.” (Brian, 03:40)
• On Whales Selling to Institutions:
  “These OG whales...eventually run out of bitcoin to sell. And once that happens, there's going to be way less sell pressure.” (Brian, 13:11)
• Matt Hogan of Bitwise:
  “Crypto retail is in max desperation...I think the market is shifting into an institutionally driven market and interestingly that market is still bullish... I'm optimistic that we rally into the end of the year and into 2026.” (Matt Hogan, 20:56)
• Pantera Capital on Nation-States:
  “If a bunch of people all want to buy a million [Bitcoin] each, it's not enough to go around.” (Pantera clip, 30:14)
• On Persevering Through Volatility:
  “Whenever I get these text messages... I'm like, listen, not financial advice, boys, but bitcoin is absolutely on sale now. You're going to be looking at this a year, two years down the line...” (Brian, 26:23)
• McRib/BTC Correlation:
  “We need the McRib back because it is one of the strongest correlated aspects of bitcoin going parabolic.” (Brian, 42:00)
• On Staying Long-Term:
  “We're going to keep doing this for years...because it's truly what we love to do...even when it's red.” (TiVo, 62:45)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Macro Market View & Opening – 00:00 – 03:40
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index, Current Prices – 03:40 – 06:10
• Long-Term Focus and Zooming Out – 09:52 – 13:11
• Whale Selling Data – 13:11 – 15:32
• GBTC Sell-off & Leverage Risks – 15:32 – 18:27
• Institutional Sentiment (Matt Hogan Bitwise, Schwab, Ark) – 20:56 – 25:20
• US-China-Global Arms Race Clip (Pantera Capital) – 30:14 – 31:17
• Solana ETF & Staking Product Inflows – 36:09 – 37:57
• Privacy Coins Surge (Zcash) – 38:07 – 41:17
• Meme Markets & McRib Correlation – 42:00 – 42:38
• Momentum Money Makers, Recent Plays – 43:04 – 44:38
• Prediction Markets Deep Dive – 54:47 – 57:36
• Community Questions & Wrap-up – 57:37 – End (62:45)

Conclusion

Despite sharp volatility, the fundamental story for crypto remains intact—and perhaps more bullish than ever. Retail is shaken, but institutional flows and enthusiasm signal strong price support and future growth. Whales are redistributing, not abandoning ship. The next stage may see nation-states bidding for an increasingly scarce Bitcoin supply. For listeners: zoom out, avoid leverage panic, and watch for continued institutional and product innovation—even in the face of macro headwinds and meme market madness.

For more actionable insights and first-mover alerts, join the Crypto 101 Momentum Money Makers community (links in episode description).