← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: SOL ETF Odds Approach 100%, BlockRock Moves BTC & ETH, & FTX Pays Out $5 Billion!
00:39:23
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign.
- [00:10]
Brendan
Welcome back to the Crypto 101 rundown presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And we're excited to have all of you back with here, back here with us again. It's going to be an exciting episode. We got a lot going on in the great world of crypto and we're getting some pretty solid price action coming off of the weekend. So as most of the crypto market is rallying back to the upside, lots of interesting things to talk about here today. We're going to be breaking down everything that you need to know, including, let's just give a little, a little bit of a sneak peek here, TiVo including. We're exiting out of the worst 10 day stretch in the market into seasonally the best area of the market as we go into October and November, as a lot of people like to call it. We have October right around the corner here. And so we're on the final day here of this really nasty stretch that we traditionally get in September and we're getting ready to enter into a whole new era of the market. And historically speaking, this should actually be one of the best periods for crypto in the entire year. Now, behind the scenes, I mean, we're seeing all sorts of different things from the tradfi markets, from the crypto markets. One of the big takeaways is that we are seeing large investors, smart investors, these financial institutions, you name it, Anyone that has any kind of significant amount of money is trying to get their hands and get involved with crypto in all these different ways. And you'll notice that that's a bit of a reoccurring theme here in today's episode. And so we're going to look at what BlackRock's doing, we're going to look at what some of these crypto ETFs are doing, we're going to look at what's happening behind the scenes with Coinbase and these treasury companies and how fast and how significant some of these levels of accumulation are because again, I think it really does paint the whole picture. And we even have existing like tether coming out and accumulating over a billion dollars worth of bitcoin for their own purposes. And so again, there is this race that's on. There is a race to accumulate because the smart money investors, the large investors, whether it's tradfi defi doesn't matter. They understand that this stuff is going to be extremely valuable going into the future. And we're seeing this like this crypto race happening in front of our eyes where people just can't get enough of it. And ultimately what that does is that squeezes price to the upside. So lots of stuff to talk about there. I think the last thing I just want to mention before we begin is that we're seeing a lot of information around the ETFs and it looks like according to some of the ETF analysts, I mean, we're at just about 100% odds of approval in the next month or so for these ETFs. And so we're going to reveal exactly which ETFs those are, how it could impact the market, things to expect moving forward, and all that good and juicy stuff. So without further ado, TiVo, man, what an episode. That was a mouthful as we get started, but lots of good things happening.
- [03:02]
TiVo
Yeah, one of those exciting episodes where we had an epic giant team wide episode on Friday. If you missed that, make sure you go back and listen to that because we had Bryce, we have Rohit. You guys don't get to hear from them all the time. They had some awesome insights. So if you didn't hear Friday's episode, go back and check that out. But one of those fun, fun weeks here where we have a Friday afternoon episode. And then sure enough, over the weekend and into Monday, there was a ton of news and a ton of price action where, you know, everybody thought the world was falling last week. I guess not everybody. The panic ins the weekends. And then sure enough, you know, Sunday, Monday, everything pops back ease back to 4200 and you know, hood is absolutely rocketing yesterday. And yeah, some positive price action heading into October. We're really excited. Again we say zoom out here. There's a ton of macro stuff that is why you come to this show each week to to learn what is going on. So like Brendan said, we have an epic Monday or it's Tuesday, epic Tuesday. Rundown here. We got 10 line items, folks, 10 line items to cover for you today. But we're going to kick it off with some ta. So let's jump into it.
- [04:06]
Brendan
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, let's just take a look at this chart because TiVo, like you said, man, we're having a good rally over the weekend here. And it really all starts with bitcoin as bitcoin's kind of leading the charge. But man, this is what that chart looks like. We talked last week a little bit about this move down that we had a little bit of kind of a depressing move right where we, we looked like we were breaking out to the upside above the moving averages, breaking through some of those lower highs. And then we met some resistance at around 118k and price fell pretty steeply. Back to the downside. And so what we saw is that over about a one week period, Bitcoin fell about 8% to the downside. For altcoins, it was around 20 plus percent depending on the altcoin that we're looking at. And so pretty big pullback across the board, at least a decent size one, as bitcoin was pushing almost double digits to the downside.
