Crypto 101: Crypto Rundown – SOL ETF Odds Approach 100%, BlackRock Moves BTC & ETH, & FTX Pays Out $5 Billion!

Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman

Date: October 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Crypto 101’s ongoing “Crypto Rundown” is a jam-packed guide to the latest seismic shifts and signals in the digital asset landscape. Hosts Brendan Viehman and TiVo break down a week of volatile price action, institutional moves, ETF approvals on the horizon—especially the much-anticipated Solana ETF—and headline news like BlackRock crypto transfers and a massive $5B FTX payout to creditors. The episode is designed for active retail investors, with a practical, chart-based tone and the hosts’ signature banter and optimism about the future of crypto adoption.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Recap: End of the September Slump, Optimism Ahead

• The market has rallied off a late-September pullback, with Bitcoin leading the charge after a particularly tough 10-day stretch.
  • "We're exiting out of the worst 10 day stretch in the market into seasonally the best area of the market as we go into October and November." – Brendan (00:43)
• Historically, October-November is a strong period for crypto, with the hosts encouraging listeners to “zoom out,” see the macro trend, and position for upside.
• Fear & Greed index remains “neutral” at 43, reflecting market hesitancy but also underlying resilience.
  • "It's been that way for, for a couple weeks... but always good to check in." – TiVo (16:44)

2. Technical Analysis: Setting the Stage for a Bull Run?

• Bitcoin’s Chart:
  • Prior resistance zones (around 109k) have flipped into new support.
  • Anchored VWAP from April acts as robust support.
  • Current price action is described as a “bull flag”—short-term resistance but high upside potential.
  • "A falling channel in the scheme of a move upwards is identified as a bull flag, which... is a bullish continuation pattern." – Brendan (09:10)
• Bitcoin dominance has increased since mid-September, with altcoins experiencing greater volatility.
  • "Altcoins here... move at around 2 to 3x the volatility of Bitcoin." – Brendan (14:28)
• Odds on PolyMarket predict a 68% chance of Bitcoin hitting 125k this year.

3. Macro Environment & Institutional Adoption

• ETF Approval Odds Near Certainty
  • Top ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart (Bloomberg Intelligence) now peg SOL, LTC, and XRP ETF approvals at virtually 100%.
  • "We've gone from a 95% chance of approval to basically out 100. He's like, this stuff is... waiting to get approved." – Brendan (21:36)
  • ETF approvals are seen as massive accumulation opportunities, not bear catalysts.
• Regulations and Stablecoin Wars
  • SEC Chair now publicly declares crypto his #1 focus.
  • Ongoing “anti-crypto” legislative push from certain senators; big banks lobbying to suppress stablecoin yields.
  • "Big banks are in trouble because again, you know, your money market funds are going to go with rates... that capital is going to want to flow somewhere else eventually." – TiVo (27:28)
  • Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, is heavily involved in D.C. lobbying and education.

4. Major Institutional Moves

• Tether (USDT) acquired 8,888 Bitcoin (~$1B), creating its own BTC reserve.
  • "This stuff is a fire sale on the shelves... and Tether now has a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin that they're holding." – Brendan (33:22)
• BlackRock moved $30M in BTC and $300M in ETH onto Coinbase Prime—interpreted as custodial storage, not a sell.
  • "In this instance, Coinbase is actually one of the primary custodians for BlackRock... so it's not necessarily a bad thing." – Brendan (36:03)
• Underlying theme: a “race to accumulate” as institutional supply on exchanges diminishes and on-chain reserves dwindle.

5. Major Product Integration & Access

• Coinbase & Aerodrome DEX Integration
  • Coinbase to integrate Aerodrome (a decentralized exchange) directly into their interface.
  • Retail users will get access to a much wider selection of tokens/trades, greatly increasing market liquidity.
  • "If you have a decentralized exchange integration, you can now trade just about any single coin within the Ethereum or the base ecosystem, which is really cool." – Brendan (29:41)

6. FTX Bankruptcy: $5 Billion Creditor Payout

• Over $5B will be returned to FTX creditors, distributed in stablecoins.
• Unlike previous fears, this is not regarded as a market-selling catalyst; payouts in stables let users choose whether to buy back into crypto, potentially creating new demand.
  • "If they cause selling pressure from stablecoins that does not impact the price action of all the cryptos... but if they choose to buy, then obviously that will have a price action on these altcoins." – Brendan (38:57)
• Hosts see it as a positive liquidity event rather than a bearish overhang.

7. Cultural/Meme Moment: Crypto Endorsement from World's Highest IQ

• The self-proclaimed “highest IQ” individual (IQ276) announced all assets are now in Bitcoin; described as pro-Bitcoin and deeply religious.
  • "Not only is he pro bitcoin and he's a believer in Jesus, but he has transferred all his assets into bitcoin." – TiVo (41:15)
• The hosts see this as emblematic of the growing convergence of high-profile and high-intellect supporters for Bitcoin.
  • "It seems like all the smart, wealthy people are very clearly on the side of crypto." – Brendan (42:29)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Macro Cyclicality:
  "October, November, December is the best period for the markets with November being the best month, October being... the second best month and historically just a really, really solid one." – Brendan (18:43)
• On ETF Approval:
  "It's not a matter of like will if these things get approved. It's like when are they going to get approved." – Brendan (21:35)
• On Institutional Activity:
  "A billion dollars is a lot to just be bought off the shelf within a single buying opportunity... Tether now has a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin they’re holding." – Brendan (33:22)
• On the FTX Payout:
  "This could have gone down a lot of different ways. And I think that this is probably one of the best results that we could have seen..." – Brendan (38:57)
• On Crypto’s Social Momentum:
  "Obviously is a pretty high IQ, pretty smart guy in general. I like having intelligent people on the side of bitcoin... Now we're kind of shifting where it seems like all the smart, wealthy people are... on the side of crypto." – Brendan (42:29)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:43: Intro and market overview; exiting September weakness
• 04:06: Bitcoin technical analysis; bull flag potential
• 16:04: Macro factors, interest rates; M2 money supply vs. Bitcoin
• 20:54: ETF approvals and analyst outlook
• 29:17: Coinbase-Aerodrome decentralized exchange integration
• 32:56: Tether accumulates $1B in Bitcoin
• 35:13: BlackRock’s BTC/ETH transfers; custodial nuance
• 37:50: FTX $5B creditor payouts; implications for price
• 41:08: Meme/culture: World’s highest IQ all-in on Bitcoin
• 44:05: Outro and upcoming episodes

Tone & Format

• Language/Tone: Direct, upbeat, data-driven, occasionally playful (especially on meme moments).
• Style: Alternating between actionable technical and macro insights, and news digest commentary.
• Utility: The episode is packed with tactical trading context, big-picture thinking for HODLers, and identification of forces shaping the next cycle.

TL;DR Key Takeaways

• Crypto markets are recovering from the historically worst period of the year, with optimism running high for Q4.
• SOL, XRP, and LTC ETFs are nearly guaranteed imminent approval, signaling the next leg of institutional adoption.
• BlackRock and Tether are aggressively accumulating BTC and ETH, often via custodial storage, not sale.
• Newly unlocked FTX creditor funds ($5B) enter the market as stables, creating potential new buy-side pressure, not sell pressure.
• Major U.S. regulatory attention intensifies as the stablecoin/yield wars heat up.
• The cultural narrative finds new fuel as even the “world’s smartest” join the Bitcoin bandwagon.