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TiVo
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- [08:29]
Brendan
A couple of things that I want to kind of break down here with Bitcoin is that in the short term I think you can make the argument that there's still a little bit of uncertainty. But as you zoom out to the bigger picture, we already have this saying that we like to use when in doubt, zoom out. But as you begin to zoom out, you start to realize that this mid to long term picture looks really really good still. In fact, I think it looks increasingly stronger the more kind of price action we get like this. But again, I understand some of the short term choppiness that's just going to be kind of the nature of the crypto markets is getting some of that short term choppiness, short term volatility, that's nothing new for us here as crypto holders. But the big thing that I want to highlight for everyone is that as we zoom out over here, we can kind of see that this area that was the previous all time high as I've highlighted. I mean, we've come up here and we've rejected and we've rejected and we've rejected this area so many different times. We can clearly see that this area around 109k or so, has historically been a pretty big resistance point until we broke it here in recent weeks and rather, I guess in recent months. And then we've kind of come back down and bounced off this and come down and bounced off this, and come down and bounced off this. And now what we can start to see is that that prior all time high resistance level is now turning into a newfound support level. And on top of this, one of the other big data points that we've been trying to preach is that this anchored V wap from the trade war lows back in April has been a critical level of support for bitcoin where we've kind of broke out, bounced off this, broke out, bounced off this, broke out, bounced off it. And we continue to find support right around or above that anchored vwap from the lows, which is this orange line on the screen. And so again, we're kind of turning prior highs in the newfound lows. We're using the anchored vwap as support and we're catching at a pretty important level over here on bitcoin. And so I really, really do like what we're seeing here in the big picture now, I think in the short term picture, TiVo, we could look a little bit back in over here on the charts and say, well, you know, again, bitcoin is in this channel where we're going from support to resistance to support to resistance. And we have this very clear idea that, hey, the top part of this falling channel is a resistance line. The bottom part of this falling channel is a support line. Again, I think you could say, hey, we're at resistance. We're right at those 20 and 50 day moving averages. We're at the top of this resistance line. We're at that lower swing high. From a technical perspective, you could say, hey, this is a little bit risky. Maybe we get a little bit of a rejection or of a pullback on this level. But again, when in doubt, zoom out. You have a little bit of short term risk. But a falling channel in the scheme of a move upwards is identified as a bull flag, which again is a bullish continuation pattern where you have a move up, you have consolidation downwards, which is typically followed by more continuation to the upside. And so this is one of the two primary kinds of bull flags that we can see. So again, short term I think you can make an argument that we're at resistance and stuff, but once we start to see this resistance line and these moving averages crack, and once bitcoin starts getting above its prior highs of maybe like 116, 117, 118, I think Bitcoin's back off to the races. And you have to understand that the break of a bull flag like this back to the upside could very well lead bitcoin back to the prior all time highs of around 124, 123, if not actually higher than that. And I think it could push us even closer to like 130 once we start getting a breakout. Listen, you know, I'm watching these levels in the short term saying, hey, let's just be cognizant that resistance is, is slightly overhead. But the moment that we start breaking that, I think that we can understand and kind of prepare ourselves for this idea that more upside could very likely be on the way. So maybe we do get a slight little bit of a retracement. I know that we have a CME gap down here as well that people like to kind of pay attention to. But again, you know, maybe we get some choppiness. I'm not saying we can't get more downside, but I think the broad picture that I'm trying to paint here is that, you know, a, we could just be in the most bullish case scenario which is where we just break out from here. But there is a possibility that hey, maybe we retrace down and then we kind of see this higher high afterwards. But the big takeaway is I think that more highs are coming and that seems to be everyone's big question is, is it possible for more highs? And I would say it's probable. What is a little bit more gray with where we're at right now is, you know, are we going to get that this week or are we going to get that maybe in a month or two and are we going to see that over the next month? And I know everyone wants to have a little bit of this kind of instant gratification mindset where it happens immediately, but realistically here it's still a little bit cloudy in the short term as we have that resistance sitting slightly overhead. And, you know, maybe we do see a little bit of downside into kind of those new highs afterwards, but the best case scenario is just kind of seeing it right here, right now. So let's cross our fingers and hope to see that. The other things that I've noticed here is just that bitcoin dominance is definitely back on the rise. And it has been kind of since the middle part of September. We saw it bottom out around 57%. Now it's climbing back up. It's not anything too shocking. You know, we can kind of tell that, hey, bitcoin dominance falls, and then it rises and it falls, and then, then it rises, falls, and it rises, and it does this. It does look like it's still in the overall kind of downtrend, and it has pivoted. But bitcoin performing a little bit better than altcoins here in the second half of September, which is something that has stood out to me. An interesting thing as well is that, you know, we're starting to see some of these other large caps turn around as well. But again, they've just seen kind of this continued selling pressure that is a little bit more than what we're seeing in bitcoin. And so when we look at altcoins here, again, we always like to say they move it around 2 to 3x the volatility of Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin's down 1%, we see Ethereum down 2 and a half percent. On the day, we see Solana down almost 3%, we see XRP down about 2%. You know, we see some of these other altcoins down around 3% or so across the board, depending on the altcoin. So altcoins are still kind of seeing a little bit more downside volatility, but they did see some nice rallies over the weekend. I mean, if we look at Ethereum here, TiVo, you can see that, hey, this thing came into its prior highs and it bounced right off of this important level. That's a good thing to see. You could say the same thing over here with Salana. It kind of came down into its prior highs, peaked its head below 200, and immediately started seeing some aggressive buying pressure where it bounced 12 and a half percent back to the upside. So I don't really hate these levels too much. I did a little bit of accumulation for myself. And, you know, I know we have XRP people in here as well. You know, I've been watching this level around $2.70 as it's been a pretty historic accumulation zone. Again, an area that was prior highs now turned into support. And I've been watching this $2.70, $2.75 zone as just another one of those examples. Yeah, I mean lots of, lots of kind of positive price action and nice bounces happening across the board. You know, hopefully we get some continuation here. Again, we are in a kind of perfect time of the year for this, but I'll pause there and we can kind of go back and forth. But yeah, you know, I'm liking what I'm seeing here. TiVo.
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TiVo
Yeah, I mean the charts are just one part of the equation at this point. As we head into the year, we're trying to look at the macro. We're trying to look at rate cuts. Obviously that storyline is going to be coming in and out. It's going to be in kind of like a weave pattern over the next, what, three months, two months. It's your wait for it, wait for it clearing event. Then you got about two weeks and then you're looking at the data. The data, the data. Then rate cuts. What's going to happen? Again, there is a little bit of. Just a side note before we continue on with the show is like the government shutdown. While that doesn't really affect the crypto markets too much, I think overall, if there is a government shutdown, you're going to be missing the jobs data, which will be interesting when it comes to kind of that Fed decision of what, what could or might happen. But I'm going to take over the screen share, Brendan, if you don't mind. And we'll, we'll continue on. I got a couple things teed up for us, but before we do that, we have a ton of people in the chat, a ton of people in the live. We really appreciate it. If you're joining us, you're enjoying the show. Give us a like. It really helps us grow the channel. So hammer that like button and then if you're new here, subscribe in the bottom right, you'll see our logo. Hit that, hit subscribe and then jump in the chat. Tell us where you're from. I know we got Deborah, we got Ryan, Grant's here, Josh is here, One Vision's here. Tons, tons of fun. Mike's here. Great, great group for a Tuesday. That's awesome. But we're pulling up the M2 money supply so we kind of COVID that all the time. It seemed to be in a little bit of a correction phase of kind of going sideways for a little bit but then it rocketed to new heights. So you're looking at, you know, M2 money supply compared to the bitcoin price. You know, Bitcoin's at 112 and M2 money supply could top out at around 175 this week. So that's something that a lot of people like to try to compare to bitcoin to see if it'll catch up. Moving on to the Fear Greed index. Still neutral. It's been that way for, for a couple weeks. So it's right at 43. That thing's been pretty consistent for the last couple weeks, but always good to check in. And then I pulled up Poly Markets. I thought it was interesting of kind of seeing the TA of that, you know, kind of that consolidation zone that we're watching. And the odds for bitcoin to hit 125k this year are 68%. 130k is 56%, 140k is 37%. So I think, you know, there's more, more trading to the upside on, on Poly Market, which again is kind of leaning and showing you where the, the market is leaning which again can just be more tools, tools in your tool when you're, when you're making decisions. But what do you, what are your thoughts on all that data, Brendan?
- [18:44]
Brendan
Yeah, you know, the M2 money supply here is interesting because we historically see a pretty close correlation in between what bitcoin is doing and what the M2 money supply is doing. And the big correlation there is again not really in the short term, it is in the long term. And it's, I think the more you zoom out, the more it tends to be correlated and sees better performance. And again, I do believe that we're going to see this game of catch up. We've seen gold running, we've seen equities running, we've seen all these different asset classes running. And I do think that it's time for crypto to kind of have its next move up here. And we've gone through these different forms of consolidation where we've seen crypto just kind of chilling out after a really large move to the upside, hitting new all time highs. And now we've seen kind of crypto go through this again consolidation phase, but I think now we're kind of exiting towards the back part of that. I think that this consolidation phase ends. We've talked before about how the last 10 days in September are historically the worst 10 day stretch out of the entire year for the markets. And I would apply that to Crypto as well. And so we're here on the last day of September and I think you really do have to believe that we're, we're getting ready for October and again, October, November, December is the best period for the markets with November being the best month, October being I think like the second best month and historically just a really, really solid one in terms of performance. So yeah, you know, pretty, pretty optimistic and I think that we can see a bit of catch up here happen with bitcoin moving to the upside. And I think part of that is probably going to be due to a little bit of a supply squeeze. I mean we've talked about the diminishing supply of bitcoin where it's supply on exchanges and even on these OTC deaths have been getting gobbled up by treasuries and asset managers and banks and companies and you know, even retail traders. And those supplies have been dwindling. And I think that we can get a little bit of a supply crunch here that could allow bitcoin to have a nice move to the upside and probably lead to new all time highs.
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TiVo
Yeah, and that's again just in the bitcoin market and the momentum continues in the altcoin space with Tradfi. So friend of the program, Eric Bloomberg, friend of Bloomberg Intelligence saying that now he's seeing the, he's seeing 100% odds now for the S1s that are waiting for the formal green light. Basically a lot of jargon of saying these, these ETFs are coming down the pipeline. I think soul the sole ETF was kind of the front runner. Brendan, what, what have you. I know you kind of brought that link in for the news article when you went through it. What did you see there?
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Brendan
Yeah, it's basically what he's saying is that after you look at all the revisions and the new forms that have been submitted, he's basically saying that we've gone from a 95% chance of approval to basically out 100. He's like this stuff is, it's, it's on the chopping block like waiting to get approved. And he's like it's not a matter of like will if these things get approved. He's like when are they going to get approved? And that's the kind of the state of where the stage of where these ETFs are at is. He's literally just waiting for the approval itself because that's where they all are sitting. And one of the interesting things that I saw is that he was saying it's more than just, it's more than just like Solana, I think he was saying litecoin and XRP were also thrown into that same kind of territory where he's saying they're essentially waiting for imminent approval. And so he was throwing Litecoin, Solana and XRP all into the same boat and saying these things are essentially sitting at 100% of approval and we're just waiting for it to happen and it could happen at any day now. So that's what we're seeing on the back end. And I think as an investor, you got to be a little bit excited about that because these are the kind of things that could lead to a lot of upside. And it was interesting because I saw him going back and forth by him. It was, it wasn't James, it was Eric from Bloomberg Intelligence. And Eric was responding to a couple of people's comments and replies to him saying, is this going to cause a big crash? This is going to be bearish. And he was just tearing people apart in the comment section of his tweets, being like, imagine how stupid you have to be. And imagine this and that. And he's like, you guys don't understand. And for, for people who aren't aware. Eric Baltunus and James Safart are the lead ETF analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. I would go far, so far as to say they might not say this. I would say, I think that they're the lead ETF analysts in the world. I think that they are the best at what they do personally. And so when you have these people giving their opinions about the likelihood of these ETFs and then the kind of cause and effect that they could have afterwards and then kind of just like, I don't want to say like mocking, but they're kind of just annihilating anyone who's being like, this is going to be this huge bearish catalyst. He's like, that's not really what these are or how they should behave. And so it looks like a really good scenario. Now, again, we're not saying these things can't have like selling pressure and that they can't ever be bearish and that they can't have outflows, like that stuff's natural. But to say that it's a bearish catalyst for like a whole stem of downside is I think the, like, by far the least likely scenario. And that the whole point of these things being created is for accumulation and that's what's likely going to happen here, is that when these things get approved, there's going to be accumulation. And I'm just looking at it as an interesting opportunity because I think, you know, Litecoin I'm not as interested in, but I think you could look at Solana or xrp and I think you could look at either of those and say, hey, these, these could potentially be some pretty big catalysts to get these things running again.
- [24:47]
TiVo
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. And the, the fact that the SEC chair just keeps talking crypto. One of the tweets I saw was, crypto is his number one priority right now. So you kind of just throw that into the mix. And again, it's a zoom out type of mentality of where's the momentum going from regulation to price action to ETFs to TradFi to treasury companies. It's all crypto. It's all crypto related. And not only is it just project related, it's stablecoin related. And I did have a video. I always appreciate when we see kind of the leaders that are, you know, there was what, the crypto summit and all the stuff happening in the White House, the administration, and you see, you know, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, you see Vlad there, you see the Winklevoss twins from Gemini, sponsors of the show. And I think it's cool to see them at the big events, but I think what's even cooler is when they're. There's not necessarily a big event to be had, but there's talks in the chambers from Congress and the Senate, and you see these guys down there, and I think Brian Armstrong is really one of the top ones that spends a ton of time in D.C. and then he. He kind of does these little videos, these roundtable videos, just kind of filling in people. And so, I mean, it's just a shame that Riverside's letting us down today because it was a nice minute clip. I'm gonna. I tried to share it, but I don't think anything's coming up. Let me see if we can hear the sound. I'm gonna play the sound real quick. Brendan, can you hear this?
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Brendan
No.
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TiVo
No. Okay, so basically, yeah, we. We tried it one last time, but Riverside's. Riverside's letting us down today, sadly. So basically it was Brian Armstrong and he was. He's back there fighting the bank. So the big banks want to take away your stablecoin rewards. And the summary of it was, hey, this legislation has already been agreed to and passed in the Genius act, but the big banks are still lobbying and they're Sending their anti crypto army. I'm sure it's led by friend of the, not friend of the program, enemy of the program, Liz Warren, who's definitely trying to repeal a lot of this stuff because again, if it takes probably a level two, it's not, it doesn't, it's not that hard. But it takes a level 2, level 3 crypto investor to figure out like hey, if you have Robinhood Gold or if you have, you know, Coinbase or Gemini accounts and you can go and find their market funds that are given off 4, 5, 6% and Coinbase is starting to advertise the, you know, the 8 to 10 percents and I'm sure Gemini and Kraken are going to start coming out with, you know, different products. Once this, you know, really goes and gets passed, the big banks are in trouble because again, you know, your money market funds are going to go with rates. And so as rates come down, the money market funds are going to start dipping. They're already below 4. A year ago it was 4, you could get a money market fund at like 4, 2, 4, 10. Now they're at 3, 8 and they're just going to keep going down. And so that capital is going to want to flow somewhere else eventually, whether It's Nvidia, the MAG7, Bitcoin, all coins or if this stablecoin legislation get passed and there's new products around crypto rails to give people rewards. I mean that's, it's like it's finally you're a part of the system instead of strictly just being the product.
- [28:03]
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- [28:47]
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- [29:18]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, spot on, man. And we're seeing that that system just continue to grow and one of the big things that came our way, and it's funny because we've gone back and forth on this, like we want to get a tutorial out as soon as possible for anything that's brand new. And one of the big ones that came onto our radar is this aerodrome and Coinbase integration, where Coinbase is saying, we are going to be integrating the aerodrome decentralized exchange directly into our Coinbase centralized exchange interface. Now, for the average user, what this means is that you're essentially going to be uncapped on what you can trade, so long as it trades on Ethereum. And if you have a decentralized exchange integration, you can now trade just about any single coin within the Ethereum or the base ecosystem, which is really cool. So this is going to be an interesting thing. And again, I would say it's a pretty big thing for Aerodrome getting a bump in volume and activity. And you have the entire user base of Coinbase being opened up now to Aerodrome to go through their system. And it's a win win. You know, Aerodrome is getting more users and activity. Coinbase now allows their customers to get access to, you know, tens of thousands of different altcoins that they could want to choose from. And it's a win win situation. So that's going to be rolling out. And it had been rolling out to limited members and it was a little bit weird because, you know, we went back and forth like, you know, I've had a Coinbase account since like 2017 and I've used them and I hold a decent amount of money on there and I never got access to it. And we were originally going to go make a video and you're like, hey, you know, this got rolled out. I see it on my end. I was like, I don't see that. And you were sending me links and I didn't have access and it was restricted from me.
- [31:03]
TiVo
Well, listen, listen, we're a team here, Brendan, and we can still say that the crypto one on one podcast had premium inside access. You're right, we did. As a team. Listen, who, listen, credit to me for getting it. Sure, we can single me out all we want. But that's not what it's about. It's about the team. And the Crypto 101 podcast team had insider information for everybody a month ago, about four weeks ago that I had access and I just went to you, I was like, hey, we need a tutorial. And you're like, I don't see it. And I went to Brian. I, I really was the only one. I was. Which was, which was cool, I guess. Similar to me getting the Robin Hood credit card. Remember, online is like nobody was able to get the credit card. I've had it for like a year. So I don't know, man. Maybe I got some secret sauce. Which is all the more reason why you want to subscribe and listen to the show. So again, if, if you're new here, on the bottom right you see the logo, you hit the subscribe button, throw us a thumbs up. It really, really helps us grow the show, continue to do this for free and give you amazing Crypto alpha because again, we had early access to this a month ago. I was playing around with it. It is very cool. I mean it, basically, it's one of those things where, oh, when's Coinbase going to add this, this token or this coin? It's very easy to learn and you can go trade. You know, obviously, you know, I'm just going to throw out a number 5x the amount of projects with this Dex Dex via Aerodrome. And I think that again, that's the future of these crypto rails and merging it with kind of the software of that baselayer.com or the app to be able just people want easy access. People want. And the easier the access you can get it, the more, you know, liquidity you're going to open up. And that's the same with crypto, that's the same with stocks. And that's why I keep looking into this. You know, the crypto bringing stocks on chain, it's just, it's really just a liquidity unlock. So it's going to be really, really interesting to keep watching something that you were monitoring. Heather moving tons of Bitcoin, 8,888 Bitcoin worth a billion into the reserve wallet on chain.
- [32:57]
Brendan
Yeah, this is fascinating. We said this at the very beginning, but like you're seeing these different asset managers and banks and like everyone just trying to get their hands on bitcoin in crypto. And this is just another example of it. I mean Tether is the largest stablecoin. They're primarily from the Ethereum ecosystem. But even now they're looking at how fast these DAX and Treasury companies and all of them are accumulating and they're saying maybe we should get our hands on, on a good amount of Bitcoin because this stuff is, it is going fast. I mean, this stuff is a fire sale on the shelves. And Tether, again, primarily like, doesn't work with bitcoin a whole lot, if at all. They're saying let's go ahead and just get $1 billion worth of this. And I would assume that they're going to continue to accumulate that in the long term as well, because they agree, you know, you can be in the Ethereum ecosystem and you can still believe in support in Bitcoin. So again, this just feeds into this idea. I mean, a billion dollars is a lot to just be bought off the shelf within a single buying opportunity, let alone essentially your first one. And so now what we see is that Tether is creating their own Bitcoin reserve. And you can see it on chain and it's happening. But Tether now has a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin that they're holding. And again, I think we're going to continue to see more of this, and we've been saying this now since kind of the start of this year, but like we have, and I think we will continue to see this kind of adoption. It's going to happen from companies inside of crypto. It's going to happen from Treasuries, it's going to happen from banks, asset managers, governments, companies in the Fortune 500. You know, we see it happening there and this is just going to be a continued theme as we move into the future and what really happens here. And maybe we'll talk about this on our next one because we can't show the charts, but we'll show the charts again for Bitcoin and Ethereum's exchange reserves and their OTC reserves. And those things are dwindling. So I think at some point we have to get into a little bit of a supply shock and those supply shocks cause these really sharp upwards moves in the price action of, of these select cryptos. So it's certainly something to keep an eye out on here. And again, I just don't see it going anywhere soon.
- [35:13]
TiVo
Yeah, and we missed this at the top of the show because I got thrown a curveball with the technical difficulties. But Tether's not the only one moving Bitcoin around. We got BlackRock moving some Ethereum and some Bitcoin, some decently sized numbers. Yeah, it's all different numbers kind of all over the place on some of the. The data. We didn't have time. It was this morning that it was flying out. We couldn't verify, but it was like definitely over about $30 million in Bitcoin and $300 million of ETH. And they moved it onto Coinbase, specifically Coinbase Prime. So then kind of you could take. There was a fork in the road. Are they moving it to sell or are they moving it for storage? Because Coinbase is, you know, does a lot of the storing for these larger brokerages for the ETFs. I'm leaning I would lean towards its first for storage. What about yourself?
- [36:02]
Brendan
So, yeah, so something interesting to understand for the general audience here is that most of the time people look at money going to an exchange and they view it as a negative thing. In this instance, Coinbase is actually one of the primary custodians for BlackRock. So when BlackRock has a bunch of crypto, Coinbase is one of the primary custodians. So it's not necessarily. That doesn't have to be a bad thing in this case. That could actually just them being. Sending Bitcoin over to one of their primary custodians and it's just as simple as that, where it's being stored there. And BlackRock knows Coinbase is one of the best companies at what they do. And if anyone knows how to store this stuff properly, I think Coinbase has a close to flawless reputation. So yeah, a little bit of clarification there in that in this specific example does not have to be a bad thing.
- [36:57]
TiVo
We'll skip some things because I think some things just need to be seen. I. We are doing a second live this week. It'll be Friday. I'm gonna bring on Brian and Joe and you know, Brendan, you're always welcome if you want to join, but it's going to be in the afternoon Friday because I'll be traveling, I'll be. I'll be in Vegas. We'll do it a little later than usual on Friday, but still gonna do it. And some of these topics that we don't do today will bump to Friday, but we're going to give you what we think we. You need to know for the week. An update, Brendan. Let's save that one for last. So ftx, the FTX dump. Could it be an FTX pump? There's. There's some distributions coming out from the FTX bankruptcy. So over $5 billion will be repaid to creditors and stable coins this week, again, you know, all this stuff is, is basically crypto that was quote unquote lost in the bankruptcy. And then now that they're getting it back, it's a creditor, you know, you're getting back your, your money in a sense of, I mean they probably, we don't know, I guess the individual deficit of what happened, but you're probably getting pennies on the dollar sadly for, for what, you know, what was in FTX. But there's still some large amounts of money, 5 billion overall. And this was invested in crypto and these people had to sit on the sidelines and you know, hopefully they had other investments, you know, spread out. FTX wasn't their only bag, but you know, this stuff was in crypto before. Is it going to go back in? Maybe not all of it, maybe some of it, but again, possibly a liquidity event. What do you think?
- [38:27]
Brendan
Yeah. So the benefit of this and the way that they're doing it here is that you're right in the sense that they're not getting their full amount back. From my understanding and the way that I understand how this works is that they're getting the amount of money that they lost at the time of the event vent and they're not getting what it has appreciated to or anything like that. So that's the first half. The second half is that they're getting this given to them in stable coins, which is I think the best case scenario. Because if it was given to them in Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana or in the cryptos that they lost, then what are they going to do? Well, they're likely to go and sell that onto the market and then you really only see this as there cannot be buying pressure, there can only be selling pressure. That's not the case because they're getting it in stablecoins. So if they cause selling pressure from stablecoins that does not impact the price action of all the cryptos that we know, but if they choose to buy, then obviously that will have a price action on these altcoins. So again, they can either sell off their stable coins and that doesn't impact price, or they can buy cryptos with that and that will impact price in a positive way. So I think this is probably one of the best ways of doing this. I know that we wish that everyone got their full amount back and everyone wants that, but the main takeaway is that this is going to be one of the best case scenarios of what could have happened. Right. And that's what we are saying is that this could have gone down a lot of different ways. And I think that this is probably one of the best results that we could have seen outside of everyone getting all of their money back and in stable coins or in US dollars. So overall, we do not have to look at this as one of those potential sell off events or sell off catalysts, because it's just hard to imagine that result from the way that this is all happening with them being given stable coins and not underlying cryptos or assets themselves.
- [40:25]
TiVo
Yeah. And again, I just think it's a liquidity event. Right. You just toss it in the same category. It's, hey, we've got ETFs, we've got rate cuts, we've got creditors from FTX getting 5 billion. It's all stuff that we're going to continue to monitor with you. And again, we apologize for the technical difficulties. But to finish off the show, we're going to end on a high note and maybe we'll even share our screen so you could see it. Brendan, I think you can see that now that we've went over to Riverside competitor Zoom and everything's working. We do love Riverside, but they got to fix that because that's not fair to you guys. Listeners. So we apologize, but we covered this on Friday, the world's highest iq. And again, that is up to debate, depending on how you track that measure. I'm not much of an iqo. Oh, yes.
- [41:08]
Brendan
Can we just talk about his Twitter handle being his name and then IQ276. Can we just talk about that for a second?
- [41:16]
TiVo
Sure we can. I mean, he's obviously, he wants everybody to know his iq. I don't know if you've ever, it kind of reminds me, I guess, when you're in high school and Everybody's going on SAT scores and, you know, 70 to 80 of the people don't want to talk about it. And then there's 20 of the people that want to talk about it and want to know your score just because they want you to ask them their score because they know probably their score is much higher than yours. So it seems to give off the same vibes there. But we covered it on, on Friday that he was pro bitcoin and, and as the, you know, I guess one of the smartest people in the world. That was pretty exciting and a fun little fun fact. But there was an update over the weekend. Not only is he pro bitcoin and he's a believer in Jesus, but he has transferred all his assets into bitcoin Everything he possesses is now in bitcoin, but also everything that he possesses, according to him, belongs to the Lord Jesus and will be used for his glory. So it's like, I think I had this. Now that we can share the screen. I think I had, like, a funny little tweet there. That one was smartest person in the world you're selling. But I think I had another one and it was like, bitcoin handshake Jesus. What. What are your thoughts?
- [42:29]
Brendan
Yeah, man. I mean, listen, you know, regardless of whether he's the smartest or one of them, like, obviously is a pretty high iq, pretty smart guy in general, you know, I'm all here for. You know, I think the more that we can accumulate, the better. And I like having intelligent people on the side of bitcoin. I think it's certainly better than the other case scenario, which is where you have all the smart, wealthy people not being on the side of crypt. Now we're kind of shifting where it seems like all the smart, wealthy people are very clearly on the side of crypto. So, yes, big pro for us.
- [43:02]
TiVo
Yes. Couldn't agree more. There it is. The Jesus handshake. Bitcoin, I think the. Yeah, if you can be.
- [43:07]
Brendan
What else do you need?
- [43:08]
TiVo
I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I'm just peace and love, whatever religion and creed you. You are. But yeah, I mean, if Jesus wants to be on team Bitcoin and the smartest IQ person in the world wants to be on Bitcoin, we. We welcome them with open arms, as I'm sure Michael Saylor would as well. But we'll wrap it up there. Again, it's. It's a huge apology. I'm the producer, so I do take responsibility. But, yeah, our softwares just weren't working today. But we appreciate everybody who's tuned in. We appreciate the listenership. We'll be back later this week with another episode. I will try to run some tests to make sure that this doesn't happen again on Riverside. And if there is issues, we'll do jump over to Zoom or something else. But we really appreciate everybody listening. Thanks so much. Enjoy the rest of your day and we'll see you guys later this week. Goodbye, everybody.
- [44:05]
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